Carnival Stock

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Results. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein, our CFO, David Bernstein; and remotely, our Chair, Micky Arison. Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations.

We'll be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income and related statistics for all which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated. A reconciliation to U.S. GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices, yields and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency unless we know otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

Thanks, Beth, and good morning, everyone. Once again, we closed out another excellent quarter with revenues, yields and reported net income, all reaching new highs while customer deposits once again set a record. Strong execution delivered approximately $2 billion to the bottom line, exceeding our guidance by $100 million with both revenue and costs contributing to the outperformance.

On the revenue side, yields increased nearly 2.5%, more than 1 point better than expected. The improvement in booking trends we highlighted on our last call continued to build throughout the quarter with better closing demand translating into higher revenues. That momentum also enabled us to raise our yield expectations for the fourth quarter. And on the cost side, our teams continued to find opportunities to operate more efficiently.

Excluding fuel, unit costs came in 1 point better than guidance for the quarter. And to date, we have improved our full year expectations by more than 1 point even after absorbing continued pressure from higher-than-expected inflation. Fuel consumption also came in 3 points better than expected as our teams continue to find ways to use less, which is better for the environment, better for our bottom line and ultimately, the best way to manage fuel costs. Taken together, we've generated more than $150 million of operational improvement since our June guidance fully offsetting the impact of higher fuel prices that we now expect.

Yes, fuel can be a volatile input cost with a track record of prices going up and down, but amidst that noise, let's not lose sight of our underlying operational improvement. What matters most over the long term is our ability to continually improve the actual performance of the business. generating more demand, managing our booking curve for maximum revenue, operating more efficiently and ultimately producing more earnings and higher returns.

And while it's still early, we are beginning to capture opportunities embedded in our PROPEL targets sooner than expected, leveraging our unmatched scale, sharpening commercial execution, investing where we generate outsized returns, and advancing technology to enhance revenue and control costs. This includes putting AI to work across our commercial systems to help our teams make better decisions and provide more personalized experiences for our guests, automating more of how we operate shoreside and identifying new efficiencies in how we manage our vessels.

With 2026 largely on the books, our retention is turning to 2027 and beyond. For full year 2027, we are already half booked with both occupancy and pricing at record levels. Bookings taken over our third quarter solidified this position as we saw very healthy increases compared to last year's levels. And while the booking disruption we experienced this spring extended into the first quarter of 2027, Q1 bookings have also rebounded meaningfully over the past 3 months, reinforcing our view that the impact is temporary. Demand remains broad-based, including very healthy demand for our peak summer European deployments.

2028 is also off to an excellent start at higher occupancy and even higher prices year-over-year, and our booking curve is further out than it has ever been at this point in the year. Customer deposits tell a similar story. They reached a third quarter record of approximately $7.6 billion, up about 7% despite flat capacity growth over the next 12 months. with demand continuing to grow well ahead of our intentionally measured capacity growth, we have an opportunity to keep managing the booking curve for price, and that is exactly what our strategy is designed to do, drive more earnings and higher returns from our existing asset base with relentless focus and discipline.

One of the most visible examples is our destination strategy. Celebration Key recently marked its first anniversary, having welcomed almost 2.5 million guests in its first year alone. The guest response has been exceptional. Celebration Key is resonating with our loyal guests giving them another compelling reason to sell with us again while attracting new to cruise guests as well, and we are only just beginning to realize its potential.

With the second peer now open, Celebration Key is expected to welcome approximately 3.5 million guests next year with 31 ships calling versus 26 this year. Its reach is also expanding beyond Carnival Cruise Line, with Princess joining next month, followed by select calls from AIDA and Costa late next year. And celebration Key is just one part of what is becoming an increasingly differentiated destination portfolio.

Our recently expanded experiences at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Isla Tropicale, Roatan have already welcomed approximately 250,000 guests each with very positive guest response. We have made these amazing beach experiences even better and available to millions more guests. We can now pair the idelic natural beauty of RelaxAway long one of our highest rated beach experiences with the high energy experience of Celebration Key, giving our guests 2 completely different beach experiences on the same itinerary and further differentiating what only we can offer.

In fact, next year, 35% of Carnival Cruise Line's Caribbean capacity will feature itineraries visiting both of these incredible destinations on the same crews, and there is more to come as we continue to develop our destination footprint differentiate the vacation experiences we offer and make our existing fleet even more valuable. We are applying the same return-focused mindset across the rest of the business. We're finding new ways to deepen guest loyalty and increase lifetime value.

In the year following Carnival Cruise Lines June 2025 announcement of its new loyalty program, co-branded credit card issuances increased 20% even before the new benefits took effect. And since the program went live September 1, issuances have accelerated significantly, more than tripling from pre-announcement levels. And while the program has only been live for a few weeks, thousands of members have already redeemed tens of millions of points on everything from a drink on board to a suite on Carnival Celebration exactly the kind of flexibility and choice the new program was designed to provide.

We're also continuing to invest selectively in our fleet. Carnival Festivale enters service in the Caribbean in May in time for the summer season and begins contributing to our results in the second half of the year. Our mid-life modernization programs continue to progress with additional vessels planned for AIDA and Holland America next year. We will also complete a major upgrade of Cunard's flagship Queen Mary 2, as the world's only ocean liner providing regular transatlantic service, it is a one-of-a-kind asset and our investment is designed to ensure it continues to generate attractive returns for decades to come.

And we continue to optimize deployment toward markets where we see the greatest opportunity. Next year, for example, we are leaning even further into our successful Northern European deployments where guest interest continues to grow in colocations, cooler weather destinations and outdoor activities like hiking, exploring the Fords of Norway and enjoying the Northern Lights.

Importantly, we are doing this in the context of relatively flat overall capacity growth, meaning that we are actively shifting our deployment mix toward the opportunities we find most attractive. As a result, in 2027, Europe will, for the first time, tied with the Caribbean as our largest deployment region, each representing 34% of our mix. Of course, the Caribbean remains an important part of our strategy and will benefit from the continued expansion of our Paradise collection portfolio even as we diversify our footprint more globally. And our diversified footprint is further strengthened by our industry-leading presence in Alaska, the ultimate colocation.

Our advantage there extends beyond cruising to our integrated land and sea experiences supported by thousands of hotel and lodge rooms, 20 glass stone railcars and the largest fleet of motor coaches in all of Alaska. Together, these assets give our guests unparalleled access to experience the extraordinary natural beauty, culture and wildlife of the great land in ways that are difficult to replicate.

Taking a step back, these are all different initiatives across different brands and geographies, but the strategy behind them is consistent, create differentiated demand, improve revenue generation and drive attractive returns on the capital we deploy. And clearly, those efforts are showing up in our financial results. despite the significant fuel price headwind this year, we expect to finish 2026 with even more brands generating mid-teens or higher returns on invested capital than last year. That is meaningful progress and we still see considerable runway ahead with each of our brands on a path towards higher returns.

The consistency of our performance is also translating into increasingly durable cash flow giving us the ability to invest in the business, strengthen the balance sheet and return capital to shareholders at the same time. And yes, we are doing all the three. We continue to invest in the highest return opportunities across our brands and destinations. We continue to reduce debt and strengthen our financial position and just 6 months into our share repurchase program, we have already bought back about $1.2 billion of stock alongside our ongoing dividend. That balance is important.

Our objective is not simply to grow. It is to grow earnings and returns in a disciplined way while increasing the amount of cash we can return to shareholders over time. And importantly, we have the best team in all of travel and leisure making it happen. None of what we have accomplished or what lies ahead will be possible without the dedication of our more than 160,000 team members, both ship and shore. I want to thank them for everything they do every day to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every place we visit, life we touch and ocean we sail.

I also want to thank our loyal guests, our investors, our travel agent partners, our destination and shipbuilding partners and all of our stakeholders for their continued support. We have tremendous momentum, an incredible team and significant opportunities still ahead of us.

With that, I'll turn the call over to David to walk you through the quarter and our guidance in more detail.

Thank you, Josh. I'll begin with our third quarter results, then cover our updated full year guidance and several considerations or 2027 before closing with capital allocation. We delivered record revenues and yields with third quarter net income exceeding our June guidance by over $100 million or $0.08 per share.

The outperformance versus June guidance was driven by 3 factors: revenue was the primary driver for our outperformance, contributing $0.05 per share. Yields increased nearly 2.5% year-over-year on top of almost 5% growth in last year's third quarter. Strong close-in demand and robust onboard spending drove yield 1.2 percentage points above June guidance.

Second, continued cost discipline drove additional upside. Cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD increased only 1.8% and year-over-year, 100 basis points better than June guidance, contributing $0.02 per share. Importantly, nearly all the third quarter cruise cost savings flow through to our full year September guidance. Third, the remaining $0.01 per share of favorability came from further improvements in fuel consumption, where we delivered a nearly 4% year-over-year reduction on top of the over 5% reduction in last year's third quarter as well as the full year 2025.

Now turning to our full year September guidance. We expect operational improvement of more than $150 million in net income compared to June guidance driven by improvements in yields cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD and fuel consumption, overcoming a $150 million impact from increased fuel prices. Our September guidance forecast yield growth of approximately 2.3%, which is over 0.5 point better than June guidance. We flowed through the $0.05 per share yield improvement from the third quarter and an additional $0.03 per share expected yield improvement for the fourth quarter for a total of $0.08 per share for the year.

For the fourth quarter, we now expect the year-over-year growth of approximately 1.7% over 3/4 of 1 point above our implied June guidance. On a normalized basis, adjusting for the impact of the new loyalty program accounting for Carnival Cruise Line, our fourth quarter yields are expected to be up approximately 2.3%, consistent with the year-over-year growth we saw in the third quarter. Cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up approximately 2.2% year-over-year, better than June guidance which includes the $0.02 per share cost savings I previously mentioned for the third quarter.

On a normalized basis, adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD are up approximately 1.1% after reflecting the timing of certain expenses between the years partial year operating expenses from 2 exclusive destinations and the impact of certain elevated logistics costs as a result of the disruption from the Middle East conflict. Putting the full year September guidance together, relative to June guidance, improved operating performance adds $0.12 per share $0.08 from yields, $0.02 from cruise costs, excluding fuel and $0.02 from fuel consumption and other items.

Share repurchases added $0.01 per share of EPS accretion, while higher fuel prices were an $0.11 per share headwind. However, the 26% reduction in fuel consumption per ALBD since 2019 helps to mitigate the impact of the fuel price increases as we consume less fuel. The lower consumption represents savings of nearly $750 million at September guidance fuel prices. As a result, Full year EPS guidance is now $2.24, up $0.02 from our previous guidance. Now a few things for you to consider for 2027. We are forecasting a capacity increase of 0.5% in 2027 compared to 2026.

As Josh indicated, we are in a strong position for 2027 with both occupancy and price at record levels. This is weighted to quarters 2 through 4 since the effects of the booking disruptions earlier this year, which impacted the second half of 2026 also carried heavily into bookings for the first quarter of 2027. While booking trends for the first quarter of 2027 have improved meaningfully over the past 3 months, we still expect the first quarter to reflect residual impacts from that disruption.

Of course, the team is working hard to increase demand across the board, including first quarter sailings and this gives us confidence in our ability to continue the momentum of our multiyear yield gains. On September 1, we successfully launched Carnival Cruise Line's new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards. Our guests are already enjoying the enhanced benefits of the new program with more flexibility in how they earn and redeem rewards and more ways to get value from their relationship with Carnival. We are very confident in the benefits this program will bring to our guests and to the company over time.

As I previously indicated, Carnival Rewards is expected to be cash flow positive from launch, although, the timing effect of revenue recognition creates a temporary yield headwind in the fourth quarter 2026 and fiscal year 2027. Under the accounting treatment we defer a portion of revenue equal to the value of benefits earned. As redemptions build revenue recognized upon redemption will eventually exceed new deferrals. Until 2028, when the impact turns positive, we do expect to have accounting-driven yield headwinds. We previously explained a 0.2 point impact for the full year 2026, all of which is from the 6-point impact in the fourth quarter of 2026. And for full year 2027, there will be an additional 0.4 point impact.

Now I'll finish with some comments on capital allocation. To date, we have opportunistically repurchased nearly $1.2 billion of stock, representing 45 million shares we are making meaningful progress towards our PROPEL target of distributing cash to our shareholders responsibly combining share repurchases with our expected fiscal year dividend payout, we will be returning nearly $2 billion to shareholders. Even with that level of capital return, we expect year-over-year improvement in our balance sheet and leverage metrics and our total debt is now below $24 billion, a far cry from our $36 billion peak in 2023.

During the quarter, we also used cash on hand to redeem $500 million of 7% notes which were among our highest cost debt instruments. Furthermore, during the quarter, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating, making it a second rating agency to assign the company an investment-grade rating following this upgrade, which allowed the collateral to be released, the company does not have any remaining secured debt. Our expected EBITDA of more than $7 billion provides the capacity to invest in the business, improve leverage and return capital to shareholders.

Operator, we're now ready to open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Robin Farley from UBS.

Just wanted to ask about something a little bit away from the results today, although my follow-up. I do have a question about the release. Just looking at the market, there's a transaction with an inclusive Caribbean resort chain that one would assume others in the industry may be considered or looked at. I don't know if you have any thoughts you can share maybe it's not about that specific portfolio, but just your thoughts about synergies or would something like that make sense for Carnival or just any view on that. And then I have a follow-up on the release.

Robin, well, first question, not even about us. All right. So I'll just talk about us, I won't talk about somebody else's transaction. I'd say I probably sound a little bit like a broken record here, but we are just laser-focused on improving our cruise business. We are very proudly a cruise company, and everything we do is to enhance the cruise experience for our guests. And so we -- our portfolio of brands, we feel we're in a great position given the momentum we've got and the things that we've got to come. to be able to improve the business on the assets that we've got.

Now clearly, I'm not saying we don't have land-based assets in our portfolio, we do, but they're really ancillary to the cruise experience, things like Celebration Key, RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and our unmatched position in Alaska. Those are all really bolt-ons to make the cruise product even better and they are high returning. We're focused on the returns. We're focused on the cruise business. So there you go.

Okay, great. And just for my follow-up, just the booking outlook in the release. I'm just curious if you can help clarify you talked about '27 price and load being at record levels. It didn't say higher, and that may be fine that may be part of the yield management strategy. But then in talking about '28, it does say higher occupancy and price. So I'm just wondering if I'm interpreting that right about 2027 that it's maybe at the same levels of...

No, no, 2027 is higher. I'm sorry, [indiscernible], on the pin. So sorry, '27 occupancy and price is higher.

Our next question today is coming from James Hardiman from Citi.

Congrats on a really strong and maybe even surprisingly strong quarter here. I guess my first question, I mean, it sounds like the last 3 months of bookings were really good for you guys, which is particularly noteworthy given the fact that the macro and the geopolitical headlines but really gotten any better. And I don't think airfare prices have gotten dramatically better.

So maybe help us connect those 2 dots. I mean do we think that some of this is specific to your business model where a lot of your customers are maybe closer to departure ports and so airfare doesn't matter as much or European customers care less. We've talked about that sort of distinction in the past. Europeans to European destinations and maybe Americans to your key destinations? Or do we think there's just fatigue with all of these headlines and people are saying, I'm going to go on my vacation hell or high water, and we're now beginning to see that.

Yes. No. I think all of those are pretty fair points, to be honest with you. I mean taking a step back, June was an inflection point in the booking momentum, and it was positive year-over-year, and then we saw a nice acceleration in both July and August. I think to some extent, there is a normalization of what the world is storing at people. There is a growing change in the mentality of Americans, which is just catching up to Europeans, as we've talked about before, the vacations are sacrosanct. And they will take them in good times and in bad. If you have a job, you get a break and you need that vacation.

And so we are an amazing value for people if the consumer confidence isn't great, if there is pressure from things like price of gasoline, if there's other inflation, if there's concerns about fill in the blank because that's all we hear about nowadays. And we're a great value. We give a great experience and we make it convenient for people. So we really do feel like our strategy is working. It can work in great times, and it can work in times that aren't so great, and that's what you're seeing now.

Got it. And then Josh, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the fact that Europe for the first time, will tie the Caribbean for the largest deployment region. It sounds like there's a bigger narrative there. I feel like I've been saying for a decade that eventually the pendulum might shift back towards Europe and at least for you guys, that's happening. So maybe speak to what you're seeing on both sides of the Atlantic, are you concerned about what's going on with respect to Caribbean capacity into 2027?

Well, I'll answer Europe question and then a Caribbean question. The Euro question is, this isn't new for us. This has been a growing piece of the business and the strategy, particularly in Northern Europe, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, which is just amazing destinations for both North Americans and Europeans. And so our brands have a great foothold there. We actually have more European sailings outside in the Med, and we love that position. It's also longer seasonality. We can push into the shoulders more because that's what guests are looking for, which fits well.

With respect to the Caribbean, I said this in different ways, I'll say give me 2 options. Option #1 is no growth in the Caribbean. Option #2 is, if you look at 2027, something like 37% growth over a 3-year period. I'm going to go with option A. Option A would make my life easier -- people's lives easier. But it's not taking away from the fact that the Caribbean is an amazing part of our portfolio. And we are absolutely committed to it forever. And hence, the investments that we've made in our Paradise collection, Carnival Cruise has been the leader in the Caribbean all year sailing forever, and we expect that to continue.

Did it face pressure when there's that kind of capacity coming at one time? Yes, it does. And we've seen it before, and we get through it. We just got through the third quarter of this year yields up I'd say far nicely. We're looking at the full year, up almost 3% on a normalized basis, including our Caribbean portfolio against the backdrop of a pretty volatile world. So I'd say all of that is fitting together really nicely.

