Keyera Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = C$15.68b | Revenue (TTM) = C$7.19b
Market Cap = C$15.68b | Estimated Revenue = C$8.99b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = C$23.59b | Revenue (TTM) = C$7.19b
Enterprise Value = C$23.59b | Forward Revenue = C$8.99b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Keyera Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
17 Analysts have issued a Keyera forecast:
Analyst Opinions
17 Analysts have issued a Keyera forecast:
Keyera Events
Past Events
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AUG
6
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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JUN
15
Keyera Corp., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Jun 15, 2026
3 months ago
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MAY
14
Shareholder/Analyst Call - Keyera Corp.
4 months ago
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Keyera — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. My name is Jenny, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Keyera's 2026 Second Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the conference call over to Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thanks, and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO; Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President, Liquids Business Unit; and Brad Slessor, Senior Vice President, G&P and NGL Pipeline Business Unit. We'll begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen, after which we will open the call to questions.
I'd like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give today relate to future events. These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and our website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, we successfully closed 2 strategic acquisitions, the Plains' Canadian NGL business and the remaining 50% interest in KAPS. These acquisitions are part of a strong foundation we have assembled for the next phase of disciplined growth and long-term value creation. Our focus now turns to integrating these investments, executing our growth projects and delivering greater value to customers and shareholders.
Our team is working hard on integrating the Plains business and continues to make meaningful progress on identifying and delivering synergies. We will continue to provide updates as that work progresses.
After the quarter, Keyera also submitted its response to the Competition Tribunal regarding the Competition Bureau's notice of application. Because this is an ongoing litigation, we are limited in what we can say, but remain confident in the strength of our case and look forward to demonstrating the value creation that will result from this transaction.
Turning to our quarterly results. In Gathering and Processing, we delivered a new quarterly record for realized margin driven by strong contributions across the segment. We also set a new quarterly realized margin record in liquids infrastructure, reflecting contributions from the Plains' Canadian NGL business. We continue to deliver and advance our growth projects. KFS Frac 2 debottleneck was brought into service in early June, more than 1 month ahead of schedule and 20% below its original budget. KFS North debottleneck, KFS Frac 3, KAPS Zone 4 and ACE Rail Terminal continue to progress well, all on time and on budget. These projects are highly contracted and will contribute to growth and stable fee-for-service cash flow, supporting the strength of our balance sheet and long-term dividend sustainability.
Yesterday, the Board approved another 4% annual increase in the dividend. Dividend increase reflects our confidence in the business and allows us to preserve our balance sheet strength and financial flexibility to invest in further fee-based growth.
Now turning to AEF. The facility was restarted at the beginning of June and has been performing well. We continue to view this asset as an important part of our integrated value chain and a meaningful contributor to Keyera's long-term value creation. During the outage, we completed a comprehensive review of the facility and its associated operating plan and have identified opportunities to strengthen performance and reliability. Our objective is to maximize iso-octane production over the full 4-year cycle while maintaining our focus on safe, reliable and efficient operations.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Eileen to discuss the financial results and outlook.
Thanks, Dean, and good morning, everyone. Keyera's second quarter results reflect continued strength in our fee-for-service business, which was offset by lower marketing contributions. Excluding transaction costs related to the Plains acquisition, adjusted EBITDA was $309 million and distributable cash flow was $101 million or $0.39 per share. Net earnings for the quarter were $308 million. In our fee-for-service segment, Gathering and Processing delivered record quarterly realized margin of $128 million. In Liquids Infrastructure, we also delivered record realized margin of $222 million. Results included contributions from the Plains Canadian NGL assets and the KAPS acquisition.
Turning to the Marketing segment. Realized margin was $36 million for the quarter. Decrease compared to last year was primarily attributable to the AEF outage and corresponding timing impacts related to risk management activities. The risk management timing impacts are expected to partly offset over the second half of 2026 as physical volumes are sold.
Looking ahead, we continue to expect marketing to deliver strong contributions through the second half of the year, and we are reaffirming our 2026 realized margin guidance range of $360 million to $390 million.
We ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 3.3x, above our long-term target range. The increase reflects higher net debt related to recent acquisitions and lower marketing contributions in the first half of 2026. We remain focused on deleveraging and returning to within our target range in 2028. We remain on track to deliver a 16% to 18% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share CAGR from 2025 to 2027, and a 7% to 8% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share CAGR from 2027 to 2029. This growth outlook is underpinned by several clearly defined drivers, including our current synergy target of $120 million to $140 million, the continued filling of available system capacity and our portfolio of sanctioned growth capital projects.
Beyond those drivers, we continue to see meaningful potential upside from additional synergies, further capacity optimization in our condensate system, additional KAPS contracting and capital-efficient investment opportunities across the entire asset base. As our integration work progresses, we're encouraged by the additional value creation opportunities we've identified. We're also identifying opportunities to further enhance reliability across the acquired assets, which may modestly increase maintenance capital requirements over the next couple of years as we continue to apply Keyera's operating standards. Lastly, Keyera's 2026 guidance for growth capital, maintenance capital and cash taxes remain unchanged.
With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. Keyera continues to deliver its strategy to strengthen and extend our integrated value chain, building a more connected and efficient system that supports customer growth and improves access to key markets. Looking ahead, we'll remain focused on disciplined integration, continued execution of our growth projects and delivering long-term value for our customers and shareholders.
On behalf of our Board and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support.
With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.
[Operator Instructions] And your first question is from Rob Hope from Scotiabank.
2. Question Answer
First question is on the Liquids Infrastructure segment. So the $78 million of incremental contribution from Plains was quite a bit higher than we were expecting as well as commentary when the deal was first announced. Can you maybe speak to the specific drivers of that strength, whether that could be annualized or where there, we'll call it, abnormally high volumes in Q2?
Good morning Rob and thank you very much for the question. I think the general comment that we'd like to emphasize here is that the Plains' Canadian NGL business has been performing better than the way we originally modeled it and envisioned it. And that's right across the board from the [ core ] pipeline, the frac business in Fort Saskatchewan and also Empress, the volumes have been strong and the extraction cuts there have been better than what we had modeled.
So overall, the assets are performing and the business is performing very well. We're still getting up to speed, obviously. We -- it's been less than 3 months since we've taken over the operatorship of those assets. We see a lot of great opportunities across the portfolio that we're getting more details on and trying to prioritize and get at them as soon as we can. But I'd also like to caution that this is a partial quarter. And I would say it's premature to try to extrapolate a whole year's EBITDA based on a partial quarter right now. But generally, I want to emphasize that the business has performed very well.
I appreciate that. And then maybe moving over to your condensate assets. A key theme this quarter has been kind of the outlook for increasing condensate demand and supplies in Western Canada. Can you speak to how your business is positioned to handle an increasing condensate demand and what opportunities there are you seeing?
Yes, that's a great question. And first of all, I'd just like to comment that we are extremely excited with the developments that we've seen here and the cooperation that we've seen from the B.C. and Alberta government and also the federal government. And with that, we feel a lot more optimistic that we're going to see a lot more pipeline egress out of the province, which is going to help more oil sands growth in the future.
As you know, we have the hub for condensate and roughly 2/3 of all the condensate that goes up the oil sands are dealing with originates off of our system. So when we think about the growth in oil sands production over the last couple of 2 to 3 years with Trans Mountain coming into service, we've seen that part of our business, our pipelines that receive the condensate in our storage business and also our interest in the Norlite pipeline those volumes have been increasing very well. And so that part of our business has been very, very strong.
We anticipate more growth in the future with, again, more pipeline egress. So we certainly envision more capital-efficient debottlenecks on that system to continue to provide that service. But what I would say is that it is a tailwind for our entire business because a lot of that condensate is also going to come from the liquids-rich Montney and also the Duvernay for which we're very, very well positioned, both, I would say, in the Deep Basin and also up in the Montney fairway up to the Northwest in Alberta and also the B.C.
So -- and I'd also like to emphasize, I mean, this is also part of the reason why we doubled down on cash because we believe this is going to be an essential service that will be required by the industry for the next decade. So we're very pleased to have 100% of that pipeline to provide that service.
Incremental to that, we are looking at other solutions, which I think is premature right now. I mean we have capabilities to rail in more condensate, but also looking at other solutions to provide more condensate or diluent as that demand increases.
Your next question is from Robert Catellier from CIBC.
I just wanted to follow up on the condensate discussion. Maybe you can give us a little bit more color on your capabilities to deliver from the Edmonton up to the oil sands. And it looks like you're at contractual -- near contractual capacity in the Fort. So maybe some color on what you're looking at there to debottleneck and the timing of any potential opportunities. And the timing in particular, I wanted to talk about just because as the oil sands gets going, it might take a while before production ramps to meet the pipeline or the other egress in service dates.
Yes, that's a great question, Rob. And you know what, I'll turn that over to Jamie, and that's certainly part of his business and things that they're focusing on.
Yes. Thanks for the question, Robert. And I think I alluded to this last quarter as well is that we have a very well-defined sort of capital execution plan to basically increase the capacity of both the Fort Saskatchewan condensate system, but also working with our partner, Enbridge on the Norlite pipeline. And those things can either be fairly quickly implemented like DRA, drag-reducing agent or installing pump stations or even looping pipe for a segment of the pipeline where we can increase capacity. So we've identified all those. We believe that they're all very capital efficient, as Dean alluded to.
But also, I'd like to emphasize is that we are in conversations with all the oil sands players with respect to making sure that we're in their minds and we're their solution as they think to expand maybe 2, 3, 5, 10 years out.
Okay. So lots going on. So we'll wait and see there. On the -- I just want to touch on the frac spread. You gave your levels or proportion of hedging and you've chosen not to disclose the price. But presumably, you're hedging at levels above your underwriting case. So I'm just curious about the '27 level, the 65% frac spread hedge. Is that all from the hedge level you had coming into the Plains deal, so the levels that were in place at closing? Or has there been incremental hedging since then and just pricing relative to your underwriting assumptions?
Rob, those are great questions. And we have layered in incremental hedges both this year and next year. So as you know, we had a 12-month hedge in place already with Plains. So it left us more exposed in the second half of 2027, and we've layered in a significant amount of hedges in the second half as well as topping up again, the first half '27 and the rest of this year.
So we think that's important for a number of reasons. One is the frac spreads have been very strong, so well above our deal thesis. And two, as Eileen mentioned, we're beyond our stated range of where we'd like our balance sheet. We're still in a very comfortable range, but we'd like to be in a more conservative range. And this will ensure that we'll be able to delever our balance sheet as Eileen described.
Okay. Last one for me is just you're going to give an update, I think, on the synergies later in the year. But with what you know now, what areas are most likely to generate additional opportunities? Is that going to come from the cost side or the commercial side?
I would say all of the above. We -- as we've already announced that we delivered $90 million of synergies on day 1. And we're still operating redundant systems and things like that, we weren't able to convert them all on day 1. So we still have G&A savings, I would say, yet to come. We have operating savings yet to come, certainly synergies in maintenance and turnarounds as well. We've talked about logistics opportunities for more optimization there.
And generally, what we've seen across the board is there's been an underinvestment in the business. So we just see a lot of opportunities both to integrate our existing Keyera business and the business we just acquired but also more growth opportunities, commercial opportunities on the Plains assets that we acquired as well. So we're very optimistic about the upside we see.
We would also caution to you that there will likely be a little bit more maintenance costs in the first year, 1.5 years to 2 years, I would say. There are a few things that we would like to accelerate to get us to the operating standard that we like and to get to a steady state after that. But that initial maintenance cost that we might be exposed to, and we're still evaluating that is very small relative to the upside price that we see overall with the business.
Okay. Thank you and congratulations on closing those 2 acquisitions.
Your next question is from Ben Pham from BMO.
First question is on acquisitions. You've now closed 2 major ones, the Plains and the remaining KAPS. And I'm curious as you think the next couple of years going forward, should investors view Keyera as more of a harvest? You mentioned the deleveraging focus? Or do you think about your footprint, is there any white space or further M&A opportunities that you see in the next few years?
Ben, those are great questions. I really want to emphasize that our focus right now is 100% on capturing the opportunities that we see both in the KAPS acquisition and also the Plains NGL business. And those opportunities are very significant in our mind, and we can deliver a lot of value for our customers and our shareholders for the visible future. And Eileen described the upside that we talked about, the 16% to 18% from '25 to '27 fee-for-service EBITDA growth and then 7% to 8% out to '29.
We see growth opportunities well beyond that, especially when we think about the macro environment that we're in. And I think that we're in a 10-year cycle of really great growth in our basin for which we're very, very well positioned. Will we consider future M&A? Sure, we will. But I want to just emphasize that our primary focus is just delivering on the value that -- of the acquisitions we've already made and our base business. I mean we have a lot of big projects that we're also executing on, and we want to make sure that we do the best possible job on that as well.
Okay. Got it. And maybe on the organic growth side, you had some good news on the KFS Frac 2 execution. And I know it's a small project, big percentage benefit on the budget. As you think about your remaining projects, you're moving -- advancing them for, do you see maybe potential read-throughs on some optimizations? And just on that topic, can you remind us with cost savings versus budget? Is that a benefit to Keyera customers? Is it a mix between the 2?
Yes. Well, maybe I'll start answering the question, and I'll pass it over to Jamie. But on the cost savings side, we're pursuing both. So there are areas where it will accrue 100% to us, especially at places like Empress, but some of the costs also at our KFS North location. But we also want to pursue opportunities where we create more value for our customers. So if we can reduce our costs and those costs that flow through to our customer provide a better service to them and more value to them, we are equally as incentivized to pursue those as well.
But in terms of our overall execution of our program, maybe I can just talk -- turn it over to Jamie.
Yes. Thanks, Dean, and thanks for the question, Ben. Look, I mean, I think the factors behind ultimately the success that we've seen in the KFS 2 debottleneck and how we've seen success to date in the projects that we're executing the bigger projects is multiple fold. I think we've matured as an organization with respect to project execution. We've hit the market at a good time with respect to the service providers, the constructors in the field, but also shop spaces available. And that's benefited us in the short term, but it's also, we believe, going to benefit us in the long term because we've consciously developed partnerships with those service providers that are long term in nature.
And for us, giving them line of sight to long-term business, we've reaped the benefits in the short term, but we also believe that we're going to reap the benefits in the long term because there will be a change in our environment. You can even see it unfolding right now in Western Canada with respect to more projects putting pressure on the skill set that's available. And we believe that, that will give us a competitive advantage going forward as well.
Yes. And maybe just to add one more thing to Jamie's comments is that one thing that we've really put more focus on is just more oversight on all our contractors, like in terms of fabrication shops and things like that, we have our people right embedded in those shops to ensure that the quality of what we're getting that gets delivered to site is in accordance to the spec that we set out to deliver.
And your next question is from Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets.
I wanted to take a high-level overview about your cash flow profile. I wonder if you could discuss between the 3 buckets of take-or-pay fee-for-service that have volumetric exposure and then marketing. Directionally, where do you see it sit today? And where do you reckon you want to be by the end of your forecast period in 2029? And what gets you there?
Good morning, Maurice. I'll turn that question over to Eileen to answer.
Thanks, Maurice. Great question. I would refer you back to when we announced the Plains acquisition. And at that time, we were 70% fee-for-service on a pro forma basis, 30% was marketing. Of that 75%, 20 -- sorry, 45% was take-or-pay with average contract length around 12 years, again, on a pro forma basis, which is very strong. And that is just an average from 2026 to 2028.
So as we continue to bring on these projects and with more of the KAPS that we just acquired, 100% of KAPS where the contracts are long duration, well over 10 years, 75% take-or-pay, frac 3, the ACE Terminal, all of these projects, that just continues to grow that very, very strong cash flow. So we will provide an update, again, when we provide a greater update on some of the other items on what that revised cash flow looks like. But I can assure you, it does continue to improve as we start to execute and bring on these projects.
Understood. And if I could finish off with a question on the macro. And in this case, I'm going to request that you speak on behalf of the industry on this one. You mentioned earlier that you believe on the macro side, we're on a 10-year cycle of growth. What, if anything, do you think the industry still needs be that from the government, from other indicators for this cycle of growth to proceed?
Yes, that's a great question, Maurice. First of all, I do want to emphasize because sometimes I think our industry, we complain about the things we don't have. And we don't maybe sometimes stop and give enough credit for the tremendous progress that's been made. And I just -- I want to give a lot of credit to our federal government. Our Prime Minister is driving us in the right direction, working with Premier Smith and also Premier Eby, too, in B.C.
And so when I think back 2 years ago and the things I worried about, it was the top 3 things I worried about were all government related, mainly the federal government. And that's much different now. So yes, we need more progress and more clarity in terms of policy and improvements in some regulations to streamline things. But I just want to say there's a tremendous amount of momentum that's carrying us in the right direction. And I have a high level of confidence that our governments are going to get to where we need to be to be that energy superpower and for our industry to thrive and continue to grow for the benefit of all Canadians.
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny from National Bank Capital Markets.
Maybe just back on the consolidation of KAPS and thinking outside of the financial accretion. Dean, maybe you can just expand on some of the other strategic benefits that you've alluded to? What other commercial opportunities either upstream or downstream of the pipe that you might now be able to accelerate as a 100% owner?
And then I guess, with these opportunities in front of you, if you might consider further noncore asset sales as just a way to build some dry powder and also accelerate the timing back to 3x.
Yes. Well, those are great questions, Pat. Maybe I'll start backwards on the asset sales. I mean, we -- I think we've been very disciplined about continuing to high-grade our portfolio and making sure that our resources are focused on the things that matter most for the company, not just today but for the long-term future. So we have sold a number of facilities over the last 3 years, and we'll continue to high-grade our portfolio, especially the stuff that is not super core to our long-term strategy.
Having said that, I wouldn't expect anything super significant in terms of a dollar value sale that is going to meaningfully change our debt position in the next 18 months. As we mentioned, we've been very disciplined about locking in our hedges, especially on the frac spread, but also with our iso-octane business to make sure that we have the cash flow to drive that leverage just with the performance of the business.
With respect to KAPS, I mean, when you go back on KAPS, it was -- I would say, in my time, it's probably the biggest decision we ever made at the time, but probably the best decision we ever made. And KAPS connects our downstream and upstream business. And so for us to provide the best value-add service for our customers, KAPS is a core, core piece of that. And again, when you think about the NGLs and condensate that is going to get produced in this basin with all the pipeline egress that's going to get built for crude oil and more LNG facilities, that is going to be essential asset that we're going to fill it to capacity. So we just think that it's a core part of our overall integrated service to make our business better and more competitive. Anything you want to add?
No. Like I mean, I think as we think about our assets and the opportunity to integrate it with Plains, I mean, as Dean alluded to, we're -- I think we're very pleasantly surprised with respect to the quality of the people. We alluded to the assets are foundational core assets for us going into the future. We may need to spend a few dollars, I think, here in the next year or 2 to get them up to our standard, as Dean said. But that will enable us to grow our collective business.
And I think the short term -- one of the short-term benefits is in allowing to take the very talented people that we've brought into our organization to think more broadly around the system of assets that we've brought into the asset. They tended to look at things more within -- on an asset-by-asset basis where they're highly integrated and the decisions we make at one asset impact other assets as well. That's one of the short-term benefits that we've been able to see in action very quickly. And then as Dean alluded to, the long-term integration opportunities that we're extremely excited about. But that would be all I would add to the Plains acquisition element of it.
