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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = €312.55m | Revenue (TTM) = €603.07m
Market Cap = €312.55m | Estimated Revenue = €707.02m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = €1.21b | Revenue (TTM) = €603.07m
Enterprise Value = €1.21b | Forward Revenue = €707.02m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF) | ex SBC
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF compares a company’s enterprise value with its free cash flow. The metric therefore shows the multiple of current free cash flow at which a company is valued. EV/FCF ex SBC additionally accounts for stock-based compensation (SBC). While SBC does not represent a direct cash outflow, issuing shares as compensation can dilute existing shareholders. Therefore, SBC is deducted from free cash flow in this adjusted version.
🧮 How is it calculated?
EV/FCF ex SBC = Enterprise Value ÷ (Free Cash Flow (TTM) − SBC)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV/FCF provides a valuation based on free cash flow and therefore complements earnings-based valuation metrics such as the P/E ratio. The ex SBC version additionally accounts for the economic impact of stock-based compensation and provides a more conservative view from a shareholder perspective.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF means that enterprise value is low relative to current free cash flow. The reasons should always be considered in the context of the company and its industry.
- A high EV/FCF means that enterprise value is high relative to current free cash flow. This can, for example, reflect high growth expectations or temporarily weak cash generation.
- When SBC is positive and adjusted free cash flow remains positive, EV/FCF ex SBC is generally higher than the standard EV/FCF.
- The metric is particularly useful for companies with relatively stable and predictable cash flows.
- If free cash flow is negative or very low, EV/FCF has limited usefulness and should not be interpreted like a standard valuation multiple.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF) | ex SBC
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow shows how much cash remains after a company has covered its operating and capital expenditures. FCF ex SBC additionally deducts stock-based compensation (SBC) to adjust the cash flow for the effect of non-cash SBC.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free Cash Flow ex SBC = Operating Cash Flow − SBC − Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s actual financial strength – independent of reported accounting earnings. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction. FCF ex SBC also deducts stock-based compensation and shows how much cash generation remains after SBC.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow indicates that a company has strong financial strength – independent of reported earnings.
- It is often a solid basis for sustainable dividends and share buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be a warning sign, even if reported earnings remain stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net Margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free Cash Flow Margin | ex SBC
📈 What is it?
The Free Cash Flow Margin shows how much free cash flow a company generates relative to its revenue. In simplified terms, free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The Free Cash Flow Margin ex SBC additionally accounts for stock-based compensation (SBC). While SBC does not represent a direct cash outflow, issuing shares as compensation can dilute existing shareholders. Therefore, SBC is deducted from free cash flow in this adjusted metric.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free Cash Flow Margin ex SBC = (Free Cash Flow − SBC) ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
The Free Cash Flow Margin shows how efficiently a company converts its revenue into free cash flow. Strong free cash flow can provide financial flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or further investments. The ex SBC version additionally accounts for the economic impact of stock-based compensation and therefore provides a more conservative view of cash generation from a shareholder perspective.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high Free Cash Flow Margin shows that a company converts a high proportion of its revenue into free cash flow.
- This can provide greater financial flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, debt repayment, or investments.
- The Free Cash Flow Margin ex SBC additionally accounts for potential shareholder dilution from stock-based compensation.
- The long-term trend is particularly important. Declining margins can, for example, result from higher investments, changes in working capital, or weaker operating performance.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 SBC | in % Revenue
📈 What is it?
SBC (Stock-Based Compensation) refers to equity-based compensation granted by a company to its employees and executives. The percentage shows SBC relative to revenue.
🧮 How is it calculated?
SBC as % of Revenue = (SBC ÷ Revenue) × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Stock-based compensation is a real cost factor for shareholders. It can increase the number of shares outstanding and therefore dilute existing shareholders. The percentage of revenue shows how heavily a company relies on equity-based compensation and how significant this form of compensation is relative to the size of the business.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A lower figure is generally positive: Stock-based compensation is relatively small compared with the company's revenue.
- A high figure can indicate greater reliance on stock-based compensation and a higher potential risk of dilution. However, it is also important to consider whether the company offsets dilution through share buybacks.
- The trend over time should also be considered. A high but declining percentage presents a different picture from a persistently high or increasing percentage.
- A single-digit SBC-to-revenue ratio is not unusual among many growth-oriented and technology companies.
📘 SBC as % of FCF
📈 What is it?
SBC (Stock-Based Compensation) refers to equity-based compensation granted by a company to its employees and executives. The percentage shows SBC relative to free cash flow (FCF).
🧮 How is it calculated?
SBC as % of FCF = (SBC ÷ Free Cash Flow) × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Stock-based compensation is a real cost factor for shareholders. It can increase the number of shares outstanding and therefore dilute existing shareholders. The percentage of free cash flow shows how significant SBC is relative to the cash generated by the company. Since SBC is non-cash compensation, it is typically not deducted as a cash outflow when calculating FCF.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A lower value is generally favorable. Stock-based compensation is relatively small compared with the company's cash generation.
- A high value means that SBC represents a significant portion of the company's reported free cash flow, even though SBC itself is non-cash.
- The higher the value, the more significant SBC can be as an economic cost to shareholders, particularly when it results in share dilution.
📘 SBC Growth 1Y
📈 What is it?
SBC Growth 1Y shows how much a company's stock-based compensation has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
SBC Growth shows whether stock-based compensation is becoming more or less significant for shareholders. If SBC increases significantly, it can lead to greater shareholder dilution over time. At the same time, SBC is a non-cash expense that reduces earnings on the income statement but is added back in the cash flow statement.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high positive value is generally negative, as rising SBC can increase the burden on shareholders, particularly through potential dilution.
- What matters is whether the development of SBC is sustainable over the long term. Some level of SBC is common among many growth and technology companies.
📘 Share Count Growth 1Y
📈 What is it?
Share Count Growth 1Y shows how much the number of shares outstanding has increased or decreased over a one-year period.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The number of shares determines how many shares the company's earnings and assets are distributed across. If the share count decreases, existing shareholders' relative ownership increases. If it increases, existing shareholders are diluted. The metric therefore makes dilution and share buybacks directly visible.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A negative value is generally positive, as the number of shares outstanding is decreasing.
- A positive value indicates dilution of existing shareholders.
- A declining share count is not automatically positive: It also matters at what price the shares are repurchased and how the buybacks are financed.
📘 Shareholder Yield
📈 What is it?
Shareholder Yield measures how much capital a company returns to shareholders or uses to reduce debt relative to its market capitalization. It goes beyond dividend yield by also including share buybacks and debt reduction.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Dividend yield only tells part of the story. Companies can also return capital through share buybacks, while reducing debt can strengthen the balance sheet. Shareholder Yield combines all three components into one metric, giving investors a broader view of how a company uses its capital.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A higher Shareholder Yield generally indicates more capital being returned to shareholders or used to reduce debt.
- The mix matters: dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction can affect shareholders in different ways.
- Share buybacks are most beneficial when shares are repurchased at attractive valuations.
- Investors should also consider whether dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction are sustainable over time.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Revenue per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Dovalue Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
9 Analysts have issued a Dovalue forecast:
Analyst Opinions
9 Analysts have issued a Dovalue forecast:
Dovalue Events
Past Events
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OCT
8
Analyst/Investor Day - doValue S.p.A.
17 days ago
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AUG
6
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
3 months ago
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MAY
15
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
5 months ago
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FEB
27
2025 Earnings Call
8 months ago
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NOV
12
doValue S.p.A., Nine Months 2025 Earnings Call, Nov 12, 2025
12 months ago
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StocksGuide Free
Dovalue — Analyst/Investor Day - doValue S.p.A.
1. Management Discussion
Good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm Manuela Franchi, CEO of doValue. The last time we stood in front of you was 2.5 years ago, March 2024. And since then, the company and the world around us have changed a lot. We moved in this period in a way that probably was different from what was originally planned. But we think we have achieved most of our commitment in a different shape. We have completed the 2 transformational transactions. We have changed our platform. We enlarged our position in the market we created a scalable operating model, which is now ready for the new market conditions.
Looking at the market ahead of us, is clearly changing the way we work, the way our clients work. And we are going to use AI to transform our business model for the NPE business while continuing the trajectory. That our colleagues in coeo have already exploited in the last 4 years in terms of evolution of the model vis-a-vis new type of clients and new type of loans.
These are the conditions we are working in to be able to help us to succeed in the new era. Now let's focus on these 3 words we see in front of us and why we choose them. First, if you're a runner, you have -- you know the first 2 ready, set and then you run. Now ready, we have created in these 3 years, 4 years, the platform that allow us to prepare for the next phase. Set is about what we have today, the platform, the balance sheet and the operating model. Now we are able to scale up from here what we have built. By the end of the morning, you will see what is the market in front of us, how we want to grow in this market and also the financial conditions underpinning the plan.
Let's look to the 3 pillars of our story. We want to do a recap of what is the value today the shape and the positioning is completely different from what it was 3 years ago. And we want to come back to that plan and see what we have delivered and what we have not delivered. The next phase is phase of value's creation, scaling up from the current platform. And here, we have 3 engine of growth. The traditional NPE business which is stabilizing, the digital collection business, which is growing, and the value-added services business, which is mildly growing.
Last, the financial targets, which are underpinning the growth trajectory, but moreover, the sustainable remuneration for our shareholders.
Let's first start to introduce the team around me, which work with me every day. This team have changed because also of our acquisition, but there are key pillars for the last few years. First, Theodore Kalantonis, who is the Head of the NPE business and the real estate business across Southern Europe. Second, Elias Reitter who is the co-CEO of coeo, in the room, we have also the other co-CEO of coeo Sebastian Ludwig. I met Elias 4 years ago, 2020 to '23, and we just joined forces last year. Francesco Benintende, our Group Chief Strategy Officer; and Daviden Soffietti our Group CFO. And then you know, Daniele, is our investor relator and M&A, which will lead the Q&A session.
Let's look now what is the value today. It's a good reminder of where we start from. First, we have 2 business models and the asset-light structure. The business on the left is the one you most -- we managed EUR 132 billion of gross book value of loans, mostly generated by banks, which are, in the end, either [indiscernible] investors or securitization vehicles these are mostly secured loans, complex loans with an average size of EUR 60,000. We have contracts underpinning this business of 5 to 10 years or under runoff and the way we are remunerated is simple, a base fee on the gross book value of the assets we manage and the variable fee on the collected amount.
Right-hand side, digital collection business. This is the new business, the one we introduced with coeo. coeo works with around 60 blue-chip international clients if they give business in one country and if we work well with them, they want to work with us in other countries. They manage very small tickets, usually unsecured with an average size of EUR 120, very automated processes. Their clients are mostly corporates, but also some banks. The way we now project the business is about volumes.
Today, they manage 10 million of tickets, and this number is growing over time. They are paid only variable fee on the collected amount, and this fee is largely regulated. Why we want to stress these points? If we look to the word surrounding us, most players are debt purchasers. So they buy portfolio, they collect their success is based on the on how much they're able to collect vis-a-vis the underwriting plan. So they are more balance sheet heavy. On the right-hand side, our revenues are based on collection.
So how much we collect for our clients, no balance sheet risk on portfolios. We want to make a specification of a piece of the coeo business, which obviously impacts our financial profile. The digital collection companies usually buy after a certain period of months usually 4 months, the receivables from their clients, and they absorb them and they collect them very quickly, usually around 12 to 18 months. So it's more a working capital and little cash absorption in a little period of time.
Anyhow, we are keeping our business asset light. So we have a strategy for this type of -- for this part of the business. The limited size and shorter in period means this feature does not change the asset-light model. Let's look now to the size of our business. So EUR 132 billion of assets under management, 10 million of files today managed. We gave you just actual figures. We are in 14 countries where we were not 2, 3 years ago. We added Northern Europe, Continental Europe. We have #1 position in the NPE business in Italy, Greece and Cyprus and in the digital collection business in the DACH region. We have recorded EUR 769 million LTM revenues as of June '26 and EUR 277 million EBITDA with EUR 65 million cash flow and a stable rating since inception from 2000.
How do we look today in terms of diversification? The NPE business, and we put here together NPL and UTP before we used to focus on NPL only is half of the business today. 29% is about digital collection and 18% value-added services.
We are present for 29% of our revenues in Continental and Northern Europe where we were not present until 1 year ago. Let's now focus on the original plan and what we have delivered against it. The original plan of March '24 was adding to EUR 480 million, EUR 490 million revenue. We delivered EUR 769 million plus 59%. The EBITDA we were indicating was EUR 185 million to EUR 190 million. We closed at EUR 277 million plus 47% and did we do it in the same way we had indicated? No, in a different way. We try to be proactive vis-a-vis the market condition we saw every time and anticipating the market trends. We had planned to achieve a leverage of around 2.3x.
LTM, we were at 3.1x, 0.5x is just attached to the sale of the portfolio. That we committed to sell by year-end. So it's a technical point that decreased leverage by 0.5. But what is the main addition we gave through the acquisition. First, the non-NPL revenue were targeted to be 30%, 35% of revenue. We are today at 53%, a jump at almost doubled. Business won, EUR 27 billion until June 2026. We had planned EUR 24 billion until the end of '26. So we will be better by the time of the EUR 27 billion. That number, EUR 24 billion was predicated upon stable market share in a low deteriorating, low default ratio scenario for banks.
The market has been at low default ratios, more fragmented than we expected with more seller, but very small transaction where some clients which were not present in the market before came in, in terms of purchases, but a lot of players came out of the market. Now it's important to look to the balance sheet as well. When we came to market 2 years ago, we had a very -- a much more complex capital structure. We had 2 maturities in front of us, 2025, 2026. So an average maturity of only 1.5 years. We are now the first maturity in 2030 and the second one 2031. So more than 4 years in front of us. This is the result not only of one exercise. The team and the banks who have supported us have been able to refinance in different tranches our debt with now a very stable long-term capital structure at market conditions, which are remunerating us more than peers.
Let's look to the chart on the right. At that point in time, our spreads were around 492 basis points. Today, we are at June at 231, much below our peers. This is a signal also of the much more stable and long-term capital structure we have been able to put in place.
In terms of net leverage, we were at 2x or so below our targets at the end of '25. Clearly, this was after an acquisition, but also after a EUR 150 million rights issue. So this didn't come at a damage for shareholders in terms of remuneration. We had promised EUR 12 million of dividends for 2025 at a leverage below 2.8x. We paid EUR 17.5 million, so above because the leverage was much lower. Let's look now to the guidance for this year. Obviously, some of the 2024 assumption remain under pressure. And we wanted to be clear at the outset of this plan on how we see this year completing.
We said in August that we were seeing in front of us a strong growth of the digital collection business, and we were assuming a recovery of the collection, especially on the Italian front. What has changed since? The digital collection business is still growing very strongly. And the main client that has commented on the German market for their own plan this summer has not impacted our growth. Because it's providing us still a very sustainable growth with a very high cash generation. So nothing less than we expected even better on the coeo front.
The Italian recovery assumption are less positive in the second half. So we wanted to build the final guidance for the year based on only the contract we see today only on the collection we see today and the upper end of the guidance on a possible uplift on the collection on the Italian front. As a consequence, the target leverage is between 2.4x and 2.6x, including dividends.
Let's now move to show you what we intend to build from it. We have 5 conviction, which we built over the course of the last plan. First, diversification was the right choice. We are now a different platform, which allow us to exploit growth in certain segments while stabilizing others. The M&A has accelerated such growth, bringing diversification and strengthening our financial profile. We over delivered on the cost control. And so this is a buffer we need to take into account for the buildup of the next phase. We are ready to capture the AI opportunities, which is a fact already in our sector. It's part of the operating model of coeo since 2022.
We have already done a lot in 26', and we will continue in the next 18 months. And last, the value is positioned for ongoing structural shift in the servicing industry. Our assets under management have majority beyond 2029. 80% of our revenues are underpinned by current contracts and many contracts of our competitors are coming to market in the next 2 years. Let's see the starting point of the platform. These 3 changes support the same strategy. Scale from EUR 481 million revenues to EUR 769 million, from EUR 179 million EBITDA to EUR 277 million. Revenue mix. We were 25% value-added services, 75% NPE business. Today, 53% NPE 29% digital collection, value-added services 29 from 4 countries to 14 countries.
In terms of the levels of these products, let's move to the next page. We have done it again through the acquisition, 2 major ones, and we still stand behind them with the force. They have added a lot of value to our proposition. Garden was mostly about consolidation of our market leadership in Italy, adding 2 major contracts with banks and a new partner, Elliott. The valuation was sound at EUR 250 million with 4.3x EBIT to EBITDA. We have announced EUR 15 million synergies, and we have already achieved them. We have completed the integration, nothing to do next. We have increased our market share in Italy substantially from 16% to 24%.
And of the EUR 250 million, EUR 100 million of cash is already returned to us from this acquisition in the last one, almost 2 years. coeo is about diversification. Extending in the digital collection business in 9 new countries into a new segment of small ticket unsecured in a market with new clients, multinational blue-chip corporates, an AI-driven business model. We could have not built this business by ourselves in such a short time as we did with this acquisition. Price, EUR 350 million, plus EUR 40 million earn-out to be payable in 2 years, 5.1x multiple with a very strong growth.
They are still growing above 20%, but yes, we'll explain that better. So the growth in the diversification has been a quantum leap from 26% to 47%. We did not announce synergies for coeo but we are already realizing synergies for coeo. coeo exported their clients to our markets already since June. So we work with coeo clients in Spain in June and in Italy since the last 2 weeks and in Greece in the next 2 months. So the synergies have realized, although not announced.
Now over delivering on the cost side, we never communicate cost targets, but they are inherent in our revenue and EBITDA objective. Let's now call it to 1 year, for example. We gave a guidance of EUR 600 million to EUR 615 million revenue and the target of EBITDA of EUR 210 million to EUR 220 million. So an implied cost base of EUR 390 million to EUR 395 million. We came short on the revenue at 580.
That difference was all absorbed in cost.
In fact, we were able to close the end of the year with EUR 217 million EBITDA. So very well within guidance but acting on cost. The productivity, the revenue per FTE has increased substantially. So the cost is a reflection of lower operating leverage, and we will continue to act upon it in the next phase. We also sold businesses which were not profitable like real estate development in Spain and the Portuguese business.
Today, we don't have businesses which are not profitable. They are all in the positive trajectory. One final point. These savings are structural. We combine duplicated function, we share platform across countries. We redesigned the processes for the entire group and very little of the potential AI benefit is reflected in the numbers of today.
We are now ready to capture the unprecedented opportunity of AI. Let's follow so on 3 facts then Francesco will deepen on what we want to do in a very structured plan. First, 40% of productivity upside in the most promising use cases. In a business where cost to collect determines what you can bid for in the new contracts this is a shift of paradigm in the industry. Second, the speed. The new technology allow us to implement the new use cases in a very fast manner. The solution can be deployed in less than 6 months because they are modular and they go across different processes across the platform, we deployed in the different countries. We already have agents in production, specialty skills are replacing some activities and defined road map to scale up these activities across the group.
At the same time, human expertise remains essential. Roughly 1/3 of our activities still require human judgment, particularly for the larger exposures where complexity and compliance are critical. We want to support these activities with automation in the back. We see that as a moat. Technology replaces repetitive work while specialty judgment remains focused on where it creates the most value. And then coeo is -- with coeo, we are buying a platform, cAI which is an AI digital platform for digital collection. But we are using already some of their tools to exploit in the MP business. This is not an abstract road map. We just wanted to bring you 5 use cases, which are today in production, which we are using, which have a very strong effect. Germany.
Around 80% of tasks are automated. Cost to collect on a fund contracts was down 25% from June '25 to June '26. 5.6 million cases are rendered with no human touch of the EUR 10 million we mentioned before. In Greece, around 35% saving on the total cost of outbound call wrap-up. And more than 75% of legal invoices are automatically managed by machine and process with no human intervention. These systems are already in use, and we use them every day.
Let's now look to the new trajectory. Obviously, we give you an idea of the way we see the market going forward. Digital collection offers significant untapped growth opportunities. We have 2 markets with 2 different shapes. On the left-hand side, the NPE business. Blance sheets of banks are shrinking. And primary transactions are limited. This is a fact, but there are 3 factors supporting the business. First, the growth in nontraditional segment. Unsecured loans and UTP is continuing, and the markets such as Germany offer a shrinking balance sheet for banks, but growing NPE. Just a fact the level of NPE German banks have doubled since 2022.
Secondary sales are expected to remain very active. We see approximately EUR 60 billion between '27 and '29 , although transactions remained very fragmented. The last point is very critical, and Theodore will explain it better. New assignment offset the decline in NPE stock because they generate higher collection than the managed legacy book.
On the right-hand side, digital collection only in the country where we are present, this is a EUR 4 billion per annum opportunity until 2029 across diverse industry and segments, including buy now pay later, e-commerce utilities, insurance, corporates. Obviously, our -- one of our major clients and clients are in the buy now pay later business, a 7% to 12% CAGR market, supported by expanding e-commerce and increased adoption. We want to exploit the fragmentation of certain markets in Southern Europe. To give you an order of magnitude, the market for corporate small tickets in Italy per annum with a EUR 500 million market with low digitalization. And we want to bring and we have already brought coeo offer in this market. We are not included in the base plan untapped opportunity. One is an Italian one, which you know very well, [indiscernible] collection, not because we don't want to pursue it just because we can predict the timing and the volume with the sufficient confidence. So we didn't put it in the base case.
The argument we hear most on the NPE side is the gross book value is falling for years, therefore, the business is run off. We want to demonstrate with a couple of statistics why this is not the case. We want to be also very clear on how we see the trajectory of the asset under management in the market. Today, between what is on the bank's balance sheet and what is outside. We see Southern Europe a market of around EUR 380 billion, EUR 400 billion of AUM with an outflow in the next 3 years of around 90 to 120 and an inflow for the reason we said production of banks of 50 to 70, so much less. So the decline of 10% to 20%, but we expect revenue to fall much less in this market, 5% to 10%, while the new generation comes with more revenues, more collection attached to portfolios. We will give you specific examples later. One thing to stress, these numbers do not assume a deterioration in the credit cycle.
No recession, no rate shock, no material increase in corporate defaults beyond the current trends. Obviously, this is going to happen we will have more volumes to manage. And if we have built a very profitable and efficient platform, we will get benefit from it. But this is not in our base case.
New markets, starting with Germany. NPE stock,I mentioned is 50% up compared with a 17% decline in our core Southern European markets. The cycle that has largely run its course in South is only beginning here. But the chart on the right is more important. What we experienced in the market where we are present is a substantial outsourcing by banks. Today, banks are outsourcing 70% to 80% of the NPE business. This is not the case in other Continental European countries. Germany, for example, only 70% outsourced.They didn't have a need to outsource because they didn't have a balance sheet problem. Today, this problem is growing and we wanted to be there, but we are already there. We moved at the end of 2025 with a new platform. We have the license, we have the platform. We have the technology. We have already the team. So we are already managing NPE since then, and we want to take the opportunity of the new wave.
Another important point of our sector. This is also not in our base case. This page is about contract risk, but for us, it's mainly an opportunity. Because most of our assets under management at maturity beyond 2029, protecting more than 80% of NPE revenue in the plan. At the same time, EUR 20 billion to EUR 30 billion of gross book value of contract will be re-tendered in the next 2 years. We mentioned some of them here. These are existing servicing volume coming into play. We are not assuming the award of any of them, but we will fight for them. We will try to get a piece of it. Clearly, pricing matters. Performance is the main selection criteria.
We are moving in a new market for contracts. This is not anymore the markets where you buy a contract. You spend upfront with above-market average fees. The market will be of shorter-term contract, not paid for with better economics. So the operating leverage is critical. And that's why we are focusing on that.
Cost to collect and execution will matter more. We bring scale across 5 jurisdiction, a lower cost base and the commercial capability to win volumes on merit. We have demonstrated it with EUR 27 billion out of a target of EUR 24 billion. Let's now focus on the attractive digital collection business. We said a 4 billion Southern European market in terms of revenue pool. How much we can realistically address? On the left, these are coeo existing markets, the DACH, U.K., Nordics and Benelux. Together, they represent EUR 3 billion of servicing revenues, growing at 4% to 7% per year, with coeo established in all of them. Italy Spain, Greece, our own markets, where we are starting now. We have already clients of coeo that we can service in this market. We are able to grow our market share and we are able to take advantage of the growth of this market.
Obviously, starting from low penetration of buy now, pay later and e-commerce, this has a faster growth trajectory. And then we mentioned in other couple of markets. France and United States. The United States alone is a roughly EUR 600 billion servicing pool per annum, growing at 15%, the fastest rate on this page. Both are on coeo radar and they are not in our base case. Moving now to the next page. Buy now, pay later opportunity. Buy now, pay later is growing at 7% to 12% a year across all these countries, head of e-commerce. Penetration in DACH is 21%, while in the other countries, we are present is 5% to 3%. Do we think we get to the same level of DACH region? No. It will get to lower level, but still the opportunity to grow is quite substantial.
The markets where we have the deepest client relationship are those where buy now pay later opportunity remains relatively low, and therefore, the growth potential is the greatest. Now we will depend on how we intend to grow in this market. But our assumption is that we are focusing on the current clients and higher penetration and taking tailwinds from current trends. But the reality is that coeo is doing clients every month. All in the first half of the year, they added 11 new clients. Now let's see how we want to move to take this opportunity. We have lived across 3 phases. The first one is about -- was about integration. We started the first acquisition. We had to create the group. We established a scalable operating model develop share technology and infrastructure across the group and strengthen governance. This was the 2022-2024 era. We use the cash flow from the business to invest in the current markets and grow our market position. 2024, 2026 was mostly about diversification. Strengthening the market leadership where we were present in Italy by expanding our business beyond to digital collection.
Scale from here. This is about compounding growth, cash flow and returns on an AI first operating model. And more importantly, the platform is built. There are 2 flagship acquisitions, which are behind us. So the backbone, the acquisition, the technology is built, and we it is already reflected in our cost base, but we can do better than that. So 3 different markets, 3 different jobs.
Digital collection. This is where we plan to expand. This is the growth engine and a profitable one, where also the EBITDA performance will pick up. We see NPE business stabilizing, strengthen the long-term resilience through the high first operating model. We want to adapt to the new wave contracts will be assigned.
Last, value of the services. These are a stable contributor with additional upside, but we are assuming a very mild growth trajectory. They don't share the same underlying trends. Now at the bottom, there are important catalysts and important drivers. The gross book value of our assets under management no longer describe burning profile of our business. In 2024, most of our revenues were GBV linked. In particular, you see on this slide, non-AUM base was 27%. Today, it's 45%.
Revenue per employee will grow significantly. This is because we will enable this platform with AI generative to become more efficient. Human experts focus on value-added decisions oversight and exception handling and the rest managed automatically. This is what coeo has already done. We did in some processes, we are going to do in many more processes. Now digital collection, which is the growth engine. But I leave Elias to explain the market growth better, coeo competitive position and where the next phase will come from.
Thank you, Manuela. Good morning. My name is Elias Reitter. I'm heading together with Sebastian Ludwig, the coeo Group, the new digital collections arm of doValue. We are the youngest kid in the family of doValue. We were acquired last year, but closing -- thank you, closing just happened in April this year, so just 6 months. Now what is coeo. We are the growth platform as defined by Manuela. If you look into the revenue development, we were growing in the last couple of years with an annual rate of 15%, and we plan to do so for the upcoming years as well.
Now there are a couple of trends that give us a good tailwind. The first one is e-commerce is growing faster than physical retail, number one. The second 1 for me is the most important one, which I would like to stress a little bit. There is this buzzword called FinTech. What is FinTech? FinTech for me is the fragmentation of credits, very often being referred to as buy now, pay later. But if you see this more in a broader sense of consumer finance, in the past, people were taking a credit of EUR 20,000. And now they are perhaps taking 200 credits with EUR 100 -- why is this important? Because our mechanic, our revenue generation is per unit per receivable.
It's not a commission as a percentage of the collected money. So this really makes a difference. I hope this is something that is clear. Number three, we are working for large multinationals, and they are increasingly procuring centrally from one headquarter for many, many countries. So these are the 3 tailwinds that support our growth.