The next question is coming from Brandt Montour from Barclays.

So back to 2027, I was just curious, Josh, if you want to kind of paint a picture on how the customer -- how your booking customer feels about booking that far out? And specifically related -- relating this year kind of 6 months into Iran looking at 1 year out versus 1 year ago, 6 months into tariffs looking out to '26. Have you seen any differences there? And then which brands or which cohorts are you seeing that differential?

Yes. I will get into specific brands and customer bases of the brands. But what I would say is every crisis is different. And certainly, this crisis was different from last year. We thought we'd have a great opportunity to lap the volatility from last year. But obviously, what happened in the spring was a much longer burn for the consumer and for just the macroeconomic backdrop. And so we did have a lot of different patterns that were coming through in the second quarter, some of which spilled over into the third quarter. And as we've been going through, it's been getting better certainly.

But the impact it had on the long-haul life, the exotic cruises, the things that we talked about that are going to have an impact in the first quarter, they're not insurmountable. But it certainly was more of a challenge than when we were thinking about last year at the same time and what it meant. At the same time, we really saw almost a double down on Europe for next year, particularly in the third quarter, which is the biggest part of the European deployment.

So there were certainly a large cohort of people in the spring into the early summer that said, right, we're not going this year, but we are going next year. And so that bodes very well for 2027. So the flavors are always going to be different. It's our job to figure that out, and the teams pivot really well adjust their booking strategies, voyage-by-voyage deployment by deployment. And like we said, we do believe that coming out of all of that, we'll still be able to experience solid deals next year.

That's great. And then just a quick follow-up, maybe not so quick. But I think everybody on this call knows how to look through your release and see the core operating KPIs and how well you're doing. Obviously, EPS takes into account fuel and that's much more volatile. So I'll just sort of ask the quarterly kind of question here, but it's 6 months into this conflict and fuel kind of doing what it's doing, any change or update to the philosophy longer term or the conversation internally thinking about potentially looking at hedging at some point in the future?

Yes. Thanks for getting it out of the way, Brandt. So only one fuels up, right? That's the only time people ask. It's a very fair question to ask because it does have the ability to reduce volatility in any given year. As we've looked at our business, we've looked at this financially as well, we do believe that, that's a short-term band-aid that sometimes pays off, sometimes it doesn't. But the reduction in the volatility to us isn't worth paying banks or counterparties to effectuate those types of trades. And that's why we have been maniacally focused on our consumption rates.

And you heard some statistics from David in his prepared remarks, but the fact that our consumption rate is down 26% since 2019 13% than just 3 years ago. That is where our focus is, and that's where we're going to actually save the money because fuel for the medium term, at least, is always going to be an input cost. And the best way you can combat the input cost is to use less of it. And so our teams have done an absolutely remarkable job of continuing to innovate both on itineraries and the technology to really make that happen. And I couldn't be prouder of that work. It is also good for the planet, and it's tremendous for our bottom line.

Next question is coming from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.

It's Amanda Douglas on for Matt. So Josh, relative to the normalized yield growth of 2.7% expected for this year, could you speak to puts and takes to consider as we look ahead to '27 including if you see any constraints to bookings apart from the first quarter dynamics that you cited and tailwinds to consider from your destination portfolio and modernization initiatives.

Thanks for the question, Amanda. We talked about the first quarter because it does just out for us a little bit because of the knock-on impact of the spring volatility. I don't actually think that there's too much to talk about. I mean, clearly, we love our deployment strategy. We think the combination of our European base, the Alaska portfolio that we've got, including the land side to help. And then obviously, the Caribbean is going to remain important. And all of those have got to do their part to help us on the yield growth. And so we'll certainly talk more in December about how we think about 2027 and some of the ins and outs. But overall, we feel very good about the trajectory.

And just as a follow-up, could you also speak to the strength of onboard spending trends that you're seeing real time? Or any signs of pause or change in the consumers' behavior relative to 3 months ago?

Yes. No, if anything, on board has just accelerated. So we see continued strength from the consumer. And always with asterisk because of the way we do packages and bundles and things of that nature. You always should look at the total revenue because of how things might fall between ticket and onboard. But overall, just to reiterate, no, we haven't seen the slow down beyond board trajectory has been really quite strong.

Next question is coming from Trey Bowers from Wells Fargo.

I'll start with kind of a macro question and pivot a little bit from yields for a second. Now that you guys are investment grade, any thoughts as we think longer term? I know maximizing ROIC investments is the priority. But with the balance sheet in such good shape, is there any thought around just trying to expand kind of the capacity growth slightly.

Yes. I mean, look, our capacity growth is pretty fixed for the next half decade. So that's where we are. if there were opportunities that came around that are one-off unique things, I'd always look at it, that's part of the job, but I think that's where we are. Is there more opportunity as we get further into the 2030s for more ships? Yes. I still think it will fit within our 1 to 2 ships a year construct. And if we were ever going to deviate from that, certainly be something that we share with our stakeholders.

Great. And then as a follow-up, just as you guys mentioned again, the Q1 cadence. Is -- the exit rate we saw coming out of Q3 and Q4 on kind of a like-for-like yield basis, the right way to think about Q1? Or is it just given the dynamics of the timing of the wave season, is that expected to be a bit of a downtick from where we exit the year.

Yes. Sorry, we're not going to -- we're starting to deviate into the guidance for 2027, which we're not going to do. I'd just note that we feel good overall about 2027 particularly as you get away from Q1 into the latter part of the year. I'm not foreshadowing anything about Q1 other than it's got a little bit of a different profile. And so we'll talk more about that in December.

Appreciate it. I had to try.

Yes, good try. Good try.

Your next question is coming from Xian Siew from BNP Paribas.

Maybe following up a little bit on Caribbean. If we look at the capacity deployment mix, it seems like Caribbean capacity might be slightly down next year. But at the same time, you have kind of that growing private destination attendance guest mix. So I guess maybe those 2 combined, I would think, bode well for pricing. But any thoughts on how we should think about that, puts and take on Caribbean.

Yes. I think you got to deconstruct it a little bit. I mean, some of the decrease in our capacity is Princess is moving out and setting a shift to Japan which is going to be great for us. But Princess is generally a premium brand. So when you pull a premium brand out, that has a different impact than others in the deployment region. But -- so there's little changes here and there.

But generally speaking, for the Caribbean, we're pretty consistent in the actual underlying core capacity. And we are going to be able to flex both Celebration Key and RelaxAway because both now have their full marine infrastructure built out, which means we can maximize the marine side of those assets, which is why the throughput is going to be up nicely year-over-year for those 2 destinations.

And then we talked a little bit about pricing for '27 how bookings have been ahead. But maybe on the cost side, you've done a really good job of controlling costs. Anything we should think about in terms of costs into next year? Anything different than maybe your algo or kind of the success you've been having this year?

There's nothing in particular that's notable for 2027. As you can see in '26, we've been working hard to reduce costs and to find ways to save money through sourcing and other means. And our operating companies have been working hard to find efficiencies in the business as well. and we'll continue to step that up and to do more in 2027. But there's nothing in particular to meaningful to drive the costs one way or the other.

Our next question today is coming from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

Could you give us a little bit more color on the 7% onboard and other revenue growth in the quarter. Specifically, within that growth, how much did you see from last year's open celebration key and how much was more from the actual onboard itself. And how would we -- within your 4Q net yield guide, how much would you attribute from celebration Key and how much from the core, ex-Celebration Key.

So the third quarter onboard revenue was really broad-based across all categories. And it was also across all brands on both sides of the Atlantic. So as Josh talked about before, we are not seeing any slowdown in the strength of the consumer I think our bundled packages are helping to contribute to the onboard revenue. We're seeing more than 50% of our revenues prebook. So we're getting the benefit of the second wallet meaningfully on board. And so as a result, as Josh said before, on boards have been very strong.

And as far as the fourth quarter is concerned, I mean, we give guidance in total in yields judge mentioned to judge us on the total because of all the packages and things we offer breaking down the 2 components isn't as meaningful as it used to be. And we gave you our yield guidance for the fourth quarter, and it's as strong as the third. So we're looking forward to that.

Next question today is coming from Steve Wieczynski from Stifel.

Josh, so as we think about the PROPEL targets, that would indicate you guys are targeting about, say, about $350 a share in earnings as we go out to 2029. 2026, we kind of know now is going to be, what, $220 a share in earnings. So that's implying about 20% earnings growth a year through 2029. I mean you mentioned in the past, you guys don't forecast for the world to be perfect. But with oil prices, or clean pricing potential headwinds and other.

I mean, as we sit here today, is that 20% earnings growth still pretty realistic in your view? And I mean, look, I assume so giving you signed off on these targets, but just want to get your kind of high-level thoughts around that.

No, fair question. Obviously, from a -- let's start with the operational. And operationally, we are doing -- I would think this is a pretty good year against the backdrop that we were given. And so yields up almost 3% on a normalized basis in a year where there is the biggest geopolitical crisis we've seen in decades. That's a pretty good sign that the demand is robust, and our brands are doing a really good job.

Fuel prices, we do not know. You're right. We don't know what's going to happen in the future. They're going to go up. They're going to go down. I do know we can control consumption well and continue to drive that down, which is part of how we're going to improve the earnings profile. And our teams, we got to shoot high, right? And we got to think about the different types of things that we can do, not only on the demand generation side, but being innovative on the cost side. especially when our capacity is moderate growth, as you know, to be smarter and more efficient in everything we do. And I think our teams are absolutely capable of figuring those things out.

Some of the trajectory that we've got is, frankly, us, I think, getting a little bit ahead on the collaborative nature of the things that we can do internally to really leverage our scale on a fuller basis, taking advantage of technologies that are out there now and are continuing to evolve. So I'm not pretending it's not going to be hard work, but it's hard work that I think we're all excited to take on, and we've got pretty good road maps to get there. Now if fuel will cooperate, that'll make it a hell of a lot easier but clearly, we can't count on that.

Understood. Okay. Josh, here's a question I don't think you're going to answer them, but I'm going to try it anyway.

Thank you for the [indiscernible]. Thank you.

I know you can basically just say no comment [indiscernible]. Look, I know you don't want to give guidance at this point for next year. But if we go back and we think about kind of how you started your guidance ranges for I think over the last 2 years, you kind of started those in a, what we call, kind of a negative yield cost spread. David gave us a little bit of help in terms of cost for '27. But as we think about next year, should we be thinking about the way you kind of start '27 and that negative yield cost spread as you sit here today. Again, I don't think you're going to answer that, but I'm going to try.

I won't answer it. Nice try. I won't answer it. I would say, I fully expect it to fit into the algorithm that we provided for our PROPEL targets. So but let's see how we go.

Our next question today is coming from Ben Chaiken from Mizuho Securities.

I guess, Josh, I want to touch on European deployment comments. You gave us some interesting commentary about the size of the market relative to the Caribbean. And I could be mistaken, but it also sounds like there's a shift in itinerary as well. leveraging cooler weather experiences versus beach, which I think is new. Maybe you could expand on what you're seeing and the opportunity and then kind of a modeling follow-up.

Sure. Yes, talking about deployment here. And I don't think it's new. I think that Europe, particularly Northern Europe is on the wish list of many North Americans. And frankly, with our European brands, it's the backyard for Germany for the U.K. for -- even for Italy, which has a very strong presence for Northern Europe. And Northern Europe is it could be Baltic states, it could be Sweden, it could be the fires. It could be actually getting all the way to Iceland and back. I mean there's just a lot of opportunity for things that are on people's list.

And one of the things that we have noticed is that if people are looking for a beach vacation, we can satisfy them very well. with what we do in the Caribbean. But there's a contingent that is looking particularly in the summer to explore Europe and they can do it with us, all around that European territory. We do believe that Northern Europe has been more beneficial for us over the past couple of years, probably, and we expect that to continue. And it's not really a change. I guess probably we're emphasizing it a little bit more, particularly because there was a lot of questions about Europe because of the disruption in the spring.

So it is something, though, that we feel very committed to for pretty much all of our brands even Carnival when they're going over for refits and they have to get to Europe. That's a great itinerary for them while they're there.

Okay. And then maybe on another shot on goal regarding costs next year. If I'm not mistake or maybe I can frame it this way. If I'm not mistaken, I think had a few different onetime costs in it. There was some logistics moving crew around. I think you had kind of some Celebration Key overflow from FY '25. Is it fair to say that this year had something in the range of, I don't know, 130 to 150 basis points of one-timers in the number.

Yes, a little over 1 point. But keep in mind that this Celebration Key operated in the full year. Half Moon Cay had a half year of operation. And so we're also in a situation, but we're talking just a couple of tenths of a point. Next year, we will have 5 evolution ships in dry dock compared to 2 this year. But overall, that may shift some of the costs around but we are very confident in next year in our cost structure given everything we're doing to control costs, find sourcing savings and buying efficiencies in our business. that will see control costs in 2027.

Our next question today is coming from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

I was hoping you could just level set a little bit about what a normal normalized CapEx profile looks like for the company for now. I mean, again, new builds are pretty limited. So just on the non-new build side, what that could potentially look like. I realize that a lot of it's like high return on investment, but just any building blocks there would be super helpful.

Yes. Well, like the P&L, we're not giving guidance for CapEx for 2027 yet. But we have said this before, our non-new build CapEx for 2026 is $2.4 billion. And we do expect to see a little bit of a step-up in that number as we go forward because of the -- I mentioned the 5 evolution ships next year. versus 2 this year. So we are expecting to see a step-up in the amount. But we'll give more guidance in December on that as well.

But that is a structural -- like we should expect that to be like a structural higher thing through the end of the decade as you have last new build, correct?

It's obviously very early to give multiple year guidance. But we do expect to see somewhat higher than the $2.4 billion a year for the next few years.

Okay. Super helpful. And then maybe a silly question, but I'm just trying to understand the commentary around the shift in European and whatnot. But I would think that European cruises are just a natural higher ADR versus other areas in some aspects. So as -- is there just a mix benefit in the commentary that you're talking about from a booked position into '27 and '28 or is it -- are you talking about it on a like-for-like basis if the itinerary deployments were the same overall? I realize that's a level of nuance, but yes.

It's a difficult question to answer because you've got different shift -- I mean, different times of the year, we get very different yields in different places. But overall, what we're always trying to do is optimize our revenue as well as our profit or operating income. And so we have shifted ships around in order to do that.

Yes, I'd say that the 2 guiding principles we have when we're making our deployment decisions is one, where ultimately do these guests want to go and what's the most accretive for the business. And so we trust -- I'd say, trust us, we're doing it for the right reasons for both guest satisfaction and the bottom line for the company.

I would hope so. But thank you. Thanks again.

Next question today is coming from Lizzie Dove from Goldman Sachs.

Congrats on great results. I wanted to ask about your private destination strategy. I think in the presentation, it looks like your celebration key visits will be up about 30% next year. RelaxAway and Isla Tropicale, almost 50%. And so I know you've already made a lot of great investments there already a great offering in amenities, but is there a desire over the longer term to kind of do more and expand further with any of those destinations?

I think there might be some little things we can do here and there for Isla Tropicale, might be some more improvements we can make over time for RelaxAway. But that's -- we feel very comfortable about those positions. Celebration Key, we are certainly maxed out in the current build that we've got on the land side and we have the ability to build more, and we've talked about that pretty theoretical way with you all before. I do hope expect that we'll be able to talk about what's Phase 2 for Celebration Key to be able to be able to provide even more to even more guests over time, but it's premature to talk about that.

Got it. Okay. And then, I guess, kind of maybe final shot on goal at this, but I was going back to look at your PROPEL guidance back on what you talked about on the Q1 call. And something I found interesting then was, obviously, you said yield growth would outpace cost growth. But made a comment that as you drive operational efficiencies and realize scale benefits and whatnot, that there'll be decelerating cost growth throughout the period. Now I know that's through 2029. But could you maybe just talk about that and when you kind of gave that guidance at the time for decelerating cost growth, if there's kind of a turning point for that or just how to think about some of those savings. I appreciate that you've already kind of outperformed on costs, but yes.

Yes. I mean I was going to start with, well, we're already pulling some of that forward, right? And I think the team is doing a really good job of not sticking to the algorithm for the sake of the algorithm, but really trying to do what we can and so pulling some of that forward. So we'll talk more about specific cost guidance when we get into 2027 but from a trajectory standpoint and what we think we can achieve for PROPEL, that still holds. We'll talk about specifics in any particular year when we give guidance and we're not there yet.

Operator, I think we have time for one more call.

Certainly. Our final question today is coming from Assia Georgieva from Infinity Research.

Congratulations on a great quarter. I understand that there might be still some issues with Q1 because of the summer events and because winter quarters can be sloppier, I would like to call them. But it does seem that '27 might be an above, how should I put it, historical track of about 2% yield improvement. Is that fair to say? I know in the press release, you were saying it will be a record year, but even a 10 basis point yield improvement will technically be a record deal. So I just wondered relative to the 2% historical benchmark, is that what you're thinking at this point? Or could we be higher because of that Europe shift in demand?

Thank you for the question. I appreciate you giving it one last shot for the team on trying to get us to give more guidance, but we're not going to. And so we'll talk more about 2027 in 3 months when we get on the call.

Thank you, Josh. I appreciate that. I had to try.

Yes, yes. Well done, well done. Well, thank you, everybody, for participating, and we will talk to you again in 3 months. And before we get off, I'd just like to shout out again to the team for doing a remarkable job against a very complicated backdrop. So thank you very much for a job well done. Take care.