Okay. That's great color. I appreciate that. And then maybe just a follow-up on the marketing outlook. I know you're well hedged, but I guess just curious, given the strong crack spread, refined product environment, if these market dynamics continue, might there be some further tailwinds here for the iso-octane margins going forward? And maybe just confirm where any potential outsized marketing contributions would first be directed, namely balance sheet versus growth?
Thanks, Pat. Great question. So in terms of the marketing itself, I think we -- again, for this year, the $360 million to $390 million, we feel is still very appropriate, weighted very much towards the second half of the year. And of course, it reflects the outage that we had in the first half of the year at AEF.
And as I said, as we look forward, we're set up well -- really well for 2027 from a marketing perspective. And as you noted, those RBOB to WTI spreads or what we refer to as RBOB cracks have been incredibly strong. And we have been layering on RBOB hedges into next year as well as even into 2028 because the values are that strong. So I think that is -- that's a positive.
And as Dean mentioned earlier, on the frac spread side, we're more than like 65% of the volumes are also hedged at better values than our deal thesis. And then the propane business is also, in general, set up quite well. Again, our ability to export propane to Asia through AltaGas export facility where demand remains strong. So I think for next year, we're set up quite well.
And in terms of cash flow, yes, back to capital allocation, we do -- our priority is to bring that -- the balance sheet back within the target range. And you asked about asset sales. The good thing is our leverage is still -- it's conservative, that 2.5x to 3x, even though we're a bigger side. And we don't need to sell assets. It's more just a matter of cleaning up the portfolio as part of normal course.
[Operator Instructions] And your next question is from Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen.
Dean, one of the strategic rationales for the Plains transaction was increasing connectivity across the NGL value chain. And again, I'm not trying to get you to front run a capital project or anything like that. But now that you've been operating the assets, I'm wondering if you could provide an example or an anecdote of something that would support that previous messaging that maybe you hadn't touched on in the past?
Yes. Aaron, that's a great question. I mean we're just tremendously excited by the combination of the 2 asset bases because our business was more centered in the West and also getting molecules down into the U.S. And when we've had our hands on this business now for 2.5 months and now we're getting more exposure out to the Eastern markets and it is all priced off of Bellevue. And we just see tremendous opportunity to take those molecules to the East, but also to be able to distribute them in the Mid-Continent too right from Empress down in the U.S. and accessing also into Wisconsin and Michigan as well. So we just like those markets.
I mean, we're a supply-based basin. So a big part of the value that we add is being able to access markets efficiently. And while the Asian markets are very strong off the West Coast, and we're well positioned there, continentally, the Eastern markets are strong, too, especially in the winter time. And we're very happy to have the assets that can serve those markets as well. But I don't know if there's anything else you guys want to add.
Yes. No, I think just to add on to something I shared with the last answer to the question was without getting into specifics, we certainly see opportunities to debottleneck the assets in a very capital-efficient way to facilitate some of the opportunities that perhaps the previous owner just didn't have the commitment and the focus to pursue. And so there's no big projects that I think we're in a position to be able to announce over the next little while. It's kind of boring, but I had a boss once that said bump single score rents. And there's just a lot of bump singles that we were unearthing. And that's going to result in some really impressive, I think, growth for our organization over the next year or 2.
My next question. I wanted to ask about bottlenecks. I think the KAPS volume ramp is well documented as are your fractionation and rail capacity additions. So like where do you see the greatest bottlenecks across added platform over the next 3 to 5 years. Is it the Plains business? Is it something else? Is it G&P? Like how do you -- how would you rank sort of what's most urgent to not as urgent?
Well, that's a great question. I mean the great thing is that we have sanctioned projects in place to address some of the bigger ones. So with our frac projects and -- but we still have capacity on KAPS. And yes, we'll have to add more pumping stations and things like that. But we still have great capacity there to serve the Montney and Duvernay developments at that part of the basin. We think that we can use our assets more effectively together, so like some of our storage assets perhaps to get better effective utilization out of the storage as an example. So I think that's positive.
We talked about our oil sands assets. So the pipe connectivity and the capacity on that between Edmonton, Fort Saskatchewan and storage is included as part of that, but also the Norlite pipeline. And so there might be debottlenecks that are required on those assets over time. And as Jamie just described, there's debottlenecks that we're -- these are all generally low capital debottlenecks that I'm talking about now. So I would envision that they're all very capital efficient and are going to generate very high returns for us overall.
So I'd say the -- the biggest need -- capital need over time is probably on the G&P front where to process all the incremental gas that's going to get developed, there's going to be likely more processing capacity. And Brad, you want to add some comments.
Yes. Thanks, Aaron. It's Brad here. I really appreciate the question. I think as leveraging up what Dean said, as the oil sands continues to call for more condensate, we think that's going to come from the Montney and the Duvernay. We think we're well -- very well positioned to capture our fair share of that growth coming down the KAPS pipeline. But all that drilling for condensate brings the need for more gas processing and more NGLs to make it to market as well. And you've seen us talk in the past about a really capital efficient debottlenecks at Simonette, our Wapiti gas plant. And we also recently talked very, very briefly about getting in front of the incremental need for gas processing we see out in the basin in the Montney, especially for sour gas processing, which is complex and is right in our area of expertise. And so that's some of the areas that our team is certainly focused on, and we look forward to chatting more about that in the coming quarters.
And your next question is from AJ O'Donnell from TPH.
Just wanted to focus on some of the macro intra-basin, just thinking about some of the incremental progress that's been made on the data center development and particularly like given your position in land in the industrial heartening corridor, could you maybe talk about your surplus of land or maybe potential gas supply capability that could potentially support a similar power generation project or something data center adjacent opportunity?
Great question. I mean, I think that we're going to see a lot of opportunity for many developments in the industrial heartland. And as you mentioned, we have 1,300 acres of land there that is situated in a very good spot. It has very good pipe connectivity right to those lands for pretty much every product. The pipes run right through the land. So that's a big advantage. We do have the salt rights to build cavern storage. We have our ACE Rail Terminal that's getting built, which we can multipurpose for other projects.
So -- and also I'd point out that Shell's carbon capture line cuts through the northeast corner of that land as well. So if there's any projects that require carbon sequestration, we have a short tie-in to get into their line. So there's a lot of advantages there. I won't speak specifically to data centers. I mean that's always a possibility, and I think it's great to have more demand centers for our natural gas. But I would just say that any developer that requires reliable supply of feedstock, they're going to look to Alberta. This is a great, great place to do business. And again, I can't think of a better place to locate new opportunities in our lands in that area.
So our team, we have a business development team that's working on opportunities. It's too early to talk about what those opportunities look like. But I think that for the long-term future growth of Keyera, you're going to see a lot more development on that land because it's so well situated and has so many amenities that advantage it.
Okay. And maybe just the last one, just thinking about your system and tying it back to the macro and just overall volume growth into the remainder of the year. Just wondering if you could refresh us all on kind of how producer activity is tracking right now, kind of what you're expecting for the cadence of volume ramp through next year or through the end of this year and into 2027?
Yes. Well, listen, as I mentioned before, I mean, we are very, very excited about the macro future, the long-term future, both short, medium, long term. Will there be some cycles and blips to there? Sure, there will be. But generally, I think there's a very strong tailwind for our entire business, and that is good for Keyera. We have core basin infrastructure that helps to enable the basin to grow. We have -- we provide services that add value to our customers, the producers, which help them, incent them to continue to drill more because it's profitable for them.
We -- so we've already published our guidance for our fee-for-service EBITDA growth, which again is -- I believe it's the very best in -- out of all the midstream providers, 16% to 18% fee-for-service EBITDA growth from 2025 to 2027 and 7% to 8% from '27 to '29. So that guidance is what we're locked in on delivering. And as we said, we have -- we see a ton of opportunity that's going to carry our growth well beyond 2029. So we're very excited.
There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with the closing remarks.
This is Dan Cuthbertson with Investor Relations. Thanks all again for joining us today. Please feel free to reach out to our IR team with any additional questions. And with that, I hope everyone enjoys the rest of the summer.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Keyera — Keyera Corp., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Jun 15, 2026
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the Keyera Strategic Growth Outlook and 2026 Guidance Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that this conference is being recorded today, June 15, 2026. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Tyler Monzingo, Senior Specialist, Investor Relations. Tyler, please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. Joining me today are Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; and Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO. We'll begin with prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen. After that, we'll open the line for questions. Before we move forward, I'll remind you that some of the comments we'll make today relate to future events and are forward-looking in nature. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Full details regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures can be found in the notes to these slides on our website and in our public filings on SEDAR.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Tyler, and good morning, everyone. Last month, we reached an important milestone for Keyera. We've closed the Plains NGL acquisition and are now entering the next phase of growth and value creation for the newly expanded platform. Today, we'll walk through the evolution of our integrated platform, our track record of disciplined execution and value creation and how the Plains acquisition will strengthen our business and create more value for customers.
We'll then cover the strong outlook for NGL volume growth across Western Canada. From there, we'll move into our updated long-term growth targets. We'll also discuss the pro forma Marketing segment, including 2026 marketing guidance. And finally, we'll review our financial framework and full 2026 financial guidance. We'll move through the presentation in the order shown on the slide.
Beginning with the strategic overview section, our strategy has been very consistent over time, build the most efficient NGL value chain to maximize value for customers through reliable service and superior connectivity to high-value markets. Starting back in 2008, our foundation was our South region gas plants, extracting NGL mix and getting products to high-value markets.
From the beginning, the business was built around 3 core parts of our value chain: gathering and processing, liquids infrastructure and marketing. Even in the early years, the focus was on integrating those capabilities to efficiently connect supply to demand across the system. That focus on connectivity, reliability and customer netbacks continues to define the business today.
By 2014, we made several important strategic moves. First, the creation of FSCS, our industry-leading condensate system. Second, AEF. It allows us to upgrade butane into iso-octane, accessing higher-value markets. Thirdly, Simonette. This established our North region presence and positioned us to connect growing Montney supply. All 3 of these assets continue to be important drivers of value today.
By 2020, we're continuing to build scale and connectivity as we continue to grow along the growth of the basin. The Keylink pipeline more efficiently connected our Southern gas plants directly into our downstream infrastructure. At the same time, we continued expanding our North Region Montney footprint through the addition of the Pipestone and Wapiti gas plants. We also strengthened our condensate platform through participating in a 30% interest in the Norlite pipeline.
By 2025, we had fully integrated our North Region Gathering and Processing business with the rest of our value chain, creating a more efficient, reliable and competitive system for customers. The KAPS pipeline provided a direct connection between our North Region assets and Fort Saskatchewan. This project significantly changed the competitive landscape for producers along the Montney and Duvernay fairway.
For Keyera, it substantially improves system utilization, connectivity and competitiveness. Last year, we sanctioned KAPS Zone 4, extending our reach further into the Montney and providing customers in Northeast BC with access to our integrated value chain. We also sanctioned additional frac expansions and most recently, our ACE Rail Terminal to further support growing customer demand.
Together, this has created a highly integrated platform, delivering meaningful value for customers. That value is reflected in the strong level of long-term customer commitments and increasingly contracted cash flow across our integrated value chain. Slide 13 shows the results of the execution of our growth strategy and the investments made. Since 2008, fee-based margins have grown about an 8% annual compounded growth rate, which brings us to the next slide, which highlights our proven ability to sustainably grow the dividend over time.
As we continued to reinvest in growing the fee-based business, DCF per share steadily increased, supported by both fee-based growth and contributions from our marketing segment. Importantly, we achieved that growth while remaining financially disciplined. Leverage was consistently maintained within and at times below our target range. This is shown by the orange line along the bottom of the chart. And that balance sheet strength provides the capacity to reinvest through business cycles. The result has been consistent and sustainable dividend growth over time, as shown by the dark blue bars.
This disciplined approach has translated into strong long-term shareholder returns. Since 2008, total shareholder return has averaged over 16% annually, and we intend to continue applying the same focus on strategy execution and financial discipline going forward. With the Plains acquisition, we are now entering our next phase of disciplined growth and value creation. It expands our geographic reach, improves efficiency across the value chain and enhances our competitiveness.
Having successfully closed the transaction in its entirety, we will be making our submission to the Competition Tribunal on June 17 and remain very confident in the strength of our case. For customers, this acquisition means broader market access, stronger netbacks and improved reliability. This competitiveness shows up across all products. In condensate, we operate the leading condensate system supplying the oil sands.
In butane, AEF enables premium margins. In propane, we can now efficiently access all major markets and in ethane, Empress adds scale and flexibility. Together, this creates a fully integrated system that offers more value for our customers. Slide 17 compares what we said at launch with what we're seeing today. Overall, the transaction is performing at or above expectations. We continue to expect mid-teens accretion. We now see greater synergy capture than initially identified, improving returns and lowering the effective acquisition multiple.
Deleveraging has shifted modestly due to the transaction timing and the AEF outage in 2026, yet we still expect to be back within our targeted range around the end of 2027. The acquisition will allow us to materially exceed our previous 2024 to 2027 fee-based growth target on a per share basis. After the step change from the Plains acquisition, we are further extending fee-based growth targets to be 7% to 8% from 2027 to 2029.
Before walking through the specific drivers of that growth, let me first spend a minute on the broader macro fundamentals supporting long-term growth across the basin and how Keyera is positioned to enable and benefit from those trends. Global demand for oil, natural gas and NGLs continues to increase, while Western Canada remains one of the most competitive sources of supply globally.
As Canadian crude export capacity expands, oil sands production is expected to continue growing, driving increasing demand for condensate used as diluent. To meet that demand, producers continue to target high-value condensate-rich regions like the Montney and Duvernay. That increased activity also increases production of natural gas and other NGLs like ethane, propane and butane.
At the same time, increasing LNG and LPG export capacity is improving pricing and market access for those products. This further supports basin development. As shown on the charts, most incremental NGL growth is expected to come from the Montney and Duvernay plays where our assets are well positioned to serve growing customer demand.
Our integrated system is set up to enable customers to maximize the value of those products by processing them and connecting them to high-value end markets, which ultimately drives increasing volumes across our platform. With that context, let me now turn to Keyera's specific growth outlook. We're able to deliver industry-leading, highly visible fee-based adjusted EBITDA growth out to the end of the decade.
From 2025 to 2027, we expect fee-based EBITDA to grow about 16% on average annually, largely driven by the Plains acquisition and near-term synergies. Following that step change, we expect to deliver 7% to 8% average annual growth from 2027 to 2029. Importantly, this growth is supported by tangible drivers already underway, including sanctioned projects, capacity fill across the system and identified synergies. Also important, this growth is coming from continuing to do what we do best.
It is fully aligned with our core strategy and integrated value chain. As integration progresses, we expect to further define additional medium-term synergies. As we continue advancing that work, we expect to provide a further update on our progress around the end of this year. And beyond 2029, we continue to develop a deep inventory of additional growth projects, which I'll touch on later in this presentation.
But first, let me walk through in more detail the key drivers supporting our growth targets. Starting with synergies. Here, I'll make 3 points. First, we delivered about $90 million of annual run rate synergies at closing, substantially achieving our original target on day 1. This came almost entirely from corporate cost savings.
Second, we now have visibility to increase our near-term synergy target to within a range of $120 million to $140 million. And third, we continue to see additional upside above what is reflected in our current outlook. Medium- and longer-term synergies will remain a meaningful and growing driver of value creation. As I said, we look forward to updating our view on synergies at a later date.
Let me now move to the top of our integrated value chain with gathering and processing. Over the past several years, we have strategically positioned our North Region assets to be in the fastest-growing and most liquids-rich parts of the basin, particularly across the Montney and Duvernay. These assets connect directly into KAPS and the rest of our integrated value chain, allowing us to maximize value for customers while increasing utilization across the broader system.
As you can see on the chart, strong customer demand continues to drive increasing throughput across the North region. The blue dotted line represents available processing capacity that we've been able to add over time. And the blue bars show expected throughput growth as those assets continue to fill. All of the growth reflected in the blue bars is included in the growth outlook we discussed earlier.
The orange dotted line highlights potential upside beyond the forecast, driven primarily by opportunities to further expand both the Wapiti and Simonette complexes over the next few years. Additionally, we continue to pursue a disciplined buy-and-build strategy to further strengthen the top end of our integrated value chain. And beyond 2029, we continue to evaluate greenfield opportunities. For example, we've licensed a development opportunity in the Gold Creek area for potential future development.
Moving further downstream to KAPS. KAPS connects our Northern region supply to Fort Saskatchewan and provides a highly competitive path to downstream markets. It has been instrumental in driving growth across our integrated system. The pipeline is highly contracted and volumes have now exceeded initial design capacity for condensate.
We've been adding pumping capacity to accommodate additional contracted volumes. Last year, we sanctioned the construction of Zone 4 to extend the system further to connect into Northeast British Columbia, another high-growth area of the Montney. This project remains on time and on budget. Volumes on KAPS will continue to ramp up into the next decade.
Moving further downstream to our frac business in Fort Saskatchewan. Over time, we have focused on building a reliable, efficient and flexible frac platform to help customers maximize value for their products. The addition of PFS, now called KFS North, allows us to deliver an even more reliable, efficient and competitive service offering to customers. It increases operational flexibility and redundancy across the system.
We also have significant additional growth underway. We have 2 smaller 8,000 barrel per day expansions through the KFS II debottleneck and KFS North Phase 2 projects. The KFS II debottleneck is now in service and the remaining capacity expansion is being added later this year. And then the much larger 47,000 barrel per day KFS III expansion will be in service in mid-2028. All of these projects continue to advance on schedule at or below budget.
Importantly, substantially all current and future capacity is contracted under long-term agreements. This provides highly visible growth and further strengthens the quality and durability of cash flow across the platform. As liquids production from fractionation continues to grow, efficient access to end markets becomes increasingly important. That is why we partnered with 2 other leading Canadian infrastructure companies, CN and AltaGas to create the most efficient and scalable path from Fort Saskatchewan to global markets.
This is a strong Canadian infrastructure story. Keyera brings the Fort Saskatchewan land, supply connectivity and the ACE terminal. CN brings a rail network and AltaGas brings growing West Coast export capacity. Together, we're effectively creating a pipeline on wheels through a highly efficient unit train loading system that will move products to premium export markets, allowing customers to further maximize netbacks. The project is now under construction and enables scalable expansions as additional product demand develops over time.
Turning now to condensate. Keyera already operates the most extensive and efficient condensate system in the basin. This business is supported by long-term contracts with all major oil sands producers for both transportation and storage services. As oil sands production continues to grow, demand for condensate as diluent is expected to increase alongside it.
Over the planning period, we're seeing contracted volumes continue to ramp up, and we see several capital-efficient opportunities to support the growth. These include initiatives such as drag-reducing agents, targeted debottlenecking and additional infrastructure that improves overall system flexibility and capacity. You can see the expected volume growth profile on the chart on the bottom of the right-hand side.
