Neinor Homes Stock

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Neinor Homes First Half 2026 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jose Cravo, Head of Capital Markets and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hi. Good morning, everyone. My name is Jose Cravo, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Neinor Homes. Today, we're going to go over results for the first semester of the year 2026. And as usual, we are here with Jordi Argemi that is taking the role as the new CEO; Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, our Departing CEO; and Mario Lapiedra, our CIO.

We will start the presentation with the key highlights in Section 1. Then on Section 2, we will provide an update on the Spanish residential market. On Section 3 and 4, we will review operational and financial results. And on Section 5, we finish with the key takeaways. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session to answer any questions you may have.

Now I'll hand over the presentation to our CEO, Jordi Argemi.

Thanks, Jose. Before I begin, I would like to thank the Board of Directors and the shareholders for my appointment as CEO and for the trust they have placed in me. In my view, after several years in which we have consolidated our position as the undisputed leader of the Spanish residential market, this company has never been stronger.

We have the full backing of our stakeholders, a track record that speaks for itself and a demonstrated capacity to raise capital in both public and private markets. In my view, these strengths will be the key to lead the company into the next phase of growth. And I couldn't be prouder of what we have done in the last few years and more ambitious about what comes next.

With that said, let's start with the presentation in Slide #4. Starting with the context, the first half of this year has been tricky. We have integrated AEDAS against a backdrop of real geopolitical uncertainty with the war in the Middle East and volatile energy prices. Through all of it, this company has done an exceptional work, and I would like to thank every single person in Neinor Homes for keeping the focus after a big acquisition such as AEDAS.

Now 4 big messages today. First, the market. The fundamentals held through uncertainty, resilient growth, the healthiest household balance sheet in decades and a market still pretty short of homes. We will show you in a minute why Spain continues to be one of the best residential markets in the world.

Second, execution. We have integrated AEDAS, the largest acquisition in our history and in the sector. And in just 4 months, we have done it with 0 disruption on the deliveries, construction, commercialization or IT systems. It is true that we have a strong track record based on Quabit and Habitat transactions, but AEDAS is a different animal due to the size. Third message, the financials.

We have operated a step change in scale without disruption, and the year-on-year figures demonstrated clearly. But this was not growth for the sake of growth. Margins remain very solid, and this translated into strong cash flow generation; strong enough to accelerate our shareholder remuneration targets for the year, buy out the AEDAS minorities after the second tender offer and pay back EUR 100 million of Apollo's debt ahead of schedule, all of it in less than 6 months.

And fourth and last one, the guidance. We already reiterated in April in our AGM and today, with the first semester closed, our visibility over those objectives keeps on growing. In my view, the best answer to uncertainty is delivery. And in this first half, we have delivered once again. If we move to next slide, it shows the whole company on one page. And the story this slide tells is both scale and growth.

With AEDAS fully integrated, every single KPI has stepped up. On the operational side, we have a land bank of nearly 37,000 units, out of which 23,000 are fully owned and 19,000 active units under production, giving us years of visibility and tangible cash flow generation. Commercialization is well advanced with a record order book of 9,300 units worth EUR 3.3 billion, half of the total active units.

On the financials, we delivered close to 2,400 units, also record and generated EUR 680 million of revenues. But as you know, volume is one thing and profitability another. Our priority has always been to translate execution into profitability to have better returns for our shareholders.

In that sense, the first semester, we have kept strong underlying margins, driving an EBITDA of EUR 119 million. Overall, every metric is materially higher than a year ago. That is the accretive impact of AEDAS, flowing through the business in record time and better than our initial expectations. We will review it in detail later on.

Now let me hand over to Borja, who is going to comment on the market.

Thank you, Jordi. Good morning, everyone. As always, let me start by giving the big picture. And my message is the same one I have been giving you. Spain remains one of the safest and strongest residential markets, not only in Europe, but in the world. This semester, that message was tested once again.

We have a war in the Middle East, energy prices moving up and plenty of geopolitical noise. And yet look at the chart on the top right. In January, the consensus for Spanish GDP growth this year was 2.2%. Today, after 6 months of geopolitical uncertainty, it stands at 2.3%. That is nearly 4x the Eurozone average of 0.6% and well ahead of the U.K. and Germany.

And one of the reasons behind this growth has been, without a doubt, the job market and the private consumption in Spain. Year-to-date, the Spanish economy has created more than 600,000 jobs, taking social security affiliates to an all-time record of 22.4 million people. More people working and living in Spain means more households and therefore, more demand for housing.

Having said this, if there is one variable where we have felt the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, it has been inflation, which accelerated to 3.2% in June. This is mainly the conflict feeding through energy prices, a supply side effect not overheating demand. So the takeaway from this slide is simple.

The Spanish macro has been extremely resilient. Please let's move to Slide #8. On the Slide #7, I showed you the demand. On this slide, I want to show the quality of that demand because a strong economy is one thing, but what makes a housing market truly resilient is the strength of the balance sheets behind it.

And here, Spain is a class of its own. Household debt stands at just 43% of GDP, the lowest level in more than 20 years and among the lowest in Europe. Look at the chart in the right. In 2008, Spanish households were among the most indebted. Today, we are below Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. That is 43% points deleveraging since the year 2010 peak. Mortgage debt tells the same story, the dash line.

It has halved since the peak to a record low of 30% of GDP. Meanwhile, families keep saving. The savings rate remains high at over 11%. And on financing, yes, the Euribor has moved up by around 0.8 points, close to 2.9%. But mortgage rates in Spain remain very competitive at around 2.5% and 3%. So put it together, low leverage, high savings, cheap fixed rate financing for 30 years.

This is why Spanish demand is resilient to shocks. When rates move, our buyers do not break because they were not stretched to begin with. Please follow me to Slide #9. So far, I have shown you the demand and the strength of the balance sheets behind it. Now let's look at the other side, supply. This is where the Spanish opportunity becomes truly structural. The message is simple and well-known.

