Molson Coors Beverage Co - A Stock

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call. And now I'll turn it over to Barb Noverini, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator. Our earnings release and presentation materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. Please refer to our earnings release and our most recent SEC filings for important information regarding these statements including risk factors as well as definitions of and reconciliations to any non-GAAP measures. Actual results may differ materially from our expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law. Today, we'll focus our prepared remarks on our performance and outlook before opening the line for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results are comparable prior year period and are in U.S. dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency, when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, share data references are sourced from Sircana in the U.S. unless otherwise indicated.

Our remarks today will also reference underlying pretax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release.

And with that, I will hand it over to Rahul.

Thank you Barb, and good morning, everyone. Since launching Horizon 2030 earlier this year, we've been laying important groundwork for long-term success. We are building the portfolio, the capabilities, the routines and the operating discipline to perform more consistently across the business. We've taken decisive actions intended to strengthen our share trend, accelerate our portfolio transformation, simplify our cost structure and return cash to shareholders. In the U.S. core beer share trend improved from Q2 levels as share losses narrowed.

We're seeing growth emerge across several important parts of the portfolio where we have been intentional in our activation and investments. And we're seeing encouraging signs that our new operational approach is helping us compete more effectively across our regions. Our strategy is only in its first year, and these signs give us confidence that it's working well even as the operating environment remains challenging. Through the first half of this year, U.S. industry trends were tracking better than 2025, and our own performance has largely been tracking in line with our previously announced 2026 guidance range.

However, some external headwinds intensified as we moved into the third quarter, and we are continuing to experience category softness in the U.S. increased promotional activity in the U.K. and elevated freight and fuel costs in the U.S. As a result, we are lowering our full year 2026 guidance ranges for MSR, underlying pretax income, underlying EPS and underlying free cash flow. We do expect some of these headwinds to persist into 2027, but our team has been taking actions to reduce their impact.

In addition, Midwest premium costs have significantly impacted our margins. and have remained at levels that we ultimately do not view as sustainable. In a moment, Tracey will detail the drivers of our guidance revisions. But let me reiterate that we are controlling the controllables. And the changes we've already made with Horizon 2030 are beginning to pay off. Here is what matters most. Our strategy is driving results across the business as we navigate persistent industry headwinds.

Our U.S. share trend is moving in the right direction. -- our fastest-growing brands achieving greater scale. We're positioning our portfolio towards areas where the category is growing. We're continuing to invest in our brands to drive volume growth. and we're investing in capabilities to help insulate us from external forces that are outside our control. In the first year of our 5-year strategy, the signals are there. With continued focus and execution, we believe these signals will amplify. While the road ahead may not always be linear, our objective is straightforward. Evolving the business to win more occasions with more consumers of all income levels. And we are also realistic about the work in front of us. So let's get into it.

I'll start with Coors Beer -- in the U.S., Coors Light and Miller Lite were our biggest drivers of share trend improvement from Q2 to Q3, getting these brands back on a strong Gator remains 1 of our highest priorities. While we've seen progress, we're not satisfied with simply narrowing share losses. Our goal is to stabilize these brands and return them to share growth. That's why local execution is such an important part of Horizon 2030.

As I've said before, beer is local. -- consumers in Texas, Wisconsin and New York aren't buying the same year for the same reasons. Just look at what is happening in Wisconsin. I do want to take a moment to congratulate the Milwaukee Brewers on last week's World Series win. The excitement in Milwaukee has been undeniable. And Miller light is proud to be the official beer of the brewers. We've also made the most of this time with strong marketing like giving away cans of Miller light that were brewed the exact moment the brewers won the title. It's a great example of how local relevance creates opportunities to connect consumers to our brands.

Moments like these reinforce while local execution matters. So under Horizon 2030, we're deploying data-driven investments in the U.S. by region. A good example of this approach comes from our South Central region, where stronger alignment between our local teams, distributors and targeted investments contributed to a meaningful improvement in share trends from Q2 to Q3. Second best, share trend improvement from Q2 came from the Great Lakes region, where targeted investment behind Miller Lite defended our competitive position in the market.

With 3 of our 4 U.S. regions showing improved share trends in the third quarter were encouraged that Horizon 2030's focus on local execution is driving results. In the U.S., Coors Live demonstrated the strongest improvement in share trend across our portfolio in Q3 as it continued to narrow its year-over-year share loss. Banquet delivered its 21st consecutive quarter of volume share growth in Q3 and remained a top 5 U.S. beer brand for volume share growth.

Looking ahead, we plan to build on this momentum through a new creative direction for Coors Light, continued investment behind Banquet and the national launch of Coors 00. Moving to the U.K. category pressure and consumer weakness have intensified throughout the year. So we're investing behind the Carling brand to improve its relevance with today's consumer. Earlier this year, we introduced Carling Black Label, our first new premium large launch for this brand family in over a decade. More recently in October, we launched the most significant brand refresh for calling in over 30 years. The brand's bold new look keeps the heritage that drinkers love while capturing the attention of a new generation.

These are exactly the types of investment in co-brands that Horizon 2030 is designed to support, which is also true for how we are approaching our value brands. In under Horizon 2030, value has moved from a supporting role to a strategic priority, especially as consumers feel more macroeconomic pressure. So we are leaning into more commercial support for Miller High Life and Easton Light in the Americas. Today, I want to focus on MillaHighLife. This brand is a gem in our portfolio. And if you think about it, MillaHighLife possesses many of the same qualities that have fueled the success of a brand like Banquet. It has a rich heritage, great packaging and a level of authenticity that cannot be manufactured. It's the champagne of beers after all.

So we're focused on making high life relevant to a new generation of consumers. -- through local activation and retail programs we're showing how the highlight isn't just for special occasions, it's about elevating everyday moments. We're also capitalizing on momentum outside of the U.S., like in Mexico, where High Life ranks in the top 5 of beer brands growing share. In Q3, it's contributing to driving 9% brand volume growth in Mexico and cells at an above premium price point. So while we remain early in our efforts, we believe that our refocused value portfolio has clear potential, and we plan to support our priority brands accordingly.

Turning to above premium. Peroni continues to perform well and remains a strong proof point supporting our premiumization strategy as it continues to gain relevance with consumers. Given its scale Blue Moon softness also continues to have an outsized impact on our performance in the above-premium category, which is why improving the brand's trajectory remains a priority. We are focused on repositioning the brand away from its craft beer routes and into a more modern premium space, which you'll soon begin to see in our marketing and our approach at retail.

Outside North America, we're continuing to see that innovation can be an effective lever in a highly competitive environment. For example, in the U.K. Madrid Lamon has performed well by aligning with regional taste preferences, reinforcing our view that successful innovation starts with local market insights.

Turning to Beyond Beer. Our portfolio today is stronger and more diversified than it was a year ago, and we're seeing that reflected in the performance of Beyond Beer brands like Fevertree and Monaco. FeverTree continues to benefit from increased commercial support and distribution just in time for peak cocktail season, and we're confident in the groundwork we've laid for the upcoming holidays. We're also pleased with the performance of Monaco, which continues to track ahead of our initial expectations. The third quarter of 2026 marked the highest NSR quarter in the brand's history. Monaco is a strong addition to our business and our distributors' businesses and its success shows that we can add mix enhancing growth in a pressured consumer environment. Monaco strength in convenience stores and single-serve cans also shows that consumers are still willing to pay for brands that deliver the right value proposition.

Beyond our portfolio, we are focused on strengthening our capabilities to help support future performance. This includes the launch of projects aimed at fortifying our supply chain and diversifying our source of critical materials including aluminum cans. Both efforts are meant to enhance flexibility and gain greater control over sourcing operations. We have also reinvested in vertical integration to control more of our own can supply. These initiatives have multiyear time lines, but they are essential to building a stronger, more cost competitive company over time.

As we look ahead, we believe these capabilities will help us get ahead of changing consumer and market conditions. Throughout this year, we've continued to make solid progress against our $450 million cost savings program. Those actions have helped offset a portion of the inflationary pressure we've seen across commodities, freight and other input costs. As we move through the year, however, the magnitude of the inflationary headwinds increased to a level that began to outweigh the benefits of our cost actions. We cannot cost cut our way to sustainable growth. Our cost savings program is strengthening the resilience of our business as it was designed to do, delivering stronger long-term performance will require both stronger commercial execution to support top line growth and continued discipline in managing our cost structure.

Ultimately, the actions we've taken this year are intended to preserve flexibility as we execute our strategy, continuing investing in the business and build a stronger company that is positioned to create long-term value. Our capital allocation priorities also remain unchanged. We will continue supporting the opportunities that strengthen our portfolio and improve our competitive position while returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases. Our cash generation and balance sheet gives us choices. And we will remain disciplined in how we deploy capital.

All that being said, we recognize that the work we started with Horizon 2030 is far from finished. But the actions we've taken this year demonstrate our ability to move the organization in the right direction. We can also say many things today that simply were not true a few years ago. We have the balance sheet and the financial flexibility to invest where it matters. For the first time, we are planning for the future with a new approach that fundamentally changes both how we allocate dollars and how we safeguard our business against macroeconomic forces.

With that, I'll turn it over to Tracey to discuss our financial performance and provide the details of our outlook.

Thank you, Rahul. In the third quarter, our results reflected a more challenging category and cost environment than we anticipated at the start of the year, while pricing mix and cost savings actions continue to support our plan. industry softness, freight tightening and commodity-driven input cost pressures intensified as the year progressed. We expect these factors to persist in the near term. With that context in mind, let's review our 3 key metrics.

For Q3, on a year-over-year basis, consolidated net sales revenue of $2.9 billion declined 1.2%. Underlying pretax income of $349 million was down 17.4% and underlying earnings per share of $1.46 decreased 12.6%. Let's first walk through the drivers of the quarter, which will help frame our revised guidance for fiscal 2026. Starting with the top line. Lower financial volumes in the Americas and the U.K. were partially offset by positive net pricing in the Americas and favorable sales mix. The U.S. beer industry declined more than 4% based on our internal estimates. Our U.S. volume share trend improved by almost 20 basis points from Q2 2026. Financial volumes declined by 3%, while brand volumes declined by 4.9%.

Net pricing and positive sales mix drove positive 2% NSR per hectoliter growth in the Americas with favorable mix mainly driven by Monico. EMEA delivered a positive 1.1% in [indiscernible] growth in the quarter, mainly driven by favorable sales mix, while the promotional environment in the U.K. remained competitive.

Turning to profitability. Underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 8.1%, mainly driven by continued higher Midwest premium and aluminum costs, freight market tightening and fuel prices. The Midwest premium alone drove approximately $50 million of year-on-year cost increase in the third quarter, representing roughly 40% of the year-over-year profit decline. As expected, MG&A was down 7.4%, largely due to targeted cost reductions in marketing and cost savings initiatives, offset by higher technology expenses.

Turning to our balance sheet. Our net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio was 2.53x at the end of the quarter, modestly rather below 2.5x target. Over the last several years, we've worked deliberately to strengthen the balance sheet and improve our financial flexibility. That work is particularly important in an environment like this. While we expect commodity and freight costs to remain elevated in the near term, our balance sheet remains strong, which we believe gives us capacity to manage near-term volatility while continuing to invest behind our long-term priorities. That flexibility is also reflected in our capital allocation approach.

We continue to prioritize investments that will strengthen the long-term performance of our business, while also returning capital to shareholders through a durable dividend and our share repurchase program. We continue to generate strong cash flow. And year-to-date, we have returned to shareholders $273 million through dividends and $250 million through share repurchases. Since the plan was announced in October 2023, we have repurchased 16% of our Class B shares outstanding, and we have $2.3 billion remaining under our authorization.

With that, let's discuss the drivers of our updated 2026 guidance. We now expect net sales revenue to decline minus 1% to minus 2% on a constant currency basis versus our previously guided range of flat plus or minus 1%. While the U.S. industry continues to track modestly better than 2025 on a year-to-date basis, that improvement largely reflects the stronger start to the year.

More recent trends have been softer. Our revised top line guidance assumes that soft industry volume trends in both the U.S. and EMEA APAC and promotional pressure in the U.K. will persist through the remainder of 2026. We continue to expect an annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America, in line with the average historical range, and our assumptions for 9 months of NSR contribution from Monaco remain unchanged.

Year-to-date, we've seen quarterly variability in financial versus brand volume trends that has mainly been driven by shipment timing. We still anticipate the convergence of financial volumes toward brand volumes in the balance of the year on the assumption that U.S. financial and brand volume trends will largely align.

Moving down the P&L. We now expect underlying pretax income to decline minus 21% to minus 24%, which equates to approximately $80 million at the midpoint on a constant currency basis as compared to our previously guided range of minus 15% to minus 18%. As Rah mentioned earlier, we're expecting lower profitability for the balance of the year than our year-to-date performance will imply. This is largely due to the impact of higher commodity and logistics costs.

For the full year, we continue to expect Midwest premium costs to exceed the prior year by approximately $113 million. To put that into perspective, the year-over-year increase in this surcharge loan equates to roughly 10 percentage points of underlying pretax income impact or more than $0.50 of underlying earnings per share at the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. We now expect underlying earnings per share to decline minus 16% to minus 19% as compared to our previously guided range of minus 11% to minus 15%. We have also updated our underlying free cash flow guidance range to $1 billion, plus or minus 10% versus our previously guided range of $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%. This was mainly driven by the reduction in our previously guided underlying pretax income range. All other guidance drivers remain unchanged.

Looking ahead, we currently expect several of these inflationary pressures to continue into 2027. On the Midwest premium specifically, we do have hedge coverage in place for 2027. However, as we have previously discussed, the Midwest premium remains difficult and expensive to hedge, and our exposure is never fully hedged. We expect market conditions for commodities to remain dynamic into 2027. On the productivity side, the previously announced restructuring actions in EMEA are now producing benefits that will extend into 2027 and beyond.

Separately, certain brand owners have sought to terminate their distribution agreements with Coors Distributing Company, our wholly owned distribution Colorado. CDC is pursuing legal actions to enforce its right under those agreements. We don't expect this to have a material impact on our fiscal 2026 results and the impact on 2027 will depend on the outcome of these legal actions. We will provide an update as the situation develops. We'll provide our formal 2027 outlook on our fourth quarter call as is normal practice.

In the meantime, we remain focused on the factors within our control: productivity, disciplined revenue management investing in our brands and prudent capital allocation. We recognize that any individual year 2026 included can be significantly affected by the external cost and category environment. That does not change our commitment to our growth objectives or the actions we are taking to strengthen the business, and we remain committed to our medium-term growth objectives.

In closing, this has been a challenging operating environment. But at the same time, we are seeing tangible benefits from our actions. We continue to benefit from a portfolio of enduring brands a productivity program that creates both savings and reinvestment capacity and a disciplined capital allocation approach. Together, we believe these attributes give us the financial resilience and flexibility to navigate near-term pressures while continuing to invest in the long-term evolution of the business.

With that, we will take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

Great. I hope you're doing well. So the updated guidance implies a relatively wide range of outcomes for the fourth quarter on the bottom line, a pretty challenging exit rate. So maybe could you walk through kind of the puts and takes out for you the high end versus the low end. But maybe related, I would love to understand how we should be thinking about this exit rate as we begin to kind of adjust our models for '27.

Maybe just some guardrails in terms of what we know today. And I asked is just in the context, it doesn't seem like category trends are improving. It sounds like Tracey to your point, inflation is volatile and persist. So trying to think about how you manage these headwinds or balancing these headwinds versus setting up the business for better performance over the longer term?

Peter. Thanks for the question. So let me help break down your first part of the question, which is around the guidance, the wide range, et cetera, and then we can talk a little bit about '27. So the 4 pieces maybe I call out is let's talk about the top line first. So you talked about the category challenges in the U.S. or the performance of the category. I think that definitely we're seeing that and expecting that to continue for the balance of the -- if you look at our share trends, we are making good progress and improving our share trends every quarter, but we know we have more work to do there. And then the last piece on the top line I call out is our EMEA APAC business.

The first H1 of this year has been challenging, and the team's done a good job of putting all the right commercial pressure now and you're seeing the progress in Q3, but Q4 is a big quarter for EMEA APAC in November, December with Christmas is a big quarter. So those are the big drivers, I would say, for the top line. The added piece on the bottom line is the pressure on commodities, predominantly freight and fuel. If you think about this year coming in, we understood the pressures on aluminum, mid best premium. We have all the right actions, whether it's around the hedging, around the cost savings initiatives but we do see that playing out for the balance of the year in terms of the inflationary pressures.

There are a couple of other elements in terms of just timing, shipment timing and financial volume and brand volume. But all of that will get caught up by the end of the year. And then there is a little bit on timing in terms of G&A. So hopefully, that gives you a sense on just Q4 timing and the range, just given the volatility and some variables as [Technical Difficulty] Peter, the way I will say is, obviously, we'll give got business. But it goes back to what the core foundations of Horizon 2030, the category has been volatile look this year between Q1 and -- what's important for us to make sure our portfolio is leading in different parts of the category getting stronger, given where consumers are feeling pressure. We're making good progress on above premium and beyond beer.

Progress we've made this year in terms of transforming the cost inflation and the rate levels probably today [Technical Difficulty]

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Thank you for your patience. We will now continue the call. Management team. Please begin when you're ready.

Thank you, Jen. Peter, are you still with us? Okay. Thank you, Peter. I know we talk a lot about resilience. So I guess we saw some resilience for 7 minutes. So thank you, everybody, for hanging in there. Peter, I don't know where we got dropped off, but maybe just address your question. Your question was around the wide range, Q4 guidance and how do we think about it going into '27. So I'd call out a couple of things as we think about our business.

If you look at our year-to-date performance, we've been managing our business very carefully and executing to the guidance we laid out as we look at closing out this year. On the top line, maybe just 2 things to call out. One is our EMEA APAC business, right? -- strong progress in Q3, but Q4 is a big quarter for EMEA, APAC, and we do see that volatility continue into Q4, especially given November, December being such big months for that business.

In the U.S., the category challenges in Q3 was pretty similar to Q2, but we do see that playing out in Q4. Now the good part is our share trends continue to get better. we're not where we are not where we want to be in terms of growth of our core brands, but the trends do get better. So I would call those 3 big factors as we look at our top line and then obviously implicated on the bottom line, -- and the other main piece on the bottom line is that the cost inflation side. We've taken a number of steps in mitigating the cost inflation throughout the year, around aluminum, Midwest premium.

But the freight and fuel landscape is what into Q4, we think will continue. So those are the drivers in terms of, I would say, Q4. Now there's some things around timing. -- with financial volumes and brand volumes and shipments. But those will get caught up by the end of the year. But hopefully, that gives you a sense of the guidance and the drivers for the balance of the year.

Your question about 2027, we obviously will share more and give guidance in February. But I go back to what we're working on as a total business, right? On the Horizon 2030 is, one, we want to make sure we transform our portfolio and really move into above premium and beyond beer, and we're making progress on there. On the Coors brands, we want to make sure they are healthy, right, strong and resilient. And a we made progress. We have more work definitely there, and I think we've been pretty transparent on that. And then the cost savings initiatives the volatility in our -- in the inflationary landscape will continue, but we're going to lean in from a cost savings perspective.

So -- more to come as we lay out '27 guidance, but hopefully, that gives you a perspective of how we're thinking about our business going into next year.

Your next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

I guess a couple of things on -- obviously, we all are aware of what's happening with input cost and stuff, and we're hearing so much about cost savings and cost savings. But -- the company over the years has had several of these plans, $500 million, $600 million over 5 years, and I think you've maybe done that 3 or 4 times with another 1 pending. All of those had the intention of reinvestment back into the brands in order to change the top line trajectory. And it hasn't really worked so far.

So why would this time be different from what we've had before, which were cost savings that are intended to drive top line from reinvestment.

Thank you for that question. And I completely understand the background in context. So here's how I would break it down, Kaumil, there's an element of cost and there's an element of that investment, right, making sure you have the right dollars. But you understand the category and the, call it, just the different elements of the category. So for us, -- there's 2 parts to this. One, making sure we have the right portfolio. But then 2 is how we are executing our plan around this. right?

This -- I talk a lot about beer being local. I talk about executing at a granular level, making sure we're very clear where we understand our consumers and customers. So 1 is about making sure we have the capacity and the dollars to do it, but then it is about how we're using those dollars to execute. And I'll leave you with 3 main things, right? One, we have to stay closer to our consumers in the context of occasions. Occasions are what is driving and you see that even with our portfolio for brands like Banquet you would look at that and we can all question, why is it growing? But occasions matter, Two, what matters is clarity of brand positioning?

What is these brands stand for. And I think we are definitely leaning a lot more into that. You're seeing that with OstiBanquet, Peroni, FiverTree, Monaco, even with Coors Light, and some of our value portfolios, value portfolio. And then the third part is -- I would call out is our differentiated approach on making sure we're looking at our markets in a very local way. And that's not just about investment. It is about making sure we're using the right tactics, making sure we have the right resources and people. I know I highlighted in some of my comments about some of the actions we're taking differently in each of our different regions.

So -- if you think about our plan, Horizon 2030, it is not just about getting 1 brand and driving it, but it is taking our total portfolio but how we change our operating model is equally and as important in Horizon 2030. So our goal is to continue to make sure we drive that investment in our business throughout the balance sheet and P&L. But how we operate, right? I've talked a lot about local accountability, but that operating model change is also what is the key element of our plan going forward.

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

Tracey, can you just maybe frame the CDC dispute. What's happened to date in -- what are you trying to resolve? And the reason I asked is because you made a comment in the presentation about no impact this year, but how do we size this if litigation doesn't prove successful for CDC going into next year? And then this is just a follow-up, but there's been some comments around inflation going into next year, and it's not just Midwest premium and aluminum at energy prices specifically. What's the sensitivity to Molson Coors earnings to energy prices just given some of the volatility that we've seen in recent days.

So let me talk about CDC and Tracey, if you can talk through about the energy sensitivity side of it. So Chris, a couple of things on CDC. You have 1 self-owned distribution business in the United States in the State of Colorado. I would say we're pretty proud of how that team has executed over the years with all suppliers, right? And it's pretty much award-winning in the network across all suppliers. As you could imagine, I can't say a lot about the legal dispute of the actions we are taking. We had a good win in the last few weeks, but we'll let that legal piece play out.

If you think about the impact of this, we talked about there's no impact of this. We don't believe there's any impact of this in '26 and in '27, we will have to see how the legal work stream plays out. I think for us, what we are focused on, it's business as usual. The team continues to execute on all suppliers -- and we'll see how the legal process plays out. And when we have that information, we'll definitely share that.

On the inflation side, I would say it best premium is definitely a big area of focus as we think about our business going forward. I know your question of sensitivity I'll have into Tracey, but what's important for us to make business resilient, right? And I spoke about this in the context of having a diverse supply base, leading into vertical integration. -- making sure we can control our value chain in the right way. So for us, those become important priorities as we go into '27. But Tracey, do you want to address the energy piece?

Yes. So look, the biggest impact to us has been on the packaging materials, particularly Midwest premium and aluminum. From an energy piece, we also treat that, obviously, as a commodity and we hedge what we can. We use a lot of natural gas as well in our breweries. But I would say from a fuel point of view, yes, it does have an impact for sure, not just on us but also on the consumer, which is the concern. But the biggest impact for us this quarter has been on the logistics side.

And the fact that the freight market has tightened so much despite the fact that we do have long-term contracts, we have had to go out into the market. and procure those logistics at spot, which has been higher as I think you've heard a lot of CPG companies talking about fuel and logistics costs. So as we look into next year, I mean, we do expect some of these higher commodity costs and some of the high input costs to persist. But as Rahul said, we have this hedging program, which has helped mitigate the inflation, but also really leaning into our cost savings program to help us in the short term, for sure, to mitigate some of the very high costs that we see, which have been unprecedented, as you've heard us speak many times, particularly of our metals.

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

I wanted to circle back on performance in the Americas and maybe in Canada, specifically -- that had been, I think, a market of strength that has kind of helped you outperform some of the scanner data and some of the modeling that we all do, but it seems to have taken kind of a turn this quarter. And just wanted to unpack that a little bit more if there was anything particular you saw -- it was a comp issue? Just some more detail there would be appreciated. .

So let me address the Americas as a whole, Peter, and then I know your question specifically on Canada. So -- if we look at our business in the U.S., we talked about share trend improvement. And that was across our core brands, our value brands, -- and if you think about our Beyond Beer agenda, we definitely continue to see strong progress there in terms of growth with brands like FeverTree, Monaco. So I would say definitely moving our business forward in terms of both the portfolio transformation, but also making it stronger. In Canada, the absolute numbers that you see is a function of the category. .

We are -- have a pretty broad portfolio in Canada. We feel very good about the portfolio. We are the #1 lite brand in Canada with Coors Light. We see good momentum in the Molentric mark. -- above premium portfolio with Milli and Coors original and our focus in Beyond with or Selzer, are in a good position. So what you did see in Q3 was the category weakness, and that was what, I would say, are similar drivers around affordability and is consumer sentiment.

But beyond that, there's -- I wouldn't call out anything specific, Peter, in Canada at this time.

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

This is JD on Robert. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the competitive dynamics in the U.K. You noted that category pressure and consumer weakness has intensified throughout the year. But maybe could you clarify if there's been an incremental step up so far in 4Q.

And then maybe any additional color on expectations for the pricing and promo environment there in 2027.

So if you look at the U.K. business, we've talked about our port business this year. But if you step back, our U.K. business has done a great job on building out our portfolio, both in the above premium but also making sure our core brands are strong, right? But this market is competitive. And there's a number of different players. And I think coming into this year, we saw those actions being taken, both in terms of the co-brands and in the above-premium space. And as we go on to the summer, I would say we started taking the right commercial actions to react to that.

If you look at our core brands, which is Carling, right, it's a big platform there. We've had our first innovation. We've had our first brand refresh. And we've taken some decisions around ABB with our brands. So we're definitely, I would say, in a much better place, being competitive on the core side. the above premium de is obviously a big brand for us, but we are seeing progress in brands like Staropramen with our cost trademark -- so I would say we now have the right commercial pressures. You see it in our Q3 results. in terms of NSR per hectoliter around pricing in the U.K. in APAC, I mean it is a competitive landscape.

We want to make sure we are have all the right commercial pressure in the U.K. And we see that trajectory continue to improve in Q4. Now November, December are big months in the U.K. and therefore, we're going to see how that is and that's where the volatility comes in. But we do believe we have the right actions now to stay competitive and have the right commercial pressure in the U.K. closing out this year.

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Grundy with BNP Pariba.

Great. A question on the portfolio and strategic considerations. We're seeing a number of staples companies prone portfolio, exit underperforming brands or exit business lines altogether. You've talked about a number of them on the call, and that is some brands are perhaps not where you'd like them to be at the moment. The category has been challenged now for the better part of 2 decades, those challenges that have worsened really in the past few years.

So I understand there's considerations around scale, stranded overhead, as leakage, among other things, -- but it would be great to kind of get your updated thoughts on the potential opportunity to prune the portfolio in certain spaces as a lever, if you will, to accelerate your transformation strategy of the portfolio in addition to the tuck-in M&A. So I appreciate your thoughts there.

Absolutely, this is an area that we think about, Kevin, in terms of where are we going to put our resources and energy around the portfolio. So if you step back and look at the decisions we made both this year and recently is we have taken decisions to trim down our portfolio in spaces that we don't think we have the ability to win and also infrastructure where we probably have to wind down. So examples that call out is in our EMEA business, we just announced closure of a couple of breweries -- smaller breweries in the Americas. We did that last year.

And in terms of the portfolio, we take that approach of making sure where we don't have the ability to scale. That we are taking those decisions to exit. The question around, if you think about our portfolio and the 4 buckets we talk about core value segment, we also want to make sure that we are competitive with consumers that are looking for a pretty broad consideration and based on their purchasing decisions. So when we talk about value, we are focusing on 2 brands, High Life and Keystone and making sure we can execute that and focus on it.

So as part of portfolio as part of our portfolio strategy, we are being clear on what role does each part of our brands play. What is the level of investment in those brands and then how we're executing against it. So we'll continue to look at those. And where it doesn't make sense. We will continue to look at exiting either brands or infrastructure that makes us stronger for the future.

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Kirk with Ross Capital Partners.

Rahul, in the press release, you highlighted that Horizon 2030 is not yet scaled enough to offset the headwinds experienced in the third quarter. And I guess the way that's worded, it implies it will, at some point, offset the headwinds. So when would you expect the program to be scaled enough to offset? And what more does it take to get there?

When we laid out the strategy, Bill, we called out 4 things in a way to measure progress and measure success, right? One was our core brands, they have to be stable and healthy. And I talk a lot about share trends improvement, but the fact is we haven't got them to be stable and growing share. So that is definitely something as a team. We are very focused on given the size of those brands in our portfolio. Two, when we talk about transforming the portfolio, we were something like sub 2% a few years ago when we're approaching 10-ish, and we've added to that this year with additions like Monaco.

So that part of that our business needs to scale and we need to make sure that the growth rates are sustaining that. So that is 1 area we will continue to do. I feel good about bringing those brands into our portfolio, integrating them, executing against them, but we have to scale. The third important part was the cost management. Just given the inflationary landscape, we knew we were walking into earlier this year, right? We knew the mid best premium issues, we knew the aluminum issues and the cost saving was important to mitigate some of that risk and create some flexibility in our business.

And that one, I would say, is a continued work in progress in dealing with volatility. And then the last piece is we want to make sure we are returning cash to shareholders. So your question of scale -- excuse me, a -- scaling of our business. I mean, the first 2 elements are what's important in making sure we have resilience in the top line. and then cost savings and the initiatives we are taking around our supply chain is to make sure we have resilience in, call it, the COGS and the cost side of our business to navigate any sort of volatility.

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Would love to just get some thoughts on kind of the opposite of Kevin's questions in question in a way. Just sort of how do you see your right to win and where the growth opportunities are -- and some of the context for it is just with the category dynamics, there's lots of the fastest-growing brands that are privately owned -- there's also been a shift in recent years to high ABV that is gaining consumer traction, but is category dilutive certainly from a volume perspective.

And so just curious maybe what -- how you think about organic growth opportunities versus M&A? How many more monitors are there to come? Is that the answer? Just give us a sense maybe of where you can really drive incremental growth?

So if we -- I think if I break your question up maybe into 2 parts. One is the right to win and then the, call it, the growth opportunity. So if you take on the right to win is, we have an infrastructure in our core markets, I would say, is best of class, right? And we do operate in some of the best profit pools. So whether it's production infrastructure, distribution, retail execution, -- and we've proven that with some of the adds we've had in our portfolio, things like fever things like Monaco way, we have brands that had some scale but we can take that and really accelerate that scale, right?

So you talk about Monaco. I think I've mentioned this before that it's 5 states in 1 particular channel. And so that gives us a great platform to take and move it forward or whether it was Fevertree where we could take the on-premise strength and really scale there. So for us, right to win is definitely leveraging our infrastructure, leveraging our capability making sure we can take a portfolio that makes sense for our customers and retailers.

Now your second part of the question is how many of them are out there in private company and high ABV. And I think that's where we want to make sure we are staying disciplined. I mean everybody here knows the flavor category. It is proven to be volatile and therefore, we want to make sure we are being smart about how we deploy our capital and not just chase top line, right? I think that's 1 thing we've been disciplined about in Monaco, again, great example, [Vinland] in around for over a decade, had got some scale and then we can accelerate the scale. So -- we definitely want to keep leveraging our balance sheet to deploy and where it makes sense.

We want to stay disciplined on how we deploy that capital. But we do think that, that opportunity exists in I wouldn't say a lot of subcategories, but in a few categories where we do have the right to win, where our infrastructure does enable us to win big. So we'll stay disciplined, build those augment our portfolio with that and then use that to make sure that we have the right growth drivers while we stay focused on keeping our big brands stable and healthy.

Your final question comes from the line of Drew Levine with JPMorgan.

Rahul, I just wanted to ask around the pricing environment, clearly, commodities have been a material headwind this year. It sounds like Tracy that you expect it to continue to be a headwind in the near term and into 2027. A number of CPG companies have talk to incremental inflation-driven pricing actions yet Molson Coors is sticking with the historical algorithm, it seems like at least for this year.

I'm just curious when you see for potential incremental pricing opportunities into 2027 to recover some of this gross margin headwind where Americas is down several hundred basis points over the past couple of years.

Thank you for that question. Drew, you're absolutely right. The way we think about our business is a couple of things, right? One, how can we drive efficiency to make sure we can handle the inflationary headwinds, right? So I know I've talked a lot about that. So I believe that. But your question around the top line and how do we think about both pricing and mix. So for us, the portfolio transformation piece becomes super important, right? So brands like FeverTree, Monaco are high NSR per hectoliter gives us flexibility to absorb some of the inflationary headwinds in different ways.

So we've talked a lot about making sure that our portfolio is moving in that direction in terms of mix perspective. On the pricing one, it is a competitive landscape and we want to make sure we are competitive in the context of our brands. So this is why the Hanger portfolio that spans things like the value portfolio and then the core is important because then we can flex those levers in terms of pricing. We're going to see how this evolves into '27. But right now, yes, we have taken that decision to make sure we stay competitive in.

And this is a very local context, right? These are going to be by market, by brand. How do we make sure we are leveraging the pricing lever to the best of its ability, but staying competitive with our portfolio as we navigate our portfolio transformation work.

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Great. So I'm pleased to welcome Rahul Goyal for the first time in Boston. So thank you so much. It's your first time here since becoming Molson Coors CEO just about a year ago. And of course, CFO, Tracey Joubert, thank you so much for being a consistent supporter of the conference and for always giving us your time when you're here.

So I want to start big picture with the strategy. So when you introduced Horizon 2030, the message was that TAP needed to rewire the business for a more volatile consumer and category environment. You're now halfway through the first year of that strategy. Where do you have the most conviction that the operating model is working? And where do you think the process might need to be more iterative?

Yes. Thank you, Lauren. First, thanks for having me. Thanks for hosting this. So if you think in -- over the last 1 year and just our category as a whole, I think when we laid out Horizon 2030, there were 2 key priorities we set. First was making sure we transform our portfolio. And I feel we're making good progress on that, but we have to transform the portfolio into places where consumers are leaning into. That's for us is in the beyond beer space. And then two was making sure that we're getting sharper, focused on executing within beer. And that's where you talk about the operating model changes.

So in the last year, we've been pretty busy on scaling our beyond beer agenda. We started with less than 2% a few years ago. We're approaching 10-ish percent. So that is something we got to keep driving with scale. And then in beyond beer, we got to make sure our brands show up differently. And so we made pretty clear choices on our portfolio, whether it was core, whether it was value. But then how we execute that portfolio in the market is what's going to be different, right? I was convinced a year ago, and I'm convinced even more now that this business, beer, is very local.

And so while we have brands that are across the board, we have to execute local, and that gives me confidence, right? I mean you saw some of the changes we made in the value portfolio. We're seeing improvements there. We continue to lean into brands like Banquet, Peroni, Fever-Tree, Topo. And then to your point of some places we know it's a little more stuck that we need time. We talk about brands like Miller Lite, Blue Moon. I mean some of these things just require a little bit more time, but the playbook is the right one. We've got to make sure we're clear on what these brands stand for because once you're clear on that and then we can execute locally, I think we can get these brands back into being healthy first and then growth.

So I feel good about the portfolio choices we made, the transformation we are on, the operating model, obviously, 6, 9 months into it with respect to execution. And then obviously know that there's a few more things we need to be turning around. The only other thing that I'd add probably is inflation has not been our friend. It wasn't our friend earlier this year. And so that's the one area that we got to keep a watching brief on. Obviously, we announced our cost management program, executing against it, but inflation, I would say, hasn't been our friend.

Yes. Okay. I'll come back to that. So you've emphasized making the business more local, like you just mentioned, and -- but also more accountable, which, I think, is interesting. So where is that having the biggest impact so far? And I'm just curious what you think like distributors or retailers would say or are saying to you that they're already different in how TAP is showing up today versus a year ago?

Yes. No, absolutely. I mean some of the changes we made earlier this year was driving accountability as close to the market. I mean that involves the full P&L, making sure we're looking at top and bottom line, making sure incentives are reoriented in terms of being local. So when I talk about local, this is not just about the brand and the portfolio, right? There's an element of that of how these brands show up or which parts of our portfolio shows up there, but it is also about holding people and making sure execution is local. Your piece around the perception with distributors, I would say and our distributor network would say we are moving faster. I mean this has been a volatile category year again.

But in a way how we've reacted, whether it's on promotional activity, whether it's on pricing actions, whether it's on brand innovations, right? So if you think about some of the innovation launches we've done earlier this year, whether it was in our value portfolio with Keystone, whether it was High Life in particular states, whether it was, again, Coors 0.0 in the Northeast. I mean, all of that was a function of making sure we are closest to our customer, closest to our retailers. So I feel pretty good that if you ask our distributors, they will say that we are reacting faster. We are pivoting faster on where we see the consumer moving to.

Again, Monaco was another, I would say, a good example. We knew we needed to get into the RTD space. It is a crowded space. It is a volatile space. So how do we enter in a space that makes sense from a consumer perspective, but more importantly, makes sense from a network perspective. And I would say most of our distributors -- all of our distributors say Monaco has been a good add for them.

Okay. That's great. You started the year seeing a healthier beer category in the U.S. than in 2025, but Q2 slowed pretty meaningfully. So what have you learned about the kind of consumer and category environment from that swing? And as you -- among indicators like fuel prices, consumer sentiment, channel impact behavior? Like what gives you the clearest read on whether the incremental pressure that you've seen from a category standpoint was temporary or something that's maybe more persistent?

Yes. I think this is -- I know this is a question everybody love to ask in the context of long term, short term. And if you think about it, coming into this year, there was a sense of confidence that last year's challenges are behind us from a category perspective and Q1 played out a little bit in that. And then all the factors you called out probably had an impact into Q2 and stuff. The pieces we think about and look at closely is consumer buying patterns. So let me just maybe specifically call out channel stuff. So we saw progress in the dollar channel and convenience, right? I mean, usually large-format channels, the Walmarts, et cetera, people do the math, right? People do the math of a $30 purchase or a $40 purchase, what is it per can.

But still folks are choosing the dollar channel and convenience, right? That's where you saw consumers leaning in pack sizes, singles and small packs. That's where folks are leaning into. Large packs has historically been stable. And in Q2, we saw a little bit of a decline. So it was economically driven. It was consumer sentiment driven. And I think that's what we're going to -- that gives me clarity that if the consumer is stable and there's clarity, we may not be at the minus 1s and 2s that we had pre-COVID, right? We may be at a new normal. But this volatility, I think, puts a little bit more burden on the category than anybody wants.

Yes. Okay. So how has that maybe changed the way you're thinking about the second half of the year versus original expectations? I mean, any perspective closer in, what the balance of the summer looks like with the late Labor Day, but just perspective.

Yes. No, for us, I know we think about the category within our business, but we focus on the things we control, right? And for me, the fact that we have such a broad portfolio gives me confidence. That gives me the ability to play within above premium to value. So if you think about the consumer, I mean, there's a consumer that's happy to be in the Fever-Tree place, in the Peroni place, if you think about on-premise, I mean -- so we have a portfolio that we can meet the consumer there. We also have a portfolio that needs to meet the consumer in the value space, right, with Keystone, with High Life, where these brands mean something, but they can still engage.

So for us in the second half of the year is we control what the controllables we have is we have a pretty broad portfolio. How do we make sure we're executing against that across the brands? And then the category will remain volatile. Where it settles is a little bit of macro issues, but there's so much we have to do, right? I mean we're making good progress on things like Banquet, even on Coors Light. We're making good progress on the value. But we know also recognize there's a few brands that are stuck that we got to find a way to unstuck there. I know that's not a word for policy. But we know we have work to do on a couple of those brands.

Okay. The other sticky thing has been inflation. So I'm going to -- so let's maybe talk about that. I mean the one through line we've had through the 1.5 days of this conference so far has been increased logistics and freight costs. So just wanted to get an update from you guys on that front.