Now the profitability, you see the EBITDA margin. Now it's always been in the DNA of coeo to be highly automated. But since last year, we see really a very, very big impact from the AI pieces from the AI tools that we deployed. And I can happily announce that our U.K. team brought me an e-mail last night. They are so proud that they are now with OpenAI GPT Life gone live, which is the most modern tool you can have in AI voice agents. So we are really at the forefront of this AI adoption and debt collection. And as you see here on the lower right side, we are bringing this increasingly to the traditional doValue Southern European countries. So in a nutshell, we are the growth platform, both top line and bottom line. Drilling this down into further growth opportunities. We have defined 4 markets, the first one, buy now pay later, consumer finance and e-commerce. This is very natural because the origination from the consumer perspective was a digital 1 already. So it's quite natural to be in debt collection, digital as well. And this is where we are the strongest.
Now the largest market is on the right side, the #2 utilities, parking, insurance and telecommunication. And we have scored some very good major client wins in the last couple of months. Now tax. Tax receivables outside the U.K. in Europe, there are hardly any governmental authorities who are outsourcing receivables management. But we are trying to change this. There are 2 interesting projects in Greece and in Italy.
Number four, B2B. We are targeting large tech companies as their invoicing is digital as well. Now next slide, please. So here, I would like to start with a story about ourselves. For us, collection is a services business. Services business is a people business. So it's about the people that we employ. It's about the management as well.
Now when I started at coeo 6 years ago on my first day, I didn't get any flowers. I got a big contract immediately. And we were sitting in the full day together with a team of 7 people from all functions to go through the contract and we did it. We won this major client. And why I'm telling the story because these people are still around. And to stress one important element, the management of coeo, we are shareholders of coeo, which might tell you something about our motivation to make this -- to make a continued success in the upcoming years. Now clients, we hardly see any churn. So we have a very, very stable client panel. The revenues that we have is mostly recurring. So one-off businesses do hardly happen, they happen. And then we are sometimes deciding for an opportunistic deal. But normally, this is really winning a client, putting it on rails. And our IT system, 24/7, we are receiving cases every day and working on them every day. So it's not a one-off business that might go away from 1 day to the other. Yes, perhaps we can go to the next slide.
So here, One important element is that our clients really hate churn. They want to keep their consumer relationships. So we have defined debt collection just as an extension of a customer journey, which should be a good one from the very, very start. So we are deploying a lot of marketing thinking in debt collection. Now this is leading. If you see it to the right side, too, for a debt collection company, a quite surprising high level of customer reviews, 4.6 out of 5 and this was a quite sizable number of reviews, which tells you the story of how we are treating customers. Now the interesting element is here that in the data that we see on our side, if we get new cases every second debtor will know already. So it is almost like a circular model of customers paying in debt collection being unblocked by the originators again, and then using the services again and then one day potentially coming into that collection again and again. So an interesting mechanic of our business model.
Now more to the AI part. Today, we roughly have 2/3 of our inbound communication automated via AI. And this is not just brand new since a couple of weeks. We have started already 4 years ago. How do you start an AI element in the services business? Again, it's about people. So we were finding a great guy, and we defined a position called Chief AI Officer. This was the starting point. In AI, it's very much important to get the best engineers because it's not like in the old IT times when you had like hundreds of people who were coding. You need really the best people.
Now having this Chief AI Officer, he was the right type of person to recruit the very best AI engineers, and we have almost no attrition. So they are all still with us. Almost 30 AI engineers that we employ in 2 hubs, 1 in Berlin and 1 in Northern England. Now efficiency is one element. Second element is what you see on the lower right side, the monitored calls. This was especially coming from the U.K., where from our client side to compliance element, was more important than the efficiency element. And we developed a tool that is score-carding 100% of all customer communications. While traditionally, you would always take a randomly picked choice of, let's say, 30 calls or something and listening into them. So -- on AI, it's not only efficiency.
But today, I would say this is the most important value lever we have to increase our efficiency, and you might recall from the very first start of my slide deck here that we are targeting to increase our EBITDA margin. But there is more to AI.
It's about decision-making as well. We call it the next best action. So we're in the workflow of a debt collection case, you are actually deciding to invest money into the next step, for example, to go into a legal action or not. Now I would say we are quite far developed in the AI space and will bring this into the traditional value markets in the next -- well, we have started already in Greece with one bigger project and there will be more.
My last slide. So we have defined on the -- well, first, on the left side, 2026, we have a very, very good year, '26. Our order entry year-to-date by August is plus 20% and our revenue is plus 25%. So more than the initially communicated 15%, a very good year '26.
Now looking into the next couple of years, we have structured this by 3 growth regions and the new markets. Now in the DACH and Nordics, we are in a very, very strong position in Germany and in Austria. And we have a quite sizable business already in Sweden, 4 years after we have started there. And we have a couple of startup countries where as Manuela mentioned, we were invited by our multinational clients, which is namely Switzerland, which is Belgium, which is Norway, which is Finland, and we're going to start in Denmark in winter.
Now as Manuela mentioned, we did not promise too many synergies between the traditional doValue business and coeo business, but we are working on some. And one, for example, is we have founded in Germany, a NPE serving banks unit in the city of Essex and we are already live there since a couple of months with the management team and first large client and running fully operational.
Now Western Europe, we did some acquisitions there. So we bought a company in the Netherlands. We bought the company in the U.K. And we put our multinational existing clients on top of those acquired units. So very, very nice sales synergies that we achieved there. Now in the Netherlands, we see some headwind from regulatory elements. But nevertheless, we have one very nice clients and are have established a partner intermediary business there as well.
On the Southern Europe piece here, we have brought into Italy and Spain already our existing clients, and this is just the starting point. Now all markets are different. But we see good potential here to further grow the digital collection business.
New markets not decided yet. We are, as we speak, looking into the United States, United States is not the right country with a greenfield approach. It can only be M&A. And M&A can hardly be planned and forced. So let's see, stay tuned. And France is something we are evaluating as well.
Now as a summary, the takeaway of digital collections, coeo being the starting point of digital collections, we are the growth platform, and we do both its top line and bottom line growth. Before I hand over to Theodore for the NPE business. You will meet digitally my co-CEO, Sebastian, in the upcoming video now.
[Presentation]
Thank you, Elias. First of all, Sebastian, you were very convincing in this video. Good morning. My name is Theodore Kalantonis, and I'm the Head of the NPE and real estate business across the group. Elias, I think, was very, very explicit and in his presentation. The digital collections is the new growth engine of the group. But on the other hand, we have the NPE business. On the NPE business, the story, the objective for the next 3 years is different. It's about stabilization first and second about cash generation. And you will agree with me that growth must come together with cash generation especially in a business plan, which has to fund de-leveraging, investments and dividends, we have to pay to our shareholders. The NPE business, as Manuela said earlier, is about long-term contracts and collection curves that we can forecast with a real precision in the value jurisdictions we operate.
Collection curves are very important because they help us, and they are very good on that. We have a lot of historical curves around the countries we're in. And they are very good because they are the basis for offering a very say, high-level, high-quality underwriting service to our clients, existing and new ones. In other words, it's a tool of attracting and gaining new clients. The NPE stock is still sizable, but declining. What I would ask you to look at instead though is to see the 3 areas, which are moving to the different direction. First, it's about the UTP and Stage 2. These are new segments which are growing. Second, we see new segments and new countries becoming more material compared with the past. And third, the secondary sales market is stabilizing, and this is very important because it keeps a portfolio rotation and servicing mandates in place. So I will repeat. The key word here is about stabilization, and I want to be very precise about what that means.
So look at the slide on the left, you will see that the so-called inertial path is down. This is the second gray bar from the left. What closes most of the gap is the third bar and this is the one we can control. In fact, there are 2 levers, which we control to a different degree. The first is commercial and here, to be honest, there are limits. We can manage the pipeline better. We can compete harder for new volumes coming to market which to an extent our NPE business to other countries, first of all, the core countries, but we do not control at the end of the day, how much volume the market provides. The second lever, though, is the one we fully controlled, and it is the larger of the two.
Costs, as you can see on the bottom left of around EUR 250 million. Today, they are moving down to roughly EUR 210 million over the time -- over the time frame of this plan. And this, despite the wage inflation. Part of the cost savings, as Manuela said, will be driven by agentic AI, which let us do something that in this industry that nobody has achieved before. It will make the cost to collect call variable. As you know, in the past, when volumes fell short. Costs remained largely fixed.
Increasingly, this is changing. Last but not least, in this if additional action is required, for example, if volumes coming below what we estimate, we know what to do. This management team has successfully restructured operations before in markets where this was difficult to do. We did it in Spain 2 years ago. We did it in Italy through the Gardant acquisition and integration. We will do it again, if necessary.
But how are we going to get there? In fact, as you can see in this slide, we have 3 levers to pull. The first lever is about strengthening our new business capture and one of our main focus in this new 3-year period is to extend our coverage to the midsized institutions. Second lever, I said already, is to expand in the UTP and early arrears. And the third lever is the structural one, an AI first operating model. But I will let Francesco to go through that later.
Let's now have -- next slide, please. Let's now have a quick look in the countries in the so-called doValue countries. In total -- in all countries, talking always about the NPE business, the NPE business generates around EUR 435 million of revenue. And this, as you can see on the top left, it is declining modestly from now to '29. But beneath that headline, the 4 markets are quite different. Italy, on the top right, generates around EUR 220 million of revenue. Following the acquisition of Gardant now we have 24%, 1/4 of the market and the plan assumes that we'll hold our position despite the decline of the overall revenue pool. So the decline is about the primary supply and not so about losing share to our competitors.
The Hellenic region generates around EUR 180 million. And here, we have the same logic but a stronger position. In Greece, we have 34% market share and in Cyprus, close to 50%. These markets, as you know, went through a very, very tough period 10 years ago. But today, they are, let's say, in a normalizing phase. Again, there, the objective is to hold our share as a market slightly contract. Spain, on the other hand, bottom left, is a different case. First of all, in Spain, we are not #1. We used to be. We are #6, #5, #6. We generate around EUR 35 million of revenue, and we have a 7% market share. So we have a low position in a market where we already have a license, a very strong team and the platform in place. So here we are not defending. Our objective here is clearly to grow. There is room to take share, and this is what we assume in this new business plan.
Germany, on the other hand, it's the really new opportunity. We have just entered the market, as Elias said earlier, so our share is not yet meaningful. The plan assumes EUR 15 million of revenue, a low number deliberately. But Germany is the one core market in Europe where the LPs are rising, where the outsourcing has barely started. And coeo gives us a very strong base operational base and client relationships to build upon it.
Two final points before I move to the next slide. First, on those numbers, there is no cycle. Every bar assumes that the NPE formation stays at the current levels, through -- from now to 2029. So practically, this is effectively our worst-case scenario. And second, this page shows on the core NPE servicing revenue and not revenue coming from businesses which are built around it, the so-called value-added services. Manuela will cover that later, including data and other, let's say, services or the nonfinancial receivables that we will reach through our new digital platform. So let me now come to another very important topic.
Manuela touched upon it, but I think we need to explain it better. Over the plan, the gross book value declines our own gross book GBV, our own AUM base is forecasted to decline by around 5% a year. On the other hand, we forecast that the NPE revenue will decline by only 2% a year. So how this gap can be explained? The answer is here on this slide. Look at the collection rates. Our older legacy portfolio collects 1% of the gross book value in a year. These are cases which are worked for over a decade, the straightforward recoveries happened long ago and what remains is complex and residual cases. The new NPL flows collect 13%. Early in the recovery cycle, simpler cases, far better data behind them. And coming to the new UTP flows, they collect around 20%. Borrowers are still operating, still contactable with a business to preserve. So let's now do the math together. First, take EUR 1 billion of legacy book.
At 1%, it produces EUR 10 million of collections in a year. Now take EUR 1 billion of new NPL flows at 13%, it produces EUR 130 million, same gross book value but 13x more collections. Turn that around, and you get a number that really matters to replace the collections generated by EUR 1 of legacy book. We do not need to onboard a new EUR 1 billion loans. We need to onboard only EUR 77 million of new loans. So when you see our gross book value falling do not multiply that with the same percentage to see the effect on the revenue.
The euros living the book are the one's earning 1%, while the euros arriving are earning 15% or 20%. Conclusion, the NPE book can shrink considerably, but the earnings, it produces, move slightly. And this is what is behind the minus 5% and the minus 2%, I told you earlier. Now, 2 more slides and I am done. I have just shown you why a new euro of new flow outperforms a Euro of legacy book. So the obvious next question is, how reliable is at new flow? I believe it is. And there are 3 structural reasons for that. First, as you know, the NPE formation is already at the floor. In Southern Europe, in particular, NPE ratios have been down from 12% 10 years ago to 2.3% currently. But it does not -- the new formation, it does not go to 0. This is very important. We may have 2% new NPE flows -- sorry, NPE ratio, but there is a new formation produced every year. And even in the current credit environment, we operate, and we've seen now for more than, let's say, many, many years. And this is not an assumption. This is something which is happening today.
Second, we strongly believe that outsourcing is structural. Once banks dismantle their in-house collection teams, systems and legal networks, they do not repeat them. We may have 2% new NPE flows -- sorry, NPE. ratio but there is a new formation produced every year. And even in the calmest credit environment we operate, and we've seen now for more than, let's say, many, many years. And this is not an assumption. This is something which is happening today. Second, we strongly believe that outsourcing is structural. Once banks dismantle their in-house collection teams, systems, and legal networks, they do not rebuild them.
We saw that happening in Southern Europe during the last decade, and there is still room for more outsourcing in other countries. We mentioned earlier in Germany, currently, banks outsource around 30%. So we believe that this can only go up.
Last slide -- sorry, one more point, sorry, go back one more point. There's another factor. The addressable market is getting broader. For over a decade, when we were talking about servicing, we just had in mind just one segment, secured NPLs. But this is changing. Servicing is increasingly extending to cover the unsecured exposures and beyond that to utilities and taxes. Each new wave is not replacing the previous one. It is coming on top of it. And meanwhile, the unit fees are stable. Practically, the pricing pressure coming from the bank and it's coming is offset by the market consolidation that we see in all markets. So formation in conclusion, formation sits at a cyclical floor. Outsourcing penetration and breadth are rising and the fees hold. None of these drivers is moving against us.
Last slide and the last recent question, I would say, is whether we can continue to win that new flow. I believe, yes. And this chart explains why. Look at the 2 bars in each market. The light bar shows our share of the existing stock, while the dark bar shows our share of the new business that came to market during '24 and '25. So you can see here that in Italy, we have 24% market share, but we won 25% of the new business coming in the market. In the Hellenic region, we have 34%, and we gained 60% of the new business coming to the market. And in Spain, we gained double the share we have there. So the pattern is the same in all countries. Our share of new business is higher than the share of our existing stock. In other words, we are capturing more than our current market position suggests. Having said that, thank you very much and Francesco.
Thank you, Theodore, and good morning, everyone. I am Francesco Benintende and oversees strategy and operational efficiency for the group. My goal today is to pass you 2 messages. I want you to go home reminding the magnitude and the robustness of what we call operating model transformation. This is our program aimed to deliver the efficiencies, which are needed to support our trajectory to stabilization in the NPE business. For this, let me start with the magnitude. Please work with me for the chart that you see, start left to right.
This chart repeats the cost base of the NPE business and how we foresee its evolution along the next 3 years. We start with the 2025 cost base, which is between EUR 240 million and EUR 250 million. And then we have 3 effects. Inflation and other increases. This includes also contractual wages increases. Here, let me stress one point. This factor will happen irrespective of the economic condition. It is just a constraint that we need to manage.
Second, costs to sustained growth. in our trajectory, we will need some specialized capabilities and tooling to expand into new segments, like UTP or new asset classes. This is what this cost is meant to cover. And then you have the largest block the operating model identification. Here, you see that there are estimated savings in the tune of EUR 65 million to EUR 70 million which will come from the deployment of a new operating model, primarily AI-based. Now this is a very challenging target. And this should be among the most ambitious you can find in the industry in terms of scope and in terms of magnitude. But for us, it's not just an ambition. This is our commitment.
You will see that in the next couple of slides, we have a clear agenda of things to do to make this number happen. But before I turn to that, I want you to focus on 3 additional elements of flexibility which are beyond this representation.
Point #1, the cost to sustain growth. I want you to note that these amounts will occur as growth will occur. So they are not fixed, not upfront. Second element of flexibility. 2029 baseline embeds a portion of performance-linked cost. This means cost that will be paid only if results justify them. Third, as you can appreciate from the graphics, the share of non-HR cost in 2029 will be higher. Part of this non-HR cost relate to technology and AI capability consumption, thus variable cost. This will give us the flexibility to adjust the cost base. Upward if we will experience a positive tailwind, but also downward in case of need.
So in summary, should revenue not develop the way we are expecting in this presentation, we have additional actions to take on our side on top of the figures you see here to adjust part of the cost base. This was about the magnitude. Now let me try to give you a sense of the robustness. So let's move to Slide #40 and #41, where I want to show you 2 things. The what we would like to transform, which is a bit solutions we want -- and the solutions we want to deploy. So let's start with Page #40. This is our NPE platform of the future. This is a vision of how we expect the model to change if we deploy what we have in mind. And this is depicted of course, in a simplified manner with the perspective of the asset managers, which are the largest portion of our colleagues. We aim for a target state where asset managers and AI agents cooperate. And please bear with me on the magnitude of this change. We are talking about a model where all tasks are handled with a hybrid approach, which means via cooperation between asset managers and AI agents.
Now the implication of it is that all the standardized, low value-added task will be handled by agents. For your benefit, we have depicted here a condensed, this vision across 5 major category of activities. You can see from building the case up to monitoring and control. You can appreciate, for example, agent handling calls or managing information flows up to building reports leaving our colleagues the possibility to focus on the high value-added more sensitive task: Negotiation, restructuring, relationship management. Now I want you -- I hope that this gives you a sense of what we mean by AI platform -- by NPE platform of the future.
And of course, you may ask, okay, but what does it mean in numbers? Now with this model, we expect productivity gains starting at 30% picking up to 70% or 80% depending on the specific task and on the level of standardization of the single activities. Now let me stress one very important point. This does not mean that it's covering everything. Sensitive tasks and accountability stay human. This is where our colleagues make the difference and improve collections and we are not here to remove that rather to actually reinforce it. We do not want to remove judgment from this business.
So in a nutshell, I hope you can see that AI for us is not just an investment theme. It is an implementation program. As a matter of fact, we have already studied our processes and the possibilities of where to deploy AI solutions. And we are continuously looking at the market because this program needs to dynamically adjust every time a new solution comes in. I want now to show you on top of this is what we want to transform. Now I want to show you how we want to transform and what are the solutions we have in mind. On Page #15, you see the AI capabilities we want to deploy 41, sorry. And please, you can see that following the overall credit collection life cycle from step #1, the case in taken onboarding to step #7, document in compliance, in every single step, you have some AI capability. Then you have a cross-functional layer. I will talk about it in a second, which is underneath it.
Now 4 highlights here. First, I hope you can appreciate that our implementation program is also a very concrete road map behind it. We did our own work, we did our analysis. The number you saw on Page 39 is ground based on this. It's not just a top-down assumption. Second highlight, we have very clear -- we have very clear what are the critical points of this program. Please allow me to focus one second on the cross-functional support module, bottom left. This is the unglamorous part. This is orchestrators workflow automation interfaces with core system. Yet despite being unglamorous, this is the part. That decides whether all the other work well and how well they work.
We can have a very powerful and well configured agents. If they are not interfaced properly with the ecosystem, the benefits will be limited. And I want you to remember that we have it very clear. Our program is designed to ensure this integration is maximized. To overcome the, let's say, most typical hurdles and issues that similar program face. This is the single part where majority of the program fails to be honest. Highlight number three, discipline.
We have already enhanced EUR 20 million of investment secured for this program. We are very strict in adopting focus. This means we prefer to have fewer use cases rather than an undiscriminated deployment of AI capabilities across the organization. Number three, we are monitoring very, very tightly the cost consumption. As you know, agents have a variable cost component, which may silently expand if it is not probably monitored. And fourth highlight risk. Given the magnitude and importance of this program, we have been very careful in setting all the necessary risk guard rails and operational measures that such a program requires.
Now after all this discussion, one might still say, yes, but look, the NPE in reality is the analog part of your company. And as the analog part, it is not so credible to transform and identify to such an extent. Well, let me say we don't believe that. I mean we don't believe it based on the analysis we have done it. We don't believe it based on the experience of our team.
Beyond very complex and highly structured cases, there are a set of activities, which are repeatable, which are standardizable, of course, they are not the entire set but they are. And these activities are very similar to the one that our friends in Germany have already successfully digitized. So we are very confident that we can do the same for our NPE business.
Now to conclude, the message I would like you to retain is the following: we commit to deliver a transformation program, AI based, which is among the most ambitious in the industry for magnitude and for robustness. The magnitude is the 40% improvement in the capacity or if you want, the EUR 65 million to EUR 70 million I showed you before. The robustness come from the fact that AI is not just a title. It is a tangible road map, and it is already underway. Let me now pass the microphone to our group CEO, to conclude on this second session and transition you to the third one with our financial results. Thank you very much.
Thank you, all. Let me close the NPE section to move to something quite different. Everything I've described so far is about servicing but 10 years of doing that work has produced additional business. Those business can be sold separately. We call them value-added services, how much they keep today. There are EUR 140 million VAS revenues in 2025, representing 19% of group revenue. We put them across the line from low to high, what is low I -- it's how much they are linked to the captive business to the servicing business and how much they are not. The role on the left side shows business that are stand-alone.
Alternative asset management over EUR 1 billion of assets under management on a dedicated platform run for third-party investors.
Stage 2 products are sold to banks on their performing book to identify borrowers likely to default before they do. We are not managing these books. We are just doing a diagnosis for the banks. Mortgage broking on new lending. We started this business in '25. We already have 2,000 applications per year in Greece in '26. Advisory and portfolio transaction for clients and third-party third parties. We are doing that for the portfolios we sell every year, but also for banks who require that work. On the right, businesses, which are closer to our core business. They produce high quality revenue. Repeatable, asset-light sold to clients, we already have using capability we have already developed and paid for. And they go across real estate services, legal services and master servicing. What drives those is not the size of the book. It's the number of positions which are underlying the book. And now many services, we sell against each position. So we sell per ticket, we sell per position.
Moreover, a growing share of this revenue is outside our own servicing portfolio to non-captive clients, especially data advisory and real estate services. So we have 4 business -- 8 businesses. The temptation is to grow all of them, but we want. We are focusing on 4.
Chosen on 3 simple test: scale, strategic fit and the ability to compound. The rest we run on a steady state because they are profitable. What are these 4 businesses? Growth on asset management. We will go AUM with new products, including a dedicated NPE fund, which we have incorporated in Luxembourg in last summer and build an infrastructure we already own. Our platform, our origination and coeo relationship. It scales without boosting cost. We already nearly doubled the size of the asset management business since we acquired Gardant. It was EUR 700 million assets under management. We are now at EUR 1.3 billion.
Second, accelerate data services, our clear asset with untapped revenue potential with decades of proprietary data. And the collateral across 5 jurisdictions in a growing market. New products for our own portfolio and the part declines will change that. Legal Services. The legal recovery business is large and fragmented in Spain, especially and in a fragmented market, a consolidator are real premium. So we will build scale, integration and leverage including through careful JVs with third-party customers and platforms. And fourth is master servicing, limited penetration grew but very high penetration in this market because in Italy, for the scale of the securitization market, this has grown at a significant pace in the last years.
We put it on the right of the previous graph. But the reality is that already today, we are managing 30% of securitization non-captive for third-party clients. And there is a proposition to grow it in the countries where we are present with the NPE business.
So the targets are deliberately prudent entering new markets and client platform takes time, and we have assumed a measured pace, but we are already doing this business with a sizable dimension. Now this slide is about how we intend to run the company rather than what we intend to deliver. And here, we have 3 pillars. Obviously, people new role bringing in skills, we don't have today, re-skilling of people and a culture of what doValue and coeo bring together. The combination of the doValue and coeo, it's bringing 2 different cultures together and accelerate our transitioning culture. The operating model we described it's where our people will spend time on. That requires investment in team and not just in technology. It's a change management investment.
Technology. We are building our AI capabilities, and that's where we spent time in 2026. We developed a system that coordinate AI once and share them across the group. We simplify all their system alongside the eye program, and we also develop a way to earn revenues from the data group strategy. Also the layer of data strategy to collect data in all the countries, as already said. The project was launched last year and will be completed in 2 months.
We managed the AI program of the group with dedicated resources, each initiative as an accountable leader. We focus on two priorities with large impact, and we monitor them and the operating metrics they bring in. That last point is the commitment I would hold us to. We are not waiting to deliver to you in 2029. There will be milestone along the way. And we will report to you along this milestone. So you will be able to assess our progress against them. Three things that we are actually doing. So we are bringing capability in-house. We show it on the next page. AI engineers are already on our payroll to see orchestration and integration and external development up has been created and will increase over time. A new sourcing model has been established and will be developed in Italy.
Second is about simplification. We are separating business process from all their IT system improve infrastructure and automation services. The aim is to reduce the running cost of technology. Third is foundation connected system, a group data strategy and AI governance that complies with the AI. This allows us to expand the program successfully. Now on the last session, which is probably the one where investors and analysts are most focused on. So we have now seen the old machine, the growth engine, the cash engine, the services around them, what we are doing on the cost base. What remains is the financials. And now we will go in details. But I wanted to give you the key figures and targets for 2029.
EBITDA excluding nonrecurring items of EUR 330 million, representing mid-single-digit growth from 2025 pro forma baseline and implying a margin of up to 40%. Normalized free cash flow of EUR 100 million to EUR 120 million, a sustainable annual run rate once the investment and one-off costs required to deliver the transformation are substantially behind us. Along these targets, we have established a clear financial framework, 2x to 2.5x net leverage is, we think, an adequate level, which allows us for shareholder distribution and capital deployment. Over the plan, we expect to originate EUR 150 million of cumulative cash available for shareholder distribution and bolt-on M&A. After funding the investment required to achieve the 2026 earnings and cash generation profile.
These figures are built bottom up and they are built upon the 3 businesses, which will have this trajectory. Digital collection growth is based primarily on clients we already serve and markets we already operate in. The NPE assumption incorporates the current trend in the legacy book and not a recovery in the credit cycle. The efficiency program will underpin the cost trajectory and the operating leverage with a new operating model.
So the base plan is cloud opportunity with timing or contribution cannot yet be assessed but could -- with the sufficient confidence but could deliver upsides. We mentioned tax collection, but also the long-term agreements, which will come in the market from competitors in the next few months. Now Davide will take you through the financial bridge and the assumptions behind it.
Hello. Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Manuela. I'm Davide Soffietti, Group CFO of the group. I'll try to transform what we have here in the last 90 minutes in numbers, P&L, cash flow and shareholder returns. Let's focus on this page for us key. Let's see how we move from the 2025 EBITDA pro forma EUR 272 million, up to EUR 330 million, EUR 350 million that Manuela just mentioned our target for 2029. So you can see the first bar on the left. The largest contributor is digital collection growth. Here, you can see this is how we build this growth. One part is already secured. We already delivered in 2026. The last -- the visible part is based on clients you already work with. Contract already signed expansion with clients. We really work and in the region, we already operate. So this is key. We are not basing this growth on new potential clients new regional is what we already manage.
Let's move on the second bar. This is the negative decline of NPE, but please -- this is only how our legacy contracted portfolio will decline over the time period. This is as a strong example that is not the reality that we are not onboarding any new business. This is realistic. But just show you how the legacy portfolio will decline. And then we have also the cost part, which Francesco already mentioned, Unfortunately, the cost will increase naturally because of 2 elements that are not our under control.
Inflation on non-HR cost, IT spend, and increase on HR costs because of collective agreement. So what we need to work is we need to reduce our cost base, but also compensate this increase effect. This is why the efficiency part is key. Francesco already explained how we are going to act to reduce this cost. But it's a huge amount, EUR 75 million to EUR 80 million. Also here, we have a part that has already delivered in 2026. The rest is based on a real plan already faced through the plan, that Francesco mentioned, we have a lot of details we need to deliver on this.
So how we tackle this decline, we are showing the second -- the third bar also with new business. So the NPE trajectory is not only the declining of legacy portfolio we will win new business. Also here, we have EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million EBITDA that has already been secured in 2026.
The rest is based on a very conservative assumption of new business intake, around EUR 4 billion per year. So EUR 12 billion of new business coming from the market per year. This is, again, we are repeating the same principal, but it's key. It's based on the fact that the macroeconomic will not change. We will continue to have a very low level of new volumes from the market, and we will keep our market share. So now because the digital collection is the most important part, as you can see on the next slide how the product will contribute to our diversification profile.
