Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = $130.64b | Revenue (TTM) = $12.59b
Market Cap = $130.64b | Estimated Revenue = $13.49b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = $122.79b | Revenue (TTM) = $12.59b
Enterprise Value = $122.79b | Forward Revenue = $13.49b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
36 Analysts have issued a Vertex Pharmaceuticals forecast:
Analyst Opinions
36 Analysts have issued a Vertex Pharmaceuticals forecast:
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Events
Past Events
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SEP
14
Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
5 days ago
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SEP
10
12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
8 days ago
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SEP
9
Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
9 days ago
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AUG
3
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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JUL
6
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
2 months ago
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JUN
10
Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
3 months ago
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MAY
29
Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
4 months ago
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MAY
19
RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
4 months ago
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MAY
4
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
5 months ago
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MAR
11
Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
6 months ago
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MAR
10
Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
6 months ago
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MAR
3
TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
7 months ago
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FEB
12
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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JAN
12
44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
8 months ago
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DEC
3
Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
10 months ago
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NOV
11
UBS Global Healthcare Conference 2025
10 months ago
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NOV
8
Special Call - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
10 months ago
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NOV
3
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
11 months ago
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SEP
23
Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2025
12 months ago
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SEP
9
Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
about one year ago
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SEP
3
Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
about one year ago
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StocksGuide Free
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Good morning, everybody. I'm Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley's U.S. biopharma analyst. Pleased to be kicking off our 24th Annual Healthcare Conference here in New York City. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. I'm very pleased to be kicking off the conference this morning with Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Joining me is Reshma Kewalramani, who is the company's CEO and President. Thank you so much, Reshma. It's great to see you this morning, bright and early.
Good morning, Terence.
So maybe I'll turn it over to you to just give us an update on the company's diversification journey. I know that's been a big focus of yours as the CEO here. There's been a lot of movement on the company's pipeline and also the Crinetics acquisition recently. And so maybe just give us a mark-to-market on kind of where you stand on that journey.
You bet. Well, good morning all and for you, brave souls, who've made it here at 7:00 a.m. It's very nice to see you. We have been on a journey, it's more than 10 years now, to diversify our company and continue to grow. I do want to make sure that we talk about CF for 1 minute. CF has been and remains important to us, and we see more growth in CF as we now launch ALYFTREK around the world and get down to lower age groups. We also have our last 5% of patients for which we don't yet have a therapy. And so that foundational pillar of CF continues to go strong.
Outside of CF, over the last 3 years, we've been bringing CASGEVY to more people around the globe. And you know CASGEVY has a very significant patient journey. And now we're at a point where we can see patients who are initiating, who have first cell collections and have infusions. And so we can see the -- we have line of sight into the growth, and it looks very good. And I continue to believe CASGEVY is going to grow into a multibillion-dollar asset.
Over the last year or so, we've been launching JOURNAVX in acute pain. This is the first non-opioid in more than 2 decades, and I really like what I see in the growth there. And then we were talking about the fourth pillar, which was going to be renal medicine. And it is, but I think it's actually going to just switch places with where endocrine and Crinetics, which is our fourth pillar now with PALSONIFY, which is an approved medicine in the U.S. It's approved in Europe, launched in the U.S. This is a medicine for acromegaly.
And then, of course, there is the renal pillar. The PDUFA date for our first renal medicine, pove in IgAN is November 30, and I'm sure we'll get into a little bit more there. And there's much more beyond that. In total, there's something like 6 programs in Phase III, more than that in Phase II, and I like what's coming out of the bench into the clinic as well. So lots going on inside and outside of CF.
Great. Well, no, that's a perfect framing. So I guess the area I want to dig into first is just your kidney franchise. Obviously, that's been a big focus of investors. You mentioned the pove PDUFA date coming up here. Maybe just level set us on differentiation. I think that's a question we get a lot from investors is there's 2 competitors that have launched into the market already. So as you come from a third-to-market position, how do you think about differentiation of pove?
Yes. So when you think about IgA nephropathy, just to level set, you're looking at something like 300,000 patients between the U.S. and Europe, let's say, 150,000 inside the U.S. and then add another 1 million or so in Asia, where we're going with Zai in China and associated countries and with Ono in Japan and a few other countries. So it's one of these rare diseases that is a common rare disease.
In terms of coming to market, it turns out that this is an interesting area where there are 3 medicines that are all launching, let's call it, within a year or so of each other in the category of APRIL or APRIL/BAFF. In my mind, as I think about IgA nephropathy, and I happen to be a nephrologist, this is a disease that is very well understood in terms of its etiology. It is a B-cell-mediated disease. It is a disease that results from autoantibody production. And when you think about it that way, it makes most sense to have a medicine that works on both APRIL and BAFF because those are the 2 cytokines that are most responsible for B-cell development maturation, and it wouldn't make sense to me to work on only APRIL or only BAFF, unless you saw some concern in the safety profile.
We now have the profile. We have -- we put out a fairly extensive press release. The safety profile looks really good. And the efficacy, and this is numerical and it's cross-trial comparisons, you got to take this with a grain of salt. But when I look at the numerical response, pove has the best numerical response in terms of proteinuria, hematuria, Gd-IgA1 levels, and that's important.
But maybe the most important thing, which could be surprising to you, is the fact that it's also the most patient-friendly dosing. This is a biologic. A patient will be taking this for the rest of their life and their ability to take a small volume, pove is 0.46 mLs in an auto-injector once monthly, is a very favorable presentation. And I think that's actually going to be one of the greatest differentiators.
I also think our ability to support patients through their journey is going to be important. We've learned a ton doing the same in cystic fibrosis. I think that's going to be important. And the last thing I'll call out is we have built the largest sales force, and that is to serve patients where they are. There are certainly centers of excellence and large clinics, but there's also a smaller number of patients in the community setting, and we want to be able to serve all patients.
Great. Maybe just 1 follow-up there is that GFR kidney function is the other endpoint that you guys are studying. The trial is going on for 2 years to look at that. So as you think about positioning the kidney function data, how do you think about the importance of that in either a label or at some point down the road, given one of your competitors who already have some of that data?
Yes. So this one has been a rapidly evolving field. 10 years ago, 15 years ago, the FDA wasn't yet comfortable with proteinuria as an accelerated endpoint. And the community, the renal community has been working with the FDA, with academic centers, with industry to get proteinuria to be it. We are now at a point where proteinuria is routinely accepted in IgAN as an accelerated approval endpoint.
And your point, Terence, is around, all right, where are we with GFR? On GFR, the agency has been hinting and in the spring renal meetings, they all said they're going to get comfortable with 1-year GFR as the endpoint as opposed to 2-year GFR, which is where it was at prior to those meetings with the FDA.
Where we are is that we want to launch pove around the globe. That is our ambition. That is what we are going to do. For that to happen, we have to meet the global regulators where they are and global regulators, so think MHRA for the U.K., the EMA for EU and the Asian regulators, not to mention Australia, are not yet at the point where proteinuria is acceptable. They are at the point where 2-year GFR is okay. And so we're methodically making our way around to understand where they are with 1-year GFR, but we won't cut our data set early because our ambition and our goal is to have pove go around the globe. It is true that the FDA has become increasingly comfortable and they've all but said 1-year GFR would be acceptable to them.
Great. So it seems like you're unlikely going to get that 1-year GFR on because you want to keep -- preserve the integrity of the data set for that.
That's exactly right. That's exactly right. If you cut the data early, as you remember, the FDA had instructed all 3 companies in the APRIL, APRIL/BAFF space to not share the GFR because it was ongoing. And so once you cut the GFR and share it, that would be the concern for -- if the U.S. is okay with it, that would be the concern for the global regulators.
Okay. Maybe just 1 on the commercial side. You mentioned you're going to have one of the largest renal sales forces out there. What have been some of your early conversations with payers? Obviously, we've seen a couple of quarters from Otsuka now in terms of the uptake of their IgAN drug, but how are your preliminary conversations with kind of payers going and anything to update us on there?
Yes. On the payer side, they are familiar with the disease. They are familiar with proteinuria, the accelerated approval, the correlation to GFR and such. And they're very familiar with the outcomes of patients with IgA nephropathy. Unfortunately, that is progression to dialysis, transplantation or death. And the value of slowing that progression is well understood to them.
So we've been in conversations, the ones that we are allowed to have legally and appropriately since about last summer. We've targeted and discussed pove with more than 70% of payers and the conversations have been productive and positive. I expect that we will be able to secure reimbursement. I expect that it will be the kind of reimbursement that would be appropriate and commensurate with what you've already seen in the field. But this one seems like the payers are familiar and they are understanding of the value of medicines that prevent death, dialysis or transplantation.
Okay. Great. I think the other thing as we think through differentiation is breadth of program or breadth of indication set on a label. I think back to some of the historical examples here where that is oftentimes pretty important as you think about formulary position. So maybe just give us an update on kind of where we stand with the pove program in terms of breadth of opportunity and the next set of data that we should focus on here.
Yes. I think the Alpine team did a really nice job in studying pove in multiple potential indications by way of these Phase II basket studies that they conducted for us. After pove in IgAN, that's the November 30 PDUFA date, I expect the next Phase III readout to be in membranous nephropathy. I think that has an advantage to our first discussion point around differentiation. I think nephrologists are going to find it helpful and easier for their clinical practice to pick a single B-cell modulating drug across the various glomerular diseases that they're dealing with. And so having pove in IgAN and pove in membranous, I think, will be valuable.
I do think membranous will be next, and I think the one after that is going to be in myasthenia gravis. The myasthenia program is in Phase II. The membranous nephropathy program is in Phase III. And to close out on membranous, the DSMB has met and they have picked 80 milligrams, which is the same dose that we had studied in Phase II in the RUBY-3 trial in the event you want to look at those data as the Phase III dose.
Great. And then as we think about read-through, I guess, from IgAN to these 2 other indications, either one of those that you put a higher probability than the other? Are they both about the same given B-cell biology? How do you think about read-through from IgAN to those 2?
Yes. I think it's reasonable to look at the Phase II RUBY-3 trial for membranous to get a sense of where that's going. It's the same dose. It's 80 milligrams. So you know the safety because we just announced the results of the interim analysis accelerated approval cohort for IgAN. And there are lots of similarities between IgAN and membranous. As Gd-IgA1 is to IgAN, PLA2R is to membranous, and you can see what that reduction was. So I think that's a very -- it's a reasonably easy analogy to make.
I am very excited about the myasthenia opportunity because there is a wild-type TACI that already completed a study, a Phase II study in a China-only population. So you got to think about that. But when you look at the timeline and if you plot, for example, time on the X-axis and the ADL, the activities of daily living on the Y-axis, the wild-type TACI in that China-only cohort had really nice results. Of course, pove is an engineered TACI. It has better binding affinity, higher potency, better tissue distribution.
So I am very excited about this. This is a patient population that has a disease that is one of the most B-cell-mediated diseases, if I can call it that way. And while there are medicines that are available that have been real game changers, unfortunately, they have to be cycled on and cycled off, but the disease doesn't cycle. And pove would be a medicine that could be taken consistently over the period of the patient's life, and I think that could bring a real benefit.
Okay. Great. Maybe we'll move over to inaxaplin, which is another one of your pipeline assets. This is for APOL1-mediated kidney disease. And so first, maybe just, again, give us a little bit of background on the disease and the need there. And then as we think about the upcoming data from AMPLIFY, I'd like to dig into that a little bit because I think that's expected in the fall here, and this is from a Phase II study.
Absolutely. So staying with the renal franchise, this is about inaxaplin in a disease called AMKD, APOL1-mediated kidney disease. The disease itself is fairly new. It was just described in about 2010 or so. And basically, it's a disease that occurs only in people of recent sub-Saharan African descent. It is a very rapidly progressive disease. And fundamentally, what you see is if you have 2 APOL1 alleles versus if you don't, your risk of progression is something like 5x, 6x. It's extremely high compared to those who do not have APOL1.
There are about 150,000, let's say, 100,000 to 150,000 people with AMKD in the United States. It's largely a disease in the Western world that is in the U.S. And these patients have no medicines that have been specifically approved for their condition. We have a program that is going to read out. It's called AMPLITUDE early next year. It's in Phase III development. We have an agreement with the FDA for potential approval, and the accelerated approval is based on 1-year GFR. The FDA is not yet comfortable in AMKD, unlike in IgAN, for proteinuria to be the accelerated approval endpoint. That study finished its enrollment in the IA cohort last year. We are on track to finish the full cohort enrollment in 2H of this year, and we're fully on track for the Phase III interim analysis readout early next.
That's AMPLITUDE. But as Terence said, there is another study, AMPLIFY, and we do have to talk to the teams about not naming them so similarly. AMPLIFY is a IIb study. That one will read out this year and in the fall is about right. We are on track for that readout this fall. That one, I would think of as an expanded population as an indication expansion from AMPLITUDE. So AMPLIFY has 2 cohorts in that Phase II study. Cohort 1 is modest proteinuria. So up to 0.3 to 0.7 grams of proteinuria whereas AMPLITUDE is more than 0.7 grams. And Cohort 2 in AMPLIFY is patients who have AMKD. So they have 2 APOL1 alleles, but they have a second disease. And that second kidney disease is type 2 diabetes.
The reason I consider them expansion cohorts is obviously, when you have lower proteinuria, this modest proteinuria cohort, the dynamic range is smaller. And when you have 2 kidney diseases, it's not clear what kidney disease is causing your proteinuria. Is it 50-50 type 2 diabetes and AMKD? Is it disproportionately AMKD, disproportionately type 2 diabetes? And of course, our medicine, inaxaplin, only takes care of the AMKD portion. And so that's why that's an indication expansion, a potential indication expansion. Those results could expand the 150,000 people in the U.S. that maybe add another 100,000 or so. So that's what the AMPLIFY study looks like.
Great. Maybe we'll just focus on the modest proteinuria cohort. What would you view as kind of a good result there? And what are the implications then for the AMPLITUDE study as we think about that Phase III if we see the data from Cohort 1, recognizing Cohort 2 is type 2 diabetics. So again, a bit more of a wildcard, but in Cohort 1, how do you think about what the bar is for success there?
I hesitate to offer a bar. I think what I said when we were doing the Phase II for AMPLITUDE is double-digit proteinuria improvements would be beneficial. Some took that to mean 10.1%, others took it to mean 99.9% improvement. I would say anything in the 20%, 30% range would be a positive. Again, remember, in modest proteinuria, your dynamic range is just smaller. But I think if you have double-digit improvement in that line, I think that would be a positive. If I'm remembering correctly, the lowest level of proteinuria that later turned out to have value when the sponsor did the time to ESRD, dialysis or death trial was something like 14%, 15%. So I think numbers like that tell you that those are values of proteinuria improvement where when you go on to do the hard outcomes trials, you show benefit.
Great. And just remind us what would be needed for an indication expansion here? Would you need a separate Phase III program for both of these? Or could you somehow use this Phase II data in support, assuming AMPLITUDE was positive and supported the primary approval? Like how does the regulatory path work, I guess, for these indications?
It's really an excellent question, Terence. And the real answer is I don't know as we sit here today. We haven't had our end-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA because we're not at the point of having the Phase II data. What I would say is we -- the way to think about this is secure the results from the AMPLIFY study, if positive, have discussions with regulators around what the next steps are. And I strongly suspect that what you say is about right that they'd want to see what AMPLITUDE says because AMPLITUDE would be the study that has a proteinuria improvement and the GFR endpoint. And then what additional work the agency might want to see in the lower proteinuria group or the diabetic cohort group would come after that. But I wouldn't expect this to be the kind of a situation. And you know Vertex moves very fast where after we have the AMPLIFY data, we'd be moving on to more clinical trials. It's the kind of situation where we need to have conversations with the regulators.
Okay. Great. Before we move to 1 commercial question I had is just on the AMPLITUDE Phase III trial, you mentioned 1-year GFR. I know in IgAN, there was a lot of debate about kind of slope of decline. And fortunately, with the data we've seen so far from some of the drugs is stability of GFR. In this disease, you mentioned very rapid progression, unfortunately. So how do we think about what kind of delta, what we want to see on a GFR endpoint from AMPLITUDE?
Yes. So you'll remember that the AMKD patient population, even in comparison to how we used to think about IgAN, although I think our own views are evolving, IgAN, it turns out is not a slowly smoldering disease. As you can see from the results that have been revealed, 1-year GFR declines quite rapidly. AMKD is known to be a rapidly declining renal condition, which is why the agency was comfortable with 1-year GFR and why we were able to power the study to that end. I won't share with you what our power calculations are, but based on the rapidity of decline in AMKD, we have confidence that we powered the study correctly and that we'll be able to show a difference at the 1-year point.
Okay.
It's actually interesting that you can show that difference now with IgAN at the 1-year point.
For sure. All right. So we'll stay tuned for that data next year. The commercial opportunity, kind of similar question to pove. Walk us through kind of how you're thinking about the build-out here, the rollout, less competition here, so you guys are in a first-to-market position. But I know there's some work on the diagnosis front that you and the team have been doing.
Yes. So this one is exceptionally high unmet need. There is no targeted therapy in this area. And as we already discussed, the progression of kidney disease is unfortunately very fast. So here, the thing to think about is diagnosis. AMKD is a disease that was just described in 2010, and genetic testing is not commonplace. So when we started the Phase III trial, we started to do genetic testing as part of the trial infrastructure so that patients who are diagnosed with AMKD, if they qualify, could go into the clinical trial.
Separately, we also started up testing, genetic testing in the real world, offering free testing as appropriate with groups like Natera. So they have genetic testing for genetic kidney disease. If you're a nephrologist and you have a patient that you suspect could have AMKD, you could avail yourself of free testing. Through those programs, which have been going on for quite a few years now, 3, 4 years now, we've already identified a number of patients. And so if and when a drug is approved, we would have a bit of a head start in patient identification.
But that's going to be the primary focus of our sales team if and when the drug is approved, to make sure that physicians are aware and the education has already started that genetic testing is happening. I will tell you as an aside, as we talk to nephrologists, which we're doing now largely for IgAN, it's interesting enough that AMKD has really captured the hearts and minds of nephrologists because they see it as the first precision medicine opportunity in nephrology. And so we have the advantage of being able to do education on both these dimensions, IgAN and AMKD.
Okay. Great. Maybe just 2 follow-ups. The first, I know you're not going to guide on pricing because it's too early. But just obviously, maybe talk to us about some of the puts and takes high level, this disease versus IgAN. It sounds like there are similar prevalence numbers, again, similar rapidity of kidney decline, but anything else that we should think about potential price points? And the second is leveraging your existing infrastructure. You mentioned you're building out already with one of the largest renal sales force. Can you use that for inaxaplin? Or is there an incremental build that you need to...
So the overlap between the physicians treating inaxaplin or who could use inaxaplin for AMKD and who might use pove for IgAN is about 70%. So there's a hefty overlap, but it's not 100% overlapping circles. The reason we decided to build the largest team for IgA nephropathy versus the other APRIL or APRIL/BAFF is this desire to get to all patients, whether they're in centers of excellence, large practices or the smaller ones. And then we have the advantage of being able to then bring out inaxaplin. But we also have programs after that. We talked about membranous and there's an ADPKD, that's autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease after that one. So we have an expectation to be in renal medicine for a long time across a number of diseases. But first things first, and it is indeed pove in IgAN that we think we're going to be there first.
On pricing for inaxaplin, I think that the right way to think about it is these medicines, if they're approved, whether it's pove or inaxaplin, they will come with data on GFR and proteinuria that speak to its potential in time to death, dialysis and transplantation. That's all the same. So I think the price points that you're seeing now are fair enough. I think when you do the health economics, whether you do it formally or for something like a NICE or an NHS or you do it in a less formal way for other payers, the health economics are very supportive. So I think it's a reasonable proxy with what you're seeing in the current wave of medicines.
Okay. Great. You mentioned in the beginning how important the cystic fibrosis franchise has been, but also will be on the forward. You're, again, rolling out the Gen -- I forget 3.0, 4.0 at this point with ALYFTREK. It's been so many years now. And obviously, it's been great to see all the progress. Maybe just high level, talk about some of the puts and takes as we think about that franchise in 2027. Obviously, you mentioned you're still going to some of the lowest age groups now. You have the ALYFTREK conversion going on. I'm not sure if there's any other geographies left, but anything we should think about for '27?
Yes. So maybe 3 things as you think about the near term, so let's call it, the next few years. For the here and now, it is about getting ALYFTREK around the globe. It is regulatorily approved in almost all regions. In some regions, we're working on pricing and access. Where we have regulatory approval and access, it is about getting people who would prefer to be on ALYFTREK. It's the best medicine we think we've made to date. So people who are on TRIKAFTA, they want to be on a once-daily medicine or they just want to be on the best medicine that we think we've made. That is the switch that's happening.
There are also naive patients. So for example, in certain countries like Italy, there's a lot of these ultra-rare mutations for which ALYFTREK has an approval. And so there are some of these very rare mutations that are coming on to ALY. So think about the ALY launch around the globe. Then think about ALY in the original ALY application, it was 6 years and above. We're working on 2 to 5, and then we're going down the age groups. So that's the next thing that you can anticipate. The last thing is emerging countries, think Brazil, think Turkey. There are some countries that we're still getting to in terms of reimbursement, smaller countries, but important nonetheless. And that would be what we are thinking about in the near term with the commercialized medicines in CF.
Those medicines, ALY is part of what we call NG 2.0, NextGen 2.0. The next one after that is NextGen 3.0. There are 3 medicines in that one, I should call them potential medicines, VX-828, which is the lead, VX-581 and VX-272. And then after that, there's a NextGen 4.0, and you can believe that there will be a 5.0 and beyond. Until we can demonstrate to ourselves that we have reached the peak of the best sweat chloride that we can achieve, we're going to keep going.
We've talked about the fact that we believe we've already achieved that asymptote for ppFEV1, the lung measurement. And we're getting awful close to sweat chloride. We have submitted some abstracts to the fall North American CF meeting. And fundamentally, when you diagram out the Gaussian distribution of sweat chloride in carriers or normals, you'll see that it's the center point, the median is about 30 millimole and then there's a normal distribution around that. And when you look at people treated with ALYFTREK, for example, it closely approximates that Gaussian distribution, telling us that we're getting close. But as long as we haven't proven that to ourselves, we're going to keep going, and that's what NG 3.0 and 4.0 is about.
Great. One follow-up, just you mentioned the global rollout of ALYFTREK. I know historically, every year, there's pricing declines in a lot of these geographies. Given the profile of ALYFTREK, does that allow you to at least keep price more stable than maybe otherwise you would if you just had TRIKAFTA? Or should we expect kind of the same progression as you typically see, which is pricing declines year-over-year?
ALYFTREK and actually TRIKAFTA before it in the ex-U.S. regions, you know that you have to go for a rebid every 3 years, 4 years as the contracts call for. What they look at is real-world data and the real-world data that they're looking at is the decline of lung function. And TRIKAFTA and now ALY are one of the few medicines that I've ever worked on that actually look better in the real world than they even did in the clinical trial because you see this flattening of the decline of lung function, everybody's lung function, just like kidney function declines, it's about maintaining it at the most stable levels that you can.
And we have been able to hold price steady in some countries based on that kind of real-life data. But I wouldn't want to leave you with the impression that that's doable in all countries across the globe. There are some countries by just simply the way the country operates, there are expectations of price declines. But where there is an opportunity to present data and decisions are made on that data, we have been able to hold price stable because the data are even better in the real world.
Great. Maybe just in the last couple of minutes, anything else on the pipeline that you want to highlight for us? I know you guys have also a deep early-stage pipeline. You mentioned some of the Gen 3.0 cystic fibrosis assets with ADPKD, but anything else that should be on our radar in the next 6 months?
All right. I will -- I'll call out a few, but don't tell anyone that I called those out and left some of the others behind. Maybe in the Phase III pipeline, the thing to call out is the type 1 diabetes program. There are -- there is Zimislecel program that's a cell therapy that could be a one-and-done curative therapy. And I am super excited about that one. But I'm even more jazzed about the type O program that I think I mentioned on the earnings call because that opens up the opportunity to even more patients than the type A program. The IND is cleared, and I'm excited about dosing patients in that Phase I/II study.
Also in Phase III is atumelnant. That is an asset that we -- that came to us by way of the Crinetics acquisition. Atumelnant is a medicine that I see having multibillion-dollar potential and the opportunity to serve 20,000 patients, some number between 15,000 and 20,000 in the U.S., add another 15,000 ex-U.S. for CAH, congenital adrenal hyperplasia as well as a second disease called Cushing's disease. And atumelnant is in Phase III development for CAH, Phase I/II development for Cushing's.
And if I pick something from the very earlier stage pipeline, and this is not in the next 6 months, but I really like the progress that we're making in the NaV1.7 space. As you know, I have a lot of enthusiasm for this opportunity of making a combination NaV1.7/1.8. That one is in late preclinical development. So we have chemical matter, and now it's a matter of going through the standard procedures to bring that potential medicine into the clinic.
Great. Well, I think we're up against time. But thank you so much, Reshma. Really great to see you.
Very nice to see you, Terence, and thank you all.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Morgan Stanley 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
Vertex framed a clear diversification story: cystic fibrosis remains core while renal, immunology, cell therapy, and new acquisitions drive near-term catalysts.
🎯 Key Message
- Message: Vertex is shifting from a single‑franchise company to a multi‑pillar biopharma: cystic fibrosis (CF) stays core, while renal (pove, inaxaplin), gene/cell therapies (CASGEVY, Zimislecel), endocrine (atumelnant via Crinetics) and pain (JOURNAVX) form growth engines with pivotal readouts and launches ahead.
🚀 Strategic Highlights
- Pove (IgAN): Dual APRIL/BAFF biology aim for broader B‑cell blockade; small 0.46 mL monthly auto‑injector is a patient‑friendly commercial differentiator.
- Inaxaplin (AMKD): Targets APOL1‑mediated kidney disease (largely patients of recent sub‑Saharan descent); AMPLIFY Phase II readout expected in fall, AMPLITUDE Phase III uses 1‑year GFR for potential accelerated approval.
- CF & pipeline: ALYFTREK global rollout and age‑group expansions continue; NextGen programs (3.0/4.0) plus cell and NaV programs extend long‑term upside.
🆕 New Information
- Update: Specific near‑term timelines reiterated — pove PDUFA Nov 30; AMPLIFY (inaxaplin) readout this fall; AMPLITUDE interim/Phase III readout early next year; continued rollout of CASGEVY and ALYFTREK; active payer engagement and free genetic testing programs to boost AMKD diagnosis.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Differentiation: Management argued pove’s combined APRIL/BAFF approach plus superior numerical proteinuria/hematuria reductions and very small auto‑injector could drive uptake versus two earlier entrants.
- GFR endpoint: FDA appears comfortable with 1‑year GFR; Vertex will preserve global data integrity (many regulators still expect 2‑year GFR), so they won’t cut datasets prematurely.
- Commercial/payers: >70% of payers engaged for pove; Vertex plans a large renal salesforce and expects reimbursement broadly consistent with current market precedents, while using genetic testing programs to aid inaxaplin uptake.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Takeaway: This conference presentation reinforces that Vertex is executing a multi‑franchise strategy with several near‑term binary catalysts (pove PDUFA Nov 30; inaxaplin AMPLIFY fall; AMPLITUDE early next year) that could materially de‑risk CF concentration. Key risks remain regulatory acceptance across regions (GFR vs proteinuria), pricing/reimbursement dynamics, and clinical read‑throughs across indications.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Okay. Good afternoon, and welcome to the second day of the Cantor Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Carter Gould. I cover large-cap biopharma here at Cantor. I am pleased to welcome Vertex to the stage. Joining us from the company, Susie Lisa and Manisha Pai from the IR squad. Plenty of momentum in the past 12 to 16 months cystic fibrosis leadership has been sort of reaffirmed most recently and tangible progress on the povetacicept front.
From our perspective, the CF and Pove story has been pretty easy to tell, but there's lots going on -- if I like to say, there's lots going on with Pove beyond IgAN. There's lots going on in renal beyond Pove, and there's lots going on in CF beyond renal.
So looking forward to a discussion. I hope we can touch on a whole number of those topics. And I guess maybe to just kick things off, Susie, maybe you had a very high-profile acquisition announced most recently. I think the timing of that raised a lot of questions and would love to kind of just hear why is the right time for you guys to make such a notable high-profile acquisition and really add some diversification efforts.
Great. Thanks, Carter. I appreciate you having us and a great question to start with. And I think as many people know, the Vertex story from an investor standpoint, is more difficult to tell because there isn't a clear therapeutic category, right, or a platform.
Instead, we adhere strictly, very strictly to our R&D strategy, which has the set criteria. And a few of those criteria include things like understanding the human causal biology. Are there validated biomarkers? Is it a specialty market? Are there streamlined pathways in terms of regulatory and clinical development? And we apply those criteria so strictly to any disease area we pursue internally as well as any acquisition we consider externally.
Now something fits in what we call the sandbox disease areas, and it can help accelerate one of our existing programs. We go after it like Entrada and DM1 is a good recent example or if we don't have a presence in a disease area that we've identified and we see an asset that can launch our presence into that space with a differentiated product like an Alpine or like a Crinetics, then we move forward aggressively on it. And I think that we do -- we executed this deal from a position of strength, right? We're expanding our leadership in CF. You're seeing good commercial uptake on CASGEVY and Dravics. We're on target for $500 million plus in revenue from both of those products this year. The renal pipeline, as you mentioned, is really exciting. But this rare specialty endocrinology space where what you measure in Phase II is what you measure in Phase III, right? It feels very derisked to us. And we love the call point. I think a lot of our learnings from our CF commercial expertise can be deployed for Crinetics and that like we did with Alpine, we can hopefully accelerate some of the launch timings or expand the global footprint, et cetera, and bring our expertise.
So when we see something that we identify, we move aggressively to get it before we don't feel like with Aside, if you recall, there were a lot of assets. We were confident in our due diligence and move forward the one that we thought was best-in-class, potentially best-in-class. And with Crinetics, it's the same sort of story.
Okay. So without such a sort of multipolar kind of narrative for Vertex, how do you sort of frame the strategic priorities for the company into the end of the year and into next year?
Yes. So we are excited to be now with the closing Crinetics last week, right? We talk about these disease area pillars. So commercialized in, obviously, CF as well as hematology with CASGEVY and acute pain. Now with Talsonifi's launch underway in acromegaly in rare endocrine diseases. And then we look very much forward to a PDUFA date of November 30 for povetacicept in IgAN. So that will be the first launch in our fifth pillar, if you will, in renal. And with 3 programs behind that, we're excited for that.
So the Pove PDUFA date is a key milestone, November 30. Before that, though, I would say you're likely to get the Phase II proof-of-concept data in essentially a patient population expansion study for Anexapin. And that's the AMPLIFIED Phase II study, which is looking at -- it's a Phase II study of about 50 patients. All patients have 2 APO1 alleles. About half of them have more modest proteinuria than you see in the pivotal study, AMPLITUDE and about half of them have a heavier proteinuria, but type 2 diabetes. And so we see this as separate and above from the AMPITUDE pivotal study. That catalyst technically flies into 2027, but you'll get that interim analysis of the Phase III study in early 2027. And that's about 150,000 patients. This study, separate and above would be an incremental 100,000 patients if you were to see positive results from AMPLIFY.
So we're excited for that. And that is probably the nearest-term catalyst in the Pove IgAN that I mentioned. And Also, we have promised Phase II proof-of-concept data in our myotonic dystrophy type 1 program before the end of the year as well as a look at the first of our NextGen 3.0 CF portfolio of products that's VX-828. So I think those are the key milestones before the end of the year. And then also, we'll complete enrollment in our 2 Phase III studies in diabetic peripheral neuropathy in our chronic pain franchise. Those studies are both 12-week studies, and so you could look at data, say, maybe by mid-2027. And happy then to go into the outlook in type 1 diabetes and some of the other areas that we have, too. But those are the key near-term catalysts as well as continued commercial execution.
I think that teed up most of the rest of the conversation here. But maybe before we jump down any of those sort of -- one thing that we get asked all the time is -- or oftentimes we kind of go down this is really understanding how much the company has really matured over the past sort of 2 to 3 years. And I think for folks sometimes the development on the commercial side has been maybe lost in the mix a bit. So maybe just lay out kind of how that commercial infrastructure has kind of evolved since you guys were solely a CF study story not too many years ago.
Yes. I think that's a really good insight. And I think sometimes investors think -- sometimes we even joke CF sells itself. That's not the case, right? But it is a very efficient model, but I think there are a lot of learnings from CF particularly on the patient support side of things that we can leverage into other areas, like I mentioned. But I think the company has evolved, right, initially with the hiring of the sales force and support structure around CASGEVY, right, with a very long patient journey and a lot of support that's required both at the authorized treatment center level as well as for patients and their families for a functional cure, like truly transformative therapies.
These people are in the hospital 2 or more times a year and now they're not. So hiring the sales force for that completely separate and distinct from CF. And then the learnings going into a mass market like acute pain with 80 million prescriptions, right, initially starting with about 100 sales force reps there, 150, while we were building up the reimbursement and access there. We doubled that sales force earlier this year in the March, April time frame as more reimbursed access came online and have been adding things like marketing initiatives, directed TV content on streaming services. If you search for total knee replacement, have you thought about your pain therapy as well, right? Celebrity spokes people like Jason Tatum and Lindsey Vaughan, right, and educating about the total cost of the opioid crisis, the pain crisis because people are undertreated, et cetera.
So I think a lot of maturation and growth. And what we're excited for is Crinetics comes with its own sales force for the specialty endocrine space. And then in renal, we are ready to go. And this is really the first time where you will see synergies in the sales force, if you will. It's not why we did it, but with 4 programs in renal, IgAN to be the first, we see sort of a great halo effect.
So we were able to, I think, very excited. We were able to hire the vast majority of the reps have prior nephrology experience because I think they're excited about Plovine IgAN as well as the pipeline behind that and their relationships with nephrologists. And so I think this one will be really exciting. We aim to have the largest sales force and greatest share of voice of the novel disease-modifying therapies in that space.
Okay. So since you teed it up, let's talk a little bit about Pove. At this point, we're 2-plus months out from the PDUFA date. How would you sort of frame updates on the FDA interactions and confidence into the PDUFA? You clearly sound pretty confident, but I'll let you refine it.
I think that nothing -- nothing really to disclose, but the Renal division has a good -- has been a really good partner to us, and I think everything remains firmly on track with good visibility for November 30.
Okay. As far as some of the emerging competitor data and I guess, more clarity on sort of the longer-term eGFR trends. How that impacts positively or negatively your view of differentiation for Pove versus some of the earlier movers?
Yes. I think that all things equal, it would be nice to have all your data all the time, but we feel strongly that there is such a good understanding and acceptance of the correlation of UPCR reduction to eGFR stabilization, right?
And then those competitors who have released the data, you have seen that, right? And so we feel that we are truly differentiated in our UPCR reduction with that 52% at 36 weeks, whereas some competitors had an extra month of data, right? So we truly think it's best-in-class in terms of UPCR reduction, best-in-class hematuria resolution of Gd-IgA1 reductions and in getting more patients to KDIGO guidelines to 0.5 grams, right? So we think we have a good story to tell there as well as not just the greatest reduction but the shape of those curves, the speed of the reduction, I think, really matters. And so I think UPCR reduction is a proxy for eGFR stabilization, which in and of itself is a proxy for progression to ESRD, right, and death dialysis and transplant.
So I think we feel very good about that clinical story as well as the safety profile. And then we know that we have a clear advantage in terms of the patient administration characteristics with the only folks with the lowest dose 0.46ml, so it's not painful. It's through an auto-injector, and it's monthly compared to weekly or much higher dose with a prefilled syringe from the competitor.
So with those points in mind, how much should we read through from the competitor launch data, right, you guys are going to launch later this year. Obviously, there's going to be a period as the product's ramping. In the meanwhile, we're going to have sort of incremental updates from the companies, other earlier movers on how their launches are going. Why should we not read through from those launches to the overall market size in the interim?
I think that we have been quite gratified. I'm pleased to see the strong uptake so far. It points to the fact that IgAN patients are -- they're 130-plus thousand of them in the U.S. that are biopsy confirmed with their diagnosis. They're typically younger patients, otherwise healthy in their 40s and have been kind of these ticking time bombs, right, waiting for a therapy.
So I think that certainly the first mover with Otsuka and [indiscernible] will benefit from those -- from being first mover. But even with the strong uptake, we're still talking really small numbers out of that total pie here in the U.S. And so I think that there's still plenty of patients to go after. We'll also be going after switchers in this type of market. I think you will potentially see that and not giving any color on sort of shape of the curve, but we do aim to have winning share over the long term.
Have you guys thought about how you're going to communicate launch metrics in the early kind of quarters and months of the launch? I don't know what you guys have said around communicating or being allowing scripts to be visible or beyond that, how you guys are planning on communicating?
Yes. I think stay tuned and still working through that.
As far as povetacicept beyond IgAN, you're moving into a number of other programs, but there's -- there's been sort of illusions to potentially expanding beyond the initial 4 indications. How should we think about that? And to the extent that, that might be sort of teased out with greater clarity over the course of the balance of the year or into next year?
Yes. So we are currently in the Phase III portion or Phase II/III for primary membrane nephropathy and that there's no accelerated approval pathway there. So that is a 104-week study. But we were -- we chose the -- there was a dose-ranging study. We chose the 80 mg dose to move forward with. So that's ongoing. And then we're also currently not in renal, but in a Phase II in Myasthenia Gravis, that's ongoing as well in Pove and still evaluating the RUBY-4 data in WAHA. And so we do still are very excited about the Pove pipeline and a product potential here and are executing on that as quickly as we can and more to come.
Okay. As far as the MG effort, how should we sort of Think about that trial design, I guess, the rationale for that trial design. Obviously, there's some compelling data out of China. You guys have talked about trying to recapitulate that in a Western population. But this really short-term trial is maybe kind of walk through that and exactly what you guys are trying to show?
Sure. So I think a couple of things. One is that we do view Myasthenia Gravis as kind of the poster child for B-cell-mediated diseases. So that's sort of the cause of biology there. Secondly, we found the China-only data very, very compelling, and that's with a wild-type TACI versus we have this designed engineered TACI for better tissue distribution, et cetera. So we'd hope to be able to perform as well or better. And I think in terms of the duration or the size of the trial, about 30 patients, 12 weeks, we are looking for a meaningful treatment effect, right? And it is a dose-ranging study. And that's really what we're looking to get out of it. And I think that the opportunity here, again, you could say like IgAN a crowded space, but with the FcRns, for example, the need for cycling, et cetera. We don't see that with Pove and so we think it could be a much better option for patients.
Okay. We touched in your opening comments on an axon, and maybe we should pivot there. We're going to get amplified data, as you mentioned before the end of the year. Should we have lower expectations here relative to what you showed with AMPLITUDE? Clearly, your competitor in the space had, let's just say, noisy data. I think sort of validating your decision to kind of approach these populations separately. That certainly looks like the right decision in retrospect. But should we go into this with maybe a different set of expectations than maybe the people went into the original study.
The Phase II.
Yes.
So I thank you for saying it that way. I think we would concur that we do feel sort of validated in our decision of a very homogeneous population for the Phase III pivotal study and focus on those patients with a high [indiscernible]. For the AMPLIFY study, the population expansion study, I think that it is proof of concept, right? There is no control arm as well. But I think that there -- maybe you could characterize it as a clearer through line, if you will, in the more modest proteinuria patients to the AMPLITUDE study just less dynamic range, if you will, in which to operate. And on the type 2 diabetes arm, right, arguably, that's a bit more exploratory, certain good reasons in the literature to believe in the risk factors here in terms of why we think it should succeed. But we know definitively, we are inhibiting APOL1. What we don't know is how much of the impaired kidney function is from the type 2 diabetes and the hyperglycemia versus how much is from the APOL1. So that's what we'll learn in this study. But from very clear distinct populations. And the overriding key factor is that you have two APOL1 variants.
Okay. And as far as in AMPLITUDE. To what extent do you have good clarity on exactly these sort of -- where FDA is going to draw the line, what's the regulatory hurdle for that interim analysis. Clearly in IgAN, we had -- there were a bunch of earlier movers. We kind of had a better sense of what would look like for a lack of a better term. We don't really have that same sort of precedent here. So how should we think about that?
Yes. I think to be clear, right, this study has been ongoing for quite some time, these patients are not diagnosed and waiting, right? So we've been enrolling this study for several years and are really pleased with the market development work we've done and the increase in pace there and are on track to complete full enrollment by the end of this year now. But as a result, it is not a UPCR endpoint, right? And in fact, it's actually UACR. But the primary endpoint -- sorry, for naxiplan and the Phase III interim analysis, it is eGFR slope, right? And so how does it separate from placebo. And I think the closest outcome to really answering your question is that these patients progress in terms of their eGFR decline at almost twice the rate of traditional kidney disease patients.
So I think the combination of -- we saw just 13-week data in the Phase II of 47.6% reduction in UPCR. As well as this faster rate of decline, being able to show that differential in terms of the eGFR slope even at just 48 weeks is where our confidence stems from.
Okay. Maybe let's switch gears to the pain franchise. It's one of the things we commented we remarked upon really sort of all somewhere long has been the strength of ZRavax -- we want to monitor plenty of launches, some of which hit plateaus, some which have down -- up weeks, down weeks, et cetera. But -- the steady growth of ZRavax has been one of the more kind of remarkable dynamics we've seen over the past couple of months.
At this point, what do you think are really sort of the key drivers to really continue to see that growth and really to drive another inflection here, not just this year but into the next couple of years.
Yes. I'll try and give a short answer, but it really is many, many different factors, all of which we are trying to execute as best we can. So I think, first and foremost, is the drug works really well, right? And the physician and patient feedback has been very, very positive.
Secondly is the fact that we have worked very hard on reimbursed access, right, with 260 million covered lives as of early August. As well as working through some of the machinations if you will, of going from sort of signing a contract at the parent plan level to getting things to work at the Street at the patient level. We expanded the field force, as I mentioned, some more feet on the street. We have very purposely gone very broad in terms of the prescriber base because we want to build this for the long term.
So everything from ER and trauma anesthesiologists to OB/GYNs and plastics, dentists, et cetera, orthopods are a big focus as well. And that's another area where you started to see orthopedic surgeons publishing single center series, for instance, a total knee series, showing 80%, 90% opioid-free. So those sorts of studies are being published and presented now. That helps continue the momentum, too.
A lot of marketing initiatives. I mentioned celebrity spokespeople and things like being on the boards at the Stanley Cup, and I understand you may see us in a professional pickleball tour, et cetera. So those types of things continue. But really focus on continuing to execute in terms of reimbursed access, the field force and then focus on prescribers, getting additive formularies, treatment protocols, discharge protocols.
Is this going to be the most complicated launch that we see in Vortex.
I think it is best. So we are very pleased with the script progress. As you mentioned, we're on track to 3x our scripts in '26 versus '25. Even at 1.6 million, though, that compares to 80 million scripts are written, 80 million Americans get a script each year. So I think it is very complex, and it's very different from the other things we do, which is one reason for some of the recent management changes that we recently brought on a new member of our executive committee to focus on.
Sure. So we're very pleased to have a new EVP in Jasper Van Grunson, who'll be focused on the pain franchise in its entirety. As well as on some of our newer products and working closely with Duncan McCagney who's our Chief Commercial Officer.
How should we think about the chronic pain studies at this point. We -- I think there's been sort of ups and downs in terms of where the -- how the Street is viewed or how much value they've kind of ascribed to Vertex I would argue for the past year, there's been very little credit ascribed to chronic pain, maybe rightfully so, maybe not. But you're going to have some readouts soon. So how should we think about that? How should we think about where the bar is for not only approvability but for -- really to derisk the products commercially.
Yes. I think you're right that there is a high degree of street skepticism around pain or maybe it's just caution is maybe a better word. And I think that going back about a year ago, as you said, when we said that our hope for moving into peripheral neuropathic or chronic pain with one diabetic [indiscernible] and one lumbosacral radiculopathy study would hopefully enable a broad peripheral neuropathic pain level an agency and the agency declined.
So we pivoted quickly and began our second DPN study because there is real clarity from a regulatory standpoint to studies in any peripheral neuropathic pain category, and you'll get that indication. And I think DPN is a much better understood type of pain, if you will. There are more centers that have run these types of trials before and well understand how to manage the placebo effect, which really has been the drug works, it's really been managing the placebo effect. So going to a more limited number of sites with significant experience in DPN and in running DPN studies and managing DPN placebo effect is how we decided to execute that. It's 2 studies, one is about 1,100 patients with split 1:1:1 between suzetrogene, placebo and pregabalin arm. And the second one is about 700 patients just versus placebo.
Okay. And how should we think about those -- obviously, you have your combination efforts behind those two, which I think given some of the M&A in the space has certainly stimulated a lot of attention. Should we think about those efforts in any way being stage gated by the outcomes of these chronic pain opportunities. Just trying to get a sense on kind of urgency with the combination of...
We remain very excited about the opportunity and think that combining a 17 and 18 because 17, the sodium ion channel that triggers, right, and then 18 propagates it. Challenging targets to inhibit, which is why we did 18 first. But if you could do both, we think it could be synergistic in terms of the efficacy benefit and so rather than I would say waiting on the DPN results, I would say it's more of potentially waiting for the combo and to see where it might be able to go both in terms of acute and chronic.
Okay. In the past, you talked about potentially needing a partner. If you were going to go into these larger potentially more primary care kind of oriented settings, but a lot of that commentary was a couple of years ago now. And as we kind of talked about already, it's a drastically different company than it was 2 to 3 years ago. Are you still viewing it the same way? Has maybe some of that calculus shifted? Or would it kind of stimulate a broader rethink in the event of positive data?
I think in the event that we decided to pursue musculoskeletal pain over time, that's clearly a primary care market and would be a candidate for partnership. I think we do feel that we have made some pivots and learned some lessons, but still feel like it can be a specialty commercial model in peripheral neuropathic as well as in acute, but I'd say we're always learning and evaluating.
Okay. Maybe we touched on it right at the start, the Crinetics deal added a commercial asset right now in Pulsonify. And of course, the CAH asset, which I still can't pronounce a little bit still to come. Maybe on Pulsonify maybe help us just think about the market opportunity and how Vertex is best positioned to maximize this commercial opportunity?
Sure. And as Susie mentioned at the outset, 1 of the reasons we really like this deal was because of the perfect strategic fit. It is with the Vertex portfolio and with our expertise. So Acromegaly is a rare genetic disease. It's a specialty market, so there are about 3,000 endocrinologists in the U.S. who are treating acromegaly, so a very tractable footprint and we bring all of our expertise in rare disease commercialization and also expanding it to OUS countries as well, where we have a track record of commercialization, securing reimbursement, et cetera.
So we think that we can bring all of that to accelerate the launch and expand it globally.
Okay. And when you think about acumelenant. Its been a lot of practice. You guys -- when you announced the deal, you talked about a multibillion kind of commercial opportunity. I guess the question is what do we need to see on efficacy as well as on safety to really kind of deliver on that. There's been a lot of talk around the liver elevations that we're seeing in an earlier study. You guys sort of made your case and why you maybe it was a little bit overblown or why it's noise or it's surmountable. But would love to hear kind of like an update on how you view that aspect of the profile.
Sure. So what we had said is with the Crinetics acquisition, we see potential for $5 billion in peak sales with Palsonify as a potential blockbuster and Acumelan as a multibillion-dollar asset. So obviously, we see a lot of value on that side of it. It's in Phase III study right now in congenital adrenal hyperplasia. And I know it's a hot topic time lines for enrollment completion data, et cetera. We just closed the transaction. So we're getting our hands around all of that, and we'll have updates later, including updated accounting and financial information on our Q3 call.
But in terms of what we're looking for, so CAH is a disease of impaired cortisol synthesis, which leads to elevated androgens. And so the goal in treating it is you want to normalize the androgen levels sustainably or durably over time, while allowing these patients to taper down their doses of glucocorticoids to physiologic levels, basically. And we think that's a unique proposition that acumelenant can offer. And I'll have to see that borne out by the Phase III data, of course.
On the safety front, yes, there have been questions about that 1 incident of liver enzyme elevation. And I say 1 because I think there were a few, but there was only 1 that could not be ruled out as possibly related to acumelenant and what we saw there was some elevations of ASTs, ALTs that was reversible. There was no elevation in bilirubin, so no cases of Hy's law there. And so once the patient rolled off a study drug because it happened toward the end of the study, they were fine, no clinical consequences, everything went back to normal. And those data were shared with the FDA and other regulatory agencies, and they didn't ask for any changes to monitoring protocols or anything like that.
So based on the Phase II data, we're confident in the safety profile and look forward to seeing the Phase III.
So I have a little bit of a comment, a little bit of a question. Are we going to continue to have everything XCF broken out in some basket of non-CF because next year, you're going to deliver more growth on an absolute basis XCF than NCF. So final question.
Yes, I would say that as we grow and diversify as your initial question started, right, we continue to seek ways to make sure that people can understand the story and the key growth drivers. So even going back last year, right, I think it was still footnotes with the different revenue lines, right? And so we have progressed there and given that basket of guidance, I think -- some of it will be just when they kind of hit critical mass, et cetera.
So stay tuned. I don't have a more definitive answer for you, but we'll try and make it easy to understand.
Perfect. Vertex. Thank you very much for joining us.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — 12th Annual Cantor Fitzgerald Global Healthcare Conference
Vertex used a Cantor conference slot to underscore diversification: Crinetics acquisition closed, povetacicept PDUFA set for Nov 30, and several near-term R&D catalysts.
📣 Key Message
- Takeaway: Vertex is shifting from a cystic fibrosis (CF)–centric profile toward a diversified specialty biopharma: acquisition adds a rare endocrine commercial product and Phase III assets, povetacicept (a renal immunotherapy) has a firm Nov 30 PDUFA, and multiple clinical readouts and early commercial ramps are near-term value drivers.
🎯 Strategic Highlights
- Acquisition: Crinetics deal closed, bringing a commercial acromegaly product (Talsonifi) and acumelenant in Phase III for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, expanding Vertex’s rare endocrine footprint and global launch capability.
- Povetacicept: Management asserts strong differentiation in proteinuria (UPCR) reduction, simpler monthly auto‑injector dosing (0.46 mL), and confidence in FDA engagement ahead of Nov 30 PDUFA for IgA nephropathy.
- Commercial build: Company emphasizes matured commercial infrastructure — CF launches, expanded sales force for acute pain (260M covered lives), and plans to leverage nephrology reps for renal launches.
🔭 New Information
- Catalysts: Confirmed Nov 30 PDUFA for povetacicept; near‑term data windows include Phase II Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 and a first look at NextGen CF candidate VX‑828 before year‑end; AMPLIFIED APOL1 Phase II and Phase III interim readouts targeted into 2027.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Deal rationale: Management framed Crinetics as strategic fit that accelerates endocrine presence and leverages Vertex rare‑disease commercial expertise.
- Povetacicept vs peers: Questions focused on UPCR as a surrogate for eGFR, differentiation on speed/shape of proteinuria decline and patient administration vs competitors.
- Safety & trials: Regulators asked about a liver enzyme signal with acumelenant; company says elevations were reversible, no Hy’s law cases and agencies required no extra monitoring; pain and diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) trial designs were discussed after a regulatory pivot to more focused DPN programs.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investor view: The Crinetics acquisition materially diversifies Vertex and shortens time to additional commercial revenue, while the Nov 30 povetacicept PDUFA and several clinical readouts (CF NextGen, myotonic dystrophy, APOL1 program, DPN trials) create a sequence of binary catalysts—watch regulatory outcomes and early launch uptake closely.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Awesome. Last session of the day. Thank you very much for all for joining us today. My name is Mohit Bansal. I'm one of the biotech and pharma analyst here at Wells Fargo. And I have the Vertex IR team with us, Susie Lisa, Head of IR; and Manisha Pai. She's part of the IR team as well. So thank you very much, both of you to join us.
Thanks for having us, Mohit.
I don't have ED, Investor Relations, sorry, I do not have the title -- thank you. So exciting times at Vertex. There's a lot more to talk about, not just CF at this point. So talk a little bit about what you are -- where investors are asking most of the questions and where you're spending most time in terms of talking about the Vertex story at this point?
Sure. So I think it is an exciting time, and we have sort of a catalyst-rich period coming up. So I'd say most of the conversations relate around that. I will say recent news last month, we have been getting a lot of CF questions heading into competitor data that I think ended up being not as much of a concern as many have thought. And so CF questions have gone back more towards commercial aspects, the ALYFTREK, which continues to go very well and then our Next-Gen 3.0 family of therapies that are in the pipeline. But the majority of questions, I think, focus on upcoming catalysts, and that's primarily within our new disease area pillar of renal therapies, namely disease-modifying therapies that are addressing unmet need in the renal area where historically, they've had basically repurposed cardiovascular medicine. So really, we're calling it a renal renaissance in a very exciting time.
The most near-term catalyst will be on our inaxaplin therapy, which is for APOL1-mediated kidney disease. And that's where we said that you should expect in the next couple of months, our Phase II proof-of-concept study for a patient population expansion study called AMPLIFIED, which is looking at patients with 2 APOL1 alleles and then 2 cohorts, one that has more modest level of proteinuria and the other cohort has the 2 APOL1 alleles and type 2 diabetes. So you'll get that proof-of-concept data sometime in the coming months.
The next catalyst that's super exciting will be our November 30 PDUFA date for povetacicept in IgAN. So this will be our first launch -- commercial launch in the renal area. We're very excited for that. We are launch ready. Our sales force is hired. We have very high degrees of nephrology experience in that sales force given the depth of the pipeline, the clinical differentiation of pove, the safety profile and the patient administration benefit. So we're very excited for that. And then the next -- we've got a couple of other data sets before the end of the year, likely one in myotonic dystrophy type 1, which is certainly timely right now. We can go into more detail there.
In our CF therapies, VX-828 is the first of the NextGen 3.0, you could see data before the end of the year. And then we'll complete enrollment in our 2 Phase III diabetic peripheral neuropathy studies, and that's in the chronic pain space. We'll complete enrollment before the end of the year. Those are 12-week studies that would put us on pace for data sometime in the first half of 2027, likely. And then very importantly is you will get the Phase III interim analysis in the first quarter of 2027 on inaxaplin in the sort of primary or pivotal study there of primary AMKD, which is patients with 2 APOL1 alleles and heavy proteinuric burden. And so we're very excited for that. It's been a long time coming and likely would be our second launch in -- commercially in the renal space.
And sorry, I would just add that Crinetics just closed last week, right? And so more to come there in terms of updating guidance, but continue to be encouraged by the PALSONIFY launch in the U.S. and hoping to be able to accelerate launches outside the U.S. and then look forward to atumelnant in CAH and getting -- completing enrollment in that Phase III study. I think those are most of the key catalysts, but it is a lot going on between now and the first half of next year.
Clearly a lot going on basically, and we barely mentioned CF here. Awesome. So let's just talk -- why don't we start with the time like in the chronological order, the catalyst here, right? So inaxaplin in AMKD, but let's just talk about the Phase II portion of the trial. So there is a population expansion study for diabetic patients. And you have characterized this being a little bit more risky than the broader patient population. So talk about that. And then also, I want to touch upon the moderate proteinuria patients because so far, with this molecule, we have only seen data in FSGS patients. So how much does the moderate proteinuria patient data set derisk the eventual trial, at least for the proteinuria endpoint?
Sure. So maybe to start with that group and then go back to diabetes. I think that the data that you have seen was the Phase II portion of the Phase II/III for the pivotal, right? And yes, that was an FSGS population. But what we think, and we have long held this belief is that what is crucial is not the FSGS diagnosis, but the confirmation that you have 2 APOL1 variants, right? You need the genetic test. And FSGS is just a histological confirmation. It's a scarring pattern. But you don't see patients referred for biopsy to confirm that unless they have a very heavy proteinuric burden. So in the Phase III study, it's likely you will see a high percentage of FSGS patients. But if you had FSGS, you were welcome. If you didn't, you were welcome as long as you had 2 APOL1 alleles and a high proteinuric burden.
So I think in the modest proteinuria group here, we think the important thing is inhibition of APOL1. And we have 98% plus inhibition of that, and that's why we have confidence. We still need to see the data. But in this proof of concept in that more moderate proteinuria group, it's not FSGS that we're treating. It's the APOL1 inhibition and hence, our view or our optimism for the data. The one difference, obviously, will be you have less dynamic range because you're starting at a lower point, there's less reduction, if you could, on an absolute basis because you aren't starting at 0.7 or 0.8, right? You're starting at something like 0.3 or lower.
Now to your diabetes question, I think there, too, we're excited for that data. But the question here is we know we're inhibiting APOL1 what we don't know is how much of their kidney function is impaired by their type 2 diabetes as opposed to the APOL1, and we're not treating the type 2 diabetes, right? So that's what we look forward to learning. I think that we are quite pleased with how rigorous we were. It was a real challenge to enroll the interim analysis in the more homogeneous population of the Phase III study, AMPLITUDE. And now we're looking forward to having decent 20-plus patient size cohorts in each of those 2 arms for the AMPLIFIED data in the coming months.
Got it. So you're more -- like do you think the probability is higher for a good data set in the moderate patient followed by the diabetes patients.
I think you could say there's a clearer through line, if you will, and there's more of a question mark on the type 2 diabetes impact upon kidney function. Yes.
Got it. And these trials are -- these cohorts are a gating factor for you to expand the program into those indications.
That's right. We talk about in the AMPLITUDE study, the pivotal study with interim analysis next year that we view that as about 150,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe. And that if you expand the separate cohort here from AMPLIFIED, it's likely adding about 100,000 additional patients to the target population.
Got it. So one question we get, so moving to the AMPLITUDE Phase III trial. So these are so similar that I had to say Phase II and Phase III. So I think the agreement with the FDA was that at 1-year mark based on proteinuria reduction and what -- where do you stand on eGFR, it could be a potential file label data set at that point. So the question we get a lot is that is 1-year time point enough to see good enough improvement on eGFR or like the ranges of outcome could be like you continue the trial or not.
So it is a 48-week endpoint for the interim analysis of the Amplitude Phase III study. And the endpoints there, the accelerated approval endpoint, to be clear, is the change in eGFR from baseline. And then in addition, right, it is the reduction in proteinuria. And I would say that our confidence in this study stems from 2 things. One is that in the Phase II portion of this Phase II/III study, we saw at just 13 weeks, a 47.6% reduction in proteinuria. And that's pretty dramatic, and it continues to decline from there. And so that sort of proteinuria reduction, I think it's reasonable to assume would be associated with stabilization of eGFR, right? And it's -- you have to look at how it's doing versus placebo on top of current standard of care.
The second thing is that we know that AMKD patients, the rate of decline of their eGFR is about 50% faster than typical CKD patients. And so they're losing about 6 or 7 per year versus something more like losing or 4 or so, 3 or 4 for typical CKD patients. So that's why we think that at 48 weeks, we are hopeful that we can show this -- demonstrate this type of result in addition to strong reduction in UPCR.
Got it. And then how should we think about the disclosure there? So FDA wants to see eGFR not in this indication, but I mean, typically in IgAN, they do want to see eGFR data, but you do not necessarily want to disclose it. So like should we expect data on both endpoints or just proteinuria when you...
I think that for the Amplitude inaxaplin study in the interim analysis, that's the endpoint. So we will disclose that 48-week eGFR. And if it's successful, right, then we will continue to enroll the study -- sorry, we hope we're on target to complete enrollment by the end of this year, right? But we will continue to follow patients for the full 2-year endpoint. in IgAN. And I would say that the field may be changing in AMKD, but it's not there yet, and there's still clearly this eGFR endpoint.
In IgAN, in contrast, as you know, the agency has moved to UPCR as an endpoint. And I think there is still debate ongoing about disclosures of 1- or 2-year eGFR. The U.S. FDA clearly will accept 1-year eGFR data. Other global regulators will not, right? There isn't a path to accelerated approval in Europe. And there are more patients in Asia with IgAN than there are in U.S. and Europe combined. So that's some of the work that we're going back to consider in terms of disclosures and timing on pove in IgAN.
Got it. So for pove, FDA is allowing 1 year eGFR at this point. Got it. That's probably the reason some of your competitors are looking at the early data and then just trying to...
I think some who are more focused solely on the domestic opportunity versus we are thinking about the entire global opportunity. Got it. So stay tuned.
Got it. Very helpful. So moving to pove. So ahead of the launch later this year, so I mean, you have -- you are preparing for a broad launch in the -- with a large field force here. Talk a little bit about like you are probably going to -- you are the third one to the market, but you have the best offering in terms of overall profile of the product. Talk a little bit about, is there a low-hanging fruit or KDIGO guidelines updating to like less is better kind of situation. So like -- how should we think about the early adopters and ultimately before your profile kind of broadens the scope for you?
Yes. I think that we've been very happy to see the early launches from competitors and the reactions in the marketplace, right? IgAN patients are typically otherwise very healthy and on the younger side, right, they're -- in their 40s typically and sort of have been these ticking time bombs. But there are 160,000 patients in the U.S. that are biopsy confirmed in terms of their diagnosis. And even with the strong launches that you've seen, we're still talking very small penetration into those 160,000 or so patients.
I think that we are really looking forward to our PDUFA date and launch later this year. Our sales force is in place and ready. I think we're quite pleased to see how many of them have prior nephrology experience given their optimism around the broader renal pipeline that we have. I think the messaging clearly will be on the trifecta, as you mentioned, of better clinical data, clean safety profile and then the patient administration characteristics, which we think are clearly differentiating in terms of once weekly low-volume 0.46 ml -- sorry, once monthly low-volume auto-injector at home. And I think that -- this will be a market where we will -- I think you will see switching and we'll go after switchers and we'll go after de novo patients as well.
I think initially, as the field is moving so fast and you see fairly recent changes to KDIGO guidelines, right, in terms of trying to get patients to that threshold of 0.5 in terms of their proteinuria. I think initially, you probably will see physicians targeting higher proteinuric burden patients, but we would expect to see that coming down over time and a goal to get more and more patients to those guidelines. And KDIGO also, right, recall, instead of previously it was treated serially ACEs, ARBs, SGLT2s, then disease-modifying therapies.
Now I think it is more of a move to do things concurrently and recognizing sort of saving nephrons sooner is better. And so looking to get patients on these disease-modifying therapies. And so between share of voice, the clinical profile, clean safety, the patient administration benefits and then also, we think our expertise in CF with patient programs around getting them on drug, supporting them on drug, helping them with reimbursed access, et cetera, that's important in the chronic therapy as well, and our expertise in CF will serve us well there, too, and that's how we're looking to have winning share.
Very helpful. And we have seen eGFR data for like eGFR for wild-type, then some eGFR data for Vera as well. So how do you internally think about those eGFR data sets? Like they look more robust than anything that we have seen in IgAN so far. So let's say, using [indiscernible] as a benchmark, I mean, do you -- like -- so do you have to be in that ballpark? Like I mean, like is there a number where it looks inferior or superior to existing therapies? Or like how do you think about that?
Yes. I think that there are a couple of ways to look at it. On the one hand, right, stabilization, you could say, is stabilization, right? But we do think that there's potential that, again, sort of back to time is nephron, if you will, you'd rather save more of them sooner. And if you're on a chronic therapy, could a 42% reduction versus something in the 30% reduction in UPCR, does that compound over 10 years. And we think that it potentially will. We also know that we had best-in-class results from our interim analysis in terms of reductions in Gd-IgA1 and resolution of hematuria as well as in getting the percentage of patients to both KDIGO guidelines. So I think all of that is what will help differentiate us understanding that those are strong.
eGFR itself is a proxy for progression to end-stage renal disease and death, dialysis and transplant, right? So I think understanding these other endpoints like proteinuria, hematuria and Gd-IgA1 are proxies for eGFR. There's strong understanding by physicians and even payers there. So I don't think we'll necessarily -- I think we are well positioned to advocate our case, if you will.
Got it. Completely makes sense. The other indication, which doesn't get talked a lot about is myasthenia gravis here. I mean, Vor has shown seen or RemeGen has seen some interesting data in China there. So mechanistically, how BAFF and APRIL could differentiate versus what is out there, FcRns are the front line and then you have complement inhibitors out there. What is the value proposition for BAFF/APRIL inhibitor in myasthenia gravis based on your thoughts?
Yes. I think we view myasthenia gravis as, if you will, sort of the poster child for a B-cell-mediated disease. So being able to inhibit at really 2 points on the maturation cycle, we think, is very compelling. And the data out of China with a wild type, we felt were -- did support that view of myasthenia gravis as being sort of a prime candidate for a B-cell inhibitor. And we think with the design, the engineering that's gone in to TACI in terms of its tissue distribution and penetration, et cetera, that we would be hopeful that we could show even better results in myasthenia gravis.
So we're currently enrolling a Phase II study. It's a 12-week study. We haven't given time lines on that, but that's another catalyst to look forward to probably over the next 12 months or so. And sorry, on FcRns and others, right, I think the key advantage of BAFF/APRIL inhibition is that you -- other therapies, right, you need to cycle on and cycle off, but the autoantibodies continue to develop, right? So with the BAFF/APRIL inhibitor, you wouldn't -- you could have chronic therapy and you wouldn't need to cycle on and cycle off and you could have sustained benefit.
Makes sense. So the Phase II study is actually not that big a study, like 30 patients across placebo, and I think there are 2 treatment arms there. So given the small size here, what exactly are you looking for? Because I think you'll make a go/no-go decision for Phase III based on this. So what exactly are you looking for to make that decision here?
Yes. We haven't given a bogey for that. But we do think...
I have to ask.
Yes, you had to ask, but we do think that the 12-week data on those 30 patients or so will be sufficient given what we hope -- I guess we could hint at the magnitude of the treatment effect, right, that we hope to see that that's enough time and enough patients in order to be able to make a decision.
Fair to assume you'll be looking at biomarkers as well more than not just the MG-ADL and all that.
I think, yes, that's right.
Got it. Very helpful. Moving to the pain franchise, JOURNAVX . I mean, so initially, it was off to a little bit slower launch, and now it seems like you're gaining traction in the last couple of quarters and with the formal placement at hospitals and all that. Talk a little bit about what you are seeing in terms of how P&T committees are actually implementing JOURNAVX and like what are the gating factors at this point for JOURNAVX uptake here?
Yes. I think we've been pleased with the progress in terms of adoption, whether it's by formulary or treatment protocols or care pathways. And there's all different aspects, whether it's inpatient, outpatient ambulatory surgery center, et cetera. And you see different levels of adoption at different facilities ranging from let's have a more measured adoption -- inclusion on our formulary to we've done the work and we're comfortable here, let's open it up broadly. But I think that it's one of the key drivers to the strong prescription growth that we've seen this year, where we remain on track to hit our goal of tripling prescriptions in 2026 versus 2025. But it is one of many factors.
So formulary care pathway treatment protocol adoption, along with improvement in reimbursed access covered lives as well as the doubling of the sales force, our marketing initiatives and celebrity spokespeople like Jayson Tatum. We're also, I think, very encouraged to see of late more and more physician-sponsored studies being published. For instance, orthopedic surgeons, in particular, are publishing their single center series of, say, total knee, and you're seeing really compelling results of 90%-plus type opioid-free results from some of the most painful surgeries out there. So I think that and then presenting it, we are doing more and more in terms of our patient outreach and micro targeting of it direct to -- directed TV advertisements and radio, et cetera. So I think it's the combination of this really sort of all-out approach that is leading to the strong growth in scripts and continued improvement in terms of gross to net. I'm happy to talk about that more, if you'd like as well.
Let's just talk about that because like -- I mean, there was also a portion there part where hospital versus retail split is also slightly more tilted towards hospital versus what you would want to see in long term. That's why the script length is also shorter. So talk a little bit about that as well because we are just using the script and multiplying with whatever number is there, but that's probably not true.
Sure. So we very purposely are thinking about this for the long term and therefore, went after a broad -- and it's a very broad label, right, moderate to severe acute pain. So we went after trying to be as broad as possible in terms of types of prescribers as well as settings of care. And so the market itself for acute pain is about 1/3 in-hospital use and 2/3 at home or retail. Our mix continues to be a bit more 50-50 because we are focused on those in-hospital prescribers who will then take it to their ancillary clinics, et cetera. So trying to build for the long term and focus there.
And I should have mentioned one of the other key drivers of script growth is this breadth of prescribers, where I think we're north of 36,000 prescribers, and it ranges from ER and trauma docs to orthopods to dentists, obviously, plastics, OB/GYN, anesthesiologists, et cetera. So pleased with that. But I think that the average hospital script is something more in kind of the 2- to 5-day range versus a retail script is something in the 14-day range. But I think the real sort of lag, if you will, between the revenue recognition that we had initially hoped to see versus what we now expect is related more towards reimbursed access and some of the delays there and where our patient support program essentially is still being triggered, if you will, at the point of care in retail prescriptions.
So it's like a safety net that kicks in sort of blinded to both the patients and the pharmacist if there isn't reimbursed access, we don't want that patient to walk away or call their physician and say, I couldn't get my drug, right? We're trying to convert entire practices. So the PSP kicks in if you don't have reimbursed access. And what we're finding is sometimes you may have coverage at the parent plan level and it takes time to implement at the child plan level or there may be some minutia or technical aspects of how the script is written for a 14-day quantity limit or a prior auth that is getting in the way sometimes and the PSP is being triggered when it technically shouldn't be. And we're working through those issues and why we expect we'll keep the PSP in place as we work through them and continue to expect to see more revenue recognition.
Got it. So that is more of a '27 story? Or is it...
We talked about a more normalized gross to net in sort of mid-2027, probably something plus/minus 50% range.
Got it. Makes sense. Talk about the DPN trial as well a little bit here. I mean, you had robust data in Phase II. So the drug is active. The question here is placebo responses because a lot of pain trials have been killed because of the placebo response here. So to that extent, how are you managing that part of the control arm of the trial and I mean site training and all those aspects of things.
Yes. So thanks for remembering in the Phase II, right, we had greater than a 2-point improvement in NPRS. And so we know there's activity here. And I think sort of the good news of having to narrow our focus, if you will, in peripheral neuropathic pain is by going to DPN is there's a lot more clinical trial experience, both in terms of CROs and sites and our own and as well as with regulators. So a controlled number of sites significant training in terms of how to manage placebo effect and I think a better understanding of how to characterize the pain, how to work with patients, et cetera. So I think we are optimistic and excited to complete enrollment of those 2 studies by the end of the year, as I mentioned, and then see the data from there. But it is a lot about training and management of placebo effect. And with more experienced sites in this type of pain and a limited number of sites, we hope to be able to address that.
Got it. Very helpful. So last one, last set of questions about the Crinetics deal, right? So the one question we get a lot is that, I mean, you talked about $5 billion peak opportunity there versus at that point, consensus was somewhere around $3 billion for the company there. So in your internal projections, like where do you see the disconnect between like what you projected versus what analysts are projecting for Crinetics at that point?
Yes. So I can talk to you about how we get to that approximate $5 billion number in peak sales, and there are multiple ways to get there. So first, with PALSONIFY, which is approved for acromegaly, we see that as a blockbuster opportunity. The launch is off to a great start, and our goal is to accelerate it to expand outside of the U.S. And then atumelnant in congenital adrenal hyperplasia, we see that as the larger opportunity as a multibillion dollar opportunity. So between those 2, you could get to $5 billion. And atumelnant is also being studied in Cushing's disease, which could provide additional upside on top of that. So that's how we think about it.
And $5 billion doesn't include the early-stage assets at all at this point?
That's right.
Right. Okay. Got it. That's all upside. Awesome. So -- and then you will disclose the financial impact once you close -- like now you have closed the deal. So next quarter, we should expect the updated...
That's right.
Very helpful. So last question for both of you. Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference 2027. I hope you are here. I hope I'm here. So we are sitting here next year same time. By the way, dates are same 8 to 10 September next calendar.
Calendar.
So what would make you look back at the year and say it was a great year for us?
I think that it will be -- we look forward to saying we have a diversified commercial revenue picture with established disease area pillars across 5 areas, right? CF, hematology, acute pain or pain, broadly speaking, the specialty rare endocrinology with the Crinetics acquisition and then in renal. And potentially September '27, getting close to a second launch potentially in renal at that point in time and hopefully sitting on top of good DPN data in pain, a strong pove launch at that point in time, continued strength in the CF outlook, continued progress in CASGEVY in terms of number of patients and their essentially functional cure and the amazing outcomes there and then continue to push their earlier pipeline, right, whether that's in DM1 or in ADPKD or in other areas.
But I think it's those 5 established pillars, 3 of which are commercialized today. And with the Crinetics closing, we've got the fourth, but expanding that and then bringing along -- we didn't even mention type 1 diabetes, right? But then also, I think, hopefully getting close to a second -- a successful first launch in renal and getting close to a second potentially.
Anything to add?
That was pretty comprehensive. I'm not sure I have anything of value to add on top.
Thank you very much. On that high note, I really appreciate you coming here and all the best.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
Vertex presented a catalyst-rich investor update: near-term renal readouts and an IgAN PDUFA, plus commercial build and the Crinetics acquisition.
🎯 Key Message
- Central narrative: Vertex is in a catalyst-heavy phase: imminent inaxaplin proof-of-concept readout, a November 30 PDUFA for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy, upcoming CF and pain milestones, plus commercial launch readiness and integration of the Crinetics assets to expand specialty endocrinology.
🚀 Strategic Highlights
- Renal focus: Inaxaplin targets APOL1-mediated kidney disease using genetic selection; AMPLIFIED expansion cohorts (moderate proteinuria and type 2 diabetes) read out soon and AMPLITUDE Phase III has a 48‑week eGFR interim planned as an accelerated-approval marker.
- IgAN launch: Povetacicept (pove) PDUFA Nov 30; Vertex emphasizes clinical differentiation, clean safety and a once‑monthly low‑volume auto‑injector plus a hired nephrology sales force to pursue both switchers and new patients.
- Commercial & BD: JOURNAVX (acute pain) adoption is accelerating via hospital formularies and broader prescriber coverage; Crinetics acquisition adds PALSONIFY and atumelnant and is modeled as material upside (~$5B peak sales view internal to Vertex).
🔭 New Information
- Timelines: AMPLIFIED POC readout expected in coming months; AMPLITUDE 48‑week eGFR interim will be disclosed and a pivotal interim in Q1 2027 is planned for the primary AMKD study.
- Financial cadence: Vertex will disclose the Crinetics transaction financial impact in the next quarter and flagged regulatory nuances globally on eGFR versus proteinuria (UPCR) endpoints.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Inaxaplin risks: Management stressed APOL1 inhibition is the key biology; moderate proteinuria cohort is viewed as lower risk than the diabetes cohort, where diabetic damage may confound benefit.
- Endpoints & disclosure: Vertex expects to disclose 48‑week eGFR for AMPLITUDE interim; they noted global regulators differ on eGFR acceptance versus UPCR (proteinuria) for accelerated paths.
- Open items: Management declined to give numeric go/no‑go thresholds for myasthenia gravis Phase II or exact MG biomarker cutoffs and reiterated gross‑to‑net normalization is expected mid‑2027, not immediate.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investor takeaway: This was a forward‑looking, execution-focused update: multiple near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts could re-rate the stock if positive, while commercial execution (pove launch, JOURNAVX uptake) and Crinetics integration drive nearer-term revenue growth; key risks remain trial readouts, regulatory endpoint differences, and reimbursement/gross‑to‑net dynamics.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Susie Lisa. Please go ahead.
Good evening, all. My name is Susie Lisa, and as the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, it is my pleasure to welcome you to our Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. On tonight's call, making prepared remarks, we have Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, Vertex's CEO and President; Charlie Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer; and Duncan McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. The call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.
We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements, including, without limitation, those regarding Vertex's marketed medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, beta-thalassemia and moderate-to-severe acute pain, our pipeline, proposed acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals and the expected benefits of that transaction and Vertex's future financial performance, are based on management's current assumptions. Actual outcomes and events could differ materially. I would also note that select financial results and guidance that we will review on the call this evening are presented on a non-GAAP basis.
I'll now turn the call over to Reshma.