Yes. So I'll just add. So we have seen the freight market tightening. I think everyone is talking about that. And certainly, fuel prices were looking okay until the conflict started in Iran, and we've seen those fuel prices go up. So look, we do have long-term contracts with various carriers. But we are seeing a lot more carriers not taking our lanes and moving to the spot market. So we have had to go a lot more into the spot market than what we typically do in a normal sort of year. So we're managing that. It is a headwind for us as we go into the second half of this year. But we're managing it through -- we do hedge fuel.

So we're managing it through our hedge program. We're managing it through long-term relationships that we have with long-term carriers, making sure that we are doing what's right for them, but also, they're doing what's right for us. And then through our cost savings programs. So our cost savings program is across all of our P&L line items, but there's quite a large part that comes out of COGS. And so through our cost savings program, we're trying to mitigate some of these additional headwinds that we are seeing.

Okay. I'm going to switch back to longer term. So if beer, though, does remain weaker for longer, I mean you said perhaps it's a new normal, it's not down 1% to 2%, it's something more than that. How much of Horizon 2030 remains achievable? And like what levers do you pull to kind of get there? Or flip side like what would you need to do most to adapt the strategy for something that is a tougher category backdrop?

Yes. I mean I think the foundation of what we laid is the and, right? We have to transform our portfolio. I go back to approaching 10-ish percent. I mean that part of our business needs to be big. I mean today, it is growing, right? It is, I would say, a big part of our business, but it needs to be bigger and meaningful. So the category context of beer, we got to do the transformation part in a big way. So whether that's in RTDs, in flavors, in beyond beer, in non-alc, I mean, those are the things that are important. The other thing, and I know I'm speaking to folks in the finance world, but we got to do our job of bringing people back to beer.

So I say that for a minute only because if we are not bringing people back into beer, then nobody else is. So we will continue to champion beer. But within that, we've got to play our portfolio right, right? So in the short and medium term is we have a portfolio that is pretty broad in the spectrum of above premium, core mainstream and value. So we can play the right things, right? I mean we think about a brand like Banquet, if you get the right positioning, what the brand stands for, you can get growth.

And so for us, it is figuring those pieces out within the portfolio we have while we are working on the transformation. Beyond that, it is making sure we are focused and disciplined on our cost, right? I mean all of this is in the context of being disciplined on the cost side and then making sure for our shareholders that we are being disciplined in terms of capital allocation, returning cash to shareholders. So for me, it is transformation, taking care of beer and then being disciplined in how we run the business.

Okay. Let's talk about some more specific elements of the portfolio. And you've mentioned, you've teased a few bits, but to go deeper. So let's start with kind of core beer economic foundation of the company. I think a big influence on investor confidence in the story is on seeing more stable market shares overall. So that's what I wanted to start here. You've mentioned some regional pressure for Miller Lite. So I just wanted to get maybe your assessment of the situation. Is it a matter of media, execution, price pack? Is it something deeper in the brand proposition? And really how long should investors give Miller Lite like before -- how long should we give the plan before we start to worry?

No, absolutely, that's a fair question. So if you think about our core brands and most of our geographies, but if you think about the U.S., we obviously have Coors and Miller Lite, Coors Light. And I think the Coors trademark within Banquet, even the Coors Light itself, I think we've done a good job of making sure it's very clear. But we have to keep doing more on that. So you're going to keep seeing us show up in ways where we are talking and connecting with current consumers, but then also making sure we're recruiting new consumers into our trademark.

You're rightly so, Miller Lite has been stuck. And we understand the issue pretty clearly of where Miller Lite is stuck, where -- what we need to do. So we don't think it's a complete rehaul of the brand, right? Miller Lite has historically always stood for sociability around legendary moments, around Miller Time, and it's talked about taste, right? And if you think about we leaned into this year, it's predominantly around sociability. So you'll see us continue to lean into Miller Lite in different ways from a campaign perspective, building on sociability, but also taste. But it is about local execution, right? I mean if you think about share losses and you guys look at Circana and Nielsen data, Miller Lite has a historical stronghold in the Midwest.

And that's where we're getting competitively the most pressure. So I think it does go back to my point of while we have these big national brands, this business is very local. So we've got to be winning every city, every state in different ways. And that's where we have multiple levers to play, right, whether it is local price promotion, whether it is campaigns from a local activation perspective. And then obviously, national campaigns help in terms of that. So we don't think Miller Lite, there's nothing fundamentally wrong in terms of a complete reboot. We got to build on what the brand stands for, but then this is about local execution.

Okay. Just flipping to the U.K. because Carling seems to be in a similar situation, maybe to Miller Lite, more -- contending with more competition. But it seems like the pressure is only building in that market, Madri now being impacted by higher promotions in the second quarter after having been such a continuous and regular success story. So how are you thinking about the U.K. landscape and kind of the path forward?

Yes. So if you think about the U.K., and we flagged this in our Q2 earnings out of EMEA and APAC, U.K. is where the main competitive pressure is. It's a consumer dynamics and category, but also competitive. We've had a great run with Madri. Madri has been a strong brand for us, above premium. And the success breeds competition. So we got a few things that are coming at us from a competitive perspective. And we get -- we understand that, and we have the right plans to attack that from a Madri perspective, whether it's campaigns over the summer, innovation, also a total portfolio approach for above premium, right, Staropramen, et cetera.

Core brands, which is what you called out Carling is that market has changed. The market has changed. The way competition is using ABV, which is again in the public domain, has changed. And so we needed to make sure that we are competitive in that context. So we launched a new higher ABV Carling brand, Carling Black Label. We have now transitioned Carling to make sure we are competitive with our peers. And it's going to be a competitive context. I go back to Carling, the core brands segment has been under compression for a number of years.

But we were able to protect that and execute that well while we were premiumizing in the U.K. And just given the category pressures means competition is high, and I think we've got the right actions now to react to that. We also implemented our cost savings program in EMEA, APAC earlier this year. We just closed that out. It takes a little longer to put all of that in motion. So we feel pretty good about the actions we've taken now to be competitive, both in the mainstream and in the above premium.

Okay. On the flip side, you've got Banquet, I'll come back to U.S., right? So it seems to be, I'd almost frame it like teaching the organization and maybe the industry that like a big established brand can find new relevance. What parts of the playbook from Banquet success do you think are transferable more broadly to your other brands? And like what are parts that maybe are a bit unique to Banquet?

Yes. I mean if you think about Banquet, I'd break it up into a couple of things, some of the learnings that we are taking from Banquet in terms of how do we make sure we're true and defined to what Banquet means and stands for, right, the essence of the brand. And I think that's what you're going to see us lean into as we think about that in the context of our bigger brands, right? We just had the conversation on Miller Lite. Are we very clear on what Miller Lite stands for? Are we communicating that clearly to consumers and making sure it resonates with consumers? So there's definitely learnings from Banquet into that.

Then there's a question of execution, right? I mean we talk about distribution and distribution gains we're making on Banquet quarter-over-quarter, but we're still under-indexed to Coors Light. So there is so much more runway on that. And you want to be careful on that distribution because sometimes it's easy to get after distribution. But if you don't have the velocity, there's usually a backpedaling down the road. And so that's some of the learnings we're taking with some of our other brands to say, okay, how do we make sure we expand brands with the right level of focus on velocity along with distribution.

And then I think the last part was what's differentiated for Banquet. In a way, Banquet is special, right? I mean Banquet is the -- in a way, the code of the West. It is a special meaning. I think the teams have done a great job of honing that with what's happening in culture, connecting that. So I'd love to take that same story for my bigger brands, but sometimes this is only -- that's Banquet's story to keep.

Yes. Okay. Do you think it could become a double-digit percentage of the U.S. business?

Absolutely. Yes. I mean, again, for some of you, Banquet used to be that, right? If you go back to the '70s and et cetera, Banquet used to be bigger than -- and I say this because, again, I go back to these brands, they need to be clear on what they stand for. We've got to execute against that. So I absolutely think Banquet has a lot of potential runway.

Okay. Great. Another big shift with the strategy is an increased focus on value brands. So how is your perspective evolved on the role of brands like Keystone and High Life, particularly in a more value-conscious environment? And do you think it's a real growth driver and profit lever? Or is it more a way to kind of stem market share losses?

Yes. No, it's a great point. So if you think about value, there was 2 reasons why we leaned into value. First was from a consumer lens perspective. Consumers are looking for brands that means something, but at a price point that is affordable, right? So that was an important aspect. The second aspect was scale. I mean if you just think about our value portfolio, right, High Life, Keystone and a bunch of other ones, we'll probably be the fifth largest beer company in America, just the value portfolio.

And so it does mean profit, right? It is obviously share is an element of it for the total company, but it does mean profit. It means scale. It makes sure our infrastructure is being leveraged in the right way. So for us, the focus on value is both from a consumer perspective, but then also to make sure that we are building a healthy business. The share piece is an important one because if you go back historically, we've never talked about value as a business, as a brand. And a lot of our share losses was around the value portfolio.

And so if you think about what's happened in the last 6-odd months, we have made progress on reducing our share losses on value, right? So the innovation on Keystone, Keystone Apple, the focus on High Life, we had some success in Q1, Q2. We're relaunching it in the fall, Apple and Keystone Ice. So it is an important aspect. I would say share is a subset, but it is an important aspect in the context of the consumer and in context of making sure our business is strong and healthy, which is your profit question.

Okay. Great. And you've said that also this is, in terms of the value business, it's not about heavy national investment. And earlier, you've mentioned beer is a local business. So how do you decide where it's a focused local investment in Miller High Life, Keystone or regional value brand can generate the right return that you need? And what sort of constraints are in place to support profitable growth, not just delivering volume?

Yes. No, absolutely. I mean, firstly, Tracey doesn't allow us to do only volume. She makes sure it makes money. That was a joke, folks. But your point on this is, for us, as we think about value portfolio, value is a couple of things. One, making sure some of these brands are very regional, right? When we talk about value, how we spend, how we engage with these brands, with the consumer, has to be very local. So it is not just about driving volume for the sake of volume, right? We're not discounting it. We're not giving it away for free if that was the context, right? We have to make sure that you see us building the trademark, building the brand behind it.

That's why I'm pretty excited about High Life. If you think about High Life and the equity High Life has, it is something we can really get excited behind. So it is based on that. The other thing we're using as a lever is innovation and value, right? Again, this is not about national campaigns. This is not about bringing on TV and sports. This is about where there's relevant consumers that are looking for that type of a proposition, are we being smart, right? We launched High Life Light in about 18 to 22 states, it made sense in those states. That's all -- maybe that's the plan, right?

And so for us, when we think about value, this is not thinking about spend or marketing like we think Coors Light, Miller Lite, right? Coors Light Miller Lite, you're going to see us in live sports. If anybody was awake until 3:00 a.m. last night to watch the U.S. Open, hopefully, other than the Match, you saw Fever-Tree ads, right? So that's different. But in value proposition, we're going to -- this consumer is different and how we reach to them probably requires different levers.

Okay. Great. I did not stay up to watch. I had a busy day [indiscernible]. So beyond beer, Fever-Tree, beyond beer is now approaching 10% of sales. It's certainly scaled strategically, but there's still a debate as to whether this becomes or when this becomes large enough to really change the overall growth profile of the company. So Fever-Tree has got some solid momentum. I guess I'm curious what the first full year of the partnership has taught you about where the company has the right to win in non-alc.

Yes. I mean we definitely have the right to win in non-alc for a couple of reasons. One, if you think about our network, right, you talked about our distributors, et cetera. Our distributors are already moving there, right? So for us to have scale and bring brands is definitely something that is important. We've got to do it in spaces where we have the ability to win, right? If you think about Fever-Tree and a brand like Fever-Tree, I mean, it thinks like alcohol, it works like alcohol, it drinks like -- it's sold like alcohol, but it's not alcohol. So it is a thing that plays really well to our capabilities.

Now we have had learnings on this, right, in terms of integration, in terms of how do we get to retailers operating a model where we have online and we have DSD and we have DTR, right? We've never done those things previously. We only do DSD, alcohol is always DSD. So definitely learnings for us in terms of integrating this business. But our network is there, the distributors are transitioning to become total beverage. We are bringing them solutions in beyond beer that is probably of scale. So whether it's Fever-Tree or Monaco, those become great adds.

And then we've got to be very choiceful in which category we play in, in non-alc, right? Because we can't compete with some of the other large non-alc players. But there are some categories in non-alc that we have the ability to compete in. And I think that's what you're going to see us leading in. And by the way, we're not looking for 15 brands to play in that space, right? We just need a few that we can have of scale and really keep growing from there, right? Because yes, we're not -- we don't need 15 brands in just non-alc.

Yes. Okay. And you just mentioned Monaco. So that seemed to really neatly fit the miscellaneous M&A criteria that you've laid out in the past. So what did you learn there first 6 months of owning the brand? And how has that reinforced or changed your M&A framework moving forward?

Yes. I mean I think for us, RTDs and flavors was always an area that we knew we needed to get into. I think it's a brand that has done the heavy lift over the last 10, 12 years, 14 years of being consistent. So it's not an RTD that just showed up in the market 2 years, 3 years ago, right? So that was important for us. They've done a great job of doing the hard work of building a brand in singles, in convenience in a few states, right? So it gives us a great platform to take and expand, whether it's in the core states or it is expanding from those 5 states. So we brought the team along with the business.

So again, we'll keep building this capability, right? So execution and convenience, execution with singles is important. Again, local is important. So yes, it's been a great add, great for our network, right? So we've transitioned now to our entire network. It's been great for our network. And yes, I think your last point of question was what's -- how has that evolved in our thinking for criteria? I mean, we want to keep on this journey for beyond beer. We've got to just scale that up. We've got to make sure it's big and growing. And so with the right ideas, we'll continue to look at what makes sense. We're not done there yet.

Okay. If I can just add one thing, which is like Rahul was pointing out earlier is it also has to be profitable. When you've got a brand and it's 3 years' time, it will be profitable, 4 years' time. I mean there's just so much that goes into that. So when we do look at something, it's got to be profitable day 1, and Monaco provided that exactly. So...

Okay. Let's talk a little bit about the cost savings program, the $450 million program. I think the market is still trying to understand or at least I'm trying to understand, how much of the savings will go towards funding growth versus offsetting inflation. So how should we think about that and like the true margin recovery potential of that program?

Yes. I mean right now, we are seeing a lot of inflation. We've mentioned that the Midwest premium is an incremental $130 million to us this year in addition to being somewhere between $35 million and $40 million last year. So right now, a lot of it is going to help offset that. The cost savings program is across all of our P&L line items, but COGS is obviously the biggest bucket. So we'll continue to look at more efficiencies in our breweries, productivity capabilities that we're building in our breweries that we haven't had before, whether that be flavor capabilities or non-alc capabilities, we'll continue to drive that.

But for this year, it's really helping to offset. And again, not totally because the Midwest premium is such a big number for us, but it is helping offset the inflation. Hopefully, inflation will return to more normal levels. And then we'll see the sort of gross margin expansion. But our algorithm is to grow our bottom line at a faster rate than the top line. And so that would imply margin expansion.

Okay. And so as we look to next year is still a bit away, I know. But if the Midwest premium and freight remain elevated into 2027, does that change the right level of pricing, cost savings, reinvestment? Or what's needed to hit that medium-term algorithm?

Yes. So I mean, obviously, pricing is something that we would look at. And I mean, we look at that very carefully market by market, brand by brand. In some markets, we would lead price and where we have got the strength. Other markets, we want to make sure that we understand what our competition is doing and make sure that we continue to be relevant to the consumer. So we'll look at pricing again, on an individual market basis. But mix is also a big player in terms of driving the top line.

So when we look at something like Fever-Tree, I mean, it's other than full strength spirits, it's the highest NSR per hectoliter brand. So we'll continue to drive that. Monaco, we said we're looking at something that adds 1% to 2% top line. Monaco is doing that. So mix is a big component of margin expansion. A lot of times, the above premium comes at a higher COGS number, but it comes at a much higher margin number. So changing or moving our portfolio more to the above premium space is also part of making sure that we can mitigate the continued inflationary costs that we are seeing.

Okay. And I think that like after second quarter, in particular, but I think it's a broader question, one of the bigger debates has been whether or not the company is spending enough to support the growth agenda. So I mean, how do you both, I guess, respond to concern that protecting the P&L in the near term could slow some of the share recovery that you're trying to achieve and maybe tangible examples of where you've been redirecting within the P&L that's tougher for us to see.

Yes. No, I mean, I think the way we think about it, I mean, we're going to lean in to make sure we are doing the right thing for the business. So if you step back and coming into this year, right, we were pretty transparent upfront on the challenge we are leaning into from a Midwest premium and aluminum perspective, right? On the other hand, we wanted to make sure we were investing in the business, whether it was through the acquisitions or building the right portfolio or the right spend in our brands. So on one side, we have the right spend in big brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet. So if you think about live sports, I mean, on live TV today, the only thing left is on sports, right? We will have the largest investment in live sports this year. So we're going to continue leaning on that, right?

Now are we honing the message? Are we executing on that? It's important. But in our value portfolio, it's a very different level of investment, right? We're not talking about live sports. It is TikTok and Instagram Reels, and it's a very different way of addressing that consumer. So we obviously want to make sure we're leaning into things that are driving the right return for our business. So whether it's Fever-Tree or Peroni or the value segment or the Coors trademark, even Miller Lite.

But if there are things that we know we have to find a way to do things differently, we're going to make sure we're spending that money cautiously, right? I mean we know we have work to do on Blue Moon, right? Blue Moon does really well in on-premise. We're gaining share in on-premise. We have not translated that success in the off. So how do we make sure we do that in the right way? So how do we make sure we are spending money in the right way? Simply, our flavor portfolio has been -- hasn't -- has had a tough year. Well, we got to rethink that. So that's where we want to make sure we're spending money in the right places.

Right now, the MG&A one, we also took a number of actions on the G&A side, right? Last year, we did the reorganization in the Americas. In Q1 and Q2, we did the ones in EMEA, APAC. So all of those pieces make up the MG&A line, but we are absolutely committed to making sure we're supporting the brands in the right way, making sure we are investing to get the right return.

Okay. One last question before we go to breakout. Going back to the Horizon 2030 strategy. So hopefully, we're sitting here together again next year. What would be the key evidence to you that you hope we all can see that the strategy is taking hold?

Yes. For me, it is a question of are we on the transformation of our portfolio journey? Have we made progress on that? Two, on the beer side, have we stabilized and making sure we can hold our own on the beer side with some of these brands breaking out? So that becomes a key measure. On the cost side, we've got to keep executing on the cost savings. Inflation is going to be the hard one to manage through that are we in this environment of volatile inflation.

And then we're going to be disciplined on the balance sheet, right? We're going to make sure we're returning cash to shareholders through both dividends and buybacks. So for me, it is about transformation. It is about making sure the beer category, we are doing our part to be strong and stable there and then running a very disciplined business on the cost and balance sheet side.

Okay. Great. Well, we're going to go to breakout. Please join me in thanking Rahul and Tracey for being here with us.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Now I'll turn over to Barbara Noverini, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator. I'm pleased to introduce myself as Molson Coors' new Vice President of Investor Relations.

Our earnings release and presentation materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. Please refer to our earnings release and our most recent SEC filings for important information regarding these statements, including risk factors as well as definitions of and reconciliations to any non-GAAP measures. Actual results may differ materially from our expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws.

Today, we'll focus our prepared remarks on our performance and outlook before opening the line for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Any technical questions can be addressed with our Investor Relations team following the call.

Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results are comparable prior year period and are in U.S. dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, share data references are sourced from Circana in the U.S. unless otherwise indicated. Our remarks today will also reference underlying pretax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share, which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release.

With that, I will hand it over to Rahul.

Thank you, Barb. Welcome to Molson Coors, and hello to everyone on the call. Today, we're joining you from Golden, Colorado, the home of Coors.

Now since the launch of our Horizon 2030 strategy in Q1, I've been visiting with employees, distributors and customers across our footprint to discuss our strategy, our early progress and any gaps that require quick action. Before I begin, let me take a moment to thank our dedicated employees here in Golden and across the globe for their commitment behind our Horizon 2030 strategy.

Now let's start with the category. While the U.S. beer industry began the year on relative solid footing, the unanticipated energy and inflation shock associated with the conflict in Iran demonstrated how quickly global consumer sentiment and behavior can shift. In the second quarter, prices at the gas pump peaked in May, hitting certain U.S. regions, especially hard. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty weighed on consumer confidence and spending behavior in EMEA and APAC. These external factors contributed to our volume performance across our markets in the second quarter.

In addition, in EMEA and APAC, heightened promotional activity as well as channel mix further pressured bottom line results. Of course, in Q2, the industry came together to champion the World Cup as a premier occasion for socialization and celebrating with beer. That said, high industry anticipation increased competitive pressure everywhere. We also saw pockets of intense promotional activity in the U.K. and across Europe. As such, our share of the early World Cup opportunity, which only included the last 3 weeks of Q2 varied by geography and segment.

Now how we respond to these and other external pressures remain firmly within our control. I'm confident that our diversified portfolio of well-loved brands, strong cash generation and disciplined balance sheet provides resilience and flexibility. These advantages enables us to address dynamic external conditions while focusing on the long-term strategic priorities that will grow our business. Based on this, we are reaffirming our fiscal 2026 guidance.

So let's discuss our portfolio, starting with our core brands. Horizon 2030 aims to reinforce the relevance of these brands as the first choice for consumer occasions. We're not just sitting back and relying on existing scale and brand awareness to drive volumes. Enhancing our core brand share performance in today's competitive environment requires continued focus and execution. However, we have more work to do here, and we continue to assess how Coors Light and Miller Lite can amplify their authentic identities to drive greater impact with both core beer and new consumers in the U.S. This work takes time, and we are pursuing new campaigns, partnerships and ways to deploy our media investments with an occasion-based approach.

In Canada, Coors Light largely performed in line with the industry and held its spot as Canada's #1 light beer. In the U.K., Carling experienced heightened competition in the quarter, and we've acted quickly with several actions designed to strengthen its position in the market. In EMEA and APAC, Ozujsko maintained its leading position in Croatia following its sponsorship of the Croatian Men's National Team in the World Cup.

Meanwhile, Coors Banquet grew share and brand volume in Q2. We attribute the brand's ongoing success to its clear identity and consistent marketing. This includes our campaign for America's 250th called Icons of the American West, which helped contribute to growth across all U.S. regions in Q2, and it includes our latest partnership with the Yellowstone spin-off, Dutton Ranch, which has also become very popular.

Turning to our Value brands. Our share trends improved, driven by the successful launch of Keystone Light Apple. We also saw share trends improve for Miller High Life. We've chosen to support growth in our Value brands by deploying modest but targeted levels of investment. Keystone Light Apple, or Kapple, is a great example of how we quickly responded to emerging flavor trends. We deployed an AI-generated social media campaign that generated buzz and resonated with the consumer seeking flavor at an enticing price point. Demand far outpaced our limited run production, so we are bringing it back in the fall.

We also decided to bring back fan favorite Keystone Ice, a high ABV beer in the Value segment. In Above Premium beer, we saw mixed performance across our brands and geographies. In the U.S., we were pleased to see Peroni grow brand volumes by double digits, supported by targeted marketing investments earlier in the year. But the broader Blue Moon franchise remained under pressure in Q2. That said, we grew brand volumes for both Blue Moon non-alc and Peroni 0.0% in the quarter, underscoring our relevance in the small but growing non-alc beer category. While heightened promotional activity impacted Madri in the second quarter, Above Premium brand volumes showed segment growth in EMEA and APAC, driven by Staropramen, Miller and Blue Moon. In Canada, Miller Lite also continued its momentum as an Above Premium offering.

We continue to gain scale in beyond beer, which is an important part of our journey as a beverage company. NSR growth for Monaco, Topo Chico Hard and Fever-Tree was partially offset by other brands in the segment like Simply Spiked. In Canada, Coors Slushie continued to show momentum in the RTD Seltzer segment, while in EMEA and APAC, Hidra continued to benefit from growing interest in functional beverages. Both Fever-Tree and Monaco are well on track to each contribute 1% to 2% to NSR, solid proof points of Horizon 2030's focus on both premiumization and portfolio transformation. We have now lapped the first full year of our partnership with Fever-Tree, and we are encouraged to see momentum continue to build. Following a national campaign that celebrated the ease of mixology at home, Fever-Tree delivered its highest quarter of sales in the U.S. since our partnership began.

Our first full quarter of ownership of Atomic Brands also produced encouraging results. The integration of Monaco Cocktails has been going well, with its overall top and bottom line contributions tracking slightly ahead of our acquisition expectations. While still early days, this progress underscores the importance of bringing RTD spirits into our portfolio. We see Monaco as a clear example of how we can use M&A as a force multiplier in our transformation journey. This acquisition filled white spaces in our portfolio with a fast-growing Beverage segment. It also added an already scaled business, providing both growth and profitability on day 1. Currently, the majority of Monaco sales fall within 5 states, and most of that is in convenience. This is a strong example of our localized portfolio approach in action, and we see plenty of runway to expand into new geographies and channels.

As discussed in Q1, the launch of Horizon 2030 also incorporated changes to our operating model, including quick actions and resource allocation at the local level. For example, in preparation for the World Cup, we invested incremental resources into host markets to drive memorable on-premise experiences. Our partnership with venues in key entertainment districts across Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City resulted in strong consumer engagement with our core and Above Premium brands. In addition, after reports that the Scottish football fans caused beer shortages in Boston, our Restock the Scots campaign swiftly responded by sending a Miller Lite barge to greet them in Miami. These examples show how we're leaning into and learning from targeted efforts that drive incremental results outside of national media spend.

In total, while we're encouraged by our ability to make progress from a top line perspective, we need to stay responsive to the inflationary cost pressures and commodity price volatility that impacted our bottom line. In the near term, our robust cost savings program and other efficiency initiatives mitigate uncertainty within the global macroeconomic backdrop. We made progress in our previously announced 3-year $450 million cost savings actions by identifying areas where we believe we can drive greater efficiency.

For example, we committed to various restructuring actions in EMEA, APAC, including the closure of a small brewery in the U.K. alongside other operational changes designed to modernize, simplify and unlock efficiencies within the region. We've also allocated a portion of our previously announced $650 million in global CapEx to modernize and expand our supply chain capabilities. Upgrades are already underway at our can plant, Rocky Mountain Metal Company. We're investing in new bulk receiving facilities as well as new and upgraded canning lines. Importantly, we believe investments like these that help to strengthen our supply chain will create efficiencies during a time when aluminum sourcing is top of mind.

Finally, on capital allocation. We designed our approach to reinvest in our business and reward shareholders as we progress towards Horizon 2030 together. We are a highly cash-generative business, and we intend to deploy that cash on prudent growth initiatives, both organic and inorganic. We continue to believe that Molson Coors shares currently trade at a compelling value with an attractive dividend yield, and we have ample capacity left on our share repurchase authorization.

We're halfway into our first year of the Horizon 2030 strategy. And one thing I'd emphasize is that no single event will suddenly change our trajectory. This process is about building portfolio strength brick by brick. We already have 2 of the strongest beer franchises in the industry with Miller and Coors. These brands have scale, generate cash and harbor deep consumer loyalty. Our job is to keep them relevant and competitive. That means showing up with strong investment during key beer occasions while working diligently and creatively to find new unexpected moments these brands can truly own. At the same time, we're scaling our next layer of expected growth. We're celebrating success in our core with Banquet, in Above Premium with Peroni, in Value with High Life and in beyond beer with Topo Chico, Monaco and Fever-Tree. None of these opportunities individually change our future. We know that. However, in aggregate, we expect these wins to compound over time. To that end, we're making early progress.

With that, I'll turn it over to Tracey to discuss our financial performance and outlook.

Thank you, Rahul. In the second quarter, our results reflected the challenging category and cost environment we anticipated while also demonstrating the flexibility of our business model and the actions we are taking to manage through volatility.

On a constant currency basis, consolidated net sales revenue was down 3.6%. Underlying pretax income was down 27.8% and underlying earnings per share decreased 22.9%. On an underlying basis, the quarter was shaped by a combination of external headwinds, timing impacts and controllable actions. While some drivers were impacted by phasing considerations, the broader picture is largely consistent with our expectations. The industry remains pressured. Our share performance is not yet where we wanted to be and cost inflation remains significant. At the same time, pricing, mix, cost savings, portfolio actions and disciplined capital allocation continue to support our plan.

So let's get into the details. The U.S. beer industry was down minus 4.2% based on our internal estimates. U.S. domestic shipments declined by 7.3%, in line with our expectations of a 6% to 9% reduction in the second quarter. EMEA and APAC brand volume declined 3.4%, primarily driven by ongoing soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape. The Midwest Premium remained elevated, adding approximately $40 million of year-on-year cost increase to second quarter cost of goods sold. Additionally, the elevation of fuel prices and freight market tightening increased cost inflation in the second quarter. MG&A was up 3.2%, largely due to cycling lower employee incentive costs in the prior year and additional investments in technology and capabilities. Taken together, these factors help explain the pressure on the quarter, but they do not change our priorities. We are focused on improving commercial execution where we have the greatest opportunity to influence share, protecting price realization and using our cost savings program to help offset inflationary pressure.

Turning to the balance sheet. We believe this remains an area of strength and flexibility for the company. In the quarter, we successfully executed a series of public and private placement offerings that allowed us to refinance and retire a portion of our debt. These transactions enabled us to extend maturities and optimize our balance sheet at attractive rates in a rising interest rate environment, resulting in a net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio of 2.53x at the end of the quarter, bringing us close to meeting our stated goal of under 2.5x by year-end. As Rahul mentioned earlier, we remain committed to a balanced capital allocation framework with a relative emphasis on reinvestment, M&A, returning cash to shareholders and debt reduction varying quarter-to-quarter based on available opportunities and strategic priorities.

This quarter, we chose to deploy capital in support of financial flexibility and M&A with the Atomic Brands acquisition, uses of cash that we believe strengthen the portfolio over the long run while preserving flexibility to continue investing behind our core priorities.

We also paid $90 million in dividends and repurchased 1 million shares for $42 million, making further progress on our share repurchase authorization. We have repurchased 15.3% of our Class B shares outstanding since the plan was announced in October 2023. We continue to believe that Molson Coors shares trade at a compelling value and have $2.35 billion of our share repurchase authorization remaining.

With that, let's discuss our outlook. As Rahul mentioned, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance. We are doing so with a clear understanding of both the risks and the levers available to us in the second half. Before we discuss the details of our near-term outlook, I'll remind you that the impacts of the global macroeconomic environment are multifaceted and difficult to predict. And while we had included in our guidance our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results, either up or down.

Starting with the top line. U.S. shipments were in line with our expectations for quarterly volatility year-to-date, with relatively weaker shipments in Q2 following the stronger start to the year. The important point is that the shipment variance is primarily a timing and alignment issue rather than a change in our strategic direction. Our guidance assumes the shipment trends will slightly outpace brand volume trends in the second half of the year.

Our full year guidance also includes 9 months of NSR and profit contribution from the integration of the Monaco portfolio. All other top line drivers remain largely unchanged. Our guidance includes the assumption that full year 2026 U.S. industry volume trends will be better than the minus 5% we experienced in 2025. As a reminder, in Q1, our internal estimates indicated that the industry improved to down minus 1.6%. But at that time, we acknowledged that economic and geopolitical uncertainty made predicting future quarters very difficult.

The industry slowed in Q2 to down 4.2% based on our internal estimates, but this is still ahead of 2025 full year performance. Barring any further escalation of geopolitical events, our guidance still assumes industry improvement over 2025 levels. That said, we are not satisfied with our share performance. We continue to anticipate making progress as we improve execution in the channel, occasions and consumer segments where we believe we can have the greatest near-term impact. We continue to expect an annual price increase of 1% to 2% in the U.S., in line with Q2 performance as well as the average historical range and expect mix benefits from premiumization in both business units.

Moving down the P&L. We expect COGS to continue to be negatively impacted by rising commodity costs through the second half of 2026. On Midwest Premium, we continue to expect elevated costs relative to 2025. As a reminder, we had anticipated the largest year-over-year increase in Midwest Premium to hit the P&L in Q2 2026. For the balance of the year, we expect Midwest Premium to continue to be meaningfully inflationary, but expect that our hedge coverage will mitigate a portion of this ongoing headwind. For the full year, we expect Midwest Premium inflation to be in excess of $130 million. We also expect elevated fuel costs relative to 2025, with tighter freight supply causing additional volatility in transportation costs. These are meaningful pressures, and we are not minimizing them. However, our hedging strategy, productivity initiatives and disciplined spending should provide partial offsets as we manage through the year.

We now expect a reduction in MG&A expenses in the second half of the year compared to the prior year period. The objective is not simply to spend less, but to carefully manage expenses by redirecting investments towards the opportunities that we expect will improve performance and generate the most effective and highest returns. Our 3-year $450 million cost savings program provides an important lever to reduce reliance on industry recovery as we navigate category and macroeconomic volatility. We are also evaluating additional commercial and operational actions to address the headwinds facing the EMEA and APAC segments.

In closing, we are realistic about the category and cost pressures we face, and we are not satisfied with every aspect of our current performance. At the same time, we believe we have meaningful strength, a strong global brand portfolio, a healthy balance sheet, strong cash generation, disciplined capital allocation and a cost savings program that gives us flexibility. We are focused on the levers within our control, sharper commercial execution, disciplined revenue management, more effective marketing investments, continued productivity and portfolio strengthening, as we manage near-term volatility and stay focused on long-term growth.

With that, we will take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.

Unfortunately, we can't gain connection with Bonnie. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi.

I was hoping you could give a little bit more color on the category growth expectations, including the beneficiary from the World Cup in June and July. And then any additional comment on the market share performance that you're expecting going forward in the balance of the year?

Filippo, thank you for the question. So maybe I'll address a couple of things. I think it was a little bit of what's happened and what's going to happen. So if you think about Q2, Tracey talked about the category based on internal estimates, so it was in the minus 4.2% range, Filippo. The World Cup, obviously, was a great occasion from a beer perspective, right? It was a great opportunity for us to showcase our brands, bring people together. But it probably did not have that big an impact across the entire category. If you think about on- and off-premise, what we did see from the World Cup is strong results in host cities and particularly on the on-premise. So if you think about on versus off, 14-ish percent versus off, we didn't see a massive impact of the World Cup across the entire country. So in those host cities, in the on-premise, it was a great opportunity to showcase our brands, bring consumers into the category and really have a great occasion to get our brands performing.

So I would say that would be the World Cup assessment. I think your question then around the category. If you think about 2026 versus 2025, we still believe the category is going to be healthier than 2025. It is going to be -- continue to be a volatile year, you saw the changes in Q1 versus Q2 driven by macro issues, fuel prices, et cetera. So for us, it is a little bit of -- we'll keep close to where the category does in Q3 and Q4. But importantly is what are we going to do about it? And I think that's why your question around market share comes in.

I go back to our portfolio. I mean we've got a pretty broad set of brands across different price points. And so that gives me confidence that going into the next quarter, we can continue to make progress. And if you look at Q2 versus Q1, we modestly gained share. If you look at our different parts of our portfolio, we made some good progress in our Value segment. We made some good progress in core in the Coors trademark, Above Premium beer and then also the beyond beer stuff. So we're making progress from a share perspective. We want to continue to make that progress going into Q3 from different parts of our portfolio. But the category volatility will react to how the category behaves. But probably, it'd still be better than what 2025 was.

Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS.

I actually wanted to ask a follow-up to Filippo's question just on the category. And you noted the weaker performance in Q2, and this may be hard to do, but -- is there a way to kind of parse out the impact from higher gas prices, maybe some unfavorable weather versus maybe some shifts that may be more structural? And I just asked that in the context of I think people were hoping that the category would be stronger in 2Q, but obviously, you saw a meaningful deceleration. And then I guess, underpinning the back half, I mean, I understand that for the full year, you expect it to be better than the down 5%. But should we be expecting a continuation of kind of maybe what we saw in Q2 from a category standpoint?

Yes. I think -- Peter, I think, your question around the category, parsing out higher gas prices and impacts is, I would say, it's a tricky thing, right? Because maybe I'll explain it in a different way. So if you think about coming into this year, consumer confidence, a little bit of clarity in terms of consumer sentiment and how people were making decisions. I think you saw the category being healthier than Q1. As we get into Q2, I do think you saw different behavior from consumers, when things like gas prices, et cetera, are impacted. We saw that in pack data. We saw that in channel data. So there was definitely a pullback. I'd just go back to occasions, right? I mean the World Cup, again, was a great opportunity for bringing people together from a beer perspective. But maybe a little deeper into performance of the category. If you look at some of the channel-specific data, convenience and dollar continued to do well in Q2 versus food and grocery. Singles and small packs did well versus some of the other packs. So folks were making choices in a way differently in terms of their expendable income.

Now on the other hand, I would call out the consumer that is continues to grow from a premiumization perspective, right? So Above Premium portfolio with Peroni and Fever-Tree continues to see growth. So that consumer is resilient, is healthy. The on-premise performed better than the off-premise overall for the category. And that's also a good sign in terms of consumer health in that regard. So hopefully, that gives you a sense of some of the levers and the drivers in the category for Q2.

Your second part of the question is, I think that macro impact, oil prices, sentiment is probably going to be an important aspect as we think through H2, Q3 and Q4. But then I go back to our portfolio, right? Our portfolio is pretty broad. It is encompassing different price points, and it gives -- that gives me confidence and it gives us our ability to lean in differently, right, whether it's the Value segment with pricing, whether it's our Core segment with Coors Light, Miller Lite with price pack architecture, and then it's obviously leaning in with Above Premium beer and beyond beer.

So the category will stay volatile, will stay, I would say, better than '25, but we got the different tools, different brands, different parts of our portfolio to lean in differently and continue to execute, right? And again, I think the previous question about, we got to keep showing share improvement that we've done now Q2 versus Q1, and we're going to keep leaning into that for the balance of the year.

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore.

Great. And I missed the first part of the call, so excuse me if you already addressed this.

Apologies, Robert, we lost connection. We'll now move on to our next question from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

Hopefully, you don't lose connection with me.

Chris, we hear you loud and clear.

Okay. All right. Wonderful. I wanted to ask about the evolution of the inflation expectations. I think, I heard, Tracey, you say $150 million, the slide say, $130 million for a Midwest Premium impact. But maybe just conceptually, inflation is the expectation now that it's running higher for the full year than the prior expectation? How did that impact your outlook for COGS per hectoliter? And then similarly or conversely, you're expecting, I think, maybe a slight decline in MG&A on the full year, confirming if that's correct? And where does that savings come from relative to prior expectation?

And maybe importantly, I'm just starting to think about the path into 2027. Can you just perhaps give us any construct for how to think about your ability to be hedging some of the cost increases that you have seen going into next year? I think you had mentioned that you'll take maybe a pricing in line with similar levels in the fall. And so how do you really think about starting to get ahead of some of the cost curve as you go into 2027? I'd love any thoughts on that. So thanks for the balance of COGS inflation versus MG&A and how the path unfolds.

Chris, thank you. A number of different parts. So I think I captured all your pieces. So let me address that. And Tracey, please add enough after this.

So if you look at this year, '26, obviously, when we laid out our '26 guidance and we shared our plans, we knew we were stepping into this year with a high inflated cost base in terms of Midwest Premium, LME, just the inflationary impact this year. So -- the way I would call out H1 is, I think the teams have done a good job of managing that within the framework that we had laid out, right? So between all the volatility of aluminum pricing and Midwest Premium, the teams have done a good job of managing our COGS per hectoliter.

The one thing that we did see a little bit more elevated levels now is fuel costs and logistics costs, right, where logistics companies, transportation issues are proving to be a little bit more challenging. But I would put all of that under the bucket, Chris, focused on cost management, focused on our savings program and managing through that. So for the balance of the year, if you think about our COGS per hectoliter, we're probably in line with what we've said, and I'll let Tracey give you some specifics on that. But it's a combination of, yes, elevated levels, still a lot of volatility, but working through the levers we have.

