Nestlé Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = CHF201.48b | Revenue (TTM) = CHF88.37b
Market Cap = CHF201.48b | Estimated Revenue = CHF91.34b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = CHF258.19b | Revenue (TTM) = CHF88.37b
Enterprise Value = CHF258.19b | Forward Revenue = CHF91.34b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
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Nestlé Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
31 Analysts have issued a Nestlé forecast:
Analyst Opinions
31 Analysts have issued a Nestlé forecast:
Nestlé Events
Past Events
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SEP
8
Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference
11 days ago
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JUL
23
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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JUN
2
23rd annual dbAccess Global Consumer Conference
4 months ago
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APR
23
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
5 months ago
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FEB
19
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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FEB
19
2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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OCT
16
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
11 months ago
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SEP
3
Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference 2025
about one year ago
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StocksGuide Free
Nestlé — Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay. I think we've been told to get on with it. So that's what we're going to do. So delighted to welcome Nestlé to the stage and CFO, Anna Manz. Thank you, Anna, every year. You're very supportive of our conference. We really do appreciate that. And a lot to discuss.
I'm probably going to sort of kick off maybe big picture talking about your favorite topic of real internal growth and the kind of the ambition to get to the -- in the first half, you're kind of tracking you're sequentially improving. I think you're at 1.5% and you've still got some headwinds from U.S. pet care, Europe.
Maybe you can sort of just share your kind of confidence that you will be able to get to that kind of steady state 2% algo. And maybe which businesses are you happiest with are tracking and which of them are kind of maybe further away from that kind of 2% level is maybe a good place to start.
So you're right. RIG is my specialist subject and a huge priority for us because obviously, driving growth drives margin, drives cash, drives all of it. And we're making really good progress. We've now had 4 solid quarters of RIG-led growth. And you see Q1 to Q2 improved from a 1.2% RIG to a 1.8% RIG. And if you look at our performance in Q2, we're actually above that 2% number now in coffee and pet, and we're right around there on confectionery, food, and snacks.
So the thing that's holding our RIG performance back is nutrition, and that's largely the infant formula recall. And there, again, we're making really steady progress in terms of recovering that business, and we're on track. Looking forward, what gives me confidence around sustainable RIG-led growth, firstly, is the resource allocation that we're doing. So the work that we've done to really describe those categories where there is structural growth well ahead of the rest of the category. So those subcategory areas.
30% of our business sits in those areas. And there in the first half, we're growing over 7%. And that incremental investment in that space should see us accelerate. So that resource allocation is important. I think the other thing that's important with respect to RIG-led growth is execution. And there, again, absolute focus on if you've got the right taste, the right price versus the competition, the right distribution and visibility, the right media, then we're gaining share and growing.
And there isn't any bit of our business where we haven't got those things right when we're not growing. So that's what gives me confidence moving forward to be above 2% on RIG, but to be consistently over 4% on organic growth.
But I guess within that, North America is your key geography, 35% of revenues and the RIG, I think, was flattish. I think you described that as not acceptable. Clearly, you need to do more to get to the 2% of the group. As you look across the North American portfolio, what's your kind of outlook for the U.S. consumer?
And then how much of that kind of gap, I guess, the flat versus the 2% is kind of explained by category headwinds versus sort of internal execution? Because I guess getting that North America piece really moving, is going to be a key unlock.
Yes. So no, we weren't happy with the performance in Q2 on North America. More to be done. And the consumer was not the driver. I mean the consumer is weak in North America, but it hasn't deteriorated. It's consistent. There's kind of 3 things going on in North America in the quarter. Firstly, you've got weak category growth in frozen food, and I'll talk about that for a minute.
You've then got a couple of areas where we are underperforming the category. So that would be Gerber and creamers, and I'll come back to those. And then you've got a third bucket where there's a bit of phasing noise in the quarter associated with retailer inventory levels, timing of price increases. That I'm not at all worried about. That's just timing phasing. You can ignore that third one.
So maybe then just to focus on the first 2. There, the category as a whole is in slight decline. It plays to the more challenged area of the consumer. Equally, there are big pockets in that category that are growing much faster. And the sorts of trends that -- where we're seeing that faster growth is around world cuisine, around high fiber, high protein, around actually the very small pack sizes or the single pack sizes and then the big family value packs.
So it's about making sure that we're playing in the right places in the category to really take advantage of the growth that is there. We are doing a better job of that. Our performance is improving. There is more to do to be consistently growing. Gerber, we've talked about before. It is a journey to turn that around. And the proof point on Gerber will be really the Q1 shelf resets.
For those of you that haven't followed the Gerber journey, but I suspect most people have. We've been talking a little bit to the yoga mom versus the busy working mom. So not glass jars, we need pouches, we need the formats, the flavors. We've got that. Right now, we've been working on that with retail over the last year. We've got product in production, but the annual shelf reset is really when we should regain our shelf space.
And then the third one is creamers, and that one annoys me. It annoys me because some of our issue in the quarter was production, and that really isn't acceptable. So we've made the interventions there, really good momentum on the fast-growing part of the category. A bit more to do on Coffee mate, but good progress.
So in short, the U.S. consumer, we're not seeing material change. It is all about our execution. We're making good progress with coffee and pet. And there's a couple of areas where we know we need to do better, and we are intervening and you're seeing that improvement, and you'll see it come through.
We maybe just double-clicking on U.S. pet food because it's your biggest, most important sell and you talked about like a temporary sort of destocking because retailers no longer need as much safety stock given you've got wet cat capacity. But how can we be sure, I suppose, it's a 1-quarter issue?
Because at the same time, we are seeing more generalized destocking happening across U.S. retail because U.S. retailers are taking a more cautious view about the outlook for the U.S. Just trying to understand, do we kind of just look at the sell-out of cat and dog and then kind of conclude that if it's a quarter issue, it should marry up in the third quarter as the sell-out data that we can see on cat and dog. I'm just trying to sort of -- you say it's like a bit of a nonissue, but I think for the market, people are still a bit worried that it could continue beyond 1 quarter, I guess.
Yes. So let's unpack that. I would point you to the sell-out data because that really tells you what consumer offtake is. And that really tells you around the momentum and the health of the brand. And you're seeing very strong sell-out performance through Q2. But for those of you watching the scan data, that strong sell-out in cat is continuing.
And there -- so firstly, cats are growing, growing 2% to 3% as people go back to work post-COVID. Cats are an easy pet to have. And cats from a CFO's perspective, they're just -- they're brilliant because you premiumize in cat because your cat enjoys the experience, and you can see your cat enjoying the experience, or you're getting better connection with your cat.
The lovely thing about cats is they're super picky eaters. So if you give them a better food, they won't go back and eat the old food. And that is why being able to innovate into the cat space is wonderful because it gives the opportunity for the consumer to trade up. And that's what you're seeing actually drive the wet cat category now. So it's growing kind of 7%-ish.
The fact that we've got capacity and we're bringing all of our flavors into it, that's what's driving it. So you see the momentum. In terms of kind of the stock issue in the quarter, there was -- I mean, there is a slightly broader retailer desire to manage cash flow and stocks, and you see that more generally. And we had a bit of a double whammy on pet food specifically because -- when you've got a product that you are being inconsistent around supply, the retailer algorithm seeks -- particularly if that product is a product that has got great consumption and is being pulled off the shelves, the retailer algorithm looks to try and get more than its fair share of that product.
And so they order more. I mean you see the order volume go up significantly if you're in poor supply and retailers hold on to safety stock. And so what you've seen is that situation reverse as we've come back to full capacity and we're now supplying very consistently, the safety stock has fallen out of the system. So it's...
And your market share in U.S. pet, are you happy with that?
Growing nicely, yes.
Okay. Interesting. Maybe moving to coffee because coffee has delivered pretty strong growth for you guys over the last 2 years, driven by pricing. But as coffee prices moderate and pricing contributes less to growth, what does the kind of coffee growth algo look like? Because from the volume data we can see at the moment, it does look a little bit softer.
I know you took a high single-digit price increase on Starbucks at the end of the quarter. So you would expect some kind of elasticity from that. But has that kind of continued? Are you -- is there anything around coffee on volume that is causing any angst? Or is it very much in line with how you see it tracking?
So maybe just to deal with Q2 specifically, and then I'll talk a bit more about coffee. So Q2, I think we saw slightly weaker volumes in the U.S. And to unpick that, Nespresso grew very nicely with high single-digit growth and volume growth. Nescafé grew very nicely with, again, high single-digit growth and volume growth. And there was an impact in the quarter, specifically with respect to Starbucks where we took price.
So -- and the way to think about coffee is -- and I always think about my mom when I say this, most people have coffee in the cupboard as well as out that they're using. And so when you take price on coffee, the first time the consumer goes shopping and they see the higher price, they think, well, I've got coffee in the cupboard. I don't need to buy more this time. Let's see if it's on promo next time I go shopping.
And you often see a couple of weeks of that cycle. And then as the stocks dwindle, you then buy more. And that's why you see an initial volume reaction right after a price increase. We've seen it again and again and then it normalizes. So that's what we're seeing in the U.S. More generally speaking, good structural growth in coffee.
What we're seeing is coffee move beyond the traditional need state of hot and first thing in the morning into refreshment, indulgence, functional. We're seeing convenience, so RTD and experimentation actually with the younger population really, really growing. All of those things are structurally driving coffee. With respect to us, we are really focused, therefore, on those areas of the category that are exhibiting faster growth.
So specifically cold, there's much more cold coffee drunk in coffee shops than at home. And so really driving the offerings to capture that opportunity. RTD coffee, so it's a convenience, driving portion coffee because we have a small share of portion coffee in the U.S., which is a significant opportunity and then continuing to drive penetration of Nescafé across the emerging markets. And so that will systematically drive the category.
And to your innovation question, it is all about innovation. So to give you an example, to take coffee into the refreshment space, we've launched a Starbucks Refreshers Concentrate, which is a clear fruity concentrate made with green coffee, so it has some caffeine. It doesn't taste of coffee. It's a fruity drink. And that takes that cafe refreshment moment into the coffee aisle.
And the recruitment that we're seeing with that product, I mean, huge purchase intent in that much younger generation that don't necessarily make their way into the coffee aisle and then great retail. So that's how we keep recruiting into the category.
I'm going to maybe switch gears and talk a little bit about emerging markets because so much focus on the U.S., your Asian RIG has been super impressive. And quite broad-based, it seems. Some investors sort of think maybe that's you benefiting from supply chain challenges for local players, maybe you can hit that?
Or is it just that the underlying food and beverage markets are just in quite good shape in those regions? And maybe you can kind of unpick a little bit what's happening on the ground, which brands are contributing and sustainability, I suppose, of this, I think it was mid-single-digit RIG in the region? Just if you can help us a little bit unpack it.
So we've got really, really good broad-based growth across the emerging markets. And I'll put China to one side because that's probably a different question. And that's across both LatAm, Asia as well as Africa. And we have -- I think one thing because people always ask about China and India. India is 5% -- China is 5% of sales.
But we have 6 or 7 markets that are in that 2% to 4% of sales size across the region, so Brazil, Mexico, Central and West Africa, the Philippines, Malaysia. So really, really broad-based exposure. What we're not seeing particularly is a change in the underlying economy. So it's not consumption driving growth. It is market share-led growth, which is a good thing.
And that, frankly, is coming from this consistent improvement in execution that we're driving across the group, coupled with an improvement in our innovation pipeline. And that is what is allowing us to sort of very consistently execute.
You said that China is a different story and of course, it is. I think we're about a year on from the China reset. Maybe you could share your thoughts with how it's going, how you feel about the work that you've done on the ground in terms of route to market and making it much more consumption-led rather than distribution push?
Yes. So a year ago, we said we needed to drive a consumption-led model in China because for a good number of years, we have been driving growth in China by driving distribution of our brands from Tier 1 to Tier 4 plus cities, and we haven't done a good enough job of driving the consumer pull. So what you've seen us do over the course of this last year is, firstly, revisit our route to market.
So consolidate distributors where we had a few places where we had too many, take some stock out of the system where, in some cases, it was a bit aged. And we've also reviewed our own sales forces. So you've seen us do things like combine what was effectively 3 different infant nutrition sales forces across Illuma, NAN, and the specialty brands into one very targeted sales force.
You've also seen us do things like reduce our SKU count. So China is a very fast-paced market. Innovation is really important. And we had done a lot of innovation, but it meant that we'd ended up with a proliferation of SKUs. And actually, what we've done is focus it right down so that we're bringing the right pace of flavor innovation, for example, in coffee -- so where we're bringing the sort of rapid flavor innovation, but we're doing it on a rolling basis with real focus on which SKUs we're driving.
And that is helping us move from a place where we weren't seeing volume growth, for example, in RTD, and we are now. We've also been very thoughtful about what influences and which -- what things our consumers are particularly focused around. And so for example, Shark Wafer, which is a confectionery product, linking us with some gaming -- some games and doing some special edition packs has really connected with the consumer group that consume that brand.
So being really thoughtful about how we're doing brand marketing and influencer marketing. So good progress overall, but more to do. I would say the end markets are still challenged. So our categories in China are still declining in value terms, 2% to 3% as a category. So it's going to take us a little bit of time to go from a share loss situation to consistently holding share and then outperforming our categories.
So obviously, now we're through the destock, we're going to have a period of easier comps. Comps aside, I'm really focused on our market share and performance versus the category where we're seeing stabilization and some improvement.
I mean one of the interesting things covering it for a while that seems interesting is how Nestlé is de-averaging portfolio choice. You had 10% that was high growth initially, that's now 30% and you're skewing your investments. It's really nice to see you breaking out the marketing spend between the high growth and the core, so we can see that skewing.
Can you talk about that journey that Nestlé has been on to kind of de-average the portfolio? Because can that 30% get to 40%, 50%? And how do you do that while still protecting still the other 70% of the core? Because it seems like that's a massive change in the way since you've been CFO, how you're allocating capital within the business.
De-averaging is a really good phrase because we did tend to set the same target for everything. Yes. So we are being really thoughtful about resource allocation and being really clear on where those pockets of growth are. And you're absolutely right, we are then putting disproportionate investment there, and we are tracking those business cases, not on an annual basis, which was the historic way of doing it, but quarterly, and we are reallocating capital as we go.
So if there are subcategory growth areas where we're seeing really good traction, then we will be putting more money behind it. And if we're not getting the traction, then we'll go back and revisit why. And that is absolutely helping us. Now when you think about that 30% of areas where we've got really high category growth, so things like cold coffee, RTD coffee, therapeutic pet diets, et cetera, they are all with the same brands as we're selling in the core.
So it's not some brands are winning and some brands are losing. It's that we are using the same brands to both deliver against the needs of the core. So in my case, I am a lifelong Nescafé drinker, and I will continue to drink it. But at the same time, the cold variant or Nescafé Espresso Concentrate is bringing in that new young consumer and my kids are coming in. Because it's the same brand, the investment helps both.
And we were talking about our kids going to university earlier. My daughter has just gone to university. She had been drinking Nescafé Espresso Concentrate and making these wonderful creations at home. When we did her back-to-university shop, she bought [ titrate ], so standard Nescafé soluble to take to university with her. So that is an example of how being in these growth areas actually is an investment in the brand as a whole.
So that is exactly how we think about it. It's not just about resource allocation. It's also about A&P effectiveness. And that's the other area that we've made quite a big shift to make sure that we are then tracking those metrics to understand that we're getting the returns on the investment. So for example, non-working was in the high 20s. It's now sub-20%. We need investment to go into working media, not non-working media.
We need it touching the consumer. We've reduced the number of brands that we're actually putting media investment into from 400 to 120. That's not because we are damaging those other brands. They are things like Carnation milk. You don't need media on Carnation milk. You need brilliant in-store promo. You need brilliant activation, but not media. So getting super clear on what needs what.
And then as we've taken the data set that we have to really drive detailed sort of marketing resource kind of metric tools across the group that allows you for each brand in each country to look at what the appropriate marketing mix is to optimize performance and really make sure you're investing in the right places. So those 2 things together, resource allocation at the big level and then marketing mix optimization at the local level is what's really helping us be much more effective about where we put...
As well as CFO, Anna, you've got the other hat of M&A as well. So you've been pretty busy on that front as well. Now you've obviously made big moves on ice cream. You're partnering in Waters, the exit of VMS. Would you say now that the portfolio changes are largely complete? Or do you still see kind of scope for further simplification.
And I guess, equally on the other side of the equation, I know big deals are out, but in terms of bolt-ons, are there any sort of specific kind of sort of technologies or subsectors which you are kind of interested in? And the M&A landscape generally, how do you kind of see it? I know the priority is organic, but I'm sure you're always looking outside to see what capabilities you could potentially bring in. So are we done on the disposals? And then on the bolt-on side, what's interesting?
So you're right. I mean we are always looking outside to make sure we fully understood the environment that we're in. And actually, that's one of the things that Philipp really actively calls out around driving an external focus in Nestlé because we can be too inward looking. And that does see us look across the landscape in every way.
In terms of focus at the moment, while we've announced Waters and VMS recently, the workload for the business isn't done until we actually close those transactions. And so while in your mind, we're done. Actually, there's a lot to do to now carve these businesses out and work through that. And I say that because one of the things that Philipp brings, which I really enjoy is an absolutely razor-sharp focus.
And the single biggest way for us to drive shareholder returns right now is organic growth, accelerating growth, improving margins, improving cash returns. And when we've got the business we own really motoring, that puts us in much better shape to do bolt-ons. It also means if we dispose of anything, we're disposing of it at higher value.
So where we are at the moment is working through the 6% of sales that we currently have underway is frankly, about the limit of what we can do without distracting the business while we really focus on driving that underlying piece. In terms of the future, as I say, we continue to look at the broader environment, and we will continue to take action if we don't think we're the best owner.
And in terms of bolt-ons, I think having reviewed 10 years of transactions, we are at our best when we are bolting on things that are relatively close to our core skills that are of a size that have an impact in more than one country, where we put great resource around seeing it through. So think Starbucks. So you'll see us look for transactions where we're super confident that we will deliver returns.
I'm going to move to large language models and product discovery. If the next generation of consumer choice is determined by AI agents rather than traditional advertising, what's Nestlé doing today to win that battle for recommendation? What gives you confidence that Nestlé can actually outperform in a large language-driven model? And that's again, an area you're doing a lot of work on, but I'd love to get a little bit of sense of where you are. I mean, the journey never ends, but where you're -- how you're feeling?
It's a really interesting area. And large language models, I mean we track on a daily basis, the extent to which large language models are -- AI is interrogating our websites rather than humans, and it's growing by the day. And so this is an area where we and everybody else is very, very focused. I think of it as, firstly, it's really important to understand the context.
And what I mean by that is having the data to understand how consumers are prompting in our categories is really important and what prompts they are using. And we work with third parties to do that. And it's not always obvious. The prompts that you think your consumers are making as a marketing director is not always the same as what the truth is. So live tracking of that is really important.
And then knowing how that you show up against those prompts is also really important. And again, we are now measuring that consistently. And not just that, making sure that we make available the data sets that we have out there to show up well because it's not just about showing up well as a brand name. It's also about being one of the cited places that people -- that the LLMs go to for information.
And this is where years of R&D research and all of the data that sits behind our brand is actually super valuable. So whilst what I've just described is simply understanding how the consumer is prompting and then optimizing how you show up. What it takes to do that is a few things. Firstly, understanding that, but then having the clean labels, the data to make available so that as the LLMs are looking for research in those subjects, we're making available all of our knowledge that will make us cited in those areas.
And I think years as a -- there's emotional marketing and then there's substance-based marketing. And our depth in R&D means that we have a huge amount of deep knowledge and data that we can provide. So you put all of that together, it's quite an exciting area.
The other big topic, I'm sort of jumping around here, apologies, is margins. I think on gross margin, Nestlé is still quite a long way below sort of pre-COVID levels for lots of different reasons. But going forward, yes, cocoa and coffee have gone back up again on El Niño. But presumably, you've covered lower down so that actually despite the short-term increase in raw materials, that's not going to be -- is my assumption, a near-term impact in the second half.
Can you talk a little bit around how we should think about margins, particularly around the raw material story because clearly, they're moving hugely dynamically. And then when you overlay that, you've got a lot of cost saving running through the margins as well. So kind of how confident are you that actually we do start to see that, a, that gross margin moving back and then that UTOP margin actually getting to that 17%, which still allows you to fund the A&P to drive the top line.
So I know it's a long question. But in terms of the margin, the raw mats versus the savings, I guess, are the 2 sort of -- the deltas maybe you can touch on.
Yes. So I think it's 3 different things in there. And I'll start with I'm confident. So maybe on the first one, short-term coffee, cocoa ups and downs. Just very quickly on that point. To be honest, the way we're managing it is we have agronomists on the ground pretty much all over the world.
And yes, there's a lot of speculation in coffee. I'm far more interested in what I'm hearing about how the flower is developing, which is the data that we are getting back that allows us to kind of have a view through to the underlying harvest and through the medium term rather than have to sort of manage our way through the daily ups and downs in trading.
In terms of H2 first, and then maybe I'll talk about the longer term. Just how to think about H2 margins. There are a lot of moving parts. So -- and maybe before I jump into H2, just to remind you the guidance that we've given on margins for the year. We said that UTOP margin will be better in '26 than in 2025. And we said that H2 will be similar to H1, and we said that gross margin will improve.
And that guidance we gave without any tariff refunds in there. So if we do see tariff refunds in the second half, that will be on top. Can you hear me? I'm back. [Technical Difficulty] So the moving parts on H2, firstly, we will see a slight benefit on coffee and cocoa coming through the second half. We do see more of a headwind around fuel and energy around the Middle East because we were well hedged in the first half, but we see that impact coming through in the second half.
Tariff refunds aside are neutral because we're lapping a period where we already had tariffs. Advertising spend will be at similar levels, H1, H2, just to kind of shape that for you. And in cost savings, we had about CHF 600 million in the first half. We're confident that cumulatively, we'll be on track for our CHF 1.2 billion in the second half, which means naturally, we should see a little bit less in the second half.
That said, if we're making good progress on cost savings, we won't be -- we won't limit ourselves to the CHF 1.2 billion. Big leverage will come through. And of course, pricing as we roll over -- as we move past some of the rollover pricing from last year will be lower as you see it also through. So those are the moving pieces of H2, which underpin H1 and H2 being similar.
Your bigger question around where the margins go, we have great brands that we are investing in. We are innovating consistently margin accretively, and we innovate and we are investing to drive our pricing power. So overall, our brands should continue to maintain the margin levels that they always had. And though in the short term, when we see some headwinds because of inflation, we can't -- it takes a little while to adjust and a little while for it to come back.
There's no reason why it shouldn't come back. So medium-term margins, I am confident of -- and our route to being consistently above 17%, it's just about doing more of what we're doing. So I'm very comfortable with that. And as I say, we've always said 17% is a floor. We won't be limited to that. But through the cycle, we should be consistent.
How should we think about that RIG leverage? Because obviously, the RIG is 1 or 2 or 1.5 in terms of the drop-through to the margin. Because I guess that's a bit sometimes us analysts is easy to underestimate coming from a place where volumes have been negative historically, when you start to see the volume really picking up, I guess it depends on where the RIG is coming through.
Yes. I can't give you a rule of thumb, but RIG leverage is very helpful in our business. And within RIG volume. And you're seeing us accelerate RIG and improve the quality of our RIGs. So we're seeing that volume come through as well, all of which will help support consistent margin improvement. And that's why you should absolutely expect our business through the cycle to be consistently above 17% EBITDA.
And final question, Anna. I mean, if you kind of get through this period and you look forward to 2030 and you've got through the fixing the execution, simplifying the portfolio, rebuilding growth. If you and I sort of sat here then in 2030, and Nestlé has been successful. What would look fundamentally different about Nestlé then compared to Nestlé now?
I know we have a crystal ball type question, but just interested to know, given your time as CFO, how far through getting back Nestlé to the word the financial reference point of the sector that you historically always were and aspire to be going forward?
So I don't know how to answer that one because I don't have a crystal ball. But maybe just to give you a sense of where we are in our journey. I think we are really confident of the journey that we're taking. If I go back 2.5 years ago, there wasn't confidence in the organization that we could consistently grow market share, nor is the confidence in the organization that we knew how to drive cost efficiencies, nor that we could accelerate RIG.
I think where we are on our journey now as an organization, we are really confident that we know what to do. So when we have the right price, the right taste, the right distribution, the right media, we gain share. When we invest behind those areas that we -- there's higher category growth, guess what, we grow faster. And when we lean into taking on simplifying the organization, we deliver efficiencies.
So we've now built a playbook. Are we execute -- we're a long way off of executing that perfectly at scale all the way down the organization yet. We're in 180-some countries. And so it takes time to build both the capability, the shift, the clarity all the way down. So I think what we've got is a really clear playbook. We know the playbook works. And there is a lot of value yet to be created. And so we are pretty early on our journey to that value creation. And that's what's exciting.
Well, listen, Anna, thank you for your time. I think we're on the buzz. Anna is going to be doing a breakout. So if anybody wants to join and hear more about Nestlé, room next door. For those staying here, Danone is on next. So you can choose either. Thank you very much, Anna.
Nestlé — Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference
Nestlé at an investor conference: CFO stresses execution to lift real internal growth, targeted investment, margin recovery and M&A discipline.
📣 Key Message
- Growth focus: Real internal growth (RIG) is the north star — four consecutive RIG quarters, Q2 RIG ~1.8% improving toward management’s >2% target and a longer‑term aim for >4% organic growth.
- Resource tilt: 30% of sales sit in high‑growth subcategories; Nestlé is reallocating spend and media to those pockets to accelerate share gains.
🎯 Strategic Highlights
- De‑averaging: Fewer brands supported by media (400→120), higher working media share, and quarterly reallocation of investment to fast‑growing subcategories.
- Execution actions: Country moves — China route‑to‑market simplification, SKU rationalization, distributor and sales‑force changes; US fixes on Gerber shelf resets and creamer production capacity.
- M&A discipline: Portfolio pruning ongoing (Waters, VMS processes) while prioritizing organic growth; bolt‑ons will be close to core capabilities.
🔭 New Information
- Margin & savings: CHF600m cost savings in H1; target cumulative CHF1.2bn for the year remains on track and could exceed that if progress continues.
- Tariff upside: Any tariff refunds would be incremental to prior guidance; H2 expected similar to H1 absent refunds.
- AI readiness: Active work to surface Nestlé’s R&D and clean data sets for large‑language‑model recommendations; live tracking of consumer prompts.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- North America: Q2 underperformance driven by category weakness (frozen), execution gaps (Gerber, creamers) and phasing; management expects improvements from shelf resets and fixed production.
- US pet: Retail destocking in Q2 was temporary as capacity restored; sell‑out data shows continued consumer demand and share gains.
- Coffee & pricing: Short‑term volume blips after price rises (notably Starbucks licensed goods) but strategy emphasizes innovation (cold/RTD, portion formats) to recruit younger consumers.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Takeaway: This was a progress‑update, not a strategy pivot: Nestlé is executing a disciplined reallocation toward faster subcategories, repairing execution in key markets, and driving cost savings to restore margin optionality; shareholders should expect gradual topline leverage and medium‑term margin recovery if execution continues.
Nestlé — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Nestlé's Half Year 2026 Results. I'm David Hancock, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Philipp Navratil, CEO; and Anna Manz, CFO. Before we get started, please take a moment to review the disclaimer on Slide 2. Let me quickly take you through our agenda. We'll start with an overview of the key messages and updates from Philipp before Anna reviews the numbers in more detail. We will then open up the lines for Q&A.
And with that, I'll hand over to Philipp.
Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me start with some key messages. First, our execution is improving, and this is driving growth. For the last 4 quarters, we have delivered good OG and RIG. Now we need to keep delivering consistently and accelerate RIG to at least 2%. Second, we are sharpening our portfolio. The partnership for Waters is an important step here. This is about focusing to win. Third, efficiency and cash. We are becoming a more efficient company, and we are delivering cost savings slightly ahead of plan. This creates additional resources to reinvest in growth.
Free cash flow was strong. Finally, we are on track to deliver our 2026 guidance. Our strategy is clear. Now it is all about consistent execution quarter after quarter, half after half. The first half showed encouraging financial progress. Growth was broad-based and RIG strengthened from Q1 to Q2. Profitability improved from the low point in H2 last year. Free cash flow was much stronger than at this time last year, and net debt is lower. The actions we are taking are gaining traction, and we see plenty of opportunities ahead of us to further improve execution. By now, this should be a familiar slide.
I have shared these priorities before. The most important is RIG-led growth. Today, I will spend most of my time on growth, and I will also touch on some of the other areas. Let me start with the winning portfolio. For us, this is not about large disruptive change. We don't need that. It is about focusing resources on our strong positions in the most attractive categories. The partnership for Nestlé Waters and Premium beverages announced today is a part of this. For Nestlé, it allows us to concentrate fully on our 4 large categories: Coffee, PetCare, Nutrition and Food & Snacks. For Waters, it will create a dedicated global leader with the right structure to develop the business further.
In H1, we also moved ahead with our mainstream VMS and Ice Cream divestments, and we acquired the remainder of yfood and divested Blue Bottle Coffee. My goal on portfolio is very simple, a sharpened Nestlé focused on the businesses and brands where we can create most value. Turning to growth. We target sustained organic growth of 4% plus, led by RIG of at least 2%. This slide summarizes how we think about our growth model. The model has 2 parts. Both are important, but we have different expectations on each. First, in the core of our business, deliver 3% to 4% organic growth.
This means executing consistently to hold market share. Second, in our growth platforms, deliver high single-digit growth. This means accelerating our categories by stepping up investment in areas with the highest structural growth potential. Underpinning both are our leading brands. Take Nescafe. In Europe, Nescafe Gold has solid growth potential and is truly a core business. Elsewhere, the brand has highest structural opportunities like within our cold coffee and out-of-home growth platforms. So 2 parts of the growth model, different expectations on each, both underpinned by our leading brands. Key to driving growth across the business is being deliberate about where and how we invest and then relentlessly executing. Investment in growth is much broader than marketing.
Growth does not come from one lever alone. It comes from better products, stronger brands, the right value proposition, increased visibility in-store and online and clear communications with consumers. We are rigorously monitoring execution KPIs across all of these areas like taste preference, price competitiveness, shelf space and marketing ROI. In all cases, where execution scorecards are green across metrics, we are consistently gaining market share. Felix in Europe is a great illustration of this, but the same principles apply across every brand.
Coming to marketing, which is an important focus area for me. As you know, we have been increasing investment in marketing, up from 8.1% 2 years ago to 8.9% today. But it is not just the amount. It's how we spend and where we spend on how we are increasing effectiveness. On the left, you can see some color on this. Paid media spend was up double digit in constant currency with strong increases in retail digital media and influencer marketing. Nonworking media is now below 20%, coming from a number closer to 25%. So overall, investing more and better. On the right, we show where we are deploying the marketing spend. It is critical that we invest in both the core business and the growth platforms to ensure we at least hold share in the core and to help accelerate our categories in the growth platforms.
As we polarize spend, we are not taking away from the core. You see that on the chart. And you see that we are overinvesting in the growth platforms. The additional funds from our cost savings programs are being invested here because we see the strongest opportunity to accelerate. As well as increasing investment in marketing, we are also strengthening innovation, working from consumer insight back rather than technology insight forward. And we are seeing the impact of increased speed and scale of deployments.
And in all of this, increasingly leveraging AI across marketing and innovation. The good news is that it is working. In the core, growth accelerated meaningfully year-on-year, but we still have more work to do to deliver 3% to 4% and do it consistently. In the growth platforms, first half OG reached 7%, and we still have further opportunities. So moving in the right direction and more to come. Finally, I want to share an example that brings to life the changes underway at Nestlé. Let's watch this 2-minute video.
[Presentation]
I said this illustrates the changes at Nestlé. In fact, 2 specific changes. First, the change in marketing, more digital, more social, more organic, more fun, tapping into how younger consumers engage with the world, connecting our brands to consumers and culture in real time. You saw the stats on the business results, and we are proud to win 9 Cannes Lions awards for the company. The second change goes beyond marketing. It is a change in overall culture at the company to a performance culture. In this KitKat example, a handful of our people in Europe spotted an opportunity, did a rapid risk assessment, got a speedy sign-off and acted quickly. Within days, a local incident became a global conversation.
We didn't have weeks of alignment meetings, debates on press release wording, layers of approval hierarchy. Old Nestlé might well have missed this opportunity, but Nestlé is changing. We don't just use this as a case study for you externally. We have communicated about this loudly within the company to reinforce what we mean by performance culture, empowering teams, moving faster, reducing complexity, prioritizing business impact over comfort and consensus. One campaign does not transform a company, but it is a tangible example of the change we're driving. So to conclude from my side, we have made good progress during the first half, but there is still more to do. The strategy is clear. It's now all about consistent execution.
And with that, I will hand over to Anna to go through our Q2 and half year performance.
Thanks, Philipp, and good morning. In the first half, we delivered solid organic growth, supported by improving RIG across the business. Our underlying trading operating profit margin improved nicely compared to H2 '25 despite an increase in marketing investment. This was helped by cost savings slightly ahead of our original plans. Cash generation was strong. And while the operating environment is uncertain, our focus on execution is unchanged. We're building positive momentum, and we're on track to deliver our full year's guidance. We delivered 3.6% organic sales growth in the first half with RIG of 1.5% and pricing of 2.1%.
Sales continued to be impacted by foreign exchange. And as a reminder, the Swiss franc strengthened sharply in April last year. This meant we had a strong FX drag on sales in Q1 of 9% and a much more benign impact in Q2 of 3%, taken together a 6% drag in the half. Assuming current spot rates, the year-on-year FX impact reduces in the second half with a full year impact on reported sales of around 3%. Looking at RIG in more detail. I will focus on the quarters as that gives the clearest view of our performance. RIG accelerated from 1.2% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, and this is now 4 quarters of good growth.
The chart on the right shows quarterly RIG by category. Growth is broad-based with all categories RIG positive in the second quarter. This momentum is being driven by several factors: strength in emerging markets, stabilization of China, solid performance in developed markets and ongoing recovery from the infant formula recall. And I'm going to get into these in more detail. First, emerging markets, excluding China. The chart on the left shows the strengthening we've seen over the recent quarters, especially in RIG. Growth here has been broad-based across Asia, Africa and Latin America. Turning to China. Our business is now stable. We've completed the inventory reduction started in Q2 last year. The reduced year-on-year impact drove positive growth in the second quarter. Our transition to a demand-led growth model is progressing well and provides a stronger foundation for the future.
At the same time, the categories we participate in are currently still declining. Turning to North America. The organic growth trend has been improving since the beginning of last year, and we maintained momentum in the second quarter. In Q2, pricing increased and RIG declined. And this was driven by Coffee and PetCare, which together are more than 60% of sales. In Coffee, significant recent Starbucks pricing impact RIG. And as we saw last year, when we take price in coffee, there is an initial elasticity reaction with RIG then recovering afterwards, and we expect the same here. Second, PetCare growth is negatively impacted by retailer inventory reduction in the quarter. PetCare organic growth has been lumpy over recent quarters as we move from capacity constraints to pipeline replenishment, prebuying ahead of a price increase and now retailer destocking as our customers adjust to consistent supply.
Looking through this noise, the retail sell-out data on the right shows an acceleration in consumers buying our products. The category outlook is improving in both cat and dog, in part due to our actions to drive it. Taking a deeper look at Nutrition. OG has improved considerably from a decline of 3.9% in Q1 to growth of 1.7% in Q2. The main driver of the improvement was infant formula. In Q1, infant nutrition sales were down mid-teens, while in Q2, the decline was mid-single digit. We expect further improvement through the second half and have largely recovered by the end of the year. Infant nutrition is only around 1/4 of our overall Nutrition business. Kids and All Family remains impacted by the performance of Gerber in the U.S., but we saw strong growth in adult and medical nutrition, together 40% of our sales.