Thanks, Susie. Good evening all, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Vertex's second quarter performance was excellent, with strong momentum in the commercial portfolio, rapid progress across our R&D pipeline, and the announcement of the definitive agreement to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, which brings rare endocrine diseases as a fifth pillar to Vertex. Second quarter total revenue grew 12% year-on-year, driven by the strength of our cystic fibrosis portfolio and the growing contributions from our newer products, Casey and dynamics.
As I've previously highlighted, this is a year of execution for Vertex across commercial, clinical and regulatory. And on each of those fronts, we advanced significantly in the second quarter. Commercially, we delivered strong revenue growth across all diseases, made meaningful progress in reimbursed access and continue to execute on near-term launch planning to drive the next phase of growth.
Clinically, we continue to make significant progress in advancing our pipeline, including completing enrollment in the GLO Phase II study of VX-407 in ADPKD, tracking to complete enrollment in the AMPLITUDE Phase III study in AMKD by the end of this year and reporting results from the interim analysis cohort of amplitude in the beginning of 2027. We also remain on track to release results later this year from a proof-of-concept study in DM1 and an expanded population for AMKD in the AMPLIFY trial as well as the initial patient data from VX-828 in CF.
On the regulatory front, the BLA for Pove and IgAN was accepted in the U.S. with a November 30 PDUFA date. We achieved expanded labeling in record time for CASGEVY in patients ages 2 to 11 in the U.S. And I'm very pleased to share that as we continue to dose the Phase I/II/III study of zomilacell in type 1 diabetes, the IND was cleared for the blood type O islet cells in our T1D program, VX-017. We expect initiation of the VX-017 Phase I/II study in the near term.
Finally, with the announced acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, we look forward to multiple benefits of the deal, establishing a fifth pillar in rare endocrine diseases adding to our innovative R&D pipeline, accelerating revenue growth and enhancing long-term earnings. Tonight, I'll limit my R&D comments to new news in CF, renal and type 1 diabetes and close with some additional remarks regarding the Crinetics acquisition.
Let me start with CF, where we continue to extend our market leadership. Data we presented at ECFS reinforced that a lift trek best restores CFTR function amongst the available CFTR modulators. In particular, among children with CF under 12 years of age, the majority across all eligible genotypes achieve a sweat chloride less than 30 millimoles, which is the median among CF carriers. This is remarkable because at these sweat chloride levels, CF carriers do not exhibit manifestations of disease. In addition, we have initiated global regulatory submissions for ALYFTREK in children, ages 2 to 5. Global regulatory submissions for TRIKAFTA in patients ages 1 to 2 are also in progress.
Turning to our next wave in CF and VX-828, our next-generation 3.0 CFTR modulator recently completed dosing in the patient cohort and data are expected in the second half of this year. Behind VX-828, we continue to advance additional correctors in the NextGen 3.0 family and both VX-581 and VX-272 are in healthy volunteer studies. Let me close on CF with this. Our ultimate goal has been consistent for 2-plus decades to bring patients to carrier levels of sweat chloride.
Frankly, ALYFTREK's remarkable results, where nearly 2/3 of younger patients achieved sweat chloride levels less than 30 millimole per liter and for patients ages 12 plus more than 75% achieved sweat chloride levels within the carrier range of CFTR function means we are very close to that goal. Given the improvements in sweat chloride, PPFEV1 pulmonary exacerbations, hospitalizations, lung transplant and survival that we have seen in patients in clinical trials and/or the real world, we recognize that the unmet need is far lower today and the bar for any medicine to beat a lift truck is very, very high.
Thus, as we develop our next Gen 3.0 and BEYOND programs, we will evaluate multiple regimens in Phase I and cohorts of patients with CF. However, we will only advance assets into Phase II and beyond that show promise to beat ALYFTREK. In other words, to bring even more patients to sweat chloride levels less than 30 across all genotypes with once-daily dosing and excellent drug-like properties, including drug-drug interactions, anything less would not be competitive.
Moving now to our renal franchise, where we have 4 programs in mid- and late-stage development, povetacicept in IgAN in primary membranous nephropathy and axiplin in APOL1-mediated kidney disease NVX-407 in ADPKD, or autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Let me start with the most advanced program and significant milestone. In late May, the FDA accepted our BLA for Pove and IgAN and assigned a PDUFA date of November 30 of this year. As a reminder, the RAINIER Phase III interim analysis was a home run, delivering statistically significant and clinically meaningful results across the primary and all secondary end wines with a favorable safety profile and consistency in the primary endpoint of change from baseline in proteinuria across all groups.
We are in the final stages of launch readiness. Duncan will provide more details regarding our approach and excitement to go to market with Pove's differentiated profile of potentially best-in-class efficacy, a well-tolerated safety profile and patient-centric administration through small volume once-monthly dosing VN autoinjector at home. We are also advancing Pove internationally. We have completed the regulatory submission for accelerated approval of Pove in IgAN in Saudi Arabia, where Pove has received breakthrough designation and -- turning to POV in membranous nephropathy, our OLYMPUS Phase II/III pivotal trial is well underway.
The Phase II portion is complete and the Phase III portion initiated next quarter. I'm pleased to share that the IDMC has completed its review and selected the Phase III dose, 80 milligrams subcutaneously every 4 weeks. We hold fast track, orphan drug designation and EMA PRIME designations for Pove in Membrana. Stepping briefly outside of renal, on Pove in myasthenia gravis. I'm also pleased to share that the 30 patient Phase II proof-of-concept study is on track to complete enrollment by the end of this year.
Recall this study evaluates 80 milligrams and 240-milligram doses of Pove versus placebo for 12 weeks.
Turning now to inaxaplin in AMKD. On AMPLITUDE, our pivotal Phase II/III study in AMKD, we completed enrollment of the interim analysis cohort in September of last year. and are on track to complete full enrollment by the end of this year. The interim analysis will be conducted following 48 weeks of treatment, and we remain on track to share these IA results in early 2027. If positive, we would be positioned to file for potential accelerated approval in the U.S. thereafter. Amplified is our Phase Ib basket study of inaxaplin in AMKD patients with either lower proteinuria or AMKD patients with diabetes, expanded patient populations not studied in amplitude. The AMPLIFIED study has completed enrollment and dosing and we expect to share results this fall.
Lastly, in the renal portfolio is VX-407 in ADPKD, or autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Our GLOW Phase II study has completed enrollment. This is a proof-of-concept study with up to 52 weeks of treatment. We are excited about the potential for VX-407 in ADPKD and look forward to sharing more information as dosing continues and the data matures. Let me now touch on type 1 diabetes. We had very constructive meetings with the FDA following our voluntary pause in order to conduct a manufacturing analysis of absumylacell. As we shared on our Q1 call, we have resumed dosing patients in the Zimi Phase I/II/III study.
The new news today is that the FDA has cleared the IND for VX-017, our typo or universal donor cell product. VX-017 has a similar target product profile to zimislecel, but is designed for people of all blood types and we expect the VX-017 Phase I/II study to initiate in the near term. by designing and bringing to market VX-017, another allogeneic off-the-shelf, glucose responsive insulin producing fully differentiated islet cell therapy, in this case, for any blood type, we anticipate doubling our market opportunity from about 60,000 to about 120,000 patients.
A silver lining to the pause we took in the zimislecel Type A program is that the type 0 program time differential versus the mile cell has shortened. Type O is making rapid progress. And thus, we are considering options to further streamline our regulatory strategy and commercialization approach. We expect to provide updated T1D plans, including time lines later this year. We also continue to progress our serial innovation work focused on improved immunosuppression and hyperimmune programs to make our potentially one-and-done curative therapy available to even more patients with type 1 diabetes.
Let me close with a few words on our announced acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, which we detailed in a separate call last month. Crinetics is an excellent strategic fit for Vertex with its focus on serious endocrine diseases, high unmet need, validated targets and well-understood causal biology as well as a strong people and culture fit we believe the 2 lead assets, Palonify and Acumelnent together represent a peak sales opportunity of about $5 billion. Both are small molecules that address serious diseases for patients treated by a concentrated group of specialized endocrinologists, this fits directly within Vertex's proven efficient specialty commercial model.
We enter this transaction from a position of strength. We view CF as a long-duration franchise with sustained growth. We continue to expect both CASGEVY and JOURNAVX to be multibillion-dollar assets. and we anticipate our emerging renal franchise could one day rival CF in revenue. In addition, we have a broad and deep pipeline in earlier stages of development, the Crinetics acquisition will add to this innovation pipeline and enhance our revenue growth and long-term earnings profile by adding a fifth commercial pillar in rare endocrine diseases. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter, and we really look forward to welcoming the talent Crinectics team to Vertex.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Duncan for a commercial update.
Thanks very much, Reshma. Our commercial story this quarter is one of building momentum across each of our franchises, supported by the appropriate investments to drive growth. We are very excited for the close of the Crinetics acquisition and for Vertex to establish a new pillar in specialty endocrine diseases like acromegaly, CAH and Cushing's syndrome. Crinetics Q2 results were excellent, with strong growth in Palsonify revenue and patients treated, but I will hold any further comments until after the deal closes.
So tonight, let me start with CF. CF continues to perform very well. Global CF revenue grew 11% year-over-year in the second quarter with balanced growth across the U.S. and internationally and continued strength from both ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA. ALYFTREK performance has been excellent and crossed another significant milestone, exceeding $1 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. In the U.S., we continue to see patients initiating ALYFTREK who are new to therapy, returning to therapy and patients switching from TRIKAFTA.
The majority of ALYFTREK revenue continues to come from these TRIKAFTA switch patients, which reflects the benefits of ALYFTREK and our success establishing ALYFTREK as the new standard of care. We're pleased with the pace at which physicians and patients are embracing ALYFTREK given its improved sweat chloride profile and once daily dosing. We've seen accelerated uptake of ALYFTREK from the recent approvals in rare mutations as well as patients rolling off our open-label extension studies.
Outside the U.S., the ALYFTREK European launches remain very strong with no requirement for augmented liver monitoring in the EU, we are seeing rapid uptake by patients in Europe, transitioning from TRIKAFTA or one of our other CFTR modulators. In fact, in Germany and the U.K., more than 1 in 3 eligible CF patients are now benefiting from ALYFTREK. Globally, the CF growth drivers for the remainder of 2026 are clear: continued a ALYFTREK uptake, the label expansion into rare mutations, younger patients and additional geographies.
Shifting to heme and CASGEVY, where the momentum continues to build. During the second quarter, we delivered $76 million in CASGEVY revenue, reflecting approximately 75% sequential growth versus quarter 1, 2026 and over 150% year-over-year growth. This was in line with our expectations based on our visibility into patient scheduling patterns. The strength of the CASGEVY franchise continues to build new data on CASGEVY at EHA with simultaneous publication in the New England Journal of Medicine demonstrated its transformative potential in pediatric patients as well as durable benefits, reinforcing the importance of early intervention to prevent the complications of sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia in children.
Stemming from this compelling data last month, save became CASGEVY and only gene therapy FDA approved to treat children as young as 2 years old in both sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. CASGEVY received supplemental approval in the U.S. in a record 53 days post filing, and our first pediatric patient has already initiated therapy and conducted cell collection. Outside the U.S., CASGEVY regulatory submissions in the 5 to 11 age group are now complete in Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.
On the reimbursement front, we are seeing strong trends in initiations in Germany after reaching a historic reimbursement agreement there as well as continued strong uptake in the U.K., Italy and the Middle East the negotiations of sustainable access agreements. The CASGEVY story continues to be one of an increasingly robust pipeline of patients initiating the treatment journey. There were more CASGEVY infusions in the first half of 2026 than in all of 2025. Second quarter 2026 was also the third sequential quarter with more than 100 patient initiations, which enhances our visibility to continued growth for the rest of this year and early 2027 as patients continue to move through cell collection, editing and infusion.
Quarter-to-quarter variability in CASGEVY revenue will continue and reflects the timing of patient infusions as people choose to receive their infusions when it best suits them. As we look forward, we expect continued CASGEVY momentum with the pipeline of patients at every stage continuing to build. CASGEVY is well positioned to contribute meaningfully to our $500 million non-CF revenue goal this year and to achieve its stand-alone multibillion dollar potential.
Turning to genetics in moderate-to-severe acute pain, where our launch continues to gain traction. In the second quarter, JOURNAVX generated $50 million in revenue, reflecting sequential revenue growth of approximately 70% and sequential prescription growth of approximately 45% versus quarter 1, 2026. Unpacking Q2 performance, revenue was positively impacted by channel build after we've seen a drawdown in quarter 1. At this stage in an acute product launch, we continue to expect some quarterly volatility in inventory build and drawdown as full line wholesalers and retail channel buying patterns normalize to reflect formulary adoption, physician awareness and seasonality in elective surgeries.
We are building a pain franchise for the long term and are focused on the following 4 critical markets of success: prescription growth, breadth and depth of prescribers, the addition of JOURNAVX to hospital and IDN pathways and broad payer coverage. These are the building blocks of a sustainable, long-term, multibillion-dollar business. We are extremely pleased with the prescription growth we continue to build, which is ahead of our forecast for 2026. The breadth and depth of prescriptions across a wide range of settings of care as well as the clinical impact of JOURNAVX continue to be very strong and all go well for the long-term growth of JOURNAVX in acute pain.
The consequence of this rapid prescription growth is that we are seeing greater use of the PSP program than we forecast as securing unrestricted payer access and physician education catches up with prescription growth. Let me break down what I mean by that. At this point, we have a total of 260 million lives covered out of a total possible of approximately 320 million. Of the 260 million covered lives, 180 million of them have unrestricted coverage. This means that there are 60 million lives yet to be covered and about 80 million lives who have coverage, but with some form of restriction, making some of them eligible for the PSP program.
These restrictions are usually very minor in nature, such as a 14-day quantity limit or a prior authorization to indication. As we continue to educate physicians and their office staff about the quantity limits and prior authorizations, we expect the PSP to be triggered less frequently and therefore, more revenue to be recognized. Let me now provide you with some more details on prescriptions, prescribers and access before concluding our thinking on the PSP program and gross to net.
In terms of prescriptions, quarter 2, 2026 JOURNAVX prescriptions totaled approximately 535,000 and just over 900,000 for the first half of 2026.The prescriptions continue to be split roughly 50-50 between the hospital and retail channels. In both channels, monthly prescriptions were approximately 50,000 in January and doubled to approximately 100,000 in each channel in June. In terms of prescribers, we added approximately 18,000 new HCP prescribers to JOURNAVX in Q2 26 and are pleased that JOURNAVX is now on 1,400 hospital and 130 IDN pathways in terms of formulary, protocol or order sets.
These are important metrics as we seek to convert practices and continue to embed the use of JOURNAVX among our target physicians. We've also made further progress with respect to AX. We recently signed agreements to expand reimbursed access to JOURNAVX with 2 additional Medicare Part D plans, effective from July 1. With these additions, 3 of the big 4 Medicare Part D plans now provide covered access alongside the 3 large commercial PBMs.
As mentioned, this brings the total covered lives for JOURNAVX to approximately 260 million out of a total possible of 320 million and within that, approximately 180 million lives with unrestricted access. Our goal continues to be to ensure the prescribing experience for physicians and patients is as seamless as possible in a market where the delivery of the medicine is highly time-sensitive.
We will continue to work to educate physicians to navigate the minimal quantity limits and prior authorizations that exist and secure ever broader coverage. In the meantime, we will maintain the PSP program so that patients who are prescribed JOURNAVX can get it. We continue to see this as a strategic choice as we seek to convert physician practices away from decades of reliance on opioids and to ongoing and sustained use of JOURNAVX for many years to come.
As a result, we continue to expect gross to net to normalize in line with other branded oral medicines, but now in the first half of 2027. To conclude on pain, we also continue to be on track to exceed our goal of more than tripling the 550,000 prescriptions and more than tripling revenue from 2025 into 2026 as well as delivering more than $500 million in revenue from CASGEVY and JOURNAVX combined in 2026.
Let me conclude with an update on our commercial readiness in renal and specifically Pove and IgAN. WIth the FDA's acceptance of our BLA and the November 30 PDUFA date, we are in the final stages of commercial launch preparation. We're investing in our renal franchise and the nephrology community for the long term, given our innovative pipeline of multiple potentially transformative kidney disease medications that address the underlying causes of serious renal conditions.
Our goal is for Pove to be physicians first choice among disease-modifying therapies for IgAN and we know from our market research and from nephrologist feedback that physicians are looking for treatments that meaningfully and rapidly reduce proteinuria have a favorable tolerability profile and offer a seamless treatment experience from access through patient support to convenient dosing. We believe Pove has the winning trifecta of efficacy, tolerability and ease of use for patients and physicians alike. With dual BAF April inhibition, Pove has clear best-in-class potential and delivers effectively on all the needs we've heard from the community in research and advisory boards making it the ideal first choice after baseline therapy with ACE arbs and SGLT2s.
We have completed the hiring of our renal field force of whom about 90% have nephrology experience and was built with the breadth of our renal pipeline in mind. We anticipate that we will have the largest field force among the novel April or April Bath therapies for IgAN our payer conversations are also proceeding well. In the U.S., approximately 70% of patients with IgAN have commercial coverage from our engagements with payers, their awareness of IgAN and the new BA April inhibitors is high. pay us understand the unmet need, have a good understanding of the KDIGO guidelines and how the new therapies fit into treatment pathways.
Payers are also very aware of the strength of the Pove Phase III interim analysis data and November 30 PDUFA date. Our market access teams continue to actively engage with payers to prepare for the upcoming launch of Pove. Additionally, we will provide robust patient support programs drawing on our decades of experience in CF. Pove and IgAN is the first component of our emerging renal franchise, and we're excited to bring it to nephrologists and to their patients. we believe Pove's trifecta of efficacy, tolerability and ease of use delivers exactly what nephrologists are seeking.
And just as we've done for over a decade in CF, though the success will be driven by a field force delivering a high science cell fueled by a potentially best-in-class product, broad reimbursement and robust high-quality patient programs. We are very excited to commercialize Pove and IgAN and begin building a multibillion-dollar renal franchise at Vertex.
I'll now turn the call over to Charlie to review the financials.
Thanks, Duncan. As Reshma noted, Vertex's second quarter results demonstrate our consistent strong performance and attractive growth profile. Second quarter 2026 total revenue of $3.3 billion increased 12% year-over-year with growth balanced between the U.S. and international markets. As expected, Q2 2026 revenue growth reflects an approximate 170 basis point benefit from foreign exchange rates. Q2 '26 Global CF revenue grew 11% year-over-year, and new disease areas also contributed with CASGEVY delivering $76 million compared to $30 million in Q2 of 2025 and JOURNAVX revenue of $50 million compared to $12 million in Q2 of 2025.
As a reminder, Q2 25 results also included $21 million of collaboration revenue. Q2 '26 U.S. CF revenue grew 9% year-over-year, led by strong volume growth from ALYFTREK uptake, continued performance from TRIKAFTA and higher realized net price. Outside the U.S., CF revenue grew 12% year-over-year, driven by strong ALYFTREK launches timing of orders in certain geographies as well as the benefit from FX.
Note that global CF revenue growth for the first half of 2026 was 8%, including the benefit of prior year U.S. price increases and foreign exchange. We expect both of these factors to contribute less to growth in the second half of the year. Our second quarter 2026 gross margin was 85.6%, and expected sequential step down from Q1 of '26. This step down reflects the impact of product mix as well as manufacturing network investments in various products. As our new products, particularly CASGEVY, increase in revenue contribution with higher cost of goods sold than our small molecule CF products, we continue to expect full year gross margin of just under 86%, roughly in line with this quarter's result. The impact from product mix and manufacturing network investment costs will be more pronounced in the second half than they were in the first half of 2026.
Turning to operating expenses. We continue to invest appropriately given the attractive opportunity presented by our ongoing and near-term launches as well as our attractive mid- and late-stage pipeline. Second quarter non-GAAP R&D expense of $889 million increased 1% year-over-year with steady progress across multiple Phase III studies and the earlier stage pipeline. Non-GAAP SG&A expense of $520 million increased 45% year-over-year, driven primarily by commercial investment split roughly evenly between pain and renal.
We also recorded $21 million in acquired IP R&D expense in the quarter. Note that while R&D continues to account for nearly 2/3 of our operating expenses, the modest growth rate reflects that we are in a period where we can redeploy dollars from programs that wind down to fund programs that are new or scaling up. In contrast, much of our commercial spending is to build new businesses and thus is incremental, as reflected in the higher year-over-year growth rates when compared to R&D spending.
Our second quarter 2026 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 21.1%, including some onetime expenses. Year-to-date, our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 20.4%, within our guidance range of 19.5% to 20.5%. Our second quarter 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.73 represents 5% growth versus prior year, reflecting strong revenue growth as well as investments in our pipeline and commercial capabilities.
Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with approximately $13.6 billion in cash and investments. During the second quarter, we deployed approximately $455 million to repurchase roughly 1 million shares. This activity reflects our ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining the flexibility to act on strategic growth opportunities. Of course, a top priority for capital deployment remains investing in innovation as evidenced by our recent announcement to acquire Crinectics for approximately $8.8 billion net of cash acquired.
Now turning to guidance. Given our strong first half performance and the momentum across the business, we are raising our full year 2026 total revenue guidance to a range of $13.1 billion to $13.2 billion, 2026 revenue guidance reflects continued strong performance from the CF franchise, including ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA as well as growing year-over-year contributions from CASGEVY and JOURNAVX. We continue to expect revenue of $500 million or greater from our non-CF products, and our outlook also continues to include an expected 150 basis point benefit from foreign exchange net our hedging program.
As I previously mentioned, we continue to expect full year gross margin of just under 86%. On operating expenses, we are reiterating our combined non-GAAP operating expense guidance of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion, though we now expect to be at the high end of that range. This reflects continued investment in our late-stage clinical pipeline and the commercial infrastructure and activities that support our new launches and revenue diversification. We continue to expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for the full year 2026.
I would note that today's guidance does not yet reflect the pending Crinetics acquisition, which is expected to close in the third quarter. Given the anticipated timing, we expect the packed 2026 revenue and non-GAAP operating expenses to be relatively modest, and we will provide updated guidance for 2026 around the time of closing. As a reminder, we like to fund the transaction through a combination of cash on hand and proceeds from a $4.5 billion term loan, and we expect the transaction to become accretive to non-GAAP operating income in 2029.
In summary, Vertex delivered strong second quarter results. Our commercial launches and diversification are gaining momentum, and we continue to invest with discipline in innovation and commercialization. Over our financial performance and outlook remain compelling, with expanding CF leadership, human pain scaling, renal on the doorstep of launch and the addition of a fifth pillar in specialty endocrine through the pending Crinetics acquisition, Vertex is exceptionally well positioned for continued growth. our high success rate in R&D and our disciplined specialty commercial model allow us to maintain industry-leading margins even as we step up investments to support our launches and pipeline.
With this unique profile, we are well positioned to continue expanding our impact for patients, investors and all stakeholders. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress across multiple disease areas with key upcoming milestones detailed on Slide 19.
I'll now ask Susie to begin the Q&A period.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question for today will come from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
2. Question Answer
Two for me. One is you announced that the Phase II/III OLYMPUS study for Pove in PM is going to move to Phase II with an 80-milligram dose every 4 weeks. Can you frame what signal this was based on and whether you're the DSMB or what you are the DSMB saw on the Phase IIb portion to move forward? And then on the pain front, it was really nice to see the progress here. Maybe help us understand where the bottlenecks lie now or what needs to be worked on with regard to formulary as well as the payer dynamics as you look at co-pay, et cetera.
Sure thing, Alvin. Let me kick us off with the first question, which is about Polvinmembranas. The Phase II is complete, the Phase III was already initiated, you might recall, a couple of months ago as we designed it as a seamless Phase II/III. The DSMB was asked to base their decision and it was their decision because we do not have access to the unblinded data to look at on efficacy PLA2R, which is the biomarker equivalent in membranous as GDI A1 is to IgAN.
Of course, they had full access to the safety results as they made their decision. I suppose in many ways, it's not surprising that they pick the 80-milligram dose given the Ruby III results. where you could see that the 80 milligrams had a very nice reduction in PLA2R, but that's how the decision was made, studies well on its Phase III portion, and we look forward to getting that study enrolled and completed. Duncan, I'm going to turn it over to you for a little commentary on JOURNAVX scripts and what more we're working on.
So as you know, our goal with JOURNAVX is to fundamentally transform how pain is treated and to move physician practices away from decades of reliance on opioids. In terms of our progress, we're very pleased with the prescription numbers that we're seeing, also very pleased with the increased number of hospitals that have adopted genetics, now 1,400 or so with 130 IDNs, having it on formularies and we have also now secured 2 additional Medicare Part D plans to cover genetics starting from July 1.
So overall, our progress is very well and going very well. And I would add that those prescriptions are coming from a broad range of physician types and being used in a broad range of pain types consistent with our label. In terms of the payer side and access, we're very pleased with the coverage that we've secured to date, 200 -- 260 million lives, and that's ahead of those 2 Medicare Part D plans coming in.
And I would say we have obviously more work to do to secure the final elements of access for generics. And we also have to make sure that those patients whose physicians might have, say, a quantity limit are able to navigate that in order to ensure the patient can secure access. In the meantime, we have the PSP program in place and anticipate that we'll continue to see prescriptions transition to increasing growth in revenue in the second half of 2026.
And indeed, as we've communicated before that our gross to net will ultimately normalize at the same level as our oral branded medicines in the pharmaceutical arena. So we're very happy with the progress. We have a little bit more work to do, but we are very happy with where we're at right now in terms of physician adoption, payer coverage and hospital usage.
The next question will come from Jeff Meacham with Citibank.
Have 2 quick ones. The first one is CF on A2A or the other assets in Phase I, what are some of the clinical attributes you're looking for? I wasn't sure if you're looking for perhaps a not only better treatment effect or if there is a potential to not need liver monitoring, for example, in future combos.
Second question on JOURNAVX. You guys have had substantial discussions with payers, hospital systems, physicians on acute pain. But in these conversations, have you gotten any perspectives or context on DNA like what the clinical profile needs to show as we look to the data end of the year, beginning of next year, what the access and reimbursement could look like is setting?
Sure thing, Jeff. Let me take the second question first. On your Namics, we have been hyper-focused on dynamics and acute pain to make sure that we get all of those reimbursement contracts done and get access. So I think it would be just very fair to say, we've spent all of our time to be focused on acute pain. We'll have more to say on where we are with DPN, the data, what payers are looking for, what doctors are looking for, et cetera, in the coming months. But for here and now, it's acute pain.
On VX-828 and the next-gen molecule, so just to give you all of the numbers, VX-828 is the first of the next Next-gen. The second and third are 581, VX-581 and VX-272. We are looking for potential improvement in efficacy, i.e., more people who can get down to less than 30 millimoles. And of course, we're looking for safety as well. So the monitoring will depend on what the results in the clinical trial are. So sure, there's opportunity for monitoring to be different with this 828 program.
It just depends on what the actual results are through the clinical trial program. Last thing to say, once daily dosing, really good-looking DDIs as well as other drug-like properties remain really important as I mentioned in my prepared remarks.
SP1 The next question will come from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
Maybe for Reshma. I'm curious if you expect to see material differentiation on eGFR across the new IgAN products like Posy and its competitors? And if so, over what time horizon do you think any differentiation on that endpoint would become apparent?
Sure thing, Jess. As we've discussed before, in IgAN in particular, but you could say this for homogeneous pregeneric kidney diseases in general. Good reductions in proteinuria should, based on everything we know result in stabilization of GFR. I expect that to be the case with April BAF inhibitors as well. I think so that your question is asking a very important second point. And to me, the most important point. What is the differentiation we can expect between various molecules if you have more reduction in proteinuria or hematuria or in the case of IgA nephropathy, GDIGA on, these insighting antibodies.
And I think for that, the answer is it's really about time to ESRD. That's to say time to dialysis, transplantation or death. And I do expect that the medicine that has the stronger reductions in proteinuria the medicine that gets more patients to less than 0.5 or 0.3 better improvements in hematuria and GDIgA1 are more likely to have an improved profile when it comes to that ultimate endpoint.
Proteinuria, 1-year GFR, 2-year GFR, these are all endpoints on the way to the ultimate endpoint. And I think that's where you'll see the real differentiation.
Your next question will come from Cory Kasimov with Evercore ISI.
Wanted to ask about inaxaplin in the AMPLITUDE study? And what kind of data would be necessary in that interim analysis to file for accelerated approval? Basically, like what constitutes the win with this first data look .
Sure thing. Cory, I think you're asking about AMPLITUDE. So the core study that's now in Phase III in patients with 2 APOL1 alleles, moderate-to-heavy proteinuria and depressed GFR. We were really pleased and remain very pleased that the agency has provided and we have an agreement with the agency for a potential accelerated approval based on the primary endpoint at the time of the IA, which is 1 year GFR. So that's what our agreement is based on. Obviously, we're also going to look at the proteinuria, but the agreement with the agency for the potential to file for accelerated approval based on the interim analysis is 1-year GFR. .
Next question will come from Brian Abrahams with RBC Capital Markets.
Congrats on the quarter. On pain, we've seen some data published recently from another NAV 18. And I'm just curious how you see the acute pain dynamics playing out with additional entrants into the market potentially? And then secondarily, just on Zimi. Just wondering if you could talk about the potential impact to launch timing if you do end up sinking the filing with 017 .
Yes. Thanks for the kind words, Brian. Maybe I'll do the pain one first and then come on to type 1 diabetes. I did see the publication. And maybe, Brian, what I'd say is that Ever since Vertex published VX-150, which you'll remember was the molecule circa 2017 or so. We saw a spike in others following our footsteps and pursuing NAV 18 as a target. And what I'll say is that we decided not to advance 150, VX-150 because we didn't think it had, as I described at the time, the perfect drug-like molecule properties that we were looking for and we bypassed 150 in favor of what is now susetrigene or VX-548.
So we know the space very well. We know the molecule well, and we know that every time we publish a patent, there is a slew of followers. Maybe if you say, well, what's the takeaway from that, I think that there is a high appetite in the biopharma industry to make nonopioids. There is high unmet need for non-opioid effective pain medicines that have not only the right efficacy, but the right safety tolerability, drug-like properties profile. And I really like where we are well on the market with Gernavics, and I'm very much looking forward to the possibility of NAV1718 combination. And I've never felt better in Vertex history for the fact that may come to pass for us to be able to bring that to the clinic.
Switching then to the type 1 diabetes program. So let me just say what I said in my prepared remarks. I may have gotten a little quick there. The zimislecel program is in Phase I, II, III, back up in dosing. And because it's a type A program, it serves about 60,000 people in the U.S. and Europe. The 017 program because type O has the potential to serve 120,000 people because it's the universal donor type out.
And now what we're trying to do is see if we can't get the type O program to go even faster and bring that program out either first or very close behind. That's what we're working on in terms of both the regulatory approach and the commercial approach. I don't have a time line for you today, but we should be able to tell you our exact plans with time lines in the back half of this year. But I am very excited about the opportunity to perhaps bring type O out first or very, very close behind.
Your next question will come from Evan Seigerman with BMO .
From the progress, so you've maintained the expectation for at least $500 million of non-CF revenue this year, while CASGEVY and JOURNAVX delivered roughly $125 million this quarter. So as you think about the path to this target, should we expect that the majority of the upside comes from accelerating patient starts with CASGEVY, continued growth with JOURNAVX or kind of a relatively balanced contribution from both franchises.
Evan, I'll ask Charlie, if he wants to make any additional comments on our guidance on the $500 million.
Yes, Evan, thanks. As you pointed out, so far in the first half of the year, CASGEVY and JOURNAVX combined delivered about $200 million in revenue. So we're well on our way to achieving our target of $500 million plus in that first half. CASGEVY has been a bigger contributor than JOURNAVX, but I'm not willing to give further color on the balance of the year other than to say we're very confident in getting to that $500 million less. .
The next question will come from Michael Yee with UBS.
For the question. I guess the IgAN competitor data to your EGFR data is hot off the press, and it's out there on the tape, and you can see that the approved product has essentially a stabilization of EGFR, if not baseline. So to what extent Reshma that you have an approval coming up June should we think about comparing the 2, either from a launch perspective or perhaps given the strong numbers that they're putting up, it speaks to the significant market opportunity and you look can get equivalent share. Maybe just talk a little bit about the data that the competitor is putting up and how you think about your launch?
Sure thing. Mike, the -- I did just see the eGFR data, but I've just seen the top line number. And as you say, it shows a stabilization right around 0. That is what we should expect given the proteinuria reduction. So that seems very much in line. With regard to what it means for the povetacicept IgAN program, I would say all the more reason if anybody needed a little bit more conviction, you can certainly look at these data that were presented today, look at the proteinuria reduction, look at the GFR and we confirm for yourself that significant reductions in proteinuria should and have resulted in GFR stabilization.
So it makes a lot of sense to me. For what I see for PO I see us putting up very strong numbers on proteinuria, numerically, the best out there, 52% change from baseline in terms of proteinuria reduction, 70-plus percent reductions in hematuria and 70-plus percent reductions in GDIG1. That bodes very well for Pove. And then I'll emphasize, Mike, the patient centric attributes of delivery once monthly small volume, 0.46 via an auto-injector. And I think when you put all of that together, real excitement for me for what Pove bring to patients once the PDUFA date comes and goes, and we have the opportunity to launch.
The next question will come from Tazeen Ahmad with Bank of America.
Are you still planning on presenting additional data from the Rainier study this year? And if so, what level of data? And where could that be? And then secondly, for Pove and GMG, it's becoming an increasingly competitive space. So how are you thinking about what additional benefit your drug could provide into this space either with efficacy, safety or dosing frequency?
Yes, on RAINIER. We are planning to present data. The conferences don't like it when we suggest the name when submissions have been made, but acceptances haven't come through yet. So maybe I'll just leave it at, yes, we plan to present the full RAINIER A data set. We're looking forward to do so. I'll say at a fall conference, and I'll leave it to your imagination for which one.
On GMG and Pove, this one is really exciting. And you gave me 3 options for why we're excited about Pove and GMG efficacy, safety or patient benefits administration all 3. This is another one of those trifectas that Duncan has talked about on efficacy. There is another molecule, a wild-type take, so not engineered for optimal potency, binding affinity or tissue distribution. That has already shown substantial efficacy benefit.
And remember, that's a wild-type tacky compared to Pub, which is an engineered take. So that's on efficacy. On safety, Pove does not need to have a cycle on and a cycle off. That gives real benefit on safety, but that also has the secondary benefit on efficacy because you don't have that off period where the autoantibodies are allowed to return. And the third is same thing, auto-injector. We have to figure out whether it's the 80 or 240, but in either case, it will be auto-injector, once-monthly at-home low-volume dosing. So of your options, I expect Pove to be better across the board on all 3 dimensions.
The next question will come from Phil Nadu with TD Cowen.
There's a lot of focus on the upcoming data from one of your competitors where we're going to get incremental sweat chloride reductions above TRIKAFTA we're curious to hear Vertex's depending on how you're going to interpret that data? Is there a level of sweat chloride reduction that would get your attention or Reshma as you've suggested in the prepared remarks, is it more about simply the proportion of patients who get to less than 30 millimoles per liter and the exact reduction maybe isn't as meaningful because it can be influenced by things like baseline characteristics?
Yes. Phil, I think you have it right on our perspective. Where we sit today with Ally, a lift track. We already know we can get 2/3 of patients to less than 30. That's that normal or carrier threshold. And furthermore, if you think about as all physiologic parameters do, there is a calcium distribution around that median sweat chloride 30. If you superimpose across all age groups, the lift data on the carrier data, more than 75% of people across age groups overlap that distribution.
So with those kind of data, I think that the bar is exceptionally high. and rests on getting more patients to less than 30%. That is the mark and that's the mark that we or anyone else has to hit in order to have a competitive medicine. And of course, it goes out saying it has to be safe, it has to be well tolerated. That has to have good DDIs, it has to be once daily. But on pure efficacy, it has to be a molecule that gets more patients to less than 30 in terms of sweat chloride.
The next question will come from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Another ONE on inaxaplin. I was just wondering if you can help set expectations for the upcoming AMPLIFY Phase II trial? And then how to think about any read-through to AMPLITUDE?
Yes. So AMPLIFY is the study that's Phase II. It's the expanded AM KD population -- by that, I mean, it's the population with 2 APOL1 alleles. And in one arm of the basket study, it's 2APL,-1 alleles diabetes and in the other arm, it's 2 APOL1 alleles, and let's call it, modest proteinuria, so low-grade proteinuria. The way I would frame it up is the study is completed. We are on track for us to be able to share results this fall.
And what I'd be looking for and looking to understand is and we derive benefit on proteinuria when you have very modest pitineria to start with. So this is 0.2 to point grams of protein as opposed to 0.7 grams and above. And of course, it all comes down to what the mean and try baseline level of protein is. Or in the case of diabetes, can we alter the proteinuria when you have second kidney disease involved.
These are questions worth studying, but there are clearly different populations than amplitude, which is why we specifically did not include them in the Phase II original study of axle and equally why we didn't include them in the Phase III study called Amplitude. So we're super excited to look at these results. We're going to learn a lot and I'm very, very, very happy, and I think you'll see the wisdom of our approach, given what has happened in the field for others to keep these populations, which are expanded populations separate and look at each one individually in this basket amplified study.
The next question will come from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
Just maybe a question for Duncan, if you want you want to help with the prescription trends here for JOURNAVX, so obviously, prescription growth is very strong. But how should we think about the prescribing behavior in terms of how many days of therapy physicians are writing? Has it changed at all in last few quarters or so because it does seem like you have good access, you have good prescription, but probably this is probably a missing piece, which could improve here.
It's to answer your question specifically, as I think we've communicated before, in hospitals, the prescription duration is around about 5 days or so. in retail, it's around about 12, 14 days. So on average, you net out at around about 10 or 11 days or so for each generic prescription. And candidly, that dynamic has not changed since the launch because it's really driven by the dynamics of the institution that the patients in rather than anything else. So to answer your question simply, those are the numbers, and it has not changed over the last few months.
The last question will come from Eli Merrill with Barclays.
So in terms of the DM1 program, what would be good data at the data update in the second half? And how are you thinking about it in the context of the broader competitive landscape in DM1?
Sure, ElI. Maybe I can take that one. In DM1, as you know, there hasn't been a clear correlation between the various endpoints that others in the field have looked at, albeit with different approaches. What people have tended to do in their Phase II studies to get an early read is look at splicing, a functional endpoint called vHOT and another functional endpoint called QMT. We had to sort of how long does it take to open close your hand and QMT is a measure of muscle function.
And what I would say is that of all of those, splicing is an important one, and we certainly are looking at splicing and these measures of muscle function are also something that we're looking at. The reason I like this approach compared to anything else has more to do with mechanism of action. And that has to do with the fact that it's an oligo, which others are also trying but it's an oligo linked to a circular peptide to a nuclear localizing domain peptide which we believe will allow it to get into the cell and get into the nucleus where it has to do its work.
So that is a plus. And I would also say some of the other programs in order to get into the cell have used mechanisms that have some safety tolerability concerns, and that has not been occurred through the circular peptide program that we use. So therefore, the efficacy endpoints in Phase II splicing, and we will also look at these QMT and vHOT endpoints, albeit in small numbers of patients.
And that will conclude our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. A replay will be available shortly after the call concludes by dialing 1 (855) 669-9658 or 1 (412) 317-0088 using replay access code 10208186 and thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Strong Q2: $3.3B revenue (+12% YoY), pipeline momentum, Pove BLA accepted and Crinetics deal pending close.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Total revenue: $3.3B (+12% YoY)
- CF revenue: +11% YoY; ALYFTREK crossed $1B H1 sales
- New franchises: CASGEVY $76M, JOURNAVX $50M in Q2
- Profitability: Non‑GAAP EPS $4.73 (+5%); gross margin 85.6%
- Balance sheet: $13.6B cash; $455M share buybacks in Q2
🎯 What Management Says
- CF strategy: Focus on next‑gen modulators only if they can beat ALYFTREK by getting more patients to carrier sweat‑chloride levels (<30 mmol/L) with once‑daily dosing and clean drug‑drug interaction profiles.
- Renal push: Pove BLA accepted (IgA nephropathy) with Nov 30 PDUFA; positioning as potential best‑in‑class on efficacy, tolerability and once‑monthly auto‑injector dosing.
- T1D & M&A: IND cleared for universal‑donor islet product VX‑017 (expands addressable T1D patients ~60K→120K); acquiring Crinetics to add rare endocrine pillar, deal to close Q3.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Revenue guide: Raised FY2026 to $13.1–$13.2B; expects >$500M from non‑CF products
- Margins & tax: Full‑year gross margin ~just under 86%; non‑GAAP tax rate 19.5–20.5%
- OpEx: Non‑GAAP operating expense guidance $5.65–$5.75B (now likely at high end)
- Acquisition: Crinetics not yet in guidance; funded by cash + $4.5B term loan; accretive to non‑GAAP operating income by 2029
❓ Analyst Q&A
- CF R&D focus: Analysts pressed on what beats ALYFTREK — management reiterated the key metric is proportion of patients reaching <30 mmol/L sweat chloride plus safety and DDI profile.
- Renal details: DSMB chose 80mg dose for membranous (OLYMPUS); questions on eGFR differentiation resolved by emphasizing proteinuria reduction as the predictor of long‑term GFR benefit.
- Pain & access: JOURNAVX scripts rising (~535k Q2); coverage ~260M lives with 180M unrestricted; PSP use and gross‑to‑net normalization remain execution items into 2027 H1.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Verdict: Vertex delivered strong commercial execution and raised revenue guidance while advancing multiple near‑term catalysts (Pove PDUFA Nov 30, VX‑828 data H2, AMPLITUDE interim early‑2027, VX‑017 start). Short‑term investments and the Crinetics close may compress operating leverage, but the company is visibly diversifying away from CF toward durable multi‑pillar growth.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Conference Call to announce the acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Susie Lisa. Please go ahead.
Thanks, Chuck. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on short notice for this exciting announcement. I'm Susie Lisa, and as Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, it's my pleasure to welcome you to this conference call to discuss Vertex's acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals. Making prepared remarks on today's call, we have Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, Vertex's CEO and President; Duncan McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer; and Charlie Wagner, Chief Operating and Financial Officer. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. The call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.
We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements, including, without limitation, those regarding Vertex's marketed medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, beta thalassemia and acute pain, the proposed acquisition of Crinetics and the expected benefits of the transaction. The commercial potential of PALSONIFY and the clinical potential of Atumelnant and Crinetics other pipeline assets, the expected timing of closing and associated financing and Vertex's future financial performance are based on management's current assumptions. Actual outcomes and events could differ materially.
I would also note that select financial guidance we discussed this evening is presented on a non-GAAP basis. Please consult our forward-looking statement on Slide 2 and see our filings for more information.
I'll now turn the call over to Reshma.
Thank you, Susie, and good afternoon, everyone. We are excited to announce that we've entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Crinetics Pharmaceuticals for $85 per share in cash in a transaction with a total equity value of about $10 billion or $8.8 billion net of estimated cash acquired. Crinetics is an excellent strategic fit for Vertex with its focus on serious diseases in specialty markets with significant unmet need, well-understood causal human biology and potentially best-in-class medicines that could deliver transformative benefit to patients.
Crinetics has 2 compelling derisked potential best-in-class specialty endocrine assets, PALSONIFY in the early days of its U.S. commercial launch and Atumelnant in pivotal development for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, or CAH, and in Phase II for Cushing's syndrome. There are additional preclinical and clinical programs in the Crinetics pipeline that we won't highlight today, but we will discuss post closing. We believe that these assets have a combined peak sales potential of more than $5 billion.
PALSONIFY is the first and only once-daily oral therapy for adults with acromegaly. PALSONIFY is already FDA approved and generating strong early momentum in the U.S. post an October 2025 launch. More recently, it was approved by the EMA. We see blockbuster potential for Atumelnant. Atumelnant is a once-daily oral ACTH receptor antagonist currently in Phase III development for CAH. Atumelnant has additional potential in ACTH-dependent Cushing's syndrome, another rare endocrinology disease. It is currently in Phase II development for this indication. Across the indications for Atumelnant, we see multibillion-dollar potential. Given the significant unmet medical need in acromegaly, CAH and Cushing's along with the best-in-class potential of both PALSONIFY and Atumelnant for the treatment of these conditions, we see the Crinetics acquisition accelerating Vertex's revenue growth and diversification as well as enhancing our long-term earnings profile.
We are truly excited by what the Crinetics team has built in the endocrinology space over the last 18 years. Their world-class R&D capabilities are focused on their [ G-protein ] coupled receptor drug discovery platform and differentiated small molecules. Crinetics has uniquely and successfully discovered and/or developed multiple small molecule drug candidates for rare endocrine diseases where the natural ligand is a peptide. This is a capital-efficient model, focused in rare endocrine conditions with high unmet need, where achievement of proof of concept benefits from evaluation of disease markers early in development and reaches patients via targeted SG&A footprint, all of which is strongly aligned with Vertex's strategy and our own strengths in development, regulatory and specialty commercialization.
As we've discussed previously, it's not only the assets, but the people and culture that factor heavily into our assessment of companies. It's no different in this instance. The Crinetics team focus is singular. Their science is rigorous. They are committed to world-class commercialization and their culture is dedicated to excellence and patients. We value deeply this alignment on these important dimensions and believe it will ensure our combined success going forward. We are excited to work with the talented Crinetics team to build on the momentum they've created and to bring these specialty endocrine medicines to more people faster.
On strategic fit, we have a high bar when we evaluate acquisition opportunities, applying a consistent set of criteria that you can see detailed here on Slide 5. Serious diseases with high unmet need, well-understood causal human biology, validated biomarkers that enable efficient clinical and regulatory pathways, specialty markets and first-in-class or potentially best-in-class medicines. Both PALSONIFY and Atumelnant meet every one of these criteria and check every one of these boxes. We believe Vertex's global infrastructure and commercial footprint will meaningfully amplify the reach of Crinetics science, and we are confident that we can accelerate the trajectory of both lead assets.
Let me walk you through these programs in more detail, starting with PALSONIFY and Acromegaly. Acromegaly is a rare chronic hormonal disease caused by the overproduction of growth hormone, most commonly due to a benign pituitary tumor, which in turn stimulates excess insulin-like growth factor 1 or IGF-1 from the liver, which is responsible for most of the overgrowth symptoms that define Acromegaly. An estimated 20,000 people in the United States are diagnosed with the disease and more than 35,000 people outside the U.S. It's a serious disease. If left untreated patients with Acromegaly [indiscernible] enlargement of the hands and feet, serious heart and metabolic consequences, reduced quality of life and shortened lifespan.
Surgery is a first line of treatment, but unfortunately, only 40% to 50% of people achieve durable remission and thus, the majority of patients require lifelong medical therapy. The current standard of care injectable somatostatin receptor ligands or SRLs are used to reduce production of growth hormone and IGF-1. However, current standard of care SRLs are viscous, require large gauge injectables that must be administered intramuscularly or via deep subcutaneous injection. They're inconvenient, often need to be administered by a health care professional and carry low patient compliance.
Outside of PALSONIFY, oral options have limited efficacy, challenging dosing logistics or are not indicated for treatment-naive patients. In short, there is significant unmet need to be addressed. This is where PALSONIFY comes in. PALSONIFY is an oral selective somatostatin receptor type 2 or SSTR2 non-peptide agonist. By binding to SSTR2 receptors, PALSONIFY suppresses growth hormone release, which in turn suppresses IGF-1 secretion. PALSONIFY offers multiple important features for patients, first and only once-daily oral therapy, simpler dosing logistics, fast-acting efficacy, a well-tolerated profile with low discontinuation rates and a broad label indicated for both SRL switch and treatment-naive patients.
The Phase III PALSONIFY data are compelling and detailed on Slide 8. PATHFNDR-1 on the left side of this slide enrolled patients switching from injectable SRLs. 83% of these "switch patients" treated with PALSONIFY maintained IGF-1 levels within the normal range compared to just 4% on placebo. Indeed, when you look further into the data, you'll see all but 1 patient in the PALSONIFY treated arm had IGF-1 levels that were lower than 1.1x the upper limit of normal.
On the right-hand side of the slide is PATHFNDER-2, which enrolled treatment-naive patients as well as patients who stopped treatment for 4 months or more or patients who were washed out of treatment for at least 3 months. In this study, 56% of Acromegaly treated naive patients achieved IGF-1 normalization compared to just 5% on placebo. Both results were highly statistically significant with p-values of less than 0.0001. PALSONIFY was well tolerated with no serious adverse events and low discontinuation rates. Given the differentiated mechanism of action, benefit risk profile and significant patient dosing advantages as well as the broad label, we see blockbuster potential for PALSONIFY, which I'll now ask Duncan to highlight.
Thanks, Reshma. The left side of the chart details the unmet need and significant gaps in the current standard of care. At 3 years, less than 20% of patients remain on SRLs given the painful monthly injections with large gauge needles and end-of-dose symptom breakthrough. The right-hand side of the slide highlights the market research that indicates high target physician awareness and very positive perception for PALSONIFY. Physician awareness is building quickly. Market research conducted in quarter 1, 2026 shows approximately 80% unaided awareness amongst endocrinologists and approximately 70% indicated a high intention to prescribe. Physicians perceive PALSONIFYas equivalent to injectable SRLs in IGF-1 reduction, symptom control, safety and best-in-class for speed of onset, duration of response, route of administration and dosing convenience.
This physician awareness, the broad label in both switch and treatment-naive patients and the quality of the product profile are a compelling combination. In the context of the depth of unmet need in Acromegaly, this has led to strong early launch dynamics for PALSONIFY. Based on quarter 1, 2026 data, as previously disclosed on May 7, PALSONIFY generated $10.3 million in net product revenue with strong patient enrollment forms and good breadth of prescribers. Overall, in just its second quarter of launch, PALSONIFY achieved an impressive 40% to 50% share of new-to-brand prescriptions with broad uptake across both pituitary centers and community endocrinologists and across all patient segments, injectable SRL switch, treatment-naive, switch patients from other therapies and patients who have discontinued therapy entirely.
With respect to reimbursement, this market is 60% private pay and the remainder Medicare and Medicaid. The Crinetics team have made excellent progress securing reimbursement. Payer coverage currently stands at 60% through either formal coverage or medical exceptions. Crinetics have emphasized that they are on track to achieve 75% coverage by quarter 3 2026.
And on the next slide, let me double-click and give some more details on PALSONIFY. Overall, given the unique attributes PALSONIFY offers to physicians and patients, we believe it is positioned to become first-line therapy in a growing specialty disease area with a high unmet need. We see multiple target patient populations totaling 10,000 in the U.S., including patients on injectable SRLs or other therapies, those who are post surgery, actively managed by an endocrinologist who may now need treatment, those who have discontinued therapy and those patients who are new to treatment annually.
While switch patients represent the majority of the patient opportunity, PALSONIFY has a uniquely broad label and is the only oral therapy with data and the label in treatment-naive patients. Market research confirms that HCPs would start the majority of treatment-naive patients on PALSONIFY. We believe Vertex's experience in commercializing medicines for rare genetic diseases around the globe, combined with the extremely strong foundation Crinetics has built in endocrinology, positions PALSONIFY to become the standard of care in Acromegaly, and our expectation is that PALSONIFY holds the promise to be a blockbuster medicine.
Back to you, Reshma.
Thanks, Duncan. Let me now turn to Atumelnant and Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia or CAH. Classic CAH is a rare chronic genetic disorder affecting about 17,000 people in the U.S. with an additional 15,000 or more outside the U.S. In about 95% of cases, it's caused by mutations in the [ CYP21A2 ] gene, resulting in a deficiency of adrenal enzyme 21 hydroxylase. That enzyme deficiency means people can't produce adequate cortisol. Low cortisol levels lead to increases in ACTH production, which in turn causes steroid precursor buildup. Ultimately, this leads to excess production of adrenal androgens.
To manage the disease at minimum, patients must take glucocorticoids for life. Glucocorticoids are administered to these patients to replace the missing cortisol and patients are often given high or super physiologic doses in order to suppress the androgen production. This creates a dual burden for patients. High androgen levels drive abnormal growth, early puberty, infertility and long-term physical and emotional consequences. High-dose glucocorticoids can cause heart disease, obesity, diabetes, bone loss and persistent quality of life issues. There has been limited therapeutic innovation in this field for the last 50-plus years. No currently approved medicine can both normalize androgens and allow people to be maintained on physiologic glucocorticoid doses.
A recent market entrant works upstream in the pituitary gland and has shown it can reduce glucocorticoid doses modestly, but it does not concurrently improve androgens with physiologic glucocorticoid dosing, leaving both the steroid burden and androgen excess incompletely addressed for many people. Atumelnant takes a fundamentally different approach. This is the key point. It's an ACTH receptor antagonist that acts directly at the adrenal cortex. By blocking ACTH signaling at the adrenal level, Atumelnant suppresses excess androgen production while concurrently enabling people to reduce their glucocorticoid doses to physiologic levels, the true goal of CAH management.
In terms of program status, Atumelnant is currently enrolling its Phase III [ CALM ] CAH study of 150 adults. [ CALM ] CAH is a 2:1 randomized placebo-controlled study with a primary endpoint of proportion of participants with A4, that's the androgen level at or below the upper limit of normal, while on physiologic glucocorticoid replacement therapy at week 32. To be clear, no other drug for CAH has ever evaluated this control of androgens and maintenance of physiologic GC replacement, glucocorticoid replacement as the primary endpoint. The study enrolled its first patient in December of last year and is currently enrolling and dosing patients. So is a Phase II/III pediatric study in CAH. Atumelnant has also demonstrated therapeutic potential in ACTH-dependent Cushing's syndrome, where our Phase II trial has initiated.
I'll turn it back over to Duncan to recap the Phase II Atumelnant data in CAH, which is a major value driver and one of the primary reasons we are so excited about this acquisition.
Thanks, Reshma. As Reshma alluded to, the true goal of therapy in CAH is to normalize androgen levels and simultaneously enable patients to be managed with physiologic levels of glucocorticoids to replace their missing cortisol. Currently, this means seeking an almost impossible balance between androgen suppression and glucocorticoid treatment to avoid adrenal crisis while also preventing the metabolic and cardiovascular consequences of excess glucocorticoids. Essentially, physicians and their patients are currently forced to choose between androgen excess or [ supraphysiologic ] doses of glucocorticoids.
As a result, there are 2 important points to share regarding the Phase II data from the [ Atumelnant-2CAN ] study. firstly, the impact of Atumelnant on androgen levels; and secondly, the impact of Atumelnant on glucocorticoid dose. To that end, the Phase II Cohort 4 data demonstrated both rapid reduction in A4 and down titration to physiologic levels of glucocorticoids. Specifically, there was an unprecedented 67% reduction from baseline in mean A4 androgen levels even with tapering of glucocorticoid dosing. 87% of patients achieved physiologic glucocorticoid dosing while A4 reduction was maintained.
In summary, we believe Atumelnant achieves the previously unattainable holy grail of CAH management. It has the transformative potential to concurrently and durably normalize androgen levels while also allowing physiologic doses of glucocorticoids as well as being well tolerated and given through once-daily oral dosing. In addition, market research with target endocrinologists confirms high awareness of these impressive Phase II data and the top reason physicians select Atumelnant's profile in research is efficacy. Specifically, 75% of respondents cite the data on [ angroostamdion ] and glucocorticoid reduction. Physicians see Atumelnant as the future standard of care for people with classic CAH. We believe Atumelnant has multibillion-dollar potential in the CAH market alone and meaningful additional opportunity in Cushing's syndrome.
Before I turn it back over to Reshma to cover Cushing's, let me take one moment to step back and summarize the commercial opportunity. Going back to the strategic fit of the deal, these rare endocrine diseases are all managed by specialty endocrinologists that can be reached with a small commercial footprint. As an example, Crinetics currently serves the Acromegaly market with a roughly 40-person field sales team. In total, there are approximately 8,000 endocrinologists in the U.S., and each of these diseases is managed by a subset of approximately 3,000 to 4,000 specialty endocrinologists, where we also see opportunity for synergy across these rare endocrine diseases.
I'll now turn the call back to Reshma to describe the additional opportunity for Atumelnant in Cushing's syndrome.
There are several additional areas of opportunity within the Crinetics pipeline, both clinically and preclinically. Tonight, I'll highlight just one, ACTH-dependent Cushing's syndrome or ADCS. ADCS is another serious rare endocrine disease with high unmet need affecting about 10,000 patients in the U.S. and about 50,000 patients outside the U.S. Surgery is first-line therapy, but many patients will require chronic medical management. Excess cortisol secretion from a benign pituitary adenoma accounts for 80% to 90% of ADCS, while another 10% to 20% comes from atopic ACTH secretion. This prolonged excess cortisol can lead to high patient morbidity, including heart disease, obesity, diabetes and more.
By directly blocking ACTH signaling, Atumelnant reduces cortisol production and thus holds transformative potential for this disease. The data in Cushing's syndrome are impressive. The Phase I/II study of Atumelnant in patients with ADCS treated at 40 milligrams showed at day 10, a rapid lowering of urine-free cortisol, or UFC, with 3 of 6 patients having UFC within the normal range, while on physiologic doses of glucocorticoids. Data from the 80-milligram cohort also demonstrated rapid lowering of UFC with 5 of 6 patients or 83% achieving normalization of urine free cortisol on physiologic doses of glucocorticoids.
With regard to program status, the Phase II study has been initiated, and we are excited about taking this program into development into pivotal development and further. Post closing, we look forward to sharing more on the other Crinetics pipeline programs. For now, let me reiterate our excitement for the lead assets, PALSONIFY and Atumelnant, our admiration for the Crinetics team's deep scientific expertise in endocrinology, GPCR biology and their drug discovery platform as well as the culture they have built.
I'll now turn over the call to Charlie for highlights of the transaction and our outlook for the combined companies.
Thank you, Reshma. Vertex will acquire all outstanding shares of Crinetics common stock for $85 per share in cash. The total equity value is approximately $10 billion or $8.8 billion net of estimated cash acquired. To finance the transaction, Vertex expects to use a combination of cash on hand and debt, supported by $4.5 billion of fully committed bridge financing. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by Crinetics shareholders and receipt of regulatory approvals. We currently anticipate closing in the third quarter of 2026.
In terms of financial impact, this transaction is consistent with Vertex's capital allocation priorities, which remain focused on internal and external innovation in disease areas where we can deliver transformative benefit to people and sustainable value for shareholders. The financial case is straightforward and compelling. PALSONIFY is already generating revenue and building momentum with the potential to be a blockbuster drug in acromegaly. Atumelnant has the potential to be a multibillion-dollar opportunity in CAH with meaningful additional upside from the market opportunity in Cushing's syndrome.
At peak, these assets have the potential to deliver more than $5 billion in combined annual revenue. That revenue profile furthers Vertex's goal of sustained double-digit revenue growth and is expected to be margin accretive over time. Oral small molecules in specialty endocrinology markets carry attractive commercial profiles and Crinetics' capital-efficient development model is well aligned with Vertex's own approach to operating leverage. The transaction is expected to become accretive to non-GAAP operating income in 2029. On guidance, given the anticipated June 3, 2026 closing, the impact to 2026 revenue and non-GAAP operating expenses is expected to be modest. We will provide updated 2026 guidance at the time of closing.
I'll take a minute now to frame what this acquisition means for Vertex's long-term growth story. Beginning in 2023, we've spoken about our goal of 5 launches in 5 years. With this transaction, not only do we reach that goal more than 2 years ahead of schedule, we're also adding a fifth pillar, endocrinology to our disease area and commercial framework alongside cystic fibrosis, heme, acute pain and our emerging renal area. Across each of those 5 areas, we have a uniquely attractive product portfolio and pipeline. In CF, ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA continue to generate strong revenue with growth driven by approvals in younger patients, geographic expansion and patients living longer. In heme, CASGEVY is approved for both sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia. And importantly, just last week, CASGEVY received supplemental approval in the U.S. for patients ages 2 years and older with either SCD or TDT.
In acute pain, JOURNAVX is in year 2 of its launch and on track to triple prescriptions in 2026 versus 2025. Additional pain programs are in development. In renal, [ povetacicept ] is advancing rapidly in IgAN with a November 30 PDUFA date and is also in a Phase III study in primary membranous nephropathy and a Phase II study in myasthenia gravis. To this mix, we now add endocrinology as a fifth pillar with PALSONIFY already on the market and Atumelnant in pivotal development plus the Vertex internal endo assets of our type 1 diabetes programs. We also see value in Crinetics' additional pipeline assets, and we'll discuss that post close. We believe this combination makes Vertex a stronger, more diversified company with a long runway of growth while staying true to the strategy that's driven our success.
To reiterate the investment thesis behind the acquisition, Crinetics is an excellent strategic fit for Vertex. Both PALSONIFY and Atumelnant mil meet every element of our strategic acquisition criteria, serious diseases with high unmet need, well-understood causal biology, validated biomarkers, specialty markets and best-in-class potential. Together, these assets add more than $5 billion in combined peak sales potential, and they do so in a disease area, specialty endocrinology, where Crinetics has built deep, durable expertise and exactly fits our commercialization framework. We're excited about this combination, and we look forward to sharing more details as we progress toward closing and beyond.
With that, we're happy to take your questions.
And our first question for today will come from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
Curious on the $5 billion peak projection for PALSONIFY and Atumelnant. How do you break that out between the assets? And does it factor in carcinoid for PALSONIFY 2? And then related to Atumelnant specifically, how much diligence were you able to conduct on the clinical profile? Did you see any safety data from ongoing trials?
Jess, it's Reshma. Let me take those 2 questions. I'll take the second one first. We were able to do the kind of diligence you would expect from Vertex. And everything we've seen, including efficacy, safety makes us feel really good about what Atumelnant could do for patients, not only in CAH, but in ACTH-mediated Cushing's syndrome as well.
On the $5 billion, one of the reasons we like this deal so much is that there are many paths to the $5 billion in revenue that we outlined. Maybe the most visible and straightforward path is just focusing on the 2 lead assets. We see PALSONIFY in acromegaly as a blockbuster medicine. And then we have multibillion-dollar potential for Atumelnant in CAH and then add on to that really significant opportunity in ACTH-mediated Cushing's syndrome. You add that all up, and that's the $5 billion revenue we outlined. But there are many other pathways. As you mentioned, there's a program in Phase III in carcinoid based on mechanism of action, I have every reason in the world to believe it will be successful. There are very interesting preclinical programs in other rare endocrine diseases that are of interest to us. I'll just call one out, Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. So many paths to the $5 billion that we outlined. The most straightforward is the focus on 2 lead assets.
The next question will come from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
With regard to Atumelnant, could you speak to how we think about the ramp of the drug and the sales outlook in the context of what's played out with Neurocrine's drug here? And then secondly, for PALSONIFY, the -- maybe speak to the ex U.S. launch outlook here given the recent EMA approval?
Yes. Sure. Thanks, Salveen. Let me take the first question on how we see the Atumelnant ramp, and then I'll ask Duncan to comment on PALSONIFY and commercialization. Let me just make a top line comment for both. Obviously, we're just announcing the merger agreement today. The deal still has to close. So I'm going to be thoughtful about not going too far forward before the deal closes. That being said, as you heard Duncan say, the awareness for Atumelnant in CAH is very high. And this idea that you can have a drug that can control both physiologic levels of GC, glucocorticoid and concurrently manage the androgens, that is the holy grail of what physicians and patients want. And so we see a lot of opportunity, a lot of awareness, and it's an oral small molecule. So for this opportunity to play out in a nice launch uptake. But I won't go further than that until the deal closes.
Duncan, do you want to say a couple of words about PALSONIFY and where you would take that once the deal closes?
Yes. Salveen, briefly, PALSONIFY has been approved in Europe in April earlier this year. And without sort of prejudging exactly what we would do, our plan would be to conduct a global launch of PALSONIFY beyond, of course, the excellent launch that the Crinetics team are executing here in the U.S. right now.
The next question will come from Cory Kasimov with Evercore ISI.
This is Josh on for Cory. In regards to Atumelnant, what data did you see to make you feel comfortable that there won't be a liver safety signal as was a concern that was brought up by investors previously. And we'll leave it at that.
Yes. We've looked at the totality of available data generated to date with Atumelnant in all of the indications. So that means CAH as well as in the early study in ACTH-dependent Cushing's. What we see is minor elevations. I believe there were a handful of cases, I think 7 actually to be exact, of minor elevations in LFTs. There are no cases of LFTs plus bilirubin. There -- most of the cases, 6 of the 7 resolved without any intervention on continued therapy. So we feel really good about the safety profile, not only in the liver dimension, which you asked about, but as we reviewed the data, we felt really good about the profile overall.
The next question will come from Andy Chen with Wolfe Research.
And I think you mentioned that the deal is going to be accretive by 2029 based on your internal assumptions. Would this largely be driven by PALSONIFY? Or is it possible for Atumelnant to launch before then? If you can provide some metrics on timing of Phase III data, that would be great.
Charlie, do you want to comment on that?
Yes. Thanks for the question. Obviously, the commentary about this becoming accretive to operating margins in 2029 factors in both our view on revenue ramp as well as OpEx trajectory over the next couple of years. We'll be more specific about that at the time of close.
The next question will come from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
This is Jarwei on for Geoff. Maybe 2 from us. First, on PALSONIFY, what gives you confidence that the Phase II CAH profile would be reproducible in a larger, more heterogeneous Phase III population? And then on Atumelnant, what's the one risk you're most focused on as you move through the Phase III study?
Sure thing. I think you mean Atumelnant in CAH, what gives us confidence that we're going to recapitulate the results in Phase III as seen in Phase II. One of the really -- one of the things we like so much about this platform is the disease biology is extremely well understood. The manifestation of the disease is clear. You can tell if the medicine is working, as I said in my prepared remarks, early on because these are exactly the biomarkers that we study as you're developing proof of concept as is the endpoint in Phase III.
So based on the mechanism of action, the presentation of the disease, it is a rare genetic endocrine disease and the strength of the data, the magnitude of the treatment effect, I have high confidence in the Phase III program. You also asked about what risks are we looking for. There's nothing special that I would call out here. The risks for any program that is transitioning between Phase II and Phase III is simply to ensure that the safety and tolerability profile is the same in Phase III as was in Phase II, and we already talked about the efficacy. But I see no unique risks that concern me here.
The next question will come from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
On the proposed acquisition. So mechanistically, when you think about the kind of competition out there, walk me through why you think the Crinetics asset is potentially better than chronicity. I know you have some data in the slides, but when you did your diligence, what was it that was striking that caused you to decide to acquire the company or propose the proposed acquisition of the company?
Yes. You bet, Evan, and thanks for your kind words. So the key here, Evan, if we just focus on CAH is that the long-standing and very well known to the field. So this is a rare endocrine disease taking care of by a small number of endocrinologists. Endocrinologists in any case, is only 8,000, 9,000 endocrinologists in the U.S., kind of the same number as nephrologists. So it's a small specialty. And of that, only like 4,000 or so take care of this kind of rare endocrine disease.
When you look at the disease itself, it's very clear that it's this dual burden of needing to supplement with glucocorticoids, but the best outcome would be using physiologic doses of glucocorticoids or GCs. But that's not really possible. People end up using super physiologic doses of GCs because without doing so, the androgens, which have a whole host of complexities, as I described in my prepared remarks, growth challenges, [ HERsutism ], virilization, a whole host of excess androgen challenges. So you use more GCs. And when you do that, you're constantly tiering between too much glucocorticoids and the downstream negative consequences of that or too little glucocorticoids and then having excess androgens.
So I think Duncan described it exactly right. The holy grail has been can we have a medicine that allows glucocorticoids at physiologic levels while suppressing androgens. And when you look at the Phase II data, and we shared some of it on the slide, that is exactly what you get. And I would say, Adam, the key thing to look at is look at the end of the trial period where you have GCs at physiologic levels and look at that point at the androgen or A4 level. That's the key data. When we saw that data, we were floored. That is very, very important to this field.
I'm going to ask Duncan to see if he wants to make any additional comments.
My only additional comment to that is, and we believe that's unique that there is no other company that have data that has shown the ability to achieve that holy grail of both managing androgen levels as well as and simultaneously enable patients to be treated with physiologic doses of glucocorticoids. And that is unique and no one else has shown that.
The next question will come from Michael Yee with UBS.
Mike Yee from UBS. Two questions, maybe Reshma. One is just thinking about the premium on the acquisition of approximately 100% and appreciating that nearly every deal, I think, year-to-date nearly has been a much more modest premium speaking to sort of bid-ask spreads and where we are in the market. So talk a little bit about either was this a very competitive situation? Or how do we arrive at such a high premium?
The second question is more scientific and competitive in nature. And in understanding the difference between your drug and chronicity, it looks like your -- Crinetics is using quite a different endpoint in Phase III. And perhaps is it that endpoint that speaks to exactly what you're trying to address in terms of normalizing performance?
Yes. Michael, this is Reshma. Let me take the second question first, and then I'll turn it over to Charlie to tell you more about how we think about value. You are exactly right about the endpoint. And I do think that the Phase III endpoint of the Atumelnant CAH study tells you exactly what you need to know about what we think is most important in this disease. And to reiterate that, it is physiologic doses of glucocorticoids and at physiologic levels of glucocorticoids getting the androgens under control. So you're spot on, on that.
With regard to value, let me top line it by saying we see significant intrinsic value in this acquisition, and I'll ask Charlie to give you some more color.
Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. Listen, there are obviously a lot of ways to think about value, both absolute and relative. To Reshma's point, as we looked at the opportunity to acquire Crinetics, what we saw was the potential for best-in-class products with transformative benefit. We toplined for you the potential for $5 billion in peak sales and as well as a meaningful addition to profitability after a few years. So it's a very attractive fit, both strategic and financial. And on those merits, we see a lot of intrinsic value that justifies the price.
Maybe if you think about other measures, if you think about the value relative to peak sales, so roughly 2x, those measures are right in line with -- if you think about other deals of really high-quality assets, either commercial or near commercial, I think it's right in line. So we feel great about this. The price reflects the value that we see, and we look forward to both growing and accelerating this business once the deal closes.
The next question will come from Brian Abrahams with RBC Capital Markets.
This is [ Nevin ] on for Brian. Just wanted to touch on and expand on what you think the commercial dynamics may look like in the event that Atumelnant is approved. So some of the patient feedback that we've gotten on CAH patients from CAH patients indicate that there might be some hesitancy for those who are currently on chronicity to switch just given the potential need to reequilibrate their glucocorticoids. So how are you thinking about this as a potential barrier to switching off of chronicity in the case Atumelnant is approved? Would you look to pursue a switch study? And what specific profile do you think could potentially demonstrate a compelling enough profile to incentivize switching?
Yes. this is Reshma. Maybe I'll just answer with a top line. I don't want to go further than where we are at the moment that the deal hasn't closed yet. We'll have more to say on this. But what we have heard from patients and physicians and as you heard Duncan outline, is high awareness of the possibility of Atumelnant in CAH, very, very clear goals from physicians and patients that they want to have both their glucocorticoids at physiological doses with control of androgens and there's high awareness that that's not happening. This is not an asymptomatic disease. It's actually a very pronounced and symptomatic disease and troubling to patients because they feel the excess of the glucocorticoids or the excess of androgen. So it doesn't go by quietly or unnoticed and both physicians and patients want these measures under control. The point that you raised about switch studies is a very good idea. I'll just leave it at that, and we'll talk more after the deal closes.
The next question will come from Phil Nadeau with TD Cowen.
I guess our question is on the timing of the deal. Why is this the right time for Vertex to add a fifth pillar? I think you have a lot going on in your early-stage pipeline or early-stage launches with JOURNAVX, CASGEVY in the early stages of their commercial uptake, [ povetacicept and innaxaplin ], not yet making it to market but being pretty close. So a skeptic would say you have plenty going on already. What are you trying to diversify away from? Why is this the right time to add a fifth pillar to Vertex's commercial strategy?
Thanks for the question, Phil. We see ourselves as a company that is looking to bring transformative medicines to patients around the globe. We see ourselves as a growth company. We see ourselves as a company that has the ability, bandwidth resources, judgment, taste, commercial prowess to do this in many areas. And when we saw the data from Crinetics, met the team from Crinetics, looked at the pipeline, looked at the potential, this is absolutely the kind of deal that fits us perfectly. And the timing is now because the company is available now. The data are available now. And we believe that we are the right group to take on PALSONIFY, add to what the Crinetics team has done and take this around the globe, accelerate the launch in the U.S. and start the launch ex U.S.
And we feel really terrific about what they designed in Phase III. And we feel like this is the right time to get to the company with the Phase III program well underway, so we can now help shape how that launch is going to go. So we're doing this now because we are interested in ensuring that we remain the kind of company that when we see wonderful assets in our own pipeline or outside, we take full advantage of it and we drive hard. This is exactly the kind of deal that fits us perfectly.
The next question will come from Tazeen Ahmad with Bank of America.
I wanted to get a sense of the synergy that you think these group of assets will have on your already established commercial infrastructure. And also the particular focus on endocrinology, can you just talk about why that makes sense just given everything else that's already been mentioned that you're developing in the pipeline? And do you think there's opportunities to leverage that in the future beyond the assets that you're acquiring?
Tazeen, I couldn't hear the end of your question, but I think the fundamental point was why endocrine and do we see synergies. I'll ask Duncan to comment, but I'll just top line it by saying, of course, we have our T1D cell therapy-based program in endocrine. And so that's an important thing to consider. And I'll ask Duncan to comment on that as well as the synergies we see between these various assets in the Crinetics portfolio.
And lastly, to talk a little bit about why we like the endocrine space so much and why it reminds us of CF. Duncan?
Yes. So just to cover a couple of points here. So there clearly will be synergies between the different diseases in the Crinetics portfolio. They're essentially all treated by about a total of 8,000 endocrinologists in the U.S. But each of those diseases is probably treated by about 3,000 or 4,000 physicians, and there's going to be significant synergy and significant overlap between those patients -- sorry, between those physician groups. There's certainly plenty of synergy with the endocrinology space.
And as we've talked about before, it's a space where there is an incredible significant patient unmet need in the diseases that we're talking about. They are symptomatic diseases and they are serious diseases for patients, and we have highly differentiated best-in-class molecules in each of those diseases. So we see that candidly very similarly to how we think about our CF portfolio. So certainly, there's plenty of synergy in that area.
I think the first part of your question might have been about synergy on these assets across the rest of our commercial infrastructure. And with regard to that question, I think it's a little bit early to be making any comments in that regard at this point.
The next question will come from Brian Skorney with Baird.
Congrats on the deal. I guess how do you think about the market opportunity for PALSONIFY in Acromegaly versus carcinoid syndrome versus nonsymptomatic [indiscernible]. I think the market for injectable SRL is more heavily weighted towards neuroendocrine tumors. So do you have a perspective on how that market is currently split up for the injectables? And do you think ultimately at peak PALSONIFY has a different market dynamic in terms of the ratio of acromegaly versus neuroendocrine?
Brian, I think you're asking how do we see the market for PALSONIFY for acromegaly versus neuroendocrine tumors, maybe including carcinoid. I think that's what you're asking. It was a little hard to hear.
Yes, that's exactly correct.
Okay. I'll ask Duncan to comment. I don't think we're going to have any specific comments on the split between the market. But what I can tell you is we see real opportunity for PALSONIFY as best-in-class for acromegaly and we'll hold on the neuroendocrine tumors in carcinoid after the deal closes. But I will ask Duncan to comment on PALSONIFY Acromegaly.
Sure. So Brian, as far as Acromegaly is concerned, just to repeat some of the comments we made earlier, this is about 20,000 patients in the U.S., about 35,000 patients around the world. As we've talked about before, there's a very significant unmet need for these patients and PALSONIFY offers a unique oral once-daily dosing with rapid and sustained up to 22 months symptom control, which compares very favorably with the current sort of standard of care after surgery, which is sort of large gauge intramuscular injections that are given once a month. They're fairly viscous injections cause a number of painful injection site reactions and tend to have a tapering of symptom control towards the end of the month.