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Results. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein, our CFO, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. We will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income and related statistics for all which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated.

A reconciliation to U.S. GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices, yield and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency unless we know otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

Thanks, Beth, and good morning, everyone. Once again, we delivered another quarter of outperformance, demonstrating the strong demand we have across our portfolio of world-class cruise lines, the value consumers place on our vacation experiences and the progress we're making across the business. It was another record quarter with records across revenues, yields, EBITDA, net income and customer deposits, which reached an all-time high of $9 billion.

We outperformed our March guidance by $100 million driven by continued commercial execution and a step-up in our cost efficiency efforts across the organization. Yields exceeded expectations on resilient close-in demand and robust onboard spending and marked our 12th consecutive quarter of record yields. At the same time, we intensified our focus on cost management delivering flat unit operating costs and outperforming our cost guidance by 2.5 points.

Fuel efficiency improved by more than 5%, building on last year's over 6% efficiency gain and further supporting our cost performance. What stands out most is that we achieved these results despite operating through a period of extreme geopolitical volatility, consumer sentiment at historically low levels and unusually high fuel prices. As we have consistently said, though, while we are incredibly resilient to major external shocks, we are not immune and near-term disruption can affect the timing of results, especially when it persists for an extended period of time.

Accordingly, our second quarter operational outperformance and accelerated cost efforts are offsetting the moderation we've incorporated into our back half outlook given the impact of the prolonged conflict. Specifically, this moderation was concentrated on our European deployments, particularly in the Med region, which were closest to the conflict and it was further exacerbated by elevated airfares and reduced international flight capacity for North American guests. So yes, this did put a bit of a dent in our trajectory, but as you would expect, our revenue management teams pivoted and performed exceptionally well.

We entered the quarter having strategically positioned ourselves with both an occupancy and pricing advantage, which was significant for European deployments and which allowed us to deliberately utilize much of that occupancy advantage to prioritize price integrity. As a result, our book position remains ahead of last year as we begin the third quarter at record prices in each of the remaining quarters of this year. With 93% of the business on our books and less inventory remaining for sale than last year, we are well positioned to close out 2026. And we continue to expect record yields in the second half of the year, building on the strong mid-single-digit growth we achieved last year.

Looking further out, we have continued to drive strong bookings for 2027 and beyond, reinforcing our extended booking curve. Since the start of the second quarter, booking volumes and pricing for these future sailings have continued to run ahead of last year's levels. This strength has been broad-based and includes our European deployments next year where bookings were up year-over-year in mid-teens percentages at higher prices, supporting our confidence in the longer-term demand environment.

As conditions continue to normalize, we expect to benefit from the strong underlying demand, pricing and operational improvements that remain embedded in our business. And in fact, booking trends in recent weeks suggests we are already beginning to see a reversal of these headwinds. The key takeaway here is that this moderation is already proving to be transitory and is not something that alters the underlying trajectory of the company.

Importantly, these strong results are not being driven by a single factor. They are supported by structural improvements we continue to make across the business. These improvements are increasingly being driven by 3 areas: stronger commercial capabilities, disciplined fleet investments and our differentiated destination portfolio, all while further reinforcing our industry-leading cost advantage.

First, we continue to sharpen our commercial capabilities through revenue management enhancement, personalization, marketing effectiveness and pulling onboard spending forward. These capabilities are helping us drive stronger pricing, higher onboard spend and improved commercial execution across the portfolio.

Second, we're continuing to improve the earnings power of both our existing and future fleet through disciplined capacity growth and high-return investments. Our capacity growth remains intentionally measured and we remain highly disciplined in how we allocate capital, investing behind those brands and opportunities that demonstrate the strongest return potential.

This quarter, we placed orders for 3 new Princess cruise ships scheduled for delivery in 2035, 2038 and 2039. These vessels built upon the success of our sphere class platform with some Princess and Star Princess continuing to deliver fantastic guest satisfaction and commercial performance. They bring our total order book to 10 ships, including 5 for Carnival Cruise Line and 2 for AIDA. While it is safe to assume that more vessels will be ordered for delivery in the 2030s, we have no plans to deviate from our 1 to 2 ships per year cadence.

What we do plan to do is lean heavily into investing in return-generating modernization programs across our existing fleet. We are very encouraged by the continued performance of the AIDA Evolution program with AIDAbella becoming the third of 7 ships to complete the upgrade. We also recently announced Holland America Evolution, our next midlife modernization program, which will further enhance the guest experience while creating additional revenue opportunities and operational efficiencies.

6 Holland America Line ships will receive these upgrades beginning with Oosterdam in the fall of 2027 and we also anticipate moderate capacity growth for Holland America as we leverage ways to add cabins to these ships. You can expect to hear more in the coming months about significant enhancement programs for more of our brands.

Third, we continue to maximize the value of our unmatched destination portfolio through investments that enhance the guest experience, strengthen itinerary differentiation and further leverage this amazing footprint. In early May, we completed a peer extension at Celebration Key, increasing operational flexibility and enabling us to accommodate up to 4 ships and over 13,000 guests on any given day. Next year, Celebration Key is expected to welcome 3.5 million visitors while still providing ample capacity for future land side expansion.

This month, we also opened a new peer at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay enabling 2 of our larger ships to dock simultaneously while maintaining tender operations for midsized vessels. This increases capacity at the destination to over 12,000 guests per day. RelaxAway has opened to rave reviews, reflecting our deliberate intention to preserve the natural beauty and relaxed atmosphere that have made Half Moon Cay, one of the most beloved destinations in the Caribbean.

Importantly, these investments enable us to offer both Celebration Key, Grand Bahama and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay on the same itinerary creating 2 highly differentiated beach experiences within a single vacation. Celebration Key offers a high energy experience, including expansive lagoons, the world's largest sandcastle complete with water slides and the world's largest swim-up bar. RelaxAway is centered on the natural beauty of its mile-long White Sand Beach and picturesque Crystal Bluewater. We believe this pairing is a meaningful competitive advantage. Beach vacations are among the most popular vacation choices for consumers and few travel companies can offer this level of variety, convenience and value within a single vacation experience.

We also continue to invest in Isla Tropicale in Roaton, recently completing an enhanced pool and Cabana offering that adds to an already highly rated destination. These investments further strengthen our Western Caribbean itineraries by giving guests the flexibility to choose between an amazing beach day or explore one of the Caribbean's most content-rich destinations.

Isla Tropicale also pairs exceptionally well with our destination in Cozumel, Puerta Maya, which serves as a gateway to some of the most sought-after cultural and adventure experiences in Mexico. Together, these destinations create a differentiated Western Caribbean vacation that appeals to a broad range of guests and support stronger demand across our deployment offering. These investments are particularly important because they build upon a position of strength in the Gulf Coast, where we have spent more than 25 years establishing the industry's leading presence.

Today, we sell approximately 1 million guests annually from Galveston and operates 6 ships from the market soon to be 7 with the arrival of Carnival Tropicale in 2028. Our scale which also extends to Gulf home ports in New Orleans, Mobile and Tampa, combined with our destination portfolio and long-standing year-round presence provide a meaningful competitive advantage as demand continues to grow throughout the region. Taken together, our Paradise collection destinations are expected to welcome over 9 million guest visits next year with approximately 85% of our Caribbean itineraries calling on at least 1 exclusive destination and nearly half visiting 2 or more.

Our unique destination strategy extends well beyond the Caribbean. Alaska remains one of our most important competitive advantages, spanned across 5 of our brands, 19 ships and 4 embarkation ports. Our scale and long-standing presence in the Alaska region have helped secure preferential access to both embarkation ports and ports of call creating advantages that are increasingly difficult to replicate. Importantly, we're the only cruise company with a fully integrated land and sea platform. Through our lodges, rail assets and motor coach operations, we offer high-yielding land and experiences that further differentiate our Alaska offerings.

We currently operate lodges at 8 properties, including Denali, where an expansion of our most popular property is currently underway, reflecting both the strength of demand and our confidence in the long-term growth opportunity in the region. Together, our Caribbean and Alaska destination portfolios are exceptional assets that strengthen our competitive position and support long-term growth across the business. Collectively, our commercial, our fleet and our destination initiatives are strengthening the business. As they continue to mature, we expect them to drive stronger earnings, cash flow and returns over time.

And as of today, we have the financial flexibility to simultaneously invest in our brands and destinations, continue reducing leverage and accelerate shareholder returns. Consistent with that approach, we have already repurchased $450 million of stock under our opportunistic share buyback program. That flexibility is a direct result of the progress we've made over the past several years and reflects the strength of the foundation we've built.

As we look ahead, we remain focused on executing our strategy, navigating external conditions as they emerge and continuing to deliver sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. Of course, none of this progress would be possible without the dedication of our more than 160,000 team members, ship and sure. I want to thank them for delivering these second quarter results and continuing to go above and beyond to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every place we visit, life we touch and ocean we sale.

I also want to thank our travel agent partners, our loyal guests, investors, destination partners, and all of our stakeholders for their continued support and for helping us build the momentum we are seeing across the business.

With that, I'll turn the call over to David to walk you through the quarter and our guidance in more detail.

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our second quarter 2026 results. Then I'll provide color on our full year June guidance and finish up with some comments on the unification of our dualistic company structure and an update on our share buyback program.

We delivered record second quarter net income, exceeding our March guidance across revenue, costs and earnings. These results reflect strong execution across our portfolio and the benefits of enhanced revenue optimization, cost management and operational efficiency. Net income of $569 million was more than 20% higher than the prior year despite a nearly 30% increase in our fuel price. Net income exceeded our March guidance by $100 million or $0.07 per share.

The outperformance versus March guidance was driven by 3 factors. The primary driver of our outperformance was exceptional cost discipline. Cruise cost without fuel per ALBD were essentially flat year-over-year outperforming our March guidance by approximately 250 basis points and contributed $0.05 per share. This substantial improvement was achieved despite higher crew travel costs and freight resulting from the Middle East disruption. Some of the $0.05 per share cost improvement this quarter was timing of expenses between the quarters.

Importantly, the improvement was not solely timing related. During the quarter, we identified and implemented several initiatives that reduced our cost base and we'll continue to benefit earnings throughout the remainder of this year and beyond, resulting in a $0.06 per share cost improvement flowing through to our full year June guidance.

Second, revenue contributed $0.01 per share as yields were up 2.2% versus the prior year on top of a more than 6% increase in the second quarter last year. despite extreme geopolitical volatility and historic low levels of consumer sentiment throughout the quarter resilient close-in demand and robust onboard spending drove yields modestly above our March expectations. And third, the remaining $0.01 per share of favorability came from improvements in depreciation expense and fuel consumption, where we delivered in over 5% year-over-year reduction.

Now turning to our full year June guidance. Our full year guidance calls for earnings per share of $2.22 which is $0.01 above our previous guidance as we recognize the EPS accretion from our second quarter share repurchases. Overall, due to the extreme geopolitical volatility that lasted more than 3 months, our June guidance reflects a revision to yield that was offset by our intensified focus on cost management. We view the revision to yield as transitory and not something that alters the underlying trajectory of the company, while our cost management initiatives are embedded in the business and should continue to benefit us over time.

In addition, given the recent volatility of fuel prices, I would like to point out that the net impact of fuel price and currency on our June guidance versus our previous guidance was less than $0.01 per share with our fuel price for June guidance based on the current spot price of fuel.

Now turning to yield growth. Our June guidance assumes normalized yield growth of approximately 2.25%. As you recall, we normalized 2026 yield growth by approximately 50 basis points for 2 things. the previously disclosed impact of last summer's close-in decision to redeploy away from the winter 2026 Arabian Gulf voyages which in hindsight turned out to be a great decision and the fourth quarter impacts of loyalty program accounted. Our yield growth was revised by approximately 1 percentage point relative to our previous guidance and represents a $0.14 per share operational knock-on impact of the extreme geopolitical volatility generated by the Middle East conflict.

As you heard from Josh, the conflict in the Middle East impacted our European deployments. The end result is a portion of the yield moderation is from slightly lower occupancy, and this revision includes both ticket and onboard revenue. We believe this decision is consistent with our philosophy of making decisions that are in the best interest of the company in the long run and will facilitate our ability to benefit from inherent strong demand as the extreme geopolitical volatility subsides.

Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up approximately 1.3% on a normalized basis, which includes the $0.06 per share cost savings I previously mentioned. This is normalized for 3 factors that constitute slightly more than 1 point of cruise costs without fuel a partial year operating expenses associated with Celebration Kay and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and the timing of certain expenses between years, as we previously discussed, as well as the recent impact of higher crude travel costs and freight resulting from the Middle East disruption.

Importantly, while the conflict in the Middle East resulted in a yield growth revision by approximately 1 percentage point relative to our prior guidance, our intensified focus on cost management generated an offsetting 1 percentage point improvement in cruise costs without fuel. This demonstrates the many levers we have to manage the overall performance of our business. Other operational favorability of $0.08 per share were driven by improvements in depreciation expense, fuel consumption, fuel mix, net interest expense and other income.

Now I'll finish up with some comments on the unification of our dualist company structure and an update on our share buyback program. In early May, we announced the completion of the unification of our dualistic company structure under a single company, Carnival Corporation with Carnival plc as a U.K. subsidiary of Carnival Corporation. The completion of the DLC unification represents an important milestone in our company's evolution.

The transaction simplifies our corporate structure, enhances liquidity in our stock, creates a single global share price and reduces administrative complexity, all of which strengthens our ability to create long-term shareholder value. I would like to take this opportunity to say thank you to our shareholders for their overwhelming support for this initiative.

Turning to capital allocation. In late March, our Board of Directors approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program. The authorization of our buyback program reflects both the strength of our cash flow generation and our confidence in the long-term value of the business. To date, we have opportunistically repurchased over 17 million shares for over $450 million. Combining our annualized dividend distributions and just the share repurchases completed to date, we will be returning $1.3 billion to shareholders this year while continuing to invest in growth opportunities and further strengthening our balance sheet.

Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio has consistently improved throughout the year from 3.4x at year-end 2025 to 3.3x at the end of the first quarter to 3.1x at the end of the second quarter, which is over a 0.5 point improvement from just 1 year ago. All of this is made possible by the strength of our business which is forecasted to generate over $7 billion of EBITDA this year despite the recent events over the last 4 months.

Operator, we're now ready to open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Trey Bowers with Wells Fargo.

I apologize for my voice, I'm fighting up some allergies. Just as we look at kind of the shape of the yield growth for the balance of the year, it looks like Q4 kind of implies a slightly lower number than Q3. Anything to call out there? Is that just kind of being conservative? Or is there something about the shape of the year that would cause Q4 to be a little bit softer?

You sound fine, Trey. So Q4, when you normalize for the CCL loyalty program, which is all in Q4, we're actually closer to 2%. So I don't think that's the normalized pattern at the end of the day.

Okay. Perfect. I didn't realize it was all Q4. And then as we look out to 2027, you guys gave us kind of the impact of the war and the impact of the loyalty program. I mean it seems like around a little bit of above the 3% number is the core of -- where yield has grown. Is that a good number to have in mind for next year? Or are you guys going to pause on saying anything about 2027 this early?

I think it's well done that you -- right off the bat, you tried to get us to give guidance on '27, but we're not going to do that yet. So I'm sorry, you have to wait a little closer to '27.

I guess if not that then, just what is the -- how much of that impact from loyalty kind of impairs '27 numbers as well?

Yes. So for '27 for the full year, it's like 0.4 point.

Year-over-year because it's a full year of that.

The next question comes from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

So, Josh, I guess I'm a little bit confused here. If we think about your March full year yield guidance, which was 2% in 3 quarters versus the revised 1.75% yield guidance you provided this morning. I'm just trying to figure out what really has changed since March. At that point, you guys were 85% booked for the year. So just wondering, were you guys expecting a smaller impact from the war? Or was there a major change in demand for certain itineraries? Or you guys witnessed a major uptick in cancellations.

But I guess the simple question -- I mean, I guess here's a simple question, Josh. Is pretty much all of the 100 basis point cut to yields just directly tied to the Middle East, meaning the rest of your deployments have been pretty much status quo?

Yes. So let me -- I guess I'll start by going back to March. We have been at the time of a few weeks into the conflict. And what we did expect at that time was there was going to be a pretty significant pause as people try to figure out, right, with this new normal means. And what we talked about on the call is it did seem like there was kind of concentric circles as you go farther away from the conflict. So the Med region was really the thing that kind of was taking it most on the chin. It got better when you got to Northern Europe and then it got better as you move farther away.

We certainly did not expect the conflict to last throughout the whole of our second quarter including the Strait of Hormuz and all the knock-on impacts that the world really saw from that. So hindsight is great, but that wasn't the expectation. So when we think about and try to do this like year-over-year, if we go last year, right, last year, March, was a recovery month for us. That was actually gaining steam because we had an initial impact in February from the initial rulings of tariffs, if you remember. And then April of last year, just took a big hit with all the volatility and then people normalized as we talked about because they started figuring out what this mean or not mean to me and they moved on.

This year, March with clearly impacted by the start of the war to differing impacts like I talked about. And we did better year-over-year in April, but we should have done better because last year, April was the volatility from the tariff announcements. Europe did do a good deal better in April than March, but it was not positive year-over-year. So we were still not in a great place, and that's not surprising because the news flow didn't stop, right?

I mean this was -- the last 3 months until we turn the page a little bit in June, and we'll talk about that, too. This was a perpetual headline of ever-changing questions about when and how this was going to end and people can't normalize if they can't figure out how are they going to plan their future. And we really did experience that. So May was a bit of a step backwards year-over-year versus April because of the comps at the least and then the ongoing pace of what was going on in the conflict.