Turning to the zones, and I'll be brief as we've covered a lot of the moving parts already. Q2 performance in Zone Americas needs to be broken down. North America, I've already talked through. And in Latin America, we saw significantly less pricing with strengthening RIG across all categories. In Zone AOA, China was the largest factor in the acceleration from Q1 to Q2, but the drivers of growth are broad-based across the zone. Market dynamics vary, but improved execution is consistent across all. In Zone Europe, OG has slowed over the last 4 quarters. This largely reflects reduced pricing in coffee, along with the impact of the infant formula recall. And we were also impacted by some temporary customer delistings in the quarter. UTOP margins across the 3 zones were flat in AOA, down 30 basis points in the Americas and down 120 basis points in Europe.
AOA benefited from the strongest growth leverage and largest cost savings impact. Americas was negatively impacted by tariffs as well as higher consumer investment. And in Europe, we had the largest increase in marketing spend plus the impact of the infant formula recall. Turning to the globally managed businesses. Nespresso delivered solid performance with OG a bit lower than a few quarters ago, and that's mainly due to reduced pricing and with softening consumption in Q2. Our consumer acquisition activities are attracting new and younger consumers to Nespresso. Margin declined as higher coffee costs flowed through the P&L.
Commodity prices impact Nespresso later than the rest of our coffee business due to the longer supply chain. And finally, Nestlé Waters delivered strong growth, supported by the momentum in the U.S. and a hot start to the summer in Europe. Our international brands performed well, benefiting from innovations such as Sanpellegrino CIAO! and the ongoing expansion of Maison Perrier. Moving to our categories. Coffee continued to perform well. As expected, RIG slowed in Q2 from the very strong level in Q1 and pricing reduced. Also, as expected, profitability declined year-on-year, mainly driven by higher input costs now hitting the P&L. PetCare growth remains below our midterm expectation, but we're confident in the category.
I already talked through the improving sellout in the U.S., and this is combined with consistent RIG-led growth in Europe and strengthening in emerging markets. In Nutrition, we've already covered the key drivers of growth performance. The profit decline was largely attributable to the input formula recall. And finally, Food & Snacks. As you can see, we're delivering consistent good growth now with a balanced profile of RIG and pricing. And we saw double-digit RIG-led growth in emerging markets where we generate more than CHF 5 billion of annual sales. Turning next to profitability. We delivered 16.4% UTOP in H1, a 10 basis point decline year-on-year. On the left-hand side, you can see that we faced some very significant headwinds this year.
These included higher input costs, tariffs and FX. Net others here includes the impact of the infant formula recall, partially offset by a 30 basis point benefit from changes we made to one of our pension schemes, and we increased marketing spend. We worked hard to largely offset these factors in the half through more than 300 basis points of positive impact from cost savings, pricing and RIG leverage. This slide shows gross profit and UTOP margin progression over the last few periods. I just explained the year-on-year change in UTOP margin and the drivers of gross margin are largely the same.
Looking forward, after a good profit delivery in H1, we now expect the second half margin to be broadly similar to the first with no change to our full year outlook. There's many moving parts, but I'll focus on the most material. Compared to H1, we expect H2 UTOP margin to benefit from lower coffee and cocoa costs impacting the P&L and further cost savings. On the other hand, we have some higher transportation and energy costs arising from the Middle East conflict. Our Fuel for Growth program continues to make strong progress and contribute to our margin delivery. In the first half, we delivered CHF 600 million of incremental procurement and operational efficiency savings, slightly ahead of plan, bringing cumulative savings to CHF 1.7 billion. This puts us firmly on track to deliver our target of CHF 2 billion cumulative savings for 2026 and CHF 3 billion by the end of 2027.
Now let's look at marketing. Philipp talked earlier about how we're using these cost savings to fund additional investment, particularly on our growth platforms. And this is a journey we've been on over the last couple of years. We continue to step up investment in the first half, increasing spend by 30 basis points year-on-year to 8.9% of sales. With a sharper emphasis on effectiveness and return on investment, we're not only spending more, but we're getting more out of each Swiss franc we spend. As we look to the second half, we expect a similar level of marketing investment as a percentage of sales. Now let's look at the items below UTOP, shown as a percentage of sales, and I'll touch on the 2 most significant. Restructuring costs increased by 90 basis points. This is linked to the delivery of our cost savings plans and is delivering a good payback.
Second, the loss on disposal impact of 290 basis points. This comes from a write-off as we classify the businesses we're divesting as assets held for sale. Turning to underlying EPS. In constant currency, this increased by 4%, driven by our operating performance. At actual exchange rates, underlying EPS was down 2.4%, reflecting the strength of the Swiss franc. We delivered CHF 3.4 billion of free cash flow, a significant improvement versus the prior year. EBITDA was lower year-on-year, mainly due to the currency with working capital and CapEx driving the improvement. On working capital, this is partly due to the reducing cost of raw materials and inventory. But the improvement in both working capital and CapEx also reflects tighter execution and a stronger discipline on returns. Net debt was CHF 56.3 billion, down from CHF 60 billion a year ago.
As usual, net debt increased compared to the year-end as we paid the dividend in April. The primary driver of the net debt reduction was the CHF 3.4 billion of free cash flow. Turning to 2026 guidance. On top line, we've tightened our guidance slightly. We now expect organic growth to be in the range of 3% to 4%. Previously, we said around 3% up to 4% -- on profitability, no change to our view of the full year, with UTOP margin expected to improve versus 2025. And as I mentioned, we now expect second half margin to be broadly similar to the first. And finally, no change on free cash flow, which we expect to be above CHF 9 billion for the full year. So to conclude, we set out our strategy at the beginning of this year, and we're fully focused on putting it into action. The objective is accelerating RIG-led growth. This is the most powerful lever we have to drive shareholder value creation. In the first half, we made good progress, and we're well on track for our full year guidance. So now it's all about delivery consistently quarter after quarter, half after half.
And with that, I'll hand over to David to open the Q&A.
Thank you, Anna. So we'll now begin our Q&A session. As usual, please limit yourselves to a maximum of 2 questions each in order to give everyone the opportunity to ask their questions.
And we'll take our first question from Olivier Nicolai at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Olivier.
2. Question Answer
Just 2 questions. First on pets. You said in your prepared remarks that pet growth remained below your midterm expectations. When do you expect to reach those? And should we expect also further destocking in North America in H2? Or will sell-in equal sell-out? And then the second question is more on the margin. If we could go back to the building blocks for margins and your margin outlook for H2 considering the lower coffee and cocoa price and the other side, the logistic costs. And if I think about next year, full year '27, should we assume some margin improvements despite the fact that you will lapse the pension adjustment this year?
Yes. Thanks, Olivier. Thanks for the questions. I'll pass those to Anna to give you the answer on numerics.
So on Pet Care, we feel good about the medium-term expectations of the category. And actually, you see really good RIG-led momentum in Europe, growing at mid-single digits. You see the emerging markets growing really nicely. So what's held pet care back in the half and specifically the quarter is the performance in the U.S., which, as I talked through, is really a function of retailer inventory reductions because you see that strong and improving sell-out data. So the fundamentals of the category are really good. It's been a bit lumpy because of that retailer inventory reduction.
Looking forward, I don't particularly sort of see any further lumps, but I would just point out that the comp in Q4 for pet care is higher because, of course, we had the pre-price increase buy-in a year ago, but good underlying momentum in the category. And then secondly, on margin and how to think about it for both 2026 and 2027. Maybe just to step back a minute, we've both last year in 2025 and in the first half, we've had significant headwinds in the context of incremental commodity costs, tariffs and then more recently, some impact from the Middle East. And through that period, actually, we've been stepping up our PFME investment.
And both in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, you've seen us make good progress through really driving that cost savings lever, driving rig leverage through accelerating the business and through the benefit of pricing. So as I look forward to the second half, you'll see us do the same. We've got good momentum on around cost savings. We will have a little bit more of a headwind in the context of the Middle East crisis. But we're comfortable that taken in the round, the second half margin will be broadly similar to the first with good momentum. And looking forward to next year.
So we've said our medium-term margin outlook is 17% or more. And we're absolutely focused on getting there. So you will see progression in margin as we look forward to 2027. The exact makeup and shape of that will depend a little bit on the external environment between here and there. But again, the actions that we're taking to accelerate our growth, drive cost savings and make sure we're delivering the right consumer proposition means that I'm confident we've got the levers to improve margin as we go into 2027.
Great, thank you. The next question comes from Guillaume Delmas at UBS. Go Ahead, Guillaume.
Two questions for me, please. The first one is a bit part of a follow-up to Olivier's question because there were clearly a couple of factors that held back your growth in the second quarter. So the inventory reduction in North America and the delistings in Europe. Just wondering if you could give us a sense on the impact these 2 factors had on your Q2 OG. And also, if you would expect these headwinds to very rapidly fade away or maybe they could continue to weigh on your OG for the next couple of quarters. So any visibility on impact and future impact on your OG would be helpful.
And then my second question is on the core business. So Philipp, you mentioned in your presentation, growth platforms, I mean, they're basically already delivering a performance consistent with your medium-term objective. The core business is not. So my question here is, do you think this softness in the core is mostly attributable to the few underperformers like the Gerber, Nespresso Europe of this world? Or is it more broad-based and showing some continued market share erosion? So any color on this would be very helpful.
Yes. Thanks Guillaume. Look, I'll start with the second question, and I'll give the follow-up then to the 2 factors, Europe and U.S. to Anna. Look, on the core business, it's a good question. And you saw the growth platforms deliver 7% OG. So we're happy with that. And as you know, these are the areas where we overinvest and where we see higher structural growth. On the core, the growth was indeed lower. So we have said before that the growth on the core, we wanted to get in the area of 3% to 4%. That's the objective. But on the core, you also have to consider we have improved -- half-on-half, we have improved over 170 basis points in terms of core performance in terms of OG.
So it's going into the right direction. And what we're focused on there is really executing brilliantly against the core. And what's important to understand is what we do in the growth platforms also will help the core to perform because what's common between the 2, as I have said in the prepared remarks, is our billionaire brands. So they span across the core and the growth platforms. And in the core, we also have innovations that go below those billionaire brands. So what we know, and we have said that as well, and you saw that in the Felix example in the presentation before is where we execute brilliantly, where we have the right taste, the great tasting product, where we have the right visibility, where we have the right consumer communication and where we also have the right value in terms of price and pack architecture where all of that works together, we consistently win share.
And then there's also to consider still there is one large drag still on the core business, which is infant formula. As you know, we have called that out, and that is also improving as we are investing in consumer communication and rebuilding that trust. So I'm confident that we'll get steadily towards that 3% to 4% organic growth that is also RIG-driven in the core. And I'll pass to Anna on the follow-up on the 2 factors that you mentioned.
Thanks. So I see both these things as somewhat one-off in nature. With respect to retailer inventory, I can't speak for our retailers, and they look at their inventory levels from time to time. But the element of the inventory reduction in pet care that was around our supply. So the fact that we now have the supply that we need and we're delivering more consistently for our customers, that element, which has allowed them to reduce their safety stocks, that's absolutely one-off in nature. And with respect to levels of retailer inventory, they adjust them from time to time. We don't expect them to be putting the inventory levels back up in this current environment. But we're steady where we are at now. So more one-off in nature.
And with respect to Europe, Yes, we did have a customer delisting in the quarter. And this is normal course in Europe. And I would look at it as a phasing thing rather than anything else. I would say underlying consumption in RIG Q1, Q2 or underlying consumption by our consumers between Q1 and Q2, the momentum is consistent. So this is a phasing thing associated with a single customer. And when we have that situation, we're, of course, working with all of our other customers to make sure that our products are well available for our consumers. So yes, again, it's somewhat one-off, but it's the normal course of business in Europe.
And I can't remember was there another bit of the question? No, I think I've answered it.
In terms of quantification of this impact?
Quantification. So we haven't quantified it, and I'm not going to -- neither of them are material at a group level, but at a zone level, they're big enough to call out as a factor. But what we're not going to do is give us sort of running commentaries on the ups and downs and give you the picture in the round.
Thank you, Guillaume. The next question comes from David Hayes from Jefferies. Go ahead, David.
Just quickly follow up on that question from Guillaume and the answer on the European delisting. Is that pan category? Or is there certain categories that have been delisted that are affected and others that are not affected? And then my question will just be on the coffee dynamics around Starbucks and Nespresso. So obviously, Starbucks taking pricing quite late. Can you just explain sort of the drivers of that? And was there a bit of a prebuy in Starbucks in the first quarter ahead of that change?
And I'm thinking about Nespresso, you called out that the supply chain there maybe is even longer in terms of seeing the input cost headwind. So should we expect the Nespresso price rise to come through maybe in the third quarter, a bit like we saw in Starbucks and be aware of that dynamic? And then one question. And then just in terms of you mentioned the consumption softening in Nespresso, and it's obviously one of the key growth platform areas. Can you just talk to us about what's going on there? Is that a consumer discretionary spend issue? Is that going to improve as you go through the second half?
Yes. Thanks, David. Look, I'll take those. So look, the listings, it depends. I mean it's not pan category, but it's mainly related to categories where you see input costs moving, so mainly coffee and confectionery. But it's something, as Anna said, it's normal of doing business in Europe, and we have to keep working through that. And I'm really confident we'll get that solved because price is one aspect, obviously, that we discuss with our retail partners, but we're really focused on driving category growth through innovation and other aspects than pricing.
And so that will weigh in while we solve those temporary delistings. So I'm very confident we'll work those through. On the coffee dynamics, look, the pricing on Starbucks, it's not late pricing, and there was also not a prebuy in Q1 at all. What we do and we do that, and it also relates to your question on Nespresso. When we price, and we've always said that we do that in a staggered way. So it takes consumers along. And you have seen coffee, specifically coffee go up steep in last year and also 2024. And we did not reflect all of that input cost increase in prices. And so what we tend to do is to stagger prices as we want to take consumers along when we price. And that last price increase end of Q1 this year, obviously reflects one of those last adjustments that we did on Starbucks. And you see, obviously, normally in the first quarter after a price increase in coffee, you see consumers adjust.
But then as coffee is a habit that is really much common and people will go back to the normal usage normally after a quarter. So that is the dynamic in terms of the pricing. In terms of Nespresso, we do the same -- we apply the same in terms of when we price at Nespresso, and you have seen us price in Nespresso specifically in the U.S. last year, and we have not taken more price there. What -- as far as consumption is concerned, what we see now, and that is what we measure and what I'm really focused on when we look at Nespresso is really household penetration. As we have said in Nespresso in the U.S., we're still gaining share in an environment where portion coffee is -- growth is negative, where we're gaining share within that as we're gaining household penetration.
So what I'm focused on is really looking at machine sales. So how many households buy a Nespresso machine and then have access to the pods. And those households, what we have seen those households that come on board now are households that might have a little bit weaker purchasing power than the households we had in the past or we already have. But that is exactly the opportunity we have with Nespresso to get them into the system and then making sure they have access to the coffees they love through our boutiques, through our online store, through retail partners like Walmart or Amazon and target where pots are available online as well. So really still doing well in terms of consumer acquisition in Nespresso as we have vast opportunities to still get household penetration in the largest portion of coffee market in the world, which is the U.S.
Thank you, David. The next question comes from Warren Ackerman from Barclays. Go ahead, Warren. Your line should be open.
It's Warren here at Barclays. I've also got a couple of questions. The first one is AOA RIG was pretty strong, I think 6% in the quarter, and China was better than you'd indicated. I think you were still expecting it to be small down in the quarter, it's actually up. And it seems quite broad-based. So could you do a bit of a tour of the key AOA countries for us? I know Nestlé India printed, but just what you're seeing in like India, China, Southeast Asia, Middle East and your outlook, should we be overall expecting China better in H2, but the rest of AOA maybe less good?
Just trying to understand how you're thinking about the big Geos in the region, what's going on? It's obviously very strong. And then the second one is a bit of a kind of detailed one for maybe for Anna on the margin bridge. Apologies, Anna, for the kind of geeky question. But on the sort of 70 bps other line that you showed us, there's a footnote that talks about a 30 bps pension credit. And I guess you also mentioned the infant formula recall. So I'm assuming that must be almost a minus 100 bps impact to get to the 70 bps headwind overall, netting off the pension credit of 30. So I'm just trying to understand that because I thought that you had booked the margin impact from the recall on infant formula in the second half of last year.
So it looks like there's an additional 100 bps headwind on the margin from that in the first half, which seems pretty big. I know you haven't quite gotten through the whole thing, but formula did improve quite a bit in the second quarter. So just trying to understand that, why it's ongoing? And then the second part is on the pension credit. Can you explain what's happened and whether there's any kind of additional kind of additional benefit to the margin in the second half? Just trying to understand those 2 sort of bits within the other buckets.
Thanks, Warren. I'll take the first part and the second one is obviously a detailed one for Anna. Thanks for that one. Look, on AOA, the whole zone was strong, as you rightly point out. And as you also rightly pointed out, there's 2 parts of it. Obviously, China, we're happy to see that back to positive growth after 1 year of adjustment, and we were through our stock adjustments in China, building this consumer-led model, consumption-led model. There is, as you know, a new management team in place, focused on driving innovation, focused on driving the right distribution, the right numeric and weighted distribution and also the right level of brand support that we need.
So really through with rebuilding the model. But you have to take that sort of in the context of where the categories stand in China. So the categories we play in China still show negative growth, so negative 1%, 2%, 3% depending on the category. So our more steady performance goes against that backdrop. And in some categories, we're still losing share as we're rebuilding the model. So China, we expect to have stabilized, but you have to take that into context with the categories and environment we play in China. But definitely, we're setting the business up to be able to capture any change in that underlying category growth over there. And then the rest of AOA, ASEAN, including Japan, very strong, Southern Asia, so India, very, very strong. And that's really to draw back to our execution muscle in those markets.
And that goes even beyond AOA. So the whole emerging markets we're really proud about the growth there. And it's really where the execution muscle comes together in terms of having the right product at the right place where consumers shop, where consumers consume and just the power of our brands. And that is where the power of Nestlé really comes to life and that you have seen reflected in some of the performance. Then just 2 -- just as I ask for outlook, just 2 caveats there.
So India, obviously, there is a tailwind in terms of the change in sales tax, and that will lap now in Q3. But we'll still -- we still expect double-digit growth coming from India. So India is a growth driver for us definitely. And then obviously, comparable numbers are getting stronger. But definitely, emerging markets and AOA will continue to be a place of growth for us going forward, while China is stabilizing its performance in this still negative category environment.
And I'll pass to Anna on the bridge.
On the bridge. Actually, just one last thought on AOA. And we're consistently growing share. The share gains are broad-based. So what may change is the category dynamics, but we are outperforming the categories that we're playing in very largely across emerging AOA, China to one side. So with respect to the margin bridge, and thanks for the question. I always like a detailed question. And so on the others, there's a few things going on here. So you do have the impact of the infant formula recall, but it isn't just that. There's a number of other headwinds in that others box.
And we didn't do a long list of them, but it's things like transportation costs being higher because of the Middle East, things like that. So the biggest element of the headwind is infant nutrition, but it is only one element. So it's by far not all of the 100 basis points that is effectively that net headwind. And where that's coming from is it's the impact of the lost sales. So our sales are lower. We've got the same cost base. So that obviously has a margin impact in the period. It's not the cost of recalling or writing off product that was taken in the prior year. So that's the headwind element. In terms of the pension credit, so yes, there was a 30 basis point benefit that we also put in that other bucket. We didn't call it a cost saving because it's one-off in nature, and that was why we put it in the other bucket.
What we've been doing in the context of the performance culture that you hear Philipp talking about is we've looked at our employee benefits, and we're working to make sure that employee benefits and packages are better aligned with what employees want today. and modernized in some areas. So this -- a big chunk of where this has come from is that we offer in this pension scheme, our employees the opportunity now to take a lump sum when they retire or as an alternative to taking the pension. Previously, there was only the pension alternative. And that gives you a one-off curtailment gain in the period. In terms of the ongoing impact of that, none in the P&L, but obviously, there'll be a cash flow benefit, which will be small over time.
But maybe if you step back overall, on that bridge, I guess, what we were laying out for you is that there are a lot of moving parts in terms of input costs, tariffs, the others, the increase in investment. And we've been really focused on driving the right-hand side of the bridge, which is the piece under our control. So really focused on delivering those cost savings, and you'll see us absolutely remain on that trajectory, really making sure that we are accelerating RIG, which gives us the RIG leverage and of course, appropriate pricing, where the consumer can take it, where it works with our product proposition. And that's why we're confident of the overall margin and the overall margin outlook and positive progression as we look forward to 2027.
Thank you, Warren. The next question comes from Nicolas Ceron from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Just one question on your U.S. pet care business. We've seen some of your large competitors doubling down on the fresh pet food in the U.S. And so far, you've not made any strategic announcement there. So my question is, do you really intend to continue losing share in dog food to protect the margins? Or do you think you need to enter the space at scale at some point? And in that context, do you think the margin growth or margin protection is more important than RIG, at Nestlé. And I have a second question on capital allocation. Would you consider redeploying capital in the U.S. infant formula if there was a business that became available?
Yes. Thanks, Nicolas. So I'll take those. Look, in U.S. pet care, in fact, we're -- overall, we're doing well on share. In terms of fresh, which is an area of obviously growth, we're looking at it, and we're actually playing in it through 2 areas. And obviously, there's always opportunities to do other things. So we have our brand Merrick, where we play in fresh pet, and we have a stake in just food for dogs as well where we play in that. And it's a space, obviously, we look at it. As I've always said, we're interested in growth. Margin is one thing, but we want to drive RIG-led growth, but has to do -- has to make sense as well on the bottom line. But it's a space we're looking at.
We're playing in it. And obviously, we're always interested and focused on driving rig-led growth and fresh pet is one of those. In terms of infant formula, in the U.S. where we don't play, look, we have no plans there at the moment. The infant formula today in the U.S. is a space of not much growth, and we're focused on infant formula at the moment in any case to drive trust, consumer trust and health care professionals trust back in everywhere else in Asia and Europe, and that's where we're focused on, but no plans to enter the infant formula market in the U.S.
Thank you, Nicolas. The next question comes from Jeff Stent from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead and ask your question Jeff.
Just one question, if I may. It sounds like Nespresso is still very much driven by the success of Vertuo. I was wondering, are you able to give us any quantification of how much of Nespresso that now represents? And also, I think I'm correct in thinking some of the important Vertuo patents start to come off over the next few years. When do you expect to see some generics come in on the Vertuo platform?
Yes. Thanks, Jeff, for the question. Look, it is indeed -- I mean, most of the growth now comes from Vertuo line, where we are still patent protected. Most of that growth comes today from the U.S. and Canada, where we still see strong growth on the back of that system. But also, we see growth in the original line system as we still roll that out in terms of penetration across the rest of the world. But Vertuo is definitely what we are focused on also because Vertuo drives more into where consumers want coffee to be, which is a more versatile system. You can drive more flavors. We have different recipes in terms of cold coffee. You have seen our new brand ambassador, Dua Lipa, really promoting Vertuo line mostly which is giving this variety and versatility of the Nespresso system.
So we're really investing behind that. You've also seen us launching a new machine on Vertuo, which is more practical, smaller and reminiscent of what consumers love about the machines in original line. So this is still a growth platform for us, especially in the U.S. and Canada, but also in Europe, as I said. And in terms of patents, we're still patent protected for some. There are several patents on that system. But at some stage, it's clear that we might see compatibles coming on to the market as we have seen in original line in the other system. And look, we have plans for that. And really what we're trying to do is building an espresso brand, making Nespresso not only a coffee brand, but really a lifestyle brand that goes beyond just a coffee, it's an experience.
And we're winning today because it's just a superior proposition for consumers, and we will continue to do that while we're obviously looking at how we will drive potential patents coming off. But we're confident in what we're doing, good innovation, good marketing and good progress so far on Vertuo line, but also generally on Nespresso still.
Philipp, are you able to give any sense of what proportion of revenue it represents?
I think we don't split that. But it's the main system in the U.S. and Canada and North America. So you can get a bit of an idea. It's -- that's as far as I can go.
Thank you, Jeff. The next question comes from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank. Go ahead with your question, Tom.
Just firstly, on the U.S. inventory commentary. I think Amazon is by far and away the highest growth in the channel in the scanner data. Are you seeing a negative mix impact on inventory to sales from that? And how healthy is the retailer base that isn't Amazon, Walmart or Costco because they seem to be losing share of every category and they're probably slightly higher margin for you as well. And then just on the marketing spend, how bifurcated do you see the marketing spend getting between the core and the growth platforms?
Because obviously, the core has dipped a bit and the growth isn't quite where you want it to be. So are you at all thinking that the core marketing spend would at all go lower as a proportion of sales?
Yes. Look, I'll start with the marketing one, Tom. Look, marketing spend, I mean, you have seen in the chart that I showed in the presentation, we're not taking away marketing spend from the core. What we are doing is we're deploying the additional marketing spend to the growth platforms that comes out of the -- out of the savings initiatives that we have. So there's about CHF 600 million additional investment this year into the growth platforms while not taking away from the core. And the core, it's important we don't take away from the core because the core still is an important engine of the company. And you have heard me say in a previous answer that we still need to step up the growth on the core. And that comes obviously with sustained investment, also sustained innovation and that we're doing.
And then again, these 2 buckets are somehow connected because if we invest, for example, in Nescafe in the growth platforms that will have a positive effect also on the core business. And so there are somehow those 2 buckets are connected. But it's not -- we're not going to go down that road again to take away money from the core to then fund something else. I mean it's important we have both well funded, but expect additional investments to go into the growth platforms. And you've seen us do that as well. look at where we have also invested not only marketing spend, but also CapEx, you have seen the last 2 big announcement of factories, they were bang on the growth platforms as well.
One was the factory -- the coffee factory in Thailand, which is all about driving growth -- coffee growth in emerging markets, mainly on Nescafe there. And then in pet food in Europe, it's mainly about driving wet cat, but also dog food, which is where we expect additional investments, CapEx and marketing to go against. In terms of U.S. inventory, look, I don't know I got your answer correctly, but it was about Amazon and the rest.
It's about mix. Yes. So just one comment on the marketing spend. we're accelerating the core. The core has gone from -- it's accelerated nearly 200 basis points with the investment that we've got. And on specific brands, you've seen the investment go up because we've reduced things like our nonworking marketing spend significantly from 20 plus plus to around 20. So there's a lot going on to make sure we've got everything right. And it's driving the acceleration. If we felt we needed more marketing to further accelerate the core faster, we would invest it. We don't feel held back by that maybe is a different way of saying it.
And on inventory, so I think the question was around do we see a negative mix? And is it does Amazon have a negative mix on us because it has lower level of inventory? No, that's not what's going on here. Actually, our customer mix is good. And actually, we -- our profitability by customer is pretty consistent because we have different offerings and we work in a different way with each customer. So we don't suffer from customer mix as such. And yes, they have different ways of selling and they hold different levels of inventory. But that's just how we operate with them.
We have different effectively business models with each of them. What's going on here is quite different. It's our existing customers reducing their levels of inventory. And that's been the impact in the quarter. And it's as simple as that. And that's why it's somewhat one-off in nature. It won't continue. It's not in any way systemic.
Yes. And what really matters more and more is focusing on sellout data. The inventory customers just need to hold as much inventory as they need to serve their consumers well. And we're focused on actually the takeoff out of those customers into consumers' homes and then consumption. And that's where we focused on everywhere, and that is why it's one-off.
Thank you, Tom. We'll squeeze our last question in from Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan. Please go ahead, Celine.
My first question is on pricing and probably the overall cost inflation framework. Is it possible to have an idea in terms of where you see for the full year, the cost inflation? I mean, it seems like you had inflation in H1 will be less in H2, but you also mentioned -- well, on cocoa and coffee will be less, but you also mentioned the higher costs in energy and transportation. So is it possible to have a broad figure? And then could you as well comment on maybe other costs that are important to you like milk, how you see it trending?
And within that, does it mean that -- it seems to me that it's higher cost than expected potentially? And does it mean that pricing deceleration would be a bit less than what we envision? Would that be a fair commentary? And then my second question is on the overall outlook on demand and RIG for the second half of the year.
I think you mentioned that you will be facing higher comp in AOA ex China in the second half already. And then we have been talking about this delisting and probably the retail environment. So like are you feeling that the demand environment is a bit tougher as you look in the second half of the year? And would it be fair, therefore, to expect that RIG decelerate? Or otherwise, could you explain why RIG would be broadly similar to the first half?
You want to take the -- Anna, do you want to take the pricing one?
Sure. So I -- so the moving parts are we've got a tailwind on cocoa and coffee, and we've got a smaller headwind on the Middle East conflict. And I'm not going to quantify what that means in terms of COGS inflation because, frankly, it moves around a lot, almost every time I check the news, oil prices move. And so whatever it is today, it won't be that by the end of the year. It could be better, it could be worse. I think the more important piece is how we think about managing it. And we do that through driving really, really consistent cost savings.
And then really focusing on how we accelerate RIG and what the right level of pricing is to take. And you'll see us take pricing where we think the consumer can tolerate it and where we think it is appropriate. So you've seen in Q2, for example, us take pricing in Starbucks in the U.S., but you've also seen us with slightly higher pricing in some markets and some categories in AOA, for example, where we think that the consumer can tolerate it, and we've got a moving cost environment. So we look at it all very specifically, and we manage it as we go through the lens of the right proposition for the consumer. But if you step back from it all, I'm confident in the first half margin guidance. And I think we've proven over the last 18 months that we have the levers to manage this.
We've had a lot of practice at managing cost inflation, probably more so than most because of coffee and cocoa. Yes, and pricing deceleration, we'll work our way through it. We'll take price where we think we can take price and we won't -- where we won't. We're coming off some highs in coffee and cocoa. But as I say, there are pockets where we're taking price, and you see that already show up in Q2. Do you want to talk about demand and RIG?
Yes. I mean it's very similar. I mean lots of moving parts there as well as consumers adjust. Look, I mean, what you can expect going forward definitely is more innovation, more renovation, faster rollouts of innovations into more markets, also more marketing. So we will keep investing into growth platforms into the core. And generally, what we do, we control what is in our control, and we execute that brilliantly. And whatever is thrown at us from the outside in terms of cost increase, et cetera, we will take price, we will adjust promotions, we'll adjust price impacts, et cetera, to drive growth balancing RIG and pricing. But you should expect, in general, less pricing and more RIG going forward as we work towards this 2% RIG midterm guidance.
And on the specific H2 RIG question, and while we don't guide that precisely, what I would say is we've had a couple of one-off impacts in Q2. We do have slightly tougher comps in the second half. And we have ever-improving momentum vis-a-vis the category because of all the actions that Philipp was just talking about. So if you put all of that together, we feel confident about our RIG performance.
Thanks, Celine. That concludes our Q&A session. I will pass over to Philipp for some concluding remarks.
Yes. Thanks, David. And thanks all for your questions. Look, just to conclude, you have seen us talk a lot about execution and execution is improving and this is driving the growth. We have delivered good OG and RIG over the last 4 quarters, which we're happy about. We are on track to deliver our 2026 guidance. Strategy is very clear, and now it's all about consistent delivery quarter after quarter, half after half, year after year. Thank you very much, and have a great day.
Nestlé — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
H1 2026: execution is improving—organic growth and cash flow strengthened, guidance tightened for organic growth; focus on RIG-led expansion.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Organic sales: 3.6% in H1 2026 (sales growth excluding M&A and FX)
- RIG: 1.5% in H1; accelerated from 1.2% in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2 (RIG = real internal growth)
- Pricing: 2.1% in H1
- UTOP margin: 16.4% in H1, down 10 basis points year‑on‑year (underlying trading operating profit)
- Cash / debt: Free cash flow CHF 3.4bn; net debt CHF 56.3bn
🎯 What Management Says
- Execution: Management says execution is improving and is the main driver of stronger RIG and organic growth.
- Portfolio focus: Sharpening the portfolio—Waters partnership and selective divestments to concentrate on Coffee, PetCare, Nutrition and Food & Snacks.
- Reallocate savings: Cost savings are slightly ahead of plan (CHF 1.7bn cumulative); extra savings are being reinvested into marketing and growth platforms.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Top‑line guidance: Organic growth tightened to 3.0%–4.0% for 2026 (previously "around 3% to 4%").
- Profitability: Full‑year UTOP margin expected to improve versus 2025; H2 margin broadly similar to H1.
- Cash & savings: Free cash flow expected > CHF 9bn for 2026; target CHF 2bn cumulative savings in 2026 and CHF 3bn by end‑2027; FX drag ~3% on reported sales full year at current rates.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- PetCare / US inventory: US retailer destocking and earlier pre‑buying created lumpiness; management calls remaining destocking largely one‑off and sees improving sell‑out data.
- Coffee / Nespresso: Pricing is staggered; recent Starbucks price moves caused short‑term elasticity but RIG typically recovers; Nespresso growth driven by Vertuo (focus on household penetration) and management expects continued consumer acquisition.
- China & Europe: China stabilized after inventory reductions but categories still weak; a customer delisting in Europe was described as a phasing/one‑off effect and not quantified at group level.
⚡ Bottom Line
Nestlé reports cleaner execution and improving RIG, with strong cash generation and a tightened organic growth range. The story hinges on continued execution: converting marketing and innovation investments into sustained RIG, resolving one‑off retail/inventory noise (US PetCare, European delistings), and managing commodity/FX swings.
Nestlé — 23rd annual dbAccess Global Consumer Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay. All right, everyone. Well, glad everyone can make this afternoon session. And it's my pleasure to sit here and introduce Philipp Navratil, the CEO of Nestlé to the conference. And Philipp, thank you very much indeed for coming to Paris and joining us this year.
You've obviously been CEO for 9 months now, but you've been with the company for 25 years. There's an argument that perhaps culturally Nestlé hadn't modernized as quickly as it should have done over that time period. As you came into the role, what -- maybe you could give us some insights of the aspects of performance that needed improving in the company? And what is it in the culture that you're trying to instill that was missing before?
Yes. So first of all, thanks for having me, Tom. So it's a pleasure to be here. And look, when I joined Nestlé, more or less, 9 months ago as the CEO and have been at the company for 25 years. And what was definitely necessary in what we're doing as a team. So that is all progressing. We're focusing on growth, and that is RIG led growth, which RIG is the mix between volume and mix. So that is what we're focused on.
And that was not so clear at the beginning. So we had some distractions, which were businesses that were not really making sense. We were doing some efforts to tweak margin on the side. But the view is really RIG led growth will solve most of the metrics that we want to drive into the right direction and will also generate most shareholder value going forward. So think about growth, solving for cash, think about growth, solving for market share, losses that we suffered from. Think about cash also driving profit into the right direction. So growth is really the metric that we follow on.
Then we also took efforts in simplifying and making clear we're more focused as a company. So I said at the full year, so we're focusing basically on four big businesses that we embark on for Coffee, where we have a strong and we'll talk about Coffee later on. We have Pet Food, we have Nutrition, and we have Food and Snacks. So these are the four businesses. And as you all know, we are disposing of waters, we're disposing of ice cream, we're disposing of mainstream vitamins, minerals and supplements because those are parts of the portfolio that don't fit into our strategic priorities anymore, on return, on cash intensity on just being a distraction.
Then we're simplifying how we are organized as well at Nestlé, because Nestlé is a big matrix and we have often being called as to too complex in many ways. But at the end of the day, what we really want is to push everything that has to do with the consumers and everything that has to do with the customers into the markets.
We cannot drive execution from -- way from the lake of Geneva, when it comes to the Philippines, when it comes to Mexico. So that needs to be in the market. But what we will take above market is anything that needs to be at scale and that makes sense that we do it the same way in each and every market, like, for example, content generation, like, for example, how do we run end-to-end workflows that makes sense that we -- it makes sense that we run those the same way in each and every market that we are operating or for example, science or technology-led innovation that single markets can just not do. So those will be done at -- from a central level.
And then on culture that you asked as well, Tom, on culture, there's definitely more competitiveness that we need to do. So Nestlé we have been losing market share for a long time, and that's for me, it's just not acceptable. Losing market share, it might be a great excuse, and it's always an excuse if you're the leader. So if you have high market shares, there's only way down. And I just don't accept that because if you accept that losing market share is okay, then you accept to be losing and that's not okay in our business. So we need to be competitive. And that comes, obviously, through a focus on innovation and focus on better marketing and also how we measure people in the company has changed in terms of really measuring outcomes and making sure that delivering those outcomes lead to excellence. So target setting is important, and that is also how people progress in the company.