Now 2025, you can see that revenue side, the NPE is the most important contributor, even more on EBITDA level. Look in 2029, we are moving -- increasing the contribution of digital collection. If you compare revenues, we are growing, but you see the EBITDA contribution of the digital collection is much higher. Why? Because the volumes and the revenue growth significantly, but the base cost grows with a lower level because we have an operative leverage scale and the cost base is moving very low. So we can have increase on our EBITDA margin from low 30% up to 46% in the digital collection. And there you can see also the contribution of the value-added services that remain stable.
As Manuela mentioned before, it is important to have a line that is growing and other line at that is reducing, but will continue to contribute with the action on the cost side, and we have value other service that is stable over the time.
If you look at the same diversification by or region side, you can see that today, 2025 numbers, Greece has been the main contributor to our revenues, mainly EBITDA. Most 45%, you can see on top right of the slide. With the growing digital collection, we are also growing in the region where coeo is present. So you see by the end of 2029, central and northern Europe, the region coeo operate is going to 47%. This is changing our diversification profile. We are not anymore depending on a single region Greek Alain region is very important. Now we are more balanced, and we are more exposed to a business that is growing. Now the other important strategic initiative is the efficiency in the NPE and how we finance also the growing digital collection. So we have here on the left side, how we deliver our efficiency program. As you can see here, we need to offset, again, the natural increase of the cost. We need to reduce our cost base.
So you see we have EUR 30 million between EUR 25 million and EUR 29 million of reduction in costs. But in the reality, the action we are taking is double. You can see EUR 65 million, EUR 70 million because we need also to protect against the inflation and the pressure on the salaries. Again, I don't want to repeat Francesco explain how we are planning to reduce this base costs.
On the right side, you see the investment we need to have to sustain the growth in digital collection. It's roughly same amount plus EUR 25 million. And this is how we need to finance the growth in digital collection. But again, here, the cost will increase, but the revenues and the volumes will be faster and it would be higher growth versus the cost base because only a meaningful portion of the cost base is linked to the volumes. Thanks to automation, operating leverage, a machine, we can grow, increasing our EBITDA margin. So on digital, we will go to 30% to 47%. And overall, these 2 elements, efficiency on NPE, growing on digital collection will bring us to have a 40% EBITDA margin at the end of 2029.
Now before moving to our cash flow production I want to try to explain better coeo's future model that so far some time has been misunderstood. coeo services receivables for its client for the first 4 months. These are the real pure servicing model. After 4 months, the claims that remain unpaid are purchased by coeo at agreed pricing mechanism with the same clients. This is why we call hybrid model. It's not a pure asset-light model as the value used to operate but is fundamentally different from the purchaser model we know on the market.
Why? First, coeo is not participating on any auction to buy this portfolio. It's part of the contract designed with the clients. coeo doesn't need to have access to debt to finance this acquisition, but it's financing directly with the fee they collect in the first period. So the fees we get to speed give us the funding to buy this portfolio. In this case, we secure the future fees because when we buy then we can continue to manage that book and gain fees and recover the principal we invested. And the most important here that is that coeo already managed portfolio before buying. In this case, we are completely reducing to low level the risk of the underwriting. What is the main risk of debt purchase? They need to buy a portfolio, they don't know. The portfolio comes from an external vendor and a need to assess the value. coeo can do this in the first 4 months of the management.
They know exactly the loans are they're performing. They know all the data, the information of the borrowers. So they have a past mechanism that takes into account exactly the performance this is per month. So at the end, the price we paid is related on the quality of the portfolio. So this is it different from the classical debt purchaser.
And then let me stress, the claims coeo are very small claims, repeatable with high rapid collection profile. This means that in few months, we recovered fully the price we have paid. This means if coeo grows means that all this purchasing or portfolio will grow consequently. If you see the slide, on the top right, today, coeo has a back book portfolio repurchased that has EUR 165 million of expected recovery collections. As you know, we already announced that we want to sell this portfolio to third-party investors, mainly because we want to accelerate our delivering path. But if we move the sale of the portfolio, the beginning '27, we just have the same [indiscernible] impact at the beginning of '27. But in the meantime, we will continue to collect cash from these portfolios, even more cash than the one we will get if we sell today.
On a scenario, we'll keep this portfolio on our balance sheet until the portfolio maturity will collect a much higher cash, probably EUR 165 million, but in a more longer period and we need to keep our capital committed to that portfolio. This is why we want to sell and accelerate the de-leverage impact.
And on the bottom part of the slide, you can see minus EUR 140 million. This is another important metrics. In our plan, we have a cash out of EUR 140 million cumulative in the 3 years plan. This is -- we need this to have coeo to trust, those prefer investor. We after to the investor, we need to recognize the investor at IRR. With this transfer, we secure the funding for the future acquisition for the future portfolio that will help us to grow. And in this way, we can grant, we can target our growth in fees and revenues. The most important, we continue to de-leverage, and we keep our future to be an asset-light company. So hopefully, this is clear.
Let's now move to next slide where starting for 2029 target, I tried to guide you how a EUR 330 million, EUR 350 million EBITDA transforming the EUR 100 million, EUR 120 million of free cash flow. CapEx ordinary is about EUR 30 million. Working capital will be neutral. We have minus EUR 10 million of other asset liability absorption. Here, you have again the EUR 50 million cash out because of the portfolio transfer to the investor of coeo. Again, this is -- we need this to sustain our growth and to continue to fund new acquisition in coeo.
Then you have the IFRS 16 are leasing. So the what we pay in the office we operate, the infrastructure, this is roughly EUR 20 million. And then taxes around EUR 50 million. Financial charge in 2019 would be around EUR 55 million. And there we are minorities when we pay dividends is up to EUR 20 million. This is how we go to EUR 120 million of free cash flow. And this is for us our annual rate we expect to generate on a running basis once all the investments on the one-off costs required to file the transformation and our growth will be behind us. So let's see on the right side of the slide, the cumulative cash flow production of the 3 area plan. You can see the first bar is EUR 290 million, EUR 210 million of ordinary free cash flow. So we are able to generate this huge amount of cash. But during the plan, we need to invest EUR 140 million to build the earnings and cash generation profile we're targeting for 2029.
What we have in this EUR 140 million, EUR 75 million are restructuring costs, mainly in 2028. Then we have additional CapEx, EUR 50 million that we invest to reach our target of growth and the reduction of the cost. And then we have the deferral payments to our -- the seller the company we bought [indiscernible] component. It's mostly EUR 40 million on coeo that will be paid in '28 because coeo is performing high of our expectation and also of the seller expectation.
And then it's not to Greece. After the plan, we just have the last installments to be paid in Greece, that is million that will be paid in 2030. After this, we don't have any more. Any earnout deferral consideration to be paid in the future.
So after funding this investment, the federal payments, we have EUR 150 million to EUR 170 million of free cash flow available to remunerate shareholders to further -- to reduce the gross debt, and to have bolt-on M&A or a combination of these 3. So this cash, if you can see the next slide, will help us to de-leverage. Again, [indiscernible] our guidance for '26 is to close in a range between 2.4x, 2.6x leverage. Thanks to the increase of EBITDA and the cash generation, we will go down to 1.6x before any dividend remuneration, buy back or dividends. Better is to say that our sustainable range of leverage is between 2x to 2.5x. This means that the difference between the EUR 1.6 billion and the higher end of the range, 2.5 create and capacity we can allocate. So between 150, if we should stop 2x to 2.5x [indiscernible] if you go to 2.5x So we have the capacity we can allocate to the investor debt and M&A.
But in the meantime, you can see in the left down part of the slide, we are going to repay back the term loan with a bank of EUR 90 million, EUR 30 million per year. So in the meantime, we are able to de-leverage up to 1.6%.
We are reducing the gross debt and the financial charge. And we are ready also to have a very strong cash position up to EUR 320 million before any dividend payment or buyback. So this means that we are also ready to finance our next debt maturity that will be only in 2030. So this is the difference between a leverage target range. So the [indiscernible] will give us this capacity how you want to allocate this capacity? Again, our shareholder distribution. The dividend policy will be to pay to our shareholders through dividends or share buy back up to 80% of our net ordinary income. Then we can use the cash for bolt-on M&A. These are important for us.
How we want to develop this bolt-on M&A? Mainly of 4 type of M&A. First is client-led geographical expansion, specifically to support our digital growth. Second, acquiring license, team's capability to reinforce our core system and accelerate the entry new markets. Third is technology, to enhance platform and finally selected opportunities in adjacent market of credit business management. So on M&A, our approach is simple. An acquisition must accelerate the strategy that is already in place. We don't want to have M&A in new business, in new regions where we are not present. We don't have a clear strategy to grow. And any transaction, any M&A transaction must meet 3 conditions, limited execution and integration risk. Disciplined valuation with accretive return and funding within our sustainable leverage range between 2x and 2.5x. The plan representing assumes only a limited contribution of bolt-on M&A. Transformation acquisitions are not included in this plan and are not required to deliver our targets.
If a large opportunity arises, we'll assess it separately on its strategic and financial merit. So with that, I hand over to Manuela to conclude the presentation. Thank you.
Yes. We have 3 earning engines. Support different financial outcomes. The digital collection provide profitable growth. We indicated the EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million EBITDA by 2029, with revenue increasing at 15% and operating leverage supporting the margin expansion. The NPE servicing business, supported by an operating model transformation and cost discipline to protect earnings despite the decline in the legacy stock. And the value-added services contributing for EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million with stable and recurring up mid-single-digit profitability. This will end up in EBITDA of EUR 330 million, EUR 350 million of recurring EBITDA with expansion of margin up to 40%, supported by the cost efficiency program we have highlighted.
The cash conversion is EUR 120 million, well under the normalized free cash flow, a sustainable annual rate after CapEx, working capital, taxes and cash interest within a leverage target of times, we can deliver up to 80% distribution, including dividends and share buyback. So this is how the platform we have built translate into earnings. Our earnings translate into cash flows and now cash translate into value for shareholders. We are ready, we are set, and we are now the scale to grow further. Before we open the floor, one final announcement. We believe in this plan, and we are betting it with capital. A EUR 10 million share buyback program, which has just been approved
And will start in the coming days. Why we did that for 3 reasons. One, the valuation gap. We think the stock is undervalued. Second is the cash flow that presented today, which are not reflected in the current share price.
The other point is conviction around the plan. At this level, buying back shares is the best use of our incremental cash. And last is accelerated return to shareholders. The buyback forward is part of the distribution we plan to make over the plan and is fully consistent with our financial discipline. It's all an impact of 0.1x over leverage within our targets of 2x to 2.5x with covenant headroom and liquidity managed at holding level within -- with the room available. So our distribution policy is unchanged up to the 80%. The buyback does not preempt further dividend in 2027. That further distribution will be calibrated based on leverage and liquidity following the disposal of the portfolio. Now we are ready for your questions. I will hand over to Daniele to manage all questions that are not coming from the room.
Thank you for -- to all of the speakers. That has been a very detailed presentation. And I think we have a lot to digest and a lot of figures to put in your spreadsheet. So we are ready to take your questions. Of course, Investor Relations is available offline, but I encourage you to interact directly with the key people responsible for the execution of this plan. People connecting from the webcast are very welcome to submit the questions through the platform.
2. Question Answer
Tommaso Nieddu from Kepler Cheuvreux. The first one is on the phasing, how should we think about the phasing of the EBITDA growth over 2027, 2029, also because you are targeting an increase in coeo EBITDA margin from 28% to 47% in 2020 which is a very significant improvement, very ambitious. But just I'm trying to understand how should we track it. The second question is a clarification on the growth of coeo. Digital collection, EBITDA CAGR. But from what I understood, you assume this growth to come mostly from existing clients and geographies while there are very conservative assumptions from new client wins and expansion into other regions. So just trying to clarify that.
And then -- so you have presented the business model of coeo. It's very clear. However, if I'm not mistaken, I think the first presentation of coeo at the time of the acquisition, we talked about the revenue structure in Southern Europe as it should be different as the collection fee should be borne by the client and not by the debt. So just trying to understand also if you address that and if there is any evolution on that side. And then the very last one is more curiosity since in one of your slides, you show France as one of the countries where we should expect NPEs to go up, but you are not operating there. So my question is, are you looking to expand there? And can you do it without acquisitions? And that's it.
I move some others so on the phasing of the EBITDA growth, because of the action we are going to take on the NPE business from now to the end of we expect a decline on the NPE rebalance by growth of coeo. Coeo today is delivering a growth which is above our target -- original targets. So we had mentioned EUR 60 million for this year. You will see already the 9 months will be above that number and the likes. So we see a stable 2027 versus '26 for these reasons and then a steady growth from there up to the target of 2029.
Now on coeo contribution, on the business side and now coeo growth will come from Elias will answer. But going back to your point around the other countries, we are assuming to penetrate and was part of the original plan, the NFC, the nonfinancial claim business in Southern Europe. And this is part of the trajectory we envision for the digital collection.
There, we are already present with active clients through the TEAM 4 platforms in Spain before coeo. We are managing now coeo clients in Spain, and that will go up. We have less of that in Italy where we started the coeo clients, but we have only few utilities. So we need to penetrate that market through their technology and [indiscernible] will be the same. We are already doing pilots for certain clients, and we will add coeo clients. So on the -- we have clients we're already working in these markets.
The other point was around the revenue model and Elias can explain it better. But we have already a different revenue model in the U.K., which is not regulated. What they are paying us today in Spain and in Italy, is paid by the client. It's not paid by the customer, and it's a percentage of the collected amount. The main difference is in a much we collect. We collect already as small tickets in Spain, as I said. But usually, you can let between 5% and 10%. What we are collecting today on -- by now operator in Spain is 60% to 70%. And the fees are the same as the others. So you can see that the amount you get in is much higher. The last point is on France. France is a natural trajectory for the coeo business, where they have done a start-up approach as they've done in the Nordic countries. So they can manage it out of the Belgian and Dutch business. Clearly, if we wanted them to go with an NPE business, we would have to go with a platform there. But the expansion we are focusing here is more on the digital side. Maybe Elias, you can support me on the business side of coeo.
A lot of questions. So first, with which clients will we grow and in which regions, apart from the potential diversification into France, we have in Europe, most countries already entered where we want to be. So naturally, if you are in a start-up position like, for example, in the Nordics, growth rates, which are very, very high, easier to achieve than when you are already in a market-leading position. Now on the client side, we are doing both. We are growing with existing clients, and we are growing with new clients. So it's rather leveled out. And on the revenue model in Spain, the 70% collection rate is a little bit ambitious, Manuela, let's say, in the area of 30% to 40% is still.
Because we noticed in last to are here, but yes.
Okay. So and yes, the business model or the revenue model is just, as Manuela described, it's not fee-based, born by the debtor it's by the creditor commission fee. Now on the EBITDA margin, I was just looking up one figure, coeo Group has 24% more revenue per operating FTE year-to-date August. So this tells you something about the EBITDA margin increase that is coming from automation. I was trying to bring through that we were always rather automated compared to peers. But with the AI, this is really, really a game changer. And this is something we see now.
I mean, the start we did -- at first, you need to recruit people. And an AI engineer is typically costing more than an operational collector. But now we are in a good position that this kind of fixed block for the AI engineers and for the PDUs, you have to rent at the cloud services. This is rather stable. And now we see even more EBITDA margin increase there.
Mentor from Banco. So I wanted to ask, we are going to see in the future clearly positive impact of AI on the cost basis and on the EBITDA side. but don't you think that in the long term, this could be counterbalanced on the top line side because the servicing becomes more commodity. So in the long term, servicing pricing goes down?
Yes. This is what we are assuming the plan when we speak about the new model for servicing. The new model will be a lower base fee and similar collection fee. So that's what we are already assuming for the new contracts. The fact is that in our plan horizon, we don't have a decade of the current contracts. But the one we assume new will come with this new model. We have already experienced it because we have repriced, for example, the Santander contract.
The point is knowing breakeven point and lowering the operating leverage that allows you to protect the margin. But that revenue trajectory, it's the one we have already assumed.
Just for clarification, so you are sure that in the long term, this won't be -- have a negative net impact on the very long term.
I think we are assuming here a decline already of the NPE profitability to around EUR 120 million. from the current level. So in the very long term, clearly, the investment we are doing upfront to lower that cost protects your buffer. If we were keeping the same operating model that would have a higher effect, but we are not. We are acting upon it. That's why we are investing upfront to lower that cost base in a significant way.
Davide Giuliano from Equita. The first one on cash generation. You indicated 150 million, EUR 170 million cash generation during the plan and recurring free cash flow of about EUR 100 million, EUR 120 million in 2029. It seems that free cash flow generation after restructuring costs may be a little bit back-end loaded. So could you please detail better the split of free cash flow among the different years and the impact in each of these years coming from restructuring costs and additional CapEx?
The second one on M&A. It seems to me that you stressed quite a bit the available fair power of at least EUR 150 million. Apart from bolt-on acquisition, could you give us more details on the possible transformational targets you may look, I mean companies to improve the scale in Spain, companies to a larger geographical footprint and/or further consolidation in Italy? And the last one on cumulative net inflows during the plan. So you targeted EUR 12 billion during 2027, 2029, so an average of around EUR 4 billion per year. If we look at the full year '25 forward flow contracts, we see that already forward flow contracts exceed the average target. Can you elaborate on the composition of net inflows that you expect going forward?
Davide will take the first one on the cash generation. Davide?
'29 is really not a run rate because we don't have any more extra CapEx to finance debt formation have any more restructuring costs you don't have to pay any earnout. '28 will be the year where we have more cash out because we have a concentration of the EUR 75 million restructuring costs will be mostly concentrated in '28. In '28, we had to pay EUR 40 million over and out, So you cannot just make them then EBITDA, [indiscernible] will grow from '27 to '29 progressed in '28. And '27 started with a say, EBITDA in line with the expectation of '26. So we will have the main part will be the higher CapEx roughly versus the EUR 30 million. So this is more close to EUR 40 million CapEx. And we have a piece of the restructuring costs out to 75 million, EUR 50 million will be spent [indiscernible] is a mean axillary component.
Just a comment on the GBV. The EUR 4 billion we highlighted is only new mandates on the market. It's not included flows that is always roughly EUR 2 billion higher -- it be higher of EUR 2 billion.
So on the M&A front, the -- with the transformation -- the bolt-on is linked to the leader transaction of consolidation we might consider. For us, transformative or transaction of the size we have done in the last 2 years, and that's not -- we were assuming here. We are tackling tactical transaction in markets to sustain certain businesses. To give you the example, U.S., if we have to find the right opportunity there, it needs to be through acquisition, as Elias explained. But the companies have not large size.
So nothing comparable to the EBITDA of coeo this year or of Gardant when we acquired it. The -- as I said, they are to support either the digital collection strategy expansion to certain countries where we go organic or the buildup of the value-added services proposition in the current existing markets.
Thank you for the presentation. Antonio Gianfrancesco from Intermonte. I have several questions. The first one is on the NPE business. because I want to ask you if you can give us a bit more color on Italy specifically? Because I was wondering how much of the EUR 65 million, EUR 70 million efficiency program is expected to come from Italy. And where do you think Italian EBITDA of that business can structurally stay after this cost reset?
The second one is still on NPE and still on Italy, sorry, for that because I understood that the market is ringing this is clear. And in this context, you want to maintain, you want to preserve your market share. So my point is, how should we think about the fee margin of new mandates versus the legacy book? I'm not referring to collection fee but to management fees. And I want to understand if you are assuming some pricing pressure in defending market share? Or what is your strategy to protect this? The third one is a follow-up on the digital collections because you are targeting a very strong growth and a significant margin expansion. So in a market that you described as large and quite fragmented, I want to understand what type of competitive pressure do you expect in the coming years? And what the dynamic relation of pricing?
Now, I'll take the first 2, and Elias will let me with the last one. The -- of the EUR 65 million to EUR 70 million is mostly focused on countries which is Greece, Italy and Cyprus because the restructuring has already happened in Spain. And the North will be Italy, size-wise than Greece and then Cyprus. The -- we have done a lot in the last 2 years in terms of reorganization and cost efficiencies. But there is more to come. And we have probably of that amount, 40% is on the Italian front. And the level of EBITDA on the Italian market will stabilize on the NPE side between 55% with the additional business growing, bringing it to the later part to around 70%.
Now in terms of market share, we were consistent with our market share growth this year. So after the acquisition, we went to 20 to 25, and you have seen the slides where in terms of winning new mandates, we kept that amount. And this didn't come to the expenses of margin. Italy is already the market with the lowest base fee across all the others. It's around 4 to 5 basis points. So we are not expecting that devaluation. But it will be more flexible contract structure shorter. So you need -- because you have these shorter maturities, you need to have a much more flexible cost in guess things change or you need to change client and the likes. So that flexibility is quite critical. Now on the digital collection, Elias, if you can explain how our growth and margin are developing.
So thank you for the question. On the top line growth, it is the clients that we have today and all the new wins we got already and this is really a bottom-up calculation country-by-country, order entry and then coming to revenue. What was not stressed so far is a quite substantial back book that we have today already and if you're growing like we did all the time, you are focusing really on the front-end book very much. So we have a quite nice substantial potential year cash out what we have already on our machine.
Now on the competitive pressure in pricing, so in the amicable part before purchase in most geographies, prices are set by law, more or less. But yes, I see what you mean with price pressure when we purchase, as Davide mentioned, after depending on the client, depending on the structure after a couple of months, yes, there is a competitive pressure, definitely. So this is in I would say, any kind of servicing business that you are working in a competitive landscape. What is very typical for us is that our clients run a -- they call it benchmark panel. So we are -- sometimes we are the sole service provider. This happens as well. But the rule is, I would say, that minimum per country, per product, we have one or more competitors.
So this is nothing new coming up. This was always there. Now strategically, what can you do? You can always try to be the cost leader. And I hope I brought this through that we were always very technology focused and being a front runner on the AI piece. And this is not easy to copy. Believe me, this is not easy at all. There are a lot of mistakes you can make and it's a lot of money, you need to invest in the beginning, and this is what we have done already. So we see a couple of very, very good competitors out there, but typically not the well-known incumbent names of the larger players. So we are not very afraid to compete against those.
And if I can, just a very brief follow-up on that because I want to understand when you have projected 47% margin on digital collections, you assume a broadly unchanged fee scheme, fee framework in terms of regulatory risk because as you said, in some geographies, the -- this is set by local regulatory. So it's right.
So regulation is not very often our friend, sometimes it is. So for example, in Germany, there is a big act about the remuneration in fees that lawyers can take and debt collection companies are taking this as a reference. And whenever you have periods of inflation, those kind of prices are increased. So we have seen this in Germany. We have seen this in Austria, and this is quite natural. I mean if you are selling prices from the government and you have an inflation, it's normal and quite fair to increase prices. So sometimes it's actually even the friend.
But in other instances, for example, in the Netherlands under the new CCD 2 regulation, we see some headwind on the regulation. So -- can I now foresee what regulation will be in 2028 and '29? More or less, there might be surprises. But what we can see now, we have embedded in our planning.
Just to add on this, no, this is a difference, but this as our NPE where we need to protect from the inflation that is increasing the cost on the fee side, there is more pressure there, at least we have normal line and refis to the inflation. So as a Elias said protecting our fee base.
Maybe we'll take some of the questions that we have received from online listeners. So we have a question from Simonetta from Mediobanca. Could you provide some more details on the EUR 140 million cash absorption related to coeo? Is this primarily driven by temporary investments in receivables that are subsequently transferred to the fund. Also, do we expect the receivables portfolio sales to be completed by year-end?
Yes. I'll take this question. Simonetta, the EUR 140 million are all in the 3 years are mostly recurring. Every year, we have EUR 50 million, EUR 45 million of these outflows. This is exactly what you are saying in the [indiscernible] way that coeo is securing the seeing fees. So call it sort of upfront payment to secure the future fees on the portfolio we transfer to the investor. But at the same time, it's also during the first 3 months because I was highlighting before, we first managed the portfolio on behalf of the originator. In the first 4 months, most [indiscernible] are concentrated in the first 4 months. So with these fees, we are able to fund this $40 million, and then we gain again because we collect the fees on the portfolio.
So this is why the cash conversion of coeo we always guided the market with this 45% to 50% cash conversion because there is this component that we report below EBITDA. So this EUR 40 million, EUR 45 million is below the EBITDA, but we wanted to highlight include clearly in our cash flow that is reducing the cash for production. In terms of portfolio, again, our target has been confirmed. We want to sell, we are preparing to dispose this portfolio by the end of the year to reduce the leverage.
Thank you, Davide. We have another 1 maybe for Theodore from Yugara Pere. Greek book seems much younger and likely -- and likely, you'll see some re-performing loans and secondaries appear again. Is that being considered on guidance or its additional optionality?
So it's true that there is younger vintages, but this is captured because Euro bank is already giving us the earlier years. It's part of the original contract. That's why you also see that the cash collection in Greece are higher than the usual in other markets because they go through all the value chain from 0 days past due to 180 past due. Now the other point is around the secondary sales. As you know, these are coming most out of our portfolio because we have built now a EUR 35 billion portfolio there.
Sometimes, and you ask us very often why they shifted from one quarter to the other. They depend on when the clients want to sell. This year, we had a big impact related to the low change, so the investors have waited to do this transaction, but they are pretty much a recurring team because portfolio acquired by these investors in the last 3, 4 years, there already have ports that can be sold where there is additional value to be realized with further investors. So it's pretty recurring. And this is included in the plant.
I may add 2 more thinks about the Greek market. First of all, you know that in Greece, we have a very strong position both in the primary market, which is true is coming to an end. The last big piece was last year, a EUR 5 billion portfolio, which we managed to acquire from [indiscernible] Which is, let's say, the state controlled bad bank, okay. Going forward, we see 3, let's say, opportunities in terms of new business and new flows. The one has to do with the banks and the Greek banks, and I guess, all banks are facing an increasing pressure by some to clean up, to accelerate the cleanup of some areas for bond loans like the so-called step-up loans or stage 2 related loans. That's one area.
The second area has to do with the so-called RPLs, re-performing loans. Already we have in the market, let's say, [indiscernible] the services there's, I would say, around EUR 1 billion of loans, which have been in or almost -- have been cured and they could be repatriated back to the banks. It is true that currently, banks are not so keen to repatriate these loans. That's why we have designed some other structures and trying to sell these loans to third-party funds for gardening these loans and then pass over to the banks. So we did the first transaction last year, EUR 200 million transaction, and that was a very successful market opening transaction, I would say. And the last has to do with the nonfinancial claims. Okay. Greece is a small market compared with other European markets. But we see strong signs from different areas, utilities, buy now pay later, et cetera. So these are the 3 areas which I believe we will see in Greece in the coming period.
Thank you, Theodore. And since we have you on the mic, Thomas would like to ask how is the cooperation with the Greek mezzanine vehicles and are hubs related to collection going?
Normally, we have a very good cooperation with all let's say, bodies from especially HAPS related bodies. HAPS is a very, very big scheme in Greece, more than around EUR 70 billion is under HAPS scheme, HAPS is the equivalent of GACS for Italy. So I would say a very good relationship. Normally, we have a very good cooperation with all, let's say, bodies from -- especially HAPS-related bodies. HAPS is a very, very big scheme in Greece, more than -- around EUR 70 billion is under the HAPS scheme. HAPS is the equivalent of GACS for Italy. So I would say a very good relationship.
Thank you Theodore. Then we have a question from John [ Airak ]. The almost 30% free cash flow, cash conversion seems very low. Can you explain it a little deeper on how the coeo debt purchases impact this and EBITDA?
Yes. Probably we -- I answered already to Simonetta's similar question. Again, the EUR 45 million cash out per year, the EUR 140 million we highlighted is why the cash goes down is cash conversion -- this cash flow conversion. The EBITDA does not include, this negative impact is below EBITDA. This is why we wanted to highlight in the cash flow that this is a specific item that is impacting our free cash flow conversion.
Thank you Davide. We have another question from Erin Tafarshiku from Franklin Templeton. Has the coeo acquisition gone as expected thus far? I note your LTM H1 '26 non-NPL revenues are a way off from your full year '26 target of 30%, 35%. Is this on track?
Yes. Maybe here, the magic has not been understood. It's actually much better than on track. Now the target was 30%, 35%. We have now more -- almost 50% coming from non-NPL. We have much higher diversification. The transaction is going much better than we expected. We guided this year to EUR 60 million EBITDA, and you will see that for the 9 months, they have already passed the EUR 60 million. For the full year, they will be adding to a much significant upside. So we are glad.