So you sort of start the month with the injection site reaction and you end the month with limited symptom control. So we think PALSONIFY in Acromegaly for sure, has the opportunity to become best-in-class, as I say, as an oral once-daily treatment. And as you know, it's priced at around about $290,000 here in the U.S. So we're very excited about the opportunity for acromegaly and very excited about the work that the Crinetics team have already done in order to drive physician awareness, uptake, patient enrollment forms and really nice broad market access this early in launch.
Your next question will come from Ellie Merle with Barclays.
This is Jasmine on for Ellie. Congratulations. So a couple on PALSONIFY. First, how would you segment the addressable acromegaly market across switch versus naive patients? Where do you expect the strongest initial uptake for PALSONIFY? And how do you expect to work to gain share across both segments? And then secondly, can you talk a little bit about the level of motivation across these rare endocrinologist prescribers to actually switch to new therapies like PALSONIFY.
Yes, you bet. I'm going to ask Duncan to comment on the -- let's just narrow down the buckets and maybe Duncan will expand, but there's the switch population and then there is naive, discontinued as well as the group who have just recently had surgery but are not yet on medicine. And then to talk a little bit about the new prescriptions that we're seeing, which I think speaks directly to your point about comfort of physicians. Duncan?
Yes. Thank you for the question, Ellie. I'm not going to go into too much detail in providing sort of guidance on where we expect the business to come from. But safe to say, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we do expect, at least initially, the vast majority of PALSONIFY business to continue to come from switch patients. As I alluded to in my answer to the last question, these are patients that are on very unpalatable injectable SRLs. And so we see a significant opportunity for the switch patients but there are also, as Reshma alluded to, patients who are treatment naive. It's about 500,000 new patients a year. There's also patients who 500,000, sorry.
[indiscernible] equals [ 500 ].
And there are also about a number of patients that have treatment discontinued. As I showed in the presentation, there's a lot of patients that start on these therapies, but because of either the challenges in taking them or lack of symptom control, they tend to come off those therapies. So there's plenty of patients who have discontinued existing treatments for existing available treatments who we think would be great candidates for PALSONIFY.
I would say in terms of the level of motivation from HCPs, both the engagements that we've had with physicians, the market research we've done and the data that Crinetics have themselves communicated, there is incredibly high awareness of PALSONIFY. There is incredibly high awareness amongst the target endocrinologists of the Crinetics organization and PALSONIFY. And we've seen really nice uptake in terms of new physicians prescribing each month, patient start forms and as I alluded to before, strong payer coverage, all of which I think are good indicators of, a, the significant and visible unmet need in the disease; and b, the clinical impact of PALSONIFY.
The next question will come from Carter Gould with Cantor.
Congrats on the deal. Follow-on to an earlier question around adding a fifth vertical. What are the implications for future BD, both in terms of capacity and areas of focus? Should we expect a downshifting in BD as you rebuild cash balances? And I guess, should we rule out you adding a sixth or seventh pillar in the near term with this recent deal?
This is Reshma. Thanks for the question. First things first, super excited about announcing the merger agreement today. We have a close still to go. As you heard Charlie say, we are very serious about our R&D strategy. We're very serious about our capital allocation approach that it goes to innovation. Nothing changes on that front, and you should not expect any change going forward.
Chuck can you give the replay info, please?
We'll do. That will conclude our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. A replay will be available shortly after the call concludes by dialing 1 (855) 669-9658 or 1 (412) 317-0088 using replay access code 1734853. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - M&A Call
Vertex will acquire Crinetics for ~$10B to add endocrinology drugs PALSONIFY (commercial) and Atumelnant (pivotal), targeting >$5B peak sales.
🎯 Key Message
- Deal: Vertex agreed to buy Crinetics for $85/share (~$10B equity; ~$8.8B net of cash), financing with cash, debt and a $4.5B committed bridge; expected close in Q3 2026.
- Why: Adds a fifth commercial pillar (endocrinology) with an on-market oral acromegaly drug (PALSONIFY) and a Phase III ACTH-receptor antagonist (Atumelnant) that together target >$5B peak sales and longer-term margin accretion.
⚡ Strategic Highlights
- PALSONIFY: First‑and‑only once‑daily oral for acromegaly, EMA and FDA approved, early U.S. launch momentum (disclosed Q1 net product revenue $10.3M; 40–50% new‑to‑brand share).
- Atumelnant: Oral ACTH (adrenocorticotropic hormone) receptor antagonist for congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), Phase III enrolling; Phase II showed 67% mean reduction in androgen marker A4 and 87% of patients on physiologic glucocorticoid dosing.
- Commercial fit: Rare endocrine diseases are treated by a small specialist base (~3k–4k endocrinologists per disease), enabling a compact field force and synergies with Vertex’s specialty commercialization.
🔭 New Information
- Financials: Transaction expected to be modestly impactful to 2026 revenue/OpEx; Vertex will update 2026 guidance at close and expects the deal to be accretive to non‑GAAP operating income by 2029.
- Timing & financing: Anticipated close in Q3 2026, financed with cash, debt and $4.5B bridge commitment; regulatory and shareholder approvals required.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Valuation: Analysts pressed on ~100% premium; management defended the price citing intrinsic value, multiple paths to $5B peak sales and ~2x peak‑sales valuation metrics for high‑quality near‑commercial assets.
- Safety diligence: Vertex reviewed clinical data across indications; minor liver‑function test (LFT) elevations were observed (seven cases, six resolved, no LFTs plus bilirubin/Hy’s law), and management expressed comfort with the overall safety profile.
- Commercial execution & timing: Questions on launch ramps: PALSONIFY has strong early uptake and payer progress (60% coverage, targeting 75% by Q3 2026); Atumelnant interest is high but Vertex will avoid detailed launch projections until closing and further Phase III readouts.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Takeaway: The acquisition diversifies Vertex toward endocrinology with an on‑market product and a pivotal program that could materially expand long‑term revenue and margins; near‑term financial impact is limited but execution on Phase III, safety monitoring and integrating commercialization will determine shareholder value.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us. It's my pleasure to introduce Vertex Pharmaceuticals. And with us, we have Reshma Kewalramani, who's President and CEO of the company. Reshma, thank you for being here.
You bet.
Maybe just start here, a high-level overview on the company. Help us understand where Vertex stands today in terms of your core cystic fibrosis and emerging pain and kidney autoimmune franchises, the key pipeline priorities and the outlook and strategy for the company as we head into the end of the decade?
Sure thing. Sounds good. First of all, it's very nice to be here with you, Salveen. I know we're the last fireside chat, so it's good to see those of you in the room. I've described 2026 and for the next 6, 12, 18 months as a year, a period of time for Vertex. That's an execution-rich period, and that's exactly how the first part of this year has played out, and I expect the back half of this year.
And as we go forward, it's going to be about expanding and extending our leadership in CF. You know that we now have medicines that can get up to 95% of people with cystic fibrosis and we continue to expand geographically as reimbursements come out outside the U.S. and lower in age groups. For our last 5,000 or so patients, we're working on a nucleic acid therapy approach. You know that the approach we had started with is not going to be the one that goes forward.
So in CF, we are looking forward to all of that work and potentially bringing the next-in-class molecules, although it is getting awfully difficult to beat the medicines we have. I know I said that when we were working on the ALYFTREK when TRIKAFTA was available, but it's even more so to try and beat a ALYFTREK with something else. Nonetheless, we have 3 programs in that area, VX-828, VX-271 and VX-582 as those next-gen programs.
Then moving on to pain. JOURNAVX is now about a year into its launch. There were more than 500,000 scripts written last year. We're expecting to more than 3x that this year. And of course, with that comes commensurate increases in revenue.
The hematology franchise with CASGEVY is growing nicely, and I like the momentum there. It's a long patient journey. So we have line of sight to the number of patients who've been initiated, the number of doses that are to be administered. And I like what I see there. And of course, pove. It was at this conference last year that I think Salveen was the first to recognize that the fourth vertical of Vertex was about to be created. And fast forward a year, just last week, we learned from the FDA that the filing for accelerated approval has been accepted. And therefore, the PDUFA date for pove in IgAN is set at November 30.
As we look through the end of the decade then, it's certainly about these programs and driving them to their full potential as we complete the launches or get them launched in the example of pove. And it's a lot about moving forward rapidly the Phase III programs. And I'll just name them, and we can certainly talk about whichever ones are of interest. But the type 1 diabetes program, the cell-based therapy, that's in Phase III. There are -- there's a DPN diabetic peripheral neuropathy study in Phase III. Inaxaplin is in Phase III for something called APOL1-mediated kidney disease and pove in both IgAN and membranous are also in Phase III. And of course, there's a whole pipeline behind that.
And then as we look at the balance sheet, it continues to grow. We really like the way we're allocating capital largely to innovation. But as the company grows and the balance sheet grows, we're also doing more stock buybacks, and you should expect more of the same from us on that front. That probably takes us through at least 2030.
Yes. Perfect. Maybe on the balance sheet side here. So how does BD play a role here in terms of decent-sized BD like you did with Alpine? And also, how are you thinking about dividends on the forward?
Yes. Maybe 3 things to say on that front. The first is, if you look at our pipeline, about 60% of our clinical stage pipeline comes from internal innovation and a full 40% comes from external innovation. So we've been active in both for quite some time.
Maybe the second thing to point out is the Alpine acquisition looked really good to us as we were going through the process. And boy, I excited the more we peel the onion, the better and better it looks. The Seattle site is extremely productive, some really great people who came to us from Alpine. And I think you're going to see some medicines that come into the clinic in the near future that are from our site in Seattle. The last thing to say is I really do think the strategy around investing in innovation is the right one for us. And as I look into my crystal ball, I don't see dividends in my crystal ball from where I sit today.
Perfect. Starting with the cystic fibrosis franchise here. How do you view the long-term trajectory and speak to the extent of market share remaining or any additional growth levers?
Yes. So in cystic fibrosis, I'm going to round a little bit, but there are around about 100,000, 107,000 people around the globe. The vast, vast majority of patients who can be on medicine are on medicine. So as I think about the medium-term growth and near and medium-term growth, it's going to be about getting to additional countries. So there are countries, think Turkey, think Brazil that aren't yet at the place or just getting to the place where reimbursement has come through. And so that's going to get us more patients to be on medicine and more growth.
We're still working on the lower age groups. So KALYDECO is in 6-months-olds. The TRIKAFTA medicine, we're soon going to file for the 1- to 2-year olds. And for ALYFTREK, we're filing -- just getting ready to file for 2- to 5-year olds. That brings more patients into the fold and that brings more growth. And then lastly, in the more medium to long term, it's the last 5,000 patients, for that we are going to need nucleic acid therapies. So we're working through both the delivery, which frankly has been the greater obstacle than the payload. So that's where we are with CF.
And of your existing franchise here, maybe talk to what proportion of patients you think will transfer to ALYFTREK and over what time frame and what factors are moderating conversions given I think it has about 15% share of the franchise currently?
Yes. That's about right. So ALYFTREK now cumulatively has hit over $1 billion in revenue, and it was launched around about January of '25. So that's a program that's picking up momentum. The key attributes for ALYFTREK are: one, it's once-a-day dosing. You'll remember TRIKAFTA is twice-a-day dosing. It actually is interesting. It's turned out to be more important than perhaps I've even given it credit for, especially in our younger patients where once daily dosing is a real benefit.
The second is that it's approved for even more mutations than TRIKAFTA. So there are more patients with the ultra-rare mutations that can access a drug that treats the underlying cause of their disease. And then lastly, a benefit for all is that in head-to-head studies versus TRIKAFTA, the ALYFTREK molecule had even greater reductions in sweat chloride. So those are the attributes.
And if you think about the conversion, in the U.S., the label is such that there is additional monitoring a patient needs to go through if they start a new medicine, whatever the new medicine is, if it's ALYFTREK or TRIKAFTA. And so for the conversions that counts as a new medicine, there's additional monitoring. In Europe, the label is just playing different, and it does not have this additional monitoring. And so if you look in Europe, if you look at certain Nordic countries, for example, it's more than 70% of the CF patients have converted to ALYFTREK from TRIKAFTA.
So I think as the years go by, I continue to expect that the majority of patients are going to choose to be on the medicine that has the best profile and that is ALYFTREK, and I do think the majority are going to switch to ALYFTREK. We've never forced switching in the past, and we don't intend to do so here, but I think patients and physicians will choose ALY over the next period of time.
And how are you positioning your next-gen correctors, your 3.0 versus your existing franchise as you think about the future and any time lines you can give us here?
Yes, yes. So the next, next wave are the 3 that I named 828, 271 and 582. The first of that next wave, we should be able to see some patient results in the back half of this year. That's 828. And for 271 and 582, they're a little bit behind [Technical Difficulty] to what we're looking for. Our long-term goal has been to bring the vast majority of patients to below carrier [Technical Difficulty]. That number is 30 millimoles. Where we are today with ALYFTREK, we have 2/3 of patients who start medicine early in life already getting to that goal.
More than 90% of patients are at a sweat chloride of less than 60. That's the diagnostic threshold and more than 2/3 are less than 30. So one of the interesting things in CF today is to think about, is there more room to get even better? And when you look at the sweat chloride values and you think about the median, when we talk about median of less than 60 or median of less than 30, there's a normal distribution around that as you would expect.
And when we plot this lower age groups who are on ALE and you look at their median less than 30 and you look at the distribution and then you plot carriers. So those who are the parents of the children with disease who are essentially free of disease, they are now overlapping. So our young kids who are taking ALE on their distribution of sweat chloride and you look at normals, we are near overlapping. That's a wonderful milestone to achieve. So we're there with 2/3 of our patients. So what are we looking for? We're looking to get even more patients to under 30. That's the North Star that we're following.
In that carrier population, is there any benefit to going even lower?
Now that is an absolutely excellent question. It does not appear to be the case that even lower is better. But to be fair, we don't have a lot of data in the even lower. We're just getting patients now. It's really the wave of ALYFTREK that's gotten large numbers of patients to less than 30. TRIKAFTA got patients to less than 60. So we're exploring this. And I do think you're going to need exceptionally long-term data.
You're going to need data over 5, 10, 15, 20 years because if you look at model data from ALE or TRI as an example, this is model data, patients are living to more than 70 years of age. And so we're getting to these points of very good survival. And the key question is, but can we get your protein function, your CFTR protein function to essentially carrier levels, and that's what we're trying for. But I don't know that there's any additional benefit beyond getting you to less than 30.
If you look at the less than 60 and the less than 30, now you're sort of maximizing benefit. Maybe there's a little bit more between less than 30 -- less than 60 and less than 30, but I don't think there's even more under 30. I think that's the goal, get our patients to less than 30.
And then finally, on this topic, there is a competitor, Sionna, that's developing assets in cystic fibrosis targeting NBD1 under the belief that it would lead to increased efficacy in FEV1 over Vertex's assets, namely TRIKAFTA in that first data set this summer. Describe the work you've done to understand this target and why you believe your assets have reached a ceiling here in FEV1 or overall the saturation of the protein?
Yes. Because we've been working in CF for so long and have data all the way back to KALYDECO and have data that looks at sweat chloride levels and ppFEV1 lung function, we have an enormously large data set for this rare disease population. And what I can tell you is that there is a good correlation between sweat chloride and ppFEV1 up to a point. After that, you don't get more PPFEV1 benefit.
And it is for that reason, I don't think it has anything to do with which drug you use, a potentiator, a corrector or something that binds to a different location like an NBD1 that drives additional ppFEV1. It does appear to be an asymptote of lung function improvement. And maybe the easy way to think about it is these medicines don't reverse the damage already done. What they do is prevent further damage, and we have reached an asymptote of that with where we are today.
So if you ask me, do I think that there's going to be improvement in ppFEV1 regardless of mechanism after you are at the levels of ALYFTREK, TRIKAFTA, I don't think so. And you can see that in the ALYFTREK to TRIKAFTA comparison.
Okay. Turning to pove. So this drug is going to enter market with 2 currently approved drugs. One area pove is differentiated versus the other drugs in IgAN is by its presentation as a low-volume subcutaneous auto-injector delivered once every 4 weeks at home. So you've got that delivery profile benefit, but there are also clinical profile benefits that you pointed to. Maybe help us understand how you go in and take that dominant position?
Yes, absolutely. I actually think, Salveen, what you pointed out with regard to presentation or what others might call administration, I actually think that's going to be the key feature of these medicines. I'll tell you a little bit about the safety and efficacy. But one thing that's clear is the patient is not going to get the benefit if they don't take the medicine. And this medicine is chronic lifelong therapy. It is a biologic. So it's an injectable. And the ability -- the Vertex medicine is once monthly. It's subcutaneous small volume, 0.46 mL in an auto-injector. And none of the emerging medicines have that profile. And I think that, that feature is going to be amongst the most important once these medicines come out.
On safety and efficacy, the big thing to say is, in my view, as I've looked at the data, I believe pove is best-in-class based on the following features. When you look at the proteinuria reduction, so that's protein in your urine, hematuria reduction and improvements in Gd-IgA1. Gd-IgA1 is the PD or pharmacodynamic marker that is -- all those measures look best-in-class. And then when you look at the safety profile, quite favorable and you put that together with the dosing and administration elements we were talking about, I believe pove is best-in-class and is poised to be the medicine that most doctors and patients will want to take. And boy, am I excited to get this out into the hands of patients and doctors because it happens to be Vertex's first biologic, and it happens to be our first medicine in renal disease, and that's a wonderful place for a nephrologist like myself.
And do you think that Otsuka and Vera having eGFR data out that versus you will impact that uptake curve?
So the eGFR data has an interesting context point to make, and that is the FDA, so the U.S. regulatory agency has asked all companies who are going through the accelerated approval pathway to not share GFR because the study -- the Phase III study is ongoing because all of these are accelerated approvals. Once your Phase III study is complete, of course, you can share the GFR.
So one important thing is that the Phase III study has to be complete. One of the programs has completed their study, which is why they've shared data. The other 2 programs have not completed their Phase III study, which is why the Vertex program, for example, won't be sharing GFR data. I think that it's well known in the kidney community, and it is the reason for the agency, the FDA accepting proteinuria as the accelerated approval endpoint that proteinuria is very related to stabilization of GFR and that, that ultimately leads to delay of dialysis, transplantation or death, which is the real goal.
So I think that's very, very familiar. And it is indeed the renal community that worked for many years, I'd say, decades with the FDA for proteinuria to be an accelerated endpoint. So I think that's well understood. I don't think it's a big surprise that when you have, like you do with the pove medicine, good reductions in proteinuria, you're going to get stabilization in GFR when that GFR is known. I'll also say the agency has asked all of the companies to share GFR data with them, and they will make a decision about whether they're comfortable with what they're seeing before they provide the accelerated approval. So I see that as very helpful to know. And I don't see it as a big surprise. I think it's an expected outcome when you have good reductions in proteinuria that you get stabilizations in GFR.
And speak to your confidence here about this drug moving forward and translating into the follow-on indications. And for myasthenia gravis in particular, where would this be positioned in that landscape?
Sure. So in renal medicine, in IgA nephropathy, it's a 52% improvement in proteinuria change from baseline. It's some 83% on hematuria and it's some 77% on Gd-IgA1. Those are really good numbers. On the next program and therefore, the next approval, just given where it is in its cycle, I believe, will be in membranous nephropathy, another kidney disease. There, the study is a Phase II/III adaptively designed study. The Phase II portion of it has completed its enrollment, and we're now in the Phase III portion of it. That one is a traditional approval, 104-week, what's called remission. It's a combination of proteinuria and GFR. I do think that will be the second pove indication.
Third, we are prosecuting an indication called WAHA. It was in one of the basket studies that the company we acquired, Alpine had initiated. It's warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia. I think we'll have some updates for you this summer, early fall. The next one after that, which is in Phase II study is myasthenia. To your question of where do we position it in myasthenia, there's been some real advancements in this disease where when you look at the endpoints, there have been substantial improvements.
One of the difficulties, though, is that some of these medicines have to be cycled on and cycled off. In the cycled off period -- that's for safety reasons, in the cycle-off period, you can imagine autoantibodies returning and damage continuing until you can get back to the on-period. So what I expect with a drug like pove and there is another example of an APRIL BAFF inhibitor that has done a study in China that has shown remarkable benefits. These are -- you have to look and do comparisons, which have all of the challenges and have all the [Technical Difficulty] same and the benefit was remarkable.
And one of the reasons I think it has that kind of benefit is because it's a medicine you can take continuously. You don't have this cycle-on, cycle-off matter to work through. And then I think about pove compared to that APRIL BAFF, that's a wild-type medicine. Pove was specifically engineered to have better binding affinity, better potency, better tissue distribution, and that's what gives me a lot of enthusiasm and confidence for the pove program in myasthenia. That one is in Phase II. It's about 40 people. We're studying 2 doses. And I do think we will have something important to look at in the coming months.
Great. Inaxaplin. So you'll have data -- Phase II data in APOL1-mediated kidney disease with modest proteinuria and diabetes in the second half. Help us understand or frame for us how to think about this data set, recognizing we saw some data from MACE as well?
Yes. Yes, sure thing. So on inaxaplin and this disease, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, AMKD, there's 2 things to think about when you think about the Vertex program. The first is AMPLITUDE. That's the Phase III study. We completed the enrollment of the accelerated approval cohort late last year. And I expect that we'll be able to see and share results early next year. So that's AMPLITUDE.
The key thing to know and remember about AMPLITUDE is that it's a study of 2 APOL1 mutations, reduced kidney function and proteinuria. Let's call it primary AMKD. We specifically did not include people who had modest proteinuria, and we specifically did not include people with a second kidney disease, think diabetes, because those are different populations based on all of the available evidence we have.
I think those second and third populations that we discussed, modest proteinuria or diabetes are worthy of study, but they are different. So we've studied them in AMPLIFY, a Phase IIb study. There -- it's a basket study. There's about 15 to 20 patients in each arm. The arm that has a modest proteinuria is separate from the arm that is the diabetic cohort. And what we're going to be able to assess is whether or not inaxaplin works in those conditions.
The modest proteinuria cohort is important but distinct from AMPLITUDE because it has lower levels of proteinuria. That means there's a certain dynamic range and there's lower headroom to move. That's why we're studying it separately. The cohort that has diabetes, it is not clear based on all of the available literature, if when you have 2 APOL1 alleles and you have diabetes, is the kidney disease driven by the diabetes? Is it driven by the APOL1 mutations or both? It's worthy of study, as I said, and therefore, we're studying it in the separate cohort. We are fully on track to see and share those data in the back half of this year. So we'll know the answer to those questions shortly.
And for AMPLITUDE, maybe speak to the confidence and speak to the risks, but also when you look at the Phase II data that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine and kind of translate to the Phase III, the Phase II included only FSGS confirmed disease, whether that's on inclusion criteria now. So help us kind of understand that.
Yes. So now switching to AMPLITUDE, which is 2 APOL1 alleles reduced GFR or renal function and proteinuria. Remember, this is the primary cohort. We studied in Phase II the same thing, primary AMKD. That's the New England Journal publication that Salveen refers to, we saw a very impressive 47.6% reduction in proteinuria. That's really good.
In that study, we chose to evaluate patients with something called FSGS. FSGS or focal and segmental glomerulosclerosis is a histological diagnosis. You have to do a biopsy in order to know whether or not you have that. FSGS is so-called because that's what you see on biopsy. It's not to say that you don't have APOL1-mediated kidney disease if you don't have this diagnosis associated with you that says FSGS, it simply means we did not biopsy you.
We chose to do the biopsy proven FSGS because it was our first study in patients, and we wanted to make sure we knew exactly what disease you had, and we wanted to make sure we had a biopsy. But the disease you have comes from having 2 APOL1 alleles. And therefore, when we went into Phase III, we have 2 APOL1 alleles, reduced renal function and proteinuria, same as the Phase II study. And we have patients in that cohort, in that Phase III study who actually have FSGS because their doctor decided they wanted to biopsy them. And we also have patients who have all of those other characteristics, but their doctor did not decide to biopsy them.
We see that as a homogeneous patient population. That's the population we've discussed with the FDA. That's the study that's in Phase III where the accelerated -- the potential accelerated approval cohort or the interim analysis cohort will be available early next year.
Great. Switching over to JOURNAVX and your pain franchise here. You have guided that JOURNAVX prescriptions would triple in 2026. Help us understand what's driving the momentum and how to think of that growth outlook for 2027 and beyond?
Yes. So now switching to acute pain and JOURNAVX. JOURNAVX was launched about March of last year. We had the approval in January and drug in channel in March of last year. We had about 500,000-plus prescriptions in calendar year 2025, and we have guided to more than 3x that this year.
What I see in its use and as we go out and talk to physicians is broad use in accord with the label postsurgical. And in the surgical domain, it's a lot of orthopedic surgery and a lot of general surgeries. And in the nonsurgical domain, it's things like fractures or use in wisdom teeth extraction, that kind of use. And it's broad. It's 50% in hospital. It's 50% in retail with a fairly broad prescriber base.
And I like the way people who are using it consistently, particularly in the postoperative, for example, post total knee surgery or shoulder or hips, how those who have used it and were early adopters are converting practices over to this. I think that's really important to see because this is acute pain. It's not a medicine where it builds on itself with the same patients. Hopefully, a patient who has acute pain has their pain episode, takes their medicine and then they are fine.
What we then have to do here is make sure that practices convert and people reach for JOURNAVX instead of reaching for an opioid. And I like some of the early anecdotal reports around practices making that decision. I think it's really, really important to understand the need to have great reimbursement because if you're doing that, but you have to think about is my patient a Medicare patient or a private pay patient? Is it a patient that does have their insurance reimbursed or not? That adds friction to the process. And so I'm really happy now to being at the place where the 3 large PBMs are covering. The last one just started the coverage as of January of this year. 2 of the 4 large Medicare payers we have signed our contracts with them, and I'm confident we'll get to the other 2.
So as these contractual arrangements come into place and people have access, that gives us the ability to sunset the PSP or patient support programs that normalizes gross to net [Technical Difficulty] 3x the prescriptions, but more than 3x the revenue as we sunset these patient support programs.
As we look beyond that, it will get more and more to be the case as we look at '27 and beyond, where practices are making their decision to use JOURNAVX, keep opioids not as the first thing they reach for. And as these -- as patients get more access, and I think word of mouth ends up being important, social and digital ends up being more important, we are looking for even greater momentum.
Great. On your broader programs here. So in DM1 muscular disorder, Vertex is developing an internal small molecule program, but you also have in-licensed an oligo plus circular peptide approach from Entrada with Phase I/II data in the second half. Discuss your view on these assets and what you're looking for in the upcoming data?
Yes. You're exactly right. In DM1 muscular, it's a kind of muscular dystrophy that is even more common than Duchenne's muscular dystrophy. It's actually the most common muscular dystrophy out there. We have 2 approaches. The small molecule approach, which is our internal approach is still in preclinical development. So it's on the bench. But I like the progress we're making, and I think a small molecule approach has the obvious benefit of ease of use.
The lead program is an asset we in-licensed from Entrada. Here's our scientific bet. It's an oligo linked to a circular peptide. And our scientific bet is that the circular peptide will be important in localizing the oligo to where it needs to be, which is not only in the cell, but in the nucleus where it can do its work.
There are other programs that use other approaches to targeting the oligo to its appropriate location, but ours is the circular peptide approach that we think has the greatest likelihood of success. We're in Phase II development. I believe that we will have results in the back half of this year. And what we're looking for is splicing as well as early signals of muscle strength. So you [Technical Difficulty] difficult to relax and contract. So [Technical Difficulty] it's hard to let go. So there's some particular measurements we do on that. So we're going to be looking for early reads on that as well as muscle splicing.
Great. As a last question here, you do have more pipeline assets behind this. So is there anything else that you want to highlight with regard to either a pipeline asset that you think is super interesting or just your strategy or outlook for the company as we look ahead?
Okay. Let's pick 2 things. I'll pick one in Phase III, and then I'll pick something that's on the bench to whet your appetite. In Phase III, I really like the type 1 diabetes program. It's an allogeneic, so read off-the-shelf cell therapy that is in Phase III development. And I like this program a lot because the data that we shared last year in the New England shows that 10 of 12 patients treated with this cell therapy were free of insulin with excellent glucose control. That is remarkable. It's never happened with an allogeneic cell therapy.
That one is the program that you have to take immunosuppressives with, and we're working on follow-on programs with either gentler immunosuppressives or no immunosuppressives through hypoimmune cell editing.
And I'll pick one on the bench. I'll pick the NaV1.7 program. That one is very interesting because it makes so much sense scientifically and it's so elegant to imagine that we can combine a NaV1.7 with something like JOURNAVX, a NaV1.8 inhibitor, and prevent the initiation of the action potential, that's NaV1.7, and propagation of the action potential. That's still on the bench, but I like the progress that we're making, and I look forward to bringing those 2 as a combination to the pain area.
Great. Well, with that, thank you so much, Reshma.
Yes. You bet. Thank you, Salveen.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Goldman Sachs 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Execution-rich period: POVE PDUFA Nov 30, inaxaplin and DM1 readouts H2, continued JOURNAVX commercial ramp and deep Phase III pipeline.
📯 Key Message
- Summary: Vertex frames 2026–2030 as an execution window: defend and extend cystic fibrosis leadership while launching kidney, pain and rare-disease franchises. Near-term catalysts (pove PDUFA Nov 30; inaxaplin and DM1 readouts; continued JOURNAVX ramp) sit atop a deep Phase III program and sustained R&D investment.
🎯 Strategic Highlights
- CF strategy: Three next‑generation correctors (VX-828, VX-271, VX-582) aim to push more patients to carrier-level function (sweat chloride <30); VX-828 readouts expected in H2.
- POVE positioning: Filing accepted; POVE slated for Nov 30 PDUFA. Differentiated by low‑volume monthly subcutaneous auto‑injector and strong proteinuria/hematuria pharmacodynamics—management calls it best‑in‑class.
- Commercial & capital: JOURNAVX prescriptions guided to >3x in 2026 with improving PBM/Medicare coverage; capital focused on innovation and share buybacks, no dividends planned.
🆕 New Information
- PDUFA update: FDA accepted the pove filing and set a Nov 30 PDUFA; Vertex will not disclose eGFR until Phase III per FDA guidance on accelerated approvals.
- Data timing: Inaxaplin modest‑proteinuria and diabetes cohort readouts expected H2; AMPLITUDE (primary APOL1 cohort) interim/accelerated analysis slated early next year; DM1 Entrada oligo‑peptide Phase II readout also expected H2.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- ALYFTREK uptake: Management expects majority conversion over time; Europe shows faster switches (>70% in some Nordic markets) due to label/monitoring differences versus the U.S.
- CF efficacy ceiling: Vertex argues sweat‑chloride and ppFEV1 show an asymptote—further gains in lung function are limited because medicines prevent further damage but do not reverse prior damage.
- POVE vs peers: Discussion focused on administration (monthly subcutaneous auto‑injector) as a major adoption driver and on why eGFR data are embargoed until Phase III completion per FDA accelerated‑approval rules.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Takeaway: Vertex is execution‑ready with several near‑term, high‑impact catalysts (POVE PDUFA, multiple Phase II/III readouts and a commercial growth inflection from JOURNAVX). Upside depends on regulatory outcomes and data readouts; key risks are competition, regulatory timing and long-term durability for CF advances.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
1. Question Answer
Welcome, and thank you for joining us. My name is Will Pickering. I cover U.S. biotech at Bernstein. I'm privileged to be sharing the stage with Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, CEO of Vertex. The company looks very different today from just a few years ago, building on the base in CF with launches in pain, sickle cell and soon to be in IgAN. We'll dig into all of those topics and more over the next 50 minutes. I would encourage everyone in the audience to use the Pigeonhole app to submit your own questions so that we can make this as relevant for you as possible.
And with that, this being the Strategic Decisions Conference, Reshma, I'd like to start with a broad framing question. What would you say are the top strategic priorities for Vertex? And how does that align with how you're spending your own time?
Great. Well, good morning, Will, thank you for the invitation. Good morning to all of you. It's really nice to be here. Maybe 4 or 5 things to highlight in terms of strategic priorities. In terms of our products, as Will alluded to, just compared to 3 years ago, we now are in 3 distinct franchises, whereas we were in just one through the early 2020s. So for us, it's about extending our leadership in cystic fibrosis. The second is to build the next 2 franchises into blockbuster products. The one after cystic fibrosis is in hematology for sickle cell disease in beta-thalassemia with something called CASGEVY, it's a CRISPR-Cas9-based medicine that's a one and done potentially curative therapy.
The one after that is in pain, first in acute pain with something called JOURNAVX. It's a non-opioid peripherally acting nonaddictive medicine. After we get through those 3, the next big thing in our minds is our renal franchise. That franchise looks to have 4 potential medicines starting with something called povetacicept in a disease called IgA nephropathy. It's a rare disease, but it's a common rare disease with about 150,000 people in the Western world. Beyond launching these medicines, setting up that fourth vertical, which I'm sure we'll get back to. I think that's the vertical that is substantial enough to rival cystic fibrosis in terms of its overall potential.
We're also focused my time and the Executive Committee's time on building out our company for all of this innovation and this wave of products that are making their way through late-stage development and into the clinic. That means a focus on a tech-enabled workforce, how do we responsibly incorporate AI and I would say well compared to 2 years ago when I thought there was far more hype than reality. Today, I think there's a lot more reality in companies, including at Vertex and we're also gearing up and building out for things like type 1 diabetes, which is an entirely different approach using a cell-based therapy to potentially cure that disease. That takes a lot of effort, not only in the commercial build-out, but also in manufacturing.
And then to just round all that up, compared to cystic fibrosis, which is not only a genetic disease, it's also a disease with a founder effect. What that means is it's really only prevalent in Northern and Western European people and people of that descent. So that's where our business was. That's very different than something like sickle cell disease or type 1 diabetes or pain. And so we're also building out geographically. And the best example would be the flag that we planted in the Middle East in Riyadh in 2023 to bring CASGEVY to the Middle East.
On the policy front, at the industry level, when you were here last year, it was just a few months since Liberation Day. There are a lot of unknowns about tariffs, FDA, you name it. Fast forward to today, are there any sources of policy risk or uncertainty you'd call out as being especially relevant to Vertex.
Vertex is in a somewhat different position than many other companies simply by virtue of our size and what we do in maybe the thumbnail is that we're reasonably insulated from what has been going on with regard to MFN and some of the work with the larger companies. We did not receive a letter from the administration, and therefore, we haven't been inside the room in terms of the deal-making that has been reported. We have a small but mighty team in D.C. We're very aware of the conversations. We monitor them very closely, but we have not been involved in it directly because we simply haven't received a letter to be involved.
Cystic fibrosis is a rare disease. There are certain rare disease carve-outs and that's part of it. The medicine CASGEVY is a Part A medicine. So it's neither B nor D so that has a certain distance from what's going on. At the moment, we simply do not have any Part B as in boy medicine. So what is being called GLOBE doesn't apply because it applies to Part B. JOURNAVX is only a medicine that we sell in the U.S. So it doesn't have MFN because it's only for the U.S. There are, of course, some considerations for tariffs. The 282 reviews just occurred, we are making our way through it. What I would say is we have a very diverse supply chain. A large portion of our manufacturing happens right here in the U.S. And as you may have heard on our Q1 earnings we shared that we expect no impact from tariffs in '26.
And on the FDA, how is your interaction with the FDA.
Yes. Good question. Obviously, there's a lot going on, and it's uncommon to have so much discussion about the FDA. The U.S. FDA is genuinely the bright shining light on the hill in terms of policy, evolution, innovation, and there has just been a lot of disruption, and we see that with the news that's coming out with a lot of personnel changes. What I'll say for the Vertex portfolio, and we do have filings in front of the agency, we have a BLA in front of them right now. We have several INDs. We have ongoing interactions on programs in flight. We have not seen any interruption in our ability to secure meetings, to get feedback for the filings to process within the PDUFA time lines. So we haven't seen impact on our business. But clearly, there's a lot going on there.
Moving to CF. How has the Alyftrek launch performed versus your expectations? And what have been the biggest learnings or surprises?
Yes. So for those who haven't been following the CF story very closely, Alyftrek is our fifth medicine in the CF franchise. And the biggest move was when we had Trikafta approved in October of 2019. And I say that because we went from about 50%, 60% of patients being eligible up to Trikafta to 90% being eligible with Trikafta. So that was the big move to get to all of our patients. If you think about CF patients as a full 100% pie, about 5,000 cannot benefit from these CFTR modulator medicines, these pills. And the reason for that is that they don't make any CFTR protein.
So you need a different approach, we can get back to that. For the vast, vast majority, 95% of people who could benefit from these medicines with Alyftrek we're now at 95% of the patients who can benefit. So Alyftrek is a once daily medicine, Trikafta was 2 times a day. Alyftrek has more mutations than even Trikafta. And Alyftrek gets you to even lower sweat chloride levels, which is the marker of what we call the pharmacodynamic marker of this disease. So the launch has gone really well in the U.S. The launch has gone even better outside the U.S. And the reason for that difference is there are a lot more patients outside the U.S. with these ultra-rare mutations, it's just part of the genetics of the disease. And it's also the case that the labels are different in terms of monitoring in the U.S. versus outside the U.S.
There's a little bit more monitoring in the first year in the U.S. that more monitoring is not in the labels outside the U.S. So the transitions can happen a lot faster because you don't have to do this additional monitoring. But I'm really happy with how the Alyftrek launch is going. Almost all new patients in the U.S. who start on medicine same thing in the ex U.S. regions where we have approval and reimbursement, all the new patients are starting on Alyftrek. And so the bottom line on that I would say, Alyftrek is the emerging standard of care for CF. And so as we start to think about the next generation of medicines in our portfolio and what do we want to bring out next, now we're trying to beat Alyftrek. We used to try to beat Trikafta.
Thinking about the growth algorithm for CF going forward, even as the market has matured, the company has still been able to grow revenues substantially faster than population growth. What are the drivers of that? And what's your most relevant looking forward?
Yes. There are 3 or 4 drivers. The most important is patients with CF are living longer. This is a chronic medicine, patients start at the lowest age group where we have an approval. So for our oldest medicine, KALYDECO, which was approved circa 2012, 2013, we're down now to 1 month old. So they start at that age and they continue lifelong. So the biggest driver is patients are simply living longer. A second driver is this march down in age group. When we start doing our clinical trials and get approvals, we start with the adults and then we go to 5 to 11-year olds, for example, then 2- to 5-year-olds and so on and so forth. And as we bring these medicines out for the lower age groups, more people come on medicine. The next one is growth through geographic expansion. The vast majority of patients because of this founder effect that I mentioned are in Northern and Western Europe and the Americas, that's where we get regulatory approval first and reimbursement first, and then we make our way to the other countries, think Turkey, think Brazil, and there's growth in those areas.
And lastly, as we discussed when we went from SYMDEKO to Trikafta, we went from 60% eligible patients to 90%. With Alyftrek, we're up to 95% so these ultra rare mutations, and those patients now can also be treated with these medicines. You add them all up, and that's where we get the growth. I think it was about 7% growth in CF in 2025. In Q1 '26, we reported 6% growth in CF.
Turning to competition. Stock has been under a little bit of pressure heading into the competitor readout that's coming up this summer. Obviously, no one knows what the data is going to look like. But maybe speak to your confidence in the durability over the long term of the Vertex CF business, including in scenarios where the competitor meets the bar that they have set.
Yes. For those of you less familiar, there is a company that is supposed to report results from a late Phase I so let's call it a Ib study in patients with a medicine from their portfolio added to our medicine, Trikafta. So that's what we're talking about here. I think the important -- to the direct question about my confidence in the durability of our franchise, the overwhelming majority of patients who are eligible for medicine. And when I say overwhelming majority, I mean 90% plus patients who are eligible for our medicines are on medicine. They start their medicine in the case of KALYDECO at 1 month of age.
And in the case of Trikafta at 2 years of age, and they continue this for life. People take their picture and they send it to us, and they post it on social media with their Trikafta box or their Alyftrek box, there's an emotional attachment to their medicine because it's the first thing that has made them feel not like a patient anymore. And so when I see that kind of the data are spectacular with the medicine, it's the one area that I've worked in where the data actually gets better in the real world as we collect registry data and such than what you even saw in the clinical trial, I expect that our franchise will be durable for a long time to come because of safety, efficacy in the clinical trials added to safety and efficacy in the real world, added to going all the way down to the youngest age group.
It's very difficult to imagine that a child who starts on medicine that's helping them at age 2 does that -- continue with that medicine later on? Last thing I'll say is if you think about KALYDECO, which was our first medicine, the first approval was, let's say, 2012, 2013, it was in 2024 that we got down to 1 month olds. So that's a 12-year journey, and we work exceptionally fast. So that's a long time for one to be in an area and to keep that drug development effort up. We can talk very specifically about details, but I think the top line is I have very high confidence in the Vertex portfolio. At the end of the day, if somebody wants to add a medicine to Trikafta, I find that interesting. Trikafta is still a Vertex medicine.
Serial innovation has been a big part of the Vertex R&D strategy as it becomes increasingly difficult to demonstrate incremental benefit on FEV1 relative to your new products, like what's your interest in running -- collecting either longer-term outcomes data or extra pulmonary disease manifestations, just other ways of measuring the incremental value of your new products.
Yes. So Will, this is an incredibly important question because we're coming upon a time for CF that one might liken to the journey that, for example, multiple myeloma went through or disease like HIV, we're at the point where the measurements we used to use, we have reached an asymptote and so the question is an excellent one. Well, what next? I think it's actually a really, really difficult question to answer. When we look at carriers, carriers are those people who have one CF allele, they are the parents of kids with CF, for example, they have no disease that you can identify. They're fairly normal. You can think about their sweat chloride levels and the variability around that.
When we look at the Alyftrek sweat chloride levels and the variability around that, they're virtually superimposable. So we're at that -- our goal for the last 25 years was get our patients to carrier levels of sweat chloride and we seem to be approaching that asymptote so we are looking at these very long-term outcomes, like you mentioned, what happens to exocrine and endocrine pancreas function, what happens to liver function, what happens to longevity, what happens to hospitalization, lung transplant, things that take years and we do that work in registries because we're very fortunate. CF has almost 100% capture in the U.S. registry and there's an equivalent registry outside the U.S.
I don't know that it's humanly possible to do an RCT. We've done some detailed evaluations. It would be thousands of patients in a rare disease and very, very long periods of time. And I don't even know if that's really required because of the registry being as robust as it is. I'll tell you one anecdote in the country of Switzerland there are virtually no lung transplants. I think there was one done in 2024 compared to many being done for cystic fibrosis for this reason. So I think that the registry collection of these kind of long-term data are going to be very telling, which is why I go back to the durability of the franchise. It takes 5 years, 10 years, 15 years to look at longevity pulmonary transplants, hospitalizations and such, and we are fortunate to have that data.
Excellent. Moving to pove, I wanted to ask about the upcoming launch. So this is your fourth franchise, but it's also the first one in which you're competing directly with other branded therapies. How are you approaching the launch differently?
Yes. So pove is the asset that we acquired through the Alpine acquisition in 2024, it is what is called a dual APRIL/BAFF inhibitor. It's a way of modulating B cells, and it is B cells that are the bad actors for this disease, IgA nephropathy. There are other medicines that are trying to do the same thing. And what I would say is clinically, scientifically, medically, the difference for pove is that it's highly potent, has very high binding affinity, has really excellent tissue distribution and therefore, has qualities that lead to the kind of profile you've seen. We've put out a press release that hasn't been presented at a conference, it will be. But the press release was frankly a Novella. It's very detailed and you can get most of what you want to see.
The efficacy is, it looks best-in-class. The safety, it looks very favorable. And very importantly, and I want to emphasize this, this is not an add-on or a nice to have or look at that how sweet. It's very, very important. This is another chronic biological therapy. It's an injectable. You have to take it over the course of your lifetime. Our medicine is once-monthly low-volume 0.46 mLs auto-injector at home. And that suite of clinical efficacy, favorable safety profile and these characteristics, it's not the Trikafta, which is our medicine in CF, but it is the trifecta of what we are looking for in this disease. So I'm thrilled with the results. We are planning our launch as we speak.
We've hired our field force. We've deployed the first wave. We are looking to bring our high science sell approach that we have in CF to nephrology. We're looking to cover 80-plus percent of the nephrologists who serve the patients who have this disease, we're looking to bring the best-in-class patient services programs like we did in CF. And the other advantage we have is we're already well underway with additional renal diseases that could be tackled by this medicine.
So physicians -- as nephrologists as we learn how to use these medicines and as you know, we've had a dry spell in nephrology for 20 years. So this is a very new period for us with medicines that can actually tackle the underlying cause of disease. This is a medicine that we can use in multiple renal diseases, which I see as a great advantage. I happen to be a nephrologist by background and training. And so I can say that this is one of the most exciting periods that we've been through not just for Vertex in general in our field.
On the payer front, how aggressive do you expect them to be in trying to extract concessions for favorable access, particularly within the APRIL and/or APRIL/BAFF class?
Two comments on that. One is the consequence of having something like IgA nephropathy or any of these aggressively declining renal function diseases is death dialysis or transplantation. It's very obvious what's going to happen. And in that regard, those consequences are very well understood by payers, the expense of transplantation or dialysis is known and very high. And I think for that reason, payers are very educated on this field and are willing to pay for medicines that bring value. So that's a good foundation. And you can see that with the most recent launches that have happened in this area. With regard to rebates, discounts and all of that, that's part of how the U.S. system works. And it's important, therefore, to have a really high-class payer access team, and we have that.
PMN is your second indication for pove and I believe you recently completed the Phase II enrollment. Could you frame the opportunity here and compare and contrast it with IgAN?
Yes. So IgA nephropathy and PMN, primary membranous nephropathy are both what we call glomerular diseases. These are rare, but common rare diseases. If we say there's about 350,000 or so people with IgA nephropathy in the Western world and another 1 million-plus in Asia, there's about 100,000, 130,000 people with membranous nephropathy in the Western world and then add a few hundred thousand more in Asia. This membranous disease is another B-cell-mediated disease. In this one, your B cells are making antibodies to something called PLA2R. In IgAN, the B cells are making these antibodies against something called GD-IgA1. So they're similar in that there, these glomerular diseases. They're well understood. The way you know you have one of these diseases is you have a decrease in kidney function, you're spilling protein or blood in your urine, your doctor does a biopsy, and we know the diagnosis. So those are commonalities.
In membranous, we're trying to curb the amount of PLA2R in your body and we're trying to get your proteinuria down and we're trying to get your hematuria down and we get into -- we want to stabilize your renal function or you don't move on to death dialysis and transplantation, very similar goals to IgA nephropathy. There, we're trying to get your GVIGA1 down, proteinuria down, hematuria down so that you don't go on to these bad outcomes. That one, exactly, as Will said, we have our data in membranous and it's very good-looking data in something called the RUBY-3 study. It was a basket study that our Alpine colleague started. So we know that the data look really nice.
The Phase II portion of the Phase II/III study is done in terms of enrollment. The Phase III portion of the study is up and running. And this one is a traditional approval. Remember, the IgA nephropathy is an accelerated approval. This one is a traditional approval. We need to treat patients for 104 weeks, and remission is the endpoint for membranous. Same drug, though, pove. The thing that we are doing in the Phase II portion is dose-ranging pove. The dose for IgAN is 80 milligrams, and we're testing 80 and 240 for the membranous study.
Moving to AMKD, you're seeing investors begin to -- yes, yes. You're seeing investors begin to dig into that a little bit more. What are the aspects of the drug and the trial design that give you confidence for that Phase III trial that you've got? And maybe you could touch on the implications from the MAZE data that came out.
Yes, yes, definitely. So continuing with the alphabet soup of kidney diseases, AMKD is APOL1-mediated kidney disease. As I said, I was a trained nephrologist, I finished all my training in the early 2000s, this disease was not even named when I finished being a nephrologist so this disease was just described in about 2010 or so. So it's very new. It's a disease that comes about by having 2 of these APOL1 alleles. It's a disease of people from sub-Saharan Africa only. And it's a disease where you have exceptionally aggressive decline in kidney function.
So if you have 2 APOL1 alleles, you have a decline in renal function -- GFR and you're spilling protein. Those are the people we studied in our Phase III program. The Phase III program has an interim analysis built in, and we have an agreement with the FDA that if the interim analysis is positive, we have a path to accelerated approval. That interim analysis cohort completed enrollment last year. We expect results from the interim analysis in early '27. The full enrollment for the study will complete this year, and we're on track to do that. And what you're really looking for here is GFR stabilization. That's the endpoint that we and the agency have agreed to at 1 year.
That's a real move for the agency because usually unlike in certain diseases like IgAN, where they've gotten to a point of comfort for proteinuria to be the accelerated endpoint, you have to do 2 years. So that -- the study that I'm describing in AMKD is a 2-year study, if we meet the accelerated approval endpoint that we will know next year early. Will mentioned MAZE data. It's another company. And while I don't like talking about other companies, I understand that you'd like our perspective on this. So here's what I'll say. The Vertex belief is that when you are studying something like AMKD, but you add some heterogeneity into that, it is unclear what you're going to get at the other end. And so we don't do that.
So our amplitude trial, that's the Phase III study I just described is 2 APOL1 alleles, heavy proteinuria, no other kidney disease. That's who we studied. It is worthy of study to think about people who may have 2 APOL1 alleles, modest proteinuria and a low renal function. It's a perfectly good question. And we're asking that question in a separate trial called AMPLIFY, that's in Phase II. It's also worthy question to ask what about 2 APOL1 alleles and a second disease that can impact the kidney, think diabetes. It's a good question to ask. But these are different than the Phase III program because in the modest proteinuria group, you have to have some amount of headroom to show a reduction in protein. There has to be some amount of dynamic range. So we did not want to mix the modest protein group with the heavy protein group.
And if you throw in a second disease like diabetes, you don't know an epidemiology that you can study tells you it's a bit unknown how much of the contribution of renal disease is the APOL1 part of it and how much of the disease is the diabetes part of it. Our drug does not take care of diabetes. Our drug only takes care of the APOL1 part of it. So we've studied those 2 patients, modest proteinuria and what happens with a second kidney disease in a separate trial called AMPLIFY. That's in Phase II. I expect the results in the second half of this year. If the results are positive, that would mean we have the opportunity to add another 100,000 or so patients to the epi of amplitude. So we believe there's about 150,000 people or so that would be eligible based on amplitude. If this is positive, I would add another 100,000. If it is not positive, it means nothing for amplitude.
And the relationship to the other companies that they studied diabetics and nondiabetics in their Phase II trial and they made some divisions of people who have a particular kind of kidney disease, another alphabet soup term called FSGS. But by the time you do FSGS, non-FSGS diabetes, non-diabetes, there's 2 people in each cell and it's very, very difficult to tell what the answer to the question is. And so I think in retrospect, you'd say the wisdom of our decision-making was sound to do this separately. Our data from Phase II is 46.7% reduction in protein, that's a very strong number. And so I'm looking forward to the amplitude results.
Thinking a bit more Blue Sky, do you think this drug perhaps at a lower dose could help prevent AMKD in the first place?
I think it's a really interesting question. And I think it's honestly not so much about the drug as it is about the pathophysiology of disease for AMKD. The best that we understand AMKD, we understand a lot of it. It's a genetic disease. It takes 2 alleles. If you have 1 allele, it does not look like it has a risk associated with progression of kidney disease. If you have 1 allele, it prevents -- it is protective against a particular kind of disease in Africa. So it's kind of like if you think back to the malaria story. So it has all of these relationships. What the protein does is it punches pores, holes in the glomerular basement membrane, which leaks potassium, which then leads to damage in that leaks protein. But it does look like you need a second hit.
That second hit is it might be an infection. It might be an inflammatory reaction. It might be something that we can't figure out. But it does look like you need a second hit and so the prevention question is interesting because how will we know if we actually prevented the disease or you just didn't get a second hit on the disease. I also think preventative medicines are more difficult from a payer access perspective because it is hard to know whether you were or were not going to get the disease and did you prevent it. So I think the best way to do drug development in this area is look at patients with 2 APOL1 alleles with proteinuria and reduced renal function and treat them and treat them early so that they never go on to this horrible outcome of death dialysis or transplantation.
Moving to pain. Maybe you could talk about where you are in the launch today, and there's a lot of questions about when we'll start to see realized price improve?
Yes, yes, yes. So pain for us, most people divide pain into 2 categories: acute and chronic. We are Vertex, we do everything differently. So we do pain into 3 categories: acute and then we have neuropathic and then we have everything else. Neuropathic and the everything else are forms of chronic pain. But the reason we divide it that way is because we are most interested and believe that we can commercialize with our specialty sales force approach in acute and neuropathic. I believe that our medicines will work on the other think musculoskeletal pain, low back pain, I believe our medicine will work in that chronic condition, but we won't commercialize in a primary care area so we'll get to that later. So I'll put that in a box.
Right now, what we're talking about and Will's question pertains to acute pain. We've launched this medicine called JOURNAVX. It's a NaV1.8 inhibitor. It's a peripherally acting drug that is a non-opioid, does not have addictive potential. And I can say that confidently because there are no receptors to NaV1.8 centrally. This is a peripherally acting drug. We launched it in March of last year. We talked about the fact that we've had over 500,000 scripts by the end of last year. And our guidance, and I feel very confident about it is that we will 3x the number of scripts this year, and we will more than 3x the revenue this year. The use is broad, commensurate with the label, surgical and nonsurgical uses. In surgical, the bread and butter uses post hip surgery, post knee surgery orthopedic surgeons, general surgeons doing belly surgery, anesthesiologists using this medicine.
And in the community, it's fractures, sprains, acute flare up of whatever pain that ails you very broad base of prescribers. I like the depth that we're seeing and about 50% of the use is in hospital and about 50% of the use is in the community. The important point is that we see this as a franchise that we are going to build and hopefully lead in over the next not only years but decades. Acute neuropathic and we will also get to chronic, although, as I said, we won't commercialize there by ourselves because I do see that as a primary care sell. So as you think about this franchise that we're looking to build and lead over many, many years, if not decades, we want to do a couple of things, which is make sure that the pricing is commensurate to the value that this is bringing, make sure that patients and doctors who want to use this medicine have a seamless experience.
And therefore, while we go through the access which takes time that patients get the medicine. And so we have a PSP program, a patient support program. We provide free drug if the patient comes to the CVS counter or wherever they go and the drug is not yet covered by their insurance company, we cover the cost. And what that means is that the gross to net isn't yet normalized. We said that we expect the gross to net to normalize by the second half of this year. I expect that, that will happen. And I expect that the revenue will not only be commensurate with the script growth, but it will exceed the script growth as we guided to earlier in the year.
Great. One question from the audience. You've invested more in sales and marketing for JOURNAVX than originally envisioned. Is pain still a Vertexian category and is Vertex still the best owner for this drug.
Yes. I love the word Vertexian. That's how we describe ourselves. Yes, Vertex is the right group to commercialize this medicine. We secured all 3 major PBMs in terms of reimbursement at value that recognizes this innovation in less than 1 year. That is not an easy task and it is indeed Vertex who did that. On the sales force size, we are a specialty sales force company, right? That doesn't mean we are going to have a sales force that is the CF size. CF is 14. That's not specialty. That's very specially CF. We had always planned to bring more sales reps on at the right time. When the reimbursement got to be at a particular point, we thought that would be the right time to pull the trigger for a bigger sales force, and that's what we did. Because obviously, early in the launch, it was not a reimbursed medicine. There was a lot of the PSP program in play. So I know that we've been thinking about this diligently as we think about everything. The first wave was the first wave by design. The second wave was the second wave by design. And I'm looking forward to doing even more in this area.
Great. One more here on the diabetic pain study. Could you speak to how important it is to beat Lyrica versus just a placebo?
Yes. The regulators have been abundantly clear. We have to beat placebo that is what they want to see. That is the bar for regulatory approval. We decided to include a gabapentin arm in one of the 2 studies so that we had a reference group so that we can have some kind of context for the magnitude of the treatment effect, but it's extremely clear what we need to do.
Okay. You've talked about acute pain alone being a multibillion-dollar opportunity. Could you talk about the role that evidence going forward needs to play to unlock that?
Yes. So in acute pain and often is the case for medicines that are used inside the hospital setting or within a hospital network, hospitals want to do their own studies, networks want to do their own studies. And pain is very interesting, right? They have a very broad label by design. It is -- JOURNAVX is indicated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pain, whatever the etiology and we did the data package for what the regulators wanted to see. So we're doing a lot more Phase IIIb, Phase IV studies and providing a lot more data post the approval because it's such a broad label. So for example, we published some data in abstract form that has to do with the use in a variety of other surgical types, knees, shoulders, belly procedures, aesthetic procedures.
And what we're doing in this is looking to see how it's used in multimodal therapy. Of course, the regulatory -- the studies we did for regulatory approval are monotherapy because we wanted to study the pure effect safety and efficacy of a single therapy. But that's not how medicines are used in the real world. Pain medicines are using multimodal approaches so these studies that we completed are multimodal use, and we evaluated, for example, the -- what happens to opioid use and opioid use goes down compared to historical controls. And we intend to do more of this as people tell us they're interested in the use in spinal procedures or they're interested in the use. There's actually an interesting use going on in the community, especially with oral surgeons who do wisdom teeth extractions in young adults and they're particularly sensitive to not wanting to prescribe opioids. So there's a lot more study going on because there's a lot more interest.
Great. And when do you see the first NaV1.7...
So this is a really important program, a very hard nut to crack. NaV1.7 has even -- this is sodium voltage-gated channels 1.7 as opposed to 1.8, which is JOURNAVX. It has even more genetic validation than NaV1.8. The NaV1.7 is the -- you'll remember the Kindred, the family in Pakistan, who are fire walkers, they feel pressure, they're normal in every other way, except they don't feel pain. That's where the big idea came from many years ago to study 1.7s. Everyone has tried to do this, including ourselves, and we've been at it for more than 20 years. It's just a really hard nut to crack. I'm very happy with the progress that's been made. I will call it in late preclinical development.
What you can take away from that is that we have chemical matter. And the real big idea here is, I would like to leapfrog where we are, take the NaV1.7s, which I believe would work as a monotherapy, but combine them with NaV1.8s and make that combination the next wave of drug development that we do. For the uninitiated, that's scientifically very elegant to me because NaV1.7s are what's responsible for the initiation of the action potential and NaV1.8 carries that action potential. So it makes so much sense to me to combine the 2. Preclinically, what we see is NaV1.7 plus NaV1.8 has a synergistic, not additive but synergistic effect. So super exciting. I'll just leave it at late preclinical development.
Okay. Okay. On capital allocation, are you considering any change to your historical approach, for example, ramping the buyback or a larger appetite for BD?
No. I think our approach to capital allocation has worked really well. We are very interested in using our capital to support innovation, be that internal or external. You know our sandbox, you know our approach that applies equally to anything internal, anything external. Commensurate with our increasing size and our balance sheet, we are doing more stock buybacks, and I think that's a really fruitful way to return value to shareholders. So you should expect more of the same.
Okay. Okay. In the past, you've described Vertex as TA agnostic. But now that you're starting to build more of a critical mass in renal. Is there a case to be made that, that should make this more of a deliberate focus going forward?
I know it's going to sound unbelievable, but it is true. The reason we have a renal franchise is not because I'm a nephrologist. It really isn't. And we didn't go about trying to create a renal franchise. Our sandbox of diseases, and you know we are a disease first company. We're not a therapeutic area company. We're not a platform company. We are at our core and part of our strategic underpinning of our R&D strategy is to be a disease area company. AMKD, the whole alphabet soup, APOL1-mediated kidney disease, it's in our sandbox. ADPKD, which we didn't talk about, but that's another renal program in Phase II development. That's a really neat program. This is autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease because it's also a protein-folding defect, which harkens back to CF, which is also a protein-folding defect, that's in our sandbox.
IgA nephropathy was in our sandbox. Membranous was Sandbox adjacent because it's a smaller disease and we would have gone after IgAN, which is in our sandbox, but membranous just comes along because of all of those similarities. It just happens that these all are in renal. We are not anti-synergy. Please don't get me wrong. We love the fact that we have 4 diseases in a given vertical. It's fantastic. But I also don't want to leave you with the wrong impression. Our core belief is that we are really good at understanding causal mechanisms of disease and then going after those and we're not afraid if one of the diseases we understand and have deep insights in and we think we can crack that one, if it happens to be CF, which is a pulmonary disease.
And if the next one, we believe we can go after is in the kidney. We're not afraid of that. Sales and marketing is not the hardest thing in our industry. Translating basic science from the lab with higher success rates than has been industry average -- that's the big problem in our industry, and that's why we've oriented ourselves around this strategy, which we believe will lead to greater success. It's not going to be 100% success, but we believe it's going to lead to greater success.
We're nearing the end of our time today, and we hope to have you back next year. So in that vein, how do you think that Vertex could look differently as a company a year from now? And what would you highlight as especially notable for investors?
I think the biggest thing to look for is the emerging fourth franchise from the company. And it will happen to be in renal.
All right. Very good. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Will.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference
Vertex is pivoting from a single-product company to a multi‑franchise commercial biopharma with CF strength and new launches in renal, hematology and pain.
🎯 Key Message
- Franchise shift: Vertex now runs distinct franchises — cystic fibrosis (CF), hematology (CASGEVY gene‑editing), pain (JOURNAVX) and an emerging renal franchise — moving from single‑product reliance to diversified commercial growth.
- Buildout: Management is scaling commercial teams, manufacturing and responsible AI to support multiple lifelong biologics and complex launches globally.
⚡ Strategic Highlights
- CF leadership: Alyftrek (once‑daily) is becoming the new standard of care; real‑world data and pediatric expansions drive durable uptake beyond population growth.
- Povetacicept launch: Acquired renal asset shows best‑in‑class efficacy/safety per company; planned monthly 0.46 mL at‑home auto‑injector and targeted nephrology field force are in place.
- AMKD program: APOL1‑mediated kidney disease (AMKD) Phase III has an interim cohort for potential accelerated approval; interim readout expected early 2027.
🆕 New Information
- AMKD timing: Interim analysis cohort enrollment completed; readout targeted early 2027 for a potential accelerated pathway on GFR stabilization at one year.
- PMN update: Phase II enrollment for primary membranous nephropathy is complete; Phase III ongoing with traditional approval pathway requiring 104 weeks.
- Pain commercialization: JOURNAVX surpassed ~500k scripts in 2025; company expects to triple scripts and more than triple revenue in 2026 with gross‑to‑net normalizing in H2.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- CF competition: Management pushed back on competitor fears, citing strong real‑world effectiveness, lifelong use starting in young children and emotional patient loyalty as durability anchors.
- Payer access: Vertex emphasized payer education in nephrology, dialysis/transplant cost arguments, and that it has secured major PBM coverage for JOURNAVX at value‑recognizing terms.
- Trial design defence: Vertex defended narrow AMKD Phase III enrollment (two APOL1 alleles, heavy proteinuria) versus others' heterogeneous cohorts and stressed separate Phase II AMPLIFY to test broader populations.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Investment view: Execution matters: Vertex has credible commercial plans and multiple near‑term catalysts (povetacicept launch, AMKD interim, PMN/AMPLIFY data, ongoing pain roll‑out). Key risks are launch execution, payer negotiations and regulatory timing, but diversification reduces single‑asset dependency.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
All right. Well, thanks, everybody, for being here. Again, I'm Brian Abrahams, senior biotech analyst here at RBC Capital Markets. Really pleased to have our next featured company, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, represented by their CFO and COO, Charlie Wagner. Charlie, thanks so much for being here.
Yes. Thanks for having us.
So a lot I would love to cover, but why don't we start -- why don't we start with CF. It's obviously been a core driver for many years for you guys. Can we talk about the growth opportunities in CF? And maybe in the near term, can you elaborate a little bit more on the additional 800 patients you've talked about with the Trikafta and Alyftrek label expansions this year. I guess, just what we should expect the cadence of those patients coming on therapy to look like? How quickly you're seeing that happen? How much of that -- how many of those patients were already being treated off-label?
And then as we kind of look beyond that bolus, 2027 and beyond, what do you -- and some of the additional age and geographic expansions, what do you foresee as the key additional growth drivers for the CF franchise over the long term? Because it's continued to grow so nicely and you reach more and more patients. Talk to us about what the cadence looks like from here on end?
Sure thing. Yes. Listen, we are -- continue to be really excited about CF, very proud of the leadership position that we've built over the last 20 years. We have an outstanding portfolio of medicines and hundreds of thousands of patient years of experience at this point, and yet the business continues to grow. Generally speaking, the playbook in CF has been a few drivers. It's serial innovation. It is moving to younger patients. It is picking up patients with rare mutations who maybe couldn't benefit from previous generations of medicines. It is geographic -- expanding access and reimbursement through geographic expansion. And then lastly, there is a benefit from price increases as well.
You see all of those playing out in the guidance that we gave for 2026. And maybe if you don't mind me backing up, the company's guidance for the year is revenue of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion. We said that, that includes $500 million or more from Casgevy and Journavx. So implied the resulting revenue from CF, and that implies healthy growth over 2025. And it's all of those drivers. Obviously, we see the Alyftrek uptake, both in some naive patients, particularly those with rare mutations, some from patients who've discontinued from previous medicines and then significant switching for Alyftrek as well.
And we will talk about that as well.
Yes, and that's the serial innovation piece. We continue to see younger patients coming on medicine. And then we haven't talked as much about geographic expansion this year. But for example, Alyftrek, we got Alyftrek reimbursement agreements done in 11 countries in the first quarter. And then Alyftrek aside for a second, in recent years, we've expanded to markets like Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, not some of the core European markets where that drove the growth 3, 4, 5 years ago. But those markets have a significant number of patients, and we continue to try to reach CF patients wherever they are around the world.
So if you look at 2026, I would say healthy growth drivers. The themes will be the same in 2027. We are filing for approval for Alyftrek 2 to 5 late this year, Trikafta 1 to 2. And so hopefully, we would expect approvals in those younger age groups next year. You'll continue to see some geographic expansion. So very much the same themes. Year-to-year, the mix is a little bit different, but we continue to see growth in CF.
Excellent. And then maybe speaking of Alyftrek, conversion seems to be progressing steadily, I think, particularly outside of the U.S. How has this aligned with your initial vision? And are there ways to accelerate this further in the U.S.? How have -- have some of those initiatives started to take hold? And what is the level of importance on conversion? Or is this something you just will kind of step back and let play out organically over time?
Yes. Listen, it's crystal clear to us that Alyftrek [Technical Difficulty] outstanding efficacy in ppFEV1, great results on sweat chloride, great safety profile, convenience of once-a-day dosing. So it is the best CFTR modulator we have. That said, we've learned that people are super loyal to their Trikafta. And so that's not a terrible thing either.
They're doing well on it.
Yes. They're doing incredibly well. So if you look -- we have said we've described the rate of switching from Trikafta to Alyftrek in the U.S. as steady, and that continues. And to your point, certainly, the results in the first quarter were very good.
Outside the U.S., you see even, let's say, a steeper ramp Alyftrek for a couple of reasons. One, I'd say European physicians are very, very attuned to sweat chloride and the advantages of Alyftrek on-sweat chloride are very clear to them. The label is a little bit different in Europe and therefore, doesn't require liver monitoring to switch. And so there's less of an impediment there. And then lastly, there were a series of rare mutations that were picked up in the Alyftrek label, and there are more of those rare mutations in Europe than there are in the U.S. So you do see a little bit of a steeper ramp in Europe in markets where it's reimbursed.
So important, I mentioned we had 11 reimbursements in the fourth quarter. We are -- Alyftrek is reimbursed in several large markets like the U.K., Ireland, Germany, Italy, but not throughout Europe. So there are additional reimbursements to gain over the course of this year that will also fuel the Alyftrek ramp. So I would say, overall, it's been very much in line with our expectations. I think we reported in the first quarter earnings call that cumulatively now Alyftrek has surpassed the $1 billion mark since launch. And if you look at the kind of sequential ramp in the first quarter, I think things look really good for a very strong year for Alyftrek.
Excellent. Great. Let's shift gears to acute pain and Journavx. I know you guys have talked about a lot of really good progress you've made on Medicare deals, securing reimbursement access overall. What's left to do? And when should we expect that we're going to start to see the strong prescription density you're seeing pull through to revenue -- more robust revenue growth? I know there are some first quarter dynamics like inventory that may have obscured things. But maybe talk us through what's kind of the expectation on that?
Sure thing. No, listen, I personally am very excited about the Journavx launch and the progress that we're making. Again, if I could bring it back to the guidance, we said that Journavx and Casgevy combined would represent $500 million or more of revenue this year. Additionally, with regard to Journavx, we said that prescription volume would triple compared to 2025. We are off to a great start on that in the first quarter. And prescriptions will triple and revenue will more than triple because there will be a higher revenue conversion as gross to net normalized. So you can sort of take all that into account.
First quarter, you asked about progress. The progress on access has been fantastic. So we previously reported we got the third of the large PBMs signed at the very end of 2025. Those -- as you contract with those, sometimes it takes a little while for the economics to trickle down into some of the subordinate plans throughout the first quarter, but we've made very good progress there with commercial payers and are largely done. We secured a large Medicare provider in May and are in conversations with a couple of more. We would hope to have an update on that sometime this summer. We'll see. Negotiations take as long as they take basically.
But at this point, we have 240 million covered lives. And so we're really far along in terms of our expectations for coverage and certainly would hope that by the end of this year that we're not talking about access and coverage anymore. I think that would be the goal. So with that, as we gain coverage, we are able to roll back some of the free drug that's being offered through the patient support program. That, of course, in turn, helps normalize gross to net. And as that gross to net normalizes, you get better revenue conversion on the prescriptions.
So you mentioned the first quarter, we had 350,000 prescriptions, $29 million in revenue. There was -- I appreciate that outside the company, you can see revenue and you can see prescriptions. What you can't see is shipments. And so there is a little bit of a timing difference between shipments and prescriptions. And so we had a small channel inventory build in the fourth quarter that drew down in the first quarter. I'm not expecting to talk about that any further in the second quarter. And we have said publicly, we expect to see a meaningful sequential ramp in Journavx revenues in Q2.
And so we shouldn't expect that access would come with any more barriers than the free drug program? In other words, should -- will removing the free drug program change the cadence of utilization?
Yes. In our view, it should not. So we have worked very hard in these contracts to avoid things like step edits and other impediments to accessing the drug. In some cases, that's why it's taken longer to negotiate contracts. But that's -- in our view, that's well worth it. We don't want there to be impediments to accessing a drug like Journavx, and we're willing to wait and secure the right type of access at the right value. So again, now 5 quarters, if you will, into the launch, I think we're -- I think access and coverage is becoming less and less of a story, and now it's about revenue conversion.
Great. Let's talk about some of the pipeline. So on povetacicept. Our KOL feedback has indicated a huge appetite for APRIL/BAFF agents in IgAN, but maybe a little bit less certainty around how the late-stage agents differentiate from one another. What are the key learnings that you can take from the [indiscernible] launch about the market and your commercial strategy that can potentially benefit you as a fast follower there? And what do you think you need to do to convince docs around pove's differentiation, especially once -- one, if not more, of the other competitor drugs potentially do have a once-monthly subcu label?
Yes. No, I appreciate the question, and it's good that your KOL checks match ours, which is that for those docs that distinguish between APRIL and APRIL/BAFF, there's a very strong preference for APRIL/BAFF. I would say we've said with pove, it's an engineered fusion protein that engineering leads to greater binding affinity and potency and PK distribution. So pove really is designed to be optimal for impacting APRIL/BAFF.
We've talked about the profile. You saw the results from the trial that we published recently, 52% reduction in UPCR, 77% reduction in Gd-IgA autoantibodies, resolution of hematuria. So across -- and that was true -- the numbers aren't -- that the efficacy impact was true across all cohorts. So gender, age, race, geography. Importantly, the impact is deep and sustained across all types of patients, which we think is very powerful.
Additionally, the safety profile was excellent. No SAEs attributed to pove. No serious -- very low incidences of serious infection, similar to what we saw with placebo. Nobody discontinued the trial because of SAEs or serious infections. So a great profile there. And then lastly, we do think the presentation of the drug, the patient factors are important as well. It's a low dose, 0.46 mL monthly dosing auto-injector. So the convenience -- not just convenience, these drugs only work if you take them. And if you're worried about a self-injection, a format like pove is outstanding.
So we think it's the Trikafta, if you will. It's the combination of those factors that really differentiate pove, and we are certainly in our pre-approval conversations out there emphasizing those benefits. You asked specifically about the Otsuka launch. It seems like the launch is off to a good start, right? And that's great. I think our view is that this is a huge market with a lot of unmet need: 160,000 patients in the U.S., more than enough room for multiple transformative therapies. I have no doubt our view is that pove is a best-in-class offering, and we intend to be delivering that message consistently.
But the early signs on that launch are promising because there are patients there that are eager for access to transformative medicines. Timing-wise, obviously, we have submitted for accelerated approval. We're waiting for acceptance of the filing, hopefully very soon. And if that is the case, then we would at least be on track for the possibility of accelerated approval at the end of the year.
Okay. We're coming up on eGFR data from Otsuka in the very near term. So I guess what do you guys think constitutes good data versus not good data? And what's good for Vertex and pove?
In our data or in their data?
In their data. Because this has the potential to validate the connection of proteinuria -- further validate the connection of proteinuria, validate I think is eGFR, further validate time if there's room for improvement, that could also benefit you guys. I'm curious what you guys are expecting, looking for or hoping to see.
I think the literature and the KOL view and our view is that proteinuria reduction and eGFR stabilization are very, very highly correlated. You see that in the data from the RUBY trial and from other companies' trials that there is a high correlation there. So I suppose with the Otsuka eGFR data, we're not expecting any surprises. I think the correlation is well understood. But we'll see.
With pove, again, part of the filing for the accelerated approval, we're submitting, of course, UPCR and eGFR data. We're not able, because of agency restrictions, can't communicate the eGFR data at this point. But given the high correlation between the 2 markers, we're not expecting any surprises there.
Okay. And then beyond IgAN, you have a program in gMG, generalized myasthenia gravis as well. How important is that market? And how quickly can you move into a pivotal study there?
Yes. So as we talk about gMG, we should just talk a little bit about PMN as well. I think between IgAN, PMN and gMG, you can already see validation of the thesis that we had about pove being a pipeline and a product. And I am personally really happy to see that playing out so quickly. So we do have a trial ongoing in PMN as well, Phase II/III there.
Specifically, you asked about gMG. We think that pove is really well suited for gMG. GMG is sort of a prototypical B-cell-mediated disease. The majority of patients with gMG have elevated BAFF/APRIL levels. Pove targets BAFF/APRIL. So we really feel confident that it's a good fit. There is -- as you well know, there is data from another company in China that shows that these mechanisms can have a serious -- a significant impact on gMG. And so for those reasons, we had confidence in moving forward into a Phase II trial.
I can't really give you an expectation on timing. That trial is enrolling and it will take as long as it takes. But we do think pove is well suited, not only because of the mechanism and the impact on BAFF/APRIL, but also because some of the existing medicines for gMG have limitations because patients have to cycle on and off because of concerns about adverse events, whereas we believe pove is going to be able to be dosed chronically given the safety profile and that consistency of action on the disease, we think is valuable. So we think there's a great opportunity. We think pove is very well suited to it, but we'll let the data speak for itself.
Okay. Good. Going back to CF for a second and on the -- maybe some of the next-generation agents. I know you have several in development, 828, 581, 272. You guys have been serial innovators in the space. I guess when would you make a go -- what will you be looking for to guide a go/no-go decision there? And if you see some early biomarker data that looks strong, are there ways to potentially craft a pivotal program to potentially enable a next-gen to reach the market even if you may already be at a ceiling in FEV1 with Trikafta and Alyftrek? Like I guess, how can you do -- what are you looking to try to show so these next-generation drugs can actually do better than what's out there, sort of high bar you've set?
Yes. And if you don't mind, I'll just kind of reaching back to what I said earlier, Alyftrek is the best CFTR modulator on the market. We think the benefits even over Trikafta are meaningful. And so it sets a really high bar for subsequent development by us or anybody else for that matter. That said, given our decades of leadership and our commitment to the CF community, we're going to keep trying to do better than Alyftrek.