So in 3 years' time, what your question is, so Nestlé should be a company that is more focused. Nestlé should be a company that is more agile, more innovative, definitely a better marketer and delivering value to consumers and obviously then also shareholders.
Thank you, Philipp. One of the aspects of change, which to me seems fundamental is this pivot towards younger consumers, both in your product launches and in your marketing. Why was that needed? Why did that have to be something that was a need to focus on that? And what does best-in-class marketing now mean?
That was not looked like, I mean, obviously, brands age with their consumers. And so if you look at some of our brands, definitely, there is a need to rejuvenate those. And all of our brands have that capability.
If you take Nescafé, for example, is a brand that obviously, the consumer base has aged. But as you innovate into that space and as you communicate around that space, you can rejuvenate that and bring young consumers back into the franchise. And that means innovating into the space like we have done, for example, with Nescafé cold coffee concentrates, that is a space that younger generations take up and actually experiment and rebuild their coffee -- favorite coffee beverages at home.
But it's also how we communicate. It's more digital, it's more through influencers. And it's more modern, it's more organic in a sense. So it's not a big TV campaign and you just do that the same way everywhere. And so -- while we think about that, we are also upgrading our marketing muscle and our machinery around marketing. And I've been very vocal to say we're not the best brand builders out there. And when we say we are a company that is a consumer that is driving consumer driven. We want to be a company that actually drives consumers and drives trends.
And so -- hence, innovation needs to do that. So innovation when you think about it, rejuvenating innovation is the one that creates new spaces to tap into within your categories. It is a space where you drive new excitement, bring new consumers in, like we have done, for example, with Dua Lipa on Nespresso. So that is that engagement brings in new younger consumers to the Nespresso franchise that have never ever thought about engaging with Nespresso. And that is how we think about marketing.
And when we look at what marketing really needs to do is we're just not known as the best brand builders in the industry, and we need to become the best brand builders in the industry. And that has to do with using data, using AI, using great content, really building that muscle, and this has to do with bringing in new talent.
And I would say I always -- it's a soft metric. But really, we will get there when we will be having a struggle to hold our marketing talent back because they're being poached by competition. And today, it's not the case. And so we're building that as we speak.
And you've seen maybe some of you have seen one of the good examples is what we have done with KitKat in the past few weeks with that truck that has been stolen and you've seen it was a huge digital viral campaign, and that is how marketing should be, it should be more entrepreneurial. It should be more organic and it should be much faster to really be able to set trends and not only to follow trends.
Okay. So perhaps we can dig a little deeper into the growth platforms that you outlined. So you state that the growth platforms account for about 30% of sales. Maybe if we start on Coffee and Pet, which together in total account for about half of group sales and operating profit.
So in Coffee first, I think many were concerned that some of the growth drivers like cold coffee weren't being captured by yourselves and perhaps some might see it as a stretch of how do you go from cold coffee, RTD to buying a Nespresso machine. What have you done within Coffee to reinvigorate the growth. And obviously, Q1 was strong, but do we need to see pricing come down to see that continue to be strong?
Yes. So if you take a step back on how we decided to drive growth at Nestle is these growth platforms that you alluded to. So we decided that we have growth platforms that are structured in a way that there is underlying higher growth there because they tap into existing consumer trends. One of them is cold coffee, for example.
And across those platforms, we have great brands, great capabilities, science and technology-driven innovation and also good execution muscle in the markets. And so those platforms are 30% of the group sales, and they should be driving high single-digit growth. One of them is cold coffee.
And cold coffee, you have to see as a platform. So what we have done there is really not only having a single innovation that we drive forward, but the whole platform is interesting. And in Coffee, as we have the three best brands that you can have in the industry in terms of coffee. So we have an Nespresso, we have Starbucks, and we have Nescafé. Across those brands, we're building out the cold coffee platform. And so you have executions like the coffee concentrates that we have launched under Nescafé but also under Starbucks. We have launched some products that are soluble that are designed for being soluble in cold water, so you can do cold coffees at home. We have the designed capsules for Nespresso that actually that are flavored that you can play around with and really drive cold coffee. We have ready-to-drink coffee that we're rolling out across the globe through different brands.
And then also, we are expanding need states in Coffee. So Coffee is not A few years ago, when I started in Coffee, coffee was a hot beverage that would wake you up in the morning. Today, coffee has become a very varied way to play around. So you compete with indulgent desserts as you do with refreshment on the other side or energy on the other side, and we have just launched inspired by what Starbucks is doing out of home as well refreshers that are colorful, that are fruit-based and have a coffee concentrate -- green coffee concentrate base.
So Coffee has become a real playground to expand need states. And that is what -- exactly what we're doing across all of those brands. And hence, Coffee is a place that I see long-term structural growth. So it's not -- you have seen our RIG was 2.5 -- 3.5% in Q1, which is strong on top of that, came pricing. And we were able to drive that RIG despite double-digit pricing in some of the markets that we have done. Coffee prices are coming down now. But I believe that driven by innovation, driven by good execution and the power of the brands that we have, we will be able to drive RIG while still capturing some opportunities that we still have in terms of pricing. And then the portfolio helps us actually to be able to cater to any consumer that is out there from very premium to very, very affordable great coffee cups. So I don't think that we will have to wait for prices to come down for volumes to pick up there in coffee.
Thank you. So perhaps then on Pet Care, maybe you could start with highlighting some of the trends we're actually seeing because it's been one of those that has been perhaps held back over the last few years, maybe just looking at U.S., Europe and in EM. And is that a better backdrop to be putting investment into now?
Yes, absolutely. So Pet is another great category for us. And absolutely, there is good structural growth. And I'll go a little bit to the growth drivers across the category and then we can go into some of the geographies you mentioned.
In terms of structure, so pet adoption is still there. So we are leading the Cat segment, and we're #2 in the Dog segment. Dog is a place, I would say it's stable. There's still pet adoption coming in. But what happens there, what you see is that households that have several pets or had several pets, they're not replacing the #2 or #3 when it dies. So that's sort of coming down, but there is still pet adoption coming in.
And you have a trend to smaller dogs in general. But we have seen also Pet coming back slightly. But it's definitely a place that is there's less growth versus Cats. In Cats, we have seen good structural growth in Cat. We have been capacity constrained in Cat for a long time. We're building capacity back as we speak, specifically in the U.S. and Cat is a growing segment. Cat adoption is up.
As people go back to work, cat is just an easier animal to hold at home, and cats are growing in that sense. And so we like cats a lot because cats are also picky eaters in a sense. And so you need more science and technology to actually cater to that successfully. And we see generally three trends also when it comes into Pet.
So in the world, you see less babies and more pets. So that's just an overarching trends, and that's true. People look for companionship. And if you have people that get older and are more lonely also, they look for pets and cat is always a good companion there. And then you see a trend that helps us a lot as well. If you look at how our portfolio is structured, we play in the premium segment, there is this personification of pets, and they're part of the family and people are actually making the extra efforts to treat them well and just spend extra money on their pets. And that's a trend that helps us as well.
And if you look at it in the U.S. for us, we're building back capacity, as I said. So that will also enable us to drive innovation that we have not been able to do because we were capacity constrained, also some more promotion as that category comes down from a very high inflationary led period into more normalization. In Europe, we are much more skewed towards Cats, and we were not capacity constrained and growth is doing just fine.
And in emerging markets, there is opportunities, same as I said before, on Pet adoption. But also there is what we call caloric coverage, which is the percentage of the food intake that the pet takes through pet food is very low. So look at it through a lens of penetration or frequency of consumption. And so there is -- those trends will lead into that, and we're investing into emerging markets where we see pet adoption and the opportunity coming up as well. And that is also skewed more towards Cats, especially in the Asian markets.
Okay. And perhaps one adjacent area or an area within a pet that you've previously highlighted was therapeutics supplements. What is your scale in therapeutics, supplements? And is that somewhere you'd expect to be allocating a bit more capital for M&A?
So Pet Therapeutics is one of those growth platforms I was alluding to before. These are highly specialized products that we normally sell only through veterinary channels or highly specialized. And normally, when consumers go there, their veterinary would prescribe that product to them. So the brand that we talk about is Pro plan. We have that on Cat and on Dog. And normally, that becomes a lifelong subscription. So people would not change that out if they're happy with those products. And those are products that piggyback from our science and technology backbone from the Nutrition division that we have. And they're really smart in taking some of those benefits that R&D comes up with into pet food into driving pet food with health benefits, but also healthy longevity, weight management, all these kind of -- even memory management, et cetera, like that. So these benefits.
And what's interesting there is why -- how do we invest into that? It's obviously classic marketing, but how you grow that area is actually putting more boots on the ground in terms of sales force because we need more people visiting more vets and more vet clinics to actually drive the leads to be able to then have them talk to potential customers that are considering or already bought a pet to give some Pro plan. So it's highly specialized. It's premium and it's scientific products, and we believe we have an edge there, and we're going to invest there. It's high growth.
Okay. Thank you. So if we put Coffee and Pet Care together, how confident are you that either or combined together can outperform staples overall?
I think both. I'm very confident in both of those. I mean both of those have an underlying growth of 3% to 4%, if you ask Euromonitor. And I think we will -- on both of those categories will be definitely growing at the upper end of those. And then if we accelerate, as I said before, through growth platforms like, for example, soluble coffee in emerging markets, cold coffee, portioned coffee in the U.S., those growth platforms, they grow high single digits, some of them grow double digit. We will definitely be able to elevate that growth rate.
Same on Pet Food, very skewed to a premium segment. We do not play in mainstream or economy in Pet Food. That is growing faster than -- so our premium portfolio grows faster than economy and mainstream. And then again, underpinned by additional investment, additional growth in Pet Therapeutics, for example, but also wet cat food where we see a really strong structural growth, we will be able to outperform the market on both of those. I'm confident long term on both Pet and Coffee.
Okay. Thank you. So looking at Nutrition now, which in your presentation was the area you gave the highest -- put the highest growth rate, potential growth rate on of category growth of 3% to 5% for the full year. It's not been running at 2% RIG, as you stated, seeing pressure on birth rates. And then there is the impact of the product recall this year.
Maybe to begin with, you could cover off, are you seeing any lasting impacts of the recall. And I guess the category overall hasn't done quite as well as you might have expected given the pivot towards Health and Wellness. And perhaps why is that?
Yes. And what's the opportunity? Look, first of all, on the infant formula recall, that's one of the things that should not happen in our industry, and we definitely have to get better, and that's very clear. The learnings are there and we're working on those.
What we have done really well is to get the product back on shelf and to reestablish confidence and trust with consumers, health care professionals hospitals, associations, et cetera, and that is what we're doing. So I do not see a long-term impact on the brands. The category is also such that it recruits every day and every day you lose consumers because this is a category where consumers normally are very short, depending on how many children you have, but it's between -- for one child, normally, it's between 6, 7, 8 months they're in that category, and then you get out of the category, you don't consider it anymore. And then new mothers with their babies come in every day. And so that is what we are rebuilding now.
And obviously, having been off shelf for some time, you lost the cohort of babies that to take through that product range. And we're rebuilding that. We're tracking it. So we're we're seeing it nicely coming back, and we will be back fully recovered by the end of the year for sure.
We're also investing in the brand in terms of bringing influencers, health care professionals into our factories to show them our capabilities in terms of safety and quality, obviously, and also, we're investing in behind marketing campaigns behind the brands that is highly science-driven and also we invest in innovation. So that should go -- that should come back.
But then again, you said it these -- you go into a place there is lower birth rates, and so there is less growth in drinking formula. What I'm excited about in the nutrition space is really adult longevity space, health in general. We have brought -- you have seen we have brought together the Nestle Health Science and the Nestle Nutrition divisions. And that is not moved to drive efficiencies, et cetera, but it's a move to really unlock growth. And we were having two divisions that were playing on the same field. So two divisions playing on protein, two divisions playing on fiber, two divisions playing on creatine, for example. And there are plenty of brands that we had on the Nestle Health Science that are only U.S.-based, and we never managed to leverage those across the borders into Europe.
Think about brands like -- or gain that you would know if you live in the U.S., but you would not know if you live outside the U.S. Vital Proteins is a fantastic brand that has much more leeway and much more growth to go. And so we have these capabilities that we bring together, joined up R&D capabilities, joined up muscle in terms of execution. And then we have beautiful businesses that already drive high single-digit growth like medical nutrition, for example, that are really highly science-based and are very specific to a treatment of post cancer treatment or during the hospitalization, what can you eat and those are tube fed but also can be normally ingested. And these are highly specialized products where we can really make a difference.
And so long term, I see despite lower birth rates, I see the Nutrition space being an exciting space for us to innovate. And this is the core of what Nestlé actually is about and it's about regaining that space. And I believe we can grow that the upper part of that rate.
Okay. Well, you're giving yourselves the funds to invest. You're generating CHF 3 billion of cost savings by the end of 2027. In 2026, you'll have perhaps the most significant incremental funds to spend it must be good for the business to be proactive rather than reactive, I guess, as it has been potentially in the more recent history. Is it just as simple as giving people more money and to spend on A&P and seeing the growth? Or what's the kind of oversight and what's the level of returns that you're expecting to?
Yes, it's not as easy. So the -- what we do is the efficiency generation is an important part of the program because the efficiency generation enables us to actually take additional funds. This year, it's going to be CHF 600 million of additional A&P funds people want like that to be reinvested into those growth platforms to really drive those to high single-digit growth. And that's important.
So it's not about putting those savings through to margin recovery, margin recovery for us come through driving RIG-led growth. So it's a function of driving the growth, which is really important.
And so once we have that money, we deploy it on to those growth platforms. And this is done obviously through smart and discerning target setting, which is important. In the past, Nestlé would set targets, and everyone will get the same target, exactly the same target, which would maybe be right for your business, maybe would be wrong because you would then not lean into driving some of those growth platforms because they might be dilutive at the beginning, but you need the right target to be able to lean in. And then you need the right funds to put against and we're tracking that. So we're tracking that as an Executive Board. And obviously, we then take decisions that we say there's spaces you could invest more and get more growth, great. We do that.
Or there is a space that actually something is not doing right, and we did -- we don't see the growth coming through. So we shift that money to somewhere else. So it comes obviously with the money we give you, but it comes with an app that you deliver against the promise.
And then also what we have done at Nestlé, which helps a lot, we have focused our media spend, for example, from 400 brands that would get media to 100 brands, and it can -- you can say that's still a lot. But we have over 30 brands that have more than CHF 1 billion retail sales. And so they need media and then some other local or regional brands that are big enough to support media, but media campaigns need to be sufficient and they need to drive some results and spreading the money thinly has not turned out as being a good investment.
So we concentrate those additional funds on less businesses. We concentrate those additional funds on less campaigns and get a better ROI on our marketing spend. And that doesn't mean that the 70% of the core business that we call core business doesn't get anything. They will still get money to drive promotions to drive some innovation, but they will just not get additional funds that come from those efficiencies to drive additional growth. But that 70% needs to grow at cruising speed of those categories. And that is how we attach some strings to those additional funds we give out to markets.
Okay. Thank you. So if we look at the external cost environment, you're seeing have been seeing Coffee come down. You're seeing things like energy obviously go up. What are the overall raw material dynamics for you currently? And does that at all affect the net cost savings that you can make? And should we expect some pricing across categories in H2 and into next year?
Yes. That's a big question, look, the -- so if you look at -- if you take a step back and look at our cost structure, 2025 was highly impacted by increasing coffee and cocoa prices, at least for us. And that has somewhat come down. So you have seen cocoa prices come down. You have seen coffee prices come down somewhat.
And so if you look at 2026 for us, net-net commodity price or input cost is actually favorable. So if you compare it to 2025. And so that's why we have said -- you should expect 2026 margin to be higher than 2025 margin and sort of improving through the year as those better costs on those two commodities are coming through.
Now you have obviously some inflationary pressure from other places like the Middle East crisis that we will still have to see. I mean we are hedged. So we are through H1, we are hedged, and some are hedged larger, some are hedged a little bit shorter, but we will have to see how those inflationary pressures come through and then see what that means in terms of pricing that we need to do.
And that's going to be different. It's not going to be, we're going to increase prices just like that. We -- when we do pricing, at Nestle, we take this really responsibly. So it's really done market by market, category by category, depending on competition, depending on the consumer, depending on our capabilities as well. And this is a muscle we have really built during the last years because we have had several rounds of price increases, and it's not about just increasing the list price. It's about using price and pack architecture using our portfolio to drive the mix into the right direction and really drive it in a smart way to make sure we take consumers along and don't lose consumers just because we increase price too much.
And where we see that we increase price too much, we go backwards and make sure we correct that because it's much more expensive. It turns out to win back consumers once we lost them and they walked away because the price value equation was broken. And so we take that responsibly, but we take price where we can take price and we give back price where we need to give back price. And that equation has worked so far and the muscle is a strong one that we have.
And in terms of the conflict in the Middle East, is that something that's at all affected the supply of any key commodities? And is that affecting any demand either in the Middle East or the emerging markets, which might be affected by energy prices going up?
Yes. So in the region itself, so the region itself is about 3% of our sales. we have not seen a lot of demand changes there. The team is really resilient. This is a really resilient team there based in Dubai, but they're basically in that region, which is the whole Middle East is constant crisis. They're really good at managing that.
They have resilient supply chains. We have resilient supply chains everywhere because we normally produce 90% of what we sell locally. So we have really strong relationships with suppliers, et cetera. So we have not seen disruption in the region itself.
But obviously, if you take a step back from that conflict, you will see there is a risk of having supply disruptions or physical supply disruption, I don't -- which I don't see a big risk for Nestlé to be very honest. As far as I can see, again, back to that local anchoring of supply chains and strong relationships where our scale is important.
Then there is obviously the consumer, and that will have to monitor carefully. We have not seen a big shift so far. But as you mentioned, some emerging markets, definitely in markets where fuel prices and fuel has a bigger share of wallet of people, people react.
And for example, in the Philippines, you see consumers staying more at home, they will not take transport or their vehicle to go to the office or working from home. Shopping closer to home, eating more at home. And these are all things that, although it will suppress some of the growth, but this should all lead into our portfolio and enable us to gain market share in those markets because when people eat at home and when people shop closer to their markets, that is where we are present, and that is where we -- our brands play a role. And again, this is a playbook that we have played many, many times, and we're good at that. And normally, in those moments, we gain share.
And then you have the other pressure, which is more input cost pressure when you have beyond fuel packaging materials for the secondary effects of packaging material, fertilizer cost increase that will have an impact not this year and probably started to come in next year. But there will be an increase in input costs depending on where fertilizer ends up in terms of costs. So you will have that and that you have to put in the scale when you think about your margin.
But then again, where we can increase price where we can increase -- we increase price where we can increase price. And then we're also always driving efficiencies that will also help us further offset some of those costs. So it's something we monitor really closely, especially the consumer part, because this can change quickly, but I believe with the portfolio that we have and the capability that we have to price correctly, we -- and also have the right product assortment, we should be well equipped there.
Okay. Thank you. Well, perhaps in the time that we have left, we can pivot towards AI and the use of it within Nestlé. If you look at the investments that you've made so far, what areas are you making those in? And is that more in cost savings operations or demand creation?
Look, it's definitely both. I mean it definitely was a shift from using AI to drive efficiencies and to disrupt some of the processes into how do we actually make sense of everything that we have, and pivot to drive growth. And that's exactly what we're doing. So we're connecting. We have a really strong database. 20 years ago, Nestle, put one ERP into the whole company. So we have over 90% of the business run through SAP. And that gives us a really strong unified database, and we have -- we're really data-rich in that sense. And so what's now up is to use AI and to really drive those end-to-end workflows, making sense of that data foundation to really make sure we have the right data foundation to use AI to actually accelerate the business and to drive processes more uniformly and more efficiently, more -- in a more agile way using above-the-market shared service centers.
And so AI is enabling that internally, really connecting the data and making sure we can leverage that, not only to drive efficiencies, we'll do that as well. But to take better decisions to spend time on those things that really make a difference in driving the business forward and generating growth.
And it would be very interesting to hear your observations on the use of Agentic AI either on the side of procurement by retailers or on the side of product discovery by consumers. How do you see that impacting your business?
It's going to be a big impact. It's a big change. And if you think about sort of two aspects to retailers are using it, obviously, to make a better consumer experience for their shoppers. Shoppers are using it to purchase goods and products.
And I think we have an advantage there. If you think about Agentic AI or LLM as a new consumer, because if you would do marketing in the past or still, you would think about film, visuals, influencers, that would sort of a person will respond to that and engage with the product or the service. LLMs don't react to visuals and don't react to that kind of impulse but what they consume very fast and very efficiently is huge amounts, vast amounts of data. And that is what we have.
So if you think about the advantage that I see for large companies like ours is we have tons of scientific literature and scientific information on our products. We have all of the information, how it's sourced, where it's sourced from how it's produced, where does it come from? So all of that information, you can actually use to have LLM consume that and then playing it back to consumers that ask LLM, can you buy me what's the best chocolate and buy that for me or a sustainable chocolate or whatever. You have to make sure you're in the right space there. But I think the information we can put out there is definitely there.
And we have products today in our -- how we produce them, we have products that have birth certificate. So each and every product that comes out, so for example, think about coffee pods. That has a unique code on it and you know exactly what the machine specifications where when it was produced, what is the input that went in. So you have all of that information that can be actually consumed by LLM and inform the consumer better.
And I think Agentic, if you look at retail as well, I mean that's maybe a dream, but going forward, as we deploy agents and retail -- our retail partners deploy agents to make the experience better. In the future, I believe, and we're testing that at low scale, but that's going to come that those agents actually, they will work together to work for a better assortment for a better consumer experience for a better supply chain for a more efficient supply chain to making sure the promotions are executed the right way. So those agents should and must at some stage, work together, especially if some of our retail partners will share the same data platforms.
And that will become the common way of working, I think, going forward. And we're testing that using our relationships with our technology partners as well.
Thank you fascinating and obviously going to continue to be ever more important. We're unfortunately running out of time. But Philipp, thank you very much indeed. Are there any closing remarks you'd like to make about Nestlé's potential...
Look, very quick. So what you would have heard today and what you hear me say is our actions are starting to work. You've seen strong Q1 so far. These are early green shoots. And so there is still much to do, so actions are working. We have a clear strategy that we are deploying clear priorities, and we're really focused on RIG-led growth. And I think that is what the team is focused on and what we are relentlessly following.
We are accelerating our execution in the markets but also everywhere that we can execution is important. So we need to execute that strategy. And our performance is improving. So we expect some of the actions that you have seen focus on less priorities, but priorities that really can make a difference and accelerate the growth rate of the company expect the company to grow and create value for the consumers and obviously U.S. as our shareholders.
Thank you very much. Always a pleasure, and thank you very much.
Nestlé — 23rd annual dbAccess Global Consumer Conference
CEO Philipp Navratil outlines a sharper, RIG-led growth strategy: focus on Coffee, Pet Food, Nutrition and reinvest savings into marketing, innovation and AI.
🎯 Key Message
- Message: Management is refocusing Nestlé on RIG‑led growth (volume plus mix), simplifying the portfolio and decentralizing execution to markets while keeping scale functions central. Savings will be redeployed into higher-impact brands, digital marketing and AI to accelerate growth and regain market share.
⚡ Strategic Highlights
- Portfolio: Concentrating on four pillars—Coffee, Pet Food, Nutrition and Food & Snacks—and divesting non-core lines (waters, ice cream, mainstream supplements).
- Marketing: Pivot to younger consumers via digital, influencer and faster, more entrepreneurial campaigns; fewer brands will get concentrated media spend.
- Capital: CHF3bn cost savings target by 2027 with ~CHF600m of incremental A&P reinvestment in 2026 to fund growth platforms.
🔍 New Information
- Details: Growth platforms represent ~30% of sales and aim for high‑single‑digit growth; Coffee and Pet are key drivers. Infant‑formula availability being rebuilt and management expects brand recovery by year‑end. Nestlé sees 2026 margins improving versus 2025 as coffee/cocoa costs ease.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Culture & GTM: CEO stresses competitiveness, clearer targets and devolving consumer/customer execution to markets; performance tied to measurable outcomes.
- Coffee & Pet: Coffee strategy spans Nespresso/Starbucks/Nescafé across cold coffee, concentrates and RTD; Pet focus on premium, cat growth and therapeutics sold via vets.
- Risks & Pricing: Management expects selective, market‑by‑market pricing, hedged H1 exposure, and will use pack architecture to protect volumes; geopolitical and input‑cost volatility remain monitored risks.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Conclusion: This was a strategic roadmap show: early execution appears positive (Q1 "green shoots"), with clear capital reallocation toward high‑growth platforms and marketing. Execution risk, commodity swings and the nutrition recall remain watch items, but successful delivery could drive margin recovery and share gains.
Nestlé — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Nestlé's 3-month 2026 Sales Update. I'm David Hancock, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Philipp Navratil, CEO; and Anna Manz, CFO.
Before we get started, please take a moment to review the disclaimer on Slide 2.
Let me quickly take you through our short agenda. We'll start with an overview of the key messages from Philipp before Anna reviews the 3-month sales in more detail. We will then open up the lines for Q&A.
With that, I'll hand over to Philipp.
Thank you, David. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. We have started the year well. Our performance demonstrates that our RIG-led growth strategy is delivering in a complex and uncertain environment.
Before turning to the details, I would like to thank our people around the world for their continued dedication and focus as well as our customers and consumers for their trust.
Let me start with the key messages for the quarter. Growth momentum continued with organic growth of 3.5% and RIG of 1.2%. Our performance is broad-based. RIG was positive across all zones and categories, except infant formula within Nutrition, which was impacted by the recall. By category, coffee was the star with recovering volumes and positive mix. Emerging markets also continued to stand out, driven again by RIG.
The infant formula recall impacted performance in the quarter as expected. We acted quickly, product availability is back to normal, and we are seeing new parents coming to our brands, as they enter the category. So Q1 was a quarter of focused execution and good momentum. At the same time, it is clear that geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties have increased. Taking these together, we're maintaining our full year 2026 guidance.
Here is a reminder of our strategic priorities. As I have said before, my highest priority is RIG-led growth. There is still much to do in order to drive this sustainably. Let me talk about what we have done in Q1. We are accelerating investments behind our growth platforms. These are areas where structural growth drivers, competitive advantages and our strong innovation pipelines come together, driving high single-digit organic growth or better.
Elsewhere, we are addressing affordability and driving premiumization by sharpening our price pack architecture. We are investing more behind fewer, stronger brands, and our marketing transformation is a key enabler. Winning portfolio is another priority. We are making progress on the Waters and VMS disposals, and we have announced this morning that we have reached an agreement to sell Blue Bottle Coffee. All this is underpinned by disciplined execution.
I have talked about clear accountabilities and aligning incentives with delivery of sustainable, high-quality growth. To support this, we needed to strengthen our KPIs and performance management system, and this is now fully rolled out. Taken together, action on these priorities positions us well to deliver our plans for this year and beyond.
And with that, I will now hand over to Anna to go through our Q1 performance.
Thanks, and good morning. We delivered 3.5% organic sales growth in the quarter, with RIG of 1.2% and Pricing of 2.3%. Sales were significantly impacted by foreign exchange. Last year, the Swiss franc strengthened sharply in early Q2. So assuming current spot rates, the year-on-year impact will reduce significantly from now on. We currently expect a full year currency headwind on sales of around 5%, which is a little less than we expected in February as the Swiss franc has weakened since then.
Looking at organic growth in a bit more detail. On RIG, we maintained our second half momentum despite the infant formula recall and the U.S. Petcare phasing, both of which I called out at the full year. The chart on the right shows RIG for the first quarter by category. The impacts in Nutrition and Petcare were compensated in particular by coffee. You see the standout performance Philipp mentioned with 3.5% RIG in Q1 compared to less than 1% last year. Food & Snacks also improved, delivering RIG above 2% for the first time since 2021.
Let me get into a bit more detail. Performance in Coffee was very strong. Pricing continues to contribute positively, although its impact will ease as we progress through the year. RIG momentum is improving, supported by the strength of our brands. Take Nescafé as an example. In the U.S., we had very strong pricing and double-digit RIG in Q1, even in a more difficult consumer environment. This reflects smart price pack architecture and strong in-store execution as well as occasionally expanding innovation like Nescafé Gold Espresso.
Overall, Petcare growth was subdued during 2024 and most of 2025, but has showed signs of improving momentum over the last 2 quarters. Q4 and Q1 are distorted by customer order phasing in the U.S., which boosted growth in Q4 by a bit more than 1 percentage point, and that reversed in Q1. Over the 2 quarters, the effect is neutral. The improvement in Petcare is largely coming from the U.S., and this is driven by additional capacity coming online, allowing us to finally service unmet demand in wet cat, where the market is growing. And we see that same strong demand for wet cat in Europe, too. And here, we have greater skew towards cat and fewer capacity issues and so continue to deliver strong RIG-led growth.
As expected, our performance in Nutrition was largely driven by the impact of the infant formula recall, and I'll cover this in a bit more detail later. Outside of this, Medical and Adult Nutrition performed well and the combination of Nutrition and the former Nestlé Health Science business will help us unlock further growth.
And finally, Food & Snacks. Overall organic growth has been relatively stable over the last 5 quarters, but the quality of that growth has been improving. RIG was negative in Q1 and Q2 last year, but has been improving progressively in the last 3 quarters to reach more than 2% in Q1. A major factor has been our confectionery business returning to growth, as we've moved through our pricing actions.
Before moving to our zones, here's a view by geography. In developed markets, growth is a bit lower, reflecting the softer macroeconomic environment and weaker consumer confidence, but our performance versus our categories is improving. On the other hand, as Philipp mentioned, we're seeing good growth in emerging markets. Excluding China, OG is close to 7% with almost 3% RIG. In most of these markets, momentum in our categories is supportive, and the actions that we're taking are driving growth and share gains.
Turning to the zones. In AMS, we delivered another good quarter with an improving momentum and positive OG across all markets and categories. RIG has strengthened as a result of our focused investments despite the difficult consumer environment in the U.S. Many of the category dynamics I mentioned for the group are playing out in AMS. I'll highlight Coffee and Petcare in particular. I referenced Nescafé in the U.S., but the strength in Coffee is actually really broad-based. In each of our other large coffee markets, including Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Canada, RIG was mid-single digit or better.
In Petcare, underlying momentum is improving, driven by a good category growth in cat and by our super premium brands ONE and Fancy Feast.
In AOA, there are a few moving pieces, and this chart doesn't quite tell the full story. The infant formula recall accounts for all of the slowdown in growth from Q4 to Q1. And overall growth is still impacted by the continued correction of trade inventory in China. That aside, we're performing well. This is especially true in some of our emerging markets, including India, Indonesia and Central and West Africa as well as developed markets such as Japan.
Market dynamics have generally been supportive, and we're outperforming. Take Maggi in India, which delivered strong double-digit OG and RIG. Maggi is a loved brand in India, and we've built on that by combining affordable price points and flavor innovation such as spicy noodles to capture rural and younger consumers.
In Zone Europe, growth was solid. Here, we are continuing to deliver great growth in Petcare, as I already mentioned, and Coffee is recovering nicely with growth still price-led, but with improving RIG. The growth in Pet and Coffee was partly offset by the impact of the infant formula recall and a competitive environment in food. And finally, but importantly, we've largely navigated the annual price negotiations in Europe with limited disruption.
Turning to the globally managed businesses. In Nespresso, growth is still led by pricing, which is expected to moderate as we begin to annualize increases from 2025. RIG recovered in the quarter, partly due to an increase in active consumers in Europe as well as the reversal of negative customer order phasing from Q4 last year. For Nespresso, the big news of the quarter was the launch of our new global brand ambassador, Dua Lipa. We've had a great response from a much broader consumer demographic.
This collaboration, along with others like KitKat with Formula 1, reflect our new approach to brand building, investing in the right partnerships, which elevate our brands and engage a broad spectrum of consumers and especially those younger demographics.
Finally, in Nestlé Waters and Premium Beverages, we delivered solid growth, led by our international brands of Sanpellegrino with innovations like CIAO! and the continued expansion of Maison Perrier.
Turning to the infant formula recall. The recall was executed rapidly during the first quarter. Our priority has been to replenish shelves and ensure parents have access to the products that they need. And as of April, product availability is back to normal. The overall impact of the recall in Q1 was around 90 basis points on organic growth, and about half of this reflected the direct effects of sales returns, temporary stock shortages and the subsequent replenishment. The remainder was driven by lower consumer demand.
Our teams have done a great job engaging with health care professionals, retailers and consumers to rebuild trust in our brands. And this is key to supporting a recovery with new consumers recruited continuously as babies enter the category every day. We estimate that our infant formula sales are currently down around 10% or so due to the consumer impact, and we're already seeing early signs of improvement and expect to fully recover by the end of the year.
Now turning to guidance. We're pleased with the Q1 growth performance, especially our RIG delivery. At the same time, we're clearly facing increased geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. The conflict in the Middle East will have some impact on commodity and distribution costs and possibly on consumer behavior, but it's too early to know the full extent of this. Taking into account the momentum in the business alongside these uncertainties, our guidance for 2026 remains unchanged.
We expect organic sales growth to be in the range of around 3%, up to 4%, with accelerating RIG compared to 2025, driven by our focused growth plans. On UTOP margin, we expect to improve versus 2025 with strengthening in the second half. Lastly, we expect to deliver over CHF 9 billion of free cash flow.
And with that, I'll hand over to David to open the Q&A.
Thanks, Anna. So we'll now open the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] And the first questions come from Tom Sykes from Deutsche Bank.
2. Question Answer
Firstly, just on the cost saving program. Sorry if I missed something, but could you just maybe outline when is the point that you reach the maximum run rate of cost savings or rather when is the point in the year or the next 2 years, where you have the biggest delta in cost savings, please? Is that sort of end '26? Or is it run rate in '27?
And then, just on the pivot towards younger consumers, both in your innovations and in your marketing, we can obviously see that in some of the materials, but what -- where on that journey actually are you at the moment? You've obviously spoken before about building out the marketing infrastructure and that taking some time. Could you maybe speak about the level of hiring that you've done there and the changing in the culture of marketing that you've had in the organization, please?
Yes. Thanks, Tom. Look, I'll -- thanks for the questions. I'll give the cost savings one to Anna, and I'll come back on the younger consumers right after.
Sure. Yes. And on the cost savings, Tom, run rate end '27 is when we fully delivered our CHF 3 billion goal. And we're working our way through that, and you will see us sort of progress in a steady way as we work through between now and then.
Good. Thank you. Thank you, Anna. And look, Tom, on recruiting younger consumers, I love the question, and you've seen Anna call out just before some of the actions we're taking in terms of influencers like Dua Lipa for Nespresso, where we actually see that we're speaking to a different cohort of consumers, younger consumers, new consumers that have actually never been in contact with Nespresso coming in to our website, to our stores and being interested about the brand.
You've also seen us last year already engaging with KitKat and Formula 1. And you have seen probably just a few weeks ago, a viral campaign called the KitKat Heist, where actually out of a stolen truck, we made -- the team made a huge viral campaign. And this is part of how we want to run marketing. So it's more led by the team. It's more bottom-up. It's on-tone, and it's more viral. And so we're changing this as we speak.
We have done a review of all of our agencies of all of our partners. We have a few new people in here that support us here. And it also links to innovation, how do we innovate and products like cold coffee, the concentrates that have seen ready-to-drink coffee, some of the air fryer recipes that we're launching, et cetera. These are all products that cater to a younger consumer and are more fun to use, and that's also how we communicate them. So I think we're on a good track. We're not done yet. This is just the beginning, but expect more of that to come because it is working and it starts to show results, as you can see in our Q1 numbers.
Thanks, Tom.
Thank you, Tom. The next question comes from Warren Ackerman from Barclays.
It's Warren here at Barclays. First one is on China. I'm sure you saw the FT article. I was just wondering where -- if you can give us an update in terms of moving to a consumer-led model from distribution push. Where are we on inventories? And how are you engaging with the e-commerce channels of the future like Douyin? And should we still expect that inflection in Q2 on easier comps in China? Or is there still any residual issues? I'm just trying to understand how you're feeling about China. There's obviously been reports that there's kind of delays on the border on infant formula because of enhanced cereulide testing. So just your feeling on that would be great, Philipp.