To address your question around MG&A, there's a number of factors that go into our MG&A for the balance of the year, right? So it is our investment in tools and technology capabilities, obviously, the cost savings programs that we announced and initiated both last year in the Americas and earlier this year in the EMEA and APAC, right? So that all starts playing out in the balance of the year and then making sure we have the right brand support in making sure we're investing behind our brands for the balance of the year. So for MG&A, just there's a number of things we put in place and obviously to be disciplined around our cost base. You probably saw that in the context of our EMEA business results.

So that's how I would characterize the whole MG&A line. I know we don't talk a lot about '27, but it's an important as we execute on '26. We're obviously thinking through what does that inflationary landscape look like for '27 and going back from making sure we have the right brand investment and support for our portfolio. This is a competitive landscape, but we're going to lean in from a portfolio investment for '27. So more to come on '27. But hopefully, it gives you a sense on '26 MG&A.

And Tracey, any more things to add on COGS?

Yes, just in terms of the Midwest Premium impact, Chris. So if you remember, our initial guidance assumes that the impact of Midwest Premium would be at least $125 million. Our latest estimate now is above $130 million, so 1-3-0. And so we do -- I mean, Midwest Premium has not come down. Commodity costs are going up. So we do assume that Midwest Premium and base aluminum will be elevated versus last year. And again, the Midwest Premium impact for Q2 for us was $40 million. So we do have hedges on for Midwest Premium that is going to help mitigate some of these increases. But as we've said before, it's very difficult, it's very expensive. It's not a liquid market. It's not a transparent market. So we also are using our cost savings program, which we've mentioned to help mitigate some of this inflation. But we do have good line of sight to the balance of the year. But again, continue to see elevated commodity costs, particularly the Midwest Premium.

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.

I guess, a couple of questions. We hear about buybacks, dividend, balance sheet, cost cutting, many of these things, which are great and support the stock, but there's a -- there's an essential volume area to focus on. And while you've talked about it a bit, do you feel like that's sufficient? Like is now the right time to be cutting costs or buying back shares as opposed to maybe really stepping it up in a more meaningful way in your investment behind a series of brands, including really galvanizing some of the ones that are working like Peroni or Coors Banquet or figuring out how to be more relevant in other spaces where some of your brands aren't?

Yes, thank you for the question. Absolutely focused on the top line, Kaumil. I mean if you think about our plan, I mean, we are grounded on making sure our brands are the key drivers of our business in the future. So let me maybe explain how we think about our top line and our brands, right? So obviously, we are -- we have core brands in categories that are under pressure. So the way we think about it is obviously making sure we are supporting those brands well. So whether it's Coors Light, Miller Lite, things like Banquet and making sure we have the right level of marketing investment against them. We showed up for our big brands in a big way this year in live sports. So World Cup was one example. But for the balance of the year, we're going to show up in NFL football, college sports, MLB, soccer, et cetera. We're going to continue to lean in investment in things like music.

So the investment in our core is super important, right? And because to your point, if the top line and our brands are not healthy, it doesn't really matter. So we will definitely continue to lean into that. If you think about our Value segment, this was an important area of our strategy because it is a big part. Consumers are looking for brands at different price points. And you saw a step change for us in Q2 versus Q1. And it was done in a very, very specific investment approach, right? So some of the work around Keystone Apple -- Keystone Light Apple, the work on innovation with Miller High Life, some of the new packaging on Miller High Life that is coming out later this year. So that part of the portfolio does require investment, but in a very different way than our big brands do. And then to your point, in Above Premium beer, we're leaning into Peroni in a big way. We still have work to do in Blue Moon, but we're going to definitely lean into Peroni and a number of other brands across different markets. Miller Lite in Canada is a great area for growth for us in the Above Premium beer.

And in using the balance sheet for beyond Beer is definitely an important priority. You saw us step into that space with the Monaco acquisition earlier this year. And we're going to continue looking at ideas that make sense to augment our portfolio. But you've got to do that at scale, right? You have to do that at scale. It has to do something to move your top and bottom line. And that's why we feel Monaco is a great example of leaning in. So we're going to use our P&L and balance sheet to help facilitate our business from the top line perspective. Now while we're doing that, you're absolutely right, we are being disciplined in a highly inflationary landscape to be focused on cost and drive our cost savings program. We're using the balance sheet in a careful way to make sure we are doing the dividend and buyback. But again, leaning first in terms of investing in our business.

I mean, I think, the only thing that I'd add, Kaumil, is that we are a highly cash-generative business. And so when we look at our capital allocation priorities, because of our cash generation, we are able to invest in all of those, whether that be through M&A, whether that be through investing in our capabilities or investing behind our brands. We're able to do that. At the same time, buy back shares, which, again, we feel that our shares are a compelling investment, and we do have a program, which we'll continue to execute against. But quarter-by-quarter, those allocation priorities may differ. In Q2, we took the decision to put our money behind M&A with the Monaco acquisition as well as maintain flexibility in our balance sheet by paying down some of our debt. So again, we have optionality when it comes to our uses of our cash, and we are able to invest in all of those big buckets around capital allocation.

Our next question comes from Drew Levine from JPMorgan.

Rahul, You talked to the beer industry freaking sequentially and expectation that it will probably remain volatile, but still thinking the year is better than 2025. But wondering if internally, your expectations for the industry have changed at all given what we've seen in the second quarter and so far in July? And also how you're thinking about the market share performance? You said you weren't happy with it. I think there was some expectation that it would improve relative to 1Q, which it did in the second quarter, but also for the balance of the year. But maybe where you're falling short of internal expectations there? And I guess, how are you thinking about the time line to sort of interventions playing out to better market share performance?

Yes. No, thank you, Drew. I think a couple of things. Thanks for your question. So first is on the category piece. Yes, I think to your point of, do we have a different point of view on what Q3 or Q4 might look like? I think broadly it is in line to what I said, right? I mean we knew there was going to be volatility in the category coming into this year. We also had an assumption of it's going to be better than 2025. How that volatility plays out, Drew, it is something we'll watch and see and react accordingly. So I'm not sure I can give you more perspective on the category performance. I think your share one is where I would say that's definitely an area that we focus a lot of time internally about, right? The category is something we all obviously lean into in terms of different occasions, but what we can do with our portfolio is important. And you heard that in my prepared remarks and Tracey's prepared remarks. We don't like where we are in terms of the improvement.

Now we did have modest improvement in Q2 versus Q1 in terms of share, whether it was in value, whether it was selectively in our core. So we are showing progress. It's just we're not showing as much as we would like to. And so that is something we will continue to lean into. And that is a combination of making sure we have all the right commercial programs, right commercial actions. If you think about retail actions in terms of shelf space or placements or displays, features, we think we are pretty well positioned for the second half of the year. If you think about being competitive in the context of pricing in the U.S., we believe we are being highly competitive. And then if you think about supporting our brands in a big way and being clear in what these brands stand for, I think we're pretty excited about how our brands are showing up.

Now if there's some course corrections needed or we need to lean in a little harder, we continue to do that, whether that's very local in particular cities and states or regions or whether that's at a national level. So market share is something is important. Again, I just maybe even flag out EMEA and APAC business, right? So Q2 was a highly competitive landscape. The World Cup played out in a different way in our U.K. business because, again, from a competition perspective. And we're taking the necessary actions. Our core brands there are some of the largest in the market in the category, and we're taking the necessary actions to make sure we are being reactive.

So I understand your question around category, and we will manage through the -- any sort of volatility that has in the category. But internally, a lot of our focus is on making sure our brands show up in the right way, the different parts of our portfolio are showing up in the right way. And that's a combination of multiple levers on the commercial side, right? So retail pricing, innovation, that's an important, again, lever we have obviously pulled in parts of our portfolio and then the marketing investment to making sure our brands are well supported.

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of just the thinking around the H2.

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.

I hope you can hear me.

Yes, we can hear you now.

Sorry about that. Just maybe a little bit of a follow-up just on everything that was discussed this morning. As we move through the balance of the summer, I'd be curious to hear from you what you're seeing in terms of category demand and really consumer behavior? And are there certain initiatives or maybe innovations that you're leaning into to accelerate your trends? And then could you also update us on the shelf and cooler space that you maybe took in the spring resets? I'm just curious like what that ended up being.

Thank you, Bonnie. And so maybe I'll address the different parts of your question. So let me start with consumer behavior. So from a consumer perspective, we definitely saw a change in Q2 versus Q1, right? But when consumers in Q1, whether it was low-income consumers, Hispanic consumers, I would say, was different than 2025, and we saw that in channel data in terms of how consumers came in, in convenience, but also in grocery and in food, right? And we did see a change in Q2. In Q2, convenience and dollar channel was probably the -- had the most success in food and grocery did not. We saw that in pack size, right? Historically, folks, singles play out well in our category. We saw a little bit of a decline in large packs, but progress in growth in small packs.

So again, that shows you the action consumers are taking in the context of being pressured, how they're using dollars, how they're putting their money where they want to look at brands. If you think about our portfolio, and this is why your question around innovation, this is why you see us leaning into in different ways. So the value portfolio was important to making sure we can get our consumers price points that they're looking for. You saw us lean into that with Keystone innovation. You saw we've announced we have more innovation coming in the second half of the year with Keystone Ice, which is a high ABV, more single-centric innovation. You saw that even in High Life. So the portfolio and how we react into that becomes important.

The other part you'll see us is obviously things like Monaco. Monaco, as Tracey said, is a business that sells majority in singles. There's a balance of ABV as consumers think about value. So for us, that is a great stepping into where the consumer trends are, where the consumer may be pressured, but making sure we have the right portfolio around that. On our core brands with Coors Light and Miller Lite, making sure we have the right price pack architecture with the right formats in those particular channels. So those are the actions I know we are taking both from an innovation and trend perspective.

Your question around shelf and cooler space. So we obviously do that in the spring reset, and we did gain shelf space for our brands. If you think about the broad category, yes, the category saw some -- losing some shelf space in things like craft, maybe in some particular flavor subcategories. But if you think about our business, in the majority of our brands, so the core brands, Coors Light, Miller Lite, Value, Above Premium parts of our portfolio, Peroni, et cetera, we did see incremental shelf space. We saw strong retail execution, whether it's in the cooler, we saw strong execution in terms of displays. Coors Light continues to be one of our biggest brands in the context of displays and features.

So our brands are pretty well being executed in retail. I mean Coors Banquet continues to see distribution gains and strong execution in retail, Peroni does. So we feel pretty good about our retail execution, our retail presence, how our brands are showing up, again, example of Topo Chico. So we are definitely holding our share of space. We're definitely growing that in different parts of our portfolio. But overall, I think we feel pretty good going into, obviously, the summer and going into the balance of the year.

And then I think I got most of your questions, Bonnie. Thank you for that.

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore.

Great. I missed a good part of the call, so excuse me if you addressed this already. But I was wondering if you could maybe talk about Monaco in a little bit more depth, what surprised you, where the integration is? And more specifically, my understanding is that something like 80% or so of the sales are in a handful or so states. What is the game plan to make it fully national at this point?

Robert, no problem. I'm glad you got back into the queue, and we won't hold that against you of missing our call in the first half. I'm joking, Robert. No, we appreciate you being here.

So if you think about Monaco, I mean, it's been a great add to our portfolio. If you think about the criteria we laid out, we want to add 1% to 2% brands that give us scale. It's an important thing for us. It's an important thing for our distributor network. So your questions of we closed the deal in Q2. We've obviously been focused on integrating it, which is part of making sure it moves to our network. So I would say we're making good progress on that. You're absolutely right. The volume is concentrated in about 5 states. And it is concentrated in channels, in convenience with singles, right? So it really gives us the opportunity for runway in the future. The way we are approaching it is, one, we want to make sure we first execute in those states by staying and not dropping a case, right? So being disciplined in terms of the model they have. Just as a reminder, we moved about 80 people from the Monaco team also because what we don't want to do is lose the feet on the street, the execution ability.

So job one is to make sure we keep and grow what we have today in those key states. We will look at channels in the states that we already have some strong presence in. Then in the other states, we continue to look at following a similar playbook that Monaco has is how do we make sure we win with convenience? How do we make sure we win singles? It goes to some of the other questions that folks had in terms of how consumers are leaning into this category and how do we make sure we're being competitive in that. So our goal is to obviously take this business national. We will do that in a measured way, Robert. We want to be careful in these integrations that we don't get in a way ahead of ourselves.

So job one, transition to our network, make sure we are executing in the current state, start thinking about multiple channels in the context of the states where there is a lot of strength for the brand. And then how do we make sure we expand into other states with the playbook that Monaco has executed over the last 12 and 15 years. So we're pretty happy about this. We are -- I think we said this in our prepared remarks, we're tracking slightly ahead of what the anticipation was in both top and bottom line. So it has been a good add to not just our business, but also to our network, right? So it's a good point of conversation with our distributor network, with our retail. It creates some excitement. And then yes, we're going to keep leaning into the playbook that they had, but also expanding it with our, call it, infrastructure and our capabilities.

Our next question is from Steve Powers at DB.

I wanted to actually ask about EMEA and APAC and the outlook for the back half for improvement. I guess the question I'm grappling with is how much of the expected improvement that you're calling for in the back half comes from identified cost savings and restructuring benefits kind of already in hand, already in motion in your control versus an assumption that demand or promotional intensity or volume trends improve in the back half? And just if it's the latter, just your confidence around that.

Yes, fair question, Steve. Thank you for that. So if you think about EMEA and APAC, obviously, I would say, a little bit of a tougher start to -- in H1 this year. So a couple of things. Let me address your top line piece first and then your question of confidence in the balance of the bottom line. So we definitely have taken some more actions in terms of -- given the competitive context in EMEA and APAC. If you think about our business there, Central European business has been robust and strong. I mean, obviously, some headwinds, but the teams have done a good job of navigating through that. I would call out U.K. probably is where it has been a pressure from a consumer perspective, but then also from a competitive perspective.

If you look at our portfolio there, I would say we definitely have some strong brands, right? Our core is some of the biggest brands in the U.K. and we've leaned into that with respect to innovation. So we launched Carling Black Label a few months ago. We're taking the necessary actions on Carling for the balance of the year. So we feel good about the actions we're taking in premiumization. Madri, obviously, is a big brand, and the team has done a great job of scaling it. It is, again, in a competitive context, but we have innovation already in market with 0.0 with Madri Limon and other parts of our Above Premium brands are doing well in the U.K. with Staropramen, Miller and Blue Moon.

So from a portfolio perspective, a number of these actions are already in place, in motion and should give us a higher degree of execution in the second half of the year in terms of the top line. If you think about the bottom line and the cost savings initiatives, we did action a number of those earlier this year. I think we announced those. It just takes a little longer in Europe. But those are the ones that are going to give us the benefit in the second half of the year, right? Those are now in place. Those actions have been taken, and that is going to play out.

The only thing -- other thing I would remind you is just timing in EMEA and APAC. U.K., as you know, November, December is a big season for us, right? I mean trading and the Christmas time plays an important role in the beer category. So for us, there is an element of timing also from a trading perspective in the U.K. So yes, it's been a little bit of, I would say, challenging start in '26 for EMEA and APAC, but I know our teams are -- we've got the right commercial plans. We've taken being disciplined on the cost side and taking the necessary actions to make sure we can really execute against our ambitions in EMEA and APAC for the balance of the year.

There are no further questions. This now concludes today's Q&A session and today's call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines.

Great. For our next session, I'm thrilled to welcome back Molson Coors Beverage Company. Rahul Goyal, the new President and Chief Executive Officer of Molson Coors is here with us; as well as Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. So Rahul and Tracey, thank you very much for joining us, and welcome.

Thank you. Thank you for having us.

Great. So I want to start, Rahul, with you. Just as you have now settled in, set a direction for the company. I guess what are the maybe 2 or 3 things that you would want investors to, I guess, best understand about where Molson Coors is headed and what may be different about this chapter versus the past?

Yes. No, thank you for that. I would say 3 main things I would probably leave everybody with. One is our portfolio. I mean we're pretty clear eyed about the category. We're pretty clear eyed about where our portfolio stands, but it is a strong foundation. So -- we know we have our core brands, our value brands that are scaled. They generate a lot of value.

There's a strong connection with consumers, and we need to make sure they're healthy. On the other hand, we are transforming the portfolio. On the other hand, right, I mean, our Beyond Beer journey is early, but we are transforming that part of the portfolio.

So portfolio is one piece I would leave everybody with. The second piece is around our -- I would call out the operating model, right? So what we're doing is different than what we have done in the past, whether it's about our commercial execution, whether it's about our local focus, driving accountability closest to our customers, whether it's about our focus on cost savings and optimization, right?

I mean the cost program we announced, the optimization work we're doing across our business. And then three, I would call out our investment in capabilities, right? So that's both technology-related and investments related is how are we leveraging our investments to really drive return for our business. And then the third one I'd call out is our balance sheet, right? If you look at our business, we are a pretty high cash yield business. And we are doing a number of different things with our balance sheet.

So whether it's investing in our business, whether it's returning money to shareholders and also keeping our leverage in a way to be disciplined on the balance sheet. So that's the big 3 things I'd flag for folks as they look at Molson Coors.

Okay. Great. And if we focus on the portfolio first, I mean, you've mentioned essentially that all segments matter across, right? So the core, the value brands, above premium, beyond beer. I guess -- how do we think about the role that each one of those pieces play?

Yes. So I would say the best way to look at our portfolio is in these 4 broad buckets that you called out, right? Core is scale. Core matters. The Coors Light, the Miller Lite, Carling in the U.K., Molson Canadian in Canada. This is all about share. This is all about making sure we can keep and win share. These brands mean a lot in the core markets, right? It's connected with consumers. And I know sometimes you look from the outside and like, well, is this -- can you find a way to grow it?

And we have pockets where we have shown the way to grow this, right, whether it's Canadian, the Molson Trademark in Canada, whether it's Banquet in the U.S. So core matters and its scale, it resonates with consumers.

The value segment, I would say, is from 2 places. One is from where the economic context is for consumers. They are looking for different price points. So brands like Keystone, brands like High Life, these matters. And then they may be a little bit more geographically focused, a little bit more local, but it is scaled. These are big brands, and so it drives a lot of utilization for our business.

So both from a consumer perspective and from a brand perspective, this part of the portfolio matters. And then if you look at our above premium agenda, we've done a decent job on that in beer in some of our other markets and not the U.S. So in the U.K., in our European business, in Canada, we have a pretty good part of our portfolio in the above premium part of the business. In the U.S., we are under-indexed. And so there, we just got to find scale, right? We've got to find a way to grow ourselves in the above premium beer. And then the fourth part is beyond beer, which is all new, right? We've been in business for 240 years. We know beer. Beyond beer, we've been in the business for less than 4 years. And there, it is about getting scale, right? We started with probably less than 1% revenue.

We are approaching 10% revenue, but we've got to get that big enough that, that part of the business can grow faster than some of the other parts of our business. So we're excited about having the ability to flex our business across 4. Again, I go back to a pretty clear eyed about category challenges, but we like the portfolio we have. We know we can find a way to resonate that with consumers and transform it with the parts of the business that are under-indexed for us.

Great. I want to drill a little bit deeper into each of those. But just on those category challenges, there's been a long-standing conversation amongst investors about the pressures on beverage alcohol broadly. And I guess your perspective on what may be structural changes that impact your strategy as well as some of the kind of cyclical dynamics that are more here and now. And Tracey, if you want to jump in on those 2?

I'll start, Tracey.

I mean if you think about the broad consumer dynamics, right? I mean the focus on health and wellness or changing consumer preferences with respect to the choices they're making around food and beverage. I mean those are longer-term issues. I think, again, we've been thinking about it, handling it and it's on us to make sure we can navigate our portfolio to be ready for that consumer change. I share this as an anecdote. I.

Mean, if you think about it, everybody says a big focus on health and wellness, and that is true, right? And so there you see us a lot of businesses and companies like us move towards the 0, 0 nonalcohol focus. But some of the fastest-growing segments in the Americas is high ABV, right? So you have consumers that are -- talk about health and wellness, and that is important. But on the other hand, you do have consumers that are looking for both flavor, value and high ABV. So that part, I would call things, Steve, that we just have to make sure our portfolio is fit for the future, right? The other part, I think the overhang on this industry and the category has been, I would say, just volatility in the last 12, 18 months, which is just macro -- different macro issues, right, whether it was last year, the impact on Hispanic consumers or low-income consumers. This year, the year started out okay. But getting into March and April, you had other macro issues, again, Middle East, oil prices, pressure on consumers.

So I think that part, as a business, we are pretty resilient. We know we can navigate those volatile moments. I will go back to the balance sheet. The team has done a great job of making sure we have a strong balance sheet. So the structural part or the long-term effects is making sure we have a portfolio that's fit for the future. The volatility is we recognize like every other company, we've got to make sure we can navigate through that carefully. So Tracey?

And I think the only thing I'd add is when you look at -- when people are consuming alcohol, beer is still the major part of that consumption. And so it's really important for us to continue to make sure that, that part of our portfolio is healthy, as Rahul has said. But then for people who aren't consuming alcohol, that's where we're moving to, whether it be zero alcohol beer or the sort of RTD spirits side or any of the other sort of non-alcohol type beverages as we expand our portfolio to cater for those.

All right. Let's dive into the various segments that we talked about a minute ago. And on the core, you alluded to -- you've got some brands like Banquet that have found growth. And then you have other brands, Miller Lite that need some energy. So I guess as you kind of think about the core brand portfolio, what's essentially the playbook to get that overall portfolio in a stronger position going forward?

Yes. No, I think if you look at our core, I like the way we were looking for the [indiscernible] word one on Miller Lite. But if you look at our core portfolio, again, I go back to this is a strong portfolio that resonates with consumers, right? So we're starting from a place where these brands mean something for people. If I think about the Coors trademark, Coors Light, again, it's in a good place, and we've got a lot of new action coming in, whether it's with the World Cup in the summer, whether it's a new campaign.

But if you look at the Coors brand family, it's doing what it's supposed to. It's holding share. And in some weeks, we gained share. Banquet, I use that as an example, right? I mean, academically or intellectually, if you look at that brand, mainstream brand, full flavor beer, it should not grow. It's a 150-year-old brand. There is no logical reason for it to grow. But it is growing, and it is growing because there's a way of connecting the brands to consumers. It's resonating in culture. So for me, that gives us confidence. It gives us a playbook to say how do we make sure our brands can really connect with consumers and grow. Miller Lite, to your point, it is definitely something. It's just -- it's taking a little bit more time, right? I mean if you look at our share performance, that's where probably where we have some work to do.

And if you go deeper, it is a little bit more regional, right? If you think about the Great Lakes or the Midwest of America, that was old Miller Land. That was where we were the strongest. We are the strongest, highest share. And that's where we've had a few new entrants and the competitive context is harder. So we're pretty energized going into the -- being in summer, being with the plans we have this year, whether it is America's 250 with Miller Lite, whether it's the music platform we have with Miller Lite, some of the local activation we're doing in particular regions to really make sure this brand is well supported.

But we recognize it's a competitive landscape, Stephen. It's going to be a competitive landscape. And so this is the way I know we talk about it internally, this is a battle and a fight week by week. It is about execution. It is about making sure our brands show up in the right way. So if you think about our broadest way, our core portfolio in the states, I think we're pretty well set up to give a good fight this summer. And if you look at our brands, again, in Canada, Coors Light continues to be the #1 brand in Canada. The Molson Trademark, again, has a new sense of energy around it. So core is important. Core needs to be healthy. And I think we've got a lot of both good plans, investment behind our core plan for this year.

Okay. And is there a better way to judge progress than share?

I would say I know that's the most visible way to measure share. Obviously, these brands and the health of these brands are important, both in the context of the returns they create for our business and the way we think about utilization, et cetera. So I know externally, that becomes an easy way of thinking about progress, recognizing the volatility in the category. So that's what I would use.

Okay. If we flip to above premium brands like Peroni and Blue Moon, those have had kind of spurts of promise and then followed by softer patches. How do you -- I guess, what are the opportunities to really improve kind of consistency around the performance of that part of the portfolio?

Yes. I mean if you think about our above premium beer, so again, I go back to the fact that we are starting from a lower index, right? If you think about total share of above premium in the U.S., we're much lower than what our portfolio -- complete portfolio is. I would say we've shown consistency in Peroni, right? If you think about it in the last, obviously, 6-odd months, but even 12, 18 months, Peroni has shown consistent focus both from an investment perspective and also from a growth perspective.

The work we have to do is on Blue Moon, right? So -- and the way I would break out Blue Moon is Blue Moon was built on-premise. And if you look at what's happened in the craft category, the craft category has gone through a bunch of volatility. So the first job was to make sure do we have the right execution and making sure we're building the brand back to what the basics are, which was on-premise. And I think that gives us confidence. So if you look at the metrics, you look at the numbers, you look at our performance in the on-premise, I think that gives us confidence that we have the right proposition there. The question is then how do we scale it beyond. And then that's where it goes into the craft category needs a little bit different ideas, a different way to engage with consumers.

That's why you saw us lean into the non-alcoholic Blue Moon, which is again doing really well. You saw us lean into higher ABV of Blue Moon because, again, the craft category with the volatility, just -- it's got noisy. And Belgium white is important, and we've got to get Belgium White back to growth in the off-premise. But overall, if you look at it, in the family of brands, we feel pretty good. We've got a good game plan around Blue Moon. But to your point, again, that's where we've got to put points on the board. So Blue Moon, I get the fact that we have work to do to showcase the points on the board. But Peroni, I think we've driven with a lot more consistency.

MYou made a distinction there in part in kind of on versus off-premise, talking about Blue Moon. I guess taking a step back, you think about near-term trends and some of the softness we've seen in the off-premise data, what are you seeing? And I guess, what are your planning assumptions around off versus on-premise for the balance, I guess, for the balance of the year?

Yes. I mean if you look at the mix of on and off in the Americas, that's still going to be in the 85%, 15% range. It plays a little bit differently by region. But broadly speaking, that -- so for us, the way we think about it is a couple of things.

First is on-premise is, again, where your ability to connect with consumers, your ability to -- because they're paying a little bit higher prices versus the off-premise, therefore, you need to make sure that your brands are stronger there. So that gives us confidence. So if you look at, I think, Nielsen CGA, et cetera, on-premise, all our big 6 brands are showing good growth, right, good progress there.

So I think that gives us, again, a sense of confidence, making sure we're clear on how these brands connect to consumers. On-premise is doing better than off, right? It -- it's a little bit of how do we translate that into the off-premise. And then I then translate that into occasions, right? If you look at our business, if you look at the category, I know overhang about are people drinking, not drinking. The fact is folks are still drinking. This is not about abstinence. This is about making sure there's enough occasions where they're engaging with our products, our brands. And that's why the summer gets us excited, right? And you probably heard this from multiple other folks.

It just gives us more occasions to have our brands showcased, right? It gives us an ability to bring people together. So that's what I would say is the part that I know we're all looking forward to is some just added occasions this summer.

Yes. Yes. Okay. Let's talk about beyond beer, where there's been a lot of activity, right? And there's a lot of activity in your portfolio with Fever-Tree and Topo Chico and now Monaco. I guess, -- we'll talk a little bit about Monaco specifically in a second. But I guess when you think about the overall portfolio you've constructed in Beyond Beer, how does it work together? And how does that translate into more of like a cohesive platform for growth?

Yes. No, I mean, I think that first start with what is the role of Beyond Beer. So if you think about our business, obviously, we are in great profit pools, and we want to make sure we can continue to grow our business in those large profit pools, right, Americas, Europe. And consumers are making different choices on how they engage with our business, our brands. And that's where the Beyond Beer platform is important.

We started with probably less than 1% of our revenue in beyond beer. We're approaching about 10%. So we want to make sure it is of scale, right? So I think your question is how does this all come together? I mean we want to make sure it's a scale and the growth rate in Beyond Beer is obviously -- should be higher than the growth in the rest of our business, which is what we're getting to, and I think we're demonstrating now. The question there is what segments do we work in? And how does we make sure that the execution in that in beyond beer is aligned to our broader enterprise. And I think if you look at the choices we're making, you talked about Fever-Tree, you talked about Topo Chico, Monaco. I mean these are brands and beverages and categories that are close to alcohol, right? So if you think about Fever-Tree, obviously, it's a non-alcohol product, but it is close to alcohol. You can find it in the same place in a grocery store or on a liquor store.

The on-premise accounts are somewhat similar, but expands the universe base. So execution matters in that, right? So making sure that we can execute these parts of the portfolio along with the big infrastructure we have. So that's the exciting part for us. Again, I used Topo Chico as an example, I mean our partnership with Coke. We've had some good success initially. But then the flavor category was volatile. And so there needed to be a little bit of a step back and rethink. And now we're getting Topo Chico back into growth in a good way because we were able to expand innovation, bring that production in-house, use our facilities, drive value to the bottom line.

So while it is -- we're not going to have 10, 15

brands. So to your point of how does all of this work? I mean we need to have a few scaled brands that can give us both the scale with retailers, scale with distributors and our infrastructure. And then the only other part I'd call out is the good part with some of these brands that we've added to our business is we have brought in capabilities that we did not have. So for example, in Fever-Tree, the Fever-Tree team in the United States have done a good job of executing in really high-end accounts, right, white tablecloth, on-premise accounts where traditionally beer maybe -- may not be sold. But guess what, now our teams show up where we can sell Fever-Tree and we can sell Peroni, right? So it is a capability that we're adding to our business also as we think about the Beyond Beer part of the portfolio.

Great. So on Monaco, which is the newest addition to the portfolio, I guess maybe a little bit on what role that plays and what gap that fills in the portfolio? And I guess, milestones, integration priorities over the next few quarters and if there are any unique capabilities that, that brand or that the employees that work for that brand bring to the table, that would be great, too.

No. I mean if you look at one of the pieces I would again zoom back out is the flavor category, right? I mean that the flavor category is a pretty volatile one. We started the journey with seltzers and then F&Bs and now RTD Spirits. So we knew we had a gap. We knew we needed to fill a gap in the RTD spirits space. But one of the tricky parts in this is the volatility of brands. right? And how do we make sure we're getting something that we can take as a base and a platform and really grow. The other part was important was scale. Scale relative, obviously, to our size because if it's too small, it becomes too hard, becomes too hard for our infrastructure, our business. So you need to have some level of scale, which we can take and then grow from there. The other thing which is important is both top and bottom line being a healthy business.

It has to be accretive to our business, right? We're not going to deploy dollars just for the sake of chasing the top line. We've got to do that in a disciplined way. So in a way, those were the criteria to think about. For us, what excited us about Monaco is that this business has been around since 12 to 14 years. right? So it's seen the way of the ups and downs. So -- and the team had done a great job of building this business on the back of singles, right? I mean I think 70-plus percent of this business is singles in convenience and independent stores.

I mean that's the hard thing to do, right? Two, it is pretty concentrated in a few states. I think 5 states make up 65-plus percent of that business, which gives us a great platform to start with. So to your question of brand proposition was right. It worked with consumers that are pretty a little bit different than our core demographics of what we sell to.

It was a platform that was scaled with a very disciplined way of building a business that we could take and move on. So the way we've done this is we've obviously closed it at the end of Q1 -- sorry, in April. We've integrated the people. So we brought on about 80-plus people from that team because this is where in some of these brands, you want to make sure it doesn't get lost in the big system, right, that there is enough time and attention, focus on making sure that we can keep the magic that exists with this brand. Job 1 right now is to make sure we can do the right transition. We say don't drop a case. But we also then want to make sure we get clear on our plans to take this business forward.

And the way I would think about it is in the markets that where it is pretty well developed, we want to make sure we think about multiple channels because if the team has done a really good job of convenience and liquor stores and singles, well, there's opportunity across different channels. And then on the other hand, we have the geography opportunity, it is concentrated in 5 states, how do we make sure we replicate that model in some of the other states.

So early days, I think we're getting to know the brand. We're getting excited. I know our distributor network is excited about the brand as we think about transitions. But it's one of those things that just gives us scale in beyond beer and shows our commitment to build this business for a portfolio for the future.

Let's get ourselves outside the U.S. for a few minutes anyway and talk about some of your larger international market, Canada, the U.K. And over time, those have been relatively stronger, I guess how are the dynamics that you're facing in those markets today different than maybe what we've described in the U.S.? And how are you navigating more aggressive competitor pricing, specifically in the U.K., which I think is the big issue?

Yes. No, I think if you look at our European business, right, I mean, the team has done a great job of growing the business even from a pre-pandemic perspective, faster than, I would say, the Americas team. So top line, bottom line. And if you break it down, I think, obviously, in the U.K., it's been on the back of things like Madri and premiumization and the portfolio transformation there. And Central Europe also has done a good job of just core execution in a pretty volatile external context.

I would say the Central European business is still pretty strong. There's, again, continued macro issues that affect particular specific countries, right, local elections, local tax issues. It is a competitive context. But in the -- in the broad scheme, we're holding and gaining share. So our Central European business in that regard. U.K. has just been a competitive landscape, right? I mean it is a highly competitive market. I think the category is also a little bit under pressure in the context of consumer sentiment. But it is all about, I would say, just being competitive, and this is where Madrid is a little bit under pressure, but holding its own. And we have work to do in Carling..

So the mainstream category has gotten pretty competitive. And I think you're seeing us lean into that both from an innovation perspective. So we obviously launched Carling Black Label. You're seeing us making sure we show up with Madri in the -- for the summer and with innovation with Madri Limón. So yes, I think when the category is challenged overall, this is one market that's highly competitive, then we're going to put it all in the field.

Okay. Well, it's good news. I was in the U.K. last week. It was very warm, and there was plenty of Madrid.

No, I appreciate that. I think, yes, if you -- and the team has done a good job, right? I mean if you again look at capability and -- and if you look at our history, right, we were pretty under-indexed in London in that area. And I'm sure if you guys today go out, I mean, we have a pretty broad portfolio, above premium portfolio in the U.K. and in that region now, right, between Madri, with Monte Carlo with obviously Coors. So it is a capability and a muscle that is going to help us long term.

Okay. Okay. We've gotten this far, we haven't talked about cost. Yes. So let's talk about costs, Tracey. We've been talking -- and we've been talking about costs for a while. I feel like every time we're on the stage, we're talking about aluminum and Midwest premium, but the question still lingers. So I guess what are you -- what are your latest kind of thoughts around the cost outlook? I know you're very well protected for '26, but I think a lot of investors are starting to think about what might be kind of building up as we look kind of beyond the calendar year. And I guess, your plans and ability and confidence to mitigate some of those cost pressures.

Yes. So I think the biggest cost pressure, the biggest headwind that we've faced this year, and it's not just us, but we've been talking about it for a long time is the aluminum side of it. So aluminum and the Midwest premium in particular. So you're right. I mean, for this year, we materially hedged.

So we feel that we can mitigate any sort of further increases, et cetera, around the LME as well as the Midwest premium. As it relates to next year, we have said that it's really difficult to hedge the Midwest premium beyond sort of 12 months. Now we are -- we do have hedges in place for next year. But in terms of the volatility that we've seen, and I mean, the commodities continue to increase and the war hasn't helped, the war in Iran -- so there's a couple of things that -- levers that we can pull.

So pricing being one of them, premiumization, we've spoken about the portfolio, just continuing to drive efficiencies in our breweries. So we have invested capabilities in our breweries, which is helping to reduce costs and increase efficiencies as we bring more of our portfolio in-house, produce in-house that's going to help margins. But then we also announced this cost savings program. So $450 million over 3 years. You'll see that starting now this year.

Last year, we made decisions end of last year in the Americas to take out about 400 roles in our Americas business. And then this year, we announced some closures, a U.K. brewery closure, also some U.K. cost savings, European cost savings as well that's going to drive that -- drive the cost savings and just help mitigate some of the inflation that we're seeing. But continuing to invest behind our capabilities is certainly helping to offset some of the cost pressures that we see.

On the $450 million, is there -- I guess, maybe cadence how that is likely to build as we go through the year and then over the life of the program?

Yes. So you'll see those cost savings starting now in 2026. So again, those -- a couple of those cost savings programs that I mentioned, we're starting to see that flow through. And as we start investing more in capability, that's going to take a little bit longer as we invest in technology, et cetera. But we'll see those coming -- the technology investments returns coming through next year and the year after. But this year, you're certainly going to see the headcount reduction, the closure of the brewery, et cetera, you'll see those cost savings kind of I would say, evenly spread out that $450 million over the next 3 years.

Yes. Okay. In terms of the investments that you need to make to support the growth and stabilization initiatives that we talked about, in light of the cost pressures that are building, what's your confidence that there's enough flex to make those necessary investments?

I mean we did say that our capital guidance, CapEx spend guidance is around the sort of 650 million. We think we can do all of this within that range. We've built new breweries in the past, all within sort of in that range. So we feel that we can manage that well. But we do feel it's really important to continue to invest in our breweries and invest in these tools and technology, the capabilities that we are building to continue to drive efficiencies,not just on the supply chain side, But also on the MG&A side. We continue to look at ways that we can make our marketing more efficient return on marketing investment. We continue to take decisions around driving more to working dollars out of nonworking dollars. So you'll see all of that play through as well, all within the sort of guidance that we've said.

Yes. Just maybe to add to that, Stephen, I know you've asked me about portfolio, but just to make this real, right? I mean, obviously, when you think about our big brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet, you're going to see us show up in a different way. And you're seeing that, right, whether it's in TV, whether it's in live sports, right? I think we have our biggest investment in live sports that we've done in the last 10 years because these brands have to show up in a different way.

But then just to pivot a little bit to our value segment and that level of investment there, we want to make sure those brands resonate also with the type of investments we do are how we do it and the quant is doing it. So to Tracey's point, I mean, that's the pieces we are balancing, right? We talked about beyond beer, we are investing in people. We moved 90-plus people with Fever-Tree into our organization. We have 80-plus people that we've added with Monaco.

So we are investing in our business to make sure we're obviously being prudent and disciplined about managing a pretty volatile cost context, but investing in the business in the right way. I'll make one plug. If anybody has not seen the Keystone, Apple, TikTok or Reel, take a look. And I say that in jest, but it's an area about investing in technology, right? It is a small -- it's an ad that is getting some energy, but the investment we did in that was appropriate for that type of part of our portfolio. So it is -- we're making sure it's in the right investment, and as Tracey said, within the broad parameters we've laid out for this guidance.

I will check that out. I guess, Rahul, you mentioned at the start, the strong balance sheet of the company and the cash generation of the company. I guess from here, maybe both weigh on this, just Tracey, from a capital allocation perspective, the balance of capital return to shareholders, potential M&A and maintaining that strong balance sheet. And then, Rahul, I guess, what is the right deal from here? Because you mentioned you don't want 10, 15. So what is the right deal in the context, both strategically and financially?

Yes. So I mean, I think we've done a really good job in terms of our balance sheet, and we've got this target out there to be around 2.5x leverage. And I think we've been very disciplined on that. It's been really important. We just refinanced some debt and having that investment grade and was really good for the debt that we did raise. But because of our strong free cash flow generation, we are able to do a number of things.

So we continue to buy back our shares. We do think that our stock is a compelling investment. And so we do have the extended program out there. It's now up to $4 billion. So -- and we're ahead of where we would be if you just sort of divided it over 5 years. So we continue to buy back shares. We've continued to increase our dividend. So we have said that we want to sustainably grow the dividend. We've done that. But then we've also been able to make the acquisition of Monaco through our operating cash. And so we'll continue to probably most importantly, invest behind our business to make sure that we can continue to grow.

Again, the balance sheet is in a good place. And then we have also made the commitment to continue to return cash to shareholders. So again, within our strong free cash flow, we've been able to do all of that. Do you want to talk about that?

Yes. I think if you think about -- I'd start with the portfolio, Stephen. I mean, what are the gaps we need to fill, right? So we had talked about RTDs earlier in the year in February, and we fill that. I go back and first job is to execute what we have, right? We have a broad portfolio with core with value with above premium beers.