Looking further ahead, Slide 28 highlights several opportunities that will help extend the growth runway beyond 2029. I'll just daylight a few here, but there will be more to come on this front, and we'll update the market as we continue to make progress. First, in our G&P segment, we will continue to pursue our buy-and-build strategy to provide more customers along the Montney and Duvernay fairway our full suite of integrated services.
This allows them to maximize the value of their barrels. As mentioned before, we have already licensed a location for a potential new facility in the Gold Creek area near Wapiti. Secondly, as utilization across the KAPS system continues to increase, we're evaluating several options to expand capacity. These include measures such as adding more pumping stations and introducing drag-reducing agents.
Thirdly, as volumes grow and energy markets develop further, it will make sense to further extend our ACE Rail Terminal in lockstep with market demand. And lastly, we see several capital-efficient opportunities to further expand our condensate platform as pipeline expansions and oil sands growth continue to drive diluent demand. We expect a meaningful step change in demand over the coming years.
So stepping back, we have several highly visible drivers supporting continued fee-based EBITDA growth through 2029 and beyond. That growth is supported by sanctioned projects, capacity fill across the integrated system and synergy realization already underway. This supports a growing base of highly visible and durable cash flow that supports sustainable dividend growth over time.
With that, I'll turn it over to Eileen to walk through the Marketing segment and our updated marketing outlook.
Thanks, Dean. The Marketing segment remains a key differentiator for Keyera. It enhances customer netbacks, drives volume across our integrated system and supports higher returns on invested capital. It also generates meaningful cash flow that can accelerate deleveraging and reinvestment.
With the Plains assets, the marketing business becomes larger and more diversified while continuing to operate under the same disciplined risk management framework. This slide outlines how the marketing business generates value. It's essentially a volume times margin business. For both iso-octane and frac spread, margins are driven by the spread between input costs and realized product pricing.
Then that margin is multiplied by volume. Across the broader marketing business, we connect products to the most attractive end markets and capture margin through logistics optimization and market access. The platform is primarily driven by physical positions supported by our infrastructure. Risk is actively managed through a disciplined framework with senior management oversight and a formal committee that meets weekly to review exposures and ensure positions remain within approved limits.
Moving on now to our 2026 Marketing segment guidance. We expect marketing realized margin to be between $360 million and $390 million. This guidance incorporates a partial year contribution from the Plains assets as well as the impact of planned outages at AEF, the Empress straddle facilities and KFS. Consistent with historical seasonality, marketing realized margin is weighted towards the second half of the year.
It also reflects disciplined risk management activities and conservative assumptions and is designed to be achievable with a high degree of confidence. We have assumed more typical iso-octane premiums for the balance of the year, providing room for potential upside should current market conditions persist. Looking further ahead, once the combined marketing platforms have operated together for a period of time, we intend to reintroduce a long-term baseline marketing margin guidance range for the combined business.
I will now move to capital allocation priorities and our financial framework. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. First, we preserve balance sheet strength and financial flexibility. Second, we invest in high-quality fee-based growth. And third, we aim for sustainable dividend growth. This framework has been consistent over time and continues to guide how we allocate capital. I'll start with financial strength, which is highlighted at the top of the table.
Maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been core to Keyera's strategy. It allows us to navigate market volatility and remain opportunistic when deploying capital. Importantly, the Plains transaction was structured to preserve our investment-grade credit ratings, reflecting that continued discipline. In the near term, leverage is expected to move modestly above our target range. We expect to return within our target range around the end of 2027.
Turning now to our investment criteria. We focus on strengthening and extending our integrated value chain. Capital is allocated to projects and acquisitions that grow stable fee-based cash flow, meet our return thresholds and are strategically aligned with our platform. We target returns in the range of 10% to 15% on a stand-alone basis with additional upside through integration across our system.
And finally, returning cash to shareholders. Our ability to sustainably grow the dividend is supported by 3 factors: the growth of fee-based cash flow, a strong balance sheet and a conservative payout ratio of 50% to 70% of distributable cash flow. Following the closing of the Plains transaction, we expect to be at the low end of that range, providing capacity for future dividend growth.
Dividend decisions are made by the Board on a quarterly basis. I will now move to our 2026 financial guidance. For 2026, we are providing the following guidance. We expect continued growth in fee-based EBITDA, consistent with the outlook we have discussed. Growth capital is expected to range from $550 million to $625 million, primarily directed toward advancing our major projects. Maintenance capital is expected to be between $240 million and $260 million, and cash taxes are expected to be between $70 million and $90 million.
With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. To close out, there are 4 key points that I'd like to leave you with. First, we have a proven track record of disciplined execution, financial discipline and long-term value creation. Second, with the Plains acquisition, we are entering the next phase of growth and value creation with a larger, more competitive platform.
Third, the growth outlook we have outlined today is highly visible, supported by tangible projects and existing commercial agreements already underway with additional upside potential still to be captured. And finally, we'll continue applying the same financial and execution discipline that has defined Keyera over time as we focus on creating long-term value for both our customers and shareholders.
We look forward to providing a more comprehensive update on our expected synergies, growth outlook, cash flow quality and expanded marketing platform around the end of the year.
I'll now turn it back over to the operator for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Aaron MacNeil with TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
You've outlined a number of potential capital-light or capital-efficient growth opportunities. Can you speak to the potential quantum of the opportunity in terms of total capital that you have visibility to and the potential range of build multiples that you'd expect across those opportunities?
Thanks very much for your question. I'll just turn this over to Eileen in a minute here. But the first thing I want to point out is that, yes, we have some great growth opportunities, which obviously are going to be available. We want to see more and more of that as the basin grows. But at the same time, we also want to point out that in addition to the guidance that we provided for the next 12 months of synergies that we expect to capture, we certainly believe that we are going to identify synergies above that, that will also help deliver more growth to our EBITDA and cash flow per share.
And we just closed this transaction, the Plains acquisition a month ago. So we're still getting up to speed and getting more information on the magnitude of those opportunities. But we believe that those will likely be the most capital efficient -- basically the lowest hanging fruit in the company, and we will pursue that with as much urgency as possible. But outside of that, I think, do you want to comment on the capital-efficient growth opportunities?
Yes. I think the only thing I would add to what you said, Dean, is that any opportunities will follow our existing investment approval process. And again, as we said before, we target that 10% to 15% return on capital on a stand-alone basis. And based on the projects that we have sanctioned, we've been well within that range, again, stand-alone. So then when you look at things on an integrated basis, the returns are just that much stronger.
Got you. And then maybe sort of the follow-on question to sort of get at this from a different perspective. Between now and 2029, how would you characterize your balance sheet capacity that you could deploy towards incremental growth projects, taking into account both your leverage targets, and sort of, a normal cadence of dividend increases?
Yes. Thanks, Aaron. Yes. So I think as you -- we noted in the presentation, the first priority is to bring our balance sheet back within our targeted range. And based on our forecast, which, again, has a very -- is more conservative view on our marketing performance. So we have the opportunity to delever, I think, quicker than what is that end of 2027 time frame.
In terms of the way we even financed the Plains transaction was to be able to be flexible so that when opportunities do arise, we have the ability to lean into those opportunities. So again, Simonette East is a great example. In December, we were able to -- that opportunity came, we were able to execute on that. And that has immediate cash flow. And when there is those types of acquisitions, those are great. They tend to be very neutral or even sometimes positive to the balance sheet. So those are things that we will continue to look at. But again, it's always going to be a competition for capital, and we're always going to lean into the things that add the most value across the value chain.
Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi.
I want to go back to the growth projects quickly. Dean, you mentioned several opportunities. And I think you put them in the context of beyond 2029. But I'm curious if you also see opportunities within that '29 time frame, specifically thinking about some potential low-hanging fruit, as you called it, related to these newly acquired assets that maybe could lead to some upside to the outlook you provided today.
Yes, it probably wasn't clear in articulating my comments there. Certainly, the guidance that we provided, the $120 million to $140 million extends out to the -- for 12 months essentially, so into 2027. Beyond that, we do see more opportunities for more synergies. And we haven't provided guidance on that yet. Again, we have to -- people have to understand that we had to operate both companies as separate entities right until close.
We weren't privy to a lot of the details of contracts and things like that until we close. So now that we have all that information in hand, we're just getting up to speed as to the details and nitty-gritty behind it. What I'd say is that when you think about the 3 different buckets of synergies that we identified right from day 1, from June of 2025 when we closed the transaction -- or we announced the transaction, the 3 different buckets of corporate cost savings, the cost efficiencies and the commercial synergies, what I would say is that after the first month, what we see is opportunities greater than what we would have modeled and identified when we put our initial numbers together.
And I would say that the probability of being able to capture those synergies is probably higher than what we would have originally modeled as well. So we feel very confident about what this is going to translate in terms of value creation for our shareholders. We just won't be able to quantify that in greater detail until probably closer to the end of the year.
Got you. And sorry if I misspoke, that was helpful. It's actually my second question. But I guess what I was getting at was more around growth projects. You had identified a few expansion projects that I think you sort of highlighted as beyond 2029. I guess what I was curious about was -- could anything sneak inside this time frame within 2029 from a growth perspective that maybe leads to upside on the outlook today?
Well, I think that growth projects, I mean, other than small, like, again, on the Plains side, we think that there's going to be small growth opportunities. Keep in mind that they've been capital starved for quite some time. So we think that there are some low capital, high-return projects that we'll be able to pursue within that time line. But anything significant, if we were to acquire -- or sorry, build a new gas plant or things like that, it would largely fall out of that 2029 window, just given the amount of time it takes to complete all the engineering and feed work on it and actually construct the asset. So -- and Eileen, do you want to just comment what's actually in our guidance so far based on our revised outlook out to 2029...
Yes, absolutely. Yes, I do want to reiterate, we are providing industry-leading fee-based growth that really reflects our base case. It includes the projects that are already underway, the synergies that we just updated to that $120 million to $140 million that we feel is quite conservative as well as the regular ramp on KAPS. What it does not include is any unsanctioned growth or synergies beyond that $140 million. So when you layer on that with a positive macro outlook, I think our fee-based growth out to 2029 is quite conservative. And I think the last thing I would say is that the growth is 100% on strategy. It is all about enhance, extend our NGL value chain.
Got it. That's helpful. That's exactly what I was looking to get. Maybe just second quick one, kind of a tag along to Aaron's earlier question. But as you think about M&A, obviously, you've just completed this transaction and want to digest it. Balance sheet, I think you mentioned late '27 is kind of when it comes back within target. But as you think about small bolt-on, maybe tuck-in type M&A, are you out of the market until that time? Or do you feel like the balance sheet has got enough flex to keep you in it?
Yes, that's a good question. I mean, obviously, our focus is on just continuing to integrate and capture synergies of planes. And certainly, we see a lot of -- as I mentioned, a lot of low-hanging fruit there. As Eileen mentioned that we expect to delever throughout the end of 2027 and get within our 2.5 to 3x range which provides more flexibility.
So we always want to make sure that we maintain a strong balance sheet. But again, we also look for opportunity at the same time. So I think that any opportunities that we might pursue would have to be just highly strategic, high-value opportunities that would be incremental to what we've just done. Yes, as Eileen said, though, it'd definitely have to be on strategy and really creating value to our integrated system.
Your next question comes from Sam Burwell with Jefferies.
I wanted to unpack the upside Plains synergies just a little bit more. It seems like these could be a benefit to the existing '27 to '29 CAGR. But curious like how much of these synergies would require no CapEx versus some of these like highly synergistic capital projects that you've called out so far?
That's hard to quantify right now. Thanks for the question, Sam. That's really -- we need more time to sort of quantify that. I've talked to a number of our leaders already in the first month from different groups that are in charge of running these assets. And what I can say is they're capturing synergies on the fly. I mean they're seeing opportunities that we wouldn't have identified before and they're just capturing on the fly as they go.
So there's going to be a period where we have to aggregate what that all translates to. At the same time, there's going to be some opportunities that require a bit of engineering, which will require some capital, and we'll have to, again, with time, quantify that. I'd say there's also commercial synergies, some that we can probably capture ourselves.
So some of that might be waiting until next April for, let's say, the propane contracting season and things like that, how we would structure contracts versus how -- what we inherited from Plains. Some of it also involves having to work with third parties to capture commercial opportunities. So we have to work with other third parties to understand how feasible they would be.
So I just want to make sure that people walk away with the notion that we see a tremendous amount of opportunity. It's just going to take a bit more time to, again, quantify in the way the market would probably want to learn more about it.
Okay. Got it. Understood. And then the next question ties to both marketing and maintenance CapEx. So you called out the Empress turnaround. Just curious if you could maybe quantify what that means for maintenance CapEx, so we have a better idea of run rate going forward? And then I guess between that and more broadly on marketing, like what sort of uptime are you assuming across the -- all the assets that contribute to marketing for the rest of the year?
Yes, Sam, I'll pass that over to Eileen, and she'll respond to your question.
As it relates to the Empress outage, so that is expected to be in that Q3, Q4 time frame. And it is expected to be several weeks in duration, and that is built into our updated maintenance capital guidance that we provided. Typically, the straddles are every -- so there's 5 straddles at Empress and each one has a maintenance outage every 10 years, and this is a larger one for Empress 6 as well as the fractionation also having the turnaround as well.
In terms of our -- and then also the KFS North, so that's the old PFS facility, I do want to point out that, that also will be going down for several weeks in the third quarter as -- that's mainly to bring on the frac debottleneck. So that's exciting. The one thing I do want to point out is that this is the benefit of having the 2 platforms together. It does benefit the customer because we are able to mitigate some of the outage impacts to our customers by providing them with the C3+ storage.
So Plains, the PFS site on its own does not have C3+ storage. So this is just another benefit to having the 2 platforms together. As we look at the marketing, we really step back and look at the year, I think the 3 key most impactful items were, of course, on our side, the legacy Keyera marketing was the outage at AEF that was very impactful. As the facilities come up in early June, it does take time for those sales to start to recognize those sales and as they go into their final destination.
So the second quarter, I would expect to be weak. The other pieces of the marketing guidance for 2026 are related to the Plains part of the business. So one is, as you are aware, we have the 12-month hedge with Plains to protect our downside. But also there wasn't -- for a certain amount of volumes, there wasn't much upside as well. So I think that's important to know that we did lock it in and it was prudent to do so. So now we're about 90% hedged.
And the other thing I would note on the Plains part of the business is that it tends to be -- it's very seasonal because it's mostly propane sales. So you have 1/3 in the first quarter, 1/3 in the fourth quarter and then the balance in the second and third quarter. So of course, the mid-May close would have an impact as well.
So as we look at potential catalysts for upside, it is those premiums for iso-octane as we really get into the summer months. It is potentially more volumes through the East Gate that are available to be straddled. And the other would be as we get into the winter, potential better premiums for propane, whether it is the Far East index or volumes going to the East.
Your next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC.
I'm wondering just with respect to risk management, having more marketing exposure, how does that impact your risk management philosophy? And is there an opportunity to keep the same value-at-risk but hedge more frac spread relative to iso-octane because it's not possible to hedge those premiums anyway. And by overweighting frac spread hedges, you could lower the basis risk and outage risk associated with AEF.
Rob, thanks for the question. And I'll turn that over to Eileen, too. But I just want to say that I'm very pleased that with the hedge that we put in place with Plains, and the subsequent hedges that we locked in since closing in the last month or so. I'm very pleased that we have a large proportion of that frac spread locked up for the remainder of 2026. And as you heard, about 50% in 2027. So again, that gives us a lot of certainty in our capability to be able to delever our balance sheet and preserve that -- restore that financial flexibility. But I think do you want to talk about our risk management strategy?
Yes, absolutely. I would say, overall, Robert, our risk management strategy doesn't really change. And that's really how we got comfortable with introducing a frac spread business to our marketing as well because it is, again, it's the AECO, which we would normally hedge as well in our existing business, but certainly to a far larger extent now. And then it's the corresponding natural gas liquids, propane in particular, so -- and FX as well.
So those are things that we're already very used to as part of our program. And then in terms of, yes, the frac spread and how that might change between how we hedge versus maybe take some potential exposures. I think as it relates to the frac spreads, we're going to be very, very prudent. And so just even saying that as we saw those spreads really kind of improve and widen into even next year, we have locked in more than 50% of our exposures into next year.
And I think, again, we feel like that's the prudent thing to do. And I would say that those spreads are at a better rate than what we would have included in our deal thesis. So we feel good about that. In terms of iso-octane, I don't think a lot changes there. Obviously, as you know, the premium is something that cannot be hedged anyway. As for the RBOB cracks, again, with all of the volatility that we saw this year, we really saw those RBOB cracks even into next year, even a little bit into 2028 really wide and very, very strong cracks. So we've been layering those into next year as well. So again, overall, we think we're really set up well for next year into 2027.
Okay. That's very good context. And then my second question was just on capital allocation. So acknowledging that your capital allocation priorities haven't -- they're largely unchanged here. How are you approaching dividend growth given that you've seen a step change in fee-based EBITDA and there's a high level of synergy capture already and you're hinting to future upside and you have a strong hedge book.
I know you don't pay out on the marketing income, but it seems like you have at minimum a step change in the EBITDA and some pretty good synergy capture and maybe some upside and you've derisked the business. So what's management's current thinking about a dividend increase, the next dividend increase? Are you going to do -- just keep to the smaller sustainable increase? Or is there an opportunity for something larger here?
Eileen, do you want to answer that?
Sure. Yes, Robert, I mean, I would, as you said, take it back to our capital allocation priorities. It is balance sheet back within target. That's the #1 priority. And then it's how to allocate to those highest value growth opportunities. And Dean has talked about many of them organic, inorganic. The goal is to continue to grow that fee-based cash flow. And you can do, as you said, have very, very strong fee-based EBITDA growth.
But ultimately, it is based on distributable cash flow, and we want to make sure that, that dividend is sustainable for the long term. And we want -- we really are targeting that payout at the lower end of the target range. But again, we -- as you saw from the presentation, we are very proud of that long history of dividend growth. So those are some of the principles that we think about. But ultimately, the timing and the amount would be important...
Yes. And just maybe to emphasize what Eileen is saying, Rob, is that right now, obviously, we've stretched our balance sheet a bit to the higher end of our limit. So our first priority is going to be to bring it back in line, which, again, we expect to happen by the end of 2027. And second of all, we see this as a really great environment to reinvest in infrastructure, just given what we're seeing in the basin and the amount of growth that we see. So there's going to be a lot of infrastructure that will be required to enable that growth, and we're well positioned to capture a lot of market share there.
The next question comes from a -- your next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets.
I wanted to break down your assumptions for 2027 and 2029 outlook a little bit. And specifically, can you discuss where in your value chain do you see the greatest competition for volumes and margin? And how do your outlook assumptions reflect this competition?
Maurice, maybe I'll start with that. And I'd say that a lot of our growth is contracted. And so we're going to see that growth and those contracts step up over time. So some of that relates to our GP volumes, some of it relates to the volumes on our KAPS system and the contracts that we signed there. They do ramp up over time. And the amount of growth that we see in our condensate system.