One of your questions was about when -- what are we looking for and when will we advance. And I think the answer is that we want to keep that to ourselves right now. So we will have data on 828 later this year. Of course, we'll be looking at things like safety and tolerability and sweat chloride, looking at some other dimensions as well. Behind 828, we have 2 other molecules as well, and they're not so far behind 828. So there's a scenario where we wait to see which is sort of the strongest horse in the stable there or it's possible that the data is so compelling that we move right ahead. So we're going to reserve the right to make that choice. In terms of trial design...
How do you move ahead?
And going faster. I mean, listen, the agency is pretty clear on endpoints for CF trials and they're crystal clear on the existing standard of care. So while we like to think of ourselves as always innovating, including in our approaches to regulatory, I think the reality is that we or anybody else is going to have to run a full large trial against the standard of care. And so I'm not sure there is a way to make that go faster, again, for us or anybody else.
Okay. Maybe just in the last few minutes, you guys are in a pretty favorable capital position. In fact, we did an analysis, and this was sort of back of the envelope. But from what we can tell, you're one of only 2 large biopharma companies that are net cash positive that don't have net debt. You've had some time now to absorb Alpine. I guess where do you stand with regards to that overall integration? And just because you're in a favorable capital position doesn't mean you need to necessarily deploy your capital and you can be opportunistic. You have -- but how do you think about that overall? What's your appetite for looking externally at BD opportunities? Do you like what's out there? Where might you go? What are the ways you might deploy this capital?
Yes. It's a great question. And it's -- in my 7 years with the company, it's been very interesting, which 7 years in the scheme of things isn't that long, and the company had only become cash flow positive slightly before that, right? So we don't have a long history with capital deployment. But that said, in the 7 years, I think we've been pretty responsible.
So top priority does continue to be investment in innovation, both internally and externally. So we have an appetite for BD. I am really proud that we got the Alpine deal done in 2024. And again, like I said, it was the right deal, the right disease, the right size, the right stage of development. And I think the whole -- not only pove and IgAN, but the pipeline and the product really is validated by what we're seeing. So that's encouraging.
It's fully integrated at this point. And so the organization has capacity. I mean it was a significant effort to integrate it and accelerate it, but that -- I think it's in a steady state right now. So BD continues to be a top priority. Maybe the only challenge, and I think it's a good one, is that we have incredibly high standards for science and medicine. So there just aren't a lot of assets or companies that kind of clear the hurdle for us. But when we find one that does, we move decisively, and that's what we did with Alpine.
So we are active in BD. We'll continue to be active and do what we need to grow the portfolio. As a secondary use of capital, we've also scaled our share buyback program over the last several years. Again, at the beginning of my tenure, we had a $500 million authorization. We currently have a $4 billion authorization. And we lean into that authorization in periods when we think the stock is not priced correctly. And so there have been periods where we've been very light in terms of share repurchase, periods where we've been very heavy in terms of share repurchase. And so I like the flexibility of that program, the combination of innovation and share buybacks. That's likely -- that's certainly the right order of priority, and that's the program for the next little while.
Any particular profile of what you might be looking for externally? Are you looking for the next Alpine, like pipeline in a product, derisked late-stage specialty indication? Or might the next BD transaction be larger, smaller, different in profile?
Obviously, hesitant to try to characterize that. Again, Alpine was a wonderful deal. And of course, if we could find something similar, given the great experience we had with that, it would be wonderful. But we're -- much like we're modality agnostic, we're a bit agnostic on BD too, which is there are certain programs where what we need is early-stage technology or access to capabilities. We'll go get that. But yes, if we can find something that is further along in development where we can still add value, either clinically or regulatory or commercial, that's a great fit for us. And I think we have the confidence and the positive experience from Alpine to stay active.
Great. Out of time. Charlie, thank you so much. Really great to speak with you.
Yes. Brian, thanks for having us.
Appreciate it.
Appreciate it.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — RBC Capital Markets Global Healthcare Conference 2026
Vertex emphasized steady CF franchise growth, accelerating commercial momentum for Journavx and Alyftrek, and a potentially catalytic povetacicept (pove) filing.
🎯 Key Message
- Takeaway: Cystic fibrosis (CF) remains the core growth engine via serial product innovation, younger-patient and rare‑mutation expansions, geographic reimbursement gains and price; 2026 revenue guidance $12.95–13.1B includes $500M+ from Casgevy and Journavx.
⚡ Strategic Highlights
- CF growth: Management expects continued year‑over‑year CF growth driven by Alyftrek uptake, filings to expand use into younger ages (Trikafta and Alyftrek filings for pediatric cohorts), and new country reimbursements.
- Commercial traction: Alyftrek surpassed $1B cumulative since launch and added 11 country reimbursements; Journavx has 240M covered lives, strong prescription growth (350k scripts in Q1) and management expects a meaningful Q2 revenue ramp.
- Pove profile: Povetacicept showed a 52% UPCR (urine protein‑to‑creatinine ratio) reduction and favorable safety; Vertex submitted for accelerated approval and expects filing acceptance/possible decision timeline by year‑end.
🆕 New Information
- New: Specific commercial datapoints: Alyftrek reimbursement wins in Q1 across major EU markets; Journavx Q1 shipments/revenue timing caused minor channel inventory effects (350k scripts, $29M revenue) and management expects normalized gross‑to‑net and stronger Q2 revenue.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- CF cadence: Management: US switching to Alyftrek is "steady" vs faster ramps in parts of Europe (label/liver‑monitoring differences and rare mutations drive adoption).
- Journavx access: Payer negotiations largely complete for commercial PBMs, Medicare conversations ongoing; removing free‑drug support should not introduce new utilization barriers and will improve revenue conversion.
- Pove differentiation: Vertex argues superior binding/PK, deep sustained proteinuria reductions and a low‑volume monthly auto‑injector aid adoption; accelerated approval filing submitted and other competitors' eGFR readouts may validate the class but Vertex expects correlation between proteinuria and eGFR.
🔍 Bottom Line
- Conclusion: The event reinforced a clear, executable commercial plan: CF and Alyftrek remain the backbone, Journavx is moving from access to revenue conversion with near‑term upside, and pove is a material pipeline catalyst if accelerated approval proceeds; capital allocation stays focused on R&D/BD and opportunistic buybacks.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the Vertex Pharmaceuticals First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Susie Lisa.
Good evening, all. My name is Susie Lisa, and as the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, it is my pleasure to welcome you to our first quarter 2026 financial results conference Call. On tonight's call, making prepared remarks, we have Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, Vertex's CEO and President; Charlie Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer; and Duncan McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. The call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.
We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements, including, without limitation, those regarding Vertex's marketed medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, beta thalassemia and moderate to severe acute pain, our pipeline and Vertex's future financial performance are based on management's current assumptions. Actual outcomes and events could differ materially. I would also note that select financial results and guidance that we will review on the call this evening are presented on a non-GAAP basis.
I'll now turn the call over to Reshma.
Thanks, Susie. Good evening all, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Vertex is off to a terrific start in 2026. which we see as a year defined by execution. Q1 revenue growth was strong across the portfolio as we reach more patients with more products and delivered total product revenue of $2.99 billion, reflecting 8% growth year-on-year. Importantly, we achieved key commercial milestones for each of the newer products since launch through end of Q1. A lift Trek exceeded $1 billion in cumulative revenue. More than 500 people have initiated their Kasei treatment journey. and over 1 million prescriptions have been written for dynamics.
Another highlight in Q1 was that products from the new disease areas, namely Cassebi and Gernavics, drove approximately 25% of total product revenue growth. Execution in R&D was equally strong with multiple regulatory submissions recently completed and more anticipated combined with rapid progress across clinical trials and important advancement in research. Let me spotlight a few accomplishments.
First, on Pove, the interim analysis results from the Phase III RAINIER study in IgAN on efficacy and safety from top to bottom, were sparkling and further fueled our enthusiasm for POV as a potentially best-in-class bath April inhibitor. I was exceptionally pleased with the rapidity and quality of the recently submitted BLA filing for pove in IgAN, indeed, at 27 days from database lock to regulatory submission. This was the fastest submission in Vertex history. Equally notable is the urgency with which the pove primary membranous nephropathy and the povymyasthenia gravis programs are advancing. In membranes, the Phase II study has been fully enrolled and the Phase III program has already initiated.
In addition, the Phase II proof-of-concept myasthenia gravis trial is underway. Second, on Casey, I'm also very pleased with the rapidity and quality of this SBLA submission forecast Jebi in 5 to 11-year-olds with sickle cell disease or beta-thalassemia. The Cascevi filing has been granted a Commissioner's National Priority Voucher reflecting the importance of treating this younger age group before some of the most serious complications of the disease can begin.
Overall, Vertex continues to extend its leadership in CF, drive growth with new product launches while building out our next disease area franchise in nephrology, accelerate programs in mid- and late-stage development and advance the earlier stage R&D pipeline. Tonight, I'll limit my R&D comments to CF as well as the pipeline programs with the most significant new information to share certain renal programs, ovine myasthenia gravis and zumilacell in type 1 diabetes.
Starting with CF, 4 quick R&D updates for this quarter. We recently reached a significant milestone in the U.S. with label expansions for both liftrec and Trikafta with this expansion, patients with a clinical diagnosis of CF who have at least 1 variant in the CFTR gene that is responsive based on clinical and/or in vitro data are now covered by the Lift Trek and Trikafta labels. reinforcing the impact of these medicines regardless of the location of the variant in the CFTR protein.
This is a significant expansion of eligibility that reflects decades of investment, effort and a relentless pursuit of the science. It is also a great example of innovation using results from clinical trials complemented by in vitro data to expand the benefit of Vertex CFTR modulators to about 95% of people with CF including those with rare and even NF-1 genotypes. As we expand the liftrec and Trikafta labels to additional mutations, we're also expanding the label to younger patients.
We will soon submit for approval for lift trek in patients 2 to 5 years of age, where you may recall our pivotal trial demonstrated a remarkable 65% of children reaching normal levels of CFTR function and we also plan to submit for Trikafta in children 1 to 2 years of age in the near term. In addition, we continue to advance our next-generation 3.0 CFTR modulators, including VX 828, which is currently in a study of patients with CF. We are on track to complete the study and share results in the second half of this year.
Following closely behind VX 828 in the family of NextGen 3.0RVX581 and VX-272, both of which are currently in the clinic in Phase I healthy volunteer studies, as we have consistently said if it is possible to do better in CF, we're committed to being the ones who do so.
And finally, on VX 522, the mRNA therapy we've been developing for people who produce no CFTR protein and therefore, cannot benefit from our modulators, we previously disclosed tolerability issues in this program despite actions we have taken in the trial to overcome these issues, we have not been able to do so. And as such, we have chosen to discontinue the program. Given this early termination, we will not be able to assess the efficacy or full safety of VX 522.
We will be working with sites to close out the study in the coming weeks. Moving on to our renal franchise, which continues to make quick progress and is rapidly establishing itself as Vertex's fourth franchise along CF, heme and pain. In total, we have 4 programs in mid- and late-stage development in renal. PoviandiGaN, Pova primary membranous nephropathy, enaxiplinin AMKD and VX-407 AV PKD. Tonight, I'll cover the first 3 programs, starting with Pope and IgAN. Recall Poby's differentiated potential best-in-class profile stems from its specific design as an engineered tachyfusion protein with binding affinity, potency and PK properties that deliver optimal dual BAF APRIL inhibition.
The dual inhibition and engineering advantage is evident in both the interim analysis data of the RAINIER study where we saw rapid deep and sustained improvement in proteinuria, a favorable safety profile and consistency across all subgroups as well as in 3 key patient dosing benefits, once monthly dosing, small volume and subcutaneous administration via an auto-injector.
Overall, the Phase III interim analysis data represent a home run in terms of study design, execution and the results with Pulvy achieving statistically significant and clinically meaningful results across all primary and secondary end points. Patients in this trial received excellent standard of care with high rates of background medicines, including the highest rates of SGLT2s seen in any EGAN study. Baseline characteristics were well matched to real-world IGAM patients in terms of age, renal function and degree of proteinuria.
In addition, as a measure of study quality, it's important to look at discontinuations. In this study, treatment discontinuations were low and trial discontinuations were even lower at a rate of 1.5% on the placebo group and 0.8% in the POV Group. To replay the top line primary and secondary efficacy results, for the primary endpoint, Pulvy achieved a 52% reduction from baseline in proteinuria as measured by 24-hour UPCR. That's a 49.8% reduction versus placebo.
For the first secondary endpoint, Hobi treatment led to a 77.4% reduction from baseline in serum GDIgA1 levels. That's a 79.3% reduction versus placebo. For the second secondary endpoint of those patients with hematuria baseline, 85.1% poly treated patients achieved hematuria resolution, which is a 61.7% reduction versus placebo. In addition, 42.2% of patients reached the exploratory endpoint of 24 UPCR of less than 0.5 grams per gram, an important clinical threshold.
These are remarkable results and particularly noteworthy, considering that at the time of the interim analysis, patients had received just 36 weeks of cobi treatment. On safety, Popi was generally safe and well tolerated. The majority of adverse events were mild to moderate, and there were no serious adverse events related to Povi. Importantly, in terms of infections, most were mild to moderate. The rate of SAEs of infection was low at 0.5%, observed in both the placebo and pub groups. There were no opportunistic infections and no discontinuations related to POV overall, including no discontinuations due to infections.
Lastly, on antidrug antibodies, or ADAs, ADAs were observed as expected with biologics, but had no impact on Poby's efficacy or risk profile. We look forward to sharing more details of the interim analysis results and anticipate doing so at upcoming medical meetings this fall. Shifting to Pova primary membranous nephropathy, I am pleased to share we have completed enrollment of the Phase II portion of the Olympus Phase II/III study and have already initiated the Phase III portion ahead of our previously announced mid 2026 goal.
And finally, on Pobi, as part of its pipeline and a product potential for B-cell mediated diseases beyond renal, I'm also pleased to share that the Phase II proof-of-concept study of POV in generalized myasthenia is underway. This is a 30-patient study of people with GMG evaluating both the 80 and 240-milligram dose for 12 weeks with the primary endpoints of safety and the percent change from baseline in IgG at week 12. The rationale for studying pop in myasthenia is compelling. It's a serious B-cell mediated disease with high morbidity affecting approximately 175,000 people in the U.S. and Europe. There is high unmet need as current therapies have meaningful limitations, which means there is room for improved efficacy, a better benefit risk profile and more patient-friendly dosing and administration, which we have discussed in the context of IgAN as being critically important when considering a chronic biologics market.
We believe Povy's mechanism of action striking at the heart of autoantibody production with an engineered protein format provides best-in-class promise in myasthenia and we are excited to develop this opportunity. Shifting back to Renal to finish up with the maxaplin in APOL1-mediated kidney disease or AMKD. First, on amplitude, the pivotal Phase III study of primary AMKD, that is to say patients with 2 APOL1 variants perneuric kidney disease and no other renal-related comorbidities. We are on track to conduct the interim analysis, which occurs after 48 weeks of treatment and to share data from this cohort in early 2027.
If positive, we will be poised to file for potential accelerated approval in the U.S. thereafter. Second, on AMPLIFY, our Phase IIb study of enaxiplin in separate populations. Patients with 2 APOL1 variants, modest proteinuria and no other kidney disease and patients with 2 APOL1 variants moderate to severe proteinuria and a second disease, type 2 diabetes that could impact the kidney. These 2 populations are not being studied in amplitude. We recently completed enrollment in the AMPLIFY study, which is a study of 13 weeks in duration.
Given the clear differences in these populations, we made the decision early on to study them in separate trials. Emerging data in the field confirm the wisdom of this decision. We are excited to learn from the amplified study and look forward to sharing results in the second half of this year.
Finally, on type 1 diabetes, a reminder that zomilacel has very strong clinical results to date as detailed in last year's New England Journal of Medicine among patients who received a full dose and had at least 1 year of follow-up 10 out of 12 patients were insulin free. These results are unprecedented and are particularly noteworthy, given that these patients are those with 20-plus years of type 1 diabetes, undetectable endogenous insulin production at baseline, taking 40-plus units of exogenous insulin per day and with 2 or more severe hypoglycemic events per year despite best available care.
You may recall that in the second half of last year, we paused dosing of the Phase I/II/III study in order to conduct a manufacturing analysis, which we have now completed. I am pleased to report that dosing in the study has resumed and multiple patients have been dosed. With dosing now restarted, we will update you in the coming months on the revised time lines for study completion and regulatory filings.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Duncan for a commercial update.
Thanks very much, Reshma. I'll start with CF, which continues to perform very well. Year-over-year revenue growth was 6% globally balanced nicely between U.S. growth of 5% and international growth of 8% in quarter 1. Global growth reflects continued lift track uptake as its once-daily dosing and improved sweat chloride profile continue to resonate with the clinical and patient communities. As mentioned, Aliftreck has now surpassed $1 billion in cumulative global revenue since its approval in the U.S. in late December 2024 and Europe in July 2025.
Outside the U.S., we have signed reimbursement agreements in 11 countries for Aliftreck in quarter 1 alone, building on the access generated in the second half of last year. The tremendous scientific and regulatory achievements represented by the label expansions for Eliftrec and Trikafta also represent a meaningful incremental commercial opportunity of approximately 800 people in CF who are newly eligible in the U.S. This broad labeling is 1 of several key CF growth drivers for the remainder of 2026, along with the global rollout of a lift track, treating younger patients and expanding into additional geographies.
We have worked closely with the CF population for 2 decades and remain focused on continuing to serve the CF community and expand our leadership across all genotypes, age groups and geographies. Shifting to heme, the rollout of Cash Jebi continues to gather momentum across all 3 regions, and I'm pleased to highlight another significant commercial milestone since launch. Over 500 patients have now initiated the Caster treatment journey. Hundreds have had their first cell collection and many patients have had their cells edited and are ready for infusion.
During the first quarter, we delivered $43 million in cash Jebi revenue. Importantly, we worked on securing a pricing agreement for Cash Jebi in Germany in quarter 1 and are currently working through the implementation steps. This is a historic moment and we're excited that German patients with sickle cell disease and TDT may soon be benefiting from long-term access to Cascevy at a sustainable price.
Overall, we are very encouraged by the robust flow of patients in the U.S., in Europe and the Middle East moving from referral to cell collection and infusion. First quarter revenue reflects expected variability quarter-to-quarter as patients choose the timing for their infusion that suits them best. For the full year 2026, the Casey outlook is very promising as we have built our ATC network, secured reimbursements and now have many patients at all stages of the treatment journey.
We, therefore, have very strong visibility to revenue for the rest of 2026 for Cash Jebi to contribute meaningfully to our $500 million plus revenue goal for non-CF products this year and towards CashJevy's ultimate multibillion-dollar potential for genetics in moderate to severe acute pain, prescriptions, prescribers and awareness all continue to build. More than 350,000 prescriptions were filled in the quarter compared to approximately 550,000 in all of 2025, which was in line with our expectations.
We also surpassed the milestone of over 1 million genomics prescriptions written since launch. Prescriptions this quarter were once again split roughly 50-50 between the hospital and retail channels and generated $29 million in revenue, also in line with our expectations. Overall, prescription growth remained strong, although quarter 1 revenue reflects some normal inventory destocking. We remain on track to more than triple the 550,000 prescriptions from 2025 and for revenue growth to significantly exceed prescription growth.
I'll now outline some of the key drivers of our continued growth and expected success for genetics in 2026. Firstly, physician and patient clinical experiences on generics continue to be excellent, which provides a great foundation for continued growth. We also continue to see outstanding breadth of physician uptake as well as generics additions to hospital and IDN formularies, protocols and order sets. Secondly, we continue to make good progress in the payer space with 240 million lives now covered. In addition to the big 3 commercial PBMs, I'm delighted to announce that we've reached an agreement with the first of the Big 4 Medicare Part D plans to start covering genetics effective as of May 1, given the multiple and well-documented challenges that opioids present seniors, this is welcome news, and we are in discussions with the remaining Medicare Part D plans as well as the smaller regional plans.
Thirdly, we have completed doubling the size of our field force to 300 representatives slightly ahead of plan. As we've communicated before, Genavics is highly promotionally responsive, and we're excited about the impact of this new field team on Genavics growth. Lastly, we also continue to execute multiple initiatives to drive awareness, growth and provide new mechanisms for patient access, including the launch of Vertex's first direct-to-patient telehealth platform informed pain care.
This platform is accessible from genavics.com and provides appropriate and independent telehealth evaluations for nonsurgical acute pain patients, if eligible. We're also pleased that Genavics was recently added to the list of non-opioid medicines eligible for separate payments under the no pain Act effective retroactively to January 23.
In summary, with the increased size of our field organization, our continued progress in securing payer and hospital coverage as well as strong gains in formulary status, we remain confident we will triple prescriptions for genomics in 2026. In addition, our strong reimbursement progress continues to position us to taper our patient support program over the course of 2026 and enter 2027 with a normalized gross to net. We continue to expect Genavics to contribute meaningfully to the $500 million plus we expect in revenue outside CF this year.
I'll conclude with an update on the commercial initiatives for our emerging renal business. We're investing in the nephrology community for the long term and povetasercept is the first in a series of potentially transformative medicines that tackle the underlying cause of 4 serious renal diseases, namely IGAN, PMN, AMKD, and ADPKD. We were thrilled with the interim analysis results of the Rainier Phase III study with excellent results across the board in efficacy, safety across all subgroups and in the areas of greatest interest in nephrologists and patients. The results create a superb foundation for the commercial launch of a potentially best-in-class medicine.
Our goal for povetatercept is to be physicians first choice for their IgAN patients given Povi's compelling trifecta of differentiated efficacy results, well-tolerated profile and patient-centric administration characteristics due to its low-volume monthly dosing via subcu auto-injector. Based on our market research and discussions with nephrologists plus feedback from our field team engagements, we know nephrologists are looking for treatments in IgAN that meaningfully and rapidly reduce proteinuria in the patients they treat. As they see proteinuria as the key indicator of where the patient is headed clinically. nephrologists also seek a favorable tolerability profile and both physicians and patients communicate to us the need for a seamless treatment experience, which includes everything from access to patient support, to monthly dosing size of dose and administration in an auto-injector.
We believe that uniquely POV has the clinical profile and that Vertex has the capabilities to meet all of these needs. Our renal field force will be specialty-sized and large enough to cover nephrologists who see approximately 80% of U.S. IgAN patients. We will target key facilities that represent a combination of renal centers of excellence, glomerular disease clinics and key high-volume private practices. Our payer conversations are proceeding well in a U.S. market where approximately 70% of patients have commercial coverage.
We have a proven track record in securing broad and rapid access for our medicines and plan to establish the same for POV and IgAN. And lastly, we know that the quality of the patient support provided is critical in the biologics space. With that in mind, Vertex programs to support POV patients will enable speed to therapy and personalized support through the treatment journey, delivering a seamless experience of onboarding for patients and physicians alike. Hovi and GaN is the first component of our emerging renal franchise. We're excited to bring it to nephrologists and their patients.
Based upon our work with them, we know they're excited to try it as well. we believe POV delivers exactly what nephrologists are looking for in IgAN and just as we've done for over a decade in CF, HOV success will be driven by a field force delivering a high science cell fueled by a potentially best-in-class product, broad reimbursement and robust and high-quality patient programs. We are very excited to begin building our fourth commercial pillar and creating another multibillion-dollar franchise in Vertex.I'll now turn the call over to Charlie to review the financials.
Thanks, Duncan. As Reshma noted, Vertex's Q1 2026 results demonstrate our consistent strong performance and attractive growth profile. First quarter 2026 total revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $2.99 billion. CF Global revenue increased 6% year-over-year, and new disease areas also contributed with Casjevy delivering $43 million and Gernavics $29 million in Q1 sales. representing about 25% of total year-over-year growth for the quarter.
By region, U.S. revenue growth of 7% year-over-year was driven by continued steady performance in CF and growing contributions from Casey and genetics. International revenue grew 9% year-over-year, driven by continued CF expansion and increasing contribution from Cascevi and as anticipated, a benefit from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange. First quarter 2026 combined non-GAAP R&D acquired IP R&D and SG&A expenses were $1.29 billion, an increase of 5% compared to $1.23 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
Within total OpEx, non-GAAP R&D expenses were down 2% year-over-year partly driven by the timing and mix of certain clinical trial expenses. In addition, certain Pogey manufacturing expenses were included in R&D in 2025 and are now recorded in cost of sales following the positive interim analysis data. Non-GAAP SG&A expenses increased 30% year-over-year, driven primarily by commercial investments, with roughly 40% attributable to Genavics in pain and approximately 1/3 to renal launch programs.
We also recorded $1 million in IP R&D expense in the quarter versus $20 million in the first quarter of 2025. First quarter 2026 non-GAAP operating income was $1.31 billion compared to $1.18 billion in non-GAAP operating income in the first quarter of 2025. First quarter 2026 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 19.6%. First quarter 2026 non-GAAP net income was $1.1 billion, an increase of $93 million compared to the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to increased product revenue, partially offset by increased operating and income tax expenses in the first quarter of 2026.
First quarter 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.47 compared to $4.06 in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting our strong revenue growth and disciplined expense management. We ended the quarter with $13 billion in cash and investments after deploying approximately $344 million to repurchase more than 741,000 shares in the first quarter. This activity reflects our ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining the flexibility to act on strategic growth opportunities.
Overall, our priorities for cash deployment remain unchanged with a primary focus on investing in innovation. Now switching to guidance. We are reiterating our 2026 total revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, representing growth of 8% to 9%. This outlook reflects continued solid performance from the CF franchise, driven by the Elliptic launch expansion into younger patient groups, incremental patients from the label expansion and geographic expansion. We continue to have high confidence in our outlook for revenue of $500 million or more from non-CF products driven by growing cash JV infusions, where we have good line of sight given the length of the patient journey and the meaningful ramp in Gernavic's prescriptions and revenue as gross to net normalizes through the second half of the year.
Lastly, our revenue outlook continues to include an expected impact from foreign exchange, net of our hedging program. Our outlook for full year gross margin remains at just under 86%, reflecting the growing non-CF product mix impact and ongoing investments in manufacturing network and process development for various products. We are also reiterating our combined non-GAAP operating expense guidance of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion reflecting continued investment in our late-stage clinical pipeline and commercial infrastructure and activities for new launches and revenue diversification.
We also continue to expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for the full year 2026. On the subject of tariffs, we do not expect any material impact to the income statement in 2026. We continue to evaluate the details of recent announcements and the potential applicability to Vertex.
In summary, Q1 2026 was a very strong start to the year. Financial results are on track, commercial launches and diversification are gaining momentum, and we continue with targeted investment, both in innovation and commercialization as the pipeline is advancing across our multiple disease areas. Our increasingly diversified commercial portfolio now spanning 3 disease areas and soon to before with the establishment of the renal franchise is driving new revenue streams and adding to our near- and long-term growth profile. Vertex is well positioned to continue expanding its impact for patients, investors and all stakeholders.
These and other anticipated milestones of continued progress in multiple disease areas are detailed on Slide 17. We look forward to updating you on our progress on future calls.
I'll now ask Susie to begin the Q&A period.
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question for today will come from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
2. Question Answer
So you've talked about renal 1 day rivaling the cystic fibrosis business in size. Can you speak to what needs to play out from here to realize that vision? And among your renal assets, which you see having the greatest long-term revenue potential?
Jess, this is Reshma. I guess as a nephrologist at the company, maybe I can take this and Duncan, please feel free to add. So just what we're talking about in our emerging renal franchises for assets, Kobi 4 diseases for the assets, Kobi for Povormembraness, a axipline for AMKB and what we call the VX407 in ADPKD. The reason I think that this has the potential to be as big, if not larger, than CF is that -- the diseases that these medicines treat are rare diseases, but they are common rare diseases. And when you add them all up together, they're well into the hundreds of thousands of patients. For example, we talk about 150,000 or so patients with IgAN in North America and Europe, 100,000 patients with membranes in the same geography, for AMKD, that's another 150,000 or so patients with the aplite population, not including the Amplify population, which adds about 100,000 and ADPKD is about 300,000 patients. Of course, the first medicine that we're studying the EXPLORER 7 can treat about 10% of that 300,000.
So one, while each 1 is a rare disease there common rare diseases and when you add it together, we're hundreds of thousands of patients in just the Western world. The second is that in renal medicine, unfortunately, the outcome of these diseases is a relentless decline in renal function and a movement then to death, dialysis and transplantation, Obviously, those are enormous burn for society. I don't need to say much more about death, but dialysis in particular, is exceptionally expensive. And while it allows you to live, it is a very, very difficult life and life expectancy is like a very serious cancers, like pancreatic cancer.
And then last of that block, when we look at the emerging results for pove, for example, in IgAN in membrane, you can look at the Phase II and for Ian, you can certainly look at the Phase III interim announce these results. As I said on the call, they are sparkling from top to bottom, safety, efficacy, this is a kind of medicine that can bring transformative value. When I think about AMKD, same thing you look at the Phase II results that we published in the New England Journal, 47.6% reduction in proteinuria is a very big deal.
And when we think about ADPKD, no human results yet. But when you look at the mechanism of action, this is to say, to properly fold the misfolded PC1 and what we see preclinically another 1 where we think transformative effect. That's why we believe this is another vertical that can rival if not Crest CF. Best renal assets. That's a tough one, Jeff. I'm going to focus my attention for the here now on Tobi. It just looks sparkling. You can call it near-term bias because we just looked at the Phase III results.
Your next question will come from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Could you discuss the read-through from NASA's recent data to the enaxipline program? And also, could you just speak for that program, whether there were enrollment considerations to rip for patients with larger APOL1 contribution to CKD, especially in the non-FSGS patients?
Salveen. On the MA data, you know we don't like commenting on other company's assets and results, but I'll simply say the top line, the Vertex results were 47.6% reduction in proteinuria as published in the New England, and my recollection of the mad data is 35.6% at the top line. Going below that is difficult because we're talking about groups of 2 and 3 patients with or without diabetes and such. And I just don't think you can make very much when you're down to 2 or 3 patients. What I will say is I'm very happy about the decision we made early on to not mix a heterogeneous group and to focus our program on those with heavy partenariat 2 APOL1 alleles and reduced kidney function and mat study those who have a comorbid condition like diabetes, Instead, what we did is studying those people in a separate trial called AMPLIFY along with a group of patients with lower proteinuria. That trial is done enrollment, and I do expect to have results in the second half of this year.
The next question will come from Brian Abrahams with RBC Capital Markets.
With the Poly launch not too far off, what do you think you'll need to convey to KOLs and community physicians to convince them of hovitasecept's differentiation and overcome first-mover advantage by competitors?
In that, Brian, let me ask Duncan to take that. He's been spending a lot of time with nephrologists, both in academic institutions and centers of excellence as well as in the community. Duncan?
Brian, So 1 comment before we dive into your answer. I just made the point that obviously, this is a huge market opportunity of about 160,000 patients -- in the U.S., it's 5x bigger than CF, for example. And the vast majority, about 75% of those patients are nowhere near the Codiga guideline goal in terms of proteinuria. So the opportunity is significant. We've been engaging through market research and other mechanisms with many nephrologists. And essentially, they tell us they're looking for a product that significantly impacts proteinuria. We'll come back to that, is well tolerated and is easy for patients to use. And we believe that povitasteset uniquely meets those needs.
We think it has a sort of winning trifecta of incredible clinical effects, as you heard in the prepared remarks, things like the rapid deep and sustained reduction in proteinuria as well as GDI G1 and hematuria. It has a supremely favorable tolerability profile and very attractive dosing and administration. So as you know, it's once a month. It's a small volume dose and it's delivered by an auto injector. So we think we have an incredible product as we saw on the clinical data. We also know from our market research that those nephrologists that distinguish between last April and April alone, the vast majority of them prefer dual inhibition with Bath in April.
And in our patient market research, that the vast majority of patients prefer monthly dosing over weekly dose. In fact, 8x more patients prefer monthly dosing to weekly dosing. So in terms of the profile of the product matched against the needs of the physicians and patients, we think we have a best-in-class asset on our hands. And I would also add on the commercial capability side, we know how to execute a high science cell. We know how to secure bracket deep and broad reimbursement, and we know how to build patient support programs, which are incredibly important in the biologics space as we have done for the last 12, 13 years or so in cystic fibrosis.
So -- we're feeling really good about the profile of provitacercept. We are getting ready for launch, and we're going to be ready to go, the day the FDA give us regulatory approval.
The next question will come from Jeff Mechem with Citi.
I have 2 quick ones. So on pain and on 993 in particular, as you guys have got commercial experience with Dynavax, are there settings where an IV modality is perhaps a better fit in the clinical practice. I imagine that's maybe the hospital setting in the Cuba wanted to obviously get your perspective. And then on POB, congrats on the quick filing in IgAN, but looking beyond PMN and GMG, -- is it worth it to do a basket setting? Are there other autoimmune indications that make sort of that you could have the most differentiation for Poviand then maybe you have the highest probability of success.
Jeff, this is Reshma. On the pain portfolio and whether or not an IV medicine would be helpful, I think it would be helpful to have an IV medicine and what we're really looking to do here and the reason we have not only susetrigene or dynamics, but 993 and additional not one, but very importantly, MAG-17 is to make sure that we have the best medicine, whether it's PO or IV and that formulatability into IV is 1 of the features that we're looking at and are interested in.
Switching then to poly and where we see things go, IGAM is already done in terms of the interim analysis and filing. membranes Phase III is already underway. Myasthenia Phase II is underway -- there are some additional B-cell mediated diseases that we are thinking about. And I do think a basket study is a very efficient way of evaluating those conditions through Phase II development. I won't say much more about exactly which conditions. But suffice it to say, there are some B-cell mediated conditions. autoantibodies are important, where we think pulling would fit nicely and I do think that going about this by way of basket studies and efficient Phase II/III are the right way to go.
You'll be hearing us talk more about pub and our immunology portfolio in the coming months and in the coming time. But I like your idea.
The next question will come from Cory Kasimov with Evercore ISI.
I wanted to follow up on Salveen's question on aniline. And when you think about the pending data from AMPLIFY, looking at AMKD patients with moderate proteinuria or diabetes, what's needed in this population for a clinically meaningful benefit to justify advancement in this patient segment?
Or I would say that generally speaking, in renal medicine, we've been thinking about double-digit improvements as being valuable -- by that, I don't mean 10% or 11%. I would say if we can show a 30% improvement -- some number between 20% and 40%, 25% and 50%, some substantial double-digit improvement in proteinuria on top of standard of care, of course. So on top of ACS or ERPs, et cetera. that would be meaningful. And we'll be able to see how we fare shortly. The enrollment is done. It's a 12-week study. So we'll be able to tell you the results in the near term.
Your next question will come from Mike Yee with UBS.
This is Mike from UBS. On Toby, do you believe that your -- on the efficacy standpoint that your differentiation on eGFR will be able to come through over 9, 12 or 24 months versus, say, Asuka which I think is presenting the EGFR 9-month data, I think, next month and then there are 2-year data coming up. And so I just wanted to think about where you would start to see differentiation for yours and a read-through to their data that they're going to present.
And then on the safety component for POV. Reshma, can you talk a little bit about the hypogammaglobulineremia? And I think there are some questions around whether 150 or 300 matters and the noise within the assay and the timing of the measurement and why you don't think that will be any issue here for Pony?
Start with safety and the question on hypogammaglobulinemia and then we'll go to efficacy. On safety, the results are really terrific because Poly and any medicine that works on April or back April, in essence is modulating B cells, you do need to think about the safety profile and in the safety profile, the domain to think about is infection. So specifically, what we focused on and what I was very pleased to see is we can get this level of efficacy on proteinuria, on hematuria, on GDI on getting down to these very low levels, less than 0.5 grams per gram, which is the important clinical threshold, we can get down to those levels with a very favorable safety profile.
So the infection, most of the infections are mild to moderate, think upper respiratory infection. There's no opportunistic infections, no uncommon infections, the SAEs of infection are low and balanced. It's exactly 0.5% in the placebo group and the same exact number in the pull we treated group. So that looks really nice. With regard to the actual immunoglobulin levels, and let's focus on IgG. The IgG levels of less than 300 or 150 or 200. Some people use 400. These thresholds are important because that's how people set up their trials, and that's how the trials may have certain actions taken, you are correct each trial defines a different threshold. You measure it in different number of times. Some people measure monthly like us. other people measure quarterly. Some people require multiple measurements to call it less than that threshold, others require a simple 1 level.
So it's not very easy at all to cross-compare. The important thing, though, Michael, if you're asking me, hey, is there anything there that gives you concern not at all -- the important thing to look at is the infections and the infections look very balanced between these groups. On efficacy, you asked about GFR, which is the regulatory enabling end point, right? So the regulators have said Purtinuria is acceptable at 9 months for accelerated approval, but they are looking for 2-year GFR for full approval.
Note, however, GFR is actually not the hard endpoint in renal medicine. The hard endpoint is death dialysis or transplantation. That's what we're really trying to avoid. It's just that, that endpoint takes a long time. And so the acceptable regulatory enabling endpoint for full approval is GFR. The reason I think that the proteinuria is so important is when you think about that hard endpoint of death dialysis and transplantation, which takes years to develop, the thing is most proximately reflects that is proteinuria. And what I would do is think about pretinari, okay, if I got 1 point of protenuria, improvement more than any other medicine, 2 points, 5 points, 10 points outbound that over years, and you start to see why protenuria is so very important.
The agency has said very clearly that we're not allowed to share GFR, but they equally said that they need to see GFR to provide accelerated approval. So what I would say is any medicine in IgAN that gets accelerated approval has the proteinuria that we've already shared and has GFR that the agency finds comforting.
Your next question will come from Tazeen Ahmad with Bank of America.
I wanted to ask what your thoughts are Reshma, on the read-through from this positive IGAM study that you provided the top line for recently onto the PMN study that you're currently running for pop? And then secondly, on the CF pipeline, I just wanted to get a sense of what data you plan on showing in the second half of the year for -- and what would be considered good data there?
Okay. Let's do IgAN first. because we might see the -- some data that are from the IgAN as very important and positive for membranes because now we study hundreds of patients over a 9-month period, which is an additive information to the Phase II results. So things like PK, PD, the reduction in protuneria, I see all of that in terms of efficacy is important. Clearly, the autoantibody of interest is different. One is PLA2R, -- that's what we're looking for membranes versus GDIA1. So that has to play itself out. But in terms of those other parameters, I see that as really positive.
The other variable that I see is very positive is on safety. The fact that there is such a favorable safety profile, I see as a positive. Of course, the IGAM study was at 80 milligrams. And in the membrane study, we're studying both AN and 240 to Prickne. Lastly, I feel very good about the way the study is being conducted -- that is to say low discontinuations in terms of study discontinuations and treatment discontinuations and I also feel really good about the background therapy. It's very important to look at as you think about doing these studies in contemporary practice.
On switching now to CF. The 828 results are a CF cohort after we completed the healthy volunteer study. And so what you should see is data from the single dose that's gone into the patient cohort, and you should expect to see sweat chloride results. and safety results as well. It's a small cohort, so you shouldn't expect anything on PPFEV1, but the readout, the efficacy readout that we're looking for is sweat chloride. So you should expect us to share that.
Next question will come from Evan Seigerman with BMO.
I want to expand a little bit on the discontinuation of VX-522. Anything else you can share on the tolerability issues. And then looking ahead, do you plan to utilize another technology to help these patients that are not currently untreatable with your current portfolio?
On VX 522, what I can tell you is that the tolerability issue that we have been monitoring and sharing with you now that the study is being discontinued, has to do with lung inflammation, like an inflammatory response probably in response to the LNP that's being used to deliver it. And I say that because this is not unusual in that regard. So with regard to what are we going to do for our patients, I want to be clear about the fact that our commitment to CF is absolute and steadfast. If there is any more that we can do for our patients in the 95% group, we're going to be the ones who do it. And for our last 5,000 or so patients, we're going to work on that as well. I expect that the challenge is going to continue to be delivery. And in terms of modalities, we're going to have to go back to the drawing board on modality. These last 5,000 are going to require some nucleic acid therapy, right, because they simply don't make any protein.
And so the big question is not necessarily what the nucleic acid therapy is we have some big -- there are ideas in their, I think, obvious. But how do you deliver it without having this lung irritation, and that's what we're going to be working on.
Next question will come from David Risinger with Leerink Partners.
Yes. Thanks very much, and thanks for all the updates. So my questions are on Jernavics. Could you maybe help reconcile the $29 million in revenue in the first quarter with the volume of either prescriptions or pills. And then given that your NavEx has PBM coverage for 240 million lives now, which is over 2/3 of the population. Does Gernavixs need to achieve more employer opt-ins and more Tier 2 formulary positions for the gross to net to normalize?
Duncan, do you want to take that one?
Sure. David. So in terms of the first part of your question, I would say, overall, by the way, we are extremely pleased with the progress. On Genomics. We are fully on track in terms of our prescription numbers and our revenue numbers. In terms of reconciling quarter 1 dollars and volume, as I mentioned, in the prepared remarks. We did see a small but relatively normal channel inventory destocking in quarter 1 between quarter 4 '25 and quarter 1, 2026. It's also true that in that quarter, of course, Medicare Part D plans are resetting, which can lead to higher co-pays and more abandonment. And then also, we saw the traditional reduction in the number of elective surgeries in January, which are a little bit harder impacted this year because of the sort of fairly strong flu season.
So overall, I would say that the quarter 1 performance was in line with our expectations. We are absolutely on track to more than triple the number of prescriptions that we delivered in 2025. And to answer the second part of your question, we have just achieved our 240 million lives covered. As you know, we're very happy with that. And actually, in an update since we finalized the script, you know that we've been working on 4 Medicare Part D plans. And in the script, we communicated that we had secured coverage at 1 of those 4 plans, we've actually secured coverage at 2 of those 4 plants and are very close to securing coverage at 1/3 of those plans or deferred of those plans. And that coverage starts from between May 1 to July 1.
So I don't think we need to be focused on downstream plans and employer plans. As we have said all along, as we secure the final pillars of access, the patient support program will taper down our gross to net will normalize by the end of the year, and you will see revenue significantly accelerate and accelerate faster than prescription growth as we go through the balance of the year.
Your next question will come from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Just 2 questions for me. I was just wondering if you can tell us if there's a defined percentage of FSGS patients in the amplitude Phase III trial for anaxaplan,e if there's a cutoff or if you just pretty much all comers and that mix will be dictated by who's enrolled. And then for a lift track, just curious to know if you're seeing anything different in terms of patient mix this quarter versus prior quarters in terms of the 3 different buckets that you guys have focused on?
Terence, I'll take your FSGS question for Phase III and Acolle. -- and I'll turn it over to Duncan. I won't be able to share what the baseline characteristics look like because we haven't looked at those data and we don't know those data. But what I will tell you is that what's common in AMKD is because they tend to be heavily purtneuric, -- so we're talking about people who are coming in with proteinuria of 0.7 grams or more they often tend to have a biopsy because that's a lot of proteinuria and people are trying to figure out whether there is an underlying identified cause. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if many -- maybe even the majority of patients in the AMKD Phase III AMPLI trial, actually were at known FSGS patients because a lot of these patients actually do get a biopsy, not all of them, but it's not an uncommon act.
So that would be my guess, but I don't have a formal answer for you. Fortunately, the IA enrollment is complete. The full study enrollment will complete this year and we fully expect to have results from the IEA in early 2027. So we'll know the answer real soon. Duncan. A lift track characteristics transition -- new.
Yes, Terence, thank you for the question. So yes, I'm assuming the 3 categories you're talking to the naive -- talking about the naive patients that discontinued patients and the transition patients I would say that we see continued strong progress in all of those. Once we have both regulatory approval and reimbursement, we see the naive patients coming on first, then we see the discontinuation patients coming on. And then finally, the transition patients are moving on to a lifting indeed exactly as we desire.
So at this point, essentially, I would tell you that all new patients are going on to a lift track. No 1 is going on to Trikafta. They're all going on to a lift track. We see the discontinued patients largely moving on to aliftrec and the vast majority, of course, of our patients. Now our transitions from tricaptar to Elifrek exactly as we would expect. So the 3 drivers really the lift-truck growth this year, our continued uptake in the U.S. more European countries securing reimbursements and the expanded labels, for example, the additional 800 patients that were recently included in the most recent labeling updates. So hopefully, that answers your question, but we're seeing essentially a similar profile to that which we saw before. I'm super happy that we are well over $1 billion on the lift truck at this point.
And the next question will come from Ellie Merle with Barclays..
An efficacy or safety perspective. And I guess, as you think about the CF landscape broadly, how are you thinking about sort of the bar set by a lift track versus where you see room for incremental improvement?
Ellie, we couldn't catch the first part of your question. Would you restart, please?
Sure. Sorry about that. Let me know if you can't hear me now. Just another question on -- you can hear me okay good. Just on 828, just a follow-up on the earlier question. I guess, what are you seeing as a bar for what you would want to see to bring this forward from an efficacy or safety perspective? And then just as you think about the cystic fibrosis landscape overall, how are you thinking about sort of the bar set by a lift track versus where you see room for improvement?
When we had Trikafta and we're working to see what the unmet need was. Honestly, Elie was a little bit easier to see as amazing as Trikafta is, we could see that a once-daily medicine would be better for patients. And we could see that getting more CFTR protein function, that's the same or we chloride more patients below the diagnostic threshold of 60, and the normal level of 30 would be advantageous. Now fast forward to where we are today with the lift truck, and genuinely, there is very little unmet need. And so it's going to take something special for us to advance. And that's why we're looking at VX828, we're looking at VX 581 and we're looking at VX-272 because we want to really interrogate to see that there's more that we can bring to the table.
And what I'm really saying in the event is unclear is this. Today, 90% of people would you start at a young age, which Elite is now approved down to years old and we're filing for 2 to 5 years old, 90% are less than 60. 2/3 of our patients are at sweat chloride that's below normal. And this is with a once-a-day medicine. And now when you think about it, everyone is Dunkin' describe all our new patients, all our young patients are coming on to Alley, there's very little room for improvement here. So if it's possible, we're going to be the ones who do it, but it's getting really, really tough because we're already down to once a day, good-looking -- DDis, excellent sweat chloride function with 2/3 normal, it's tough. So -- if we see it, we'll certainly let you know, but that's why we're being so particular in bringing these number of medicines forward to see if anything can be better than a lift truck.
Great. I think we'll wrap there. Chuck, can you give the replay information?
We'll do -- this will conclude our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. The conference has now been concluded, and thank you for attending today's presentation. A replay of today's event will be available shortly after the call concludes by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529 or 1412-317-0088 using replay access code 102-08180. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Vertex hits 2026 with solid growth across CF and a rapidly expanding renal/immunology portfolio.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Revenue: $2.99B (+8% YoY)
- CF growth: Global CF revenue +6% YoY; Cascevi $43M; Gernavics $29M, ~25% of quarterly growth
- Milestones: Lift Trek >$1B cumulative revenue; 500+ patients started Cascevy program
- Prescriptions: Genavics portfolio with >1M prescriptions written
🎯 What Management Says
- CF expansion & pipelines: label expansions for Lift Trek and Trikafta; plans to submit Lift Trek for ages 2–5 and Trikafta for 1–2; advancing VX828 and other NextGen modulators; VX522 discontinued due to tolerability issues.
- Renal franchise build-out: Povetatercept shows strong interim IgAN data; PMN and AMKD programs advancing; field force expanded to ~300; telehealth access platform to speed treatment adoption.
- Strategic stance: four-pillar growth plan remains intact with commercial diversification and ongoing investments in late-stage pipeline.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Guidance: 2026 revenue $12.95B–$13.1B; non-CF revenue >$500M
- Profitability: gross margin just under 86%; non-GAAP OpEx $5.65B–$5.75B
- Taxes & risk: non-GAAP tax rate 19.5%–20.5%; foreign exchange impacts noted; no material tariff impact expected
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Renal read-through: How IgAN data from Povetatercept translate to other renal programs (membranes, AMKD, ADPKD) and timing for PMN/AMKD readouts.
- Access dynamics: Path to normalize gross-to-net as coverage expands (Part D, employer plans) and impact on long-term revenue mix.
- CF data cadence: Expected readouts from VX828 (sweat chloride) and how this informs Lift Trek improvement versus remaining CF unmet needs.
⚡ Bottom Line
Vertex delivered a strong Q1, with durable CF momentum, meaningful early progress in the renal portfolio, and reaffirmed 2026 targets. The company is methodically building a four-ppillar, multi-disease growth engine, though regulatory, manufacturing, and competitive dynamics remain key watch points as it advances next-generation therapies and expands patient access.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Hi, everyone. I'm Ellie Merle, one of the biotech analysts here at Barclays. Very excited to have Vertex here with us to discuss a lot of exciting news this week with the povetacicept Phase III amongst a lot else going on in the pipeline. Joining us is Miroslava and Susie Lisa from the Investor Relations team. Thank you both so much for joining us.
Maybe to kick it off before we jump right into pove after. But we've seen Vertex shift from being a cystic fibrosis biotech to a more diversified story across several verticals. Could you walk us through the strategy behind the efforts you've made so far and what's coming on the horizon?
Sure. Thanks, Ellie, and thanks for having us very much. Yes, it's a really exciting time. We have long been proud of the work we've done in cystic fibrosis, but have also long had the goal to diversify our revenue base as well as the patient groups that we can address. And I think are very pleased with the progress that we have been making, all while maintaining the utmost diligence and care towards that CF patient community and continuing to move the bar forward there in terms of our ongoing ALYFTREK launch now, which is our fifth commercialized medicine as well as having a NextGen 3.0 family of therapies already in the clinic, and we can talk more about that if there's time.
But we're very pleased with the progress that we have made with our ongoing launches in CASGEVY for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia as well as for JOURNAVX in acute pain to the point where we have built really strong foundations for these products in terms of the patient outreach and support the commercial capabilities as well as the clinical data to support these transformative therapies and have said for 2026, right, that we expect those 2 products combined to do over $500 million in revenue and have established strong basis for their growth.
And then given additional targets for JOURNAVX, I think, excitingly to more than triple the number of prescriptions in 2026 versus 2025 and revenue growth should outpace that on a year-over-year basis. And then I think as we'll get into the pove data, what we are really excited about is we feel that this exciting Phase III data from the interim analysis firmly establishes our vision for renal ultimately to rival the size of our cystic fibrosis franchise.
And there are 3 therapy -- 3 Phase III ongoing programs in the renal franchise as well as an exciting Phase II for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. And I think this is an exciting time in renal medicine overall, and we look to be a thought leader there and expanding that. And then beyond that, all the while, we've remained very, very true and disciplined to our R&D strategy with our identified sandbox diseases where we under -- they're serious diseases, we understand the causal human biology. There are validated markers.
There are efficient pathways for both clinical and regulatory progress as well as specialty commercial infrastructure. And so I think sticking true to that discipline and then just the focus on R&D, the outsized investment that we maintain, that's what enables us to continue to diversify away from CF, all while maintaining a strong outlook for growth there.
Great. Yes, certainly, a lot going on beyond cystic fibrosis. Turning to the pove data. Outside of just the top line proteinuria result, which I think a lot of investors were focused on, what are the other important data points that you think people should be focused on coming out of that release?
Yes. So I think there's a lot, bear with me. I'll try and keep it quick. But I think we were very excited by the overall, what feels to us like a best-in-class profile from an efficacy standpoint. Keep in mind, too, that we feel we definitively have an advantage from a patient administration and dosing standpoint, where we have the lowest dose of 0.46 mls in an at-home auto-injector, and it's once monthly versus peers are either higher dose and/or weekly injections that are required.
And we also feel that we will have best-in-class from a commercial capability standpoint as well and there are actually a lot of similarities between the CF and renal markets and nephrology community. And so we're excited for that. But in terms of the key data highlights, UPCR certainly does grab everyone's attention, and that's where we saw a 52% reduction at 36 weeks. I think that's important because some of the peers have had primary endpoint measurements at 40 weeks and you continue to see improvement over time. So seeing that type of reduction at 36 weeks is important.
From Gd-I -- on the secondary objectives, 2 endpoints there, one on Gd-IgA1 with a 77% reduction as well as an 85% resolution for patients' hematuria, an 85% rate of resolution. And those 2 were at 36 weeks. Again, some of the peers are measuring secondary endpoints at 48 weeks, so even more potential for differentiation. I think another key highlight, particularly in physicians' minds is the fact that 42% of our patients got to the KDIGO recommended guidelines of a UPCR less than 0.5 grams per gram that also compares quite favorably.
And this is very much a real-world population, right? With the most recent of the IgAN studies, we enrolled the fastest. We also had the highest rates of background therapy. Nearly everyone was on ACEs and ARBs and more than 65% of patients were on SGLT2 inhibitors. We also saw that the average duration from time of diagnosis, biopsy diagnosis to enrolling in the study was 3.8 years, right?
So it very much is a real-world population that high background therapy and still seeing that level of improvement on there, I think, is really significant. The other big piece of news is that they -- we announced that we'll submit our -- complete our rolling submission by the end of this month. I think that's beating expectations by about a full quarter for most. And we have used a priority review voucher. So after the FDA has 2 months, to accept the filing, consider and hopefully accept the filing, then it will be a 6-month review from there. And I think those are the key highlights. Yes. If others come up, we can bring them up later.
Yes. And I think that's particularly compelling, particularly the proportion of patients that got below 0.5 grams given that is in the guidelines now in terms of where patients should be going.
Exactly.
So I think that's an interesting from an efficacy perspective. And considering the patient baseline, which I think you appropriately called out, seems to be a more real-world patient population. A question that we're getting a lot of is on safety. Maybe if we could talk about that. I mean you have the potential to be more potent, but with the immune system that also comes at the potential risk of some more like infection risk. Can you talk through what was actually seen in the study and how you're thinking about the safety here?
Yes. We were quite pleased with the overall safety results, and it's a very, very clean profile. I think perhaps to start that the vast majority of adverse events were mild or moderate and that there were no severe serious -- no SAEs that were deemed related to pove and no SAEs that were inherent in that, right, is none due to infection. We can also confirm that there were no discontinuations related to infection. and there were no opportunistic or unusual infections either.
Most of the -- we included in our release that the greater than 10% rate were upper respiratory tract infections, nasopharyngitis and injection site reactions, right? So all very common. And I think a very favorable profile, and we're excited to move forward.
And a question that we got has been on hypogamma. I guess what can you say on what was seen here and when we can expect to learn more about that?
Yes. Thanks for the question. And I think there has been a lot of discussion around this. And it's very -- I think in general, everyone cautions from cross-trial comparisons, right? And particularly when it comes to issues like infection, I think it's even more fraught with peril. And there are very different definitions across the industry in terms of definitions of what the thresholds were for hypo IgG as well as what counted as a case of it.
For us, in the RAINIER study, any patient who went below a level of 300 milligrams per deciliter that, that was then deemed to be monitored. And if the patient went below 150, then treatment was discontinued or would be discontinued. We have told you there are no discontinuations through the interim analysis group. And so due to -- in order to maintain study integrity, we're not disclosing the number of that below 300 number or numbers.
But we have told you all the information on infections because the so what of hypo-IgG is infection. And you're just not seeing it as we went through previously. I would say a similar question, we did disclose that there was evidence of ADAs, but the so what there is on efficacy. And as we mentioned and discussed, right, I think very, very good efficacy even with all of the background therapy.
And in addition, we provided a fourth plot in the press release that shows you excellent results across every subgroup, including by race as well as by region. So you don't see any of the outliers perhaps you've seen in other studies. So I think both on hypo-IgG as well as ADAs, I know investors always want more disclosures, but we feel that we've given the consequences, the answers to the potential consequences of those, and there's nothing there.
That makes sense. In terms of pove, what I think is interesting is that this could be a pipeline and a product and has applications in a number of other conditions. Can we talk through that and sort of the rationale you see in PMN, myasthenia gravis and the time lines for those?
Yes. So in primary membranous nephropathy, I think very much akin to thinking about IgAN and in terms of that patient population. But IgAN is a little bit larger, right, 330,000 patients in U.S. and Europe and PMN is slightly smaller. There's no -- we're in an ongoing Phase II, Phase III study. There is no interim analysis or accelerated approval pathway here. It's a 104-week study, but we're underway and excited to keep progressing.
And I do think as physicians are considering their choices, the thought of having to learn and be fully immersed in one therapy to treat a broader array of their patients is a potential advantage we could have. And then for myasthenia gravis, we said that we'll initiate a Phase II study in the first half of this year. And I think if you're looking for a [ poster ] trial for B-cell-mediated disease, that's probably myasthenia gravis. And you have seen data out of China that looks quite compelling. And I think the rationale just makes all the sense in the world, and that's why we're moving forward and excited for that. And there could be additional indications beyond those 3 that we have discussed.
Makes sense. And how should we think about kind of the commercial opportunity for each of these considering unmet need, patient population, but also the competitive landscape?
Yes. So I think in -- let's maybe just start with IgAN that there is a clear unmet need, right? There's 330,000 of these patients who are diagnosed today, really with no good options. You've heard physicians describe them as kind of just waiting to see how and when and how fast they'll progress. And to have a disease-modifying therapy that can stave off the need for dialysis or transplant and ideally death, right, that, that is, I think, obviously compelling to patients, physicians and to payers as well because all of those options are expensive ones.
There are -- I think about 4,000 nephrologists treat 80% of these diagnosed patients in the U.S. We've had ongoing conversations with them from an access -- with payers about access since the middle of last year and continue to have those conversations. We have built out sort of the initial phase of our sales force. And now with this data, we'll look to complete that. Vast majority of the ones we have hired have nephrology experience in the community. And again, we've been in nephrology for a long time with our inaxaplin study.
And I think definitely, as we saw at ASN last November, a real excitement and buzz about the innovation that Vertex is bringing to the renal community, not the least of which is helped by the fact that our CEO is a trained transplant nephrologist. So that certainly helps. PMN, similarly, I think no real disease-modifying therapies. And in myasthenia gravis, we view the opportunity as some of the existing therapies, the drawback there is that they need to be cycled on and off, whereas we don't see that need given the mechanism with pove, but we need to do the trials and move forward from there.
Okay. Makes sense. And then I guess, in terms of inaxaplin, you have some exciting data either late this year or early next year. Let's talk about that opportunity and what you're looking to see in the Phase III program.
Yes, sure. So this is a disease that has no existing therapies, nothing that addresses the underlying cause of disease. And we think that the cause is the APOL1 mutations that people inherit that ultimately, there is a second trigger, but they drive poor formation in the kidney that ultimately results with the progression of kidney disease and rapid progression to kidney failure. So what we're developing there is our molecule is inaxaplin.
It's in Phase II/III pivotal development, and we expect to read out the interim results from this trial late this year or early next year. The goal is reduction in proteinuria, and we will also look at eGFR slope versus placebo. So those are the endpoints. It is clear we need to show stabilization of eGFR versus placebo as a pathway to file for accelerated approval.
And what gives you confidence that you'll be able to see the stabilization in eGFR slope?
Yes. So it's a great question. AMKD, this is really the first trial for this population. So obviously, we are the first to study this disease. But what gives us confidence is these patients, based on all the literature and everything we know about them, they progress twice as fast to renal failure and to dialysis than their peers who don't have the APOL1 alleles. So based on all of the -- everything we know about the patients and the progression of disease, there is reason to be optimistic that the curves can separate even at 1 year.
I'd also mention in our Phase II study, which we published in New England Journal that even just at 13 weeks, right, you saw a 47.6% reduction in UPCR. So we're hopeful with that sort of speed and depth of reduction that, that can lead to the endpoint in eGFR. I think admittedly, 48 weeks typically would be a short time frame for eGFR, but we're optimistic.
Great. Turning to the cystic fibrosis business, maybe just the latest that you're seeing in terms of a ALYFTREK uptake. We saw some decent growth in the fourth quarter. How should we think about the trajectory over 2026?
Yes. We would expect a continuation of the same solid trends in terms of ALYFTREK and conversions from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK. I would say that virtually all new patients are initiating on ALYFTREK given the lower sweat chloride that you can see with it as well as the once-daily dosing convenience as well as the fact that, that means only 1 fatty meal a day and patients have appeal there. We're also excited by the ongoing launches and reimbursed access in Europe.
And for instance, just given the derivation of the disease, you actually see more of the rare mutations in Europe than you do in the U.S. And we gave an example on the fourth quarter call that there are now 1,500 patients with access for the first time in Italy given the rare mutations that are -- that can be addressed by ALYFTREK. There's also no incremental liver monitoring anywhere outside the U.S. So that's helpful for uptake outside the U.S., too.
But I think continued good progress and a focus on the messaging around lower sweat chloride is better and ALYFTREK gets you there, right? And we also just published or released top line data from our study in ALYFTREK, where you see in the 12-plus population, right, about 30% of patients are getting to diagnostic levels. In the 6 to 11, I think it's about 53%. And by the time you get to 2 to 5, which is the one we just released, you're getting to north of 60% of patients getting below the diagnostic threshold.
So these are kids who essentially be asymptomatic of their CF. And we've begun a study in 1- to 2-year olds with ALYFTREK. So that will continue the momentum. So we've talked about growth overall in CF from younger patients, additional geographies, additional patients with the rare mutations and then the underlying population growth, which has averaged 3% over the past 5 years due in large part to the survival benefit that you're seeing from our meds.
Makes sense. And as we think about long term and life cycle management, any thoughts on NBD1?
Sure. So NBD1, we know the CFTR protein intimately well. I've been studying it for 20 years. NBD1 is a known binding site on the protein for many years. It's been in the literature, I think, over a decade. And we have -- we are looking at NBD1, we've disclosed, but that the binding sites that we have used for our 5 commercialized medicines have been different ones. And as I mentioned, as we're getting close to now almost 2/3 of 2- to 5-year-olds getting to carrier levels of sweat chloride.
I think we are happy with the binding sites that we have chosen. But we'll continue to look to try and improve until we can get virtually all patients to those carrier levels. I don't know that there's anything particularly unique, particularly given the breadth that we're seeing in terms of over 300 rare mutations, et cetera, about NBD1. But we are continuing to look to move forward. We have a NextGen 3.0 family of therapies one of which is in patients, one of which is in healthy volunteers, and we'll look to continue to raise the bar, and we'll see what others can do in terms of data middle of this year, I believe, which is on top of TRIKAFTA, which is our therapy.
But as I said, we'll see, and we continue to move the bar forward. And it's a long pathway from proof of concept, if that's what you see to finding a molecule -- a combination therapy is inherently difficult and then the head-to-head studies and then just getting it down into the younger patients. It took us a decade to get into the 1-month old from initial approval.
Yes, makes sense. That's helpful context. Turning to JOURNAVX. You said you expect scripts to triple this year, which is certainly impressive growth. This is a program that I think investors should be paying more attention to. Maybe talk through some of the investments in the sales force that you've made and what's driving some of the script growth.
Yes. On JOURNAVX, we are very pleased with the momentum, frankly, entering 2026. We came into 2026 having secured the last remaining commercial PBM for access to -- for coverage to JOURNAVX. So we are at over 200 million covered lives. That's 67% of all covered lives in the U.S. We -- as you remember, Ellie, we had 550,000 scripts written for JOURNAVX in 2025 in year 1, which was pretty broad across the hospital and the retail segment and different specialties, 35,000 physicians writing prescriptions.
So we were very pleased with the momentum going into 2026. And we feel strongly that now is the right time to double down and invest further behind the launch. So we are doubling the sales force from 150 to 300 reps. These reps will be active in the field in the second quarter. And the goal for them will be to go broader and deeper with accessing physicians and driving adoption of JOURNAVX. And in addition to that, we are also increasing our marketing investment.
So things like direct-to-consumer, where we are launching advertising across Connected TV, Hulu, Paramount+ and the like. We have a campaign with Basketball Star, Hall of Famer, Jayson Tatum. So we're out there. We're promoting heavily, and we expect that to increase over the course of 2026. And as coverage broadens, the gross to net we are realizing on JOURNAVX will improve over 2026. So that will result in more revenue and higher revenue growth, as Susie mentioned, relative to the script growth.
One other thing I'd add is, and maybe touch on it is 2 Phase IV studies that we're excited about. One we just published -- was presented last week in aesthetic and reconstructive procedures. We'll have one next month in arthroscopic and laparoscopic orthopedic procedures, but showing really tremendous patient satisfaction as well as high, high rates of patients being opioid-free in the 14 days post treatment.
I think in the aesthetic one, it was 90% of patients were opioid-free. And typically in that patient group, you see only 10% of patients are opioid-free according to the literature, and we look forward to similar results in the orthopedic one. So I think that will also help continue to fuel the momentum.
Yes. We've certainly heard very positive feedback from physicians in the aesthetic setting as well. So exciting data. As we head into 2027 and potential Phase III data for DPN, sort of remind us of the time lines and the trial design there? And what gives you confidence in potential success? Because this certainly would dramatically, in my view, expand the market opportunity given the duration of the script would be much longer than a chronic type of pain.
Yes. We are well underway with our 2 Phase III trials in diabetic peripheral neuropathy. We expect to complete enrollment in both trials by year-end. and that would set us up for results in 2027. So we feel very good about the progress of this program. There's 2.5 million patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathy in the U.S. who have a significant unmet need. The current available treatments are either not well tolerated, I would say, or just don't provide sufficient relief. And so we think we have a lot to offer here with JOURNAVX, but we'll have to read out the results and see how it plays out.
There are 12-week studies with 2 weeks of follow-up. Is that right?
Yes, yes.
Great. Well, a lot to look forward to. I think we're out of time, but thank you both so much for joining us, and I appreciate the time today.
Thanks very much for having us.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference
🎯 Key Message
- Strategic shift: Vertex pivots from cystic fibrosis to a diversified growth engine built on a renal-focused pipeline (pove), continued CF leadership (ALYFTREK), and a multi-indication strategy (IgAN, PMN, myasthenia gravis) plus NextGen 3.0 programs.
📌 Strategic Highlights
- Pove profile: Best-in-class efficacy with at-home dosing; rolling NDA submission by month-end; potential expansion into PMN, IgAN, and MG.
- JOURNAVX ramp: Access covers ~200 million lives; scripts rose to ~550k in 2025; sales force to ~300 reps in 2H; increased marketing efforts.
- CF momentum & Europe: Ongoing ALYFTREK uptake, European launches, and focus on rare CF mutations to sustain growth.
🆕 New Information
- Rolling POVE NDA: Submission expected by month-end; FDA review approximately 6 months post-acceptance.
- Interim POVE data: UPCR −52% at 36 weeks; Gd-IgA1 −77%; hematuria resolution 85% in interim dataset.
- Inaxaplin timing: Phase II/III interim results anticipated late this year or early next; eGFR stabilization as pathway to accelerated approval.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Safety signals: Discussion of hypo-IgG; no SAEs linked to POVE; ADAs disclosed; infections not driving conclusions; ongoing safety review addressing context and subgroups.
- Commercial momentum: JOURNAVX expansion with 300 reps planned; broader marketing; 200M covered lives support growing adoption.
- DPN timeline: Enrollment to finish by year-end; results expected in 2027; large addressable U.S. population (~2.5 million).
⚡ Bottom Line
Vertex is building a multi-franchise growth engine. Near-term catalysts include regulatory progress for POVE, accelerated JOURNAVX and CF momentum, and a broad renal/autoimmune expansion that could extend growth beyond cystic fibrosis over the coming years.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
1. Question Answer
Welcome, everyone, to our session with Vertex. It's very much my pleasure to welcome members of the leadership team on the screen, if you're in the room, Duncan has been retitled as CSO. I guess that's in the wake of the positive pove data, trying to take credit for that.
Yes, hopefully.
So he's out of a title. But to my immediate left is Charlie Wagner, company's COO and CFO; and Duncan McKechnie is to his left, Chief Commercial Officer; and Susie Lisa, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations to Duncan's left.
So thank you very much for being here. Great timing. Thanks for issuing the press release last night I had a conference...
It's for you, it's for you, yes.
So why don't we start with pove? It would be great to hear -- how you view the data, and then we'll go from there.
If you don't mind, I'd like to make just a couple of general remarks, too...
Please.
And then we will, of course, dive into that. Anyways, thank you for hosting us this year. We came into 2026 with four primary goals for the company: one, to extend our leadership in CF; two, to accelerate our commercial diversification, particularly with JOURNAVX and CASGEVY; three, to advance our broad and deep pipeline, which has 5 Phase IIIs ongoing right now; and four, to deliver consistent and attractive financial results while we scale the company for the future.
We are, I think, off to a very good start relative to that. We gave guidance for the year -- revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, which implies 8% to 9% growth. We said that, that would include at least $500 million of revenue from non-CF products, so JOURNAVX and CASGEVY, which would be a significant acceleration in 2026 over 2025, and we can talk about some of those metrics.
But of course, one of the key things that we're doing this year is advancing the pipeline. As I mentioned, we have 5 Phase IIIs ongoing in AMKD, type 1 diabetes, DPN, and two with pove, one in pMN and one in IgAN. Of course, I mentioned that last because last night, we issued a press release on the results of pove in IgAN.
There was a 36-week interim analysis. I would say the data are remarkable, and it was a clean sweep across the endpoints for efficacy as well as the safety profile for pove. And if I could just headline it, we showed statistically significant and very clinically meaningful efficacy results -- on all primary and secondary endpoints for efficacy and the safety profile was very attractive.
Drilling down into the efficacy data. The primary endpoint was UPCR reading at 36 weeks. We showed a 52% reduction in UPCR relative to baseline, a 50% reduction relative to placebo, very consistent with what we saw at 36 weeks in the Phase II results, very strong data overall. On the secondary endpoints, we saw a 77% reduction in Gd-IgA1 antibodies. And we -- for patients with hematuria, we saw an 85% resolution rate in hematuria. So fantastic results overall.
The profile was very rapid, very deep and very durable response across all subgroups. We provided data so that you could see the efficacy results in the patient population by age, by gender, by race, by geography and across all of those dimensions, the clinical data, the efficacy data was statistically significant and very clinically meaningful.
On safety, there were no SAEs related to pove. There were no deaths in the trial. There were no unusual or opportunistic infections. There were no discontinuations in the trial due to infection. So overall, a really attractive safety profile as well and one that gives us confidence to move forward.
On that point, we had previously said we would expect to submit the filing in the first half of 2026. We've now pulled that in. We've accelerated it, and we expect to submit by the end of this month, which should put us on track, hopefully, for a commercial launch in the not-too-distant future. So as far as the year goes, I think we're confident we're off to a great start. And certainly, the pove data last night punctuates certainly what we are hoping to see in the pipeline.
Excellent. Congrats on that. So could you just go into a little bit more on safety and what you've -- I mean, you highlighted it, but any additional details you can provide and also discuss when we will expect to -- or when we should expect to see additional disclosures?
Yes. Listen, like I said, the safety data was excellent. I think importantly, with no discontinuations in the trial due to infection tells you a lot. The rate of infection -- rate of serious infection in the trial was very low, and it was very similar between the placebo arm and the pove arm at 0.5% for serious infections. So overall, quite low and again, no discontinuations. So overall, we feel great there.
In terms of additional data, we will provide additional data through publication and congresses in the future. Though some of that data we can't release until the trial itself is completed. And so that will be -- we'll release additional data at the appropriate time in the future.
And with respect to benchmarking data versus competitors, so your data was at week 36. I believe the Otsuka data that's in the label is at a slightly later time point. Could you just discuss that as well?
Yes. Our data is week 36. Their data is week 40. So ours was 9 doses, theirs was 10. I think you could see in our Phase II data that there was improvement -- further reduction in UPCR beyond 36 weeks. We don't have that measurement here in the Phase III. But again, with the 52% reduction at 36 weeks for pove tells you that there was a very rapid and strong response. You would expect that, that would continue over time. But again, we won't have the data on that to publish at this time.
Dave, if I could just add that on the Otsuka data, their secondary endpoints were actually at 48 weeks, so an even longer duration than all of ours, we're at 36 weeks. And I think to contextualize the strong efficacy data that we had, you should also note that it had the highest rates of patients on background therapy in terms of almost 100%, I think 98% on ACEs and ARBs, and 67%, 66% on SLGT2 inhibitors (sic) [ SGLT2 inhibitors ] ...
For our trial...
Yes, for our trial, yes. As well as we think it's very much a real-world population, given it was almost 4 years, right, from diagnosis to enrollment in the study, it was 3.8.
Excellent. Great. Well, I know we have a lot of ground to cover. So why don't we pivot to -- I guess, just a little bit at the higher level, and then we'll go into some of the franchises. So with respect to the growth prospects for the company, could you just talk about the top line outlook as you see it going forward and then the margin outlook as you reinvest?
Yes. We don't give long-term guidance, but I think I can provide some context. Obviously, two of the four goals that I mentioned to start 2026 have to do with the growth, and it's extending our leadership in CF and accelerating our commercial diversification. CF continues to grow. We continue to reach more patients. The ALYFTREK launch is ongoing in the U.S. We now have several launches ongoing outside the U.S. We continue to reach patients in younger age groups. We continue to reach patients in new geographies. And so I expect in 2026 to see healthy growth in CF, and I expect that to continue beyond 2026 as well -- I would say '26 and more meaningfully beyond.
With CASGEVY, you saw we had a very strong fourth quarter. In 2026, we expect continued growth in patient initiations for cell collections infusions. In JOURNAVX, we had a very strong year in 2025 with 500,000 prescriptions. We said in our guidance that we expect that number to triple in 2026. And the revenue conversion on those prescriptions will be greater because we've done so well with our coverage goals, and we now have roughly 200 million lives covered for JOURNAVX. So CASGEVY and JOURNAVX, both are on -- at a nice inflection point. And we believe that both of them are going to be multibillion-dollar businesses over time.
And you think about that in addition to the growth in CF. We just announced the pove data in IgAN. I think that clearly is a multibillion-dollar opportunity just in IgAN alone. We've got the Phase III ongoing in pMN. So if you look out 2, 3, 5 years, pick your time frame, I would fully expect that we've continued our leadership in CF with growth there. And then we have multiple multibillion-dollar franchises on top of that, allowing for commercial diversification.
The second probability of success in generating revenue in the near term. So we're investing in the 5 Phase IIIs that we have ongoing. We're investing in building the commercial organization for CASGEVY, for JOURNAVX and for pove. Those investments are appropriate and will deliver growth in the next couple of years. And so even with the investment, though, we've been able to maintain operating margins in the low to mid-40s, which is super attractive, and we'll continue to manage both the investment and the operating margin in a way that's going to deliver value over the long term. So particularly as these non-CF businesses scale and become multibillion-dollar businesses, that's going to be very attractive and accretive to our profitability.
Excellent. And when you said multibillion for JOURNAVX, what is your assumption that you're including for DPN?
In the statement I just made, I'm honestly just talking about acute. And so obviously, DPN is a separate multibillion-dollar opportunity, but we'll wait to talk about that until we see the Phase III results in late this year, early next year, early next year.
Okay. Great. And so -- maybe we could just touch on ALYFTREK first, and then we'll come back to JOURNAVX. So Duncan, could you comment on the conversion and the prospects for conversion going forward?
Yes, I can. If you don't mind, Dave, before that, I'll just make a couple of other comments on pove...
Please.
And IgAN as the commercial guy. Just to reinforce the point, this is genuinely remarkable data that we saw on pove this week. We are incredibly excited about the profile of the product because we really do believe it has best-in-class potential when you combine 3 things. Firstly, the superb efficacy and safety data that we saw in the data set this week. Secondly, when you add to that, the dosing administration advantages that we believe povetacicept has. So as you know, it's dosed once a month. It's a low-volume dose. It's with an easy-to-use at-home auto-injector, which we think has a very differentiated profile in the market.
And we've seen many times over both in the biologics market, but also in our recent engagements and market research with physicians, nephrologists, how important dosing administration is to them. And then third and finally, of course, we'll be looking at other indications for povetacicept that are relevant to the nephrology community like the ongoing study in pMN.
So we really do think that this has set us up very, very nicely for potential best-in-class positioning for pove. And I do think what Susie said is incredibly important. These were very well-treated patients who've been diagnosed or had their biopsy up to 4 years prior to coming into the study, and yet we still saw these incredible results on top of that. So I just wanted to add from a commercial perspective that we are incredibly excited about pove. And as you know, we've been gearing up for this launch since the middle of last year. So we are well underway in terms of our launch planning.