And then second one, perhaps for Anna, just really on pricing, Anna, you're kind of intimating that pricing will fade from here. Can you maybe share a little bit more your thoughts on where that might happen by kind of category and geography? Is it just kind of -- just rollover pricing, you're not planning to take any new pricing? Slightly surprised given the kind of inflationary comment that you won't see some new pricing. So yes, the first one, China, second one on pricing.
Thanks. Thanks, Warren. I'll start with China. Look, as you say, I mean, we have been making the changes that we promised to make to strengthen the overall business in China. I've been just there 3 weeks ago just to meet the teams and look through our businesses. And what the team is doing is redefining the growth model, as you called out as well. So we're relooking at our route to market, our distribution to really drive consumer pull. That obviously includes launching innovation. We have launched HMO. We have launched new variants under [ title ]. So we're leaning into innovation, into driving growth into new channels like the snacking channel, for example.
As you know, there is a new management team on the ground that is now fully in place to drive this change. And we're correcting the trade inventory and expect that to be done by the end of Q2. There is still some of it to be done, but also expect China to gradually improve during the remainder of the year, as we have said. So I see good progress there on all fronts to bring China back to a consumer-pull, marketing-led model led by innovation and by good marketing investments. And that includes, obviously, the e-commerce channels like Douyin and the others, where the team is launching specific innovations with the right price points that then don't compete with the rest of the offline channels. And that's exactly part of how we wanted to move China into a consumer-pull model.
In terms of your question specific to infant formula and the border, et cetera, remember that infant formula in China, we produce locally. So we have 2 factories in China that are producing for China. So we don't have any issues there. Those factories are running, are back on track. And in China, I saw that myself. The products are back on shelf and consumers are picking them up. So that performance on infant formula in China should improve more. And as I said, we have also launched innovation. During the infant formula situation, we launched HMO under illuma in China during the last few weeks, which should further help the recovery in China.
And I'll pass over to Anna on your pricing question. Thanks, Warren.
Sure. So how to think about pricing? In 2025, we took substantial pricing on coffee and cocoa-related products, so coffee and confectionery because we saw some very significant input cost increases. And so when we talk about rollover pricing, rollover pricing is largely driven by coffee and cocoa. Now, as you know, we didn't take price to cover all of those input costs in 2025 because we were very focused on getting our price points right for the consumer and making sure that we're driving that consumer demand for the long term.
So what you see, as we go into 2026, is we get the benefit of that rollover pricing. And we will continue to look as we do across all of our categories at where we can and should take pricing because the consumer can sustain it, and it's consistent with our momentum. So as we go into 2026, we will take price in different categories and in different markets. We were very clear on that, for example, around pet in the U.S., as we came into the year. And you see that -- us doing that across the board, both across developed and emerging markets category by category.
In terms of looking forward and the impact of the Middle East situation, I guess just maybe a minute on that, I see sort of 3 areas of potential impact, supply chain disruption, which we're seeing some of already; some commodity inflation possibility, which we're seeing some of, but we'll need to keep monitoring; and the potential knock-on impact on the consumer, depending on how things play out. How we think about those 3 impacts? Supply chain, look, this is something we're good at. The combination of our scale and the fact that we largely manufacture locally means that when there is global supply chain disruption, normally Nestlé gains share because we are more able to navigate that environment than others. And our teams are all over that.
With respect to commodity costs, we will monitor where that goes. And as you've just referenced, we're well practiced on the levers to manage commodity cost increases because we've been doing that heavily on coffee and cocoa through 2025. So you'll see us use those same levers of price pack architecture and making sure that we're delivering for the consumer.
And in terms of consumer impact, this is something that we will continue to monitor. We're not seeing too much at the moment aside from maybe in some markets like the Philippines where fuel costs mean that consumers are not leaving home as much. So they're shopping closer to home. And again, this is where Nestlé's proximity to the consumer and our really strong local market leadership is -- means that we're good at adapting to deliver on those changing circumstances.
Thank you, Warren. The next question comes from Guillaume Delmas at UBS.
Two questions for me, please. The first one is on Coffee. So strong performance in Q1. Could you maybe unpack a little bit this performance for us? So particularly, is it down to an improved category growth, improved elasticity? Or is it very much down to your significant market share gains? And still on Coffee, but creamers, can you talk about your performance in the U.S.? Because it seems you were flagging some soft development in Q1. So if you could shed some light on this?
And then my second question, it's on your underperformers. I mean -- maybe, Philipp, if you can provide a bit of an update on where you are with some of these businesses. It seems in Q1, Gerber was still challenged, U.S. frozen also under pressure. So what progress are you seeing? And where would you expect to be at the end of the year for all these businesses?
Thanks, Guillaume. Look, thanks for both the questions. Look, I'll start with Coffee. And indeed, we're very happy with our Coffee performance. You see 9.3% RIG -- OG, 3.5% RIG in that category, which is great. I'm particularly happy about the RIG coming through. And as we -- as Anna just said, we lap some price increases there. So see -- happy to see consumers buying into our category. Look, this is broad-based, the performance on coffee, and it's definitely based on performance across all zones, across almost all markets. And it's strong across all of our brands. So it's Nescafé, Starbucks and Nespresso.
Particularly, Nescafé was very strong. And that is, again, across the board. It's soluble coffee, it's cold coffee under the Nescafé concentrates, ready-to-drink coffee under Nescafé, but then also new launches like Nescafé Dolce Gusto, new innovation. So it's really broad-based. So look, we love this category because it's a category that is resilient. It's a daily habit. Consumers have a coffee habit, and we are able to cater to consumers at all ages across all economic strata and across the globe through our brands and also through our capability to cater to different price points. So that is really what played out here.
And also, we have invested behind those brands. So we have invested behind the 3 of those brands, and that has definitely paid out. Maybe one thing that is important for you as we have 9.3% growth in the first Q. So don't draw a straight line or don't extrapolate that into the future because comps are getting more difficult. And also, we're lapping, obviously, some pricing we have taken. So take pricing will come down. But really happy with that broad-based portfolio and also with the market share gains that came with that growth in many markets. So that's good.
On the creamers part of your question, this is one I'm personally less happy about because obviously, if you look at -- we're doing really well in the U.S. in Coffee, and Coffee-mate is a product that comes to life in coffee. So Coffee-mate has definitely a huge potential. In the U.S. specifically, we had some operational challenges impacting our supply that is due to some issues we had in our older factory there. We're working on it. We're on it, and we see great potential. We have a great Coffee-mate brand with good innovation potential as well, tapping into the growth that coffee is showing in market. So we're working on that to -- for it to come back, but positive about the underlying strength of the brand and the business we have in the U.S.
And your second question then on underperformers, generally, we're working on underperformers to improve their performance. So as you have seen in 2025, since we called out the 18 underperformers, we have made progress on all of those. Some of those have actually fully turned around. So they're not issues anymore. Others have improved, and others are still stubborn. Two of them you have called out. So Gerber is among those. And frozen is not an underperformer. I wouldn't call it like that. It's -- frozen is a category that is subdued in terms of growth. But look, we're working on them.
On Gerber specifically, the team is working on innovation on getting the products back on shelf and expect that to improve towards the end of the year in terms of Gerber. In terms of frozen, we have seen market share gains in some of the areas of our frozen business. As said, the whole category is subdued there. But again, there, we're innovating into the space. And as I said at the full year, we believe in the category. And so we focused on those underperformers, and the improvement on some of those underperforming areas have actually also leaned into the improved performance in Q1. So also the actions we're taking on those underperformers are starting to work.
The next question comes from Callum Elliott at Bernstein.
The first one is on the guidance, please. So very strong start to the year. Clearly, 3.5% OSG with sort of 4.4% underlying ex the formula. And if you just continued at that 4.4% for the rest of the year, you'd be above the high end of your guidance range. You also have, as you said, Philipp, China should get better by the end of Q2. That's probably 50, 60 basis points of contribution. You shouldn't have the pet food destocking beyond Q1. So that's another 20, 30 basis points that could get you to 5-plus, all of which makes the guidance look quite conservative. So are you just being conservative in view of the volatile environment? Or is there actually something concrete that you've seen in the business since the start of the war that's making you really expect a genuine slowdown? So that's the first one.
And the second one is a bit more strategic. You provided some very interesting data on growth by channel. E-commerce really stands out, over 20% of the business now and growing over 15%. So basically, the vast majority of your growth is coming from this one channel. So can you maybe talk a little bit about the dynamics of that e-commerce growth across each region? Obviously, it's a very different channel in different parts of the world. Can you touch on sort of market growth in e-commerce versus your own competitive performance? I presume that 15% is a decent amount of share gain. So just what you're doing to drive that, and any strategic initiatives to ensure that it can persist?
Good. Thanks, Callum. So I'll pass the guidance to Anna. I'll come back on your specific question on the channels. Thanks much.
Thanks, Callum. So we are pleased with the momentum that we have in Q1 and that the actions that we are taking are fundamentally improving our RIG. Equally, it is 1 quarter. And so it needs to be seen in that context. A couple of things to bear in mind as you think about guidance. Firstly, we did take some very significant price last year and -- on coffee and cocoa, and we will not be taking price on coffee and cocoa in the context of commodity increases there at the same level. So that is something to bear in mind.
Also, you asked, are there any sort of specific or obvious significant distorters that we know about? No. There's nothing particularly funny in the Q1 numbers. Otherwise, we would have called it out. But the external environment is uncertain. And our guidance reflects that uncertainty. And while I feel actually that we're very well placed to navigate whatever the external environment is and gain share because actually uncertain external environment is something that we generally outperform in because of our local manufacturing. And because of our deep market knowledge, our local market teams, we'll have to see how all of this plays out from a consumer perspective. And so we've taken all of that together in reiterating our guidance today.
Thanks, Anna. And I'll come back quickly to your questions on channel. So look, e-commerce, also pleased with the performance in e-commerce. This is a growing channel for years now, and it's slowly taking more and more and more of -- in terms of percentage of our sales, and that's broad-based as well. So it's with brick-and-mortar partners, but also with pure players and also growing on in our direct-to-consumer efforts, for example, on Nespresso. And this is due -- there's a few factors playing into that. So we were able to innovate well into the channel, and that includes the right packs that -- you have mixed packs, for example, you have the right outer packs, the right pack size that has worked well.
And we're also collaborating with many e-commerce partners on supply chain and leaning into retail media, which has been working really well because then consumers are on the website or on their phone and then retail media in that sense is a good investment, has good returns on investment there. But there's 2 more channels that I see good growth given where consumers are, so discount channels are definitely doing well. That's across the board, U.S. and Europe, particularly strong growth in discount channels as consumers buy more often and maybe with lower tickets. And we're leaning into -- the same way, we lean into the e-commerce channel with the right assortment, right price and pack architecture there.
And the other one, which is worthwhile calling out is convenience, which is, again, playing into that desire of consumers to shop closer to home, to be able to maybe shop daily, and that works really well. And that is obviously underpinned by our underlying strength in mom-and-pop stores in emerging markets, where we are very well distributed and where the strength of Nestlé's execution and power of brands really comes to play as we showed in -- at the full year results.
So these are the channels where I see growth, but obviously, e-commerce is one of the focus areas, and we're improving as we speak on those channels and customers.
Thanks for the question, Callum.
The next question comes from Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan.
So I would like to come back first on the outlook question. You reiterated, so, around 3% to 4%, and you started very strongly in Q1. How is the -- and Anna, you mentioned that you're not planning to take more pricing in cocoa and confectionery and coffee. But how is the lower cocoa and coffee prices changing potentially the outcome on the full year on pricing? And I appreciate maybe you don't have a crystal ball about cost inflation, but probably I'm sure you've done some scenario analysis. So like, Q1, it seems will be peak pricing. Please correct me if wrong. And then, what should we think about as you look at the RIG comp H1 versus H2 and pricing decelerating? Like could it be that H2 OSG is slower than H1 OSG? So if you could help on the pace of your growth through the year.
And my second question is as well on margin outlook. So to what I was saying, we have lower cocoa and coffee prices. Is that going to help in any shape or form in the first half? Are you still expecting gross margin to be down? And you say that margin will be more weighted to the second half, but could we have EBIT margin up in the first half?
And then, again, on scenario analysis, how should we think about potential cost increases? And where do you see that, if there's any way you could quantify? Let's say, with oil prices, let's say, of $100, what would that mean for you?
Thanks, Celine. I think, Anna, that you're...
Yes. So just to step through those. So starting with Pricing. So we did take significant price on coffee and cocoa because we saw significant inflation last year. That rollover pricing will obviously benefit Q1 and then erode as you go through the year. As I said, we will continue to take price where we feel that we are able to do that. And you see us do that, but it will be on coffee and cocoa, more muted because we have less significant commodity increases.
Equally, it won't be 0 because we didn't cover all of our inflation last year because we were really focused on delivering for the consumer. So where we see those areas where the consumer can tolerate price, we will obviously adjust. And it is very, very much a by market, by category choice that we are monitoring all of the time. So I can't give you an exact shape because this is the power of Nestlé, this is the power of the teams in the markets that are looking at the competitive position locally and the promo position locally, and they are taking agile decisions based on where the consumer is at a point in time.
And frankly, in a macroeconomic environment like this one, that is really, really important. So what that means for the shape of the OG through the year, I won't guide on, but you know the moving pieces of pricing, RIG and comps.
In terms of margin, so -- putting the Middle East piece to one side for a minute, maybe just the moving pieces around our margin, so yes, we have the benefit of lower coffee and cocoa prices as we move into 2026. But remember, we were hedged. And so that benefit will come through the year weighted towards the end of the year, and really, we see the full benefit in 2027.
Also, remember that tariffs continue. And so in the first half, tariffs are a headwind until we lap the tariff environment as we move into the second half. Of course, we're still focused on cost efficiencies, and they come as we find them. So it can be lumpy, but they come through the year. And I've just talked about the pricing piece.
So all of that taken together would say that our margin should improve as we move through the year, as I said at the full year. Now, what are the implications of the situation in the Middle East? Well, they're changing daily. And therefore, it is unhelpful to quantify them. But as I said, supply chain disruption, we're managing that absolutely fine. And in many ways, it's -- we are better at it than many. And so we should outperform the competitive set in that respect.
In terms of commodity cost inflation, again, it's varying. It's not just fuel. We see it on some agricultural commodities, too, particularly the ones that can be used swapped out for fuel. But again, this is currently the normal course of our business, and we're managing movement in commodities all of the time, and we have the playbook to manage that as it happens. So taken all together, that's why we're comfortable reiterating our guidance today, including our margin guidance.
The next question comes from Jeremy Fialko at HSBC.
A couple from me. First one, coming back to the guidance, at the full year, there was this rider you put on the guidance saying additional impact from the IMF recall is uncertain and could drive OG towards the lower end of the range. Now, it seems though you've gone through Q1, you know what the situation with the recall is. It seems kind of as you had anticipated it was going to be. So does that mean you can kind of take away that sort of rider to the guidance, which means that you'd be at the lower end of the range, even if you're not doing anything else with the guidance?
And then secondly, just on the IMF recall, perhaps you could just go into a bit more detail about which of the markets where you've seen a good recovery, you're back to kind of sell-out of consumer off-take roughly as it was before? And which are the markets where perhaps it's taking you a little bit longer to get back to where you were previously?
Thanks, Jeremy. I'll have Anna start with your guidance question. I'll come back on IMF recall.
So, in the context of guidance, yes, at the full year, we said around 3%, up to 4%, and we said that there was, at that time, uncertainty around the infant formula recall, which could drive us to the bottom of the range. Our guidance is unchanged. It's still around 3%, up to 4%. We are now more certain on the infant formula recall. So we've taken away the sentence that specifically addressed the infant formula recall. Equally, in the current macro environment and the current geopolitical environment, there's significantly increased uncertainty. And so taken all together, our guidance is unchanged.
Yes. And Jeremy, in terms of the infant formula recall, I mean, you have seen us acting quickly on the recall. And the teams have been focused on getting the products back on shelf, which is done basically. So we're back on shelf and in consumers' reach with all of our brands. And that's true across all countries. So I would say the statements that we make on infant formula that's certain for all of the countries that we have recalled and have had the recall.
And in all of those countries, we have been working closely with health care professionals and institutions, hospitals, et cetera, to make sure products are back on shelf and also are back in their trust. And so that has been the focus, and that's true for all of the impacted countries. So no difference there, and we're tracking that. And as I said, we should see that normalizing through the year, and we should recover every day as consumers come into that category every day.
The next question comes from David Hayes at Jefferies.
So 2 from us. Just firstly on the emerging market strategy and the performance step-up. We obviously see in India the details there, you spent a lot more money in A&P spend, I think, up 50%, which is clearly working there, great performance from a top line perspective. But just understanding, is that kind of indicative of what you're seeing in terms of allocating more money to those growth opportunities? And I guess, if that's working, the A&P spend uplift, could we see it moving up ahead of that sort of 9% of sales level as that kind of gains momentum and starts to reward?
And then the second question was just around the growth platform, growth versus the core non-growth platforms. Obviously, you gave that indication of relative performance for the full year. Just wonder whether you can give us that split. I don't think I've seen it at least for the first quarter.
Yes. Thank you, David. Look, exactly. I mean, in performance like India, or places like India, this is -- you can call India growth platform in itself. And so this is definitely places where we will invest the right amount, and you have seen the results that, that drives. So India definitely is a place where we have great brands, as you have heard Anna talk about, for example, Maggi in India, the importance of Maggi in India. We have the route to market. We have the distribution, and as said, the brands and innovation as well to invest behind. So that is definitely places where we will step up in investment. And you see it definitely shows results.
So will that be -- we expect those results coming through going forward? Emerging markets, I have called out emerging markets as a strong performer for Q1. But those markets will also be -- and they're already feeling the pressure on the situation in the Middle East. So we'll have to see how the consumer reacts, but we're really well positioned in those markets to win and keep gaining share and keep overperforming and outperforming in those markets. But India is definitely a place that we see huge potential going forward.
On the growth platforms, in general, what you have seen us do, and we have said that since a few months now that we have stepped up the percentage of sales that we're accelerating. So that's now 30% of sales that is accelerated through the growth platforms program, as you can call it. And these are places, as you know, that we see higher structural growth and where we also have the brands and innovation and the capabilities to deliver more growth. And those growth platforms in Q1 have also delivered high single-digit organic growth, and they're growing faster than the rest of the company. So what we have started to do is actually working.
And I'm happy to see that the step-up from accelerating 10% of sales to 30% of sales is also showing results. So where we put our money, we see the acceleration, and that is the strategy that we're driving with focus going forward, 2026 and beyond, as we keep on innovating and delighting consumers across the world.
We take the next question from Olivier Nicolai at Goldman Sachs.
Two questions, please. First of all, could you comment on the underlying trend you're seeing in Petcare in the U.S.? I remember you mentioned at the full year results, some early sign of an increase in cat adoption. Are you able to comment on this further since we are in April now?
And then secondly, I think, Philipp, in your -- at the beginning of your presentation, you mentioned a few potential disposals. Could you perhaps just summarize the various current process in place in terms of also the timing and how advanced they are? I think you mentioned the Water at the last results, you mentioned the remaining ice cream business. And now, obviously, you added the mainstream VMS. And then, specifically on Blue Bottle Coffee, are you selling the entire business and not only the cafes? Or are you considering keeping the brand?
Yes. Thank you. Look, the underlying trend on Petcare, I'll give to Anna because she likes to talk about the cat adoption. So I'll give that to Anna. I'll come back on the disposal specifically.
Yes, I like pets. So yes, this is an area I follow closely. So in the U.S., since post-COVID, we've seen an increase in cat adoption because it's much easier to go back to work and have a cat at home than a dog. And so where we are currently is we're seeing cat adoption growing between 2% and 3%, which is strong. And actually, for the first time in a decade, the number of cats as pets in the U.S., has surpassed dogs, which is an interesting data point. So yes, good underlying momentum in pet care in the U.S. And even more importantly for us, we need the capacity in order to be able to deliver on that opportunity. And as you're seeing the capacity that we have been building coming online through the first half, you're seeing our performance accelerate in the U.S. driven by that performance in wet cat.
Good. And on the disposals that you mentioned, look, on Waters, you have seen us going out and looking for partners. So we're looking at that as we speak. And that business is still -- we should expect that to be consolidated by 2027. So Waters has been launched.
Same for mainstream VMS that we are engaging on that one. So progress on both of those. And as you know, these have been -- these are -- these have been difficult or complicated carve-outs. And so I'm happy with the progress we have made on that.
Same on ice cream. So we're progressing on those as well. So expect some of those during 2026 as well. And specifically, on Blue Bottle, you've seen us -- we sell the whole business, but we also -- you see -- and that has been launched on Nespresso. We have Blue Bottle branded capsules on Nespresso that are quite successful, and we intend to keep that business sold through Nestlé. But all the cafes are obviously in the perimeter of the sale.
The next question comes from Jon Cox at Kepler Cheuvreux.
The question -- I'm going to keep coming back to the guidance question, but maybe catch it in a different way. Anna, you mentioned this is only 1 quarter, and you've done excluding what happened with formula, above 4%. We've had now 3 quarters where you've been 4% and above.
And then, in terms of volume mix, again, if you exclude formula, now suddenly, we're at the 2% plus mark on volume mix. Philipp, I know you're saying there's still work to be done. I'm just wondering, where you think you are in this journey to be able to consistently deliver that, somewhere around 2% RIG and the 4% organic? It looks like you're getting pretty close from where I think a lot of us are sitting.
Then a couple of more technical questions. Just on formula, you mentioned a 10% sales decline currently, which is obviously a 60, 70 bps headwind base today. I know it sequentially will improve. I wonder what gives you confidence it will improve? And I wonder if you could break out the areas because I guess, for example, China probably we're down more than 10%, Europe may be doing a bit better.
And then, just a last technical question, just on plastics. There's -- plastic prices are up quite substantially, shortages of PET in Asia. Just -- can you just remind me where we are on plastics as a share of COGS? I tend to think it's somewhere around 10% plus or so. And are you seeing any disruption on plastics in Asia at all at this point? Or do you have sort of long-term agreements? I guess, you do anyway? So anything on plastics would be helpful.
Good. Thanks, Jon. I'll pass guidance to Anna. I'll come back quickly on infant formula overall and then on plastics as well.
Sure. So with respect to guidance, so yes, we have done 3 quarters now that have had good underlying performance. And we have had quite a lot of price benefit in those 3 quarters. And so what we had said to you is to get to a sustainable 4-plus growth, we needed to consistently accelerate our RIG growth to 2% plus. And you see that the actions that we are taking are working and that our RIG performance is improving. And so I think we feel good about that, and it makes us feel comfortable about the delivery of our medium-term guidance. There is a good, clear path that the strategy will get us to delivering on that.
Of course, we've got to navigate a period of falling price, and we've got to continue to accelerate that RIG. And as time goes by, we'll lap stronger and stronger comps. But I think what you can see in our strategy is the actions that we're taking are working and that our medium-term guidance is the right one.
Good. And then maybe overall on infant formula, and you let me know if that answers your question or you need more specifics on numbers from Anna. But on infant formula, how we see consumers coming back is what we -- the actions we have taken in infant formula working closely with health care professionals, hospitals, institutions as well, obviously, brings trust back into our brands and into the quality of our brands.
Also, it's important to remember the category is such that consumers come into the category and out -- go out of the category every day. This is a category where consumers, they stay in the category or they use infant formula between 6 to 9 months. And so the game really where we are successful is recruiting every day everywhere in the world when mothers consider feeding their baby with infant formula. So that is how we see this coming back. And we see this already happening.
And as I said, we are back on shelf. Consumers can pick up our brands, and doctors are prescribing those brands to our consumers. And that is consistent across the world. And as we are on shelf, we see this coming back step by step, as we recruit new consumers every day into our brands. And so -- and when we say we expect this to be back to normal by the end of the year, this is the recovery we're seeing and tracking every month.
I don't know if you have specific numbers Anna to add to underpin this.
Maybe one piece of context. So it does vary by geography, but it varies by geography around out of stock. So what we're seeing actually is a very -- and we look at the sellout data and the consumer data for all of our big markets, actually incredibly regularly. And so what we're seeing is a very consistent trend back once we're back on shelf. And so the markets that have had a slightly bigger impact is where we've been off shelf a little bit longer, and that's more to do with manufacturing and supply. But I think the important point from here is we are back on shelf everywhere now. And so we should see that consistent improvement as consumers come into our brand month-on-month through the end of the year.
And just -- I'm sorry, I haven't answered the plastics point. Should I just do that one?
Yes, you can.
Yes. So, again, this is a place where our scale and strong supply chain network and local presence means that we are not worried about any disruption here. And just to frame it for you, plastics are about 6% of our COGS.
We have time to take one final question from Jeff Stent at BNP Paribas.
Just one question, particularly in sort of Asia. There appears to be a lot of work-from-home mandates. And obviously, we know from COVID that your business sort of benefits more when people are at home. So I'm just wondering, has there been any sort of impact of any sort of decent quantum that you can discern from those work-from-home mandates in Asia?
That's in Asia specifically. Yes.
Yes.
Yes. Look -- and I'll pass that to Anna because she has spent some time in Asia lately. So look, in -- that's in Asia, but in all emerging markets, but specifically in Asia, when you see first impact of actually people moving less, going less out of home, eating less out of home, eating in home and shopping closer to their homes, we obviously are really well positioned in all of those emerging markets because we are really well distributed. All of our brands are really close to where people live and move and then also eat. And obviously, that favors us.
We are much more in-home skewed than out-of-home skewed where we sell. And obviously, we love people at home cooking and enjoying our products. And so we're well positioned there. And this is where the power -- the local power and the local execution muscle of Nestlé comes to its best, where we really can deliver products close to where people are, close to where people shop and close to where people consume our products. That's where we are at our best, and that has shown through the performance of emerging markets in general, but also in Asia, Philippines, Indonesia, India, et cetera, during the first Q. So we are where people are and shop, and that's a competitive advantage that we have. But Anna has seen that firsthand in the Philippines during a recent trip.
Yes. So in terms of -- in the numbers, the numbers in Q1 have very little impact of these changes at this point. Yes, I was -- I've been in a couple of Asian countries in the last few weeks, including the Philippines, which is perhaps the most impacted at this point where there are fuel shortages, and we are absolutely seeing consumers stay at home more, shop closer to home and all of those things. And this is a moment where Nestlé is really good in that what you've seen us do is focus on our key SKUs, the ones that really matter, the ones that drive the vast majority and make sure that our key SKUs are being prioritized into that mom-and-pop route to market. So we're getting them as broadly and deeply as possible because where consumers are walking to the local shop and purchasing locally, we need to be there with our -- all of our highest running SKUs.
And we did that during COVID. And you saw the market share gains that we got in markets like the Philippines and other markets then. And we're deploying all of that learning, again, in adjusting our route to market, where we're already seeing that behavior change, but also preparing for these sorts of behavior changes in some of our other Asian markets. So very much front of mind and something that we've got good experience of and a super route to market to really make sure that we deliver for our consumer, and we are where we need -- we are where they need us to be at this time.
Thank you, Anna. Thanks, Jeff. I'm afraid that is all the time we have for questions. So I will hand over to Philipp to close.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you, David, and thank you all for your questions. Let me leave you with a few just closing remarks. As you have seen, we started the year well with broad-based growth, which was RIG-led. Our performance demonstrates that our RIG-led growth strategy is delivering in a complex and more and more uncertain environment. We have clear strategic priorities, which we are executing with focus, and this positions us well to deliver our plans for this year and beyond.
Thank you very much for your questions and your continued interest in Nestlé. Thank you very much.
Nestlé — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Organic growth: 3.5% in Q1; RIG contribution 1.2%; pricing +2.3% (+ FX headwinds ~5% for 2026).
- Performance by area: broad-based momentum; Coffee strongest; infant formula recall weighed on Nutrition; emerging markets solid.
- Guidance posture: full-year 2026 guidance unchanged: ~3%–4% organic sales growth; RIG acceleration; free cash flow > CHF 9B.
🎯 What Management Says
- RIG-led growth: growth platforms accelerated; sharper price-pack architecture; focus on fewer, stronger brands; marketing transformation; active disposals (Waters, VMS) and Blue Bottle Coffee sale; stronger brand partnerships (Dua Lipa for Nespresso).
- China & portfolio: shift to consumer-led model, new route-to-market, local manufacturing, inventories on track to normalize; e-commerce and Douyin pilots to drive growth; new variants launched.
- Execution cadence: KPIs rolled out; 30% of sales on growth platforms; affordability/premiumization ongoing; 2026 targets remain intact.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Guidance: organic sales growth around 3%–4%; RIG growth accelerating vs 2025; UTOP margin improving in H2; free cash flow > CHF 9B.
- Risks & timing: geopolitical/macro uncertainty persists; Middle East dynamics may affect costs and demand; pricing will vary by market/category; China improving through year.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Cost savings timeline: CHF 3B run-rate goal expected to be fully delivered by end-2027; steady progress in the meantime.
- China strategy: pivot to consumer-led model; inventories being rebalanced by Q2; leveraging HMO/innovations; Douyin/e-commerce tests to broaden pull.
- Pricing & channels: 2026 pricing to reflect consumer tolerance; e-commerce now >20% of business, with continued growth in discount and convenience channels; mix-shift discussed by region.
⚡ Bottom Line
Nestlé began 2026 with broad-based, RIG-led momentum, supported by growth-platform investments and China repositioning. The recall's headwind eased by April, and guidance remains intact: ~3–4% organic growth, improving margins in H2, and free cash flow above CHF 9 billion. Strategic disposals and brand partnerships add optionality for shareholders.
Nestlé — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to our media Q&A for full year results 2025. Thank you for joining us this morning. This is Christoph speaking. I'm joined by Philipp Navratil and Anna Manz this morning. I trust you have all had a chance to watch the investor Q&A this morning in the presentation. So we will move straight into your questions. But before we begin, please take a moment to review the disclaimer on your screen. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Now we're waiting for the first question to come in. First question is from [ Matthias ] [indiscernible].
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me?
Yes, perfectly.
Right. So thanks for your time. I have a question on Nespresso. As Nestle Health Science will disappear as a separate unit. Should that not also mean that Nespresso will actually disappear as a globally managed business because it's integrated into the new coffee pillar. And then the second question would be, as you now focus more on these 4 pillars [Audio Gap] of product categories, will there be new heads for these 4 pillars?
Yes. I'll take those. Matthias. Good to have you. Look, on Nespresso and should that be folded in, in some way to coffee. Look, no, it's not the case. Nespresso, if you look at it, Nespresso has a very distinct business model in that sense. So Nespresso is a direct-to-consumer business, since the very beginning, it's 40 years now this year Nespresso and since very beginning, it's a direct-to-consumer business. It is a business that is based on a system. And so there is many reasons to keep this business as a globally managed business.
Also, if you look at it how it is set up from the very beginning, all of the production is here in Switzerland, and then we drive a successful global -- true global brand that looks the same in each and every market from Switzerland. For the time being, we don't see any reason to integrate that. And then there is anyway a very good collaboration with coffee already.
If you look at it, what we have launched in the Nespresso factories to produce also the capsules that are branded on the Starbucks and on the Nescafe. And so there is obviously already an overlap that we collaborate from the Nespresso part with the broader coffee business to drive, again, a category growth, not only the brand Nespresso but the category, which is the portion coffee which we are, by far, the #1 company and Nespresso is the #1 brand in this space. So that's on Nespresso.
And then the 4 pillars. Looking now the 4 pillars, they don't have P&L responsibility. The 4 pillars, you can look at them as strategic business units as we have had up to now. So there will be a head of the coffee strategic business unit. There is 1 person in place the position that I have had in the past. There is a head of the strategic business really for pet food. There will be a head of the strategic business unit for the unified nutrition one.
And then on food and snacks, each 1 of those has a head of the strategic business units. And the head of all of that is David Rennie, who leads strategic business units and sales and marketing at Nestle. So it's not a case to build a new structure around this. It's about driving clarity and focus for driving growth in the company.
Thanks a lot. The next question is from Alexander Marrow, Reuters.
Just on the sale of the remaining ice cream businesses, can you give an idea of how much -- how valuable these assets are that you're looking to sell? And any more clarity on the sort of timing of a deal? And does this mean that you're not planning to exit the JV with Froneri or are you doubling down on that?
Yes, I can give you some of those numbers. Look, the ice cream business, we have said it's in 6 markets. It is shy of CHF 1 billion in terms of sales. And we'll get that -- it's a staggered approach, so because it's 6 markets in different geographies, we will get those integrated into Froneri during this year and the beginning of next year. This is what the plan is. And there is no plans to exit the JV with Froneri.
We are really happy with the performance that Froneri is driving and selling the remaining ice cream business of Nestle into Froneri is -- our strong belief that Froneri is the right owner for those businesses and will drive a better performance that we will do going forward. And we own half of Froneri and we are happy with the job they're doing so far.
Very good. The next question is from [indiscernible].
So my question is also regarding the new strategic pillars. Can we assume now that your assessment of the portfolio is now kind of finished? Or do you have further adjustments in mind given there are some -- still some weak businesses in your portfolio? Or should we assume that -- I mean, looking forward, you're constantly are you viewing all of the businesses as you did in the past couple of weeks?
Yes. Look, it's a good question. Look, it's never finished, is it. And what we are doing, I mean, we're not constantly looking at it, but periodically with Anna and the team and the Board we are looking obviously at the whole portfolio and look if we need to take action. What we are doing is quite substantial if you look at it, ice cream, we have mainstream VMS that will move forward soon. Waters, we have announced that this is now -- has now been launched. And all of these processes, obviously, it's quite a distraction for the company. So for the time being, there's nothing new to announce.
We will periodically review our portfolio, and we will shape it to make sure we have the right profile to deliver the growth. But the company is really what we are focusing on at the moment is truly on growth which we believe is the largest opportunity we have to drive shareholder value going forward. And each of those processes is a distraction. So we take them step by step. But for the time being, there's nothing new to announce. And we're periodically reviewing where we need to review, and we'll take the decisions quickly without a lot of -- with a data-based approach if we need to action something.
Perfect. We're moving to CNN, Hanna Ziady from CNN.
Can you hear me?
Yes. We can hear you.
I'm afraid I didn't -- I wasn't able to join the investor call this morning. So apologies if this will be a repetition for you. But 2 questions, if I may. One is on ice cream, just whether the sort of push by consumers towards healthier lifestyles and the rise of these GLP-1 drugs. Does that have anything to do with the sale of this? Or does the sort of sale process along predate that? Can you just comment on whether that's played any role in your thinking?
And then just 1 question, if I may, on the infant formula recalls. I realize that there's an ongoing process there at least in France, which -- with French health authorities investigating the deaths of 3 infants, who were believed to have consumed the recalled products. Can you just speak to -- is Nestle in contact with French health authorities? Is the company implicated potentially? I realize there's no link yet been made, but was it Nestle's products that are implicated or another company's products? And then just any new developments with regard to the formula recall and any ongoing investigations would be great.
Yes. Good. Thanks for the question, Hanna. Look, on ice cream, no, it has nothing to do with GLP-1. Interestingly enough, the ice cream category shows still mid-single-digit growth consistently, so that category has not yet been affected. And I believe while GLP-1 patients, they might eat less ice cream, they will change how they will eat it and how often. And Froneri is focused on that category and will be the best owner.
But GLP has not been thought for us. It's really we have 6 remaining businesses. We have sold all the rest to Froneri and those 6 have been or are a distraction for us if you look at the rest of our portfolio, and that was behind it. And we believe Froneri will be the right company to drive the right focus and the right marketing to drive this to growth. So not GLP-1 connected.
Look, on your question on infant formula. First of all, we obviously -- we're saddened by the news that 3 babies have died. There is no link today to any infant formula product nor to Nestle nor to anyone else's. There is an investigation ongoing and we are, as far as we need, we have not been contacted by the authorities, and we'll obviously collaborate and inform as we go. But today, there is no clear link and Nestle has not been implicated. And as I have said before, our main focus is quality, safety and health of -- quality of our products and the health and safety of our consumers, and that has always been at the center of what we do.
Also during that -- this recall as we were the first in the industry to recall our products and the industry followed suit almost a month later. So we were always guided by the principle of consumer safety at the center of everything we do.
