Crocs'(NASDAQ: CROX) recent performance has been a story of contrasting fortunes, with its flagship brand thriving, while the HeyDude brand, acquired in 2022, has struggled to gain traction. The company's stock has experienced a 27% fall in the last six months to around $112 (Dec 20).
With just three weeks left in the year (as of this writing), the S&P 500 is up nearly 27% in 2024. To illustrate how great this gain is, if someone invested $10,000 and gained 27% annually, they'd have over $100,000 in just 10 years.
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Financial performance shows revenue growth and improved margins, with Crocs repurchasing shares and paying down debt, enhancing shareholder value. Exciting partnerships with brands like McDonald's have driven brand momentum, although the HEYDUDE brand continues to lag in performance and enthusiasm. Despite risks like potential trade tensions, Crocs' strong brand and strategic marketing moves fo...
Crocs' post-pandemic growth has slowed, making it less suited for long-term growth investors but appealing as a two-year value play with a projected EV CAGR of ~15%. The valuation model assumes 3.5% revenue growth, EBITDA margin at 26%, and EV-to-EBITDA expansion to 9.5, yielding a December 2026 EV of $10.783 billion. International expansion presents opportunities but also risks, as cultural ad...
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Crocs stock dipped ~19% despite better-than-expected results due to lower HEYDUDE performance expectations and EBIT margin pressure for 2025. Management's focus on brand building over performance marketing for HEYDUDE will likely lead to higher SG&A expenses and slower revenue growth in the near term. Historical guidance cuts for HEYDUDE raise concerns about market perception of future guidance...
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