Dividends matter. So do losses. Look at a couple of charts and call it a day. Most people don't want to go through all the history, but we can sum up over a decade in a few images. When we compare prices and book value over time, we can see that the huge dividends were not enough. They still are not enough.
The BDC sector has been hammered—but opportunity may finally be knocking. Two high-yield giants now trade at big discounts to NAV. I compare them side by side and share the scenarios in which I think each makes sense to buy.
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation Schedules Fourth Fiscal Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call for November 18, 2025.
Blackstone Secured Lending and Morgan Stanley Direct Lending are high-quality BDCs facing potential dividend cuts due to falling coverage ratios. BXSL's fundamentals remain strong, but tight dividend coverage, high floating-rate exposure, and significant upcoming debt maturities raise concerns about a near-term cut. MSDL, despite robust liquidity and investment-grade ratings, has seen declining...
BDCs have already experienced a notable correction. The sector median P/NAV metric indicates ~12% discount to NAV. Many players are priced even below that.
14 BDCs have base dividend coverage levels between 100% and 105%. 16 BDCs have them already below 100%. Given the unfavorable future earnings outlook, a system-wide BDC dividend cutting process is very likely to start quite soon.
I expect the Fed to cut rates soon, with markets pricing in an 89% chance of a 25bps cut this month. Ongoing and future rate cuts will pressure SOFR-linked assets, especially BDCs, causing yield compression and likely dividend reductions. BDC dividend risks are high due to lower loan yields, thin dividend coverage, and limited capacity to offset falling income.
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