So overall, a lot of it is contracted, but it probably doesn't mean that we go super aggressive in capturing a significant amount of market share. A lot of that is all stuff that is within our reach already. I think that for us to go above and beyond, I mean, I think that's where you start sanctioning perhaps a new gas plant or you get into expansions of Simonette and Wapiti, which we think are probably realistic outcomes just given the amount of growth that we see in the basin, plus some of the activity that we see around those facilities, which is very exciting. But Eileen, do you want to -- have anything else you want to add?
No, I think you said it, Dean. It's largely we're well contracted, and even in the gathering processing, more than 70% of our margins coming from the north -- the Montney gas plant. So long-term contracts there throughout the value chain. So I don't really see a lot of volume risk in our base case EBITDA guidance.
And if I could finish with my second question about your assumptions on portfolio as well as synergies. Can I just confirm that the outlook for 2029 and also how you approach all these synergies includes all of your current Keyera and Plains assets as you have it today?
Yes. Are you suggesting -- Yes, of course, everything is on our 100%. We own and operate the full platform, correct.
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny with National Bank.
Update. Just on the back of the ACE Rail Terminal investment, we're hearing more and more about demand for Western Canadian ethane be exported off the West Coast, the West Coast into Asian markets. I'm just curious what sort of opportunities that could present for the integrated platform here, whether it's on the rail side, fractionation or even within the marketing group?
Thanks for the question, Pat. First of all, we're very excited about the ACE terminal. I mean it's going to give us, I think, the best access out of the industrial heartland with our unit-train facility to get barrels to the West Coast and certainly the partnership with AltaGas and CN Rail, those are the right 2 partners to be working with. We like the terminal because we need a solution for propane. But once it's built, it's going to be easier to expand from there to include other products.
And one of those products, as you mentioned, could be ethane. And with our asset base now, we're going to be a much -- we are a much larger player in the ethane market. So you think about our de-ethanizer at Fort Saskatchewan, our de-ethanizer at Rimbey and then obviously, the straddle facilities that we have at Empress. When you add all that up, we have a lot of flexibility in ethane supply.
And we do have extra ethane supply at Empress right now that we're rejecting because we have a surplus that's uncontracted. So the supply cost of supplying ethane to ultimately be exported to the West Coast is already in our system without us having to invest more capital. So it's something that we're interested in. I think that it's going to take a while to develop an opportunity like that if it actually does get developed. But it's certainly something that we're looking into amongst other opportunities for ethane.
Got it. Okay. And then maybe just double-clicking on the Empress and Sarnia opportunities there. I guess if we do see an expansion of the TC Mainline as part of the proposed settlement there, if you could just speak to potential upside, whether it's volumes or debottlenecking straddles at Empress or perhaps storage down at Sarnia, what that could mean for the eastern assets that you've acquired?
Yes, that's a really good question. First of all, we are operating above our sanction case in terms of volumes that are flowing through Empress already. We have about a Bcf of extra capacity to straddle more gas there, so without further investment. So we do see opportunity there. We think that volumes are going to continue to increase through Empress naturally. And it's just because of all the natural gas demand for data centers, more gas or more export capacity for LNG out of the U.S. Gulf Coast and also the Bakken solution gas declining over time as well.
So all of that bodes well for increased volumes, again, going east. And we're also seeing that TC is, as you mentioned, is adding more capacity to go East -- some of the pipes that were derated 10 or 20 years ago, they're basically re-rating them to accommodate more gas. So I think that's all positive. It means that we'll get more product over time.
It's a volume times margin gain. And we like our opportunities out East as well to perhaps capture more market share out there because, again, there has been a lack of investment in infrastructure, whether it's a truck or rail infrastructure or storage. We think there might be opportunities there to make some investments to expand our capacity out there to serve a greater market.
Okay. That's great color. And last one, if I could. Eileen, you mentioned that the any additional sanction growth would be upside to the 7% to 8% CAGR. Can you just confirm what the annual self-funded growth capital target would be out to 2029?
Again, that -- it really doesn't include any unsanctioned capital. It's really what we've already got in the hopper. And I also do want to reiterate that the synergies, that $120 million to $140 million doesn't include really any capital associated with that either. So again, as we begin to delever, we will have the capacity. We see lots of opportunities to continue to grow and extend that growth rate beyond 2029. And again, we will provide more updates towards the end of the year.
There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Tyler for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining us today. Feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team for any additional questions. Have a great rest of your day. Thank you.
Keyera — Keyera Corp., 2026 Guidance/Update Call, Jun 15, 2026
Keyera — Shareholder/Analyst Call - Keyera Corp.
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. Before we begin, Keyera acknowledges and is grateful for the histories, cultures and traditions of the First Nations, Inuit and Metis peoples, that are embedded in the treaty and traditional lands of Canada. We thank the original inhabitants for these lands, generations past, present and future for sharing your homelands with us.
Welcome, everyone. My name is Jim Bertram, and I am the Chair of Keyera's Board of Directors. Thank you for joining us today for our 2026 Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders. We are holding the meeting in person and online applying technology by allowing virtual participation to make the meeting more relevant, accessible and engaging for all involved, permitting a broader base of shareholders to participate regardless of their geographic location.
Today, I'm joined by Dean Setoguchi, Keyera's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Christy Elliott, Keyera's General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. I'm also joined by Eileen Marikar, Keyera's Chief Financial Officer, who is available to answer any questions. Our 2026 director nominees and Keyera's executive team as well as representatives Deloitte LLP, Keyera's independent auditors are also attending today's meeting in person or virtually.
Before beginning the formal part of the meeting, I wish to take a few moments on behalf of the Board to acknowledge two individuals who have been instrumental to Keyera and its success. I wish to acknowledge Thomas O'Connor and Gianna Manes, who are not standing for reelection to the Board at this meeting. On behalf of the Board, we wish to extend our deepest appreciation and sincere gratitude to Tom and Gianna for their many contributions as directors, including Gianna acting as Chair of our Human Resources Committee, and Tom acting as a member of the Audit Committee and the HSE Committee. I wish to thank you both for your service as directors and extend our best wishes to you and your families in the future.
I will now ask Christy to take us through the details of the meeting.
Thank you, Jim. Welcome to our shareholders and all other guests attending the meeting this morning. Today, we are joined in person and online by our Board of Directors. As Jim noted, Thomas O'Connor and Gianna Manes are not standing for reelection. In addition, Renee Zemljak is standing for election to the Board for the first time at this meeting. All remaining current directors, including our Chair, Jim Bertram, have been nominated by the Board for election at this meeting. Our nominated directors standing for election are: Jim Bertram, Isabelle Brassard, Michael Crothers, Blair Goertzen, Tim Kitchen, Bob Pritchard, Charlene Ripley, Dean Setoguchi, Janet Woodruff, Renee Zemljak.
We will conduct today's meeting in three parts. First, we will complete the business portion of the meeting. During this portion, shareholders will have the opportunity to vote and submit questions on each item of business described in our notice of meeting. Following the business portion, our President and CEO, Dean Setoguchi, will provide a brief presentation and business update on Keyera. The final portion of the meeting will consist of a question-and-answer session to address inquiries that have been submitted online. We remind you that only shareholders and proxy holders who are attending in person or who have logged on to the meeting using their 12-digit control number are able to vote today. These shareholders and proxy holders may vote on any and all business items at any time during the business portion of the meeting.
Thank you to those shareholders who voted prior to the meeting. If you voted in advance and do not wish to change your vote, there's nothing further you need to do. If you wish to change your vote, you can submit your vote using the paper proxy or online during the meeting. This action will have the same effect as revoking your previously submitted proxy. For those attending online, instructions on how to vote will appear on your screens. Voting polls will remain open until the conclusion of the business portion of the meeting.
Shareholders and proxy holders may also submit questions at any time during the meeting. If you're attending online and wish to submit a question, please select the messaging tab and enter your comment or question in the ask a question box. You may submit a question at any time from now until the conclusion of the Q&A portion of the meeting. We will endeavor to address as many of the questions submitted as we can. Unanswered questions will be addressed on our website at keyera.com shortly after the meeting.
I would also like to remind you that some of the statements made in this meeting may be considered forward-looking. We encourage you to review the cautionary statements and other information contained in our filings on SEDAR, which outline a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements made during the meeting. Copies of these filings are available on our website at keyera.com or on SEDAR at sedarplus.ca. As the virtual component of this meeting depends on technology, we appreciate your patience in the event we need to pause or experience technical issues.
I will now invite our Board Chair, Jim Bertram, to call the meeting to order.
Thank you, Christy. It is now shortly after 10:00 a.m. Mountain Time on May 14, 2026. This meeting is officially called to order. As provided in our bylaws, I will act as Chairman of this meeting. Christy Elliott will act as Secretary and Nazim Nathoo of Odyssey Trust has been appointed to act as scrutineer. We'll now deal with the business items specified in the notice of the meeting. Voting on these items will be conducted by poll. You may vote on all or any one of the business items at any time prior to closing of the polls. I now declare voting to be open on all resolutions.
I will now ask Christy to lead us through each of these business items. Christy?
Thank you, Jim. I can confirm on April 14, 2026, the Notice of Meeting, related circular and form of proxy were mailed to shareholders of record as of March 26, 2026. The scrutineers' report shows that a quorum of shareholders is present for the transaction of business at this meeting. A copy of the scrutineer's report, along with an affidavit confirming the mailing of the notice of meeting and related meeting materials will be filed with the records of today's meeting.
With respect to the formal business portion of the meeting, I will read each business item. We will then pause briefly to enable shareholders and proxy holders an opportunity to vote and to confirm whether any related questions have been submitted. Where a question has been received on a specific business item, we will seek to address it at that time. Questions of a more general nature will be addressed during the Q&A portion of the meeting. As Jim noted, voting for all business items is now open. Voting will remain open until the last item of business has concluded, and voting is declared to be closed. Certain shareholders have volunteered to move or second motions in respect of each business item. I will call on these individuals at the appropriate time. Preliminary voting results have been received and will be announced at the conclusion of the formal business portion of the meeting.
The first item of business is to receive the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025. The financial statements have been approved by the Board of Directors and previously mailed to shareholders. I confirm we have received no questions on the financial statements. As no shareholder vote is required or proposed with respect to the financial statements, I will proceed to the next item.
The second item of business is the election of directors. The Board has fixed the number of directors to be elected at this meeting at 10. Accordingly, there are 10 directors nominated for election at this meeting. Information about each of our 10 director nominees is provided on Pages 25 through 46 of our circular. Shareholders have the ability to vote for or withhold from voting for each individual director nominee. In accordance with the advance notice provisions of our bylaws. The only persons nominated to stand for election at this meeting are the director nominees set forth in our circular. As there are no further nominations, I declare the nominations closed.
May I please have a motion on this item?
My name is [ Jerry Kubick, ] and I'm a shareholder, and I move that each of Jim Bertram, Isabelle Brassard, Michael Crothers, Blair Goertzen, Tim Kitchen, Bob Pritchard, Charlene Ripley, Dean Setoguchi, Janet Woodruff and Renee Zemljak be hereby elected directors of Keyera Corp. to hold the office until the next annual meeting of the shareholders or until their respective successors have been appointed.
My name is Brandon Wood. I'm a shareholder, and I second the motion.
Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I confirm we have received no questions on the election of directors. Shareholders and proxy holders are invited to submit their vote now if you've not already done so.
The next item involves the appointment of Deloitte LLP chartered professional accountants as Keyera's independent auditors for the upcoming year. The Board of Directors recommends the appointment of Deloitte LLP as auditor.
May I please have a motion on this matter?
My name is [ Jerry Kubick. ] I'm a shareholder, and I move that Deloitte LLP, chartered professional accountants, be appointed auditors of Keyera to hold the office until the next Annual Meeting of Shareholders at such remuneration as shall be fixed by the Board of Directors.
My name is [ Brandon Wood. ] I am a shareholder, and I second the motion.
Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I confirm we have received no questions on the appointment of auditors. Shareholders and proxy holders may submit their vote now if they have not already done so.
The next item involves the reconfirmation and approval of Keyera's shareholder rights plan. The shareholder rights plan was last approved by shareholders at our May 9, 2023, Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The shareholder rights plan must be approved by shareholders every 3 years. The full text of this resolution is set out on Page 23 of our circular. The Board of Directors recommends that the shareholders approve this resolution.
May I please have a motion?
My name is [ Jerry Kubick. ] I'm a shareholder, and I move that the resolution set out on Page 23 of the circular with respect to Keyera's shareholder rights plan be approved.
My name is [ Brandon Wood. ] I am a shareholder, and I second the motion.
Thank you. And Mr. Chairman, I confirm we've received no questions on this item. Shareholders and proxy holders may submit their vote now if they have not already done so.
The last item of business is an advisory vote on Keyera's approach to executive compensation, commonly referred to as say on pay. The full text of this advisory resolution is set out at Page 24 of our circular. The Board of Directors recommends shareholders vote to approve this resolution. I will now ask for a motion on this matter.
My name is [ Jerry Kubick. ] I am a shareholder, and I move that the ordinary resolution set out on Page 24 of the circular with respect to Keyera's approach to executive compensation be approved.
My name is [ Brandon Wood. ] I am a shareholder, and I second the motion.
Thank you. And Mr. Chairman, I can confirm we've received no questions on this item. We invite shareholders and proxy holders to submit their vote now if you have not already done so.
As this is the last item of business before the conclusion of the formal portion of the meeting. For those who have not voted on all resolutions, please do so now.
[Voting]
Jim, I confirm that the shareholders have now had an opportunity to vote.
Thank you, Christy. As everyone has now had an opportunity to vote, I now declare the voting polls for the meeting to be closed.
Christy, I would ask you please read the preliminary voting results of the meeting.
Thank you, Jim. I have received the scrutineer's report and can confirm that the preliminary voting results are as follows: Each of the 10 nominated directors have been elected with an average support of over 96% of shares voted or represented at the meeting. Deloitte LLP have been duly appointed as Keyera's auditors for the upcoming year with average support of 82.73% of shares voted or represented at the meeting. The shareholder rights plan, reconfirmation and approval resolution has been duly approved with support of over 96.32% of shares voted or represented at the meeting. Finally, the say-on-pay advisory resolution has been duly approved with support of over 96.53% of shares voted or represented at the meeting. Final voting results be filed on our website as well as SEDAR as soon as practical after the meeting.
Thank you, Christy. As that now concludes the formal business of the meeting. I now declare the formal business portion of the meeting to be terminated.
I would like to turn the meeting over to Keyera's President and Chief Executive Officer, Dean Setoguchi, who will provide a brief management presentation. Dean's presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session to address inquiries submitted during the meeting. You may continue to submit questions in the online platform until conclusion of the question-and-answer session or ask questions in person. Dean?
Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending today's event. Before we begin, I want to take a moment to thank retiring directors, Tom O'Connor and Gianna Manes for their contributions and service over the last several years. Tom joined our Board in 2014, and Gianna joined our Board in 2017, and their insight, expertise and thoughtful guidance have helped shape Keyera into what it is today. It's been a privilege to work alongside them and their contributions to Keyera will be felt for years to come. I want to welcome our newly elected Director, Renee Zemljak. We're fortunate to have such an accomplished individual join our Board, and I look forward to working with Renee as we continue to grow and move Keyera forward.
Before I get started, please note the forward-looking information and non-GAAP financial measures on the screen. This information is also available on our website, and I'll spare you from reading all that.
I'll kick it off with Keyera's strategic priorities, which are on the right side of the slide, starting with financial discipline, which has always been a core focus of ours. We prioritized maintaining a strong balance sheet, and our investment criteria is focused on growing stable fee-for-service cash flows, which, in turn, support attractive shareholder returns.
Next, we drive competitiveness of our assets through a focus on safe, reliable operations, combined with the competitive cost structure. Next, we strengthen our integrated value chain by extending our asset footprint and providing greater access to high-value markets for customers. And lastly, long-term sustainability is embedded in our strategy. We proactively manage risk, reduce environmental impact and maintain strong collaborative stakeholder relationships. To execute our strategy, Keyera focuses on three priorities, which are safety, competitiveness and growth, seen here on the left side of the slide. Each year, we set goals under each priority to advance our strategy. These goals align our alignment across the organization with each team setting objectives that support our three priorities. This focus enables measurable progress in delivering our strategy year after year.
2025 is a great example of our disciplined execution. So let me highlight the key achievements that advanced our strategy. We sanctioned the Frac II debottleneck and KFS Frac III expansion, further strengthening our Frac platform and highly contracted long-term capacity additions. We executed a commercial agreement with AltaGas to extend our value chain and provide diversified access to international markets in Asia, helping deliver stronger netbacks for our customers. We also sanctioned KAPS Zone 4, expanding our pipeline network to access growing liquids-rich Montney production in Northeast BC and Northwest Alberta under long-term contracts. And of course, the transformational acquisition of Plains' Canadian NGL business. This deal makes us more efficient, extends our integrated value chain into Eastern Canada and the U.S. and creates a platform for accelerated capital-efficient growth.
We also completed the Simonette Gas Plant acquisition for approximately $200 million, adding approximately 68 million cubic feet per day of processing capacity. And divested -- we divested the non-core Wildhorse terminal to recycle capital into higher return opportunities. Together, these actions reflect disciplined execution and meaningful progress against our strategy. Keyera continues to have a strong focus on the management of long-term risks. This is partly achieved through our sustainability program.
Last year, we announced that we achieved our 2025 greenhouse gas emissions intensity target 1 year early. We realized a 28% reduction from our 2019 baseline exceeding our goal of a 25% reduction. Absolute emissions are also down 9% over the same period. On governance, 40% of our senior leaders and 40% of our independent directors are female, and our Board committees are 100% independent. And say-on-pay support has averaged 97% over the last three years. You can see along the top of the slide some third-party recognition, which reinforces our progress.
Financial discipline has long been a part of Keyera's DNA, and our capital allocation framework reflects that commitment. Our priority is the strength of the balance sheet. We exit 2025 below the bottom end of our leverage target and continue to maintain an investment-grade credit rating. After that, we balance deploying capital between reinvesting in our fee-for-service business and returning value to shareholders. We have a long history of sustainable dividend growth, and we once again increased the dividend by 4% this past year.
We aim to allocate capital in a manner that creates the most value for shareholders. Keyera at its core is a service-oriented company and delivering value to our customers is central to everything that we do. Our differentiated liquids supply and market access directly enhance customer netbacks, giving producers a compelling reason to choose Keyera. By continually driving competitiveness across our services, we're able to offer superior value which in turn strengthens our customer relationships and increases throughput volumes across our integrated platform.
Our Marketing segment further reinforces this value proposition by working alongside customers to seek the highest possible netback, ensuring our services are fully aligned with their preferences. Ultimately delivering more value for customers translates into delivering more value for our shareholders. This chart tells a powerful story and highlights our successful track record. Since 2008, Keyera's delivered a 7% compound annual growth rate in distributable cash flow per share and a 6% CAGR in dividends per share.
Now what makes this remarkable is the consistency. We grew through the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 commodity price collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic without ever cutting our dividend. That resilience is driven by a fee-based business model that provides cash flow stability and disciplined capital allocation that has kept leverage consistently within target. Growing cash flow, growing dividends and a strong balance sheet is the value proposition we continue to deliver to shareholders.