And so before you...
I was going to go then to the ALYFTREK...
Since you're commenting on pove, I'll just ask a few more on that because obviously, there is.
Sure.
A lot of interest there. So could you just comment on how you see the relative safety profile as well? What your view is at this point? And then just talk about when you think about commercializing pove, how much will it matter from a messaging standpoint that you have a dual-acting agent versus a single mechanism? And how do you think that will resonate?
Okay. So as far as the safety profile is concerned, we feel very, very good about what we saw in the study. So the vast majority of the adverse events were mild to moderate adverse events. There were no serious adverse events related to povetacicept. There were no discontinuations related to povetacicept for any adverse event, including infections. So we feel very, very good about the safety profile on the infection front, as Charlie alluded to, there were no opportunistic or unusual infections. And where there were serious infections, it was at 0.5% for both pove and placebo. So we feel really, really good, frankly, about the safety profile.
To answer your second question in terms of the mechanism of action and the dual mechanism of action, it's important insofar as mechanism of action is important to physicians.
True.
And simply how you think about the, A, in BAFF is activating, the P in APRIL is proliferating. So if you want to treat a disease, you'd like to stop the activation and stop the proliferation. And of course, that's exactly what pove does. So we think from a mechanism of action point of view, that is important versus just doing one or the other. And certainly, in the engagements we've had with nephrologists and in the market research we've done, the dual mechanism of action is definitely seen as an advantage by nephrologists, and they would prefer to use something with a dual mechanism of action versus one with only a single mechanism of action.
Having said that, it's also true to say that mechanism of action is only ever part of the story with physicians. You can have a great mechanism of action, but you have to back it up with clinical data, dosing and administration, market access, ease of use for the product, quality patient support programs as well. So I think the duality is important in the realm of mechanism of action, but that's certainly not the only pillar of the story that I think leads you to believe that pove is best in -- has best-in-class potential.
I think just one more thing to add, too, in terms of that dual mechanism, it clearly shows up in the [indiscernible] that we provided in the press release, right, the consistency of the results across race, across region, across any of the subgroups, right? You don't see -- everything is way far to the left.
Excellent. And then with respect to the 48-week data, that will probably come shortly after the approval based upon the filing clock that you've outlined. Is that correct? Is that the right way to think about it?
I think that is correct.
It's -- so 36 weeks is the interim analysis. The full -- the final study is a 2-year study.
104...
Yes. 104 weeks. Yes.
And how will you or will you be disclosing 48-week data then early next year? Because I think the -- if I'm right, the enrollment completed in November of last year...
2025...
How should we think about that potential future disclosures?
No. I mean -- so we've published the data on the interim analysis. We feel that's going to support an accelerated approval and then the trial will run to its primary endpoint around eGFR stabilization at 104 weeks.
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Yes. And we're feeling very confident about the data that we have based on 36 weeks in the label and being able to launch the product with those data. I mean the key point -- one of the key points that Charlie alluded to is from a nephrologist point of view, they think of eGFR to understand where the patient is at and proteinuria to understand where the patient is going. And so the fact that we had very rapid, very deep and sustained impact on proteinuria and indeed the other efficacy endpoints as well is incredibly important from a nephrology community, and we'll be able to show those data to nephrologists, assuming we get regulatory approval.
Excellent. ALYFTREK?
Yes, ALYFTREK. So we're very happy with the progress that we're making both here in the U.S. and in Europe on ALYFTREK. We continue to see patients transition from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK, and I think you can expect to see that transition continuing to occur both here in the U.S. and ex U.S. for the balance of this year. I don't have any particularly new news for you on that, Dave. We expect to see the transitions continue, and we continue to hear incredibly positive physician and patient feedback on their clinical experience with ALYFTREK. So we're very happy with how it's going.
Excellent. And congrats on the recent JOURNAVX Phase IV results. Could you talk about those and why they may be more impactful than first meets the eye for the investment community?
Yes, sure. So to step back a little bit, we conducted 2 Phase IV studies. I think we communicated really top line data on them in the earnings call. We presented the first of those studies at the AAPM meeting last week, and that study was aesthetic and reconstructive surgeries. And I'll come back to the data in a second. The second study is arthroscopic and laparoscopic procedures, and those data will be presented at an upcoming medical meeting in the next, let's say, 4 to 6 weeks or so, so relatively near term.
Both of the studies had a relatively similar study design. So suzetrigine was given preoperatively and then given, obviously, postoperatively as well. And in the data presented at the AAPM last week, which again was the aesthetic and reconstructive surgery data, we saw -- the primary endpoint was patient satisfaction with treatment that came out at just above 90%, satisfaction with treatment. So they were super happy with how their pain was managed, which essentially was JOURNAVX with multimodal treatment with ibuprofen or Tylenol, but then opioids generally reserved as rescue medication.
The key endpoint that we were particularly interested in and the physician community is particularly interested in is how many patients needed that opioid rescue. And the answer to that is that 90% of them were able to treat -- complete their 14 months' worth of treatment -- 14, no months, 14 days worth of treatment without the need for using an opioid. So 90% of them were essentially opioid-free.
If you look at historic data for those procedures and how many patients are opioid-free, normally without the presence of JOURNAVX, it's about 10% of them. So it's almost reversed the numbers from 10% being opioid-free to 90% being opioid-free as a result of using JOURNAVX. So we're super happy about those data. And they are very compelling to physicians because as you alluded to in your question, they're a little bit more real -- it's a little bit more real-world use of suzetrigine rather than perhaps the studies that we did for regulatory approval.
And we saw relatively similar data in the arthroscopic and laparoscopic procedures as well, where, again, just over 75% of the patients were opioid-free over 14 days, which compares very, very favorably with the amount of opioids that would usually be used in those types of procedures. So very happy with the data. And as you say, it's very relevant to physicians because it's a bit more real-world evidence for them.
Excellent. And congrats on the exceptional progress with coverage at over 200 million lives. Could you comment on the outlook or the prospects for potential Medicare coverage?
Yes, of course. So we're very happy with securing the third PBM towards the end of last year. So we now have over 200 million lives covered, and they are actual lives covered. And we're also making great progress in Medicaid as well, 21 states also passing legislation to support the use of non-opioid treatments. And as far as Medicare is concerned, we are engaging closely with the 4 main players in the Medicare arena and are looking forward to making progress with them over the balance of 2026.
So we feel good about securing Medicare coverage. It is, I would say, relatively common place for commercial coverage to precede Medicare coverage, not least because Medicare coverage is driven by bid cycles. So you either submit into the bid cycles, which are actually happening right now and/or you seek to break the bid cycle, which we are essentially doing both of those concurrently at the moment.
Excellent.
And I would add that patients on Medicare do have access to JOURNAVX through our patient support program...
Yes.
So we had started the patient support program last year as a bridge to coverage for patients. Obviously, the patient support program has sunsetted with commercial payers where we have coverage. It continues for Medicare patients until we have coverage there.
Got it. Okay. That's very helpful. And then just looking ahead to future JOURNAVX and VX-993 readouts. Could you just walk us through the time line?
Yes. I think what we've communicated is we have two Phase III programs with JOURNAVX in DPN. We've communicated that we're intending to complete enrollment of those two studies by the end of this year. Essentially, we've accelerated the second study in order to complete enrollment broadly speaking, the same time. So we see data at a similar point in time. As you say, there is also the 993 DPN study that is ongoing. We've prioritized this as suzetrigine one, though, I would say, ones that I would say ahead of that. And then the other comment I'd make, Dave, is we also continue to make progress importantly on the NaV1.7 program as well, which we're very focused on.
Any other comments on that?
It is in late preclinical as we have previously communicated, and no further comments.
Maybe we could go back to the CF franchise. So with respect to VX-828, which Reshma had described as 3.0 opportunity for the company. She's actually sort of given some mixed messages. So she said that it looks better than ALYFTREK in vitro, but also said that it's getting really, really, really hard to improve upon ALYFTREK. So could you put that into context?
Sure. Yes. I mean, listen, both things can be true. TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK are fantastic medicines with hundreds of thousands of years of real-world evidence and patient benefit, both on ppFEV1, sweat chloride and other measures. So they are fantastic medicines. That means the bar for us or anybody else is extraordinarily high.
That said, I open by saying our -- one of our four primary goals is to extend our already significant leadership in CF. And so we do strive to do better than our own medicines. 828 preclinically does look very interesting, and we think has the potential to do even better on sweat chloride, but that's the bar that we're going to need to clear. So we'll look forward to that data this year, behind 828 or in addition to 828, we have other molecules as well that we're working on because we continue to strive for our goal to reach all patients and bring those who are eligible for CFTR modulators to carrier levels of sweat chloride. So it's an ambitious goal, particularly with the high standards set by ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA. But if anyone is going to clear that hurdle, it's going to be us.
And what's the timing for seeing that 828 -- it's Phase Ib data, correct?
We said this year, yes...
This year, second half.
Yes, second half.
Okay. All right. Very good. And maybe we could just pivot to CASGEVY. If you could just highlight how you see the hockey stick ahead?
Yes. We are very pleased, as Charlie alluded to earlier, with the progress we made on CASGEVY in 2025, particularly the results we saw in quarter 4. So over 300 patients starting the journey, 150 or so patients, cell collections, as you know, 64 patients infused. We've continued to see that progress into 2026. So we're very pleased with the progress we're making with CASGEVY.
And because it's a relatively long treatment journey, of course, we have a pretty clear line of sight in terms of revenue accomplishment in 2026. So very pleased with the progress. I would, though, remind you that quarter-by-quarter, because the patients choose when they want to get infused, that can create -- while the numbers are still relatively small, that can create some volatility around the quarterly coverage. For example, I know there's 2 patients last week who we've made their dose. We've got it ready for them. And they said that's absolutely awesome, but we'd like to do it over the summer while we're on summer vacation. So these things do influence the quarterly numbers. But overall, we feel very pleased with the progress on CASGEVY.
Excellent. Well, we are over time. So I think we need to wrap it up there. Thanks so much for being with us here today. Really appreciate it.
Yes, thanks for hosting.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Leerink Global Healthcare Conference 2026
🎯 Key Message
- Takeaway Vertex pursues a diversified growth path anchored in CF leadership and multi‑billion franchises. It accelerated povetacicept IgAN filing to end of month after strong 36‑week interim data, and sees near‑term upside from JOURNAVX and CASGEVY as it scales commercialization while advancing five Phase III programs.
🧭 Strategic Highlights
- Pove IgAN interim data: 52% UPCR reduction, 77% Gd‑IgA1 decrease, 85% hematuria resolution; no related SAEs; filing timing accelerated for potential launch.
- JOURNAVX growth: 2025 ~500k prescriptions; guidance to triple in 2026; ~200 million lives covered; positioned as a multibillion‑dollar franchise.
- Margins & Investment operating margins in low‑to‑mid 40s despite investments in CASGEVY, JOURNAVX, and pove; CF leadership complemented by a broad pipeline.
🆕 New Information
- Regulatory timing povetacicept filing moved up to end of month; 36‑week data underpin accelerated path toward approval and potential launch timelines.
- Data cadence final 104‑week endpoint and additional disclosures to come as trials complete; 48‑week data expected to be disclosed post‑approval timing.
- Access progress JOURNAVX coverage exceeds 200 million lives; Medicaid expansion in 21 states; Medicare conversations ongoing with payer bids cycles influencing timing.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Pove safety & MOA dual mechanism (BAFF/APRIL) viewed as advantageous; physician interest pairs strong data, dosing convenience, and access programs.
- Data disclosures 48‑week data anticipated after approval; 104‑week primary endpoint remains key to labeling and launch timing.
- Medicare coverage progress discussed; expectations that commercial coverage leads and Medicare follow‑on, with patient support bridging gaps.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Strategic implication Vertex is advancing a diversified, growth‑oriented portfolio with Pove IgAN as a near‑term catalyst and JOURNAVX/CASGEVY as ongoing high‑impact drivers. Margin discipline remains intact as the company funds the pipeline, though regulatory and coverage timing pose key external risks.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
1. Question Answer
Good morning, and welcome once again to TD Cowen's 46th Annual Healthcare Conference. I'm Phil Nadeau, one of the biotech analysts here at Cowen. It's my pleasure to do a fireside chat with Vertex. We have Vertex's CEO, Reshma Kewalramani with us this morning. And as many of you know who follow our research, Vertex has been one of our favorite large caps for a long time. So we're happy to dive into the details once again at the Cowen Conference.
Reshma, maybe I'll hand it over to you to begin.
Can you give us a state of the company statement? What are Vertex's strengths, its challenges? And what will it do to create shareholder value over the next year or 2?
Sure. I think, well, good morning Phil, and good morning all. It's nice to be with all of you today. From a thumbnail sketch point of view for the company, we're at a place where our CF leadership continues to be extended and expanded. We have 2 other verticals in heme with CASGEVY and in pain with JOURNAVX. And at a point where the fourth vertical, the fourth franchise, that being renal is emerging with pove in IgAN that I imagine will be the first of the renal medicines that we bring forward.
In addition to those either commercialized or near-term commercialization opportunities, the R&D pipeline continues to make very nice progress. In total, there are 5 programs in pivotal development. There are a host of programs in Phase II development, and I really like what I see coming out of research. There are some really neat programs. And if we can get to it, I know there's a lot of questions on pove, but if we can get to it, there's some really good-looking programs in research that over the coming years will be ready, I think, to come into the clinic.
And on the balance sheet side of things, the balance sheet has been and remains strong. And with our growing company, the balance sheet also is growing stronger. I'm sure we'll talk a little bit about what we're doing there. But commensurate with the size of the company, we're doing more stock buybacks, and I really like our strategy focused on innovation, both internal and external innovation, and you should expect us to be quite boring in that way, more of the same.
Can you talk a little bit more about your strategic vision for Vertex? A lot of other companies have struggled when their cornerstone franchise has begun to age. What's Vertex's strategy to thrive as cystic fibrosis matures?
Yes. I think that one thing you can count on for Vertex is we study everything. And this notion that you raised, Phil, it's a real one. Many companies in our sector have gotten to a point where there are patent cliffs nearby. There is a declining revenue base, and there is insufficient R&D momentum. And then there is a look outward to do business development, some of which may be in haste or not in keeping with strategy that oftentimes makes things worse and you end up being in this snowball going in the wrong direction.
It has nothing to do with me because it was far before I ever came to the company. But my predecessor CEO, Jeff Leiden, and the then Executive Committee have thought about this situation long and hard. When it was the KALYDECO and ORKAMBI, so we're talking 2012, 2015, the company moved on a pathway to diversification, diversification in R&D and diversification commercially. And what we have done since that time of 2012, 2015, that's when we set the strategy of R&D up, going after diseases of high unmet need where we understand causal human biology, where we go after diseases with biomarkers, efficient development and regulatory pathways, validated targets, specialty markets, and we've been doing that for the better part of a decade.
It's also why CASGEVY is already commercialized and we're the third year in and now really gaining momentum there. JOURNAVX is already commercialized. And as I said in my opening remarks, we're on the brink of the fourth pillar, the fourth vertical emerging.
So this point is a real one. It's happened a lot. We've studied it deeply. And the key to it is ensuring that we have a diversified pipeline and a diversified revenue base that we started doing 10 years ago. We didn't arrive at this point sort of by accident nor have we woken up and said, "Gosh, how did we end up here?" We've dreamed about being able to bring our company to this point to -- we've been planful about bringing our company to this point and we are extremely ready to be here with the fourth vertical emerging and many more after that.
We'll start by discussing that fourth vertical since it is quite topical. The biggest event that we expect from your pipeline in the first half of the year is the interim analysis from pove's trial in IgAN. What are Vertex's expectations for that interim analysis? And in particular, how important is it that the UPCR reduction that pove produces beats that from either Vera or Otsuka?
Okay. Sure thing. Just to complete the last thought, if some of you are newer to this. You know this point that Phil raised about the decline and the patent cliffs and such, just to make sure you have the dates. The TRIKAFTA patent doesn't expire until 2037 for the core patent. ALYFTREK is later than that. And our next wave of molecules are obviously even later than that just to close that out.
On pove, extremely exciting program. It's extremely exciting in and of itself for pove in IgAN, but it's particularly exciting to us because of the pipeline in a product potential. So it's not just about pove in IgAN, it's about pove in membranous, pove in myasthenia. And obviously, it's -- because it's the same medicine, we look forward to each readout because it informs the safety of the other potential indications. So lots of enthusiasm there.
With regard to what you should expect, we are fully on track for the data readout in the first half of the year as we've been guiding, and for us to be able to complete our submission in the first half of the year. You'll remember pove in IgAN has breakthrough designation, and the FDA has also granted rolling review, and the rolling review has already started. So that's sort of where we are.
On what you should expect from the data. We have shared the data in IgAN from RUBY-3, that was the Phase II study. And the data that we've shared had 24-week data. That was something like a 25%, 30% reduction in protein. 36-week data, that was like a 50% reduction in protein. And 48-week data, that was like a 64-week reduction in protein. And then that study continues over time.
This Phase III study, if you're trying to peg it to where should you look on the RUBY-3 data, this one is a 36-week study. There are very many similarities between RUBY-3 and RAINIER, that's what the Phase III study is called, by design. The dose is the same, the endpoint is the same, the inclusion, exclusion criteria is the same. The one difference to be aware of is that the Phase II study was a single arm change from baseline study. The Phase III study is obviously a placebo-controlled study. And so you have to adjust for that and think about that. But that's what you should be looking for.
In terms of the UPCR reduction, we've recently surveyed investors. They suggest a 47% reduction in UPCR in the interim. What are Vertex's expectations for that and how important is it that you show something numerically better than what the competition has shown?
Yes, 47% is a big number. That is a significant reduction in protein, and it should bode well for a medicine that achieves that going forward. So that seems like a fantastic result. Just remember, I happen to be a nephrologist so indulge me for a moment. The importance of protein reduction in homogeneous kidney diseases like IgAN is that it's very predictive of long-term outcomes. So that's why people focus on it.
What are we really trying to do in renal medicine? It's not actually that we're trying to reduce the protein in urine. It's not even that we're trying to stabilize the GFR. We're trying to do both those things, but that's not really the high fruit. What we're really trying to do is prevent death, dialysis and transplantation or push that out. That's the actual hard end point. In slow-moving diseases like IgAN, that takes a long time, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years. And therefore, regulatory agencies have accepted the flattening, the not declining of GFR as the regulatory enabling endpoint. And the FDA has accepted reduction in proteinuria as the surrogate endpoint.
So when you think about what are we really trying to do here, think about proteinuria for sure, think about -- because that's the accelerated approval endpoint. Think about the GFR slope because that's the regulatory enabling endpoint for full approval. But remember, what we're really trying to do is over the course of this disease in our patients, push out death, dialysis and transplantation. And in that regard, Phil's question is really important.
So what are we really trying to do with these near-term markers that we have? We are trying to drive down protein to the lowest level. We're trying to drive down hematuria, blood in your urine, to the lowest level. We're trying to drive Gd-IgA levels down. Gd-IgA is to IgAN as sweat chloride is to CF. It is the proximate pharmacodynamic marker. And so we are looking at all of these elements to get them down to the best levels because think about it as compounding over time, over the next 5 years, 10 years, 20 years. The drug that does that best has the best opportunity to get our patients out of this death, dialysis and transplantation.
The data that all of us are showing, Vertex included, are 36-week data. It's just the beginning. And if you look at RUBY-3, obviously, 24 weeks gets you a certain number, 36 weeks gets you another number, 48 weeks gets you another number and so on and so forth. So these are very important. And I think your number of 47% is a very big number, and I think that would be fabulous.
In terms of safety, investors are focused on low IgG. I think the KOLs we talked to are more focused on infections. How does Vertex frame the safety data at the interim? And what should we pay attention to?
The safety data, if you break that down, thinking about infections is the right thing to think about. At the end of the day, this disease, IgAN, is a disease that's mediated by B cells and it is a disease of autoantibodies. So what you are doing, if you're using a B cell mediator to control this disease is you're tamping down on B cells. When you do that, you are going to decrease immunoglobulin levels, that's how these drugs work. You're going to decrease IgA levels, you want that, right? Because that's the Gd-IgA, that's the aberrant autoantibody. You are going to decrease IgG, you're going to decrease IgM. But you're going to decrease the Gd-IgA more than those others, but that's how these drugs work.
And I think that the Phase II data are a good representation of what you could expect in terms of the benefit risk. What I would be looking for is in that category of infections and what you're really trying to make sure is that you don't have serious infections. You don't have opportunistic infections. You should expect immunoglobulins to go down, and you should expect a focus to make sure that the infections are manageable, but you are indeed tamping down on the B cell. So that is the right area to focus on.
How does Vertex expect to position pove in the market?
The market is a big market. In the U.S. and Europe, 300,000 -- 330,000 people with IgA nephropathy, add another 700,000 or so patients in, let's call it, Greater China, add some more for Japan, Korea, et cetera. It's a big rare disease. You clearly need to have a positive benefit risk profile. You clearly need to have efficacy that is sufficient for approval and a risk profile that's acceptable. You need that. It's table stakes.
But beyond that, how is a physician going to select which medicine they want to use. To me, the first next thing after you go through safety and efficacy is dosing and administration. As we discussed, this is a disease where you're going to take this medicine chronically for the next 10, 15, 20 years, for the rest of your life. There are 3 advantages that Vertex and pove has that no other medicine has. And we're not waiting for anything. We already know that there are advantages.
First, it's once monthly dosing. Nobody prefers to take an injection weekly if you can take an injection monthly. Maybe nobody is an exaggeration, but you can look at market research, it's far preferable to take monthly dosing versus weekly dosing. We already know that we have that.
Second, the pove medicine is a very low-volume injection. It's 0.46 ml. Third, it's in an auto-injector. The only medicine that has all of those qualities is pove, and I think that's a huge differentiator.
Second, in the marketplace, pove is -- not only pove in IgAN, but it's pove in membranous. And I think in nephrology, we're calling this immunonephrology. That's the positive side. We're finally going to have medicines that are target therapies. But some people are calling this the tsunami of therapies coming to renal medicine. We, as nephrologists, are going to have to learn a lot of new therapies. And I think having one drug that can potentially treat multiple indications is a plus in that regard.
And then thirdly, I've been moved, taken by how many times I've been asked, and I don't think it's because I'm a nephrologist, I think it's because I work at Vertex. People in the renal field have asked me to come and talk about what's happened in CF. How did that disease move from high mortality, transplantation is the only real available option to a chronic disease. And how should we be thinking about this in renal medicine? And we are bringing not only pove in IgAN, but pove in membranous, inaxaplin in AMKD, and VX-407 in ADPKD. So there's like a whole suite of medicines, and I think that's an advantage to Vertex. So we are looking to compete, we're looking to earn the business, and we're looking to win.
Turning to inaxaplin as the next interim analysis expected over the next 12 months. Can you remind people of the inaxaplin program, AMKD and Vertex's enthusiasm for it.
Yes. So AMKD is APOL1 mediated kidney disease. The Phase III program is a pure AMKD or, let's call it, primary AMKD. So the only disease that you have that we know about is that you have 2 APOL1 alleles, proteinuria and reduced GFR. We have a separate study we can get to that looks at people with 2 APOL1 alleles, and potentially another disease like diabetes. But the Phase III study is a pure APOL1 mediated kidney disease group.
We have already completed the enrollment of the interim analysis cohort, and we are on track for those interim analysis Phase III results towards the tail end of this year or beginning of next. If those results are positive, we would be set up to file for accelerated approval in the U.S. So that's sort of how that one looks.
And the enthusiasm for that one is high because the Phase II results looked pretty neat, 47.6% reduction in protein, that's big. And this is a real example of precision medicine, right? This has the trifecta of what every drug developer wants in their Phase III trials. One, it's a genetic inclusion criteria, 2 APOL1 alleles. Two, it's an adaptive design. It was designed as a seamless Phase II/III. And three, there's a pathway already agreed to with the FDA for potential accelerated approval.
You referenced the AMPLIFIED trial from which we'll get data midyear this year. How will Vertex use that data to decide whether to move into the additional patients? And what's your confidence that you'll see efficacy given that those -- the patients being studied are much more complicated?
Yes. The reason we separated out -- the Phase III program is called AMPLITUDE. The separate Phase II program is called AMPLIFIED. So in the AMPLIFIED study, we have one cohort that is 2 APOL1 alleles and lower proteinuria. And we have a second cohort that's 2 APOL1 alleles and diabetes as a comorbidity. So as an example of not a pure AMKD.
The reason we separated these is because it is less clear what the role of APOL1 is when you have a second disease like diabetes. In other words, if you have APOL1 and you have diabetes, does the treatment of diabetes take care of your proteinuria and your kidney disease? Unknown. So we have to study this separately.
So the way I imagine this will work is we'll have the results in the 2 APOL1 alleles and lower proteinuria group, and 2 APOL1 alleles and diabetes group. And then we're going to be waiting for the results of the 2 APOL1 alleles in the pure group. And then we can do next steps after that. It is an -- easier is not the right, it's a more -- it's a cleaner study to do the Phase III study the way we've done it because there's only one thing that we're worrying about. It's about 2 APOL1 alleles, proteinuria and low GFR. But we'll take that together to make our next steps for 2 APOL1 alleles with a comorbidity or lower proteinuria.
Turning to your marketed portfolio. Your CF franchise guidance for this year assumes growth of 8% to 9% year-over-year. What continues to drive growth for that franchise?
Yes, 3 things for continued near-term growth in CF. The first is going down to lower age groups. The second is geographic expansion. And the third is ongoing launch of ALYFTREK around the globe. You know, of course, that we launched ALY here in the U.S. starting around about January of last year. It was approved in Europe and in other regions outside the U.S., let's say, sort of in the middle of last year, and then we have to work for reimbursement. Now we're at the point where we have reimbursement in the Nordic countries, Germany, the U.K., et cetera, and we're working to get reimbursement around other countries.
A more recent example, just to make it concrete for you, is Italy. ALY just got -- ALYFTREK just got reimbursed in Italy, and there are more mutations in the ALY label than even in the TRIKAFTA label. And these ultra rare mutations are more common in Southern Europe. So as an example, in Italy, there are 1,500 patients who are now newly eligible for a CFTR modulator because ALY has more mutations. So those are the 3 ways of growth for the near term.
Investors are paying increasing attention to the potential for competition, both from other small molecules as well as genomic therapies. What's Vertex's opinion of the competitive environment?
Okay. So let's separate out small molecules from everything else. If you think about cystic fibrosis, although it is seen as a lung disease, it is actually a systemic disease. We just focus on the lung because unfortunately, that's what our patients die of, of lung failure. .
So if you're trying to think about the perfect way to treat cystic fibrosis, you would use a small molecule approach. That's the best way to treat it because it's liver disease, it's pancreas disease, it's gut disease, it's sweat chloride full body skin disease. Back in the day, people with CF would be small, breathing hard, malnourished because it's a systemic disease So. I think the best approach is a small molecule.
For the 5,000 or so, it's actually becoming increasingly uncommon because TRIKAFTA and now ALY treat more and more mutations. For the patients who just simply don't make any protein, you need a nucleic acid approach, but that's the small component. So that's how you could think about CF as a whole.
With regard to potential competition in small molecules, what I would say is that the medicine that I'm most concerned about that I think is a real potential threat to ALY is VX-828. VX-828 is our next gen. It's actually next, next, next gen, it's next gen 3.0. TRIKAFTA was next gen 1.0. ALYFTREK is Vertex's next gen 2.0. And the VX-828 medicine. And there's another one in that family called VX-581. Those are the next gen 3.0 medicines. They, in vitro, look even better than ALY. And now that's getting to be increasingly difficult. I mean I know I've said it to you that's even -- it's hard to beat TRIKAFTA. Yes, we did it with ALY, but it is getting really, really hard.
I said this on the last earnings call, but there was so much interest in pove. I'm not sure if everyone registered it, ALY, so ALYFTREK in 2- to 5-year-olds, 2/3 are below the normal threshold of sweat chloride. So you and I, presumably in this room, if we don't have CF, our sweat chloride is some number less than 30. The diagnostic threshold is 60. Our goal used to be bringing the majority of our patients to less than the diagnostic threshold, but that's been blown past. Now we're working on bringing the majority of patients down to less than 30. But with these recent ALY results, we're already there, 65%, 2/3 of the patients are already normal.
So like there's very little unmet need, but boy, if there's any way to do better than that, we're motivated to do it, and we're committed to being the ones who do so. So if you're thinking about ALY and how can -- what's next, I would look at VX-828.
Maybe one last question. Capital deployment, how does Vertex prioritize business development versus returning capital to shareholders?
Yes. As I said in my introductory comments, quite boring, broken record, more of the same, stay close to our knitting, any analogy that you want to pick, that's us. We have a very stringent view of R&D. We have this very particular way of doing it. We are disease first. We're not therapeutic area-focused. We're not platform aligned. We will use any tool, mRNA, cell therapy, gene editing, small molecule, biologic. We see them as simply tools to crack new disease areas. We see our job in the way of creating most shareholder and patient value by cracking open new disease areas, and that's what we're busy doing. We have this thing that we call the Sandbox, it's imaginary, but it's our box where we put the diseases of interest. There are between 12 and 24 diseases of interest in there, and we methodically work on those. We do those internally, and we do that with external innovation. And one clear example of that is what we're doing in DM1, myotonic dystrophy type 1. It's actually the most common muscular dystrophy more than DMD.
We have a small molecule program internally that we're working on. And we in-licensed an oligo plus circular peptide approach from Entrada. And we're working on both approaches. And it's just a good example of we're disease first, and we are -- we do not have any issues with the not invented here mentality. And in this example, we have a program that was fully internal, and we have one program that we in-licensed. You should expect more of the same from us.
Perfect. With that, I think we're out of time. Thank you.
All right. Phil, thank you so much. Thank you all. Thanks so much.
That was great.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — TD Cowen 46th Annual Health Care Conference
🎯 Key Message
- Takeaway: Vertex pursues a durable, multi-franchise growth path beyond CF, anchored by POVE in IgAN and a broad nephrology portfolio, while CF momentum continues with ALYFTREK and geographic expansion. Balance sheet strength and ongoing buybacks support innovation-friendly growth.
🚀 Strategic Highlights
- Diversified Portfolio: 4 franchises with 5 pivotal programs and a suite of Phase II assets, building a pipeline designed for long-term growth beyond CF.
- Nephrology Focus: POVE offers once-monthly dosing, low-volume injections, and auto-injector delivery, plus multi-indication potential in nephrology.
- CF Momentum: ALYFTREK rollout accelerates with geographic expansion and reimbursement progress, including Italy, broadening access globally.
🆕 New Information
- POVE IgAN interim: Data expected in H1 with rolling FDA review; interim UPCR reductions around the 47–50% range could support near-term regulatory milestones.
- AMPLITUDE/AMPLIFIED: Distinct Phase III AMPLITUDE program vs. Phase II/III AMPLIFIED, with separate cohorts (diabetes comorbidity) guiding next steps and potential approvals.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- IgAN readout: Interim UPCR and long-term endpoints (GFR slope) are pivotal; safety signals (infections, immunoglobulin declines) and regulatory implications are closely watched.
- CF competition: Next-gen candidates such as VX-828/VX-581 pose potential threats; ALY growth relies on data, with sweat chloride improvements signaling ongoing CFTR restoration.
- Capital deployment: Emphasis on disciplined, disease-first R&D; Sandbox framework for new disease areas and balanced internal/external innovation, plus DM1 programs as examples.
⚡ Bottom Line
Vertex signals a diversified, multi-franchise growth engine led by POVE in IgAN and a growing nephrology portfolio, while CF remains a core driver via ALYFTREK and global launches. The firm emphasizes disciplined R&D and capital allocation aimed at long-term shareholder value.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Susie Lisa. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone. My name is Susie Lisa and as Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, I'd like to welcome you to our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results conference call. On tonight's call, making prepared remarks we have Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, Vertex's CEO and President; Charlie Wagner, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer; and Duncan McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. The call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.
We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements, including, without limitation, those regarding Vertex's marketed medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, beta-thalassemia and moderate to severe acute pain, our pipeline and Vertex's future financial performance are based on management's current assumptions. Actual outcomes and events could differ materially.
I would also note that select financial results and guidance that we will review on the call this evening are presented on a non-GAAP basis. I'll now turn the call over to Reshma.
Thank you, Susie. Good evening all, and thank you for joining us on the call today. 2025 was marked by excellent progress across the business, disciplined commercial execution in CF and the new product launches, meaningful pipeline progress and robust financial performance. Fourth quarter results wrapped up another strong year with 10% total revenue growth, and for the full year 2025, total revenue growth was 9%.
As we executed on our plans for commercial diversification, full year '25 results included CASGEVY revenue of $116 million and JOURNAVX revenue of $60 million in the 8 months since launch. Building on the momentum of our Q4 and full year 2025 results, in 2026, we are focused on increasing the number of patients we serve and further diversifying our revenue base. 2026 priorities include: expanding leadership in CF, accelerating adoption of CASGEVY, growing JOURNAVX both in prescriptions and revenue and advancing the emerging renal franchise, starting with povetacicept in IgAN.
We are entering an exciting period and Vertex is well positioned to deliver on the significant opportunities in front of. Us and drive sustained growth over the long term by combining commercial execution with serial innovation and rapidly advancing the pipeline across multiple serious disease areas. With that overview, I'll focus my R&D comments tonight on cystic fibrosis and the renal franchise.
Beginning with cystic fibrosis, ALYFTREK is a next-generation 2.0 CFTR modulator and is the fifth approved CF therapy in our portfolio. ALYFTREK brings many important benefits for patients once daily dosing, regulatory approval in additional mutations and the best CFTR protein function restoration in our CF portfolio. As continued evidence of this, I am pleased to share the top line results from the recently completed ALYFTREK III trial, this one in 2 to 5 year olds.
All patients in this study were on TRIKAFTA and switched to ALYFTREK on entry into the study. ALYFTREK was safe and well tolerated, and the sweat chloride data showed a mean reduction of 9.6 millimoles from TRIKAFTA baseline. Importantly, of 65% of these ALYFTREK patients achieved levels of sweat chloride below the normal or carrier level of 30 millimoles, when treated through 24 weeks. This compares to 37.5% of patients had normal levels of sweat chloride at baseline on TRIKAFTA. This magnitude of sweat chloride reduction is unprecedented for this age group in cystic fibrosis.
We are on track to initiate global regulatory submissions for ALYFTREK in the 2- to 5-year-old age group in the first half of this year. And as we continue to march down to younger age groups, I'm also pleased to share that the ALYFTREK 1 to 2-year old study has already initiated and enrollment in dosing are underway.
Turning now to our next wave of CFTR modulators or next Gen 3.0 medicines. In this Class VX-828 is the most efficacious corrector we have ever studied in vitro and advanced studies in patients. the VX-828 proof-of-concept study is on track to complete enrollment and dosing in the first half of 2026. The VX-581, another corrector from this 3.0 class is currently in a Phase I healthy volunteer study. And beyond these 2 assets, we are advancing additional CF regimens.
Shifting to the VX-522 program for the approximately 5,000 patients who do not make any CFTR protein and therefore, cannot benefit from our CFTR modulators, our Phase I/II study of VX-522 is on track for readout in the second half of this year, and we aren't stopping there. We are poised to continue to expand our CF leadership position driven by more than 20 years of serial innovation and enduring goal that if it is possible to do better for us patients, we are committed to doing so and unmatched 200,000-plus patient years of real-world data and a proven ability to extend the benefits of our medicines to the youngest patients.
Moving next to our renal pipeline, which is emerging as our fourth vertical alongside CF, heme and pain as a key engine for Vertex's next decade of growth. Povetacicept, a dual BAFF APRIL inhibitor is the most advanced asset in our renal pipeline with the first expected indication in IgA nephropathy or IgAN. IgAN is a progressive kidney disease with high unmet need that affects 330,000 people in the U.S. and Europe and more than 1 million people in Asia. We see pove's dual BAFF APRIL inhibition as key to interdicting the underlying cause of IgA nephropathy because this is a disease driven by B cells, and BAFF APRIL are the key cytokines that play distinct roles in B-cell proliferation, differentiation and survival.
In addition to the mechanism of action, pove's biophysical characteristics enable a differentiated profile. Pove was specifically engineered to achieve improvements in binding affinity, potency, pharmacokinetics and tissue distribution. This protein engineering translates to 2 key areas of downstream advantage. First, in terms of efficacy, through Phase II, pove's delivered substantial reductions in proteinuria and stabilization in GFR, supported by significant reductions in DDIgA1 and hematuria.
As importantly, pove's meaningful advantages in dosing. Pove is administered as a once monthly small volume, subcutaneous dose delivered via an auto-injector. A noteworthy consideration in the chronic biologics market, where ease of use has repeatedly been shown to influence product choice. Pove's progressing through the BLA regulatory pathway, where FDA's granted Breakthrough Therapy designation as well as rolling review. We use the priority review voucher to ensure an expedited time line for regulatory review and initiated our rolling BLA submission by submitting the first module in December of '25.
We remain on track to complete the BLA submission in the first half of this year if the Phase III interim analysis results are supportive. Switching to pove in membranous nephropathy, a disease that affects approximately 150,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe and over 400,000 patients in Asia, where we've partnered with Xi and Ono for these markets as we did in IgAN, membranous nephropathy, like IgAN, carries significant morbidity and lacks disease-modifying therapies.
Accordingly, pove has FDA Fast Track and EMA prime designations and was recently granted orphan drug designation in the U.S. The OLYMPUS Phase II/III adaptive study of pove in membranous is enrolling and dosing patients. I am pleased to share we remain on track to complete the Phase II portion of this study and advance to Phase III this summer.
Before updating you on the 2 other renal programs in mid- and late-stage clinical development, let me shift focus briefly to neurology and pove's potential as a pipeline in a product with our plans in generalized myasthenia gravis. The rationale to study pove in myasthenia is compelling. First, it's a serious disease with high morbidity; second, there are approximately 175,000 patients with myasthenia in the U.S. and Europe and an estimated 300,000 patients globally; third, current therapies have limitations in terms of mechanism of action, specificity or the need for cyclical administration.
This need for cyclical administration is particularly challenging as it can lead to disease relapse and progressive damage to neuromuscular junctions. In contrast, pove's dosed chronically and does not require cycling on and off. Lastly, recent human clinical pharmacology results provide strong evidence for dual BAFF APRIL inhibition as a transformative approach. Putting this all together, we believe pove's mechanism of action and specifically engineered protein format provide best-in-class potential in myasthenia.
I am pleased to share that we're on track to initiate a proof-of-concept Phase II dose-ranging study of pove in myasthenia in the first half of 2026. Now returning back to renal and inaxaplin for APOL1-mediated kidney disease or AMKD, where we completed enrollment in the interim analysis cohort of the AMPLITUDE pivotal study last fall. We anticipate several key upcoming inaxaplin milestones: first, completing enrollment in the AMPLITUDE full clinical trial cohort in the second half of this year. Second, results from the AMPLITUDE interim analysis cohort either late this year or early next.
And if the results are positive to file for U.S. accelerated approval thereafter. Finally, in the AMPLIFIED study of inaxaplin in patients with AMKD and moderate proteinuria or patients with AMKD and type 2 diabetes patient groups, we did not study in amplitude, we expect results in mid-2026. The last program in renal to cover tonight is VX-407, which is being studied in a Phase II proof-of-concept trial for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease or ADPKD.
This disease affects 300,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe with no available disease-modifying treatments. VX-407 is a small molecule, protein folding corrector that targets the underlying cause of disease in up to 10% to people with ADPKD. The VX-407 Phase II proof-of-concept study is up and running, and we expect to complete enrollment this year. This study will evaluate the effect of VX-407 on height-adjusted total kidney volume, an important efficacy outcome given that it's an FDA accepted surrogate endpoint in ADPKD.
I'll close with 2 quick updates on a couple of other R&D programs. For CASGEVY , we remain on track to file for U.S. approval in patients ages 5 to 11 in the first half of this year. Recall, this has been granted a commissioner's national priority voucher and thus, we expect an expedited review. For JOURNAVX in acute pain, a pair of single-arm JOURNAVX Phase I studies have been recently completed and will be presented at medical conferences this spring. one in aesthetics and reconstructive procedures and another in laparoscopic and arthroscopic procedures. In both studies, JOURNAVX was used as part of multimodal pain therapy.
The first study in plastic surgery procedures showed approximately 90% of patients remained opioid-free versus less than 10% opioid-free rates in the literature with standard of care for similar procedures. In the second study, which included arthroscopic knee and shoulder procedures as well as laparoscopic procedures, 76% of JOURNAVX patients remained opioid-free versus less than 50% of opioid-free rates in the literature with standard of care for similar procedures.
And in chronic neuropathic pain, or 2 [indiscernible] Phase III studies in patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathy remain on track to complete enrollment by the end of this year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Duncan to review the commercial highlights.
Thanks, Reshma. The focus of the commercial organization in 2025 was to drive multiple successful launches fueled by clear strategic intent, disciplined execution and targeted investments. We launched a ALYFTREK in the U.S. and Europe, built momentum behind the launch of CASGEVY in the U.S., Europe and the Middle East and successfully executed on the first year of launch for JOURNAVX here in the U.S. .
We're pleased with the progress we're making to diversify our revenue growth and treat patients in 4 diseases around the world. In cystic fibrosis, our goal has been to help patients get to carrier or normal levels of CFTR function as measured by sweat chloride. We've made incredible progress against this goal for patients with all mutations, all age ranges and all geographies. We now have 5 approved CFTR modulators, a decade plus of real-world evidence over 77,000 patients on one of our CF therapies and access agreements in over 60 countries across 6 continents.
We continue to drive growth from new patients, new launches, new geographies and new reimbursement agreements, all supported by an underlying 3% annual increase in the CF population over the last 5 years. Focusing now on ALYFTREK, the rollout in the U.S. and Europe continues to progress well. The vast majority of treatment-naive patients in countries where we have reimbursement are already on ALYFTREK. We also see continued ongoing transitions from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK and the majority of ALYFTREK scripts continue to come from switches. ALYFTREK's improved sweat chloride profile and once-daily dosing versus TRIKAFTA are resonating with the clinical community even as we observe strong patient loyalty to TRIKAFTA.
In Europe, we have already secured reimbursed access for ALYFTREK in key countries, for example, England, Ireland, Germany, Denmark and Norway. We also recently announced reimbursement for ALYFTREK in Australia, New Zealand and Italy, the latter enabling access for 1,500 patients to a CFTR modulator for the first time. Additionally, we continue to make excellent progress expanding geographically with meaningful contributions in 2025 from Brazil and Turkey.
Overall, 2025 was another year of strong execution and growth in CF and we will continue these efforts into 2026. Key drivers of growth for CF in '26 include continuing the launch of ALYFTREK globally, treating younger patients, expanding to additional geographies, securing access for patients and maintaining our comprehensive patient support programs.
Turning now to CASGEVY, where we successfully moved from a foundational year in 2024 to a year of building significant momentum in 2025. You can see the evidence of this acceleration in our excellent quarter 4 '25 results, where CASGEVY had 111 new patient initiations 37 patients with first cell collections and 30 patients receiving infusions driving $54 million in quarterly revenue. We also reached some notable reimbursement agreements for CASGEVY in quarter 4 '25.
In the U.S., more than 30 states have joined the CMS cell and gene therapy access model, and there is now approximately 90% access for both Medicaid and commercial CASGEVY patients with the remainder having case-by-case access. In Europe, all countries in the U.K. are now providing reimbursed access and a recent landmark coverage decision by the Italian reimbursement body represents about 5,000 eligible TDT patients of Europe's beta-thalassemia population.
We anticipate seeing continued quarter-to-quarter variability in CASGEVY infusions in 2026 based on the duration of the patient journey and given the fact that patients themselves dictate when they wish to receive their infusion. We anticipate this will smooth out in 2027 and beyond as the number of patients at all stages of the treatment journey continues to build. Overall, we're very encouraged by the robust flow of patients in the U.S., in Europe and the Middle East moving from referral to cell collection and infusion as we drive towards realizing CASGEVY's multibillion dollar potential.
Moving to pain. I'm pleased to report that JOURNAVX achieved our 2025 launch objectives of, firstly, securing broad payer access; secondly, ensuring extensive hospital adoption; and thirdly, creating a broad prescriber base across both the hospital and retail segments. This launch strategy was designed to create a strong long-term foundation for years of growth with JOURNAVX. More than 550,000 JOURNAVX prescriptions were filled in 2025 with a roughly 50-50 split between hospital and retail channels.
There were as many prescriptions written in the fourth quarter of 2025 as they were in the prior 3 quarters cumulatively, although I would note that quarter 4 revenue growth does not yet fully reflect. This strong prescription growth given the continued utilization of our patient support programs. Importantly, more than 35,000 physicians wrote prescriptions for JOURNAVX in 2025, including orthopedic surgeons, general surgeons, anesthesiologists, pain specialists, dentists and general practitioners.
Over 200 million lives now have access across all 3 national PBMs. In addition, 21 states now provide unrestricted access for Medicaid recipients without prior authorization or step edit requirements. JOURNAVX has also been incorporated into formularies, order sets and/or discharge protocols across more than 950 hospitals and over 100 integrated delivery networks, a significant accomplishment in a short period of time and an indicator of the unmet need in this space.
Perhaps most importantly, we estimate that about 420,000 Americans benefited from the inclusion of JOURNAVX in their treatment journey as an effective, well-tolerated non-opioid option for moderate-to-severe acute pain. Looking ahead, given the strong adoption of JOURNAVX by hospitals and physicians and the progress we've made in securing payer coverage, we plan to double the size of our field force in quarter 2. We will also continue with a range of consumer engagement activities to drive meaningful prescription and revenue growth in 2026.
This includes the recent launch of our first Vertex Connected TV campaign in January, which we are piloting in select markets. In 2026, we expect to more than triple the number of JOURNAVX prescriptions compared to the approximately 550,000 written in 2025. As we work to finalize access and gain coverage with additional payers, including Medicare Part D plans, we have made the strategic decision to maintain the patient support program for those patients not covered by their insurance as this PSP program sunsets and gross to net normalizes in late 2026 early 2027, we expect prescription growth to increasingly drive meaningful revenue growth, especially in the latter half of the year.
Our expectation is that JOURNAVX gross to net will ultimately settle at levels comparable to other branded medicines. We're excited to continue to drive a transformation in the management of the 80 million Americans with moderate to severe acute pain each year by offering a safe and effective non-opioid treatment option and to build another multibillion-dollar franchise for Vertex.
Turning now to our emerging renal business. We are partnering with and investing in the nephrology community for the long term and povetacicept is the first in a series of potentially transformative medicines that tackle the underlying cause of several renal diseases, IGAN, PMN, AMKD and ADPKD. We anticipate that the renal franchise will ultimately rival the scale of our CF business, and we're seeking to bring the best elements of our success in CF to these kidney disease areas.
These best practices include an intense focus on the patient, an unrelenting commitment to serial innovation in R&D, a clear high science sell to specialist physicians and disciplined execution in securing reimbursed access here in the U.S. and around the world. We will also offer comprehensive patient support programs for eligible patients to remove access challenges and enable them to more seamlessly obtain the medicine that HCPs prescribe. We believe our experience, focus and capabilities equip us to win in renal and deliver substantial value to both patients and health care providers.
povetacicept's potential best-in-class profile enables us to clearly distinguish it within the IgA nephropathy landscape, setting it apart from other therapies. As Reshma detailed, pove is an engineered fusion protein designed specifically to address B cell-mediated autoimmune diseases with a strong clinical profile that is further supported by an easy-to-use small-volume auto-injector administered at home every 4 weeks. The importance of this insight has been borne out in our recent research with nephrologists who highlight the importance of payer access and preference for an auto-injector versus prefilled syringe in their treatment decisions. This market research with nephrologists reinforces what we've seen in the biologics space many times over.
Commercial excellence, combined with patient convenience and ease of use of the medicine are critical drivers of market share. We began preparing for povetacicept's launch last year by building a commercial team for renal and engaging payers to ensure broad access. We're completing the staffing of our teams and the first contingent of our field team is already trained and actively engaging customers and providing disease education.
As noted above, we're also developing a comprehensive renal patient support program based on our decade plus of experience supporting cystic fibrosis patients. In summary, each of our commercialization areas reflects a clear strategic intent and an ambitious approach to both established and future launches. Our 2025 performance positions the portfolio for continued revenue growth, deeper market penetration and most importantly, broader patient impact across cystic fibrosis, hematological disorders, moderate to severe acute pain and potentially in the future multiple renal diseases.
I'll now turn the call over to Charlie for our financial results and outlook.
Thanks, Duncan. I'm pleased to share the details of Vertex's strong financial performance in the fourth quarter and for the full year 2025, which stands as a testament to our market leadership, the strength of our product portfolio and our disciplined approach to investment and operational management. .
In the fourth quarter, total revenue reached $3.2 billion, a 10% increase compared to Q4 2024. For the full year, total revenue was $12 billion, an increase of 9% versus 2024. These results reflect our consistent commercial execution, durable CF franchise strength and expansion into new high-value disease areas. Our cystic fibrosis therapies remain the foundation of our revenue and cash flow with full year 2025 growth of 7% globally.
CF revenue in the U.S. grew 11% year-over-year, largely due to pediatric uptake, ongoing strength in TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK, higher realized net prices and a modest benefit from channel inventory in the fourth quarter. Internationally, CF revenue grew 2% year-over-year, reflecting the ongoing penetration of KAFTRIO in established markets and contributions from ALYFTREK in countries where reimbursed, partly offset by the previously communicated $200 million decline in Russia sales for the year.
CASGEVY achieved $54 million in revenue in Q4 and $116 million for the full year 2025. And during Q4 demonstrated continued momentum in patient initiations and first cell collections. JOURNAVX delivered $27 million in sales in the fourth quarter and $60 million for the full year, with substantial growth in quarterly prescription since its launch in Q1 of 2025. Note that JOURNAVX gross to net was significantly impacted by our patient support program in 2025, and that impact will diminish over the course of 2026.
Our increasingly diversified commercial portfolio now spanning 4 disease areas is driving new revenue streams and adding to our near- and long-term growth profile. Our fourth quarter gross margin of 85.7% reflects this product mix as well as investment in manufacturing optimization for our diversifying portfolio. I would add that Q4 gross margin is a reasonable proxy for what to expect in 2026.
Turning to operating expenses. Q4 2025 combined non-GAAP R&D acquired IPR&D and SG&A expenses totaled $1.4 billion, up 5% year-over-year and reflect our strategic investments in product launches, principally in pain and late-stage pipeline programs. Fourth quarter non-GAAP operating expenses included $56.5 million of AIP R&D expense or approximately $0.22 per share. This fourth quarter BD activity included an exclusive global license agreement with WuXi Biologics to develop and commercialize a trispecific T-cell engager for B cell-mediated autoimmune diseases.
This asset is currently in preclinical development. For the full year, combined non-GAAP R&D acquired IPR&D and SG&A expenses totaled $5.1 billion, consistent with our previous guidance. Excluding acquired IPR&D, the increase versus prior year was primarily driven by the acceleration of late-stage clinical programs in renal medicine and ongoing expansion of commercial and marketing activities to support the launch of JOURNAVX and upcoming launches in renal.
The fourth quarter 2025 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 13.5%, reflecting increased utilization of onetime tax credits and our full year 2025 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 17.3%. Q4 non-GAAP net income was $1.3 billion, up 24% year-over-year, delivering $5.03 of earnings per share, up 26% versus the prior year. Full year 2025, non-GAAP net income of $4.7 billion resulted in $18.40 of EPS.
Vertex ended 2025 with $12.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities. Our strong balance sheet positions us to continue investments in both internal and external innovation. During 2025, we increased our repurchase activity, buying approximately 4.8 million shares for roughly $2 billion. This reflects our ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining the flexibility to act on growth opportunities.
Let me now turn to guidance for 2026. We expect full year 2026 total company revenue to be in the range of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion, representing 8% to 9% growth versus the prior year. This outlook anticipates continued solid performance from our CF franchise and a $500 million or greater revenue contribution from non-CF products, including greater volumes of patient infusions for CASGEVY and a ramp of JOURNAVX prescriptions.
In Q1 2026, we anticipate year-over-year total revenue growth of approximately 7% with growth accelerating thereafter and building towards our full year guidance. Additionally, we expect combined non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion as we continue to invest in our late-stage clinical pipeline and commercial build-outs in support of new launches and revenue diversification, particularly for JOURNAVX in acute pain and for renal.
We anticipate our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be in the range of 19.5% to 20.5% for 2026 as we do not expect a repeat of the onetime tax benefits we experienced in 2025. In addition, based on our understanding of current rules, we do not expect a material impact from tariffs given our diversified supply chain and large U.S. manufacturing presence, but this outlook is subject to change.
In summary, 2025 was a year of very strong performance, continued execution on our commercial priorities and clinical programs and further strengthening of our robust financial foundation. As we turn to 2026 and beyond, Vertex remains well positioned to continue expanding our impact for patients, investors and all stakeholders. We look forward to updating you on our progress on future calls, and I'll now ask Susie to begin the Q&A period.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Cory Kasimov with Evercore ISI.
2. Question Answer
Probably not surprising that it's on pove. Curious how you view the risk of potential hypogamma adverse events? And how this could ultimately impact the label, if at all?
Tore, this is Reshma. Let me take that one. On hypogammaglobulinemia, that's to say low IgG levels, the way back APRIL inhibitors work, you're going to see [ decrease ] in IgG. It's part and parcel of the mechanism of action. But the important question you're asking is, what does that mean, if anything, on safety. So the data that we've shown is RUBY-3, the 80-milligram RUBY-3 cohort that we showed at [ ASCEND ] in November, what you see there is there were actually no SAEs, none of infection. It doesn't matter what IgG level you look at. There was simply none.
That's good news. There was a single patient with IgG levels of less than 300 milligrams. That was a threshold we use. It was not associated with any serious infection, and there was no severe infection either. And on average, when you look at the IgG levels from the RUBY-3 IGAN study, the average value was within the normal range, so let's say, around 700 mg. So when I look at that, I don't really see anything there. And I think that when you look at the overall benefit risk, including IgG levels, but look at everything as a whole, it looks really very good.
Your next question will come from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
With regard to the guidance here, is there any way you could help us understand what's baked into the guide for the CF component relative to ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA. And on ALYFTREK, in particular, you had a strong quarter. So walk us through the contributing factors here as we think of the trajectory for 2026.
Well, we are going to split that question and ask Charlie to go first on the guide and then I'll ask Duncan to comment on the market dynamics that led to the ALY numbers we shared.
Yes. Savi, no additional color on the guidance. Obviously, total revenue guidance of $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion. so 8% to 9% for the year. Within that, the contribution -- a non-CF contribution of $500 million or more within CF, we're not going to break it down further in terms of ALY versus other products? Maybe Duncan can comment on the dynamics in JOURNAVX that we're seeing right now. .
Sure. Thanks for the question, Salveen. So I'd say the fourth quarter was buoyed by the international launch. So we, as you know, secured reimbursement in Europe in countries like the U.K., Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Norway in 2025. So that really helps drive some of the numbers that we saw in the latter part of 2025, and we expect that to continue obviously into 2026.
The next question will come from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
Just I have a couple. The first one, you guys seem really excited about pove's potential as well as the renal space. I guess the question is, is there work to do on the payer side when you think about access and reimbursement and maybe cost benefit. When you look historically, Reshma, renal hasn't been a category where you get higher realized value, but obviously, a new MOA can help that. And then just a follow-up on Ali, is there more interest in the U.S. and using sweat chloride as a disease biomarker and you mentioned the European launch. I mean, how would you characterize maybe the awareness and willingness to switch to ALY compared to the U.S.
Sorry. Geoff, I'm going to ask Duncan to comment on both, but we'll take it in 2 parts. Let's do ALY first, Duncan, having folks how the community think about sweet chloride, U.S. versus ex U.S., how do you see the uptake. And then let's get to pove. Geoff, you are absolutely right to detect a ton of enthusiasm in our voice on pove. It's not just about pove in iGaN, but it's pove in membranous in myasthenia and it is getting close to the time where we think we're going to have the results to share and close to the time where we think we're going to be able to file. So enthusiasm is certainly building internally. duncan, on the pove question, it was about reimbursement and how you're seeing that.
Yes. So ALY, first.
Yes.
Thanks for the question, Geoff. So as far as the interest in sweat chloride is concerned, in general terms from a physician level, the level of sort of understanding and interest in the connection between sweat chloride and CFTR function is by and large similar in the U.S. to Europe. And there are no major differences in that regard.
In terms of your question about willingness to switch, as you know, there are some different dynamics with regard to the labeling between the U.S. and Europe, meaning that there are fewer liver function and liver monitoring requirements in Europe. So that has and impacts on the dynamic. The other comment I would make as well is we've always see more rapid uptake in naive patients. And as per the prepared remarks, there are, for example, 1,500 naive patients in Italy that have just been reimbursed for CFTR modulator for the first time ever. So we would anticipate rapid uptake in that particular patient population.
On the first part, actually, of your question, povetacicept and our engagements with payers and the payer community, I would make just a couple of comments. Firstly, we started engaging with the payers in July last year. We've, at this point, had 74 engagements with multiple payers that cover over 210 million lives. And I would say those conversations are going extremely well. They are very well educated on IGAN, and they are very interested in the products that are coming to the market. So we feel really good about where -- with our engagements with payers so far and where those will go in the future.
Your next question will come from Tazeen Ahmad with Bank of America.
With relation to pove, can we talk about what you're expecting to show on protenuria, like what results do you think would provide in your mind, medically, clinically differentiated data versus competitors?
Sure. magnitude of proteinuria response. I think we've talked about this before. But in every study that we've done, the depths that proteinuria response the greater the depth, the better it is in terms of long-term outcomes, long-term outcomes being defined as death, dialysis or time to transplantation. In this particular interim analysis, I would point you to the RUBY-3 80-milligram IgAN results. I think it's the best analog to look at to sort of get a sense for what we could see from the RAINIER trial.
I say that because it's very similarly designed in the inclusion and exclusion criteria the proteinuria threshold, the GFR thresholds for entry is the same exact dose, 80 milligrams and the endpoint is exactly the same. And in RUBY-3, the 36-week proteinuria data was a 56% reduction in proteinuria. I think it's important to also note that the proteinuria reduction is something that I believe we'll have -- I think you could think of it as compounding effect over time.
Even a little bit more improvement in proteinuria, better proteinuria reduction is going to be important because these patients are going to be on the medicines for their whole life. It takes something like 20 years for a person to develop end-stage renal disease from when they start having their GFR drop where proteinuria starts to become heavy. So over that course of time, improvements in proteinuria could really be very important. So if we see something like we saw in RUBY-3 Phase II, that would be incredibly important, very meaningful from a clinical perspective.
Your next question will come from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital Markets.
I'd love for you to expand on the rationale to study pove in [ GMG ] and just seems to be a more crowded a rare disease. I'd love if you can just touch on what differentiates this asset, what you saw potentially kind of in earlier studies and how you think it would compare to both assets that have been approved and are under investigation for the indication.
Yes. Sure thing, Evan, I'll repeat a couple of things I said in my prepared remarks. It's a sizable population, right nearing 200,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe. It is clearly like one of the best examples of B-cell-mediated disease. That is how this disease happens. It's autoantibodies, largely against the choline receptor. .
And the available treatments have some real limitations. One of the big limitations is for some of the treatments, you have to cycle on and cycle off. During the time where you cycle off the treatment, where you're not taking the treatment, obviously, if you're not on the medicine, what happens is the other antibodies come back and that can lead to the disease returning. Now what I'm about to tell you next is cross-sell comparison, so you have to take it with a grain of salt, but there has been a study in China, China-based study using a wild-type [ tachy ]. And using a wild-type tachy, if you do a side-by-side comparison of what's called the myasthenia gravis ADL score, that's the end point. It is remarkable what the wild-type [indiscernible] , this is a wild-type tachy was able to accomplish. Again, these are cross-study comparisons, so take it with the gain of salt. But what that wild type tachy tells me is that by mechanism of action, it is something to really hold close. So then you translate that to pove, pove is not a wild-type tachy. Tachy is the engineered fusion protein, better potency, better binding affinity, better pharmacokinetics, better tissue distribution.
So I look at the wild-type [ taki ], and then I think about what Poly could bring to the table, and that's the reason I'm so excited about this. I think this is going to be a really important indication for pove. First things first, we got to get through Phase II. That study should be up and running shortly. That is a dose-ranging study. So we're going to study [indiscernible] and then we can take it from there and go to pivotal development. But it is one of the ones that I'm excited about.
Next question will come from Michael Yee with UBS.
Two questions. First on pove. Can you remind us how to think about what rates of ADA are possible, either absolute rates or neutralizing rates? And do you expect that to be of any material number given it's a chronic drug that could be something to think about. And then I don't think anyone's asked on AMKD, but obviously, you have a very potent drug there, and that data could be in about a year or so. And just wanted to think about how you expect those results to play out and given you have a more heterogeneous population rather than just FSGS, do you expect essentially the same results from the Phase II?
Yes, mike, let me take the AMKD results. First of all, I'll come back to pove and ADA. SO in AMKD, When I was listening to Duncan talk about AMKD, ADPKD, pove in IGan, pove in membraneous it really is a substantial renal franchise that's emerging. I do expect that the bottom line, I do expect that our results from the AMKD Phase II AMPLITUDE study will be very similar to what we saw in the Phase II AMKD study.
Recall, though, Mike, that the readout, the primary endpoint for the Phase III study is GFR slope. Of course, we're going to measure proteinuria, but you'll recall that the FDA pathway to accelerated approval for AMKD is based on 48-week GFR. So there's that difference. And if you ask me, well, why do you fix that? Even though the group that we studied in Phase II was something we called FSGS, which is a histologic diagnosis is what you see on biopsy. And the group that we studied in Phase III is AMKD alleles. They are the same disease. It's just whether or not the patient with 2 APRIL 1 alleles depressed renal function and proteinuria, fetched to get a biopsy or not sent to get a biopsy.
If you don't go to get a biopsy, you will never be able to see FSGS because that's simply a histological diagnosis. So net-net, I expect the results to be in line with Phase 2. And I will reaffirm the time lines for data sharing tail end of this year, beginning of next. On pove and ADA and NAV, just to set the stage, and I know you know that in biologics, ADAs, antidrug antibodies are to be expected. It doesn't have a consequence on efficacy. So you would know that by neutralizing antibodies, you would see it on the end point of interest, in this case, prior it is not something to be concerned about.
And of course, on the other side, it could be a antibody that causes safety but based on how this particular drug works, I don't have concerns in that domain. So it's really about a specific subset of antidrug antibodies, neutralizing antibodies that have an impact on outcomes. Based on everything that we saw in RUBY-II that we shared with you in [ ASCEND ] in November, I don't expect that to be something of consequence that is
The next question will come from Eliana Merle with Barclays.
It's Ellie. Just on JOURNAVX, how do you see the mix between retail and the hospital setting evolving over the course of the year? And how should we think about how that mix could impact gross to net as well as treatment duration
Duncan, do you want to take that one?
Yes, sure.
So as far as the mix is concerned, I would say that we did see it evolve over the course of 2025. We Concluded the year at around about 50-50 between retail prescriptions and hospital prescriptions. And I would say that in the future, we anticipate that, that will move more towards the retail space proportionately compared to where it is right now. In terms of the impact on gross to net, there are a number of dynamics to that.
Obviously, the length of the prescription in hospital is usually shorter than the duration of the prescription in retail. But it also depends on the type of patient, for example, whether they're a commercial patient, whether they're a Medicare patient or a Medicaid patient. And indeed, whether they are going through our patient support program or whether they are a self-pay patients. So there are a number of dynamics in terms of how the sort of prescription balance affects gross to net.
Your next question will come from William Pickering with Bernstein.
I was wondering, this is a pove one. If you could discuss how you expect the baseline GFR to impact the observed effect size. I think your Phase II patients had an average GFR about 10 [indiscernible] higher than the competitor Phase II or Phase III trials. And so if we were to see a Phase III baseline for pove that's more similar to those competitor trials, just wondering directionally which way if at all, that would influence effect size.
will, I think you're asking about what the impact of baseline GFR could be on proteinuria. Did I understand that correctly?
Yes, that's right.
Okay. In general, when you're in the range of proteinuria, where we're studying, so you have to be somewhere between 30 and I think the entry criteria is like 30 to 90 or something like that. When you're not at the very tail end close to dialysis, so what we would call a burned-out kidney. In the range that we're studying, it shouldn't have any great impact on proteinuria. When you have a burned out kidney proteinuria could seemingly decrease because you don't have any renal function left. But in the range that we're talking about, it should be fine. It there's no real big impact there. I hope that helps.
Your next question will come from Brian Abrahams with RBC Capital Markets.
Another 1 on pove, Just recognizing there's similar inclusion/exclusion criteria between RUBY-3 and RAINIER, I was just wondering if there were any differences such as proportion of patients from China or the degree of patients on SGLT2 inhibitors that might impact proteinuria response to povetacicept. And then also, is there any reason as we sort of think about a proxy for the potential magnitude of what we might see not to include the blend of UPCR reductions from both the 80 and 240 mg doses for RUBY-3, I guess, get to a higher end? I'm just wondering if there's any reason 240 might have conferred lesser activity mechanistically.
On the differences between Phase II RUBY-3 and the Phase III RAINIER, I think the most important 1 is that the Phase II study was not placebo controlled. The Phase III study, obviously, is placebo controlled. In all the other dimensions, inclusion, exclusion criteria, the dose of the study, the endpoint -- they're either exactly the same but very, very similar. The difference is the placebo are -- so you do have to think about that. And at the ASN event, there was a question to one of the thought leaders who've worked in this space for a long time about, well, what do you think the placebo protein response could be over this period.
And they said between 0% and 5%, I think that's about right. So I think that's the big one. I don't have baseline characteristics, Brian, to share with you from the RAINIER study. Obviously, we'll have that for you when we share the results. I think there was another question about 80 and 240, we did not study 240 any further after RUBY-2 and all of the 240 data that we had, we shared with you at the ASN, it did look on average about the same as 80 milligrams. .
Next question will come from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Maybe 2 for me. First one, unsurprisingly on pove. I was wondering, Reshma, if you can comment at all about the blinded serious infection data you're seeing from the RAINIER study at this point. And then the second one was on the WuXi deal. I know you mentioned you're developing this TC for B cell-mediated autoimmune conditions. Just wondering how you think about differentiation there on the portfolio in terms of where you might carve out those indications relative to pove.
Yes, on the data for RAINIER, as you may know, there's an independent data safety monitoring committee that monitors that study. And maybe the most helpful thing I can share is that they review the data in an ongoing fashion. And of course, they review blinded and unblinded data. They review everything because they are the DSMB. They have not asked us to change anything in the study. And they've given the study clean build or health as it goes through. Maybe that's the most helpful thing I can say to you with regard to what the ongoing data is. With regard to WuXi and indications, we specifically didn't share.
So I'm going to keep that information under wraps for a little bit longer. I will say that the idea of having a medicine like pove pipeline in a product for multiple B-cell-mediated diseases is exciting and our interest in serial innovation stands. And you put those 2 together, it's probably unsurprising to you that we're interested in these kind of trispecific engagers because they would work for a variety of diseases, not just the ones that we talked about IgAN, membranes, myasthenia, but other B-cell mediated diseases that we're interested in. But I'll keep the specifics under wraps for a little longer.
Your next question will come from Debjit Chattopadhyay with Guggenheim.
This is Moritz on for Debjit. I have 2 about pove. First, looking at the RUBY-3 UPTR data, pove had a much larger standard error than [ ataciceptor befellimab ] did in their comparable studies. Any comment on what may have caused this variability. And second, [indiscernible] Phase III studies showed very different placebo rates in their UPCR interim analysis. What's your assumption for the placebo rate and RAINIER interim?
Yes. I don't have much more to add about the placebo rate other than what I said when this question was asked at ASN, the physician who had been involved in the number of trials is a real IGAN expert offer that his idea was 0% to 5% for placebo. I think that's probably about right. And that sounds right to me. So I would keep that. On the idea of standard error, I have not looked at I have not looked at their data. I don't know that I have anything particularly helpful to say, as you know, the standard error is impacted by sample size.
So I don't know exactly which data sets you're looking at, but that's 1 thing I would look at and also matters what lab tests you use, whether you're using 24 hour urine or you're using spot urine. so I could offer multiple explanations, but unfortunately, I haven't looked at the data you're looking at. But if you send it to us, I'm happy to look after the call.
And just to be specific, the 0% to 5% is that increase or decrease given that the competitor Phase III studies, one of them showed a placebo increase and the other showed a decrease in UPCR.
I was thinking about a proteinuria, the placebo group potentially having proteinuria improvement somewhere between 0% to 5%. Obviously, if the proteinuria in the placebo group, if there was more proteinuria, it would be incrementally beneficial to pove because it is a comparison versus placebo. But of course, the placebos equal opportunity could go up or down.
We'll take 1 more question.
And the next question will come from Phil Nadeau with TD Cowen.
We wanted to ask about the $500 million guidance for products outside of CF. First, could you give us some sense of the breakdown between CASGEVY and JOURNAVX in that number? And then second, that is a big increase, a threefold increase over 2025 and an approximate doubling versus the Q4 run rate. What gives you confidence in that level of growth? Is it CASGEVY infusions. CASGEVY, so far that are happening, visibility from payers on JOURNAVX. Can you give us some sense of what you're seeing to put that number out there?
I'll ask you to take that one.
Sure, yes. So the guidance includes a contribution of from non-CF products of $500 million or more. We do feel very confident about that number and have great line of sight to the year for some of the reasons that you touched on. I won't break it down further in terms of CASGEVY or JOURNAVX, but you will see the CASGEVY in JOURNAVX results in our quarterly reporting after it's occurred. So you'll have a sense of where the contribution is coming from. .
With CASGEVY, we had a strong year with over -- with 300-or-so patients initiating 150 or so having first cell collections given the length of the patient journey that gives us great visibility into the year. So we're very confident that CASGEVY will ramp up nicely compared to 2025. And then similarly, you've seen our previous commentary about JOURNAVX prescriptions tripling in 2026 compared to 2025 with greater access in '26 versus '25. The revenue conversion on those prescriptions will be greater as well. So feeling confident about both. We have a nice trajectory heading into 2026 versus 2025 and look forward to reporting on the results each quarter as we go forward. .
Thanks, Geoff. If you could wrap it for us, please.
Yes, ma'am. This concludes our question-and-answer session as well as the conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. A replay of today's event will be available shortly after the call concludes by dialing 1-877-344-7529 or 1 (412) 317-0088 using replay access code 10206104. Thank you for participating today. You may now disconnect.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Welcome, everyone. My name is Jess Fye, biotech analyst at JPMorgan, and we're delighted to be continuing the 44th Annual JPMorgan Healthcare Conference today with Vertex.
You're going to hear a presentation from the management team and then we're going to go into some Q&A. So if you're in the room here, just raise your hands, someone will bring you a microphone or if you're listening at home, you can submit a question for the portal, and I can read it up here on stage.
So with that, let me pass it over to Vertex' CEO, Reshma Kewalramani.
Thanks, Jess, and thank you to JPMorgan for hosting us. We're at a slightly different time and a slightly different venue for those of you who come every year and it's very good to see you all. In the event, I'm not the first to wish you a happy New Year. Let me be amongst the first on behalf of the entire Vertex team, we're really happy to be here, and we look forward to kicking off the year with all of you as always.
Before getting into the presentation, let me put up our safe harbor statement that you may or may not be able to read I will be making forward-looking comments, and I encourage you to read our SEC disclosures, which contain more information. I'll leave it up for a minute and then we'll get right into it.
Okay. We have a unique corporate strategy and business model at Vertex. And it's depicted on the flywheel to the left. You've seen this before. I think I've shared it every year that I've been at the conference. We invest in scientific innovation to make transformative, if not curative medicines. And we do so for serious diseases in specialty markets, which means a very particular thing for us. it means markets in which there's low SG&A spend. This enables strong operating margins and profitability, allowing us to invest significantly back into R&D and therefore, executing on our serial innovation strategy and creating a virtuous cycle.
The key pillars of our differentiated modality agnostic disease first R&D strategy, are the foundation of Vertex. We only go after diseases with high unmet need. We only go after diseases where we understand causal human biology diseases where we have validated targets, usually genetic but pharmacologic as well.
Diseases where we have biomarkers that translate from the bench to the clinic and we only work on diseases with efficient regulatory and development pathways. This approach we put into play about 10 years ago, and we designed this approach to deliver disproportionate R&D success, and it has delivered.
We are now at a point where we have 7 marketed medicines in CF across 4 disease areas including 5 approved medicines in CF, CASGEVY for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia and JOURNAVX for moderate-to-severe acute pain.
It has also set us up for a very exciting emerging renal franchise. That renal franchise has 4 programs in mid- and late-stage development. Povetasecept in IgAN, I know is front and center in many people's minds, but it also has a axipline in AMKD. Both of these programs are well into clinical development. Both of these programs have breakthrough designation from the FDA. And both of these programs have the opportunity for accelerated approval in the U.S.
I'm going to move to Slide 4 and ask someone if they can help me with the door in the back. Thank you. On this slide, you see that commercialization is a key focus for us in 2026. And the 4 priorities on this page depict and highlight the opportunities right in front of us. In CF, we aim to continue our leadership position and to sustain it for decades to come, noting that IP protection for TRIKAFTA goes into 2037 and beyond that for a lift truck.
For CASGEVY, we look to capitalize on the foundation we built and the momentum in finishing 2025, with more than $100 million in revenue. We believe CASGEVY is well positioned to continue on its path to become a blockbuster medicine. We're also looking forward to growing dynamics from its strong first year with a goal to more than triple the prescriptions in 2026 compared to 2025, and we are preparing for the potential launch of POV in IgAN in the U.S. POV holds the potential for best-in-class and it is poised to be the first launch in our emerging renal franchise.
I'm going to move on now to Slide 6 and show you a little bit about the numbers of patients and the geographies we hope to serve. The pipeline is diversifying there's more than 10 disease areas in the clinic now. And while we do that, we're also diversifying our revenue base and our geographic presence. As you can see on this slide, we expect to expand the number of patients we serve from about 160,000 or so in CF in sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. -- plus the about 180 -- I'm sorry, about the 80 million patients who seek prescription for JOURNAVX. Two, something more than 10 million patients over the coming years as we bring forward medicines for IgAN, for AMKD for diabetic peripheral neuropathy, type 1 diabetes and more.
Given the time I have with you today, I'm going to limit my forward-going comments to CF and CASGEVY, JOURNAVX and the emerging renal franchise. And I'm going to start with cystic fibrosis and Slide 6. We are continuing to execute 4 market leadership, and I'll call out 4 points on this slide. We have been in CF for a long time. we have many approved medicines. And in that portfolio of CFTR modulators, we have something very precious. And that is long-term, real-world safety and efficacy and over 200,000 patient years of exposure.
Second, our serial innovation has led to 5 approved medicines, each of which has brought more benefit for patients and/or expanded the patient population. And as we have done this today, 95% of patients could be eligible for one of our CFTR modulators. And it's not just about the number of patients, it's also the age group. We have medicines, namely KALYDECO, that can treat babies down to 1 month of age.
Third, the Vertex Guidance and Patient Support Services, or GPS, is a highly valued differentiating feature that we offer our CF patients. Since 2012, when KALYDECO was first approved 85% plus of RCF patients have chosen to be enrolled in our program and have stayed with the program over these many years. And finally, our ability to get reimbursement and access is a key strategic advantage. It has resulted in rapid, broad and durable coverage for our patients in more than 60 countries.
Let me move to Slide 7 and talk a little bit more about the growth drivers in CF. Growth is going to come from the ongoing launch of a lift truck which started in about January of '25 in the U.S. And in the summer, we got regulatory approval and over the past couple of months have secured reimbursements. And so now the global launch of a lift truck continues. Treating younger patients, continued expansion into new geographies and serial innovation. Maybe the most important thing to take away is that underpinning this is the significant increase in survival of our CF patients. It is incredible to note that for a child born today, if they start CFTR modulators when they're young, model data suggests that their life expectancy is well into their 80s.