So I think the good news is June certainly seems to have turned a corner and last week was a nice was a nice cherry on top as we kind of got the MOU signed and people started thinking about, okay, I can start planning my life again. So we do not plan for smooth sailing on a continuous basis as we get through the end of this year. I think that will be [ naive ]. We think there'll be bumps in the road as the geopolitical situation does gradually normalize. And we're doing what we can and what we should to move forward.

Okay. That's great. And then I guess you kind of answered this a little bit, but maybe not. But you mentioned a couple of times that you've recently started to see reversal of these headwinds in terms of booking progress. So as we think about your guidance for the rest of the year, is that assuming that reversal continues to play out? Or does that -- or does your guidance still assume that these headwinds that have been in place just kind of stay in place for the remainder of the year?

Yes. So we definitely do not expect to go backwards to what the second quarter looked like, meaning we do not expect and we're not planning on a world where the conflict is going to reignite and the straits are going to be closed, and that's what we're going to be experiencing for the next several months. If that happens, we'll have to see what that means for our business and what we do.

I think the fact that we were able to deliver what we did in Q2 and come out the other side with what we expect to be record yields in the second half. and giving the dividend play and investing in ourselves and delevering. I mean I think it shows the strength of the business. We're now planning for perfection, though.

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

Just wanted to get a little more color around you were 85% booked in March and just kind of thinking about the delta for the 100 basis points for the full year to be on that last 15%. Could you maybe give us a little bit of insight into that demand for the med from North American travelers versus your European sourced customers? Just to get a little more color around that.

Rob, I'm sorry, can you do me a favor. I apologize. Can you ask the question again? Sorry about that.

Sure. So basically, asking for the difference in demand from European source passengers for your European source brands versus North American travelers. Just trying to think about that you were 85% booked for the year in March, and so the 100 basis point change is really just occurring on that last 15% that hadn't been sold as of March. And so just trying to think about how that is versus those 2 different customer segments of yours?

Yes. So what I'd tell you is both our Europe segment and our North America segment for our Europe deployment were ahead in occupancy overall, which was great to see. It was significantly more ahead year-over-year for our North American brands, which makes sense because it's a longer haul type of decision they're making, and we were really leading into pulling that ahead. So their occupancy advantage actually unwound more than our European brands did.

And so we're seeing a turn, which is great as I mentioned. So it does seem like people are now turning the page, including for Europe, but we are we are ending in a place where we absolutely expect positive yields for our European deployments as we move forward.

Okay. And just as a follow-up, actually on a different topic. I'm curious, you mentioned that the peer is done at celebration key to be able to have 4 ships. But I don't think you've announced anything in terms of expanding what you have available your passenger capacity with the amenities there. Can you take 4 ships today and have all of those travelers there? Or when does that happen that you get the benefit of the -- [ your ] being open.

Yes. So we'll get the benefit pretty much right away in that it gives us the flexibility to maximize that 13,000 guest footprint that we have on land. We won't have 3 ships -- actually, no, I take that back. We've already had 3 ships in a day, which was great. Obviously, we can't take the 3 biggest ships because if we took the 3 bigger ships in a day, we'd be closer to 18,000 than we were 13,000.

What it does give us though is the flexibility to optimize the deployments in the itineraries to mix and match the ships to make sure that we're getting is close to that 13,000 guest count as we can on a regular basis. And that's why we're expecting -- when you look at 2027 on an annualized basis for Celebration Key about 3.5 million people, which is a pretty good step in the right direction. We will certainly be talking more about potential land side expansion as we make our way through the year.

The next question comes from the line of Ben Chaiken with Mizuho.

I'd love to -- Josh, you touched on the modernization effort. It feels like you may be leaning into this a little bit further. Are there any statistics you can share whether that's expected yield uplift or ROI. I guess it'd just be great to understand kind of what data or thought process gives you the confidence in this strategy.

Sure. So the way we've looked at it, there's 3 components to these modernization programs. One is the boring stuff, which happens on any refit, which is below the water line, the things you have to do to make sure that the equipment is in good order, et cetera. Next is what we consider the fund refurbishment side, which is guest-facing public areas, cabin work, new venues for F&B experiences and all of that segment too. And segment 3 is the ability to include new cabins. We look at the latter too, when we think about our ROIs and the investments we make the cabins are easy. They pay for themselves in a couple of years.

So when we find those opportunities, we exploit them. We couldn't do it on AIDA because they were so densely packed to begin with since their creation. But certainly for Holland America and other brands as we announce those will be part of the equation. When we look at the guest refurbishment side, we really think about it like a new build type of hurdle with much less cost involved. So we expect to achieve at least high teens when we're going into those type of refurbishment decisions.

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just touch on Celebration Key. You kind of alluded to it a moment ago in the previous question, but any update on Celebration Key from a demand perspective, but then also more importantly, how you're thinking about future phases of land development to the extent that's on your mind, which kind of sounds like it might be.

Yes. So I'll take the latter quickly. It is still a lot of work to do to get there, and we don't want to get ahead of anything. So nothing they talk about yet, but certainly, as soon as we feel comfortable doing that, we will. With respect to demand, it's really on almost all Caribbean capacity for Carnival. So it is pretty endemic and engrained in what their offering is. And the feedback has been really quite strong.

We solved a lot of the challenges that we had from start-up, which isn't surprising given it was a start-up, and we expect to just keep making the experience better and better for our guests. And now we have the ability to also pair that with RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay, which we are absolutely really static about. So a lot of tailwinds as we look into the future.

The next question comes from the line of Xian Siew with BNP Paribas.

Maybe going back to the net yield guidance and the 100 bps reduction. I think you mentioned lower occupancy as part of that. So is it that you're kind of maybe leaving some cabins unsold rather than discounting? Or is it cancellations? Can you give us maybe a little bit more color? And then if I look ahead then, could occupancy snap back into next year?

Sure. So yes, I mean, occupancy is definitely part of it. And we looked at -- particularly with Q3, where we were looking at what the trends were and what our book position is and what's the right trade-off to make. We took our occupancy expectations down a couple of points for Europe because we think that's the right thing to do for the long term. We recognize that, that might have an impact on the onboard spending, obviously, profile since there's less souls on board. But we're managing the business for the long term. So we think that that's the right trade-off and overall, the healthiest thing for the business.

As far as snapping back, when we look into next year yes, absolutely. There's nothing to say that we shouldn't be able to achieve what we want. And I've tried to stress in my notes, and I know David did as well, we really do view this as a temporal phenomenon. And it was just a little bit of a pause in the good momentum that we've had, so that it's a little bit less momentum right now, and we expect to ramp it back up. as things do normalize.

Great. And then you talked a little bit about the Western Caribbean and Isla Tropicale. Just wondering if you could give us little bit more color on what you think the opportunity is for that region as you kind of lean into it a bit more.

Yes. I mean we have been for decades. We will continue to do that. We're really excited in 2028. We'll have the newest ship for the Carnival Cruise Line brand positioned out of Galveston. And we continue to -- we will continue to invest in things like Isla Tropicale, Puerta Maya, which is a beautiful gateway, Paradise collection destination for us. So we'll continue to do what we've what we've been doing and try to maximize our presence in the Western Caribbean as well.

The next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

So Josh, with your booking curve the furthest out on record, as you cited, could you elaborate on demand for '27 sailings for Europe, as you noted, people turning the page there. And any notable trends in the Caribbean? Or maybe just if I put it all together, it sounds like, and I just wanted to confirm, no change at all in your confidence for moderate yield growth multiyear, as you outlined as part of the PROPEL plan.

Yes. No change in my confidence for that. So it's early days for 2027. We wanted to give you a little bit of color that -- to kind of highlight the temporal nature of this, the fact that our European bookings over the same time that we saw a really big kind of pause for a lot of folks for 2026. We saw almost doubling down for 2027, which we thought was a great sign. Overall, we are at historic highs for price and occupancy for 2027, and we'll work hard to improve our position over time.

Great. And then, David, with your net cruise cost ex fuel guidance of 2% to 3% for this year, it's coming in roughly 100 basis points more favorable relative to your initial forecast. Do you see the cost savings this year as structural? Just wanted to confirm potential reinvestments that we should think about or just anything multiyear that would change the low single-digit cost CAGR that was embedded in the PROPEL plan?

No, everything that -- the overwhelming majority of what we're doing is for the long term. We found lots of hundreds of little things that we can change over time, which will improve our cost base. I mean there's things like the brands have been optimizing the number of forklifts that they use an embarkation day. When you go from 14 to 13 forklifts and you can make a change on multiple ships over multiple itineraries, it saves hundreds of thousands of dollars in a year. And there's lots of ideas and things like that.

We're also been working with many of our suppliers and vendors to look for reduced rates as everybody implements AI and gains efficiency in their business. We do expect fee reductions as a result of that. So hundreds of items across the business, which we view as permanent cost savings in the future.

The next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

This is Sean Wagner on for James. Similar to the first question about yield impacts in 2027 and understanding that it's too early to give us 2027 guidance. But with all the moving parts and onetime pieces called out 2026 cost guidance. How should we think about these cost items into next year? I assume you get all of the 30 bps of elevated costs related to the Middle East back. But can you sort of walk us through how the timing of costs and partial operating expenses for the 2 exclusive destinations net out next year?

Yes. So there's a lot of puts and takes for 2027. But at this point in time, I think it's a little premature because many decisions have yet to be made for 2027. And so like the guidance that -- the yield guidance that Josh referred to, you'll have to wait a little bit closer to the end of the year to get better color on that. But as we said in our long-term PROPEL model and guidance, we've got great cost discipline built in the business, and we do expect to utilize that discipline to control costs over time.

Okay. Fair enough. And then I guess you spoke on bookings and pricing on 2027 sailings being up since March, how does the overall 2027 booking curve compared to 2026 at this point? And then I guess to the point of the substantial increase in European bookings for 2027, is that increase primarily first half weighted?

So yes, overall, our position for 2027 is at historical highs for price and occupancy. So we're setting ourselves up well. So still a lot of work to do. I don't have the split to be honest with you for Europe between first half and second half. So we can try to get back to you on that. But overall, we feel like we're setting ourselves up as best as can be, and we'll see how we can progress things.

And the next question comes from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs.

So as it relates to this year, it sounds like for the guidance caught on yield, most of that, maybe all of it is Europe. But could you maybe elaborate a little more on Caribbean trends? How would you characterize the kind of backdrop and competitive environment there? And how did the conflict or higher airfares from the conflict impact that region versus Europe?

Sure, Lizzie. So I think it's fair to say holistically, nothing was immune because there are certainly people at any price point for any deployment that this changed their decision-making process. But clearly, as we talked about, for us, at least, it was really centered primarily in Europe and then lesser impact as it got farther away. The actual booking trajectory of the Caribbean didn't take much of a movement as we went into the war, during the war and now have come out. So we just seem to be chugging along.

I think it's fair to say we're chucking along, we're the capacity increase outside of us is 27% over 2 years. So as I've said before, give me 2 options. One is no growth and the other is 27%. I'll take the note growth. But that's already been baked into our planning and how we've been positioning ourselves.

Got it. And then I guess just going back to Europe. One thing I'm trying to square is we had one of your peers say Europe trends had turned in late April. It sounds like yours are kind of starting to turn now. So is there anything that you would flag from, I don't know, maybe more of a brand perspective, I know we've discussed like local Europe versus U.S.? But anything, whether it be P&O, AIDA versus Costa that you'd flag in terms of how Europe has trended?

Yes. Well, I'll be -- I certainly wouldn't speak for any of our competitors, so I can just speak for ourselves. And I'm not sure if you heard the -- what I had said earlier on the call. But May, even for Europe was definitely a good amount better than April -- pardon me, April was a good amount better than May. But it still didn't mean it was going great. So you could say for us, yes, it was recovering in April versus where we were in March, which was really kind of a cardiac arrest for a little while. But it still wasn't great.

In April, we did have much easier comps year-over-year. And May, it was just that continuation of the news flow and fuel prices and will Europe have fuel to fly my plane back home, right? I mean, all those things, they didn't really die down. And so it did definitely have an impact, at least for us. in May, particularly with folks who are looking to fly. So that's the best I can tell you about ourselves.

The next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

Just on Celebration Key, I know you talked about the ramp and the goal for next year. But I think you start to sell itineraries to other brands that start to touch there. I think Princess itinerary start to open up in November or something like that. So if you could just talk about how different brands are going to be impacted. Yes, can you just talk about the opportunity at the different brands for Celebration Key in general.

Yes, sure. So definitely opportunities wise, I think AIDA is technically the first brand that's going to touch down outside of Carnival Cruise Line. So they get the mantle. But that's fairly irregular as opposed to what Princess is going to be doing, which is more scheduled throughout the winter.

Right now, I'd say it's great, but it's a tail of a dog because for the most part, Carnival Cruise Line is taking up most of it. But we've we certainly have been building out itineraries for as many brands as many ships to be able to benefit from Celebration Key as possible.

And we had the same approach for not only Celebration Key, but for RelaxAway and Half Moon and just try to maximize the impact that we can make for the company. The limiting factor certainly on Celebration Key is that land side. So hopefully, as we make our way through the latter half of this decade, we'll be able to make some inroads on giving ourselves even more opportunity.

Okay. That's helpful. And then I'm sorry to bring it back to '27, just there's a lot of moving parts. So like I think we all understand that, that second half comps are now a little bit easier than they were before. But you made the parallel to the trade and tariff situation in 2025. So that seemed to like linger on I think within your yield headwinds for a little bit longer than what I think we all kind of had anticipated. So when you booked stuff I presumably think that's a first half commentary during this whole timeframe. Did your yields change meaningfully in any direction? Just trying to understand the transitory part of the whole thing.

I had you until you ask the last part of the question, to be honest with you.

Yes. It's like you're talking about how it's transitory, and I understand that the worst is over and the yields are -- your bookings are starting to improve. But presumably, you booked some 2027 bookings in the first half during this time frame. Like did that -- like should we expect a headwind to first half of 2027 next year just given things were booked now?

I got you. I got you. Well, you're certainly right about last year. The flavor of that crisis had a lingering impact. As far as this goes, I think it's safe to say, we're still early days to figure out exactly how much if and which way this is all coming together for 2027. So I think it's a little bit premature.

Clearly, there are some folks who are not booking, right, who just went through the quarter and didn't book and there is an impact there. I think the good news is, overall, for 2027, our bookings were up year-over-year which is a good sign.

The next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

I guess just one last question on kind of the occupancy point in the back half of the year. just embedded in your 3Q net yield guidance, should we be factoring in flat year-over-year occupancy down occupancy or up occupancy?

Yes. So it's probably relatively flat year-over-year. Our original thought would be that we would perhaps get a bit more than we did in the prior year. But given the circumstances, I'd say it's going to be close to flat.

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Josh, just you continue to double down on kind of the limited fleet growth and new hardware I guess what are maybe the top 2 or 3 opportunities that Carnival has that can help keep your longer-term net yield growth sort of in that moderate range or, I'll call it, above inflationary range over the next several years as you have a little bit more modest fleet growth.

Yes, thanks. Honestly, I think a lot of it is just blocking and tackling and doing well across the space and our commercial execution. With respect to things that we can introduce to help everybody, we've got a lot of the foundation in place already with the destination footprint that we've already got that we can now leverage fully as we look forward, I think that's going to help.

I think our brands are truly world class. They've been doing a lot to show significant improvement in their yields, most of which had no new builds. And so we just got to keep doing what we've been doing and deliver.

We've got time for 1 more operator.

And the final question will come from the line of Anthony Bernie with Jefferies.

This is Anthony on for David Katz. Just one quick one on the capital returns. I know you've done the dividend and the buyback. Just curious if you expect the dividend to kind of remain constant or grow over time. And for repurchases, is the level that you've been doing over the first half representative of what you kind of expect for the second half? Or how should we think about that?

Sure. Well, I'm only one of many board members, and this is a Board decision about the dividend. I do think it'd be fair to say that a moderate increase as we look forward is rational and reasonable, but ultimately, we had to do that with the Board in full, and I think we'll do that in a very measured, responsible way.

With respect to the buybacks, I've said, we got the initial authorization for $2.5 billion. We certainly don't expect to spend $2.5 billion this year. At an annualized rate, $450 million a quarter would probably be too much to expect at least on our current thinking but we have been opportunistic, and we'll continue to be opportunistic. So we still have plenty of headroom as we look forward with the cash that we're generating and the metrics that we're trying to achieve. So I expect more to come, but I wouldn't be wedded to annualizing this quarter's amount.

Okay. Well, thank you very much, everybody. I hope you all have very pleasant summer. I hope you are sailing with us, and we'll see you or talk to you in September. Take care.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, SVP, Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. You may begin.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our CFO, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison. Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. We will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, ROIC and related statistics, all of which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated. A reconciliation to U.S. GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices, yields and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency, unless we note otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

Thanks, Beth. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I do want to acknowledge the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the profound human impact it's having on so many people. Our thoughts are with the brave men and women of our armed forces, with all those affected, and with the countless families and communities facing hardship during this time. Like so many around the world, we remain hopeful for a resolution that brings relief to those impacted and a lasting peace to the region.