The next question is from Thomas Oswald, AWP.
I have a follow-up to the infant formula recall. Are you taking any legal action against your supplier in China? And maybe did you -- have you made any provisions for potential legal cases, which you're may be facing?
Yes. Thank you, Thomas. Look, we will obviously reserve the right to take legal actions. We have not done that so far. Focus of the company is -- has been on the recall and is now on replenishing the stocks. That is where we're focused on, and then we will see what needs to be done on the legal side. And we have not done any provisions so far. So we'll work that through as we need, but focus is really on getting the market restocked. That is where we're focused on at the moment.
An additional question from Madeleine Speed, Financial Times.
I wanted to ask what the focusing on 4 businesses means in practice. What in concrete terms, will that change? And then the second question is on the L'Oreal stake. There's obviously a lot of questions from impatient investors about that. What's the rationale for staying in there?
Thanks, Madeleinel. I'll talk to 4 businesses, and I'll have Anna talk to L'Oreal quickly. Look, the focus on 4 businesses is truly that, so it's focus for the company. It's focusing on Coffee, PetCare, Nutrition and Food and Snacks. This is where we play. And also what it drives is clarity of how we play in the market. And how we play, and I don't know if you had the chance to listen to our investors presentation, there was one photograph in there where we showed a store in the Philippines, where all of those 4 categories or 4 businesses come together as one in one store, executed in one store.
And what's very clear is that when you look at how we execute at Nestle, the execution, the P&L ownership, the connection to consumers, customers is intrinsically located in the market. So it's owned by the market, close to the consumer. And anything that has to be global needs to be centrally driven from here, look at brand stewardship, look at long-term brand strategy, ways of working, end-to-end workflows, science-based and technology-based innovation pipelines, et cetera, are globally driven through our strategic business units that are now managed under those 4 pillars.
And that gives clarity and focus to the company as a whole. And it's obviously in service to drive our ambition to get the company to back to 4-plus organic growth, which should be real internal growth driven. And on L'Oreal, Anna, if you can give a bit of color to that one.
Yes, just quickly on that one. Our L'Oreal stake is a financial stake, and we are very dispassionate about it. That said, it's performed very well for us over the years and for our shareholders. From our perspective, it's not the biggest route to driving shareholder value right now, nor do we need to dispose of it to deleverage as we're deleveraging irrespective. So our big focus right now is on the biggest driver of shareholder value, which is growth. And everything we're doing is around accelerating growth.
I think we are -- we continue with Benjamin Weinmann, CH Media.
I also have a question regarding the infant nutrition recall. During your presentation, you mentioned that, obviously, there's also learnings despite the high standards of quality and safety. Can you, in simple terms, explain what are these learnings? What concrete measures are you taking to make sure this won't happen again?
And how also would you explain to nervous parents how could this happen in the first place? And second question regarding the brand stewardship of the new 4 pillars that you mentioned. You gave the example of Nescafe that it should look the same way, whether it's in Mexico or Switzerland. So would you say until today, there were too many liberties in the local markets being taken?
Yes. Two good questions. So look, I'll start with the infant formula recall. Look, the learnings, I think, are twofold, and it's very clear, and it's something we have consistently done in the past. But clearly, when we look at our own facilities and everything that we do internally, we have very high quality standards everywhere in every factory, each and every factory you go. Many times and in many, many places, those standards are higher than would be required by the law or by any local regulation.
And obviously, our clear actions is that those same quality standards apply everywhere that where we have suppliers or people producing for us. And that is true. In this particular instance, obviously, this supplier that supplied this ingredient to us, this was not the case. And it was also not the case because having Cerelyte in oil is a very rare occurrence, and that was -- that's why it was not on our radar and not on the industry's radar.
We found this issue because of our good manufacturing practices and quality standards that go beyond good manufacturing practices, and we're the first in the industry to find the issue. And it was also, as you have seen, it was not something that was regulated by anyone, has then been regulated by the European Union, and there is now a level that has been put in place from a regulatory point of view.
So it's something the learning there is these risks move, and we have to be one step ahead of identifying these risks. But obviously, I'm very clear, Cerelyte has nothing to do an infant formula, and this is not something that should happen. What I can assure you that Nestle is -- has always been and is laser-focused on the quality of its product and the safety and health of consumers, especially when it comes to infant formula.
And to parents out there, I apologize for the inconvenience that this recall has caused, and we are shipping safe and utterly controlled product since the recall has done. And as I said, we have recalled 1 month earlier than any other company out there. And our product that is out there is safe to consume. And we will keep it that way.
The Nescafe...
Then on Nescafe, look, was there too much liberty out there? Yes, look, there was because -- and I can talk to this quite well. When I took over the Nescafe strategic business unit, you would look at Nescafe across the world, and it was Nescafe written, but it was not looking the same. It didn't have the same look and feel. And what then a centrally driven unit can do is to have one design that has now been rolled out across the world. And the Nescafe logo and the Nescafe design looks more or less the same everywhere without obviously losing the local specificities.
So it might have freedom in a framework that local markets can still apply. But a global brand, in my view, has to show up as a global brand. The best expression is Nespresso that it looks the same across the world without any freedom in any framework, but then all other brands have some freedom in the framework to make it look local, but it should be recognizable as a Nescafe. And these are the things that make a lot of sense to have at the global level, while local markets have the freedom to execute the brand as they wish.
The next question goes to Daniel Hugli, Cash. Daniel, can you hear us? -- doesn't seem to work. We will come back to you afterwards, and we move to...
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Sorry. I have some technical problems here. I have a follow-up question on L'Oreal stake. I was not able to follow the investor presentation either. I just saw some headlines saying that the sale of L'Oreal stake doesn't have any priority. Can you give us a scenario where this sale of that stake has a priority?
We are very focused on delivering shareholder returns. And we start from a perspective of what is the fastest way that we improve returns for our shareholders. And so our #1 priority is doing exactly that. And therefore, our focus absolutely uniformly across the group is around accelerating RIG because that is what gets our products being eaten and drunk more globally. And accelerating RIG is what also drives margin, it drives cash flow and it drives returns. So what we said on the call was that was our #1 focus.
Next question is from Alain Detra, [indiscernible]. Otherwise, we will come back and go first with Fabienne Kinzelmann, Bloomberg. Fabienne? It seems to be a technical issue. Fabienne, can you hear us?
Yes. Do you hear me now?
Yes.
So regarding the Ice Cream business sale, and thanks for confirming the Bloomberg scoop. So did I get it right that the ownership structure of Froneri will not change and that you will keep it like it is today? Or is like will the ownership structure change? And then the other question I have, I looked at the corporate governance report and saw Philipp that your predecessor received no compensation upon termination other than his pro rata base salary until September 1. So what I would like to know, is there still any legal issue to solve with him? Are there -- is there anything still has to be -- which has to be settled?
Yes. Thanks, Fabienne. Look, on Ice Cream, so there's no change to ownership structure at the moment, nothing at all. So Froneri will be a JV as it is today. And we just transfer those 6 Ice Cream businesses. We sell that to Froneri. So nothing will change. On corporate governance question, look, I don't know about any legal action. It's not honestly something I spend my time on.
Then next question is from Nathalie Olof, AFP. Nathalie, can you hear us? If not, we will come back and go to [indiscernible].
To the Nestle Water business, you're looking for a partnership. What kind of partnership exactly -- is that also going to be a joint venture? Is it also an option to sell the whole business? And regarding the water brands, I think you still have around 30 water brands all over the world. Will you drop some of them, some of the local brands? Which one will you keep and bring into this partnership you are working on to establish?
Yes. Look, in terms of the partners, we said we initiated the process of a partnership. The partnership can take many forms, so it's not defined yet, but we're looking for a partnership in some way. In terms of brands, it comprises all of the brands. And it's then to the new partner or owner to determine the future of any brands. But it's -- the perimeter is all of the water brands, global and local.
Next question is from [ Claudiaim ].
I hope you can hear me. That Nestle has good manufacturing practices and above standard. I mean this is -- this has been written and it's all over the place, right, even higher safety standards. So I still wonder how come that a supplier did not have the same high standards as your own factories? And how can consumers trust that -- I mean, this is not happening elsewhere in another factory where you also have another standard. I mean, how can you assure consumers? And how do you explain that it didn't have the same standard?
Yes. Look, it's a good question. I understand the anxiety around it. Look, obviously, all of our suppliers have to have the same standards as we have. In this particular case, as I have explained before, it was a not known risk that this particular toxin could be found in oil. It was new to us. It was new to the industry. And hence, when we found out due to our superior quality and safety practices in our factories, we immediately then went to recall the product and we acted swiftly and we were first to find out and work closely with authorities, health care professionals and also industry associations to make sure this is known by the industry.
And still then, it took the industry -- the rest of the industry to recall almost a month after we did. And that is not an excuse. And obviously, we will take these learnings and make sure this doesn't happen again. But it's important to understand that also testing methods and these risks evolve, and we will be one step ahead to make sure we identify these risks everywhere and apply those learnings everywhere. But you can be assured that our quality and safety practices are intact within our factories and within all of our suppliers, we're sourcing products at the moment.
The next question is from Christian Kolbe, Blick.
Sorry, I've got some technical issues to get in the call. Maybe I ask a question for the second time. But the question -- the first one is Nestle says you are estimating about CHF 200 million impact of the baby formula issue. Other estimates say about CHF 500 million. Why are you so sure that the costs won't go up for Nestle more than the CHF 200 million? And the second one, Michael Bayer, the [indiscernible] says that he's not happy how the companies, not only Nestle, but all companies reacted on the issue. And my question is, why took it so long until it was clear that Switzerland was affected or not?
I'll leave the first part to Anna on the size of the recall, and I'll take the other one on the speed of the recall.
So on the first part, what we said on the call this morning was there is a direct impact of the recall. So that is the cost of the recall or the sales impacted by the recall itself and the sales or the lost sales due to out of stocks of 20 basis points for the year. So that was a very specific statement. We also said that the broader consumer impact was uncertain. We'll learn more as we go. That said, it's a sector that we know a lot about. We work very closely with doctors and also regulators. And so that's what has given us confidence to wrap all of that potential impact together in a guidance that we're giving today of around 3% to up to 4% organic growth.
Good. And then when it comes to the speed of the recall, look, I want to be very clear. We were very fast in recalling when we found out about the issue. And we not only found out about the issue, we also informed authorities and we informed health care professionals and industry associations to make sure this knowledge gets beyond Nestle because we knew that the supplier that we source this ingredient from was a supplier that would also source to other companies. But that's then -- that's another story.
What we have done over the holidays when we found out about the issue, we immediately worked together with authorities and recalled as fast as we could. So -- and that includes Switzerland. So there was no delay that I'm aware of that we have waited and seen when the issue was detected, we immediately recalled and we informed authorities to make sure these products are off shelf and consumers are informed and are kept safe.
So we moved fast. Others didn't. And maybe the critique is on that side. But Nestle was really fast, and I'm proud of this. And I'm proud of how our team reacted to recall swiftly and always with the consumers' health at the center of everything we do.
We can take 3 short questions. First, [ Klaus Bonomi, SRF ]. Klaus please go ahead. Klaus, we will get back to you. It looks like we have a technical issue. We are back to Matthias Benz and then Hanna Ziady and then go back to Klaus, if he's around, and then we need to close. Matthias, please go ahead.
I have another question on the German supplier of this ARA oil. Why did you choose him in the first place? Was that for cost reasons? And the second question would be, was it the only supplier you had? Or are there -- or were there different suppliers for that product?
Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, and they're linked because there was in the past only one supplier and which is a risk, obviously, in such an ingredient. And we chose the supplier that then generated the issue to have a second supplier in place. The supplier was checked and audited and was vetted and was cleared by quality assurance. And obviously, what happened then that they somehow in the process didn't have the process in control, but it was not about the cost reason at all. It was about making sure that we have -- that we can ensure supply of this important ingredient to produce infant formula.
And there are several suppliers. So now we have stopped sourcing from that concerned supplier, and we source from other suppliers. And all of the ARA oil that comes into our factory is now tested. So we test the oil before it goes into production and we test during production and we test when it comes -- when the product comes out of production. So we are 100% sure that all of our products are 100% safe to be consumed by babies out there.
I'am going to take a question from Hanna Ziady, CNN.
Just to go back to Ice Cream. You mentioned that it was a distraction. Can you say just a little bit more on why it is that you're actually selling this business? Because it sort of echoes a little bit maybe the reasons that Unilever gave several years ago, which kind of came down to, I think Ice Cream as they call a distinct characteristics. So it's season dependent, the supply chain can be more complex because it needs to be able to support frozen goods. Is that -- are your reasons some of the same? Is that -- can you just sort of spell out a little bit more why sell ice cream?
Yes, sure. Look, it is a distraction when I say it's a distraction, is something that we're not focused on because we only have 6 scattered business across the world. And this is an ice cream business, as you said yourself, it's seasonal. It's frozen supply chain. It is highly brand driven, and you need some scale to drive this. And Froneri has exactly that. And that was when -- in the first time when we set up the Froneri business, that was the idea. And we held on to those 6 businesses because we thought we could drive growth.
And looking at it now, we have these 6 businesses, which they don't have any global scale. We cannot drive this the same way that Froneri can. And that's why we think because all of that, Froneri has all of those capabilities, they know exactly how to drive seasonal business. They have scale, they have the knowledge and they have the brands, and they have shown this in all other markets where we have sold them our business that they can drive great growth and success.
And so the same should happen with those 6 businesses. So that's what I mean with the distraction. So we will not invest more in those businesses where we don't have the capabilities and the scale that we need to be successful and Froneri has. And so they are the right owner for those great 6 businesses because they're great 6 businesses, and they have a lot of potential.
Thank you. Before we conclude, let's try Klaus Bonanomi again, whether we can connect. Klaus? -- doesn't seem to be the case. There seems to be a technical problem. Sorry for that.
Thank you so much for your participation this morning. Our lines are open. If you have any further questions, call our media relations number. We're happy to assist, and we wish you a great day. Thank you so much.
Nestlé — 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Nestlé's Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm David Hancock, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Philipp Navratil, CEO; and Anna Manz, CFO. Before we get started, please take a moment to review the disclaimer on Slide 2.
So let me quickly take you through the agenda. We'll start with an overview of the key messages, review the 2025 financials and then move on to a strategic update. We will then open the lines for Q&A.
And with that, I'll hand over to Philipp.
Thank you, David. Good morning all, and thank you for joining us. And a special thanks to those of you joining from the CAGNY conference in Florida. I know, for you, it's very early.
I'll start with the key takeaways. First, our actions are working. Growth is improving. Market share trends have turned. Key now is to make the impact bigger and to move faster. Second, our strategy is clear: a focused portfolio, defined priorities, expanded growth investments, upgraded marketing. Third, execution is accelerating. Simpler structures, a performance-driven culture with clear KPIs, faster decisions, real accountability. And fourth, performance is improving. It's a difficult environment, no doubt, but we have so many of our own opportunities. This gives us confidence in delivering sustained improved performance. Overall, I am encouraged by our progress in 2025, but we are far from done. We will continue to push with urgency to deliver stronger performance and long-term value creation, and to do that consistently.
In 2025, our financial results were in line with our expectations. The performance shows progress across the business. The RIG trend is positive. Our UTOP margin was 16.1%, and we delivered a solid free cash flow. The Board is proposing a dividend increase to CHF 3.1. The actions we are taking are working, and we need now to go bigger and execute faster.
At the 9 months, I talked about 4 focus areas and also the importance of cash and capital allocation. Together, these are the 5 priorities that we will be focusing on relentlessly. It starts with a winning portfolio. This is the foundation for delivering superior RIG-led growth. This is our most important priority.
Next comes transformation and efficiency. Here, we have a lot of opportunity, which is why I already increased our ambition in October. Next and really important, strengthening cash generation and allocating our capital for long-term value creation. And underpinning all of this, a strong performance culture to make sure we deliver.
I'll expand on all of these in a few minutes. But first, I'll hand over to Anna to go through the 2025 performance.
Thanks, Philipp, and good morning. Here are the key messages to take away from our full year performance. We delivered solid top line growth, with positive RIG and improving momentum from the first half to the second. We continue to invest in growth, and we over delivered on our cost savings program. This meant our UTOP margin was in line with guidance despite increased headwinds. We also delivered free cash flow well above our guidance, and our net debt to EBITDA was broadly stable. And we'll get into more detail on the recent infant formula recall shortly.
However, as I go through the 2025 numbers, there's no impact on OG or RIG, but profit includes an impact on gross margin and UTOP margin of just under 10 basis points.
Turning to 2026. We expect underlying momentum to continue. We expect OG to be in the range of around 3%, up to 4%, with RIG accelerating versus 2025. UTOP margin is expected to improve, and free cash flow generation will be over CHF 9 billion.
Taking a step back, external factors have had a significant impact on our business in recent years, as you can see here. And whilst for some categories, the operating environment has normalized, in 2025, we've seen significant inflation in coffee and in cocoa, which we're currently managing through.
Now let's get into 2025. On full year sales, we delivered 3.5% organic growth, with RIG of 0.8% and pricing of 2.8%. Sales were negatively impacted by foreign exchange, and that's due to the strengthening of the Swiss franc. And as things stand today, we're set to have a further headwind in 2026, in the region of minus 6%, assuming today's spot rates.
Looking at organic growth by half. You can see we accelerated in the second half, driven by improved RIG. And this was also against a tougher comp than in the first half. This acceleration is broad-based across brands and geographies. China is the one exception as we work through the ongoing model change.
More than half of our growth acceleration was driven by our investments behind priority growth opportunities and the actions to improve performance in our key 18 underperforming businesses. On the right, you can see that growth has improved consistently as we've focused on these 2 areas.
Turning to market share. We've been making good progress. At a total group level, we've reduced our rate of value share loss by 60% over the last 12 months. Here, volume share has performed even better than value share, and we're now growing volume in line with the market. And this is driven by 2 key areas of our business. First, our billionaire brands are back to being share neutral for the first time in nearly a decade. And second, we've seen a large improvement across our 18 underperforming sales, with the majority either back into positive share territory or on an improved trajectory towards that. We're making good progress, but there is still much more to be done.
Turning next to profitability. I'll cover most of the margin slides quite quickly, starting with the usual bridge. You can see that the 110 basis points decline in UTOP margin comes mainly from gross margin and increased advertising and marketing spend. So let me get into those in a bit more detail.
Our gross margin last year was significantly impacted by input cost inflation in coffee and confectionery. The major impact was in the second half of the year, and that's due to the phasing of commodity cost increases flowing through the P&L given our forward cover. As we look to next year, we expect the full year to be up on 2025.
In terms of phasing, the underlying gross margin will begin to improve sequentially in the first half. But overall, the degree of progress will depend on the infant formula recall. And of course, FX will also play a role.
I showed already that we're improving momentum, both on top line growth and on market share. And this is in part because we're investing more behind our brands in a more targeted way. Advertising and marketing was up 50 basis points to 8.6% of sales for the full year. This was similar across the halves. The numbers here are net numbers after additional cost savings, and these incremental savings totaled 20 basis points for the full year, largely in the second half. For 2026, we'll continue to increase our A&P spend in absolute terms and as a percentage of sales. But we're not fixating on this single number. It's just one component of our growth investments.
The other big driver of margin is cost savings. In 2025, we delivered CHF 1.1 billion in cost savings from our Fuel for Growth program. This is more than CHF 350 million above our target. Roughly half of this outperformance came from accelerated delivery of operational efficiencies from our business transformation program. The other half came from procurement savings. And I should also point out that this Fuel for Growth savings comes on top of delivering more than CHF 1 billion of additional efficiencies from our other ongoing initiatives.
This slide shows UTOP profile by half year. The second half decline is a consequence of the gross margin dynamic, along with an increased impact from FX and tariffs.
This slide brings together all the moving parts. You can see here that we experienced over 300 basis points of headwinds, mainly from input cost inflation, but also tariffs, FX and some other items. This was more than we anticipated coming into the year. In addition, we invested 70 basis points more in A&P on a gross basis before savings. Despite this, the UTOP margin was down only 110 basis points. We were able to offset more than 2/3 of the cost increases through thoughtful pricing and cost savings as well as growth leverage.
During the year, we were often asked if our margin guidance would constrain our ability to invest. And as you can see, it hasn't. We invested both in price and in marketing, which helped to drive our improved growth and share momentum. What the margin guidance did do is bring the required focus on efficiency. And this has helped us accelerate our transformation towards a simpler, more agile organization. Looking forward to 2026, UTOP margin is expected to improve versus 2025.
Now let's turn to our segment performance. In Zone Americas, despite a challenging and uncertain environment, growth has improved throughout the year. In Q4, we saw particularly strong sales in U.S. PetCare as new capacity came online. And that's after supply constraints in wet cat had limited growth in the first 9 months. Growth was further supported by some customer buy-in ahead of a January price increase. In all, this benefited Zone organic growth in the quarter by a bit more than 50 basis points.
Turning to AOA. In China, we're continuing to change our model. This impacted growth for most of 2025 and will begin to ease as we get into the second half of 2026. In the remainder of AOA, growth has strengthened through the year with broad-based RIG improvement and market share gains. In the second half, OG was 8%, with a RIG of 5%. In Q4, there was some benefit from the timing of Ramadan, but even without this, our Q4 RIG in AOA ex China was the strongest since 2020.
Turning to Europe. The overall environment remains competitive, with retailers focused on providing value for consumers. Here, we saw price-led growth in coffee and confectionery, and PetCare grew nicely, with mid- to high single-digit RIG across most major markets, partly reflecting the fact that we're less capacity constrained than in the U.S. Across all zones, you see that the group margin dynamics are playing out relatively consistently.
Turning to our globally managed businesses. In Nestlé Health Science, our growth was led by RIG, thanks to a strong focus on execution and also portfolio optimization. These measures were a key driver of the UTOP margin improvement.
In Nespresso, we delivered strong growth, driven by pricing, but while maintaining positive RIG. Q4 was particularly impacted by retailer destocking in Europe and some short-term price elasticities. Margin was down significantly in the second half due to the lagged effect of the increased input costs and the impact of tariffs.
In Nestlé Waters and Premium Beverages, we achieved solid growth across the board. We continue to see strong demand from Maison Perrier and Sanpellegrino.
Turning to our category performance. Powdered and Liquid Beverages, which is mainly coffee, continues to grow strongly, led by price. In Q4, our RIG slowed as we saw the initial reaction to pricing taken at the end of Q3 in North America. But overall, elasticities have been slightly better than our expectations.
PetCare continues to normalize, with softness in dog balanced by resilience in cat, and we see growth gradually accelerating as capacity improves and pricing steadies. And as already mentioned, Q4 benefited from additional capacity in the U.S. and some preprice increase buy-in.
I've already touched on Nestlé Health Science, and Nutrition continues to be impacted by Gerber in the U.S.
Performance in prepared dishes and cooking aids largely reflects ongoing category softness. Within this, our U.S. Frozen business has made market share gains. And globally, Maggi is driving solid growth.
In Milk Products and Ice Cream, 2025 growth was positive, with coffee enhancers and ambient dairy driving RIG.
And finally, in Confectionery, growth remains strong. We're starting to lap our initial price increases and RIG trends are improving as our targeted actions to manage elasticities are seeing good returns.
Now let's look at a few of the items below UTOP. Restructuring costs were roughly flat in 2025 compared to last year. Impairment of assets increased, with write-downs in The Bountiful Company and Gerber in light of recent performance. Tax improved year-on-year on a reported basis as we lapped several one-offs, but the underlying tax rate in 2025 was 22.1%, in line with expectations and very similar to last year.
Next to underlying EPS. In constant currency, this decreased 1.8%, driven by our operating performance. At actual exchange rates, underlying EPS was down 7.3%, reflecting the strength of the Swiss franc.
Turning to working capital. In 2025, inventories were a key component in working capital, given the commodity price inflation in coffee and confectionery. This was the biggest driver of the profile across H1 and H2. Aside from that, we've seen good progress in our continued efforts to optimize our supply chain, which will benefit free cash flow.
CapEx has also been an important focus, and reduced significantly as a percentage of sales to 4.8%. In part, this is because we've come out of a period of elevated investment in new capacity, and it reflects greater discipline on capital investments, with a strong focus on maximizing returns from our existing asset base. CapEx will normalize within the range of 4% to 5% of sales going forward.
Return on invested capital decreased slightly, largely reflecting the reduction in operating profit.
On free cash flow, we delivered CHF 9.2 billion, ahead of expectations. EBITDA was lower, reflecting the margin reduction and the FX headwind.
On working capital, we had a negative impact due to the higher cost of inventory. But as I mentioned, we're making good progress on the fundamentals. And lastly, as I already touched on, CapEx reduced in 2025, resulting in a net benefit.
Net debt reduced by CHF 4.6 billion. Free cash flow was the major driver. In addition, we received an extraordinary distribution of CHF 2 billion from our Froneri joint venture. Net debt is the one area where the Swiss franc strength helped us, with FX movements reducing net debt. And all of this meant that despite the reduction in EBITDA, our leverage at year-end was 2.85x, that's slightly lower than the year before. We're working to reduce this further to the middle of our 2 to 3x range over the coming years.
Before we go to 2026 guidance, we want to cover the infant formula recall. Philipp?
Thank you, Anna. I know there's been some concern about the product recalls across the infant formula industry at the beginning of this year. At Nestlé, our top priorities are quality, product safety and compliance. And let me assure you, there is no compromise on that.
I'll quickly summarize what happened. At the beginning of December, we detected low levels of cereulide in some products in one of our factories in Europe. The detection was thanks to our strict quality protocols that go way beyond good manufacturing practices. As a precautionary measure, we recalled effective batches of products linked to this factory.
As you're likely aware by now, cereulide is produced by bacteria. I want to be clear about an important point. There was no bacteria in our products, and the contamination was not caused by bacteria on our production lines. In fact, our investigations identified that the root cause was a contaminated ingredient sourced from a global industry supplier. We promptly notified the supplier and informed the relevant industry associations, mindful that other infant formula producers would likely also be impacted. We then issued a broader precautionary recall in early January.
Weeks later, in late January and February, several other infant formula manufacturer chose or were required to recall some of the products after confirming that they had the same issue with the same contaminated ingredients sourced from the same supplier. In early February, the EU provided formal guidance. This specified approved testing methods and issued an action limit for cereulide in infant formula. This limit of 0.43 nanograms per gram of powder formula is now being used by all authorities across the EU.
At Nestlé, we have used a stricter limit for recalls of no more than 0.2 nanograms per gram, so well below the limit adopted across the EU.
With the recall complete, we're now fully focused on replenishing stocks. This is even more important given the scale of the more recent recalls across the industry. Our production is back at full capacity, using alternative ingredient suppliers, and with extensive testing before, during and after production. Supply has largely been restored, and we expect to be fully stocked across all markets in the coming weeks.
Throughout all of this, our approach has been simple: to act swiftly, responsibly and fully transparently to protect parents and babies. Our actions have been guided by this commitment at every step and in close alignment with authorities.
To wrap up, we will continue to be transparent and listen to parent, health care professional and other stakeholders. Ensuring food safety and the well-being of infants remains our highest priority, and we work to maintain parents' and caregivers' trust. We know trust needs to be built and sometimes rebuilt, and we're committed to doing just that.
I will now hand back to Anna to talk more about the impact of the recall on our financials.
Thanks. And as Philipp described, the recall occurred substantially in 2026, but it concerned products sold in 2025. And as such, in the 2025 results, we've included the estimated impact of customer returns and the write-off of inventory. The impact on UTOP was CHF 75 million or close to 10 basis points of UTOP margin. No impact on OG and RIG was recognized in 2025 due to the difficulty in estimating the effective volume of returns. This will be recognized in 2026.
In Q1, we'll see a one-off sales impact from customer returns and stock shortages. And we estimate that this will be approximately CHF 200 million, so an impact of around 90 basis points for the quarter and 20 basis points on a full year basis. In addition to these direct impacts, there could be some indirect consumer impact. And this is hard to assess, particularly as other infant formula manufacturers have recently begun substantial recalls.
Now turning to the overall guidance. We're continuing to drive change in the context of what is clearly a particularly uncertain period. The guidance we're providing today is based on current information as macroeconomic and consumer uncertainty remains. That said, our self-help measures and strengthening execution gives us confidence.
We expect organic sales growth to be in the range of around 3%, up to 4%, with accelerating RIG compared to 2025, driven by our focused growth plans. This range includes the expected impact of sales returns and stock shortages of approximately 20 basis points from the infant formula recall. Additional impact is uncertain and could drive OG towards the lower end of the range.
On UTOP margin, we expect to improve versus 2025, with strengthening in the second half. Last, we expect to deliver above CHF 9 billion of free cash flow. And a full summary of our modeling guidance is provided in the appendix.
So to summarize, we delivered a solid performance in line with our guidance despite increased headwinds. We accelerated growth with momentum building through the year, and we continue to invest meaningfully behind our brands. All of this sets us up well for 2026.
And with that, let me hand back to Philipp.
Thank you, Anna. 2026 is a very important year for Nestlé. We have had some challenging events in recent times. But I've seen the company come together around our values in a way that makes me both proud and inspired. We do the right thing: focus on consumers, prioritize quality, safety and compliance, show leadership in the industry and act for the long-term success and growth of the company. Building on those foundations with an updated focused strategy and new energy, I'm excited about the opportunities ahead.
I want to focus now on our 5 strategic priorities. It starts with a winning portfolio. This is the foundation for sustainable growth. It is about clarity on where we want to play, then focusing on our winning positions and brands. A winning portfolio needs winning businesses. I have told you that I look at this through 4 lenses: Does the category have an attractive structural growth? Do we deliver strong returns and cash flow? Are we positioned to win? And four, are we actually winning, meaning gaining market share?
In addition, our portfolio needs the businesses to be a winning combination, bringing competitive advantages. This means commercial synergies in consumer insights, in route to market and customer relationships, in negotiating with suppliers. It also means shared capabilities, leading science and technology, manufacturing know-how and the ability to attract the best talent. And a portfolio is not static. It needs to be actively managed. We will keep an open-minded view, assessing regularly based on data and not emotion.
We have a fantastic portfolio with 4 focused businesses: Coffee, PetCare, Nutrition and Food & Snacks. Coffee, PetCare and Nutrition are truly global categories. In Coffee, we are the clear #1, leader across all the main products with the top 3 brands in the category. In PetCare, we are the #1 in cat, #2 in dog, with strong brands and everything we need to be #1 in overall position. In Nutrition, we have all the elements, leading positions and great brands, but we do have an opportunity to increase our focus and drive real synergies and scale by bringing Nutrition and Nestlé Health Science together. Doing this will create a single integrated global powerhouse like we have in Coffee and PetCare. I will talk about that more in a moment.
Finally, Food & Snacks. Going forward, we will look at these categories together. As for consumers, the boundaries are blurring. These categories are also less global. We have strong regional positions and leading brands, but we still have some work to do to focus within this business and maximize our strength.
Last, not shown here is Waters. As you know, we are working towards a partnership for that business. The formal process of engaging with potential partners kicked off earlier in Q1, and we expect Waters to be deconsolidated for 2027.
Turning to Nutrition and Nestlé Health Science, two really strong businesses in an attractive category, lots of opportunities. For example, we are very strong in specialized infant nutrition, with differentiated science and room to grow further. In medical nutrition and premium VMS, we have opportunities to expand geographically. And we are already pioneering new demand spaces such as women's health, health longevity and weight management.
As we developed our strategy for capturing these opportunities, it became clear that having a single business would accelerate our position and performance. So we have decided to integrate these businesses and remove the structure of globally managed business. This will drive focus and simplification. Operational ownership, execution and P&L accountability will move fully to markets. Multiyear strategy, innovation and brand management will be led centrally as it is for other global categories. This combination magnifies our advantages and brings top line and bottom line benefits. We'll strengthen our route to market and execution muscle, better leverage shared expertise and our leading R&D competence and remove duplication.
We also have overlap in operational capabilities and will unlock efficiencies to allow us to invest for growth. We continue with the carve-out of mainstream VMS The noncore brands have been identified, and we're working on the operational separation plan, and the formal sale process will commence shortly.
This is a quick look at the shape and potential of our combined Nutrition business, a strong brand portfolio, covering prevention and treatment across all life stages. You can see also the distinct geographic profiles across the different categories, which is a strength and an opportunity.
In Food & Snacks, we're also acting to strengthen our portfolio position. This is a really interesting space where the consumer habits are changing. Eating is becoming more fragmented, meals more portable and consumption occasions much more varied. Boundaries are blurring for consumers. The fastest growth value pools now sit between traditional meals and snacks. The breadth of Nestlé's offerings across Food & Snacks makes us perfectly placed for this convergence. That is why we will now be looking at Food & Snacks holistically.
Alongside global brands, Food & Snacks also has a stronger local dimension than, for example, Coffee or PetCare. We have leading global brands like Maggi, KitKat, Milo and Nestlé Confectionery. This account for 1/3 of sales, and we will prioritize these. We also have unrivaled local hero brands with real scale. Think about Totole or Garoto or Thomy. These are not global billionaire brands, but they are very important in their local markets, and we will support them in a targeted way. And we need to focus our resources to ensure we have the sufficiency to really drive growth. This means that outside the strategic brands, we will not support the remaining small brands with paid media.
There are times when we decide that focusing means executing businesses. This is the case with our remaining ice cream business. It's strong but small, and it's a distraction for us. This business is a great fit for Froneri, and we have agreed to sell the business in a phased way.
I want to also take a moment here to talk about the business we don't have plans to exit, and that is U.S. Frozen Foods. Frozen foods does not get a clear tick on every box on the 4 lenses I mentioned earlier. The key open question is the first, is this a growth category? Currently, it is not. The space where we play frozen snacks, meals and pizza was flat in 2025, with growth in snacks, with small declines in meals and pizza. There are areas with good growth, such as high protein and global flavors. So we do see the potential for growth, but there are also growth headwinds.
On the other 3 lenses, the answers are positive. On returns, Frozen delivers strong profitability and excellent cash flow. On position, we have leading brands, a scale business and #1 or #2 market positions. And on performance, the changes we are making are driving a turnaround. Frozen also brings wider benefits to our business, high consumer and customer relevance and increased strength in our route to market. Overall, the category has some challenges and questions, which we need to keep an open mind. But the business is not a significant growth drag for the group. It strengthens our overall competitive position in the U.S. and generates strong cash flow. We are innovating and strengthening our business, making it more valuable whatever the future may hold.
My priority right now is focusing Nestlé on the things that drive the most shareholder value over the next 12 to 24 months. And those are actions to accelerate growth, and I will come to talk about them now.
How to deliver our medium-term goal of 4% plus organic growth led by RIG? Our portfolio is well positioned for the 4 key customer trends within the industry. I won't go through each of them, but I will talk on one only, affordable and premium. Today, demand is becoming more polarized, with families seeking value while others trade up for superior quality. This is a must-win trend for us, and our broad portfolio positions us to meet those divergent needs and capture the underlying growth.
We have taken tactical actions to remain price competitive and we'll continue to do so where necessary. One way to address affordability in developed markets is through price and pack architecture, adapting pack sizes and price points to meet consumer needs without compromising value. In the U.S., Hot Pockets is a great example of this approach. By introducing new pack sizes at key price points, we made the product more accessible to families and regained momentum in frozen snacking. We have the brands, the technology and the innovation engine to fully leverage these structural shifts and convert them into sustained profitable RIG-led growth.
We are confident in the growth outlook and the advantaged category exposure of our portfolio. The industry has gone through exceptional dynamics over the past 4 to 5 years, impacting volume growth and RIG, as Anna outlined earlier. But over the coming years, we see a return to more balanced growth, with less extreme inflation. Coffee and PetCare category value growth is expected to be 3% to 4% over the coming years, with overall Nutrition a bit higher and Food & Snacks a bit lower. These are averages with different areas in each category growing above or below this average. That's important.
We have shown in the last year that when we focus and invest behind the areas with more growth potential, we can drive an acceleration in organic growth. Key for us is to accelerate group growth is to expand the scope of these priority growth areas. Last year, we began this journey by identifying priority growth opportunities and concentrating resources behind them. This was the right direction. But the scope was too small, representing only 10% of our sales.