Spain does not build enough houses, and it hasn't done it for over a decade. Spain is building less than 90,000 units per year. At the 2008 peak, Spain built nearly 600,000 houses. We are 85% below that level. And look at the chart. Since 2020, housebuilding remains almost flat. Demand is booming, but supply has not responded. So the key question is why?

And there are 2 structural reasons. The first is land. There is not enough fully land permitted. Madrid is the clearest example. New supply has fallen 25% since 2021, simply because permitted land is scarce. The second is the structure of the market. The Spanish residential market is [ extremely ] fragmented. It is dominated by small local developers. These are not institutional players.

They lack scale. And critically, many of them, they lack access to bank financing for construction. So even when demand is there, even when land exists, much of the market cannot fund the CapEx to build at reasonable costs. This is the heart of the opportunity, a structural shortage driven by fragmentation and limited access to capital. It is a market that needs an institutional grade, well-capitalized platform to build at scale.

That is exactly what Neinor is. And in today's market, that is our competitive advantage. Now let me put the numbers together. According to the Bank of Spain, since 2021, Spain has accumulated a deficit of 750,000 homes, and the gap keeps widening. In the first quarter alone, households grew by 56,000. Moreover, this week, the Spanish Statistics Institute released its population forecast for the upcoming years.

And in the next 15 years, the Spanish population is expected to grow by more than 4 million people. More households forming and not enough homes being built. This is not cyclical. It is structural, and it does not correct quickly. Please follow me now to Slide #10. So let me bring this section together. Think about what I have just shown you. Demand is strong. Balance sheets are healthy and supply is structurally short.

Put those 3 together, and you would expect one thing, significant increases in home prices. But that is not what happened in Spain. And this slide is, for me, the most important of the section. Look at the chart. This is how prices since 2005, indexes across 4 countries. You see in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S., home prices have nearly doubled. Spain isn't anywhere close to it. And here is the key figure.

In real terms, adjusted for inflation, Spanish prices are still 21% below the 2007 peak. Since the [ trough ] in 2014, prices have grown 60% in nominal terms, but just 24% in real terms. So the growth has been real but disciplined. Coming back to the beginning, the Spanish residential market after the global financial crisis is significantly smaller, but much, much healthier.

And this is where Slide #8 connects. Prudent bank lending has kept demand disciplined, no excesses. Looking forward, our view is clear. Demand is resilient, supply is constrained, credit is disciplined. And with this context, we expect prices to keep rising in the following years at around 5% per year, not a spike, sustained structural growth, exactly the environment in which we operate the best.

With that, let me hand back to Jordi.

Thank you, Borja. Clearly, the market backdrop is strong. Now let's turn to Section #3, where I will comment the operational results. The event of this semester has been the integration of AEDAS. The headline is simple. We have completed it in 4 months with 0 disruption to deliveries. Regarding the time line, in March, we closed the second tender offer, increasing our stake to 97%.

In April and May, we executed the key organizational changes, mainly in operations, the investment team and human resources. And by June, the integration was complete. In a business of this size, in my view, that's exceptional. Why it went so well? Basically 3 points. First, a proven playbook.

This is our third relevant integration after Quabit and Habitat, and this one increased our land bank by more than 60% in a single step. Second, the integration is fully derisked. We took control of construction sites and commercialization without any interruption. Accounting, financing, IT and management control are onboarded. There is no pending integration risk left on the table.

Third, we came out of it stronger. Alberto Delgado from AEDAS has been appointed Group COO, leading operations together with Gabriel Sanchez, our Chief Business Officer. We have kept the best people and reinforced the team. That is how we integrate for the long-term. And the chart on the right is the proof. Through an integration of this scale, deliveries didn't slip.

We delivered close to 2,400 units in the first half, which is around 40% of our full year guidance, right on track. And the most important point, we divest for the returns and have written at a 20% IRR and 1.8x invested capital. And everything we have seen since closing has confirmed those assumptions.

Now, follow me to Slide #13. If Slide 12 was about execution, this slide is about visibility. For me, the most important operational slide in the presentation. The headline, I said before, 2,400 units already delivered and almost 19,000 units currently under production with a very significant degree of execution embedded.

Three numbers from it, an active portfolio of 18,933 units, a record order book of 9,300 units worth EUR 3.3 billion, close to half of that portfolio and 13,400 units in work in progress or finished, 71% of it. Now let's focus on the charts. On the left, presales coverage by delivery year. In 2026, 89% already presold. In 2027, 78%. And in 2028, 2 years out, it's 43%. These ratios are 6 months ahead of our standard business plan [indiscernible], and that changes the strategy for the second semester. Being this far ahead, we are shifting the focus on capturing further HPA.

On the right-hand side, you have the construction coverage. Everything we plan to deliver in 2026 and 2027 is already under construction. And 2028 is already moving, more than 50% as of today with turnkey agreements in place. So as conclusion, developments are being built and sold years in advance.

We have strong visibility, and this give us confidence to reiterate our guidance. Please follow me to Slide 14. Now a question we get in almost every meeting. What about construction cost? With the situation in the Middle East, cost inflation is once again a key focus for investors. Let me answer this question from 2 different angles.

The theory, I mean, margin sensitivity to higher cost and our real track record. Regarding the theory, take our selling price as 100%. Hard cost that basically means labor and materials are only 45% of that price. The only 55% is land, other cost and margin. Because hard costs are less than half the price, a small move in price offsets a much larger move in cost.

Basically, 1 point of selling price offsets 2 points of total cost inflation and 4 points of material inflation. Right now, we are anticipating mid- to high single-digit inflation driven by materials and a price increase of around 5%, as Borja said before, fully offset this impact. Now our track record, the chart on the right.