Thank you, Manuela. Then we have a question from Eric [ Mosenger ]. Should we expect a growing dividend between 2027, 2029? Or should we expect a stable dividend of EUR 0.20 to EUR 0.25 per year in the next 3 years, which translates to around EUR 100 million, EUR 150 million in dividends?
Yes. As we illustrated in the slide, we highlighted that what will be the cash available for shareholder remuneration, gross debt reduction and bolt-on M&A. Assuming we will have EUR 150 million fully available for dividend, you can expect a growing dividend. But of course, this will depend on how we will decide to deploy this free cash flow generation in the next 3 years. We already are starting a buyback of EUR 10 million, which is an anticipation of the remuneration that we envisage to give the shareholder in 2027.
Maybe on the buyback, because we got a question in the past on this topic. The core shareholders are not going to be part of it. It's for the market because clearly, now they are aligned that there is much more value upside here. I think you will appreciate also their stand on this point.
Thank you, Manuela. A question from Raman Narula from Principal Asset Management. Given the new collection from new business more than offset declining collection of legacy stocks and unit fees are stable, why is NPE revenue forecast to decline as the bulk of the NPE revenue comes from the variable collection component?
As we highlighted with also Theodore, we are assuming that the new flows that will come in next year will be very low level, even low level in terms of volumes versus the previous plan that was already low, and we demonstrated that we are able to overachieve the target. So it's correct that the new flows will embed more collection, but we are assuming to have only EUR 4 billion per year of new volumes coming into the market. This will offset for sure, partially the legacy stock decline. But what you are saying will happen in case the volumes will be higher versus our expectation. This is, I would say, an upside of our plan in case the NPE formation will be much higher in the next 3 years.
Okay. A question from Patrick McElroy from Citi. Of the EUR 110 million of EBITDA generated from value-added services and digital collection by 2029, could you please give the split between value-added service contribution versus digital collections?
So maybe here something was not clear enough, but EUR 110 million now was...
Yes. We have actually the page below -- yes, this one, I think, gives you the split. The digital collection contributing EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million and the value-added servicing, EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million. That should address this point.
Okay. Thank you, Manuela. Then we have another question on the portfolio sale from [ Thomas Moroder ]. The 2026 leverage guidance of 2.4x, 2.6x EBITDA assumes completion of the coeo portfolio sale by year-end. Can you give us an update on the process? Are you already in advanced discussion with buyers? And should we still think of approximately 0.5x leverage reduction as the right proceed assumption?
This is in line with what Davide has said. We have not advanced with buyers. We have identified the buyers. We are going to transfer to the fund. We are the investor of the fund. So it's a question of structuring and leverage on the portfolio. We also identified the providers. So it's a question of execution.
Thank you, Manuela. A question from David Masters from Payden & Rygel.
I have 2 questions. Can you remind us the current EBITDA specifically from the NPE business in 2025, i.e., how does this compare to the EUR 120 million, EUR 130 million expected by 2029 from the NPE business? And second, given the higher political macro volatility, can you explain the decision to run with a slightly higher leverage ratio target?
Yes. On the question about EBITDA on 2025 was -- sorry. On the EBITDA, 2025 was mainly -- let me check the numbers, is EUR 190 million. This is including also the -- so EUR 70 million -- EUR 190 million was including also the VAS. This is how we compare the data. EUR 170 million was in 2025 versus the EUR 120 million we expect in '29. Again, this is because we are reducing the volumes and we are compensated with the action on the cost.
On the second point, we have always targeted around this level of around 2x, and we are consistent with it. If you look to our trajectory, by '29, it is going to go to 1.6x. So we have the ability to be at 1.6x below that level. Obviously, we will wait the distribution and any use of that excess capital based on the market condition and on the uncertainty of the market. But the pace of deleveraging goes to much lower levels.
Thank you, Manuela. We'll take the last question. And then as I said at the beginning, we were always available to engage with you offline. This is from Paolo Geuna from Banca Akros.
Can we assume an opportunistic approach in the refinancing of doValue's 7% 2030, not balancing international exposure synergy and redemption option cost once it formally became the first maturity of the value debt structure?
Second, your financial debt guidance looks not too far from metrics that could imply a rating upgrade from BB to BB+. Is that an aim over the plan or you are satisfied with current status?
On the first point, clearly depends on market conditions because in February, we will have an option at 103. So it depends where the market stays. If the market with lower spreads, but today in the current condition, maybe it's not the case, will offset the cost we have to pay for the call option, we will consider. Otherwise, not. Because it's a simple NPV exercise.
On the second front, it's correct that our metrics are inducive of higher ratings. What the rating agency want to see is the year-end numbers, and then they will reassess to consider potentially an upside to the metrics. We are aligned with them. We have a very positive interaction with agencies through our 5 years. We have done a different transformational transaction. They followed us in this process. They waited for our delivery, which they are very satisfied with. That's why they kept the rating.
Now we need to deliver on this further deleveraging for them to consider the new metrics in this bigger dimension, which is something they were focused on because one of the cap of our rating was also the size Given now we are moving to a different size level, they might be moving to a better rating trajectory.
Thank you, Manuela, and thank you, everybody, for listening and tuning in. Have a good day.
Dovalue — Analyst/Investor Day - doValue S.p.A.
Dovalue — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the doValue First Half 2026 Financial Results Presentation.
[Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations of doValue. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at doValue. I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO; and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present doValue's Q2 2026 financial results.
It is the first quarter to fully reflect the consolidation of coeo. This transformative transaction is already contributing to a stronger growth profile for the group. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance and the key market dynamics. Davide will then provide a detailed review of the second quarter financial results, cash generation, and financial structure. We will conclude, as usual, with a Q&A session.
Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning, everyone. The first half of 2026 marks an important step in the evolution of doValue. The group is now more diversified across geographies, clients, and credit segments. Digital receivables have become a material part of our revenue and earnings base, while our traditional servicing platform continues to provide scale, visible cash flows, and AI-insulated servicing capabilities.
The half year delivered on the priorities we set out for this phase: growth in digital receivables, profitability, a stronger capital structure, and an established servicing platform. Let me highlight 4 key developments from the first half.
First, digital receivables. The business of coeo continued to deliver strong growth. Revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, supported by 5 million new files onboarded during the period. coeo client base continued to diversify beyond its historical anchor relationship and growth remains ahead of the assumption in our original acquisition case. Second, pro forma group EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, reached EUR 121 million. In the second quarter alone, EBITDA grew 21% year-on-year. Profitability benefits from coeo inputs on AI automation, while the doValue business continued to implement disciplined cost actions. Third, we further strengthened our capital structure. The recent refinancing extended our debt maturities and is expected to generate approximately EUR 4 million of annual interest savings while enforcing liquidity and financial flexibility.
The picture of the first half is a group with a faster-growing engine, a more efficient cost base, a longer and cheaper debt structure, and a servicing platform that keeps replenishing itself. That is the base from which we run the second half.
Let's now turn to Page 4, and look more closely at digital receivables. This is the engine of the group next phase of growth and in the first half, it accelerated. Revenue was up 25% year-on-year and EBITDA reached EUR 46 million. The quality of that growth matters as much as the rate. Germany, which is by far our largest market for digital receivables, grew 21% year-on-year. This is scale compounding on an already large base, not a small base effect. And it comes with efficiency, not with headcount. Indeed, new files under the full-time employee were up 21% year-on-year as automation absorbed the additional volume.
Second, diversification is accelerating. Collection revenue from clients other than coeo anchor customers was up 50% year-on-year. Behind that number, there is a complete commercial pipeline. We signed 11 new contracts this year, worth more than EUR 10 million of incremental annualized revenue and around 350,000 new files per year across 6 different sectors: telcos, utilities, insurance, mobility, commerce, and financial services. This is the practical answer to the question of whether the platform can extend beyond this anchor relationship and beyond buy now, pay later. It already is.
Third, a word on the own portfolio, which is the part of this business that is least familiar to our investors. We hold the receivable portfolio with an expected market value of EUR 120 million, EUR 140 million, with an estimated remaining collection value of EUR 170 million. Let me clear on where this is going. The disposal process on this portfolio is progressing, and we expect to complete it by end of this year. At that point, the group will be fully asset-light, a pure servicing and receivable management platform with no balance sheet exposure to the receivable we've managed.
Two points are worth making while that process is completed. First, this portfolio is limited in size relative to our balance sheet, and it turns into cash very quickly. EUR 61 million of collection in 6 months against EUR 120 million, EUR 140 million of market value speaks for itself. To give you a measure of how quickly this portfolio converts into cash, receivables purchased in the second Q have already returned 20% of the amount invested during the same quarter.
Second, for as long as we own it, the group retains that cash generation. So the time to completion is not a cost to us. It has cash flow in the meanwhile. We will complete the sale on the right terms, and we still expect that to be within this year.
Let's now turn to Page 5, which shows how that growth is actually produced, deepening automation in our core markets and scale in the newer ones. Let's start with automation.
Total automation in Germany reached 77% at the end of June, up from 69% in December, 8 percentage points in 6 months. In practice, cAI, our proprietary AI platform handled around 1.3 million interactions on a fully automated basis in the half, 400,000 more than in the second half of the year and more than 1 million files were closed with no human involvement at all, up 23% from 854,000 a year ago.
The reason we spend time on the numbers is that they translate directly into unit economics. Human-assisted contacts per file were down 24% versus the second half of '25. The same file now requires materially less human effort, which is what lowers our cost to collect. The automation is moving up the complexity curve, not just handling simple cases. By June, 62% of cAI-related e-mails were processed straight through against 41% in January and 75% of documents against 49%. This is deployed technology with measurable outputs in production environment, not a pilot.
Now the second half of the page, scale outside Germany. Revenue in the markets outside our core grew 28% to EUR 50.6 million, and the newest platform are the fastest growing. In the Nordics, revenue reached EUR 15.6 million, up 83%, with Sweden at EUR 11.6 million. Norway went from EUR 0.1 million to EUR 1.9 million and turned profitable in the second part of the year of operation.
In DACH, outside Germany, revenue was EUR 12 million, up 52%, with Austria at EUR 7.6 million, and Switzerland at EUR 3 million, delivering its first profitable half year. Finland has launched and is generating its first revenue, and Denmark is next, which will bring the group to 14 countries. The pattern here is what matters more than any single country. The greenfield playbook is repeatable. It requires very limited capital and it reaches profitability quickly.
Finally, the box at the bottom of the page, which is the part I would draw your attention to because it's new. Cross-selling between doValue and coeo has moved from intentions to signed contracts in both directions. doValue signed and is already operational on a new mandate with German banks. Relevant because banks carry around EUR 50 billion of nonperforming loans, a stock up 67% since 2020 in a servicing market with no skilled incumbent.
In the other direction, coeo signed contracts with payment and e-commerce operator in Spain and Italy, where our operation is now active, and Greece follows in September, also with the first deployment of the cAI voice agent in a doValue market.
Let's now turn to new business on Page 6, where I want to start with the single most important fact on this page. We have already delivered the new business target of our business plan. Since the start of the plan, we have won EUR 27 billion of new business against the '24-'26 target of EUR 24 billion. The target is achieved 6 months before the end of the plan. And in the first half alone, we added EUR 3.1 billion of GBV made up of EUR 1.5 billion of new mandates and EUR 1.6 billion of forward flows. On top of that, secondary sales amounted to an overall EUR 0.5 billion, of which EUR 0.2 billion being the first-ever sale of reperforming loans in Greece occurring in the first quarter.
By region, the picture is uneven. Spain had a strong half, adding around EUR 450 million of new business from 2 banking institutions. One in new relationship, the other is the shifted contract perimeter with Santander. Italy signed around EUR 200 million of new mandates with forward flows from Banco BPM, and BPER growing 46%, mostly driven by the contribution of Banca Popolare di Sondrio within the BPER perimeter. In the Hellenic region, activity was visibly softer in the second quarter as market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach while the Katseli framework evolves.
Now a word on the quality of this new business because volume alone would be a misleading way to read this page. The market is more complex, particularly in Italy, where collection has been softer and the flow of new business across the market has slowed in 2026. Looking at the second half, we expect several portfolios to come to market from secondary transactions in the coming months. For doValue, although with a lower collection rate, this is generally new business, new mandates, new investor relationship, and incremental GBV under management.
Before turning to guidance, let's look at the market backdrop on Page 7. The European NPE market has evolved into a new equilibrium, underpinning more than EUR 2 billion of addressable servicing revenue across our core footprint over '26, '29 period. This is not the same market we had 10 years ago when banks were dealing with very large legacy stocks at the peak of the NPL cycle. The market is smaller than the peak NPL market of the past, but more disciplined, more returning, and more sustainable. And this is where the role of the servicer becomes systemic.
The second message is equally important. The opportunity is no longer limited to banking NPEs. Technology and AI are making it economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional human servicing market. This is exactly where the combination with coeo becomes strategically powerful.
doValue brings scale, licenses, institutional relationships, and deep servicing expertise. coeo brings a highly automated AI-enabled platform for small ticket, high-volume receivables. Together, we can address both sides of the market, the new equilibrium in banking NPE, and emerging opportunities in the other credit and receivables segments.
On the basis of this strategic backdrop, let me turn to what this means for our full year 2026 outlook. Across our markets, performance remained differentiated. Italy continues to face low primary NPE volumes as bank default ratio remain near historical lows. The aging stock of existing portfolio and the slower-than-expected expansion of value-added services are adding to the challenge.
Greece is performing well, although regular development may delay some secondary market transactions, while Spain continues to progress, but as yet not on optimal scale. Most importantly, coeo continues to deliver double-digit growth, ahead of expectation and structurally less exposed to the NPE cycle. Taking these 3 elements together, we believe our full year 2026 pro forma EBITDA guidance of approximately EUR 300 million remains within reach, assuming that coeo continues to perform broadly in line with the first half and the group is able to adapt its cost base to the new market reality, both areas where management is strongly focused on and has delivered.
On leverage, delivery remains dependent on 2 key drivers: completion of the coeo receivable portfolio sale, and the expected normalization of NPL working capital, with encouraging trends already visible in the second quarter. At the same time, the strategic direction of the group is clear. We are building a broader, more diversified and more technology-enabled platform, with digital receivables providing an additional engine of growth, and the servicing franchise continue to generate scale and cash flow.
This give us confidence in the group ability to navigate the current market environment and deliver shareholder value beyond 2026. You will hear more on this on the next -- 18th of October in our Capital Markets Day.
Now I will hand over to Davide, for a detailed financial overview of the quarter.
Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. Let's start on Page 9, with the second quarter financial highlights. The second quarter results provide the first full quarter view of the larger group, including coeo. Gross revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to EUR 181 million, primarily reflecting the first time contribution from coeo. Net revenue increased by 17% to EUR 148 million. The difference between gross and net revenue growth reflects the different operating model of coeo, where a large proportion of cost is recorded through outsourcing fees. Outsourcing fees, therefore, represented 18% of gross revenue in the quarter.
EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, increased by 21% to EUR 58 million, supported by contribution and resilient profitability in the Hellenic region. The EBITDA margin remained broadly stable at 32% compared with 34% in the second quarter of last year. This reflects the contribution from coeo, resilient stability and operating flexibility in the Hellenic region, partly offset by the weaker performance in Italy.
Below EBITDA, net income, excluding nonrecurring items, was EUR 3 million, broadly flat year-on-year. Higher EBITDA more than offset the effect from the negative items arising from the consolidation of coeo, including PPA amortization and the interest expense associated with the bond issued to finance the acquisition.
On completeness, on first half pro forma basis, assuming coeo has been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items would have reached EUR 121 million, while group net income, excluding nonrecurring items, would have remained positive at EUR 16 million. Both these figures are relevant because they are coherent with guidance figures.
Finally, coeo's own portfolio generated EUR 31 million of cash collection in the quarter and EUR 61 million in the first 6 months. These collections relate to principal and that fall outside EBITDA, while the related collection fees are recognized in the gross revenue. We do not think cash EBITDA is the most appropriate metric to assess the operating performance as our model remains fundamentally servicing. However, while the portfolio is still on balance sheet, if you want to look at EBITDA on a more comparable basis with debt purchases, the information provided on portfolio cash collection for investments and related accounting treatment gives you the elements to do so.
Overall, the second quarter showed a stronger scale and broader earnings base of the enlarged group. It also shows that this diversification into a growing market provides a meaningful buffer, although not yet entirely offsetting the softer dynamics affecting part of the traditional servicing business.
Let us now move to Page 10, where we show how significantly the group's revenue mix has evolved over the past 12 months. Digital collection already represent 31% of group revenue compared with 43% from NPL servicing. One year ago, NPL servicing accounted for 64% of group revenue and value-added services was 17%. Today, the enlarged group has significantly more balanced mix, 43% in NPL servicing, 31% digital collection, 12% non-NPL servicing and 14% value-added services. This is more than a perimeter effect. It represents a structural change in the composition of the group.
Digital collections provide the group with a meaningful exposure to structurally growing markets, supported by the continued expansion of consumer credit, digital commerce, and recurring outsourced receivables management across financial and nonfinancial clients. They also significantly expand our presence in Central and Northern Europe. At the same time, specialist servicing remains a sizable and highly relevant franchise.
NPL servicing is still the largest component of group revenues, and it continues to provide scale, long-standing client relationship, specialist state management capabilities, and cash generation across Southern Europe. The strategic value in the larger group comes from combining these 2 platforms. We retain our leadership expertise in complex servicing while adding a digital collection business with a broader exposure across geographies, clients, and sectors.
The more balanced revenue mix reduces the group's exposure to individual NPL market dynamics while retaining a sizable and resilient credit franchise. This is particularly important in the current market environment where traditional servicing trends remain different across countries. Such trends do not remove the near-term impact of the softer dynamics currently affecting Italy. However, the contribution from digital collection is already mitigating part of that pressure and, over time, should make the group structurally less dependent on any single geography or sales cycle. Overall, the slide shows a group that is materially more diversified than 12 months ago, still anchored in specialist servicing, but now complemented by digital collection platform that already represents almost 1/3 of revenues and provides an additional engine for future growth and earnings resilience.
Moving to Page 11, we can see how the broader revenue base translated in EBITDA. EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, increased by 21% year-on-year from EUR 48 million to EUR 58 million, primarily reflecting the first-time contribution from coeo and the resilient profitability of the Atlantic region. The EBITDA margin remained broadly stable at 32% compared with 34% in the second quarter of last year. This demonstrates the resilience of the group despite the pressure affecting business.
On a first half pro forma basis, assuming that coeo has been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA excluding nonrecurring items reached EUR 121 million, up 25% compared to the first half 2025, with margin of 33%. The first message is scale. The larger group is now operating from a materially broader mix base. Q2 EBITDA increased to EUR 68 million and first half pro forma EBITDA to EUR 120 million.
The second message is margin resilience. EBITDA margin was 32% in Q2, and 33% on a first half pro forma basis. This reflects the contribution from coeo growing as increasingly automated platform together with the operating flexibility of servicing business. At the same time, we are not ignoring the trend impact of the traditional servicing business.
Italy remains affected by softer collection, lower primary NP volumes, and a lower contribution from value-added services. Proactive cost mitigation measures are already underway to align the cost base to the current volume trends. Spain and the Hellenic region continues providing support to the group's profitability. In particular, the Hellenic region remained resilient despite softer market activity while Spain continued to benefit from cost discipline as the business progresses towards optimal scale.
Moving on to Page 12. I would like to spend a moment on coeo's own portfolio, which is an important component of both the cash generation profile of the business and our transition towards an asset-light model. The first point is that this is a fast turning and cash-generative portfolio. At the end of June, the portfolio had an estimated market value of approximately EUR 120 million to EUR 140 million and estimated remaining collection of approximately EUR 170 million over 120 months. These figures refer to expected principal collection and therefore, exclude the collection fees generated by the platform.
The portfolio comprises approximately 8 million files and generated EUR 60 million of principal cash collection in the first half of 2026. This collection were recorded for the benefit of doValue balance sheet and demonstrate the speed at which the portfolio converts into cash. The rapid conversion is also visible in the most recent investment. Of the EUR 48 million reinvested in portfolio purchases during the second quarter, 20% had already been collected by the end of June. This is the defining feature of coeo's portfolio model. Capital is deployed into granular receivables that start converting to cash very quickly.
The second point is strategic. Our objective is not to maintain a permanently capital-intensive portfolio business. As announced at the time of the acquisition, our strategy is to divest the full investment portfolio and maintain the group as an asset-light servicing platform. We continue to target completion of the disposal within 2026, preserving coeo servicing and technology capabilities while removing the balance sheet intensity associated with the portfolio ownership. Until the disposal is completed, the portfolio remains a temporary but meaningful source of cash generation.
The final point is how investors should think about the portfolio while it remains on our balance sheet. From an operating perspective, this is not strategic departure from doValue servicing-led model. It is a portfolio that come with coeo. It generates significant cash while we own it and it is expected to be sold as part of our transition to the full asset-light structure. At the same time, as we discussed earlier, the related cash collection and investments are important for understanding cash generation and comparability with debt purchaser. We do not intend to manage the group around debt purchasing metric, but we are providing the information needed to bridge that view if analysts choose to do so. The key message is therefore straightforward. The portfolio is fast-growing, cash generative and on track for disposal, while the strategic destination of the group remain an asset-light servicing and receivable management platform.
Let's now move to Page 13, where I will take you through the main items between EBITDA and group net income. EBITDA excluding nonrecurring items was EUR 57.6 million in the second quarter compared to EUR 47 million in prior year. Nonrecurring items within EBITDA amounted to EUR 7.4 million, mainly linked to the acquisition of coeo. After these items, reported EBITDA was EUR 50 million, up EUR 5.5 million year-on-year.
Below EBITDA, depreciation, amortization, net write-downs provision and adjustments amounted to EUR 32.6 million, an increase of EUR 7.1 million year-on-year that mainly reflects the consolidation of coeo and the related preliminary purchase price allocation. As a result, EBIT was EUR 17.5 million compared with EUR 20.1 million in Q2 2025.
Net financial expenses and net gain and losses on financial assets amounted to EUR 16 million, increasing by EUR 2.6 million year-on-year. This reflects the cost of the bond and RCF used to finance temporary holding of coeo receivable portfolio. This results in EBT of EUR 1.5 million. Income taxes amounted to EUR 9.3 million, slightly higher than the previous period, reflecting the contribution from profitable entities across the group, including coeo.
Minority interest amounted to EUR 3.7 million, increasing by approximately EUR 1.1 million year-on-year and relates to the group's partnership with BPER, Banco BPM, and Eurobank. Group net income, excluding nonrecurring items was positive at EUR 3.3 million compared with EUR 2.8 million of Q2 2025. On a first half pro forma basis, assuming coeo has been consolidated from the beginning of the year, EBITDA excluding items would have been EUR 120 million, while ordinary net income would have been EUR 16 million. The main takeaway, net income, excluding nonrecurring, is growing just after the first quarter of full consolidation of coeo, proving the EPS-accretive nature of the transaction.
Moving to Page 14. The key message is the significant improvement in cash generation during the second quarter and importantly, the full reversal of the working capital absorption recorded in Q1. Starting from the reported EBITDA, the quarter also includes a EUR 2.4 million noncash IFRS line item related to the coeo receivable portfolio and EUR 31.4 million cash collection from coeo on the portfolio, recorded for the balance sheet.
Net working capital contributed EUR 38.9 million in the second quarter, fully recovering the absorption recorded in Q1, in line with our expectations. This compares with a positive working capital contribution of EUR 3.4 million for the first half, confirm the first quarter absorption was temporary and fully reversed in Q2, and that the Q1 absorption was driven by timing rather than a structural deterioration in the group's cash conversion.
Other assets and liabilities absorbed EUR 39 million. This includes recurring cash items such as IFRS 16 payments and redundancy costs, as well as specific temporary and nonrecurring effects. In particular, the quarter includes an approximately EUR 8 million delayed cash impact related to the VAT dispute in Greece with the Greek Tax Authority. Following the ruling, we expect this amount to be fully recovered, making it only a shift in timing.
The line also includes EUR 12 million cash mismatch, the 100% payment of the 2025 management incentive plan versus the 6-month accrual for 2026. After this movement and EUR 7 million of CapEx, cash flow from operations reached EUR 76 million compared with EUR 33 million in the second quarter of the last year. Adjusting for transaction costs and temporary VAT effect in Greece, recurring operating cash flow was EUR 90 million.
After taxes and financial charge of EUR 20.9 million, recurring free cash flow amounted to EUR 68 million in the quarter. This demonstrates the strong cash generation capacity of the larger group once temporary and transaction items are separated from the underlying performance. Reported free cash flow was EUR 64.1 million compared with EUR 19 million in Q2 '25.
Below free cash flow, the reported cash flow before debt repayment was significantly affected by 2 clearly identifiable items. The first was the EUR 38.5 million net cash impact from the acquisition. The second was EUR 48.2 million investment in customer receivables, reflecting strong file intake supporting future collection revenue. As discussed in the previous page, this portfolio investment has rapid cash conversion profile. Near 20% of the amount invested during the quarter has already been collected by the end of June.
The reported cash flow before debt repayment was therefore negative by EUR 370.8 million, but this figure is not representative of the group's underlying cash generation as it includes the acquisition consideration from coeo and the portfolio investment. The key takeaway from this page that recurring cash generation remained strong, while the working capital absorption recorded at the end of Q1 was fully reversed during the second quarter. This cash generation capacity together with the planned portfolio disposal remains an important support for the group's deleveraging trajectory.
Let us now move to Page 16, and look at the group financial structure and deleveraging trajectory. The key message on this page is that the reported leverage at the end of June reflects the completion of the acquisition, the related financing and dividend payments made during the first half. Reported net debt was EUR 855 million at June 2026, corresponding to reported net leverage of 3.1x. This includes the acquisition debt, the cash impact of the transaction, and the dividend payments, which were not included within the leverage guidance.
The slide also shows a pro forma view excluding the coeo receivable back book. On that basis, net debt would have been approximately EUR 722 million and leverage approximately 2.6x, comparable to the 2.2x guidance dividend or 2.3x post-'25 dividend paid in May 2026.
Liquidity remains solid. The group had approximately EUR 168 million of cash on balance sheet at June 2026, after the effect of the financing action completed after quarter, and further strengthened the maturity profile and financial flexibility. Our outstanding bonds are currently trading at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest levels in the sector, while the average cost of debt is now approximately 5.9%, following the recent refinancing.
Importantly, both Fitch and Standard & Poor's have confirmed the group's BB rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the stronger business profile and expectation that deleverage remains a clear management priority. The path to the leverage is supported by 3 elements: recurring cash generation, the planned sale of the receivables, and the lower financial cost following the refinancing. We have also completed important action on the liability side of the balance sheet.
As you can see on Page 16, in July, we put in place EUR 330 million of new bank facility comprising of EUR 150 million term loan and [ EUR 80 ] million revolving credit facility, replacing the previous facilities. The refinancing followed the EUR 61 million of our 2031 senior secured notes. The proceeds were primarily used to prepay EUR 50 million of existing term loan.
The new financing package delivers 3 clear benefits. First, it reduces our financial financing costs. The new blended cost of debt is approximately 5.9%, broadly in line with the trading level of our 2031 senior secured notes. We expect the refinancing to generate approximately EUR 4 million of annual interest savings, providing direct support to cash generation.
Second, it materially improves our maturity profile. The maturity of the term loan has been extended from October 2029 to July 2031, while the revolving credit facility has been extended from October 2027 to July 2031. The term loan will begin amortizing from the second year with approximately 40% remaining value at the final maturity. The group, therefore, has no material refinancing wall before 2030.
Third, the new facilities provide greater covenant flexibility and additional financial headroom while maintaining a diversified funding structure across bank financing and capital market instruments. Following this transaction, our funding structure comprises EUR 330 million of bank facilities, EUR 410 million of senior secured notes due in 2031, and EUR 300 million of notes due in 2030.
These actions do not change our focus on deleveraging. They make the path more efficient by reducing interest costs, extending maturities, and strengthening financial flexibility. The group, therefore, enters the second half with a broader earnings base, a stronger funding structure, and clear financial priorities, delivering recurring cash generation, complete portfolio disposal, and continued deleveraging.
This concludes our presentation. Thank you for your attention. We will now be happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Tommaso Nieddu, Kepler Cheuvreux.