Now let me turn to the transformative Plains' acquisition. We're thrilled to have closed the deal. This transaction is a natural extension of our strategy to extend our integrated value chain, enhances connectivity across our system and improves our ability to efficiently process, transport and market products. For our customers, the combined platform provides improved access to key markets, greater flexibility and increased reliability. It also represents an important step for Canada, bringing critical energy infrastructure under Canadian ownership and supporting the development of a more efficient NGL network.
Looking ahead, we will continue to enable basin growth by extending our integrated value chain in a disciplined and capital-efficient manner. The runway ahead remains significant, and we're confident our strategy will continue to deliver attractive long-term returns and sustainable growth.
Let me close with three takeaways. Keyera has a clear strategy focusing on strengthening and extending our integrated value chain. We continue to execute that strategy through disciplined capital allocation and highly strategic investments that improve connectivity, competitiveness and customer value. With a more efficient platform and a deep inventory of growth opportunities, we're well positioned to continue delivering sustainable, long-term growth and returns.
With that, I'll turn it back to Jim for Q&A.
Thank you, Dean. We will now open the question-and-answer session to respond to any questions submitted during the meeting. Christy, can you please read any questions that have been submitted during the meeting.
Jim, there have been no questions submitted during the meeting.
Thank you. Seeing as there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer period. On behalf of the board -- is there any questions in the room? I got a hand up here.
My name is [ Richard Blumhoff ] as of the date I was a shareholder. I don't know if I am right now. But what I was wondering about is, I'm a little concerned about swaps. Do you use swaps?
Thank you for that, Richard. Dean or Eileen, do you like to answer?
If you're talking about financial swaps for our hedging program, we do use financial instruments for us. We want to provide a stable cash flow with our marketing business. And so we basically market physical product. And what we aim to do is to make sure that we lock in margin. And sometimes, we incur hedging losses because of that. But again, what's important for us is to basically lock in and hedge a sustainable cash flow. And that's why we use different financial instruments to support that program. Thank you for your question, Richard.
There's another question, I believe.
Okay. My name is [ Bill Maneluk, ] and I am a shareholder.
Thank you for your support.
So I may have trouble formulating this question because it's based on the efficiency -- business efficiencies that you get with the combination with Plains' and whether they would outweigh any problems or concerns that there might be over any increase in charges that you might develop over -- with your customers, with your new business. This is related to the concerns with the Competition Bureau. Does that make sense?
Yes, I think I understand your question. First of all, we're in a process with the tribunal, so we can't speak directly to that. But what I can say is that we are a service company, and our focus is to deliver the most efficient, cost-effective, reliable service for our customers. And with this platform, we are going to be more cost efficient. We'll have more redundancy in our system. So if you look at our Frac complexes, whenever one complex is down, we have the assets that we can continue to allow product to flow and catch up on fracking and processing that product at a later time. So for producers, what we're trying to do is to maximize their cash flow. So the more we can provide that reliable service, the more profitable they'll be and the happier they're going to be. Our intention is not to increase prices. It's quite the opposite. We think that we'll have a more cost-effective operation and a lot of those costs flow through to our customers. So we believe that we'll be able to provide a service at a lower cost, not a higher cost than they received today. And at the same time, you know what a big part of our service is getting their NGLs to high-value markets. And with this cross-Canada NGL corridor and assets that we have now, we're going to be able to access those high-value markets more efficiently, which again will translate to higher value for our customers. Thank you for your question.
Any other questions from the audience? Not seeing any hands. I can now say that concludes our question-and-answer period. On behalf of the Board and management of Keyera, I wish to thank you for your participation today and for your continued support of Keyera. Thank you, and that terminates the meeting. Thanks.
Thank you.
Keyera — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. My name is Joelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Keyera's 2026 First Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thanks, and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO; Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President, Liquids Business Unit; and Brad Slessor, Senior Vice President, G&P and NGL Pipelines Business Unit. We will begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen, after which we will open the call to questions. I'd like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give today relate to future events.
These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and on our website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Two days ago, we successfully closed the acquisition of Plains' Canadian NGL business in its entirety. This is a transformative deal that materially expands Keyera's integrated platform. This transaction is a natural extension of our strategy to extend our integrated value chain. It enhances connectivity across our system and improves our ability to efficiently process, transport and market products.
For our customers, the combined platform provides improved access to key markets, greater flexibility and increased reliability. It also represents an important step for Canada, bringing critical energy infrastructure under Canadian ownership. It enhances Canadian energy security, supports economic resilience and establishes a stronger, more efficient across Canada NGL corridor. As previously disclosed, the Commissioner of Competition has filed an application with the Competition Tribunal in connection with the transaction.
As you can appreciate, this matter is now before the Tribunal, so we're limited in what we can say about this process. We are confident in the strength of our case and excited to demonstrate to our shareholders and to our stakeholders the strategic rationale and the value creation that will result from this transaction. Our focus now is on integration and capturing the synergies of the expanded system.
Turning to our quarterly results. We continue to execute on our strategy, building a more connected and efficient system to support our customers and strengthen our platform. In gathering and processing, we delivered a new quarterly record for realized margin, driven by record throughput at Wapiti and contributions from our recently acquired interest in the Simonette East gas plant. We also continue to advance our growth projects. The KFS Frac 2 debottleneck remains on schedule for completion by the end of June and is now expected to come in below budget. Frac 3 and KAPS Zone 4 continue to progress well, both on time and on budget. These projects are highly contracted and will continue to drive growth and stable fee-for-service cash flow, supporting the strength of our balance sheet and long-term dividend sustainability.
Now turning briefly to AEF. Following the previously announced outage, the repairs have been completed. We're also now completing the turnaround planned for the fall, eliminating the need for a separate shutdown later this year. The facility is expected to return to full operating capacity by the end of May. While the reliability of the asset has been below expectations, we recognize the importance of AEF to our business and the value it delivers.
During the outage, we completed a comprehensive review of the facility and its operating plan. As a result, we expect to enhance our maintenance strategy by supplementing the existing 4-year major turnaround cycle with a smaller planned outage between major turnarounds. Our objective is to maximize production of iso-octane during a 4-year cycle while ensuring safe and efficient operations.
With that, I'll turn it over to Eileen to walk through our financial results and outlook.
Thanks, Dean, and good morning, everyone. Keyera's first quarter results reflect continued strength in our fee-for-service business, which was offset by lower marketing contributions. Excluding transaction costs related to the Plains acquisition, adjusted EBITDA was $232 million and distributable cash flow was $133 million or $0.58 per share. Net earnings for the quarter were a loss of $122 million. In our fee-for-service segment, Gathering and Processing delivered record quarterly realized margin of $118 million. In Liquids Infrastructure, realized margin was $141 million. Results included record throughput across our condensate system, supported by continued growth in oil sands production.
Turning to the Marketing segment. Realized margin was $13 million for the quarter. The decrease compared to last year was primarily attributable to the AEF outage and corresponding butane risk management activities. We ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.2x, which remains below our long-term target range and provides continued financial flexibility. Following the completion of the NGL contracting season, we are providing 2026 Marketing segment realized margin guidance on a stand-alone basis. Marketing realized margin is expected to range between $210 million and $250 million, with the majority of contributions weighted towards the second half of the year. All other Keyera stand-alone guidance for growth capital, maintenance capital and cash taxes remain unchanged.
With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. Keyera continues to execute on a clear strategy to strengthen and extend our integrated value chain, building a more connected and efficient system that supports customer growth and improves access to key markets. With the closing of the Plains acquisition, we're entering into the next phase of growth for the company with an expanded platform that further enhances our ability to serve customers across the basin.
Looking ahead, we will remain focused on disciplined integration, continued execution of our growth projects and delivering long-term value for our customers and shareholders. On behalf of the Board and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support.
With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Rob Hope with Scotiabank.
2. Question Answer
I'd like some more color on the Competition Tribunal process. So you have 45 days to put in your application there. Can you maybe give us a little bit more incremental color on what the key themes that you would like to put forward to the Competition Bureau to state your case that the acquisition should close as filed as well as do you think it'll take the full 45 days? Or could you accelerate that?
Rob, thank you for the question. We're not in a position to speak more about what our position is. I just want to emphasize that we're very confident in the strength of our case. And again, because of the matters before the Tribunal, we're limited to what we can say. But with respect to the actual process, maybe I'll just turn it over to Eileen and she can speak to it in more detail.
Sure. Thanks, Rob. There's not too much incremental from what was already in Dean's opening remarks. The matter now will proceed through the Tribunal process. And it's an impartial and independent specialized court, which gives us the opportunity to have our case heard by a panel of judges and non-judge Tribunal members. And as Dean mentioned, we believe in our case and look forward to presenting it to the Tribunal. At this point, it's really too early to speculate on what the time line will be.
All right. I thought I'd try. Maybe moving over to the marketing guidance ex Plains. Can you maybe help us understand what commodity price assumptions are included in that, just given it is looking similar to kind of the prior guidance, yet the commodity pricing looks quite a bit different than before.
Thanks, Rob. I can take that one. So the guidance we did provide is on a stand-alone basis, and it does incorporate the AEF outage, which was approximately $110 million. I would say it's conservative at this point in time. It does include the impact of butane, which is lower than our 10-year average. So that's a positive. Certainly, there were some hedges that on the inventory where we took a loss in the front month, but we'll start to see that as we sell the inventory.
The one thing that, again, could be a tailwind to the guidance we put out is the iso-octane premiums. As you are aware, that's something that we cannot hedge. And so as AEF comes up and by the end of the month and we get into the summer driving period, that is a potential tailwind to the guidance that we provided. But largely in line with the assumptions that we had laid out, the hedges that were already in place, which is the $210 million to $250 million.
I think just to add on to Eileen's comments, Rob. Overall, we think that there is a more of a macro tailwind to our marketing business. I mean if you think about the situation at Strait of Hormuz, the longer that blockage lasts, it really puts a higher floor under the whole price complex for crude oil, natural gas, and also LPGs for a longer period of time. So we think that's positive for Frac spreads. We think that's positive for our octane business. And Eileen talked about the premiums. But obviously, if you look at the gasoline cracks, they're very strong as well and the underlying crude oil price is very high. So we think the forward prices for the rest of this year, I mean, we do have some hedges in place, but into 2027 as well. Those are positive tailwinds overall for our business.
Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi.
I want to start, Dean, with some of your closing comments there on the next phase of growth. You've got 3 major projects now sanctioned and under construction. If I think back, those projects are highly visible to you and us well into sanctioning them. Just curious, as you look beyond '28, how you're thinking about that next wave of expansions? And when do you think you'll be in a position to start communicating them?
Yes. Thank you for the question. First of all, what I would say is that speaking to the 3 major projects, they are progressing very well. Our team is doing an outstanding job of executing those projects. I mean nothing is done until they're done, but so far, they are progressing very well. We're very excited about the Plains acquisition, and when we think about how we add value for our customers and our shareholders, the lowest hanging fruit is going to be with the Plains assets.
And we've talked about $100 million of synergies, which we have very high conviction in, but we're seeing some really great opportunities well beyond the $100 million. And so we are going to capture that low-hanging fruit as fast as we possibly can. And we've been operating, obviously as separate companies until the last 2 days. So there is certainly a period of time that is going to require us to get further up to speed and some of the opportunities on their side and get more detail behind it. But we just think that there's a lot more upside than we had envisioned at the beginning when we signed this transaction. So I think that's very positive.
On top of that, I think it's great that we're hearing more positive momentum on LNG Canada Phase 2 and also crude oil export pipelines and adding more capacity from that front. So I think both from our gas gathering and processing perspective, there's going to be more of that required, which translates to more volumes down our KAPS pipeline and potentially downstream from there, but also our oil sands business. So I can see more capacity expansions around that. Maybe I can just turn it over to Brad and if you want to speak specifically to the gas gathering and processing side and maybe some other opportunities we see there.
Yes, sure. Thanks, Dean, and thanks for the question. I think on the gathering and processing side, we see really great activity progressing around our northern plants. You can see it in our volumes and in our quarterly results, including the new assets we've brought in. We see at both Simonette and Wapiti opportunity to debottleneck those facilities. And then we're starting to look at incremental things past those projects as well. And as Dean said, more gas processing comes with more liquids that need to make it down the value chain and all the way through the integrated chain. So we're excited to see what the basin will give us. And as Dean said, we see some of those tailwinds behind the basin as well.
Got it. That's great to hear. Second question, maybe just pivoting here to condensate a bit. It came up quite a few times on the last call, and that was, of course, before Iran. Since then, obviously, things on the macro side seem to have improved. There's potentially over 1 million barrels a day of crude egress being contemplated out of Canada. So just maybe want to get your latest views on how you're thinking about the impact to condensate and whether or not those volumes can unlock more expansions on your current footprint.
Yes, that's a really great question. I think a lot of people, when they think about crude oil, egress, I think it's fantastic that there'll likely be a lot more capacity built for crude export pipelines. But people have to remember that for every 2 barrels that you flow down the pipe, you need a barrel of diluent, which is the condensate to flow with it because the bitumen is so viscous. So that's really great for our business because we have the hub for condensate. I mean, roughly 2/3 of the condensate that flows up to the oil sands comes off our system. So that's our pipeline connectivity. That's our storage caverns. And we also have the Norlite pipeline that also delivers up to the oil sands. So that is a business that's in big demand, but I'll maybe just turn it over to Jamie to provide additional commentary.
Yes. Thanks, Dean. So I don't know what more I can add really other than we've anticipated this or positioned ourselves to be able to understand how our condensate system can be expanded in the most capital-efficient and time-efficient manner. And just to remind everybody as well that we do have an ownership in the Norlite pipeline, which is, in our minds, a very strategic pipeline that we're working with our partner to maximize the opportunities as we're looking at industries -- looking at expansions up in the oil sands area. So oil sands is often a part of our business that doesn't get focused on very much. It's a huge contributor to our business, and we see that there's a significant opportunity for growth.
Your next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets.
Congratulations on the closing of the transaction. I imagine we're going to get a more fulsome update at some point. But I'm wondering what you can tell us about the impact the Plains acquisition will have on that 7% to 8% fee-based growth CAGR you have. Obviously, there's going to be some uncertainty related to the Tribunal process. But on an as-is basis, what is your confidence level in that fee-based growth extending beyond the current forecast time line you've given?
Rob, thanks for your question. I just want to emphasize that we see a lot of synergy value with Plains. And -- but with that, I'll turn it over to Eileen, and she can maybe add some more color.
Thanks, Rob. We do plan to provide an updated guidance for probably around the mid- to late June time frame, and it will be a refreshed fee-based EBITDA growth rate, again, on the combined basis within the coming weeks. So we do want to give some time to actually operate the assets for a period of time, but we are really excited to provide you with that update. And just remember, our existing CAGR that goes out to 2027, and we've largely hit that. And that was really from filling white space, again, which we have done.
So now as we bring on all of these new projects that we're currently in the process of executing like Zone 4 and all of the Frac expansion, those come in, in '27, '28, those have very, very strong returns that will continue to improve that growth rate to the end of the decade as well as the synergies and the synergies beyond the $100 million that Dean just spoke about. So an update is coming shortly.
Okay. That's understandable. And then just on the synergy side, I wonder if you could describe the path to that full synergy capture. I'm thinking that there's -- we don't know what the outcome on the Tribunal process might be, of course. So like how do you go about capturing those synergies when there's some uncertainty as to what the final product might look like?
Yes. I mean, as I said before, we see a ton of synergies here. And we captured the majority of them on day 1. A lot of it is just the overhead. I mean, we're able to run this business more efficiently by combining together. When you look beyond that, we've talked about some of the synergies. There are certainly operating synergies. We're going to be able to apply our supply chain and procurement strategies across the entire entity and leverage our expanded size.
Our maintenance activities, our company will be spending north of $200 million a year in maintenance activities. So can we get better at that and more efficient at that? Absolutely. Jamie has talked about our railcar fleet and our logistics. We're going to be much more efficient with this cross-Canada corridor, NGL corridor, we're going to be able to deliver product to market more efficiently than in the past. So we'll need less railcars and things like that, which are very expensive.
On top of that, we do see some issues or opportunities where we can increase reliability. With the combined asset base, we have more redundancy in our system. So I think that can translate to more effective capacity overall, which is good for our customer and good for our shareholders. There's commercial opportunities, too. So when you add all that up, we believe that, that we should be able to deliver well beyond the $100 million of synergies that we put out there. And anything else you want to add, Jamie?
No, I think you nailed it.
Okay. Just a follow-up to the condensate questions then. I'm wondering if you had anything in terms of time lines or potential CapEx requirements for whatever solution you might have to expand that condensate system.
Yes. Well, I can speak to the time lines, and it's just consistent with what companies are communicating to the market around their -- the timing of their projects. But we fully expect that we'll be able to see some growth -- continued growth in that business in the '27, '28 time frame.
Your next question comes from Ben Pham with BMO Capital Markets.
You had a comment in the MD&A around the South region production growing by a couple of percent. I think the last time we've seen that basin grow at all for some time. Can you comment on the outlook you're expecting there? And any sort of impact you anticipate on your assets in the region?
Yes, thanks very much for the question. I'm going to turn that over to Brad.
I'm glad to get a question on the South. Our team has been working very, very hard on that asset base. In the last several years, they've really worked to transform the contract behind that asset base as well, and you're seeing that with the increased utilization, and we put much longer-term contracts into that asset than we've historically seen. In the past, a lot of that South Basin was really driven off of gas pricing. What we're seeing now is an increased uptake in Duvernay drilling with the West Shale Duvernay and Carrot Creek, and we're seeing those volumes working their way into our system. Those are also ultra liquids rich.
So we see those coming into some of our gas plants in the South, which are already connected into our value chain all the way to Fort Saskatchewan. Good example of that is our Rimbey gas plant. It's a large deep cut plant that's super well positioned to capture a lot of the gas that you're seeing coming out of the Duvernay play. And so we're very happy with how those assets are performing. We think that there's still lots of legs for that to keep on going.
Got it. And maybe to -- maybe going back on the business update and you think the mid- to late June time frame, is the focus really in extending that guidance CAGR time frame that you have there currently?
Yes, that is the idea to extend the CAGR to near the end of the decade.
Next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.
Going back to the tailwinds related to the iso-octane business and stemming from the global supply shock in liquids products, including premium gasoline. With the significant refining infrastructure sustaining physical damage in the Middle East, coupled with curtailed exports from major Asian suppliers, do you view this as a transient benefit, i.e., the elevated octane spreads we're seeing now would dissipate if when the Strait is fully open? Or do you view this as a more durable uplift to your iso-octane margins given your ability to ratably source feedstock and the reliability of supply? Does this factor into your commercial discussions related to this business at all?
Yes. You know what, that's a very good question, Theresa. And I'll turn it over to Jamie, but just maybe a couple of comments is that I think there are some elements that are very durable going forward. And part of it is, there is more refining capacity being shut down too in North America and mainly in California. So some of the markets that we serve in interior, the United States, they are now going to feed more gasoline to California to make up for that loss of production. So we think that's maybe net positive.