The black line is construction cost inflation, up 85% since 2015. Labor cost, supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, one shock after another. The red line is our gross margin. Through all shocks, it has been consistently above 24% to 25% guidance. So cost up 85% and margins helped. That is the result of pricing power and healthy affordability in the Spanish market, especially in our mid-high segment. So we remain comfortable with our margin outlook for the upcoming years and reiterate our 24% to 25% gross margin.

Now let me hand over to Mario to review the investment activity of the first half of the year.

Thank you, Jordi. After having a look to the operational area, now I'm going to explain how we keep growing as part of our equity efficient strategy. Remember what we said at the beginning, good margins are not enough. The goal is to turn good margins into better returns for shareholders.

And the way we do that is through smarter uses of capital through Neinor Asset Management. The best example this semester is Rio Real, a new Luxury segment JV with Stoneshield of around EUR 120 million through the monetization of our strategic asset. We crystallize value today, accelerate cash flows and keep managing the asset, maximizing returns with a fraction of the equity. And this is not the first time.

We did exactly the same with Joaquin Lorenzo asset together with AXA back in 2023 and with Orion, Santander AM or Ameris Capital in 2024. That is the model, proven and repeatable. Behind the model, we have reinforced the engine. With the AEDAS acquisition team fully integrated, our investment team has tripled in size with specialized teams across 3 verticals: Corporate Transactions, Granular Build-to-Sell and Alternative Living and Affordable.

More origination capacity, more diversification, more deals we can look at, at the same time. And one more effect worth naming. With the acquisition of AEDAS, our largest competitor disappears, one less rival bidding for every plot of land, every portfolio, every deal. Now the numbers on the right side.

Year-to-date, we have closed circa EUR 180 million of investments, roughly half and half, EUR 90 million on Neinor's balance sheet EUR 90 million through joint ventures. Of that, around EUR 160 million in Build-to-Sell, some 850 units, plus a new Flex Living project of around EUR 15 million.

And the pipeline keeps building, more than EUR 350 million under analysis, EUR 150 million in Granular Build-to-Sell and EUR 200 million in Alternative Living and Affordable projects. So the message is simple. We are not just delivering this year's results. We are deploying capital with discipline with partners and with less equity per euro of growth that is the engine for the years ahead.

Now I hand over the presentation back to Jordi to review financials.

Thanks, Mario. Now before we jump into the financials, one more announcement, a special one for me. I want to give a very warm welcome to our new CFO, Aiala Zubiaur. Aiala has been with this company for more than 10 years, and I'm truly honored that she is the one taking over my role as CFO.

Aiala will be with us for the full year results. Today, as part of the transition, I will cover the financial section one last time. So let's move into Section #4. Now the numbers. First column, what we have delivered; second, our guidance. As you will see, every line is on track. Deliveries, as said many times, 2,400 units. This compares to the full year guidance ranging 5,000 to 7,000.

Revenues reached EUR 680 million, EUR 632 million comes from the development business and EUR 28 million comes from ancillary divisions, mainly our own construction unit. And I would like to highlight that there are EUR 20 million coming from the Asset Management business, already more than what we recorded in the whole year 2025. So very strong growth in our core business line as well as in Asset Management business and a fulfillment of 40% of our annual objectives. This figure excludes EUR 100 million from the sale of Rio Real expected to be concluded during the second half of this year.

Now profitability; in the first half, we have recorded EUR 187 million of gross profit. That means 27.6% gross margin. EBITDA recorded has been EUR 119 million and 2 aspects here to highlight. First, on our cost structure. Overheads are close to EUR 40 million as we start to realize some synergies.

But remember, for us, the critical element of the underwriting is delivery and execution, not cutting cost. Second, a EUR 10 million positive contribution from profits realized in the Asset Management business. This mainly relates to the sale of La Termica project, which was not assumed in the business plan and where we had a 20% stake.

Then at the bottom line of the P&L, you can see we earned EUR 54 million. And 3 concepts here to take into consideration versus the previous years. First, a relevant increase in one-offs. This is mainly due to the purchase price allocation of AEDAS acquisition, EUR 30 million recorded in the first half.

But remember that this is purely accounting with no cash impact. Second, financial expenses have materially increased to EUR 40 million, and this compares to EUR 10 million of last year. This is mainly due to the Apollo EUR 750 million senior secured notes. And as said at the beginning, we have started to repay this bond sooner than the original calendar, EUR 66 million already repaid and another EUR 33 million to be executed soon.

Actually, it will come tomorrow. We took this decision given the strong cash flow generation and excess cash available. And third, higher tax expenses. The Apollo notes expenses sit at the holding level, while profits are generated at the development companies, so we cannot generate the tax shield.

This fiscal inefficiency was already factored into the business plan, and we are working on alternatives to optimize it. Overall, the key message is that we are completely on track to achieve the net income target of EUR 120 million to EUR 140 million, which once again is adjusted for one-offs.

Finally, net debt, broadly flat at EUR 1,166 million in the first 6 months. There are a couple of impacts that are relevant. On one side, we have distributed close to EUR 170 million of dividends. And on the other side, we have registered the second tender offer over AEDAS, which has implied an investment of around EUR 200 million.

So basically, we have funded 70% of the year's shareholder remuneration, increased our stake in AEDAS to 97% and began repaying the Apollo notes ahead of schedule, and net debt stayed broadly flat. It shows a strong cash generation of this business. With that, we reiterate every single target for 2026, deliveries, revenues, EBITDA, net income and net debt. With that said, please follow me to the last slide of this presentation, the key takeaways.

Let me close with 4 messages that summarize the investment case of this company. First, the market; strong structural fundamentals and a persistent supply shortage. As Borja showed before, demand is healthy. Balance sheets are strong, and Spain simply doesn't build enough homes.

And all this in a fragmented market with limited access to capital. Our scale is our real competitive advantage. Second, guidance. We reiterate every target for 2026, and we do it with multiyear visibility, almost 19,000 units under production, nearly half of them already sold. 2026 and 2027 are largely built and sold. It's not a forecast. It is a portfolio with significant execution embedded.