We've got to execute on that. We just added Fever-Tree last year. We added Monaco. So we've got to make sure organizationally, we are executing against that. So that's how I would first start with. And then we'll always be open to look at what opportunities come as we fill gaps in the portfolio. Again, we're not looking for another 10, 15 brands. What we need is a few scale brands that we know we can execute within our infrastructure, but it then rounds out our portfolio to really make sure that the beyond beer space can really scale, right? So probably that's the space that makes sense. But beyond -- if you think about beer, I mean, we continue to innovate in beer, right? So whether it's things like Keystone Apple or Keystone Ice, whether it is around Blue Moon, -- so we will -- it's around Coors, right? We just launched Coors 0.0 in the Northeast.

So we will continue to innovate in parts of the portfolio where we know we have the right to do. But beyond beer is probably where we probably need to deploy dollars over time.

Okay. We're just about out of time here. But I guess if there are 1 or 2 things or 2 or 3 things you think investors should be most focused on that you're most focused on in terms of the definition of success over the next 12 months, what would they be?

Yes. I mean I would go back to the 3 things I started with, right? I mean we have a pretty broad portfolio. And as a company, I know we can get our business back to growth definitely even in volatile times. So that's important.

Two, we're operating very differently than we have in the past. And so that's a good way to keep a measure on us as a business. And three is our focus on cash and balance sheet, right? I mean we'll be pretty disciplined about how we run this business. We're pretty disciplined about returning cash to shareholders, recognizing we still have to get our business back to growth.

All right. Great way to end it. Rahul, Tracey, thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you all for joining us.

Thank you.

All right. Hi, everyone, and thank you again for joining us. I'm very delighted to welcome Molson Coors CEO, Rahul Goyal, and CFO, Tracey Joubert. Molson Coors has had a strong start to the year as the company continues to make encouraging progress on its transformation journey. And as the beer category trends are slowly starting to improve. Molson Coors has moved to the next leg of its revitalization journey, which is to accelerate growth in its portfolio and deliver sustainable top and bottom line growth.

So thank you so much for joining me, Rahul and Tracey. Nice to see you both.

Nice to see you.

Trying to make sure that chairs are right. So welcome, and I wanted to kick things off today with a question for you, Rahul.

You've been in your seat now for, I think, a little over 7 months. So I'd love to hear from your perspective, sort of what surprised you the most in this relatively new role and then maybe what you underestimated?

That's nice question. I did not expect that from a -- No. Thank you, Bonnie. Firstly, thanks for having us here. The way I think all of us in the company and I particularly think is we get the privilege of working with a company that's 240 years old. I'm the new guy on the fleet, but I have been in the company 25 years. So our job is to make this company bigger, stronger, better for the future. And that's how we think about it. I think so new -- I would say new understood the business, understood the company -- probably the thing that your question of surprise or change is the impact you have on a lot of lives, right? I mean we got 16,000 people. We've got distributors. So the impact you have on them in their families probably is a little bit more deeper than I -- you know it, but the way it carries. But as a business, I've had the privilege of understanding and knowing our business for a long time. So that part, I think has not been any big surprise.

And then just in terms of like you mentioned the whole organization and the culture change that maybe you're trying to...

Yes. No. And that's what I would say is just that takes time, right? The change because I say this to our teams all the time. We're a good company. We have a strong brand. We have a good foundation. We're in great profit pools. But we got to go find growth. And to go find growth, we've got to think differently. We've got move with some urgency. We got to move with a little bit speed, risk taking and that sense of ownership in this company. So it's a great business. It's a great platform.

As you know, our challenge is go finding growth, and we believe in the new plan, we can go get that. And the exciting part is we can get our teams excited about that. And I think that's the part we look forward to.

Okay. Sounds good. And thinking about the category too and where you play, you touched on this in your earnings a couple of weeks ago, just in terms of the industry being down, I think it was 1.6%. But more recently, we've seen some of the growth decelerate, I guess. And I'd love to hear your perspective on what on earth is going on now within the broader beer category. And how do you think about -- I mean, we're still not quite at summer, but optimistic that maybe weather and some events can accelerate this growth.

Yes. I think coming into this year, I know everybody in the category was a little cautious coming out of last year, right? Last year was anomaly, you look at whatever time span. So I think coming in this year, we felt that this year is going to be better, right? You have these -- all these events last year. So I think that's where coming in, we would like a little bit more confident about the category. I think Q1, as you rightly said, was a little bit much better than broadly, I would say we expected.

And April has been a little bit of a jigsaw again. And so your question of -- if you think about the consumer first, I mean the consumer health coming into this year, Q1, the trips were higher, number of buyers higher, maybe basket size still cautious. But we're feeling good about the year. I think April, again, macro issues, if you think about the war that happened end of March, gas prices started hitting, accelerated levels at the end of March, early April. So it is going to be a volatile year. It is going to be a volatile year. I think that's broadly the theme. I know some of the questions in Q1 was, well, do you see this seeing forward? And I think our comments was, well, we like what we saw, but let's be cautious.

Now on the other hand, you rightly called out, I mean, we got some big occasions in summer. And we've talked about and the categories talked about is our challenge is not people not drinking. I mean people are drinking. They're drinking differently, but it is occasions. And the summer gives us a great platform for great occasions, right? You got the World Cup, you got Americas 250th. Weather always helps.

So I think we're pretty energized about going into summer. We'll see what April is, again, all of us need to learn, deal with ambiguous volatility, but we're excited about summer. I think we've got a lot ahead of us, May, June and then you start the buildup into the summer, that's exciting.

I forget the context of this with your top line guidance this year. Have you stated what that suggests for the category? Have you put a figure on what you expect the category to do this year?

No, we did not. So this year, I know last year, just given the volatility of the category, we gave some ranges. This year, we didn't. I think what's coming in, if you look at last year's category, it was in the minus 5-ish range. We expected this year to be better. Right now, whether it's -- yes, we'll see how the year plays out. I mean it's been pretty volatile start anyway.

I thought it could be the year beer stocks, right, considering everything the factors you just mentioned. And then -- but obviously, things always change, and you touched on the war and gas prices and the consumer. And very recently, maybe we're starting to see some signs, right, whether it's down trading, et cetera. So thinking about your portfolio and the value segment and how you're stabilizing that, are you starting to see any signs of maybe consumers trading down to some of those brands? And then if so, can you talk about any of the strategies maybe you're implementing to meet the consumer where they're at.

No, that's a great point. Again, if you think about the consumer, I know you asked about the value on. So just briefly, the top end of the economic consumer, they're doing okay. They're resilient, right? So for us, making sure we have a portfolio for them, whether it's Peroni, Fever-Tree is important.

So obviously, there, we're leaning in on some of our above premium pieces, even like things like Banquet. Trade down is a little bit -- we don't see trade down in our categories, right? So folks who love Coors Light are going to come to Coors Light. Miller Lite, they come to Miller Lite. Maybe we got to think pack sizes. So that's where we've been on a little bit, single, small packs and large packs. So we see a little bit of that trading.

Value is a big part of our business. It is a big part of where consumers are leaning in not for trade down because they care about those brands. So we are seeing some progress. And this is -- I want to be cautious because I know there's more work to be done on this. There's definitely more work. It's a long-term thing. But if you think about High Life, High Life is holding on to share. I mean we're on-premise, we're gaining share, off-premise, we have work to do on Keystone. And then -- so we have some new plans coming in that I think we're getting excited about, but this one is going to take a little time.

I'm going to take this forum to make a small plug if that's okay, a 5-second plug. If you guys have not seen the new Keystone Apple ad or video or TikTok or whatever that is. If you want a 2-minute fun, just smile, go take a look at it. And I use that as an example is we got to find just a way of connecting better with consumers with that portfolio, which historically we have not supported. And so now we just need to show a little bit of support and love, and we got 2 big ones, High Life and Keystone. But then there's a lot of brands that we have, which are very local that requires different ideas, different execution on that.

So it was leaning in on some of the strength, stabilizing those brands, especially given the broader consumer backdrop could actually work.

Yes. Absolutely, I think for us, like Keystone, I mean, we're going to have Keystone Ice coming in later in the fall, which is a little bit of on the ABV side, higher ABV. So as exactly you said, stabilized High Life and Keystone and then local execution on the rest of the portfolio.

Okay. And then thinking about guidance, your full year top line guidance of flat, plus or minus 1%, which you just recently reaffirmed. But you do expect, I guess, U.S. shipments to be down 6% to 9% in Q2 because of what occurred in Q1. Maybe walk through that for us, just kind of what's happening between Q1 and Q2? And then ultimately, what gives you the confidence that you'll see the recovery in the second half?

Tracey, Do you want to take that one?

Yes. So what we did say on our Q1 call is we went into Q2 with higher levels of inventory. We feel very confident in the levels of inventory that we will have going into the summer. Last year, Q2, we had higher levels of inventory. We were a little bit impacted by glass supply. And I think you've heard some other folks talk about that, that's cycling some of the headwinds from last year, but we have built up inventory. We do feel good. There's always going to be somewhere where there's a package that maybe is out of stock, but that's normal. But we're working with our suppliers, our distributors. And so we feel confident going into the summer with the inventory levels that we've got.

But just due to some headwinds in cycling from last year, Q2 is going to be lower. We do plan on shipping to consumption for the full year. So you'll see in Q2 -- Q3 I'm sorry, the second half of the year, our STWs will outpace STRs as we shift to consumption.

And in the context of that, Monaco, which we're going to talk about, that is part of -- factored into the guidance to get to that, I guess, flat or minus 1%.

So good visibility, see the recovery just some noise, if you will, between Q1 and Q2, but a lot of the initiatives that are being implemented.

Yes. If you look at Q1, we shipped ahead of consumption and we build inventory. It's a little bit of a phasing all the things Tracey talked about. And full year, we can still see the minus 1, minus 2 guidance that we laid out.

Okay.

Minus 1 plus 1.

Yes, exactly. Not changing guidance today. No, exactly. Core brands. I wanted to switch gears. You talked about regaining focus and then winning back share for the core brands, which is critical given the size and probably the profitability of those brands. So what are the specific strategies that you are implementing behind Coors Light and Miller Lite? And then ultimately, how do you evaluate if those strategies are working? I mean I know we've talked about this for a number of years, but just thinking through the...

Yes. No, absolutely. And that's a fair question, Bonnie. If you think about our big brands, right I mean, Coors Light, Miller Lite, I put Banquet in that. I put Miller Extra Lite in that. So if you think about our core portfolio, we've got to make sure they are strong and healthy. And I would say we've done a decent job on things like Banquet, things like Coors Light to some degree. The easiest measure is share, right? I mean, obviously, we think of volume, we think of NSR for the external world, the easiest measure is share. And if you see our progress since '23 or even in recent times, we've held that part of the category share has been okay.

Now we have some work to do on, for example, like Miller Lite. This year, we knew coming in, it was going to be a competitive context. And in a couple of regions in the United States, Miller Lite has been a little bit challenged. So we knew it's a competitive context, but that's where we need to react.

To your point of looking forward, if you think about the plans we have laid out over the summer. [indiscernible], we got the World Cup. We're pretty excited about how we're going to show up in the World Cup. As they say, there's 7, 8 Super Bowls in Houston and 6 Super Bowls in Dallas and obviously, regional, but a great way to activate and make sure our brands show up in a strong way.

Miller Lite, we launched some of the campaigns early just a way to make sure we've been competitive. So -- and then the last piece I'll call out, which I know sometimes people don't get out a new plan that we laid out is the local execution, right? So we've changed our operating model. We are looking at our brands very locally. We're looking at how do we make sure these brands resonate in those particular geographies. And then we can react to that. So whether it's promotions, whether it's pricing, whether it's activation, we can use the levers there.

So core brands, super important. Obviously, volume and NSR is key, share becomes an important way of measuring progress. But then in terms of making sure we have all the right plans leading into summer, I think we're feeling good about it going into the summer.

And you mentioned Miller Lite maybe needing some more work. Is there -- can you share with us maybe what's not resonating with the consumer with that brand? I mean -- and as you think about kind of trying to improve share, is it innovation? Is it better price pack architecture? You mentioned some campaigns and maybe different messaging. What are some of the key initiatives?

No, I wouldn't say -- I mean, yes, the campaign and the thinking and the focus we have on the Lite, I think, is the right one. That is resonating with consumers. I think if you've seen the Christopher Walton message, the message around the liquid, all of those are resonating. It's just competitive. So I think a lot more things to focus on price back in those particular geographies, thinking through pricing and promotional activity in those particular geographies. So it's a little bit of execution and making sure we are reactive to what's happening.

But in terms of what the brand stands for and how the brand is showing up, I think we're feeling pretty good about it. The other thing I didn't mention is Americas 250th celebration, right? So again, Miller Lite is a big brand that talks a lot about Americana. And so I think that's the other thing we're pretty excited about coming into the summer. So yes, I wouldn't say this is a national -- we've got to rethink on the brand. It's more about local execution given how competitive this context is going to be this summer.

So if we're sitting here again in a year, and I hope we are, would success to you be that these brands, Miller Lite, Coors Light are essentially flat with share? Are you expecting to grow share? I'm just trying to think through...

No, absolutely. That's a great question. So I think success for me, obviously, growing of share of total category is an easy one. But I think you've seen our numbers. We got to change the trend. And if the core is healthy, our business becomes pretty stable in that context. So for me, in the year's time, yes, we should be in the position of at least holding and in the right trajectory for share volume.

Okay. Maybe I'll switch to cost and the lovely Midwest premium. That's very topical. You've been talking about this, obviously, maybe early, earlier right? I know that's true. But really kind of started talking about this being obviously a major headwind to your business this year. And I think you called out a $30 million cost increase in Q1. So you expect it to be inflationary every quarter for the remainder of the year. It was, I think, the largest increase in Q2. So you have pretty good visibility in terms of that? How do we think through?

Yes. So we feel very comfortable with our hedge position for this year. We did layer on more hedges in February. So we've got pretty good line of sight as to what it would cost us. And I would say we probably -- we've mitigated for the most part, any further increases, the impact that it would have on our business. Having said that, though, I'll just keep saying, I mean, it's a difficult commodity to hedge. We -- I think I've spoken before, for every 1,000 aluminum hedges, there's 3 Midwest premium hedges. So it's not as transparent. It's not a great market to hedge, et cetera. So we'll continue to have a look at it. But for this year, we feel pretty comfortable with our hedge position and that we've mitigated most of any increases that may come forward.

And it's just hedged through this year, right? And I mean...

We do have some hedges on for next year. But typically, we have more hedges in the first year. But again, it's very difficult to hedge, especially out longer term.

Okay. And then how do we think about that in context? Because I'm pretty sure you're staying disciplined with the 1 to 2 points of pricing. Is that correct? And so this is why we're just ultimately going to see some of the margin headwinds. Any other factors that you can, I don't know, implement to help mitigate some of this, whether it's marketing spend, cost optimization, et cetera?

I mean we obviously got the $450 million cost savings program that we announced. And if we look at some of the actions that we took at the end of last year for the Americas G&A, we'll start seeing that flow through. We took out 400 roles. So we're starting to see the impact of that on our G&A. And then we've also taken some actions in our EMEA, APAC region, where we've closed the brewery, and we're looking at using technology and capabilities to drive further cost savings.

And I would say we're on plan. We're on track with that, with our cost savings. Now the $450 million is over 3 years. But you'll start seeing that come through this year. So that's one of the things that we are doing, and we started last year to mitigate the inflationary pressures that we are seeing.

So Tracey [indiscernible] I know talked to a number of staples companies, and they have identified, already planned cost optimization, productivity savings. Have you been able to accelerate any of that or pull it forward? I mean you mentioned it's on plan, but is there a way to accelerate or move some of the projects earlier given these [indiscernible] cost headwinds.

Yes. I mean, we are looking at that. The capabilities that we're building is definitely helping us and then implementing some of the new systems and technology is helping as well. So yes, we're trying to pull forward as much as we possibly can.

I think you said this well, Bonnie. I mean in terms of us being disciplined about our business, I think we started that journey in Q4 last year, right? So we knew some of these headwinds ahead of us. So some of the hard decisions around our team structure, people, hard decisions around supply chain. We put it in place in Q4. We obviously are going to see those benefits as it translates. Tracey and the team in terms of hedging and trying to mitigate risk, I think we've tried to do that. I think the brand one, we obviously want to make sure we get the right return out of our investment, but we also want to make sure we're being competitive in marketplace, right? So that's why -- that's what we took into consideration when we gave guidance this year, and that's what we want to try to make sure we deliver against as a business.

And to be clear on that point, if I'm hearing you correctly, so the spend levels are not decreasing in terms of behind the brands to reaccelerate, maximize share, et cetera, you're going to get...

Yes. I think, again, we said it in our earnings, right? I mean if you think about our broad MG&A spend over the next 3 quarters, it's going to look higher than last year. Now some of it has onetime issues from last year of incentive and stuff, but we want to make sure we have competitive pressure in the market, right? So tough context in terms of aluminum and input costs, right cost savings program to optimize, manage the risk, but making sure that we can have the right commercial pressure in the market.

Yes. One thing I would say about our marketing investment. I mean, we are -- if we look at our core brands and what's important for us, whether it be Miller Lite like Banquet, High Life, Keystone Apple, as Rahul mentioned, even Fever-Tree, we've got a campaign, a new commercial for Fever-Tree, which we haven't had before. But we are putting more dollars behind that core, but against fewer bigger bets. So like the World Cup, like Americas 250. So there's more dollars going towards that, but we're making sure that it's in the big bets that are going to provide a return.

Yes. I mean just last comment there. I mean if you think about our visibility in live sports, we probably have the highest investment in live sports this year than we've had in a long, long time, right? So again, prior to meeting consumers where they are as relevant for our brands. So Tracey's point, appropriate level of investment, but making sure we can win with our consumers.

And let's switch gears a little bit to the somewhat recent acquisition, Monaco Cocktails. You just closed, I believe. And it does help close the gap in your RTD or the portfolio gap that you might have. So I'd love to hear more about your strategy to scale that brand, increase distribution, et cetera.

And then I think you've talked about that acquisition contributing a point of growth to the top line, but importantly, accretive on the bottom line. So maybe walk through that for us and how your strategy is evolving as it relates to M&A and kind of like you mentioned earlier, maybe a little bit more risk taking and...

Yes. I mean I can do the brand and portfolio. Tracey can do the numbers. If you think about the brand, right, we knew we had a gap in our portfolio. I mean, the whole flavor category has been so volatile from a consumer perspective. But we knew we had a gap on the RTD stuff. So I think if you think about Monaco it's been a business that's been around 10, 12 years. So this is not a new brand. The business was built in a very disciplined way on the back of singles, in convenience stores, in a very controlled geography, right?

I think the top 5 states probably make up 60%, 70% of the volume. And if you think about a big part of it is in signal. So it is a very disciplined business which we can then take and scale, right? So I mean, as an organization, we're pretty good at taking things that have got scale have got proven but then really making sure we can really make it bigger. So I think that's why it gets us and our team is excited.

Your point, it is about distribution. It is about capabilities, right? Convenience, if you look at our strength, we have good strength in convenience, but our big strength is in other big channels. And so therefore, then we can play that and build some capabilities with the people that have come on board. So that's where it's a great fit from a portfolio perspective. It's the right thing for us from a premiumization also, right? So compared to our normal NSR per hectoliter, this is a premium product. And so it does the right thing for us on premiumization. It is top line and bottom line accretive and gives us a good platform to really scale from there.

So it's the right fit for us. It fits the model and then it does fit within the metrics we laid out earlier. Over to Tracey.

Yes. I mean we said M&A going forward is going to -- must contribute between 1% and 2% of NSR and so on a trailing 12 months. And then importantly, also the bottom line, it must be profitable from day 1, and this brand is for us.

And so as I think about this acquisition that did just close, is it the priority to kind of focus on integrating this? And then will you continue to look at other potential M&A? How do you think about prioritizing those 2?

So in terms of execution, we got to make sure we -- the way we talk about it internally is don't drop a case, right? So we obviously had Fever-Tree last year. We executed that, integrating that, making sure we transition into our network with our distributors, get everything working and continuing the growth momentum we had on Fever-Tree last year and continuing to this year. So that is an important aspect, right?

And then we think about Monaco, right? And then how do we really make sure we integrate in this business, keep the commercial momentum that the brand has, accelerate the momentum and then look at all the other things that come along with that. So I think that's probably focus, Bonnie. I mean if you think of it, we don't need 10 more brands. We have a pretty strong portfolio. There's a few gaps we need to fill. And so -- and I'm sure Tracey will talk about capital allocation discipline, et cetera. But for us, it is about fill a gap in the portfolio, what makes sense for consumers, distributors and us and then integrate and accelerate, right? So -- and then everything else, Tracey, you want to add on the capital allocation discipline.

Yes. Just before I get on the sort of capabilities, I mean, what we do now going forward is we make sure that we can continue the business. And hence, we took over about 80 folks from Monaco business into our business. So they can continue to run the business and sell the brand and get the distribution.

And then we have another team doing the integration so that we're not -- we don't lose focus. But in terms of capital allocation, I mean, I've spoken about what a great job the company has done with their balance sheet. And so it does give us optionality that we can do more from an M&A point of view. And in the same time, return cash to shareholders as we have been doing with our share buybacks and paying dividends and then just keeping our balance sheet healthy. So we do have significant free cash flow, which is great. And therefore, we can do all of this.

Which has certainly changed when we've talked in the last years. So you're in a much better place today. And as you mentioned, Rahul, you see still some gaps in your portfolio. Do you care to expand where those gaps are. I'm curious.

Yes. I mean if you think about it, I mean the RTD space or the flavor space, I wouldn't call RTD. If you think about the flavor space, it's a big category now. And we want to make sure -- I mean, we love the fact what we've done with Topo Chico. We obviously have new ideas with simply in the market that we want to make sure we get that brand healthy. And so there's work to be done there. I mean those are great brands to keep building on.

And then I think Monaco adds a good complement to that in terms of channel, consumer. So for us, the priority is beyond beer. So if you think about capital deployment, it is going to be probably in the beyond beer side. We will always look at beer. But beyond beer is probably where we need some scale, Bonnie.

So again, right now, integrate Fever-Tree, integrate Monaco. As Tracey said, we -- our balance sheet gives us optionality, but we'll be disciplined about it, disciplined that we have the right brand and disciplined more importantly, that we integrate top, bottom line accretive and we can scale, that becomes important.

And yes, beyond beer being a price. So what percentage is beyond beer of your portfolio maybe today roughly? And then in the next 3 to 5 years, what would be the ambition to?

Yes. So I mean, if you think about it, we are approaching about 10-ish percent, right? I mean we started with 0, maybe not 0, less than 1%, right? I mean in beyond beer. We're approaching 10-ish percent of our total company NSR. And we need to make sure we get to be meaningful because we are -- and even I think we said this in our Q1 results, our Beyond Beer portfolio is growing faster than the rest of the company. It is growing at a much higher rate. And we -- unless we have that to scale, it doesn't do stuff to move the company forward, right? And we don't want to have a Beyond Beer portfolio that's 50 brands, right?

We're going to be disciplined about the categories we work in, disciplined about the brands we have, but we want to get at scale. We haven't shared an ambition externally, Bonnie, but I mean, you can think about the math. And unless it's not big enough, it doesn't do much for a $11.3 billion company, right? So we're pretty excited on that journey. We're early. We have more tools to work with, whether that's people, whether that's investment or the balance sheet. right? So I think the point Tracey made about getting capability and people is equally important in that space because it's different muscles.

No, true. And as I think about your business and your portfolio, I mean, the complexities have increased. But if you feel good about your ability to execute on all these different initiatives because any change capabilities that you think you have where you feel like you can execute on all of these different growth initiatives.

So I think that's a great question about complexity, right? I mean we've been disciplined to remove complexity from our business also, right? So if you think about the structure, if you think about the coming off some of our co-manufacturing arrangements, it was about removing complexities.

Now we are leaning into areas that make our business stronger for the long term, right. And by the way, this is not just us. If you look at our network, our distribution network, right? They're leaning into similar capabilities. So for us, this is more of making sure we have the right capabilities, not just for today's business, but also the long term. So -- and we're doing it in a disciplined way, right, whether it's G&A with the right brands, making sure we are building out teams with capabilities that are important. So again, I think we've shared this previously, our non-alc team used to be 6, 7 people, I think. Now we're about less than 200, right? So to your point, yes, that comes with some complexity, but you're building capabilities along with that complexity. So we feel good about making sure we have an ambitious goal for Beyond beer and then how are we best leading into that.

And I know we've touched on this or you mentioned it, whether it's Fever-Tree, Peroni, what has you the most excited or Monaco as you think about the next year? I mean is there anything that you think right now maybe is broadly underestimated?

Yes. I would definitely -- I mean, obviously, those are the big growth brands that we have, right? So they are exciting, Peroni, Fever-Tree, Banquet, Monaco. I think those will be the -- I think -- again, I know you don't talk a lot about Molson, the trademark in Canada, right? I mean that brand is doing well, gaining share and is in a good place. [indiscernible] Life continues to be 50 years to be the #1 beer in Canada. So we got a lot of good highlights. But the thing that I would love to be your point of a year from now, the excitement around Keystone and High Life and how do we make sure we can get some energy behind that. That's the thing that I'm looking forward to, right, that what as a team, we can really do to get that healthy, not just for consumers and our distributors, but for even us because we are a big brand.

And then that brings me maybe to my final question because it's your long-term algo, which I know you've mentioned you expect to return to your long-term algo of low single-digit top line growth and mid-single-digit underlying pretax income starting next year, right? So in the context of what you just mentioned, what will be the key drivers that will allow you to hit those?

So I know we've said that that's the goal. I don't think we gave '27 guidance, Bonnie, so just to be...

Maybe it was me being...

Yes. If you step back on our business, right, I mean, obviously, we, again, feel we've got a pretty good foundational business. We've been very disciplined about returning cash to shareholders, dividend and through buybacks. If you look at -- since 2025, I think our TSR, I think we reported in our 10-K earlier this year was 22-odd percent. So -- but we recognize for the next chapter of creating value for shareholders. We have to get this business to that algorithm, right, to low single and mid-single.

And obviously, volatile times right now. But between the right -- making sure our core of the portfolio is strong and stable and transforming our portfolio with the shape for the future, we think that's the right place to be. Right now, as we get through the year, we'll talk about '27 and what that looks like. But we still believe that, that is the right algorithm of where we think we create the most value for our shareholders, right? We will stay disciplined on the balance sheet. We'll return cash, but we recognize we got to get our business top and bottom line growing.

And optionality, as you mentioned, given the core and then everything you've been executing on. All right. Well, all of that sounds good, and thank you so much for the conversation. I appreciate your time. Thanks, everyone.

Thanks Bonnie.

Thank you.

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President, Commercial Finance, FP&A and Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator. Following prepared remarks today, we look forward to taking your questions. [Operator Instructions]. If you have technical questions on the quarter, please reach out to our IR team. Also, I encourage you to review our earnings release and earnings slides which are posted to the IR section of our website and provide detailed financial and operational metrics.

Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements as required by applicable law. The definitions of or reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results we discuss are versus the comparable prior year period and are in U.S. dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, share data references are sourced from Sircana in the U.S. and from Beer Canada and Canada unless otherwise indicated.

Further, in our remarks today, we will reference underlying pretax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release. And with that, over to you, Rahul.

Thank you, Greg. Now before I begin, I want to recognize our team for the focus and commitment they've demonstrated this year. We're operating in times and the work happening across our markets gives me confidence in our people and our direction. In the first quarter, we announced Horizon 2030, our strategy designed to strengthen our business and drive long-term value creation. We took action right away. For example, we said we'd leverage M&A to fill portfolio gaps, and we did just that by establishing a position in RTDs.

We also said we'd extend our share buyback program, and we executed on that as well. because we believe our shares are a compelling investment. While it's early in the year, we navigated a complex external environment and continue to make progress against our strategy. At the same time, the U.S. beer category started the year on better footing. However, macro uncertainty continues to put pressure on input cost and consumer behavior, especially lower income consumers. For beer, the number of trips and buyers improved while consumer sentiment declined. In EMEA And APAC macro pressures increased over the quarter, driven by geopolitical events, including the conflict in Iran impacting fuel costs and consumer sentiment.

Now that said, we believe Molson Coors is positioned to navigate this moment and strengthen our business, supported by our strong balance sheet, free cash flow generation and our portfolio that spans price points, geographies and consumer occasions. And based on what we are seeing today, we are reaffirming our full year guidance and remain confident in our ability to execute against our priorities. As we move through 2026, we're acting with speed and intent balancing near-term execution with our goal of long-term growth.

In Q1, we continued to sharpen our portfolio focus strengthen our commercial model and move accountability closer to our customers and consumers. While these efforts will take time to show up in our results, we're encouraged by the early progress. Our strategy begins with building strong and scalable brands that matter across beer and beyond beer. Our momentum in bars and restaurants and venues is a great example. Across the on-premise, our top 6 brands all delivered share growth in the quarter based on Nielsen CGA.

This includes Miller Lite, Miller High Life, Coors Light, Banquet, Blue Moon and Peloni demonstrating our strength in the channel across a range of price points. In Q1, we were among the top bev-alc Barak advertisers during March Madness and the exclusive sponsor of ESPN's bracket challenge reflecting our commitment to high-impact occasions. Looking ahead to the summer, we are also making a single largest media environment in many years tied to the World Cup, which will include multiple brands across our portfolio. This investment includes in-match media buys, extensive local activation in key markets, podcasts and influencer partnerships.

Now let's get into how our core brands performed in Q1. While U.S. brand volume trends improved, our share wasn't where we wanted it to be. We are executing against the actions we outlined in February, including new creative for all the 3 of our U.S. core brands. Coors Banquet continues to build momentum. And in Q1, it returned to national sports advertising for the first time in 5 years, an important milestone for a brand with enduring consumer relevance.

Miller Lite faced challenges in the quarter, mostly driven by heightened competition in a couple of U.S. regions. So we are working quickly and taking targeted actions, including new ads in English and Spanish for the World Cup and a custom visual identity and activation platform for America's 25th anniversary. Outside the U.S., we are also taking steps to protect and strengthen our core brands. In Canada, Coors Light remains the #1 premium light beer and is holding industry share. In the U.K., we reintroduced a fan favorite in Carling Black Label. And in Central and Eastern Europe, several of our key brands including and Yellen remain #1 or #2 brands in their home markets despite challenging economic conditions.

Now moving to the value segment. We've acted quickly while recognizing this is a long-term journey. While Miller High Life share has been fairly stable and is doing particularly well on premise, the needs some attention, and we are taking action. Distributor orders for Keystone Apple are pacing ahead of expectations. And even more recently, our decision to reintroduce Keystone Ice was extremely well received by our network. We're encouraged by the early signals as well as the continued expansion of Miller High Life Light, which is now available in 22 states and performing well.

Turning to above premium beer we held U.S. industry share in Q1, supported by our priority brands. Peroni continues to gain momentum and saw increased media investment during the Winter Olympics. Blue Wound non-alc also continues to perform well, and we recently launched new creative for the Blue Moon franchise. We're encouraged by the sustained on-premise trend improvements for Belgium Wide, while recognizing that a full turnaround will depend on continued focus and consistent execution.

In the U.K., we saw some softness inventory, driven by aggressive competitive pricing. Importantly, we do not believe this is a brand health issue. We're responding with intention, adjusting our commercial actions to remain competitive while protecting Madri's long-term strength. Our media investment for Madri is just now turning on for the year, and we continue to build the franchise with innovation like Madri Livon.

Moving to Beyond Beer. We're scaling up here and we're making great progress. This is the fastest-growing part of our portfolio, supported by brands like Fever Tree, Hard and as of this month, Monaco cocktails in the United States. Fever Tree delivered strong execution and contributed meaningfully to our top line performance in this quarter. The brand continues to resonate with distributors, retailers and consumers reinforcing our confidence in its long-term potential.

We just launched the brand's first national ad campaign in the U.S. a few weeks ago, which we will be supporting with in-person events at sponsorships this summer, including the PGA Tour.

Moving to Topo Chico Hard, which returned to growth in Q1 after our regional focus last year. The turnaround of this brand is a prime example of local execution down right. Looking ahead, we believe Topo Chico Hard will benefit from World Cup media support in both English and Spanish language. We also announced the acquisition of atomic brand maker of Monaco Cocktails during this quarter. This brand is highly incremental to our portfolio and strengthens our position in convenience

Importantly, we believe Monaco fits naturally within our route to market and gives us a platform to compete in RTDs. Integration is now underway, and we are approaching it with rigor. Monaco adds immediate scale to our portfolio and it fits into the M&A criteria that we outlined in February. As we expect Monaco to contribute about 1% to global MSR on a trailing 12-month basis, while also delivering incremental profitability in year 1 with 9 months in our portfolio.

As part of this deal, we also retained about 80 members of Monaco sales teams, providing continuity and immediately expanding coverage for our Beyond Beer portfolio. Combined with the team members we added for non-ag last year, we are meaningfully expanding our execution muscle at the point of sale. These feet on street should allow us to be more present for our customers, more agile in the marketplace and more effective across Beyond Beer. To further support our portfolio ambition, we've also continued to rewire how our teams operate with an emphasis on speed and bold actions. We've implemented changes to our operating model including clear performance measurements and revised incentive structures, ensuring that our people have both the authority and accountability to drive the business. We've established new routines for our commercial teams that encourage responsive investments across the portfolio rather than silo brand level budgets.

This approach recognizes that our commercial investments should be dithering with clear trade-offs being made to fund the highest impact initiatives in realtime. This practice takes local dynamics into account, in addition to factors like marketing effectiveness. These changes are designed to drive a strong results-oriented mindset across the organization while also improving the team's speed and execution. We've also taken steps to advance our 3-year $450 million cost savings program, announcing further actions in Q1 to strengthen our cost base. These include restructuring actions in EMEA and APAC and closing a brewery in the U.K. alongside other operational changes designed to unlock efficiencies in a region facing cost inflation and increasing macro uncertainty.

These actions help us manage 2 periods of higher inflation, while the initiatives we put in place in the Americas last year should also deliver a benefit in 2026, help offset cost pressures. Traci will discuss this further, but to summarize, we are operating amid heightened valuability and are managing through it thoughtfully.

Finally, Capital discipline remains central to how we run Molson Coors. We continue to apply a balanced capital allocation approach, investing behind our brands, pursuing M&A to strengthen the portfolio and returning cash to shareholders. We remain committed to our dividend and share repurchase program, and we continue to view Molson Coors as a compelling long-term investment.

Now as we move into summer, we are clear-eyed about the work required to strengthen our business. This is complex work. We recognize it will take time. And while the external environment remains dynamic, 3 things hold true. Our direction is clear, our priorities are defined and our teams are executing with urgency and in depth. Just as importantly, where performance has been more pressured, we are now addressing it with far greater precision. For brands like Miller Lite, we have a much clearer view into where and why and how it's performing by region, by channel or by execution lever, and we are taking targeted actions.

This sharper diagnostic approach gives us the confidence that we can stabilize trends and rebuild momentum overtime. The progress we're seeing across many brands, the more targeted ways we are addressing challenges and the operating changes we put in place all gives us confidence in our ability to improve portfolio performance and create long-term value.

Now with that, I'll turn it over to Tracey to discuss our financial performance and outlook.

Thank you, Rahul. In the first quarter, on a constant currency basis, consolidated net sales revenue was up 0.1% and underlying pretax income was up 16.2%. Underlying earnings per share increased 24%. On an underlying basis, the key quarterly drivers were positively impacted by some phasing considerations, but otherwise, were largely in line with our expectations. The U.S. beer industry was down minus 1.6% based on our internal estimates. Our U.S. volume share was down 60 basis points based on our internal estimates, including relatively better share performance in the on-premise channel compared to the off-premise.

U.S. domestic shipments outpaced brand volumes, resulting in a roughly 1 percentage point benefit to America's financial volume in the quarter. EMEA and APAC brand volume declined 3.4%, primarily driven by ongoing soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape in the U.K. The Midwest premium remained elevated, adding approximately [ $13 ] million of year-on-year cost increase to Q1 cost of goods sold. And G&A was down 9.1%, largely due to lapping approximately $30 million in prior year transition costs, coupled with lower employee-related costs which more than offset additional investments in technology.

Turning to the balance sheet. At quarter end, net debt to underlying EBITDA was 2.5x. This was an expected increase from year-end 2025, as we normally see a sequential uptick in the first quarter given lower cash balances. Earlier this year, we announced that we had increased both the amount and the duration of our stock repurchase program, increasing our total authorization to up to $4 billion through December 31, 2031. And in the first quarter, we continued to make progress against this authorization.

We paid $94 million in cash dividends and $164 million to repurchase 3.4 million shares in the quarter. Since the plan was announced in October 2023, we have repurchased 14.8% of our Class B shares outstanding. And as we previously announced, in the first quarter, we raised our quarterly dividend to $0.48. This is an increase of 2.1% and represented our fifth consecutive year of increases. This clearly demonstrates our intention to sustainably increase our dividend. And given our share repurchases, we were able to raise the dividend while decreasing absolute dividend cash payment.

With that, let's discuss our outlook. As Rahul mentioned, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance. Now before we get into the details, I'll remind you that the impacts of the global macro environment are multifaceted and difficult to predict. And while we have included in our guidance our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results either up or down.

Starting with the top line, we expect to ship to consumption in the U.S. but now expect some variability by quarter. After relatively stronger performance in the first quarter, we expect our U.S. shipments to be down 6% to 9% in the second quarter our brand volume trends with shipments outpacing brand volumes in the second half of the year. And with the addition of monitor cocktails, we will recognize 9 months of NSR and profit contribution as we integrate the Monaco brand portfolio into our network. This impact is included in our guidance assumptions. All other top line drivers remain largely unchanged.

We continue to expect the full year 2026 U.S. industry volume trend to improve versus the down 5% we experienced in 2025 and expect our balance of year share performance to improve versus the first quarter as we continue to execute our strategy. We continue to expect an annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America in line with the average historical range and expect mix benefits from premiumization in both business units.

Moving down the P&L, we expect COGS to continue to be negatively impacted by rising commodity costs, as premium and base aluminum remain elevated versus the prior year. EMEA and APAC, in particular, experienced additional uncertainty given current geopolitical issues. On Midwest premium, we continue to expect elevated costs relative to 2025. For the balance of 2026, we believe we have meaningful hedge coverage, meaning that the impact of the recent rise in prices since February should be a manageable headwind. And on phasing, we expect Midwest premium to be inflationary over the balance of the year with the largest increase currently anticipated in Q2.

Recall that last year, we highlighted that the rising cost of Midwest premium was a $35 million headwind with most of the increase realized in half 2. As for MD&A, we continue to expect a significant increase versus 2025 over the balance of the year due to several factors. First, as previously highlighted, we expect incentive compensation expenses to be higher than 2025, with the largest increase expected in the second quarter. We also expect to make additional capability and technology investments to help drive our strategy and modernize our ERP system. And as with most acquisitions, we will have higher costs in the first year as we integrate the Monaco business.

As an example, we are adding over 80 members to our sales team and expect to incur additional costs as we market and integrate the brand into our business. And to mitigate near-term headwinds, we continue to take deliberate actions in driving our 3-year $450 million cost savings program. Rahul mentioned the actions we put in place in EMEA during the first quarter. We've also taken additional cost savings actions that are designed to optimize our supply chain within the Americas. These actions are expected to add to the savings driven by the implementation of the Americas structure and operating model at the beginning of the year.

And lastly, we remain focused on driving capital allocation decisions that we believe deliver long-term shareholder value. We've just added Monaco Cocktails to our portfolio and have again made meaningful progress in executing our share repurchase program. We continue to be a very cash-generative business. And looking forward, we continue to have optionality in supporting growth initiatives, returning cash to shareholders and evaluating debt paydown versus refinancing scenarios, while continuing to expect our year-end leverage ratio to remain below 2.5x.

In closing, with a solid start to the year, a strong global brand portfolio, a healthy balance sheet and strong cash generation, we are confident in our ability to navigate near-term uncertainty while supporting the long-term health of our business and brands.

And with that, we will take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

Rahul, I was hoping to get your perspective on the U.S. beer industry. I think you mentioned like a 1.6% decline in Q1. Just what are your expectations as we move forward into the summer, especially with the World Cup and the Americas 250? And then, Tracey, I was hoping you can provide a little bit more color on the reason behind different shipment versus depletions in Q2 in the back half? What is driving the undershipment in Q2 and then stronger shipments in the back half?