Let me turn now to CASGEVY. CASGEVY is a onetime treatment that holds the promise for a potential functional cure for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia. Having established the network of ATCs or authorized treatment centers, defining the referral pathways and securing reimbursement, the momentum of CASGEVY is really going strong.
The results of our 5- to 11-year-old patients are in. We shared it at ASH in December of last year, and they are excellent. Indeed, CASGEVY data for the last 4 years has received best in ash recognition. And we're planning file for these 5 to 11-year-olds this year.
Recall that we had previously received the Commissioner's national voucher the national priority voucher. And this means that the cycle time for review is expected to be reasonably short. As we look forward for what's on the horizon for CASGEVY, we see growth in all 3 regions: the U.S., Europe and the Middle East. And we expect gains in patient initiations first cell collections and infusions as we drive CASGEVY towards realizing its multibillion dollar potential. I'm going to now move on to pain.
And in pain, what I want to talk about is really dynamics in the acute pain setting. In moderate-to-severe acute pain genetics launched in January was approved in January of last year, and it was in channel in about March of last year. It is one outstanding feedback from patients and physicians alike. Given its efficacy, the safety profile and the lack of addictive potential.
In the first year of commercialization, our teams delivered access, which was the key point for 2025, access in hospital and access in the retail setting, and they drove broad adoption in physicians across settings of care as well as pain types, surgical and nonsurgical. I'm really pleased to share that we have now contracted with all 3 of the large national PBMs.
The third one going into effect January 1 of this year. As these plans come online, about 2/3 of adult Americans will have access to JOURNAVX. In addition to that, 900 hospitals have dynamics either on their formularies as part of their order sets or as part of their discharge protocols. And more than 30,000 prescribers have already written a script for dynamics. In total, through the end of '25, this has resulted in more than 0.5 million scripts for JOURNAVX and quarter-on-quarter, Q4 versus Q3, we've seen a 50% growth.
In line with our launch strategy, when you think about where those scripts are coming from, about half are coming from the hospital setting and about half are coming from discharge or in retail. And it's incredibly, incredibly rewarding to note that we estimate over 400,000 Americans have already benefit from JOURNAVX.
Going into '26. What we are looking for is building on this foundation, building on the health systems as well as the hospital use, the breadth of physician use. And we think it is time to double down and we are moving from about 150 reps to about 300 reps in the coming months. Consistent with that movement and additional investments that we are making in Generics, this is why we see moving from the 500,000 scripts or so in '25 to 3x that number in '26.
One very important point to make on JOURNAVX is that we are building a strong, durable and long-term franchise in pain, and we seek a leadership position here just like we did in CF. And for that, while we will decrease and eventually sunset towards the end of this year, beginning of next, our patient support program, or PSP. We will continue to offer the PSP to those patients who are not yet covered by insurance because we believe the most important factors for long-term success are threefold: one, transform the standard of care and the management of acute pain from opioids to away from opioids.
Second, to ensure that patients have a positive JOURNAVX journey as do the physicians. And lastly, that, that positive experience is accompanied by a smooth experience in terms of access and reimbursement.
I'm going to finish on pain with this next slide. This is a slide that looks at the overall pipeline. And as I said, what we're looking to do here is to gain a leadership position in acute pain, and you see the various molecules and stages of development for those molecules here. A few things on this slide. One is that we've just recently completed a set of single-arm dynamic studies in some real-world common conditions.
In one study, we looked at dynamic initiated preoperatively as part of multimodal care. And these were reconstructive and aesthetic procedures. The result, 91% of patients on JOURNAVX didn't require any opioid rescue.
The other one is a study in certain orthopedic procedures. Arthroscopic knees, for example, or laparoscopic abdominal surgeries done by OB/GYNs or general surgeries -- JOURNAVX was studied again as part of multimodal therapy. And here, about 76% of patients did not require opioid rescue. We're doing more trials, more real-world evidence, more outcomes in research, and I look forward to sharing those results with you as they become available.
And lastly, on this slide, we have 2 studies in Phase III ongoing in diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Both studies are up and running. They're enrolling and dosing patients. We expect that both studies will complete enrollment by the tail end of this year which sets us up for results in 2027.
With that on pain, I'm going to now turn my attention to renal. In renal, we seek replicate what we've done in CF. And it all starts with the medicine, the Phase III data and where are we today. IgAN, which is the first indication in our emerging renal franchise is a disease that affects about 300,000 people in the U.S. and Europe. And worldwide, it's about 1.5 million patients.
We believe Kobi is best-in-class potential, and there are 3 reasons for that. First, it's important to understand that the molecule [ polvetasecept ] itself was specifically engineered as a dual BAF April inhibitor with improved binding affinity, potency, PK and tissue distribution. I'm going to come back to that because it is important relevance when it comes to dosing.
Second, the clinical data to date show a leading benefit risk profile when considering GDIgA levels, that is the PD pharmacodynamic biomarker and is the bad actor in IgA nephropathy. And the results through Phase II on GDIgA are really good. Next, thinking about proteinuria and hematuria. Proteinuria is obviously the primary endpoint of the Phase III trial and upon which accelerated approval could be granted.
When you put that all together and think about the safety profile, this is best-in-class through Phase II. In terms of the last column here, that's the dosing feature, it just simply cannot be underestimated when you're thinking about a chronic biologics market.
Simply put, if a patient doesn't take their medicine, they surely can't benefit from it. Poly has unique benefits in this regard. It is a monthly administration. It is small volume, 0.46 mills via an auto injector for at-home use. And when you put that all together, that's why we think Kobi has best-in-class potential.
As we think about where we are and where we're going, I'm very pleased to share that the Kobi submission, which you will remember is under breakthrough designation, and we also received rolling submission. We have started that and the first module is in, it went in at the tail end of last year. We're on track to commit to filing this and finishing the potential for accelerated approval in the first half of this year.
And what we're looking to do commercially, as I said before, is replicate our approach and its success in CF in renal medicine.
What this means is bringing the weight of our R&D expertise, our science focus and our patient first stance to nephrology, to bring our reimbursement prowess as well as to bring our comprehensive patient support program that I talked about earlier to the IgAN launch. And we're investing in renal for the long term. to improve the lives of patients with kidney disease to go after the underlying cause of disease to bring transformative medicines. It's not just about POV and IgAN. It's about point membranes. It's about a naxiplin in AMD and something called VX-407 for ADPKD, autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.
And on Slide 13 here, you can see the full renal portfolio, this is all of our assets that are in the clinic in patients. I'll take a minute to just talk about the middle part here, which is AP1 mediated kidney disease. This is the other program in our portfolio that has breakthrough designation and also the potential for accelerated approval in the U.S.
A couple of things to mention. This is a disease that affects about 150,000 patients or so. We have completed enrollment in the IA or the interim analysis cohort. We expect results from that cohort towards the tail end of this year, beginning of next year. and if supportive, we look to filing this for accelerated approval in the U.S. thereafter. Clearly, a lot going on in the renal franchise, and we are obviously very excited about this I happen to be a nephrologist that adds a special dimension for the renal franchise for me.
Let me move on now to zooming out from the renal franchise to looking at the Vertex portfolio as a whole. What you can see here is a broad, deep and rapidly advancing R&D pipeline. And as we look ahead with Ali in CF, CASGEVY in sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, dynamics in moderate-to-severe acute pain already launched several potential filings coming up. We are very well positioned to deliver on our goal that we set here at this conference in 2023. That is to say 5 launches in 5 disease areas over a 5-year period.
Let me turn now and as we get to the last couple of slides, spend a moment on our financials. Vertex has grown significantly in recent years. Our 2025 total revenue guidance as of the Q3 call was $11.9 billion to $12 billion. We are well poised for future attractive revenue growth, including CF and also, we expect increasingly significant contributions to growth from our disease areas outside of CF.
To drive these gains, we are investing in sales and marketing capabilities consistent with our specialty model. And with these investments, we nonetheless continue to target 2/3 of our OpEx to innovation, while also maintaining highly attractive operating margins. As a result of this growth and profitability, our balance sheet remains very healthy and provides significant flexibility to continue to invest in innovation and drive the virtuous cycle I talked about at the top of my remarks.
I'm going to end with this last slide. It's one that we show every year. You can think about it as a bit of a report card and you can use this to mark our forward progress. In CF, we're looking to extend our leadership. We're also very focused on commercial execution with our newer products, CASGEVY in sickle cell and beta-thal, JOURNAVX and acute pain. And we're also looking forward to prepare for the launches of a whole host of new medicines starting with POV in IgAN.
Third, we're looking to continue the rapid progress of our broad and deep R&D pipeline. And last we seek to continue to deliver top-tier financial performance. Vertex is extremely well poised to deliver value for patients and for shareholders for many years to come and we are excited to do so.
With that, I'm going to thank you again. I'll turn it over to Jess, and then I'll invite the management team to join me on stage. Jessica, I'll stay here to preserve chair bandwidth.
Great. So as a reminder, if you have a question in the room, just raise your hand and somebody will run over with a mic, but I'll go first.
So maybe just starting with the cystic fibrosis business. Can you elaborate on kind of the key drivers of growth for that franchise in 2026? And what's the right way for investors to think about the pace of patients switching from TRIKAFTA to a lift truck, both kind of U.S. and ex U.S.
Sure thing. Duncan, would you like to take that one?
Yes, sure. Good afternoon, everyone. So the drivers of growth for CF in 2026. As Reshma alluded to are predominantly the continued launches of TRIKAFTA and lift trek for the various mutations and age ranges for which they're indicated. Obviously, our primary focus is the lift trek launch, but there are certain indications, so the 2 to 5 population where we're still launching TRIKAFTA -- Catreos is called outside the U.S. So TRIKAFTA and lift trek growth are key drivers.
The second key driver is geographic expansion. So we're seeing meaningful growth in like Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Turkey, some of those countries are countries where we previously had only named patient sales, and we've now moved to a sort of full reimbursement model.
And then the third dimension is the sort of underlying survival and diagnosis growth that we see in the market in general terms year-on-year. In terms of the dimensions of transitions from TRIKAFTA to lift trek. As Reshma alluded to, obviously, we are further ahead with the launch of a lift trek in the U.S. We've just started really in some countries in Europe in the middle of last -- latter part of last year. So this places like Germany, Norway, Denmark, England, Northern Ireland, Southern Ireland, et cetera.
And we continue to see strong growth of lift trek in the U.S. All of the naive patients are on lift trek the physicians are now working through the discontinued and the transition patients. And here in the U.S., the vast majority of patients on the lift trek half come from TRIKAFTA Outside the U.S., we're seeing a more rapid uptake in the transition patients essentially driven by the fact that as you probably know, the labels are a little bit different between the U.S. and the European markets which means that the liver monitoring requirements are slightly less ex U.S., enabling a more swift uptake there. So we're very pleased with the initial signals of launch outside the U.S.
What is your latest thinking on the global CF penetration?
Yes. So the numbers are so we -- I think we updated our epidemiology numbers at this meeting. So it's 112,000 patients worldwide. 97,000 of those are in what we call our core markets. And so I think the U.S., Europe, et cetera, 15,000 which is the same numbers at JPMorgan last year and the sort of expansion markets, I think, Turkey, Brazil, et cetera. At the moment, we're at about 78,000 patients.
Now to be fair, you have to take 5,000 patients off the total of that 112 because there are those patients who will only be responsive to the mRNA program, not the CFTR modulator program. So our penetration is in the region of 73%, 74% or so. So I would say we've done incredibly well, but there is still more opportunity to grow the business over the coming years.
And I guess maybe thinking about that other 5,000, what is the next update for VX-522? When could we expect that?
Yes. David, do you want to take that one?
Sure. 522...
Sorry, this is 522. This is the mRNA program that we started in concert with Moderna. It's an LNP with an mRNA. And this is for the absolute number of about 5,000 or so patients who simply don't make an CFTR protein, and therefore, we need a nuclear asset approach. That program is already in patients. We have finished our single ascending dose or SAD study. We're in the middle of the mad right now. and we expect to have results to share this year. So I do expect that we'll be able to share results in patients, so safety and efficacy this year.
And I guess in the case of success, what's the next development steps?
Yes. So this is a -- what I would consider a Phase I/II study. This is a dose-ranging study. And if successful, we'll be going to the regulators to move this into pivotal development. This is a very, very small patient group. It's 5,000 patients. And so we've had discussions with the regulators. We want to make sure that this is efficient and that these medicines -- this medicine particular can come through as fast as possible. But first things first, results from the Phase I/II study later this year.
Maybe switching to PV4 IgAN with the Phase III coming up. You talked about some of the product characteristics. But how is that going to shine through in the clinical data? What would you point people to look towards to kind of highlight the product differentiation.
Yes, yes. So as you prepare and we prepare for the interim analysis Phase III results, as with all data sets it's the totality of benefit risk that you're going to see in the data set that's important. But let me point you to the specific elements that you should be looking for.
In efficacy, I find GDIG to be very important because, as I said, that's the bad actors. So looking for strong reductions in GDIG is really important.
Second, it is the primary endpoint and proteinuria death of proteinuria response is really important in Phase II, the results that we showed at ASN, the results at 36 weeks, which is what the interim analysis potential approval will be based on. So the 36-week proteinuria data was about a 50% reduction. The 48-week reduction was about 64%. But remember, for the Phase III, it's based on 36-week reduction.
And lastly, it's really important to look at hematuria. It is not normal to have protein in the urine. It is not normal to have RBCs red blood cells in the urine. And so we're going to be looking at that as well. So those are the efficacy measures to pay attention to. On the safety side, it is the overall profile, and I am expecting to recapitulate what we saw in Phase II and Phase III, that is to say, a very attractive safety profile.
How do you think about the probability of success for Pope in these additional indications, like primary membranous nephropathy, GMG, warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia. You're going into a lot of areas and just curious...
Yes. So there are so many wonderful things about POV, but one of them is that it really is a pipeline in a product. For B-cell mediated diseases, IgAN is just one example of a very well understood, well-characterized B-cell-mediated disease. There are others. Membranous nephropathy, just happens to be another kidney disease. It's exceedingly well understood. It is a B-cell mediated disease. And that's why we're so excited about it.
Our Phase II data, which was also shown at ASN look really excellent. I'm not surprised. There are other very B-cell mediated diseases like myasthenia gravis, not in the renal space, but it is a disease of B cells that make autoantibodies against the neuromuscular junction, 2 things like acetal choline. I have high expectations for POV there as well. So as we start to turn over these cards, IgAN first, I think then it will be membranous and I think it will then be myasthenia the confidence level should continue to rise because safety is common across these, it's the same drug. And I think your ability to think through how good of a B-cell modulator is it increases in your confidence level as you get through all of these indications.
I am very, very bullish on POV and these B-cell mediated diseases because of the ability to look at safety in a very cross disease manner and to build on what you've done before.
Thank you for the great presentation. So coming back to CASGEVY, you mentioned about 40% are transitioning from the cell collection to infusion knowing that timely delivery of these products is a huge hurdle in the commercial success. What strategy do you have in place for CMC to make sure that you're reaching these goals but also reaching the patients in time?
Yes. The longest part of the journey is actually the beginning when you have to be referred from your hematologist to a transplant center, be prepared for the potential transplant. And then there is a segment in there that is about CMC and manufacturing. I'm really happy with where we are in that part of the program. It's not overnight. It's not ever going to be overnight.
But in terms of consistency, good time lines and high quality, I'm very happy with where that is. The big movement I see in the next phase of what we can do to both broaden the population and perhaps narrow the time line is moved from busulfan based conditioning, which is a heavy part of the journey to a gentler conditioning regimen. We're working on that. Our partners at CRISPR are working on that and others in academia and other companies are as well. And so I have high hopes that, that will happen. Duncan, do you have anything you want to say or Charlie...
Yes. Yes, if I could just add some context, I'm not sure where the 40% figure comes from, but I have an idea. We did let folks know that over 300 patients have initiated the journey for CASGEVY in 2025, about 150 have had first cell collections and 60-plus have been infused. So maybe it's the 60 to 150 ratio. That's not a conversion ratio. That's just the number of people who've moved from cell collection all the way through infusion.
The good news about that is that we have a very good line of sight into how many infusions we expect in 2026. And so as we give revenue guidance in February at our earnings call, that's going to be very high certainty because the -- for lack of a better term, the patient funnel is full and moving forward.
Thank you very much. Reshma, you mentioned biomarkers. And the question is, what is your vision and appetite for expanding the use of biomarkers to leverage that to both accelerate clinical trials, FDA approvals and drive clinical adoption. And biomarkers also kind of more high-precision diagnostic data. Can you share a little bit about how you can leverage that?
Yes. But biomarkers have been a core part of our strategy as long as the strategy has existed. David, I'll ask you to make a couple of comments on biomarkers.
Yes. No, I agree. I mean, I think it's been a key part of our strategy. whether it's sweat chloride, obviously, with CF, whether it's hemoglobin F with sickle cell disease or whether as ratio was talking about for example, in IgA nephropathy, there's GDIA, which is a key biomarker. Just as a marker, it's actually a causal factor. And I think the key to us is actually that our strategy is we only work on programs where we see such biomarkers, it's hard to invent them midstream. So in other words, if you have a program where it doesn't exist and you say, should we use new technology to do it. certainly a fine concept. But I think for us, it's more pickup program that is already validated by biomarker and it's going to be a lot easier to get, for example, interim analysis with UPCR and some other secondary endpoints rather than using really cool technology, but then you have to validate it, it's harder to get an initial approval.
Neil McClean, thanks for taking my question. Can you talk at all about the potential revenue projections that you may have for Poviandigan and any competitors that we should look out for?
Yes. Duncan, why don't you give us a few comments on what you see as the total market potential in HiSEPOVY?
Yes. Obviously, I'll just give you some quick guidance, kidding. So there are 160,000 patients in the U.S. who have IgAN. There's about 130,000 patients with IgAN in Europe. And then if you expand your aperture a little bit, there's at least another 1 million in Asia. So IgAN alone is an enormous disease. And as you may have noticed, here in the U.S. Otsuka just priced IgAN at $400,000. So 160,000 patients simplistically put here in the U.S. is over 5x bigger than the CF population. So that's just 1 disease. PMN then is also another 300,000 or so, 3 330,000 patients worldwide. So I think the opportunity for ovetasercept is clearly in the multibillion dollar space.
Thank you, Cathy Langham. Just, I guess, going up a level, you've got this amazing pipeline. I know the business is expanding tremendously hiring a great team. What is most exciting for you in '26?
This is a very hard question to answer when you have this kind of potential. But if we narrow down to '26. It is really about bringing our medicines that are approved to more patients. There is enormous opportunity for JOURNAVX, CASGEVY and RCF portfolio, and then it is indeed about POVY.
That ended perfectly. All right. Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Citi Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Welcome to the second day of the Citi Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Geoff Meacham. I'm the senior biopharma analyst. And we're thrilled today to have Vertex Pharmaceuticals. And on stage with me, we have Charlie Wagner, Chief Operation and Financial Officer; we have David Altshuler, who is EVP and CSO and maybe 6 months from retirement. Okay. So both legends. So guys, thanks for joining.
One legend. I'm aspiring.
You shouldn't say that about yourself, Charlie.
Let's talk first about JOURNAVX, maybe commercial and then move over to clinical. So maybe, Charlie, just give us a bit of a status update with the launch in acute pain, are you guys comfortable with the number of centers, states, institutions looking to next year? Are there -- is there more progress to be gained and we can get into some of the specifics.
Yes, sure thing. Yes, honestly, it's been a terrific year for this launch. It's a significant launch for us, and we feel really great about the progress that we've made so far. Coming into the year, we had 3 primary goals. One was ensuring broad access with payers, ensuring hospital and health care system access and then also having kind of a terrific first year seamless experience for physicians and patients. And I think we've made great progress on all of that.
We talked in the most recent earnings call about our progress with payers. We've got over 170 million covered lives now in the U.S. in just 9 or 10 months since the launch, making great progress there on our way towards our goal of, call it, 300 million covered lives or so. So great progress. We have formulary placement in a number of large hospitals and hospital systems, and that honestly has probably gone a little bit better and faster than expected.
In terms of the progress during the year, I think the ramp in the prescriptions has been quite remarkable. We communicated on the call that we now have over 300,000 prescriptions written for JOURNAVX, which means something like 0.25 million of Americans have had access to the medicine. And the feedback from physicians and payers has been terrific. We see that the medicine is being used in a wide variety of specialties from orthopedics and plastic surgery to anesthesiology and pain specialists and dentists. And universally, the feedback has been excellent. So really happy with the progress with payers, with hospitals and the patient and physician experience.
We do have work to do heading into next year. And we can talk about that in a bit. Maybe I'll let David comment on some of the other aspects. But feeling really good about the momentum and specifically in that prescription number, we mentioned we had about 10,000 in the first quarter, 70,000 in the second quarter and 190,000 in the third quarter. So really nice volume building heading into 2026.
And just a follow-up. When you look at the -- maybe the policy backdrop, is there anything with respect to a tipping point on Medicare, Medicaid access looking to next year on the NOPAIN Act, is that going to be impactful, do you think, in fiscal '26?
Yes. Listen, we have work to do, and you mentioned a few things there, so maybe I'll go back to the point I was going to make. On the commercial side, we've got 2 of the 3 large PBMs. We have 1 left to go, and we're making progress there. We're in active conversations. We've made great progress on the Medicaid side of things, have work to do on the Medicare side of things, and those discussions are ongoing right now heading into 2026 as well.
And then your last point around policy, the NOPAIN Act. The NOPAIN Act is for placement procedures in the Medicaid environment. So in terms of actual contribution to the business, it's relatively modest. It's like less than 5% of the patient population. But we had always said that we felt that, that would be a meaningful marker of government support for a program for kind of parity, if you will, for non-opioids. So we were disappointed not to be included on the first draft of the list. We think it's an oversight. We think it's a technicality, and we're going to continue to work to make sure that JOURNAVX gets the right placement. Again, not that it's essential from a launch standpoint, but we do think it's societally important to see that there is endorsement for alternatives to opioids.
Yes. Makes sense. David, let's turn to the clinical aspects of it. So maybe just give us some historical context for why looking at chronic pain has been more difficult, not just for you guys, but for -- to show clinical differentiation over and on top of standard of care. I know there are trial designs, there are trial executions and assumptions you have to make. But you guys did have differentiation on LSR and DPN previously, but you have to rise a level of significance. And so that's part of it, right?
Yes. I mean it's a great question. I think that the first thing I would say is our focus right now is on diabetic peripheral neuropathy. And the reason for that is because, first of all, it's a very concrete, well-defined path, both in terms of clinical and then patient use. And obviously, we have the positive data in Phase II. And so we have our first Phase III study is enrolling well. We started the second study just recently, and we're on track to enroll -- complete enrollment both in 2026. And it's worth noting there's 2 million people with DPN and it's in the U.S. And also, there's not a well-established high-quality treatment.
If you look at the treatment, there's a lot of rolling turnover because people aren't satisfied with the combination of efficacy, but also of tolerability. And so we see that as a great opportunity. You asked about more broadly chronic pain. There are multiple different kinds of chronic pain. And I think that's one thing that the field is going to have to evolve in terms of understanding, as you know, exactly which path to get to all of them. But we do believe in the long run that, say that's an important area, and we'll continue to move towards it.
Yes. And we had Marty Makary yesterday, and he was talking about novel indications, drugs that are like disruptive, innovative, et cetera. Is there an appreciation you think, at FDA for some of the subtleties between the different chronic pain kind of verticals, if you will?
Yes. I mean I would say all of our interactions with FDA have been a sign of great interest on their part. We've worked well with them. This question you raised of the different types of neuropathic pain, which obviously there's DPN, there's LSR, there's others and also other types of chronic pain is an area of evolution. We believe that the selective sodium channel inhibitors, NaV1.8, JOURNAVX and NaV1.7 we continue to work on do have broad applicability across all of this area. But obviously, since this is a new mechanism of action, we have to continue to work with the community, with the regulators to get to that endpoint.
And from a Vertex perspective, you guys have NaV1.7, but when you look at other mechanisms, NaV1.8 and others, I think Lilly is working on a few more. Are there -- are you comfortable with the range of mechanisms at Vertex? Or is there a need to maybe add other modalities across the...
Yes. We're very comfortable with where we are. I would say, in terms of, one, Nav1.8, we have the first selective NaV1.8 inhibitor, obviously, the first approval. And as with all things, we continue to work serial innovation on that. But NaV1.7 is really the only other target that has both the genetic validation in humans, both gain and loss of function that show the modulation, but also its biological effect and its role in pain signaling. And many, many people have worked on it for a long time and not been able to find a highly selective and effective molecule. And it turned out to be a bit harder than Nav1.8, which is why JOURNAVX is now approved, and we haven't -- we're still working on Nav1.7, but I do believe we've cracked the underlying challenge, which is to find a highly selective and effective molecule.
And so we're in preclinical development, and I do believe we'll be successful moving forward such molecules and that will have long-term implications for both the effectiveness and the breadth of our pain program.
Okay. And then the final question, when you look at DPN, maybe talk about the types of chronic pain. So DPN to me seems closer to an acute setting where the intensity of the pain versus an LSR or chronic back pain from the different types of chronic pain, you'd have long-term administration, they're not all created equal. And so they present different challenges in terms of clinical development.
Certainly. I think the one reason why DPN is our current focus is because it is very well defined, very well -- there's a great track record of even with medicines that didn't have the best efficacy and tolerability profile of being able to make it through the trials and get to patients, which is why we feel that the path is most clear there. And as I said, the first trial is ongoing. The second one will complete enrollment of both next year, and we think that, that's the most direct path. Obviously, it's even more pioneering in some other areas, and that will be for the future. But right now, with the 2 million people with DPN, we feel very confident that's a near-term focus.
Okay. That's helpful. Well, let's switch gears to [ maybe ] from a commercial perspective, when you look at the requirements for monitoring when you guys first launched in the first quarter of this year, how has that requirement informed kind of your -- the pace of new starts and development? Was that a surprise to you? And do you see that going forward as being less of a barrier with respect to switches from TRIKAFTA?
Yes. So with the label, the requirement is for 6 months of monthly testing, liver monitoring, essentially, which is a consideration for patients. I think the important context, list, ALYFTREK is off to a great start. I think, again, you saw on the most recent earnings call, we've reported revenues of nearly $0.5 billion in the first 9 months of the launch. So very happy with that altogether. I think there are a few benefits to ALYFTREK. One, it's the best medicine we've produced. It is terrific results on ppFEV1, strong results on sweat chloride, once-a-day dosing, great safety profile. So we're thrilled. That said, it follows TRIKAFTA, which also was a fantastic medicine. And there are a number of patients who are super well controlled and happy on TRIKAFTA.
So I think the significance -- there were a number of naive patients who didn't have access to a medicine previously because of a rare mutation or other situations. Uptake in that population has been very quick because they've been eager for a medicine. You've got some patients who had discontinued a CF medicine previously. We're doing our best to track those patients down. They're not always easy to find, but we've seen a nice uptake there as well in discontinued patients. And then you have patients who will switch from TRIKAFTA or one of our older medicines. Switching has been -- is ongoing and steady.
We still believe that over time, the majority of patients will switch from TRIKAFTA or one of our other medicines to ALYFTREK, but the pace of that is gradual and consistent and rising throughout the year. So I think it's important to note that the majority of prescriptions written for ALYFTREK are for patients who are switching. And so that's significant as well. The label is different in Europe. It doesn't have the liver monitoring requirement, and there are more of those naive patients in Europe. So we expect uptake there will be quicker. But overall, a terrific medicine. And I think we're very happy with where we are for the year.
In the community, do you see among pulmonologists and sort of CF specialists, is there a greater appreciation for sweat chloride as a marker of disease progress? In other words, I think FEV1 when you first launched TRIKAFTA was by far and away, that was the -- but this has the same FEV1 benefits, but then you add sweat chloride. Is there -- in the community, more of a focus on that versus, say, a year or 2 ago?
I mean I would say, first of all, that doctors and patients in CF have understood for a long time that sweat chloride is a readout of the underlying biology, which is CFTR function. And so it makes a lot of sense, it has been our goal from the start to bring as many people as possible to carrier levels of CFTR function because people who have one copy of the CF mutation, parents or siblings or what have you don't have any disease. So I think underlying, there is an understanding of that. Now having -- of the importance of sweat chloride.
Now having said that, our goal for a long time has been to get as many people as possible to carrier levels of sweat chloride once a day, early in life, obviously, maximal benefit in terms of FEV1 with a great safety and tolerability profile. And I do think that we're very close to being there. I think one of the things that is sort of worth stepping back and noting is that the vast majority of people obviously are approved not just for Delta F508, but also rare mutations now that we, I think, maximally benefited what you can do with FEV1. I think whatever is left that hasn't responded is actually probably scar in people who have the disease, which is one reason why treating early in life is so key because you can avoid tissue damage.
And the majority of people in all of our disease groups are already below the diagnostic threshold. And in some settings, we're getting close to a very substantial majority, even in some cases, already at carrier levels. For example, we recently announced results from the 1- to 2-year-old study with TRIKAFTA, where 70% or so of those kids were already at carrier levels. And so I think that one of the key messages that I think the community understands is we'd like to get to normal CFTR function because that will be the long-term benefit. But right now, there are -- a lot of them are reasonably happy with where they are. And I think that's fine because I think in the long run, they're going to want to switch to ALYFTREK because it's once a day because they'll get even better chloride. But I think one of the reasons there's not quite as much rush is their satisfaction with where they already are with TRIKAFTA, which is for the patients, a great set of opportunities to have.
I guess to follow up on that, the patients that, for example, were treated with TRIKAFTA from newborn, do you see a growing body of patients that are still pancreatic sufficient, which is a big deal, right, in terms of their disease progress and the economics of that are much more meaningful than a patient who stay a teenager who are fixed.
I mean it's a little early to say. It's one of the things -- someone asked me like, when you think about the future, what are you excited about? One is just to see what happens in the next decade of these young kids who are treated. It's a little early just to say because of the -- exactly what that will turn out to be. But obviously, the hope, and I think there's reason to be reasonably confident about this is that when you treat kids at a very young age, KALYDECO is approved down to age 1 month. And when you treat kids that early on, that hopefully, the systemic benefits go beyond just the acute benefits.
And so I can't give you the exact answer because it's a little too early to say in terms of the number of kids treated, but I'm very eager to see how that plays out over time. And the hope would be, and I think it's a reason to believe this hope that you treat kids that early with levels below the diagnostic threshold and in many cases, carrier levels, they're going to hopefully have as normal a life as possible.
And David, where are we with respect to the ex mutations, the premature stop codon patients? I know you have a collaboration with Moderna. Maybe just give us a bit of a context for that. It's been more of a technical challenge to address that population. I think it would be helpful to talk about why that is. And then in addition to mRNA, what other kind of technologies or methodologies could you use to address that part of the population?
It's a great question. The gene for cystic fibrosis was cloned in 1989. And in the first decade of the 1990s, everyone thought gene therapy would be the solution. And in fact, the way our CF program started was after that decade not having succeeded, there was a frustration and it led to -- let's try a small molecule approach, a frustration in the community that led ultimately to our program. And one reason why even today now, 35 years after the cloning of the gene, it hasn't succeeded for the 5,000 or so people who don't respond potentially to our medicines is mostly, I think, because of delivery to the lung.
If you said what's the challenge? I think there are so many technologies now, whether it's gene therapy, gene editing, mRNA, what have you, that if you can get them into the right cells in a safe and tolerable way, it should benefit the patients. But I think the delivery is the hard part. In the case of our collaboration with Moderna, we spent many years. The mRNA part was a little bit more straightforward. They're very expert and not move forward. But we worked really hard to discover the best LNP we could, both in terms of delivery, but also preclinical safety. And we're now in the -- as you know, the study where we're treating a multiple ascending dose. It's a one-arm study because nobody improves in the absence of treatment, and we'll be following in addition to safety and tolerability, we're following -- we'll be following FEV1 because there's no sweat chloride measurement because it doesn't get into the bloodstream.
And certainly, I look very forward to seeing those results. But if you -- going back to your question of what's the hard part, it's actually not, in my opinion, whether you're doing mRNA or gene editing or gene therapy, it's actually can you get to the right cells. And then the last point I'll make is some people say, well, couldn't you do gene editing and like do onetime, let's say, inhalation and never have to treat again. And that's very unlikely, at least based on current knowledge because to do that, you'd have to get into the stem cells, like not the lining of the lung, but the stem cells to treat once forever. And that's not something anyone has ever shown the ability to do. So having to dose repeatedly inhale to get to the right cells, that's the challenge.
But again, we're excited to see the results of 522. It's the best program, certainly in terms of all the data we have to date that I've seen. But as always is the case, until you have clinical data, you can't say what the outcome is.
Yes. And then the last question, I guess, Charlie, for you from a commercial perspective. You mentioned earlier the monitoring requirements, the lack of them, I guess, in Europe. When you look sort of not just Europe, but broadly OUS. Is there a potential for ALYFTREK to have maybe a broader reach than you got with TRIKAFTA from -- just given the totality of the profile, given the once a day, given the sweat chloride benefit in addition to FEV1? In other words, is this a more marketable drug kind of globally versus what Vertex had with TRIKAFTA?
I mean, listen, our goal, obviously, is to reach CF patients wherever they are. We've talked recently about some of the countries where we've expanded access and reach, so places like Turkey and Mexico and Brazil. Listen, TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK are both fantastic medicines. Again, ALYFTREK is the best available CFTR modulator there is. And so I suppose in countries where they don't have access to medicines at all, it's reasonable to assume we would start with a conversation about ALYFTREK. But I think we were making great progress with TRIKAFTA as well. So I don't think there's anything significant there about unlocking new geographies. There are patients with high unmet need who are waiting for medicine, and we want to bring the best one that we can.
The other wrinkle, just to keep in mind, in Europe and other places where we already do have access, in many cases, ALYFTREK is a new reimbursement discussion. They've already -- we've already got a reimbursement agreement in place for TRIKAFTA. There are a couple of smaller markets where we have a portfolio agreement where you can bundle ALYFTREK in right away. But otherwise, with those exceptions, it's a new reimbursement discussion. And so that naturally just takes some time anyways.
Maybe just one other thing to add to that, Charlie, is the rare mutations that ALYFTREK treats and TRIKAFTA does as well, but ALYFTREK is even more are a bigger factor in some parts of the world than others. Delta F508 is a founder mutation from Northern Europe. And so even in Southern Europe, level in other countries, the ability which ALYFTREK has the best profile of treating rare mutations expands the potential. And we're seeing that, I think, more in Europe than in the U.S. as well. So those are other advantages of medicines that can treat the largest number of rare mutations, not just Delta F508.
Right. That makes sense. Well, let's switch gears to talk about pove. So this has been increasingly part of our conversations with investors. So they've sort of moved from pain to pove and the mechanism of BAFF-APRIL. Maybe just give us a bit of a background of that of what initially was interesting to you with respect to the Alpine deal. And then when you look at the mechanisms of autoimmune through BAFF-APRIL and IgAN. These are definitely exciting science, new unmet needs for Vertex. So give us maybe the background to it.
Do you want to talk a little bit about how this ended up in the sandbox?
Absolutely. Yes. So we use this term the sandbox, which is for a disease-focused company, what are those diseases that have all the criteria from great unmet need, number of patients, mechanism of action, et cetera. And a couple of years ago, we decided just to see if we were missing any opportunities to basically review all of medicine. We actually looked at every ICD-9 code outside of cancer and infectious disease. And when we looked at that, I'm going to give a shout out to Aaron Reams, who's our Head of External Innovation, who did a fantastic job. One thing that emerged was these B cell-mediated disorders, IgAN, but also membranous nephropathy and also some others, where we saw, one, there's a great unmet need in a large number of patients and a lot of diagnosis, but also where this APRIL-BAFF inhibition was emerging as an exciting and potentially transformative approach.
And then, of course, we looked at all the different potential assets that were available. There were multiple. And we felt that -- and we still feel that pove really had the best overall profile for at least a couple of reasons -- a few reasons, I should say. One is it's engineered to have the best affinity and potency and preclinical evidence of tissue distribution. So that should give you the greatest efficacy. The early data clinically and overall was and remains very encouraging.
And then also with biologics, it's obviously very important to have the easiest, the most convenient way for patients if they have to have injections. And as we head forward, we see we're going to have the lowest volume once-a-month auto-injector. And so the combination of all those things and multiple diseases seem to us a very compelling opportunity to have a potentially best-in-class approach to this broad opportunity. And we're glad not only have we been able to make the progress, the Alpine acquisition amazingly was like 15 months...
18 months ago.
Which is not that long and sort of the integration, but also the rapid enrollment of the RAINIER trial, the initiation based on preclinical data of membranous nephropathy. We also have a couple of other diseases we've talked about following. It's really very rapid progress. And we're super excited, as you know, we're looking for our interim analysis data soon, and we're already working on rolling submission. And so obviously, we have to see the interim analysis data, but assuming it holds up, I think it's a truly exciting opportunity for '26 and beyond.
Yes. And just in the -- for the IgAN data, I know there's a number of assets out there, similar mechanisms. But what do you see as maybe the potential for differentiation with pove in IgAN versus others?
Yes. Listen, I think that a couple of things to keep in mind. One, there is a lot of innovation going on right now in renal medicine, but that's because there was no innovation ongoing for a really long time. So the unmet need among patients with IgA nephropathy and other renal diseases is enormous. And so from a commercial and from a business standpoint, obviously, there's a huge opportunity there.
With pove in particular, I think David touched on it, but I'd just reiterate, there are really 3 points. One, pove is specifically engineered for optimal potency, affinity and tissue distribution. The -- all that engineering and all the preclinical work pointed to significant potential that we're seeing play out in the clinic with significant reductions in proteinuria, hematuria, Gd-IgA. And then lastly, the point that David made, when you've got a chronic medicine or a chronic disease that leads to end-stage renal disease, you need to be really consistent and good about taking your medicine on schedule. And therefore, things like dosing and convenience come in.
And to David's point, at less than 0.5 milliliter, it's a very small dose. We will be launching with auto-injector and monthly dosing. That's a great overall profile. And so for us, when you look at those 3 things, we think pove has the potential to be best-in-class. It's very differentiated, and we'll be going into a large market with a lot of unmet need. So we feel really good about the opportunity for pove.
And not just IgAN, you have pMN, you have other. Could you talk a little bit about maybe the mechanism that -- where else could you go with respect to that BAFF-APRIL?
Yes. No, definitely. I mean even though our discussion here and initial focus is on IgAN and pMN, this is really about B cell-mediated diseases. And I do think it's an extremely interesting and promising area over the last 5 years to see how B cell-mediated diseases can be significantly benefit from these approaches that reduce the B cell activity.
One of the things that is exciting about APRIL-BAFF is it seems that evidence is that there's your autoimmune B cells that are causing the disease, but then there's also your memory B cells and others that protect you, let's say, from infections. And APRIL-BAFF seems to do a very nice job of separating those 2. It seems to have a much greater impact on the autoimmune portion than it does and leaves the sort of immunity to other things intact.
Now when we say where else could this be a focus, there are 2 areas we've called out at least to date, although there may be others in the future. One is warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia, which I remind go back to medical school, warm and cold, et cetera, but warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia, where that's part of the RUBY-4 study. And one of the things actually we liked about ALPINE was they've done these basket studies where you can learn quickly about it. So we're waiting to see more data on that, but we do believe that if that data is supportive, there's an opportunity there that would be valuable. And then the other is -- God, I'm like getting too old, that's right.
The pMN?
No, not pMN.
GMG?
Yes, GMG. Thank you.
I'll just keep shouting out.
I know. I know you can see why -- anyway. And that's the case where, again, it's a disease with some therapies that made a difference, but there's still a need right now for cyclical therapy and having a constant therapy that would be able to help people would be very valuable. And there is, in addition to sort of the theoretical benefit, there's also some data, early clinical data from another asset that shows potential transformative advantage. So we are talking to the agency about how we might pursue that as well.
Sjögren's is one that's also been thrown out as well.
It's -- again, we haven't talked about it, but certainly an interesting area to look at.
And so within the renal space, you guys have obviously APOL as well. Maybe talk about that as another asset in the portfolio. I know that Reshma being the nephrologist, but I'd like to talk about the whole kidney portfolio.
Yes. She always likes to say it's not because I'm a nephrologist, but nonetheless, she was a great nephrologist. And so in addition to IgA nephropathy and pMN, there's also, as you said, APOL1-mediated kidney disease. And that is another significant opportunity. I think the estimate is about 150,000 people who could potentially fit the criteria we're working on. We're in Phase III. We've completed enrollment of the interim analysis cohort, and that one has a 48-week follow-up, which means that 2026 later in the year, we should have that data as well.
And if you remember, it's a genetically validated target. We are many years ahead of anybody else. And if you look at the VOC data we had, it was in people with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis with very significant proteinuria for a significant period of time, we had a 47.6% reduction in proteinuria in 13 weeks. And that's quite remarkable if you look at other proteinuria conditions. And so we're in Phase III. I'm super excited to see what those results look like because we don't know for certain, but the benefit could stay stable at 13 weeks. That could be the maximal effect. Obviously, there's always the theoretical, so they could not be as much as you want.
But there's other reasons to think it could continue to fall. in the long period of time. And so that, I think, has -- is a potentially really transformative medicine as well. We'll have to see the data. And also, when you imagine, as we look forward not many years, but in the near future, the possibility of being able to launch IgA nephropathy, membranous nephropathy and APOL1-mediated kidney disease means we could go quite rapidly from not being in this renal space to having multiple potential medicines. And I think that as nephrology expands, hopefully, we can be a leader in nephrology.
Yes. Let me follow up on that. If you think about the -- what are the commercial sort of consequences of that? I know these are specialty markets. So that's for Vertex' wheelhouse. But historically, when you have indications that haven't really seen a lot of innovation and have a lot of progress, you have to have some bumps in the road, reimbursement and access wise. So is there anything that you guys could help do today that could help smoothen out kind of the -- set the stage, I guess, for the commercial launch here looking a few years.
You want to talk maybe regulatory and I'll talk to commercial?
Sure. I think there's a couple of things. From a regulatory point of view, I think what Charlie is mentioning is, one, the enthusiasm in the renal space for these new medicines. One of the things, actually, just before I get to regulatory, there was the ASN just a few weeks ago. And everyone said how it was like a transformative time where it used to be you'd go to that because there really hadn't been many dramatic advances actually since dialysis. The meeting was buzzing because of all the exciting advances.
And so I think one thing is when going into a new area like this, it matters that the doctors and the patients are excited and interested and they are. And then from a regulatory point of view, there's this movement towards understanding for certain conditions, the effect of proteinuria as a predictive marker. And so obviously, that's in IgAN, the ability to potentially get approval with interim analysis, I should say, accelerated approval with proteinuria.
And I think that, that's another way in which the field is moving forward. And while one has to and will develop the long-term outcomes of hard outcomes, I think that's another advantage to this area because there's a biomarker that can be measured by doctors that regulators agree has value and I think should make it a little more direct than something where there's nothing to measure that the doctors and regulators believe in.
Yes. And with -- from a commercial standpoint, we've always said that our strategy is disease first. So we have not typically worried about synergies downstream, though in the case of renal medicine, we have significant synergies between pove and AMKD and ADPKD as well. And I think you saw that, to David's point, at ASN, we had the largest share of voice at ASN. We had a terrific meeting there. There's an incredible awareness of Vertex and our emerging portfolio in renal medicine.
And so internally, as we're thinking about building the field force and marketing and other efforts around renal, we're able to do it with the thought that we've got pove plus AMKD plus ADPKD. We've got a broad portfolio, gives us a lot of reason to be in front of health care providers, gives us a lot of reason to think about synergies from a commercial and a marketing standpoint. So I think it's a wonderful opportunity for us.
Yes, that makes sense. Still a lot to cover. So CASGEVY, let's talk about that from maybe a commercial context, Charlie. How are you thinking about next year with respect to the access and reimbursement? And then maybe for David, what -- I know you talked about busulfan, better conditioning regimens. Maybe help us with the time lines on making that maybe a more easier kind of administration.
Yes. Commercially, I think CASGEVY is in a great place. I think we did a good job at the launch signaling that 2024 was going to be a foundational year. We know that the patient journey from the time that they meet with their physician to considering all of the aspects of the treatment and have cell collection, go through manufacturing, get reinfused, it's a long journey. It's measured in many months. So we knew that. And we knew, therefore, that patient dosing and revenue would take a while to start to materialize. I think we're seeing great progress in 2025.
We mentioned on the call that we expect revenue for the year to be north of $100 million for CASGEVY, which shows a nice steady ramp over the course of the year. And if you look at some of the metrics we've provided in terms of patient initiations and patients undergoing first cell collection, you can -- for lack of a better word, you can see that the patient funnel is building significantly, which gives us clear line of sight to a number of patients who we would expect to be infused in 2026. So it is -- given the length of the patient journey, it's taken a while for the ramp to develop, but very happy with the progress we made in 2025. And I think it's clear you'll see a significant increase in 2026. We'll comment on that when we give our guidance in February.
And before I talk about some of these other approaches, which I will, I do think what Charlie was saying in terms of the -- what is actually an innovative foundation for how to launch such a medicine, how to work with ATCs, I think, is actually the more important near-term factor than what I'm going to describe only because that's been a lot of foundation building, and I think it's going to play out over time. But there are certainly multiple things we're investing significantly into to, in the long run, be able to expand more dramatically. The most near term is improved conditioning.
So busulfan obviously has its own challenges. And so we've been working for some time on finding novel assets developing -- finding or -- and it's turned out we have to develop them internally that have an affinity for hematopoietic stem cells, so they more specifically than busulfan reduce those and also some way of actually, again, without damaging anything else, reducing them. So we're working on that. We're in late preclinical development with the first such opportunity. But as always, we do serial innovation. So we have others behind that.
The second thing we're looking at like others is in vivo delivery. And that, again, is, I think, has -- it's very easy to think about, but it has more challenge because to get the hematopoietic stem cells and not be editing elsewhere is going to be a challenge, but we're working on that. And some of the things we're doing for improved conditioning, identifying novel assets to have the affinity for the right cells could also be of value in delivering a gene editing in vivo to that.
And then the third thing, which doesn't get as much attention, but I think has great long-term potential is a small molecule that could reduce BCL11A and increase beta-globin. One way of thinking about this is the genetic studies suggested that BCL11A would be a good target. CASGEVY proves that if you can modulate BCL11A, you can have the outcome we're seeing, which is quite remarkable. And so we've been working for years on a small molecule approach to do that.
And again, while it's still in the research phase, I think given our background in terms of doing CF and doing genetics and doing some inaxaplin and some of these others, I have the confidence that we have the best chance of finding such a molecule. And if we did, of course, that would have even broader benefit.
And Geoff, I did I mean to skip over, part of your question was about access and reimbursement. The 2 largest markets for CASGEVY are the U.S. and the Middle East essentially. We have great access and reimbursement across both regions. We also have great access and reimbursement in Europe as well, particularly in larger markets like the U.K., Italy, Germany. So access and reimbursement isn't a rate limiter on CASGEVY at this point.
Okay. And then just the last minute here, when you think about uses of capital, you guys are highly profitable, generating a lot of cash. You've done the Alpine deal. You haven't done a lot of larger transactions. So Charlie, how are you thinking about sort of the strategy from here? Is there a need and urgency to do something? Or do you -- you have enough therapeutic areas, right, that you're diversified enough, but I wasn't there's an interest or need to maybe add a new vertical?
Yes. I mean, listen, we've been very consistent in describing and I think executing our capital allocation strategy. First and foremost, we try to preserve flexibility to invest in the business internally and externally. I am particularly proud of the Alpine transaction. David talked about it. It closed 18 months ago. Under our ownership, the program has accelerated. And obviously, we're in a great place in terms of being in the clinic right now. And that was kind of a perfectly sized deal at the perfect stage of development, one where we could still add value and feel really good about the value that we paid.
So we'll continue to prioritize investment in innovation and in BD. We're open to all sorts of types and sizes of transactions. It took us a while to find Alpine. But when we found it, we move really quickly and decisively. So if we have the opportunity to either add on to one of our existing verticals or perhaps another disease that's already in our sandbox, we would -- we'd be interested in doing something like that. But we have incredibly high standards for science and medicine and something's got to cross that threshold.
Secondarily, we are active with our share buyback program as well. That's the other component of our capital allocation. We've bought back something like $2 billion worth of shares this year, taking advantage of some of the stock price dislocation that we saw in the second quarter in particular. And so I feel really good that we've been buying back at high volumes at these prices.
Awesome. Guys, thank you very much.
Thank you, Geoff.
Thank you.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — UBS Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everyone. My name is Dina Elmonshed, one of the U.S. biotech analysts here at UBS. And joining me today is the President and CEO of Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Reshma Kewalramani. Thank you so much for joining us, Reshma, today, and glad to have you with us.
Thank you, Dina.
So maybe just to get started, we can walk through the base business with cystic fibrosis. Obviously, TRIKAFTA continues to grow really well. And you're in the midst of the ALYFTREK launch. Maybe talk through the dynamics of the early days of this launch, how that's going versus expectations? And who has been the initial patient population that's come on to this drug? And just what's the impact of -- or maybe just the initial feedback that you've been getting from providers and considering the new liver monitoring and just a lot of different dynamics there. So maybe if we can just run through them and get your thoughts.
Sure. Well, good morning, all. It's a nice intimate group. So I'm very eager to talk with you and tell you a little bit about where Vertex is. On cystic fibrosis, it is obviously now a very large business. We've been in it for, gosh, 15 years or so. And the fifth and latest CFTR modulator regimen is ALYFTREK. It was approved in December of last year. And so we're just about a year into our launch. Overall, it is going very well, and I'm really pleased with what we're seeing.
With regard to the dynamics and how we see patients who are previously on TRIKAFTA or any of our other medicines and how the movement onto ALYFTREK is going, here's the big picture thematic. ALYFTREK is the best medicine that we have ever invented. And I believe that and the reason we say that is because the ultimate defect in a patient with cystic fibrosis is in a protein called CFTR. That CFTR protein is a full body protein, and that's what leads to elevations in sweat chloride, the sticky mucus in the lung, pancreatic dysfunction, liver dysfunction, et cetera. And the medicine of all of the ones that we've made and are available that restore CFTR function to its greatest level as measured by sweat chloride is ALYFTREK. This is a very educated population. This is a genetic disease. It runs in families. So children have this at birth. And so parents are very motivated, patients are very motivated to be on the best medicine.
And maybe the last thing to say on that is -- the patients that I used to see when I was a young doctor were thin, small, breathing heavily and the average age of death was about 30 years of age, unfortunately. And the cause of death was lung failure. That is not CF anymore. The patient is a bigger looking person, taller, bigger. They're not breathing so hard. They have much better pancreas and liver functions and the projected age of life is well over 70. And what that means is now people are looking to make sure they're living their healthiest life, not worrying about dying from liver disease. And that's why ALYFTREK with its best to date CFTR function is so important.
We have divided up the people into 3 basic categories: people who are new to medicine, people who are discontinued from one of our older medicines and want to come back and people who are on one of our older medicines, including TRIKAFTA and want to make a switch. Unsurprisingly, the uptake has been fastest in those who are new to medicine. ALYFTREK not only has greater sweat chloride benefit, but it has 31 more mutations than TRIKAFTA. Those 31 mutations translates to something like 400, 500 patients in the U.S. So those patients, again, unsurprisingly because they've been waiting for a medicine that treats the underlying cause of their disease, they were the first to move. The discontinued are next, but the discontinues are harder because they've not only stopped their medicine, but they may be not coming to their clinic, they've stopped coming to their clinic.
And on the switches, I would say it's steady and it continues to be so. And it goes to a point that Dina made. People who are on TRIKAFTA love their TRIKAFTA. They have a visceral emotional attachment. People send us pictures of when they got their TRIKAFTA box. People post on YouTube and Instagram when they got their box and they remember their anniversary. One of our younger patients just posted that he is 6 years on TRIKAFTA because he was amongst the first. So there's a real emotional reaction, and we don't force people to change. If they're happy with their drug, so be it. But as I said, these are a very educated population. ALYFTREK is once daily versus TRIKAFTA, which was twice a day.
And honestly, I didn't think that, that was such a big deal. It turns out that it is a big deal especially for adolescents and the efficacy is clearly greater. So that -- those group of switchers are switching over, and I expect that, that will continue. And the point that you made is an important one. There is additional monitoring that came into being in December of last year in the U.S. for both TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK. You have to now monitor once a month for a little period of time, then you can go to quarterly, then annually, which was the old schedule quarterly and then annually. So people are thinking through how to do this, when to do this, how to do it in the most simple way.
I'll just end by saying we just launched outside the U.S. So the U.S. regulatory approval was December of last year. We just got regulatory approval in Europe in the past couple of months, and we've just secured reimbursement in countries like Denmark, Germany, the U.K. in the last 4, 6 weeks. So we can see the early trends in ALYFTREK outside the U.S. And remember, those 31 mutation, I was telling you, there's 400, 500 in the U.S., there's 4,000, 5,000 ex U.S. So there's a bigger group of the new patients who are coming on to drug and then there are the dynamics of switching. The important thing to know about the ex U.S. is that the liver monitoring didn't change. It's the same as it used to be. So there isn't a logistical thought process that the patients there need to go through. Early days, but launch looks really good there as well.
Great. That actually moves up to my next point about the opportunity. And I think you mentioned it's about 4,000 patients ex U.S. How do you think about the cadence of that launch? And maybe when can we see sort of an inflection and the ex-U.S. patients start really coming on? I mean, reimbursement in ex U.S. takes a while. So I know that's always a hurdle for every drug and every company. But -- how can we think about that cadence and the dynamics playing out in '26 and beyond for...
Yes. I think in the ex-U.S. setting, the 3 categories of patients are the same. There's just more patients in that category of first getting access to a medicine because there are more ultra-rare mutations there. But I think it will be those coming on to drug discontinued followed by the transitions. The timing dynamic there is going to be reimbursement. So we have reimbursement in some of these early countries. But as you know, the average in the EU is something like 2 years to 3 years. We have clearly surpassed that because we already have reimbursement in a place like England, which is not so easy, not so nice. But I do think that over the coming year and certainly globally in the coming years, I do expect that the majority of CF patients will make their decision to move to ALYFTREK because it is the best medicine we have to date.
Awesome. Okay. And I feel like people are focused on TRIKAFTA, ALYFTREK. I don't think the CF portfolio really stops there. There's a bunch of other assets that you guys are working on. And so I know that there is a next-gen 3.0 molecule that you guys have sort of mentioned. Maybe what's the status with that? And what are your expectations for that molecule? And how are you thinking about that as the portfolio expands over the next couple of years?
Yes. Let me hit on that one directly, and then let me go and tell you because you might be wondering, well, why are you still doing this? So the next medicine in the lineup is VX-828. That medicine has now initiated the CF patient cohort. So we finished healthy volunteers. We have the PK and the DDIs and all that good stuff. And as of now, we are in the patient cohort. So why are we doing this?
TRIKAFTA is an amazing medicine. ALYFTREK is an amazing medicine that has even more benefit by way of the once-daily dosing and the greater CFTR protein function. Here's what our goals are in the big picture. One, bring forward a medicine that can treat the 95% or so of patients. We used to say 90% turns out to 95% who can benefit from oral CFTR modulators. That one gets a check starting with TRIKAFTA, certainly now extended with ALYFTREK with the additional mutations.
Second big goal, bring the majority, if not all of our patients down to what we call carrier level, otherwise known as normal levels of sweat chloride. That number is 30 millimoles or less. And third big goal is bring forward a medicine for that last 5% of patients who simply don't make any protein, so a small molecule cannot help them. And our approach to that, our first approach is with VX-522, it's an mRNA-based treatment.
So the reason we're pursuing 828, and you're very correct, it doesn't end there. We have a whole slew of molecules beyond that. If it is humanly possible to do better than TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK, we're committed to being the ones who do so. It's getting awfully hard. But if it's possible, we're going to be the one who do it.
Okay. Well, that's, I think, a great goal. I guess maybe another asset that you guys have is partnered with Moderna for CF. And I know that, that one, I believe, had a clinical hold. So what's the status of that one? And what is the differentiation there? I know that, that one is a little bit unique because it's focusing on the population that is not necessarily part of that 95%.
Correct.
So how are you thinking about that program? And where are you guys -- where are you?
If you round and say that there are about 100,000 people with cystic fibrosis in the Western world, then about 5,000 people won't be able to benefit from CFTR modulators. The CFTR modulators, the small molecules need a place on the protein to hook on to. And if you don't make any protein, it won't work. So for those patients, we need some kind of nucleic acid therapy and the lead is VX-522, that's that program partnered with Moderna.
Two important things to note. CF is actually a systemic disease. It's not a disease of the lung, which is how we think of it because, as I mentioned, that's the way our patients used to die. But it's a systemic disease. It's -- you see it in the sweat chloride. You see it in pancreas, you see it in liver. You see it in the stature of our patients before CFTR modulators. So the absolute best medicine is a small molecule, so you can get the full body effect.
For the last 5,000 or so patients, the nucleic acid approach, though, is a lung-directed approach because we need to somehow deliver the cargo, the mRNA. And it's hard -- delivery is the hard thing in cell and gene therapy, right? So we can -- we have an idea and we have an approach, and we're in the clinic with an LNP-based approach to deliver the cargo to the lung. But actually, the best medicine is a small molecule. So this medicine is being delivered to the lung via a nebulizer delivered through an LNP. It was a program that we put on pause as we work through a tolerability issue, but I'm really happy to say the program is back up and running. We're enrolling and dosing patients. And it is in CF patients. So I expect we'll be able to share safety and efficacy sometime next year.
Okay. That's great. I guess moving on to pipeline. And actually, I know most people would start with pain, but I want to start with kidney given that we just finished ASN this week, pove is an interesting asset. And obviously, these drugs are sort of all the talk right now in Wall Street. So maybe just remind us, you have a Phase III asset in IgAN and with pove. And so maybe just remind us the time lines and I've sort of done some math. You guys have completed enrollment, say, Q1, Q2 time frame. Maybe you can share the specific month. It's a 36-week endpoint. So if we do the math, we kind of expect data first half '26. And I think on the Q3 call, you guys are already starting the rolling BLA. So -- and you plan to file shortly after that data.
If you guys need a priority voucher, that means you can probably be approved as soon as late next year. So that's an exciting new portfolio for you. This would be your first kidney drug that would be marketed if it was to be approved. Does that time line sort of sound reasonable to you? How are you thinking about the expectations there with that study?
Yes. The time line sounds reasonable. You said we're all -- renal medicine is all the talk of Wall Street. I never thought I'd hear those words out as anyone. As a card-carrying nephrologist, we were always second, if not third or fourth fiddle to diabetes and heart disease and all of the other areas. So renal medicine is having its day, and there is indeed a renaissance in renal medicine drug development, which is fabulous.
All right. IgAN. IgAN is an important disease. We've known about it for a long time. We've actually known the causal biology for a long time. We just haven't had great medicines for it. And now we're at the point where we do have what are potentially great medicines and the one from Vertex is povetacicept. So just as a quick primer, IgAN is a disease that is an autoimmune disease, and we understand exactly where it comes from. There is this aberrant antibody called Gd-IgA. And you -- when you have this aberrant Gd-IgA, you make autoantibodies against it, those deposit into the kidney, that's what leads to disease. The way the disease manifests is proteinuria, hematuria, decreases in kidney function and ultimately, death, dialysis or transplantation. So that's the disease.
We have had an interest in an IgAN for a long time at Vertex. We just didn't have an approach that we thought was transformative. When we saw Alpine and the emerging data there, we purchased -- we acquired that company for povetacicept for that reason. Where are we today? The interim analysis cohort for potential accelerated approval was enrolled a little while ago. Now we have also finished complete enrollment in the entire Phase III study. So it's a little bit more than 600 people, and we enrolled that in a little bit under 15 months. It's the fastest enrollment of any contemporary IgAN study, which tells you a little something about both the disease and about pove.
We secured breakthrough designation from the FDA, and we secured rolling submission. I believe we're the only ones in the IgAN space that have that. And we've decided to use one of our priority review vouchers to guarantee a priority review. That means we're going to submit our first module before the end of this year. We're going to complete our submission in the first half of next year. And because we're using our voucher, it means it's a 6-month review as opposed to the standard 10-month review.
Yes. Yes. So that's exciting. I mean I think that will be a soon-to-watch launch in 2027. And hopefully, if all goes well.
I think the fourth pillar is coming to Vertex.
Yes, it definitely is. You guys actually just shared additional Phase II data at ASN this weekend. And then I think we also -- there's a couple of other players that are going after IgAN, Vera and Otsuka, and they also shared some of their Phase III data. Maybe just talk us through the differentiation there of pove versus these other assets. I mean they're kind of going to be all in the market around the same time. And so how does pove stand out?
Yes. In short, I believe pove has best-in-class promise. And the reason I say that is the following. You can divide the treatment landscape for IgAN into maybe 3 categories. Maybe you can make more, but 3 is pretty good for government business. The first is your general nonspecific medicines, ACEs, ARBs, ERBs, et cetera. People should use them. They've been around forever, and they are nonspecific, but they have been shown, generally speaking, to be protective of the kidney no matter what the underlying kidney disease is. So I would use those. Then there are steroids and long-acting, short-acting, what have you, but they have quite significant side effects and have not been shown to be disease modifying.
And then you have your targeted therapies. In the targeted therapies, I would carve out APRIL BAFF versus everything else. BAFF alone is not an APRIL BAFF. There are marketed molecules that are BAFF only. APRIL only is not APRIL BAFF. It's APRIL only. In my mind, APRIL BAFF is very important when you think about IgAN. IgAN, as we discussed, is a disease where you have autoantibodies being produced against this autoantigen.
If you look at the B-cell development, there is a slide that we and others show, it looks like a skiddle slide where you have an early B cell that matures into a plasma cell and the plasma cell is what releases your antibodies. There are multiple pathways. But for simplicity's sake, think about that skiddle slide and think about the fact that BAFF works early on in B-cell development and APRIL works later in B-cell development. So if you told me, let design your best idea to make a medicine for IgAN, I would design a dual APRIL/BAFF inhibitor because I wouldn't want to have only BAFF inhibition, and I wouldn't want to have only APRIL inhibition because I would expect that I would have lesser efficacy versus having dual.
In the dual APRIL/BAFF class, there are 2 drugs in development. Recall the -- I don't know how to say -- let's call it the base drug. The base drug is called a wild-type TACI. It exists. It's wild-type. And what we have done is something called directed mutagenesis to take that wild-type TACI and change it over time to have it have the kind of properties we would want for drugs. Pove has high potency. It has high binding affinity. And importantly, it has high tissue penetration because we've engineered this molecule to do those things. And we want this molecule to dose -- to do those things versus wild-type TACI so that it's best equipped to go. Remember, we talked about the glomerulus and all the action is where these complexes form in the kidney. So you need your drug to go to the kidney where these immune complexes are located. And those are the reasons that pove, I think, has best-in-class potential. The Phase II clinical data obviously tell you that, yes, clinically, what we thought would happen is exactly what happened. And now we're at the point where we're awaiting our Phase III data.
Exciting. Okay.
I should say, Dina, and maybe you would get to this, in biologics, it's really, really important. It is not an afterthought and it's not a nice to have to make sure that you have patient-centric characteristics about how you're going to administer it because this is not a pill. This is an injection. Market research shows this, but it's not rocket science. Patients would prefer once monthly dosing to more frequent dosing. Small volume is preferred to big volume.
Auto-injector is preferred to anything else. And the Vertex pove medicine is once a month, subcutaneous, at home, 0.46 mL via an auto-injector. And you have to go through all of the others to see, okay, well, that one is once a week, that one is 4 mLs, that one is 2 mL x2. That one is something else. And so I think this is an important thing to think about.
No, that's definitely 100%, I think, the right way to think about it because how uptake is important and compliance is important, having a medicine. And this is not just in IgAN, but across all other indications as well. Maybe then there pove is a pipeline and a product. And so you have your Phase III PMN, and I believe you also want to start or move into MG, myasthenia gravis. And I think the myasthenia gravis is actually interesting because I know that people are also excited about the opportunity for these dual inhibitors to go into MG. How are you thinking about maybe PMN and MG as indications as you progress those Phase IIIs?
Yes. So one of the great advantages of a drug like pove is exactly this thing, this -- what people have been calling a pipeline and a product. It is a dual inhibitor with those characteristics that then can work for any autoimmune and B cell-driven autoimmune disease. One example is IgAN, but another great example and happens to be in kidney disease is membranous nephropathy. The autoantigen is a slightly different one, but it doesn't matter. The same disease process ensues.
We are already in pivotal development there. It's a reasonably small study. It's less than 200 people, and it's a full approval endpoint. And I expect that, that's going to be the next kidney disease after inaxaplin for AMKD. So I see the Vertex pipeline being pove for IgAN probably first. Then I imagine it's VX-147 or inaxaplin for AMKD, a different kidney disease, and then I think it's membranous.
And for pove, it's going to be IgAN membranous and after that, I do think myasthenia gravis is next on deck. We are wrapping up our discussions with the regulators, and I'll be able to tell you more about what that study looks like. But myasthenia is another extremely well-understood B-cell-mediated disease. And so I'm excited for this possibility.
Awesome. Okay. I'll try to squeeze one more on kidney. Before we move over to pain. But APOL1, that's -- I mean, when I started looking at Vertex that was actually the first set that ever read out when I was working on this. And so it's been a long time coming, and I think now we're in Phase III and the data is somewhere around the corner in 2026. Maybe just talk about where you are with time lines and how the enrollment is going and when we can see that data.
Yes, yes. 2026 has a lot of milestones, a lot of big milestones, Phase III readouts. It's going to be a great year. So inaxaplin also holds a special place in my heart because I was Chief Medical Officer when we started that program and turned over that Phase II card. Super interesting disease. You know I'm a nephrologist. I stopped practicing in around about 2004. We didn't even know that this disease called AMKD existed. It was named around 2010 or so. So it's a brand-new disease. We understand the genetic underpinnings.
And this inaxaplin study has the trifecta of what everybody wants in a clinical trial. It's enrollment based on genetic mutations, 2 APOL1 alleles. Two, it was an adaptive II/III design. It's now in Phase III. And three, we have an agreement with the FDA for accelerated approval. We are done with the enrollment for the interim analysis cohort. I do expect the readout will be next year. There are no medicines available that treat this disease, and this would be cracking open a new disease area. It feels awfully similar to CF in that way.
Yes. Yes. That's how I would think about it, too. Okay. Well, then moving on to pain in the last 10 minutes or so. So the JOURNAVX launch has progressed, honestly, quite nicely when we look at the TRxs. Volumes are up and ramping. Can you maybe just talk about the progress on reimbursement and the feedback you're receiving from payers? My understanding is 2 out of the 3 PBMs, you guys are on the formularies. Just elaborate on what that means. And I know that there was -- you're on Tier 3 formulary access for some of them. What does that -- how does that really play out for patients? Is there any impact there?
Yes, yes, yes. The JOURNAVX launch is enormously important. It's important because this is a big opportunity, like really big. There's, let's say, 350 Americans, every one of them can have acute pain. And there is a raging opioid crisis in our country. So to have an alternative effective pain medicine that doesn't have addictive potential, it's huge for us, for science, medicine and for the company given the opportunity.
Let me just give you some stats if you're trying to get a quick sketch in your mind about, well, how is JOURNAVX going. In the first quarter, it was something like 10,000 scripts, something like that. We launched it in about March of this year. The approval was in January. Second quarter was something like 70,000 scripts. Next, it was 170,000 scripts. And what we said on the earnings call last week is we're well over 300,000 scripts as of mid-October. So it's really going nicely. What are the important milestones to be watching for as you watch this launch? I would say the most important is the one you pointed out, reimbursement. And on that front, we have 170 million lives already covered. That includes 2 of the large 3 PBMs on the private payer side.
And I would describe the conversations with the third PBM, which we have not yet secured to be advanced, positive, productive discussions. On the government payer side, there is Medicaid to think about in Medicare. On the Medicaid side, we're going state by state to secure access on formulary where there aren't prior auths and no step edits. And it's particularly important here because people are in acute pain. We can't tell them we'll come back another day or let me check your prior auths. They need their medicine now. So we've already secured, I think we said 18 on the call, and we continue to make our way. Our goal is obviously all 50 states.
On the Medicare side, we have some coverage, and we're working to get all of our Medicare patients covered. And the important point to know is while we're working to secure this coverage, we have a patient support PSP program -- so if your doctor writes a script for you, you go to the pharmacy to collect it. Even if you don't have coverage, you will get it and we pick up the tab. And that's why, obviously, at the beginning of this ramp, the gross to net is very high, and that will ramp to a more normal level as we secure reimbursement.
We're also doing quite a bit of work in hospitals to make sure it gets on formulary, it gets on discharge orders and order sets because those are very routineized, if that's a word. It's a very -- you just have a structure, you just do your check boxes, so we need to make sure that we do that. And the last thing we're doing is awareness. This is a disease that can affect anybody. So that's 1.2 million doctors in the United States, and it's all 350 Americans. So we're doing quite a bit of work on brand awareness.
Awesome. Back to the point of 2026 being a big year for Vertex. I mean, I think this is one of the very few companies that has multiple Phase III readouts coming out in '26. Chronic -- moving on to sort of the chronic pain and DPN. You have 2 Phase III studies. One that was started a little bit later than the first one. But I think the guidance has been that you plan to complete enrollment and have both of them read out together in 2026. Where are you guys with the enrollment for that -- for both of those studies? And how is the trial -- I mean, you have some Phase II data, I actually believe maybe almost over -- more than a year ago now.
Yes. Yes.
How -- what have you done to sort of control for the placebo response and the variability given pain and especially chronic pain is sort of a challenging landscape. So yes.
It is pain of any variety is a tough disease area to work in because the endpoint, pain reduction is ultimately a subjective endpoint. I could demonstrate to you that there is no transmission of pain by looking at your neurography. But if you tell me you have pain, I cannot tell you that you do not have pain. So it is a complicated area.
On the other hand, it's also a really significant area of unmet need, and we have specific and unique skill in working on these channels. It's not like Nav1.8 was our brilliant idea. It's been known in the field for decades. It's that nobody could crack what is called the holy grail of pain, which is Nav1.7, we're working on that and Nav1.8, which we have in the form of JOURNAVX.
What I would say in terms of chronic pain is we have our 2 studies now ongoing in diabetic peripheral neuropathy. That's a market opportunity of 2 million patients. And when Lyrica was a branded drug, that was the main indication there, and it was a medicine at that time that was more than $5 billion in revenue. So it's a big in dollar size, it's big in a number of patients. Because we are looking to go to a circumscribed number of sites because of the placebo effect, so you want to control the number of sites, you want to go to sites that are very good at doing this, can train their patients and such. The DPN study #1, which did start earlier, is going to likely slow down as we bring in DPN study #2, which is why I do think both of the studies will end around the same time towards the tail end of next year. It's a 12-week study. So after enrollment completes at the tail end of next year, we need to wait for 12 weeks for the results.
Okay. So it sounds like it can probably be maybe year-end 2026 or the earliest, but maybe in early 2027 catalyst.
I feel high confidence we'll be done with the study enrollment by end of next year.
Okay. Awesome. Maybe just one last one here on Pain-993. Obviously, like we said, chronic pain is notoriously challenging. And some of the drugs are -- it's efficacious in acute but non-chronic or maybe the other way around. Maybe just talk what you've seen with 993 in acute. Maybe talk about your expectations because it's you're moving that into a chronic study Phase II, and that's reading out next year as well. Just your expectations on that asset in chronic specifically and how you can think about it.
So 993 is another NaV1.8 inhibitor. It is not known, which is why we're doing the work to determine what the case is, whether 993, which was not better than JOURNAVX in acute pain, it was not better than whether or not it will have different efficacy in diabetic neuropathy, which is why that is still continuing in its Phase II program.
We will know the answer to that, and it's really important to know it because that's what we use to build our models and to take that data and then retrain our models so that when we make newer and newer medicines, we know what to expect. He or she who has all of that data and can go back and train the models using preclinical and clinical data, I do believe we'll win in any disease, but it's particularly true in pain. So I think that we should have results for that study next year. Those will be Phase II DPN trial data.
Okay. Awesome. And I think we just have a couple of a minute here, but maybe on something that is actually -- I feel like under the radar, but the type 1 diabetes program. I think you said on the Q3 call that there was a pause that was on that program in terms of enrollment, I believe. Maybe any color that you guys have on that?
Yes. The type 1 diabetes program is -- it is like SciFi except it's real and it's happening. If any of you who know science and medicine or type 1 diabetic know that if you have type 1 diabetes, if you don't take insulin, you will be dead in between 5 and 10 days. That's just what happens because your body produces no insulin. What we have done is made allogeneic. That's to say off the shelf. It's just -- it doesn't need you -- it's not like a CAR-T where you need each one person.
We have an allogeneic stem cell-derived program where we've already dosed, treated and shared data from about a dozen people and 10 of the 12 were insulin-free at the 1-year point where we last shared the data. That's remarkable. So they're not taking any exogenous insulin. And these people have been taking 30, 40 units of insulin a day multiple times a day. What we shared on the call on Monday is that enrollment is completed in the pivotal trial. We have postponed completion of dosing while we work through a manufacturing analysis.
I'm not going to share any more because it's a pivotal program. Obviously, we want to use all of that data because it's a Phase III program. And in order to do that, we need to maintain study integrity. So I won't make any more comments. When we finish dosing, you'll certainly hear from us at that point. But I hope it helps in the event you missed the earnings call.
Okay. Well, thank you so much, Reshma. This is really great, and we hit on a lot of great things. It's great seeing you, and thank you for being with us.
Very nice seeing you, Dina.
Thank you.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Special Call - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
1. Management Discussion
Great. Good evening, everyone. My name is Susie Lisa, and as the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. I'm really thrilled that you could all be here with us tonight in Houston and for those of you on the line as well joining us for the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2025 and for a broad update on the Vertex Kidney programs.
I'll run through the agenda briefly. Our CEO, Dr. Reshma Kewalramani will open with an overview of our 3 kidney programs in pivotal development and 1 currently in a proof-of-concept study. Following Reshma's remarks, Vertex is extremely pleased and grateful to have 3 physician thought leaders here for you tonight to share their views on the RUBY-3, IgAN and pMN data presented earlier this evening, the RAINIER Phase III study of IgAN, of Pove and IgAN, which recently completed full enrollment in record time and the outlook for guidelines in treating patients with serious kidney diseases like IgAN.
First, we have the pleasure of hearing from Dr. James A. Tumlin, Professor of Medicine in Nephrology at Emory University School of Medicine, Director of Research at Georgia Nephrology and President of NephroNet. Dr. Tumlin will provide a recap of his late breaker presentation of the RUBY-3 data in IgAN and pMN.
Next, and to his left, Dr. Richard Lafayette, Professor of Medicine in Nephrology at Stanford University Medical Center and Director of the Stanford Glomerular Disease Center will provide his perspectives on the RAINIER Phase III study for Pove and IgAN. And then we're very pleased to have Dr. Brad Rovin from the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, where he is the Director of the Division of Nephrology, Vice Chair of Research and Professor of Internal Medicine. Dr. Rovin will discuss the role of guidelines and shaping the standard of care for patients with glomerular disease.
We'll then have plenty of time for your questions for Reshma or any of our physician thought leaders. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. And please note, too, that there are disease area backgrounders as an appendix to the slide deck. This call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website. We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
And with that, I have the pleasure of turning the call over to our CEO and President, Dr. Reshma Kewalramani.
Susie, thank you so much. Let me add my warm welcome to all of you. It's been a long day, and I appreciate that you're here late in the evening, and thank you to doctors Tumlin, Lafayette and to Dr. Rovin for being here. I'll start with this slide. Many of you in the room and listening to the audio today are very familiar with the Vertex strategy. It is about our sandbox approach, which is centered on diseases. We are, as you know, not a therapeutic area company. We are also not a platform company. Yet here we find ourselves tonight at the 2025 ASN with 4 renal diseases in either mid- or late-stage development, and that is fantastic.