Third, cash flow, strong underlying margins maintained through the largest acquisition in our history and that converts into cash. This semester, we funded 70% of the year shareholder remuneration, increased our idle stake, and we began repaying the Apollo's note in advance with net debt broadly flat.

And fourth, growth, further growth ahead, powered by an expanding Asset Management platform, more scale, more partners, less equity per euro of growth, that means higher returns. So to summarize the semester in one line, we have integrated the largest acquisition in our history, delivered record results and strengthened our visibility for the years ahead, all at the same time. Thank you very much for your attention.

And now we are happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Ignacio Dominguez from JB Capital.

I have a question on gross margins. Looking specifically at the pure Build-to-Sell development business, what gross development margin do you expect in the second half? And given the strong mix seen in the first half, do you expect your mix to remain strong in the second half? Thank you.

I take it. I mean you know that our guidance for the full year is always the same 24%, 25%. It's true that in the first semester, we are above. That's a reality. It's also true that when you look at the past, our track record despite our guidance has been always same 24%, 25%, we get an extra margin of 1%, 2%.

So let's see how we end the year. I think that there are still a lot of challenges operationally speaking, I mean, a lot of deliveries to be done in the second semester. We prefer to be cautious and keep that 24%, 25% and keep that upside risk for the year-end if we are able to get it.

And our next question comes from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.

I have a few, please. First, on land sales. So can you give us more details around the EUR 100 million disposal to Stoneshield? When do you expect this to be closed in H2 or I mean, what is pending for this to be closed? And also linked to land disposals in the AGM, you mentioned you wanted to sell around EUR 400 million cumulative in '26 and '27. So what is the visibility on this today?

And also, should we assume EUR 100 million this year, EUR 300 million next year? So any comment on this would also be helpful. Second, on the Apollo's loans. So you've [ only ] repaid EUR 100 million out of the EUR 750 million. I don't know if you have -- maybe you can comment on any internal objective you may have of new repurchases in the near future, just to try to see how can we model the financial cost going forward?

Third, on guidance. H1 EBITDA, you've almost reached 50% of the year target. And well, the expected delivery volumes should be bigger in the second half. And then on top, you may have the profit from the land sale to Stoneshield. So my question is, how -- I don't know if you can elaborate a little bit more on the guidance because it seems quite prudent, especially if the land sale is finally closed before the year-end.

So also any comment on this would be very helpful. And last one, sorry, Slide 13, there is a presales coverage ratios, 89%, 78% on the Neinor's fully-owned portfolio. And Jordi, I think you've mentioned '28 is at 43%. My question is based on what targeted deliveries. So what is the internal delivery target you have for the fully-owned portfolio? I'm sorry for the...

Wow, Fernando, a lot of questions. I have tried to write them in a paper your questions. I answer the last one, which is to be clear, I don't know what I have said, but it should be 33%. So if I have said 43% that typo -- probably I'll take it. Sorry for that. It's 33%, okay? So going to your first question, land sale Rio Real, Rio Real is closed. By the way, that mean, we have signed the contract. The only thing is that pending to some urbanistic milestones, and we do believe that these urbanistic milestones should be achieved between -- mainly in Q4, between October, November.

So it should be recorded by year-end. It is assumed. And actually, in our business plan was already in our numbers. So I also answered part of your guidance question that Rio Real is not an upside, it's embedded. It's included, okay? What else? The second question was about the EUR 400 million land sales that you are -- Mario will take it.

Yes. Regarding the disposals for us, it's more rotation of equity and a way to create more JVs. So this year with Rio Real, we are covering the budget. But on top of that, we have had around EUR 50 million of sale assets, small land plots non-strategic that we sell in the market. And for the next year, we are already working on potential vehicles with the land bank that would achieve the figures potentially we will anticipate. But today, we are working on it.

Just a follow-up on this, Mario. I guess this EUR 50 million is now in the market plus new more for the next year. I guess this is all coming from AEDAS?

No, the EUR 50 million are sale assets, granular land plots from AEDAS and Neinor combined. And then the other figure, we are working with both balance sheets.

Regarding your third question that was about Apollo, Apollo's bond. I mean, you know that we have a kind of EUR 180 million mandatory payment on annual basis. What we have done is to accelerate this EUR 100 million mentioned in the call. That means that we have EUR 80 million left for this year.

But it's too soon to change our guidance. Only 4 months after the mandatory tender offer. What we are trying is to improve everything probably by year-end, once we see if we are able to accomplish with all our targets, even go be above, we will see if we are in a position to optimize even better that debt and those repayments. But still, I think it's too soon to take conclusions.

Regarding the fourth -- there was a guidance that I have already mentioned part of it, I mean Rio Real is in the numbers. So it's not an upside. But given that this depends on urbanistic milestones, that's why I was saying that we still have a lot of challenges to be achieved during the second semester, and we don't feel comfortable enough to say that we can go beyond the guidance we said to the market. If this is conservative, cautious, this is relative, so obviously, anyone can have the mindset in that sense.

We prefer to say a number that for sure, we will accomplish. You know that in the last 7, 8 years, we have done it, and we want to continue with this strategy. So probably in October, November, we will be in a position to see if we achieve the numbers or if we can go beyond those commitments. And I think that we have covered your questions, but let me know if it's.

Only one, the last one. So the percentage of the 33% coverage ratio for '28 is just based on what numbers of deliveries you are -- what is the ambition for you guys to deliver in '28?

Well, you know that we never give guidance in the third year, only in the very short term. But in any case, it should be the same range. I think that in the next 5 years, we should be in a global deliveries of ranging 5,000 to 7,000 units.

There are no further audio questions at this time. So I'll hand the call back to Jose for any web questions.

Thank you, operator. We're just going through the questions in the webcast. The first one is on the expected -- the dividend payments throughout the rest of the year. If you can provide any additional color on the next payments.