Thank you for the question. If you think about the industry, and we spoke about this in February, coming into this year, we did expect 2026 to be better than 2025, right? And if you think about consumer sentiment and obviously, the challenges the category had in '25, the quarter 1 has turned out to be, I would say, a little bit better than what we expected. And all the science suggests that the balance of the year continues to be strong versus 2025.

Your question about how do we see the summer? I mean, we're pretty excited about going into the summer for a couple of reasons for the category and for our portfolio. We have some big events that are occasion friendly from a beer perspective. So whether that's Americas 250th celebration, whether that's the World Cup, so we feel pretty good about the balance of the year in terms of what the category can do compared to 2025.

Now we do need to just keep in mind some of the volatility that still exists from a consumer perspective, as you probably saw at the end of March, early April, fuel prices, consumer sentiment in the U.S. was pretty low. So again, we remain cautious in terms of -- and balance, but I definitely see the category being healthier than what 2025 is. And the exciting part in this is for our portfolio, right? I mean all the commercial tools that we have in getting behind our brands, whether it's in Coors Light or to a World Cup or it's Miller Lite with Americas 250, all the other brands, I mean all of that is coming live right now and getting into the summer. So I would say, broadly speaking, healthier category this year versus last year, and a lot to get excited about going into the summer. Tracey, do you want to touch on the Q2?

Yes. Thanks, Rahul. Listen, so I think overall, we want to say that we do expect to ship to consumption in the U.S. for the year, but we do expect some variability in the quarter. So as we said, we expect our STW to be down between 6% and 9% in the second quarter, trailing the brand volume trends. But we've been with shipments outpacing STRs for the second half of the year. So specifically, what impacts Q2, just looking at Q1, we did have some challenges with some one-off events related to weather and energy supply, et cetera, to our facilities, and we had some challenges with upgrades that we were making in our breweries and then also some challenge with some of our suppliers, particularly glass supply.

But we have been working with our suppliers, and we were able to ship ahead of the brand volume in the quarter. But there still remains a few pinch points in some of our packages and our network is feeling it. But our team is focused on this, and we're confident that we'll continue to make progress throughout the quarter, and we are communicating consistently with our network. Also recall that we're citing relatively higher inventory levels from Q2 of last year. And then in addition, for Q2, we do have some planned downtime to make some line upgrades in our Shenandoah brewery.

So that's also contributing to lower shipments versus the last year. But look, importantly, this is a temporary disruption. And we are expecting to benefit from our efficiencies and our qualities with all of these upgrades, et cetera, that we're making in the long term.

Yes. And if I could add something, Tracey. I mean we have a strong commercial program planned for the summer, and we feel good about making sure we can execute against that. And as Tracey mentioned, there is maybe a couple of packages that we have a few bench points on that we're working very closely with our network on.

Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

Great. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Maybe picking up on that a little bit. So you touched on the optimism around the path forward and related to Filippo's question. But obviously, the world has changed a bit over the last 2 months. So I'm just curious if you've seen any shift in demand or channel dynamics as you exited the quarter or through April? And then just the guidance for Q2, minus 6% to me, I mean, that's a relatively wide range for 1 quarter. So can you maybe help us understand what do we think to be at the more favorable end of that versus the lower end?

Yes. I think, Peter, I mean I know we don't talk about in-quarter results. But I think to your point of sentiment, I think that's where the, I would say, somewhat cautioned in the balance of the year thinking, right? I mean there is still some variability if you think about just what happened in the Middle East and the impact across consumer sentiment at the end of March, fuel prices play an important role in terms of how consumers think in terms of purchasing at convenience.

So again, we're going into the summer with a level of confidence because we do have a lot of high beer occasion events planned. But on the other hand, we recognize the macro issues still around the category. So that's why we -- I would still mention that category health this year is probably better than 2025. How that plays out in the next few quarters, I think we'll obviously keep watching. So hopefully, that answers your first question.

I think your question of phasing of Q2. Within the 6 and 9, I mean, we obviously, as Tracey mentioned, our goal is to always shift to consumption, that's what we're going to keep focused on. It's just we wanted to make sure we were being transparent in terms of on how second quarter is going to play out. Our supply chain teams are absolutely working with some of our glass suppliers to make sure we can get enough product out to our distributors. But again, these are particular packages in particular geographies. But overall, we feel good about making sure we can meet the moment in the summer.

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

So in the presentation, you talked about you would expect market shares to improve over the balance of the year relative to the first quarter. Can you just give us a sense of what an improvement means, does that mean back to share growth and some of the key drivers as you see them? And you just -- one, I guess, like logistical clarification, when you say that inflation will be the highest in Q2, are you referring to the increase in COGS per hectoliter should be the highest in Q2 relative to the full year? .

Thank you. So I'll take the first 2, and Tracey, maybe the inflation one, you can. So Chris, you're absolutely right in terms of share and as I said in my prepared remarks, I mean, we have work to do there. It is not where we want it to be. So if you break down our portfolio and shares and even Q1 and going into the balance of the year, I would say we've made progress, obviously, on the flavor side. So if you look at Pochico and flavor as a whole, I would say we've got to growth, share in growth, so flavor, we're making progress.

If you look at our above premium beer, we're definitely making good progress in terms of share. The value segment is where we have had a leaky bucket for a long time, and that's why we emphasized on this as part of our new strategy. And frankly, this is where we have more work to do going forward. So High Life, I would say, is doing okay, and we have more on Keystone. So to your point of market share and balance of year, value is something we need to show progress on.

Now one of the things we have done is done a few things to make sure we can get Keystone stronger. And so we are obviously launching Keystone Apple, getting ready for summer. We're bringing back Keystone Ice. So we have a few things in the pipeline that we've announced with our network to make sure we can slow down the leaky bucket in a way for our value part of the portfolio. I would say in our core portfolio, that's where probably we have a little bit more work to do on Miller Lite. and continues to grow Miller Lite is holding its own in a good way.

But Miller Lite in a couple of regions in the U.S. in Q1 I would say we have more work to do there. But the good part is that we know where the issues are. We're taking actions, whether it's through campaigns, whether it's through other commercial levers. And this is where the local execution matters, right? Because this is not a national concern is in the particular geographies where there's competitive action, and our teams are reacting swiftly and strongly.

So I think from your point of share, that's an important measure for us. Obviously, STR trends in Q1 were better than Q4. But I believe we have the right plans and get into summer. I think your question on drivers, I mean, those were the big ones that I would break out for different parts of our portfolio. And maybe the only other element I'd call out is a lot of the things we have on commercial pressure and the cyclicality of our business, as you know, is summer. So the next 4, 5 months, 6 months become important to win the year, and I think our teams are pretty energized to go after that. Tracey, do you want to talk about the inflation point?

Yes, Chris. So look, we do expect COGS to continue to be negatively impacted by the rising commodity costs that we're seeing. The Midwest premium and base aluminum and our fuel prices have continued to increase versus last year. Specific to Q2, we are expecting the Middle East premium to be inflationary again. But that largest increase we currently anticipate in Q2. Because if you recall last year, we highlighted that the rising cost of the Middle East premium was about a $35 million headwind, but most of that increase was realized in the second half of the year. So hopefully, that helps.

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cohen.

This is [ Seamus Cassidy ] on for Rob. I wanted to ask about capital allocation. You repurchased 3.4 million shares in the quarter, which was a big increase year-over-year, while simultaneously closing Monaco and you ended the quarter just above your 2.5x target leverage range. So question is how do you rank order those priorities from here? Specifically, is buyback pace a lever you pull back on? Do you delever towards the target? Or does the 2.5x ceiling kind of flex upward if the right incremental M&A opportunity were to come along?

Good morning. Thanks for that. Tracey, do you want to take that one? .

Yes, sure. Look, we do intend by the end of the year that our leverage ratio is back to the 2.5x below 2.5x. Now remember, Q1 is a cash use quarter for us. And so typically, we do expect the leverage to be a little bit higher. But as I say, our intention is to be aligned with the leverage ratio of below 2.5x by the end of the year. In terms of how we look at capital allocation, I mean, there are 3 main buckets. We use models to determine how it's return for our shareholders in particular year. And so of those buckets, we focused on continuing to invest behind our business, whether that be behind our brands or with M&A.

And we announced on the first of April our acquisition of the Monaco Cocktail brands. So that would have been a use of our capital. But also, we do intend to continue to return cash to shareholders. And that is one of the capital allocation priorities. Now returning cash to shareholders is both dividends and share buybacks. From a dividend point of view, the intention is to sustainably increase our dividend, just as we have done for the last 5 years.

And then as it relates to share buybacks because we do see our shares as a compelling investment. We did announce in February the extension of the program to the end of December 2021 and also the increase to $4 billion. So typically, we would look at our capital allocation priorities and make sure that we are getting the best return for our shareholders, and that may differ from quarter-to-quarter. But we are still focused on on returning cash to shareholders.

The 1 thing this year is we do have a $2.4 billion debt coming due in July. And we have approval to refinance somewhere between $1.1 billion and $1.9 billion of that debt. So that's also one of the capital allocation priorities is to make sure our balance sheet remains strong, and we maintain our target debt leverage ratio.

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

Great. I was wanted you talk a little bit about the value brand strategy in the U.S. that you talked about at CAGNY, particularly on sort of the more localized approach. You discussed it as being kind of analysis phase. But curious kind of where you stand on that? Are you starting to move into implementation mode, any kind of key thoughts as you move forward on that front? Because in the prepared remarks, you spoke more about -- you did speak about Miller, of course, and like local issues there, but really want to hone on the value portfolio.

Thank you, Lauren. No, absolutely. I think it's a great point because if you think about our focus on value historically, I mean -- and if you -- if you look at our results, I mean it has been a big leaky bucket, as I call it, right? And so we do need to -- we are putting all the right plans in place in terms of localizing. So if you look at our portfolio in terms of the value brand, we have a pretty large base of our business in the United States on value, but it is a very localized portfolio.

I mean we have 2 big brands with Miller High Life and Keystone but then a number of other brands that are very local. So first, we want to make sure our big value brands are in a healthier place. So if you think about High Life on-premise share is pretty good. And if you look at Nielsen CGA, we grew share with High Life and on-premise. So I think you're going to continue to see us focus on High Life in different ways. I think I talked previously about High Life Light. Again, expanding into not the entire country, but I think we have now -- we have that now in about 20-odd states.

So we are going to be very localized in terms of being sure that brands works well. Keystone is something we have more work to do, but you see us innovating around Keystone now with Apple with also Keystone Ice and bringing that in particular geographies. Again, when we talk about execution being local, that applies to our entire value portfolio. These brands have a lot of loyalty, a lot of following in particular parts of the country. And therefore, how we invest behind these brands, how we execute behind these brands is very different than how we think of worldwide and Miller Light. So it is something which is an important part of our strategy. It is something that probably will take a little more time just given our historical trends and the plans that we need to put in place.

But I would say it's been a positive part of our portfolio for our distributors and our teams to get behind because it's a big part of our business and for our distributors. So more to come, Lauren, on this as we make progress, but hopefully gives you a few of the actions and drivers that we are taking to get this part of our portfolio to be a little bit more healthy.

Our next question comes from Drew Levine with JPMorgan.

Tracey, I wanted to ask if we could double-click on the cost phasing, on COGS, particularly related to the Midwest premium? You noted it was $30 million in 1Q, peaks in 2Q. I think the prior commentary from last quarter was that overall it'd be $125 million headwind to the year. So one, can you just confirm whether that $125 million number is still good to think about or maybe it's moved higher?

And secondarily, if you'd be able to maybe provide a little bit more context or dimensionalize the incremental headwind in 2Q relative to 1Q? And then, Rahul, just sort of playing off that, the commentary around input costs moving higher, you are hedged, and I think Tracey mentioned for a good part of 2026. But just thinking about the pricing environment, some of your peers, I think, are sort of projecting lower pricing this year around maybe 1%. Maybe you could just talk to or industry willingness to take more pricing in light of the escalating cost pressures?

Thank you. I think, Tracey, do you want to take the first part of it?

Yes, sure. So we did say at CAGNY that our guidance does assume an elevated Middle East premium which would impact our pretax income growth by about 9 to 10 percentage points. And that equated to that minimum of $125 million that would be at the low end of the range that you mentioned. And as expected, the Midwest premium and the base aluminum remains elevated versus last year. And then as we said in Q1, the Midwest Premium added about $30 million of year-over-year cost increase due to the cost of goods sold. But we have spoken about our extensive hedging program. We've also spoken about how difficult and how expensive it is to hedge the Midwest premium. .

But we do believe for this year that we have meaningful hedge coverage, meaning that the impact of the recent price increases that we saw in February for us is a manageable headwind. And then just in terms ofon the phasing side, we do expect the Midwest premium to be -- continue to be inflationary over the balance of the year. But the largest increase currently anticipated in Q2, as we said last year, we did speak about most of the $35 million was coming in the back half of the year. Rahul?

Yes. So I think generally, maybe to pick up on a couple of comments there. Obviously, we have a lot of focus on making sure our top line and our brands are executing well in the context of consumer pressure. But I think as Tracey said, the teams are managing through a pretty complex input cost context, right, whether it is invest aluminum, obviously, there's phasing of when investment went high last year, which was in the second half versus lapping of this year. So I think those are the things that's playing out that I would say the teams are trying to manage through that, both with respect to risk mitigation, but also with the cost savings initiatives that we put in place.

Your question about pricing and how we think about it. I mean, it is still within the 1% and 2% range, the guide of the guardrails we talked about earlier. But it is a competitive context out there. I think we're going to remain competitive for our brands. We talked about share and wanting to make sure we win with our brands. So probably can't comment on what my peers are doing with respect to pricing. But I think if you think about our business, we think about pricing, very, very granularly by brand, by geography. So we're going to continue to stay disciplined on that. We're going to obviously still be within the guardrails we shared, but we've got to be competitive.

We want to be competitive in the context of where the consumer is. Now the good part in this is the last comment is I go back to our portfolio, right? So we have pretty broad portfolio. And so we're excited about the value portfolio that we have because we can meet consumers at different price points. So I think we got all your questions there, but thank you.

Our next question comes from Christian Junquera with Bank of America.

It's Christian on for Pete. I appreciate the color you guys gave on how to think about MG&A expense for 2Q, but can you walk us through on how MG&A should trend during the second half of the year? Any color on phasing of marketing and sales expense versus general and administrative expenses would be helpful?

And Tracey, do you want to take that one?

Yes. Thanks, Christian. So look, we do expect MG&A to be a significant increase versus 2025 over the balance of the year. There's a number of factors that go into that. We've spoken about the incentive compensation expenses will be higher than last year, with the largest increase coming in the second quarter. We also expect to make additional capability and technology investments that will help drive our strategy and modernize our ERP system. And then as Rahul mentioned, with any acquisition, we will have higher costs in the first year as we integrate the Monaco business into our business. And as an example, as we said, we're adding over 80 members to our sales team.

We also expect to incur additional costs as we also market and integrate this brand into our business. And then typically, we spend most of our marketing dollars in the summer selling season. And obviously, with the the Soccer World Cup as well as Americas 250, you'll see continued pressure behind our brands. So that we show up on shelf, we show up to our consumers and drive our great brands into the summer.

Yes. Tracey, again, and just maybe to add a little color to that. Again, I think we said this in either the prepared remarks. I mean we're making some of our biggest investment in things like live sports, right, in the summer going into the next couple of quarters. So again, strong plans for our brands showing up in the right occasions, but also doing things differently, right, in terms of how we make sure our brands connect with consumers and with retailers. So thank you, Chris.

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

I guess, Rahul, when you think about coming into your first year, if you think about taking risks, which us investor analyst types give you a little more freedom to do at the beginning. Are there any sort of big risks or big sort of things that you're thinking about, you really want to sort of go for in this first 12 months? And then, Tracey, to dig into the capital allocation question. When you think about your comments specifically on the stock being very compelling, what metrics are you using in terms of how you're thinking about the category, the profitability, it's obviously a long-term decision. So what are some of the sort of base metrics that you're thinking about when you think about buying back shares and the value of the business versus the current trading

So thank you for that. Your question, the first one, is a good 1 in terms of risk. And I'd go back and talk a little bit about 2030 when we laid out our new plan, right? So obviously, we have a good business, but we know what our portfolio challenges are, which I know a number of you are obviously familiar with. And we are working, I would say, in 2 different contexts, right? One is making sure our core is healthy and strong, and on the other hand, transforming our portfolio.

And we are being a lot more aggressive in transforming our portfolio than we have previously probably So we are going to use our balance sheet in a stronger way. I think we shared metrics previously that are beyond beer agenda. We're getting up to close to 10% or we want to make sure we can make that meaningful, right, because you can then have a growth profile for this business for the future. I think some of the actions we are taking in terms of how we're executing the reorientation of being local, the reorientation of reallocation of our spend in ways that can meet our consumers, whether it's live sports or being very local.

I think it is big changes that we are implementing for our organization the parts maybe we haven't spoken a lot about, but we want to make sure this category is healthy. So when we talk about championing beer, it is something we will continue to find opportunities and ways to keep focused on that. So I would probably point you back to the plans we laid out at Horizon 2030. We want to make sure we can take some of these big swings and the changes we are implementing for our system and for our business internally, but they are to get this business back into the medium-term growth commitments that we've made.

Now capital allocation is another key element of some of the changes we're making in a big way, right? I know I'll pass it on to Tracey on the buyback comment, but again, using our balance sheet, investing in our business, but then also making sure we can recognize and reward our shareholders in that journey. So Tracey, you want to...

Yes. Kaumil, I mean, I think the important thing is, look, we put a very strong balance sheet. And because of the strength of our balance sheet, it does give us optionality. And when we look at capital allocation, and we run it through our model, we do take a long-term view on it. And that's why you hear us saying we're going to invest in our business to drive sustainable long-term growth because it's that sustainable long-term growth that is going to drive the share price as well.

So we look at it long term. We look at what we believe the investment behind our brands, the investments behind M&A, the growth in our business, what that will mean for our share price. But as we're looking at that, obviously, because we have the strong balance sheet, we've got very strong free cash flow, we're able to do both. And so knowing that our strategy and our plans are all around sustainable growth, growing both the top line and the bottom line. And we believe that our share is a compelling investment. We are able to do both. So that's how we look at it.

Yes. And maybe to your question of just macro, how we think about the category, and we -- I think we recognize some of the challenges the category has. But again, we believe the category is going to get healthier as it is doing in '26 versus '25. And there's, as I mentioned, a little responsibility on everybody in the industry to make sure the category is in a stronger place in the future.

The next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

Two for me, please. You called out Q1 doing a bit better at the market level in the U.S. I'm curious to hear what you believe were the underlying factors behind this. There's obviously the number and you called out consumer confidence season deterioration. So what do you think are the drivers of that being a little bit better than you expected? And then the second question, you called out different channel dynamics when it comes to the behaviors of consumers, how that relates to their position and their consumer confidence. Could you expand a little bit on that? Are you seeing different behaviors by pack size, downtrading? Anything else that can give us a flavor of how that U.S. consumer is reacting from the lens of a brewer like yourself?

Yes, thank you for that question. So if you think about Q1, obviously, Q1 was lapping a pretty bad quarter last year, right? So that's -- I would say that's a little bit of a baseline. But if you look at consumer trends, and I would call it out in maybe a couple of different ways. One is there is a group of consumers that are, I would say, pretty healthy. I mean that's where you see brands like Peroni, brands like continue to grow. So you do have a consumer cohort that is, I would say, doing okay.

And the good part is we need to accelerate our portfolio with that consumer. But if you think about low-income consumer, et cetera, I mean, this year, trips are up -- call it, visits up in terms of stores. Now we can take a look at maybe, call it, size of basket, et cetera, I think there's still some pressure there, but in terms of both trips, households, et cetera, purchasing is up. So I think that this shows there's a little bit of confidence into -- coming into Q1. Obviously, there has been a little bit of a reasonable way lens on this. I mean, the West is significantly stronger this year versus last year.

So there is some elements, I would say that giving us promise, right, as we think about the category and looking at it. Obviously, I balance that with still caution and just as we think about the balance of the year with obviously inflationary headwinds, the gas pricing at the end of the quarter and into April. But broadly, '26 should be better than '25. Your question then on channel. I mean that's an important one for us because in our category, consumers usually stick to the brands.

And what we're seeing, and this couple of trends have been longer term, right? I mean the move into singles, the move into large bags, I mean those bags continue to do much better. The pressure has been on, I would call, small packs and medium packs. Small packs have done slightly better than Q1. And so there's definitely that element, again, both on the giving us confidence, but recognizing that people are still looking for particular price points, right? So small -- sorry, singles and large pack continue to be the main driver of people making their decisions.

And then I do go back to, call it, value portfolio in terms of it shows up in different ways, maybe higher ABV or value portfolio in terms of beer. And this is why just one comment on Monaco, which gives us an excitement is, this business is predominantly a singles business and it's in convenience. So while we obviously are excited about the brand and the platform, it gives us for our business, Tracey talked about the people that are coming along with this business. And it's a great platform for us as we think about not just Monaco, but our overall capability. So hopefully, it gives you a sense of, I think, the 2, 3 parts of your question. So thank you for that.

Our next question comes from Gerald Pascarelli with Needham & Company.

Great. Thank you. Rahul, I'd like to go back to the World Cup. It's a huge on-premise beer drinking occasion and your on-premise share trends currently look better than in the off-premise. I think that's what you mentioned in the prepared remarks. So that would seem like a clear channel advantage, especially considering some of the challenges in that channel, currently being realized from some of your competitors. So maybe if you could provide some color or commentary on just your level of optimism and the tailwind that you think that event could have on your volume trends related to channel, I think, would be helpful.

So thank you. Great. So if you think about 1 of the things that I know we've spoken about and I think broadly, probably heard from the whole industry is, we talk about occasions, right? We talk about wanting to make sure we can engage with our consumers and occasions. And I think that's where we get excited about something like the World Cup because it gives us a platform and occasions to really engage with our consumers. It is like Super Bowl for particular cities, right? That's what's happening is you've got multiple games in different parts of the country.

And we got to make sure we are showing up to engage with consumers. So to your point of what gets us excited is, obviously, this plays into our our on-premise strength, but also making sure we can drive new occasions over the summer in bringing people around our brands. There's an element of people coming into the country for these games, again, we'll see how that plays out. But there's an element of, again, occasions for travelers coming into the country. And then to your point of how do we get folks excited about connecting to our brand. So if -- again, I'm going to make a little bit of a plug here for our new campaign, but if you guys go check out YouTube with the like campaign it is a way of engaging our consumers in fun ways, but resonating our brands with them.

So I think to your point of its occasions, it's obviously channel and execution in retail and execution on-premise is important. But then it is about making sure our brands resonate with our fans. Yes, so I think excited. We feel we're going in with the right pressure and something to get rally around.

Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher with Rothschild & Co Redburn.

A quick question on the integration of Monaco. I mean 10 years ago, you were buying craft beer brands and integrating them into the business. Can you give us a sense on Monaco about how you're going to retain these people that are coming across? Because it's a move into a new category, how are you going to ensure that you retain these salespeople. Is the founder locked in -- and then on the mechanics of it, I believe it's production is still outsourced. Is there scope to integrate that in the near term? And do you see an international opportunity in some of your other markets, particularly in the U.K. for these sorts of products?

Yes, thank you for that question. And I know you asked the question about Monaco integration. So I'm going to comment I start the comment with Fevertree because I want to make sure in terms of these brands, the discipline around integration is super important. And I think we've shown that with Fevertree as we focused on making sure we don't drop a case, right? So integrating Fevertree along with their teams, partnering and understanding what these brands stand for is important. Again, Monaco, we obviously closed in April.

And our goal is to make sure we keep the magic that this brand has. I mean this is a brand that's been around for a while, right? This is not something that just grew in the last 3, 4, 2, 3 years. I mean this has been around for 10-plus years, and they have built this business very diligently on the back of a clear proposition with clear channel execution. And so we want to make sure we can bring that magic into our business. So that's where our focus is on making sure our teams we bring those learnings in.

It is wanting to make sure that we keep the commercial pressure on the brand as we integrate the founders are involved, but we have 100% of this company, and we will execute on this within the Molson umbrella. And then to your point of production and other opportunities, I mean, we will obviously look at all of those pieces as we think through integration. For us, job 1 has always been sure we can keep the commercial pressure and the focus on the business going forward.

Our next question comes from Bill Kirk with ROTH Capital Partners.

My question is on fuel prices and maybe their impact on consumption. NBWA recently shared some regression analysis work that they had done that showed industry volume trends, actually improved when fuel prices went up. I guess the logic would be to leave the on-premise and the 2 beers there, and you trade it for 6 pack at home, I guess. I was a little surprised by this analysis. So I guess the question is, do you see a relationship where higher fuel prices result in a volume benefit?

Thanks for that question. I'm not exactly sure on the NPWA analysis. But I think the way we think about this is, obviously, fuel prices have a couple of correlations with consumers. One is obviously expendable income watch and be careful about how much money goes in there versus 2 is channels, right? I mean if you think about beer and one of our biggest channels in convenience stores and making sure consumers have that correlation when they are. And pack size, right, is how -- when there is a pressure.

So I think to answer your specific question, I'm not sure I'm going to say that increased fuel prices increases volume. That's -- but I do think it's something we watch very carefully, right, we watch it carefully in the context of pack size, singles versus small packs, we watch carefully with respect to, again, channel, as I mentioned, and making sure we have the right offering in our channels across the portfolio. And then obviously, what it carefully in the context of consumer sentiment, right? So yes, I think that's how I would think about it in the context of our business.

The next question comes from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

Great. Rahul, I'd like to double-click on Miller Lite. Iconic brand, great liquid but it continues to bleed. And I know you talked about some regional, I guess, competitive issues and that you have a plan for that. But can you tell us what you think a reasonable outcome for that brand is over the next 1 to 2 years? I mean, can it get to stable volumes or hold share? And I do realize that the segment that it's in is challenged. And so I guess the bigger question is, apart from what's a reasonable goal and time horizon is can you do this with just kind of tactical moves or do you need to fundamentally rethink or refresh the brand proposition?

Yes, Rob, I know that's -- there's a lot of questions there. So probably maybe a couple of comments. So if you think about Miller Lite, obviously, first, let me answer your question of what's our goals and long-term ambition. Obviously, we want to get the brands all back to growth. But the first thing we need to do is make sure we can get our share stable, right? I mean that's, I would say, the short- and medium-term goal that we talked about even in February is to get our big brands shared in a healthier place.

If you break Miller Lite's current challenge, I mean, the Great Lakes area continues to be where we need to make sure we are making progress. So it is something we are actioning. Your question of the proposition and the thinking around it, I mean we feel good about the campaign and the plans we have right now with Miller Lite, right? I mean this resonates with our consumers. It resonates with our distributors. I think our plans in the summer with Americas 250th and Miller Lite that plays both into the taste angle, but also the Americana angle. We feel pretty good about.

So I do think -- we do think that it is something we need to just work through, call it, region by region and just make sure we can execute against it. But then having the right plans to get our share, I would say, in a healthy employee. I think that's the best way to think about our focus on this going forward.

That concludes our question-and-answer period. You may now disconnect.

All right. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference here in New York City. My name is Peter Grom, I'm the U.S. Consumer Staples Analyst here at UBS, and we are very excited to have joining us Rahul Goyal, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer from Molson Beverage or Molson Coors Beverage Company this morning. So clearly, beverage alcohol has been under pressure from the top and bottom line perspective over the last several years. And several weeks ago, both Rahul and Tracey outlined the Horizon 2030 strategy as the company looks to navigate this challenging backdrop and return to more consistent growth.

In terms of format for today, I have a series of questions that I plan to run through with Rahul and Tracey during the 45 minutes we have here. But before we start, I'm required to read a legal disclaimer. As a research analyst, I'm required to provide certain disclosures relating to the nature of my own relationship and that of UBS with any company on which I express a view on this call today. These disclosures are available at www.ubs.com disclosures. Alternatively, please reach out to me. I can provide them to you after this webcast.

So with that, why don't we get started? Rahul, Tracey, thank you so much for joining us.

Thanks for having us, Peter.

So I wanted to start with Horizon 2030. And you outlined a number of different objectives from a top line perspective or a profit perspective that's going to allow the company to achieve the medium-term targets in the next several years. And I want to dive more specifically into some of those buckets. But I guess my question is, what's really different? You talked about investing differently, executing differently. What is changing within the organization? And what drives the confidence that these changes will generate more consistent top and bottom line growth?

Yes. So that's, I would say, a fair question. So if you -- I'd break it up into a couple of pieces. So first is the portfolio, right? So what is different? We've always talked about Coors, and Coors Light, Miller Lite, Canadian et cetera. So probably consistent to what we have said previously. There's a few things in that it's different, right? We've talked about Miller Extra Light, which is, again, a lower strength ABV. So again, a few different choices, but core, we've talked about consistently.

The value segment is different, right? We've not talked about that previously. And I say that in the context of the outside world and also for us as a business. So from the outside world, everybody knows about the K-shaped economy, but there is consumers looking for value products at the right price point, but also with brands that matter, that resonate with them, right? So I would say, again, internally, this is a big part of our business. If you just look at the volume we have in just the value segment, we'll be the fourth or fifth largest company, the beer company in the United States. So it is -- that part, I would say, is different and feels different, right?

Again, we're not trying to find a way to grow that part of our portfolio. We just need to make sure we take care of it and it doesn't decline as fast as it has been. Above premium beer, I would say, pretty consistent the way we have talked about previously. So probably not as different, Peter. But -- and then beyond beer, not different in the context of the ambition around beverage and beyond beer, but probably the levers we're going to use to deploy capital, right, our thinking on capital allocation to really scale there. So that I would call out in the portfolio. Probably the biggest things that are different for us internally is how we execute, right? Because we are in a category that is -- I mean, everybody knows where the category is.

Our commercial execution has to be closest to where our consumers and customers are. And what does that mean, right? We obviously are in multiple countries, but beer is sold very locally. And when I say locally, I mean state-specific or even city specific. And that's the changes we are making. We're making sure that our teams are accountable top and bottom line as close to the customer as possible. The simplest way I look at it is we spend a bunch of money on marketing. Is the marketing doing what it's supposed to do in those particular markets, right? Is the marketing spend or the people resources we have delivering the outcomes we want in particular geographies. If you look at our share and you break it down in different parts of the country, how Miller Lite needs to react and behave is different in the Great Lakes because we are the biggest share platform in the Great Lakes.

There, we are defending share versus if you look at Miller Lite in the Northeast of this country, there we have to gain share because Miller Lite historically has been more of the brand that needs to gain share. So execution closest to the customer is what is going to be different. That means changing how we plan our dollars, that means how we execute on our pricing, promotion, activation, any of those activities and also the incentives, right? How do we make sure our teams and our organizations are driven with their incentives closest to the customer. The other pieces I would call out is obviously our execution on capabilities, right? We want to make sure we can leverage and improve on the platform we are. We are in the best profit pools of the world.

We have a system, a platform that can deliver and execute in those profit pools brilliantly. How do we make sure our capabilities are top notch on that? So continue to build out our capabilities, investment in that. If you look at the other ones, obviously, championing beer and people and culture are important and different. Internally, it feels differently different as we think about the concept of ownership, making sure we can take risks and execute against it. And then I would call out, obviously, the cost program was due for us in a way of making sure we are disciplined around cost, not just to navigate what we are doing today. Historically, we've been a pretty disciplined company around cost, but obviously, we are navigating through a pretty tough external context. And then capital allocation is different. So if you look at the plan, I mean those were hopefully the big areas that I would say are different than what our plan was previously.

That's helpful. And I guess I want to start with the portfolio and kind of the 4 different buckets that you kind of outlined. Maybe just give us some historical performance within these buckets, where you see the biggest opportunity? And I guess, ultimately, what success would look like? And I guess I was going to start with the Coors. Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet. It's been a unique couple of years for those brands. But curious kind of where you see the biggest opportunity looking ahead. Is it really about that local execution that you were just mentioning?

Yes. If you look at our core, if you just break it up just on core, we obviously gained a lot of share in 2023. And in core, we have kept, I think, about 70% of that share still, right? So our core has been healthy and obviously, it moves a little bit quarter-by-quarter. But overall Coors Light, Coors Banquet, Miller Lite has been healthy. So that's something we got to keep focused on. Obviously, it is the biggest part of our portfolio. Coors and Coors Light, Coors Banquet, Coors Light, I would say, has been much more healthier. This year, Miller Lite is where we need to do work, and that's where the local execution comes in.

And then the other things, we will put a little bit of a few markers for the long term is things like Extra Light, right? There is a consumer that's looking for lower strength ABV. We have a product. It's a long game, but we want to make sure we can leverage our brands into that. So yes, to your question around core, it is about the portfolio, but then it is about execution within the core. The only other add point I would call out here is obviously the type of marketing we do and the campaigns and the thinking around the brands, right? So you saw that with Banquet where the brand resonates with consumers because it goes back to what it means. And that's what we leaned in with the new campaign with Christopher Walken with Miller Lite, right? It is around sociability. It is around beer occasions. It's around bringing people together. So I would say the creative and the thinking on the branding on the marketing is obviously going to be an important aspect of it, too.

Makes sense. And I guess one of the pivots, if you will, or something that seems a bit different than what we've observed in the past is just kind of this focus on value, right? Clearly, still a very large segment, but it really hasn't been touched on to the same degree as it has been since you've kind of taken over as CEO. So can you maybe just talk about this pivot? Is this simply a reaction to the current environment we're in? Or do you think this is -- or is this really an underappreciated opportunity?

Yes. No, that's a great point. And I would say it's in 2 ways. So first is from the outside in, right? If you look at consumers, they have an academic debate about K-shaped and people's economic health, but consumers are looking for value at different price points. And but they still want brands that matter. They still want brands that resonate with them in their lifestyle, right? And I would call out things like High Life, Miller High Life and what it means and how it resonates. So there is a consumer that's looking for value. So that is definitely an outside-in view.

I would say it is obviously be more stock in the last 1 year. But it is something that is going to stay with us for a while, right, whether we get through this initial sense of volatility, but that K-shape is not going anywhere soon. So we got to be making sure we have that proposition. Two, it is absolutely relevant for our business. And it's relevant for our distributors business, right? If you just quantify that part of our portfolio, if we had nothing else, we probably be a pretty large business in the United States. So we've got to show some love, some affection in terms of the brands. And it doesn't need the same way that we need to do it for Coors Light and Miller Lite. This brand and this part of our portfolio is local.

Keystone is stronger in particular states. High Life is stronger in particular states, Milwaukee's Best, Steel Alloy Reserve (sic) [ Steel Reserve Alloy ] , Hamm's. I mean, there's such a great set of brands we have in this part of the portfolio that are very local, that need different type of actions. And our goal is not to find a way to grow it. That's not what I've laid out as an ambition, right? We just got to slow the decline because that has to be -- it's such a big part of our business. We got to slow the decline, make sure we can meet the consumers where they need, and then it adds to the whole story for our business.

Makes sense. And then maybe thinking the other side of it, premiumization has been ongoing in the industry for some time. It's part of the strategy at Molson Coors. So can you just give us a sense for how some of the key brands in the segment are performing relative to your expectations? What does success look like here several years from now? And I guess, in order to achieve your long-term aspirations, is that possible with the brand portfolio you have today?

Yes. Thank you, Peter. I think that was more of a challenge than a question when you say is it possible. If you look at our above premium portfolio, I mean, we are, I would say, slightly under-indexed in the U.S. But if you look at our progress over the last few years, we have made progress, right? We've grown our portfolio total company about 5 percentage points in terms of above premium in the last 4 or 5 years. I would break up the premiumization initiative for us in 2 buckets. One is beer and one is beyond beer.

In beer, I would say, in places like Canada, in U.K., we've done a decent job, right? Our portfolio is 40-plus percent above premiumized on the back of things like Madri, on the back of things like Heineken in Canada, Madri in Canada. So I think as a portfolio, we've done a good job there. U.S., we are under-indexed. And in the U.S., historically, we've had only Blue Moon as the big brand that we leaned in. And now you have Peroni with onshoring of Peroni. So it is definitely gives us something to work on, right?

Peroni is growing consistently. We control the supply chain now. So it allows us to be invest in it without any other sort of incumbent issues. So I would say beer is definitely something we'll lean on. And then it is beyond beer, right? And in beyond beer, it is around flavors, which is a volatile category, and it is in the pure non-alc. So our goal is to obviously continue the acceleration of our premiumization, above premium portfolio, but it's going to be a mix of beer and beyond beer. I mean I think I shared these numbers. I mean we're getting -- in beyond beer, we're getting up to 10%. And so between that and beer, we have to be meaningful, right? To your point of the math, if you just keep beer core and value, unless the above premium and the premiumization is not big enough and meaningful enough, the math doesn't work. And so I think you're going to see us continue to lean into that.

Yes. And then maybe just to build on beyond beer. We've seen some nice pockets of growth across the industry, but it's been pretty volatile, right? So can you maybe just elaborate more on the strategy here? How do you stay nimble and make sure you're not investing in categories that will be short-lived, if you will? And I guess, where do you see the biggest opportunity for Molson Coors as it relates to beyond beer?

Yes. No, if you look at beyond beer, I'd break it up into, I think, the reference to flavor and pure non-alc. Flavor, it is a volatile category. And we got it right with a couple of our brands initially. We took Topo Chico and we scaled it dramatically big just as a seltzer. And then we took Simply and we scaled it dramatically big as a flavored ABV flavored beverage. But then things moved. The world moved and consumers moved and Topo Chico had -- has been in decline. To your point of this is where agility comes in, right? And I would say Topo Chico is where I would point in the last 3 to 6 months is where we have been able to pivot.

We pivoted from just being a seltzer to a little bit of a higher flavor beverage. We have a high ABV innovation. We have innovation in packaging. And you're starting to see the brand obviously grow share but also volume in a few months. So it is definitely something that you can do, but it is a category that is volatile. Same thing we have work to do on. Simply, and we are doing that. We have a new product now with a 12% ABV in a smaller can, not a big can, smaller can, making sure that we can pivot up our portfolio to meet where the consumer is, especially in the flavor side. And then we have some gaps. I mean the consumer has moved and they're looking for Spirits in RTDs, and we need to make sure we have the right portfolio in there, which is a gap for us.

So flavors, I think, is going to be volatile. And then beyond beer, just non-alc, we've got to be disciplined and execute the places where we can win. And I obviously will talk about Fever-Tree because it is a space where it plays close to alcohol. We know how to execute. It is something that plays in occasions in on-premise, that is close to alcohol. So definitely we can execute. But I'll call out even energy, right? It is energy historically beer companies or beer distribution has been able to build the brand. And we haven't been able to do that in ZOA, and we have more work to do in ZOA, but it is a category that we can win in. It is a category that we can -- we have an ability to win in. And so you'll see us stay disciplined around in non-alc, but in places where we can win, right? Because it is too broad, and we've got to focus on places where we have the capabilities to win.

Makes sense. So why don't we stick with the sales outlook, but just shift the discussion to the broader category. What's happened over the last 12 months? And how you kind of see it evolving from here? Clearly, '25 was a historical challenging year for beer, for beverage alcohol in general, a lot of debate on cyclical versus structural. But as you look back, have you been able to identify or isolate why trends were so challenged last year?

Yes, I would break it down into a couple of pieces. So again, things that I know a lot of people have spoken about. I mean, there was a big cohort of the consumer, the Hispanic consumer that had a different context and in a way we're making different decisions on their purchasing. I would say that is one. And then 2 was just the economic uncertainty, right? I mean I would broadly put it in those 2 buckets of if you want to diagnose what 2025 was. And that played out differently in different parts of the portfolio, right? It played out differently on how consumers were engaging with alcohol, whether they were engaging in on-premise versus off-premise or it was just decisions they were making on how much money they spend on alcohol as a whole.