Turning to our business. We are off to an excellent start to the year. First quarter results came in ahead of guidance, thanks to higher yields and better cost performance, reflecting healthy fundamentals and solid execution across the business. Close-in demand remained robust, guests continued to spend more onboard and pricing strengthened, enabling us to outperform our December guidance and deliver record first quarter revenues, net yields, operating income, EBITDA and customer deposits. We're seeing this momentum continue in onboard and pre-cruise sales. Guests are engaging earlier in the vacation journey, purchasing more inclusive packages, excursions and other experiences before they even step on board. That trend is contributing to higher onboard revenue and reflects the value guests place on the experiences our cruise lines deliver.

We're also seeing it in our bookings. Bookings for current year sailings increased 10% year-over-year, adding to our record book position for the remainder of the year at historically high prices. With nearly 85% of 2026 already on the books and less inventory available than this time last year, we remain well positioned to keep improving yields as the year unfolds. Cumulative future year bookings also reached a first quarter record, adding to our continued confidence in the trajectory of the business. And as a result, we are seeing it in our customer deposits, which reached a new first quarter record of almost $8 billion, surpassing last year's high watermark by nearly 10%.

Now what stands out most is that we're achieving all of this against such an unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. It says a great deal about the demand we continue to see across our portfolio of world-class cruise lines, about the team's ability to execute on our long-term strategy and about the progress we've made in positioning the business to perform through a wide range of environments. This start to the year also supports increasing our full year outlook operationally by approximately $150 million compared to our December view. That improvement helps absorb a $500 million fuel headwind albeit that is against a substantial EBITDA forecast of $7 billion, which David will walk you through in more detail.

This quarter and our outlook are further evidence of how far this business has come over the last several years. Over that time, we have restructured the organization, reconstituted the global leadership of the corporation and our cruise lines, actively managed the portfolio and its assets and sharpened our commercial operations. We have also just begun to better harness the power of our unmatched Caribbean and Alaskan destination footprints, improve pricing, fortify the balance sheet and embed greater rigor across the organization. As you know, thanks to those efforts, last year, we surpassed our SEA Change objectives in roughly half the originally outlined time frame. We more than doubled our ROIC, delivered our highest unit EBITDA in nearly 2 decades and meaningfully reduced our greenhouse gas intensity rate, all of which built momentum and, more importantly, reinforced that our approach is working.

With this robust foundation in place, we are focused on the next chapter of value creation for Carnival. So today, we are introducing PROPEL: Powering Growth & Returns, Responsibly. By 2029, we are targeting return on invested capital above 16%, earnings per share growth of more than 50% versus 2025 and the distribution of more than 40% of our cash from operations to shareholders, or approximately $14 billion. At its core, PROPEL is about converting strong and growing demand into higher returns, earnings and cash flow while maintaining disciplined capacity growth and a strong balance sheet.

That we see 4 primary drivers underpinning these targets. First, yield expansion. A continued focus on high-quality execution across our commercial operations will drive even more growth in same-ship demand, strong pricing, increased onboard spend and earlier guest engagement throughout the booking journey. These trends are already evident in our current performance and give us confidence in our ability to drive sustained yield improvement.

Second, disciplined capacity growth and high-returning capital allocation. Our capacity growth remains intentionally measured with only 3 ships scheduled to enter service during the PROPEL period. At the same time, we'll be investing in return-generating modernization programs across many of our cruise lines, building on the success we are already seeing from AIDA Evolution. And the second cruise line announcing its program will be just next month, so stay tuned.

Third, further monetizing our destination portfolio. We're expanding and enhancing our unique destination assets, including Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Isla Tropicale, Roatan, along with our unrivaled Alaska land footprint to deliver differentiated guest experiences while generating attractive incremental returns.

Fourth, continued cost discipline. We remain hyper-focused on maintaining our industry-leading cost structure and driving operational efficiencies across the P&L. And all of this is supported by a phenomenal team and advancing technologies to enhance revenue and improve efficiency. Importantly, these PROPEL targets will not come at the expense of financial strength, corporate responsibility or investing in our future. We are targeting net debt-to-EBITDA of 2.75x and a reduction in greenhouse gas intensity of more than 25% versus 2019 levels. For us, returns, resilience and environmental stewardship go hand in hand.

And further, our growing cash flow will enable us to meet these targets while reinvesting over $15 billion back into the business over this time frame. With greater financial flexibility, we have the capacity to invest in our growth, to achieve our leverage target to grow our recently reinstated dividend and to return excess capital through an opportunistic buyback program, beginning with a $2.5 billion authorization announced today. This is a balanced approach, investing for growth, increasing shareholder returns and doing so in a way that supports the long-term earnings power of our business. Accelerating returns is a natural result of that strategy and a reflection of the attractive fundamentals of our business.

Our capacity growth remains measured while demand continues to expand as cruising becomes even more mainstream, as consumers are choosing to spend more of their hard-earned money on well-deserved and much-needed vacations, and as we remain underpenetrated relative to the broader vacation market. We are well positioned with a strategy that is grounded, focused, diversified across our portfolio and built for consistent execution over the long term. As we continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, we remain focused on executing on that strategy and delivering for our guests, for our shareholders and our other stakeholders. While external conditions will continue to evolve, what gives us confidence is our ability to deliver exceptional vacation experiences, operate efficiently, allocate capital with discipline and grow in a measured way.

Now none of this progress happens without the dedication of our global team, the best in all of travel and leisure. I want to thank our more than 160,000 team members, both ship and shore, for their hard work in delivering these first quarter results. They go above and beyond every day to deliver unforgettable happiness to our guests by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every place we visit, life we touch and ocean we sail. I also want to thank our travel agent partners, our loyal guests, our investors, our destination partners and all of our stakeholders for their continued support.

With that, I'll turn the call over to David to walk you through the quarter and our guidance in more detail.

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our first quarter 2026 results, then I'll provide color on our full year March guidance and finish up with some additional insights into PROPEL. Once again, we delivered record first quarter operating results with strong execution, resulting in us beating guidance on revenue, costs and net income.

Net income of $275 million was more than 55% higher than the prior year and exceeded our December guidance by $40 million or $0.03 per share. The outperformance versus December guidance was driven by 3 factors. First, revenue favorability contributed $0.04 per share as yields were up 2.7% versus the prior year on top of the more than 7% increase in the first quarter last year. This was over 100 basis points better than our December guidance, driven by continued strong close-in demand which drove higher ticket prices and stronger onboard spending. Yield improvement was driven by increases on both sides of the Atlantic.

Second, cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day, or ALBD, were up 5.3% versus the prior year. This is more than 0.5 point better than our December guidance and contributed $0.01 per share. This benefit was driven by cost-saving initiatives that we firmed up during the quarter. Third, the remaining $0.02 per share of operational favorability came from improvements in depreciation expense, net interest expense and fuel consumption, where we delivered a 4.7% year-over-year reduction. Total first quarter operational improvements of $0.07 per share are fully reflected in our full year guidance. However, those first quarter operational improvements were partially offset by the unfavorable impact of fuel price and currency costing $0.04 per share.

Turning now to our full year March guidance. Our full year guidance calls for earnings per share of $2.21. This includes the first quarter operational improvement of $0.07 per share as well as an additional $0.04 per share of improvement in depreciation expense, fuel consumption, net interest expense and income tax expense over the remaining 3 quarters of 2026. However, that $0.11 per share operational improvement for 2026 will be more than offset by a $0.38 per share headwind from higher fuel prices driven by recent geopolitical events and reflected in our March guidance.

Given the recent spike in volatility in fuel prices, we believe it is reasonable to assume some moderation over the balance of the year rather than base our guidance on current elevated spot prices. As a result, our guidance assumes the purchase price of fuel for the month of March and early April, Brent averaging $90 per barrel for the remainder of April and May, Brent averaging $85 per barrel for the third quarter and Brent averaging $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter. A 10% change in our fuel cost per metric ton, excluding emission allowances, for the remainder of the year impacts our bottom line by $160 million or $0.11 per share.

Turning now to yield growth. Our March guidance assumes yield growth of approximately 2.75%, which is 25 basis points better than our December guidance and fully reflects the first quarter yield improvement. Importantly, our yield assumptions for the balance of 2026 remain unchanged from our December guidance. Yield growth versus 2025 reflects both higher ticket prices and continued strength in onboard spending. It is also worth noting that full year 2026 yield growth is approximately 3.25% on a normalized basis, excluding the previously disclosed impact of the summer 2025 close-in decision to redeploy away from the planned first quarter 2026 Arabian Gulf voyages and the impacts of loyalty program accounting for Carnival Cruise Line.

Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are now expected to be up approximately 3.1%, which is 15 basis points better than our December guidance and reflects the first quarter improvement. Like yields, our cruise costs assumptions for the balance of 2026 remain unchanged from our December guidance. On a normalized basis, cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are up just 2.3% after factoring in the partial year of operating expenses associated with Celebration Key, Grand Bahama and RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay as well as the timing of certain expenses between the years.

In addition, you will see that our cost growth decelerates from the first half of 2026 to the second half. The main drivers of the deceleration are the sliding of some costs from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first half of 2026, which will impact our first half, second half comparison, as we indicated on the December earnings call. The full year operation of Celebration Key, Grand Bahama, which opened in July 2025, will also impact our first half, second half comparison. This comparison is also affected by the seasonalization of advertising and repair and maintenance spending.

I will close with a few additional thoughts on PROPEL. As Josh said, at its core, PROPEL is about converting strong and growing demand into higher returns and stronger operating cash flow while maintaining disciplined capacity growth and a strong balance sheet. Our confidence in achieving our PROPEL targets is grounded in the same strategies, priorities and disciplined execution that have delivered strong results and momentum in recent years. It is also supported by realistic assumptions and performance metrics that give us confidence in the path ahead.

From 2026 through 2029, we expect moderate yield growth on a CAGR basis and low single-digit CAGR growth in cruise costs, excluding fuel per available lower berth day. Because we expect yield growth to grow faster than costs, we believe this will drive significant margin expansion. Achieving these targets will require heightened cost discipline and a focus on further strengthening our industry-leading cost structure. We will drive operational efficiencies and realize scale benefits within ship operating expenses and G&A through technology and sourcing, resulting in decelerating cost growth throughout the period.

While it is true we are announcing PROPEL at a time of heightened volatility, these targets are about the long-term trajectory of our business, for which I have great optimism. And I say that based on very relevant experience. During my time at Carnival, we have managed through so many challenges, 9/11, the global financial crisis, the Arab Spring uprisings, COVID and the Ukraine war, just to name a few. And we have always come away demonstrating our ability to execute and achieve new record results while building resilience and growing stronger. I expect no less as we look ahead to our future.

Operator, we're now ready to open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Robin Farley of UBS.

I wonder if you could just give us a little insight into when you were thinking about your long-term targets. Did anything change from 4 weeks ago aside from obviously the changes in fuel? Just wondering how anything in the last month would have impacted your longer term, the other indicators. And then just as a follow-up on the share repurchase, if you could just spell out a little clearly what dividend and share repurchase over the next 3 years. I mean I think I can back into the math from what your dividends are and your total capital return. It's just a significant step-up from what you had done pre-COVID. So I just want to make sure that we're thinking about that right.

So first, sorry for the technical delays. We got hung up on, which is not good when you're the speakers. So with respect to the long-term targets, I mean, at the end of the day, they're long-term targets and we have a lot of confidence in our ability to deliver over that period. With respect to the current situation and what its impact could be, I'm not going to speculate on how it's going to play out, but we do have very minimal exposure to that region. We didn't have any this year because of the decisions we took and we've already made that decision for next year. And we have the ability to move our assets as everybody knows. So we feel very good about the long-term trajectory. We certainly didn't just do it based on fuel prices from 2025. We thought about this and stress-tested it in various scenarios and it's something that we do believe strongly that we can deliver.

With respect to the capital allocation, remember if you think about what the world looked like 10 years ago versus where we are today, our profile is very, very different. We've got no ships this year. We've got one ship a year thereafter. We are generating a lot more cash than we used to. And even with the spending that we're investing, as we noted, in our materials, in ourselves, which is quite important, including the destination strategy and revitalization plans for our brands, it still leaves us with a tremendous amount of free cash flow that we can give back. And we will do just that. And you should expect both the dividend and the initial authorization of $2.5 billion. Those are starting points, and we'll progress from there.

Our next question is coming from Steve Wieczynski of Stifel.

Congrats, Josh, on the strong results here. So I guess, first of all, it seems like the booking environment remains very healthy at this point. But Josh, wondering if you could maybe walk us through what you've seen from a booking perspective for both your North American and your EAA brands. I guess what I'm trying to understand here is if there's been any material differences in the bookings across your brands. And then also maybe you've seen any changes in your cancellation rates as we head into the summer, specifically around I assume it would probably be European cruises this summer.

Yes. So let me start with the cancellation question. We're really not seeing anything significant to talk about with respect to cancellation trends. Our onboard spend have been consistently strong as we got out of Q1 and headed into Q2. So with respect to the last 3 weeks, I'd say as -- feels like d j vu, like last year. People see what's going on. There is a lack of understanding about what it means for the world, what it means for me personally, and then life normalizes. And we're in the process of life normalizing over this period. We've seen -- it's not surprising that if you think about potential impact and how people are thinking about things, to the extent that we're talking about sailings that are Eastern Mediterranean, that's got a different profile than Western Mediterranean. That's got a different profile from Northern Europe and then obviously Caribbean, Alaska, Australia.

So overall, we're actually pretty pleased with how things have been progressing. Certainly volumes have been stronger for places like Alaska and the Caribbean. But it's not like there's just this line around Europe. I mean Northern Europe is going quite well. We've made progress even with our Eastern European sailings when it comes to the book percentage that we're at today versus where we are a few weeks ago. Would it have been higher and more activity had all of this not happened? Absolutely. But one of the strategies that we had going into wave was pull forward the occupancy, pull forward our bookings. And we did just that. So we entered into this period with a nice amount of headroom, which we've maintained overall. So there's going to be ins and outs as we move through this. And I'm sure there's going to be reverberations that we don't know about yet, but the teams are managing to the curve and being reactive because the world is pretty reactive right now.

Okay. Got you. And then second question, Josh, if I could ask one about PROPEL. If we think about the target of greater than 50% EPS growth from '25 through '29, so simple math is going to say, okay, 2025 adjusted EPS, I think, was whatever it was, $2.25, I think. That would say 2029 EPS should be at a worst-case greater than $3.38, $3.40, somewhere in that range. I guess with 2026 EPS now taking a pretty significant step backwards just because of fuel, is it fair to kind of assume that you guys feel pretty comfortable that you'll be able to absorb pretty much higher fuel prices over a longer period of time? Am I kind of thinking about that the right way?

Yes, I think that's right. Over a longer period of time, we'll take what the world has and we'll perform in any environment at the end of the day. So clearly, we'd be performing better if fuel was back at $60, $70, but we don't plan our lives around a world where fuel stays at $60 to $70. That's why our focus forever, and will continue to be forever, is use less because whatever the price is, if we use less, we do better. And if you think about our trajectory on our consumption, if you look at the per unit consumption decreases that we've had across the fleet, if you go back to where we were in 2019 versus where we are in 2026, we're saving this year alone about $650 million. If you go back just to 2023 and you look at where we are today, that alone is $250 million, thanks to the consumption savings that we are hyper-focused on and we'll continue to do that.

Our next question is coming from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

Great. So Josh, maybe could you elaborate on the curve and your comments on bookings well into 2028? Maybe if you could just speak to pricing power or areas of opportunity that you see across the portfolio today.

I want to make sure I understand your question. So can you say it a different way?

Yes. Maybe if you could just elaborate on the strength on further out bookings. I think you cited well into 2028 and just where you see the greatest areas of pricing power across the portfolio. And I know we've talked about your portfolio approach and how that separates you from some of your peers in the industry.

Yes, I mean, I think the answer is yes. We've seen the trajectory of our brands in a pretty holistic way, leaning forward across the board when it comes to lengthening the booking curve. So it's almost uniform that people are at the far end of their booking curve. So everybody's been taking opportunities to really put things out for sale with more lead time, driving further sales and managing the curves. I don't know if I'd say differently than they used to. It's really just evolving. We've got tools that we've invested in to help us be better at our jobs in that respect. We've got -- we've brought in a lot of folks over the last few years that have great capability that are leading teams of revenue managers that are really pushing the envelope.

And I think overall, we are becoming more mainstream, right? We're becoming more mainstream as a product. Our loyal guests really enjoy what they get with us and know to book in advance as far as they can so they get the best of whatever they want for their particular vacation. So I think it's all the blocking and tackling that we have been working with our teams around the world around those brands to push things forward. And it is -- when we talk about bookings, we're not just -- internally, we're not just looking at this quarter. We're not just looking at full year. What are our targets for '27, which I'm not going to tell you, what are our targets for '28? How far are we going? And are we getting the right balance, right? I mean we don't want to be 100% booked on day 1 that we put things on for sale. So there is art and science behind it, but everybody's been working hard to maximize the revenue.

And then maybe, David, could you outline the drivers of ROIC above 16% in the PROPEL plan, meaning opportunities you see remaining across the portfolio, just how you're thinking about net yields relative to low- to mid-single digits historically?

As I said in the prepared remarks, our PROPEL model and the 16% was built off moderate yield growth and low-single-digit cost growth. And there's clearly, as Josh talked about, further out bookings and the revenue management, and I won't repeat all the things he said. There's clearly upside opportunity on both the revenue and the onboard areas to drive the ROIC even higher than 16%. That's not a cap. It's just a target for 2019 (sic) [ 2029 ] and beyond.

The next question is coming from Xian Siew of BNP Paribas.