2. Question Answer
I have 2. The first one is on Italy's region. So can you unpack the drivers behind the Italy EBITDA decline in more detail? How much is lower collection activity, market conditions versus phasing or one-off items? And also, what gives you confidence this reverse in H2 rather than representing a new run rate?
The second question is on guidance. Given that the H1 results were quite soft on the stand-alone business, so can you walk us through the bridge to the EUR 300 million full year EBITDA guidance? And how much of the required H2 step-up is Italy normalization versus continued outperformance versus Hellenic and Spain region? Also on your guidance, now there is a new exclusion, which is the impact of the portfolio sales. So can you quantify what magnitude are we talking about?
Thank you, Tommaso. Now on Italy, the EBITDA of the first half of last year had around EUR 10 million, EUR 11 million of sales disposals which were related to portfolio of our clients, which were sold, which didn't happen in this part of the year. So basically, taking out that element, the remaining difference is mostly driven by the collection trend in this part of the year that will be picking up in the second part, together with the cost action should stabilize the EBITDA to levels which are net of the EUR 10 million, EUR 11 million of extraordinary of the first half of 2025 to the new level for the EBITDA of this year versus last year numbers. So stabilization is taking out these effects.
Regarding the other businesses, as you have seen, the Greek business is improving in terms of collection, and this is driving the upward trend on the NPE revenues. On the other side, clearly in the first half of last year, we had some sales that did not happen in this part. And this is due to the regulatory environment, which has stopped investors from taking decision before the court came out on the Katseli law, and it was clear now what they could recover or not so that they can put a plan in place for the second part, which they did for the secondary sales.
Regarding the other 2 markets, the dynamic is positive, although they are minor in size. And the restructuring of the Spanish business is bringing now the company which is growing EBITDA, but also below EBITDA has no losses and will produce cash, and will be a positive contributor to cash flow of the group.
Clearly, on the coeo side, we are only assuming a trend which is similar to the first half, not additional upside, although you have seen that the business has been benefiting from not only the underlying market trends, which are positive for e-commerce and buy now, pay later, but also from the higher penetration into new clients, which is driving down the contribution of the main client, Klarna, from 50% to 40% of file intake, which is a very important step taking into account that Klarna itself continues to grow by more than 20% year-on-year.
The other positive aspect that you will see in the dynamic of the EBITDA of the contribution of the other countries because obviously, the revenue growth trajectory, with stable cost base because of the dynamics on the automation of the processes there will have a full effect on EBITDA beyond also the diversification that the business is doing to the other doValue countries. The contribution of coeo to doValue countries obviously is netted off in the company. So you see it on the doValue side. You will not see it on the coeo side, but coeo is contributing that to the growth also of the other countries, and this will be evident in the second part of the year.
On the overall guidance, obviously, we are very keen not only on revenue and EBITDA, but also on the leverage. And there, I think the 2 drivers are very clear. It's the disposal of the portfolio where the timing we are taking is to optimize the price, not because it's a question of selling. And the more we hold on into it, more cash we have from the portfolio. It's a very profitable one, as you have seen from the statistics that Davide has provided. We are not including cash metrics as the debt purchaser do because our business will be soon asset-light, but gives you a metric that explains also the high turning of the purchase price of the portfolios into real cash.
Now on the bridge of guidance, Davide will provide more details.
Yes, mainly on coeo, your question was about coeo. We always communicated to the market a clear target of coeo. Start with EUR 60 million when we acquired, clarifying that those EUR 60 million would have roughly 45%, 50% of cash conversion. So this lower cash conversion mainly because the cash include the aspect of the portfolio. So what we are saying that our target is coherent with the target we achieve to the market when we acquired the company. So we will have EBITDA target. We continue to have this roughly 45%, 50% cash conversion that will include net effect for the portfolio.
Maybe another data point we should highlight on the guidance of the year-end. Last year, we had EUR 99 million of EBITDA out of a full year result of EUR 217 million. Today, we have EUR 121 million of EBITDA pro forma versus a guidance of approximately EUR 300 million. So you can do the proportion there. Obviously, we are adding a business which has not the seasonality as the traditional business, and that's why we are assuming a stable contribution despite the dynamics that we have explained about the new business intake at coeo.
Yes. Sorry, just a follow-up. So about the secondary sales that didn't materialize in H1, regarding that, should we expect them to materialize in H2? Or you don't have any kind of visibility on that?
Yes, we have a pipeline of secondary sales for the second Q. In our guidance, we are more conservative on the full year on that. So if all were to materialize, obviously, it would be better. But we are -- the sales are in the pipeline for the second Q -- second half, sorry.
The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco, Intermonte.
Two questions. The first one is on coeo because you reported EUR 56 million revenues and EUR 18 million EBITDA in the second quarter. This is implying a margin of around 31%. But if I look at what you reported in the first quarter, coeo was indicated at EUR 64 million revenue and EUR 26 million EBITDA, so something like 41% EBITDA margin. Maybe I misunderstood something, but I wanted to better understand why revenues and EBITDA are down quarter-on-quarter and what you consider the clean underlying margin of the business, which integration onboarding on commercial cost we should expect in the second half? And what revenue and EBITDA contribution is now embedded in your full year guidance for coeo?
The second question is on new business because the new business intake reached EUR 3.1 billion in the first half and the GBV remained broadly stable, let's say. But traditional service revenues continue to decline. So I want to understand if the new mandates are entering at comparable fees and margin levels. And if -- or let's say, how quickly this commercial intake should translate into revenue and EBITDA contribution?
I will take your first question, coeo. We expect that the average margin in between -- as Daniele said, between 35%, 37%. First half is 37%, making the average -- we expect 35% because as we have already discussed during the first quarter call, coeo seasonality is strong in this quarter than the last one -- on the second one. So first quarter is always stronger quarter, so we are going to benefit to have higher margin. But on average, if we look full year, we expect a 35% margin. So also where we have again, third quarter a little bit lower than the first quarter. It will be a little bit higher. So on average, we expect 35%.
On the new business intake, as you have seen from Greece last year, the EUR 7 billion are now producing the collection, and we expect a similar lagging period for this business. The positive part of this contribution of the EUR 3.1 billion is that half of it comes from forward flow. So from fresh vintages, especially on the Greek and BPER contracts, which are the majority component embedded.
To this business, we are adding separately other opportunities, which are related to the digital collection business to the NFC business, which are not valued on GBV basis only. That's why we added the new metrics which are related to file intake and the like, which are more similar to the small ticket business of -- to give you an order of magnitude of how that trajectory is moving up.
Obviously, the last component on the VAS side. To give you an order of magnitude on Italy, last year, the VAS plus non-NPL revenue were 41% in the first half this year are 51%. So more we grow this component, higher will be -- lower will be the contribution of the NPL. And that type of cost initiative we make will allow to exploit the maximum cash contribution from the traditional NPL while benefiting from the growth of the second half. And this is what our new business plan is primarily about. This shift organic into the new revenue dynamic and extracting as much cash from an EBITDA margin perspective and from a cash flow perspective from the traditional NPL business.
The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediobanca.
I have a few. The first is on Italy and specifically on the trend in collections that were down 21% in the second quarter, 16% in the first half. So could you help us to understand what is happening on that side? And in particular, what changed with respect to your original expectations when you acquired Gardant?
And also, actually, VAS revenues declined year-on-year in the first half. So if it's possible to explain this trend. And on the cost side, costs remained flat. So how is the cost structure? Is it completely fixed? So no correlation with the revenue trend? On a different issue, could you give us a quick update on the tax receivable project in Italy? And another couple of questions. If possible, you gave the ERC of coeo over 120 months. It looks a very long period. Is the collection profile so long for coeo? And finally, if you could provide the details of the EUR 40 million other asset liability cash absorption in the first half.
Yes. On your first question, Simonetta, yes, the collections were down. Basically, we experienced lower new business intake from newer vintages. And as the amount of GBV of older vintages was weighting more, the collection rate decreased and hence, the overall collection from the business were down.
So answering to your question of what's changed vis-a-vis the original expectation of Gardant, I would say it also comes to market condition in Italy. We have lower volumes from primary deals and hence, lower collection from previous vintages. On the other hand, this trend was partially compensated from higher volumes from forward flow from existing partners of Gardant. But of course, this wasn't enough to compensate the shortfall on the primary transaction in the market.
On the cost side, we have run the efficiency measures in the first half. So the exits are happening between June and July, and therefore, you will see the impact on the cost in the second half. But this is regarding projects. So it will not -- it will continue over the next few years as more as we introduce technology, we make efficient the cost base, higher the reduction of the cost. So the composition of the cost in Italy is quite evident that 70% is personnel and the remaining is 18% IT cost and the rest is general cost.
On the tax receivable project, you have seen 3 days ago, there was the final decree, which defined the perimeter into which AMCO will play and also the condition under which AMCO will have to be given by the local authorities to manage. So they are obliged to move to AMCO if the recoveries are not at a certain level. So it's quite actual effect. So there will be a continuous flow to AMCO and the distribution to the other servicers. So now AMCO is expected to run with public tender between -- in the end of the year. I think we are already set for that. And we will participate to that tender.
Yes. On the question about the other asset liabilities, we'll give you the breakdown. Roughly EUR 10 million IFRS 16. So to pay the rent in the office we operate, including coeo. Then we have roughly EUR 8 million of redundancy costs as part of our plan. We have also the MBO impact, as described before. It is roughly EUR 13 million -- [ EUR 23 million ] -- as decided, we have paid fully. The MBO for '25, we didn't recover fully, the MBO. So this will be unformidable during the year. It happened also last year. Then we have the delay in the recovery on the VAT in Greece is approximately EUR 8.5 million. And we have also paid the transaction cost with the multi net working capital of roughly EUR 7 million. This is how we get to the total change.
About the collection in coeo. As we said before, it's very fast earning portfolio. On average, the recovery of the price paid is in 18 months. Then we show the recovery of 120 months because most of the collection come in in the first 3 year, because then we have the tail that we continue to generate cash.
And this reflects a very important data, which is the 20% that we already recovered as principal on the portfolio investment made in the second Q. So you see the very fast turnover nature of this portfolio only looking at this data.
The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
I have also a few. The first is on guidance and is on free cash flow guidance, whether you might confirm the EUR 90 million free cash flow before dividend and debt repayment for this year? And whether sort of this include -- I do notice that in the slide, there is a reference on some one-off and you put sort of a reference on recurring cash flow. So whether sort of this include or not those items?
And still related to that, I do understand that you signaled how cash flow generative is the coeo portfolio. And at the same time, you highlight the commitment to exit before year-end. I just wonder whether within the guidance, you might clarify what's the contribution of coeo portfolio? And partly related to that, whether sort of initially, what has been sort of the reasoning behind in keeping in a way longer rather than initially signaled to the market?
Second question is sort of on the outlook. On Slide 7, you provided sort of an outlook, which suggest a challenging market backdrop and linked the guidance to an execution in terms of cost efficiency measures. I was just wondering whether out of the outlook that you provided in Italy and Greece, there is anything that we should be aware of in terms of additional cost-cutting measures. I noticed that you put the reference that this is a recurring activity. I just wonder whether there is anything more out of the synergies out of Gardant in Italy, for example, that we might share today.
Yes. On the cash generation, we confirm the guidance of the EUR 90 million free cash flow for the doValue perimeter. And then we have the cash flow coming from coeo, was EUR 30 million minus the financial charge on the bond of roughly EUR 19 million. So we confirm the free cash flow generation and the impact of the portfolio sales. In terms on the portfolio, we highlighted that the value -- including the range between EUR 120 million and EUR 140 million. We are working to try to extrapolate the maximum value of the portfolio sale. This is why we have included now in our simulation on the portfolio sales, the value in the middle is EUR 130 million.
The fact that we continue to own the portfolio, it helps in the cash production. As soon as we continue to hold on the balance sheet, we collect cash flow. So this helps in some way the leverage and -- but not impacting our results in terms of EBITDA, because the component of the portfolio impacting our results are the fees we get from those portfolios.
So maybe to go back to your specific question, the -- keeping or not, it's a question of maximizing value versus the income we get from holding on it. It's not blurring the free cash flow, operating free cash flow generation, which remains separate from the portfolio contribution, still the one which we have portrayed before.
Now in terms of the indication that we gave here, it's -- we are obviously weighting in our guidance the weaker point about the market as well as the other initiatives we are doing. So there are plus and minuses, but still guiding to our final results. We wanted to make you aware, obviously, of what is the market backdrop, but it's our job as managers to obviously weigh these effects to get to the final targets, which we have announced.
In terms of the cost measures, they are not going to change the free cash flow generation that we have indicated. So it's still consistent with the numbers. Any other measure we may want to -- we are planning to execute.
If I may, just sort of a follow-up since I noticed the EUR 40 million one-off in the cash flow sort of picture on Slide 14, and whether sort of this -- since you introduced this concept of recurring, I just wonder whether sort of the EUR 90 million guidance is included or not, this EUR 40 million.
It's a one-off temporary effect on the cash flow. We will say that the VAT has been a delay. So we would assume this VAT now in the first half because of the dispute with the tax authority that went well. We need to wait a few months more to get this cash. But on an ongoing basis, we can recur it. So it's a one-off only for this period, not on a recurring basis. So we need to include this cash in look forward. The same happened for the temporary cash out, but we will be completely absorbed by the end of the year. So the one-off are mainly related to our transaction cost. That has been paid. And the redundancy cost as -- that we have the plan will be -- following year will be lower than the one we have had this year, the previous year.
At least on the VAT, should I expect to be reversed in the second half?
Yes, we will collect during the year to help us to respect our guidance. So this has been only a timing effect. It's not a structural change.
The next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.
I have 3. The first one is on revenue evolution. What dynamics do you expect in second half on the ex-coeo perimeter and so the value stand-alone. Is there anything impacting the comparison base, which we should take into account, for instance, in terms of secondary sales fee last year?
The second one on coeo, we saw gross revenues growth of plus 26% year-on-year in Q1 and plus 25% year-on-year in first half 2026. So the growth rate was essentially confirmed in Q2 as well. Just one clarification. Does the growth rate refer only to the servicing business and let's say, NPL investing business also in Q2?
And you previously said Klarna is down from 50% to around 40% of processed files, if I'm not mistaken. Can you also provide an indication of Klarna's contribution to revenues in first half? And the very last one on coeo back book. Can you give us an indication of how discussions are progressing regarding the structuring of the disposal of the back book and the related forward flow agreement?
And looking at Q2, it seems to me that keeping the back book generates a cash absorption on a run rate basis given that you invest EUR 48 million and collected EUR 31 million. Am I missing something? Or this is something we should also expect in the coming quarters?
Under portfolio, the growth is only considering the revenues and not the portfolio. On the transaction, we are -- the transaction, we have investors that give us a funding offer. We are negotiating to improve the price. We are factoring also the [ receivables ] that will securitize the portfolio and the fund that will buy the notes and then we will send those notes to the investors to identify.
In terms of cash absorption, you are right, coeo is growing, so the volumes are growing. So the clients are grafted to coeo, more receivables. This means that after 4 months coeo has the option to buy higher volumes. So as you have seen in this quarter, we bought [indiscernible] cross-selling the portfolio, we'll transfer -- the funding of those growth to the third-party investors and we will benefit from the servicing fees. So if the portfolio remain on our balance sheet, this will be a structural future. But in the same way, we are improving the company, we are getting more cash.
One other point you raised was on the group of coeo. We confirm that is without the portfolio, so it's only on the servicing side. Around the Klarna contribution in terms of revenue of coeo was around 60% now moving down to around 50%. And in terms of group contribution was around 10%, moving down to around 9%. I think we have addressed the other questions, Davide.
Yes. Maybe I missed the one on the comparison base on second half 2025, if we should take into account some secondary sales fee when making our estimates for second half 2026. I don't know, probably I missed it before.
No, we compare what we have experienced last year in the first quarter, most of the higher volumes will come in the last part of the year. This means we can reasonably expect the secondary sales that will grow mostly in the last part of the year also because of the Katseli law. In Italy, we also expect few transaction sales to grow the secondary sales either impact -- will be an upside to recover fully that Italy, as Manuela stated, this lower performance, coeo will offset this lower performance in Italy.
We said that in the first half of last year, Italy had around EUR 10 million, EUR 11 million of secondary sales. This is because the bank had some back book that wanted to dismiss. Now this amount has reduced. So they will still do in the second part, but less than half of this amount.
[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.
That will be all for today. Thank you all for joining. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.
Dovalue — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Dovalue — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the doValue First Quarter 2026 Financial Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor relations of doValue. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations and M&A at DoValue. I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO; and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our Q1 2026 financial results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights linked to market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for this quarter. We will conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning, everyone. Let me start with the 3 key messages. We confirm our full year guidance of EUR 800 million revenue and EUR 300 million EBITDA pro forma for the acquisition of Coeo with the Q1 in line with our internal phasing. Coeo's Engine of our next growth phase is performing ahead of expectation on every metric with commercial synergies already activated. Commercial momentum across our core servicing business remains strong and increasingly diversified with non-NPL asset classes taking the lead. The year-on-year comparison reflects a very strong Q1 2025 base. To be clear, last year was not supported by nonrecurring items. It benefited from an unusual timing concentration of revenue effects that normally materialize across different quarters of the year.
On a like-for-like basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. This is why our EUR 55 million EBITDA before Coeo is fully consistent with our full year guidance and internal phasing. Historically, the first quarter represents between 15% and 20% of full year EBITDA. And on top of that, we will consolidate the full contribution of Coeo from Q2, a business that is growing at a sustained pace. Taken together, this puts us on the trajectory towards the 2026 combined target. Commercially, the quarter also confirmed the momentum continues. New business reached EUR 1.6 billion, in line with the EUR 8 billion annual target with a healthy contribution from both new mandates and forward flow agreements.
Most importantly, Coeo is performing ahead of expectation on every key metric. In Q1, Coeo revenue grew by 26% year-on-year and EBITDA ex NRI was around EUR 26 million, clean of portfolio collections. From Q2 onwards, Coeo turns to value into broader, faster-growing and [indiscernible] enabled group with the first commercial synergies already started and revenue synergies expected to materialize from third quarter. A quick update on the timing of our Capital Markets Day. Given that Coeo closed in mid-April and is central for the new phase of the group, we won the new business plan to fully reflect Coeo management platform and growth opportunities as well as all the technology levers which will enable our growth and operating efficiencies. We will, therefore, hold the Capital Markets Day in October, presenting an integrated business plan for the combined group from day 1.
On automation, Coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platform in its segment, reporting more than 17% of cases resolved digitally. Finally, our capital structure remains solid. Net leverage was 2.3x at quarter end, on track towards 2.2x by year-end, and Fitch reaffirms our BB rating with stable outlook in April after the Coeo closing. On this basis, the Board has resolved a dividend of EUR 0.09 per share payable next week. Sustainable and recurring cash generation will allow us to approach shareholder remuneration in a consistent and pragmatic way going forward, and we will share more details at the October Capital Markets Day. To sum up, Q1 was in line with our internal phasing. The year-on-year dynamic reflects timing rather than underlying the trends.
Coeo is performing ahead of expectation. And with the closing of Coeo, the group enters a new phase of growth, diversification and value creation. If you follow me on Page 3, let's move to Coeo. Here, the message is very positive. First, one important point. The Q1 numbers you see on this page are not yet consolidated in DoValue reported first quarter results since the transaction closed on April 16 after quarter end. Coeo is the engine of our next phase of growth and will fully consolidate to our P&L from April onwards. And this engine is already running at full steam. Coeo had a very strong first quarter. Revenues were up 26% year-on-year. File intake grew by more than 40%, and the revenue run rate is already well ahead of our expectation. This confirms the quality of the assets that we have acquired and the strength of its digital-first model.
Importantly, this growth is becoming more diversified. Plaza remains a key client, but is now significantly less than half of total file. More than 60% of files are [indiscernible], supported by new clients in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden as well as renewal across existing clients. On automation, Coeo continues to show why it's one of the most advanced platform in its segment. It processes 345,000 high customer interaction in the quarter, up 26% with 70% of activity handled digitally. This is translating into real efficiency with the revenue per quarter up 24% year-on-year. The platform is also expanding geographically through a proven greenfield playbook that requires very limited capital expenditures.
Sweden is a good example. After just 1 year, revenues grew by 77% year-on-year, reaching EUR 6 million in the quarter. Denmark has now been confirmed as an additional market, bringing the doValue Group to 14 countries in 2026. At the same time, Coeo is starting its expansion in Italy and Spain by leveraging the collaboration with doValue. And this is already becoming a group opportunity. We have activated commercial synergies with 3 major clients in Italy and Spain, starting to be managed from June 26, and operational synergies are also underway, including the deployment of Coeo [indiscernible] voice agent and CRM capabilities to DoValue. The takeaway is simple. While reported Q1 does not yet include Coeo, the combined group is already materially stronger. From Q2, we begin consolidating a business that is growing faster than expected, highly automated, increasingly diversified and already generating tangible synergies with DoValue.
Let's now turn to Page 4 and look at why Coeo's growth is structural. Coeo operates in markets that benefit from several long-term growth trends. The first one is the continued expansion of e-commerce across Coeo's core geography, DACH, the Nordics and the U.K. E-commerce is expected to continue growing over the coming years with annual growth rates in the high single digits. The second trend is the increasing penetration of buy-now-pay-later within e-commerce. Even in the markets where buy now, pay later is already well established, penetration remains far from saturated. In other words, most e-commerce transactions are still paid through traditional methods, which means there is still meaningful room for buy-now-pay-later related receivables to grow within Coeo's existing market perimeter. And the third, even larger opportunity is beyond buy-now-pay-later.
Nonbanking receivables, including telco, utilities, insurance, mobility and commercial receivables represent a much broader addressable market. There are high volumes, granular receivables where traditional human servicing model is often too expensive. but where Coeo digital and AI-enabled platform can create attractive economics. This is a key point, Coeo does not need to rely on one single growth driver. It benefits from growth in e-commerce, growth in buy-now-pay-later penetration within e-commerce and growth in broader nonbanking receivable outside buy-now-pay-later. In DACH, the Nordics and the U.K. where Coeo is already operating, this creates a clear and immediate runway. These are markets where the platform is already present, where client relationships are already in place and where there is still significant white space to capture.
Italy, Greece and Spain represent an additional opportunity, but with a different timing. These markets are still much smaller in terms of buy-now-pay-later and digital receivable penetration. So we see them as medium to long-term growth options. The important point is that DoValue already at scale, local presence and institutional relationship in these countries. So as these markets develop, we will be positioned with Coeo's technology and operating model into them. Let's now turn to new business on Page 5. Our commercial engine continues to perform. Year-to-date, new business reached EUR 1.6 billion, in line with the trajectory towards the EUR 8 billion annual target, considering the usual phasing of the year and the pipeline ahead.
This is a solid result, particularly because this year, there wasn't any sale of a large legacy portfolio like the Alphabet won in Grid last year and still delivered EUR 1.6 billion of new business. This is business as usual. The mix is also encouraging. In Italy, we signed EUR 560 million of new servicing mandate with non-NPL asset classes, including performing and UTP exposures, accounting for around 70% of new mandates in Italy. This confirms that diversification is progressing in practice and not only in our strategic narrative.
In the Hellenic region, new mandates amounted to around EUR 300 million with a balanced contribution from Cyprus and Greece. We also completed the first ever sale of reperforming loans in Greece, while retaining the servicing of the portfolio, an important signal that the Greek market is evolving and that reperforming loans are becoming a recognized and investable asset class. Core flow remained solid at around EUR 700 million in the quarter. In Italy, BPER contract flow were up 20% year-on-year despite the fact that the Banca Popolare di Sondrio perimeter will only start contributing after completion of the merger with BPER, which occurred on April 2026.
This means that we expect some contribution from [indiscernible] so flows from Q2 with a full effect from Q3 onwards as well as the stock to be added. Importantly, new inflows were 1.45x collection, supporting GDV stabilization. So the message is simple. Even in a clear banking system and a normalized NPE market, doValue continues to generate new business, replenish its servicing base and expand into more diversified asset classes. Let's now turn to the market backdrop on Page 6. The European NPE market has evolved into a new equilibrium, underpinning more than EUR 2 billion of addressable servicing revenues across our core footprint over '26, '29 period. This is not the same market we had 10 years ago since the peak of the NPL cycle and banks were dealing with very large legacy stock. The market is smaller than the peak NPL market of the past, but more disciplined, more recurring and more sustainable. And this is where the role of the servicer has become systemic. This is visible across our footprint.
In Italy, we see approximately EUR 5 billion to EUR 6 billion of annual NPE disposal from banks, plus EUR 8 billion of secondary disposal, and the country remains #1 destination for European NPL capital allocation in '26. In Spain, primary and secondary disposals together exceed EUR 10 billion annually with the market entering a regulatory transition under the new NPL directive. In Greece, we have around EUR 5 billion annual flows from banks and secondary transactions, supported by GDP growth of around 6.5% and an expanding state receivable stock above EUR 100 billion.
In Germany, the bank NPE stock has grown 62% versus 2019 to around EUR 50 billion in a highly fragmented servicing market with no structured incumbent, a clear opportunity for scale technology-enabled operators like us. The second message is equally important. The opportunity is no longer limited to banking NPEs. Technology and AI are making economically viable to serve adjacent asset classes that were historically less profitable under a traditional human heavy servicing model. This is exactly where the combination with coeo becomes strategically powerful. DoValue brings scale, licenses, institutional relationship and deep servicing expertise. Coeo brings a highly automated AI-enabled platform for small ticket, high-volume receivables. Together, we can address both sides of the market, the new equilibrium banking [indiscernible] and the emerging opportunities in adjacent credit and receivable segments.
Let's now move to Page 7 to strategic execution. Beyond the quarterly numbers, Q1 was an important quarter in terms of delivery against the key strategic priorities of the group. First, on Garden, the integration is now completed. The 7 work streams have been closed. The platform is fully consolidated and synergies are entering full run rate. This is a clear example of execution ahead of plan. This is also visible in the cost base. Staff costs were down 7% year-on-year at group level, confirming that the integration is not only completed from an organizational standpoint, but is also translating into tangible efficiencies. Second, we are preparing for new revenue pools in adjacent markets.
In Italy, the 26 budget law positions AMCO as the central platform for the recovery of local tax receivables and implementing the is expected to define the operating routes and the addressable volumes. This could turn that what has historically been a fragmented and adopt opportunity into a more institutional and transparent market. For doValue, this is exactly the type of opportunity we want to capture in the next phase, although not traditional banking and servicing, but it's very close to our capabilities, data collection, legal processes, operating scale and technology. Third, we continue to strengthen our commercial position.
In Q1, we won a new servicing mandate from a new client, a leading global asset manager, reinforcing our role with top-tier investors and in secondary transactions. At the same time, the first ever Greek reperforming loan sale confirms what new asset classes are becoming investable and that doValue is well positioned to remain the servicer of reference as this market evolves. So the message on execution is clear. Gardant is delivering synergies are ahead of plan. New regulatory opportunities are emerging and institutional client diversification is progressing. The group is moving towards a broader, more fast-growing segment of this market. And it is executing on this road map with very solid balance sheet. I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financial performance of the quarter in more detail.
Thank you, Manuela. Good morning, everyone.
Let's start on Page 9 with the review of Q1 '26 financial results. As Manuela mentioned, the quarter developed in line with our internal phasing of the year. It is worth recalling that Q1 is structurally the smallest quarter in terms of contribution to annual profitability, historically representing around 15% to 20% of full year EBITDA. The year-on-year comparison should be read against a particularly high of Q1 '25 base, which was boosted by an unusual timing concentration of revenue assets spread across the year. On a normalized basis, EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Gross revenue stood at EUR 120 million. The trend reflects the phasing effects I just mentioned, particularly in Italy.
Looking over a 2-year time horizon, gross revenue is up 24% versus Q1 '24, which better reflects the step-up in the platform following the Gardant acquisition. Net revenues was EUR 107 million, also reflecting the same top line dynamics. EBITDA ex NRI was EUR 35 million. The year-on-year trend mirrors gross revenue dynamics, mitigated by continued cost savings across regions. When adjusting for the unusual timing concentration in Q1 '25, the underlying EBITDA performance would have been slightly better year-on-year. EBITDA margin was 29%. This remains above the 26% margin recorded in Q1 '24, while the 26% margin in Q1 '25 reflected an atypically strong first quarter, driven by the same time concentration and accretion in a quarter that is normally low seasonality. Below EBITDA, net financial interest, excluding nonrecurring items, decreased by EUR 3 million year-on-year from EUR 13 million in Q1 '25 to EUR 10 million in Q1 '26. Net income, excluding nonrecurring items, was approximately negative EUR 1 million, reflecting the EBITDA trend, but supported by the above-mentioned improvement in financial charge.