I take it. You know that we had a commitment of EUR 250 million for the full year. We have anticipated, as commented in the presentation, EUR 170 million roughly. That means that we have still EUR 80 million left. All the dividends in Neinor, when we say -- the guidance and commitments are always in the first quarter of the following year.

So whatever we have done is just anticipate and it should be an upside in that sense. So this EUR 80 million left should be paid in January once we deliver and we generate the cash in the fourth quarter. If at some point in time, we feel that we have strong visibility and we have available cash, obviously, as always, we will anticipate it.

Thank you, Jordi. Then we have another question regarding AEDAS on what are the benefits and costs of keeping the company listed.

No. I mean, I think that there is no real benefit to have AEDAS listed. I mean there is only 3% free float, which is, as you can imagine, nothing. There is no liquidity. For us, different but since we are operating as a Group, as we explained very clearly in the tender offer prospectus.

So for us, there is no change. The only costs are minor, are irrelevant just to be listed and to have 2 independent Directors at the Board level. But in any case, even not being listed, we would have those Independent Board members because it's good for us and for the good transition.

Thank you, Jordi. On the next one, it's about cost inflation. If we can give an estimate of what we are seeing this year and the potential impact on our guidance.

Well, I have said in the presentation, so the cost inflation that we foresee is the mid- to high single digit. So let's see how we end the year. If it's a 6% or 8%, let's see where we end. But in any case, with a 5% HPA, we should offset any cost inflation. So we don't foresee any erosion of the margins.

On the contrary, as we were mentioning, I think that there is more upside risk than downside risk in that sense. Remember that when we project, we don't consider HPA nor cost inflation. So as far as we have both variables and they offset each other, we are in a good position to at least keep the guidance -- of the last year.

Thank you, Jordi. And the last question, it's about the capital allocation in the company and how do we prioritize further dividend acceleration, debt repayment and new investments?

It's not an easy question. I mean I think it's a balance, and we'll have to monitor during the course of the year. I mean, in regards of your last point, investment, you know that we have 6 years of land bank. So in theory, we don't need to invest in land this year. There is no rush. This doesn't mean that we will not buy because if we see opportunistic deals, we will jump. We are developers.

Actually, in our numbers internally, we have EUR 150 million of budget, out of which roughly EUR 40 million have been invested. So still we have EUR 110 million that we are not obliged to invest, but we have optionality. Regarding dividends, you know that we have EUR 250 million commitments, EUR 170 million distributed, only EUR 80 million is left to accomplish with the commitment.

That means that the focus probably in the second semester would be more on the deleveraging of the company with the cash generation. So I think in the very, very short-term, once we have accomplished with the shareholder remuneration, we will be deleveraging the company. I think it's fair, it's good, and we will be stronger as a company for what can come in the next -- in the coming years.

Thank you, Jordi. So with this question, we finished the half year results webcast. Thanks, everyone, for joining. And if you have any further questions, we are available to take it. And I would like to finish by wishing you everyone. Thank you

This concludes today's webcast. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Neinor Homes Full Year 2025 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, José Cravo. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, everyone. My name is José Cravo, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations at Neinor Homes. Today, we are going to go over results for the fiscal year 2025. And as usual, we are here with Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, our CEO; Jordi Argemí, our Deputy CEO and CFO. We will start the presentation with the key highlights in Section 1. Then on Section 2, we will provide an update on the closing of the AEDAS transaction. On Section 3, we will review financial results. And on Section 4, we'll finish with key takeaways. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A session to answer any questions you may have.

Now I hand over the presentation to our CEO, Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga.

Thank you, Jose. Good morning, and thanks, everyone, for joining. Let me be very clear about the most important message we want to convey during this presentation. We are executing today, and we are accelerating tomorrow. That is the story. Let's break it down. First, results. Full year 2025 is the seventh year in a row that we delivered on our operational and financial targets, 7 years, not 1 or 2, 7. In a fragmented market through cycles and through volatility, we have consistently done what we said that we would do. That is the value created by this management team. It's discipline, it's execution and focus.

Second, AEDAS. In less than 8 months, we have secured full control, doubled the scale of the platform. This is not incremental. This is transformational. With AEDAS, we created the national champion in a highly fragmented market. We moved from being a strong operator to being the clear consolidation leader. Third, the market. The macro is strong. GDP in Spain is growing fast. Employment is solid. Population is increasing and household leverage remains low. At the same time, supply is structurally tight.

And when supply is scarce, price move up. But -- and this is important, affordability for our clients remains healthy. We operate in a market where demand fundamentals are real and sustainable, not speculative. That is what we call HALO, Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence in a structurally scarce environment. That combination creates resilience and long-term value. And fourth, Grow. We are very well positioned. We have a scale. We have the best land, we have visibility, and we have a proven capital allocation framework.

We will continue to grow, but we'll do so the same way we have delivered 7 consecutive years of results with discipline, with focus, and with equity-efficient execution. So again, we are executing today. We are very focused in AEDAS integration, and we are accelerating tomorrow. Now let's move to Slide #5, and let's see the numbers. We have closed the year with a land bank of almost 38,000 units. Around 25,000 of those are currently under production and more than 12,000 are in work-in-progress or already finished. That is production capacity. That's multi-year visibility.

Our order book stands at record levels of nearly 9,000 units, representing more than EUR 3 billion of future revenues. And during the year, we have delivered close to 3,000 homes to our clients. On the right side of the slide, you have the financials. Jordi will go through them in detail later, but let me highlight 3 points. First, we reached the high end of our guidance. Second, operating margins remained solid with 27% gross margins. Third, at the bottom line, net income came in 7% above guidance, excluding AEDAS.

On the balance sheet, leverage increased versus last year as expected, but it remains fully aligned with our strategy and supported by a strong cash flow visibility. Finally, shareholder value creation has been strong with 25% growth in NAV per share plus dividends distributed. So when we say we are executing today, this is exactly what we mean. Please follow me to the next slide to see how the platform has transformed in just 3 years.