So I think as probably, Peter, we shared previously is we see that volatility to continue for a little bit, right? I mean we don't think everything is going to be back to the negative 1s and 2s anytime soon. I think that volatility exists in the category. You're seeing that how it plays out in January and February. I mean, 1 month is good, 1 month is bad. So it's something we just have to watch. I go back to for us and our teams, it's about where can we execute, right? We have enough things to focus on, on our side on core. We have things to fix on value. We have opportunities in above premium. So while we obviously watch the category carefully manage through it, we've got enough things to focus on just within our own house.

Makes sense. And I guess on that point, right, so January was good. It sounds like February has kind of been returned to that. So kind of curious, maybe what you're actually seeing? It doesn't feel like the cyclical challenges are shifting. It doesn't feel like the structural headwinds are down there. So just maybe some more comments just in terms of why you think there's been such volatility in January and February. And I guess, any notable differences you're seeing on versus off-premise?

Yes. So I think the first one, I mean, I would generally say a little bit more optimistic this year than last year in terms of category, right? I mean, January, February, if you look at it, a lot of weather, a lot of storms, a lot of shutdowns in particular parts of the country. So I think generally, we're feeling as a company, as a team, a little bit more optimistic coming into this year. If you look at the things that are going to happen in the country this year, I mean there's big events that we're pretty all excited about.

Obviously, we had the Olympics, then we get into March Madness. But then we have the Soccer World Cup or the Football World Cup. We have America's 250th celebration. So I think generally, there's a sense of optimism going into the summer to make sure we are leaning in the right way. So I think that's the category. What was your second part of the question?

No. Have you seen any differences year-to-date on?

On and off. Yes. On and off, I think if you look at on and off, I mean, we haven't seen any big shift between on and off. I mean, the percentage split between on and off has been pretty consistent. I think what has been good is our performance on-premise has been much better than the off-premise, right? Our share gains in on-premise. So that gives us confidence that our brands are resonating well with consumers. We can obviously engage them in a different way. We can build the brands in the right way. But in terms of big shifts between on and off, I haven't seen anything dramatic last year.

And then Tracey, ask you a question here. So your guidance for '26, flat constant currency NSR plus or minus 1%. We just touched on a little bit more optimistic on kind of the category outlook versus the minus 5% we saw in '25. So can you maybe outline specifically what you're assuming from a category perspective and the guidance how you arrived at that target? And then just given the volatility we've been talking about, did you include any additional flexibility versus maybe what you would have done in a normal year?

Yes. So what we have said is we do expect the category to improve, improve from the down 5%. We haven't given specific guidance because it is very volatile, but we do expect it to improve. And then as we look at our medium-term guidance, this year, 2026, we've spoken about a couple of the headwinds, the things that we're cycling. So Midwest premium incentive comp, which didn't pay out last year. So if you take those 2 things into account, we will sort of end up the bottom line sort of flattish.

But in terms of what are we looking at, so we're not expecting big volatility in either up or down. We haven't built that in from a commodities point of view. But we have various plans depending on how the scenarios play out. So obviously, no one was expecting or at least we weren't expecting wars to break out. We don't know what the impact of the gas price is going to be. We know that it will have some impact on the consumer as we've seen in the past and impact on our consumer. So we've got various scenarios that we're planning to. But in order to mitigate some of this volatility, we are putting in plans in place like we've got a cost savings program, which we've announced it's around $450 million of savings over the next 3 years. That's going to come from all parts of our P&L.

So from a COGS point of view, we are looking at -- we've got a number of projects actually that we can put in place, which is going to be driven by procurement. It's going to be driven by some capital investments that we're making, investments that we're making around our capabilities. And then in our breweries, we've got a program called world-class supply chain, which is going to drive efficiencies and effectiveness. And then at the end of 2025, we announced an organizational structuring, which we're going to see some of that flow through in the Americas. And then in EMEA, APAC, we've got plans to grow or expand our margins as well. So there is a lot of volatility that we're seeing at the moment, but we've got various plans that we're laying out depending on how scenarios play out.

Makes sense. And then, Rahul, I wanted to pivot back. You mentioned the World Cup, the 250th anniversary in the U.S. and ultimately, some optimism around what that could bring. So can you maybe just talk about what you expect as it relates to those events? And whether -- have you included any sort of benefit in your guidance?

I mean we've tried to -- I know some of the questions was how do you get from the minus 5 to the minus flats, et cetera. I mean, Tracey talked about some lapping, et cetera. But we want to make sure our brands show up in the right way in this, right? So while for the World Cup, we may not have the sponsorship. I mean, there's a lot of things we can do around those events around -- in the specific cities, right, or how we show up with our brands on premise, how we show up around the -- in the city and where these games are held. And so I think we're pretty excited about that. We're going to be big in terms of TV, also with Coors Light with the World Cup. So again, these are occasions that people want to use to come together, right?

I mean, the simple thing we say internally is we got 8 Super Bowls happening in Houston, right? Sure, it's happening just in Houston or in Texas or in Kansas City or Atlanta, but it is 8 events that you have the opportunity for people that probably are traveling into the country, people are coming together for that particular event. So our brands have the opportunity to show up in a smart way. So that's what I think gives us a little bit of -- again, these occasions are important because, okay, we've talked about occasions. This is not beer and the category is not about people not drinking. It's not about people not engaging with beer. It is the occasions that was the tricky part. And the exciting part this year is we have the opportunity to create those occasions. And we're not creating it on our own. There are occasions where we are facilitating if that makes sense.

That does. That does. Maybe to round out the top line discussion. And going back to CAGNY, you reiterated your medium-term targets of low single-digit revenue growth. Now I get that does include some benefit from M&A, which I want to get to. But what's your level of confidence in delivering on that target if category growth is structurally lower?

Yes. I think if you look at what I said in that was we've been pretty good in terms of creating shareholder value by being disciplined on the bottom line and over the last 5 years, right, our TSR, et cetera. What we, as a management team have said that we know we've got to get our business back into that medium-term algorithm to drive the next chapter for growth, next chapter of shareholder value. And there, we know we have the portfolio we need, right? So the fact that we talked about core and value. We know what the game plan there is, right? Core is about share and managing share and gaining share and value is just protecting. Those are big parts of our portfolio.

So those are under pressure from a category headwind perspective. So it does come down to execution in those parts of the category. It does come down to how we make sure our resources are being deployed in the field, how we make sure our marketing dollars are delivering the outcomes we want. In above premium of premiumization, this is all new for us, right? We just inherently under indexed. So this is, for us, is all new stuff. This is absolute new dollars, right? So it's not just about share in beer, and it's just not about new categories. So this is where we can use the balance sheet in a way to enable us to get some scale. So that combination of both of these things gives us confidence that we can get this business back into the low single-digit top line growth, right?

On the bottom line, as Tracey said, it is a little bit of a volatile external context. We want to get through that phase with discipline. We talked about the cost program. And even since February, when we were in Florida, the Europe business, we've announced all of that publicly now, right? I mean, all the cost savings programs, we're chasing that stuff because we want to make sure we are pretty disciplined about how we manage this business through this period of challenge.

Makes sense. Tracey, I want to pivot to profitability for a second, and you alluded to the Midwest premium. So can you maybe just remind us what's embedded in the guidance as it relates to that, how do you see this playing out? Do the recent events that you were alluding to impact that trajectory. And I guess one of the bigger questions I've gotten from folks is why it's having such an outsized impact on your business in '26 relative to what we've heard from other CPG, other beer companies that have also have outsized can exposure. So is it simply hedging? Or is there another factor driving that?

So look, in terms of what's built into the guidance, we do hedge all commodities. And in the first 12 months, we've got much higher hedges on in place and then it's a little bit lower in the second year and then even lower in the third year. Specifically as it relates to the Midwest premium. We have spoken about how difficult it is to hedge and how expensive it is to hedge. And one of the stats that we have from insights that we can get, for example, trades that are exchange trades that we have line of sight to. For every 1,000 aluminum trades, there's 3 Midwest premium trades.

So that just shows you how difficult it is to hedge. And even when the price drops a little bit and you try and get the hedge in, there's no counterparty to hedge that. So it's difficult, it's expensive. Having said that, though, we do hedge it and we have got hedges on place in place. Just this year, again, the Midwest premium has gone up to another 20%. Not even people talk about gold and not even gold has gone up by over 300% in the last 12 months. So the Midwest premium is a challenge. And we are working on a number of things to try and understand that try and get transparency, et cetera. In terms of confidence in everything else, I mean, we've got a lot of plans in place. As I say, we've planned multiple scenarios.

So we're doing everything we can to mitigate. In terms of what other people are seeing, look, we just feel that this is a big part of our cost. And so we were very transparent, and we have been for a couple of years. I mean, you've heard us speak about the Midwest premium for a number of years. Now it depends on who else you're talking to. They may have different geographies where they are not paying Midwest Premium. I mean, Midwest Premium is specific to the Americas. So if you've got a bigger footprint in Europe, et cetera, you're not paying Midwest Premium. It also depends on your mix, how much is in glass, how much is in cans. And we have seen over a number of years, consumers moving to cans. And so for us, we felt it was necessary to call it out as we have been doing for the last couple of years because it is a big part. It's a big driver of our COGS. So I mean, other than that, I can't speak to other companies.

If you look at our business, I mean, our own business, right? I mean this is an Americas phenomenon. It's a U.S. phenomenon. We're not seeing a Midwest Premium implication in Europe, we're not seeing it in Canada. This is a U.S. phenomena. So I think to your point of -- obviously, we can't comment on other companies' stuff, that based on geography, based on landscape and product portfolio mix, this is a real issue.

Okay. No, that makes sense. And I guess, Tracey, building on that a little bit, but just sticking with the profit outlook, another big headwind was the reset of the incentive comp. But I guess there's just a lot of moving pieces in the base here, right? You're cycling integration, the onetime expense of Fever-Tree. So just in the context of the full year guidance of pretax income being down 15%, 18%. How should investors think about the phasing of that? Is it more pronounced in the first half just because that's when the inflation is building in? Or is it more balanced?

Yes. So Q1, we had the Fever-Tree onetime payments around $32 million last year. So we'll be cycling that. In terms of -- if we look at commodities and the Midwest premium, we really saw the Midwest premium elevated from Q3 and Q4. We did say that the Midwest premium had a $35 million impact on us last year. About $20 million of that was just in Q4. So much more elevated in the back half of the year. In terms of the incentive program, which we did say was one of the headwinds that we're facing this year, we saw most of that. We started to adjust that Q2, Q3 and then into Q4. So a lot of what we will be cycling is happening in the second half of the year, the big things like Midwest premium, like incentives, et cetera.

Okay. And then maybe to round out the discussion on '26. I mean even if I were to back out the Midwest premium incentive comp, the outlook for flat right? It's still nicely below the company's long-term algorithm. I get sales is slightly low as well. But what's driving the weaker performance in '26 even after backing out those dynamics, especially -- and I know we'll get to this, just considering some of the cost savings you've touched on.

Yes. So look, we're looking at 2026 as sort of the base year, and then we're going to grow from there. But we've spoken a little bit about the industry. We're not expecting it to -- we're expecting it to improve, but not yet back to this year to the historical levels of down 2%, down 3%, et cetera. So that's one. We did completely get out of the contract brewing arrangement. So we still had some contract brewing last year, which, again, was very low margin, but still added -- was a benefit to deleverage, et cetera.

So now we'll have -- and it was profitable, but not very profitable, but we're cycling that. So those are some of the challenges that we're facing. And then importantly, we're going to invest behind our business. We're going to invest behind our brands. We have said that we expect to increase our marketing spend this year. And also, we're going to invest behind capabilities and technology and that's going to help not just drive insights and analytics and things like that, but it's going to drive cost savings and efficiencies and be part of this $450 million cost savings program that we've announced. So there's still investment going into our business, which is part of the bottom line.

Makes sense. And I guess what gives you confidence that you can reaccelerate growth to that mid-single-digit range? Is it those -- the benefits from those investments you're alluding to? Is it the category maybe getting less? Just help us understand how we go from where we are this year to kind of getting back to on algorithm.

Yes. Certainly, I think there's a number of things. The category, as we've said, we expect that to improve. We have top line plans. So we've got the pricing that we normally talk about the 1% to 2%. We have got the mix. We are going to be focusing a lot more on the economy, the value side, but we're also going to continue to premiumize. And so brands like Fever-Tree, which is other than our full strength spirits. I mean, Fever-Tree is the highest NSR per hectoliter brand. So we're going to have a full year of that. We're going to continue -- that still has a lot of awareness and a lot of distribution to go. So we're going to focus in the portfolio. And then these cost savings programs, et cetera, is going to help to deliver the bottom line.

Okay. And then so maybe pivoting to the cost savings as part of Horizon 2030. You announced $450 million of cost savings around supply chain, commercial, function areas, EMEA, APAC, which you alluded to. Can you maybe just elaborate on the target? Where do you see the biggest opportunities across these buckets? Is it equally phased? Or should we expect savings to ramp into '27 and '28? And sorry, for the classic sell-side 5-part question. But just the broader philosophy around reinvestment versus letting these savings flow to the bottom line?

Yes. So certainly, if you look at our guidance for this year, I mean, a lot of the savings is going to go into investments and to help mitigate some of the inflation that we see -- that we spoke about from a Midwest premium. I think where we get the biggest benefit is around the COGS line. So with the plans that we've got around procurement, the plans that we've got around world-class supply chain in our breweries, we're going to see that. Now that doesn't all happen this year because we do need to invest in the capabilities to be able to generate the cost savings. But -- so this year is the sort of foundational year.

And then as we look at building off this year, that's when we're going to start seeing the benefits come through from some of these investments that we're making in 2026.

And I think, Peter, I mean, if you look at the -- your question of the intent of pace right? I mean some of these things, we started immediately last quarter, when we started seeing some of the headwinds in Midwest premium, et cetera, I mean, all the Americas work that we did in Q4 plays out in '26. We just announced even since mid-Feb, all the changes in our European business, right, with the reduction with the shutting down some facilities. So I think we recognize -- when I talk about we are in this moment of volatility, right? We are leaning in from being very disciplined about that. Now we also need to make sure that we are setting the business up to get the medium-term growth algorithm, right?

So in terms of cost savings, execution of that, the stuff which we kicked off in the Americas, the stuff we kicked off in Europe in the last few weeks is to get us all into that medium-term algorithm as quickly as we can.

Great. And that makes a ton of sense. So Rahul, ever since you've taken over, M&A has become a much bigger topic of discussion and even looking at some of your capital allocation priorities that you outlined at CAGNY around investing in the business, that now includes M&A. And I think specifically, you're targeting deals that would help top line growth by, call it 1 to 2 points per year. Can you maybe just talk about the strategic and financial criteria for M&A categories that are most attractive to Molson Coors? And then ultimately, just given where leverage is today, would you be willing to do something on the larger side?

So I think I'll take a few and then Tracey can help me in a few of. If you look -- think about the portfolio, right? Again, I go back to your 4-bucket portfolio conversation. I mean the first 2 in beer, we have to do and execute and take care of it. So when we talk about M&A, this is finding the gaps in our portfolio that we need to fill. And it's probably in the beyond beer or maybe above premium beer space. Those are the areas we got to go solve that. In beer, we have a big portfolio. So obviously, we will look at it, but we want to make sure we're being smart about beer brands that fill some gaps that we may not have.

Beyond beer is probably where we do need to look at it. And in beyond beer, I go back to non-alc spaces where -- or flavor spaces where we have the ability to win. So once you start thinking about those categories, then the funnel becomes very small, then it becomes small in terms of the categories you want to work on. And then your second part of the question is which -- what's the criteria? And so we've been very clear, right? We're not trying to chase top line growth just for the sake of top line growth. We want brands and businesses that have good top and bottom line discipline. And for 2 reasons. One, because it is in spaces that is volatile. You can catch a brand in the peak and then for a couple of years, you're just dealing with how to manage it.

So we want to make sure we're being disciplined about both top and bottom line, right? So I think to your point of funnel of the type of categories we want to be in is narrow because that's where we can execute, we can deliver, integrate it well, criteria of figuring out what quality of businesses we want to look at. We want to be disciplined in top and bottom line. And then it is a balancing act of our leverage ratio. And so Tracey, do you want to take that one?

Yes. So our medium, long-term targets for leverage has been to be below 2.5x., and we have achieved that, and we're currently operating under the 2.5x. We feel that, that's a sweet spot for us. We like our investment-grade rating, and we've done a really good job with the balance sheet. So our debt is in pretty good shape. The cost of our debt is in good shape. So that's one -- this was one of the focus areas early on to get our balance sheet strong. But now we've got optionality. So when we talk about M&A, it can be slightly bigger than maybe what we were talking about a couple of years ago. But the other part of the capital allocation, which is really important is to continue to return cash to our shareholders.

And so at CAGNY, we did announce an extension and a larger share buyback program, which is now in total of $4 billion up to the end of 2031. But also, it was really important to us to be able to continue to increase our dividend and to keep that dividend sustainable. And so with the strength of our balance sheet and with a significant amount of free cash flow that we do generate, we do have options. And so when Rahul talks about M&A, yes, I mean, that's going to be a focus and something that's bigger than maybe what we've spoken about before.

And again, it goes back to the objective, right? What is -- why do we believe this is the right algorithm to get our business back. It is to get back to the medium-term growth algorithm. Tracey said, it's to give shareholders value during that journey with the buyback, but recognize we've got to get our portfolio in a place where we can deliver consistent top and bottom line growth. So I think this optionality is what I would say is the best word, right? We've created optionality to execute against whatever comes at us.

Makes sense. And Tracey, one follow-up, I guess, just given how quickly you lean into buybacks with the original authorization, how does the shift in focus around M&A while maintaining the leverage impact the buyback philosophy from here, if at all?

Yes. No. So I mean, look, we took that into account when we gave our medium-term guidance. And again, we generate a significant amount of free cash flow. And so we are able to do both end. We feel that our shares are a compelling investment. And so that's why we increased and extended the share buyback program because we do think it's a good investment, and we'll continue with the cash that we've got. But it doesn't mean that we're not going to do M&A or we can't do one if we do the other.

Okay. And maybe to close it out on a question for both of you. Obviously, it's been a challenging several years for the industry for Molson Coors. But as you look out over the next 12 months, maybe the next several years, what metrics are you going to be focused on to assess whether the strategy is working? And I guess if we were to do this fireside chat next year, years from now, what does success look like?

Yes. So for me, I mean, it's hitting our guidance. It's been able to deliver that and deliver on the commitments around the free cash flow, the share buybacks, the dividends, but then also making sure that we are investing in the business to grow the top line. That will be meeting in that guidance will be important for me.

Yes. And I would say it starts with obviously the medium-term guidance we've laid out, Peter. We got to get our business back into that routine and that rhythm, right? So low, mid and high from an EPS perspective. If you go break that down further, what are we looking at? How are we measuring ourselves internally and just checking that we are moving, right? Share becomes an important element. The category is volatile. So while we obviously look at absolute volume and NSR, share is a key component. Two becomes portfolio transformation. Are we on this journey of portfolio transformation, right, a year from now, 2 years from now? Are we -- have we moved the needle in our premiumization? Have we moved the needle in beyond cost savings, the things we've announced are we delivering on that?

And is it touching the margin factor, right? Your question of how much are you reinvesting, how much you dropping to the bottom line. All of that needs to show up in margin, right? So that becomes a key important criteria. So I think those become the key elements. Obviously, the buyback and dividend is the journey we are with our shareholders. If you look at our dividend, I mean, we did increase it, but we did it in a way to create flexibility for ourselves. So I would say those are the probably the metrics below the guidance that I think we can judge ourselves and then we want to continue that dialogue with the investment community.

Great. Well, we are out of time. Rahul, Tracey, on behalf of UBS, everyone in the room, those listening online, thank you so much for being here today. Super helpful as always. And we wish you nothing but the best of luck moving forward.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Good evening, everyone. It's a pleasure to welcome Molson Coors back to CAGNY this year. Joining us today, we have President and CEO, Rahul Goyal; and CFO, Tracey Joubert. Also, please join me in thanking them for their sponsorship of the beverage reception immediately following their presentation, which will be outside these stairs -- right outside the stairs. Thank you so much for that.

Now it's an exciting time for Molson Coors as the company has made progress on its transformation journey, having changed over the course of a few years, how it invests, how it markets and how it operates to return the company back to growth. Having completed its revitalization plan, the company is now into the next leg of its journey, which is to accelerate growth as well as taking complexity out of their system, allowing them to deliver sustainable top and bottom line growth.

So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Rahul to hear more about their efforts. Thanks.

Thank you, Bonnie. Thanks for the introduction, and good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for being here.

Before I get started, our lawyers said I got to read every single word on this slide. I think they were doing a new guy joke on me. So the only thing I'm going to say is our discussions today include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities law. So please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in our presentation materials for more information.

So I am excited. I'm excited to be here to share an update about our business. I'm excited about sharing our new plans and our new strategy going forward. After 25 years in the company, I get the honor of defining the next chapter for Molson Coors, a company that has a 240-year-old legacy in this country.

For those who have followed us and those who are new to our company, we are a top 5 global brewer. We're in about 80 countries. We have about 16,000 people with one purpose to unite people to celebrate all of life's moment. But more importantly, we're in some of the most exciting and largest profit pools of the world. And we've made progress. We've made progress around our core brands in most of our markets. We've kept share that we gained in the United States in 2023. We have about -- we've kept about 70% of that share that we gained in '23 with our core brands. We've been on our journey for premiumization and portfolio transformation, and we've increased that about 5 percentage points. And we are on the early innings of our Beyond Beer beverage strategy. And we are approaching about 10% of our revenue based on Beyond Beer and a lot more runway in front of us. And we've done that on the back of brands like Topo Chico Hard and Fever-Tree.

Along with that, we have strengthened our balance sheet. Our debt is lower than what we started with, and our leverage ratio is in a much healthy place. And we've been consistent in terms of delivering cash back to our shareholders, whether it's through a consistent increase in our dividend or by executing about 70% of our buyback program in just 9 quarters, which was a $2 billion program over 5 years.

So we know we have delivered shareholder value, but we do know that the next chapter for creating shareholder value is going to be on the back of consistent, scalable and repeatable top and bottom line growth. And that's what the new plan is.

Well, before I talk about the new plan, I want to address the 2026 guidance. It's no secret that our industry is facing significant headwinds. 2025 saw material industry declines, and that was cyclically deviations from what the historical trends were. And that uncertainty remains for us. So if you go deeper into the bottom line guidance we just shared, there are 2 factors that are impacting our business right now. One is cost inflation through the increases in the Midwest premium and aluminum pricing. And two is just lapping about lapping of a onetime incentive comp because we didn't achieve anything in 2025.

Now we're navigating this period of uncertainty and volatility with discipline. We took immediate action in Q4 on focusing on costs. We're taking the right actions in pricing, making sure our brands by region are being competitive. And frankly speaking, we're looking at everything around the Midwest premium.

Along with that, we want to make sure we are investing in our business, investing in smart ways, getting our business back to growth. And this means investing in our brands, in our capabilities and in technology. We will navigate this period of volatility being diligent and taking the hard decisions, but we want to make sure we set our business up right for growth in the future.

And so what does all this mean, right? So now this is what I'll leave you with. We have a strong foundation. We have brands that have scale. We have a historical track record of delivering cash -- of creating cash generation. We are doing a reset in 2026 just to navigate this moment of volatility and uncertainty to get our business back. And I'm excited to talk about the next chapter of figuring out how to grow our business, both top and bottom line going forward in the medium term.

So it all starts with our new plan, Horizon 2030. Folks, this is not just a new plan on a page. It is a plan and a blueprint of how we get our business back to growth. It is about rewiring our business in a world of constant change. It is about taking bold opportunities and reacting on that quickly. And it is about -- and it means spending more time in the market where our consumers are and where our customers operate. That's what's going to get us back to growth. And it starts with our portfolio. So let's talk about our portfolio.

Now each segment has a role to play and to make sure that we as a business can reach our full potential. But we are making different choices. We are investing differently, and we are executing differently of our brands in the markets. And across these portfolio pillars, we feel we have the plans to grow share, revenue and profits for our total business. And I want to take you a little deeper on that.

But then look at the second part of our plan, and this is what we're doing to operate differently. And this is what I call rewiring our business differently. We're going to put commercial execution as closest to customers and consumers. We're going to modernize our capabilities to make sure we're driving efficiency and value. And then we are going to champion beer and beer occasions, right? In this industry where the category is under challenge, we're going to champion beer. And we're going to evolve our culture to drive ownership amongst our people.

Now all of this has to be supported by being disciplined on our cost savings and having a clear dynamic approach to capital allocation. So we're going to go deeper into all of these 3 areas, right? Let's just start with our portfolio. This is what we do. This is our bedrock. It spans beer and Beyond Beer to reach consumers where they are. And it's based on the thesis that all segments matter. But within that, we are making clear choices. We have to strengthen our big brands, the core and value segments, while we transform our above premium and Beyond Beer strategy.

So let's talk about the core. And you probably know this, loyal core beer drinkers represents the vast majority of all beer volume. But what you probably don't know is that this group has the strongest loyalty with premium lights, and we have the brands to compete there. And we have the opportunity to continue to strengthen our brands with this core consumer and gain more share ahead of the category. So how are we going to do this? It does mean investment in our brands and breakthrough marketing. And you saw -- you probably saw some of this in the NFL and leading up to the Olympics with the Miller Lite campaign. It talks about real-life connections. It talks about real-life occasions and with the perfect spokesman and Christopher Walken that spans generations. And you can expect us to come forward with more work like that for Coors Light.

We're going to continue the journey on Coors Banquet and leaning into that brand as we grow that both volume and share. And with Molson Canadian, where we're gaining both volume and share in Canada. In this subcategory, we are also identifying new opportunities like the lower strength beer. We're expanding Miller Extra Lite, which is about a 2.8% ABV brand in key markets and regions. These brands have the scale. They have the trust of millions of our consumers, and they have the right to win with our core consumers and get our share of the category.

Now let's talk about the part of the portfolio that we probably haven't spoken about in a long time, which is the value segment. We are elevating that because in a T-shaped economy today, the value consumer is feeling the pressure, and they are looking for options within their budget. And frankly speaking, we have the scale. Just for context, if we just think about our value segment, we're probably the fifth -- we are the fifth largest beer company in the country. So this category matters. This is not about just being defensive. This is how do we use that and make sure we're leaning in with -- for the consumers that are looking for this option.

But we're going to increase the focus on value in a very selective way. We're going to have selective investment in selective markets and with very pointed innovation. We're going to expand brands like Miller High Life Light across a few more states. We have some new innovation coming with Keystone, Keystone Apple in the summer, which is, again, very directed to this subsegment. Our value portfolio has a strong reach. We have deep consumer loyalty, and this is the way to win for us, but even for our distributors.

Now as we think about value, premiumization is not going anywhere. And we have the opportunity to just get some more runway there. If you look at our business, we're pretty strong in premiumization in Canada and in the U.K. But in the U.S., we are underrepresented. And therefore, we just have a new opportunity to keep leaning into that. Things like Peroni, and you probably saw that in the Olympics, again, leaning into the brand with on-premise brand ambassadors or the work we already have done in Madri in the U.K. and continue to grow in the U.K., but also expand that brand across Europe and Canada. And while Blue Moon Belgian White is still work in progress, the Blue Moon non-alc brand is growing 25% is now -- and is now probably the #2 non-alc craft brand in the country.

Now the other side of premiumization is Beyond Beer. I talked about being in the most exciting profit pools, and this is where the consumer needs are evolving. And we're going to continue to -- on our total beverage journey to make sure that our brands meet the consumers and meet them in more moments. And we're proud of the progress we've made. And if you think about the Beyond Beer strategy, you have first is flavor. And this category has been volatile. And there, we need to be agile, right? We had some great success initially, but then we got to figure out a way to pivot, and we did with Topo Chico. We pivoted from being a hard seltzer brand now to a full flavor beverage with higher ABV innovation and new different packaging for more occasions. And we've changed the trajectory of this brand. We have consensual dollars and share trend performance improvements in all of quarters of 2025.

And with Fever-Tree, we're just getting started. We just finished the transition last year. We're getting it into our network, and we have an excited distributor network. We have an excited retail network, and we have an excited team to get really behind it. There's a few brands that you can get the whole trifecta working, and we believe we have the opportunity to do that with Fever-Tree.

And in this space, we have the other opportunity of deploying M&A dollars in a very disciplined way to make sure we are augmenting and filling gaps in our portfolio. And I know Tracey is going to talk a little bit more about that in the future.

So hopefully, that gives you a sense of the clear choices we are making in our portfolio. But let's talk about how are we going to make this happen. And this is where folks we are executing a big change within the organization because how we execute, how we make sure we revy our business is super important in this business, in this category. And it starts by putting our customer and consumer at the heart of everything we do.

Folks talk about beer being a global business. We talk about beer being a national business. But actually, beer is a very, very local business. And we need to make sure we're putting the P&L accountability at the level close to the customer. That's where pricing decisions, promotions, assortment, investment, that's where those decisions are being made. And that's what we need to unlock for our teams. We've got to unlock clear accountability that drives outcomes. We've got to make sure we're taking decisions with precision where we can change tactics, move spend across the actions that are working for our total portfolio in particular markets. And we need to do it with speed, where decisions are done in days, not weeks, not months and definitely not quarters. And this is not just an academic principle. This is how we want to make sure our planning process and our execution model changes. And we have already started that journey in Q4 and going into '26 with our distributors.

The next part of our plan is we talk about capabilities. And I talk about us having -- being in the largest profit pools. But we also have the largest platforms in these profit pools, where basically we execute across the entire market. And so we will keep investing in our capabilities, investing in capabilities that drive efficiency and value to the bottom line. This is in the areas of sales and marketing, where we're going to put capabilities in AI and analytics to make sure our sales teams are front forward-looking and not [indiscernible] in the back. And when I talk about AI, this is not about using in marketing just to create new brands and assets. We're obviously going to do that and drive efficiency, but how do we literally use it to make investment decisions.

And then the third element of our capabilities is our investment in our ERP and our technology to augment and automate areas in our supply chain to drive value and to optimize business processes. And as we think about our internal business, we have to keep a lens externally. And that involves championing beer.

We talk about the category doing declining, et cetera. And one of the things I talked to our distributor network is none of us should accept a declining category. That should not be okay. We must find a way to get this category healthy again, and we need to do it together as an industry. This is not about us. We have the humility to realize that this is one company can't change it, but we need to lean in to make sure we can build beer relevance back. We need to make sure we can bring people back into the occasions where beer fits. And so we've got to lean in this, and we're going to do our part, right? We're going to do our part in marketing on how we talk about Miller Lite. You saw that, but also a new campaign we had just over the holidays, which was just about just bring the beer. This campaign is designed to put beer back on the shopping list. It's to put it in the center of social moments driving category relevance, right?

Again, this is not -- what's the word I want to use? This is not an elusive idea. I mean when we think about our sales teams, we have about 22% market share in the country. The category captains for 60% of our retailers. So how do we really lead with the category front focus?

And then the fourth pillar is around building a culture of ownership. We have 16,000 people that are passionate about our business, are passionate about our brands. But we need to change how we operate in this moment. And that's where I'm asking them to lean in 2 of our key values, being bold and decisive and take accountability. This is designed to empower our teams to move with urgency, to move with pace and drive ownership within the business. And this matches the complexity we have from an outside world perspective.

So hopefully, you see that. And then you see, okay, how do you know we're going to make progress? What are the key metrics? We should be seeing market share improvements in our key markets. We have to continue the acceleration of our portfolio transformation across all our portfolio. And the investment we're making in our capabilities and cost savings need to show margin improvement. And while we're doing this, we're going to be disciplined about returning cash to shareholders.

We are setting 2026 with clarity and transparency, but we are rewiring our business and our operating model for execution. We're investing in brands and our capabilities, but we are being very deliberate on how we do that. And we're going to fund our growth with discipline. And there's 2 key elements of the plan that I'm going to have Tracey come over and talk about, which is making sure we're disciplined about cost savings and having a clear and dynamic approach to capital allocation.

So with that, Tracey?

Thank you, Rahul. Hello, everyone. Good to be back here. Look, as Rahul highlighted, we have a compelling strategy. We're really focused on discrete actions that will support our medium-term growth algorithm. So I want to give a little bit more color on our financial discipline and the capital allocation priorities that Rahul mentioned. And I'll highlight how they support our ability to execute against our strategy.

So our ability to drive strategy starts with a strong cash generation. We feel that we have compelling cash conversion, and we continue to be a very cash-generative business. Now we delivered over $1.1 billion in 2025. And as we announced earlier with our release earlier this afternoon or earlier this evening, we expect to deliver a similar amount in 2026. Now we plan to build on this very strong base through profitable growth and also a new cost savings program. So over the past 5 years, we have delivered over $1 in free cash flow for every dollar of underlying earnings. And we have amongst the highest free cash flow yields in all of CPG. Our solid cash generation has significantly strengthened our balance sheet. Now moving forward, it should enable us to invest in ways that we believe will drive value for our shareholders.

So let me take you through a few of the details around our new cost savings program, which we believe supports both our medium-term algorithm and also strong cash generation. So to help fuel our strategy, we are announcing a 3-year cost savings program targeting up to $450 million with savings beginning in 2026. The program anticipates savings across both our business units, and it will also come through multiple lines in our P&L.

Now in cost of goods sold, we have a very strong pipeline of plans and projects. This is enabled by procurement, the investments that we make in capital and productivity and efficiency improvements that are going to get delivered through our world-class supply chain program.

Now in Americas G&A, we've already unlocked meaningful savings by implementing our new structure at the end of 2025. And as you heard from Rahul, we expect to deliver further savings in M&A enabled by technology and new capabilities that we'll be investing in.

In EMEA, APAC, we have plans that are designed to expand operating margin and also improve profitability in that business unit. And this will be done through implementing new technologies, evaluating supply chain opportunities and also portfolio optimization. Now these savings are intended to be used to mitigate the impact of inflation and also will allow the right levels of investment to fuel our business for growth.

So let's talk about how we're thinking about deploying our capital to execute that strategy. Now our first priority is to invest in our business to drive long-term sustainable growth through capital projects and new capabilities, investing behind our brands and using our financial flexibility to fund M&A. From a capital standpoint, we are rebasing our medium-term CapEx expectations, and we now expect to spend approximately $650 million a year. Now this level should allow us to continue to invest in margin-enhancing cost savings projects and also make investments in technology to drive efficiencies and increase our capabilities. And we target double-digit returns on our cost savings programs, and we have delivered against that goal over the last few years with programs, including our variety packaging that we -- the capabilities we built in Fort Worth, adding shelter capability in Canada and also the domestic production of Peroni in the U.S.

And to grow our business, our aim is to look to invest in M&A to drive meaningful portfolio transformation. Now we would target deals that would add around 1% to 2% NSR annually to the enterprise, but that are also bottom line accretive. To contextualize, these could be in the range of about $200 million to $350 million and are expected to be funded from cash from operations. Now these targets must be scalable. They must fill white spaces, and they also must be in areas where we believe we have the right to win.

Second, we remain committed to maintaining a leverage ratio below 2.5x. At the time of the 2016 MillerCoors acquisition, our net debt was $15.4 billion and our leverage -- sorry, $11.5 billion, and our leverage ratio was 4.8x. And by the end of the year in 2025, our net debt was $5.4 billion and our leverage ratio was 2.3x, so reducing both by more than half. And we've continued to hold the highest credit rating that we've had since 2016.

Now that brings me to our third capital allocation priority. Molson Coors has a long track record of paying cash dividends to its shareholders, and it remains our intention to sustainably increase our dividend just as we have done for the last 5 years. We also feel that we've made tremendous progress against our $2 billion share buyback program, which is over 5 years. We announced that back in October of 2023. And as Rahul said, through just 9 months, we've executed 72% of that authorization, tracking to complete the $2 billion well ahead of the schedule.

Now given what we view as a compelling valuation for our stock, our Board has approved an increase to the amount and extended the duration of our existing share repurchase program. So this increases the initial authorization from up to $2 billion to an aggregate authorization of up to $4 billion, and that's inclusive of the approximately $1.4 billion that we've already spent up until the end of 2025. And that plan will now run through December 31, 2031. Now we believe that this should not only help to drive earnings power, but it also demonstrates our confidence in our business, our confidence in our strategy and our confidence in our medium-term growth algorithm.

So with that, we look forward to taking your questions, and we will come back up, and we'll ask Greg to maybe just manage the questions for us.

I can repeat the question, Rahul.

[indiscernible] guiding under the impact on gross margin, certainly aware of Midwest premium, the inflation. But just how and why is that going to be such a drag on your business in '26? Kind of talk through that on the gross margin level. And then maybe help frame for us with the plan you laid out the marketing spend that you're expecting.

Yes. So I'll take it and Tracey, you can add. So if you look at the Midwest premium and aluminum pricing, right? I mean, I think we shared an estimate last year of what we think the exposure is. And if you look at this year, that was in somewhere in the range of $40 million to $45 million range. We have an incremental headwind of about $125 million this year in 2026. And this is -- when Midwest premium goes up 300%, there's not immediate actions you can take to action that, right? Obviously, we took all the actions we could in terms of cost savings in the Americas. So the Midwest premium is the biggest part of our COGS inflation. If you look at our 2025 results and look at COGS inflation, we have initiatives and we have the programs to make sure that we're managing through it. We're trying to manage $125 million increases. So you're going to see that in the way it shows up in gross margin in -- through the Midwest premium. The onetime incentive comp is just -- it's a lapping issue from -- and so that's more on the G&A.

And then the marketing and capabilities investment, I would say the simplest way to think about it is we know we can get this business back to our medium-term growth algorithm, right, the mid-single digit. And we just want to make sure we're building our brands and supporting our brands in a pretty competitive context of the category being where the category is. So I think that's how I'd break it down, Bonnie, is the Midwest premium being the big part in COGS and then the other 2 pieces are of this. Anything else?

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas. Rahul, maybe with the longer-term guidance, I suspect we'll probably be some surprise about the decision to maintain it just given the challenges in the alcohol industry broadly, where we've seen domestic beer volumes decline, not just the past 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, going back '15 and they've been down low single digits and in certain cases in your portfolio, they've been even more challenged than that and '25 is even more dire. So I think maybe a little bit more on that, like what gives you confidence with what you're doing in terms of execution that things are going to get better because the data points just seem to be mounting against the industry in terms of younger consumers moving away and it's going to take the industry collectively. But even more than that, it's probably moving into new areas.

Lastly, with your answer, I think it's topical. We've seen a number of food companies from PepsiCo to [ Mills ] to Kraft Heinz invest in price as part of the solution to stimulate volumes in industry where volumes are challenged. Does that come into your thinking at all as part of the solution to stimulate volumes?

Yes. So let me try to address the 2 or 3 parts of the question, right? So first is how do we get our business back to top line growth. If you look at our share losses in even in the recent past over the last few years, we've done a decent job on making sure core share is there. We've lost a little bit, but not in a big way. Our challenge has been in some other parts of our portfolio, right? That's why you see us elevating on the value segment. Because if you look at the majority of our share losses, a big part of our share losses has been the value and flavor and some of those pieces. So we need to make sure that our portfolio -- when we talk about strengthening the core and the value, it just means making sure we can keep ground on our share, right? So make sure we're keeping share and gaining share in that space.

What the category does, we'll see how -- what the category does, but right, that's our share. Then it does become a question of mix. Can we transform the portfolio fast enough to make sure that we can handle the potential declines in the core piece. Your question -- so the 3 pieces that we think about as we think about driving our top line revenue is obviously volume, but it's price and mix. And I think those are the 2 levers that gives us confidence that we can get this business back.

Your question on pricing, we definitely look at pricing by brand and by region, but we also want to make sure we're competitive. And that's why you see us leaning in, in the value segment, right? We have a portfolio which meets the consumer needs at the right price points at the right budget levels they have. Usually, in beer, people don't leave their brands, right? In core, they're usually looking for different price packs. They're looking for different channels. So if you look at what's happening in our business, we got singles doing really well, and you've got big packs doing really well.