I want to emphasize that each of these renal diseases, IgA nephropathy, membranous nephropathy, AMKD and ADPKD are here, not because I happen to be a nephrologist. They're all here because they fit our research and development strategy to a T. And that strategy has to do with unmet need. It has to do with knowing the causal human biology. It has to do with having targets that are validated usually genetic, but pharmacologic is just fine. It has to do with having biomarkers that translate and finally, it has to do with having efficient development and regulatory pathways. And we couldn't be more pleased that all of those criteria fit these 4 diseases.
You've heard me talk about the status of these particular diseases and where we are with the Vertex potential medicines, I'll call out a couple of points. The first, I am so proud to let you know that the RAINIER, the Phase III study of Pove in IgA nephropathy enrolled in less than 15 months, the fastest of any contemporary IgAN study. I think it speaks volumes to the investigators and to the steering committee, of which Dr. Lafayette is a member. It speaks volumes to the Vertex clinical development team. And boy, does it say something about the sites and the patients who are waiting for medicines to treat their disease.
The second thing I'll call out is that the membranous trial is up and running, and that Phase II/III pivotal trial is underway. On APOL1-Mediated Kidney Disease, we are now at the point where the interim analysis cohort is enrolled. That is a study that we need to wait for 48 weeks before we can turn over the card and I expect that, that will happen at some point next year, given that we enrolled the IA cohort earlier this year. The last thing I will mention is the ADPKD study that is also up and running. It's in Phase II development.
One important thing to mention is that these diseases are sometimes rare, membranous is maybe 150,000 or so in the Western world. But at other times, not that uncommon, IgAN, for example, is more than 700,000 in Asia alone. And then you add on to that another 300,000 or so in the Western world. These are diseases that are important, there's high unmet need and many of these diseases are global.
The one to call out, in particular, is ADPKD, you'll see that it's 300,000 patients. I'll come back to this. Our first approach tackles 10% of that full 300,000. So that's about 10%. And just hold that in your mind and just think about KALYDECO is to CF, as what I think VX-407 is going to be to ADPKD, the first of serial innovation, and we will get to everyone over time.
The skittles slide. You've seen this in a variety of presentations. It has to do with the underlying cause of disease for these B-cell mediated renal diseases like IgA nephropathy as well as membranous. And we can talk a little bit more about this with the experts here. But I want to call out the fact that there are multiple pathways to get to plasma cells. These plasma cells are the cells that are responsible for autoantibody production, which is the cause of disease in IgAN and which is the cause of disease in membranous. And the APRIL BAFF pathway is particularly important because the APRIL BAFF mediated pathway to plasma cells disproportionately affect the autoantibodies and leaves alone your normal antibody production, and we can certainly talk more about that.
The point I would like to share with you around povetacicept, in particular, wonderful news for patients with IgAN is that there are many potential drugs coming out. I want to emphasize what I think makes Pove different. First, it was specifically engineered to have high affinity for APRIL and BAFF. It has high potency and it was engineered to have high tissue distribution. You heard about the 4 hypothesis, the action here that leads to the disease is the deposition of these immune complexes in the kidney. So we need to make sure that the drug gets to the right place.
The second is that it's a dual APRIL BAFF inhibitor and I believe because B-cell maturation requires both APRIL and BAFF that you don't want to be in a situation where you have unopposed APRIL or unopposed BAFF, and this tackles both. Lastly, this is a disease for which our patients are going to need to take medicine chronically, i.e., for the rest of their lives. So if you look at the markets in which biologics have been active, it is extremely important. It's not an afterthought. It's not nice to have. It's not some characteristic or attribute of the drug. It's really important that the medicine is in a format at a duration in an injectable where the patient can take it. And for Pove, what you should expect is at home administration via an auto-injector, every 4 weeks, subcu with a volume less than 0.5 ml.
To just leave you with a little bit of what's to come. We're here today talking about the 4 diseases in renal medicine, the 2 that involve Pove. I expect that there will be more coming in terms of diseases that Pove can potentially treat. And the one that I think is next in line is myasthenia gravis, more on that in the coming months as we complete our discussions with the regulatory agencies.
All right. I'm going to get ready to turn it over to the esteemed physicians to talk about these, but here's the 1 pager that you need to know in all of the VERTEX programs. The RUBY-3 trial continues. It has our IgAN patients in it for long-term follow-up as well as our membranous patients, and it is the data from these trials that give us the opportunity to think about Pove as a best-in-class medicine.
RAINIER, that trial is done enrollment, not done enrollment for the accelerated cohort for the potential accelerated approval that's done, too but the full enrollment is complete. I expect that we will file our first module before the end of this year by way of the rolling submission that was granted by the FDA in addition to the granting of breakthrough status. And I expect that we will complete the filing in the first half of next year, expecting that the results will be supportive.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on Pove's RCT, just to let you know that the RCT is in pivotal development. It is up and running. and we can come back and talk about the specifics of the study design. I do not want to forget about AMKD. There is so much excitement about IgAN and membranous and B cell-driven diseases, and I get it. And there's a lot of enthusiasm for Pove and I get that as well. But I want you to also remember AMKD. This is an incredibly important disease with no treatments available. The IA cohort is done. I expect that we'll have results next year. The data have to simmer for 48 weeks. I also want to let you know that the amplified study, which is a study of AMKD, so people with 2 alleles who also have another underlying disease, think diabetes or have lower degrees of proteinuria. That is going to finish enrollment this year.
And a real look into the future, this is the ADPKD program. And the highlight here is just like in CF, where the underlying cause of disease is a misfolded protein -- and I think I mentioned this earlier today, but it remains true that the only medicines that we know of, small molecules, that properly refold a misfolded protein to lead to therapeutic benefit are the CFTR modulators. We've taken a page out of that book to work on ADPKD. And it is an example of, hopefully, another class of protein folding medicines, medicines that can properly fold a misfolded protein that we hope to get to pivotal development after we get through this Phase II proof-of-concept study. That one is VX-407.
With that, I'm going to turn it over first to Dr. Tumlin. Those of you who are able to attend his session, he just gave an oral presentation on these data. You have the benefit of Dr. Tumlin going through the same data just for you this evening. Dr. Tumlin, I turn it over to you.
Thank you, Reshma. Well, good evening, everybody. I'm Jim Tumlin. I'm from Emory, and I'm a Director of NephroNet. And as Reshma said, it's a real pleasure to be here tonight. And I will be talking about the Povetacicept data and IgA and PLA2 receptor-positive membranous, which is the RUBY-3 trial. Okay. Now this is our disclosures. Most of us have do consulting work for a lot of folks, including Vertex. And Reshma's kind of gone over this, but again, let me just kind of reemphasize. The understanding of the APRIL and BAFF pathway has been seminal in B-cell modulation. Both of these cytokines, which are a dendritic cell origin typically are expressed in Peyer's patches throughout the gut epithelium, typically, the terminal ilium. And at this location, normally the gal-deficient IgA1 molecules are produced and then normally secreted into the gut lumen.
So APRIL and BAFF as I said before, are dendritic cell origins that modify B-cell development. There's a tremendous amount of overlap between these 2 drugs. They both are involved in class switch, but for simplicity's sake, the BAFF pathway is primarily related to immature B cells up to mature B cells. And then after that, APRIL begins to mature cells toward full on plasma cells which reside in our bone marrow to remind you and do nothing but make the antibody which they're designed to make.
Now that pathway, the development of plasma cell-derived gal-deficient IgA1 is the center of the known universe for IgA nephropathy. What happens is -- and you've probably heard this several times, it always bears repeating. As I said a moment ago, these Peyer's patches secrete normally the gal-deficient IgA1 through the colonic epithelium into the gut lumen where they work with total 9 receptors to help contain the trillions of bacteria that we hold in our gut. Some breakdown of that transmission process either the failure to secrete or the possibility of a back leak of this gal-deficient IgA1 allows it to reenter into the circulation.
Now it's important to remember, your immune system has never seen that gal-deficient IgA1. So when it arrives, it functions as a neoantigen. And then your immune system does what it does well. It generates an IgG molecule against the gal-deficient IgA1 and creates a circulating immune complex. That's in part where the complement activation comes from is from these IgG antibodies. These circulating complexes deposit within the mesangium of the kidney binding to the mesangial cells, stimulating a storm of cytokine release, endothelium and ultimately the phenotype that we recognize as IgA nephropathy.
Now Reshma has already gone over this, but it just bears repeating. Povetacicept is a very cleverly designed and engineered molecule based off the base wild-type TACI solubilized receptor. In the wild type, the binding of the protein for BAFF is marginal and has very little APRIL binding. By manipulating the molecular structure, they were able to algorithmically increase both the BAFF and the APRIL binding, allowing it 2 things to happen. It is increased functionality as a sync for these 2 important cytokines, and it has better tissue penetration.
Now the RUBY-3 trial. So let me just digress for a second. I was helped with Alpine and the part of the design of this trial. And this is one of the first that I'd come across a basket trial where you were able to look at a multiple set of different similar but not necessarily the same immune complex diseases and gather a lot of clinical utility for your specific pharmacologic agent in a very short amount of time. And that was the rationale by using -- looking at IgA nephropathy and PLA2 receptor positive membranous.
Now both of these diseases had to have biopsy-proven diseases, obviously. For the IgA, you had to have at least 500 milligrams of protein per gram. For the membranous, you had to have 1,000 milligrams, pretty typical stuff, eGFR above 30, standard maximum RAS, ACE, ARB blockade for 3 months. And then to be in the membranous wing, you had to have a proven circulating tighter PLA receptor antibody titers.
The patients then received either 80 milligrams or 240 milligrams. At that time, it was unknown what the optimal doses, whether this included dose-finding arrangement. The original study was to go for 24 weeks. It was then extended by 28 weeks and then ultimately extended it out to 52 weeks and now has data up to 2 years. The endpoints include a safety signal, looking for change in UPR, change in GFR, change in the Gd-IgA1 levels and the PLA2 receptor antibody titers and how many people achieved immunologic remission, and we'll come back to that.
Here's the demographics kind of a standard study for IgA. Patients were in their mid-40s. There's a male/female ratio of around 1/3, so predominantly were female. The Asian and Caucasian ratio was roughly 50-50. Time to diagnosis is roughly 2.1 years. ACE/ARB was almost uniform, 86% of the 80-milligram dose, 100% in the 240. Protein in the study was around 1.3 grams in the 80 and 1.2 grams in the 240. And if you look, there are the gal-deficient IgA1 level. So 9,068 nanograms per ml versus 7,251 substantial levels of Gd-IgA1. About half the patients had either moderate to severe hematuria at the time of enrollment.
So as I like to say, here's the money slide. So this is what happened with urinary protein changes over time. You can see that in as little as 12 weeks, that was approximately a 35% reduction -- a 40% reduction in proteinuria and continue to decline over the ensuing 48 weeks to a total of a 64% reduction in UPCR. To remind the audience, what led to this herculean change in the number of molecules and pharmacologic agents in IgA, it was the observation there was a dose-dependent outcome based on the level of proteinuria.
So what we always tell our fellows, if you do anything to get that proteinuria down, you benefited the patient, a 64% drop is substantial. It's also bearing -- should be beared and reminded to the audience that a full 2/3 of these people achieved the target level of 500 milligrams of protein or less. So it's not just a 64 drop from 5,000 to 2,000, it was the target level of proteinuria that affects the outcome long term.
And this is something that Rich and Brad and I talk a lot about that is just a remarkable phenomenon of this class of drugs. If you can look, this is the change in GFR over 48 weeks. There was an actual increase in GFR of plus 3.3 ml per meter squared of GFR, which is unheard of, truthfully.
If you then look and ask about what happens with the Gd-IgA1 levels, again, within 12 weeks, you see roughly a 57% drop in Gd-IgA1, further falling down to a nadir level of 77% and that value is precisely the same for the 240 dose. There was no difference in Gd-IgA1 reduction between the 80 and the 240.
If you then ask, what was the outcome with the hematuria. So there's a lot of controversy about hematuria. A lot of people have different opinions about this. But you can see at the hematuria of 12 weeks, about half the patients had resolution of their hematuria. And at that time of that resolution, about 15% of the patients had achieved a complete remission, which is defined as less than 500 milligrams for 24 hours. By week 24, effectively 90% of the hematuria had resolved, and there was a corresponding increase in complete response rates of 32%, 44% and ultimately in 48 weeks a full 53% of the patients had achieved a complete response.
If you then look at the -- moving on to the PLA2 positive membranous patient, here is the demographics, a little bit older population, not unexpected, predominantly male and also not unexpected. equal distribution between ethnic cohorts. Time from diagnosis is about 1.3 years. The protein was also expected to be higher. It was 3.8 grams and a full 60% of those people had nephrotic range proteinuria. ACE/ARB was 100% in this small cohort of 10 patients. and SGLT2 was seen about 1/3.
And once again, this is the effect of the povetacicept on proteinuria. So you see a substantial drop to approximately 35% by week 12 and then further declines at week 48 down to an 82% drop in proteinuria. Once again, whatever you do that you drop proteinuria you're benefiting the patient. A similar outcome is seen and these are remarkable. You just don't see this. Here's a change in GFR in the membranous patients over the 48 weeks. It was a negative 0.3%, milligrams per -- I'm sorry, 0.3 ml per minute.
Now lastly, if you look at the anti-PLA2 titers, again, you see a significant drop by week 12, you're going down to a further drop of 83%. And then if you ask yourself what percentage of patients achieved an immunologic remission, which they define as less than 14 international units of PLA2 titers, 44% achieved that by week 12. And by week 48, effectively, all of the patients, all 10, had achieved an immunologic remission.
How about complete or partial response rates? So again, this is at 12 weeks, 24, 36 and 48. And you can see that at week 12, approximately 11% had complete response, 33 were partial. By week 48, that number had increased to 40% complete response rate, less than 500 milligrams for 24 hours with a full 100% achieving a level of partial response.
So if you then look at the -- how well the drug was tolerated. Most of the AEs were mild in severity. There were really no SAEs that were directly attributed to povetacicept. No safety concerns with laboratory parameters and no meaningful clinical trends. Now there was 1 patient in the 80 group that had a drop in their -- I'm sorry, into their IgGs less than 300 and it's a little bit difference on that. And so in case the audience is curious, that there was -- if you had a single episode, the drug was held and then it was stopped and then put back on and the recovery rate from that was very rapid, actually.
Okay. So in summary conclusions. Povetacicept 80 milligrams given once a month subcutaneously had remarkable effects. Proteinuria declined by 64% on a week 48. GFR was stable throughout week 48. Gd-IgA1 levels dropped by 57% with the week 12 and 77% by week 48. Hematuria was resolved within 24 weeks and 90% of the patients with medium and large levels of hematuria. Clinical remission was achieved by 53%, a similar outcome was seen in membranous with declines in proteinuria, PLA2 antibodies and a stabilization of GFR. The drug was generally well tolerated. As Reshma indicated, the RAINIER style is going on and coming to conclusion sometime next year. And we're just about ready to get started up with the OLYMPUS Phase III trial in membranous. So thanks a lot. Love to hear some questions from you.
We'll next go to Rich, please.
So again, good evening, Rich Lafayette from Stanford. Great to see most of you again. So you heard this fabulous data coming along. You forgot your thank you to all of your colleagues and friends, Jim, it's very, very mean of you. So again, it's great to be with you just have this long-standing interest in glomerular disease, and autoimmune disease and thinking about moving forward to actually treating and stalling the progression of kidney disease and never having to worry about the intricacies, the morbidity and mortality of end-stage kidney disease, transplant is fascinating, but wouldn't it be great if we never had to really think about replacing kidneys because they continued to work.
So the kind of data that Jim just showed you is completely pivotal in this field to not only achieve all of your dreams, you have immune complex disease, you can show in the blood that those causes of the immune complexes are being well controlled. You can look in the urine and see that signs of kidney inflammation are improved by resolution of hematuria. You can see a dramatic reduction of proteinuria which is our best predictor that the kidney function is going to stay stable and better yet in this study, the kidney function is indeed completely stable.
So everything you would want to achieve is there, plus it's a well-tolerated once-a-month shot of a small volume that's tolerable with an infection profile that looks like the background population and no laboratory risks. So given that, you, of course, want to move forward with a way to show that, that data is absolutely reproducible, and that's what RAINIER is all about. And as mentioned, RAINIER is a pivotal trial for povetacicept, the registrational trial, which is well powered to demonstrate both a clinically and statistically significant reduction in proteinuria and the same clinical and statistically significant stabilization of GFR. And if the GFR changes anything approaching the perfect stability of the RUBY-3, then that's going to be a well overpowered study. So it's super cool. This Phase III study takes patients with biopsy-proven IgA nephropathy at high risk of progression, more than 1 gram of protein a day despite optimized background therapy of at least RAS inhibitors. And as you heard, this increasing number of patients who will be on SGLT2 inhibitors as well.
Again, there -- they can have a urine creatinine ratio also to predict that greater than 1 gram per day of greater than 0.75 grams per gram. And as you know, the primary endpoint is the 9-month proteinuria, which looks like it's predicted to do very well and the confirmatory criteria will be the 2-year change in GFR slope. And then we will look at other biomarkers. We'll look at what happens in galactose-deficient IgA1. We'll look at the hematuria response. We'll look at the change in GFR every way we can measure it by 2 years. And then we'll look at hard outcomes as well, looking at 30% reduction in GFR and the proportion of patients who come to dialysis, transplant or non-accidental death. So that's the study design.
What's wonderful about it of the 600 patients who are in the trial, they were offered a 2:1 randomization. We went globally to know the centers who could recruit IgA nephropathy. We have a well-balanced population as a plan by having our centers global and hopefully, we will be able to share data early like next year. So again, super excited, and the Phase II data really predicts great things here.
So I will turn it over to Brad to talk more about how that fits with our guidelines of what we're trying to achieve and our clinical knowledge of what we're trying to achieve in this disease.
So hi, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here. My name is Brad Rovin. I'm the Division Director of Nephrology at Ohio State Universe -- the Ohio State University. Just to be clear. I have a huge interest as Jim and Rich in immune-mediated glomerular diseases. And I also write guidelines. And so I guess I'm going to freestyle this a little bit. These are the -- this is sort of the money slide, if you will, as Jim puts it of the new KDIGO guidelines. But let's just talk about where we've evolved from.
So for my entire career as a nephrologist until about 3 or 4 years ago, we sort of were under the assumption that IgA nephropathy is a benign disease, don't worry about it, give them an ACE inhibitor, see them every few years and the patients are going to do well. And that -- for those of us, I think, in referral centers, which 3 of us are, that was not what we're seeing.
Most of the time patients came to us, and yes, that were seen in the community for a while, but they had impaired GFR. And lots of times, they came in with severely impaired GFR, and there was nothing left to do. And so it didn't seem to be that much of a benign disease. Then the RADAR trial came along, which is really a registry from the U.K. and showed that patients that had reductions in proteinuria down below 1 gram still had a substantial risk to progress to end-stage kidney disease. Then lots of other studies came out, including ones in the United States, Germany and Sweden. sort of confirming these data.
So one of the new things that the KDIGO guidelines are -- and do you all know what KDIGO means, kidney disease improving global outcomes. So these are our kidney guidelines. Every society has their own guidelines. But anyway, the bottom line is that we now realize that this is not a benign disease, and we need to be much more vigilant, and so we started working on when we should start to take care of patients with IgA nephropathy and really be serious about it and also what the endpoint or goal of IgA nephropathy treatment is.
And of course, we use proteinuria as Rich and Jim said, is a surrogate marker of clinical outcome, but we're not treating a disease for proteinuria alone. What we want is that we hope that we treat the disease and the proteinuria will resolve, and that's our biomarker. It's not a very good biomarker as it turns out, and we know this from many other glomerular diseases, but it's what we have to work with now. So the first thing we did in the KDIGO guideline was substantially lower the goal of where we wanted proteinuria to be. So instead of less than 1 gram per day, we wanted the proteinuria to be as low as it could go. So sort of, for sure, less than 500 milligrams, but even better if we can do it. And so that's one of the goals of therapy.
The second goal of therapy always has been, but never was available to us, how can we intervene in the pathologic process that causes IgA nephropathy. So you've heard the 4-hit hypothesis. It's a reasonable start. It's probably not the right answer. There's probably more involvement, but we certainly know that lots of parts of the immune system are involved, not the least of which are antibodies and antibodies against aberrant antibodies and immune complex deposition which initiates glomerular injury, that invokes other parts of the -- other injury mechanisms that promote kidney decline in patients with IgA nephropathy.
And the real watershed point for us, I think, was a public-private partnership mediated really through the kidney health initiative from the ASN, where the FDA and a bunch of us got together and said, how can we do trials in this disease that don't take a really long time to where we see end-stage kidney disease. And that's where we got the accelerated approval format based on proteinuria with a follow-up of glomerular filtration rate or kidney function.
And historically, that is one of the most important sort of events in the history of now what we see as IgAN drug development. That really promoted a lot of smart people at pharma, working with folks like us to develop drugs to intervene. So now for the first time, we have drugs that intervene immunologically, besides glucocorticoids. And I'm not here to bad mouth glucocorticoids, but why not?
But I treat a lot of young folks with lupus, lupus nephritis and no one likes steroids. Well, it's not true. One of my patients loves it. She keeps asking me for steroids. But anyway, most people don't like it because of all the acute side effects and they don't even know what they're getting into with the chronic damage that it causes. So we wanted something that would be reasonable and something that would be attacking a precise part of the immune system.
And now we have these drugs. And I think the BAFF APRIL inhibitors or blockers are really emblematic of where we wanted to go with this. So when we redesigned the KDIGO guidelines, we realized that we now have several drugs that were coming down the pike, and we only did the guidelines up to what was approved, okay? And we know we're behind. and we're going to fix it. And we know that some of the BAFF APRIL are going to get approved shortly, and this will hopefully go up for PDUFA date very soon or file for it. And we will revise these as much real-time as possible.
But the goal of the guidelines of IgAN treatment has become, tackle the immunologic disease and try to intervene in the pathways of injury that are causing the initial part of IgA nephropathy, get rid of the antibodies and the autoantibodies that are involved. Rich and Jim and I did a study a long time ago. We thought about this a long time ago. We did anti-CD20. Let's get rid of all the antibodies, and we were sure that was going to work in IgA. Not only did it not work, we didn't even get rid of galactose-deficient IgA at that point.
So clearly, the companies that were going for BAFF and APRIL, which, of course, is hitting the B cell, we're taking a risk because there is always already a precedent that this might not work. And instead of not working, it was, as you see, spectacular. And that's the only word I can use to describe it. And just for full disclosure, I don't do consulting with Vertex, okay? I was not part of this trial. I saw the data today when Jim presented it. And I said -- I was next to my junior faculty member, and I said, "What the hell is this?" This is like unbelievable.
And I think that should be a reaction because as Jim has emphasized and as Rich has emphasized, we don't see many therapies, which prevent the decline in GFR. okay? That's like unprecedented. And these declines in proteinuria are also unprecedented. And I work on a lot of different glomerular diseases, and I certainly would like to start bringing these drugs to other diseases because you left a blank spot as to other B-cell-mediated diseases. It turns out a lot of our kidney diseases are B cell mediated.
So if you're thinking about current and the future because I hear you're all smart business people, you should be thinking about what else this can be applied to. There's a whole bunch of stuff. I digress the guidelines. So the guidelines are broken up into 2 formats. What we normally see what -- he's my fishing partner, and it's remarkable that not either of us have drowned yet, when we go fishing together. Okay. I have pictures for the audience later.
Anyway, the other thing we realized that's very true for places like the United States where we don't really screen for disease is when we see patients with IgA nephropathy, most often, they also have chronic kidney disease by the time we see them. So we realized with the armamentarium of new drugs, we have the ability to treat both the chronic kidney disease and now the immunologic disease in parallel. And so we made this sort of new idea or algorithm, which is simultaneously to start treating the chronic kidney disease and prevent further progression of damage to the kidney by the processes that have already been initiated by IgA nephropathy.
So that's one side of the diagram. And you can think about the drugs that are doing that. And I'll just name them, and I don't consider them competitor drugs, so I don't feel bad about naming them, but the Atrasentans and the Sparsentans that are controlling the hemodynamics and some of the other mediators that are sort of set into process with the deposition of the immune complexes. At the same time, and most importantly is we want to stop the IGA process. And so we say to start simultaneously the initiation of a modulating therapy, a disease-modifying therapy.
And what are the current disease-modifying therapies that are approved for IgA nephropathy? Nothing. Well, steroids. I mean, steroids -- systemic steroids are not approved for IgA nephropathy. They have the potential for disease modification, in that they do decrease galactose-deficient IgA. We know that Nefecon is out there, and it is a steroid gut associated and that is right now our -- currently our only disease-modifying therapy. And I don't want to compare drugs or anything, but this will fit into the disease-modifying therapy window very nicely.
And then when we get questions, we can talk about where we think this is going to fit in the hierarchy of the paradigm, I'm sure you guys are curious as to our thoughts on this. So we want to start both simultaneously. We want to arrest the disease, and then we want to continue treating the chronic kidney disease that most of these patients have from the beginning. If you go to Asia, for example, Japan screens kids for hematuria and looks for IgA nephropathy early on. If they start treating the patients early, they may not have chronic kidney disease, so they may only need to treat the immunologic disease.
Nonetheless, I don't know why any of us think that we have an immune-mediated disease, and we don't need to treat it. You would never say to me, "Oh, it's a lupus patient." Well, we know it's immune-mediated, them on an ACE inhibitor and we'll see how they do a few months later because by then, they may be ready for dialysis. Yes, IgA is a more slow-moving disease. So we have a little bit of discretionary time, but I think my motto is time is nephrons. and that's what I use in a lot of my lectures, I would like to start this very early on.
So that's why this algorithm was started. And so you can see now maybe how this is going to be modified with new drugs as they become approved. The KDIGO guidelines only talk about drugs that have been approved and for which we have evidence but you can tell that we might be able to fold in the B-cell inhibitors very nicely on the side of the diagram talking about immunologic disease. And we know that other drugs coming down the pike may actually like the complement inhibitors inhibit after the injury has started some of the damage to the kidney.
So this invoked a flurry of unhappy activity and letters to us when we put it out for public review. I think the community needs to be educated. We're doing -- trying to do a very thorough job of educating our community because I think we're a little bit naive in the nephrology world. We haven't had therapies in the past to do this. and we stand to be fairly conservative and traditional. And I would suggest to you that we can actually, with these new drugs, modify for our patients what's happening in a profoundly important way and that's the message we need to get out, and I think we're doing it. So is this sufficient? Should I stop here? Oh, he wants me to stop. Okay.
Thank you to all 3 of you. Thank you.
Dr. Brad, Dr. Lafayette and Dr. Tumlin, we have about 30 minutes for your questions now. We'll start in the room. We have a few online. Anybody -- we get a mic right here, please.
2. Question Answer
Carter Gould, Cantor Fitzgerald. Thank you for hosting this, Vertex. This was very helpful. Nice weekend. Maybe for the doctors. Maybe just following on like the last line of conversation around some of the inertia in the community. How important is showing stable eGFR or even improvement in eGFR and really disrupting that inertia in the community and sort of waking up the field?
Let me take a quick stab at that. So great question. So most of us, all 3 of us here, trained on what's broadly called the Brenner hypothesis, Barry Brenner famous Division Director at Brigham. And he had this postulate that if your GFR fell below 65, you were done. And there were compensatory mechanisms indicated that led to a nexible decline toward dialysis, irrespective of what you did. And that dogma persisted for 40 years is just patently untrue.
And to your point, the question that you're asking is, and I think this is embarrassed pointing out there's been almost a philosophical change among nephrologists in the last 5 years that this idea that if you get a young lady with IgA nephropathy and she has 25 GFR, which would have been considered a death sentence 5 years ago, if you could flatten that curve, person can do pretty well with 25 m; of clearance. And so this becomes an objective in itself. A lot of times, unfortunately, physicians have a period of fatalism. They'll get this down to a certain point and say, "I'm sorry, ma'am, there's nothing can be done for you" and prepare her for dialysis. This opens the door to flat GFRs in a completely different paradigm.
Yes. And I just want to emphasize that, that's really the key thing to your question is getting that word out to not tolerate loss of kidney function, particularly in IgA nephropathy, where we now have tools, multiple tools that in a good number of patients because not everything works for everybody, but that you really -- that's got to be your goal. And that's why the guidelines are so strong. And those are the parts of getting the goal that is going to be the first lesson. And I do think we can get that out there relatively quickly.
I want to add just one real quick thing before Brad jumps in. In one of the previous trials, and I'm not sure how much I can actually say, but in one of the previous -- in the delayed-release budesonide, to put this into context, the placebo group in that study had an annualized decline of 9 ml per minute per year, which was what is that? 3x what was seen even in the membranous group and even less so among this. So this -- so that's why Brad took the time to say, we just don't see this. And it truly is -- and the rest of -- 3 of us have been trying to figure out why this has been going on? We don't know. But I have some thoughts, but I'll share with you later. But it's a very -- it's fascinating from a biologic standpoint as well.
So I want to answer your question in a different way that I think will be relevant to everyone in the room. You are looking at the development of drugs that are coming down the pike faster than we've ever seen in nephrology. And these are drugs that are basically foreign to most nephrologists, and it's just not in IgA. The same thing is happening in lupus and to a lesser extent in some of the other diseases. And so we, as a community, have developed -- were all part of a society called the International Society of Glomerular Diseases. It's fairly newly formed. And one of our first tasks was to start to put together glomerular disease centers of excellence, where people like us are throughout not the country, but the world. and we will have special expertise in these kinds of diseases. And we don't want to impinge or take patients away from the nephrologists out in the real world. But in my own practice, obviously, a university practice, we have dialysis physicians and general nephrologists and GN doctors. We have a whole GN clinic.
When one of my partners sees a patient that has GN, they refer them to us to take care of. Just like if you have cancer, you go to a cancer hospital. And so we're in the process now of working out and we have a white paper ready to go, the criteria to be a glomerular disease center of excellence. And with that, we have lots of qualifying criteria to get these things up, running and certified. And so to get the word out will be much easier with these concentrated foci of people dedicated to these diseases because the disease field has become so complicated, it's hard for the general nephrologist who spends 80% of their time on dialysis to actually make the conversion and keep up with the literature. And we think this is a huge step forward for the care of our patients. So we're very excited about that. So I am absolutely optimistic and I'm not an optimistic guy, if you know me. I am absolutely optimistic that we are going to solve the problem that you said very quickly.
Adam?
I really appreciate it. This is Adam on for Jess. JPMorgan. Just a few from me. What's the best way to think about the placebo response that we might expect in the RAINIER study? And then if I ask another one for the RUBY-3, Can you speak on the circulating immunoglobulin data as of this latest cut? And was it similar to what we saw before?
Let's split that into 2 questions. Let me ask Dr. Lafayette to tackle RUBY -- I'm sorry, to tackle RAINIER and then I'll ask you Dr. Tumlin to tackle RUBY-3. Dr. Lafayette.
Yes. So I think great pains have been taken for RAINIER to really get a stable population. So again, the criteria and the site selection is one that you're going to really choose patients who meet the inclusion criteria. Again, that opportunity to have them on stable background therapy, particularly to lock in the RAS inhibitors and SGLT2 inhibitors really makes the likelihood of a substantial placebo effect low. Now proteinuria is variable. And so you still -- even though I would expect a single-digit proteinuria change in the placebo patients, you have to build in your risk analysis for as high as 10% or 15%. But this proteinuria response that Pove has been showing is so spectacular that it should do well. And then you always build in the idea that there's maybe that same placebo part response to the active therapy group as well. So I don't think there's any significant likelihood, especially with the way that the study is powered, that a slightly more robust placebo response will make -- will cloud anyone's judgment about the efficacy of the drug.
The second question was in RUBY-3, tell you a little bit more about immunoglobulins. Dr. Tumlin.
Yes. So the -- that's a question we've gotten a lot. And so the protocol because when the drug was first came out, remember that there was a context that are similar but not the same drug called atacicept had a signal of infection in a lupus study that was done. And so appropriately, everybody was concerned about over immunosuppression with this new class of drugs as you're feeling your way around it. So they did a rather rigorous endpoint so that if your IgG levels drop below 300, you only have a single episode of that, and then that drug was held until there was a restoration of that IgG level.
If you fell below 150, you were removed from the study. And so just to give you an idea, the recovery rate of that IgG was very rapid, and this is at the 80-milligram dose. At the higher doses, there were more incidents of it, but in a way, that's kind of moved because we're not going to the 240 dose in IgA. Moreover when you compare that to some of the other previous studies of atacicept, they had to have sequential levels of IgG below 300 before they held the drug. So it's a matter of rigor and where they were in the development of the drug.
Sadia?
Sadia Rahman on behalf of Mohit, Wells Fargo. So I wanted to get your thoughts on the EGFR trending up to plus 3 ml per minute in this trial. Do you see a mechanistic explanation for an EGFR improvement in IgA nephropathy and maybe greater benefit than what some of the other B-cell agents are showing in their trials. And even if the agents ultimately do look similar in the controlled trials out to 2 years, how do you expect Pove could differentiate given increased potency maybe further out or on other endpoints?
Why don't we split that into 2 questions? Dr. Tumlin, maybe I could ask you to comment on the plus 3.2, which has caught a lot of attention and then maybe Dr. Lafayette and Dr. Rovin, maybe you want to comment a little bit on how do you see these drugs shaking out?
So it's a really great question. And I sort of alluded to the fact that the 3 of us have been trying to -- what? How does this happen, right? And so -- there's a lot of things to remember, a lot of things are speculation that no one knows the answer to. Let's make sure that's really clear. We do not -- I don't know why this GFR stabilize in comparison to budesonide, where you saw a 6 ml per minute year drop over time. So what could it be?
Well, it's important to remember that one of the functions in the mesangial cell within the glomerulus, these are myoepithelial cells. So the body has the ability to increase and decrease the volume of the glomerulus, or the glomerular surface area in real time. And these are under the control of ANG2, aldosterone, norepinephrine, endothelium, all these vasoconstrictive hormones can vasoconstrict that. This is what I find attractive about this idea. This is a dynamic and rapid process. And you see that GFR flattening within 3 months. That's not likely to be a hematologic event. We thought about some other ideas. Not -- so I think that's one answer. The main answer is we don't know, but is super exciting.
He meant hemodynamic effect.
What did I say?
Hematologic.
Hematologic.
Hemodynamic. Just -- not to confuse.
Dr. Lafayette, any comments on how you see the various agents being differentiated as you think about RAINIER?
Yes. I think we're going to have to watch for complete data sets. I think there's tremendous strength that we have 5 agents that are B-cell modulators that very effectively reduce galactose-deficient IgA and that each one of them are showing spectacular safety. Each one is showing a nice effect on proteinuria and hematuria and all are looking marvelous at stabilizing GFR. So it makes it extraordinarily unlikely that this Phase II data is a fluke and that will not get recreated in Phase III. So that's the first thing.
Then I know you guys are poised and waiting to ask about BAFF plus APRIL versus APRIL alone. So I'm not going to worry about the hazards of jumping in there. Again, with this Pove study, you're seeing beautiful better reduction in proteinuria, but to be fair, it's not placebo-controlled, and you know that in the audience. You're seeing this uptick in GFR. And I would say that my colleague was right. It may well be a hematologic effect. By that mean a reduction of inflammation in the kidney may make those glomerular cells and tubular interstitial cells focus better.
Dr. Rovin sees that all the time when we treat acute lupus nephritis. We see that when we treat other acute diseases. So even though he's right, we don't know because we haven't done the test and the biopsy studies later will maybe reveal that, but that will be very exciting. So I think the BAFF APRIL part is great biological rationale to think again, BAFF and APRIL both control plasma cell tone and antibody production. BAFF by itself has been a very effective hormone to block in other immune diseases. So it's very, very appealing to believe that with the safety that we're seeing that, that will accumulate greater benefit over time. But obviously, the devil is going to be in really being able to show you guys and the doctors and the patients that there is a differentiator.
Again, we didn't meet with the others, the fact that this is a very tiny dose once a month. It gets down to patient preference, patient-reported outcomes. And I think that's a really critical differentiator here. and that certainly favors the development. So I think those are issues. And then you guys know because many of us had conversations and Vertex knows that there's great power in sales force, advertising, patient and community relationships. And if there's not in the end, clear differentiation, those things are what wins the battle at the end of the day, together with insurance regulation and sort of whether somehow the insurance intermediary has a better deal with one company than the other, but that again is company management. So that's an initial list and to head off further questions.
Can I talk about mechanism?
Please. I think there's a question down here.
Okay. You had asked something about mechanistic. And as Jim said, we've been thinking hard about this. But let's take a page a little bit out of lupus and lupus nephritis. We've been using belimumab, which is a BAFF antagonist for a long time. And then when we tested it in lupus nephritis, I was involved in that trial. And one of the most amazing things I saw was that it preserved GFR. So now here's a B-cell drug, and it's a pure BAFF. There's no APRIL involvement here, that's preserving GFR. And I did a lot of reading about BAFF and what it can do. And so it has some effects on fibrosis.
You wouldn't expect that to occur very quickly in a setting that would be more long term. But if you go back really far to the initial animal experiments with taking away or creating animals whose B cells don't make antibody but are still around and put them in a mouse that gets lupus in general, these mice don't develop antibodies, but they still develop kidney injury, which suggests that the B-cell in and of itself even without the antibody production is relevant to the pathogenesis of disease.
Okay. So putting down the B cells, if you will, with a BAFF APRIL inhibitor, and I'm leaning on the BAFF side now, may actually be important in maintaining glomerular and/or tubular function. So that's my current -- and you understand this is my opinion. I don't have data for this. But we are trying -- we're struggling in a good way. It's a good struggle to figure out what's going on with this. But it's clear. I don't think it's a fluke because all of these drugs are showing the same thing. So this is not a Phase II trial fluke in my opinion. And you wanted to know positioning or you...
I think there's a question here and we haven't heard just yet. Let's see where we go.
Ananda Ghosh from H.C. Wainwright. Two questions on the trial and some regulatory aspects and then one on commercial. Maybe the first one, how do the baseline characteristics and event rates of RAINIER compared with the RUBY-3? Then a quick follow-up. And how do you look at the hard endpoints when you look at the current competitive landscape? How important are the -- getting it right with respect to the hard endpoints? And how closely proteinuria reduction correlates with the improvement in hard endpoints from the historical trials? That's the second question.
And maybe third one is a quick follow-up. A lot of posters on currently approved drugs, not kind of getting to where it should be in terms of penetrants. So how exactly Vertex is thinking about it, especially given that IgAN is kind of a silent disease also. So there is an issue with kind of identifying who are actually getting the disease. So 3.
Okay. Let's break that up into 2 questions. I'll come back and talk about how Vertex is thinking about commercializing. But let me break that apart from -- the first question was about twofold. How do you think about proteinuria and the GFR endpoint and then proteinuria and the hard endpoints. And just so that everyone is following the plot. In renal medicine, there is an acceptance by the FDA for proteinuria to be a regulatory enabling endpoint for accelerated approval. Because many kidney diseases, including IgAN, the time to go all the way to the "hard endpoint" of time to dialysis, death or transplantation can be decades, the FDA and other regulatory agencies around the globe has accepted that the slope of GFR is the acceptable final endpoint. So what you're going to see in the RAINIER trial is proteinuria and then the final endpoint is going to be the GFR slope.
Rich, do you want to talk about your -- how you see proteinuria to GFR and then GFR to hard endpoints.
Yes. So first, let me just confirm that the design of RAINIER is a very, very similar population as that in RUBY-3. So again, it's not like we're trying to compare apples and oranges, it's apples and apples. So very, very similar populations. There's likely to be even higher proportion of patients on SGLT2 inhibitors where studies are showing consistently that these agents and in RUBY-3, will I'm not sure that you examined whether the results are the same in SGLT2 inhibitors or not, but others have shown these drugs are still effective. So that's first thing.
The second about proteinuria is that, again, it is an accepted likely endpoint. That's why it's there for accelerated approval. But one of the very, very important points is that it is a benefit to patients with IgA nephropathy to reduce proteinuria, and it's very clear that reductions of greater than about 25% to 30% will effectively predict benefits on GFR. But crucially, every drug that gets the same degree of proteinuria is not appearing to get the same benefit on that GFR preservation. And that's what's so exciting here is that for, yes, even better proteinuria reduction, but if it were the same, the GFR stability of not slowing progression from as Jim said, 6 to 8 to having it, which is very nice, but going from 6 and 8 to not progressing at all, it means instead of doubling your time to dialysis and saying, "Well, it's going to go on 6 years. So thank you. I'm going to go on 12." That's great.
But when you're 30 years old, and you can tell someone if you maintain your response in this drug, you're never in your life going to need dialysis or have advanced chronic kidney disease and its complications, that's why it's spectacular, and we're smiling. So different agents, different mechanisms give us different relationships between proteinuria and GFR. And it's not that it was wrong, that proteinuria is not a good predictor. It's just it's different based on how you get there.
Let me just add a little bit to what Rich is saying. This is not a new concept. In the lecture set that I have, this goes all the way back to [indiscernible] group at the Rochester in 1997. And what's remarkable with that paper is the same as [indiscernible] paper from Toronto, which is the same from the RADAR data. Basically, if you're a nephrotic range, you have about a 50% to 60% chance of going on to dialysis within 5 years. And so how we missed this all this time is a whole another discussion. And so to Rich's point, getting the protein down has a tremendous effect and what Reshma earlier mentioned this administrative change is what really opened the door. Instead of going on to a slow disease, it takes 10 to 15 years to see the GFR change using the surrogate protein has become acceptable.
On commercialization, maybe 3 points to make. The first, just to set the stage, I do expect that the first module will go in before the end of the year '25. I expect that we'll complete the filing for accelerated approval in the first half of next year. We've decided to use one of our pediatric vouchers and that guarantees a priority review, reducing the review period from 10 months to 6 months. So I expect that you can do the math there and the time lines for when this medicine will be approved.
Second, this fits our approach for commercializing in specialty markets to a T. There's about 7,000, 8,000 nephrologists in the U.S., the accelerated approval and the time lines I just provided is for U.S. and then it will be the 2-year GFR endpoint for Europe. So in the U.S., it's about 7,000, 8,000 nephrologists and the vast, vast majority of patients with IgA nephropathy are seen at about 5,000 nephrologists or so. We expect that a sales force about 150 people or so will serve this patient population. And of course, we have additional medicines coming hopefully for AMKD for ADPKD, and there is synergy and overlap there.
With regard to differentiation, I think we've already covered those points. I do think the safety and efficacy are clearly first and foremost. And the physicians are going to want to assess benefit risk. But again, I would not underestimate the importance of how the medicine is going to be administered in a chronic biologics market. It is critically important to have a format, a dosing interval and a volume of administration that fits for a patient to be able to take this for a long time.
And market research, it's not actually rocket science, but market research also confirms once a month is preferred to more frequently than that. Small volume is preferred to more volume. No patient is going to get -- tell you, yes, please administer 2 ml in 2 different injections. They're going to ask for the smallest volume with the smallest needle and an auto-injector. And for the -- for povetacicept, you should expect an auto-injector at home, it's 0.46 ml of dosing and its once-monthly subcu. Those studies to do human factors, engineering, et cetera, those have also been completed and will be filed with the BLA that we were just talking about.
Susie, I still see 5 minutes on the clock, so we can get a couple of more questions in. Any other questions?
We had 1 e-mailed in, perhaps more for you. If you -- or for the physicians comment on how the data today increases your confidence and RAINIER for IgAN, anticipated accelerated approval timing as well as for the pipeline beyond?
Yes. One of the really important elements of time just simply passing is that we have more patients enrolled. We have the opportunity to see what the enthusiasm of the sites and the physicians are and it's obviously high given how quickly it was enrolled, and because we use our voucher and we secured rolling review, the confidence is very high, as uncertain that there will be a 6-month review expecting that the results will be supportive. So time going by is extremely helpful in that regard.
With the other programs, time going by has a similar profile. For membranous, we are at that point where we're starting the pivotal trial, which means we now have the data what Dr. Tumlin showed you was a subset of the full data set. So you should expect that there will be more presentations at upcoming renal meetings for those data. And so more time going by just gives you more ability to look at the data, which, of course, increases confidence because the sample size goes up.
On AMKD, we have already passed that magical point of interim analysis enrollment. That is a huge milestone. That study was hard to enroll. And we've talked about the fact that, that study would be hard to enroll because unlike in CF, for example, where there is universal newborn screening, that is 100% not the case in AMKD. And so the fact that we were able to get that study enrolled and increase genotyping rates has been really great.
ADPKD slightly different stage. That one is just started in Phase II. So I hope by this time next year, we'll have enrolled that trial when we will have data to share. But the fact is that we have completed Phase I, the PK is very well behaved. The safety looks good, and that is very important for a molecule that is about to enter Phase II.
I think that's a good place to call it. Dr. Rovin, Dr. Lafayette, Dr. Tumlin, thank you so much. Thank you to the disease strategy teams from Vertex that are here and my colleagues, Miroslava Minkova and Kristin Hodous from IR. Thank you all. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Special Call - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good day, and welcome to the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Susie Lisa. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good evening, all. My name is Susie Lisa, and as the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, it is my pleasure to welcome you to our third quarter 2025 financial results conference call. On tonight's call, making prepared remarks, we have Dr. Reshma Kewalramani, Vertex's CEO and President; Duncan McKechnie, Chief Commercial Officer; and Charlie Wagner, Chief Operating and Financial Officer. We recommend that you access the webcast slides as you listen to this call. The call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.
We will make forward-looking statements on this call that are subject to the risks and uncertainties discussed in detail in today's press release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements, including, without limitation, those regarding Vertex's marketed medicines for cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, beta thalassemia and moderate to severe acute pain, our pipeline and Vertex's future financial performance are based on management's current assumptions. Actual outcomes and events could differ materially. I would also note that select financial results and guidance that we will review on the call this evening are presented on a non-GAAP basis.
I'll now turn the call over to Reshma.
Thanks, Susie. Good evening all, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Vertex delivered strong performance across the board in Q3 with $3.08 billion in revenue, reflecting double-digit growth versus Q3 2024. As we continue to extend our leadership in CF, we're also diversifying our revenue base by product and by geography with the growing global momentum of CASGEVY and the broad uptake JOURNAVX and acute pain across a wide range of prescribers pain types and settings of care, Concurrently, we are forward planning for the fourth vertical of Vertex's growth. centered on renal diseases and povetacicept in multiple indications, starting with Pove in immunoglobulin A nephropathy or IgAN. Moving to the pipeline and starting with CF. Our long-standing goals in CF have been threefold: one, bring forward a medicine that can treat CF patients who make some amount of CFTR protein. Two, bring forward a medicine that restores CFTR function to normal levels as measured by sweat chloride and to do so from as early in life as possible. So patients have the potential to live a long and healthy life like people who carry just one CF [ allele ]; and three, bring forward a medicine for the last 5% of CF patients who do not make any CFTR protein at all. .
We are making progress on all 3 fronts. First, ALYFTREK treats more mutations than TRIKAFTA. The number of patients newly eligible for CFTR modulator that treats the underlying cause of their disease is approximately 400 more patients in the U.S. and approximately 4,000 more patients in the EU than TRIKAFTA. In total, 95% of all patients are eligible or will be eligible for ALYFTREK as we make our way to lower age groups. Second, ALYFTREK, which launched in the U.S. late last year and is launching in Europe now has seen a strong response from patients and physicians who are excited for a once-daily medicine that can bring sweat chloride levels down in patients ages 6 plus to the lowest levels achieved of any CFTR modulator in this age group, 2 additional points to make on sweat chloride. We recently completed the pivotal study for TRIKAFTA for the 1- to 2-year patient population and the results are remarkable. The study's primary endpoint was safety and the data were consistent with the established safety profile of this medicine.
The secondary endpoint was reduction in sweat chloride. The baseline sweat chloride was about 100 millimoles per liter, and over the course of the 24-week study, there was a mean reduction of more than 70 millimoles per liter from baseline through week 24. Furthermore, nearly 70% of patients in the study achieved levels of sweat chloride below the 30 millimole per liter threshold the level considered normal. This magnitude of sweat chloride improvement is unprecedented, and the largest reduction we have seen with any CFTR modulator in any population to date. We are on track to make global regulatory submissions for TRIKAFTA in this population of 1 to 2 year olds in the first half of 2026. Additionally, as we serially innovate, we continue to develop new CFTR regimens with the aim of reaching our long-standing objective of bringing the majority of patients of any age with CF to normal levels of sweat chloride. As I just discussed with the TRIKAFTA 1- to 2-year-old study, we are already there in our youngest patients. And in our ALYFTREK Phase III study of 6-11 year-olds, more than 50% of patients got to normal levels of sweat chloride VX-828, our NextGen 3.0 CFTR corrector is the most efficacious we have ever studied in vitro to enter the clinic.
I am pleased to share we have now initiated the CF cohort in the VX-828 study. And third, regarding our final goal, VX-522, which we're developing for the 5,000 or so patients who cannot benefit from our CFTR modulators, we have resumed enrollment and dosing in the MAD portion of that Phase I/II study. Moving then to pain. In acute pain, during the quarter, we completed enrollment in 2 Phase IV trials evaluating JOURNAVX initiated preoperatively and as part of multimodal approaches to acute pain management. The interim analysis for one study will be shared at a medical conference later this week, and top line results for JOURNAVX show safety and efficacy, consistent with the pivotal program. Accompanied by substantial reductions in opioid use following aesthetic or reconstructive procedures with approximately 90% of participants being opioid-free compared to less than 10% after similar procedures per the literature. In neuropathic pain, the first DPN Phase III study is well underway, and we have completed work that sets up the initiation of the second DPN Phase III study later this month. Transitioning now to the kidney portfolio. Renal Medicine is experiencing a renaissance in drug development, and Vertex seeks to be a leader in the field. With our differentiated R&D approach, grounded in causal human biology, validated targets and biomarkers that translate, we have a broad portfolio of innovative therapies with transformative potential for patients with serious kidney diseases.
Our clinical pipeline has first-in-class or best-in-class assets for 4 kidney diseases. 3 of which are already in or approaching pivotal development. VX-407 for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, or ADPKD, and inaxaplin for APOL1-mediated kidney disease or AMKD pove for IgAN and pove for primary membranous nephropathy. Starting with VX-407 ADPKD, where the Phase II proof-of-concept study was initiated earlier this quarter. Recall, there are approximately 300,000 patients with ADPKD in the U.S. and Europe. These patients have limited treatment options and no approved therapies that treat the underlying cause of this disease. We believe that up to 10% of patients with ADPKD may be eligible for treatment with VX-407, a first-in-class small molecule protein folding corrector. VX-407 is designed to target the root cause of ADPKD by restoring PC1 protein function. This Phase II proof-of-concept study is a single-arm trial of 24 patients that evaluates the effect of VX-407 on height adjusted total kidney volume.
The second kidney program to highlight is inaxaplin for primary AMKD, a disease that affects 150,000 patients in the U.S. and EU. Enrollment in the interim analysis cohort of the amplitude pivotal study has completed. The patients in this cohort are now being treated for 48 weeks, after which we will conduct the interim analysis. And if positive, we will be poised to submit for potential accelerated approval in the U.S. Additionally, we are running the amplified study, which is a Phase II proof-of-concept study of inaxaplin in patients with AMKD with moderate proteinuria or patients with AMKD and diabetes populations not being studied in the amplitude trial. AMPLIFIED is on track to complete enrollment by the end of this year.
Now turning to povetacicept. The lead and first indication for pove is IgAN, a disease impacting more than 300,000 diagnosed patients in the U.S. and Europe and over 1 million patients globally. There are 4 points to highlight in this program. First, we completed enrollment of the interim analysis cohort of the RAINIER Phase III trial earlier this year. Second, the FDA has granted pove breakthrough therapy designation and and rolling review for our BLA. Third, we have completed the studies to support the launch of pove for at-home self-administration with a subcutaneous auto-injector. Lastly, the new news, I'm very pleased to share tonight is that we have completed full enrollment in the RAINIER Phase III trial. The trial enrolled approximately 600 patients in approximately 15 months, the fastest of any contemporary Phase III study in IgAN and is a testament to the significant opportunity ahead for POI Here's the outlook when you put these 4 major milestones together with the rolling review that the FDA is granted, we will begin our submission for potential accelerated approval before the end of this year.
Once the interim analysis cohort completes 36 weeks of treatment, assuming the results are positive, we will complete our BLA submission for potential accelerated approval in the U.S. in the first half of 2026. we have used a priority review voucher, and thus, we have certainty that pove's BLA in the IgAN indication will receive an expedited priority review in the U.S. That is a 6-month review versus a traditional 10-month review. Next, and consistent with this pipeline and product potential, we are pleased to have initiated the pivotal study for the second potential renal indication for pove in primary membranous nephropathy. There are approximately 150,000 patients with membranous nephropathy in the U.S. and Europe and nearly 500,000 globally. Today, there are no approved therapies that treat the underlying cause of this disease, leaving a significant patient population with high unmet need. Pove was recently granted Fast Track designation by the FDA in membranous nephropathy and our Phase II/III adaptive study [ OLYMPUS ], is now underway. One final note in R&D regarding Zimislecel in type 1 diabetes. While we have completed enrollment in the pivotal trial for T1D, we have temporarily postponed completion of dosing while we work through an internal manufacturing analysis.
As this is an ongoing pivotal trial, it is critical to maintain study integrity, and so we won't be providing any additional detail. I look forward to updating you once dosing is complete.
In closing, Vertex now has 7 commercialized medicines. Five programs in Phase III development and an exciting earlier-stage R&D pipeline. Accordingly, as we drive to achieve our R&D milestones, we're executing on the concurrent work of getting our approved medicines to more patients around the globe and preparing for additional near-term potential launches.
To tell you more about our commercial efforts, I'll now turn over the call to Duncan.
Thanks very much, Reshma. I will focus my comments tonight on the CF franchise, global launches of ALYFTREK and CASGEVY the U.S. launch of JOURNAVX and commercial planning for our potential launches in 4 serious kidney diseases, the first of which will be Pove in IgAN, Beginning with CF, our CF franchise delivered strong double-digit growth this quarter as we continue to grow the number of eligible patients taking our CFTR modulators. This reflects the ongoing launch of the ALYFTREK, progress with younger patients and patients with rare mutations, enhanced survival benefits of our therapies and expansion into new geographies, such as Brazil and Turkey. Focusing on ALYFTREK, our fifth therapy approved to treat the underlying cause of CF. We believe ALYFTREK is the best CFTR modulator available for eligible patients given that when compared to standard of care TRIKAFTA, ALYFTREK provides further improvements in CFTR function as measured by sweat chloride is indicated for additional rare mutations and offers the convenience of once-daily dosing. The U.S. launch of ALYFTREK is progressing well across all patient groups. We have seen particularly rapid uptake in those patients who are naive to CFTR modulators and the vast majority of previously untreated patients in the U.S. have now been initiated on the ALYFTREK.
We also see continued uptake by those patients who have previously discontinued one of our other CFTR modulators. Lastly, the pace of transition patients primarily those switching from TRIKAFTA remains steady and represents the majority of patients on ALYFTREK in the quarter. Outside the U.S., the early launch of ALYFTREK is off to a strong start in multiple European countries where patients have reimbursed access England, Ireland, Germany and Denmark. And the feedback has been very positive, both in terms of the clinical profile and once daily dosing. And as Reshma mentioned, there are nearly 10x as many newly eligible patients in Europe with rare mutations for TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK than in the U.S. and no additional liver monitoring requirements. Overall, we are pleased with the response to ALYFTREK and continue to expect that the majority of patients around the globe will transition to ALYFTREK over time given its multiple benefits.
Moving to CASGEVY, our transformative onetime treatment for patients with severe sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia. The momentum continues to build as we enter the last few months of 2025. As a result, we have a clear line of sight to over $100 million in CASGEVY revenue this year and significant growth in 2026. Importantly, we have seen continued progress in securing access to CASGEVY around the world, with the notable recent addition of reimbursement in Italy for TDT and SCD. Italy has the second largest population in the world of TDT patients at approximately 5,000 patients, about half of whom are eligible for CASGEVY. As further evidence of CASGEVY building momentum across all 3 regions, the U.S., Europe and the Middle East, I'm pleased to report that since launch and through the end of quarter 3, 2025 nearly 300 patients have been referred by their physicians to an ATC to initiate the treatment process.
More than 160 patients now have had their first cell collection. This includes 110 in the first 9 months of 2025, double our full year 2024 total. And a total of 39 patients have received their infusions of CASGEVY edited cells, including 10 patients in the third quarter of 2025. We see continued growth in ATC's onboarding and initiating patients in the U.S., Europe and the Middle East as the treatment teams become more familiar with the process. Through the end of September, 25 ATCs had initiated more than 5 patients and at least one ATC in each of the 3 regions had initiated 20 or more patients. Given the very well understood duration of the treatment journey and the fact that we now have significant numbers of patients at every stage in the process, CASGEVY has a strong outlook, and we are excited to serve the growing numbers of patients through the end of this year into 2026 and beyond.
Now shifting to the launch of generics in moderate to severe acute pain. We continue to see a very positive reaction to this novel non-opioid option for the treatment of moderate to severe acute pain. As a reminder, our goals in 2025 were firstly secure broad payer coverage. Secondly, ensure hospital and health system access through P&T reviews and formulary adoption. And thirdly, drive broad usage of generics across a range of physician and pain types with a seamless experience for physicians and patients alike. We are executing well on all fronts, and I'll now provide some details. We continue to make good progress with payers. As of mid-October, across commercial and government payers, over 170 million lives of reimbursed access to generics, up from the [ 150 million ] we discussed on our Q2 call. With commercial payers, our negotiations continue to progress favorably. We have formal coverage under 2 of the 3 large national PBMs and are working to add the third. In Medicare, we continue to engage with plans to secure coverage.
And for Medicaid patients through mid-October, we now have a total of 19 states, up from 16 last quarter that are providing access to generics without prior authorization or step edit requirements. We continue to expect that coverage across commercial, Medicare and Medicaid payers will expand through the balance of 2025 and into 2026. Note that even after national payers grant formal coverage for genomics, it can take time to ensure that all lives are covered in their downstream plans. Therefore, we plan to extend our patient support program, or PSP, into 2026 to ensure that if a physician makes the decision to prescribe genetics for their patient with acute pain, the patient will receive the medicine. Recall the PSP only kicks in for those patients without coverage or with highly restricted coverage. So for patient's plan reimburses genetics, the PSP program is not triggered. Secondly, we're making excellent progress with P&T committees at the approximately 150 health care systems and 2,000 hospitals we're targeting, more than 750 hospitals and approximately 90 of the 150 targeted large health care systems have now added genetics to their formularies, protocols or order sets.
Thirdly, we continue to see broad adoption of genetics by a wide range of physicians, including orthopedic surgeons, plastic surgeons, anesthesiologists, pain specialists and dentists. They're using JOURNAVX in a wide range of pain settings, including surgical and nonsurgical procedures, such as joint replacement and repair, shoulder surgeries, fractures and sprains and dental procedures. In hospital systems and clinics that have adopted JOURNAVX, we have received impressive feedback from physicians in terms of very significantly reduced or eliminated opioid usage, consistent with the Phase I study results Reshma mentioned earlier. Reports from patients also continue to be very positive in terms of how well JOURNAVX manage their pain in addition to being well tolerated. We also continue to see that JOURNAVX is promotionally responsive to our field representative calls as well as our digital engagement with physicians. There is a clear correlation between frequency of calls and depth of prescription writing by physicians. For these reasons, and as we discussed last quarter, we're planning to add 150 additional representatives in the first quarter of 2026, which will enable us to increase our frequency of calls with existing prescribers and expand our coverage to additional physicians.
And to raise awareness of JOURNAVX among consumers, we have a wide range of communication initiatives ongoing, including a partnership with basketball Superstar, Jason Tatum as he shares his genetic treatment journey experience post is [ Achilles ] injury during the playoffs last season. Finally, as evidence of the growing reception in the marketplace, there have now been more than 300,000 prescriptions filled for JOURNAVX across the retail and hospital settings as of mid-October. We continue to have high confidence that there is a significant unmet need for an effective non-opioid option to treat moderate to severe acute pain, and we're in the early days of creating another multibillion-dollar franchise for Vertex.
I'll close with some comments on our commercial planning for our potential launches in renal medicine, where we have begun the build-out of our commercialization team. We expect that our renal franchise will become a significant growth driver and value generator for Vertex over the next several years. I'll focus my comments this evening on our first step in that direction, Pove in IgAN. We believe that pove V offers a unique combination of attributes with a compelling clinical and patient profile. Firstly, pove is a fusion protein specifically engineered for better tissue penetration and to deliver optimized, targeted dual inhibition of the BAFF and APRIL cytokines. In the Ruby III clinical data we've seen to date, pove delivers substantial reductions in [ GDI GA1 ], hematuria and proteinuria. Secondly, among the APRIL only or dual BAFF APRIL inhibitors, pove has the most convenient dosing and administration for patients. Every 4 weeks at home administration via a subcutaneous auto-injector and the lowest dosage volume of less than 0.5 milliliters. And thirdly, pove is the only dual BAFF APRIL inhibitor in pivotal trials for multiple serious kidney diseases, IgAN and PMN. We believe pove has a superior mechanism of action, a superior clinical profile and will deliver a superior patient experience. In short, we believe pove holds best-in-class potential. We're excited to build out our renal franchise and prepare for commercialization in our fifth disease area with pove as a potential best-in-class treatment for IgAN.
I'll now turn the call over to Charlie to review the financials.
Thanks, Duncan. Vertex's Q3 2025 double-digit revenue growth demonstrates our consistent strong performance and attractive growth profile. Third quarter 2025 total revenue increased 11% year-over-year to $3.08 billion. U.S. revenue growth of 15% year-over-year was driven in CF by ongoing patient demand and favorable net pricing versus prior year. As well as contributions from ALYFTREK, CASGEVY and JOURNAVX. Revenue outside the U.S. grew 4% year-on-year, including mid-single-digit CF growth and a contribution from CASGEVY. Included in Q3, '25 total global revenue and the regional growth rates was $17 million of CASGEVY revenue and $20 million from JOURNAVX. Third quarter 2025 combined non-GAAP R&D acquired IP R&D and SG&A expenses were $1.28 billion compared to $1.08 billion in the third quarter of 2024.
Non-GAAP operating expenses increased 19% year-on-year, driven primarily by the continued advancement of our broad later-stage pipeline, including the acceleration of pove development programs as well as the build-out of commercial capabilities in pain. Acquired IP R&D expenses were $55 million compared to $15 million in the third quarter of 2024. Third quarter 2025 non-GAAP operating income was $1.38 billion compared to $1.31 billion in the third quarter of 2024. Third quarter 2025 non-GAAP effective tax rate was 17.6%, including benefits from R&D tax credits as a result of last year's Alpine acquisition. Third quarter 2025 non-GAAP net income was $1.24 billion compared to $1.14 billion in Q3 of '24. Third quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.80, an increase of 10% compared to $4.38 in the third quarter of 2024.
We ended the quarter with $12 billion in cash and investments after deploying approximately $1.1 billion to repurchase more than 2.7 million shares in the third quarter. Year-to-date, we have spent over $1.9 billion to repurchase approximately 4.5 million shares. Our priorities for cash deployment remain unchanged, innovation and growth fueled by investments, both internal and external, with a second priority of share repurchases. Now switching to guidance. With only one quarter remaining in 2025, we are updating our financial guidance for revenue, operating expenses and taxes. We now expect 2025 total revenue to be in a range of $11.9 billion to $12 billion versus prior guidance of $11.85 billion to $12 billion, representing growth of approximately 8% to 9% for the full year at current exchange rates. This outlook reflects our expectation for continued growth from our portfolio of CF medicines, including the ongoing launch of ALYFTREK in the U.S. and recent launches in Europe. As Duncan mentioned, full year revenue guidance also includes over $100 million of CASGEVY revenue as we treat more patients in geographies where we have secured regulatory approval and reimbursement. In addition, guidance reflects further contribution from JOURNAVX in the fourth quarter due to growing prescription volumes. We are also refining guidance for combined non-GAAP R&D acquired IP R&D and SG&A expenses and now expect operating expenses of approximately $5 billion to $5.1 billion versus prior guidance of $4.9 billion to $5 billion for the full year.
This is primarily due to the acceleration in pove development programs across multiple indications and increased investment in commercial and marketing activities to support the launch of JOURNAVX. There is no change to our estimate of approximately $100 million in projected IPR&D charges for the full year, including the recently announced collaboration with in [indiscernible] We continue to expect an immaterial cost impact from tariffs in 2025 based on what we know today due to our significant U.S. presence and our geographically diverse supply chain. Of course, given the dynamic nature of the tariff situation, including the potential for sector-specific tariffs, this outlook is subject to change.
And finally, we are lowering our expected full year 2025 non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance from a range of 20.5% to 21.5% to a revised range of 17% to 18% and to incorporate several onetime tax benefits. These benefits include those recognized in Q3 from Alpine related R&D tax credits as well as anticipated recognition in Q4 '25 of previously deferred tax benefits.
In closing, Vertex yet again delivered strong results in Q3 '25, growing and diversifying our revenue with the launch of 2 new products in the U.S., ALYFTREK and JOURNAVX, the launch of ALYFTREK in Europe and the continued global launch of CASGEVY. We also made significant pipeline progress across the portfolio in mid- and late-stage clinical development, including pove's pipeline and a product potential and continued advancement. These and other anticipated milestones of continued progress in multiple disease areas are detailed on Slide 17. We look forward to updating you on our progress on future calls.
I'll now ask Susie to begin the Q&A.
Thanks, Charlie. And apologies, we understand there were issues with the webcast. And for that, we're sorry, working with our vendor Chorus call. We'll also look to get the transcript out as soon as possible. Chuck, can you please give the Q&A instructions?
[Operator Instructions] And the first question will come from Geoff Meacham with Citibank.
2. Question Answer
I just have 2 quick ones. On ALYFTREK. Just wanted to get maybe a bit of a status update. Do you think you're hitting a tipping point with regard to kind of patient switching or those that are maybe kind of new starts and just curious about the monitoring requirement, whether that's sort of eased a little bit. And then the second thing is, as you guys look forward, Reshma, I know your nephrologist by training. So as you get closer to the pove data set. Maybe just help us with kind of how you're thinking about the differentiation here versus the many BAFF, APRIL type of assets here? I know obviously, it's data dependent. I want to get your high-level comments?
You bet. Geoff, let me ask Duncan to take the question on ALY and I'll come back for pove.
So yes, as far as ALYFTREK is concerned, I would say that the vast majority of the newly eligible patients in the U.S. have now started on ALYFTREK. And we're seeing the discontinued and transition patients transition nicely over to ALYFTREK as physicians are navigating the monitoring requirements over the first few months. The pace of transitions remain steady, and we're very happy with the progress. Outside the U.S., we're also seeing strong uptake in those countries with access. And I would add that in the 10 months since the launch of the ALYFTREK it's generated close to $0.5 billion of sales in revenue. So overall, we're pretty happy with the pace of progress on ALYFTREK.
Geoff, on pove, let me focus my comments IgAN. It is really very exciting. The data that we're going to share at the ASM, which is this coming week, is more patients' worth of data and longer follow-up. And you should look for the endpoint of proteinuria, hematuria, you should also look for the pharmacodynamic marker in IgAN, which is called Gd-IgA1. I'm very, very excited about these results. To me, if you think about IgAN and what it means, it is a chronic disease that unfortunately results in death, dialysis or transplantation, that's what ends up happening to our patients. And so what we're really trying to do here is get those autoantibodies under control in order to mitigate that end point. If you look at the disease, it's a disease of elevated APRIL levels and elevated BAFF levels. It's not the case that just one of those two cytokines is elevated. So it makes all the sense in the world to me to inhibit both, which is what pove does. The next thing to look at is the preclinical data, and you've heard me say before, the reason we were so excited about Alpine and pove because it was specifically engineered for higher tissue distribution, potency and binding affinity. And then you translate that to the early data that we see in the clinic through [indiscernible] And it looks really good. Last thing I'll say is for patients who have this a chronic disease. The important thing is that they have a medicine, a biologic that they can take over time that is best for them. And from all of the data, not only in market research for IgAN patients, but you look at biologics in the marketplace is about the dosing small volume.
It's about having an auto-injector and monthly dosing, which are key, and that's what we have with pove. Last thing to say, I do think nephrologists are also going to be interested in the fact that we've already started our Phase II/III trial in membranes. So all in all, it's pretty neat.
The next question will come from Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Just a follow-up on Jeff here with the pove data. With all those markers that we're going to look at in the longer-term Phase II data, maybe put that in context for us about how to think about the read-through to eGFR benefit and just kind of overall positioning as we look to these other 2 drugs that are out there or more? And then secondly, on the pain franchise, you talked for a bit about getting that third PBM on board prior to really opening up distribution. Could you just help us understand what's being finalized on that end?
Yes. Let me take the pove question first, Salveen, then I'll ask Duncan to comment on the last of the 3 PBMs. So Salveen in many renal diseases, including in IgAN, there's a very strong association of correlation between reductions in proteinuria and stabilization eGFR. And I expect that, that will hold up in all of these Phase III data that we see. I think the important thing to note though is that while the final end point -- that's to say even for traditional approval is eGFR showing the stabilization of eGFR. What we're really trying to do for our patients is to prevent those long-term complications of death, dialysis and transplantation, it's just that the endpoint if we measure that would take too long, so the agency has accepted eGFR stabilization of that is the fine end point. And so when you look at all of the evidence that's been generated over the course of time, the medicine that has the best reductions in proteinuria in hemotoria, in this Gd-IgA1. I think that's the medicine that's going to be best for patients. If you think about the long-term outcomes. But I do think that the association of proteinuria and eGFR will hold, and I expect that you will see that. Duncan.
Salveen, so I think it's important to note that we're building a long-term pain franchise here where, clearly, we want to secure broad access for patients, but we also want to ensure long-term value of our medicines. So we feel very happy with the progress we've made so far in securing 170 million lives for genetics in a relatively short period of time. I would say that we're in productive ongoing conversations with the third PBM. And obviously, we'll keep you updated as we have news there. And as you know, in the meantime, patients who are not covered can get genetics through the patient support program. So overall, we're pleased with the access progress to date. It will continue to expand over the balance of 2025 and 2026. And in the meantime, of course, a key performance indicator is continued physician uptake and prescription growth while we secure access. And on that point, although you didn't ask, I would just reference the prescription growth we saw 10,000 prescriptions in quarter 1, 90,000 prescriptions in quarter 2, 170,000 prescriptions in quarter 3, and of course, several thousand in October. So we're very happy with the acceleration we're seeing in prescriptions while we finalize access.
Your next question will come from Jessica Fye with JPMorgan.
I was wondering if you could just touch on what your current priorities are as it relates to capital allocation and specifically on the business development front, is there a phase of development you feel as the sweet spot for assets that Vertex brings in?
Charlie?
Yes, Jessica, no change in our priorities for capital allocation. We've said for some time now, our top priority is to reinvest in the business, both internally and externally to drive innovation and growth. That continues to be true. We are investing in our pipeline right now in commercialization. We are making capital investments in support of the business as well, and that remains the top priority. A secondary priority for us is share buybacks. We were very active in the third quarter, taking advantage of the volatility in the stock price after the last earnings call. So we were out there buying aggressively in the quarter at prices that we think are quite attractive. And so that combination of reinvestment in the business, as well as share buybacks will continue to be the priority going forward.
In terms of whether we are looking for assets of any specific stage of development, here, I think you know with our sandbox approach, we are always looking for the best technology and the best assets in any of the disease areas where we are focused. That sometimes takes the form of enabling technology. Sometimes it takes the form of programs that are either preclinical or in the clinic. We were certainly very happy with the Alpine acquisition last year. If we could find something like that again, we would certainly be interested but we are open to all types of deals that move our strategy forward in our different disease areas.
Next question will come from Evan Seigerman with BMO Capital.
I want to touch on the competitive profile, pove. We talked about having an auto-injector and Q4 week dosing. Can you put the context of how important this is maybe in relationship to other competitive products that could be on the market? And why you think this could give you a competitive advantage?
Yes. Evan, I'll take team that with Duncan said he can give you a commercial perspective. The auto-injector once-monthly dosing in small volumes are really, really important. Of course, this means we've already stopped through safety, efficacy benefit risk and a really good-looking clinical profile. But especially in diseases where you're using a biologic this administration set of features just cannot be underestimated. Now I'll turn it over to Duncan to tell you about some examples in the field and maybe some market research as well, Duncan.
Yes. Thank you for the question. So I mean, I would step back a little bit and just make the point that for a variety of reasons and attributes, we believe that pove offers best-in-class potential in terms of its mechanism of action, the way it's been specifically engineered for the disease the compelling clinical profile and then as you allude to, the patient profile, the key here is that it's dosed every 4 weeks at a very low volume. It can be administered at home. And those attributes are incredibly important, especially in biologics. They're being shown to significantly reduce patient burden, improve adherence and increased treatment satisfaction in other biologics previously launched. So -- we do think, although it sounds unimportant. Actually, this is a very important differentiator for o alongside the mechanism of action and the excellent clinical data that we're seeing. So we're super excited to be bringing it to market. And for all of those reasons, we do think it has best-in-class potential.
Your next question will come from Tazeen Ahmad with Bank of America.
Can you just provide some clarity on what the FDA had seen thus far that let them give you the confidence to start the filing early and get this breakthrough designation? For pove?
Yes, sure thing. So, we've had the opportunity to complete what's called a pre-BLA meeting. In other words, we've had the opportunity to sit with the agency, review all of the data to date, talk through what the filing submission, what's called the will look like. So they have access to all of our data and our plans for how we expect to be filing after we went through that meeting, that's when we got the breakthrough designation. It's also when we received their endorsement for rolling submission. I would say that if the reason they have granted us breakthrough enrolling is probably the same as for most medicines that get it. they see unmet need. They see a medicine that is attractive and can treat the disease at hand and that they have enthusiasm to receive the filing so that they can plan their workload.
Your next question will come from Terence Flynn with Morgan Stanley.
Great. I was just wondering, Reshma, if there's any update on the NOPAIN Act and what you guys are doing on that front. And then I know you mentioned there's some Phase IV data for JOURNAVX that's coming up here. Are we going to see anything on time to discharge setting? I know that's something that some physicians have asked about in the past?
Yes. Sure. Terence. On the no pain final list, it was supposed to be out on October 31. So last week Friday, and we understand that it's been postponed because of the government shutdown. We continue to advocate vigorously for the inclusion of JOURNAVX.An as we've talked before, while the dollar number may be small for hospital outpatient or surge center for Medicare patients. We think that the principle is really important. The NOPAIN Act was literally designed for a medicine like JOURNAVX. So we continue to have our conversations, but the list -- the finalization of that list and the release of that list has been delayed. I don't have an updated time line for when it will be out. On the Phase IV data, we've now completed enrollment in 2 Phase IV studies.
One is multimodal therapy and use prior to and post open aesthetic and reconstructive surgeries and another one is in orthopedic and general surgeries. The data that you're going to see later this week is in the aesthetic and reconstructive surgery area. And the trust of the data is about opioid reduction compared to what's seen in the literature. We have a whole host of additional studies coming that look at a variety of other endpoints, including discharge, but those data are not ready just yet.
Your next question will come from David Risinger with Leerink Partners. .
I'm dwelling on behalf of David Risinger. So 2 questions, please. For genetics, how many of the 170 million lives have unrestricted access and how many commercial lives are covered by the major PBMs. And the second question on the next-generation CF candidate VX-828. can You provide more details on the PPP news ahead and also the timing for data disclosure?