Now let's zoom out. The Spanish residential market is highly fragmented. Even the largest players have a very small market share. Neinor's platform today is 2, 3 or 4x larger than most of our peers. And in a fragmented market, a scale wins. Look at the evolution since 2023. Our order book is up by almost 7x. Our units under construction tripled. Our active portfolio is up by 4x, and our total land bank has more than doubled. This is not incremental growth. That is a structural expansion.

But let me be clear, this is not growth for the sake of growth. It's rooted in a disciplined strategy. It's grounded on our equity-efficient model, and it is designed to create value for our shareholders. Yes, the scale is important, but quality is even more. Please, let's go to next slide. Now let's turn to the quality because scale with the quality doesn't create value. More than 80% of our GAV is concentrated in 8 regions. These are the areas with the strongest economic growth, the strongest demographics and the tightest supply in Spain. This quality land bank is worth more than EUR 10 billion in future revenues.

And more important, it was acquired through a disciplined investment strategy. This provides meaningful downside protection and a clear upside in the current market environment. It is important to highlight also the segment in which we operate. We focus on the mid- to mid-high segment, selling homes at EUR 300,000 to EUR 400,000, more than 90% to Spaniards who are buying a residence where they will live. Around 30% of our clients buy with cash, while those that use leverage do so conservatively with an average loan-to-value of 65%.

As a result, our buyers enjoy structurally strong affordability metrics with house-price-to-income 40% below the national average. Moreover, in recent years, when house prices started to accelerate due to the structural imbalance of demand and supply, affordability for Neinor clients remains at the same levels or even is improving a little bit. This combination of premium locations, disciplined land acquisition and resilient demand positioning underpins the quality of our earnings profile. Please follow me to next slide so that we can explain why Spain continues to be one of the safest residential markets worldwide, which further strengthens our current setup.

For many years, we have been saying that Spain is one of the safest residential markets worldwide. And we say so for a structural reasons. It is true that most residential markets in developed countries are undersupplied. Spain is not unique in that sense. Their real difference lies on the demand side and in the financing structure. The Spanish economy is performing well. Employment is growing. Population is increasing. But more important, the Spanish housing market is much less leveraged than the others.

In Spain, typical loan-to-value ratios are around 70% to 80%. While in many other countries, it is normal for buyers to get 90% of the purchase price. Moreover, the cost of financing is also very different. In Spain, our clients are signing long-term fixed mortgages close to 2%, while in other markets, mortgage rates can easily be double that level. So lower leverage and lower financing costs make the Spanish market more resilient to shocks.

So when we think about the housing cycle and evolution of house prices, the key variable is not only supply, it is affordability under stress. In markets with high leverage and higher mortgage rates, affordability can deteriorate quite quickly when interest rates move. In Spain, the impact is much more limited. Buyers use 20% to 30% less leverage when buying. They lock in long-term fixed rates 30 years versus mixed rate to more short term in U.K., for instance. And household balance sheets are stronger than in previous cycles. That is why we believe Spain is structurally more resilient.

And that is why we believe this market can sustain moderate price growth without undermining affordability, especially in our segment. Now let me step back and explain why we believe Spain offers structural growth opportunities beyond the economic cycles. Over the last years, Spain has accumulated a housing production deficit of more than 800,000 units. To put that into perspective, this deficit is equivalent to roughly 8 years of current annual housing production. As you can see on the chart, household formation is exceeding year-by-year housing production, especially after '21.

The gap keeps increasing, and it is expected to do so in the following years. This tells us something fundamental. Spain simply doesn't build enough homes to meet underlying demographic demand. And as population growth accelerates and household formation continues, this deficit does not correct itself. That's why we believe Spain residential is supported by structural fundamentals, not just macro momentum. For a scaled industrial platform like ours in a quality land bank and embedded execution, this creates a long runway for disciplined growth and value creation. And now let me pass the word to Jordi to see a little bit more of AEDAS transaction and financials.

Thank you, Borja. Let's go through the key milestones of the AEDAS transaction, which we have successfully executed in just 8 months. In December, we acquired almost 80% of AEDAS by purchasing the stake from Castlelake. At the end of January, the CNMV authorized the mandatory tender offer and confirmed the price as equitable. Shortly after, we reorganized the Board of Directors, securing full operational control of the company. And since then, we have already implemented decisive actions.

First, we have restructured the corporate debt using the Bolus facility. Second, we signed a management agreement so that we are in charge of the key strategic decisions and have full control of cash management. And third, we canceled AEDAS shareholder remuneration policy to fully align capital allocation with Neinor strategy. As you know, the acceptance period of the mandatory tender offer will finish tomorrow, and the final results will be published next week. Regardless of the final percentage that we will own, the strategic objective of this transaction has already been achieved. We have control, integration is well advanced and synergies are underway.

With that said, let's move to Section #3 to review the 2025 financial results. On the left-hand side of the Slide 13, you see 3 columns. First, our original guidance for the year. Second, the reported results, excluding AEDAS, which are fully comparable to our guidance. And third, the actual results, including the impact of AEDAS from the 22nd December onwards. Let's start with deliveries. We neutralized around 1,900 units, out of which 1,565 units correspond to build-to-sell projects with an average selling price of EUR 421,000 and 352 units correspond to build-to-rent projects.

As anticipated during the year, the higher average selling price reflects the delivery of Santa Clara development, where units are sold above EUR 1 million each. In addition, the build-to-rent projects divested were for an amount of EUR 70 million. And remember that these are recorded directly as margin in the P&L due to the applicable accounting standards. As you can see, revenues from the asset management business are amounting around EUR 20 million, while construction and other revenues contributed approximately EUR 30 million.