So with our core business, core brands, we need to make sure we're leaning in that space. But the value piece is where we need to make sure we can get some support on the volume piece. So I think between price mix and the transformation on Beyond Beer, that's where we have confidence we can get our business back to low single-digit growth, right? I mean this is -- it's a low base in that regard. And in terms of your pricing decision, it's making sure we can use all levers of our portfolio to really get after the volume play.

Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley. You mentioned that the midterm that the cost savings of $450 million would offset inflation and allow for reinvestment. Hoping you could expand upon the reinvestment side a little bit. Can you give us any context for what kind of quantum you're expecting in terms of reinvestment for 2026 and the midterm, whether it's marketing, technology, other capabilities, how to think about that? And then in terms of the -- one for Tracey, in terms of the midterm outlook, mid-single digit on pretax and then high single digit on EPS. If you're going to be spending more or investing more on M&A going to be funded from cash from operations, the cash has to come from somewhere shouldn't there be less of a contribution from buybacks than you've had historically or [indiscernible]?

Thank you. I'll let you have the buyback one, Tracey. But let me make sure I address the two questions you have. First is on the cost savings and then the investment profile, right? So if you look at our cost savings, there are three broad buckets. It's obviously the work we need to do in the Americas, and we took all those hard decisions in quarter 4. So making sure we can take the actions in optimizing our teams, how we execute, making sure we have the right resources and pressure on the front end of the organization versus internally. On supply chain, we're going to keep looking at opportunities on optimizing and driving savings, right? So other than the onetime issues that we have with Midwest Premium and [indiscernible], our teams do a great job of making sure we match and drive savings to -- for any COGS inflation.

And then EMEA, APAC is where the opportunity lies. I mean that business has done a good job in terms of growth, but we have the opportunity to improve our margins there. So that's where we try to unpack all the areas of our business to make sure we can lean on the savings side.

If you think about our investment, the way I'd leave this with this is we're not looking to step up investment in a significant way. We want to make sure that our brands are competitive. We want to make sure we are putting the right pressure against our brands across all these segments. When I talk about elevating the value segment, this is not about big investment in the value segment. This is about pointed investment in brands, in particular geographies in terms of winning. We do have investments in our capabilities around systems and infrastructure. And again, both to drive value and efficiency to the bottom line. So we judge that and carefully make sure we are investing in the right places, but we talked about the ERP implementation, but all of that investment needs to drive some outcome. And that's what I mean when I talk about efficiency and value, Eric.

So there's not a -- I would say, not a significant step-up in terms of investment that we're looking for. We feel our brands are well supported. And some of it is to manage the challenges we have and the headwinds we have. But that's the cost savings and then making sure we invested right. And Tracey, do you want to take the...

Yes. So I think, look, we're really proud of the work that we've done on our balance sheet, going from a leverage ratio of 4.8x to 2.5x. It has given us a lot of optionality. So we have done things like we're reducing our medium-term CapEx spend. If you recall, in previous years, it was in the range of $750 million, plus or minus. We've reduced that to $650 million. We also believe that we have opportunities in working capital, and so we'll continue to focus on that. And then as we grow the top line and expand our margins through some of the efficiencies and the capabilities that we're building, that's obviously going to contribute to the bottom line. But we are a very cash-generative business. We have delivered on our free cash flow. And with our new share repurchase program, it does extend out to [indiscernible]. And we will make the right decisions around how much and when to buy shares.

But as you've said, we've done a really good job with that. I mean we're already 72% of the way in our previous share buyback program. So it gives us confidence that we're able to, with our strong balance sheet, do all of those things. Number one, invest in the business to drive long-term sustainable growth. We're going to be very disciplined around the investments, for example, the capital. And with that, we're able to sustainably increase the dividend and continue the buyback program.

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the change, the fundamental change that you're making in terms of how the organization is run, driving accountability more local, pricing decisions more local. So sort of number one, how -- where did the idea or where did the change come from? And two, can you talk a little bit about execution of that? How exactly does that get executed? How do you deal with national accounts how you keep coordinated and not trip over yourself in certain areas and how local. I mean, rough idea, just how does this get [indiscernible]?

Yes. No, I think, Robert, that's a great question. Again, this is something that is important. When I've got in the role, we made some changes in our leadership team, and it was to drive to best outcome, right? I mean I think one of the previous questions is we know the category is challenge. We know the shape of our portfolio. So we have to figure out a way to execute with the portfolio we have and use the investments we have, right? I mean I talk about this all the time. We've got to make sure our marketing dollars and our people dollars are going after the right things in the market.

So your question of how we're going to make it, right? We took all those actions. We have the leaders of sales and marketing and our Canada business around the table now with making sure that we reoriented our regions in the United States. And this is, by the way, applicable even to our EMEA, APAC business. We're making sure that we look at our investments as a collective pool and making sure we're getting the right ROI against that by geography.

What's the right level, Robert, I think that's a little bit more -- we'll share that a little bit later. But we want to make sure in terms of how the brands show up, your question about how do you coordinate, how the brands show up is obviously going to be in one way, right? You're not going to have 5 Coors Light or 4 Coors Light. You're going to have 1 Coors Light, you're going to have 1 Miller Lite. But how those brands are executed in those geographies matter differently, right? And this is what I say is beer is very local. And it's true, by the way, for brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite and obviously, for the value segment.

So the question is how do we rebuy our business to really drive that. So we implemented those changes in quarter 4. We're in the process of executing it. We reoriented our planning with our distributors. So this is more of our distributor-facing organization. And we frankly are leaning into that starting already in January. And this has resulted in different conversations with our distributors, right, on how we bring funds and how they bring funds on really winning in that particular geography. So it is the concept of we are being local. It is about reorganizing our teams. And frankly, we did the hard stuff in Q4 to really put that within our organization.

The only other part I'd add is we're also changing the incentive plans, right, incentive plans of how we measure our people. When I talk about P&L accountability closest to the market, doesn't mean anything if folks are not measured both on the top and the bottom line as closest to the market as possible.

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo. Just I guess this serves as an earnings call. So I'm going to be a bit tactical about this and then strategic. But Tracey, is there any phasing considerations that you want to put out there for the guidance this year, with premium phasing, brand volume, like whatever that is. And connected to this is some of this is going to have to or ultimately get to like an exit rate for the business. We're talking about medium-term top line growth, bottom line growth in a way, you're going to be measured against perhaps how you exit 2026.

I don't really know how all that will go, right? But at what point do we start anchoring you towards some of these medium-term objectives that you've laid out today? And what are the metrics that we should be looking at over the course of 2026, like improving market share, should volumes be turning positive, like whatever you think that we should be looking at in order to gain that perspective. So just the phasing thing on this year and that how do we measure you...

So let me start. So in terms of phasing, we expect the quarters to look very similar to this last year. So STW, the shape quarter-by-quarter very similar. We've got the same number of days. April sort of fall into the same quarter as last year. There might be a little bit of loading for 4th of July, but really very similar. 2025 was different because we had the contract brewing arrangement that was coming out. And so it was a lot more volatile with that.

In terms of the Midwest premium, if you look back, the Midwest premium really rapidly went up in the second half of last year. So the first half was still a little bit muted, although from February, it did sort of go up, but the big rise was really in the second half of the year. So we'll be lapping that only in the second half. Other than that, I mean, the pricing, when we take pricing, that's all very similar. The way that we're investing in our brands, generally, we tend to invest marketing dollars more in the summer selling season where it masses. So you'll probably see similar phasing around that as well.

Yes. And your question about what metrics and how do you see we are making progress, I'd call out market share is obviously a key one, right? I mean we know where we are in the category. We know the shape of our portfolio, but we are start seeing share improvements. The other thing I'd call out is in the portfolio transformation journey is mix, right? I mean more and more of our NSR, I think the question was, so while pricing lever we will lean on that where we can, but mix has to be an important aspect because that's where the portfolio transformation happens. We're excited about the Fever-Tree business coming into our portfolio full year '26. I think Fever-Tree is our biggest per hectoliter brand we have now, right?

So I would say those two2 are the key ones. And obviously, the cost savings and our investment all is around margins, right? So those three, I would say, are the key metrics we're going to keep talking about and making sure we can show progress along with the buyback. I know the questions about cash and buyback is fair, but we're committed to making sure we continue on that buyback journey while we're making sure we reset and get our business back to growth.

I think Bonnie is coming us to give us a sign. There's one more question.

We're running out of time. So I think we're going to have to stop there. Please join me in thanking Molson Coors again for the upcoming reception. [indiscernible] outside down the stairs. They'll be around to hopefully answer any more of your questions. And as a reminder, please don't forget to take all of your belongings because this room will be locked. Thank you.

Great. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley's Beverages and Household Products and tobacco team, and I'm very pleased to welcome Molson Coors back to our Global Consumer and Retail Conference. Before we begin, please see the Morgan Stanley research website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures for important disclosures. And if you have any questions, you can reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales rep.

So joining us today, we have Molson Coors' new CEO, Rahul Goyal; and CFO, Tracey Hubert. While Rahul just became CEO on October 1, he's a 24-year veteran 24 years at Molson Coors was a key architect of TAPs beyond beer and overall strategy in his prior role or his most recent role as Chief Strategy Officer. So Rahul, Tracey, thanks so much for joining us.

Thank you.

Thank you, Eric. Thanks for having us.

Great. So Rahul, you've stepped into the CEO position at a challenging time for both Molson Coors and the U.S. beer industry. Industry volumes are on track to decline 4% to 6% this year. Big picture, what do you see as the biggest challenges and opportunities ahead? And what advantages does Molson Coors bring to the table to navigate this difficult environment?

Yes, it's a great setup, Eric. So if you think about it, I mean, there's a lot written about the challenges. So I'll just touch upon that just for context, but more about the opportunities ahead of the way we think about the business. So -- there's a lot about the category and the headwinds in the category, whether that's all of alcohol, whether it's beer, that's definitely something we think about if you think about the cost side, inflation relevant to us in our business, we have the Midwest premium. We think about that.

Those, I would say, are the big things that are outside our control, right, than the macro issues that every other CPG companies are dealing with. So those are the big macro issues. But I think the opportunities is what we try to focus on is what can we control and what can we do. And I break that down for us in our business is 1 around our portfolio.

So if you look at our brands and our portfolio, right, we have a pretty broad portfolio that meets the needs for different consumers. So I think that's a great opportunity. And I know we'll talk a little bit more about that in the context of core brands, what those mean. And when I say core brands, I mean, like Coors Light, Miller Lite, banquet, economy category. So our economy category is an important aspect, especially in light of what's happening with the consumer and making sure we have an offering for them.

We have so much runway in above premium, both in beer and beyond beer. So the portfolio overall, I think, is exciting. The other aspect I'll call out as opportunities for us is our capabilities and our infrastructure in some of the best profit pools of the world, right? So if you look at our global footprint, we are in markets that we have very good profit pools. And we have a big infrastructure and capabilities that we can weight in that infrastructure, right?

So we have our distribution network, brewery infrastructure, supply chain, commercial capabilities, so I'd look at that as definitely in a strategic advantage as we think about the category and the challenges.

And then the third thing I'd call out is our balance sheet, right? So if you look at us as a business, free cash flow yield in terms of cash, our leverage ratio. And our balance sheet is in a much stronger place today than it has been previously that allows us to go into this next chapter in a strong way.

So yes, external context is hard, category is hard, some of the things are outside our control, but we've got so much opportunity to lean into the places that we can drive our business forward.

Great. And then as we've look ahead in the context of the whole cyclical versus structural debate, which we're not going to solve here, but -- how are you thinking about growth for the industry next year and over the midterm? And then realizing you haven't come out with your full strategy yet and address the algorithm, but sort of how does this tougher industry outlook and competitive environment kind of play into your midterm plan?

Yes. No, I think it is -- I know that is a question on everybody's mind, right? Cyclical structural, what does that mean? And the way I'd contextualize this is, if you go back just even COVID years and pre -- around that time frame and 10 years before that, the beer category has been in the minus 1, minus 2 space, volume-wise, right? The last few years has been in the minus 3-ish number. And then this year, it's in the minus 4, minus 6 range, right? So the minus 4.7 from minus 5 range.

So there's definitely something happening this year. Now is it consumer health? Is it Hispanic consumers? Is it folks pressured under just generally what's happening in the macro environment, all of that is true. So we do believe that, that this cycle will pass, right? This cycle will pass, and we need to get our -- this category back into a place where back into the 3-ish range in terms of what the category can do.

Now there is a responsibility on us and the category as a whole to make sure we are investing in the category and making sure we talk about beer in a way that is meaningful and engages consumers. I was talking to some folks earlier today, beer and alcohol gets a little bit of a bad rap, but I'm sure you guys have all seen the studies that something affecting younger population today bigger than anything else is isolation, right?

And that's 1 of the issues. And then if you think about beer, it is the choice of moderation. It is way of bringing people together. So I think there's a category thing that we need to lean in us as a company and us as a category. But then to your question of, for us, Molson Coors, if you break down our portfolio, we have good core brands, that we need to make sure are healthy and winning share.

We have economy portfolio that we haven't talked about a lot in the recent times, but we just need to make sure we're keeping that healthy. There is a consumer that loves those brands. We need to make sure they are relevant. Our brands are relevant, and we just got to stop the leaky bucket in a way.

And then above premium beer is just opportunities for us. So while we have made good progress in Canada and the U.K. we have more work to do in the U.S. So for us, all of that is upside. And then beyond beer is, again, new vectors of growth that we did not have previously. So with that combination, once the category gets a little bit more settled, I think we can find our way getting back to our growth of top line and bottom line.

Great. And then so digging into your portfolio segments as you laid out, looking at the U.S. So your core brands, Miller Lite, Coors Light, Banquet, huge progress in terms of brand health and market share if we take a multiyear horizon. But in the past year or so, we are seeing some heightened competition some improved market share trends from ABI, whether it's Ultra, whether it's [ Light ]. So I guess what's the playbook from here to improve the core brand market share and eventually top line?

No, no, I think that's a great question. And I think you're right. If you look at our share performance this year compared to last year as a total company, we have lost share. But if you break that down, the 2 areas that we've lost majority of our share is the economy portfolio and flavor.

We've lost some share in core brands, as you said, Coors Light, Miller Lite and banquet. And if you go deeper into that, but that's a very small part of what we've lost share. But if you look at that place, Coors Banquet is doing really well. We're gaining share. Even Coors Light is pretty strong if you compare to Coors Light, right? I mean we have to do some work on Miller Lite in particular regions. But we have -- this is part of the portfolio that we just have to win share. I mean that's the thesis.

So I think we're pretty excited as we turn the corner this year going into next year. If you look at Coors Light, we have, I think, 30-plus college affiliations in terms of sports and how we bring the brand to life. With Miller Lite, we have, I think, 19 NFL partnerships, we're excited about some of the new campaigns we're going to be bringing forward starting next year around sociability and how do we make sure we bring people together, using our big brand.

So -- so while we have work to do in our total portfolio, I think it's important for these brands to be healthy, it's important for these brands to be gaining share. And again, our regional execution and the way we're going to do things will help make sure we address some of the gaps we have in things like Miller Lite in a particular region.

So overall headline is these 3 brands, obviously super important to us. Very focused on it being sure, we have the right level of investment, change a few things on execution, but feeling good about our ability to keep -- keeping the share and gaining share in these 3 in the core.

Good. So turning to your above premium portfolio. You've had some successes like Peroni. Other areas have been a bit more mixed, Blue Moon progress, some signs of progress, but a little bit slower than I think we'd all like. Some ups and downs with your flavored offerings, which not unlike the category.

So can you talk a bit about what you're doing to accelerate the growth for the above premium business and sort of how that fits with your target to increase your global premium mix from was it 27% to about 1/3 over the next few years?

Yes. No. So if you look at our above-premium agenda, I think your 27% is the right reference point now. I think we were 23%, 24% when we started this journey 4, 5 years ago. So we have been making progress. And most of our progress, frankly, has been in countries outside the U.S., right? So in Canada, we've done a great job of premiumizing U.K., we've done a great job of premiumizing. But yes, we've been in the U.S., that's been a challenge.

And if I break it down into 3 buckets for premiumization. It's about premium beer, it's flavors, as you said, and then call it pure-play non-alc, if that's the third bucket. And if you look at beer, Peroni has done well. We have so much runway, so much opportunity in that brand with the green bottle and really winning in the United States. But Blue Moon's been hard. And frankly, we have work to do on that. If you look at Blue Moon as a brand, the innovation is starting to show some progress.

So if you look at non-alc, if you look at the high ABV brand, high ABV Blue Moon. That stuff is starting to put some support for the total brand family. But our core brand needs some work. And if you look at Q3 numbers, I mean, if you go back to Blue Moon, Blue Moon was built on-premise, right? It was built with the orange and Q3, our on-premise trends for Blue Moon got better. So we have work to do on Blue Moon. It is something we're going to be super committed to. It is taking more time. So I think that is true.

We have a new campaign now at Colin Jost coming in Jost, sorry, I missed announced his name. But we're excited. It is a brand that is important to us. It's a brand that we're going to stay committed to. But yes, you're absolutely right. We have work to do on the core Blue Moon brand. It's just taking a little longer.

To your question on flavors, flavors is a volatile category. I mean, we had some good success with Topo Chico. We had some good success with Simply initially got some scale, but this category is volatile. And we got to stay fleet of foot and make sure we're winning in a way that the consumer pivots in this category. And I think we've been able to do that with Topo Chico, how we pivoted firms, Seltzer to more full flavor of beverage, the margarita, but we have work to do on Simply.

Simply is where the majority of our drag is in the flavor side. We have some new launches with higher ABV products, smaller packaging. But flavor is volatile, and it is something we have to make sure we're not overproliferating in terms of flavors, et cetera, but it is something we'll have to continue to work on.

And there are some gaps in solving in the RTD space that we need to lean in on. And then just the last part and above premium is, I would say, non-alc beyond beer is you're making progress. I mean this year, we have Fever-Tree. It adds to our premiumization effort. It's complementary to our portfolio. It works well between non-alc and alc.

So it is an execution and we can execute it well within our business, within our infrastructure. So I think all of those 3 things will help us move the journey on the premiumization piece. Again, go back to if you look at the consumer today in our core markets, it's a bifurcated consumer. You got top end of the consumer that's doing well. And our brands like Peroni, like Fever-Tree are relevant to that consumer. On the other hand, we need make our economy portfolio and other parts of our portfolio are relevant to the rest of the consumer.

Yes. It is a good segue into my next question at the other end of the portfolio spectrum. You said on the third quarter call, a few times that all segments matter, which I don't think I've heard from Molson Coors in a few years, maybe back when Gavin was CFO, I heard some talk about that.

So you also said that you'll be increasing investments behind a few economy brands like Miller High Life and Keystone Light. So I guess what's driving the change here and what's the goal for the economy portfolio within the U.S. business? Are you just trying to hold share? Are you trying to go back on the offensive?

Yes. No, I think that's a great question. And I would ask you to think about it in the context of the consumer first, right? Again, I go back to the U.S. consumer in Canada and to some degree in U.K., you do have a bifurcated consumer, right? You have folks that things are going pretty well for them. And that's why Peroni sells well. That's why Fever-Tree sells well.

And -- but then you have a consumer that is under economic pressure. And our economy portfolio is a sizable part of our business. I just use this as a frame of reference. If you just look at our economy portfolio, we probably be fourth or fifth largest beer company in the country. So it is an important part of our portfolio, and we need to make sure we're giving it the right -- it's important to us, it's important to our distributors.

So it is relevant from a consumer perspective. It is relevant from our business perspective. And now we need to find a way to win in that space, right? We have been leading share. We've been leading volume there. And I would say there's 2 goals there. 1, this is a very regional business, right? The economy portfolio is very regional. There's a few brands that work in very specific geographies. High Life and Keystone are big brands that are more national, but even those have a very different geographical footprint. On how these brands show up. So we got to win with these brands.

Again, I think I shared this anecdote with folks. Anybody here heard about the Hamm's convention in Minnesota? No and you probably didn't hear about the Hamm's convention in Minnesota, but Hamm's, for some of you who may be Hamm's is a great brand and -- but it's sold in 4 states. And you have consumers that love the brand. And by the way, we don't sponsor that convention. They just make this stuff up on their own.

But it is -- I talk about the love for these brands, right? It's relevant. And now it's on us to make sure we can bring that relevancy for those folks in a way and engage them on this. So it is both a play of making sure we meet the consumers where they are. But then also making sure we have the right investment. These are not -- we're not talking about big national campaigns around sports, et cetera. We're talking about very localized focused efforts around economy portfolio and where these brands are relevant.

Great. And then your performance on-premise over the past couple of quarters has been notably stronger than off-premise. So a little surprising, given, as we talked about that consumer bifurcation or at least the low-end consumer weakness. So what's driving this? And how sustainable is it as you look to 2026 and beyond, when you win TAP Handles, how sticky is that real estate?

Yes. And I think I go back again a couple of points is about sociability, right? I mean, beer is the product of sociability. Beer is the product we're bringing people together. It is about celebrating moments together. So to your point, as an industry, on-premise in Q3 was slightly better than off-premise trends, I think, about 2 plus points. And then our performance, I think, was a little bit better than that in the on-premise. So if you look at on-premise for us, obviously, we have the big brands that matter Coors light, Miller Lite. But the things I'd call out is Banquet, right?

Again, it's a 150-year-old brand and is 1 of the most popular brands with Gen Z. It's 1 of the most popular brands with Hispanic consumers. So it is -- you've got to find the right connection of these brands with consumers. And I think Banquet has done a phenomenal job of -- of making that connection. And I think you saw that in the on-premise numbers. And then I go back to Blue Moon, right? I mean we have work to do on Blue Moon as a core brand.

But on-premise trends in Q3 got better than Q2. So I do think on-premise is important. I think generally, consumers want that connection want to find a way of coming together and sociability. Obviously, beer plays an important role in that. And then our job is to make sure our brands are front in that game, right? And I think -- we've been able to do that with our core brands, but we need to keep doing that with a bunch of other brands in our portfolio.

Great. So turning to your international operations. You've had a nice round of market share improvement in Canada despite a soft industry, although I think I read earlier in the week, WallStreet Journal article about the industry picking up a bit in Canada. And then you've had some continued momentum from Madrid in the U.K. despite a soft industry there and some pretty tough competitive activities. So how are you thinking about the outlook for your international business over the next 12 to 18 months? And then over the medium term given these cross currents?

Yes. No, I think, again, if you think about our business, right, I mean we are operating in a set of geographies, U.S., Canada, U.K. and a few countries in Central Europe. And I, again, go back to this is -- these are great profit pools to be in. In Canada, you rightly said the category has not been as volatile as the U.S., which is surprising, right? Usually, Canada is a lot more volatile than the U.S., but Canada has been volatile month by month, but generally, it's been much healthier than the U.S. this year.

And we've been growing share. We've looked at different provinces. We've been growing share. So -- we're making good progress. Canada, again, Coors Light is the #1 brand. We keep fighting for that spot, but it is the #1 brand. So -- and the Canadian trade bank has done really well in Canada. To your point, in the U.K., it is a competitive market. It is a super competitive market, but we've continued the journey of premiumization.

Madrid continues to grow. We have some work to do in our core in calling, but we're doing the right things in terms of winning in U.K. And then in Central Europe, I would say, just pockets of growth in places, where we have a big footprint, right? Croatia, Romania, I think we've done a good job of making sure we can both keep our core brands healthy, but also premiumize.

Central Europe has a lot of other solid macro issues around geopolitical concerns in that part of the world, energy pricing, et cetera. But if you step back and look at our business, premiumization, we've done a good job across most of our markets, except the U.S. If you look at our European business and the growth profile we've had on that business since even pre-COVID, right? I mean we have bigger business, top line and bottom line.

The growth rates have been comparable or better than Americas business. So those parts of the business are doing well. Now I also say that recognizing that we have work to do, right? And if you look at our European business, we have work to do on improving our ROIC. We have work to do in making sure our margin structure and really making sure we can get a good margin structure that's comparable to our peers. So there is definitely more work to do, but good progress, good progress in making sure our brands are showing up in the right way, both in Europe and in Canada.

Good. So Tracey, turning to costs. You noted on the last earnings call that the Midwest premium was at sort of the upper end of your third quarter expectations and slightly above it in October. So I know you're not giving guidance yet, and you don't give guidance by line item.

But how are you thinking about COGS pressure as you close out 2025 and then inflation in your commodity basket into 2026. Given that you have a pretty extensive hedging program, but then Midwest premium is sort of the outlier there hardest to hedge?

Yes. I mean our biggest challenge is the Midwest premium right now in our COGS line. We've spoken about this extensively -- at the beginning of the year, the Midwest premium was trading around $0.20. October, it hits an all-time high, and now it's trading around $0.86, $0.87. I mean there's no reason for that. We've spoken about the fact that the Midwest premium price is basically set by 1 entity.

There's no -- it's not a liquid market. It's not transparent. We do hedge it, but one of our lease-hedged commodities. And the reason for that is because it is difficult to hedge. It's difficult to hedge it just far out. I mean some of our commodities, we hedge out in 3 years. We can't do that with the Midwest premium. It's difficult hedge. It's very expensive to hedge.

And because it's so volatile, it makes it expensive. So as I said, we do hedge it, but it's difficult. So at the levels that it's at, it will continue to be a headwind for us, a big headwind. We spoke about the year-over-year impact for us this year, just the Midwest premium we said in Q2, it was going to be $40 million to $55 million will kept on climbing. And so we guided to at the high end of that range. But if it continues at this level, it's going to continue to be a big headwind for us.

So what do we do? We mitigate that as much as we can through cost savings programs, a lot of our cost savings programs are focused on the COGS line. With our breweries with our network. So we have made some difficult decisions, closing some smaller underperforming breweries in Wisconsin earlier this year. But we've also made investments in the past couple of years that have helped us to keep our costs low. So capital investments that we've made in our breweries. And we've built new breweries in Canada. We just completed the modernization of our golden brewery that was hundreds of millions of dollars over multiple years, but we're starting to see those cost savings and those efficiencies come through as well.

And then the other thing I would say is all of the other commodities, we know how to hedge and they're easy to hedge. And I think we do a really good job. If you look at our COGS per hectoliter, you'll see it's well below inflation. And so all other commodities, I think we do a really decent job. It's the Midwest premium that continues to be a big challenge. And we're not sitting back and not doing anything.

We're trying to shine a spotlight on this as we have for a while now, trying to get people to look at it and really try and understand like what is driving this because there's no apparent reason. And then just as we touch on some of our European operations, obviously, the inflation is a little bit higher as it has been since COVID, and there's a lot of geographical political turmoil in those areas. So inflation is still a little bit high there, but we again mitigated through cost savings and really having a look at what efficiencies we can drive through our breweries.

So moving down the P&L, and I guess this would be for both of you. Are you running currently at the right level of marketing and brand support? Or do you see any need for any kind of a step change going forward? And then as you look a bit more holistically at capabilities and investments, whether it's the breweries that Tracey mentioned or supply chain, digital, are there areas where you need a further step up? Or are you comfortable with the level after the big increases under the revitalization plan?

Yes, I can take the initial part Tracey. I mean if you look at our brands, I mean, I know we talk a lot about the category. We talk a lot about what's happening cyclical structure. But I think what we're going to stay focused on making sure our brands are well supported, right? Again, your question about, do we think we need a significant increase in spend. We probably don't need that. I mean we -- I think we're doing the right level of spend. We need to optimise our spend.

We have some new brands that we've added on to our portfolio like the non-AC portfolio like Fever-Tree. So we will spend the appropriate marketing to really lean into some of those brand things. On the G&A front, I think there's a little bit of just -- if you think about this year and next year, there's a little bit of recycling of things. I mean, this year, we're going to end up with low to no incentive for our teams, and therefore, there's a little bit of cycling.

But as we think about capabilities and investment in capabilities, we always think about what is it doing for the business? Is it driving some sort of a bottom line impact? Is it driving top-line impact? There is definitely areas of technology, et cetera, we want to lean in on -- but in terms of -- I know this is probably a question in the context of what does '26 look like. But if you look at it, I mean, there will be -- we're going to keep looking at ways to optimize things. But nothing significant, I would say, is the way to think about it.

I mean I think anything that I would add, and it is true for this year as well, despite it being a difficult year, I mean, we're not going to cut our marketing to hit the bottom line targets. We'll continue to put pressure behind the brands, our core brands, in particular, behind Peroni as we've seen, Peroni is growing close to 30%. We're going to put continued pressure behind Fever-Tree -- we'll have it for a full year next year, that brand still got a lot of awareness gaps that we need to go after.

And so we'll put the right amount of pressure behind our brands. And then as Rahul said, certainly capabilities is something that we're focused on right now, whether it would be in the AI range, around insights and tools, et cetera, whether it would be systems work, with ERP systems, et cetera. It's really important for us to continue to stay maybe not ahead of the curve, but with the curve in terms of technology.

Turning to M&A. Rahul, since -- on the third quarter call and since then, you've really sounded much more open about the role of M&A going forward. Calling out portfolio gaps like spirit-based RTDs implying that transactions could be larger than the former String of Pearls approach. So can you talk a bit about the strategic and financial criteria for evaluating potential M&A?

And then the question I get from people is, well, how big theoretically, are they willing to go? Is this going to be transformative or somewhere in between string of pearls and something much larger. And relatedly, how central is this to the -- to your beyond beer aspirations?

Yes. No, that's -- so I understand the context of the question, right? So I'd break it down into 2 parts. So first is portfolio. what problem are we trying to solve in our portfolio. And if you look at our portfolio, we have a great beer portfolio. We talk about core, we talk about economy, we talk about above premium. We're always going to look at beer, but we have a good beer portfolio.

And that has to be healthy and strong for our business to grow period, right? That has to work. So a lot of energy in time is going to be around that piece. Now we also recognize where consumers are going, and this is why you have the beyond beer approach, right? And in that, we need to solve some gaps in our portfolio. We're not talking of 10 different brands. We don't need 10 new brands. We have some gaps we need to fill like an RTD spirit, as you said, right?

And flavor is a very volatile category, and we need to make sure we get an asset that makes sense to us, and we can execute well on. So we will look at deploying capital in terms of gaps we have in our portfolio in a very measured way. I think second part of your question was in the context of capital deployment and size. right?

So if you look at our business, our balance sheet is in a very healthy place. We are a pretty strong free cash flow yield company. And we're going to keep disciplined about how we -- what we've done over the last few years. leverage ratio and the debt paydown is an important criteria. We're going to keep making sure we have that as a key criteria returning money to shareholders through a stable dividend and buyback is important.

And then thinking through capital investment and M&A. That's where it needs to make sure it has the right return, whether it is CapEx and investments we make in a brewery, Tracey talked about, some of the investments we made in our brewery is really delivering bottom line benefits, right, whether it is labor capabilities or variety packing, things like that. So -- so we will definitely look at an ROI approach to all that investment.

In terms of your question of size, I know we haven't shared any specific metrics around this, and I look forward to sharing that down the road. But think of our business the $11-plus billion revenue. We need to have brands that move the needle for us, right? If it's too small, it doesn't do anything. It just -- it's a lot of energy, a lot of just institutional work to take care of them. So it has to be brands that move the needle for us. It has to be in a way it's disciplined for top and bottom line.

And I emphasize that because it's easy to chase sometimes assets for top line. And I don't think we're going to be in that mode, right? We're going to be disciplined about being sure we can get top and bottom line. It needs to fit the portfolio piece I talked about. And it needs to fit how we execute these brands.

And again, use Fever-Ree is a great example. We know how to get it on trucks. We can probably drive -- we are driving a bunch of around that in terms of execution. But then we see a path in the next 12 to 18 months of localizing production in the United States, right? Instead of getting it from the U.K., and that's going to drive a lot more on the bottom line.

So I know folks -- the way I would best characterize it disciplined capital allocation, definitely need to fill some gaps in the portfolio, but we'll do that in a prudent way for both the top and bottom line, Eric, at this stage.

Great. So Tracey to dig a bit deeper into capital allocation. So you ended the third quarter net leverage in the low 2s, I think it was 2.3 versus your 2.5 target. You had just under $900 million left on your 5-year $2 billion repurchase authorization.

So can you discuss the capital allocation priorities from here, further buybacks even beyond the existing authorization? How could that fit in with the aspirations around M&A in the portfolio?

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Sure. I mean, where we are today is obviously in a much stronger position with our balance sheet. So we had this target to have our leverage below 2.5x. And as you rightly say, we achieved that much earlier than we thought. But that gives us a lot of options around the rest of our capital allocation.

And so Raul has spoken about M&A and investment in our business. We plan to keep that leverage ratio. We think it's a perfect spot for us. The rating that we've got, the investment grade is important to us. And so it's important for us to keep the strong balance sheet. And then other than the investment in M&A and our business, the third bucket is returning cash to shareholders. And as you rightly say, I mean, we've got this $2 billion share buyback program.

We're well ahead of where we should be if you just divided it over 5 years. We have got $880 million left on that. We will continue to execute behind that share buyback. We do believe that our share is a compelling investment. And so we'll continue returning cash to shareholders through buying back our own shares, but also paying a dividend. And when we reinstated our dividend during COVID, we did say that we want to sustainably grow our dividend over time.

And you can see over the last couple of years, that's exactly what we've done. We want to make sure that we do return cash to shareholders through a dividend. But -- but truly, the share buyback has been a big program for us. And yes, we will continue to execute the program that we've got in place.

Great. So to wrap up, I want to turn back to Rahul with a broader question. Certainly bring unique perspective is new to the CEO role, but long-term executive with the company. So what do you think is sort of the most misunderstood or underappreciated part about Molson Coors story today?

Yes. No, thanks for that. That's a good question. I would call again go back into probably 3 ways to think about us as a business, right? 1 is our portfolio. And I know folks sometimes look at our portfolio saying it's too broad, it's too big. But all segments do matter. And then I ask you to look at that from the context of the consumer, right? The top end of the consumer is driving it. I mean premiumization has been an important factor in our category in alcohol.

And we have so much runway that we can go after, right? Because we are underrepresented in that part of the consumer. Our core brands and the economy portfolio matters because it matters in all consumers, right? So I -- what excites me is the fact that we do have brands that matter in all segments. And obviously, our job becomes how do we make sure our brands resonate with the right consumer in the right places in the right channels.

So the portfolio is an exciting part for us, right, especially in the context of the consumer and where they are. I wouldn't underestimate the capabilities and the infrastructure we have in the biggest profit pools. I go back to that. I mean big plants, our ability to get product to 500,000, 600,000 outlets, twice a week, 3 times a week.

I mean this is a capability that I think is an important factor, right, in the business we are in. And you're seeing that play out with brands like Fever-Tree and in terms of scaling them -- so it is, I think, another exciting part of making sure we can leverage our infrastructure, leverage our capabilities to really drive scale.

And then the third aspect is I would call out is our free cash flow and our balance sheet, right? So if you look at our balance sheet, I think we've been pretty diligent about it and really disciplined about it. If you look at our free cash flow generation, that's a pretty strong story. So that's what I would leave you guys with is our portfolio, our capabilities and our balance sheet and cash flow. I think those are the compelling reasons for Molson Coors.

Great. Well, not quite Miller time yet, but I'm sure we're going to be enjoying some of your products at the reception tonight.

So with that, I want to thank you Rahul and Tracey. And...

It is Miller time any time by the way. Thank you.

Thank you so much.

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call.

With that, I'll hand it over to Traci Mangini, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. For more information, please refer to the forward-looking statements disclosure in our earnings release. In addition, the definitions of or reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our earnings release. Please note that with the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period.

With me on the call today are Gavin Hattersley, former Chief Executive Officer, who retired October 1, but remains with the company on an advisory capacity until year-end; Rahul Goyal, Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. Today, Gavin would like to share some opening remarks before passing to Rahul to provide an initial high-level view of his vision going forward. Tracey will then wrap up with a brief review of the quarter and our 2025 outlook.

A more detailed presentation of our quarterly performance, including financial and operational metrics and drivers, is available in our earnings release and earnings slides, which were made available earlier today on the IR section of our website. Upon the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will take your questions. And as always, we ask that you limit yourself to one question, and then, if needed, return to the queue.

With that, I'll pass it to you, Gavin.

Thank you, Traci, and hello, everybody, and thank you for joining the call. I am pleased to be here today for what is my last earnings call with Molson Coors. It has been an incredible journey, and I could not be prouder of this team and the strong foundation that we have built. This includes our iconic brands across the world, our leading capabilities from supply chain to marketing, our dramatically improved balance sheet and our strong free cash flow generation.

And while I'm retiring during a difficult time in the industry, I am confident in the company's ability to return to growth. So with that, it is my great pleasure to introduce Rahul who took over the role of CEO on October 1. During my 6 years as CEO, I worked closely with Rahul, his deep strategic insights, institutional knowledge, fresh perspectives and proven ability to deliver, which are particularly important in these dynamic times, make him, in my view, the right choice for the job. And while he has only been in role for about a month, he has certainly hit the ground running.

And to share more about this, I'll pass the call to Rahul.

Thank you, Gavin. It has been a true privilege to work with you for so many years, and I look forward to building on your many accomplishments and continuing to support the strong culture you have built that makes Molson Coors so special. Now clearly, these are dynamic times, and we, like many staples companies, have been impacted by macro-related factors that have pressured consumption behavior. In the U.S., these macro impacts have had a disproportionate effect on the lower income and Hispanic consumer.

And within beer, these consumer segments have driven a reduction in the number of buyers as well as spend per trip with a continued shift to singles in the third quarter. In Europe, the macro environment has also contributed to continued industry softness, pressuring demand across our regions. But we continue to believe that the incremental softness in the industry this year is cyclical, and we believe that we are well positioned with a healthy balance sheet, strong free cash flow and great brands that serve a wide range of consumer occasions and preferences.

This all helps us to navigate these near-term cyclical headwinds while investing in our business to support the long-term growth. I know everyone is eager to hear more about my vision for the future, and there will be more details to come. But today, I would like to provide a high-level view of our strategic priorities and how we plan to adapt in these challenging times, improve our commercial performance, capitalize on opportunities and ultimately return to top and bottom line growth. I want to assure you that we are moving with a sense of urgency and with a clear purpose.

In my first 30 days, we have already begun to implement structural changes, both in terms of leadership and operations to put us on the path to success. At the highest level, it begins by focusing on our portfolio, to build strong and scalable brands in both beer and beyond beer. This entails prioritizing our investments to build on the strength of our core and economy beer portfolios and to transform our above premium beer and beyond beer portfolios.

In beer, we already have a strong core portfolio with iconic global brands and regional market leaders. They are the majority of our business. So we intend to continue to put strong commercial pressure behind them. For Miller Lite and Coors Light, this means new campaigns and high-profile sports and music alliances that build on their strong brand health and support our ambition for share growth for these brands. And for Banquet, we intend to capitalize on its impressive success by leaning in even more to fuel its strong momentum and to continue to bridge the sizable distribution gap with Coors Light. Recall that Banquet is only in just over half the buying outlets of Coors Light. And not only is Banquet an important growth driver in our U.S. business, but it offers learnings that we believe can be applied more broadly across the portfolio.

We also plan to selectively increase our focus on certain economy brands like Miller High Life and Keystone Light, which are big brands with loyal consumer bases. We firmly believe that all price segments matter. And while, as an industry, we are not seeing trade down at the brand level, in today's environment, more than ever, economy is an important segment. And we continue to see big opportunities in above premium. While we have had strong premiumization success in markets outside the U.S., we meaningfully underindexed in above premium in the U.S., and we plan to lean in even harder to change that in both beer and beyond beer.

In beer, it's no secret that we think Peroni has great potential. It's only been 2 quarters since we fully onshored Peroni and activated our commercial plans, and we are already seeing good progress with brand volume up 25% in the third quarter. And with expected increases in media investment next year, including programming for the Olympics and with only about 1/3 of the distribution of the other major competitors, we see significant runway ahead. We also remain committed to stabilizing Blue Moon. And to be frank, we haven't seen the success we would like.