Maybe just on the 2Q guidance, you did 2.7% net yield growth in 1Q and 2Q is guided at 2%. Maybe just can you talk about any reasons 2Q should maybe take a little bit of a step back? Because it sounds like underlying, there's -- demand is quite strong.

I mean honestly, our first quarter yield guidance was less than 2%. We were pretty clear that when we were kind of coming around the table again to think about the rest of the year, we kept things fairly consistent given all the noise and all the background. So there's -- every period's got differences based on dry docks, based on what day of the week the bookings, the sailings end, et cetera. But we feel that 2% is where we were and where we are, and we always try to exceed.

Okay. Great. And then maybe just on the follow-up for longer-term outlook for net yield, you kind of mentioned moderate yield growth. Could you maybe talk about what do you think is the biggest kind of drivers within that? How do we think about the building blocks, if it's the ship kind of revamps, the islands? Like, what do you think is kind of the biggest kind of drivers within that?

Well, I don't think if we're going to quantify, the biggest drivers are not going to be the revamps. I don't think the biggest drivers are going to be the destinations. I think they're going to absolutely be accretive, but those are fairly isolated ship-by-ship things that are going to be nicely supportive of the yield growth. What's really going to drive us forward is incremental improvement in the commercial space, right, in the marketing, in the revenue management, in utilization of technology that we're already utilizing to be better at lead generation, better at conversion, better at personalization, better at driving earlier engagement with booked guests so that they are booking not just the ticket, but the packages and bundles and all the experiences that we have to offer on board.

So the good thing is, if you think about where we are now versus where we were when I was kind of talking about this stuff 3 years ago, I think we've got a track record of leaning into those things and getting better every day. And not only do we have, I think, just an amazing team and amazing leaders, many of whom are new versus where we were 3 years ago, but the technology advancements to supercharge this only are going in one direction. So I think that's really where the broad-based improvements are going to be, which then get [ bolstered ] by the investments we've been making in the destinations and will continue to do so. And as you said, the refurbishments.

Our next question is coming from Brandt Montour of Barclays.

Congratulations on getting the buyback announcement today. I have a question on technology to kind of stay with that thread, Josh. How do you think about the opportunity to do more direct integrations with AI and LLM companies out there that do travel? And just given sort of the inherent complexity of the cruise product for most first-time cruisers, does that have the potential to fundamentally change the way consumers find their way to cruises?

I think it already is, right, because of the number of folks that utilize, whether it's ChatGPT or Gemini, Claude, I mean, you name it. I mean the whole nature of our interaction with the guests and how to get to our -- either our websites or our trade partners to come sail with us are in flight. I do think -- and so the teams have been working for a while now and will continue to do that on optimizing how we show up in those AI engines as opposed to the old days where we were just talking about Google search.

I think the thing that's probably going to be a little slower for the cruise industry because of what you said versus what you see in places like Walmart and things that are a little bit more easy to navigate and easy to know what you're looking for and find it at the price that it's listed for is we are more complicated. There is no doubt. We're not a commodity. We are an experience. And so I'm sure it will come at some point, but we'll be on the tail end of that versus what we're already starting to see in select types of retail experiences.

And I think with respect to our travel agents, we've been saying this forever, they are an incredibly important piece of our business. I don't expect that to change anytime soon. They are great at providing newcomers access to us. And they too, just like we are and just like every other company is, are working on, what does it mean to be a travel agent in a world of AI and optimizing their operations around that too? So I think it's going to lift -- a tide that's going to lift all boats.

That's really helpful thoughts there. A different question would be on the longer-term targets. You just gave a great rundown, Josh, of how you think you're going to be able to drive yield growth. But just sort of honing in on your ship orders, 3 years ago, I think we all kind of thought that you'd see this -- lower, less ship orders, 1 to 2 per year. You're doing 1 per year. It looks like you guys are doubling down on that for the next sort of period of time. When you take this model out, obviously your fleet age will start to stand out against peers. And I want to know if you think that the industry has changed or your business has changed and that doesn't matter as much anymore?

I mean for those on the call that got to experience us going on the AIDA ship that came out of the AIDA Evolution program, an 18-year-old ship can look and feel like a 1-year-old ship and be maintained in that condition. So I don't think getting older in and of itself is going to be a driver of our ability to execute on our revenue strategy. I was, I am and I continue -- will be for looking forward to be of the belief that by having very measured capacity growth, we really get to focus on improving the underlying business and keep focused on that. And there is a tremendous amount of opportunity to do that.

And yes, newbuilds are great, but we've got 96 ships, right? Newbuilds are not in the grand scheme of things. The thing in any couple of years or a few year period is going to lift us up. What's going to lift us up is the 96 ships. And we have every intention of keeping this fleet going for a nice time while we do introduce new capacity over time in a measured way. So I don't know if that answers your question, but I feel that the approach has been working and will continue to work. These are very long-term assets that people enjoy. And some of the best yields and some of the best NPS we get are on some of our older ships.

Our next question is coming from Trey Bowers of Wells Fargo.

Thanks for the color earlier in the call about what you guys are kind of seeing in the Med and Europe given the conflict, but it seems like we could take out of that, that maybe some of the non-European trends, are they coming in even better than you might have expected? And maybe in that, could you just break down kind of what you're seeing in the Caribbean and maybe Alaska?

First thing I'd say is it is early days, right? We're literally a few weeks into something that has been completely unexpected, and it's working its way through the global backdrop. So yes, Caribbean's been a bit stronger. Alaska has been strong and it continues to be strong. We've been very pleased for a very long time about how Alaska for 2026 was shaping up. I'd be saying the same thing if we were having a call at the end of February.

And with respect to Europe, I mean, we are very well booked in Europe to begin with. And so like I said, we had been pushing to really produce a good occupancy advantage and we did that. There is absolutely not the pace that we would have expected over the last few weeks versus a world where this wasn't happening in the backdrop, but not to an extent that there's much to talk about, just an extent that, yes, things have shifted a little bit here and there. And I have no idea how it's going to play out. Now cards on the table. I don't know. So we'll have to see how this develops, and we'll respond accordingly.

Yes, fair. And I have to ask, David, when we go through these periods of fuel spikes like this, and when and if things settle down, does this kind of maybe reintroduce the idea of just trying to smooth fuel prices a little bit through reintroducing a hedging program at some point?

Yes. No, thank you. So listen, we think about that question all the time, regardless of the situation and circumstance when we talk about it. But at the moment, you know what we've done over the past decade, and we'll continue to evaluate and rethink it.

I lost a bet. It took us until 10:46 for someone to ask about fuel hedging.

Our next question is coming from Ben Chaiken of Mizuho.

Maybe on free cash flow, the $14 billion is very compelling. I think you framed it as 40% of operating cash flow. Does that -- if I'm not mistaken, does that kind of signal that you think about capital return and free cash flow independently? In other words, capital return in any year is agnostic of the CapEx in that year. And maybe along the same lines, for the implied buyback portion of that $14 billion, do you expect that to be smooth or will you be opportunistic? And then one follow-up.

Yes. So from an -- we do expect to be opportunistic in terms of the stock buybacks. We've said that repeatedly. As Josh said, we're starting with $2.5 billion. And clearly, over this period with $14 billion of expected shareholder returns, there'll be additional stock buybacks. In terms of the allocation, you got to remember that our CapEx is reasonably predictable over time because we have laid out one ship per year. And remember, we're only talking about '26 through '29 here. So it's one ship a year.

Our non-newbuild CapEx also has some level of predictability, although we don't know the exact number every single year. This year it's $2.4 billion. And so as a result of that, we were able to triangulate into 40% of cash from operations, or more than 40% of cash from operations being returned to shareholders. And it's a combination of the reinvestment in the business, as Josh said, the $15 billion, and $14 billion -- more than $14 billion probably going to shareholders. That's the way we think about it as opposed to because of the predictability.

Okay. Got it. And then, David, in the past you've talked about there being more costs within NCC this year versus CapEx. You didn't necessarily talk about it on this call, but I think over the last 6, 12 months you've brought it up. Have you kind of contemplated this anymore, meaning is '26 an anomaly? Or is the level of cost attribution between OpEx and CapEx the right way to think -- for this year, the right way to think about it moving forward?

Yes. So you're referring to the dry dock expense where I had indicated in December that the total dry dock -- total spending on dry dock was flat, but there was a different allocation between the costs. That's something that we're going to have to look at every single year based off of the accounting rules and what can get capitalized. So stay tuned until -- for our December guidance. But we haven't, of course, we're just beginning to work through the 2027 capital expenditure plan and dry dock schedule. So there's a lot more for us to evaluate before we can give that answer.

Was there something unique that you're doing this year on the dry docks? I appreciate it moves year-to-year, but just to maybe double-click there.

Yes. There wasn't anything in particular that was unique. Remember, in total, the dry dock expense, and I mean, we're talking about well over $1 billion between all the ships in the year. And so a very small movement of even 1% or 2% between CapEx and expense can have an impact on the percentage increase of net cruise costs without fuel. And that's what it was. It was just a couple of percent movement which had a -- I think it was a 0.6% impact on the net cruise costs without fuel.

Our next question is coming from Conor Cunningham of Melius Research.

Just on the -- so I understand that you're 85% booked for 2026, but just around fuel recapture a little bit, on the remaining 15%, does your pricing algorithms immediately kick in? And then in the same context as that, do you worry about demand destruction at all just because some of your competitors obviously do hedge and you guys don't? And like, does that put you at a disadvantage as a result on the pricing side?

Yes. So the answer is with respect to how we manage our revenue, the price of fuel is somewhat irrelevant. And certainly immediate swings are irrelevant. We price as much as the market can bear. We price as much as we -- as our guest base and potential guest base is willing to pay. And if they were willing to pay $10 more because of fuel, they should just be willing to pay $10 more. And so it is a little bit separated. Now clearly, when we do our itinerary planning and long-term planning, the price of fuel is a very big factor in how we set the itineraries and getting the balance right between the revenue that we'll generate and the cost that we incur.

But with respect to how we manage the business day-to-day, now, I mean, we're really trying to maximize. And we're talking about $7 billion of EBITDA. So I don't see a disadvantage one way or another with respect to the price of fuel at any one given time. People don't tell us we got a great advantage when we're not hedged and the price is low. So this kind of conversation, we only talk about this when fuel goes in one way and not the other. I do think, I'll go back to what I was saying before, the focus on consumption is really, when you think about the long-term trajectory of our business and the long-term trajectory of our earnings power, using less is the only solution to the price of fuel.

And that $650 million that I said, between 2019 and this year, the savings that we'll get in this year alone because of the consumption savings, that's nicely higher than the over $500 million impact we're seeing because of the spike in fuel. So that will remain our focus. Now I don't take away from what David said. We'll always look at it, right? And the world can change and we could take a different view in the future, but that's not the focus. The focus for the health of the long-term business is to use less.

Totally appreciate that. And I hate to ask another fuel-related question. Just given the -- like, I mean, if you look at your current pricing for fuel right now, it is obviously below current spot, and it's below the forward curve. And I totally appreciate it's impossible to factor like where that's all going. But like, why use those numbers? Why not assume something higher and then kind of if it comes in better, great. Just the idea around where you're marking oil at today in general?

We literally set our guidance on Monday and that was the curve on Monday. We rounded, but that was the curve on Monday. Since then it's gone up, it's gone down. It will continue to change. We tried to give you information so people can model whatever you believe or whatever is happening, but we just had to draw a line in the sand sometime and just move forward.

Yes, we gave you the sensitivity.

Well, if you know where it is next week, let me know.

Yes. If I know where it is next week, I'm retiring because I know the future and I can make a lot of money doing a lot of things. And I'm not the person that was betting on the prediction market in advance of all the stuff that's going on.

Our next question is coming from Chris Stathoulopoulos of SIG.

Josh, you've been in this seat now for a few years. You've navigated some difficult landscapes. I've always said with a lot of confidence and transparency. But one of your peers in the travel space is, I guess, giving some straight talk around what an extended period of elevated energy prices might mean. So you've gotten around Russia, Ukraine, tariffs, Liberation Day, other things. Walk us through, I guess, your plan. So in the short term, you're talking about lower consumption. Longer term though, if we're in a period of 16, 24 months of $100-plus oil, just how should we understand, I guess, internally? What are the areas of focus? How should we think about your ability to respond via pricing and perhaps changing itineraries and the like? Just want to understand, like, I guess the mid- to longer-term playbook in an extended or elevated energy cycle.

Sure. Yes. So I'd say, from a consumption standpoint, you've got, as you said, shorter term and longer term. Shorter term, there's still things that we can do on balance that will improve our consumption savings and really being even more maniacal about simple things that can save a lot of money with respect to how we're managing the sailing times and making sure we get in just to the port right in time and leave on time that cuts your fuel usage and how we manage the HVAC. I mean all those things, there's still opportunity to, like I said, be more focused.

On the longer term, yes, we absolutely have the ability to change itineraries, to make decisions about number of ports that will stop off at particular -- in particular future scenarios. I would say we have been really strategic in thinking about the fuel side of our investments in our destinations in the Caribbean. And we are looking to -- and we have been looking to create a bit of a strategic fence for ourselves where we have great opportunities to go to great places that are very, very close to the home ports that we sail from. And things like Celebration Key and the pier that's going up now at RelaxAway are incredibly useful.

We also have things in the pipeline on the investment side which we call -- we've already cycled through our Service Power Package 1, which cuts a lot of consumption on the hotel side. We already have our plans for Service Power Package 2, and we are incredibly bullish on that. And if it's warranted, we can always speed that up and get even more consumption savings. I don't -- I will be honest with you, though. I don't know how to respond to your question in total because I don't know what the world looks like in a year if fuel is at $110 and what that means. I just don't know.

I would remind everybody that we have a lot of things going for us when it comes to what it is that we have to offer. Number one, we are still a huge value gap to land. We provide experiences at a much lower price point than people can find on land. And if people are looking to stretch their dollar further, it goes further with us. Second, we do make it convenient for people to get on our ships. About 50% of the folks that travel with us drive to get there. And that is incredibly powerful if people are looking to avoid cost, cost of air. So we will continue to, as you said, navigate challenges as they come.

And I think over the last, call it, 5, 6 years, we have shown how much agility and nimbleness we've got and ingenuity to overcome some pretty significant things and come out stronger. Oh, you have one more? This might be the last question though. Go ahead.

All right. Well, wanted to give you 2 things. So we can do our math on what it means for implied EPS growth through '29 off of the new guide. But if you could talk a little bit more about how, I guess, things like YODA and AI. I know there was an earlier question in AI, but I have been getting some questions on how AI might perhaps unbundle and take away some potential pricing power that you've been able to extract, if you will, because of this frictionless approach or bundling around purchasing.

And then also, there was a chart back in your SEA Change deck from a few years ago that had future state capacity by brand, and I wonder if we're at a point where -- I think it was 30% plus for Carnival Corp where that is contemplated similar-ish level for PROPEL by '29. Realize there's a lot there. Maybe if you just want to talk about, I guess AI or...

I got to be honest with you, and I apologize. I didn't understand either question. So...

Okay. Well, maybe if you could talk about -- you've talked about the moderate yield growth. And in the past, you've done a lot of -- you've spoken about YODA and how that differentiates what you do at the core. And there's been some questions around AI, which perhaps is maybe at conflict with that. And then on the actual capacity by brand, back in the SEA Change slide, you had future state, which was '26. I'm assuming that FY '29 contemplates a similar sort of distribution of capacity by brand type.

Okay. So as far as the AI goes, I think I understand where you're going. I mean AI has the opportunity to certainly be a disruptor in society in a lot of different ways. AI also has an opportunity to be harnessed for the benefit of supercharging what we do, including how we manage YODA. I mean we're already starting to utilize some pretty advanced technology in how we operate our business on the revenue side. And I think it's still early days. So I think the whole world is going to move at pace, taking advantage of what technology is going to do for businesses and for consumers. With respect to the capacity, are you asking basically whether our brand mix is going to be relatively consistent for 2029 versus where we are now?

Yes.

Got it. So I mean, yes, I mean, more or less. I mean you've got the road map, right, which is really there's just effectively 2.5 ships in that period that are going to Carnival. So Carnival will be a bit heavier weighted in '29 versus where we are today because they're the only ones that have ships on order over this PROPEL period, and then we start introducing some for AIDA. And then obviously, we will order more ships for the 2030s. It will come at some point and we'll share that with you when there's something to share. But it's all going to be in the vein of intentionally measured capacity growth.

So I apologize again for the delay in getting to the Q&A session, but I do appreciate the questions. And thanks to everybody for joining. Be safe, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines at this time or log off the webcast and enjoy the rest of your day.

Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation & plc Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Beth Roberts, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Beth. You may begin.

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our CFO, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison.

Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to today's press release and our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. We will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures, including yields, cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, ROIC and related statistics for all, which are on a net basis or adjusted as defined, unless otherwise stated.

A reconciliation to U.S. GAAP is included in our earnings press release and our investor presentation. References to ticket prices yields and cruise costs without fuel are in constant currency unless we note otherwise. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found. For further information on our proposed DLC unification and shift in legal incorporation, please visit carnivalcorp.com/unify.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.

Thanks, Beth. It is definitely gratifying to begin this call by saying we delivered yet another very strong quarter to finish a fantastic year. Not only did we deliver historical fourth quarter highs for revenues, yields, operating income and EBITDA, we achieved these record results in each and every quarter of the year and for the full year. 2025 was clearly another step change forward for us. We delivered over $3 billion to the bottom line, a 60% increase over 2024 and an all-time high net income for our company. This was over 30% greater than our initial guidance.