In total, revenues reached close to EUR 700 million. And this is basically the higher end of our EUR 600 million to EUR 700 million guidance range. In terms of profitability, gross margin stood at 27%, also above our 24%, 25% objective. EBITDA reached EUR 110 million, also at the high end of guidance. And at the bottom line, net income came in at EUR 70 million, representing a 7% beat versus guidance of EUR 65 million. Regarding leverage, we closed the year with an LTV of 16%, which is below our target of 23% and this already includes the dividend distribution executed earlier this month of EUR 92 million.

So overall, solid operational execution and cash flow generation from the underlying business. Now looking at the third column, which includes the impact of the transaction, you can see that AEDAS contributed 26 units at an average selling price of EUR 412,000. Basically, it adds EUR 12 million of revenues and bringing group revenues to EUR 709 million. At EBITDA level, the impact is minimal, around negative EUR 1 million, mainly due to the structural costs and the margins for finished products, which are lower.

The most relevant impact is at net income level, I would say, due to the purchase price allocation accounting with a positive contribution net of transaction costs and net of one-offs of EUR 52 million. That implies that the net income increases from EUR 70 million Neinor stand-alone to EUR 122 million at a consolidated basis. Note that this is a non-cash item that was triggered by the badwill arising from the M&A transaction. This extraordinary profit represents an anticipation of the EUR 450 million target net income we announced in June of last year.

And if you look at the net debt, it increases to EUR 1.1 billion. This basically implies a loan-to-value of 36%, which again is slightly below to our 37.5%, 40% target, including guidance. So with that said, let's move to the Slide #14. Let' s zoom out for a moment and go back to basics. We operate a highly industrialized and scalable platform in a fragmented market. Our business consists of buying raw land and transform the plots into new homes for our clients. And as you can see, over the last 9 years, we have perfected this model, delivering more than 16,000 homes across Spain.

Financially, this translates into more than EUR 5 billion of revenues, industry-leading gross margins of 28%, more than EUR 900 million of EBITDA and more than EUR 600 million of net income. And that profitability has not remained in our balance sheet. It has been returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. If we focus on our strategic plan, we have distributed EUR 450 million with a further EUR 400 million forecasted for the upcoming 2 years.

In practical terms, these companies will return approximately 80% of its market cap as of March 2023 to shareholders in only 5 years. And we have done this while doubling the size of the company. Originally, the plan contemplated to reduce the size of the company by 30%, but instead, we are doubling earnings per share. So we have demonstrated that we are disciplined and be sure we will continue being.

And now I hand over the presentation back to Borja for the key takeaways.

Thank you, Jordi. So let me close by summarizing the investment case in 4 clear points. First, our positioning. We operate in heavy tangible assets, land and housing. These are real assets with very low obsolescence risk. In a world increasingly exposed to technological disruption, our business is structurally protected. People will always need homes and the real raw material is the land, not the metaverse. Second, our asset base. We control the largest and highest quality land bank in Spain. Fully permitted land in prime regions is scarce. Scarcity protects value and scarcity embeds margins. When you own the right land in the right locations with permits in place, you control both timing and profitability. This is a structural competitive advantage.

Third, the market environment. As we have seen, Spain is structurally undersupplied. At the same time, the housing market is under leveraged with conservative mortgage structures and resilient affordability. That combination makes the Spanish residential market one of the safest globally. And importantly, this structural imbalance does not disappear if GDP moderates. Supply constraints are long term. Demand fundamentals are demographic. This is not a short-cycle story. And fourth, growth. We will continue to grow, but with discipline. Every investment must be equity efficient. Every transaction must be value accretive. Scale is important, but discipline is what creates value. That is why we believe Neinor is positioned not just for this cycle, but for the long term. Thank you very much.

Operator, we can now start the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question. And the question comes from the line from Ignacio Domínguez from JB Capital.

I have a question on outlook for the next few years. What gross development margins do you expect to deliver on a consolidated basis, particularly as the combined Neinor, AEDAS platform stabilizes?

Everything regarding the business plan and the future, we prefer to wait because, as you know, we are in the middle of the Mandatory Tender Offer. So results should come -- will come next week. And after it, we try or our intention is to present the business plan and all the guidance at the AGM that will be in April. So a few weeks from that. We don't expect any changes to what we presented in the tender offer in all the guidance for the JVs. But in any case, it's better to wait for the final result of the tender offer to answer.

We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra.

I have 3 questions, please. First, on execution. So what is your target for new housing starts in your fully owned portfolio in 2026? And also would like to -- if possible, if you can elaborate a little bit on the constraints you may be facing in launching new developments and whether you see any change in the stance from public authorities regarding permits and approvals. Second, on land purchases. I don't know, you've raised -- you've done another capital increase aiming for new growth opportunities. So I don't know if you can comment a little bit more on this. And if you have any -- I don't know if you have any land acquisition target for this year as well. And third, maybe you will not answer much on this based on what Jordi just said. But if we assume that you paid the remaining EUR 150 million dividends this year, I don't know if you can comment on your year-end net debt target or loan-to-value based on this assumption.

I will start with the first question that was regarding -- I understood about what we are going to launch in this year for the year '26 which target. As we said during the tender offer, the new size of the company of the whole group between Neinor and AEDAS will lead us into a situation where we will be delivering between 5,000 to 6,000 units per year. So right now, we are just closing, as Jordi was saying, the business plan. And therefore, all the portfolio is being adapted into that metrics that I'm telling you. So more or less, you can consider that during the year, we should launch enough to recover in year '28, '29 those 5,000 to 6,000 units.

Regarding the situation with the politics and the permissions, well, you know that in Spain, the situation with the house crisis is getting louder year-by-year. And this is making most of the regions we are seeing in all the regions, in fact, where we are working, how the rules are changing. Basically, what all the regions are trying to do is to do it easier to get the licenses to short times and to try to increase the supply. All of this is good for our business. So we are happy with the situation in terms of the action of the politicians that we have been asking for, for so long.

Regarding your second question, the land purchase, I give the word to Mario.