Recent innovation with non-alc and high ABV brand extensions have been encouraging while the core Blue Moon Belgian White continues to be challenged. We are going to be looking closely with a fresh commercial perspective at what we can do differently to best ensure that this big and important brand supports our premiumization objectives. Now while beer is our roots and at the core of our business, you can also expect us to step up our focus on beyond beer because we believe we can win here. Not only does it help to premiumize our business, but it also creates value for our customers by appealing to a wider range of consumer preferences and serving more occasions.

In flavored alcohol, we already have big brands, and some have been rechallenged recently. But Topo Chico is a great example of how, with the right commercial approach, we can improve trends. By focusing investments on the markets where the Topo Chico brand most strongly resonates and through thoughtful innovation, we achieved positive dollar share gains in the third quarter in these regions. And we recognize we have gaps, including RTD spirits, and we intend to fill them.

In non-alc, we are focused on building scale, and we are off to a great start. We believe our partnership with Fever-Tree in the U.S. provides a strong base from which to grow our total non-alc portfolio. In fact, Fever-Tree volume has been performing strongly, and it has been very well received by distributors and retailers, and we are excited by the opportunity to significantly grow the brand in the years to come. And this is just the beginning of our non-alc efforts as we see opportunities to enter some other interesting areas. So we are making the infrastructure investments in people and systems that help to support the development of this business into something meaningful over time.

Now to achieve our commercial ambitions, we are taking a fresh look at our approach to commercial execution and at opportunities to optimize our cost structure to fuel reinvestment in the business. On the commercial side, creating value for our customers and consumers remains at the forefront of all that we do. But we believe we can be even more effective at this by focusing ownership of this business even closer to the market. And we intend to do this by deploying marketing and G&A investments based on specific market dynamics and portfolio priorities. This should help to increase our speed of decision-making, our agility to execute and ensure greater accountability and return-oriented mindset at the local level of our business.

On the cost side, as announced last month, we are implementing a corporate restructuring plan of our Americas business unit, designed to create a leaner, more agile organization while advancing our ability to reinvest in the business. This entails reducing our Americas salaried head count by approximately 400 positions, or 9% by the end of the year. This includes hundreds of salary positions that were already open due to head count prioritization efforts earlier this year and those who may be granted voluntary severance as part of this restructuring. We intend to redeploy some of these savings to step-up our investments behind key brands, commercial capabilities and in supply chain and technology that support ongoing productivity and efficiency. And we will continue to be disciplined stewards of our capital, using a dynamic capital allocation approach, balancing investments in M&A to fill portfolio gaps, while continuing to return cash to shareholders.

We'll be sharing more on capital allocation in the near future. But today, let me be very clear on 2 things. First, we seek scalable deals that we expect to be accretive to both top and bottom line and are prudent from a balance sheet perspective. And second, we remain committed to our dividend and to our share repurchase program as we continue to view our stock as a compelling investment. Now there is a lot of work to do, but we see a clear path forward. Results will take some time, but we are moving with a sense of urgency. We're confident we have the right brands and the plans to be successful. And I look forward to updating you on more of the details of strategy and financials and operational objectives in the coming months.

With that, I will pass it to Tracey, who will talk about our financial performance and outlook.

Thank you, Rahul. Third quarter consolidated net sales revenue was down 3.3%. Underlying pretax income was down 11.9% and underlying earnings per share was down 7.2%. On an underlying basis, the key quarterly drivers were largely as expected. The U.S. beer industry was down minus 4.7% based on our internal estimate. Our U.S. volume share was down 40 basis points based on our internal estimate, including relatively better share performance in the on-premise channel compared to the off-premise. Contract brewing was a 450,000 hectoliter or 3 percentage point headwind to the Americas financial volume. Excluding contract brewing, U.S. STWs outpaced STRs, resulting in a nearly 2 percentage point benefit to Americas' financial volume in the quarter.

EMEA and APAC volume continued to be pressured across all regions by ongoing soft market demand and a heightened competitive landscape. The Midwest premium remained elevated, but was within the expected price range, although at the higher end. And marketing was up while G&A was down largely due to lower incentive compensation as compared to prior year. While our discussion today, as typical, has been on an underlying basis, we also recorded a noncash partial goodwill impairment charge of $3.6 billion as well as noncash intangible asset impairment charges of $274 million in the quarter, which are discussed in detail in today's earnings release and 10-Q.

I also wanted to address the execution of our share repurchase plan during the quarter. Restrictions under our policies have prohibited us from executing under the repurchase plan during the open trading window following last quarter's earnings because we were in possession of material nonpublic information regarding our CEO search. We expect our regular quarterly trading window to open tomorrow, and we want to stress that we remain fully committed to our share repurchase plan and continue to strongly believe our stock is a compelling investment.

With that, let's discuss our outlook. We are reaffirming our 2025 guidance, but we now expect to come in at the low end of the prior ranges for our key metrics. Those key metrics and ranges are as follows: net sales revenue to decline 3% to 4% on a constant currency basis; underlying pretax income to decline 12% to 15% on a constant currency basis; underlying earnings per share to decline 7% to 10%; and underlying free cash flow of $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%.

Now before we get into the details, I'll remind you that the impacts of the global macro environment are multifaceted and difficult to predict. And while we have included in our guidance our best estimate of some of these factors, external drivers may significantly impact our actual results, either up or down. Starting with the top line, we now expect lower year-end U.S. distributor inventory levels. Year-to-date, U.S. STWs largely caught up to STRs in the third quarter. However, given lower 2025 volumes impacted by industry performance, we now anticipate year-end distributor inventory to be lower compared to year-end 2024 on an absolute basis, but year-end days of inventory to remain relatively consistent and at what we view as healthy levels entering the new year.

As a result, for the fourth quarter, we expect the U.S. STW trend to trail the U.S. STR trend, excluding contract brewing. All other top line drivers remain unchanged. We continue to expect U.S. industry volume to be down on average 4% to 6% for the second half of the year, while mindful that comparisons versus the year ago period were somewhat softer earlier in the third quarter before becoming more difficult into year-end. We will cycle 1.9 million hectoliters of contract brewing volume in the Americas in 2025 related to Pabst and Labatt and will cycle the remaining 300,000 hectoliters in the fourth quarter. And we continue to expect an annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America in line with the average historical range and mix benefits from cycling contract brewing from 2024 as well as from premiumization in both business units.

Moving down the P&L. We expect COGS to be negatively impacted by volume deleverage, including a lower expectation for year-end U.S. distributor inventory. Also, Midwest premium pricing has continued to increase. Our guidance assumed a price range of $0.60 to $0.75 per pound. This implies for the full year, Midwest premium costs will exceed the prior year by $40 million to $55 million, with most of the increase occurring in the second half of the year. However, as you can see on Page 18 of our earnings slides, the price trended at the upper end of this range in the third quarter and was slightly above it in October. Therefore, we expect increases to be at the high end of that range.

As for MG&A, we continue to expect it to be down slightly for the year due to lower incentive compensation, which is largely offset by higher non-alc infrastructure costs as well as the Fever-Tree onetime transition and integration fees in the first half of the year. Again, those onetime fees were approximately $30 million and will be recovered through net sales over the next 3 years, which began in the second quarter of this year. In closing, we remain committed to improving shareholder value and look forward to sharing more about our strategic plans and long-term objectives in the coming months.

With that, we will take your questions. Operator?

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

Great. Just 2 questions for me, one for Rahul and one for Tracey. First, Rahul, you've been in this role for about 30 days at this point and recognizing you've been with the company for some time. But just as you step into this CEO role, would love to get your perspective on what you see as the biggest opportunities and challenges ahead. And then, Tracey, I just was hoping to get some color on the implied improvement for the fourth quarter embedded in the top line guidance, just given the commentary on tougher category comps and now expecting to ship behind in Americas, can you just walk through the building blocks for 4Q as you see them today?

Thanks, Peter. If you look at the last 30 days, my focus and our priority has been, I would say, in 2 fronts. One is listening to our people and then our customers. And if you look at our business, right, I mean, I come from a place of we have a strong foundation. We got great brands, healthy balance sheet, but we have great opportunities. So if you look at our performance this year, majority of our share losses has been in the few areas, the economy category or the flavor category. But we got core brands that are pretty strong. And so we need to find a way to make them stronger. In above premium, we have great opportunities with the portfolio we have. Peroni is doing really well. We have some more work to do in Blue Moon. Again, the beyond beer strategy, I think this year Fever-Tree has been a great add to our business.

So if you look at imbalance, I'm pretty excited about a number of things we have going but recognize the challenges we have in some other parts of our portfolio and wanting to really get behind it. I think the piece I'll leave you with is we're definitely moving with a sense of urgency and pace, right? I mean we recognized the volatility in the category this year, but we also recognize the things that we can work on within our team. So -- no, looking forward to it Peter, it's been a quick 30 days, but definitely moving with pace. Tracey, you want to take the second one.

Yes. Thanks, Peter, for the question. So in terms of Q4, look, we are expecting better top line performance in our EMEA, APAC and Canada business units. And in addition, we are lapping softer comps from contract brewing in the U.S. So that's a big driver. Those 2 are the big drivers of our top line performance. And then just as that also translates to better bottom line performance as well as we will have lower G&A in the fourth quarter, really driven by the lower incentive compensation.

Our next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

I'd be remiss not to say congratulations, Gavin, on your career and best of luck. And so just from an inventory perspective, I think the message today is that you expect them to be lower in 2025 on an absolute basis, but closer to historical average on a days' inventory basis. And I just wanted to maybe check this. Does that mean that the category improves a little bit next year from the current lows? You would be entering 2025 with low inventory, say, lower than average if the category expansion picked up just a little bit. So I'm just conscious beer distributors often use year-end to clean up inventory and perhaps they're feeling a bit more anxious about that even more this year. And so I just wanted to test kind of how you would see your inventory position going into next year.

And I was listening to the prepared remarks from Rahul, thank you for all that, is it fair to say that you don't see this massive need to reinvest in the business as is typical when you enter a new leadership position and that with restructuring and sustained commitment to some of the strategies that you've laid out as you evolve into new strategies, you don't see that? Or do you see a business that perhaps is a bit underinvested in this opportunity going into next year on top of a soft year? So thanks on the inventory and the investment piece.

Thank you, Chris. I think if you look at distributor inventories, I think the way we look at it is it's in a pretty healthy place, right? I mean you've seen what's happened to the category this year. So going into end of this year and getting ourselves into next year, days of inventory, we believe we're in a good place. In terms of our capacity to pivot and make sure we have the right level of supply in Q1, we feel good about it with our brewery network and infrastructure. So -- and if you remember, even lapping a few things around the Fort Worth, the strike, et cetera, earlier this year.

So I think we feel pretty good about being in a good place, closing out this year, but also preparing and pivoting to getting our distributors right inventory levels next year. In terms of your question of shape of reinvestment, I'd share with you a couple of comments, and I know probably looking for clarity of what 2026 looks like. But I'm committed to making sure that we are building our brands, right? And if you look at our category, we need to be championing beer. We need to be making sure we, along with other folks in the category, are making sure that the category is healthy. And in that, we're going to be leaning in and making sure we can support our brands appropriately, whether it's the core brands, above premium.

In the economy, one, I called out as being very disciplined around a geographic view of our economy portfolio and making sure we are investing it in a smart way. The other part I'd just call out is our balance sheet and cash flow, right? I mean we are committed to returning cash to shareholders. But we also want to find ways to deploy capital to fill some gaps in our portfolio to get our growth going. So I would say it's going to be a combination of all of those in terms of making sure our brands are well supported but also using our balance sheet in a smart way of enabling top and bottom line growth but also returning cash to shareholders.

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

I was hoping you could give us a little more color on the pressures you're facing or that are facing the beer category, and I guess why you believe it's cyclical versus structural. And then what is your expectation for category growth this year? And do you expect the category to recover next year? And if so, what do you think will be the drivers of this? I guess, ultimately, where do you see the biggest areas of opportunity and I guess, risk next year?

Thanks, Bonnie. So I think I'll break your question into 2 or 3 pieces, right? So if you think about the pressures on the category, pre-2025, the last few years, our category has been in the minus 3-ish range. And if you look at this year, we've been in the minus 4% to minus 6%, and I think that's what we shared at the end Q2 that we believe this year's category is going to be in the minus 6% -- minus 4% to minus 6%. And this year, every quarter, every month has been pretty volatile, but we'll probably end up in that range, right? So I think our internal estimates suggests that we're in the minus 4.7% range in terms of the category health.

So there's something different this year. Right now, there's these structural issues that we've all talked about in the industry, whether it's health and wellness, whether it's the generational change. But this year, there's been a lot of other macro issues, right, whether it's the economic impacts, tariffs, immigration. So we still believe that we are -- this year or going into next year is cyclical. Once we get through some of these macro issues behind us, we should be getting back to the pre-2025 levels. So that's how we're thinking about the business. And the way I would call that out is if you look at our portfolio, we definitely have so much more opportunity to really lean into our business, right?

So while we've done a great job of premiumizing outside the United States, we're so underindexed in the U.S. And therefore, the opportunity for us there remains. And then if we look at our share losses this year, it's been around flavors and economy, and that's why you see me talking a little bit more about that because those are the gaps we need to be filling or improving on. So hopefully I answered your question about the category performance and just our views on that in the last -- in the short term and then also the long term.

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

This is Drew Levine on for Andrea. So Rahul, you just noted the expectation, I guess, that industry could return to pre-2025 levels. You also noted in the prepared remarks that results will take some time to see. So I guess if you could just provide any more context to -- if you think that the company could return to low single-digit organic sales growth if the industry remains down in that sort of 3% range. And then you also talked about being willing to deploy the balance sheet and cash flow to fill portfolio gaps. I know under Gavin, it was talked about as sort of a string of pearls approach. If you think that, given where the industry is, if we could be on the lookout for anything a little bit more sizable.

Yes. Thank you, Drew. Just a couple of comments, I think, on your few questions. So with the industry being where it is, I think we still see the pathway for delivering growth both on top and bottom line. If you look at this year, what's impacted is obviously category, but also on the COGS side, right, there's been so much volatility around inflation, Midwest premium, I know we've spoken about. So those are the, I would say, the headwinds we're dealing with this year. If you again go back to the pathway to get back to top line, I mean, in the U.S., I'd break down our portfolio maybe in 4 buckets. Strengthening core and economy becomes important. And these are big parts of our portfolio. And frankly, they are big parts of our distributor portfolio.

So making sure these parts of the portfolio are strong and healthy is important. And I would say we've done a decent job on share with our core brands, right? Our core brands is still higher share than 2022, but we have work to do on economy. But the runway we have in above premium is so much in beer and beyond beer, right? In beer, we are underindexed. I called out in my comments that we have work to do on Belgian White, Blue Moon, but Peroni is growing. Flavor is something that is volatile. We have some good success with our brands. But this year, we have some challenges with Simply. Topo is starting to get much stronger. And then the non-alc piece, right, Fever-Tree was a great add. It's an exciting brand for us. It's exciting brand for our network. So between the combination of that and along with our Canadian and Europe business, we can get our business back in low single-digit growth.

And then is obviously deploying capital, right? So your question of M&A. We want to make sure we deploy capital for brands that fill gaps in our portfolio, right? So I think that's important. Two, we want to be disciplined about it being accretive to both top and bottom line, right? So we're not going to chase top line just for the sake of top line. And then third is we want to do it in a way that is prudent from a balance sheet perspective and utilizing our balance sheet. So we stay committed to our investment-grade rating. We stay committed to our 2.5x leverage ratio, returning cash to shareholders, but we can deploy capital to really augment the portfolio and make sure we're making some changes that are meaningful to our total enterprise. So probably can't give you a specific number or size, but definitely going to lean in, in the right way of enabling total enterprise growth.

Our next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

I also actually wanted to ask 2 questions on the balance sheet or related to the balance sheet. Molson Coors has done, I think, a much better job relative to the history of kind of preparing the balance sheet to weather maybe some downturns or more structural cyclical headwinds. But 2 things I'd like to ask kind of, one, Tracey, I think there's -- this quarter, you moved into a relatively big bond maturity that's coming in the next 12 months, just maybe how we should think about addressing that, particularly as we start to contemplate '26.

And the second would be just on the impairment itself, again, relatively sizable hit to the balance sheet. Rahul, I think, understandably, you have to go through impairment testing, but in the context of cyclical versus structural, I would think this would lean more towards the structural end. So maybe you can help compare and contrast just what happened with the impairment charge relative to kind of your views on the overall industry.

Thank you, Peter. Let me have Tracey answer the bond maturity question and then I'll take your impairment question.

Thanks, Peter. So yes, we do have some debt coming due in 2026. And as with all our debt, we'll review that as we get closer to the due dates. I think the important thing is that we remain focused on maintaining our leverage ratio, as Rahul just said, in alignment with the target of being below 2.5x. And we are currently in that range. And we will make sure that going forward, we are in sort of below 2.5x. So closer to the time, we'll assess what we do with the debt. Thanks, Peter.

Yes. Thanks, Tracey. And Peter, I mean you're absolutely right. I mean we took the impairment charge to goodwill of about $3.6 billion in Q3. And so firstly, a number of factors that impacted, right. So obviously, this year's performance. There is a question about the outlook of our business. But the other factors that come in is discount rates, risk premium, and frankly, the multiple, right? So the way I think about this is we can get this business back to top and bottom line growth. We think we are very undervalued in the context of our market cap right now. Those are the things that we need to lean into and make sure we can demonstrate quarter-over-quarter. And this is something that, as you said, it's something we need to do every year and check ourselves to make sure we're thinking of the business in a prudent way and the impairment's a function of that.

Our next question comes from Bill Kirk with ROTH Capital Partners.

Rahul, I was hoping to get a little bit more on your vision for the business. You mentioned portfolio gaps a couple times. Do you think the gaps are more related to regions, are the gaps more like categories related or the gaps brand specific? And then maybe backing up even further, should the company's focus become more narrow or should the focus broaden and introduce new regions and categories?

Yes. Thank you, Bill. Definitely looking forward to sharing a lot more about the plans and how to think about that. But let me maybe break it down in maybe 3 different ways. So one is about portfolio. As you said, we have a pretty broad portfolio in the U.S. We have a great broad portfolio in Canada, even in Europe. And generally, we do believe all segments matter, right? So we do definitely need to work within that. Now how we work, the specific parts of the portfolio, I think that's where you see me highlighting some of the areas of opportunity we have.

Now in some parts we do have gaps, right? So I talk about the flavor part of our portfolio, right? So we have some gaps there we need to fill. We filled some gaps in beyond beer, in non-alc, right? So there is an element of both fixing some of the portfolio plays we have, filling some gaps. So that's, I would say, part one of the broad plan. The second part is execution, right? And I think all of you know, while beer is a global business and a national business, it is a very local business. So us executing as close as possible to customers and distributors and retailers is going to be super important. And that's not just in terms of just the sales function, right? It is about how we deploy our people resources, how we deploy our marketing resources has to be as close as possible to our consumers and customers. So there is definitely a difference in how we execute and take that, our brands, to market.

The third element, to your question, is capabilities. We have a strong foundation in our infrastructure, whether it's breweries, whether it's supply chain. But it is an area that we need to make sure we are keeping up with, either on the commercial side, whether it's on the technology side, optimizing our brewery footprint in the best possible way with making sure we can meet some of the needs of our new capabilities. So you're definitely going to see that, us leaning into that. And then capital deployment, right, our capital allocation approach, Tracey mentioned us wanting to be disciplined about that. So I would say those are the broad areas. Your question about being broader or narrow, we love the markets we are in. And we are in some of the best profit pools in the world. We just got to win in those. So that's how you're going to see us lean in on winning in the markets that we directly have a pretty strong foundation in.

Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

Rahul, so I wanted to ask about your experience working with and building the partnership with Coca-Cola, Fever-Tree and some of the non-alc initiatives like ZOA. Should we expect more initiatives like that from Molson Coors in the future, to your point, as a way to fill some gaps in a capital-efficient way? Or do you see still the opportunity for maybe more traditional acquisitions going forward? And then on the restructuring that you've announced recently, you indicated most of the charges, $35 million to $50 million will be in Q4. Can you provide some sense of the savings on a run rate basis going forward? And when should we expect those savings to flow through?

Thank you, Filippo. Let me talk about the portfolio and the partnership comments, and Tracey, if you can help on the restructuring piece. If you look at our portfolio, Filippo, I mean, we're definitely going to be focused on beer. I just want to make sure, that's been our roots and it's a big part and foundation of our business. So beer is always going to be super important and definitely leaning into that space.

In terms of partnerships and acquisitions, I think if you look at what we have done with both Coca-Cola, Fever-Tree, I think we've figured out a way of working with partners to really leverage our platform, leverage our infrastructure to scale brands. And I think I would say both of those partnerships have worked really well for our business. But in terms of deploying capital, I do think we continue to look at areas and opportunities to deploy capital to augment our portfolio.

So your question of whether we're going to do more partnerships versus more acquisitions, I think that is a function of how these opportunities come up. But you will see us leaning into spaces where we have gaps in the portfolio to fill, right? Maybe 3, 4 years ago, we didn't have the capital to deploy, but right now I think our balance sheet is in a strong way that we can do it in a disciplined way. So continue to focus on beer, continue to focus on some of the above premium agenda. But in the beyond beer space, we probably need to be both creative and deploy capital to fill some gaps. And Tracey, you want to...

Yes. Thanks, Filippo. So yes, in terms of cost savings, look, we haven't provided specific cost savings targets as we're still finalizing the details around this restructuring. What we have said though, you correctly say, we expect charges to be in the range of $35 million to $50 million. And they are expected to be the future cash expenditures over the next 12 months. Substantially, all of the charges are expected to be related to severance payments and post-employment benefits. But one thing in terms of the cost savings, look, a meaningful amount of the head count reductions was from the elimination of open positions in 2025. So we wouldn't expect to get a full benefit in 2026 because we did have the open head count as we prioritized our costs in 2025. So that's from sort of a cost savings point of view. But look, we do intend to redeploy some of the savings to invest behind our brands, to invest behind our commercial capabilities as Rahul has said, both in commercial and in supply chain and in technology to support the ongoing productivity and efficiencies around our business.

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

Great. I guess these are probably 2 follow-ups to much of what you've just recently discussed. On the restructuring, I'm curious, you spoke about how this is going to make the Americas organization faster, more nimble, more agile. Just curious as to exactly how the restructuring will enable that increased speed, number one.

And then number two, Rahul, you've talked a lot about the portfolio in beer versus beyond beer. I'm just -- I'm still struggling to really conceptualize the balance of those investments in your mind. Clearly, it's a game of and. And as you described them, both are important. But just again, that balance, beer, obviously, the bigger business, investments to drive premiumization seem to be a core part of the vision. But -- so do you see beyond beer as the bigger growth driver going forward? I'm trying to figure that out. And if so, how does that influence your investment prioritization, broader capital allocation, et cetera?

Thank you, Steve. So maybe address both your different questions. One is about restructuring and portfolio. So if you think about going back to what I said about customer and consumer focus, we wanted to make sure that the leaders driving that agenda had a seat around the table, right? So whether it's U.S. sales, whether it's our marketing leadership, whether it's the Canadian leadership, we needed to make sure that in a land where category -- we're challenged in the category, right?

I mean we talked about minus 3s, minus 4s to minus 6. We need to be getting much closer to how we execute in the front end of our business. So it starts from that thesis of making sure we can bring these leaders around the table, really make sure we're executing with speed, we're pivoting where we need to. We're being reasonably focused where we need to. And it's also about shifting our resources, internal, both people and marketing dollars, where we see the opportunities, right?

So that requires us to be, I would say, a lot more quicker, lot more nimble. And it starts with, obviously, leaders having the ability to drive that. The other part I obviously talked about briefly was around making sure we can enable our teams who are closest to the markets to make those decisions, right? And so how do we drive both decision-making and accountability as close to the markets as possible? So I think those are the 2 few principles that we've used, and that's the -- what we're trying to drive in terms of the restructure changes, both in the U.S. and in Canada, in making sure we can execute faster because, yes, we are in a category context that is challenged.

In terms of portfolio, I'd break it up in 2 different ways. One is around marketing dollars, investment and then about balance sheet deployment of capital, Steve. You're going to see us continue making sure we have the right pressure against our big brands. So whether that's Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet, things like Peroni, Blue Moon. So those are important brands that we believe have so much potential and make sure we are winning in the beer landscape. So you will see us continue being super focused on those and making sure we have the right marketing pressure around it.

In terms of beyond beer, we do want to make it big enough that it starts having an impact to our total enterprise. I would say we are still early in that journey. And that's where I would say the balance sheet comes in to help us a little bit on making sure we have the right portfolio. In terms of what the right balance is between beer and beyond beer, Steve, I think more to come on that piece. But the way I would think about investment is making sure we have the right marketing pressure against our big brands but making sure we can use the balance sheet to augment our portfolio, add some scale brands that we can really use as a foundation in the beyond beer space.

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Congrats, Gavin and Rahul, both. Just want to come back to a couple things. You touched on needing to win in economy. You touched on in your opening remarks, just wanted to focus a little more on High Life and Keystone. Can you maybe touch on why you think you might not have been winning there already and whether it's maybe an innovation issue, a price issue, just not enough marketing? What more maybe should we expect looking ahead?

And then just a follow-up on the goodwill. You touched on how it is impacted by -- the assessment process is impacted by this past year's results and evidently has a bit of a backwards look but also seems to reflect an outlook ahead. And maybe what is kind of the balance there, and how much is it more a function of what's happened already or what you think is to come?

Thank you, Michael. So again, just let me talk about the economy portfolio and then add a few comments. And Tracey, anything else you would like to add on the goodwill. But if you -- I would go back to a couple of ways to think about the economy portfolio. First is a consumer lens, right? Consumer, I think you and everybody is aware, I mean the consumer from a staples perspective is special. And so for us, making sure we have a portfolio that can meet our consumers in every occasion. In this category, in beer, we definitely don't see trade down from a brand perspective, but we have brands that consumers love like High Life, like Keystone, like Pilsner in Canada, et cetera, right?

So we have a broad economy portfolio that consumers really love and this is big, Michael. I mean this is a big part of our portfolio in terms of scale and volume. And it's -- frankly, it's a big part of our customers' portfolio. So making sure that we're doing the right things of keeping it as healthy as possible is super important. So the things you talked about, all of that matters, right, whether it's the right level of marketing, the right level of innovation, right? Again, brought price back in that part of the portfolio. And I would call out the regional element of it, right? So this is -- our portfolio is very regional, and we need to make sure that we are winning in a very, very regional way with all of that.

So probably less -- slightly different the way we think about Coors Light, Miller Lite, Banquet, which are big national brands that need to win in different ways. The focus on economy is, I would say, in a -- for solving a different purpose. To your point about goodwill, it is a function of this year's performance. It's a function of discount rates, multiple. But yes, it does have a view of the outlook, right, again, versus what we had previously. And I think that was informed by this year's both category performance and outperformance. So I would say those are the big drivers. But as you know math in these things, discount rates and multiples have a big impact on some of these elements. So Tracey, anything else?

No, I think you've basically covered it, Rahul. Just maybe an added thing in terms of the current outlook is the cost, particularly driven by the Midwest premium. We have seen that now in October being the highest level ever with potential more increases coming. So that was also a part of the outlook for our costs. But having said that, look, we remain confident in the resilience of the beer industry. And also, as Rahul has said, our ability to return to both top and bottom line growth.

Our next question comes from Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

Great. Congratulations to you, Rahul, and to Gavin, and best of luck. So I guess the question I'd like to try to approach, Rahul, is to get a sense of your mandate from the Board and what -- how much freedom do -- is the board giving you to the sense that if you wanted to make significant changes, is kind of everything on the table? No sacred cows and that kind of approach, so something that may be a departure from the past. Or is the mandate from the Board more like just kind of stay the course, tweak things around the edges, improve execution here and there. But basically, let's weather this storm and keep kind of plugging forward. So just really just trying to get a sense of kind of how those discussions went and what range of freedom you feel that you have to create shareholder value here.

Thanks for the question, yes. I would say we definitely -- our Board is always focused on what's the best thing for all shareholders, right? I mean, that's definitely the lens. And frankly, I don't -- there is no sacred cows. I mean, I think they've given us -- given me the freedom to say, let's make sure we have a plan that can drive the most shareholder value, and that's what we are -- is what I'm leading for. So yes, there are no sacred cows. There's no constraints. I think you and everybody on this call understands the challenges there are in the category.

I know there's been a lot written about our portfolio. So I mean all of that is real, and that's the context to work within. But in terms of the direction from the Board, it is about driving, maximizing shareholder value in the best possible way we can. So definitely don't feel any constraint, definitely be no sacred cows. I think the tricky part, and some of your colleagues asked this question, right, a category is going through a tricky time this year. Again, I go back to, we are in great geographies with big profit pools. But yes, it comes with a different shape of category health.

And those are all reality context, but it doesn't take away from the opportunities we have for our portfolio. So I think that's the best way. And again, that's why you see me talk about even the balance sheet and while we're committed to returning cash to shareholders, we're going to find the right ideas to deploy capital to get ourselves back to top and bottom line growth also. So yes, no, I understand the question, Rob, but no constraints here from the Board or anybody else.

Our next question comes from Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley.

And congratulations again to Gavin and Rahul. Rahul, hoping you can talk a little bit more about the overall level of investment and capabilities, your comfort with the current level. I know you talked about having the right marketing pressure behind the brands. But if you look a little bit more broadly, investment, obviously, is more broad than marketing support. As we look at the organization, it's come a long way in terms of capabilities since 2019 and the revitalization plan, are there areas either that need increased investment or where you need to further build out capabilities, either from an OpEx or CapEx standpoint from here?

Thank you, Eric. And yes, no, I would break out the capabilities in probably maybe 3 broad buckets, right? So one is our supply chain, wanting to make sure that we have the right level of CapEx that gets -- drives the right ROI, but also builds capabilities in our infrastructure. So again, give you an example, and I know we've spoken about this in the last few years, is things like variety packing and things like having the ability to do flavors in our breweries. These things were never possible maybe 5 years ago. And this is investment that we've made to change these capabilities in our infrastructure, right?

So making sure we have the right level of CapEx, right, which is -- will be important. So I think that's one thing we're going to continue to look at. So supply chain continues to be an area of making sure we have strong capabilities. Again, outside CapEx and supply chain, it seems like optimization of logistics and transportation costs, right? So some of the new tools and technology, et cetera, can enable us to do that. The other one is commercial capabilities, right? So if you think about our market share in the United States, but our category captaincy is significantly higher than the market share we have. And that means we are playing a role in driving that capability with our retailers. So that, again, goes back to examples of capabilities.

And then the last part is technology. Both in terms of baseline technology needs with some of the new capabilities around AI and how do we leverage that with our infrastructure. So we're going to continue focusing on these areas. I think your question around what's the right level of investment, I think, again, more to come on that as we think about our total business. But the lens we usually have on this is, what is it driving for our business, right? Is it productivity? Is it efficiency? Is it enabling the top line? So being very clear on all the KPIs or metrics that we use to make sure that these investments are returning something to the business. So while we will focus on capabilities, it is from a lens of productivity, efficiency or to enable top and bottom line.

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with BNP Paribas.

Great. Rahul, a question -- 2 questions for me, actually, kind of pulling together some of the themes that we've talked about and that is your assessment of the company's cost structure more broadly, particularly from a supply chain and brewery optimization perspective. So the company made some difficult choices at the corporate level. But as the volume outlook has certainly become quite a bit more challenging, perhaps the company's fixed cost structure is not appropriately sized for kind of the new realities if you will. So one, do you view that as a fair assessment? And two, in light of one of the questions earlier on investment levels, do you view incremental productivity as an enabler to support higher investment levels? Or would incremental investment be a near-term drag on margins?

Thank you, Kevin. So let me address your first thing around the brewery one. And the second one, I just want to make sure I got your question right. But on the brewery stuff -- on our brewery infrastructure, I mean, we're always looking at ways of making our brewery network efficient, right? And you've seen some of the actions we've taken in the past. A couple of things I'd call out as we think about our brewery infrastructure. One is around transportation costs, right, and making sure that we are looking at brewery infrastructure in the context of transportation. The other part is the seasonality of our business, right?

So seasonality in terms of summer and making sure we think about that. So to answer your question broadly, yes, we're absolutely going to be thinking about all the elements of our fixed cost base. Right now, I don't believe we need to be closing a brewery. I think we need to be smart about how we think about lines, in particular breweries where we produce what product. How do we get smarter about some of the efficiency in terms of moving our brands around. I think that's how we think about it. But fair question as we think about the volume outlook and what that does, but cost thing will always be a focus for us, whether it's on the fixed side, whether it's on the G&A side, I think that priority and focus will, I would say, always remain.

Your question about do we need investment to drive productivity, I think that was the theme of the question. I don't believe we need some high, elevated levels of investment to drive productivity. I think we need to look at our CapEx in the right way and be checking ourselves to make sure we get the right ROI. We need to make sure that the investment we have in people, technology is driving the right returns. But I don't believe -- I think your question was, do I see or expect a big spike in investment to drive productivity? I think that -- I don't believe I see that right now. I think marketing, again, I want to make sure we have the right pressure against our brands, again, but check -- test ourselves to make sure we're getting the right return on the marketing, right? So hopefully, I answered, Kevin, both your questions in terms of fixed costing and the investment profile.

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

Hey, everybody. Congratulations all around. Also, I think congratulations to Eric Serotta who might have been the first analyst to pronounce your name correctly. You'll find name pronunciation to be a thing on many of these calls. You're getting the same question, I guess, over and over again around the restructuring and investment levels. And I think a lot of that is because, in many instances, when an industry is struggling and has struggled for over a decade, we see bigger restructurings, bigger savings at the time of management change, and what's been announced so far seems small. So just curious, is this just the first step and there's bigger restructuring to come? Or is it sort of everything's in place now and it's time to go?

Kaumil, thanks for the question. I think I know I'm keen to also talk about our total plan and I look forward to sharing that in the coming months, right? I mean we definitely -- if you think about our business, and you said this, with respect to long-term trends, making sure we are looking at our cost base in the right way. I think we're going to look at everything. The piece that we took action on in the short term in the last 30 days was to make sure we are set up well in the Americas for 2026. So I would say more to come as we think about all the elements of the plan. Cost and efficiency is another element that is super important. But we were trying to move with pace as we think about setting ourselves up in the Americas for 2026.

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

One thing I wanted to go back to was just in the prepared remarks, Rahul, when you commented on -- I'm just going to find the quote again, on the commercial changes. I know you, in answer to Steve's question, you talked a little bit about org structure. But you also talked about deploying marketing based on market dynamics and portfolio priorities. And I just was curious, like what were you doing before? Because that sounds like I would think that's what's already happening. So I'm just curious how you maybe compare and contrast, and what it is that needs to change?

Yes. Thank you, Lauren. And absolutely fair question. I think the way I would think about this is how do we react faster to the external market dynamics, right? I mean if you look at our brands, while we have big national brands, they play different roles regionally. They operate in terms of market share we have in each state or each region is different. And we need to just find ways of being -- deploying our internal resources in a stronger way. The added part -- and some of this we were doing, right? But again, the pieces I would say is different or will be different is in the context of accountability. How do we make sure our decision-making is as close to those markets as possible? How do we make sure we can shift both people and dollar resources closest to that decision-making? And I think that those are the changes that would feel different for our teams, how we operate, how we engage with our distributor network, Lauren.

So I think it is things I would say we were doing, but we just need to lean in harder given how the category has changed, right? I mean if you look at even regional performance, I know we talk about the national performance of the category. The category is performing very differently in different parts of this country, and we need to make sure we're pivoting to that, both from a resource perspective, from a brand perspective, that's where the economy context comes into conversation, right? Because some of our economy brands are very big in particular geographies. And if we are not putting the right focus on those, that's -- the whole growth algorithm becomes very hard to make happen. So those -- I would say those are the big highlights I would call out, Lauren, to your question.

Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

I'd like to come back to some of the cyclical pressures that you called out in the prepared remarks. And in particular, what are you seeing in terms of consumer sentiment for your consumers in Q3? And to the extent that you can comment on this in October, I appreciate the prepared remarks you made, but are there any internal surveys or analytics that you're able to share about what's driving consumer behavior today? And how does that help you be more confident in your statement that the incremental pressure we're seeing today is firmly cyclical as opposed to structural?

Yes. Nadine, again, I understand the question, but -- so if I address it in maybe a few added points to give you some context or at least how we're seeing it. I mean, if you go again back to pre-'25, I mean, some of these trends have been with us as the beer category for a long time, right, whether it's health and wellness, whether it's generational change, whether it's people making choices around alcohol. I think that some of those have been -- we and everybody in the industry have known about those.

And if you look at the category historically, used to be in the minus 1, 2. In the last few years, it's in minus 3-ish range. This year, I would say there's been definitely added pressure. And you see that across staples and beer hasn't been immune to that. So whether that is impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment, if it is the focus on the Hispanic community, any of those elements. So I do believe that has had a different type of an impact to the beer category this year. And that's where, once we've got through these macro issues, then we need to get back to those baseline levels of how we think about the category and then making sure we're winning in that category.

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

I'm trying to summarize all of the commentary about the regional execution versus the national marketing of your brands. And I just want to make sure I understand, like you have Coors Light and Miller Lite, your 2 biggest brands. Is it your view that, on a national level, that the marketing of those brands has been just fine? Because there's been multiyear share losses of those. One of your competitors has made great inroads in the light category, probably at their expense. So is there -- do you think that the national marketing of those brands is doing just fine? And really, it's just the regional execution could improve and that's the way to stabilize?

No, thank you for that question. We definitely think there's opportunities for us as we think about how these brands show up. If you think about the work we are doing on Miller Lite with 50-year campaign. I think -- and if you look at share losses of Coors Light versus -- in Q3 versus Q2. So definitely that's something we're looking at of the national campaigns for our big brands and how do we lean into it differently, how we think about it going forward. And I'd just point you -- pointed out to Coors Banquet, right? I mean I think it's a brand that has really met a consumer need, has resonated with consumers. We've obviously executed well in the context of distribution gains. But absolutely focused on making sure we've got the right campaigns for Coors Light and Miller Lite. And I think you'll see some of that play out as -- with live sports in the coming months.

Our final question today comes from Gerald Pascarelli with Needham & Co.

Rahul, I guess, just going back to some of the prior commentary on this call and to summarize, is it fair to assume or expect that bolt-on M&A or a more aggressive push into beyond beer ultimately becomes a more important part or a larger part of the capital allocation strategy looking forward? And then for Tracey, just going back to the Midwest premium, it's obviously been increasing $0.81 per pound. I know there's like less than 2 months left in the year. But if the premium continues to spike, is there a spot price threshold for us to be mindful of that could potentially put your PBT guidance at risk for the year? Any color there would be great.

Yes. Thank you, Gerald, for that. If you look at M&A and deployment of capital, we have a pretty strong beer portfolio across the world, right? I mean we continue to fill some gaps in that. But the places where we need to fill some gaps are probably in the beyond beer. So in terms of deploying capital, you will see us probably lean in a lot more on the beyond beer space than the beer space. But if there are ideas that make sense that augment our business and drive top and bottom line growth, we're going to look at that. But I think broadly speaking, I think your assessment of deploying M&A dollars in beyond beer is probably the right way to think about it. Tracey, you want to address the Midwest premium question?

Yes. So Gerald, look, I mean, we've spoken about the Midwest premium a lot. And as you rightly say, it just continues to increase and hit an all-time high in October, potentially going much higher. Now we do have an extensive hedging program that operates sort of there's a blend between structured as well as where we use opportunistic depending on the markets. We're able to hedge out multiple years. And really the objective is to smooth out the impacts of any unfavorable swings in commodities and in ForEx. But as it relates specifically to the Midwest premium, look, we do have coverage, and we do follow the guardrails in our program. But as I've said before, it's a very difficult and very expensive commodity to hedge. Its pricing does not follow conventional market ebbs and flows, and liquidity is limited. And so it continues to be a headwind for us. And we do try and eliminate the volatility through hedging. But at the levels that it is, there's no sort of reason for that. So we'll just continue to track it and do what we can in terms of trying to mitigate the volatility that we do see in that commodity.

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer period. You may now disconnect.