But what also is happening right now is that some of the naphtha crackers in Asia are shutting down and they're basically getting displaced with crackers that take a lighter-end feedstock. And those naphtha crackers, they produce more chemical octanes, which they do compete in the octane world on the -- off the water. So I think overall, with less octane supply, that should be a net tailwind for our octane premiums when you think about the trends going forward. So anyway, those are just some of the tailwinds that we see. But Jamie, I'm sure you have some more thoughts.
Yes. So maybe I can layer a little bit more on, and it's a great observation and a great question is that the one thing I'd mention as well is that I think the destruction of infrastructure and the timing of being able to repair that infrastructure is going to have ripple effects throughout a lot of different commodities. Certainly, that's impacted propane pricing as well and the longevity we see of elevated propane pricing. Dean touched on that, that's going to support our deal for export on the West Coast that we're stepping into with AltaGas in the 2028 time frame and just the fundamentals, but also Frac spreads that we're now assuming more exposure to with the Plains assets. But it's also impacting non-North American refinery capacity as well, specifically in Asia. And so as we think about the global flow of gasolines, we also see a pull out of North America to serve those markets. That's going to leave us a little short.
Dean has touched on the fact that we've got lower naphtha costs that ultimately are a primary feedstock for blending. And ultimately, you need octane to mix in that blending activity to be able to generate gasoline. So as we connect all those dots together, certainly, you've seen that in the RBOB crack or the gasoline crack pricing in '26 and '27. And you're also seeing that with respect to the octane demand and associated octane premiums that we're seeing unfold, not only in this summer driving season, but our expectation is going into '27 as well.
That's very helpful. And related to the AEF facility specifically, do you have an update on how the turnaround is progressing following the unplanned outage? Can you share some of the key learnings here? And in relation to the new maintenance strategy, what exactly are you planning to do during the smaller planned outages between major turnarounds that is supposed to enhance reliability of the asset? What does that work entail?
Yes. So great question. I can't really get into the specifics of the root cause of the outage that we incurred in January other than we did determine the root cause, and we're applying those learnings to ensure improved reliability go forward. To get to your question with respect to the shorter, we're calling it a pit stop in that -- in between our regular 4-year turnaround schedule. It's more around inspections and ensuring the integrity of equipment and making sure that we're being proactive with respect to our maintenance activities based on comparing condition of equipment relative to baselines to ensure that we're not reacting to things at AEF rather than we're being very proactive from our maintenance activities.
As we said before, our objective is to make as much octane over a 4-year cycle. And we've learned a lot over the last 5 years. We've had a number of unplanned outages. And we feel with all the work that we've done and the valuation of the entire facility while we've been out for this extended period of time, that's really benefited us. And we do believe that small minor pit stop and a 4-year turnaround is the best way to go and to produce the most octane over that period.
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny with NBCM.
Appreciating it's business as usual or integration is planned here until further news comes out of the Tribunal process. But just thinking in the meantime, as you look to compete for new business in the field, perhaps offer customers access to your extended value chain. Just wondering how you're managing the commercial dynamics while waiting for the final decision here.
Yes, thanks for the question. And it is business as usual. I mean the #1 objective for us is obviously safe operations, reliable operations. But for our customers, this has to be seamless. And we have to deliver them a great service. And we believe that we're going to have a superior service offering right across the board for our customers, and we have to deliver that. So we're going to be working with all of our customers like we do and the new customers that we're going to pick up and new contracts that we'll pick up with Plains. As always, we work very closely with our customers to understand what's important to them and understand their needs. And we work to customize a solution that adds the most value for them, and that's exactly what we're going to do as we add value through this integration and synergy process.
Okay. And then I guess looking at forward Frac spreads, obviously, there's still a healthy level of backwardation into '27 and beyond. But I'm just curious if you're able to capitalize on some of the near-term commodity price volatility here from a hedging standpoint while you're waiting for final resolution.
Yes, that's a great question. Well, certainly, I just want to remind everyone that we have a 12-month hedge in place. So that was negotiated as part of the original transaction and terms of the transaction. So we have that in place, and we want to make sure that we had good cash flow stability from that part of the business for the first full year. And so it's the majority of production. So we're still exposed a bit beyond and above that and partly because the flows through Empress have been higher than what we've modeled, which is positive.
As we said before, we certainly think the pricing floor is higher than what it was pre the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So again, the longer this outage lasts, we believe that the higher prices, especially for propane are going to linger higher, which will give us opportunities to further extend the hedge past the 12 months, and we'll look for opportunities to do that.
Sounds good. And then last one for me here. I know it's a bit of a what-if question, but just thinking from a balance sheet perspective, with the sub receipts now converted to shares, I guess if you do find yourselves in a position of receiving some proceeds from certain assets being sold, would you look to redeploy that cash right away into other opportunities either organically or through tuck-ins? Or would you maybe prioritize buybacks or further debt repayment?
Yes, that's a great question. Well, you know what, first of all, we really believe in the strength of our case, and we're not focused on remedies. So that would include any sales associated with this acquisition. I am -- as a company, our strategy is always to look at our asset base and high grade it. So as you saw, we sold our Wildhorse Terminal last year, and we're redeploying that -- those proceeds into our Canadian business. we see a lot of opportunity going forward. So we'll look to reinvest our cash flows to capture that opportunity to deliver expanded service to our customers.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets.
If I could focus on what seems to be the next phase of big project developments once you have a combined entity. I know you shared your accomplishments on KFS Frac 2 debottleneck, costs have come down there. But as you think about your next phase of growth here, what are some of the emerging areas of a project development that you are anticipating will require greater focus and perhaps pinch points that needs to be dealt with early?
Maurice, thanks for the question. As we said before, I mean, certainly with more egress for both all products for natural gas, for crude oil, more export capacity that's getting built. We just think that there's going to be a lot of core infrastructure, NGL infrastructure that will need to be built with it. And at the front end of that, as Brad talked about, there'll be more gas gathering and processing capacity that will have to be built. And we're located in the best spot in the liquids-rich part of the basin, the Montney Basin. So we think that we can participate and offer a great service, both with the connectivity to our existing infrastructure and to add incremental capacity beyond that.
But for us, it's all about allocation of capital, and we want to allocate our capital and our resources to where we can add the most value. And as I said before, with the Plains assets that we just acquired, we see a tremendous amount of opportunity there. And we can -- we're going to direct a lot of our efforts to, again, enhance our service offering for our customers and to maximize the value we deliver to our shareholders as well.
If we could finish off with a question on how you touched on incremental gas and crude egress from the basin. Obviously, there's been a major upstream M&A recently. And I wonder if you could just talk to any direct or indirect impact to your company given your commercial relationships? And then just more broadly, what that you think means for the outlook of the basin?
Yes. Well, first of all, I'd just say it's a positive for our basin and an industry in Canada if this means that the probability of LNG Canada Phase 2 moves forward. We should be exporting that and adding way more capacity and exporting a lot more LNG off the West Coast of Canada. So this is fantastic from that perspective. I'd say that there's a part of me that feels a bit sad, to be honest. I look at a company like ARC that's a homegrown Canadian company that's been around for over 2 decades. The team is -- Terry Anderson and his team, they're fantastic people to work with, and we've worked very closely with them for a long period of time. So they should be pretty -- very proud of what they built. And -- but I'm sad to see that management team go. And hopefully, they start up something new and build another ARC.
But with regard to Shell, we've worked with them on -- we tried to work with them on different projects already. So we're very familiar with them. One of our directors is the former Country Chair of Shell. So we do have some connections, Michael Crothers. So whether our customer is Shell or a very small company, every customer is important to us, and we are going to work very closely with each one of them, including Shell, to understand what's important to them, how we can add value to their business, and we'll deliver them the best service possible.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Dan for closing remarks.
Thank you all once again for joining us today. Please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team with any additional questions. I hope everyone enjoys the upcoming May long weekend in Canada.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
Keyera — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Keyera — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. My name is Danny, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Keyera's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thanks, and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO; Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President, Liquids Business Unit; and Brad Slessor, Senior Vice President, G&P and NGL Pipelines Business Unit. We will begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen, after which we will open the call to questions.
I'd like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give today relate to future events. These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For more information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and on our website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was a transformational year for Keyera. We continue to demonstrate the strength of our fee-for-service business, delivering record results in both Liquids Infrastructure and Gathering and Processing. These results were driven by higher utilization across our integrated system, which supports continued dividend growth.
Keyera's marketing business finished the year at the top end of our revised guidance. While results were below our long-term base expectations, we continue to view our marketing segment as a strategic differentiator that provides strong cash flow and in stronger market environments can deliver outsized contributions. This cash can be used to strengthen our balance sheet and accelerate growth by reinvesting in our fee-for-service business.
During the year, we continued to advance our strategy of strengthening and extending our integrated value chain. We sanctioned 3 highly strategic and capital-efficient growth projects, including 2 frac expansions at KFS in addition to KAPS Zone 4. These projects are highly contracted and will continue to support growth and high-quality fee-based cash flow. These contracts demonstrate the competitiveness of our services.
In June, we announced the transformational acquisition of the Plains' Canadian NGL business. Once this highly strategic transaction closes, it will expand our national platform, strengthen our integrated value chain and enhance our ability to better serve customers and partners across Canada. For Keyera, it will support further growth and long-term shareholder value.
We continue to demonstrate disciplined portfolio management, completing 2 additional transactions, the addition of the additional gas plant capacity in the Simonette area and the divestiture of our noncore WildHorse asset. Together, these transactions reflect our continued focus on optimizing our asset base and recycling capital into higher return on-strategy opportunities.
I'll now briefly discuss the AEF outage. In mid-January, we announced an unplanned outage following the identification of an issue with a vessel on site. The safety of our employees, contractors and the integrity of the facility remain top priorities while the restart work continues. Repairs are underway, and we expect the facility to be back to full production in May.
Lastly, I want to touch on our recent organization changes. In preparation for the closing of the Plains transaction, we have reorganized our leadership reporting structure to better position the business for its next phase of growth and to drive competitiveness.
Under the new structure, we'll operate with 2 business units supported by our existing enablement teams, and Brad Slessor now leads the G&P and NGL Pipelines business unit and Jamie Urquhart leads the Liquids business unit, which includes our liquids infrastructure assets and marketing business. These changes do not affect how we'll report our segment and financial results. Overall, 2025 was a year of strong execution. We have continued to build a more efficient and competitive platform that creates meaningful value for our customers and shareholders while positioning Keyera for long-term growth.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Eileen to review our financial results and outlook.
Thanks, Dean, and good morning, everyone. Keyera's fourth quarter and year-end results reflected stable performance and continued strength in our fee-for-service business. Not including deal and integration costs associated with the Plains acquisition, annual adjusted EBITDA was $1.16 billion. Distributable cash flow was $767 million or $3.35 per share for the year, and annual net earnings were $432 million.
As Dean mentioned, we continue to see strong year-over-year growth in our fee-for-service segment, delivering record results driven by higher utilization across the value chain. In Gathering and Processing, we have record annual realized margin, delivering $439 million, up from $413 million last year. The increase reflects higher throughput and growing contributions from our Wapiti and Simonette gas plants as contracted volumes continue to grow.
In Liquids Infrastructure, realized margin was a record $593 million for the year, up from $558 million in 2024. This growth was supported by higher storage contracting and utilization of our condensate system as well as the steady ramp-up of KAPS volumes.
Now turning to the Marketing segment. Realized margin was $300 million for the year compared to $485 million last year. The lower results mostly reflect lower premiums and volumes for iso-octane sales.
Now I'll touch on our 2026 guidance. Growth capital is still expected to range between $400 million and $475 million. Maintenance capital is expected to be $140 million to $160 million. Cash taxes are expected to range between $60 million and $70 million. Consistent with prior years, Marketing segment realized margin guidance will be provided with first quarter results in mid-May, following the conclusion of the NGL contracting season.
As previously disclosed, this will reflect the approximate $110 million impact associated with the unplanned AEF outage and turnaround. Following the closing of the Plains acquisition, we'll provide pro forma guidance and a comprehensive business outlook for the combined platform, reflecting our enhanced scale and long-term growth profile.
With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. 2025 was a transformative year for Keyera. We executed on our strategy, strengthened our value chain and continue to build a competitive and efficient platform that creates value for our customers and shareholders.
On behalf of our Board and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support.
With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Aaron MacNeil of TD Cowen.
2. Question Answer
As you can imagine, we're getting a lot of inbounds on the Simonette gas plant acquisition this morning. Just wondering if there's any more details that you could provide in terms of the transaction multiple or potential financial contributions? Whether or not the assets are connected to KAPS? And if not, what the time line might be for connectivity there or any other details?
Aaron, it's Dean, and thank you very much for the questions regarding the Simonette area gas plant capacity acquisitions that we made.
What I'd say is that we like the area. And as you know, we have our own Simonette gas plant. So this really fortifies and strengthens our G&P footprint in that area. We're working with a private oil and gas company, and we do have confidentiality provisions.
And it's important for our customer not to disclose details of that contract. So we are not able to do that. But I'd just say that there are some downstream services that are included as part of this transaction. And as we've always said about our infrastructure investments is that this one included is solidly between our -- meets our 10% to 15% return on capital threshold.
That's helpful. And maybe just a bit of an oddball question, and I can appreciate that you won't speak to specific customers or contracts. But ARC recently removed the second phase of Attachie from its 5-year outlook, which was expected to be a meaningful contributor to overall basin condensate growth.
I guess just broadly speaking, would you sort of reiterate your stand-alone Keyera growth outlook despite that removal of the project?
Yes, absolutely. I mean, first of all, I'm not going to make specific comments on ARC and their plans other than to say that I think that they're a very good operating company, and they are going to continue to find ways and deliver growth for their stakeholders.
When you step back from a macro perspective, the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is a very competitive place to drill and grow your production base. And as we see -- confidently see more product egress out of our basin, that just gives us optimism that we're going to see continued growth in the future. And I'm talking about, again, just filling up the original 2 phases or the 2 trains of LNG Canada. We're hearing there's a lot more momentum around the next phase being sanctioned sometime in the next year or so. So that will be positive.
Data centers on both sides of the border are, I think, a real thing, and that's going to drive more gas -- nat gas demand. And then obviously, the expansions on Trans Mountain and also in Enbridge's system are very good for condensate demand.
So when you take that macro overlay and where we're positioned on the liquids-rich Montney fairway, we're in the sweet spot and which is why we expand our footprint in the Simonette -- the Simonette acquisition. And we see it as an area that we see a lot of demand for more services, and we're going to compete for that.
So overall, our business outlook is still very strong. And I do want to reiterate the contracts that we announced last year and we continue to sign the very high take-or-pay. So we have a high level of confidence in the delivery of our cash flow growth, which we again reiterate our 7% to 8% fee-for-service EBITDA growth out to 2027.
And as you know, projects like KAPS Zone 4 and specifically our Frac III will continue to drive our growth outlook for our fee-for-service business beyond 2027 as well. So overall, again, we think that the basin is going to be strong, and we're certainly going to capture our fair share of that growth and deliver meaningful results.
Your next question comes from Robert Hope of Scotiabank.
I want to go back to the Simonette acquisition. The MD&A has some commentary that the transaction also unlocks potential follow-on growth opportunities in the area. Can you maybe add a little bit of color to this? And then maybe just would this include a KAPS connection? Or are those assets currently connected to KAPS?
Yes. You know what, like I say, I'm not going to speak to the specific services that are attached to this contract because, again, we're just respecting the wishes and the confidentiality provisions in agreement. But what I'd say is that we generally see very good demand in that area. I mean the Simonette area really borders the Montney and the Duvernay developments, and we like it.
We do have extra capacity in our Simonette gas plant. We are working on opportunities to potentially expand our Simonette gas plant. So when you look at these two other gas plant working interest that we acquired, it ties in very nicely with that G&P footprint in the Simonette area. So again, when we look at that footprint, we see ways that we can continue to offer a broader service to the customers in that area.
Maybe a more broad question. Looking at 2025, the dividend payout ratio was kind of in the midrange of that 50% to 70% target range. As you add the Plains assets, which will be quite accretive, how are you thinking about allocation of capital? Because that will put you kind of towards the lower end, if not below your targeted payout range.
Yes. Maybe I'll just make a general comment and remind everyone that Keyera originated back in 2023 when we became public, it was as a trust. And I know that there are a lot of investors that still love that dividend. And so that's something that's very important to us, but also very important to our shareholders and something that we continue to want to grow just like we have in the past. So if I didn't, my parents probably wouldn't talk to me anymore.
But anyway, with that, I'll turn it over to Eileen for further comments.
Sure. Rob. Yes, just again, our philosophy overall on the dividend growth really won't change even as we bring Plains on. We want to make sure it's sustainable through all the various business cycles. And so we do that by maintaining, as you noted, a conservative payout ratio and by continuing to grow our fee-based cash flow.
And so with Plains and our recent sanctioning of growth projects, that fee-for-service cash flow is going to continue to grow. So beyond the dividend, really, our capital allocation priorities are to fund our sanctioned growth capital program and repay debt so that we bring our balance sheet back to the low end of our target range. Maintaining that low leverage has been a competitive advantage for us and really has allowed us to pursue opportunities when they arise, and we want to always be in that position.
Your next question comes from Ben Pham of BMO.
I just want to stay on the topic of acquisitions. I would love to hear your thoughts around just the pace of potential acquisitions that's crossing your desk there? And do you think this could be maybe a repeatable strategy for you in Western Canada?
Ben, thank you for the question. Overall, we just think that there's a great opportunity to continue to grow. I really love the -- starting from the macro, I mean, I love the Prime Minister's vision to -- for Canada to be an energy superpower, and we should be.
And so as we see more LNG and pipeline expansions to the West Coast and also more capacity built in the United States, there's going to be a lot of growth in this basin. We have a very competitive basin. And with that, there's going to be core infrastructure requirements and capacity that's going to be required to enable that growth.
And some of that is going to be greenfield, brownfield and tuck-in acquisitions like what we just announced. So we see opportunities on the horizon for all 3. At the same time, though, our primary focus today is to deliver on the 3 projects that we have sanctioned, the 2 Frac expansions and Zone 4. And also closing our Plains acquisition and getting that fully integrated and capturing synergies.
So we just don't want to get ahead of ourselves, and we want to make sure that we don't bite off more than we can chew. Those are our big priorities in the near term. But certainly, medium to long term, we see a lot of great opportunities.
Got you. And then on the Plains transaction, you mentioned the end of Q1 '26 and sense on all the conversation you're having. But are you -- is Keyera in a position now where you have a good sense of what you need to do or not do to close the deal? And is there anything in particular that's driving that target on the timing?
Yes. You know what, I can't speak to specifics on details of our discussions with the bureau. But like I say, we feel very confident that we'll be able to close this transaction somewhere around the end of the quarter. But again, we're dealing with a federal agency and not all the timing is within our control, but we are where we thought we'd be at this point in time.
Your next question comes from Maurice Choy of RBC Capital Markets.
Maybe just sticking with the Plains discussion, notwithstanding that the deal hasn't closed. But if I could just look beyond the closing, have you seen your customers already wanting to initiate contract discussions to look at the combined portfolio and service offerings? And do you see these being executed relatively soon after the deal closes?