We have expanded the scope to include a broader set of opportunities, accounting now for 30% of sales. The criteria is simple: clear structural drivers, real competitive advantages for Nestlé, strong innovation pipelines and focused action and investment plans. We expect these growth platforms to deliver high single-digit organic growth in the coming years.
In 2026, this will be supported by CHF 600 million in additional investment behind these platforms. And of course, we continue to drive delivery in the core with more investment behind fewer brands, further actions on underperformers and positioning the trends discussed earlier. Taken together, this gives us confidence in achieving above 4% OG and 2% RIG over the medium term.
I want to give a flavor of some of the growth platforms we will prioritize. In the interest of time, I will just talk to cold coffee, but I'm very happy to expand on any of these in Q&A. One reason we are so excited about cold coffee as a platform is the clear structural drivers it represents. Cold coffee serves new need states, refreshment, functionality and indulgence. It taps into a clear need for convenience. And it brings new consumers to coffee, driving true category expansion. It plays strongly with millennials and Gen Z, often led by influencers, capturing the suitability of cold coffee for experimentation.
Nestlé is uniquely placed to capture this opportunity. Our global leadership position and deep coffee expertise give us an advantage in innovating and scaling in this space. You have all heard about Nescafé Espresso Concentrate. And cold coffee is so much more than that. We are bringing cold coffee to consumers across our top 3 brands in all formats, portioned, soluble, ready-to-drink and concentrates. We have launched new products across multiple markets through the last year and have a strong multiyear pipeline, including concepts like the fruit-based Starbucks Refreshers, which expand the category even further.
In 2025, OG was very strong double digit. This was supported by A&P level, more than double the group average, clearly demonstrating how we are committed to investing behind these opportunities. Strengthening our marketing capabilities is a key enabler of our RIG-led growth. It will help drive the growth platforms and the core of the business. We call this transformation marketing of the future. The environment is shifting fast, consumers decide quicker, customers are raising expectations. The complexity of capturing consumers is rising. Brand building is more critical than ever. We have a great starting point, over 30 billionaire brands, many leading local jewels, very high brand equity, and we have a clear headroom to strengthen differentiation and competitiveness.
To do this, we need to build systematic excellence at scale. Marketing of the future focuses on 3 priorities: first, reestablishing world-class brand building, supported by a company-wide upskilling program with consumer insight and analytics at the center of what we do. Second, fewer bigger priorities, moving from more than 400 brands with media support in early 2024 to 150 in 2026. And third, a transformed marketing operating model, scaling the use of shared services, strengthening our content studio and using technology to improve quality, consistency and speed. These changes will connect deeper consumer insights, innovation and marketing. They will also drive a clear financial impact, unlocking resources to be reinvested behind our growth platforms.
I'll pass over to Anna to take you through our third priority, which is transformation and efficiency.
Thanks, Philipp. As part of our transformation and efficiency agenda, we're fundamentally changing how work gets done across Nestlé. We're simplifying our operating model and clarifying accountabilities. Let me give you an example. Our business runs on 9 end-to-end processes such as procure to pay, the process of procuring goods through to paying suppliers, and hire to retire, which is the process of managing employees through their life cycle with Nestlé. Each process is made up of a number of activities, underpinned by a largely consistent IT infrastructure and data infrastructure. Today, we still operate many local versions of the same activities and shared services are used unevenly across geographies.
Take the consumer claims process in Europe. For 9 markets, it's done in shared services, and for 5 others, it's largely done in market. All 14 countries operate a different process today, making automation costly. And it's this type of complexity we need to fix as it slows us down. We have opportunities in 2 areas. First, we're expanding the scope of today's shared services by a factor of around 3. Second, once activities are in shared service, we must standardize and automate, and the impact is significant.
In marketing, we did exactly this with content adoption, delivering up to a 75% cost reduction and over 70% increase in speed of delivery. And these levels of efficiency are not unusual and is the power of eliminating fragmentation and automating. With a largely standard group-wide IT backbone and data structure, we're well positioned to deliver a simpler, more agile, more productive operating model.
Now let me give you an updated view of the efficiencies coming through our Fuel for Growth program. In 2025, we delivered a strong start with a clear step-up in the second half. This increased pace of delivery means we now expect cost savings to reach CHF 2 billion in 2026, more than targeted when we first launched the program. An important part of this comes from our operational transformation program. By the end of 2027, we target CHF 1 billion of annual savings from white collar operational efficiencies, and we're already making good progress, with CHF 200 million of savings achieved in 2025 and ahead of plan. This transformation is all about increasing efficiency and reducing complexity to accelerate our business and deliver sustainable, profitable growth.
Turning to cash generation. Our performance is improving as we embed discipline backed by the right data. To bring this to life, better data has helped us reset finished goods levels and avoid unnecessary buffers. We're now applying the same discipline to raw and packaging materials and to areas that historically had little scrutiny, like spare parts and semi-finished inventories, where data is exposed large inconsistencies factory to factory. Better governance means clearer escalations on receivables and payables and tighter oversight of all inventory classes, and that reduces variability and improves control. With more and more of our activities in shared service, we can scale these benefits faster. And finally, CapEx discipline has tightened. We've increased the rigor and review of business cases and are directing investment where it creates returns. And here, I want to be clear that in CapEx decisions, safety and quality are nonnegotiable.
And now to our capital allocation. We've consistently said that our first priority is investing to drive RIG-led organic growth, although we see room for selective bolt-on acquisitions where they accelerate growth, particularly supporting our growth platforms. We remain committed to the dividend. And clearly, to grow the dividend and improve cover, we need to grow our free cash flow in Swiss francs faster than the dividend on an ongoing basis.
Returning surplus cash to shareholders through share buybacks remains a potential use of excess cash when available. And that brings me to leverage. No change to our current policy. We're sitting at the upper end of our 2 to 3x net debt-to-EBITDA range. And I've noted before, we prefer to move back towards the middle.
And with that, I'll hand back to Philipp.
Thank you, Anna. And finally, let's look at how we are embedding a performance culture, our fifth strategic priority. Nestlé's culture has a lot of positives. We do the right thing. We don't cut corners. We treat our employees well and deliver shared value. And at the same time, we need to push a culture of high performance, a culture where winning is recognized and rewarded, where teams act as accountable business owners and with no complacency around underperformance. This is enabled by a clear organizational structure, providing empowerment and accountability. In the areas where there is ambiguity, we are correcting this. And to ensure incentive support delivery of the priorities, we have modified annual bonus metrics and our performance and development system. I will quickly expand on these last 2 points.
Earlier, I explained that we are focusing our portfolio on 4 businesses: Coffee, PetCare, Nutrition and Food & Snacking. This gives us clarity on where we play. But despite what you might have read, we're not embarking on a big reorganization to manage the group by global categories. One of our great strengths is the power of what we call Nestlé in the market. This is a true differentiator. This photo of a store in the Philippines gives a flavor of that. Side by side, you see Milo, Bear Brand, Nescafé, Nestea, Maggi, each with multiple SKUs stocked and displayed. Together, that's Coffee, Nutrition, Food & Snacking. And I'm sure that somewhere out of shot, Purina pet food is present.
It's Nestlé's local DNA that gives this unrivaled strength of route to market and share of customer shelf and consumer wallet. We need to preserve this local strength while we also bring clarity to our global portfolio. This means clarifying responsibilities, removing duplication, making sure decisions are taken at the right level, with full ownership for outcomes.
At the above-market level, I wanted to focus only on what benefits from global coordination and scale, like multiyear category strategy, brand stewardship, global innovation, functional expertise. Everything else sits firmly with the markets. They own execution, consumer and customer relationships, scaling innovation, and they own the operational P&L without ambiguity. This fully empowers market leaders and market teams. The decision to create an integrated Nutrition business reflects this approach. It will be run locally under the geographic zones, with the globally managed business of Nestlé Health Science removed.
Another example is the reorganization in Zone Europe, back to a market-led model with market empowerment at its core. This all makes us simpler, sharper Nestlé, global scale where it creates value, and local agility where it drives growth, margin and market share. This clarity of accountability and ownership is key to building a true performance culture.
Another part of strengthening performance is incentives. We have updated our incentive framework to ensure it drives the right behaviors and accelerates delivery. We have introduced a RIG gatekeeper into the bonus. This is a minimum level of RIG to be achieved. This ensures that we are delivering high-quality, sustainable growth, fully aligned with how we plan to reach our 2026 organic growth and market share targets.
Bonus for functional leaders is now linked to group performance, bringing the entire Executive Board and their teams behind one set of business KPIs. This drives more cohesive execution across the company. Our new company-wide performance system provides sharper expectations and clear priorities for every employee. Together, these changes reinforce a performance-driven culture, accelerate delivery of our goals and build the discipline we need for sustainable value creation.
Finally, as part of performance culture, I would like to talk for a moment about our Board of Directors and some important developments there.as the Board of Directors and the relationship with the Executive Board plays a key role in delivering performance.
As you know, very shortly, after I became CEO of Nestlé last year, Pablo Isla, took over as the Chair of the Board. It's now almost 6 months that we've been working together, and I'm really happy about the relationship that we have established personally and more broadly between Board and the executive team. The level of engagement, challenge and support is something we, as a management team, value very much.
At the next AGM, 2 outstanding new directors will be proposed, Fama Francisco and Thomas Jordan, bringing world-class consumer goods and macro financial expertise. Our governance framework is stronger than ever, with an independent Chair and reinforced leadership structures that ensure accountability and alignment with shareholder interests. The committee structure is being revised, including a strengthened Audit and Finance Committee and an expanded Science, Technology and Sustainability Committee to better leverage directors' expertise. These enhancements ensure more informed debate, strong recommendations, and the Board fully committed to acting in the best interests of Nestlé and its shareholders.
We covered a lot of ground. So I'll come back to a reminder of the key messages. Our actions are starting to pay off, and the growth trends are improving. We have a clear strategy with 5 priorities. The portfolio focus is defined, and we are putting investment in the parts of the business that matter most. Execution is accelerating. The organization is becoming leaner and more performance-driven, which is helping translate strategy into real results. And we are on track for sustained progress. The building blocks are in place for continued improvement in 2026 and beyond.
And with that, I'll hand over to David to begin the Q&A session.
Thank you, Philipp. So we'll now move to our Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] And we will take the first question now from Olivier Nicolai at Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
Two questions, please. So you're seeing improvement in pet food in the U.S. that was driven by cats. What gives you confidence that this bounce in cat food demand is sustainable beyond the prebuying effect that you mentioned? And more generally, what do you see in terms of adoption of cats and dogs in the U.S. but also your key regions?
And then secondly, on the debt reduction. So first, on the free cash flow, how much benefit can we expect this year from the lower working capital linked to the lower cocoa and coffee prices? And then in terms of potential disposals beyond the ice cream businesses that you mentioned, could you also monetize some of the joint ventures that you have? And which one do you consider core or not?
Yes. Thank you, Olivier. Look, I'll give the first part over to Anna, and I'll come back on the ice cream disposal question that you added.
Sure. So the question was pet food in the U.S. So in the quarter, there was -- in the context of total pet food, RIG overall for Q4 was about 5.4%. The impact of the more one-off element, which is associated with a preprice -- sorry, preprice increase buy-in and also the pipeline fill was about 1 percentage point for total pet food RIG. So overall, pet food had a really good Q4 with strong RIG at over 4%. And that's coming from momentum both in the U.S. and also in Europe as well.
So if I maybe just spend a moment on the U.S., where we're seeing strength is in cat food and specifically wet cat food. As you know, we've been capacity constrained for 9 months of the year. We're starting to get the capacity online, and we're delivering on that demand. We'll be able to accelerate further as we move into 2026 as we get even more capacity online. But also -- and this was pleasing, we saw an improvement in dry dog as well in the quarter in the U.S.
If I look across to Europe, which is a much more cat skewed market for us, as you say, we're seeing really good momentum. And again, particularly in that wet cat space. So really pleased with the performance there. So overall, good to see pet starting to be a bit more where it should be.
Debt reduction. So yes, we've made good progress this year. Our guidance for free cash flow for 2026 is more than CHF 9 billion. And that comes from our focus on continuing to reduce working capital, irrespective of commodity costs. And yes, commodity costs do help us as we work our way through it as well. But of course, there's also sort of movements in FX and other things that will move us as we go. Confident of more than CHF 9 billion. And as you see, with the work that we've laid out that we're doing across working capital, we will look not to stop at more than CHF 9 billion. We look to continue to improve because there's quite a lot of opportunity here. JV cleanup.
Yes. I'll do the JV cleanup. Look, and to the question of ice cream, look, ice cream is not the only business we're actioning on. So that was announced as the new one, but we also have seen some progress on Waters, which is now in process. And also, you can expect the mainstream VMS business that we have announced earlier that will be processed in the next couple of weeks or shortly.
Also, with that, we've always said, we are ongoing, and we regularly look at our portfolio. So we have done 10 smaller transactions during last year, including the Herta disposal. And as I have said, we look at our portfolio regularly through those 4 lenses that I have explained. We do this. This is ongoing. But what is very clear for the organization as well, that every time we dispose of those operating units, it's a distraction for the company, and we really need the company fully focused and undistracted from driving what drives most shareholder value, which is RIG-led growth. So that's what we are focused on, but we're reviewing our portfolio regularly going forward.
We'll take the next 2 questions from Guillaume Delmas at UBS.
First question is on your supply chain. I mean I appreciate the infant milk formula recall is not Nestlé-specific, but more of an industry-wide issue. But nevertheless, I mean this comes after a relatively long list of challenges like Buitoni, Perrier, VMS in the U.S. So my question on this is, how confident are you that you can ensure you're not going to get any additional supply chain issues going forward, while at the same time, you are driving quite an ambitious program of productivity gains and of CapEx optimization? So any color on that would be interesting.
And then my second question is on your pricing outlook for '26. We've heard a lot from your U.S. peers recently about the focus on affordability. In Europe, it seems not unusual, but negotiations with retailers are particularly challenging this year. So curious to hear how you see your price growth playing out in '26? And I guess related to that, if you're seeing a greater level of price elasticity at the moment across your portfolio? I think you mentioned a bit more price elasticity in Nespresso in Q4.
Thanks, Guillaume. Look, I'll start with your infant formula question, give a few color then on the pricing, and I'll pass it back to Anna for some color on the numbers.
Look, on your question on infant formula, look, I'm very confident we -- at Nestlé, we have the highest standards when it comes to safety and security in terms of quality for our products. And I have said that, and I'm not getting tired to repeat it that the quality of our products and the safety of our consumers come first, and we do not cut corners here. When we talk about CapEx reduction or head count reduction, it's definitely not in the spaces of quality or safety of our consumers and safety of our own people for that means. And so that's definitely not to be read in that context.
And what we have done, we have -- due to our quality capabilities and standards that we have in our factories that are in many, many ways, more stringent and go further than regulations or even the law requires. We have found that issue that the cereulide issue on infant formula, we're the first company that found the issue, and we worked really closely with authorities, health care professionals and industry associations to make sure always with this idea and value in mind that consumers must be kept safe. And obviously, a recall is not a great thing to have, but you have to do that and you have to work through it flawlessly, and the team has done that exactly that. And I'm proud of how we reacted to it.
Obviously, there's learnings to be had, and we will apply that across all of our processes. But I'm confident we have safety and quality really on top of our agenda, and we comply with that everywhere.
Look, in terms of pricing outlook, and I'll just give a few comments first U.S. and then Europe. On pricing, and we have seen a few of our peers talking about pricing softness, consumer softness in the U.S. We have not seen this so far where we are. We're obviously monitoring this very closely. There is clearly a consumer that prefers quality and trades up. And we have -- we see that especially -- for example, Nespresso is a good example. We still have good growth, RIG-led growth in the U.S.
But there is obviously the consumer and more and more of those consumers that have a stretched budget and they're looking for value more and more. And you see that also with discounter channels, convenience channels growing, smaller portions growing. And what we do there is 2 things or 3 things. We have -- first of all, we have a really strong portfolio that is wide enough to cover the premium space and the lower tier space.
Look at our coffee portfolio, for example, we have a Nespresso, Starbucks and Nescafe that can really cater to all price tiers. We're taking back pricing where we went maybe too far with pricing. So we adjust that. We have done that in 2025 as well. And at the same time, we have great capabilities in terms of price and pack architecture to make sure price points are accessible and affordable for those who want to access our products, our brands at accessible price points. And at the same time, I believe it's important we keep investing in our brands. We keep investing in innovation because through all of that, consumers still buy brands, and they love our brands, and we have to make them loved by our consumers.
And in Europe, also, I mean, these retailers negotiations, it's the time of the year where these happen. The retailers as us our focused to give value to consumers, and we're working through those negotiations as we speak. We always look at this in the long term. And the best way to go into these negotiations is having great innovation that not only are good for market share for our products, but are good for driving category growth for our retailers. And that's what we focus one.
But maybe, Anna, you have some numeric color on this?
So firstly, your question on price elasticity. Have we seen any difference? No. The comment on Nespresso is more that when you initially take price, you see a very short-term reaction, but there's no underlying difference in elasticity that we're seeing today on coffee than we were seeing through 2025. And as I said, coffee has continued to positively surprise us in terms of its lack of elasticity.
I think the other point to note with all of this is we didn't -- and you see it in the margin bridge, we didn't act to price to cover the commodity cost increases we saw this year. We acted to price at the level that the consumer could take. And that is something that we monitor consistently. But as we look forward to price for 2026, that's also in our mind that there is some carryover price, but we will look to continue to take price in those categories and country combinations where we feel the consumer has the capacity to take it, and there are a number of those.
A quick point on the U.S. because I realize that we are different than some of our peers, and we've been -- we're not seeing maybe the pressures that they're talking about, although we monitor it. And that might be because nearly 70% of our portfolio, over 60% of our portfolio is Coffee and PetCare. And we've talked about the resilience of Coffee. And you see that even in our affordable brand, Nescafe, that's growing double digit. And PetCare where our constraint hasn't been pricing so much as the capacity to deliver on wet cat demand. And yes, I think that was my build on that.
The next question comes from Warren Ackerman at Barclays.
Philipp and Anna, it's Warren here. It's very early here in Florida at the CAGNY Conference. So excuse me if I sound a little bit sleepy, but I've got 2 questions for you and it's a lot to digest. The first one is really on the guidance. The 3% to 4% for this year, can you maybe elaborate what's embedded in terms of category growth? And specifically, what are you building in for the underperformers and the innovation impact on the expanded growth platforms in '26?
And I guess I'm just wondering whether you considered giving yourself more flex on the guidance or a wider range or a lower number just given the uncertainty out there? And then I know you don't like giving quarterly guidance. But given there are so many moving parts, could you at least confirm, Anna, that Q1 RIG will still be positive despite the 110 bps impact on infant and pet? So a little bit around the guidance.
And the second one is on the organization. I'm still a bit unclear how this is going to work in practice. So you've got 4 categories. How is that going to be an unlock? Are you moving to a matrix structure? And will the reporting change? I'm just wondering whether you consider going to 4 end-to-end categories? And how do you optimize the local versus global? So maybe if you can just clarify a little bit more what this actual 4-pillar change means in terms of the kind of day-to-day and why you think it's an unlock?
Yes. Thanks, Warren. And I'll let Anna start. First of all, thanks for being up so early. And I'll let Anna start with the guidance, and I'll come back on the question on the structure and the 4 pillars.
I am sorry, and I do hope you have coffee. So our guidance of around 3% up to 4% is underpinned by 2 factors: one, the diversification that we have in our portfolio; and secondly, the actions that we are taking, the self-help measures that you see us taking that are accelerating growth. And so maybe just to kind of build on those 2 thoughts a little bit. So in terms of diversification, I think we have really good category diversification. I mean, we were just talking just now around the U.S. where there is a lot of category concern out there, but more than 60%, nearly 70% of our business is in Coffee and PetCare. And those are 2 categories which have good growth fundamentals, I think that gives us confidence. But also the geographic piece as well.
We have great geographic diversification. And if you look at the emerging world ex China in H2, our organic growth was 9% with RIG of 3. Now that's 36% of our business with really good structural geographic momentum. So again, that's another reason why I'm confident.
In terms of the self-help actions that we're taking, moving the areas that we're investing in from 10% of sales to 30% of sales and putting significant focused investment behind it also will help us really accelerate those high single-digit growth areas. So what's encompassed in our guidance is our view of how the infant formula issues could play out and what we know of the world. But that's why we feel confident about it.
And in terms of Q1, and you're right, I don't guide on RIG quarter-by-quarter. But you're also right that the 2 things that you should be adjusting for as you think about Q1, which will be a slower quarter because of them, is the infant formula impact, which will all be RIG. And that's 90 basis points approximately of the specific one-off and out-of-stock impact. And then the other one is the sort of more one-off element of the PetCare, which we've called out at 20 basis points, which is also all RIG. And of course, the rest of our portfolio, we've got good momentum, and you'll see us continue to take the actions that we're taking. And the pillars?
And the pillars. Look, Warren, the question to the 4 pillars. So you've seen -- it's a question of focus. And you have seen us talk 4 clear pillars where we have Coffee, PetCare, now Nutrition, which is the merger of Nutrition -- Nestlé Nutrition and Nestlé Health Science, and then Food & Snacks, which is a less global business I have mentioned in the video as well.
So what we're doing here is really giving clarity what needs to be clearly in the market. And in the market is meant by -- you've seen this photo that we showed in the video. And the best example is this picture of the sari-sari store in the Philippines, where all of these categories come together in one place. And we believe this is really the power of Nestlé in the market. And what the 4-pillar strategy gives is clarity of who is responsible for execution, who holds the P&L, who holds execution with customers, with clients, with the consumer. It's clearly the market. That stays in the market and it's undoubtedly and ambiguitly so. So this is very clear. And it's clear enough for all of the businesses, Coffee and PetCare has always been managed like this. Nutrition will now be managed like this. And then Food & Snacks is also a local business. So execution in P&L ownership is clearly local.
And we keep at the global level, what needs to be truly global, which is brand stewardship, brand long-term strategy, ways of working. What really needs to be global should stay global because it makes the company more efficient and more agile as such. So we're not doing a retooling and a restructuring and reorganization of the matrix. The market's still will report into a zone, but we will be clear about who does what in terms of local execution and P&L ownership and global long-term strategic ownership.
And if -- and one example is a good one, just to remember, we had Zone Europe that was organized in a category structure from out of Vevey. And Guillaume has done a really strong job with his whole team to move that structure back into a market-led structure. And you see the results already. You see the positive RIG that the zone is driving and the growth momentum that we're having. And also the share is back into green territory. And I believe this is really due to the capacity and the local execution muscle of these teams being close to consumer and owning the relationship with the customers in the market. So it's about focus and clarity and at the same time, simplification.
So we'll take the next question from Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan.
Maybe my first question, Philipp, on your strategic review, I think when you came in October at the first conf call, you mentioned that you were not necessarily satisfied with the overall innovation and marketing at Nestlé. I see your new categorization and the focus on some key cluster of innovation, if I may call it like that. But I'm a bit surprised that we've not heard how you maybe want to revamp the innovation and whether you -- the funnel of innovation that goes to market. So if you could talk about that?
And likely on marketing, I understand you want to improve the organization, but do you think 8.6% A&P to sales is enough? And what exactly it means to create the marketing of the future at Nestlé?
My second question maybe building on the previous question on the guidance. I just wanted to understand the sequencing of improvement through the year. So it seems that gross margin will still be constrained in the first half of the year, if I understand right with margin pressure, and then an acceleration of margin in the second half of the year. Anna, can you talk about the building block on that margin acceleration in the second half and the visibility, obviously, probably on cost inflation? You may have some visibility given your hedging, but the visibility of overall the pricing environment as you think about second half?
Thanks, Celine. So I'll start with the first question on innovation and marketing and pass over to Anna for the guidance.
Look, you're right, I called out my insatisfaction with marketing and innovation, the speed of it at Nestlé. And a lot has happened and is happening here in this regard.
When we talk about marketing of the future, it includes innovation because there is no marketing without innovation in that sense. And so what the team is doing is really looking at those best practices we have in the company. We're not starting from scratch here. We obviously have marketing capabilities here, but it's not unified and it's not driven as a global program. So what the team has done is really a program of upskilling our people, making sure we have -- we get the best marketing talent, and we have the best marketing talent within the group. That has started already last year.
We are building also an operating model around marketing. What is marketing of the future in terms of brand building, what is marketing in the future in terms of getting those best insights using technology, using the data to really not only build great communication, but build great products, turning those insights into exciting innovation for our consumers, using our R&D backbone to drive science and technology-driven innovation into those pipelines, which is really important.
And then I think what's also new and important is the focus that we're driving. And that links a little bit to your second part of the question on, is 6.8 or is any number enough to invest in marketing? And I believe it is enough because we also focus where that money is put. You have seen me talk about 400 brands being supported by paid media in the past. And we're focusing now on really putting money behind those brands and those platforms and those innovations where we can see we can drive growth. And hence, our upgraded growth platforms that are now 30% of sales with additional investment that should drive high single-digit growth going forward. That's not only 1 year of growth, that is sustained growth because it is powered by a great marketing program and a great innovation program.
And when we talk investment, that's also an important point to point out here. It's not only about marketing investment. It's also -- we invest in sales force, for example, where it's important to drive growth, look at sales reps that visit veterinary clinics for pet food or medical delegates that visit hospital or health care professionals. We invest in sales force when it comes to driving leads on our professional out-of-home business, et cetera. So the investment is not only marketing, but wider in terms of commercial opportunity to drive RIG let growth.
And for guidance, I'll pass over to Anna on the sequencing.
Yes. So on the gross margin, let me give you the moving pieces. So in terms of raw materials, overall, for the year, where we stand today, and of course, things may change, flattish, but that benefit or the cost of our raw materials will definitely be weighted as a benefit towards the second half as we work our way through our hedged volumes. Obviously, there's still then inflation on our conversion costs.
The other thing to have in mind is tariffs because there are still tariffs enacted. So that, from a cost perspective, will disproportionately impact the first half because we're lapping a period where there were no tariffs in the prior year, less so the second half.
Equity, pricing is the other way. We'll have the carryover pricing from the quite high levels that we've seen this year. And while we will continue to look for pricing in those areas of company category opportunities, so we will still take price. You would expect pricing to likely be higher, benefit us more in the first half.
Efficiencies, we're very focused on efficiencies. So you will see us manage that throughout. And of course, FX has a bit of an impact on margin as well. And obviously, if you just look at today's spot rates, that is weighted towards the first half just when you look at the year-on-year FX rates.
So I say all of that to say those are the moving parts. Equally, if I reflect on last year, there was so much change during the year that this is a set of assumptions at a moment in time, and we'll have to watch how it moves. Equally, if you look at last year, there was enormous change through the year on FX, tariffs, commodities. And we were able to take the right actions to manage that to deliver our guidance irrespective.
The next question comes from Tom Sykes at Deutsche Bank. Tom, are you there? Okay. We'll have to come back to Tom and move on to take the next question then from Jeff Stent at BNP Paribas.
Two questions, if I may. The first one is, if I look at the midterm category growth expectations that you put out, those seem to average meaningfully below 4%. So can you quantify the magnitude of the share gain that's implicit in your 4% plus midterm guide? That's the first question.
And then the second question is, from my perspective, it's not obvious that the performance in Nutrition really improved when it moved from being globally managed to being locally managed. So I'm just wondering why that should be the case with NHS?
Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Look, I'll start with the second question, and I'll pass over to Anna on how much of the share is in the growth.
Look, we have 2 great Nutrition businesses. And we have not been working together in the most optimized way. And you've seen the success we have been able to drive with the setup we have in coffee and in pet food so far. And my thought was when we looked at the strategy of the Nutrition business as a whole, bringing those 2 businesses together made a lot of sense. And having it managed like we do, like I just explained before, with very clear clarity on who does what in terms of execution and go-to-market and a global view on the strategy, long-term strategy, the long-term innovation and brand stewardship.
If you take just an example, why we can say globally managed business, but then it was not as global as we would think it was. So take a brand like Orgain in the U.S., which is a power brand when it comes to nutrition, especially protein. But somehow we were not -- as we were not linked the right way, we're not collaborating the right way, we were unable to launch this brand beyond the U.S. So it's a brand that doesn't exist beyond the U.S. And that is what the new structure will definitely be able to do in a much better way to take great ideas and great brands from one place and bring it to another, and then drive true category growth when it comes to infant nutrition, when it comes to adult nutrition.
And also our vitamin business, I believe, has much more potential to grow outside the U.S. And I think by having a global view of these strategic aspects will help us to drive growth, innovation, but also category growth into the future. So that's why I think it's a good idea. And it's based on growth. And by the way, it will also drive some simplicity, some efficiency, some synergies to make us, again, leaner and more agile as a nutrition-focused company.
And on the category growth -- and David, correct me, I think it's Slide 42 that has the category growth. I call it out because I think it's a helpful slide, but you can tell me if I've remembered the slide number right.
That's the right...
When you know the slide numbers by heart, you're doing well. It's a useful slide because what it says is that 70% of our portfolio is solidly growing in that 3 to 4 territory, and has got good growth momentum. And then there's 30% of that -- of our portfolio, where we are seeing really high levels of category growth. So where we would expect to be growing high single digits. And that's not because of share gain. I mean some of it is share gain, but really, it's because we're driving the category or it is a pocket of the category that shows disproportionate growth.
So some examples, therapeutic pet diet, RTD coffee, cold coffee, air fryers, the new cooking areas. So they're structurally much, much faster growing. And so what's implicit in our -- and why we're confident of our more than 4% guidance is the fundamental strength of our categories, but the degree of effectiveness that we're seeing that when we focus on these faster growth areas, we really made good headway.
And you've seen us do that in 2025, around 10% of sales. We entered at about around 30% of sales with significant increased investment in 2026. And that collectively underpins the more than 4%. So it is the category growth rate, but it is also about making sure we're playing in those pockets that are growing much faster and accelerating them. And we hold ourselves to the bar of also gaining share, not losing it.
We'll take the next question from David Hayes at Jefferies.
So 2 from us. First, on the business units and then a question on the recall. So just on the business use, just to dig gain into this. Should we understand that the operational overlaps of the 4 business units are reducing that the IT systems are getting a little bit more stand-alone as we're almost reversing some of the global IT investment over the last couple of decades, I guess? And I guess what I'm going with that is, is there a view to try and upgrade these businesses to be relatively stand-alone, so there's optionality or maybe spinning them off?
And then that leads on to the second part of the question is, have you review whether Nestlé is a little bit too big still now? I guess that's a question that comes up over the years. And what I'm thinking is are you putting more pressure on the business units to deliver in a more challenging environment, maybe they're taking more risk and, let's say, 10 years ago, is that more difficult to control centrally as the business is being asked to do more and be more kind of agile? So is that where this is kind of providing optionality?
And then the second question, more of a micro question just on the recall. As of now, the last few weeks, can you give us a sense of what you're seeing in terms of retailer repurchasing, consumer offtake, just in terms of whether you are seeing a brand equity demand drop at the moment and how you think that plays through from today through the rest of the year?
Good. Thanks, David. Look, I'll start with the recall question and -- look, the recall, you have seen what we have done. I mean, we were first to recall. And what the whole company is focused on now is to replenish the market. So our factories are working 24/7 since weeks now to recover stocks and to get shelves restocked. Also given the fact that this has been an industry-wide issue. And obviously, these are essential products for mothers and babies, obviously, that have to be restocked. So we're focused on that.
Look, consumer offtake, it's early to say. This is the uncertainty we have, but we're very confident that the consumer will come back. It's one of those categories where you recruit every day. Every day, you have new consumers, new mothers coming in. We are confident that through the actions we have taken, swift action, fast action with the concern about the safety of our consumers in -- at the center, we have really good trust by health care professionals and authorities. And we're investing in the brands. We're investing in, in explaining to health care professionals why our products are great quality superior and why it's a great choice for the babies. Obviously, all needless to say, everything that we are shipping is safe, and is of great quality and is fully tested.
I don't believe personally that we will have a long-term issue on the brand equity here. I think this will come back. It might take some time, but this is a trust that we have to rebuild, and we have the brand, and we have the capacity to do so. There's also innovation coming in, in infant formula that we're launching, and so I'm confident it will come back. And so that's how I see that. We're investing, as we speak, and we should build confidence as we speak.
Then maybe quickly to the second part of your first question, and I'll give the IT one to Anna, I know she's passionate about that one.
Is Nestlé too big? No, it's not -- and again, that's why I love this photo of the store in the Philippines. This is where Nestlé is at its best, when those 4 businesses that we are focusing on come together in the market. And then the size does matter in the market because you will not be able to execute a small store in a way if you are a small company. And if all of those businesses come together, we use our common route to market. We use our common capabilities, our negotiating power in the market. This is how the execution looks in the store.
And this is not only the Philippines. This happens across the world. This can also be in a modern trade aisle. And this is where we have the power of these businesses coming together, these brands coming together. And it's not about centrally controlling anything. It's really giving the empowerment to the markets to execute flawlessly, like that store in the Philippines. But obviously, respecting global brand guidance, stewardship, the brand, when it's Nescafe. Nescafe shows up in a similar way, in the same way in the Philippines than it does in Mexico than it does in Switzerland. It's a Nescafe, and that is driven here by the center.
So it's not about control. It's about pulling into the center what really matters in the center, which is global alignment, global strategic alignment and also ways of working, which then brings me to your IT question. We have -- you can say global ways of working, it might be -- it's the most efficient way that you design workflows in a way that is efficient for the company as a whole, and it makes a ton of sense that we have workflows that are driven the same way in each and every country we operate. And that is what brings me then to why Anna is passionate about our IT backbone.
And I am. I joke that one of the reasons I joined Nestlé was that we have a wall-to-wall single instance, SAP ERP infrastructure. But what it gives us -- and we do have a single tech backbone that sits across the entire group for the vast majority. And we're getting much more disciplined around that. What it gives us is an absolutely fabulous group-wide data structure, which is allowing us to move much faster on things and have much greater relative understanding of things.
So to give you some examples, why are we getting better at managing our working capital because we can see exactly where it's sitting everywhere all of the time, what some of the issues are. Why are we getting better at resource allocation, because that data set allows us to really see where we're investing and it's working well versus we're investing, and we're not quite seeing the returns that we would expect.
And it's interesting with respect to the infant formula recall. We can see what's going on with the consumer, both our sell-in and increasingly our sellout across those brands and all other brands, more or less real time. And it's this insight that allows the group to really react with pace to serve the consumer because it allows us to see what's working. So yes, I'm passionate about that data structure and tech backbone, but it's incredibly valuable to us.
The next question comes from Sarah Simon of Morgan Stanley.
On IMF, just -- sorry, back to answer the David question. But if you can see in real-time, Anna, what's going on, can you just talk about, based on what you're seeing now -- and you've caveated that OSG could be towards the lower end of the range. Is that based on an assumption that what you see now sort of persists? Or what are the kind of factors that would get us towards the lower end of the range?
And then the second question was around ingredients. So Chinese ingredients obviously have been impacted sort of the cause of recalls in other products historically, not just at Nestlé but at other companies. And we've also had COVID, obviously. So the question is whether you have reconsidered any of your ingredient sourcing to be a, more local, so you don't get quite the same kind of global impact; and b, whether you feel more comfortable about sourcing kind of outside of China?
Yes. Thanks, Sarah. I'll give the first one to you Anna, on the guidance. I'll take the ingredient one afterwards.
So with respect to the infant formula recall, maybe just some color. It varies hugely by geography. It depends on whether we're back on shelf fully, which we're increasingly achieving, but not everywhere quite yet. It depends on whether the competitive set are also recalling. It also depends on -- we've got some markets where literally, it was a tiny, tiny volume. And so the recall has been sort of not even visible. And some markets where the stock was under our control. So while we've recalled it, it's not actually been something that's been felt or experienced by the consumer.
So the experience varies very differently by market. And therefore, we are monitoring and understanding at that level of granularity. Our insight both around the category, and that is broader years of knowledge around how parents make decisions about what formula to feed and where they go to for advice and the medical community and our relationships with them. It's all of that data that we put together, which has informed the guidance that we give today.