Okay. Well, as mentioned, we are closing the investment strategy. And in the coming weeks, we will provide further details. But as of today, we can say that we have a good pipeline of above EUR 500 million in the different living verticals, both in build-to-sell in Senior, in Flex and in strategic land. We will keep discipline. So we know that today, we are the rock stars of the sector, but our main mantra is to keep the discipline that has allowed us in the last years to invest more than EUR 3 billion, but providing IRRs of above 20%. So that's a bit of what we can say today.

I take the last one, the net debt target. As I said before, Fernando, we prefer not to close down mandatory tender offer, and we will come back in a few weeks to explain the business plan in details. In any case, as I was saying before, whatever comes will be aligned with what we presented in June. And remember that the debt target there was 20% to 30% Neinor HoldCo Level on a consolidated basis should be around 40%. Then it will go down because we will deleverage AEDAS.

Okay. Just a quick follow-up on the politics. Are you willing to play via affordable housing or not it's not a priority for the moment?

Well, Fernando, regarding the affordability houses, we must say that right now, more or less every year, we are delivering around 200 houses of protection. We are delivering, for instance, last year, we did 500 units that we deliver what we call affordable housing that at the end is houses that instead of EUR 300,000 to EUR 400,000 case, as I have said in the presentation, cost between EUR 225,000 to EUR 275,000 and we deliver this type of houses, for instance, near Madrid in the places where we can get to buy land at cheap price.

Regarding affordable housing in the rental segment, we have an active program now with Llei de l'Habitatge de Catalunya that we are building for them 4,700 units. We keep looking the different opportunities that we are seeing with Plan Vive Madrid and others in Valencia or in Navarra. Basically, we need to be very sure before we enter into these operations that we have a clear exit when we get in and that the rentability -- the profitability of the transaction is enough for that exit.

So being a priority to contribute in the affordable housing solution in Spain, we are also very close to the design of these programs in order to try to make them, I think, more profit -- a little bit more profitable and it's something that, for sure, Neinor will play an important role in the following years. Today, it's not in our business plan, but it's something that we work with.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question, and the question comes from the line of Manuel Martin from ODDO BHF.

Gentlemen, just one follow-up question and then 2 other questions from my side, please. The potential 5,000 to 6,000 units deliveries per annum, more or less. Just to make sure, this is build-to-sell and from your own portfolio as far as I understood.

Yes. Basically, right now, we are delivering more than just small amounts of affordable housing that are more for the rental segment that both Neinor and AEDAS we are doing, but not too many units. Most of it is build-to-sell product. build-to-rent, private build-to-rent, we are not launching many, many developments because there was a loss of interest in the markets.

The 2 other questions, one general question. I don't know if you can answer that before your AGM comes. In terms of future growth, would it be able for you to indicate whether you would like to grow through JVs or through other acquisitions in the future? Do you have a preference there, which you can share? Or is it a bit too early?

I'll take this one, Manuel. Mario here. Well, we are monitoring always the full on balance investment and the JV co-investment vehicles. We have a queue of investors in our offices. That's the reality because there are less players and the appetite has increased in the last months. So we are selecting very well, which deals we do directly and which ones we prefer to do on that vehicles. So we have flexibility in the budget depending on the best option for our shareholders.

I see. Okay. And third and last question, actually, maybe a bit technical and for curiosity, the Purchase Price Allocation gain you had for 2025, the EUR 50 million to EUR 60 million roughly. Can you give us an insight how you arrived to that amount? Why is it EUR 50 million? Why not EUR 150 million, just for curiosity?

It's a good curiosity. The only thing that this is -- for us, this is not good because as I said before, this is a non-cash item. We -- this implant anticipate part of the future revenue, accounting revenue that we set in the guidance. So for us, the preference was to be at 0 being honest. But this is impossible because accounting rules do not allow that. So what we have done is working with the auditor to try to minimize as much as possible this level or this amount.

It comes from the difference between the valuation from third party, in this case, Savills, non-CBRE and the purchase price finally paid, but also we have included additional structural costs because obviously, one thing is the asset value. Other thing is a corporate company, a corporate that needs to deliver those units. And obviously, we have some structure. So it's a combination. But again, our preference was to be at 0 being honest.

There seems to be no further phone questions, if you wish to proceed with any webcast questions.

Thank you. So we'll go with the webcast now. We have here only one question. It's with regard to the results of the tender offer, the mandatory tender offer that will come out next week. If we can give some details on what is the strategy if we don't reach the squeeze out.

Okay. I take it. I mean, let's see what happens next week. If we get the squeeze out, fantastic. If we don't get the squeeze out as you are questioning, for us, it's also fantastic. I mean, for us, the deal is completed already independently on the percentage that we finally own by next week. We control the company. We control all the policies that's what matters to us. So once the mandatory tender offer is finished and imagining a scenario in which we don't get the squeeze-out -- our focus day after will be the activity of the company.

We will not be there trying to buy again those minority shareholders that want to keep and be in the company, fantastic, we welcome them. But our priority will be completely on activity. That's the reality. Also, that means that the dividend we canceled because we prefer to use the cash to deleverage the company. So dividend distribution is not something relevant today at AEDAS level. This doesn't mean that in Neinor Homes, we will have capacity to reach the guidance we set, and we don't need actually the cash coming from AEDAS to accomplish with these targets for the next 2 years.

Remember that AEDAS has around EUR 300 million of corporate debt; that is the bond plus the commercial paper. As I was saying, that's our priority for the coming 1 year or even 2 years. So whoever is there because we don't reach the squeeze-out, should be a medium- to long-term investor together with us. And one last comment from my side is that in a delisting tender offer, normally, the company, the buyer needs to allow during 1 month potential purchases if minority shareholders want to sell 1 month later, the tender offer. In this case, it's not a delisting. So Neinor is not obliged to continue buying once the mandatory tender offer is fully completed.

Thank you, Jordi. We have no further questions on the webcast. So that concludes the conference call. Thanks, everyone, for joining.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.