Maurice, thank you for the question. I think the first comment I'd say is that we still have to operate 100% as separate entities until this transaction closes. So there are no discussions going on that involve combined services between the 2 platforms today.
And we want to make sure that, that's very clear. But certainly, I want to reiterate that we see a lot of opportunities to provide our customers a more competitive service than they receive today. We think with the combined assets, they're going to have a more reliable service and also a competitive service as well with our logistics capabilities or market capabilities and cross-country reach to access markets. So this is going to be a great benefit for our customers. But again, we -- it will have to wait. Those discussions will have to wait until after we close.
Makes sense. Maybe I could just switch over to the Simonette transaction. I'm not necessarily looking for color on the assets specifically, but just more philosophically. Are you seeing further opportunities for these sorts of partnerships where you own a partial ownership of a gas plant that can benefit fully downstream? And what would some of the gating items be for you to form these types of partnerships?
Yes. That's a great question. I mean we're a midstream infrastructure company, and we're a service company. So we're there to provide solutions that help our customers be successful. And there are opportunities sometimes where it makes more sense for us to own infrastructure and again, provide them other needed services to help enhance their netbacks and their success.
And this is just one example of that. And we see more opportunities in the future. But again, we just don't want to get ahead of our skis, and we just want to -- we want to focus on the Plains acquisition. And again, the 3 projects we have underway. But longer term, medium and long term, for sure, we see more opportunities like that.
Your next question comes from Robert Catellier of CIBC Capital.
I think I might try another Plains question here. Under Keyera's ownership, we'd expect the cash flow from the Plains assets to be reinvested in Canada, whereas the cash flow was largely being repatriated under Plains' ownership. So how big a consideration do you think that is in terms of the various approvals you're seeking?
Rob, that's a great question. But I can't comment on, again, the competition process and -- but what I can say is that there's never been a greater time where it's important for Canadian companies to own Canadian assets.
And especially one like ours where this transaction helps us provide a more competitive service for our customers that helps them -- enables them to grow and our basin to grow and for us to fulfill that vision of being the energy superpower. And you just look at what's happening with our partners or our neighbors in the United States and what's happening in the world, the Middle East, it's just never been a more important time for us also to have control of our own resources and energy security.
And you're right, with that as a Canadian company, we are going to reinvest in Canada. This is where we -- our headquarters are right here in Calgary. And with that, we're going to create a lot of jobs. We do a lot of great work with the communities that we invest in. And so -- and we have great indigenous partnerships in terms of all the services that we award or contracts we award to them as well. So it's a win-win for everybody. And so anyway, yes, I agree with you 100%. Right now, it's got to be -- Canadian ownership is super important.
I know it's a tough question to answer under the circumstances. My second question has to do with -- I wanted your views -- updated views on the investment conditions required for a potential condensate splitter?
Yes. Well, you know what, it would have to meet our investment hurdles just like any other investment. So we generally have a guideline public that we've shared publicly the 10% to 15% return on capital on a stand-alone basis for infrastructure. And generally, we wanted to be -- have integrated benefits as well, which will enhance those returns.
We wanted to have contracting behind it, so we mitigate our commodity exposure on an investment like that. And obviously, we want to make sure we can build infrastructure like that at a cost that, again, helps us generate those kind of returns.
Anything else you want to add, Jamie?
Okay. Then maybe my last question in the marketing, you talked about the lower crude prices and the effect on blending margins. I wonder if there's -- understanding your guidance for market will come out later. I'm wondering if there's any way you can quantify what impact you see that having on the lower crude prices having on blending margins?
Yes. So Robert, it's Jamie. Thanks for the question. Yes, there's no doubt that lower crude prices have an impact on lots of components of our business, including our blending business. I think the thing that I would say is that in order for us to hit our guidance, there's just a few core assumptions that we've shared with the market for many years now with respect to commodity pricing, but also the ability for our assets to operate the way we expect them to operate, AEF and our Frac capacity being the primary drivers of that.
So all I can share is that even in today's current commodity environment with those assets operating the way we fully expect them to do in the future, we're confident with respect to meeting and being within the guidance that we've provided to the market.
Also say, too, I mean, if you look where crude is trading, I mean, I think everyone thought it was going to trade down to 50s, we're in the mid-60s, and that's a pretty good value.
The next question comes from Theresa Chen of Barclays.
With diluent flows altering across North America, given the need for the U.S. to send incremental barrels to Venezuela, how does this inform your view of condensate supply and demand balances in Western Canada and Keyera's role within this outlook?
Yes, thank you for the question. I mean before I turn it over to Jamie, I'd just say generally that we have an industry-leading condensate system. So irrespective of where it comes from, whether it comes from the field or whether it comes from the pipeline from the U.S. We provide storage services. We aggregate those volumes, and we also deliver it up to the oil sands. The other thing I'd point out is that we have the ability also to rail it in and when needed. So again, we have a very, very strong system for condensate, which is used for deal with.
But Jamie, do you want to add some comments?
Yes. No, I think the only thing I'd add is that -- and it comes back to Dean's earlier comment with respect to our belief in the basin is that we believe that condensate growth within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin will be a big part of continuing to be the primary supply of condensate needs for oil sands and the growth that we expect to see in the oil sands industry.
So not to say that Venezuela won't perhaps have at some point in the future, but that will be requiring tens of billions of dollars of investment and some significant time in our view, there might be a little bit of a pull for condensate out of North America. We fully expect that, that won't have a significant impact on the condensate supply in Western Canada.
And in terms of the unplanned outage at AEF, can you provide more details on the nature of the outage and how you're addressing the operational ratability of this asset on a go-forward basis?
Yes. So that's a great question, and I'm surprised we've taken that long in our call to get to this, but happy to -- all I can share is that we've got an investigation underway and really are looking to determine the root cause of the event.
At this time, the repair work is underway, and we fully expect to be back up and running at full rates in the May time frame. But I think really to the last part of your question is while the facility is offline, we're taking the opportunity to look at that unit holistically. We're taking a very proactive approach by inspecting all the major accessible components during that outage to ensure the long-term integrity of the asset.
Next question comes from A.J. O'Donnell of TPH.
Just wondering if I could go back to condensate. Just thinking about kind of the robust supply and demand signals that we're going to be seeing over the coming years and in light of the couple of egress expansions that we've had between mainline and also a DRA optimization on TMX.
Just curious where you guys sit right now with -- as far as evaluating growth capital projects on your condensate system? Like what innings do you think we're in right now? And at what point do you think we could start to see some projects get across the finish line?
A.J., I'm going to turn that question over to Jamie.
Okay. Well, I mean, you alluded to that, yes, we see obviously some really positive tailwinds with respect to the ability for oil sands growth within our basin. And with that comes condensate growth.
And our condensate system, as Dean alluded to earlier, handles approximately 70% of all the condensate that ultimately is used within the oil sands. And so we've identified different opportunities within our system, obviously, to be able to serve that growing need. And there was a reference earlier to the condensate splitter.
But it's storage for condensate. It's lots of different components of the business model that we've created for the condensate system. All I can share with you is that, as condensate demand grows within the basin, we expect to be -- continue to get more than our lion's share of the opportunity within that growth of the condensate requirements in our basin.
Yes. And just to add to what Jamie said is that we've evaluated our system. And as the basin continues to grow, we have evaluated opportunities to debottleneck it if we need to. So we're being proactive about it. And again, we certainly believe we're going to be able to provide those services as the demand continues to grow.
Okay. I appreciate the detail there. Maybe going back to -- on the G&P segment broadly. Just looking at volumes, Q4 versus Q3 down a little bit. But just curious, as we sit here roughly halfway through Q1, can you give us an update on kind of how producer activity is overall trending in your system?
Yes, that's a great question. And I'm going to turn that over to our new Senior Vice President, Brad Slessor. Go ahead, Brad.
Thanks for the question. Yes, you noted in Q4 volumes were down a little bit. We had a planned curtailment in one of our bigger plants in the north. So that would be the result of some of that.
That outage went very well safely. We got all the work done and the team has done a great job getting that facility back up and running back to full rates. We're seeing a lot of great wells being drilled around our facilities. We're seeing both Simonette, Wapiti and a lot of our plants in the South continue to add volumes kind of month-over-month. So we're very optimistic about how that business is trending right now.
I think sometimes though you see some blips in our production -- sorry, our throughputs. And sometimes that's just related to well pads and just normal declines and then the next well pad, the timing of that being tied in and things like that. But overall, we feel very, very good about the demand behind our facilities, especially in our North portfolio.
Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny of National Bank Capital Markets.
Just on the disposition of the WildHorse terminal, I know the contracting demand wasn't panning out as you had hoped. But just given post Venezuela and all storage assets perhaps gaining some option value at least, curious your thoughts around the decision to sell now at this price. And then also, maybe you can confirm your thoughts around your Canadian crude oil storage assets still being core to the business going forward.
Yes. Yes, you know what, listen, we have a very disciplined strategy, and we want to make sure that we're staying focused on what matters most to our business and our customers.
And we're not -- as you know, we're not a big crude product handler and service provider and especially down in the U.S. We do not have big competitive advantages down in the U.S. So you know what, we thought it's best to sell this asset. And you know what, Plains is going to be able to take it and make it a much better and more profitable part of their organization because they have a very big footprint in Cushing. So it's a win for them. For us, again, we're able to redirect funds into other core activities like the Simonette acquisition.
And I also want to point out, I mean, this is just part of a trend of, again, our disciplined strategy. We sold off 3 gas plants last year, our North Pembina gas plant, Caribou and also Edson. And so we want to always clean up our portfolio of noncore assets because they take a lot of extra time and effort -- a disproportionate amount of time and effort amongst our people and we want to direct that to what is core to our business, which is our integrated NGL value chain in Canada.
Got it. Okay. And then I guess just on the leadership changes. So first off, congrats to Brad on the well-deserved promotion there. But it looks like the bench might be shortened here a little bit with Jarrod's departure. So I'm just wondering if you might be looking to refill more of a dedicated operations or COO role going forward, especially with the integration of the Plains assets right around the corner? Or is this the team in place capable of handling the pro forma portfolio?
Yes, that's a great question. You know, first of all, I want to acknowledge Jarrod's departure because we've all worked with him for a long time. I mean the guy started as a summer student and worked his way all the way up in the organization. So it tells you what a strong performer he's always been. And he's had a really great career here, and he's had a lot of value. And -- but we also respect his own personal decisions.
Having said that, when we look at our organization, we made a significant investment in our leadership. And when I look across at our Vice President Group, both on the operations and engineering side, these are very, very strong leaders. And when I look at the leadership stack below them as well, very, very strong leaders in place. So when we think about the long-term future of Keyera, we want to make sure that any one of us around the table when it's our time to retire or leave, it's very seamless for this organization, and we can continue on and continue to grow and be more successful.
So that's always part of our succession plans in our company, and so it brings opportunities for others. And you know what, I have a very strong confidence that they will step up. I think from an organizational perspective, we're always evaluating what the best structure is for Keyera. And if it involves hiring a senior ops engineering leader at some point in the future, we'll absolutely do it. But again, I just want to reiterate that we have very, very strong bench strength in our leadership across the company.
Hopefully, you're going to get a chance to watch the game. So go Canada.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Dan Cuthbertson, please continue.
Thanks all, again, for joining us today. Please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team with any additional questions. Enjoy the rest of the day, and have a good weekend, everybody.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Keyera — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Keyera — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. My name is Eena, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Keyera's 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Thank you, and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; and Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO; Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Jarrod Beztilny, Senior Vice President, Operations and Engineering. .
We will begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen name, after which we will open the call to questions.
I'd like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give today relate to future events. These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and on our website.
With that, I'll turn the call over to the Dean.
Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. This quarter again demonstrated the strength of our fee-for-service business, where realized margin grew by more than 10% year-over-year. This continued increase in stable cash flow reflects higher utilization across our integrated system and support ongoing dividend growth.
2025 has been a defining year for Keyera, built on several years of disciplined execution of our strategy to extend and strengthen our value chain. We built a highly competitive integrated platform that continues to attract customer volumes and support long-term growth. This year alone, we secured more than 100,000 barrels per day of new contracting on caps and our existing implant fractionation capacity is now substantially contracted.
Those wins demonstrate the value customers place on our services. We're also making solid progress on our major growth projects. The KFS frac 2 debottleneck, frac 3 expansion and Capstone 4 are each advancing on time and on budget. Together, they will further strengthen our integrated system and provide stable long-term fee-for-service cash flow supported with a significant portion of take-or-pay contracts.
Pending acquisition of Plains Canadian NGL business will build on that foundation. It adds meaningful scale, expands our reach to key demand hubs in the East and allows us to offer customers more flexibility and connectivity across the value chain. The transaction remains on track, and we expect to close in the first quarter of 2026.
Turning to the Marketing segment. While the quarterly results and full year outlook came in below expectations, the segment remains strategically important to our business. It provides strong cash flow and, in some years, delivers exceptional contributions. That cash has helped us strengthen the balance sheet and accelerate growth in our fee-for-service business, further compounding value for shareholders.
I want to briefly touch on our sustainability progress. We met our 2025 GHG intensity reduction target of 25%, a full year ahead of schedule. This has been accomplished through economic investments that improve efficiency and meet our return threshold.
More importantly, our sustainability program focuses on managing long-term risks and positioning the company for lasting value creation. We published our 2024 sustainability performance summary on our website.
Overall, 2025 has been a year of strong execution. We continue to build a more efficient and competitive platform that creates meaningful value for our customers and shareholders while positioning Keyera for long-term growth.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Eileen to review our financial results and outlook.
Thanks, Dean, and good morning, everyone. Keyera's third quarter results reflected stable performance and continued strength in our fee-for-service businesses. Not including deal and integration costs associated with the Plains acquisition, adjusted EBITDA was $286 million.
Distributable cash flow was $186 million or $0.81 per share, and net earnings were $85 million. As Dean mentioned, we continue to see strong year-over-year growth in our fee-for-service segment, driven by higher utilization across the value chain.
In gathering and processing, realized margin was $112 million, up from $99 million last year. The increase reflects higher throughput and growing contributions from our Wapiti and Simonette plants, as contracted volumes continue to grow.
In liquid infrastructure, realized margin was $147 million compared to $135 million last year, supported by higher storage and utilization of our condensate system as well as the steady ramp-up of CAPs volumes.
Now turning to the Marketing segment. Realized margin was $73 million for the quarter compared to $135 million last year. The lower results reflect reduced condensate import volumes as domestic production displaced UM imports. While this shift benefits our fee-for-service business, it reduced marketing opportunities. Liquids blending activity and iso-octane premiums were also lower.
For the full year, we now expect marketing realized margin to range between $280 million and $300 million. Results would have been within our long-term base guidance range without the approximate $50 million impact from the unplanned AEF outage earlier in the year. We are reaffirming our long-term annual base marketing guidance of $310 million to $350 million. This is based on certain commodity price assumptions and AEF operating at nameplate capacity.
During the quarter, we issued $2.3 billion of senior notes and $500 million of hybrid notes, which completed the financing requirements for the Plains acquisition.
Now I'll touch on our capital outlook and guidance update. For 2025, we've made a few adjustments. Growth capital is now expected to range between $220 million and $240 million, down from our previous estimate of $275 million to $300 million. The change reflects the deferral of some spending to 2026. This does not impact the expected in-service dates of our major projects.
Maintenance capital is now expected to be $60 million to $70 million, slightly lower than before, again, reflecting some timing shifts. And cash taxes are expected to come in between $90 million and $100 million primarily due to lower marketing contributions.
Looking ahead to 2026, we're providing stand-alone guidance until the Plains transaction closes. We remain on track to deliver our 7% to 8% compound annual growth rate in fee-based adjusted EBITDA from 2024 through 2027. Growth capital for 2026 is expected to range between $400 million and $475 million, mainly directed toward our sanctioned growth projects.
Maintenance capital for 2026 is expected to range between $130 million and $150 million, which includes about $60 million for the planned 6-week turnaround at AEF starting in September. Following closing of the Plains acquisition, we'll provide pro forma guidance and a comprehensive business outlook for the combined platform, reflecting enhanced scale and long-term growing profile.
With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.
Thanks, Eileen. 2025 has been a transformative year for Keyera. We've executed on our strategy, strengthened our value chain and continue to build a competitive and efficient platform that creates value for customers and shareholders. With a fully financed plan and self-funded growth ahead, we're well positioned to support the continued growth of the basin and deliver strong fee-for-service margin growth for years to come.
On behalf of our Board and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support.
With that, we'll turn -- we'll open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Robert Hope from Scotiabank.
2. Question Answer
So good to see the continued growth in gathering and processing cash flows, even with the weakness in AECO. As you look at your northern footprint and the increasing volumes there, how are you thinking about further optimizations or expansions?
Yes, thank you very much for the question. We see our Northern footprint as being really in the most economic fairway of the Montney -- the liquids-rich fairway of the Montney. So we do see continued growth in demand for our services in that area, and that's exactly why you're seeing continued volume growth even with weak natural gas prices because, again, the values in the liquids, we think that we're going to have opportunities to continue to not only fill the remaining capacity that we have up there, but also to expand and build new capacity.
So it's something that we're extremely excited about. And again, a lot of that development is going to continue with the continued announcements of new LNG capacity off the West Coast of Canada. But I'll also turn it over to Jamie to add any other comments.
Yes, Dean, thanks for the opportunity. Robert, I think the one thing I'd point out is that we have really strong gathering interconnectivity between the 3 facilities that we have in the North. So as we look at the opportunity to debottleneck and expand specifically Wapiti and Simonette, what we're finding is the demand by the customers in that area for both short-term and long-term processing solutions, and we think we're going to be able to do some capital-efficient debottlenecks at those facilities to enable them both to continue to grow in the short term and then potentially have line of sight to be able to pursue a new facility in that area as well.
All right. That's helpful. Maybe more broadly on the liquids contracting strategy. You were quite active securing contracts, we'll call it, in the first half of the year, less so with this update. Has the pending acquisition of Plains added some complexity to the contracting strategy, just given you're going to have more optionality?
And I guess another question there would be, how would the addition of Plains impact the contracting strategy moving forward?
Yes. No, that's a great question. I mean, first of all, the Plains acquisition is proceeding and we certainly believe that we'll be closing some time in Q1. But right now, we're operating Keyera as a totally separate entity. And as you would have seen in our -- look, we don't provide every quarter an update on what we've contracted.
But I can tell you that there's continued momentum to the contracting on our asset base beyond what we've announced previously this year. So again, it just tells you how competitive our services are and the demand there is very strong. So we're going to continue to do that.
I think with the combination of Keyera -- sorry with Plains, we're going to be able to provide an even more diversified service in terms of market access, but also with the size and the scale and the synergies between our asset bases, we're going to be able to provide a more competitive service for our customers, and that's going to obviously lead to more contracting on the combined platform.
Jamie, anything else you want to add?
No, I think you hit it perfectly, dean. .
And your next question comes from the line of Aaron MacNeil from TD Cowen.
I fully appreciate that this may be front-running some of the disclosures you plan to provide post Plains. But as we think about a refreshed 3-year guide with 2025 as the base year, should we think about 2028 as a consequential year for growth for Keyera on a stand-alone basis, just given the timing of contracts associated with CAP zone 4 and KFS 3? And can you give us a sense of the potential magnitude, all other things being equal?