Good. And as far as your question on ingredient, look, I don't believe it's a geographical issue here on where we're sourcing ingredients from. What needs to be important is that all the ingredients we source independently of where we source ingredients from have to be of the highest quality. And that we have to ensure. And we have to ensure that when they're coming to our factories, but also when they are produced in suppliers, as was the case with the infant formula case. That is my view. So it's not about where we source ingredients from. We just need to ensure that they're of the best quality to produce flawless products in our factories.
And in this particular case, it was not an obvious one, as we have said. It is not cereulide in oils. It's not something that was prevalent. And this is obviously also -- moving forward, as risks become different and testing methods advance, we just have to be one step ahead on this one. But it's not about geography and where we source from. It's really about ensuring the best supply, and that is what we're doing at Nestlé. We have -- our quality assurance in our factories goes way beyond what you can call good manufacturing practices. And as I've said before, our quality standards are, in many, many places, much more stringent than the legal or the regulatory requirements. So it's not about geography. It's about having great quality everywhere that we produce.
The next question comes from Fulvio Cazzol from Berenberg.
So my first one is on -- regarding your strategic review. Can you highlight why you haven't taken the decision to, say, monetize the L'Oréal stake and maybe use the proceeds to buy back some of your own stock and maybe pay down some debt?
And then my second one is on the cost savings. So you're delivering these at a faster pace. And I was just wondering, with the new organizational structure and high simplification coming in, shouldn't there be more cost savings for you to go after, i.e., is there a potential for you to deliver more than the 2028 CHF 3 billion saving target that you highlighted back in October?
Yes. Thanks for this question. So look, I'll start with L'Oréal. I'll pass over to Anna afterwards. But look, we have spoken a lot about L'Oréal. My view and our view is that the best way to create shareholder value, long-term shareholder value is to grow the company. And that's where we focused on. That's my and the team's #1 priority. And obviously, as with all of our investments, all of our businesses, we look at the L'Oréal stake periodically.
We have said many times, it's a financial investment. We are a happy holder. But today, it's not on my #1 priority list. We have a lot of -- you have seen some actions we've taken on the portfolio. There's more to be done in terms of balance sheet cleanup, as we have said with Anna at the 9-month call, that's what we're working through, and we're focusing fully on growth.
But Anna, you might have some more color on the financial outcomes?
Yes. So on the cost savings. The removal of the globally managed business does create some cost savings of, call it, 10 basis points, give or take. And that is -- that was not foreseen or not included in the CHF 3 billion that we guided to in terms of cost savings. So it does come on top equally. And from our perspective, it's important that it comes on top because it's important that we hold ourselves accountable to delivering.
Equally, in 2026, I don't expect it to be a big benefit to the group at all because you've heard from Philipp, that this is around accelerating growth. And so what you'll see us do is be very thoughtful around working our way through change in order that we are grabbing those growth opportunities as fast as possible and delivering on them.
And as I look forward, actually, by the time we get to 2027, we will have -- be moving into disposal of that other piece of the VMS business. And of course, there'll be some stranded costs, which will take a little bit of time to take out. So we'll see the benefit, but also we'll have to work through removing those stranded costs. But that's how I think about it.
And I guess the other thing I would say is we're not limited by the targets we've given. What we are trying to do is find the right level of simplicity, agility and efficiency for the organization, and we will keep looking at that and update you as we go.
Yes. And absolutely, Anna, I think when there is opportunities to drive additional cost savings and simplification, we will obviously do that. That's part of performance culture, and that's what we will do, but there's nothing new to announce here today, but we'll take any opportunity that comes.
The next question comes from Jeremy Fialko at HSBC.
A couple of questions from me. So the first one is on the gross margins in coffee and confectionery. You put that slide up showing how they're still a long way below their pre-pandemic levels. So could you talk about, firstly, just if you think about the price rises that are currently sort of in the market or planned plus where some of these commodities have moved, how much of that you think you'd be able to close in 2026? And then what do you think you need to do in order to get those gross margins sort of back to where they were previously?
And the second question is on China. Perhaps you could talk a bit about where you are in terms of the reset of that business model, what you're seeing in terms of sort of sell-out trends there and how you think that could perform in '26?
Brilliant. Anna, you take the gross margin on coffee and confectionery. I'll talk to China in a second.
Yes. So I mean, look, we'll have to see how commodity prices play out, and we'll have to see how the consumer environment plays out. And I'm not going to prejudge any of that. But what I would say is we're very good at recovering our gross margin over time. And we do it through innovation, through price pack architecture, where we're making sure that the pack size is at a price point that is affordable to the consumer, but we innovate at a margin that works.
We also look very hard at the customer and channel mix and how we're making sure that we've got the right consumer offering in each of the channels. And by working our way through this and really leveraging innovation, we recover our gross margin over time. And that's what you've seen us do in the other categories. And it's quite a proven path.
What you'll see us do in coffee and confectionery is work our way through exactly that. And where there are those geographic pockets where we can take price, we will. But otherwise, we'll be working our way through making sure that we've got absolutely great offerings, but at the right margin. And this is where having a great R&D organization is also really helpful.
Good. And on China specifically, look, if you take a step back in China, China is still a place where the underlying category growth of where we play is negative. And that sentiment has not been improving. So that's where we stand. But regardless of that, the team is laserly focused on destocking the market. So we're drawing down stock levels, as we have announced. We are rebuilding the marketing muscle. We're rebuilding the innovation muscle, and we're rebuilding the route to market and trust of our distributors. And this is still ongoing. So expect this to be fading out throughout H1, and then we will see a gradual improvement throughout H2.
But then again, this is against a negative category growth in China. I'm confident we will be able to rebuild this and rebuild our brands, but it will take time to get those categories back to growth. And we have great brands in China, local brands, global brands and great capabilities. And the team is renewed with a lot of energy. And obviously, we all want China to come back to be a growth driver for the company, but it will take some time.
And we'll take the final question from Patrik Schwendimann at ZKB. And this is a final question in several senses because I think this is Patrik's last call with us after covering Nestlé for many years.
Much appreciate. It's Patrik Schwendimann, ZKB. Philipp, Anna, all the best for the future and the coming years.
So my first question is on the gross margin again. Gross margin was above 49% in the years '17 to 2020, so for several years. In '25, it came down now to 45.6%. What do you think is the new structural gross margin level in the midterm? Has there been -- anything changed here?
Then second question regarding the portfolio management. You mentioned more focus in Food & Snacks. At the same time, frozen is not for sale. Where do you see more focus in Food & Snacks? And regarding portfolio management in Nutrition, is Nestlé still the right owner of Gerber?
Yes. Thanks, Patrik. Look, I'll start with the portfolio one and then have Anna close with the gross margin question.
So your 2 portfolio questions. Look, in Food & Snacks, the focus you've seen, I mean, one simplification is obviously the sale of our remaining ice cream businesses that was in that business. The simplification is also that those 2 businesses, we can innovate in the space where these 2 businesses converge, so Food & Snacks, given the new trends of eating more often, eating smaller portions, eating more on the go, there is innovation there.
There is also focus on less brands. You have seen that we have less global brands in this portfolio. KitKat is a very good example that is in there. This is a truly global brand in over 100 countries and markets. We're investing heavily behind these brands. It's one of those brands that has a 10% CAGR over the last 10 years. And there's so much innovation that we can drive there.
And the focus is really putting more emphasis on less brands. And that includes some of our local jewels or regional jewels like these great brands, Totole, we mentioned. We mentioned Garoto in Brazil. That is really -- that are really local jewels and can drive local relevant revenue growth. But it's not about a complex portfolio, spreading the money thinly on many priorities. It's really prioritizing on where we can drive most growth. So that's when we talk about simplification and focus in -- within Food & Snacks.
And then is Nestlé the right owner for Gerber? And look Gerber is -- I'm unhappy with Gerber still. This is still a drag in terms of market share, and we're still not where we should be. The team is working relentlessly to get innovation back on shelves and to revive the brand. And I have said, I'm not infinitely patient, but we have to give it a try to drive growth in this category. I believe in the category. It's an essential category when you think about our nutrition portfolio for kids and toddlers.
So we'll innovate within the space. We also can bring other brands. That's another advantage of bringing Nestlé Health Science and Nutrition together. Could other brands play in the space where Gerber plays and can they join up forces. So we'll give this a try. We'll give it a try to grow there to drive category growth. And then I'll come back to your question when -- later on to see if we are the right owner or not. But I want to believe we can drive growth in this exciting space and this exciting brand that has a long heritage. And -- but we'll give it a try, but we'll not wait forever to make it successful. On...
Yes, gross margin. So I don't see that there's been any structural change in our business. We should be able to recover our margins to where they were previously. As I say, when we have commodity price increases, you see our margins dip and then you see us take actions to recover them.
More generally, over the medium term, I think one of the things that supports robust gross margins is the strength of the marketing and the innovation. And that's why you hear us so focused on upskilling and driving the quality of our marketing and innovation because where you've got a really strong pipeline and you've got brands that are growing share, that is what supports great gross margin over the medium term.
Thank you, Philipp. Thank you, Anna. We will have to close there, and I will hand over to Philipp for some concluding remarks.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you, David. And just to quickly wrap up the call, you've seen a lot of material, and really thank you for being up so early to be with us.
Look, you have seen, our actions are working. Our growth is improving, which is exciting. The strategy is clear. Our execution is strengthening across the globe. And we are really confident that with the structural changes we are taking, we will drive continuous growth for 2026, continuous growth and improvement for 2026 and beyond. And I really thank you for being with us today, the interest, the questions, and I'm looking forward together with Anna to see many of you in the coming days and weeks as we travel to get more details to your questions. Thank you very much.
Nestlé — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to Nestlé's 9-month sales call. I'm David Hancock, Head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Philipp Navratil, our new CEO; and by Anna Manz, CFO. As you know, this is Philipp's first earnings announcement as CEO. To keep the call focused, we filmed a short interview with Philipp where you can hear more about his background and experiences. The video will be posted on our website at the end of this call, and I encourage you to take a look.
Now moving to the call. Please take a moment to review the usual disclaimer. So a quick overview of the agenda. Philipp will share his key messages on strategic priorities and how he sees the business. Anna will take us through the 9-month results in detail, and we will then open up for Q&A.
And with that, I hand over to Philipp.
Thanks, David. Good morning all, and thank you for joining our 9-month results presentation. Over the last few months, our organization has gone through a lot of changes. Despite all of that, we have delivered a good Q3. I want to thank our people for staying focused on the business and embracing the transformation journey ahead of us.
It is a privilege to lead this great company. We have strong foundations to build on. But let's be clear, we have a lot of work to do. I am very focused on how we move faster with our transformation to accelerate our growth momentum. And the action we are now taking will secure Nestlé's future as a leader in our industry. We have been making good financial progress with a strong Q3. Our investments in growth are starting to show results. We are determined to deliver on our commitments, and I am confirming our full year 2025 guidance. We are moving in the right direction. Now we need to move faster.
As CEO, I want to share with you my 4 big priorities. Driving RIG-led growth is the most important. We will be bolder in investing at scale and driving innovation. Second, we must have a winning portfolio. I'll be looking at everything in a rational way. Where we aren't performing, I will act and act with urgency. Third, it is critical that we build a culture that delivers and rewards performance. Last, we are accelerating our business transformation and our cost savings plans to build a stronger company. Doing all of this will deliver improved performance and shareholder value.
Driving RIG-led growth is the #1 priority for us. We have seen stepping up growth investments, and we are seeing positive results. Our organic growth year-to-date is 3.3%, up from 2.0% this time last year. That's an acceleration of 130 basis points. Out of that, 60 basis points has come from an acceleration in the areas we have prioritized for growth investments and 40 basis points has come from improved growth in our 18 key underperforming sales. These 2 areas are driving the majority of growth acceleration.
Our increased investment in priority opportunities doubled the growth of these businesses from 7% to 14%. And our key underperformers, the growth rate improved from minus 2.5% to flat. And excluding the sales that are in Greater China, the underperformers grew 1.5%. So what we are doing is working. What I'm not happy about is that these priority growth opportunities are only 10% of our sales and flat growth in our underperformers is nowhere near good enough.
So now we need to go bigger and bolder, investing at scale behind the highest return opportunities. This means being rigorous about which opportunities have the best returns and then significantly increasing the resources we give them. During this year, we have increased investment in a number of areas to accelerate our growth. These are largely right, and they are working well, as I just showed. But they are a bit of a mix of products, platforms and brands, and they are not big enough.
To drive growth at scale, we must go beyond individual innovations and do this in a structured way. Start with the big strategic consumer platforms, build multiyear innovation pipelines for these platforms and execute flawlessly with high-quality marketing through our billionaire global brands. Take the example of Nescafé espresso concentrates, 1 of our 6 big bets. The strategic consumer platform here is cold coffee, an incredible growth opportunity. We built a strong multiyear innovation pipeline for that.
I know this well because we did some of it while I was running the Coffee business. The espresso concentrate actually came out of that pipeline. We are bringing it to the market globally under the Nescafé brand, the world's #1 coffee brand. We now need to take it to our other 2 leading coffee brands. We need this structured scaled approach across all of our categories. To be successful with that, we need to step up our marketing capabilities across the organization. We are not strong enough, and that needs to change.
At Nestlé, I really think that our portfolio is a huge competitive advantage. There are very significant benefits to scale, for example, negotiating with customers, innovation capability, brand trust and access to talent. But we only get the scale benefits if we are winning in the individual businesses. I will consistently review every part of our portfolio with an open mind, unconstrained by preconceived ideas. I look at assessing business on 4 key questions: Is this a growth category? Is the returns profile attractive? Are we positioned to win? And are we actually winning?
Across most of the portfolio, the answer to these questions is yes, although we are not yet winning as much as we need to. But if our assessment concludes that one or the other business does not meet the criteria I described, we will act, whether that means fixing, partnering or selling. Just to confirm, we are continuing with the strategic evaluation of Waters and mainstream VMS. Delivering on our strategy requires a relentless focus on execution and a culture that drives high performance. Nestlé's culture has many strengths, and there are areas where we must evolve. Accepting that we lose market share is no longer an option. This mindset has to change.
Until this year, we did not have a common set of KPIs worldwide. This has changed, and we now have forward-looking indicators focusing on innovation and execution. This is a big step forward. Now we need to use them consistently across the group. Most importantly, compensation will be driven by performance. This ensures rewards reflect achievement. And personal objectives will be much more rigorous, measurable and consistent across the group. These steps will help us build a culture that recognizes and rewards excellence across the organization. The fourth focus area for me is our business transformation; how we work better, smarter and faster and with a lower cost base.
Getting this right is fundamental to creating value in our business. Our scale and breadth bring advantages, which I touched on earlier, but they also can bring complexity, and this creates inefficiencies. I have started to look at this, and we will spend more time on it over the coming months. It is clear that we can get more agile in how we work with simpler structures and roles. We have made great progress in the last year in mapping our processes across the organization, so we don't look at them in silos.
This gives us the basis to simplify, digitalize and automate our processes and get full value out of our shared services. This will give us a better, more agile business. We will take hard but necessary decisions to reduce headcount. Historically, we have avoided being fully transparent about these changes, and I want to be transparent. We plan a reduction of 12,000 white-collar professionals across functions and geographies over the next coming 2 years.
In addition, we plan a further 4,000 headcount reduction as part of our ongoing productivity initiatives in manufacturing and supply chain. This will drive cost savings, and we have increased our "Fuel for Growth" savings target by CHF 500 million by the end of 2027. So in conclusion, my 4 priorities: RIG-led growth, winning portfolio, performance culture and transformation and efficiency. I will drive all of this with urgency to accelerate our growth performance and deliver improved shareholder value.
I will now hand over to Anna, who will take you through the detailed financial results for the period.
Thanks, Philipp. Good Morning. Moving to our 9-month sales. We delivered 3.3% organic sales growth with RIG of 0.6% and pricing of 2.8%. Sales were negatively impacted by FX movements with the strengthening of the Swiss franc. For the Group, organic growth strengthened in the third quarter to 4.3% with a good recovery in RIG. And within this, there are a few different dynamics. Firstly, it's helpful to pull out China and Nestlé Health Science on the right-hand side of the slide. And that's because the issues and corrective actions in these businesses are different, and we've talked about them in detail last quarter.
Looking at the middle chart, you see what's going on within the other 88% of the business. For the last 4 quarters, up into Q3, organic growth has accelerated as we have taken pricing given input cost inflation in coffee and confectionery. Despite increased pricing, we were able to hold RIG broadly flat. And that is because we are delivering a growing impact from both our investments in priority growth opportunities and improvements in our 18 underperforming sales, as Philipp took you through a few minutes ago.
After 4 quarters of stable RIG, Q3 saw a marked improvement, and that's is due to 3 factors. Firstly, the benefit of actions, which I just talked about, continuing. Secondly, we benefited from an easier comp in Q3, both in terms of RIG and OG. This will get harder again in Q4, especially for OG. And finally, we have taken some selective actions to manage a small number of areas where our pricing had moved out of reach of the consumer. At the beginning of the year, I said we would be front-footed about pricing to protect our structural profitability, but that we would be nimble and adjust to our consumers' reactions. And that is exactly what we are doing, optimizing price where it has gone too far. And it is working. We're getting pricing whilst improving RIG and market share. An example is the introduction of the promo packs in a confectionery product in Brazil.
So stepping back, as you heard from Philipp, there is a lot for us to do to accelerate performance. But in Q3 overall, we see that things are moving in the right direction. Now let's get into a bit more detail on the segments. And here, I'm going to focus on the third quarter.
In Zone AMS, growth has been accelerating, helped by softer comps in Q3. The acceleration was driven by LatAm, while North America held its momentum as we gained market share across most categories. By category, Coffee and Confectionery drove the growth. This was led by pricing, but supported by good RIG in Coffee and an improving RIG trend in Confectionery as we acted to manage price elasticities. Growth in Pet reflected ongoing category softness, but was stable from Q2 to Q3. And in Food, we continue to improve our market share trends in U.S. Frozen.
Turning to AOA. In Greater China, the organic growth decline in Q3 was similar to that in Q2 as we reduced trade inventory levels and shift our focus to generating consumer pull. In the rest of AOA, growth was broad-based, and there was good sequential improvement, particularly across the larger markets in Asia. RIG was strong across markets and categories, and we gained market share across much of the business.
In Europe, we saw a nice improvement with RIG of 2% in Q3, helped by a softer comp. The biggest drivers were Coffee and Confectionery. And again, this was a combination of pricing and targeted actions on elasticities. The other important growth driver is PetCare, where RIG was strong, driven by good market momentum and strong performance of our innovations. Growth was solid across most geographic markets.
Turning to the Globally managed businesses and again, focusing on the third quarter. In Nestlé Health Science, we are still lapping tougher comps, but we saw good performance in premium VMS, improvement in Nature's Bounty and innovation driving strong growth in Orgain. Nespresso continues to perform well with another quarter of solid growth in both price and RIG. Q3 benefited from a particularly successful limited edition summer campaign.
In Nestlé Waters & Premium Beverages, we continued to see solid growth in Waters, but the category softened towards the end of the summer due to cooler weather in Europe. In premium beverages, our investments are driving double-digit growth.
Turning to our categories. Powdered & Liquid beverages, which is mainly coffee, continued to grow strongly, driven by pricing and with RIG of over 2% in the quarter. The PetCare category is currently sluggish, but stable. And overall, we are holding or gaining share. We remain positive about the medium-term growth outlook, and we're focused on accelerating category growth through innovation and investment in fast-growing areas such as therapeutic diets and supplements. I have already covered Nestlé Health Science.
And in Nutrition, performance continues to be impacted by Gerber in the U.S. This is one of our more stubborn underperformers. We are taking the right actions across brand, innovation and cost, but given U.S. retailers have annual shelf reset cycles, we won't see results improving for another few quarters yet. Prepared dishes and cooking aids was predominantly driven by Frozen, where we are taking share despite ongoing category softness.
In the rest of the category, incremental investment in Maggi is driving strong results. Milk products and ice cream growth was positive with price-led growth in ambient dairy and strong RIG in coffee creamers. And in Confectionery, growth remains strong, and we are starting to lap the price increases that began last year and RIG is on an improving trend.
Our Fuel for Growth program is on track to deliver CHF 700 million of savings for 2025. As you know, the largest portion of savings in the program come from procurement, where we are making good progress. Philipp has just talked about his focus on operational efficiencies. The business transformation he has described will lead to a planned reduction in our white collar headcount of 12,000. This will deliver CHF 1 billion of annual savings, which is CHF 500 million more than our original plan and takes our Fuel for Growth savings target to CHF 3 billion by the end of 2027.
These additional savings will be reinvested, more fuel for driving growth. For the headcount reductions, there will be a restructuring cost of about 2x the annual savings, so expected to be around CHF 2 billion. In short, we are increasing efficiency and reducing complexity as we accelerate business transformation.
Turning finally to guidance. We are maintaining our full year guidance despite increased headwinds since the beginning of the year. Our organic sales growth is expected to improve compared to the 2.2% in 2024, and we are well on track after the first 9 months. As we look to the rest of the year, we continue to have good growth momentum, but do keep in mind that we have a tougher comp in Q4 than we had in Q3. The UTOP margin is still expected to be at or above 16% as we invest for growth. And this assumes tariffs currently in place today, including the higher tariffs in Switzerland that came in after the half year.
The guidance also reflects today's FX rates. While we are continuing to execute with focus, macroeconomic and consumer uncertainty remains. And as we navigate these headwinds, I want to be clear that we won't compromise on investing for the medium term.
And lastly, let me comment on cash flow and dividend. Generating free cash flow is a key focus for us, and we expect to deliver at least CHF 8 billion of free cash flow this year. We are committed to our long-standing dividend practice, and this means we have to grow our free cash flow in Swiss francs faster on an ongoing basis.
To pull together everything you have heard from Philipp and I this morning, we delivered a good performance in Q3, and we are on track to hit our guidance for the full year. Our results demonstrate we are making progress. But as Philipp said, there is much more to do, and we need to accelerate. We are clear on our priorities. We will drive RIG through investing boldly. We will transform the organization and accelerate efficiencies, and we will improve cash flow. In short, we will move faster and act with urgency to deliver improved shareholder value.
And with that, I will hand it over to David for Q&A.
Thanks, Anna. So we'll now begin the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] The first question we have comes from Guillaume Delmas from UBS.
2. Question Answer
First question on margin. Philipp, you mentioned in your 4 priorities, you didn't touch explicitly on future margin development. So just wondering if you remain committed to some margin improvement in 2026 and a return to 17% plus over the medium term? Or I mean, as you flagged, the additional CHF 0.5 billion in savings will be reinvested. Are you signaling that RIG is the #1, 2 and 3 priority that the cost of doing business in packaged food is rapidly increasing and therefore, margin should be more viewed as the, I should say, byproduct of above industry average RIG rather than a clearly defined numerical target?
And then my second question is on the leadership at Nestlé because again, this morning, you're flagging the need for accelerating Nestlé's transformation with a particular clear focus on evolving and strengthening the group's culture. But my question is, do you think you have the right leaders in place across functions, regions or categories to successfully drive this ambitious change agenda? And here, I guess what I'm getting to is curious to hear your view on this. And despite the fact it's only been a few weeks, how you're planning on assessing the key leaders of the firm and whether we should expect some personnel changes over the coming months?
Thank you very much for the two questions. So to the first one on margin. So I'm absolutely committed to the guidance of getting back to 17% and above. What keeps me positive here is that we are generating the fuel to invest behind our growth platforms and to generate the growth to do this. So I remain committed to that. In terms of the leadership, which is a good question. So what we said we want to accelerate the transformation of the company. So we want to become a company that works faster, that is more agile, that is bolder in its decision-making.
And I do think we have the right leaders in place. But I also have said that we want to drive a performance culture within the company. And the performance culture means that we are all being measured on the same key performance indicators, and we will drive this through the company. And so it will be quite easy to assess who is performing and who is not performing.
And part of the performance culture is obviously making sure that the ones that perform are the ones we keep in the company and the ones that don't, they don't. And so this is what the performance culture means. And so I think today, we have the right leaders in the company, but we will be ruthless in assessing our talent, our people, and we will be driving performance throughout our organization as we have indicated.
The next question comes from Warren Ackerman from Barclays.
David Warren here at Barclays. Two from me as well. The first one is, Philipp, in your prepared remarks, you said the marketing spend is going to be a really big focus for you. I appreciate it's early days. But when you step back, what are your observations on the quality and quantity of the marketing spend? Is 8.5% or 9% the right level? And how do you feel about the returns that you're getting on marketing spend? That's the first one.
And then the second one is, can you talk a bit more about the underperformers? Obviously, quite a big inflection in them. They are improving, I think, you said flat overall for the quarter, but flat is not good enough for underperformers. What is good enough? And maybe can you explain what targeted actions you've taken? It sounds like there's a few places, a few spots where you're rolling back pricing because pricing got out of sync. Can you maybe elaborate on what you're doing, which areas? And has that been part of the reason why these underperformers are improving?
Thank you, Warren. Look, in terms of marketing spend, what we have said is that we want to invest more behind the biggest opportunity to drive sustained growth. And that is the prioritization we're going to do in really, really committing to invest more. But when I say investing more, it's not only marketing spend per se. When I see a growth opportunity, I think we have to think about investing behind those more broadly as well. So think about it, obviously, marketing, but then also about investing in taste and quality, formats, packaging. You mentioned investing in pricing is one part. We can invest in if the pricing was too much. Price and pack architecture is another one or think about investment in distribution and capabilities or digital capabilities when it comes to marketing.
So the investment I see is broader, but we are committed to investing more behind those areas. And that's important because I believe we have the right brands that can take this investment and generate growth.
And I'll pass to Anna quickly just on the specifics of the numbers that you asked, Warren, so to give her point of view on that one.
Thanks, Philipp. Yes. So just a couple of comments. I mean, based on what Philipp just said, I think one of the things we will look at going forward is whether marketing as a percentage of sales is the right individual metric, but that's something we will come back to over time. In terms of how you think about year-on-year, we're not guiding specifically for 2026 at this point, but you should expect marketing to be up on 2025 and 2026.
Thanks, Anna. And on your question on underperformers, where I'm unhappy with going back to flat growth. Obviously, what we want these underperformers to do is to generate more growth than they do today. And there are various levers that we're pulling to make this happen. It's not only pricing or any one lever. So these are real, sometimes complicated marketing plans where we need to get everything right. Some of it, we need to invest into having a better tasting product out there. Some of it is pure marketing capabilities. Some of it, we have not the right price and pack architecture in place or the brand is too weak to be performing. So there's many levers, and there's a lot of work going into these 18 underperformers that we have seen what we're doing is working, but it's not good enough and it's not fast enough.
And you mentioned some marketing capabilities, what will we change? And I think we just need to become the best marketers in the industry. And we have not been there in the past, and we're not there yet. And it's all about reading these underlying consumer trends correctly, being the best in driving these insights into winning meaningful innovation and then driving that into the market with a strong marketing plan, that is an overall marketing plan, but also we need to step up our capabilities in how we communicate digital capabilities, et cetera. And we have some good examples there, but it's not there across the board. And you can expect an update on that specifically by the full year what we're doing.
And back to Anna on that point specifically.
Just a specific point on the areas where we've adjusted pricing to just manage elasticities in the shorter term. That wasn't actually really around the 18 underperformers as such. Just as a piece of context for you, Warren, the improvement we've been making in our underperforming sales has been really consistent quarter-on-quarter. It's not a Q3 thing. It's been the actions that we've been taking over this last year. So it's been a very consistent change.
The next question comes from Olivier Nicolai at Goldman Sachs.
Congratulations on your results. Two questions on my side. First, on Nespresso. Could you quantify the phasing effect you mentioned in Q3? And then more specifically on the U.S., how much room for growth do you see for Vertuo? And then secondly, for Anna, perhaps considering your guidance on free cash flow of at least CHF 8 billion, and I believe you're also going to receive a dividend from Froneri. How should we think about Nestlé net debt to EBITDA in full year '25? Will you be able to be below 3x net debt to EBITDA this year? And when would you expect to go back towards 2.5x, assuming obviously, Swiss franc staying roughly where it is?
So I can take the Nespresso ones, I know this one well. So the third quarter was a really strong quarter. It was driven by a strong marketing campaign and strong innovation also that we had over the summer, which led to this growth. And as you point out rightly, most of the growth still comes out of the U.S. on the back of our winning Vertuo system over there. I believe there is ample avenues of growth still there.
There is -- if you look at it from a penetration point of view, portion systems is the way the U.S. drinks coffee, and we are underpenetrated still with the Nespresso system compared to our competitors. So there is -- what we're really doing is driving penetration-led growth, and it's working. And so the Vertuo system, I think, has still ample ways of growing there also because we are playing with 2 winning brands there.
We're playing on that system with Nespresso and with Starbucks, and this is working really well. And we have also tuned up, as I said before, our marketing capabilities there. You have seen the collaboration with The Weeknd, et cetera. So we're tapping into a younger consumer base as well, which is working too. So very positive on Nespresso going forward.
And over to you, Anna, on free cash flow.
Sure. So the CHF 8 billion of free cash flow guidance does not include the Froneri dividend, which doesn't impact free cash flow, although it does impact net debt. And to quantify the Froneri dividend for you just so you've got it, it's CHF 2.1 billion, and that benefits net debt. In terms of how we think about consistently bringing down our leverage, and we're very focused on that, the #1 way to do it is RIG-led growth because as we drive growth and improve our margin, we increase our EBITDA and our cash flow.
And so that is our single biggest focus. And related to that, we're very focused on all of those other elements that impact cash flow, so specifically working capital and CapEx to consistently bring those down. And of course, if we move into a partnership model with Waters and things like that, those will all help net debt over time.
The next question comes from Celine Pannuti at JPMorgan.
Philipp, maybe if I start with a question, you mentioned many times in your prepared remarks that you are focusing on faster transformation with a sense of urgency. Can you give some example of what you are planning to do? Like, I mean, what exactly it means that faster transformation? And you also mentioned in some of the prior questions, the need for reinvestment, not just in A&P, but across the different capabilities and marketing is one of those. Are you still committed? I think that was a commitment that was made during the road show this summer to increase margin in 2026, given those investments needed.
My second question is maybe more back to like Q3 performance. AOA was -- saw a strong step-up in RIG, 3.6%. And I looked it was the last time you did that was 2021. So while I understand it was broad-based, can you explain what happened from like a run rate that was much lower to such a step-up in RIG? And is the kind of like 2 to -- I mean, 3-ish percent RIG in that region a sustainable level?
Thank you very much, Celine. Look, on the business transformation and on the sense of urgency, is really about how we want to work. And Nestlé has not been the most efficient company in the past. And what we want to do today, and hence, also the announcement we have done today on headcount is really become an agile company, a company that takes decisions fast, a company that drives impact and a company that leverages its scale as well when it comes to how we work. So what we have said what we want to do is to become more digitalized, become more automated, become more fast in decision-making and also leverage our above-the-market capabilities in our shared service centers. That is a way to drive speed and also consistency across all markets.
And in the past, this has been more of an optional view if markets want to tap into those areas, but we want to make this how we work. And so we want to really scale those shared services and drive world-class services throughout our markets. So when we talk business transformation, think about it on how we want to become a faster, more nimble company that is driving growth. It's all about growth.
And in terms of your question on reinvestment and capabilities, as I said before, we are committed to go back to 17-plus percent of our margin in the medium term. And that means going there step by step. And while we invest in those capabilities, the best way to get to that margin improving is through driving, again, back to RIG-led growth. So the margin improvement comes through RIG-led growth, investing behind those growth opportunities that we think deliver the best returns. And specifically on your question on AOA and the RIG step-up, I'll pass it over to Anna.
Sure. So on AOA, maybe just to sort of firstly talk about China and then outside of China. I think we've talked about China a lot in the last quarter results. Quarter-on-quarter performance in China was similar. We'll continue to see China weigh on our growth for another quarter or so. And then we'll sort of see that demand generation come through and that we will see further acceleration in AOA.
Outside of China, we've got some really good momentum, and that's because of the investments that we've been making in those high priority investment areas. It's because of the work that we've been doing on consistently improving share loss sales, and it's because of some tactical elasticity adjustments we've made. But we're really seeing that show up strong performance across Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Pakistan. And I would say across the region, in most businesses, we're growing share. So good momentum.
Now as you think about what that means going forward, the fundamentals of what we're doing don't change. But in any given quarter, you've got to look at the comps. And as I look forward to Q4, you've got to be thoughtful about Chinese New Year timing because that impacts a number of markets in the region. And Chinese New Year is a little bit later next year.
Our next question comes from Tom Sykes at Deutsche Bank.
You've obviously generated 1.5% RIG in this quarter. There's flagging the comps in Q4. But when you look at the macro environment and where the business is now, do you think that 1.5% RIG is sort of the minimum or the level that should be expected? Or is what you're outlining something that progressively gets you there consistently? And when will the U.S. get to that sort of level, please, because you should have got a benefit from creamers, obviously, in this quarter.
And then just on the free cash flow, you've outlined getting over CHF 8 billion. I mean, is there any sort of way you could size the ambition in free cash flow, i.e., would it be greater the improvement in free cash flow than, say, the restructuring costs so you can delever excluding further disposals, please?
Anna, do you want to take those?
Yes, sure. So maybe first to just talk about RIG. So -- maybe I'll start with the medium term. So our medium-term guidance is to be growing over 4%, and that's because of the strength that we see in our medium-term categories. In that world, when we get there, we need to be delivering sustainable, strong RIG-led growth. We need to be delivering at least 2% RIG growth to sustain that kind of momentum. So what you're hearing us do is put the actions in place to consistently improve our RIG performance.
Now maybe just to unpick a little bit Q3 because there is strength in Q3, but maybe how to think about Q4 in that context as we are on our journey to accelerate towards a consistent. So really good Q3. There is a lot that is going on an underlying basis well with the business. And that's the work we're doing to improve our share loss sales, the work we're doing in those selective investment areas and the momentum that we've got there. And also the work we've done to look at some of those short-term elasticities and make sure that we're in the right place. So that all continues. But as we look forward to Q4, there's a couple of technical factors, which will impact us. So there is a tougher comp and Chinese New Year, which impacts a number of Asian markets is a little bit later. So that's the shape of it.
And I guess the other thing I would have in mind as you think about it is also we'll have to see how the consumer plays out over the holiday period in the current sort of macroeconomic environment. Now if I think about Q4 U.S. because I think that was your other question. U.S. RIG growth has been a little bit lower in Q3 and has been at the lower end for a little bit. And just to sort of give you a little bit the shape of that, 2 categories are weak and are holding us back there, frozen food and pet, although our share performance in both of those categories is strong. And actually, we've got good share performance across the U.S. So the big accelerator going forward, particularly will be pet coming back and frozen stabilizing a little bit.
In the quarter, just as a piece of context, we took price in Starbucks, and that slowed coffee a little bit just as we've taken that price, but I fully expect that to come back. So as you think about the U.S., as momentum in coffee comes back and as we see more innovation and capacity come into the pet category that allows us to innovate, that's what's going to drive the RIG acceleration there over the medium term.
And then in terms of free cash flow, so CHF 8 billion, we have said that we would expect free cash flow to improve from CHF 8 billion in 2026, and that stands -- CHF 8 billion or more. And that stands irrespective of there will be a cash cost associated with the restructuring. And for your models, you'll have had some restructuring costs in there. But of course, as we've announced a bigger restructuring, there's CHF 1 billion more restructuring costs that will be cash over the next couple of years probably than what you had before. I expect cash flow to improve irrespective of that in 2026 because of the actions that we are taking to accelerate the business and also manage all the levers of cash flow, specifically working capital and CapEx, and we'll be continuing to do that.
The next question is from Jon Cox from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yes, congratulations on the print. And I think the commentary, Philipp, has been broadly welcomed by the market. Philipp, maybe the first one for you. What about accelerating the winners? I was actually quite surprised to see it's only 10% of the portfolio. You mentioned this step-up from 7% to 14% as you put resources behind that. How can you actually broaden that part of the portfolio? I know a lot of focus is on sorting out the ones that are underperforming. But just wondering what your thoughts are on that, how to expand it? Is it tapping into what opportunities? There's a lot of things going on in the world, GLP-1s and a lot of different things out there, what your thoughts are on that? And then as a bit of an add to that, I'm just wondering if you could give us a rough idea of how the volume mix equation was in that 1.5% in the quarter.