Reported net income was negative EUR 10 million, including around EUR 9 million of below EBITDA nonrecurring items, mainly related to costs associated to new 2031 bond and employee exit costs. To summarize this page, Q1 developed in line with our internal phasing. The year-on-year comparison reflects a not fully represented to Q1 '25 base. Normalized EBITDA is broadly stable and the benefit of our refinancing are already visible below EBITDA. Moving now to Page 10.
We show the regional breakdown of gross revenues. Group gross revenue was EUR 120 million, down 15% year-on-year, reflecting the time effect I just described, which were concentrated mainly in Italy. Italy explained most the decline, reflecting the front-loaded contribution of disposals and value-added services recorded in Q1 last year. The Hellenic region was only marginally down, again reflecting phasing of disposals, while collection in Greece grew 14 percentage year-on-year, in line with expectations. Spain, on the other hand, grew year-on-year with NPL servicing more than offsetting the exit from Santander REO perimeter.
The contribution in absolute terms remains modest, but it confirms that Spanish platform is successfully repositioned towards a more focused NPL servicing model. The revenue mix also continues to diversify. Non-NPL revenues reached 43% of gross revenues in Q1, and this is before the consolidation of coeo from Q2. Outsourcing fees stood at 11.3% of gross revenues, driven by higher value-added service revenues, which are characterized by greater share of outsourcing costs. Moving now on Page 11. Operating expenses decreased by 7% year-on-year from EUR 77 million to EUR 70 million, reflecting continued cost discipline across all regions and the positive run rate effect of delivered synergies.
Staff costs were down by around EUR 4 million year-on-year with all markets contributing through efficiency measures. This confirms that the integration work and the cost actions implemented over the past quarters are translating into visible savings. IT and SG&A costs also decreased by 5% year-on-year, supported by cost initiatives across regions and accelerated synergies in Italy. The overall reduction reflects both structural efficiencies and lower variable costs in a lower revenue quarter with some variable costs expected to come back as activity increases.
Moving on to Page 12. EBITDA reflects the combination of the 2 dynamics we have just discussed. Reported revenues were affected by timing, while cost discipline helped to protect profitability. Group EBITDA, excluding nonrecurring items, was EUR 35 million with 29% margin. Hellenic region, EBITDA was broadly stable year-on-year.
Q1 '25 includes around EUR 3 million of disposal related contribution in Greece, a component that would normally materialize in the second half and the absence of this contribution this quarter was offset by cost efficiencies leading to 47% margin. In Italy, EBITDA was impacted by the same comparison base effect discussed revenues. Spain delivered positive EBITDA already in the first quarter, more than doubling year-on-year, driven by growth in NPL servicing revenues and cost efficiencies. Nonrecurring items at EBITDA level were very muted at a negative EUR 0.1 million in a low seasonality quarter.
On a normalized basis, group EBITDA would have been broadly stable year-on-year. Moving on Page 13, we show the bridge from EBITDA to net income. Below EBITDA dynamics reflect the benefit of the refinancing completed last year with net financial interest improving by EUR 3.4 million year-on-year. Depreciation, amortization and net impairment were broadly stable year-on-year at EUR 17.8 million, while net provision adjustments stood at EUR 4.8 million.
Net financial interest improved by EUR 3.4 million to EUR 15.8 million as Q1 '25 had absorbed the reduction costs on the senior secured notes due in 2026. Taxes decreased, reflecting the lower profit before tax and minorities were also down year-on-year, in line with the quarterly performance. As a result, net income, excluding nonrecurring items, was approximately negative $1 million with the EBITDA decline only partially offset by lower financial charges. Reported net income was negative EUR 10.2 million. The $9 million GAAP versus the adjusted figures reflect 2 distinct items below EBITDA, redundancy cost and the bridge financing interest on the bond issued to fund the coeo acquisition, which was classified as nonrecurring until closing of the transaction on April 16.
Moving to Page 14. Let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics. Q1 cash flow follows the usual seasonal pattern of our business. Q1 is structurally the weakest quarter in terms of cash generation, while the part of the free cash flow is generated in the second half and particularly in Q4.
To give you a sense of the magnitude in 2025 Q4 alone accounted for EUR 54 million of free cash flow out of the EUR 76 million for the full year. In Q1 '26, cash flow from operation was negative EUR 12.8 million, reflecting the lower EBITDA in the quarter and a temporary working capital absorption. Free cash flow was negative EUR 28 million. The EUR 35 million working capital absorption in the quarter is the mirror image of a particularly strong Q4 '25 when collection invoicing dynamics worked in our favor. It also reflects technical timing effects in the invoicing cycle, including legal expenses in Greece. Working capital movements can swing from one quarter to the next, which is why we manage and track this metric on a full year basis.
On that basis, we expect working capital to normalize with a material release over the course of the year. CapEx was EUR 3.9 million, up $1.7 million year-on-year, reflecting front-loaded investments in our digital platform and AI capabilities. This is in line with our internal plan, and we confirm the full year CapEx guidance. To summarize, Q1 cash flow reflects the normal seasonality of our business and the working capital absorption that is counterpart of a particularly strong Q4 '25. The full year trajectory remain on track, and we expect working capital to become a positive contributor as the year progresses. To conclude, let's now move to Page 15 and take a look at our financial structure. Net financial leverage at the end of March stood at 2.3x, reflecting normal Q1 seasonality, and we remain on track towards 2.2x by year-end. The group maintains a solid liquidity buffer of EUR 269 million, made up of EUR 122 million cash on balance sheet and EUR 147 million undrawn revolving credit facilities, providing significant financial flexibility after the coeo closing.
Fitch affirmed our BB rating with stable outlook in April after the coeo closing, confirming the sustainability of the capital structure for the larger group. Our bonds trade at around 5% yield to maturity, among the lowest in the industry, and our average cost of debt stands at 6.3%. The EUR 350 million senior secured notes due 2031 issued in November to finance cooe were released from escrow upon closing on April 16. Looking ahead, we continue to see opportunities to optimize our cost of debt as we deleverage. In short, leverage is seasonal and under control. Liquidity is strong. The rating is confirmed and the capital structure supports next phase of the group. This is all on our side for today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.
[operator instruction]
First question is from Tommaso Nieddu from Kepler Cheuvreux.
2. Question Answer
The first question on my side is on coeo, which you said it did EUR 26 million EBITDA in Q1 alone, which seems a pretty good result.
But my question is how does it compares with the full year 2025 results that you talked about around EUR 55 million to EUR 60 million. So how can we compare it with today's number? And is the portfolio impact is different. Can you help us with some more details on that? The second one is on net working capital. Net working capital absorbed EUR 35 million in Q1, but you confirm the 2026 guidance also on cash flow. So does that mean that you confirm the EUR 15 million positive net working capital contribution for the full year? And when should we see this reversal in terms of phasing? And just a last quick one on portfolio sale on the EUR 100 million portfolio disposal of coeo.
Can you give us an update on timing and on where you are in the process? Also, is it a single block sale or multiple tranches? And what we should expect in terms of expected sale price relative to the book?
Thank you, Thomas.
I will take your first 2 questions. As you will see, very happy with the performance of coeo was very positive this first quarter. coeo grew 27% versus the Q1 2025. But we want to have to expect that Q1 is typically stronger for coeo. Collection related to Black Friday November period. So this tends to front part of the year performance and makes the quarter not fully representative of the rate. But however, if we were to extrapolate the good performance of the Q1 versus the EUR 60 million 2025 reference and align it to conversion would point to around EUR 8 million. But this is just a linear extrapolation of the first quarter, but as I say, the first quarter has been very strong and is usually stronger than the following quarters.
Going to the net working capital I confirm, the absorption is temporary is working capital. The assets are there. Our target is still to recover this amount and also to benefit for the fact that we still have on our balance sheet the backlog coming from the previous year. This is why we guided to have a EUR 50 million positive contribution from net working capital.
This will materialize mainly in the last part of the year.
Regarding portfolio timing, we are aiming for the sale to be completed by June. The approach is to sell it to fund that we are raising because in this way, compared to the sale to third party we would retain also the asset management fees and more control over the flow agreements that comes with the coeo business. So apart from the option to sell to a third party, this is even more efficient from a revenue perspective. And we are in line with the timing vis-a-vis this approach. It will be the old portfolio sold and also the transfer of the flow agreement. The numbers that Davide has mentioned for 2025, the EUR 60 million EBITDA are without already the portfolio sale and is comparable to the EUR 26 million of first Q that we have referenced.
Next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti from Mediobanca.
A few questions from my side. The first is on the trend of the group excluding coeo.
So is it possible to recover a positive growth rate for the group stand-alone? I mean you have confirmed the guidance, including coeo. Coeo is doing better. So the question is, do you expect to recover an EBITDA of around EUR 240 million that was the original plan for the stand-alone group? And in particular, do you see a positive growth in EBITDA in Italy after the first quarter?
Then if you could comment on shareholders' remuneration. In the past, the possibility of making a buyback has been mentioned. So do you confirm this possibility? And finally, if you could comment if it is possible on the move that, your major shareholder has made on Axactor.
So if there is any comments that you can share with us on this point?
Thank you, Simonetta. I'll take your first question, and then Manuela will take the remaining one. So first, our official guidance is and will remain EUR 300 million pro forma with coeo. That is the only number the company is guiding to -- on the legacy business, Q1 was softer than we would have liked, but it would not be serious at this time to revisit our full year guidance after a single quarter, especially one with limited predictive value for the balance of the year. So we will be very cautious. And we can't rule out at this time over performance in the coming months. So we can rule out that, and there is still a chance that we will meet the EUR 240 million target. Finally, and most importantly, the strong performance of coeo since closing significantly derisk our pro forma EUR 300 million target.
So our confidence in the guidance we have is reinforced right now. So you will remember the first quarter of 2025, which was really strong, but we didn't revisit the guidance at that time. And because it's just a quarter, it's not -- it's a less significant one. So let's wait for the rest of the year to see how this will develop. And we think that nowadays, the most important data that you should take on is that the EUR 300 million guidance is derisked overall. I'll let Manuela answer the remaining questions.
Yes. On the shareholder remuneration, we confirm the idea of activating a buyback in the second part of the year if the cash performance is in line with our expectation. We have also several other catalysts that will materialize in the next 3, 4 months, which we are working on, which supports our full year guidance. On the last point, I think the fortress move is driven by a trend in the sector.
You might have observed that some of the players are now acting later vis-a-vis what we have done 2 years ago of a rights issue to strengthen the capital structure. We did it in the context of an acquisition. They are doing it only for balance sheet repair because both Axactor and also Intrum have restructured the debt 2 years ago and are coming with new maturity next year that they realized they couldn't afford. So it was a timing very intervention of corporate that is entering at a very weak point in the story of Axactor to get control with little money to be fair. The other point is where is the trend of the sector. There has been very positive results on the small ticket side for the purchasers if you look to us and similar players. So the calendar provisioning is kicking in.
And this is driving an expectation of a material increase in the small ticket, both corporate and bank. And this is also why we have repositioned ahead of time in that already last year with the acquisition of coeo. And the market trends in terms of results of these companies as well as the balance sheet need of players like Axactor and Intrum to create capacity to purchase more is an indicator of that.
So there is a growth in that segment that they will capture through the purchase, and we will capture through the servicing as well as the fund that we are raising. I hope it explains the strategic angle.
Next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco from Intermonte.
The first one is still on free cash flow because you confirmed the full year guidance also in terms of free cash flow. But if I understand correctly, this guidance includes pro forma coeo contribution. So I was wondering if you could help us understand how cash generation contribution should be split between legacy doValue perimeter and coeo. The second question is on new business because new business intake EUR 1.6 billion in first quarter with nearly half of new mandates related to non-NPL products. So I was wondering if you could provide some color on the current pipeline for the remaining 2026, so both in terms of volumes and mix and whether the pipeline is increasingly skewed towards UTP performing to performing loans and so on.
I will take your first question on cash flow. Just to clarify, the EUR 90 million guidance for the stand-alone cash flow value before coeo but the relief we have comes from the contribution of coeo which includes the positive contribution from [indiscernible] would be up to EUR 90 million to EUR 100 million, if we exclude [indiscernible]. If we deduct the EUR 24 million of the cost we are going to pay these months.
On the new business intake, you are right that in the first Q, apart from the flow that pretty much the EUR 700 million split between 80% NPL and 20% UTP coming from Eurobank and from BPER. The rest was -- the vast majority was more on the UTP and performing side. Actually, performing was the vast majority because of the Greek transaction and also the Italian transaction with an international fund. How we see the business in the rest of the year?
Probably apart from the flow that will remain with this mix, there is going to be a higher percentage, probably 70% to 80% on the UTP and performing side. And then on the small ticket that relates mostly to the business, but also to the corporate receivables -- it's with the incoming presence of coeo in Italy, in Spain and in Greece in the 4Q and also the pilots that we are doing in Greece with the 3 utilities, this will be the large driver of the growth in the last part of the year. To be clear that there's not a question of 1 billion of GBV, but even given the profitability and the type of collection is more around the number of files that you manage that is typical of the business rather than the Euro million amount.
But overall, the mix is pretty much skewed towards the performing for the traditional part and for the utilities and e-commerce for the new part.
Next question is from Davide Giuliano, Equita.
I have 2. The first one is on the NPE outlook and forward flow contracts. You reported inflows from forward flow contracts of EUR 700 million this quarter compared to EUR 1.1 billion in first Q 2025. Can you provide more details on the evolution of the NPE market? If are you seeing a reduction in the generation of NPEs by banks compared to last year? And how much of this difference is due to the loss of the UniCredit contract? And the second one, just a quick update on fiscal credit servicing.
Can you provide some details on the more than EUR 250 million of potential revenues from servicing of fiscal credits. Do you include tax credits from the central government as well as local ones in this estimate? And what are your expectation in terms of market share? And just if there are any updates on acquiring the license needed to operate in this segment?
The difference between the 1.1 and numbers of this year is 80% is driven by UniCredit and the remaining by a delayed in coming on the Santander new contracts of the new flows. As you know, we have given back at the end of the quarter part of the REO business, and we are getting the new in exchange NPL flow. So this will go up after clean up of the UniCredit effect. But from the second Q, we will also get the flows, which will add to the picture. And as a data point, we mentioned that on the dealer side, we have experienced a 20% growth of the flows quarter-on-quarter. On the tax credit, we have not included them in our budget despite we are working on it.
Because the timing of the government decision progress. As you know, in March, they were supposed to finalize all the new regulation. They are taking a bit more time. But the indication is clear in the public documents that AMCO will distribute this value across services. Our fair market share with AMCO is around 20%, 25% in general. Clearly, here is very much driven also by the new license. The understanding is that it's probably more -- it's better, it's more attuned to buy the license rather than ask for a new one because it requires the timing which is longer. And we would like to be ready.
We are with the system, but to be ready with the license as soon as possible. So we are working on that point with a few options. In terms of allocation to servicer, clearly AMCO, I think we will know only when the allocation will be made to them, which is in the last part of the year.
The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
The first is just a clarification more on the reasoning why you decided to move forward the Capital Market Day in October. I do understand that you will be able to get more to talk about sort of coeo performance, though at the same time, you highlight how strong it's been so far performance this year and you also added a few more highlights on the business on the market that they are facing.
I just wonder whether you might confirm that given the potential M&A target you might have going forward, is anything sort of instead that might suggest that you will come up with a more enlarged perimeter by the time you will present the next 3 years plan. This is the first question.
The second question is more on the cash flow guidance for this year.
I just wonder whether you might give us a little more color in terms of geography contributions where we should expect the most on this EUR 90 million to come from? And the last question is just on Slide 6. And since I recall you put a slide in an earlier presentation on the pipeline. I just wonder whether these numbers might reconcile with the EUR 50 billion pipeline that you put in early presentation.
Yes, I will take your question. Now the timing of the buyback is not driven by M&A consideration because we have said that we have focused this year on the integration of coeo starting the revenue opportunities, which are always now less controllable than the cost ones that we did for Gardant that is now fully completed. And on the deleveraging because as part of the M&A, we are selling the EUR 100 million portfolio that we still have to complete. So our focus will be on the delivery this year and on the full exploitation of the coeo opportunity within our business plan. Consider that we have been able to work on the business plan with coeo for technical reasons, i.e., you cannot access that type of information only after closing that has happened in the second part of April. So on the other leg is the operating efficiencies. We want to be driving this sector by technology. And it's not just a dream, it's the need of the sector to reinvent itself. And therefore, we are working on a very detailed plan and action on the AI and to enable new revenues, but more to rethink about the processes and the way we do our business to extract as much cost efficiencies and productivity we can.
So we want to lay that in a very clear manner in our plan. On the cash flow guidance, the main contributor will be Greece because there is higher stock of working capital there vis-a-vis the other countries. The other countries don't have that stock accumulated and therefore, will be the normal conversion of revenues to credits. On the pipeline, we try to give a different picture of it. So it's consistent with the old one. It might be even larger, including coeo, but we wanted to give more data point given that we are progressing obviously with the Capital Markets Day, and we have done a thorough analysis of the future trajectory of the market in the next 3 to 5 years. So it was just a different way to show you the debt of the market.
[operator instructions]
There are no more questions registered. Sorry, we have one more question from Simonetta Chiriotti, Mediabanca.
Is it possible to have an update on Germany and in particular on the activity in the NPL segment in that market that was flagged in the previous call as an important opportunity. And second question, I mean, we spoke of 2026 guidance on a shorter term, is it possible to have some early guidance on the second quarter of the year?
Sima, we didn't understand the first one, the voice was not very clear. Can you repeat?
Yes. On Germany, Yes, it's possible to have an update on that market for your traditional activity?
Yes. definitely there, we have discussed it multiple times, so we didn't repeat ourselves, but we have set up a division. We have done the hirings. We have the new exposures for the NPE business, and we are managing now [indiscernible] banks. And we just bid for another RFP for a larger bank, one of the top 2 private banks in the market. And we expect another one in the last part of the year. So that division is up and running.
And in the 26% upside of coeo, there is also that performance included for the first client that started end of last year.
Okay. And on the second quarter performance, is it possible to have some anticipation already?
It is not common practice for the company to provide guidance on the sequential quarter. So we are still developing this quarter. It is developing. And as usual, the company will interact with markets in the due course.
There are no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you, thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.
Dovalue — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Dovalue — 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the doValue Preliminary Full Year 2025 Financial Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations at doValue. I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO; and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our preliminary full year 2025 results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends.
Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for the period. We'll conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning, everyone. Let me start clearly and concisely - we delivered. We met our 2025 business plan targets for both cash flow and EBITDA, our seventh consecutive year of delivery on the 3-year business plan, and we reached several milestones even earlier than planned. And we achieved this in a particularly challenging phase of our industry while also executing 2 major M&A transactions that will shape the future of our company.
Before walking you through the results, which together presented solid and consistent picture, I want to thank all the people at doValue. Their commitment and hard work have enabled us to accomplish what many in the market doubted would be possible. Commercial momentum remains strong with new business intake closing at roughly EUR 15 billion, 1.8x the annual business plan target and a pipeline that continues to support the visibility into 2026.
Profitability strengthened with EBITDA ex NRI reaching a record EUR 217 million and margin at 37%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year. The near completion of the Gardant integration is now contributing to improved efficiencies across the platform, setting the strong foundation for the next year. Cash generation was also very strong with free cash flow at EUR 76 million, well above guidance. These results supported both deleveraging and the return to dividend payment in accordance with dividend policy.
On a recurring basis, free cash flow was EUR 93 million, bridging the gap towards the 2026 EUR 90 million target. Net leverage stood at 2x at year-end, fully in line with guidance, even after accounting for extraordinary payouts linked to the M&A activities, such as EUR 6 million cash out for Alba Leasing, which was not contemplated when the guidance was announced.
As for coeo, I know that just like us, you are eager to see the performance reflected in our numbers. The transaction is expected to close shortly with no execution issues. Coeo delivered another year of strong double-digit organic growth with files intake up 23% in '25 and well ahead of our buyer case but also seller case.
Altogether, we entered '26 with a stronger business, a clearer trajectory and the foundation to deliver our next set of targets, including coeo. If you follow me on Page 3, let me start from the bigger picture. DoValue today plays a system-level role in Europe's financial stability. We operate at a scale that very few players in Europe can match, managing over 4.3 million position across individuals and businesses, all of this before coeo, which will more than double the number of data points with a broader scope.
This gives us one of the largest behavioral and credit database in the market, an asset that allow us to anticipate patterns, tailor strategies and support the functioning of the financial system with evidence-based decision-making. This is the context in which our portfolio proves sustainable across cycles.
It is diversified by design and managed by specialized professionals operating in areas where AI alone is not enough. First, diversification. Our portfolio is no longer a single asset NPL story. Alongside NPLs, we manage a large UTP perimeter, about 1 million positions, where we act as a structuring partner to protect value early. And we are developing a growing reperforming base currently of 400,000 positions that extracts value from proactive debt management.
Second, runway and capacity. Look at '25 impact indicators at the bottom, 58,000 positions recovered from individuals, 21,000 from businesses, 12,000 positions restructured and 3,000 [ reperforming ] positions collected. All these figures show a substantial annual throughput. But when you said that against the overall stock of 4.3 million outstanding positions, it's clear there is ample embedded opportunity in the existing book, a lot still to convert, which underpins visibility for the coming years.
Third, AI resilience. 88% of our portfolio is made up by loans above EUR 50,000, typically complex, bespoke and legal intensive. Here, AI augments our execution capabilities, but outcomes are driven by highly specialized asset managers who cannot be replaced by AI-only models, also due to the proprietary nature of our data set, which encompass decades of data and is not available to third-party models.
In short, our scale, our dataset and the complexity we manage make doValue one of the few players that truly matter for Europe's financial stability, and they give us a long predictable and AI resilient path of value creation. With that foundation, let me turn to the '25 new business inflow on Page 4.
In '25 GBV from new business reached almost EUR 15 billion, 1.8x our initial business plan targets, confirming the strength of our commercial engine. New Mandates continued to grow in the fourth quarter by nearly EUR 1 billion, including around EUR 600 million from [ Banco ] Project in Italy and EUR 200 million from the new contribution fund launched in December by doValue through its asset management platform focused on state guaranteed loans.
Spain also added EUR 200 million in the quarter with mandates from a major banking institution. We also saw sustained forward flow from existing customers, which totaled EUR 4.3 billion for the year, covering around 80% of collections.
This performance was mainly driven by solid contribution across countries with continued acceleration in flows from Santander in Spain, up 60% year-on-year, which has been recently renewed for an additional year without any front payment. If we take a step back, the scale of what we have achieved over the past 2 years becomes even clearer. While bank boost NPE ratios and cost of risk at historical lows, we secured EUR 24 billion of cumulative new business, nearly EUR 11 billion of which from banks. This is not just commercial success. It's a tangible demonstration of the systemic role of our industry in Europe's financial ecosystem.
Banks, funds and institutions rely on our and our competitor platform through the cycle, and this is precisely what underpins the long-term sustainability of our business.
Let's now turn to Page 5. Here, we outlined our pipeline, already reflecting the broader scope and diversification of the group after the coeo acquisition. What you see on this page is not just the net flows of inflows -- the net wave of inflows, but the shape of a business that is becoming structurally wider, more diversified and more balanced across products and geographies.
The NPE pipeline is large and diversified. This pipeline amounts to EUR 50 billion, well distributed across countries and asset classes with almost 1/4 being UTP. I would like to take a moment to clarify the tax credit opportunity in Italy. As part of the '26 budget law, the government has introduced a new framework to recover unpaid tax and property revenues from local authorities with AMCO pointed to orchestrate the collection efforts. A decree expected in March will define the operational parameters, including the potential outsourcing to license operator, a key enabling step for volumes to flow.
We are currently working on obtaining a license in order to be among the selected subservicers. For now, the initial stock identified as recovered amounts to roughly EUR 20 billion, and we are prudently including EUR 4 billion of what in our pipeline as the share realistically attainable by the value. But it's important to be clear, these figures represent only the first phase of the opportunity, specifically the local authority receivables that were already assigned to the [ Agencias delle Entrate ].
If the model proves effective and scalable, the pipeline would expand materially, potentially including local authority receivables currently handled by smaller local operators, central government receivables today managed exclusively by [ Agencias delle Entrate ]. Parallelly, on the coeo side, the pipeline is extremely strong with potential for additional annual revenue of over EUR 250 million. This means that with the current dip in the market, coeo could effectively more than double its annual revenue and largely diversified customer base. Indeed, 2/3 of the pipeline comes from sector beyond e-commerce, including telcos, insurance and mobility.
All this comes from opportunities in markets where coeo is currently present. Once we look at expanding coeo into doValue, this opportunity further expands. We included a deep dive for Italy and Spain, and you can see there are plenty of sectors with small ticket receivables that coeo could tap with its highly automated digital recovery processes.
Let's now turn to Page 6. Here, we have shown the market backdrop. Insolvency have been rising across the EU with bankruptcy declaration up 18% year-on-year in '24 and the '25 run rate reaching the highest level since '19. In Q4 '25, seasonally adjusted declaration were once again up quarter-on-quarter, underscoring that the trends remain live.
By country, the picture is fully designed with what to be observed on the ground. Greece recorded an average plus 20% quarterly increase through 2025. Italy is expected to exceed the pre-pandemic insolvency levels. Germany started its upswing later, but is expected to continue. And Spain showed insolvency levels contained but higher versus 10 years ago across most markets.
Now an important point of context. Our business plan '24-'26 was built without assuming any macroeconomic shock or deterioration. Despite that, we have delivered new business significantly above expectation in both '24 and '25, even while banks were reporting historically low new NPE ratios and cost of risk. What this means is that in an already benign credit environment, doValue still capture strong inflows and commercial traction. And if the current insolvency trend persists or broadens, it represents potential upside versus the intake assumed in our plan with the usual time lag between filing and onboarding and with the same discipline on mix and pricing, guiding what we choose to service.
Now on to a more cheerful note, let's move to Page 7 for an update on coeo. '25 has been another really strong year for them despite management being largely involved with a long and complex sales process to doValue. Coeo grew New Files by 23% to 9.6 million files, reflecting both in-market client growth, notably in telco across Germany, Sweden and the U.K. and client-driven expansion into 3 new markets: Switzerland, Norway, Finland without M&A.
On the digital engagement and service quality, coeo is running AI-enabled interaction across Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Norway, delivering over 1 million customer interaction completely digital whilst maintaining excellent customer satisfaction metrics. On the financial side, coeo delivered around EUR 60 million EBITDA in 2025, excluding EBITDA coming from the hybrid model with a 35% increase in portfolio investments, which fuel future collection revenue growth.
It's important to note that this 35% increase in portfolio investment was entirely funded through the strong cash generation of the business, evidence of the sustainability of the hybrid model.
Moving to Page 8. We have initially hoped to close the coeo transaction by January. The closing is still pending without any issues. I'd like to give you some color on the process. The transaction is clearance by 4 major authorities in several countries where coeo operates. We are awaiting clearance from just one last authority in Germany. The time line was extended due to the document collection and examination requirements across multiple jurisdictions and counterparts and administrative multiparty review that simply taken longer than anticipated.
Importantly, there has been no change to the perimeter on terms agreed, and we remain fully engaged with the authority on the remaining steps. From an execution readiness standpoint, we are prepared to move quickly once clearance arrives. We have already agreed the integration plan structured along 7 work streams; governance, finance, HR, IT, procurement, AI and business expansion with clear owners detailed checklist and no disruption expected for clients.
The AI work stream is set to make coeo, the group AI app for small tickets, digital first growth while presenting our high-touch approach on complex exposures. We will close promptly upon receipt of the final clearance and are operationally ready to integrate from day 1.
First, we operate in 2 very different arenas. Now you can see it on Page 9. Here, we want to comment upon the recent noise about what the AI winners and loser will be, and we want to be very concrete about how AI touches our business. On the one hand, we manage mid-large secured loans. Our [ core ] book with an average ticket of around EUR 70,000, where AI mainly improves cost efficiency and workflow orchestration, but outcomes still require experienced asset managers.
Here, AI is an enabler with limited impact on economics, not a substitute for human expertise. On small and secured tickets, AI matters more because full automation is needed to make unit economic work. That is exactly why we choose to enter this segment through coeo, a digital AI-driven platform built for scale. In practice, we are already using AI where it moves the needle. Digital debtor portals and channels are live in Greece, about 30% of 0 to 90 days collection are handled digitally.