Full year yields improved more than 5.5% over last year and topped our initial guidance by almost 1.5 points, driven by successful commercial execution across our industry-leading cruise lines, and all while absorbing the heightened volatility we encountered periodically throughout the year. We also brought unit costs in over 1 point better than initial guidance at a 2.6% increase for the year with successful cost management mitigating inflation, higher dry dock expenses and the inclusion of costs for our amazing new destination Celebration Key Grand Bahama. This combination pushed operating margins and EBITDA margins up by over 250 basis points year-over-year, leading to the highest operating income per ALBD in almost 20 years and EBITDA per ALBD reaching an all-time high. For all of these incredible achievements, full credit goes to our hard-working and dedicated team, the best in all of travel and leisure for the consistent outperformance throughout the year that resulted in ROIC in excess of 13%, the highest level this company has seen in 19 years.

Having said that, we are very well positioned to top 2025's fantastic results in 2026. We are already about 2/3 booked in line with where we were a year ago at this time and at historical high prices for both North America and Europe. And over the last 3 months, we achieved booking volumes that were at record levels for both 2026 and 2027. At the same time, closing demand remains strong, as demonstrated by the outperformance in our fourth quarter by our onboard revenue per diem significantly outperforming prior year levels and our customer deposits up 7% year-over-year, hitting an all-time high for year-end.

Our book position and recent performance are all despite Michigan's U.S. consumer sentiment readings dipping quite low for several months throughout 2025, and in fact, last month dropping pretty close to its lowest level in recorded history. It is a true testament to the strength of the product offering across our portfolio of world-class cruise lines and our guests prioritizing their spending with us. In reality, the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual booking behavior continues to reinforce what we've said for a long time.

Demand for our cruise lines is proving far more resilient than traditional macro indicators would suggest. We are expecting another year of same-ship yield improvement marking our fourth consecutive year of low or mid-single-digit per DM growth. Normalizing for the accounting changes from the implementation of Carnival Cruise Line's beneficial new loyalty program and late-stage deployment changes necessitated by geopolitical uncertainties in the Arabian Gulf, we are forecasting a 3% yield increase in 2026. And while I think it's obvious, to address the question we've been getting most often, our 2026 guidance fully incorporates the 14% increase in non-Carnival Corporation capacity growth in the Caribbean taking that to a 27% increase in just 2 years as well as our 4% growth over that time period.

Now even against that backdrop, we continue to drive the business forward underscoring the advantage of our diversified global portfolio. We are also continuing to successfully mitigate inflation through effective cost management. And again, with no ship deliveries for 2026, we don't have the advantage of offsetting large cost increases with significant capacity growth. On that basis, we've guided to unit cost growth of 3.25%, which includes a partial year of operating costs from our successful new destination developments and the timing of expenses hitting in the first quarter of 2026 rather than Q4 2025. David will provide more color around the costs, but normalized just for these 2 items, net cruise cost ex fuel per ALBD are expected to be up about 2.5% for the full year. All told, in 2026, we will bring over $350 million more to the bottom line year-over-year and generate over $7.6 billion of EBITDA.

With this strong cash flow, no new ship deliveries this year and the fantastic balance sheet improvements we've made over the last 2 years, we're about a year ahead of schedule and can now embark on a capital allocation strategy that will return even more value to shareholders. Having reached a better-than-expected investment-grade leverage ratio of 3.4x at year-end, I am pleased to say we are now formally resuming our dividend at an initial rate of $0.15 per quarter, which we expect to grow responsibly over time. Reinstating the dividend reflects both our confidence in the durability of our cash generation and the structural improvements we've made to our balance sheet.

Alongside the dividend, we will continue to delever to get below 3x net debt to EBITDA, while still allowing for opportunistic share repurchases in the future. In fact, we just kick-started that a bit by calling the last of our convertible debt and in the process using some cash to take out 18 million shares. We will also have ample opportunity to deliver even greater shareholder value over time as we continue to reinvest in our future, through our disciplined newbuild program, return-generating vessel enhancement programs like our successful AIDA Evolution project, which will soon expand to several of our other brands and our ongoing destination development efforts. We see much more pricing opportunity ahead as we transition our destination strategy from what has historically been a utilitarian asset base to a marketable growth driver for years to come.

Celebration Key is a real differentiator for us and will be complemented by the expansion at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay later this year. This will soon be followed by Isla Tropicale, as we lean into the rest of our Paradise collection even harder. And as recently announced, we'll also be looking forward to a great guest experience we're developing with our partners in Ensenada, Mexico, showcasing the culture and natural beauty of Baja California, Mexico that will greatly benefit our West Coast deployments and our significant competitive lane advantage in the incredibly profitable Alaska trade will continue to serve us well for decades to come.

On top of these important attributes, cruising has clearly become a mainstream vacation alternative. And we have positioned our company with the most diversified portfolio of world-class cruise lines in the industry. And in fact, we hold the #1 or #2 brand in every major market for cruising today. Our well-recognized cruise lines have been honing in on their target markets, sharpening their marketing messages and reaching target consumers in an incredibly efficient manner. Moreover, we are continuously improving upon our yield management tools and techniques to generate the most revenue possible from our asset base.

We're also leaning into AI to further improve in areas such as marketing effectiveness and enhanced personalization and to find further efficiency gains across the business. And the good news is the price to experience ratio to land-based alternatives is still at a ridiculous value and provides enormous headroom for many years to come. and that's despite what will be an approximately 20% cumulative yield increase for us since 2023. So while we are not immune to things like the lowest consumer sentiment in years, or capacity spikes in our most concentrated market or geopolitical conflicts around the world, having 2/3 of the business on the books at higher prices underscores the resilience of our business model. Against all of that background noise, we plan to deliver another double-digit earnings growth on top of the 60% increase we achieved in 2025, leaving us well positioned to continue to outperform in the consumer discretionary and travel space yet again.

Again, thank you so much to each of our team members, ship and shore, who have delivered such phenomenal results in 2025 and set us up well for another step forward in 2026. At the end of the day, this is about delivering unforgettable happiness to over 13.5 million people around the world by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations while honoring the integrity of every ocean we sale, place we visit and life we touch, and that is something we do incredibly well.

Thanks also goes out to our travel agent partners who have contributed immensely to this success. Likewise, a heartfelt thanks is owed to our loyal guests, investors, destination partners and other stakeholders. Suffice it to say, these accomplishments reflect the effort, support and loyalty we've received from all of you. I continue to be very proud of what we've been able to accomplish together while at the same time, remain incredibly excited about the runway ahead that leads to continued improvement to our business and results for years to come.

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our 2025 fourth quarter results. Next, I will provide a recap of our 2025 deleveraging and refinancing efforts. Then I'll give some color on our 2026 full year December guidance as well as some key insights into our 2026 first quarter and then finish up with some comments on the recommended simplification of our corporate structure.

Turning to the summary of our fourth quarter results. Net income of $454 million was nearly 2.5x the prior year and exceeded September guidance by $154 million or $0.11 per share as we outperformed once again. The performance versus September guidance was driven mainly by two things: First, favorability in revenue were $0.03 per share as yields came in up 5.4% compared to the prior year, and that was on top of last year's robust increase of nearly 7%. This was 110 basis points better than September guidance, driven by continued strong close-in demand, which resulted in higher ticket prices and an acceleration of strong onboard spending. The increase in yield was driven by improvements on both sides of the Atlantic.

Second, cruise cost without fuel per available lower-berth day, or ALBD, were only up 0.5% compared to the prior year. This was 2.7 points better than September guidance and was worth $0.04 per share. The favorability was driven by both cost-saving initiatives, which we firmed up during the quarter as well as timing of certain expenses between the years. The balance of the favorability $0.04 per share was a combination of better fuel prices, favorability in fuel consumption and fuel mix, slightly less depreciation than expected favorable net interest expense and a variety of other small factors.

Next, I will provide a recap of our 2025 deleveraging and refinancing efforts. We have reached a meaningful turning point achieving an investment-grade net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.4x as of the end of the fiscal year 2025. We successfully completed our $19 billion refinancing plan in less than a year. These efforts strengthened our balance sheet by simplifying our capital structure, reducing interest expense and debt, optimizing our future debt maturities and enhancing our financial flexibility. In total, we have reduced our debt by over $10 billion since the peak less than 3 years ago. These efforts and our strong continued operating performance resulted in multiple credit rating upgrades throughout the year, culminating and reaching investment grade with Fitch and being one notch away with a positive outlook from S&P. All of this is expected to result in an over $700 million improvement in net interest expense in 2026 as compared to 2023, which is fully reflected in our guidance.

Now I will provide some color on our 2026 full year December guidance. On top of the 17% yield growth over the last 2 years, we are expecting to deliver further yield improvement in 2026 with our guidance forecasting an increase of approximately 2.5%, which is really 3% when normalized for the Carnival Cruise Line loyalty program accounting and the last-minute changes we made to our Arabian Gulf deployment and certain dry dock schedules. The 2.5% yield growth is worth over $0.35 per share when compared to 2025, which is a result of both an increase in ticket prices and higher onboard spending, which has continued to remain strong.

Turning to costs. Cruise costs without fuel per ALBD are expected to be up approximately 3.25% costing $0.27 per share for 2026 versus 2025. This is really a normalized rate of 2.5% when factoring in two things. First, operating expenses for full year operations of Celebration Key Grand Bahama and the midyear opening of our new peer at RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay will impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by 0.5 point. Second, the sliding of some costs from fourth quarter 2025 to 2026 will impact our overall year-over-year cost comparisons by about [ 0.3 ] point.

The three main drivers of our normalized 2.5% cost increase are: First, 3% attributable to inflation and higher advertising expenses; second, about 0.6 point from dry dock expense on our income statement. In 2026, after optimizing our dry dock schedule, we are expecting 604 dry dock days. While the total actual spending for our dry docks in 2026 is expected to be roughly in line with 2025 as a result of the nature of the 2026 work more of the spending is classified as operating expense and less as capital expenditures. And third, cost mitigation of approximately 1.1% from efficiency initiatives and further leveraging our industry-leading scale. Regulatory costs related to emission allowances and higher income taxes driven by Pillar 2 will cost us $0.11 per share.

Benefits from net interest expense, fuel consumption and capacity were partially offset by increased depreciation for a net favorable impact of $0.06 per share. The net impact of fuel price and currency is expected to favorably impact 2026 by $0.20 per share, with fuel prices favorable by $0.17 and the change in currency exchange rates adding $0.03.

In summary, putting all these factors together, our net income guidance for full year 2026 is over $3.45 billion, an improvement of more than 12% versus 2025 or $0.23 per share. In addition, this will result in $7.6 billion of EBITDA. As we mentioned on the last earnings call, for the longer term, we're targeting a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio under 3x. While I'm happy to report that even with 4 dividend payments modeled into our guidance for 2026, we are projecting to get there by the end of the year.

Before I leave our 2026 guidance, I did want to update you on the impact of Carnival Cruise Line's new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, which will now start in September 2026, impacting results for the fourth quarter. As a reminder, while the program will be cash flow positive from day 1, it does impact our yields in 2026. The impact is expected to be 0.2 point in 2026, 0.5 points in 2027, 0.2 point in 2028 and turn positive thereafter.

Now some key insights into our 2026 first quarter. Yield improvement is approximately 1.6% or 2.4% when normalizing for the last-minute changes to our Arabian Gulf deployment and certain dry docks in the first quarter. First quarter 2026 has a difficult prior year comparison as 2025 was at a record level with a 7.3% increase compared to 2024. In addition, the quarter is being affected by the Caribbean double-digit industry-wide growth along with the first quarter having the largest absolute quarterly capacity in the Caribbean during the year, as well as the impact of volatility in the first half of last year had on our advanced booking curve. Adjusted cruise costs, excluding fuel per ALBD are expected to be up approximately 5.9% compared to the prior year and higher than the full year. This results from the fact that all of the items that are expected to impact the full year will have a greater impact on the first quarter.

I'll finish up with some comments on the recommended simplification of our corporate structure. We are recommending to our shareholders that we unify the dualistic company or DLC framework into a single company listed solely on the New York Stock Exchange. This aligns with the marketplace. We are aware of 15 dual-listed companies or DLCs created over the last 4 decades, including our DLC in 2003. A substantial number of those have been unified in recent years for many of the same reasons we are recommending our unification. Today, we know of only 3 other major DLCs remaining.

Under our plan, Carnival plc shareholders would receive Carnival Corporation shares on a one-for-one basis and Carnival plc shares and ADSs would be delisted. Carnival plc would become a wholly owned U.K. subsidiary of Carnival Corporation. This would create a single global share price, streamlined governance and reporting and reduce administrative costs. We believe we will also increase liquidity for stock trades and increased weighting of the stock in major U.S. stock indices. We intend to hold meetings of our shareholders in April to consider the recommendation. Subject to shareholders approving our recommendation, we intend to complete the unification in the second quarter of 2026.

Now operator, let's open the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

Great. That was a lot of information that covered a lot of the initial questions. Maybe just one thing when we think about your guidance. It sounds like if we were just taking up the accounting accrual, it will be closer to sort of 2.8% yield growth for next year. You mentioned that a lot of the beat in Q4 similar to what you said during the year was this acceleration in onboard spend and better close-in demand. Would you say that you -- when you're thinking about your guidance for 2026, are you factoring in that those things will continue at that level? Or are you kind of assuming that those would be at the rate that you'd originally thought? In other words, I'm just thinking about whether that acceleration and good close in demand is in your guidance or that would really be upside to your guidance?

Robin, so I think the fair thing to say, look, this is our guidance based on what we expect to happen at this point in time when we look into 2026, taking into account the business we've got on the books, the momentum we've got and the fact that the world changes on a pretty daily basis. And so we're always going to try to continue the momentum on the onboard side. We're always going to try to make sure that the close-in bookings are going to hopefully beat our expectations. But -- at this point in time, it's truly our best guess. And as we always do around this time of year, you could say that we started early. It always starts early at this point, which I do believe, and it's really something that takes off as we get into the latter part of November. We're still right in the mix of it, as you know. And so we do need some more time to see how it all develops.

Okay. Great. And then you alluded to the increase in Caribbean capacity and a lot of that really is focused on Q1. Typically, at this point, right, you would be over 80% booked for Q1? Or if you could just kind of remind us where that is? I know you mentioned kind of overall for the year and that your overall for the year in line with those record highs. Would you say for Q1 that you're further ahead than typical or sort of in line with typical just when we think about how far past the point of digesting anything in the Caribbean is already -- has already happened?

Yes. I mean for our Q1 sailings, there's not that much left to go. And we are, at least at this point in time, we're a little bit better positioned tiny bit versus last year on the fringes. So not much to say about the first quarter.

Our next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

Congratulations on the dividend and the results. So the first question is on the bookings. You guys called out the momentum and it was clear in the release in the commentary. We had heard that there had been some slightly less robust demand, still good, but it's just not quite what some folks have seen last year. So just wondering from a revenue management perspective, as you guys have chosen to take any volume at the expense is slightly less pricing growth this year, if that was a strategy at all for you guys?

Yes. Thank you for the question. We're -- as you said, we -- our revenue managers brand by brand, voyage-by-voyage are doing the right things to maximize ultimately the amount of revenue we have in the bank by the time the ship comes back to port. And so the momentum has been good. We're doing things that we think are going to continue to help support the guidance and support the business, not only for 2026, but for 2027 and even some that we're getting into 2028. So we feel good about the way our teams are going about managing the curve.

Okay. That's great. And then on the Caribbean commentary, we hear about that capacity lift. A lot of it is in the close end market, 3- and 4-day itineraries. I don't know if you want to comment in terms of your exposure to that market specifically or if you could get in the weeds and kind of help us understand if you have a little bit of different mix versus what you guys see coming into that market for this first quarter specifically?

I actually don't have it offhand with respect to the first quarter. But clearly, there is -- there's all sorts coming into the Caribbean, right? You've got the 7 others, you got the shorts from others. When it comes to us, Carnival has been America's crews line operating in the Caribbean on shorts for, I don't know, 5 decades. And they'll continue to do that and do that thoughtfully. We like the portfolio approach we're taking even into the Caribbean because -- when you think about our mix and you look at the first quarter, 20% of our Caribbean capacity is actually from our European brands that have flare programs going into places like Barbados and Dominica, and it works very well for us. So probably in a roundabout way to answer your question, there is short, there is 7 nighters, and there's things that are even longer, and we play in all of it.

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Congrats on another nice quarter. So Josh, could you elaborate on the momentum carrying into '26 that you cited, specifically maybe the cadence of booking volumes that you've seen up through holiday, prices in North America and Europe, which I think you cited at historical highs? And maybe even to say it a different way, have you seen anything irrational at all? And does your guidance for the 3% normalized yields for the year, does that require today's level of momentum to sustain? Did you bake in benefit for Celebration Cay Half Moon? Is there anything in there for lapping up against the tariff volatility from a year ago that you saw in bookings? And did you put anything in at all for stimulus in terms of potential benefit?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Matt. Let me see if I can answer it holistically. So as a starting point, like I said in an earlier call, we are very happy with the momentum that's taken us through the end of the first quarter and into the last few weeks and volume is up nicely. And we're doing that the way that we always do that, which is managing the curve and putting out our product and our experiences to our guests who are looking for value, and that's what we do, and that's what we've done over the last couple of years as our yields have gone up 17%, and we'll continue to do that. With respect to all of the ins and outs of what's been baked in, like I said before, every forecast to some extent, is a guess and it's based on some assumptions. So as far as stimulus specifically, we didn't really bake anything into that. As far as the macroeconomic impacts that we saw this year, yes, that did play into it to some extent. I mean, we know that we're going to lap some of the volatility in the spring. And we also know we didn't have the volatility of the spring on our radar screen this time last year. Things do happen all the time, all around the world. And so we just got to be prepared to deliver in light of that. I just keep going back to the well. The one thing I'd reiterate to everybody is the fact that things happen in cycles, things happen differently in different geographies, and the diversity that we've got sets us up very well to be able to withstand volatility. And the fact that we're guiding to a normalized yield increase of 3%, I think, is very good. And I'd just remind you that if you remember, what we've talked about with respect to the volatility last spring, it was really having an impact on the second half of '25 into the first half of '26, which is what's been built in exactly to our to our forecast. So as always, we're going to try to exceed everything. That's always the goal, but this is our guess at this time. Best guess.