Yes, you are front-running us. But I think it's a very good question. I mean we've guided out to 2027, and that's the 7% to 8% fee-for-service base growth. And again, a lot of that is investments that we've already made, and we're just filling that capacity.
I'd say on top of that, obviously, as we've announced the CAP zone 4 and our 2 frac projects are highly contracted with high take-or-pays, so you're going to see a lot of cash flow growth in 2027 and beyond as those projects come into service and volumes ramp up. So yes, that's going to be very good for our fee-for-service business.
We haven't provided guidance on that yet, but that will come in the future. And then on the Plains side, we've announced that our plan is to deliver, I'll say, at least $100 million of synergies. And we have a clear line of sight to that. Based on where we are, and we've put some positions -- we have an arrangement in place where we have very good certainty on the frac spread for the first year of acquisition when we close the Plains.
So we're very confident on our mid-teens DCF accretion. And beyond that, like I say, we see a lot of opportunity to create further synergies beyond the $100 million. So when you add all that up, what it boils down to is that I think it's going to be very exciting for Keyera with our -- both our internally internal projects, but also the combination of Plains and creating a more efficient platform that's going to translate to better service and more profitability for our shareholders.
So I'm not trying to dodge your question. I think at the end of the day, we will be providing more guidance in the future. We have to get, obviously, the closing with Plains first before we can disclose mentioned.
Okay. Fair enough. I had to try. You you reiterated the long-term base marketing guide. How does the planned turnaround at AEF fit into that next year?
Thanks, Aaron, it's Eileen here. Thanks for the question. Just maybe stepping back, looking at this year. Historically, our isooctane margins have made up more than 50% of the marketing. And based on fundamentals that we see for isooctane, we expect it to remain strong. And if not for the 7-week unplanned outage of AEF, the impact of $50 million, we would have been well within our base guide, if not near the top end of it.
So all that to say, we feel very confident in that long-term base guidance. So you're right, based when we look at the assumptions that underpin the, one of the key assumptions is that AEF operates near capacity and certain other commodity price type of assumptions, especially around WTI.
So next year, you're absolutely right that there is a 6-week planned turnaround that would certainly play into that guidance. And so we -- again, next year, we will provide guidance as we normally would, as we close out our supply season.
Yes. I'd just maybe add to that. I mean when you look at the big picture, we feel pretty good about our marketing business. And again, it's a physical business. So when you think about our frac expansions, what it means is that we're going to be catching and marketing more barrels and making margin off those incremental barrels.
So I think that's a bit of a tailwind. When you think about our isooctane business, we think that's pretty strong. And again, the demand for premium grades of gasoline are increasing. And certainly, with some of the policy changes in the United States, the demand for gasoline and the demand for our internal combustion engine vehicles is much higher than what anyone would have expected even a couple of years ago. So I think that bodes pretty well there.
And thirdly, I think with the Plains acquisition, we're going to really enhance our market access and especially out to the East, which is really going to complement the markets that we can serve already in the West and also locally, especially with our condensate system, our isooctane business. Our propane access is going to be much stronger with the Plains business. So again, that's going to be another positive tailwind for our marketing business.
And your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier from CIBC.
I wanted to follow up on Rob Hope's first question and just the practical implication of the timing on the Plains transaction. So my question is, what is the likelihood that the transaction closes in time for Keyera to go to market for the '26 contracting year on a more integrated basis?
Well, that's a good question. At the end of the day, we are certainly -- the bureau process is that review is proceeding as we would have expected. This is a large acquisition. So with any large acquisition, it takes time and that timing isn't always certain. So we believe that we're still on track to get through that process in the first quarter and close. It would be nice if we could have a close before contracting season, but that still remains to be seen. This is, obviously, not 100% within our control.
Yes, it would be great for the customers as well. .
Absolutely.
And just bigger picture here, just looking at CAPs, and we don't know the ultimate size of the pipeline, but my question is, given your view of basin growth, which is similar to ours and pretty strong, what is possible in terms of an expansion of caps in terms of the time line? And is that possible without a material gathering and processing expansion by Keyera?
I love the question. It wasn't like 2 quarters ago when you guys were asking us how we're going to fill CAPs, there you asking us to expand it. But I mean, hey, with the contracts that we've signed, yes, I mean, CAPs by the end of the decade is going to get start to get pretty full, which is very exciting and tells how competitive our system is and the demand for that service. But maybe I'll turn that question over to Jarrod.
Yes. Robert, I think that's really was part of the plan is to add particularly pump station capacity as the volumes warranted. And that's really what we're doing. So there's some of that coming along with zone 4, and we expect that will continue out through the end of the decade. So we still have some runway there to do some very capital-efficient expansions through additional pumping before we'd have a step change in capital beyond that.
Okay. And last one for me, just on the bigger picture, Dean. What are you seeing in terms of how the basin is changing? We've had some more producer consolidation recently, but we're also seeing maybe a different approach towards LNG with the major projects office, putting another project on there. So just when you look at those things together, how was the customer interaction and maybe the growth outlook changing?
Yes. I mean it's -- I feel a lot more optimistic today than I have in a long, long time. And it's encouraging to hear some positive comments come from our Prime Minister and some actions in the right direction. I think it's great for Canada if we can continue to develop more LNG off the West Coast. .
And certainly, hey, we'll benefit from that because we have critical infrastructure that helps enable that basin growth. I think there still needs to be some -- still some progress on key policies that would, again, just give everyone a lot of confidence that we can do this in a competitive manner.
When you think about -- so I think the basin is going to grow. And I should also mention, too, it's exciting that Enbridge is finding ways to add more capacity on their system. We know that TMX, Trans Mountain has ability to also debottleneck to you. So I think this bodes well for our industry and for Canada, which is great and help us boost our economy.
We think about consolidation. The way I think about it is that as an industry, we should be working together to create the most competitive low-cost and environmentally friendly energy to serve the world. And some of the consolidations that we're seeing, I think it's good because it creates more size and scale and efficiency to help accomplish that.
And for Keyera as a midstream service provider, we're doing the same thing. And that's what Plains is all about. We're consolidating, and we're going to be more efficient, we're going to provide a more competitive service, and that's going to make our basin more competitive, and that should help us export more products with additional market access that we're going to be getting in the future. So I think it's a good thing overall.
And your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen from Barclays.
Just a quick follow-up one from me on the marketing segment. Octane premiums seem to be improving so far in fourth quarter 2025 despite what should be a seasonally soft period. What are some of the factors contributing to this dynamic in your view? Is it octane demand-related alluding to some of the long-term trends you mentioned earlier or have there been supply disruptions in octane observed in the market?
You're very astute to be about watching that market. But I'll turn that over to Jamie to provide more color on.
Yes. So as being said, yes, you're bang on. Q4 premiums are actually trading above historical levels. Our view is that it's really attributed to both the supply and the demand side. On the supply side, we're seeing some significant refinery outages, also some closures of refineries, specifically on the West Coast, which is an area where a lot of our products in the Western U.S. is sold.
So -- but also demand has been strong. Certainly, as well have really had some tailwinds over the last period of time. And it's interesting with respect to gasoline pricing and octanes are not necessarily always limited to North America and what's going on in North America. But long term, we have a really strong view that both cracks and isooctane premiums, octane premiums are going to be robust.
They're going to continue to be above historic levels. Not to the levels that we would have seen in 2022 or through '24 based on some very unique geopolitical events on the planet. But we expect the strength in isooctane premiums will persist into 2026.
And your next question comes from the line of AJ O'Donnell from TPH.
I was hoping to maybe just start on the macro and just kind of what's going on right now in Q4. Wondering if you could talk to maybe some of the activity levels you're seeing across the North and South in light of LNG Canada starting to ramp up that second train and AECO prices starting to improve?
Yes, thanks for the question. I think from a big picture standpoint, I mean, most of the growth in the basin has been and will continue to happen up in the Montney. And a lot of value is derived from the liquids. So even though -- so they're up in that area is not really that sensitive to natural gas prices, it's probably more sensitive to crude oil prices.
And even at $60 WTI for condensate, roughly, you multiply that by the FX rate, in Canadian dollar terms is still a pretty good price, which is still a good price incentive for producers to continue to drill and grow. I think up in that area, too, that there's not as much infrastructure capacity and that's from gas plants and all the way through that value chain.
And so whenever you have scarcity of supply, the producers want to make sure they have -- they secure that in order to fill their growth plans in the future. So what we can say is that demand has been very high for the remaining capacity that we have. So we expect to continue to add volumes and grow, even in the price environment that we're in and obviously, adding the second train at LNG Canada it's going to help.
But we're going to look beyond that, and we think that there's going to be more LNG developed off the West Coast, which is going to, again, create further demand for more processing capacity and CAP service in our downstream business. So overall, we think that demand will remain strong in the South.
I think that's where it's a little bit more sensitive to natural gas prices. Our volumes have been relatively steady, especially when you consider what AECO prices have been. And I think that if we catch a little bit of a period with stronger gas prices, I'm sure the producers down there are probably hedging forward too with some of the curves that you can see. And there's a lot of gas still in place down in the South. And over time, we expect that to get drilled up and see some more volume growth there as well.
Anything you want to add, Jamie?
Yes. So the only thing I'd add is everything -- I agree with everything being said on the North. In the South, I think we're seeing some really positive tailwinds there. As a result, there was a bunch of consolidation 2, 3 years ago, and it takes the company a period of time to understand the resource that they're inheriting and ultimately putting drilling programs together.
And what we've seen is those companies then really starting to get after what they purchased 2, 3 years ago and seen some very, very good results as a result of applying their technology, their competency, frankly, one of the reasons why they would have bought those assets because they believe they could do bigger things with the land base and the prospectivity of those assets. So we are seeing some really positive results in the South as well.
Okay. Great. Then maybe just one more kind of on the medium or longer term. We've seen a handful of refined products pipelines being announced in the U.S. pulling from pad 2 and then going into some of those refinery closure markets that you talked about into pad 5.
I'm just curious, as you kind of kind of think about your isooctane business, how you anticipate either 1 or multiple of these projects impacting those margins or having an impact on that business?
Yes, that's a good question. Jamie?
Yes. So I love the fact that you guys are on top of our business because, yes, there's 2 pipelines that are being proposed, refined pipelines that are being proposed to serve the sort of the Nevada, Arizona, but primarily the California market and the California market has seen some refinery closures happening.
And that's really drawing -- creating a pull for those refined products out of -- likely out of Texas and and even further to the East. So those 2 projects, we think, have a lot of merit. And we currently serve a bunch of the refineries that would have connectivity, and we would expect to supply into the markets that they're being built into. So we have relationships. Net-net, we see that as a very positive development for our business on the isooctane front.
We like the markets that are served, the continental markets that aren't served off the water because we're advantaged. We're moving our railcars down south. And so we can certainly save on the transportation cost, if we don't have to take it all the way to the U.S. Gulf Coast and we can hit one of those inland refiners or places where they blend gasoline.
So we like the developments of what's happening with the closures in California of refiners. And also the gasoline demand growth that we're seeing, as Jamie discussed, in Arizona and Nevada, Salt Lake City, that area and also in the Denver area as well.
[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Maurice Choy from RBC Capital Markets.
Just wanted to think about the world beyond the Plains transaction and then more big picture about how you view partnerships. Can you talk to what's worked well, what you'll be looking for when establishing a new partnership? Or alternatively, maybe you don't see that many new partnerships being formed over the coming years.
Yes. That's a really good question. And I think one thing that we have replication for is that we're a good partner. We work well with others. We understand the need for a win-win if we want to have a successful partnership that's sustainable. When we look at our business in the long term, I think that we really believe in the value of partnering with indigenous groups and recognizing that they have unique needs and investment criteria. .
But when I think about future partnerships and if there's an opportunity that, again, would work for us and work for them, it's something that I think that we should definitely be exploring.
Understood. And if I could just finish off on the marketing side of the business. I think you touched on the AEF turnaround, you touched on the strengthening cracks as well as premiums. Anything in terms of the market dynamics that you highlighted today for marketing that you think will continue negatively into the new year or do you think most of that will unwind?
Yes. I'll turn that over to Jamie.
Yes. So sorry, Maurice, I understand your question, is there any negative market dynamics that we expect to persist...
Like to carry on, yes.
So we did highlight the fact that we've seen a reduction in condensate imports and into Western Camden. And that's something that we think is likely short-lived based on the oil sands growth and the demand for diluent. But other than that, we're very bullish with respect to the demand for spec, propane in particular and excited on both the export deals that we put in place with AltaGas, and as Dean said, getting the assets from Plains to access to markets in Eastern Canada and the U.S. So yes, no, I -- we don't see any major headwinds on the commodities that we touch for our marketing business going forward.
Yes. I'd just say, though, that I think everything is all relative. And if you compare it to 2023 and 2024, those were outsized years. I mean we delivered $480 million, $485 million in those years. And we certainly don't want anyone to think that, that's the norm. But I think we have a business that there will be years where we have outsized performance.
And I just want to make sure that everyone understands that we have the discipline when we have those outsized years, we take those extra marketing dollars and we pay down our debt. And that afforded us that and our free cash flow affords us ability to sanction or CAP zone 4 or 2 frac projects. And also pursue Plains, the Plains' Canadian NGL business, which really is a big game-changer for our company.
So I think we have to think about marketing in our business in a more holistic macro manner and what it does for our overall business. And it's been a very successful model from day 1, and I think it will be in the future as well.
And your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny from National Bank Capital Markets.
Maybe just on the CapEx budget here through '26 and looking at the balance sheet still in really good shape heading into the Plains acquisition. But just given the slippage in commodity prices and some near-term marketing contributions, any thoughts on how much you'd be willing to flex your growth capital program over the near term, if new opportunities arise? Or on the flip side, any thoughts around building any further cushion over the near term just until commodity prices normalize?
Thanks for the question. I'll turn that over to Eileen.
Sure. Thanks, Pat. Just as a general comment, I'd say, kind of reiterating what Dean said earlier, is like the strength of our balance sheet and the low leverage has been a competitive advantage for us. And we intend to maintain that advantage. So it's because of this philosophy that we were able to pursue Plains this year, which, again, being touched on.
And when we planned our future capital allocation, whether it's growth capital or dividends, et cetera, we always assume a more normalized marketing. We never plan for exceptional results. So the lower contribution this year or a more muted contribution would not impact what we put out in terms of our leverage, which is still once we close Plains within the first 12 months, to be still within our target range, that 2.5x to 3x, albeit at the higher end.
And the only other thing maybe I'd add is that when we did the funding plan for Plains, it contemplated that we remain within those bands and then we quickly deleverage really by once we're through this growth capital so that we are keeping our options open for other opportunities, especially with the basin growth that we see, we absolutely are able to still continue to grow and leverage those options that as they come along -- opportunity.
And Pat, just to add to that. I mean, certainly, the frac projects and CAP zone 4, I mean that's already built into our central forecast, and we still remain within our guidance range or our goalpost of 2.5x to 3x debt to EBITDA.
And so -- and I also point out that the 2.5x to 3x where we like to be is more conservative than sort of the infrastructure peers. So if we get to the higher end of that range, I don't think that's the end of the world because we're still in a very good range relative to our peers. But again, we always like the ability to pay it back down, restore flexibility and enables us to be more opportunistic.
Okay. I appreciate that. And -- but Dean, maybe just back on the 3.5 Bcf a day of LNG projects being of national interest. Would you be able to help us just to still what opportunities, say, over and above filling your existing assets you might be looking at from a brownfield or even a greenfield perspective, just to take advantage of this long overdue window in political support?
Yes. No, I think it's tremendously exciting. And first of all, a lot of it is, is that there's not enough gas gathering processing capacity to process that gas. And when you think about where the bulk of that growth is going to come from, it's that Montney fairway in the most economic parts of the fairway where we're located is going to get developed disproportionately.
And so we see an opportunity to provide that integrated service right from the gas plants. So we're going to look at debottlenecks, we're going to look at potential greenfield expansions up there or we also consider like a tuck-in acquisition that could also support our network up in the North, and again, provide that full integrated service to our customers to offer them the best economic netback for the product.
Okay. And last one for me, just a housekeeping item. You touched on your confidence in the normalized marketing guidance range. And Eileen, you mentioned this is based on, I guess, a return to a more normalized commodity price environment of looks like $65 to $75 per barrel.
Just wondering, as we look at the strip, having a hard time breaking through a $60 a year or at least for the next couple of years, [indiscernible] or walk us through what other positive margin tailwinds you could point to, whether it's butane feedstock costs or perhaps other products that you market that might help offset some of these existing headwinds for now and firm up that confidence in the $3.10 to $3.50 range for at least '26 and '27?
Pat, it's Jamie. Well, you hit on one of the big ones is butane as an input into isooctane and also in a complement to our blending business. We do look at butane being in an oversupplied. Our market in Western Canada is oversupplied in butane and it's forecast to be. So as we've talked about as there's more development in our basin, it's good to know that all those developments have are fairly rich in natural gas liquids and ultimately, with all the frac expansions that are happy with ourselves and some of our peers, we expect that there's going to be additional butane that we'll continue to have -- see that market oversupplied.
So we expect that butane prices will be relatively soft relative to historic levels, and that will be a positive for our business. We touched on it, I think based on fundamentals worldwide with respect to the pull for -- sorry, for propane and ultimately, with the assets that we're inheriting with the Plains acquisition, we see some opportunities to create value for our customer and also our shareholders on the propane side. So those would be the 2 big ones. Other than what we talked about, which is the strength in our view around our cracks and isooctane premiums.
Yes. And ultimately, we'll provide an update like we usually do in the second quarter of next year.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to Mr. Dan Cuthbertson for any closing remarks.
Thank you all again for joining us today. And please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team if you have any additional questions. Have a good weekend, everybody.
And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.
Keyera — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Financial data from Keyera
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 7,189 7,189 |
1%
1%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 5,778 5,778 |
1%
1%
80%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 1,411 1,411 |
3%
3%
20%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 197 197 |
5%
5%
3%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 1,115 1,115 |
11%
11%
16%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 404 404 |
12%
12%
6%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 711 711 |
20%
20%
10%
|
|
| Net Profit | 361 361 |
32%
32%
5%
|
|
In millions CAD.
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Keyera Stock News
Company Profile
Keyera Corp. engages in the operation of assets in the oil and gas industry between the upstream sectors. It operates through the following segments: Gathering and Processing; Liquids Infrastructure; Marketing Business segment. The Gathering and Processing segment includes raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products, and separate the economic components, primarily natural gas liquids (NGLs), before the sales gas is delivered into long-distance pipeline systems for transportation to end-use markets. The Liquid Infrastructure segment consists of network of facilities for the gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, and transportation of the by-products of natural gas processing, including NGLs in mix form and specification NGLs such as ethane, propane, butane, and condensate. The Marketing Business segment markets a range of products associated with its two infrastructure business lines, primarily propane, butane, condensate and iso-octane, and also engages in liquids blending activities. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | Canada |
| CEO | Mr. Setoguchi |
| Employees | 1,005 |
| Founded | 1998 |
| Website | www.keyera.com |