We are also using modeling and advanced analytics for segmentation and propensity to pay, virtual agents to support our teams on [indiscernible] responses and call wrap-ups and document analytics to extract facts from judicial and notarial files. The impact is visible. With the initial adoption of the digital platform in Greece, small ticket EBITDA margin increased from roughly 53% to 89%, a step change that illustrates how automation can lower the cost to collect without compromising governance.
It's equally important to explain why we are structurally protected as AI adoption accelerates in 3 ways. First, regulation. Our activities require licenses and human oversight. AI cannot hold a servicing license or assume legal responsibility under certain regulation. So human-in-the-loop is mandatory in our markets.
Second, data. AI needs domain-specific training data. DoValue owns one of the Southern most -- Europe's most expensive proprietary credit recovery databases, which is private and not available to third-party models.
Third, complexity. Corporate and secured recoveries are bespoke and legal intensive. Local courts filing, multiparty negotiations are at the heart of our business. Automation can manage low-value, high-volume cases. Experts drive outcomes on complex scales.
Our strategy is clear: automate at scale where automation wins small ticket by coeo and augment human expertise where value is created. Secured and complex claims add to value, all under a road map with a clear roadway. Regulation, data and complexity will continue to be durable moves as AI promises.
Let's now turn to Page 10 with an overview on the German market, which will become very important for us. Germany is now the #2 NPL market in Europe by stock held on bank's balance sheet at EUR 46 billion, up 24% versus 2019 and 21% larger than the current Italian size.
Importantly, this EUR 46 billion figure covers banks only. It excludes position held by investors, fintechs and debt purchasers and receivable from nonfinancial entities served by coeo. So the true addressable market is materially larger than on balance sheet number.
Yes, the servicing market is underdeveloped. It's highly fragmented with servicers typically specialized by client segments and not meaningfully consolidation to date, leading limited scale platform and clear scope for a consolidator to bring multi-client, multiproduct capabilities.
On execution, the regulatory bar is also a differentiator. Since '24, Germany requires a CSI license to operate in credit servicing. We have secured the license, established doValue Germany, onboarded project staff and identified key hirings, completed the first market analysis, upgraded system to run NPL workflows and onboarded an initial client, aiming to make profits already in '27.
All these are concrete tangible steps and not simple intention. Strategically, this expansion is the first synergy of the coeo acquisition. Germany is coeo largest market. Sweden ahead of closing. We are not standstill. We are leveraging coeo footprint and digital stack to accelerate entry, demonstrating that we are proactive and already putting the model in motion to scale quickly once consolidation is completed.
To sum up, a large and growing German NPL pool plus the fragmented servicing landscape creates room for a sizable opportunity. We are in markets licenses and building capacity using the coeo's first synergy of the deal to ensure that once consolidation is completed, we can scale delivery from day 1.
Before I hand over to Davide to walk you through the financials, let's turn to Page 11 and look at the progress made so far on the business plan horizon. This is our second consecutive year of delivering this guidance, and we are ahead on the 2024-'26 business plan. Cumulatively, we have already reached the full 3-year new business target in just 2 years, more than EUR 24 billion of GBV from new business in '24 and '25 only.
Engine 2 of growth is delivering. The digital platform is live in all countries. Our alternative asset management company is above EUR 1 million of fee-generating AUM with 2 new funds launched in recent months.
FinThesis has already intermediated 2,000 mortgage applications and our advisory unit continues to expand. With the consolidation of coeo, Engine 2 will become the group main business and represent the majority of group revenue from day 1, not over time, shifting the group revenue mix as outlined at the Capital Markets Day.
On capital structure, we delivered as well. We refinanced the '25-'26 bonds by summer '25. And in October '25, issued the 350 2031 notes at a coupon 160 bps lower than the February issuance despite the longer maturity. Our bonds trade at a yield to maturity around -- below 5%, sorry; the lowest in the industry, and we still see room to optimize interest costs through further refinancing.
Finally, financial performance is in line with guidance. GBV of EUR 136 billion, EBITDA of EUR 217 million ex-NRI, free cash flow of EUR 76 million, net leverage of 2x. So overall, we are delivering what we said. We are ahead on the transformation, and we are doing it with a capital structure and the financial profile that supports the next phase.
Actually, we didn't just deliver on the numbers, we overdelivered on our strategic position. We expanded our geographical footprint, strengthened our AI capabilities and broadened our product scope with an acquisition that will open a new chapter for doValue at the next Capital Markets Day. And we did all this while keeping leverage in check and delivering on every stand-alone target. I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financial results in more detail.
Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by saying that 2025 was a year of tangible progress and strong financial execution as is clear from the summary of our preliminary full year results on Page 13. 2025 stands out as a year where we delivered strong results and materially enhanced profitability with double-digit increases in both revenues and EBITDA.
Gross revenue in 2025 was EUR 580 million, showing a solid double-digit growth of 21.1% versus the prior year. Despite temporary timing effects related to the ramp-up of the collection process on the new Greek portfolios, the underlying momentum remained strong with growth sustained by non-NPL revenue, which continue to expand their contribution to the group's mix as indicated in our plan.
Net revenue rose to EUR 524 million, mirroring the gross revenue growth in the presence of a stable impact of outsourcing costs year-over-year. EBITDA ex-NRI reached EUR 217 million, up 31.8% versus 2024. Synergies expected for the Gardant acquisition are playing out exactly as expected in Italy with integration now largely completed.
Cost discipline across the other regions continue to support high margin, up by 3 percentage points from the 2024 level. Net income ex NRI increased to EUR 25 million, more than tripling from EUR 7 million in 2024 despite higher financial costs and higher D&A following the consolidation of the Gardant perimeter. This is fully consistent with our M&A philosophy. Every transaction must be EPS accretive, and the performance we are showing confirms exactly that. The coeo acquisition will show in our figures in 2026, and it will be a synergy.
Moving now to Page 14, we can find breakdown of gross revenue per region. At group level, gross revenue grew by 21.1% year-on-year, driven by continued growth in non-NPL revenues, both UTP and recurring with [indiscernible]. Non-NPL revenue represents now 36% of gross revenues, up 1 percentage point from 2024, in line with the group strategy shift towards higher growth, lower volatility segments.
This will expand further following the completion of the coeo acquisition. In the Hellenic region, as mentioned, revenues in Q4 accelerated due to timing effect in the ramp-up of new portfolios, which we expect to contribute fully to revenue in 2026. Other than that, the regions continue to show sustainable activity across all of the business segments with healthy collections underpinned by different markets.
In Italy, gross revenue grew 61% year-on-year, supported by the combined contribution of Gardant and the strong growth in non-NPL revenue, which will continue to expand even excluding Gardant. It is important to highlight that even on a stand-alone basis, both doValue and Gardant recorded low single-digit growth, confirming that the stabilization of GBV and the increasing weight of non-NPL revenues are already shaping a new positive growing dynamic even in a mature markets such as Italy.
In Spain, revenue declined EUR 41 million as weakness in REO was mitigated by circa 60% growth in UTP servicing. Revenue in the future will be driven by new business intake in a still fragmented market.
On Page 15, you can see the result of the continuous cost discipline efforts at the group level and of the successful integration of Gardant, delivering all the synergies promised 1 year ago. In 2025, operating costs increased only by 14.6% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points less than revenues despite the inclusion of the cost base of Gardant. More in detail, HR costs grew 17.3%, leading to an incidence on revenues lower by more than 130 basis points, mainly thanks to effective release of synergies in Italy as well as cost savings across all geographies.
As for IT, Real Estate, SG&A expenses, we recorded an increase of only EUR 42 million with the incidence on revenues falling 170 basis points as the group listed savings in all markets.
On Page 16, we find by country details of EBITDA ex-NRI, which reached EUR 217 million at group level, up by 31.8% year-over-year and landing at upper end of our guidance for 2025. In Hellenic region, EBITDA ex NRI reached EUR 121.4 million with a reduction versus 2024 that mirrors the revenue dynamics, although partially mitigated by cost discipline measures. The region continued to be a key profitability driver for the group, contributing 56% of total EBITDA ex NRI with a solid 51% margin.
In Italy, EBITDA increased 50% to the contribution of Gardant as well as the effective release of synergies. Indeed, the Gardant integration has been progressing really well, and the synergies are evident. In Italy, the EBITDA margin increased by 13 percentage points year-on-year with more value extracted from the acquisition than originally expected. This remarkable results demonstrate the high value-creating nature of our M&A activities.
In Spain, we achieved a positive EBITDA as cost savings contributed to offset negative trends observed in REO. Nonrecurring items were limited to negative EUR 8 million, originating mainly from consultancy costs related to the coeo acquisition and cost to release Gardant synergies.
Moving to Page 17. We show very positive dynamics in net income evolution, which, excluding nonrecurring items, more than tripled to EUR 25 million and increased by EUR 19 million compared to 2024. Analyzing the most impactful items between EBITDA and net income, depreciation and amortization and net impairment on PPE & intangible increased EUR 36 million year-over-year.
The increase versus last year is mainly related to incremental D&A from Gardant and its PPA. Net financial interest and commission were higher, reflecting the normal impact of the larger gross debt following recent M&A activities. This includes the term loan paid in 2024 to fund the Gardant acquisition, currently circa EUR 300 million outstanding and amortizing EUR 53 million per annum, EUR 300 million bond due 2030 issued in February and EUR 350 million bond due 2031 issued in November and currently held in escrow until closing of the coeo transaction.
Income tax decreased on a recurring basis by 17% year-on-year, while reported tax increased due to adverse comparison effect related to an extraordinary EUR 20 million positive effect in 2024 from a tax claim won in Spain.
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest increased EUR 6 million in 2025 to EUR 18.1 1million due to Gardant minorities.
Nonrecurring items for the period amounted to EUR 34 million, up by EUR 29 million, mainly due to the aforementioned EUR 20 million positive effect from the tax claim in Spain related to 2024 and the nonrecurring financial costs related to the 2 recent bond issuance and early redemption of the '26 bonds.
As a result, net income, excluding nonrecurring income items, reached EUR 25.3 million, up by EUR 19 million paving the way for dividend payout in line with our dividend policy.
Moving to Page 18. Let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics, which, as anticipated in our plan, improved significantly. We are pleased to see the group being back to its previous high cash generation levels with cash flow from operations up EUR 99 million to EUR 181 million in the full year, thanks to positive EBITDA contribution and working capital dynamics and tighter control over the change in other asset and liabilities.
Capital expenditure increased by EUR 11 million versus last year, higher than previously guided due to AI and automation initiatives to unlock efficiencies, investment in data strategy, investment to strengthening the group's cybersecurity perimeter as well as investments linked to the Gardant integration, namely the unification of system across the company.
Net working capital released EUR 32 million, mainly linked to the recovery of past invoices in Greece and some nonrecurring expenses related to the coeo, which will be paid on closing. Lease payments under IFRS 16 amounted to EUR 17 million, including Gardant perimeter, in line with previous messaging.
Payment for redundancy were EUR 11 million, slightly down versus 2024 as the group successfully limited redundancy by relocating personnel across the wider doValue Gardant perimeter, limiting the use of external asset managers. Other change in other asset and liabilities reflect the expected reversal of the MBO effect and include a positive effect related to the coeo transaction which will be reversed in 2026.
Minorities were unchanged versus 9 months results as expected. Investments in equity and financial assets accounted for EUR 18 million, mainly from nonrecurring payments for the earnout in Greece and investment in Alba Leasing.
Taking all this into account, free cash flow before debt repayment or dividend landed at EUR 76 million, above our EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million guidance range. On a recurring basis, excluding M&A-related effects such as earn-out for doValue Greece, Alba Leasing investment free cash flow for debt repayment would have been EUR 93 million, bringing the gap towards the 2026 free cash flow guidance.
Based on the results achieved, doValue currently trades at a free cash flow yield of around 18% or 21% on a recurring basis.
To conclude, let's now move on Page 19 and take a look at our financial structure. Net financial leverage at the end of December stood at 2x, down from the 2.4x level at December 2024, reaching the target for the 2025 despite an additional extraordinary M&A related to Alba Leasing. Even after the EUR 53 million term loan repayment, the group maintained a solid liquidity buffer of EUR 277 million, made up of EUR 145 million cash on balance sheet and EUR 152 million undrawn revolving credit facility, including a EUR 20 million new facility agreed in January '26, which remains completely undrawn.
Overall, we closed the year with a solid capital structure, BB credit rating, strong performance in the bond market with our bonds trading at the lowest yield in the industry, below 5% and no refinancing needs until 2030, given the recent November issuance to finance the acquisition currently held in escrow.
As we continue on our delevering path, we also see further opportunities to optimize our cost of debt by refinancing instruments issued at higher coupon. Importantly, this structure gives us significant flexibility in future capital allocation and shareholder remuneration; topics that will be addressed in detail as part of the next Capital Market Day. This is all our side for today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Tommaso Nieddu of Kepler Cheuvreux.
2. Question Answer
I have a few. The first one on free cash flow, which was clearly the main positive surprise. On working capital, the EUR 32 million release in 2025 was, I believe, materially ahead of your prior guidance and our expectation. Can you help us understand with more details what structurally changed there and also beyond the EUR 5 million temporary benefit from coeo? And given the 2025 net working capital release, as we think about 2026, should we assume a broadly neutral working capital? Or do you see scope for further structural release?
The second question is on dividends. While you reiterated that the proposal will be in line with policy, could you give us more clarity on how you think about positioning within the 50% to 70% payout range? And for now, the last one on Gardant. You originally guided for EUR 5 million of synergies in 2025 and EUR 15 million at a full run rate. My question is, could you quantify how much has been realized to date and whether there is any incremental upside beyond the EUR 15 million target?
Tommaso, I will take your first question. Free cash flow, EUR 32 billion were coming as anticipated mainly from Greece as we guided EUR 15 million to EUR 20 million, the higher level of our guidance. Then we have also a contribution, as I was saying, from coeo, we have roughly EUR 3 million that has been included in the reported EBITDA that will be paid in 2026 at closing.
And then we have also positive impact from Italy, both on working capital and also because we were able to use our tax credit that has been transformed in tax credit has been used to pay related to the working capital. For '26, we still expect a positive contribution from working capital, we still need to recover advanced payment we made in Greece. So we would expect still a double-digit contribution of working capital in 2026.
On the dividend front, we will propose to be on the high end of our guidance in terms of percentage, probably rounding the numbers up. On the Gardant integration, about 2025, we closed between actual synergies of around EUR 9 million to EUR 10 million. We confirm still the run rate of EUR 15 million, hoping to do better. All the actions have been put in place. The technical aspects to be executed will complete by June. So by June, everything is really closed. And the team is running ahead of guidance on the cost efficiency side.
The next question is from Antonio Gianfrancesco of Intermonte.
Congratulations for these set of results. I have 2 questions. The first one is on new business because new business intake reached EUR 14.5 billion in 2025, exceeding already the cumulative business plan target, a very good figure. But I would be -- it would be useful to better understand your expectation for inflows in 2026, both in terms of volume and product mix and how confident you are in maintaining this commercial momentum in a market where NPE inflows remaining for sure, structurally low, but insolvency trends appear to be rising?
The second question is on coeo, because I understand that BaFin approval is the final step before closing. And you have confirmed your guidance for 2026, which includes coeo's contribution. So considering that the actual closing will now take place at least 2 months later than planned or something like that, it will be useful to understand whether you expect this delay to have any potential impact on execution in 2026?
And the third one is on the German expansion. You highlighted Germany as a fragmented and consolidated market with CSI licensing obtained and operations starting, if I don't understand worse in January 2026. So some additional color on the medium-term ambition in that geography, let's say, in terms of scale, investment intensity and potential margin profile would be very, very helpful.
Thank you for your question. On the business volumes, clearly, there were major transaction this year that we had embedded as probability in our pipeline. But obviously, they all realize in a positive manner that probability will become 100%, and this has brought to doubling the level.
Clearly, the level of primary transaction across the core markets, the Southern European one, we see them less in the traditional NPL business, while they will be mostly focused on the UTP and Early Arrears part. And also the pipeline regarding nonfinancial claims from there is quite big given that it's a market we don't touch today or at a very limited extent in Spain and that for us is an open opportunity.
So we confirm -- we reiterate still what we had in the business plan of EUR 8 billion. Clearly, this EUR 8 billion is composed by forward flows and the new contracts. On a positive note, the forward flow this year only contributed more than EUR 4 billion. Clearly, this includes UniCredit that has finished in terms of forward flow last October and that is replaced by Sondrio that obviously it's smaller that will start after April.
And the renewal of Santander, which this year has done more than EUR 1 billion over our budget. So this brings us to positive expectation also on the forward flow contribution of 2026. If you remember, our original mix in the EUR 8 billion was EUR 2 billion from forward flow and EUR 6 billion from the rest and also this component is much higher. This is without coeo.
Obviously, coeo has an end market which is different. And in that sense, is a growing market. And this is all assuming in our core business still not substantial increase in the default rates, which is instead happening. So we prefer still to be conservative on this front. Also because you might remember that the time between winning the contract onboarding and the actual pickup of the activities takes a bit of time. And so it has a more dilutive effect over time.
Now on the coeo side, the -- in terms of execution of the integration, we don't see impact on the execution. Why? We have already defined the integration plan, and we are already moving ahead with the business opportunity without waiting the closing. So coeo team has built a division to manage NPL and has already deployed a system which allows them under our guidance to manage our traditional NPL.
And they already got new clients from January for which they are managing NPL bank. So we are talking to banks. I was actually in terms of for a conference with banks just 2 days ago because the regulator is telling them to prepare themselves for this increasing weight because they have not used those internally to manage more NPL. And to do it more efficiently based on other models and Italy was portrayed as a reference model for the servicing industry.
So that activity is developing. On the other side, we are deploying in Italy and in Spain, the coeo models and system. And we can say that already from April, we will start managing 2 of the major clients in our jurisdiction. So this is major results. Then if you look from a pure accounting standpoint, clearly, the figures we have given are pro forma, and it depends on the timing of close, we will consolidate from that point in time.
But in terms of free cash flow generation and the targets, we feel confident given that the contribution of coeo in '26 was pretty much somehow offset most extent from the transaction costs, while the full effect on the free cash flow side is from the year after. So because we already achieved this year, clean for the extraordinary elements, the EUR 90 million guidance, the target for the EUR 2.2 billion, it's pretty much sustainable despite this delay.
Now going back to your last question on the German expansion. Clearly, our history in Germany is different now from Southern Europe, where we bought a legacy platform that we will go to make more efficient, more modern. In Germany, we start with a model which is extremely light doesn't have legacy, and we would like to grow our market share, keeping that approach.
So we will look to M&A in a very thoughtful and selective manner, but we prefer the organic growth strategy in that specific sector, given that it has proven very successful and the AI-driven collection model in the German market has taken a lot of market share from traditional players in the small ticket business, and we hope to do the same also for the NPL. Obviously, adding the more human-intensive piece that we have explained is critical for when you manage larger tickets. But on that front, as I said, the team has already hired a few people, has already [indiscernible]. So -- and all of this is -- all these costs are included already in the guidance we have given.
The next question is from Davide Rimini, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Just a few. One is on cash flow. I was just wondering, you mentioned already your guidance in terms of working capital contribution for this year. I just wonder whether you might mention a few other building blocks to get to a rough guidance for this year versus the EUR 76 million reported today?
The second question would be just a clarification on the pro forma confirmed guidance for this year. I just wonder whether you might add on coeo business, whether there is any seasonality in the business that we should be aware of within the year? And that might affect sort of this message?
And the third question, still on coeo. I noticed that you put sort of a slide on the potential pipeline in the 18 months forward on EUR 250 million. And at the same time, you highlighted the opportunities in extended the business in countries like Italy and Spain. I just wondered whether the EUR 250 million is including these opportunities or is excluding those?
Davide, I will take your first question. '26, as we mentioned already in 2025 shows that we are able to -- excluding nonrecurring items to be at EUR 90 million. So in 2026, we still have CapEx that will be quite in line with this year, probably around EUR 30 million. We will have a positive contribution from working capital between EUR 20 million and EUR 25 million.
We'll have change in other asset liabilities that are always the IFRS EUR 70 million plus redundancy that expected around EUR 60 million. We have tax income to pay around EUR 30 million. Financial charge expected roughly EUR 36 million, EUR 38 million. And we still have the earnout to the grid that is the last one we need to pay this year is EUR 12 million. The next one will be in 2030 of EUR 60 million and minority that is quite in line with this year, so roughly EUR 8 million.
On coeo, as Manuela was mentioned, we get free cash flow that will be mainly compensated by the transaction cost and by higher financial charge. But from 2026, we will benefit from the cash flow. This is why we are confirming EUR 90 million. Then we will have the benefit of the proceeds for the portfolio sales that this is in line with our guidance. So we reduced the gross debt.
On the guidance for '26, if I understood the question correctly, -- this year, we closed for the doValue Group at EUR 217 million. In terms of EBITDA, we indicated in the guidance last year that the EUR 300 million included the bottom end guidance we had given before of EUR 240 million to EUR 250 million.
And in coeo, there is no seasonality effect. There are some mild effects related to [ an uptick ] of e-commerce transaction around Christmas and the like, but nothing as typical as the [ core ] activity in the traditional business.
In relation to your last question, if you're looking to Page 5, the pipeline of the EUR 250 million does not include the expansion to Southern Europe.
And if I may just have a follow-up sort of on the CapEx that you mentioned, the EUR 30 million is -- could you give us sort of a sense why sort of it should be off versus the EUR 35 million sort of spend this year?
Sorry, can you say it again?
I just wonder, if I picked up correctly, sort of you are pointing to EUR 30 million CapEx this year off versus the EUR 35 million reported today. I was wondering whether there's any reason for...
The main [delta ] this year we included all the costs mainly related to the Gardant synergies that was a one-off to integrate platform to have the positive effect of the synergies. So from next year, we will save this money. So we continue to spend our Gardant CapEx plus investment in technology...
Yes. Just to be clear, we don't expect a lot of cost from the integration of coeo because it's a different platform. So we will have some integration of unification of back-end platform, but it's more deployment and it's much more contained than in the Gardant case, which included a significant, obviously, FTE reduction effort and related integration of in-market platforms that in this case, we are not going to have.
Clearly, you have some costs related to the development of the -- of their platform in our countries and of our platform in their country. The second one has already been expanded in their P&L in 2025, given that we moved ahead just after signing. So this impact of integration is much less.
Another important point is differently from -- with an increasing trend vis-a-vis the past, the component of development, new technologies, AI projects as part of the CapEx has materially increased. Last year it was probably around 30%. This year will be more than 50%. This is obviously a function of bringing better processes, better technologies in our core system rather than integrating what we had.
The next question is from Davide Giuliano of Equita.
I have 4. The first one on gross revenues. Revenues were a touch below your guidance, but more than offset by remarkable efforts on costs. Can you give us some color on the like-for-like trend in revenues? And are you seeing a more pronounced slowdown in recent quarters compared to your guidance? Where do the difference come from?
The second one on Greece. In the release, you reported that there are still slowdowns in the onboarding of portfolios, I guess, still related to the Alphabet tranches. In addition, we have also seen a market drop -- a marked drop, sorry, in the collection rate compared to last year. Why are you experiencing these difficulties in onboarding? And in general, what trajectory do you expect for the Greek business going forward?
The third one on tax credits. Has there been any relevant developments for state tax credits? And can you give us your expectation on profitability of local tax credit servicing, which will be assigned to AMCO? And the very last one is just a quick comment on coeo results were very good in 2025. And I was wondering in light of Klarna's recent results, if your long-term assessment of the coeo business model or concentration risk with Klarna has changed?
Davide, I'll take your first question on revenues. As we anticipated in Greece, the reduction is not a -- tax reduction is mainly correlated to the -- as you mentioned, we have onboarded a huge amount of portfolios in 2025, very big, more than EUR 5 billion. So all the portfolio are onboarded, and we are managing those portfolio.
The only difference is when you onboard this big portfolio, you need to work on those portfolio to have up and running revenue. So the expectation was to anticipate revenue during 2025, but because they are very, very big portfolio, we need to work on those portfolios, start the judicial action to also reach an autologous agreements with the borrower.
So this created a temporary delay of those revenues from 2025 to 2026. And this is also impacting the collection rate you were mentioned because for sure, we [ existing ] portfolios that are still not having a run rate collection rate. So the first year will be lower, then we will pick up and go back to the previous collection rate. So we will consider this only really temporary effect that will not be any more in 2026.
And then we have also, as I mentioned, in Spain, the reduction of revenue arrears, but that one has been also a choice for us because that part is not high margin. So we prefer to reduce these revenues, increasing other type of credit to manage that have lower revenues, but higher profitability.
On the tax credit, we are waiting or waiting the operating metrics and that the laws to be published by March will indicate on how to execute what was in the budget law. So based on that, they are defining the operating model on which the services they will use will work on.
And we assume that after June, that type of business will be moved to them and they will allocate to subservicers. We have, as you know, a good relationship with them, given that we even increased last year or we even doubled the amount of portfolios that we were managing for them after they reassessed the number of services they work with.
So we are keeping ourselves for -- to manage that business, which is not included in our budget estimates. And the margin we are hoping for is driven not by the type of receivable, but the operating model that we want to create on the back end on our side, we should be a digital model. So to confirm the margin we have on the rest of the business in Italy.
Now on the coeo results, maybe Daniele can comment.
Klarna results, you mean?
Yes.
We watch very closely the quarterly results of Klarna, of course, because it is a key customer of coeo. First, let me begin by saying that as you have seen from the pipeline, coeo is diversifying much from Klarna. Nevertheless, it is still an important customer. What we watch for in the quarterly results of Klarna is the growth in the transacted volume.
And this is growing very healthy across all of the regions where coeo operates. Specifically, the most important are Germany, U.K. and Sweden. In those regions, Klarna is already very profitable with its flagship product which is Pay in 3 installments.
But a good news is that they launched recently the Klarna card. It's a debit card that sits in your phone and allow you to purchase in normal brick-and-mortar shops, with buy now pay later installment. And this is already producing an increase in purchase frequency by 8x in Germany. And this is driving a solid growth of transacted volume in U.K. by 40% and in Germany by 20%.
So we are happy about Klarna growth. Of course, their profits are suffering from expansion in other products such as consumer financing in the U.S. We think that there's a clear rationale in expanding in those products. And we hope that at a certain point, coeo will be able to expand its product offering towards the more profitable products.
The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti of Mediobanca.
Looking at the guidance for 2026, excluding coeo, you projected growth from EUR 217 million to EUR 240 million. Could you elaborate a bit more on the trends in the various markets? So should we expect growth in the Hellenic region, for example, and a further growth in Italy? And my second question is on tax receivables. In the past, I think that you have mentioned that there is an opportunity also in Greece on this segment. Could you just give us an update on this?
On the Hellenic front, we see 3 type of growth. One, the full action on the EUR 7 billion new portfolio onboarded in 2025 will have a collection effect on certain younger vintages that we didn't have before. And this was what Davide was explaining that you need to put activities in place before you see the actual results.
On the other side, don't forget that Greece is probably the country where we are diversifying more the product offer. We have the real estate company, the mortgage broking company, the advisory company. We are offering a data proposition out of the advisory company from this year.
We have created another company which they manage small ticket unsecured starting from next year, which is called doServe and will open the market for nonfinancial receivables and also the tax receivable opportunities you were mentioning where the process shall start next month. But this is as an upside is included in a very small amount in our budget given that it's a public tender process, and it might take a bit longer.
On the Italian front, the extra value perimeter, but also the Gardant one have been growing this year, mildly vis-a-vis last year. And we are now deploying at full speed also the revenue synergies that we had in the Gardant perimeter. Then in Italy, we have the asset management company. So that falls under that perimeter where we have developed now 2 new funds recently actually 3, and we have a pipeline for next year, too.
And last, on the data side, we think we will increase significantly the product offer to noncaptive clients. We have already developed the products. And remember, we also are launching in Italy the Stage 2 product, which has now might be -- we might be closing with 2 banks contract. So this is in our assumption. So it's exploring as much as possible the stocks we have and the inflows from BPM, doValue and Sondrio, but also to grow these other revenue lines.
While in Spain, apart from the fact that we have developed digital collection now in all the countries with the marginality increase, which is very strong. We mentioned -- I think Davide mentioned that on the 0 to 90 days past due, the margin on the digital channel is more than 80% versus less than 40% before.