Great. It's great color. And then, David, just relative to your 3.25 net cruise cost outlook for the full year, what have you embedded if anything, as it relates to cost management? Last 2 quarters, you've shown really nice results on the cost side. I think you cited hundreds of items that you found to leverage scale as potential offsets the transitory cost headwinds. What have you embedded on the cost management side that could be potential offsets to the cost headwinds that are in your forecast, if anything?

Yes. So no, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we did put in about 1.1% of cost mitigation from efficiencies and other initiatives, sourcing, which leverage our scale, et cetera. So we put in a substantial amount, which offset inflation.

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Wieczynski with Stifel.

Happy holidays to all you guys. So Josh, I want to dig into the Caribbean a little bit more. And I know it's a topic you probably haven't been asked about a lot recently. But if we think about 2026, can you maybe give us some color on what you're seeing right now in terms of demand for your Caribbean products? And maybe that's not the right way to ask it, and maybe a better way to ask that is your ability to take pricing action right now in the Caribbean? And then maybe how you're thinking about pure Caribbean yields in '26 relative to your overall 2.5% yield guidance?

Yes. I mean just -- I guess I'm going to broken record myself, right? I mean, we're managing the business as we think is appropriate. I'm not going to comment on our competitors on any type of individual basis. I can just tell you our profile is 4% growth over the last 2 years between '25 and 2026. I will tell you that when the industry -- when you back us out is growing as much as it has, it's -- yes, that's just the backdrop, but we feel good about what we've been able to accomplish and how we put it into the forecast. So I'm not sure if you want to try to take it from a different angle, but we feel good about the way we've been tackling our business.

Let me ask it this way then. Caribbean yields will be positive in 2026?

Caribbean yields will absolutely help support the momentum of this business. And we look forward to talking at the end of the year when we find out what happens.

Okay. I thought I tried to ask it that way. Okay. Second question is probably going to be a David question. Obviously, we have the first quarter guidance. Wondering, David, if you could help us think a little bit more about the cadence over the last 3 quarters in terms of both yields and costs and anything we should think about in terms of timing of both of those metrics as we update our models.

Yes. So as far as cost is concerned, the first quarter was, as you saw, higher than the full year. So when you start thinking about the second, third and fourth quarter, I do believe that there will probably be all 3 quarters less than the full year. However, keep in mind there's a lot of decisions left to be made on particular items and exact spending and advertising, repair and maintenance and other things. So the seasonalization between the quarters, as I've said before, it's a tough thing to forecast. Judge us on the full year and not the quarters, but I think it will be probably less than the full year. As far as the revenue is concerned, you saw the first quarter. I mean, the prior year first half has much more difficult comparisons, higher yield increases than the back half. So relatively speaking, I would expect to see on a year-over-year basis, higher yield increases in the back half of this year than the first half.

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Chaiken with Mizuho Securities.

For '26, on the cost side, it sounds like the 2.5 normalized cost has 0.6 point for dry docks in it with more OpEx versus CapEx, to your point, David. I guess what's the more typical allocation as we think about the future, is it the '25 version of the '26 version, if that makes sense, assuming I understood you properly.

Yes. It's really difficult to depict here because, remember, we're talking about a very small movement on a large number, maybe 4% or 5% on over $1 billion. So as a result of that, it is very difficult to project what will happen in 2027. This has been going on for a long time. One is -- and it has swung both ways. I mean, one of the things that I used to -- that I've always said many times is the fact that not every dry dock day is created equal, and this is what I was referring to. Now I'm just getting to a little bit more detail of the split between CapEx and OpEx. But we're really talking about a small movement, and as we plan through 2027, we'll get better visibility into that. But on the margin, it's kind of small. So it's a handful of percent difference between the two pieces.

Okay. Got it. And then on the fuel side, there was -- there's some rounding, so it's not like perfect math, but it seems like there was quite a step-up in the emission allowance tax. I could be mistaken, but I think it's around $160 million for you in '26. Is there any way to...

The increase was about $0.06 a share or about call it, roughly $80 million. Remember, in '26, we went from -- we went to the full 100% versus '25 where we were -- it was 70% of the emissions allowances. So because of the step up, there was an increase, plus there was a slight increase in the projected cost of the EU allowances as well.

Totally. No, I got you. I was just think is there a smart way to think about the out years? Like are we -- is clearly -- is that step function over and now it just grows by what you guys do on a...

Yes, the step functions over because we're at 100%.

Our next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

So circling back to the Caribbean conversation. As we think about -- obviously, there's some one-timers in the first quarter, the Arabian Gulf deployment changes. But sort of your like-for-like numbers that you've given us, right, 2.4% for Q1 relative to 3% for the year. Is that delta primarily just the outsized mix of the Caribbean in Q1? And then to Steve's question, as we think about the shape of the year, do you ultimately feel better as we move into the year about that Caribbean piece. I think the Caribbean is a much larger chunk of Q4 as well, but it seems like based on the answer to the previous question that you feel pretty good. The Q4 yields, if anything, are probably going to be better than the full year? So just trying to understand the Caribbean dynamic in the context of all that.

Yes. James, so I think you've heard pieces of this throughout. So first of all, if you look at the first quarter versus the first half versus the second half, the comps are a lot different when it comes to the yields that we're lapping. We have the impact of the volatility in the spring, which is having the outsized impact now, not for the second half of 2026. Overall, we feel good about the business. There are some specific drivers for Q1 that we've talked about. And we'll hopefully continue to, like I said, ride the momentum and keep improving the business.

Got it. And then I guess moving to the other side of the pond. Obviously, as we think about global capacity growth for 2026, it's in a very good spot, right? The issue is that a lot of that capacity is moving from Europe into the Caribbean, I would think that given your relative exposure to some of your peers in Europe that maybe that's a net benefit to you guys? Maybe speak to that dynamic and whether or not you feel like you're sort of uniquely positioned there.

Yes. So I'd say, yes, I love it. Keep clearing out of Europe. That will be fine with us. At the end of the day, with our strategy and our approach, when you have P&O Cruises, which is the biggest investment in the U.K. and AIDA, which is the biggest and the best in Germany. And then we've got cost. It's really servicing the Southern European countries. Our European strategy, we think, is very, very effective over the long term, as we've been saying for a long time. And we also, frankly, see strength in our North American Brands European program. So we're very happy with, a, where we're sourcing; and b, where we're deploying. And so we'll continue to stick to our strategy.

Our next question comes from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs.

I wanted to get a higher level and just on the strategy that you've taken, you have fewer ships launching than some of your peers, yet you're seeing, clearly, congrats on a great yield growth. Can you maybe talk more about what you think is driving that same-ship yield growth from here? How much of that is maybe brand improvements and some of the brands that have been lagging, maybe more exposure to new to cruise? Just anything you could share, that would be helpful.

Lizzie, so I think it is our brand is getting better and better at their commercial execution up and down that silo, right, is everything from how we do the revenue management and the tools we use and the capabilities that we have. It's the performance marketing. It's the better and clearer brand messaging that's really speaking to why you shouldn't just want to take a vacation with us or cruise with us, but you want to take a cruise with that brand, that's when we know we're doing it right. And that's what we've been focused on. And of course, I always say I talk about this as the lease only because we're really so good at it. We're always trying to figure out how do we make the experience on board, meet and exceed expectations of our guests. And as you've heard me say, we have a tremendously ridiculous price to experience ratio gap between what we give to our guests and what you can get in land-based alternatives. And that value proposition, I think, is getting clearer and clearer when it comes to how we can market and talk about this.

Now because we don't have capacity growth in the next couple of years to speak of any real size. We don't have the situation where we're trying to figure out how do we get more people on to our ships. We have actually got pretty maximum capacity on our ships. So newcomers are welcome as are our loyal guests who we love, as are folks who have cruised on others and want to try one of ours. And so we're trying to appeal to as broad an audience as we can for the limited space that we have, which is a good recipe for being able to improve our revenue.

Great. And then I know you get asked this every quarter, but I'll ask it again, especially in the context of contribution to your net yield guidance this year. Celebration Key has been open a number of months now. I think you've had 1 million guests you said go there. I think we all make our own estimates of ticket yield contribution on board. Anything you can share it just participation rate, spend rate, what you are seeing on uplift and what you're expecting on the go forward and as you kind of develop RelaxAway more?

Thanks for asking again. So I'd say we celebrated just yesterday, the 1 millionth guest coming to Celebration Key, which we were ecstatic to be able to celebrate. And it will give you the same answer, which is we're getting the ticket premium that we anticipated. The output from the onboard shore operations is in line and the fuel consumption is too. So it's proceeding pretty much as we had planned. We'll continue to learn and adopt over time as we should. And we'll certainly factoring in, as you said, order some lessons learned that could be translatable to Half Moon RelaxAway. But I would say we're trying to make them very distinct and different experiences. And I think our guests are going to be delighted with that, and we can't wait to show them both for much of our capacity on the same itinerary. So we're looking forward to that.

Our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jeffries.

David, could you just help us a bit with fixed versus variable costs within where you're at today? I know we're not going to be able to predict the future necessarily, but we'd love to get a sense for how we might find leverage in the model, should it turn out to be a better year than anticipated.

So it's a difficult question to answer because we do operate at full capacity and essentially sell every cabin. So once you have that basic premise in the business. What you're basically saying is a ship size, most of your costs are fixed. However, that doesn't mean that you can find better ways and optimize the business by doing things differently, which is whether it's been using AI or other things in order to improve your cost structure. We're doing that shore side as well. Shore side, you find that obviously, somebody could say, your advertising expense is variable. But in the long run, it really isn't. So what we have to do and what we focus on continually is being most efficient with every single dollar we spend and find ways to do more with less.

Understood. And just my follow-up, one more for you, David. Sorry, Josh. So on the listing, presume that there could be a couple of bucks of cost savings upfront and ongoing, thinking a few million dollars upfront and maybe a few million as an ongoing, every little bit helps. Is that the neighborhood, David?

Yes, that's the neighborhood. And so -- and the payback on this is very quick. It's just less than 2 years. And so we feel very good about the situation, and it also streamlines reporting and simplifies governance and other things for us. So we're -- we feel very good about the decision and we finally got to it.

Our next question comes from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.

Nice quarter guys. Can I ask a little bit about consumer demand. I think you guys did a nice job of dissecting demand by geography, but maybe can you talk a little bit about the behavior of consumers between income levels because we've been hearing a lot about this K-shaped demand patterns and how they've differentiated. Are we seeing things like seaborne consumers being more resilient [indiscernible] than Carnival consumers or vice versa? Is there any way to parse that out to a better degree for us?

Yes, sure. So when you look at the segments, you got contemporary premium and luxury. We're not seeing any meaningful difference across the segments, I would say. And this has been asked before when you think about our U.S. consumer across the big brands that we've got in the U.S., excluding seaborne, the range of our of our household income is something in the $100,000 to $150,000 range. So it's certainly in the middle class. And now having said that, our guests don't live in a vacuum. They live in the same world as every other consumer does, and they see the headlines. And they're looking, I think, in a lot of cases, to figure out how do they get more value for what they're spending. That's been a pretty constant theme for a long time, and it certainly was in the fall, as you heard, not only us and people in the cruise space talk. But I think as you hear retailers talk and as we've been getting into the holiday season. Some people are looking to make sure that they are getting the most they can get for the money that they spend. And they're specifically looking to preserve and protect things that are dearly important to them like spending time with their friends and family on holidays. And when you put all of that together, that is a very nice tailwind for what we have to offer because we are an amazing value, we give an amazing experience, and we can help you make your money go further than what the land-based alternatives are. And so we feel good about the positioning. I'm happy to always have a gap to land and always be a value and close the gap over time and always have a gap and be a value. I think that's a great thing that we can provide to our guests.

Okay. And then I think there was a comment on always sailing full, but can you talk a little bit about how you guys are thinking about managing occupancy in 2026 just relative to the past, given that prices are at an all-time high and maybe the experience improves with fewer people on the ship? So maybe how is the occupancy being optimized in the year ahead?

Sure. And I think that's a fair call out. We are not mandating -- I am not mandating to my teams you better say full to the last decimal point going 3 places over, right? At the end of the day, we want people to maximize revenue. And that's why we could miss an occupancy by a little bit, and we still end up with more revenue than what our forecast was because we're managing and our teams are managing that balance, and I think doing it the right way. And so there's always going to be opportunity to figure out on the fringes whether it's worth getting the last few people on board or it's not and keep a little bit more price integrity overall and generate more in the long run. So we give our brands rightly so the leeway to do that, and they have been doing it. And I expect that, that will continue.

Our next question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

Just on the balance sheet, you've obviously done a tremendous amount of work. I think you're targeting, I think you said sub-3, David. Just -- why is that the right level? And is there a desire to go above and beyond the $2.6 billion, I think, that you have naturally coming due this year in general?

Sure. So overall, if you calculate using our guidance where we'll wind up the year, we will wind up less than 3. We wind up at about 2.8x. So we are moving in the right direction and feel very good about that. I would say we had said sub-3. But overall, we're probably targeting something in the range of 2.75, that should get us around a BBB rating, and we feel that, that is strong at this point in time for a company like ours.

Okay. And then I know there's been a lot of talk about the Caribbean, but like the -- it's pretty normal in this industry to have big swings in supply from time to time. I think one -- I mean, not too long ago, I think we were talking about Alaska as having too much supply at one point, but it normalize pretty quickly. So can you just -- and I know you talked a little bit about this, Josh, but just on core pricing versus occupancy, like what the biggest change to me seems to be that Carnival is less willing to discount to fill. So I mean, I know you've talked about maximizing revenue. But if you could just talk like holistically, how that's changed versus history, I think, would be helpful just given I think that's a big deal here?

Sure. And I think that's a great intro. I mean, first of all, let me just say real clearly, the Caribbean is and it always will be a fantastic market for us. And we have successfully absorbed elevated supply in the Caribbean before and in Europe and Alaska many times over the last many decades, and it comes and it goes and it gets absorbed, and we move along. And I don't feel any different about the long term in light of what this particular instance is because we do that very well.

With respect to the philosophy, look, I think it is Fair to say that we are thinking and acting, I think, in a rational basis in a way that we want to maintain price integrity in the market for us. And at the same time, making sure we get folks on board that are happy and spending money not only in the ticket and -- but the onboard. And because we have evolved over the last several years and we'll continue to with bundled pricing and packages, it does change the dynamic about how we can position ourselves in the market and do things and make folks think that and understand that it's a great value. We have been -- like I said before, we've been doing this over the last couple of years, and our yields are up 17%. It's part of the arsenal to put out promotions to make people interested in what we have to offer and get our base of business and hopefully generate as much revenue as we can on as much happy guests as we can. So no specific formula to give you, but I think it's fair to say that that's the approach.

Operator, I think we've got time for one more.

Our final question will come from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

I wanted to ask about marketing because clearly, you had a lot of success with increasing your marketing spend, and I think that was called out at someday you will increase more in '26. Can you talk about where you ended with marketing as a percent of sales in '25, how do you think about that for '26? And then there's a lot of talk about the way to get to consumers kind of changing with maybe SEO and things like that being less effective. I mean how do you think about targeting consumers as the way to get to them, maybe shifting, particularly in the digital landscape?

Yes. Well, so I'll talk about the last part first. You're 100% correct. It is one of the fastest changing areas of our business when it comes to technology use of AI tools, not only by us but by the consumer and how are we marrying all of that up. And so there are lots of things that are already in place because not surprisingly, there are third-party companies that have tools already available that we're taking advantage of to make sure that we're keeping pace with the way that consumers are changing how they go about looking for not just the vacation, but frankly anything now it is. So that is -- I think that's just going to be a common theme as we move ahead over the next several years, and we've got to be -- we have to be nimble, and we have to be really thoughtful about the fact that the world is going to change dramatically, I think, over the next 5 years, and we just -- we need to make sure we're keeping pace. So that -- so we are reallocating dollars as we talk with our operators about how they need to spend differently to adjust to that. I think it's fair to say, though, there will still be top of funnel things that we are always going to want to do to get into the consideration set. And we're talking about how do we optimize once you get below that to make sure that we're being put the right way in front of the right guest or potential guests to close the booking.

As far as how we're seeing the advertising, it's not like it's spiking dramatically over -- as a percentage of revenue. We're just trying to do what we think is, is the right thing for our brands and our business. It's about 3.5%, give or take. That's -- it's a metric we look at, but it's not the metric that end the discussion about how much people should be spending on advertising because as you can probably appreciate, there's a lot behind it as we develop and change those plans real time.

Thank you very much. So for everybody, I would just say thank you. Happy holidays, and thank you again for all the support that we have had as a corporation and for all of our guests and all of our trade partners, thank you very much for everything you do for us and for the team. Well deserved -- well-deserved break next week. So thanks very much, and happy holidays.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.