And then maybe a question for Anna. Just back on the free cash flow. You've mentioned some levers. I wonder if you could just give us a bit more examples on that because free cash flow has never been great on a very long-term basis. The growth of free cash flow has not been great at Nestlé. What your thoughts are around CapEx to sales, which always seems to be much higher at Nestlé compared to peers. trade net working capital to sales, what you can do there.
And I'm just wondering, do you think aspirationally, you can come back to some of the bigger numbers we've seen over the years? I think you were close to CHF 12 billion, for example, back in 2019. Is this sort of directionally where you think you can go with free cash flow over the next few years? Any sort of granularity on that would be appreciated.
Thanks, Jon. I'll start with your acceleration question. And as you pointed out, when you look at our big bets and priorities that we have stated in the past, and we invested behind those. I said I was not happy with that the fact -- I'm happy with the fact that they are growing. So what we're doing is actually working. I'm really happy about that. But I'm unhappy with the size of those priorities, how much they add up, as you pointed out, it's only 10% of sales.
And how I'm thinking about it -- and I'll come back to you with more thoughts generally about this at full year. But how I think about it is winning consumer platforms. So I can give you 2 that we're already working on, and I think they're showing really good results. So one is, for example, cold coffee. Cold coffee is a huge consumer platform, and we have started to tap into that one in different ways. So we have launched those Nescafé concentrates that you have seen.
That is one way to tap into that. And that's one example, and it's actually one of the big bets. But as it is just one product, it's too small to be big enough to be a consumer platform. So I think about it as cold coffee. Cold coffee includes those concentrates, but also includes ready-to-drink coffee, for example, which is a growth category for us and also includes recipes -- cold recipes that you can prepare through Nescafé Dolce Gusto or through Nespresso, for example.
So think about it as big platforms that we will invest more broadly behind it. And then we have the right brands to play on it. So on that cold coffee platform example still, we have 3 fantastic brands to play on. So we have Nescafé, we have Starbucks and we have Nespresso. So we should be really being able to have a big impact. The other example I have there is, we call it modern cooking, and we have had a very good example where we tapped really early into a consumer trend, which is the growing penetration of air fryers at homes all over the world.
And we have launched specifically on the Maggi, but also other brands, mixes that can be used to prepare delicious dishes with air fryers. And we were fast in doing this. We had the right brand. We rolled it out, the right execution. But then modern cooking can be taken to other ways of cooking, and we're looking at that as well. So think about those platforms as being really larger consumer-driven platforms, and we're looking at those very thoroughly, and we'll come back with more details on more of those at full year -- around full year.
Then the second question was more -- well, I'll give those to you, Anna, on the volume mix equation in the RIG and your follow-up on free cash flow, Jon.
Sure. So I think the volume mix question was referring to the share loss sales. And I would say we're seeing both volume and mix. And it depends on the sell and the actions that we needed to take. So for example, I'll give you an example, in frozen -- for example, in frozen pizza, it was about getting our brands back into the consumers' repertoire. And so there, you saw volume-led share improvements before you saw the value-led ones.
So good volume -- we've seen good volume shift there, whereas something like confectionery in the Latin American market, for example, it's been more about mix because it's been about the right mix of choco bakery in some places to make sure that our products were tasting delicious, but at an affordable price point in a world of commodity increases. So it's a mix of both, and it's a thoughtful mix of both depending on the problem that we needed to solve for the consumer.
In terms of free cash flow, you're right, we've never been great at it, and that is a wonderful opportunity, and we need to get better. And it's also something that takes a little bit of time to get better because working capital is touched by many people across the organization, and we need to improve it at every one of those touch points. So to give you some sort of sense of that, so let's just start with working capital. What sorts of things are we doing? And why will it deliver sustained changes?
Well, historically, we've given targets on inventory that sort of reflected existing inventory levels and maybe a small improvement rather than looking at what's the optimum inventory level for the factory footprint that we have. And that meant that as we've added factories, we haven't always optimized how we're moving product around the network to really make sure that we're optimizing the cash that is there. So we're working through all of those things.
And actually, if you go back to what Philipp said, it is around having the right KPIs at the right level in the organization to drive these shifts. That's why I'm comfortable that there is an opportunity for sustained improvement. CapEx to sales is another interesting one. Yes, we are higher than the competitive set. And some of that is the nature of our categories and the fact that we manufacture more locally, and we need to do a better job of rightsizing our investments and making sure that we're getting the returns on them. And that is something that, again, there's a lot of work going into and will give us a sustained improvement in CapEx as a percentage of sales over time. So those are sort of sustainable improvements that we can and will deliver over a couple of periods.
The biggest driver of free cash flow and what will see us elevate our free cash flow levels to the levels that we should be at over the medium term is driving RIG and improving margin. And as you drive volume and improve margins, you drive EBITDA and providing you are improving your cash conversion on top of that, you see a healthy acceleration. I know I'm stating the obvious, but that is the single biggest driver. And so there's no reason why we shouldn't get back to some much stronger medium-term cash flow generation. I say that carefully because in the shorter term, there is a restructuring cash that we just need to work through over the next couple of years. But that is to drive a more nimble, sustainably better organization.
The next question comes from Sarah Simon at Morgan Stanley.
We will have to come back to Sarah. So we will take the next question from Patrik Schwendimann at ZKB.
We have seen an overall broad-based improvement in RIG and organic growth. The prominent exception was PetCare. What needs to be done that PetCare will be back on a mid-single-digit organic growth path? That's my first question.
Secondly, in infant nutrition, we have seen an improvement, but RIG was still down in quarter 3. I know the environment is not easy. But what needs to be done to get the infant nutrition business back to growth despite lower birth rates? Is this still an attractive category for Nestlé in the future?
Yes. Thank you, Patrik. I'll give some -- more midterm statements, and I'll give those then at the end to Anna. So on pet generally, we think the fundamentals of the category are really strong. So we see that the number of pets are increasing. Pets are more and more treated like members of the family. And also, we see caloric coverage increasing. So that is that is definitely a place that we see growth going further. And then on your question on infant nutrition and then Anna will be able to give a bit more numbers or more color to both of those.
I think I know that the birth rate is going back, but we believe this is a very attractive category for us still because this is where -- if you think about it, this is where Nestlé was born, and we have plenty of opportunities to grow the category further, and we have plenty of opportunities also to recover market share in markets where we have not been performing as we should. So we're looking forward to drive growth on both of those categories going forward. But Anna will be able to give you a bit more color to both of those.
Sure. So maybe let me start with Pet. And actually, maybe let me just talk about Pet in Europe for a moment because Pet in Europe is delivering mid-single-digit growth. And that sort of helps ground us, I think, in the potential of the category. And then we should talk about the U.S. and maybe why it isn't. So in Europe, we are there, and that's because there is good category momentum, particularly in cats. So across the board, we're seeing more cats being adopted and category growth is skewed there. And in Europe, we're very much a cat skewed market.
So we are benefiting from the category momentum. And actually, we're driving the category momentum, which is where we should be because we are innovating well into that category and the innovations are performing strongly. So that is an example of how pet should be working where we are using innovation to deliver on the consumer desire to feed their pets really lovely premium offerings.
So the U.S., we're not seeing that level of growth. The category momentum is much slower. Again, it's better in cat and much weaker in dog. We're seeing more cats being adopted, but dogs are flattish to a slight decline in the shorter term. And again, in the U.S., we are lapping a period where there was no promo. And so that has also had a sort of deflationary impact on growth a little bit. I think the opportunity in the U.S. to see category acceleration and our acceleration comes back to more driving innovation harder in that cat area where we're seeing good growth.
And as you know here, we are capacity constrained on wet cat. We've got more capacity coming on in Q3, which will help us and help us to deliver against that opportunity. And we've got then further capacity coming on stream towards the end of Q4. And in a market that is led by innovation and premiumization, that is really important because it's very hard to innovate without capacity to put through the plant. So that's Pet. A shorter-term comment on Nutrition. I think we're seeing an improvement in momentum in AOA and LatAm. So there's an acceleration there.
I think what's holding back our performance on infant nutrition at the moment is our performance in Gerber. And we've talked a bit about that. We're taking actions to improve Gerber's performance in the U.S., and that is both around brand innovation, distribution and cost. But we won't see the benefits of those actions come through until into next year because, as you know, in the U.S., retailers have an annual cycle around shelf resets. So we won't be able to win our distribution back until into next year. So it's going to be a drag for a little bit in the shorter term.
We'll take our next question from David Hayes from Jefferies.
Congratulations, Philipp, on the new role. Just related to that, I wonder if you could just give us a bit of a sense from your perspective, what the process was for you to get the role? And I guess, specifically, what you feel was your key pitch to the Board in terms of you getting that role? And then in that context, just almost playing back some of the answers you've given so far this morning, it sounds like your teams reviewed and/or is comfortable with the medium-term guidance that's not likely to change come February, but it sounds like maybe your team under your leadership is now still looking at reviewing some of the business units. Is that a reasonable summary about where you are in terms of you looking to sort of take the leadership on from here?
And I guess the second question, just to again, can always come back to what you talked about, a lot of moving parts on the RIG for the fourth quarter, you talked about on comps, et cetera, Chinese New Year. Can you give us a sense in terms of the scale of slowdown sequentially that you'd still be positive RIG would be expected when you net all those elements off?
Thank you very much, David. Look, on the process, how I got the role, obviously, this process was run by the Board, and there is a thorough succession planning and I was obviously on the list. But what my context was, and I think what I pitched and what I was advocating for is that I would be able -- I mean, I still have almost 24 years in the group. So I cannot say I'm not a Nestlé veteran. But I'm able to look at things with a fresh look, unconstrained by preconceived ideas.
And this is also when I talked about the portfolio, this is how I look at things. So I'm not really taken back by what we would have as dogmas and not taking decisions because we don't take decisions. So what I am standing for and you can really -- what you can expect from me is really transparency. You can expect accountability. This is what I also said many times, and you can also expect that I will drive and inculcate a sense of urgency throughout the organization. And I think as a company, we have to move faster.
We have a fantastic fundamentals to build on great scale, great company, great people, great brands, but we just need to move faster and we need to start winning out there. And that is also why I was quite clear in saying that we don't want a culture where losing market share is okay. It's not acceptable, and we need to win -- everywhere we play, we need to win. So you can expect also some competitiveness to be brought back to the organization and love for our brands because at the end of the day, that's what we sell. We sell great brands, and they're made of great products that we sell out there. So expect more of that.
And in terms of your question about RIG, I guess that was for Q4 RIG. I'll give that to Anna to give a bit more color on that, David.
Sure. So good question, David. We absolutely expect all of the actions that we are taking to continue to improve our underlying RIG momentum. And it's important that you hear that. And there are some technical factors, so comps, Chinese New Year. Are we going to have positive RIG in Q4? Absolutely. Now I'm not guiding on RIG, but we're absolutely -- there's a big difference between negative 0 RIG and 1.5. So we're not guiding on RIG, but it absolutely will be positive. And there are some -- it is just a slightly higher comp technical base for Q4.
I'm afraid we're at time, so we have to conclude there. Thanks for the questions and the interest. I'll pass over to Philipp for his concluding remarks.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you, David, and thanks all for attending the call. I'd like to conclude with a final message. And as I said, and I will repeat it many times, you can expect for me to focus on those 4 key priorities we have been calling out. The first and most important one is RIG-led growth, a winning portfolio, a performance culture throughout the whole company and transformation and efficiency. I will drive that with urgency, accountability and transparency to accelerate our performance and to deliver improved shareholder value. And I really thank you for your interest, your questions, and I'm looking forward as I go on to the road to meeting many of you in the coming days and months. Thank you very much.
Nestlé — Barclays 18th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
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So thank you, everybody, for joining the Nestlé fireside chat. The eagle eye amongst you might have noticed a slight typo on the holding side. Parry is changed outside, but just not in here. And good morning, Anna, and thanks for being here. And I think given the sudden change of the CEO, it's really appreciated that you've fronted up on the meetings yesterday and been as transparent as you can be. And you're now happy to sit down and talk to me and your investors sitting in the audience and those analysts and investors who are listening online or during the playback. So thank you.
So let's get into this. So I'm going to ask you the elephant in the room question. Can you maybe just outline as best as you can what happened with Laurent? And can you give us some context as far as you're able?
Sure. So back in May, we received a speak up through our internal channels, alleging a romantic relationship with an employee and improper favoritism and that was investigated through an internal investigation overseen by the Board. And no evidence was found at that point. And it was at that point that Laurent also made a personal statement stating that there had been no such thing.
Subsequent to that, we had a number of other speak-ups making slightly different allegations and with slightly different information. And on the back of that, the Board initiated a second broader external investigation, and it was that, that triggered information that led to the Board believing that there have been a breach of conduct and that they needed to act to change CEO.
In terms of the speed of change, why did it happen so quickly? Can you maybe explain a little bit around the succession planning? I think some people have been a bit surprised that perhaps there hasn't been a full internal, external process? What was the thinking?
Sure. I mean -- and it's interesting, I thought we've had lots of questions about succession at Nestlé. And Laurent was 62, I mean, he's 63 now. And so of course, the Board have been focused on succession considerably anyway. And a lot of work have been going on in the background looking at both internal and external candidates.
Now we didn't expect to find ourselves here now. So timing has come earlier. But I think the reason you don't see us do an external search now is because the Board felt that actually they've done all of the work and we're well placed, therefore, to appoint the best candidate that they have identified, which is Philipp. And in many ways, given that, that work has been done, and they can move quickly to appoint Philipp, it allows us to keep real momentum in the business.
Can you tell us a little bit more about Philipp or is it Phil or Philipp?
Philipp.
Why he's the right CEO for Nestlé and his background? It does seem to me a bit of a break from the past. He's a bit younger, 49, makes me feel old. He only joined the Executive Board, I think, in January. Am I right in saying that?
Yes.
He's led Nespresso, but he hasn't really had wider Nestlé experience. So just a little bit about him and his biography, I guess.
Sure. So Philipp has been with Nestlé for more than 20 years. He's done a broad range of jobs. He's run the global coffee business for Nestlé. And so it was Philipp that drove the rollout, for example, of Starbucks into 90 countries around the world. And more recently, he's led Nespresso.
He's a really strategic, thoughtful leader. He's also very pragmatic and executionally focused. And I've seen that working alongside him since he's been in Nespresso. He's really come into that job fast, and I've seen him act to invest to drive growth boldly whilst driving simplification across the organization. So I absolutely see why the Board have made the choice that they've made. And I think he'll bring a freshness of perspective and I think a pace to change at Nestlé, and I think that's one of the reasons that the Board has made this appointment.
And when should we expect Philipp to present to markets and meeting analysts and investors?
Well, I'm aware there's a lot of demand. So for sure, you'll see him at Q3. And we're looking at ways to introduce him to the investment community ahead of that. So we'll come back to you on that one. But we've heard the demand.
So maybe segue in terms of like your time at Nestlé. I'd be very interested to understand how the performance management of Nestlé has evolved over time on the KPIs. Maybe you can give some examples. Is there a common set of metrics now that everybody is aligned on and maybe what they are?
Yes. So as we focused on delivering organic growth, the focus is about running the business better. And what we've done is describe the KPIs that you need to run the group. And actually, if you look across all functions, it's about 50, that cover things from media efficiency across to on-time and full deliveries.
They are a common set of metrics and they are cascaded all the way down the group and most of them are now automated. And I say that because the shift is a move from management by PowerPoint, where you can pick and choose the metrics that you're using to describe performance to a described set of metrics that are informing all of our performance conversations, and we talk to those metrics, both at an Executive Board level monthly, but also then at a business level and then down to a country level.
So I think that is one dimension of the shift. I think the other dimension of the shift that we've been driving is a focus. So rather than focus on everything equally being really clear where those areas are that have been detracting from growth. So the 18 share lost in sales and very specifically performance managing them, but also identifying those areas that will really accelerate growth.
So those platforms like RTD coffee and pet therapeutics that will really accelerate growth and again, performance managing them. And this concept of focus and not managing to the law of averages is a really important one as we really raise that executional sharpness.
And at the CMD, you mentioned the underperformers. I think you said 18 underperformers, 21% of revenues. We don't know every single underperformer. We've got an idea what they are. Can you give us an idea -- an update, I guess, on since the CMD, how's progress looking on those underperformers? Because it's been quite material in terms of growth. I think it's been a 100 bp drag.
Yes, exactly. So good progress. So we have closed the share loss drag associated by those underperformers by more than 1/3 in the last 6 months. Some of them, actually 3 or 4 of them are now in what I would call sustained share gain and sustained is an important word because anybody can gain share in a given month. It's got to be on an MAT basis to meet the sustained test.
So we've got sort of 4 of them that are there, so things like Milo, which is a very important product in ASEAN; biscuits in Brazil. So good 3 or 4 of those. 80% are moving in the right direction. So you've got things like creamers and frozen food, all moving towards share gain.
And then there's a couple that are stubbornly not yet making progress. One of those would be Gerber, for example. But there -- we're taking the actions. It just takes a little while for those actions to flow through.
And you mentioned Gerber. Can we maybe touch on that? Because I'd be interested to understand the philosophy, where it's more difficult, like Gerber, it's been an issue for a long time. How do you actually reimagine Gerber? What are you actually doing to fix something that you've tried to fix before to give us confidence that this time you can actually...
So really, it's a good question. And it starts with metrics because metrics allow you to describe the problem clearly. So that clear description of -- do we actually have taste preference -- do we have product preference, so taste packaging, consumer need preference. Are we at the right price point versus the competitor set? Do we have distribution, share of shelf? And do we have our share of voice?
When you do that diagnosis, it's quite clear that we've lost some distribution. And we've been losing some distribution because we haven't been delivering against the value proposition. And then we've done more work to really describe what it takes to deliver on that value proposition and what our consumer really wants versus what we might think that they want.
So there, that soup to nuts work has been done and it's been heavily reviewed. The reason it takes a little while to work through is having identified the proposition shift, you then need to act on it. And acting on it means working it through with our customers because to get our distribution back, our customers need to believe in why they are going to give the shelf back to our proposition. And that's the process that we're working through at the moment.
I want to talk about the changing competition in the coffee landscape. If the KDP, JDP deal goes through, KDP share in coffee will go from 5% to 16%, right? So that will close the gap significantly against Nestlé as the global leader in coffee. That would be a seismic change in the coffee industry landscape. How can Nestlé adapt and go even faster when you've got 2 companies coming together to create a pure play?
Yes. So I mean, we are the leader in coffee and we've got phenomenal brands. I mean, Starbucks, Nescafé, Nespresso are super. And they are performing and they're gaining share. So we start from a good place. This -- we compete with both of the companies today effectively. So the fact that they are coming together to form a good competitor actually should be good for the category as a whole, strong competitors, strong category or both price. But you can be sure that in the [indiscernible] where there may be a bit of distraction, we will be absolutely out there making sure that we take every advantage of that opportunity.
And I guess related to that, I mean, what we're seeing in the industry at the moment is the creation of a lot of pure plays, whether it's [indiscernible] ice cream Magnum, we just talked about the new Keurig coffee company and other disruptors. It just seems like in a world where the consumer is so choppy and channel shift, the giant supertanker like Nestlé, how can a giant supertanker like Nestlé, keep up with these kind of speedboats of pure plays in different categories when they eat and sleep single categories? So what is the advantage still of that scale, I guess?
So what blew me away when I arrived at Nestlé is the route to market. The power we have in be it Portugal, Chile, as you go around Indonesia, as you go around the world, and I have been of the power of our categories playing together, we're in every aisle in the supermarket and that allows us to have a really different conversation with our customers and really have an amazing route to market and a deep, deep understanding of the consumer.
So I think there's a huge advantage there. And this is the end. What the pure players are good at, and we need to be equally good at is that execution focus. And so that's where you see us focusing, driving that by category execution focus, so we deliver just as well, and we have the power of our amazing route to market.
And where that would come together to give you an example would be, for example, in AOA, where we've got fabulous market presence, largely underpinned by dairy and nutrition. In countries where coffee is a fast-growing category, and pet care is, in many places, quite nascent, that route to market that we have is the really powerful, profitable cash-generating business with the real category focus on top to really drive those categories, that's where you see us competitively.
I guess that's a good segue into the question around data. How are you going to go about leveraging data and using your global IS/IT platform, Globe has been in place for 20 years now, right, or 25 years? Nestlé has got reams and reams of data, but maybe you're not using it optimally to drive consumer insights or better resource allocation and maybe the demand supply signals. How can you step change the use of data to actually work for you?
So this is a journey that we are well and truly on. And actually, I think Laurent has really accelerated in his time as CEO, and that momentum will continue. So we do have -- I mean, we are 1 of 3 companies in the world that has a single instance ERP across the group. So we have amazing data. I mean I can see pretty much anything anywhere, anytime and I look.
And we also have an enormous amount of -- we have 0.5 billion records of first-party consumer data as well as customer data. And we have the tools now, the digital tools that put that together to give us the insights to manage our business better and faster. So be it marketing return on investment tools, real-time promo tools as well as some of the supply chain planning and forecasting tools. The shift at Nestlé is moving from allowing markets to pick and choose what tools they take and develop their own if they fancy it to having -- taking that data, taking the tools that we've got developed and driving them down the organization because actually, we can go much faster at digitizing if we use our scale to go once. And that's exactly what we're doing.
That's super interesting. I want to get into a couple of the categories and a couple of the key cells. I mean the biggest single cell in Nestlé is U.S. pet food. I think it's about 12% of group revenues, if I'm not mistaken. What is the current category growth in the U.S. pet maybe if you have a number, cat versus dog? And how much capacity are you still to bring on? Yes, I'll leave it there, and I have 1 follow-up on it. But yes, just in terms of the market -- the category growth and capacity.
Yes. So let me talk around it a bit because I think context is important here. So firstly, what I would say is the fundamentals of the pet care category that underpin a sort of medium-term trajectory of mid-single-digit category growth are really strong. And they are increasing pet adoption, which we're seeing globally, an increasing desire to humanize pets and treat them as members of the families, less babies, more pets and that drives premiumization.
And then the third one in the emerging world is increasing [indiscernible] coverage. So the U.S. is at 90%, but Mexico is at 60%, India is at 20%, actually, Eastern Europe is sort of 70%-or-so. So that's the opportunity.
Now in the U.S., there is also great fundamentals in that we're seeing growth impact. Actually, we're seeing really good growth in -- good growth in cats. Dogs are flattish. But actually underneath that, families with multiple dogs are not replacing a third or a fourth dog when they pass away, but more families are coming into dog ownership, which from a category fundamental thing is a good thing.
And the desire to treat dogs as members or pets as members of the family absolutely is very present and stronger in the younger generation, and that's who we see coming into pet ownership. So the fundamentals are good. But the -- it's been a lumpy category for a number of reasons.
Firstly, in COVID, we saw significant pet adoption accelerated into the period. And that probably has meant that we've seen slightly slower pet growth since even though it's growing.
Secondly, because of that, we have seen capacity shortfalls. And because the category has been lifetime capacity, we haven't seen the innovation and innovation is what drives premiumization. That humanization of the pet that I want a new experience to give my pet, and its innovation that drives me to try.
So that has held the category back. And then thirdly, you've seen a period of extreme price inflation through '22 and '23. So we were taking about 25% pricing over that period. And then in 2024, you've seen all of this come together. So less price inflation. Through the year, we then saw the return of a more normal promotional environment.
By normal, I mean, less deep than prior to COVID, but we have promotion we didn't have in those previous 2 years. That was deflationary and coupled with the lack of innovation driving the premiumization. By the end of 2024, the category was flattish, which is felt quite subdued.
As we've moved into this year, and we're sort of coming through that promo period, and we've got a little bit more capacity and coming into the category, we've seen it in a 12-week window, probably the highest about 2.5% category growth. It's been a little bit slower in the last few weeks, but pets eat less in hot weather, these things come and go.
So that's the sort of shape of things. Where are we, though, on that capacity journey. We still do not have enough capacity in wet cat food. And the growth in the category, the acceleration that we're seeing is in cats, which is wonderful because pet cats are wonderfully picky eaters.
And somebody told me, a cat can go for nearly a week. If it doesn't -- if it isn't like the food, not eating, whereas a dog gets a matter of seconds. So cats are good. So we're seeing that nice growth in wet cat food, but we don't have the capacity that we need to meet it in the U.S. at the moment, and that is holding us back.
We get more capacity this quarter in Jefferson. And then we've got some more capacity coming at the end of the year, which will be really helpful in terms of reigniting growth and category growth as we then bring more innovation.
There's also a new chambers -- new segments like refrigerated is a segment. We've seen General Mills are now making a big push into that area. You talk about pet therapeutics as one of the big things at the CMD. Maybe you can sort of touch on those 2.
Yes. So those are both faster-growing segments. And of the 2, if I just to compare them a minute, the one that we are really focused on growing is therapeutics. What is therapeutics? It's specialty diets, often prescribed by a vet to help with Pet Nutrition and Health. And actually, you can do a lot with pet health with the appropriate diet.
And there, we have the R&D. It's very technical. The investment that we are making is to work with vets and veterinary schools around nutrition and educate them in this space and educate them in our products and how they solve problems. And it's an area where our share is 10% of the sector for the category, which is significantly lower than it should be given our share elsewhere and our capabilities.
And so the reason that we're very focused here is it's a high-margin, fast-growing area, and we have the R&D capability. So what do we need to do? It's the investment in the footfall to get to those vets. I am more excited about that as an investment because I am very clear on the returns than I am about fresh.
Now fresh is also growing, and you've got different types of fresh. You've got frozen, you've got chilled, you've got some ambient offerings. Now we know a lot about frozen and chilled and frozen and chilled route to market and the complexity and the margins in frozen and chilled route to market.
And it's a harder place to sustainably win profitably. And so what you see us doing there is making some smaller scale investments. So we've had a stake in just food for dogs for a couple of years now to really explore the space. We're also -- we have a number of innovations in this space that we are learning from. But we want to be really clear how that investment will scale before we put significant funds behind it.
I want to switch gears to China because it was a big topic in the second quarter. You're making quite a big change to the model in China. You're moving much more to kind of consumer pull from a distribution push. You also, as part of that, taking inventory out, you got new management in. So my question really is it's that -- how easy is it to actually make that pivot? Because it is quite a fundamental change?
And given the speed of change in China is dizzying so quick, you're trying to do that whilst the market is so dynamic. So just interested in the concept of how you go about doing that?
Yes. So it's an important change. And while 1 level, 3 to 4 weeks, too much stock is not a dramatic number. It's the difference between having control of your distribution network, and therefore, the pricing of your products through that network so that everybody is seeing your products as profitable and therefore, behind them and not. And the other thing is it gives you freshness. So that's why it's really important that we get it right.
Now in terms of driving consumer pull. This is about capability uplift in the market. Now there are areas where we're doing a really good job. So for example, NAN, which is the Nestlé Infant Nutrition brand as opposed to Illuma, which is the Legacy Wise One. It's doing really well. It's consistently gaining share because we've absolutely got that consumer offering right.
And that consumer offering is a special diets or special formulas for babies that have allergies or specific intolerances, and we have the R&D and we're delivering on that. And because we're delivering on the consumer need that we've got really nice growth.
We need the same quality of consumer-led growth on the Illuma side and sharing the capabilities there is one of the ways that we will raise our game on consumer pull on Illuma. Another area where it's working well, and we need to learn from is in out-of-home, where back to your speed piece, I think we've cracked the speed piece and it's working well.
We're working with a customer that knows the consumer well. So in out-of-home, we are a big provider of the dairy products that go into Luckin coffee. For those of you that have been to China, Luckin is the really big coffee chain growing really fast and has a dizzying pace at which new products are launched, new -- 2 new products each week, and they're fascinating products. I mean last time I was there, I had a cheese cappuccino and a prune one.
Sounds delicious.
Actually, they were, genuinely, genuinely they're absolutely delicious. But there, we've got the R&D pace and the product development working really well, and we are delivering on what is a weekly innovation, ideation, innovation cycle with Luckin. So we know how to do it. What we need to do is build that capability across the organization, and that's around uplift of capabilities.
And that's exactly why we brought a great leader in across from the Philippines, who's been doing it there very successfully to lead the Chinese business and support with the uplifted team.
Can I ask you about the pricing rig dynamic?
Yes.
I think you said that most of the pricing is done in chocolate. Is there still more to do in coffee? And are you seeing actually new pockets of food price inflation emerging again? Some countries are starting to see it pop up again as a topic.
Consumer price inflation.
Yes.
Yes. So the 2 categories where we are seeing consumer prices move, and that's because of the commodity cost is a coffee and cocoa. In terms of where we are on that, we have, as we've said, largely taken the price that we need to take this year on confectionery. There's a little bit more to go, but not much.
And on coffee -- and by the way, that was 10% pricing. And on coffee, where we've taken about 5%. We've taken the majority of price, but there's a little bit more in the second half.
And the elasticities that you're seeing?
Yes, where we expected them to be. So it's worth just saying on elasticities. There's 2 elements to elasticity. There's the absolute price point and whether you go over a price -- sort of psychological price point for the consumer, but there's also elasticity vis-a-vis the competitor set.
So elasticities can be a bit distorted if you take price, but your competitor doesn't. And so you have a period until they do that it distorts things. I say that because I think we have led on pricing in both coffee and confectionery. And so generally, we go first. Actually, I'm aware that there's been quite a significant number of announcements around price increases more broadly by other players in confectionery in H2, which we won't be taking.
But largely, so confectionery, we're seeing what we expected to see. It's a little bit more price elastic than coffee. That's to be expected, but playing through. It's a bit more elastic in LatAm than it is in Europe, but where we thought it would be.
Coffee, performing well. Actually, we've been slightly positively surprised with the price elasticity on coffee. Coffee is a deep, deep habit, and I say that smiling knowing that it takes an awful lot for me to shift by coffee behavior.
And I think that is true for many people. We're seeing some sort of interesting things. So obviously, pricing has come up more on roast and ground just because there's more green coffee in it. And that's moved people a little bit into soluble, which is good. Pricing is less elastic on soluble and even less so on portion where that the pricing impacts also have been...
What about Nespresso because that's obviously a different cycle in terms of people don't buy it as often. Is there any kind of concern about some maybe delayed elasticity?
It's a good question. I mean people don't buy it as often. And while we see no evidence of that yet, we continue to watch it closely. But actually, Nespresso has been very -- we've taken our price increase as well and that's partly because we're investing behind our brands at the same time.
Historically, in Nestlé, for the last few years, when we've taken significant price increases, at the same time, we've been reducing marketing spend. I think the difference this year is we're increasing marketing spend where we are taking pricing, and I think that's helping us.
And on the 6 big bets on the innovation, obviously, it's quite a big change in terms of focusing bigger, bolder innovations. I think you want to build CHF 100 million platforms over multiyear. Can you give us maybe an update on how those big bets are doing? Any of them that you'd call out, any of that you're scaling more quickly? That would be really helpful.
Yes. So we've got 6, we said they'll reach CHF 100 million. We've already collectively got CHF 200 million in the first half, and we've got good momentum. I would say all of them are on track. We've got kind of 3 that are a little bit ahead, some more than others, 3 that are there or thereabouts, but usually, it's because we've been a little bit slower to execute because we wanted to get the proposition right rather than any kind of consumer response.
Where have we got really good performance? Fancy Feast, the pyramid cat food. And so this is one where it's all about scaling up manufacturing and actually, at the moment, we can sell more than we can make.
The Sinergity is the infant nutrition brand with 6 HMOs and probiotics, which together really build gut health for the infant and very discernible health benefits, is doing very well. And that sort of innovation, these are the ones -- the thinking behind big bets, which goes broader than these 6 actually, it's about really making sure that where we have a winning proposition that should work everywhere, we roll it out with pace.
Because as I've looked backwards on what's been the single biggest reason we've underperformed our innovation business cases, it's because we haven't launched the brand in the countries that we expected to launch in when we wrote it because when we got there, the parties have moved on. When you've got a winning proposition that is going to work in all countries, we should roll it out.
And that's what you see us doing, both around the ones we call big bets, but there are also the same level of focus and clarity at the zone level. So for example, KitKat Tablets in Europe, is going Europe-wide. So that sort of clarity is what we're driving clarity and focus.
Slightly surprised you didn't mention ice coffee as one of the big bets. I mean in terms of the rolling out quicker. I mean, it's a great product. And if you can -- can you maybe double-click on that? Where are we that liquid roast? And how many markets is it in? Is it doing what you want it to do? Can you go quicker?
Yes. No, no, it's doing what we want it to do, and it's a great product. It's interesting, if you just compare it with Sinergity and Fancy Feast for a minute, the consumer behavioral change is bigger because Fancy Feast you already feed your cat -- wet cat food, this is a different, more interesting better one, which the cat loves.
Same with infant formula. How to consume infant formula is completely described, it is a better one. Nescafé Espresso concentrate is a bit of a new concept. And so it takes a little bit longer to communicate to consumers what it is and how to consume it. So it will naturally be a slightly slower build, but it's building really nicely, and we've rolled it out.
I don't know exactly how many countries because it's changing by the day, but we're exactly where we want to be.
I'll ask a final one just on margins. I think -- I mean, you outperformed in the first half, 16.5%. I think you said the second half will be 100 basis points lower than the first half. So 15.5%. You still reiterated your full year margin guidance importantly. Can you maybe walk us through a little bit of that step down from H1 to H2? How much of that is tariffs? How much is, if you can, but give us buckets -- how much is just higher COGS and currency, that would be helpful?
Sure. So -- and again, maybe just to step back a bit, our margin guidance for the year was to be at or above 16%. And we gave that margin guidance before we've seen significant increase in commodity costs before tariffs happened, and before the U.S. dollar weakened. And I say that because a lot has changed. We're holding our guidance, and we're holding our guidance because we're doing 3 things.
We're driving efficiencies hard in the business. We have been a bit quicker to take pricing, and we worked very hard to mitigate the tariff impact through changing footprint, supply footprint, ingredients, but also making sure that we moved product into the U.S. ahead of tariffs. That has all benefited the first half.
Now as I look forward to the second half, actually, the big shift between the 2 is, yes, we have some bigger tariff impact. But the large shift really is the fact that the commodity cost because of the timing of our hedging are very much weighted to the second half. So we'll see that flow through to the second half.
But as I look forward to 2026, we've got cost savings, which will continue to come. You'll see us continue to act to improve our gross margin through innovation and pricing. You'll see us -- you'll also see that depending on how commodity prices play out, we should be in a slightly better commodity environment given how coffee and cocoa are moving and all of that will be allowing us to see a margin improvement.
I think we're in the buzzer, Anna, sadly. So I think we're going to have to cut it there. Thank you for your time. I'm going to figure out from, David, whether there's a breakout or not. Okay. No breakout. So thank you, Anna, for your time. Always appreciated your support at the conference. Thank you.
Thank you.
Financial data from Nestlé
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Free
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 88,371 88,371 |
2%
2%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 48,203 48,203 |
1%
1%
55%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 40,168 40,168 |
4%
4%
45%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 24,789 24,789 |
3%
3%
28%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | 1,600 1,600 |
1%
1%
2%
|
|
| EBITDA | 17,421 17,421 |
6%
6%
20%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 3,600 3,600 |
0%
0%
4%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 13,821 13,821 |
8%
8%
16%
|
|
| Net Profit | 7,440 7,440 |
28%
28%
8%
|
|
In millions CHF.
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Nestlé Stock News
Company Profile
Nestlé SA is a nutrition, health and wellness company, which engages in the manufacture, supply and production of prepared dishes and cooking aids, milk-based products, pharmaceuticals and ophthalmic goods, baby foods and cereals. The company products portfolio includes powdered and liquid beverages, water, milk products and ice cream, nutrition and health science, prepared dishes and cooking aids, confectionery, and pet care. It operates through the following segments: Zone EMENA, Zone Americas, Zone Asia, Oceania & Africa, Nestlé Waters, Nestlé Nutrition, and Other Businesses. The Other Business segment is comprised of Nespresso, Nestle Health Science and Nestle Skin Health. The company was founded by Henri Nestlé in 1866 and is headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland.
StocksGuide Free
| Head office | Switzerland |
| CEO | Mr. Ejel |
| Employees | 271,000 |
| Founded | 1866 |
| Website | www.nestle.com |