There, we are deploying a JV, but we will discuss in more details in the next call on the legal servicing side because the structure of the legal services in the Spanish market allow us to develop this type of proposition. So it's really professional services type of revenues, which -- where we are going to use the capacity we have inside with strong lawyers with expertise in this sector for other sectors, which are not NPL related.
Mr. Della Seta, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Thank you all. We wish you a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.
Dovalue — doValue S.p.A., Nine Months 2025 Earnings Call, Nov 12, 2025
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the doValue 9 Months 2025 Financial Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Daniele Della Seta, Head of IR of doValue. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Daniele Della Seta, Head of Investor Relations and M&A at doValue. Today, I'm joined by Manuela Franchi, our Group CEO; and Davide Soffietti, our Group CFO, as we present our 9 months results. Manuela will begin with an overview of our performance, including key insights into market and business trends. Next, Davide will provide a detailed analysis of our financial results for the period. We conclude with a Q&A session to address any questions you may have. Thank you for joining us today. I will now hand over to Manuela.
Good morning. Building on last week's successful bond issuance to finance the coeo acquisition, I'm delighted to share the strong momentum behind our 2024-2026 strategic plan. Today, results reaffirm the strength of our foundations with consistent performance across all key metrics and a clear path towards our full year guidance. The first 10 months of '25 have been marked by solid profitability and continued cash flow generation. Non-NPL revenue continues to drive diversification and represent 57% of gross revenue, fully aligned with our strategic vision.
EBITDA ex-NRI grew 43% year-on-year, supported by accelerated synergies and disciplined cost management and representing a higher percentage of full year target performance compared to 2024. New business intake already exceeds the revised full year target at EUR 12.4 billion, reflecting continued strong flows from locked-in contracts in the third quarter, evidence of the stability of our business.
Operating cash flow more than doubled year-on-year thanks to a threefold improvement in cash conversion, in line to reach the full year guidance of EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million free cash flow in 2025. Finally, the recent successful issuance of EUR 350 million senior notes due November 2031, eliminates any financing risk for the coeo acquisition, reinforces our established position in the capital markets and it does at an excellent fixed rate of 5% with a first time 6-year maturity for doValue and the sector.
The regulatory approval for the acquisition are progressing smoothly, and we remain on track to close by January 26. This timeline allows us to demonstrate continuous delivery on our full year guidance on a stand-alone basis, something we are fully confident in achieving given these 9 months results. If you follow me on Page 3, you will see the tangible results of our commercial efforts. In the first 9 months, we have already reached the revised full year target of more than EUR 12 billion with EUR 12.4 billion in new business GBV. The positive momentum in new business continued in the third quarter with new mandates from a leading Spanish bank and new UTP flows in Italy, further strengthening our UTP segment.
We foresee for the full year up to EUR 14 billion. UTPs now account for 8.5% of our GBV, confirming the progress we are making in diversifying our portfolio and capturing opportunity beyond traditional NPL. GBV inflows from locked-in contracts with banks, which we normally refer to as forward flow, continue to deliver solid flows in the third quarter. And once again, they were able to cover 85% of collections. This performance was driven by sustained contribution across countries with Spain showing a remarkable plus 46% increase in flows from Santander alongside continued inflows from Italian and Greek banking partners, which fits very well with the potential renewal in the short term of the Santander contracts.
These flows confirm the recurring nature of our NPE franchise, which remains a cornerstone of our strategy and a source of stable visible cash flows. The new business inflows over the first 9 months, together with those secured in '24, further underscore the long-term resilience of our traditional NPE servicing model, even in periods of economic strength and healthy bank balance sheets. Building on our latest commercial milestone, the extension of the BPER partnership to include the Banca Popolare di Sondrio Perimeter, we anticipate an even higher contribution from forward flows going forward, net of the exit of UniCredit from the perimeter from November 1.
Our current pipeline comfortably exceeds the annual new business target of EUR 6 billion, excluding forward flows, providing clear visibility on delivery. Looking ahead, we see an estimated EUR 45 billion of mandates in the market over the next 18 months, with significant opportunities in Italy and Greece and promising prospects in Spain, particularly in the banking sector. Nonfinancial receivables remain a major growth avenue, further enhanced by coeo's specialized expertise, technology and client relationships.
Let's move to the next page. Page 4 provides further proof of this trend through the expansion of our strategic partnership with BPER Group announced last week. This agreement follows BPER recent acquisition of Banca Popolare di Sondrio and significantly announced the scope of our existing joint venture, which is 70% owned by doValue and 30% by BPER. The JV currently manages approximately EUR 2.7 billion of NPEs and benefits from long-term servicing rights until December '33, including 50% of new UTP inflows and 90% of new NPL inflows generated annually by BPER and Banca di Sondrio.
We are proud to announce that we successfully extended this rights to the enlarged perimeter of BPER Group, which has aggregated customer loans of around EUR 126 billion, an increase of roughly 40% compared to BPER premerger. This expansion, which was not contractually provided for, significantly increases the potential inflows under the existing contracts and reinforces the sustainability of our forward flow model. Beyond the servicing rights, we expect the partnership to contribute stock in mid-'26 from the enlarged BPER Group perimeter.
In addition, doValue will acquire a minority stake of 5.1% in Alba Leasing, Italy fourth-largest leasing operator with total assets of EUR 5 billion and NPE ratio of approximately 5%, the investment was made at very attractive valuation with a limited cash outlay of EUR 6 million that does not impact our leverage targets for '25. The small acquisition will give us a board seat in Alba Leasing and could open further opportunities to service NPEs from Alba Leasing given the servicing partnership with its 2 largest shareholders, BPER and Banco BPM and the portfolio with an NPE ratio of more than 4% on EUR 4 billion of assets.
This proactive approach confirms doValue positioning as BPER Group trusted partner, one of the most dynamic player in the Italian market and underscore the strength of our value proposition for banks. Moving to Page 5. We would like to provide a status update on the integration of Gardant, which remains firmly on track to deliver all promised synergies, reinforcing our ability to execute complex projects effectively. It's important to highlight that despite the recently announced acquisition of coeo, we have been fully focused on the integration of Gardant and consequent release of synergies.
As you probably remember, we guided up to EUR 15 million of annual pretax synergies with approximately EUR 5 million already achieved in '25. These synergies are primarily cost driven for 80%, complemented by revenue synergies for 20% from cross-selling opportunities and enhanced service offering. The integration plan is structured around 17 projects grouped into 8 work streams covering critical areas such as business model optimization to drive workforce efficiency and streamline corporate functions. Merger of master servicing platform, doNext and Master Gardant, unlocking savings in back-office operation and improving scalability.
HR savings through voluntary exits, optimized outsourcing practices and reducing hiring needs, thanks to a more stable workforce. IT and process harmonization, ensuring operational consistency and cost efficiency across geographies. On the revenue side, synergies come from the extension of doValue services to Gardant mandates, including offerings such as Data master legal and real estate services. These initiatives allow us to leverage our specialized capabilities and create incremental value for clients across both platforms.
To date, we have achieved EUR 13 million on a run rate basis. And by '26, the full effect of the promised EUR 15 million will be visible, supporting margin expansion. On Page 6, we go through our most recent achievement, the successful issuance of EUR 350 million senior secured notes due November 2031, confirming our strong and proven access to the capital markets. This is our second bond issuance in '25, following the February transaction that effectively reopened the bond market to our sector, a clear testament to our credibility in financing vis-a-vis comparable companies.
The new issuance was upside from EUR 300 million original offering on the back of exceptionally strong investor demand, over 3x initial offering, highlighting the confidence of the market in our strategy and financial profile. The notes carry a fixed coupon of 5.375%, significantly below our underwriting assumption and 163 basis points lower than the February issuance with a longer tenure that extends our maturity profile, removes near-term refinancing risk and spreads out the maturity of the 2 bonds, which are now 21 month apart. This established access to capital markets give us strategic flexibility.
We can optimize our capital structure further by refinancing higher cost instruments, including the 2030 bond, which became callable in 2027. This action could allow us to lock in lower rates and increase cash flows while maintaining a competitive funding profile over the medium term. The successful transaction reinforces investor confidence and underlines doValue ability to secure attractive financing conditions, supporting our long-term growth ambitions and diversification strategy. Addition, with issuance, we optimized financial costs by avoiding the drawdown of the bridge facility to finance the acquisition of coeo, which we expect to close by January 26.
I will now hand over to Davide, who will take you through the financials.
Thank you, Manuela, and good morning, everyone. On Page 8, you can see a summary of the first 9 months financials. Overall, in the first 9 months, we registered very positive results across all key metrics with solid growth in EBITDA, once again triggered by our non-NPL business. Gross revenues in the first 9 months of 2025 was EUR 404 million, showing a solid double-digit growth of 28.9 percentage versus previous year. A trend once again driven by non-NPL revenue, which determined more than 50% of growth at group level, continuing on the positive momentum of the recent quarters.
Net revenue rose to EUR 364 million, 28.9 percentage higher versus the 9 months of 2024, mirroring the gross revenue growth in the presence of a stable trend in outsourcing costs on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA ex-nonrecurring items was EUR 137 million, growing 43.2% versus the 9 months of 2024, supported by the successful release of synergies in Italy and cost savings in Spain. EBITDA ex-nonrecurring item margin stood at 34% up by 3.4 percentage points from 31% on a year-on-year basis, thanks to continued cost discipline alongside the impact of synergies related to the acquisition of Gardant.
Net income ex-nonrecurring items, more than doubled to EUR 12 million from EUR 5 million the prior year, thanks to the growth in EBITDA, which more than offset the increase in financial expenses and minorities. Moving now to Page 9, we can find a breakdown of gross revenues by region. In the Hellenic region, gross revenues was stable, down minus 0.7% year-on-year as solid dynamics in non-NPL revenue were offset by lower disposals in the 9 months, which impacted revenue.
In Italy, gross revenue grew 81% year-on-year, driven by Gardant contribution and by very positive trends in non-NPL servicing and recurring value-added services. In Spain, revenue declined only by EUR 1.7 million year-on-year as the third quarter was stable year-on-year, while in the first half, declining REO's were mitigated by improvement in all other categories. On Page 10, we show how we continue to successfully contain the natural increase in operating costs from the consolidation of Gardant. Thanks to continued cost discipline, which allows us to unlock savings across functions and markets.
Indeed, cost containment remain a key focus for the group, even in the current context of business expansions. In the first 9 months of 2025, HR costs were up by 25% versus the same period in 2024, linked to the effect of Gardant consolidation. The increase slowed down versus first half of 2025, thanks to the initial effects of synergies. HR costs increased in Greece due to the onboarding of new portfolios in the first half of the year. This effect was effectively mitigated by cost containment measures in Spain and Italy.
When it comes to IT, real estate and SG&A expenses, we recorded an increase of only EUR 5.4 million year-on-year, thanks to already achieved EUR 5 million synergies that mitigated the effect of Gardant Consolidation. On Page 11, EBITDA ex-NRI for the group was EUR 137.2 million, up EUR 43 million versus the first 9 months of 2024, thanks to the continued positive performance of recurring value-added services driving revenue and the acceleration of the synergies, which more than offset the lower disposal in Greece.
EBITDA ex-NRI margin increased significantly, thanks to the accretive impact of government and non-NPL servicing and continued focus on cost containment. The EBITDA for the Hellenic region decreased by 5% year-on-year to EUR 74.5 million as positive trends in UTP and value-added services WERE more than offset by the year-on-year decrease in disposals in the first 9 months with an improvement in profitability in the third quarter. The region delivered EBITDA margin of 46.7%, generating over half of the group's profitability. In Italy, EBITDA rose to EUR 71.1 million, excluding group costs, an increase of EUR 46.2 million versus the first 9 months of 2024, thanks to Gardant on which we are accelerating the release of synergies as well as to positive contribution of value-added services to gross revenue.
Gardant continues to contribute proportionally to our full year expectations. In Spain, EBITDA delivered a positive growth, albeit on a small contribution, thanks to continued cost efficiencies and new portfolio onboard. Nonrecurring items were limited to minus EUR 4.4 million despite the cost of integration of Gardant, mostly related to fee linked to coeo leading to an EBITDA reported of EUR 132.8 million. Moving to Page 12. We show very positive dynamics in net income evolution, which, excluding nonrecurring items, more than doubled year-on-year despite the higher financial costs and the new minorities related to BPER and Banco BPM inherited to the Gardant acquisition.
Breaking down the number, we start from a higher EBITDA driven by positive momentum across key products and markets. Write-downs on property, plant, equipment, intangibles, loans and equity investments were EUR 67.4 million, in line with our expectation, including also Gardant portfolios. Financial interest and commissions increased to EUR 43.7 million, driven by the interest on the new bond issued in February, which amounted to EUR 14.7 million, including amortized costs, the interest on the new term loan funding the Gardant transaction, which amounted to EUR 20.7 million, including amortized costs and the residual interest on the 2026 senior secured notes redeemed in February of EUR 1.3 million.
The line also includes EUR 7.3 million nonrecurring costs related to the early redemption of the 2026 bond and of the portion of the term loan dedicated to refinancing the 2026 bond, which was not utilized. Income tax for the period was higher due to the one-off effect in the 9 months of 2024 from the tax claim in Spain. If we adjust for that, tax is only slightly higher on the back of the higher EBITDA and the consolidation of Gardant's profit-making legal entities in Italy.
Finally, minorities increased due to Gardant's partnership with Banco BPM and BPER Banco. The nonrecurring items at the net income level amounted to negative EUR 19.3 million, mainly due to the one-off costs related to the refinancing of 2026 bond as well as the EUR 8.8 million cost related to the exit of employees as part of the integration in Italy. Moving to Page 13. Let's have a look at the cash flow dynamics, which improved significantly. Cash flow from operations in the first 9 months increased considerably to EUR 101.4 million, up a staggering EUR 77.8 million increase versus the first 9 months of 2024 as cash conversion tripled over the same period. This positive result was achieved, thanks to continued reduction in net working capital, thanks to improved control of the invoicing cycle for the securitization and positive dynamics in advanced payments.
We confirm our target of EUR 50 million positive effect from working capital in the full year. CapEx was EUR 15.5 million, with acceleration expected in the fourth quarter in line with historical seasonality as well as full year guidance. Lease payments slightly increased versus previous year to EUR 14.2 million due to Gardant's offices, mitigated by real estate efficiencies carried out by the value. Redundancies decreased slightly year-on-year to EUR 8 million in 9 months, mainly from the effect from the voluntary exit program part of the Gardant integration, which is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.
Other change in other assets and liabilities was slightly higher, driven mainly by payments for legal cases and circa EUR 9 million temporary impact of the 2024 MBO paid in 2025, higher than the 9 months 2025 MBO accrual. This negative effect will be offset by year-end. Free cash flow was significantly higher than the previous year at EUR 41.5 million, up from negative minus EUR 15.5 million in the first 9 months 2024.
The EUR 57 million increase in free cash flow was a notable result, in line with our ambition to return to the historical levels of cash generation. The slightly decrease in free cash flow in the third quarter was expected due to the tax down payments and the coupon on the new bond, both paid in the third quarter. Minorities of EUR 7.7 million linked to BPER and Banco BPM were unchanged versus first half and no further significant payments are expected to minorities in 2025. Investment in equity and the financial assets includes the earn-out for [indiscernible] paid in January 2025.
We confirm our full year guidance of EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million free cash flow before debt repayment. Based on this, do value currently trades at a free cash flow yield of around 13%, which is exceptionally high and underline the attractive valuation of our stock. To conclude, let's now move on Page 14 and look at our financial structure. Net leverage at the end of September stood at 2.3x on a pro forma basis with 12 months of Gardant EBITDA, decreasing from the 2.4x level at December 2024 and exactly in line with the level reported at the end of the first half. This is a very positive result when considering the typical seasonality of Q3.
Historically, leverage tends to increase in this quarter due to concentrated cash outflows before declining again at the year-end. For example, last year leverage moved from 2.9x in June to 3.1x in September before closing at 2.4x in December. Maintaining 2.3x in the first 9 months despite the seasonal dynamics and extraordinary cash outflows related to earn-outs and minorities confirms the robustness of our deleveraging path, progressing steadily towards our targets. We also maintained a solid liquidity buffer of EUR 257 million, including EUR 135 million of undrawn revolving credit facilities. Even after the payment of the first tranche of the term loan amortization and the interest on both term loan and the 2030 bond.
Our corporate rating remains stable at BB with a stable outlook affirmed both Fitch and Standard & Poor's following the announcement of coeo acquisition and the recent bond issuance. Overall, this set of results confirms that we have continued to deliver on our targets with discipline and consistency, strengthening our foundations and positioning -- due to achieve its full year guidance and long-term strategic ambitions. This is all on our side today. Thank you all for your attention. We will now take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Tommaso Nieddu of Kepler Cheuvreux.
2. Question Answer
The first one is on your shareholders. There have been some market rumors suggesting a potential overhang linked to the position of your anchor shareholders. So could you please comment on this and whether there have been any discussion or signals regarding possible changes in their ownership and then if you can provide reassurance about their continued commitment to do value. The second one is on new mandates. You have already surpassed the EUR 12 billion target on new mandates for 2025, targeting as I -- if I understood well, around EUR 14 billion for the end of the year. So looking ahead to 2026, do you expect a continuation of this momentum and still on forward flow agreement, do we have any news on Santander's contract renewal? And the last one on net working capital. Over the last 3 quarters, you have had a positive release of around EUR 24 million. And do you still expect for the end of the year around EUR 10 million, EUR 15 million? I think you already answered this, but I wanted to be sure. So implying around EUR 10 million absorption in Q4. And if you can give us more color for 2026.
Thank you, Tommaso, for your question. On the first point, we have no indication from our shareholders of any intention to sell their stake, and we have not been involved in any such process. Given the strategic nature of their investment and our tight partnership in servicing, a relevant amount related to their investment in NPs we strongly believe that the shareholders are more interested in the strategic nature of the holding in value rather than short-term monetization.
Moreover, given the current valuation levels and the growth prospects, especially after the coeo acquisition, in which our shareholders are strong supporters, it wouldn't be financially reasonable to sell at these prices for sure. On your second question on new mandates, yes, I indicated that I foresee -- we didn't increase the guidance because, honestly, we are at the end of the year, it didn't really make sense to upsize it twice. But I see that we will close the year probably at around EUR 14 billion.
For 2026, we are finalizing our budget. Our original guidance was EUR 8 billion per annum, including the EUR 2 billion forward flow. Clearly, on the forward flow side, we have positive element, which comes from the Sondrio agreement. And also to your other point, we see also positive news on the Santander side that we will communicate more officially in the next couple of weeks, while we were already estimating the exit, obviously, of the forward flow from UniCredit. So overall, the outlook on the new business is positive. I don't feel like giving today an upsized guidance for '26. Probably -- we can give it as soon as we announce the full year '25 results and finalize the budget estimates. also looking into the current market dynamics and opportunity we foresee in all the countries as we are today.
And going to your question on Working Capital, I confirm that our guidance for the full year to have a Working Capital impact of roughly EUR 15 million. This is because in the last quarter, we are growing a lot in terms of revenue EBITDA as always happened in the -- according to our historical trends. So we will have this absorption of roughly EUR 10 million. Going forward in 2026, we see a normalization in the working capital dynamics. So probably we will have still a positive impact, but of a lower amount, probably around EUR 5 million of positive contribution from Working Capital. From '26 onwards, we expect to have a normalized Working Capital impact with 0 impact in terms of contribution to the cash flow.
The next question is from Simonetta Chiriotti of Mediobanca.
A couple of questions from my side. The first is on coeo. In the last call, you shared with us the progress of this company in the first 5 months. So I'm wondering if you can provide us an update on this front. And second, looking at the third quarter trends in isolation. So it is visible a lower revenue growth year-on-year, while EBITDA continued to progress at around 30%, 35%, which, if I remember when was your target for the year. So if you can explain the trends, maybe giving some color also in the different markets. And finally, tax receivable were flagged in the past as an opportunity in Italy and in Greece. Also on this side, if it is possible to have some color and updates?
Thank you, Simonetta, for your question on coeo, I just visited them last week. They are progressing well ahead of their seller plan. So they will close the year much above our buy-side case, probably in the area of EUR 85 million to EUR 90 million EBITDA, so both in terms of new business opportunities, they are adding new clients and enlarging the perimeter of the current clients they service with -- especially on the banking clients they serve like Santander, consumer finance, they are enlarging the size of the tickets they manage while adding more on the utilities and telecom space.
In terms of your last question, and then I'll leave to Davide the second, clearly, now the opportunity is more clear on the side of the budget law. So what the government seems to have created a project whereby they will tackle for beginning of next year, the local receivables, while they will then tackle in the second phase, the central receivables. The local one will be supported for the recoveries from AMCO as a sort of master servicer. There, the size of these claims are around EUR 40 billion, EUR 45 billion spread around the different regions.
So obviously, we are in contact with AMCO to support them in these activities. These are mostly small ticket unsecured. So the capabilities we have tried to develop organically for the small ticket for corporates as well as the competencies and the operating platform of coeo will definitely help for this type of claims. While for the central tax receivable, the one of the agency they didn't tried to be clear, these are more close to the larger loans, both secured and unsecured that are closer to our traditional model. So I would say that the market is moving -- opening to the servicing, and we are there to tackle both opportunities with all the instruments in place also thanks to the latest M&A.
On the question, we don't see a reduction in revenues. So we -- the only reason why the Q3 was weaker because of lower secondary sale in Greece, but this was expected from us because we will recover the sales in the last quarter. We have a good pipeline with already process in place to be finalized by December. On the other revenues, we saw a continued growth in the non-NPL in the value-added services. The third quarter is not always a strong quarter, as you know. But if you look at the 9 months, we are exactly in line with the expectation in terms of growth and also in terms of the full year target.
Also taking into account that the new portfolio onboarded, especially in Greece at the beginning of the year, most of them were coming from PQH, which was the bad bank of Greece. So they were not actively managed. So what the team has done in the last 6 months is to activate the legal procedures and the more aggressive approach servicer traditionally have to be able to have the effects of those on collection by next year.
The next question is from Davide Giuliano of Equita.
The first one on the contract extension with Popolare di Sondrio. Can we expect contract extension to start generating revenues in 2026? Or can we see something already in 2025? And the contract with BPER included the one-off transfer of some NPEs, can we expect something similar with Popolare di Sondrio? The second one on indemnity fees, what contribution do you expect from indemnity fees in Q4? And regarding value-added services, can we expect a similar performance in Q4 as last year was pretty solid on this front? And third one on Greece.
Over the last 2 quarters, we have seen a decline in servicing year-on-year with declining collection rate despite higher average gross book value. What trends are you seeing in the region? And on the cost side, we have seen a significant reduction in personnel costs in Greece. Can you give us a little more detail on the underlying dynamics? And can we assume this level at run rate? And another one, if I may, do you see room for further synergies with Gardant beyond the EUR 15 million announced? And how much of the EUR 10 million synergies already achieved in 2025 are included in 9 months results?
So on the contract extension, we will see the impact in 2026 from Sondrio addition so because the merger will technically happen next year. And we see a contribution that will be of NPE stock at the beginning, which will be assessed on the basis of the numbers at time of closing, but we estimate in the -- of around EUR 500 million or just above that number. In terms of your question on Greece, the reality is that it's a little bit linked to the point I made before, so that the new portfolio onboarding, given the origin of this portfolio will have most of the effect next year. So you see this year more the effect of the stock, which -- the original stock that was declining. And you don't see the effect of certain secondary sales that are expected this year more in the 4Q and not in the third Q, while you saw them on the collection side last year in the third Q.
So on an organic basis, also without the portfolio, new portfolios and without the secondary sales transaction, the collection rate is improving. In terms of cost, we think we can do in Greece much better. Remember that Greece was a carve-out of a bank plus an original company that Eurobank already had. And therefore, as any carve-out, it leaves space and headroom for efficiencies along the way. We haven't done too much effort on the efficiency in Greece up until this year because of the growth of the market, we didn't want to create any potential negative knock-on effect on collection.
But now I think the company is quite stable to be able to be more efficient on that front, too. Also another big project we are going to complete by January in Greece is the detachment from Eurobank in terms of systems. We still had some legacy infrastructure connected to that, that we are going to exit completely has been a major migration of portfolio from some of the legacy Eurobank systems to ours, which will also bring IT savings. In terms of Gardant, we had indicated that as of today, we have already locked in EUR 13 million run rate savings of the EUR 15 -- so we are around EUR 7 million as of today. So it will be higher by year-end in terms of the EUR 5 million. And we are very close to the EUR 15 million. So we shall be more positive for the next year target.
On the sales fees, we have a pipeline to have in the last quarter roughly EUR 15 million to EUR 18 million. This is why we also gave a range as a target because the secondary sales mostly are already locked in. So we need just to execute the process, but there are some sales that could happen at the end of December or January but we will have this number that will help us to reach our target or even a higher range of the target for this is only for the 4Q, the EUR 15 million is for the 4Q.
In terms of ancillary and value-added services, we will continue the path you have seen in the last -- the first 9 months. As always, the fourth quarter is also a good quarter for these services, mainly the one that are related to the volumes like legal services and admin services that will grow always in the last quarter of the year.
[Operator Instructions] We have a follow-up question from Davide Rimini of Intesa Sanpaolo.
Actually, follow-up questions since have been already posted. The first is on Greece. And I was wondering whether out of what you described in terms of better development in terms of top line expected next year and the actions on cost that you just described in terms of efficiency, whether you would commit to be back to 50% level margin in 2026? And the second question would be a follow-up. I noticed that you put a slide on the pipeline, the 18-month pipeline. which is now envisaged at EUR 45 billion. If I'm not mistaken, it was EUR 49 billion at the first half presentation. You could have a breakdown between countries. So I was wondering whether you might expand a little bit more on that one.
Yes. On the Greece, maybe to clarify, we actually said that the trend will be positive overall in terms of revenue, both because of the legal action activity on the new portfolio that will yield the results in 2026 and also for the growth of all the new services that we have developed in Greece over the last 3 years. Taking into account that for us, Greece is not only servicing, but it's a real estate company, advisory company, synthesis, which is a mortgage broking company, and we have just set up a new company to serve small ticket unsecured for utilities, corporates and state receivables given that new auctions and RFPs are coming to the market in the 4Q and in the first Q of 2026 and the required dedicated company given that in Greece, the main company regulated by Bank of Greece can only manage banking receivable by regulation.
On top of it, the efficiencies on the cost side will definitely confirm the margin that we are seeing in the country. In terms of pipeline, clearly, there are some transaction in and some out in the pipeline. So some of the mandates have just been assigned to others have been dropped by the seller, while new ones have been added. Where we see new mandates more active has been in the Turkey, in the Spanish market, where we are working actively with the funds on for projects that we will know, I mean, if they are one or not by the end of the year on top of the enlargement of the scope for nonfinancial receivables given that our platform there is becoming more solid. So it's just a trend of new projects in and out. Taking into account that our pipeline is built bottom-up with the names and size of a single project. It's not just a percentage of market estimate. So it's quite detailed.
Mr. Daniele Seta, at this time, there are no questions registered, sir.
Thank you very much, always, for your time and your attention to us. Have a good day.
Financial data from Dovalue
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 603 603 |
10%
10%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 50 50 |
92%
92%
8%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 553 553 |
6%
6%
92%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 375 375 |
6%
6%
62%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 197 197 |
24%
24%
33%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 113 113 |
58%
58%
19%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 84 84 |
4%
4%
14%
|
|
| Net Profit | -26 -26 |
46%
46%
-4%
|
|
In millions EUR.
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Company Profile
doValue SpA engages in the management of non-performing loans on behalf of banks and investors in Italy and Greece. The company is headquartered in Verona, Verona and currently employs 3,365 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2017-07-14. The company provides services for the management of loans and real estate assets, primarily non-performing receivables, for banks, investors and public and private financial institutions. Its offering includes Servicing, Ancillary Services and Real Estate Services. Servicing includes debt collection and loan recovery, management of lease payments, due diligence, structuring, and co-investment. Ancillary Services provides ancillary services of commercial, property and legal nature through other companies or internal structures. Real Estate Services offers auction facilitation, borrower cooperation agreement, repossess real estate valuations, real estate valuations and technical and professional services, among others. The firm focuses on southern Europe.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | Italy |
| CEO | Mrs. Franchi |
| Employees | 3,280 |
| Website | www.dovalue.it |