Let me take the VX-828 question first, and I'll turn it over to Duncan to talk to you about JOURNAVX. So on VX-828, the important thing to know is it is the most efficacious medicine in vitro that we had ever studied and you know that our in vitro systems in C have translated time and again, not only qualitatively but quanticatively to what we see in the clinic. So A2A is the most efficacious that we've seen so far. You should expect to see data next year. We're in the patient cohort now. I'll give you more specific time lines in the coming months, but you should see data next year. And in terms of what we're looking for, look, it is getting hard to do better than what we have today. The data that I described at TRIKAFTA 1- to 2-year-old is truly remarkable and unprecedented. But if it is possible to do better and by that, I mean bring more patients across all age groups to lower levels of sweat chloride, i.e., higher levels of CFTR protein function, that's what we are committed to do, and that's what we're looking for with Susie VX-828, Duncan a couple of words on JOURNAVX. And the 170 million lives and tell us about the kind of coverage.
Yes. So thank you for the question. So to answer it, of the 170 million lives, 113 million are unrestricted. So as I've communicated before, all of the contracts that we have done all of the agreements we have in place are for no prior authorization, no step edit. So we're very pleased indeed with that progress. And as I alluded to, in one of the earlier questions. We continue to make progress with the third PBM, where we're in active conversations and indeed with the Medicare plans as well.
Next question will come from Philip Nadeau with TD Cowen.
Two commercial questions for us. First, on JOURNAVX, based on prescription trends and the prescription numbers that you said, it seems like gross to net continues to be quite high. Can you give us a sense of where it currently is and where it could be in 2026? And then second, on ALYFTREK, you said a couple of times steady transition from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK. When do you think you'd be in a position to give formal guidance, say, 3 years from now, some percentage percentage of TRIKAFTA patients will be transitioned to ALYFTREK?
Sure thing. So let me take the second question first, and I'll turn it over to Charlie for gross to net. As you heard Duncan say, in the coming couple of years, we expect the majority of patients around the globe to JOURNAVX, TRIKAFTA to transition to ALYFTREK. Because we believe ALYFTREK is the best available CFTR modulator. Charlie, a couple of words on [indiscernible] and JOURNAVX.
Yes.il. So the 3 drivers, of course, [indiscernible] our payer discounts, wholesaler discounts and the impact of the patient support program with that last one being most significant in 2025. While we are working to expand payer coverage and finish some of the contracting work that Duncan talked about, the patient support program continues to be very active, and that's resulting in elevated gross to net for the time being. We're not yet ready to give guidance for 2026 on that until we've landed on the mix and the book of business with payers. I think it would be early to say anything about that for next year.
Your next question will come from Paul Matteis with Stifel. .
This is Julian on for Paul. Just wondering if there's any updated thinking around the potential development of suzetrigine in chronic pain following the update that you provided last quarter. Just wondering if there's any other indications you're pursuing or if there's any other way in which you're considering potentially even acquiring an asset to play in the space longer term as there's been greater interest from competitors?
Yes. The -- no new updates for you on suzetrigine in the peripheral neuropathic pain area. We are hyper-focused on getting our DPN study #2 up and running to secure the DPN indication, which -- for which there is a clear pathway concrete next steps for us to take and an ability to serve 2 million patients. With regard to our ideas for how to expand to the broader P&P market, there's a couple of things there. we're working through what we believe would be the most efficient way to get there. We're also thinking through time lines for our NaV1 inhibitors, i.e., JOURNAVX and our NaV1.7s and the possibility of combination. So more to come on that. PNP remains very interesting to us. But the focus now is on securing the DPN indication, getting the second DPN study diabetic peripheral neuropathy study up and running. And I do think that we'll be completing both those studies by the end of next year.
Your next question will come from Gena Wang with Barclays.
So maybe I would just have one quick question regarding the Poly data later this week. I know you cannot disclose anything. Regarding the actual data. But just wondering, given if we look at Vera data, they're already setting eGFR, but are pretty high, basically flat or the slow is relatively I think a slope is minus 0.1%. So here, do you think with your drug profile, do you think it could actually improve the eGFR over the longer treatment?
Yes. Gina, I do understand your question. I think -- you'll be pleased with the data that we show at ASN later this week, I certainly am. I would say the same thing that I said to Salveen reductions in premier in a number of hollogeneous renal diseases with proteinuria that translated to stabilization of eGFR. And so I think that, that will happen. I think the more important question is, over the long term, as we treat our patients with IAN or membranes and we have medicines that can get patients to lower levels of proteinuria completely eliminate if not decrease, hematuria, gets a low levels of these apparent GDI GA antibodies. I think that's where we're going to see practice move. And I think you're already seeing that with Go guidelines, for example. I won't jump ahead of the data coming at ASN, but you will see eGFR data from the povetasiset-IGAM program.
Your next question will come from Mohit Bansal with Wells Fargo.
And I would also emphasize or asked a question around the BD here. I would love to understand your thought process here given that, I mean, you said that if we find something like Bob, we would go for it. I think the only challenge is that Vertex is not a small company anymore. So maybe is there a -- is there a chance that you would look at bigger deals in that $5 billion to $10 billion range as well? Or given your cash position, do you think you would probably be nimble and small when it comes to BD at this point?
This is Reshma. sorry, sorry. I'm sorry. I think Charlie summarized it really well. Our BD strategy is very much in lockstep with our internal innovation strategy. It's all about the Sandbox diseases and our approach to R&D, high unmet need, the biomarkers that translate from bench to bedside as well as targets that are validated, be it a genetic or pharmacology efficient clinical development and regulatory pathways and specialty markets. That is the -- those are the guiding principles that have led us to where we are. And you can bet that we're going to keep going with the same. It's not about the size. It's all about fit with R&D strategy.
The next question will come from Malminzer with William Blair.
This is Jake on for Myles. I have a couple for you. First, I wanted to ask you about any updates to your DM1 program when or how much data we can expect and then sort of how you're evaluating that program given the recent acquisition of Avidity. And then on CASGEVY, can you remind us as patients are going through the process and then enrolling into this long-term follow-up study, your policy for disclosing adverse events would those be both from the preconditioning regimen or from the editing regimen or both?
Yes. Let's maybe do CASGEVY first. For all of the clinical trial patient data, whether it's in the primary, let's call it, the primary sickle cell disease and beta thal studies [ CLIN 1 ] and [ CLIN 2 ] or if it's in the long-term follow-up study, they get reported through the clinical trial system. For commercially treated patients, they get reported as physicians may report through to either the company or the FDA in the normal manner. DM1 is an exciting program for us. You might recall that the way we set up the study in order to be most efficient and fastest to pivotal development if the data are supportive, is we did a fat math directly in patients. We've completed the SaaS portion of DM1, and we're in the MAD portion now. I expect that we'll be able to complete the study and have results next year. And what that means is because we are in patients, it will be safety and efficacy. .
Last question. The last question of the day will come from William Pickering with Bernstein.
I have 2 about pove and PMN if I may. The first is if you could discuss the competitive landscape in that indication and perhaps compared to IgAN? And then the second is how you define the PMN addressable market. I think that Biogen has estimated only 36,000 patients in the U.S., which seems a bit more conservative than your combined U.S. and EU number would imply?
Yes. so with regard to members, there are some similarities between IgAN nephropathy and membranes the most compelling is that they are both B-cell mediated diseases where there's autoantibody formation and that the autoantibodies end up depositing in the kidney, which leads to the kidney dysfunction. The way that membranes and IgAN are different is clearly in prevalent. There's about 700,000 people with IgAN, for example, in China. It's a really significant disease in Asia I think the estimates are something like 300,000 in the Western world, while membranes is more like 150,000 in the Western world. The competitive landscape is also different much more competitive intensity in IgAN nephropathy, likely because it's a larger patient population. To the best of my knowledge, we're the only April bath, for example, in pivotal development for membrane. And I do think exactly for the reason that these are both be cell-mediated diseases, I think a drug like Poly has best-in-class potential in members. And in the April back class, we're in the lead because we are already initiated in the Phase II/III. I hope that helps.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.
Thanks, everyone, for joining. Apologies again for the technical issues. We'll look to have the replay up as soon as possible. And with that, Chuck, if you can give that information. Thank you.
Yes, ma'am. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. A replay of today's event will be available shortly after the call concludes by dialing 1 (877) 344-7529 or 1 (412) 317-0088. Using replay access code 101-96553. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Bank of America Healthcare Conference, our London version. I'm pleased to be kicking off the conference with our first presenting company, Vertex. Presenting for Vertex and sitting next to me is Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Susie Lisa. Susie, good morning. Thanks for flying over from Boston.
Thanks for having me.
So I think everybody in the room is quite familiar with Vertex as a company, so we don't need to do the 2-minute elevator pitch. But I think it would be good to get a sense of what catalysts are upcoming for the company in general, let's say, for the next 12 to 18 months, and then we can go into a little bit more detail on some of those.
Sounds good. And thanks again for having me. So I think as usual, at Vertex, there is a lot going on. And maybe first and foremost, in terms of catalysts, I'd point to 3 ongoing commercial launches, right, as we enter into this new phase of revenue and commercialization diversification. So gauging the launches for ALYFTREK, our fifth medicine in cystic fibrosis, CASGEVY for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia and for JOURNAVX in acute pain.
And then beyond that, we have 4 ongoing Phase III programs and a fifth to start soon. So just to run through those, and then I'll get to the catalysts within them. It's Phase III programs for diabetic peripheral neuropathy in our pain franchise for 3 in the kidney space, 2 that are ongoing. That's in immunoglobulin A nephropathy, that's pove as well as inaxaplin in APOL1-mediated kidney disease. And the fifth to start soon will be in primary membranous nephropathy, and that's also with pove.
And then finally is our zimislecel program in type 1 diabetes. So upcoming catalysts there beyond the launches, as I mentioned, will be before the end of this year, we said that we'll complete the interim analysis enrollment cohort for our Phase II/III study in -- of inaxaplin in AMKD. And once that cohort completes enrollment, then it is 48 weeks of follow-up for the interim analysis and hopefully an accelerated approval stemming from that. But we'll complete that enrollment by the end of this year.
And then as you move quickly into 2020, we also said by the end of this year, we'll complete enrollment in the full cohort for pove in immunoglobulin A nephropathy. So those are 2 big enrollment milestones by the end of the year.
And then moving into '26, we said to expect data for pove in IgA nephropathy in the first half of 2026. We said that we'll complete enrollment in both of the DPN Phase III studies in diabetic peripheral neuropathy. In 2026, we'll also complete enrollment in the Phase I/II MAD, SAD portion of our myotonic dystrophy type 1 therapy, VX 607, and that you could see filings for both pove and IgAN as well as potentially regulatory filings for zimislecel in type 1 diabetes. So quite a bit going on.
Yes. So there's a lot to dig into there. So maybe let's start off with what the company has been traditionally known for the CF franchise. So as we think about the continued switch over, what do you think are going to be the key drivers that investors should be looking for in terms of growth potential for the franchise?
For growth, for the CF franchise overall, yes, I think that there are several key drivers. Perhaps the most macro of them all is just the survival benefits that our CFTR modulators bring. A baby born today who starts on our medicines is expected to live into their early 80s, right? So that survival advantage is really driving overall market growth for us. And then we also continue to get approvals for our therapies into younger and younger patients. TRIKAFTA is approved down to age 2. Currently, ALYFTREK, our newest product, is approved down to age 6. But KALYDECO goes all the way down to 1 month old. It's actually granules that you can put in breast milk or formula. So we'll continue to do that so our patients can get on therapy earlier and earlier, so driving into younger patients.
There's some expansion into additional geographies. And lately, we've called out Brazil as one example of that. And then I would say longer term or in the medium term, what we have the ongoing approval with the ALYFTREK, and we have patients who -- there are new patient populations there in terms of those who have rare mutations, who are not eligible for TRIKAFTA or other therapies. That's a few hundred patients in the ongoing launch in the U.S. It's more like a few thousand here in Europe, just given the geography of how the disease has developed.
And then bringing back patients who've discontinued other therapies with ALYFTREK and its benefits, different potentially patients who had side effect profiles that led them to discontinue, they are likely to try ALYFTREK again, and it also offers the benefit of once-daily dosing.
And then longer term, we see growth from the potential of VX-522, which is our inhaled mRNA therapy in development -- in co-development with Moderna. And that addresses the final 5,000 patients or so who don't make any CFTR protein and would be another avenue of growth.
Okay. So thanks for laying all that out. I maybe wanted to ask a little bit more about the switch rates because that's something that investors are thinking about from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK. Can you talk about that at least in the U.S. launch?
Yes. In the U.S. launch, we've been very pleased with the uptake so far. We have said there's really 3 populations to think about. There's that rare mutation or naive population that hasn't been on the CFTR modulator before, because they weren't eligible. So that was where we've seen the fastest uptake. And again, that's a few hundred patients in the U.S. It's a bigger opportunity outside the U.S. and Europe, where the launches are ongoing now.
And then second is sort of a steady cadence of discontinued patients as they come back for their quarterly visits with their physicians, they're made -- they're aware of this new therapy and perhaps consider coming back on therapy. Perhaps it was a life event where they discontinued pregnancy or went to college and once daily dosing is appealing to them or perhaps, as I mentioned, it was a side effect, and this has a different profile.
The majority of prescriptions, the biggest population and thus, the majority of prescriptions of ALYFTREK in the second quarter, though, are patients who switch from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK, and we've been pleased with that pace. In the U.S., there is additional liver monitoring requirement, right? So that has taken sort of an extra step of conversation between physicians and their patients to weigh the 6 months of the monthly monitoring that's required versus the lifetime of benefit of lower sweat chloride levels and once-daily dosing.
And lower sweat chloride, I think particularly for CF patients now who realize their life expectancy, they want to do it in as healthy and as fulsome a manner as possible. So lowering sweat chloride, given that CF is such a systemic disease, will prevent and/or will stage off certainly acute things like pulmonary exacerbations, but also just preserve bodily function throughout the GI system, pancreas reproductive system, et cetera. So that trade-off, I think, is well worth it as the best CFTR modulator. And then once-daily dosing, because you have to take CFTR modulators with a fatty meal, has actually quite a convenience benefit and can help in overall health management.
And so just to keep on that topic for one more question. How are doctors responding to that monitoring requirement? Do they need extra training? Is it more cumbersome for them in terms of having to bring patients in? Or how are they changing what they did before to adapt at least for the first 6 months of treatment for the patients now?
Yes, good question. So sweat chloride is how the disease is diagnosed, right? If your levels are 60 or above and you are officially diagnosed, and a level of 30 is a carrier level. So parents of children with CF who are asymptomatic have sweat chloride levels around 30. But it is not typically part of standard practice in terms of monitoring that. So there has been educational work that we've had going on for years and is certainly elevated with the launch of ALYFTREK. And certainly, natural history, physicians understand this, patients are beginning to understand it more and more. And so that has been a key driver.
The incremental monitoring, and I should note, is only a requirement in the U.S. It's not part of the label in Europe, in the U.K. or in Canada. And it is 6 months of monthly monitoring. You don't have to go into your center. We can -- you can do it at a more convenient location if you live far away from your center. And I think it really is a worthy trade-off for these lifetime of lower sweat chloride levels and once-daily dosing. And so that's the conversation that's ongoing.
Okay, cool. Another question we get is about potential impact from MFN, if any, tool of truck sales. Of course, it's still an evolving situation, we don't actually know the details. But overall, can you just talk about Vertex's pricing strategy worldwide? And what you think in general impact could be?
Sure. So it is very hard to comment on because there are so few details. But we have very strong advocacy in D.C., a lot of planning going on in the event that this does come to pass. And I think also exploring potential options and offsets that we could implement. And I will say that broadly speaking, because we have -- we're on our fifth medicine, it's not like we launched one drug 20 years ago and took annual price increases in the U.S., right? So we have said that after the statutory discount in the U.S. for Medicaid patients of 23.1%, I think it is, that we are broadly in the same line -- in the same range from an MFN-type basket of pricing.
There certainly would be challenges, but I think we're relatively well positioned versus some peers. And I think foundationally, as a company, we target very serious diseases where we're trying to deliver this transformative type of effect. And I think that often helps you in challenging reimbursement environment. So that's where we'll continue to focus.
Okay. And then related to that, tariffs, in terms of manufacturing, just overall how does supply chain work for production?
Yes. So again, I think relatively well positioned versus peers. The majority of our manufacturing is done in the U.S. We're currently building a new facility with our partners, Lonza in New Hampshire for our cell therapy products, primarily type 1 diabetes. And to date, with what we know, there's been minimal impact, and we'll see what happens with -- I forget if it's 232 or 233, but we think we'll be relatively well positioned and certainly have taken steps to minimize any impact in the near to medium term. So likely, it wouldn't be anything until 2027, even if it were to go into effect very shortly.
Okay. Good to know. I do want to ask about providing any color on the dispute, I think, with Royalty Pharma as it relates to royalties. Where does that stand? And should we be expecting to hear any updates on that?
I can't say much given confidentiality around it, but I can confirm as Royalty announced on the day of our earnings, they informed us that they'd like to initiate a dispute over the royalty rate for ALYFTREK, which we believe is a 4% rate, and that's how we are booking it. And they believe that they maintain it something in the higher single digits. There is a set process that goes through. I believe they've stated they believe this should wrap up by year-end of 2026, and I wouldn't disagree with that.
Okay. And then as we look ahead, you've had now several generations of improvements upon previous products in the CF franchise. So as you look ahead, as you think about CFTR modulators in general, can you talk about version 3.0? I think you alluded to it. What is the science behind that? And what is the ultimate goal is to treat every patient or to be able to treat them as best as possible. So can you provide some color on that because I know there's potentially some competition several years down the line?
Yes. So our long-standing goal has been to get all CF patients to carrier levels, so below that 30% threshold in terms of sweat chloride. And with TRIKAFTA, we're getting maybe 25%, 30% of patients there. And in the pediatric study for ALYFTREK, we got a majority of patients there, just over 50%. So those kids could really see -- be asymptomatic their entire lives.
And so the goal for VX-828, which is the next gen 3.0 as we somewhat confusingly call it, is to raise the bar on ALYFTREK and get even more patients to below that 30% threshold for carrier level while also maintaining once-daily dosing. And we have our proprietary human bronchial epithelial cell assays that have over the years have become quite qualitatively and quantitatively predictive of success from benchtop to bedside, and we're encouraged by what we've seen in 828 thus far and should be in patients with CF before the end of the year.
So should we be able to see data over the next 12 to 18 months from that? I know you haven't guided...
We haven't commented, but I think just stay tuned.
Sure. Okay. So maybe let's move on to the pain franchise. Can you talk about the progress that you've made so far in securing broad access coverage for JOURNAVX? I want to call it JOURNAVX all the time, JOURNAVX. And what additional work might be needed to gain full coverage?
Yes. So I'll have to tether back to our earnings call. We'll provide updates on this. But in early August, we were very pleased to recall this launched in the March time frame. And by early August, we had already had, what we call, unrestricted access for 150 million lives in the U.S. -- excuse me, 150 million lives total, 85 million of which were unrestricted. And by unrestricted, we mean that there are no step edits, right, which really doesn't make any sense. You don't want to have to fail an opioid before you go to non-opioid. And there are very importantly, no prior authorizations required. So these are contracts we've negotiated for 85 million covered lives where those are the 2 key points on our side of the table, and we've been very pleased to get to that.
The other 65 million to get to the total 150 million, I think there's been some confusion on the Street. Those are parties with whom we just have yet to negotiate, and they have proactively provided coverage, but there may still be restrictions to that coverage. So expect more of that 65 million to move into the 85 million bucket and the bucket overall to continue to grow.
We've said back in early August that we had 2 of the 3 major PBMs, and I forgot a catalyst because we said we'll get one of the third by the end of this year. And as well at the time, we said, I think it was 16 state Medicaid plans and continue to make progress there. So I think if you go back to prior to launch, there were a lot of folks who said you'll never get anyone to pay for a branded medicine when opioids are $0.20, $0.30 on the day. And that's clearly not the case. There's a real unmet need in the market for additional options for pain management and JOURNAVX is resonating there.
I also wanted to ask about competition from acetaminophen and NSAIDs for example.
You said it perfectly.
How are you thinking about strategy there because some physicians have said that taking those for multiple days can at least for post op pain, for example, achieve the target, and those are also quite inexpensive. So what is the real hook for JOURNAVX when people are -- when doctors are pitched the idea.
Yes. So I think one of the most attractive things about JOURNAVX in addition to its efficacy is its clean, clean, clean profile, right? If you recall in one of our studies, I think it was the Phase III for acute pain, the side effect profile is actually better than placebo in many ways because it's actually providing true pain relief. And so I think we also did not combine it, even though typically pain is multimodal, right, in our studies because we wanted a true measure of its treatment effect. But I think you are seeing physicians increasingly get very comfortable with -- we're certainly marketing it on label, but you're seeing some preoperative use, combination use. That's just the nature of the pain market, I think. So no concerns there. And ultimately, I think that's how physicians practice in this market and JOURNAVX fits very well within that.
So is most of the use right now for, let's say, a patient who's being discharged from the hospital, they're given a script ideally on their way home or close to it, they can pick up the script. Is that the ideal?
That's right. As of in Q2, and this is how the broader market has played out, it was about a 35-65 split, 35% sort of in-facility use, if you think about it and 65% at discharge, so filled in that retail setting. And that's what the IQVIA scripts are tracking is about that 65% of the market, and we'll update that each quarter.
Okay. And then in terms of access, so for every pharmacy in the United States, how quickly can the supply be delivered to the pharmacy so that the patient can have access to it?
Yes. Because this is an acute market, that was a very key part of our launch strategy was ensuring broad access at pharmacies nationwide because if it's not there, right, it's unlikely to get filled. So we've had -- there are learnings along the way, but that's been a key focus. And I think the availability is there.
Okay. And then in terms of average use per patients, how are they using it? And how -- well, ultimately, we're just trying to figure out dollars per patient. So do you have a sense on -- it's still early in the launch, on what those metrics could look like.
So the average script duration, if that's your specific question, has been about 14 days, and that's consistent with the broader market, 80 million patients seek a therapy and a prescription medicine for pain. And over the years, that's been about the duration and JOURNAVX is fitting right within that. So about 14 days on the discharge segment of it.
And I would just segue, if I may, from that into, we've been really pleased with the breadth of the uptake, both in terms of different types of physicians who are prescribing it ranging, obviously, anesthesiologists and pain specialists, ER docs, orthopods, general surgeons, plastic surgeons, OB/GYNs, dentists are finding a good niche for that with a broad moderate to severe acute pain label, right, that qualifies for a lot. And we've been really pleased with the breadth, and that's been our goal here in these first couple of months post launch.
What's the maximum amount of time a patient can be on it?
So the World Health Organization defines acute pain as 90 days. I don't think there's an upper limit per se, and you can get a refill. So -- but it has to be defined as acute pain to be on label.
I would assume the average is 14 days, but you might see some that are significantly more potentially.
That's right. Yes.
Okay. Now in terms of the movement into chronic pain. So acute pain has always been in the realm of short-term use and patients will cycle on. And when they don't need it anymore, they cycle off. But in terms of the market potential, chronic pain has always been sort of the place to think about in terms of having a patient for long periods of time. How has your strategy changed from a year ago to now on how the company is seeing the pursuit of chronic pain because you did have an LSR study update last year, was a little bit disappointing. And on the 2Q call, it did seem like there was a little bit of a shift in tone about the process to getting, if not the broadest label possible, the piece of indications added on. So sort of a long question to ask, but love to hear your thoughts.
Yes. No, I appreciate how you asked it. So we believe firmly in the unique mechanism of action for JOURNAVX, right, which is inhibiting the pain signal before it can get to the central nervous system. So in our view and what we've seen in our predecessor molecules and with JOURNAVX is that it does work across all different types of pain, that being acute or chronic, even musculoskeletal with our predecessor molecule, VX-150. And so therefore, our goal remains a broad peripheral neuropathic pain label of which 10 million patients suffer from in the U.S. every year. And our hope had been originally to do one Phase III study in diabetic peripheral neuropathy, which is about 2 million of the 10 million patients and one study in lumbosacral radiculopathy, which is about 4 million of the 10 million patients and go to FDA with a proposal for a broad PNP label resulting from that study and then in all-comers. And that was very similar to what we did in acute pain with a bunionectomy and abdominoplasty and in all-comers.
But it was clear at our end of Phase II meeting in July that the FDA is still thinking about peripheral neuropathic pain as different conditions, and they are more focused on etiology at this point. And if you think about it, right, sometimes the cause is a metabolic disease, sometimes it's cancer, a toxin, et cetera. There are many different causes and even locations and sometimes even the sensation of the pain, more urgent versus sort of a generalized pain, constant pain, et cetera. And it was, I think, a very productive conversation and meeting. But what was clear from it is that our idea to do one Phase III DPN and one Phase III LSR study would not get us a broad PNP label at this point in time. And that the clearest feedback was to traditionally, as we have before, 2 studies in any indication, get that indication and then one study could add on additional indications. So hence, our communication that we would pivot and start a second DPN study as soon as possible.
And that our next steps are still to be determined because the agency in our discussions made it clear that our point was that you can't expect us to do studies in every single subpopulation of this 10 million, and they might be open to smaller subgroups. So not 60% of patients getting you the full pie, but perhaps something like mononeuropathies or polyneuropathies. And that conversation we were encouraged to see was very well represented in the draft guidance that they issued last week or the week before. And so we are going through to essentially determine what's the next best, most efficient step to ultimately reach our goal of a broad PNP label, but it may be after DPN, it may be another single indication. It may be a small grouping. It's still to be determined, and we are encouraged by the ongoing dialogue we have with the agency. So it's a little bit of a stay tuned.
Okay. So on DPN, I think you have a study reading out next year.
We've said -- so the first study actually began in December of '24. The second study will begin imminently and that all we have said to date is to expect enrollment to complete in both in 2026. So we haven't given a time line for data. They are 12-week studies with 2 weeks of follow-up. But we're going to the same sites that are well rehearsed in treating DPN patients and running these types of studies, managing placebo effect, et cetera. So it will really be sort of which one goes in, but we'd like to manage them so that they both complete enrollment next year.
So in general, when should people expect to -- for Vertex to start recording sales for chronic pain.
We haven't given guidance to that. If you complete enrollment in '26 for 14-week studies, right, and we'll move as quickly as we can, you can add a year on something like that, but we just haven't said.
Okay. And I guess, just given the results from the LSR study, what's giving you confidence in DPN in the pursuit of 2 studies on that now?
Yes. So there has not -- we have grand ambitions at Vertex, and that's why we went after LSR and still ultimately expect to get there. But the drug worked, right? It was the placebo effect that was the surprise there and the curves didn't separate. And so I think lessons learned, and there are some things that you can do in terms of trial design, in terms of enriching the population or weeding out Uber responders or nonresponders, et cetera. Pain, you have to have a bit of an iron stomach in pain given that it is a subjective endpoint.
So back to the FDA draft guidance and wanting the most efficient pathway there. It may be LSR next. It may be something else. We may -- we're also very, very excited about the work that we're doing inhibiting NaV1.7, which actually trigger the pain sensation and our 1.8 inhibitor like JOURNAVX is what propagates it and the idea of combination therapies down the line, which could be down the line, which could be synergistic in terms of their effect, that's a possibility as well. So it's -- we're working quickly to communicate more, but want to make the next best step that's most efficient to get to the full population.
Okay. And then maybe to touch upon the subgroups that you might test for future trials to get a broader label. Have any discussions around that topic been advanced yet? Or are you primarily focused just on getting through DPN?
So we had discussions about potential groupings at our end of Phase II meeting and then those are reflected in the draft guidance that was issued, and I think the dialogue will go from there.
Okay. And then in terms of the second DPN study, is there any meaningful difference in study design relative to the first one?
There is. So the FDA endpoint is versus placebo. We have a pregabalin reference arm in the first Phase II study. We'll just run it versus placebo. And so instead of -- I think it's 1,100 patients in the first, it will probably more like 750 in the second, a smaller, hopefully faster study.
Okay. But in terms of the output of each study, you're expecting them to be equally...
That's right. And we can combine the results there, et cetera, yes.
And then maybe one more. In terms of what you think the pie should ultimately look like, is there any competition on the horizon that would have similar or different mechanisms of action that would influence what potential portions of the pie the company would want to go after?
Broadly speaking, we have consistently said that we think it's a specialty commercialization model for acute pain and for peripheral neuropathic pain, but that musculoskeletal is a primary care market. And so we would partner commercially for that. Within PNP, no, I think we see that in its entirety as a specialty type of market, whether it's endocrinologists or pain specialists, et cetera.
Okay. So with that, let's maybe move on to the pipeline. Let's start with the kidney franchise because there's a lot going on there. You mentioned pove. We get a lot of questions, and we've done a lot of work, and we're excited about IgAN. So can you talk to us about -- that was obviously part of the Alpine acquisition. Can you talk to us about what -- because other companies are pursuing this and at the time Vertex was looking, there would have been a few options to pick from. So what in particular about Alpine, what helped the company decide that, that was the platform that you wanted to bring internal?
Sure. It was extensive due diligence, and it was our largest M&A transaction. And I think that we continue to be more and more pleased with -- now that was a year ago, April, continue to be more and more pleased with how it's all going and where it can go from here. So what we were seeking is really a hope for best-in-class in terms of the clinical profile. And although we have earlier-stage data than some peers, we continue to feel that, that potential exists there.
So fundamentally, we think it's important to inhibit both BAFF and APRIL given they act at different points in the cycle of B-cell maturation. I think the targeted protein design of pove also, we think, will give it better affinity and potentially potency. It also can lead to smaller molecule size, which is important for the second half of the bucket, I'll talk about in a bit. And so to date, again, earlier phase data, but we have seen the greatest depth of response in terms of reduction in proteinuria, UPCR, and we'd hope to be able to sustain that over time, given that target design and the dual inhibition.
I think also important to us were the patient-centric factors. And principally, that stems to being able to have an auto -- an easy-to-use auto-injector for at-home use with smaller volume. Again, that smaller molecule means it's 80 mgs, which is smaller volume, so less painful and also importantly, be able to do it only once every 4 weeks. And I think in more crowded markets, and you've seen this in the past, it's not always the first entrant, but it's the entrant that has the best clinical profile and patient-centric factors that can ultimately win in that market.
We also hope to, I think, a bit in terms of mind share with nephrologists to have some benefit from pove as a pipeline and a product. So moving forward into a Phase III in primary membranous nephropathy later this year and gaining that mind share as well with our inaxaplin study. And so we have accelerated the time lines for pove in IgAN since the acquisition, starting the trial more quickly and then moving up. We hit the interim analysis enrollment in -- we announced that in May and then saying that we would complete enrollment in the full study by the end of this year.
And to that point, actually, I'd like to note that in Q3, I think because of the faster enrollment of pove, because of the increased investments that we're making in marketing initiatives for JOURNAVX behind the launch of -- in acute pain and the reimbursement progress we're making as well as some acquired IP R&D charges due to investments in external innovation. It's likely for the full year 2025, excuse me, that our operating expense guidance with the upper end of the range of $5 billion will exceed that by a slight amount.
Okay. Good to know. Yes, you mentioned it's a credit space, potentially crowded space like you've had 3 competitors have data readouts. And so it seems to be a moving target between trying to decide whether APRIL alone is good, APRIL, BAFF might be better, dosing frequency and how it's being dosed. So you're also in development for trying to develop an auto-injector for home use. Can you give us an update on where that is? And where would that be integrated into the clinical program?
So those studies are ongoing, and the expectation is we'll have that at commercial launch, home use, auto-injector, again, small volume every 4 weeks.
Okay. And then how big does Vertex think that the IgAN opportunity is the TAM?
So this is another area where we're expanding both geographically as well. So our belief is that there's probably over 300,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe. And that if you -- we partnered with Zai Lab for China and surrounding countries and with Ono for Japan and surrounding countries and that you can get a patient population well in excess of 1 million once you count all those other regions as well.
So in terms of the strategy that was used for CF, how would an IgAN strategy be different in terms of the investment that would be needed for a sales force, et cetera?
Yes. So we have a variety of different models, right? Our CF field force is quite small, but there's a large sort of corporate headquarters team that helps patients with reimbursement, et cetera, et cetera. Pain will be the opposite. It's a larger field force. We started with about 150 reps, and we'll probably get closer to 300 over time, but then much smaller, if not an outsourced sort of patient because it's acute patients to date, right?
CASGEVY is probably more CF like, but a little bit larger. And then I think with IgAN that principally, we are not a therapeutic category company, but we do have 4 programs in the kidney space with our ADPKD therapy VX-407, excuse me, that has begun its proof-of-concept study, which is very exciting. And so we are beginning the work to get ready for a renal sales force. And stay tuned on numbers there, but I think could be quite impactful given the -- what we like to call this renal renaissance. Our CEO is a nephrologist and will lament that for many years, it was just repurposed cardiovascular medicines that nephrologists had at their disposal. And now there's really a nice new wave of innovative therapies. So I think that will help in terms of mind share of patient reach, et cetera. And I think that's partially what's helping drive the faster enrollment in pove for IgAN, frankly.
And so you talked about other indications, you mentioned pMN. And so how big is that opportunity relative to IgAN, do you think?
It is definitely smaller, but I think we'd have a first-mover advantage there. And again, it's sort of -- it's right there and same nephrologists treating those patients. I'm forgetting the exact patient number right now though, apologies.
And then you also have mentioned gMG and wAIHA. So gMG, I think most people in the room are familiar with because of argenx now. Where is the room for improvement there?
Yes. So I think that for myasthenia gravis, it is a B cell-driven disease. We're excited about the opportunity and feel that current therapies, patients may have to cycle on or cycle off and that you could have a sustained chronic therapy and hopefully, even more of a transformative benefit with a therapy that controls B cells like pove. So stay tuned. We've said, I think, for wAIHA that we'll wait for additional data from the RUBY-4 basket study by the end of this year. And with myasthenia gravis, we're waiting ongoing discussions with the agency. So more updates post those.
Okay. And then maybe a last couple of questions on dosing frequency for all the different indications. How should we be thinking about that?
I think that it's likely, given the advantages of pove that you could see that monthly dosing across the indications. But -- and that's the early plan, I think, for pMN and the others, it's just too soon to tell, but that would be our hope.
Okay. And then before I let you go, out of all the programs that the company is developing, number one, what should we be most excited about? And number two, what do you think is most underappreciated?
We have a rule, no favorite children at Vertex. And both Reshma and I are moms of twin, so we're good at maintaining that rule. But I think that we do have -- whether -- if you want to solve a public health crisis, that's JOURNAVX and the opioid crisis. If you want to bring transformative effect to an underserved patient population, that's CASGEVY and sickle cell and beta thalassemia, right?
If you want to focus on a large patient population that hasn't had targeted therapies, that's IgAN and pMN. So I think we really are excited about all of them. And I would mention in terms of what's most overlooked, we didn't discuss zimislecel for type 1 diabetes, really exciting opportunity there in a Phase III study. And these patients are on 30, 40 units of exogenous insulin daily, and we see them insulin independent and free from severe hypoglycemic events. So really exciting technology there.
Okay. With that, we are out of time. So thanks, guys, for joining us this morning, and we'll talk to you soon.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Morgan Stanley 23rd Annual Global Healthcare Conference
1. Question Answer
Great. Thanks for joining us, everybody. I'm Terence Flynn, I'm Morgan Stanley's U.S. biopharma analyst. I'm very pleased to be hosting Vertex Pharmaceuticals this afternoon. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
With that, I'm going to turn it over to the company's CEO and President, Reshma Kewalramani, who's going to give us some opening remarks, and then we'll dive into questions. But thank you so much both for being here. Really appreciate it.
Great. Terence, thanks so much for hosting us. It's very nice to be with all of you. Maybe two or three themes for opening remarks, and then we can dive into any particular areas that you wish. Maybe the first thing to say is that our leadership position in CF continues. We are absolutely delighted to be treating more and more patients year-on-year. And now with ALYFTREK, the medicine that we launched late last year, beginning of this year, we can treat even more patients in that there are some 39 more mutations that are in the [ ALY ] label and there are some patients who previously were on one of our other medicines that discontinued, but those patients can come back and people can gain by being on a once-daily medicine that has to date, the best efficacy that we've seen.
Second, maybe two years ago, Terence, if we were talking, we'd say, well, that was what our commercialized portfolio would look like. Two years forward, we now have a presence in heme with CASGEVY in sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, and we also launched JOURNAVX in acute pain. And as we look out on the horizon, we talked about five launches in five years a little while ago. And I would say we are well on track to make that, if not exceeded.
Second, to talk about the pipeline, there's a lot going on. There are four programs already in pivotal development with the fifth to come very soon. And I'll just enumerate them for you in the event that you have some questions on them. There's Povetacicept, the dual APRIL/BAFF inhibitor in IgAN. There is the two DPN studies with suzetrigine. There is also the Inaxaplin study in AMKD that's in pivotal development as well as type 1 diabetes, that's the cell-based therapy.
The second [ KOBE ] program, you'll remember we described this as a product with a pipeline. That one will be membranous,and that should start its pivotal development shortly. And if I think a little bit behind that, there's some really exciting work going on in ADPKD, which is a Phase II program that started in something called DM1, myotonic dystrophy type 1. That's also in a Phase I/II, and it's in the Phase II part. So it's multiple ascending dose where we can look at safety and efficacy and some cool work earlier in the pipeline in terms of improved conditioning for CASGEVY, NaV1.7, alone or in combination with our paying products and improved immunosuppression for the type 1 diabetes program.
So lots going on in the commercial world in the pipeline, both mid- and earlier stage. And as I think about the company, we've also been taking some time, effort and focus to scale the company to keep up with all of this growth as we look forward to these next, let's say, 3, 5 years.
Great. Well, I appreciate the broad overview there, and I know we're going to dig into a lot of this over the subsequent half hour here. You discussed the diversification journey that you've been on as a company and made a lot of progress there. I guess as you think about the forward is there more work that you have to do? Or you feel pretty comfortable you're talking about scaling the company, making investments, obviously, from a bandwidth perspective, a lot going on. So do you see more opportunities? Or do you think you have enough right now and you kind of want to execute on the current opportunity set?
It's both. There is definitely more coming. So let's say we have three franchises today, CF, heme and pain. What we can see in front of us, there's more coming. And I would say that's going to be a renal franchise led by Pove and AMKD right behind that before we get some more Pove and then ADPKD. Type 1 diabetes is also right around the corner. And because of the fact that it's in Phase III, I see chronic neuropathic pain by wave DPN being right there.
But then when I look at the mid-stage pipeline, you can already see products emerging. So there's more in the near-term for sure. But as we think about our sandboxes between 12 and 24 diseases, many of those diseases have progressed from the research stage, from the discovery stage into the clinic. And I expect that, let's call it, a decade and look out 5 years that there's more coming.
Yes. And do you think there's also opportunities for external innovation? I know the [indiscernible] povetacicept, that was an example, the type 1 diabetes program. But as you look at your sandbox, are there opportunities out there that you continue to pursue and see a need for, you think, again, you're comfortable with kind of where you stand on the internal side.
Yes. I'm going to sound like a very broken record on this, Terence, but nothing has changed. If you look at our pipeline today, about 40% of our pipeline comes from external innovation. About 60% comes from internal innovation. And our approach is exactly the same. We stay very close to our knitting on our R&D strategy, and we stay very close to our knitting on our external innovation strategy. And basically, what that means is it is all about our R&D approach. And if the best assets are internal, that's superb. And if we find great external assets, that's super. But what matters to us is to execute on our R&D strategy.
Okay. Great. Maybe one last one on the strategy front before we get into the kind of launch products and some of the pipeline is. Obviously, there's a lot of focus on tariffs in MFN. I know from a tariff perspective, you guys are less exposed than maybe some of your peers. But on MFN, is still an area of uncertainty. I know you guys are engaged in Washington, D.C., like lot of your peer companies. What's your latest view on how this is evolving? And are we getting closer to any resolution here?
Yes. I will say it is a little bit of sculpting fog. It's a crystal ball that's kind of blurry. It is difficult to tell. The facts on the ground are for tariffs. There is a 232 process that continues, and there has not been new news since the announcement that they would be a review in this 232 process would be undertaken.
I will tell you, from a Vertex perspective, we have a very diversified supply chain. We are not dependent on any one continent or country for our raw materials or our API. And the overwhelming majority of our manufacturing is actually done here in the U.S. We do manufacture CASGEVY in Europe for some of our ex U.S. markets, but the vast majority of our manufacturing is actually done right here.
On the MFN side, I think all of you know that 17 companies received a letter and a request to think about U.S. pricing and ex U.S. pricing. We did not receive such a letter. Obviously, we're studying the situation. We have a very good line of communication into D.C. and we are closely following, but there is no new news on our front.
Okay. Great. Maybe we'll pivot over to the launch -- newly launched products. So JOURNAVX, obviously, you mentioned as one of your diversification efforts. Maybe just help us think through some of the near-term dynamics, but also maybe set the stage for 2026 in terms of some of the efforts you're making now and how that sets you up for growth in '26?
Absolutely. Let me turn it over to the expert who is the architect of the JOURNAVX launch and you can hear it right from the horse's mouth. Duncan?
All right. Good morning, everybody. Nice to see you. Thank you for the time today. Appreciate it. In terms of the JOURNAVX launch, we continue to be extremely pleased with the progress that we are seeing so far. As we mentioned on the earnings call, we've seen rapid coverage by payers at the time -- at the beginning of August, we communicated 150 million lives covered here in the U.S., which in 6 or 7 months is impressive progress. Obviously, the number since then has only further increased, and we look forward to updating you in the future.
We continue to make great progress in terms of hospital coverage, hospitals putting JOURNAVX either on their formulary or into their discharge protocols and as a result of that, we continue to see tremendous feedback from both the physician community as well as patients in terms of their clinical response to JOURNAVX. We're also seeing the product to be highly promotionally responsive, particularly to field engagement and field activity as well as to our digital engagement. As many of you know, we put in place a patient support program to enable patients to easily access JOURNAVX in advance of payer coverage.
And obviously, as that payer coverage increases, the degree to which the patient support program kicks in, commensurately decreases. The reason I mentioned that at this particular point is that, obviously, as we see prescriptions grow over the course of 2025, we'll continue to see more of those prescriptions converted into revenue in the balance of 2025. And as we conclude our access arrangements through the balance of 2025, it then gives us the opportunity to power up our commercial investments in terms of sales and marketing to drive prescriptions towards the back end of 2025 and particularly into 2026 and on.
And based on that, I would assume we should expect gross to -- an improvement on gross to net as well as a result of that turnover that you talked about?
Yes. Absolutely.
I suppose it's fair to say, Duncan, that the gross to net was 100% when we were covering all the scripts?
For those prescriptions we were covering, it was 100%. Yes.
So there's only one direction to go.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay. Have you -- can you comment at all about where you think steady-state gross to net might shake out given some of these payer agreements that you've reached?
I think, in general, we do not provide steady state gross to net guidance. But we certainly expect it to reduce significantly.
Okay. Fair enough. Yes. And what about the quality of coverage like as you think like the tiering structure. I know that's something else we get a lot of questions on. How is that playing out relative to your expectations, like the quality of the coverage that you're actually seeing?
Great question. So to step back a little bit, our strategy in terms of coverage, as we articulated even before launch was to ensure that there were no prior authorizations and no step edits in the deals that we do with payers. Obviously, in this space, a step edit makes really very limited clinical sense. You don't want patients to start on an opioid, have to fail the opioid and then to be given JOURNAVX when they have acute pain. And we also wanted to make sure that prior authorizations were not in place because we know that for surgeons with a relatively sort of standardized workflow, prior authorizations are somewhat unwelcome step in the process, should we say.
So every single one of the contracts we have concluded with a payer to date, does not have a prior authorization and does not have a step edit. There are, of course, some payers that are covering JOURNAVX in advance of or on the side of doing a -- having an agreement with us, with Vertex. And in some of those cases, they have put in place prior authorizations in step edit. So the 150 million lives is not 100% unrestricted. But for all the deals that we have done, which is about 94 million of those lives, then the access is unrestricted. And obviously, as we conclude arrangements with payers we continue to seek unrestricted access for JOURNAVX.
Okay. Great. The other one that I know is -- this top of mind is just the NOPAIN Act coverage, and I think there's going to be an update on the list this fall. So maybe just should we expect JOURNAVX to be on the list this time around?
Yes. Maybe I'll ask Duncan to comment on this one. I'll give you a little bit of background. The NOPAIN Act, which passed in December of 2023 was a concerted effort by the community. And certainly, we were supporters of that bill because it was a bill that provided hospital outpatient or surgical center add-on payment for the Medicare population. And if you go back and read the transcripts and you go back and read the letters at Congress sent in, it was meant for drugs like JOURNAVX. And so it is a little bit perplexing that when the draft list came out that JOURNAVX was not on that list, as you rightfully point out, the final list will be out this fall. And I'll turn it over to Duncan to tell you a little bit about that.
Yes. So we are continuing to work with the administration to secure JOURNAVX on the final version of the list rather than the draft version. I would also make the comment that because of the patient population that Reshma alluded to as Medicare patients in outpatient surgeries or ASCs, is actually financially a relatively small part of the business opportunity for JOURNAVX. It's less than 2%. So I think it is important that JOURNAVX is on that list from a sort of iconic point of view, but it's not a huge driver from a financial business point of view.
What is the -- it sounds like you're -- I don't know, it's like super confident that you'll be on there yet. So what's like the hesitation, like what's the gating factor that you think that...
I think it's the difference of opinion on how you interpret our label. Our label does not have the words in postsurgical pain, which is what is in the legislation. But obviously, JOURNAVX in the Phase III program was used after bunionectomy and after abdominoplasty, both of which I think you would usually define as surgeries. So we do believe it has shown efficacy and works in postsurgical pain. It's just those words don't happen to be on the FDA label for the product. But we think that common sense will prevail, and it will be on the final list.
Or is there an opportunity to update the label to add those words?
Yes. So the label is exactly the label we wanted, a broad label for moderate-to-severe acute pain so that as patients think about it or doctors think about it, because there's the label then translates to a patient leaflet, right? So as doctors look at it, it's very clear to them a kidney stone, a sprain, a strain, a pain of any variety is in just as obvious as it is that post-surgical is in. So it's the right label.
I do think that when people review the label and look at the clinical trials that led to the label, I think you will come to the conclusion that those surgeries, you can call them surgeries, you can call them operations, but I don't think there's anything else you can call them.
Okay. Fair enough. All right. On the Phase III DPN program, Reshma, you mentioned this is one of the key pivotal programs that you guys are conducting. Maybe just give us an update on kind of enrollment and where we stand. And then any thoughts on data timing because, again, I think last time we spoke, it sounded like potentially the first trial, obviously it started, enrollment seems to be going well, it could read out maybe next year, but just want to check on timing there and enrollment.
You're spot on, on all of it. So we had one trial that had started in, I guess, this calendar year, about 6 months, 8 months, something like that. And now we are starting the second trial to secure that DPN indication. It's really important in pain, as you all have recognized that we need to work with specialized sites that are understanding of how to conduct that clinical trial can appropriately train their patients because the endpoint is ultimately a subjective endpoint and the placebo effect is important and important to manage. So for that reason, we're going to the same circumscribed number of sites there, the well-trained sites who have done this before and know how to operate in DPN. And so what I expect is that the enrollment in the first trial will now slow as the sites start to enroll in the second trial, and I do expect both studies will complete enrollment by the end of next year. And I do expect, therefore, that we'll be able to not only enroll the studies at approximately at the same time, but share results at the same time.
So you don't do -- the first trial won't read out earlier you think?
I don't think so. The enrollment is -- that one has been ongoing for more than 6 months, maybe 8 months. So we have a good line of sight on the enrollment metrics and the momentum, and it's going very well. I expect now when the second study starts, enrollment will, therefore, slow in study #1 as people come on to study #2 and therefore, they will both end at about the right time so that they can set up for readouts together.
Okay. And that will be second half of next year?
The enrollment should complete in the second half of next year, second half of 2026. The study is a 12-week duration in terms of treatment study. So after enrollment, we need 12 weeks. So we haven't guided to when results will be available. We've been talking about the fact that the study enrollment should end at about the same time somewhere towards the tail end of next year.
Okay. Got it. And then just remind us the target profile here. Obviously, a little bit different from some of the acute studies that ran different from LSR, Lyrica has been approved here and used. So if you think about the target profile, what's the win look like from your perspective from these Phase IIIs?
Yes. In DPN, there have been trials done with the gabapentinoid or Lyrica when it was a branded drug with Duloxetine. There've been positive Phase II studies. There've been positive Phase III studies and this is a tried and true regulatory pathway as well. Frankly, that's why those who go into the peripheral neuropathic pain area, start with DPN. And equally, frankly, that's why we started with DPN because it's a tried and true path.
For study #1 for us, it's designed very, very similarly to the Phase II study. There's a JOURNAVX arm, and we chose the high dose. So 70 milligrams. There is a placebo arm and there is a gabapentinoid arm. The gabapentinoid arm is not required for regulators. We've put it in so that you can have a magnitude of the treatment effect for context. It is a primary endpoint of JOURNAVX versus placebo.
The second study is a smaller study in terms of sample size. It does not have a gabapentinoid arm because study #1 does. And again, the primary endpoint is JOURNAVX versus placebo. What would be a win? A win would be a statistically significant and clinically meaningful results. There is a definition of clinical meaningfulness in this field and has to do with an improvement compared to baseline of about 30%. And so that's what we're looking for in this area.
Okay. Great. Maybe, Duncan, you could just level set us in terms of the opportunity in chronic relative to acute, just big picture and what DPN represents from an opportunity perspective.
Sure. We don't necessarily give exact $1 billion guidance, but I would say that both of them obviously offer multibillion dollar opportunities. And to put some numbers behind that, in moderate-to-severe acute pain there are about 80 million patients per year that go through moderate-to-severe acute pain. About half of them are still prescribed an opioid even today. But of course, those patients are generally speaking, on a relatively short course of treatment, the average treatment duration is about a 14-day prescription for non-opioid prescriptions, and that is exactly what we're seeing with JOURNAVX right now.
The DPN market is about 2 million, 2.5 million patients here in the U.S., but of course, those are chronic patients who will be taking the products as with any other chronic disease on a daily basis. So obviously, therefore, they both offer multibillion-dollar opportunities, but how the mathematics get you there is a little bit different.
What's the -- and if you were to look at like a steady-state penetration number for Lyrica of that 2 million to 2.5 million, do you guys have any idea where Lyrica kind of shook out on a steady-state basis roughly?
Duncan, you'll correct me if I go stray, but I think at its peak, when Lyrica was branded, it was north of $5 billion in terms of revenue. And that was made up of a few different conditions under there, but the lead indication was in DPN.
Okay. Great. The other -- well, maybe just in the interest of time, I'll pivot over to povetacicept, again, another important late-stage program for you guys. You're going to have some of the first pivotal data first half of next year. Again, I think there's a lot of debate and kind of two things. One is competitive target profile. I think you guys are aiming for best-in-class. So maybe you could speak to that, Reshma, in terms of the Phase II that you guys have. And then the second is just the market opportunity here in light of the competitive landscape and where you see this going over time for the lead indication in IgAN?
Yes. Sure thing. Let's split that question, Duncan, you take the second half, and I'll take the first half. It just happens to be the case that I am a nephrologist, and it is a really great time to be a nephrologist or be interested in the field of nephrology. We have not seen this kind of drug development, certainly not in my lifetime, but I don't think we've seen this kind of drug development ever in renal medicine, including in IgAN. So it's a wonderful thing for patients suffering from renal disease because there's real hope coming.
For us, IgA nephropathy or IgAN, has been in our metaphorical sandbox for some time now. The issue was before we acquired Alpine, we did not have an internal program, and we did not have an internal approach that we thought would be transformative. But we knew that an APRIL/BAFF approach could be that. And so as we saw Alpine emerge, that's why we targeted that company, and that's why we made that acquisition.
So starting with the preclinical, povetacicept has best-in-class potency, best-in-class binding affinity and was specifically engineered as this dual APRIL/BAFF therapeutic to have the right format, so think size, isoelectric point and other biophysical properties to have the best tissue penetration. So that's what we saw in terms of the molecule and preclinical.
In terms of the Phase II data, what we saw was best-in-class potential on proteinuria, hematuria, as well as emerging data on GFR. Now GFR takes a little bit of time. So you can't really see that with 12-week, 24-week 48-week data but you can see proteinuria and hematuria in that time frame, and we really liked what we saw. And that really drove this.
In terms of best-in-class for patients and competing in the marketplace, I'll turn it over to Duncan.
Yes. So obviously, IgAN is a significant market. It's about 300,000 patients. And in terms of the profile of povetacicept, as Reshma alluded to, it has an incredible profile as a medicine, and we're seeing that play out in the clinical data that's been published so far. So we're very excited about the opportunity that it offers. Obviously, this is a market where people can transition from one medicine to another. And so what we think is important here is things like proteinuria as an endpoint and to a lesser extent, hematuria as well, where we're seeing very strong data.
Put another way, although nephrologists will tell you their goal is 0.5 grams per gram of proteinuria, most patients never get anywhere near that goal. And frankly, all of us who don't have disease would have 0 grams of protein in our urine. We'd also have 0 grams of blood in our urine as well. And we're seeing good data both in terms of proteinuria as well as hematuria. And of course, HCPs and the nephrologists use both of those as indications of disease control indications of inflammation even if GFR is actually stable.
The other comment I'd make around povetacicept is that there is a dosing advantage, we believe, to the product as well as a size of dosing advantage. So put simply, if we come on to the market with a product that has excellent proteinuria data, excellent hematuria data, it is easy for the patient to take and has been engineered to be highly effective in this disease area unlike a wild-type molecule, we believe that physicians will want try using that product because, frankly, they don't want any protein or any blood in people's urine.
Yes. When we think about the Phase III data relative to Phase II on UPCR, I think from some of the other companies in the space, we've seen a little bit of a step down in efficacy. Is that generally what you guys would expect as well, just as we go to broader sites, more patients that you see some diminution versus the Phase II data? Or is there a reason to think that we should expect a very similar level of UPCR?
Yes. In IgA nephropathy, unlike in pain, for example, you are advantaged by the fact that the endpoint is an objective endpoint, and that really helps. It's a very well-controlled 24-hour urine for protein. The entry criteria in the type of patients enrolled in Phase II are very, very similar to the entry criteria and the types of patients in Phase III. We expect to release more Phase II data towards the back end of this year.
And I think what you'll see in that data set is more patients with longer duration of follow-up. And so I think you'll be able to make your assessment on what happens when you have more patients go through 24, 36, 48 weeks. But I expect the kind of magnitude of treatment effect on proteinuria and hematuria to remain. And I expect that as we get our Phase III data, we're going to expect to see this very high level of reduction in those kinds of parameters, of course, with GFR stabilization.
And will we get GFR data in this Phase II update as well?
You should be getting some GFR data. Just note that GFR is slow to move. So you want to look at it in the -- it's not something that's going to move in two weeks, but you will see more GFR data as well. The good news with renal medicine is as goes proteinuria, so goes GFR. So when you get good proteinuria reduction, you should see good GFR stabilization.
That's what I was going to ask, [ Translatability ] is pretty high. Okay. Great. All right. And then maybe just remind us, I mean, you've talked about platform and a product here potential for pove. So what are the other indications that you're focused on? And when could we start to see some more data from a pivotal setting there?
Yes. So on the last earnings call, we talked about the fact that Alpine did a really clever study design and had two basket studies that they initiated and we continue. The first basket is a renal basket. There's four diseases in there, IgAN, which we've already talked about. The IA, the interim analysis cohort for potential accelerated approval has already been enrolled. We expect to see pivotal data in the first half of next year and file soon thereafter.
The next one from that is membranous, and I expect the pivotal program to start in the back half of this year. There are two more studies in there, an ANCA-associated vasculitis, ANCA-associated nephritis study and a lupus nephritis study. And then in the RUBY-4, there are three hematologic conditions, ITP, cold agglutinin disease and warm hemolytic anemia, otherwise known as wAIHA. We are prioritizing IgAN and membranous out of RUBY-3 and we're prioritizing wAIHA out of RUBY-4.
We are also prioritizing, as I shared on the earnings call myasthenia, generalized myasthenia gravis. And what that means is for wAIHA prioritizing means that we are going to be awaiting the full Phase II cohort, which I expect towards the tail half of this year to make our decision on next steps. We've had a chance to see some of the emerging data, which looks good. And prioritizing for generalized myasthenia gravis means proceeding to a pivotal trial and we are going through our discussions with the FDA for what that looks like, and I'll be able to share more and when that starts in the coming months.
Okay. Great. Maybe just in the last couple of minutes here, the ALYFTREK launched. You mentioned this in your opening remarks, Reshma. Maybe just one thing is help frame for us some of the puts and takes on conversion. How does it compare U.S. versus rest of world as we watch the U.S.? Is that a good leading indicator for rest of world or maybe vice versa? And maybe, Duncan, it might be a better question for you.
Yes?
Sure. So as we communicated before, physicians are using ALYFTREK sort of in order of clinical unmet need, as you would expect and as they have done for our previous products. So they're prioritizing patients who are newly indicated to a CFTR modulator. Here in the U.S., that was 31 mutations, about 400 or so patients. ex U.S., that's a much larger number of patients. It's in the thousands, not in the hundreds. They're then obviously prioritizing those patients who discontinued off of CFTR modulator because, again, they're currently not benefiting from one of our medicines. And then last but not least, they're looking at transitioning the patients.
I would say that the transition of patients, again, is being done under the sort of profile of clinical unmet need, so where the physician believes that ALYFTREK may offer more efficacy where they believe that the patient has had some sort of tolerability profile with TRIKAFTA, they're transitioning those patients more quickly. There are obviously about 30,000 of them in the U.S. going to about 250 CF centers. So it takes a little bit of time for them to get through those patients.
And in terms of the U.S. versus rest of world dynamics, I'd make a couple of comments. Firstly, it's relatively early in our launches ex U.S. from a sort of post reimbursement point of view. And I made the second comment that the labels between TRIKAFTA and ALYFTREK differ between the U.S. to Europe, to the U.K., to Canada. They're all actually slightly different from each other. But the consequence of that does mean that in some of those jurisdictions, the liver monitoring burdens on ALYFTREK are much lower than they are here in the U.S. And so as a result of that, you might suggest that you would see more rapid transition of those patients where the label burdens are a little bit lower ex U.S. than they are in the U.S.
Great. Well, I think we're up against time. But thank you, Reshma. Thank you, Duncan, for your time today. Really appreciate it.
Terence, it's good to see you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals — Wells Fargo 20th Annual Healthcare Conference 2025
1. Question Answer
Great. Thank you very much for joining us today. It's right before the lunch session probably. My name is Mohit Bansal. I'm one of the biopharma analysts here at Wells Fargo, and I'm joined by Vertex team today. We have Susie Lisa, Head of Investor Relations; and we have Manisha Pai, she's Executive Director of Investor Relations at Vertex. Thank you very much for being here.
Thanks for having us.
Awesome. So maybe like -- before we get started, I mean, there's a lot to talk here. Can you talk a little bit about the -- to set the tone with like what is the discussion topics right now? And what you are excited about for next 6 months or 6 to 12 months, which investors should be focusing on?
Sure. So I think that it feels like it's always an exciting time at Vertex to be honest, right? Right now, we are executing very well, I think, on three ongoing launches with ALYFTREK, our fifth marketed CF medicine with CASGEVY for sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia, where we continue to make very nice steady progress. And then the early days of the JOURNAVX launch, the first non-opioid for pain, the first new therapy for pain -- acute pain in over 20 years, really exciting in terms of the progress we made, and I'm sure we'll get into that in some more detail.
So it's this new era of commercial diversification and commercial execution, which I think is off to a very good start, that combines with our historical excellence, I think, in terms of R&D execution and pipeline execution, right? So as I mentioned, fifth CF medicine, now diversified into three additional disease areas. And we have four ongoing Phase III studies as well as a fifth to start soon. So expanding into kidney diseases with two ongoing Phase IIIs for -- inaxaplin for APOL1-mediated kidney disease with Pove in immunoglobulin A nephropathy. We also are close to completing the enrollment and dosing in our Phase III study for the zimislecel, which is the old VX-880 for type 1 diabetes with truly outstanding effect.
And then we have our ongoing DPN Phase III studies for expanding into peripheral neuropathic pain indication. Then there's a pipeline behind that with products soon to be or currently initiating Phase II study, proof-of-concept studies in ADPKD, autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, as well as ongoing work in myotonic dystrophy type 1 in patients in the clinic and then more behind that. So I think combining those two areas of excellent execution, both in terms of R&D and our differentiated strategy focusing on sandbox diseases where we understand the causal biology and hopefully leads to greater rates of success as well as what is the early days of commercial and revenue diversification. It's a really exciting time.
Awesome. So maybe -- look, I mean, there's a lot going on. So I can go in any direction, but let's just begin with the second quarter call here. So there were two different topics, which kind of made people a little bit nervous and we saw that in the stock reaction as well. Can you talk a little bit about the regulatory discussions where, I mean, it was like again, you were discussing with the FDA that is there a path there, but can you talk a little bit more about for the investors like what you were discussing and how the discussions unfolding there...
Sure. I would say a big dislocation in the stock after the Q2 call. I think regardless really of the very good early data on our launches commercially and a really good financial quarter execution-wise. But I think the main disappointment that investors heard from the call was the fact that our next steps in terms of reaching the market commercially in the U.S. for peripheral neuropathic pain will be through a DPN, diabetic peripheral neuropathy indication and that we're starting imminently a second Phase III study there.
There are 10 million patients, 10 million-plus peripheral neuropathic pain patients in the U.S. And our goal is still ultimately a broad neuropathic pain label. But at our end of Phase II meeting at the end of July, the FDA had invited us in to talk about that potential. They have only ever previously granted single indications in peripheral neuropathic pain. We came in and had an excellent robust discussion, but it was clear that they weren't there in terms of granting a broad label with our proposal to do one DPN Phase III and one lumbosacral radiculopathy or LSR study, that would not lead to a broad PNP label.
They're still thinking more in terms of etiology, right? There are many different causes of peripheral neuropathic pain, toxins, cancer and metabolic diseases, et cetera. And so -- although we feel strongly that our mechanism of action addresses all these different causes and hence, our goal of a broad label, the FDA is not there yet. And so what was clear from that discussion is that doing as per their past history, two studies in one indication will lead to a label with that indication. And then subsequent follow-on studies, single study could lead to add-ons to that label. So hence, our decision to not proceed next with a Phase III in LSR but instead do a second Phase III in DPN to get that indication as quickly as possible and then add on from there.
We don't yet know the next steps. The FDA may be open pending additional considerations to smaller basket studies, maybe polyneuropathy or mono neuropathy or it may just make sense for us to go and do a single study in the next indication. That's the work that we're still ongoing. But we ultimately do see potential for the whole 10 million patient population, but very near-term focus on the 2 million plus that have diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and executing on those studies, which are well understood, well-trained clinical sites, understand the treatment effect, how to manage placebo effect, et cetera. And what we said is that we -- our plan is to complete enrollment in both of those Phase IIIs in DPN next year in 2026.
Got it. So the path for the broad indication is not closed yet, but you need the DPN as an anchor indication and then just build on that? Is that...
That's exactly right. And with high visibility on the pathway to DPN, which I think is some of what got lost. People felt that the feedback had been anti-suzetrigine or something, and that is in no way the case. And we have high visibility on the pathway in DPN and are going right about executing that as quickly as possible, with a goal still for the broader population over time, pathways still to be determined.
Got it. So again -- so that brings us to the second question. So how do you think about the -- like what you are doing to make sure that you have the highest probability of success in DPN trials given that if you look at Lyrica's history, it was hit or miss because the problem with these subjective trials is that placebo can be strange here. So what are you doing to make sure that it can -- you can -- you have the highest possibility [Technical Difficulty]?
Yes. Good question. I think that DPN is much better understood than say, LSR, which had never been a Phase III study in LSR, for example. There have been multiple Phase III studies in DPN. There are clinical trial sites that are well trained in the condition as well as how to manage placebo. There is a very well-understood magnitude of treatment effect for the active agent as well as the placebo arm. And by using these well-trained sites and established protocols and confidence in our mechanism of action, that's what leads us to high confidence in the probability of success for our studies.
Got it. So you have one trial which has actual control, but the other one is just placebo control, right?
That's correct. The second Phase III will be a little bit smaller because it will just have the placebo arm as per FDA protocol and what's required for the indication.
Got it. So can I talk a little bit about the time lines of this? Because one trial you have started earlier and then the second one, you are starting now. And I think we chatted before that, I mean, there is this trial conduct issue because you don't want a subjective trial to read one trial to read out us versus others. So how should we think about the time line at this point? Can you just make them together versus?
Sure. I don't have a full answer for you yet. All we have said is that we do expect to complete enrollment in both DPN Phase IIIs next year. The first one, you're correct, as you said, actually began in December of '24 and has been enrolling at a very fast pace. We're pleased with that. The second one will be slightly smaller. But we will be using -- to your prior question, we will be using the same well-trained sites to ensure probability of success.
So at some point, it becomes a decision as to which trial to allocate patients to. We may decide to accelerate and complete one. We may decide to manage them both at the end on a similar time frame, so you don't have to worry about ultimate results impacting the second study. But it's still to be determined, so I don't have an answer for you beyond completing enrollment in both next year.
Got it. Got it. But yes, like affecting the other trial state results because of the first trial readout could be a consideration?
That's right. That's right.
Very helpful. And then another topic is the 993 trial. I don't know if that was the main reason for the stock weakness. But again, that trial in the acute pain did not show a benefit. So it's supporting drug. So what is the takeaway internally from that trial? And how does this impact the new -- the peripheral neuropathy trial or DPN trial that you're running with 993 at this point?
Sure. So I think that what -- perhaps why there was -- what felt to us like a disproportion itself, I think it was primarily related to concerns about the ultimate peripheral neuropathic pain potential. But then in VX-993, a next-gen that was being studied in bunionectomy, in acute pain, we did see a similar size treatment effect but had hoped for more essentially based on what we had seen in terms of the potency and efficacy. But what we learned, and I think probably in hindsight on IR, we should have framed better, is that going higher up the curve did not get you greater treatment like essentially, we are getting all we can hope to get out of suzetrigine, out of JOURNAVX by inhibiting the NaV1.8 channel.
And -- although it is -- VX-993 certainly remains a viable option in acute pain for IV because it can be formulated as IV as well as potential combination use with the future NaV1.7 inhibitor as can JOURNAVX that we won't be advancing it in acute pain as monotherapy because we are getting what we need to get out of what we can get from inhibiting that channel with JOURNAVX but the ongoing Phase II in DPN, we'll run that study out with VX-993 so we learn about dose response curve. There is some accumulation and slight differences and added to the body of work.
But I think perhaps investors have seen what we've done in CF and thought perhaps serial innovation is very, very easy, and there's always an obvious next step, and this was more of to validate our belief in terms of what we're getting by inhibiting 1.8 and the potential to now move to inhibiting 1.7, which actually triggers the pain sensory reaction and then potentially combo use by inhibiting both the trigger and the propagator 1.8 that you could ideally have a synergistic effect. So that's the direction that serial innovation will take from here, so.
That's what you have done with CF as well, starting with KALYDECO and then adding on top of that, right? So that makes sense, actually. Let's just talk about like JOURNAVX a little bit. You were -- you have been open about first half is going to be volume driven and sales will come -- sales will follow the volume growth. Considering all that, I think second quarter was pretty good actually, at least in our opinion. How are you thinking about -- I mean, do you agree with that -- with the progress you have made at this point? And then talk a little bit about the sales effort that you're increasing for JOURNAVX launch at this point. I mean, was that already planned? Or is this a reflection of what you're seeing in the marketplace?
Yes. So thank you for that. We have been pleased with the early results. If you go back prior to launch, I think there were many, many who said, not you, many who said, you will never -- no one will ever pay for this when you can get generic opioids right for pennies on the day. And I think what we have proven is that, yes, Vertex does know what a PBM is and how to talk with them as well as the fact, more seriously, that there is a true unmet need for additional mechanisms of managing pain in the marketplace and a nonopioid option that doesn't have the side effects nor the addictive potential.
And so it is a long game that we're in for the long run here. And I think we've been pleased today with slightly faster than expected potentially progress with payers. So we have two of the three largest PBMs under contract, and we continue to expect we have high visibility on adding the third before the end of the year. We have the two largest hospital group purchasing organizations with contracts. And as of the Q2 call in early August, we said we have 16 state Medicaid plans and continue to make progress there as well.
So I think from a reimbursed access standpoint, it has been very good progress. The other important barometer is with respect to getting on hospital formulary, right, and going through the P&T committee process, which can take anywhere from 6 to 18 months, we've tried to accelerate that process where we can and are pleased there that we're on about -- a very good portion of hospitals either have us on formulary or discharge order sets or are ordering JOURNAVX as of this time. Then it is the field force reach, our virtual sales team reach and then our targeted media outreach.
And there too, I think that we are looking for the long-run success here and trying to build as broad a foundation as possible. So we're trying to go very broad, consistent with the labeling in terms of physician type, setting of care, pain type, et cetera. So we've been pleased with the breadth of physician prescribers that we've seen, anesthesiologists, pain specialists, general surgery, ER docs, orthopedic surgeons, et cetera. We've seen nice uptake from dentists, if you will. So really broad range there, and seeing good rates, it's still early, but good rates of repeat prescriptions as well. And that's where we are seeing things being promotionally sensitive.
And now that we have gotten to a point in time where we do see broader access in terms of reimbursed coverage as well as increasing formulary adoption, now is when it makes sense to add more from both a marketing and a field force standpoint. We want to think about the initial 150-person field force rep size that -- they'll continue their focus on the top 150 or so IDNs that we're focused on. But in terms of physicians, some of those in sort of -- they're covering Tier 1, beneath that was the virtual sales force, they'll move up more of them and the new team will cover those folks and then another bucket will come into the virtual -- the virtual sales force team.
So -- but to go out with that bigger sales force initially when you didn't have fully reimbursed coverage and you weren't on formularies, that probably would have been too soon. So we think that timing is what makes the most sense. But pleased with the breadth, with the physician reaction, with the patient anecdotes that we've heard. I think it's off to a really strong and encouraging start.
Great. Are you seeing usage outside of the hospital setting or surgical setting as well or mostly...
Well, maybe I don't understand your question, but...
Label is broad, right? So -- but I mean, your target is in the sport surgical setting at this point, but are you seeing usage outside of that as well at this point?
So the mix of the scripts is about 65% in that discharge at-home setting, and about 35% in the hospital or ASC setting, if I'm getting that. But then you do see, as I mentioned, the dental setting and some other things, if that's your question. But very strongly, I think given the concerns about opioids and pain management, we see a big role for this in at home post-surgical care.
Do you see a role for DTC campaign, things like that for these kinds of medicines?
I think in a very targeted, more direct-to-patient way. Today, if you are in an ER or you're looking online for information about a hip replacement, you're likely to hear from us about have you thought about your pain management strategy to. We have non-branded celebrity campaigns there with Alex Smith, a former professional quarterback, who had a horrible leg injury. Look for more on that front from us potentially in the branded capacity and more and more targeted ads through micro-targeting, think streaming services, et cetera, as opposed to the not a Super Bowl ad, that type of thing, but trying to be savvy and efficient with our spend, but doing more and more of that in addition to, as I mentioned -- as we mentioned on the Q2 call, the expanded sales force.
Got it. Very helpful. Thank you for that. So maybe -- again, anyone if you have questions on the call, please feel free to ask those questions. So let's just move to CF, the small business you have. So I think the business is strong, and I mean, you have a long tail as well. How should we think about the next leg of growth here? I mean ALYFTREK conversion is one.
I mean you did -- like that was also a missed thing from second quarter call that conversion actually accelerated for ALYFTREK as well in second quarter. But -- there is ALYFTREK, but again, do you -- you are well penetrated in those spaces. So where is the next set of growth coming from? And how should we think about ALYFTREK conversion going forward?
Sure. Thank you for the CF question. So I think we do see continued growth ahead for CF overall, while we don't give long-term guidance. Some of the drivers of that growth include new approvals and reimbursement, particularly in younger patients. So TRIKAFTA is approved down to 2 years old now, ALYFTREK down to 6 years old. We're working towards 1 to 2 for both of them, I believe. So getting down to younger patients' approvals and reimbursement, uptake still in our core markets as well as in some of the newer geographies that we started talking about this year.
Those are countries where we have relatively recently secured formal reimbursement where previously it was Named Patient Programs or things like that. And those are countries, let's say, like Brazil. And then, of course, the ALYFTREK global launch. So we're approved for 6 years and older in U.S., Europe, U.K. and Canada. OUS, we are still working through that reimbursement process, but that's to be expected. We have reimbursement in England, Ireland, Denmark and Germany, I believe, for ALYFTREK in Europe. And that's sort of how we see it. But also the overall market is growing as patients are living a lot longer than they used to partially thanks to CFTR modulators.
Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then with ALYFTREK, I mean -- so how should we think about the conversion? Because at one end, you have TRIKAFTA, which actually converted very quickly. I mean ALYFTREK is not on that trajectory, but obviously, the label update is probably one part of it. But how are you thinking about longer term? Will we get to a TRIKAFTA level? I mean internally, how you think about that? Because it is going up against a really good drug though?
Yes. Yes, absolutely. And -- so I think one thing to keep in mind is that when TRIKAFTA was approved, our first triple combination, we went from having medicines that could treat about 50% of patients to all of a sudden having one that could treat around 90% of patients at that point. So there was this large initial bolus, whereas the populations -- the patient populations for ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA largely overlap. There are some additional mutations that respond to ALYFTREK, but don't respond to TRIKAFTA. And some of the most rapid uptake in fact, that we've seen in the U.S. has been among those patients for whom they are newly eligible for a medicine now with the approval of ALYFTREK.
And then in terms of conversion, we do expect the majority of patients to switch from TRIKAFTA to ALYFTREK over time. In the U.S., we do have that additional liver monitoring requirement in the label, which is for the first 6 months of treatment, the patient has to have monthly liver monitoring, it's a simple blood test, you can get it done at your local Quest Labs or wherever, you don't have to go to the hospital. But it is a logistical consideration that patients are working through with their physicians and how to manage that with their day-to-day lives.
In the OUS markets, Canada, U.K. and Europe, there is no additional liver monitoring requirement in the label. So it's quarterly for the first year and annually thereafter. And one thing to add there. On the Q2 call, we talked about that uptake that we've seen to date. And as I mentioned, the most rapid uptake has been among those rare mutations that did not have access to a therapy before, followed by patients who discontinued a previous CFTR modulator, and we're no longer on treatment makes sense that these two populations would be in the front of the line there. But the vast majority of patients who are on ALYFTREK as of the 2Q call are patients who switched from TRIKAFTA because that is a much bigger pool to draw from. So we are pleased with the progress we're seeing on all three of those groups.
Got it. For a new patient, there's no reason to not go on ALYFTREK right now, probably. For new CF patient if needed?
Yes. Yes. I mean we do believe that ALYFTREK is the best CFTR modulator for eligible patients based on the data in the Phase III studies on CFTR function as well as the once-daily dosing. So yes, I would imagine that would be the choice.
And another question we get a lot and I'm sure you have received a lot. I mean, the MFN part of it. I mean, you were not among the companies which got the latter here, and you are catering to a rare disease here, even though you have a decent Medicaid exposure. So what is your internal thinking about -- there's not a lot of detail here, but again, we'd love to know what you are saying?
Yes. I think a lot of advocacy work on our part behind the scenes, trying to stay as up to date and understand and being planful in advance, which can be challenging given lack of details. But we were not one of the initial 17 that received a letter. I think fundamentally, part of our view is that by focusing on serious diseases and trying to deliver transformative effect that, that ultimately can position you better overall in terms of any type of reimbursement or pricing pressure, if you will, and that would continue to be our hope, but it really is a stay tuned, but we remain very active in D.C. as well as very active planning for whatever potentially might happen.
Got it. Very helpful. So maybe let's just move on to the other exciting pipeline, the kidney space, right? I mean, you have made good strides there, two major trials are reading out next year. So let's just start with Pove. Pove in IgA nephropathy. You have like so far with early data look best-in-class, but at the same time, it is a crowded market. So how are you thinking about your drug, would you be able to differentiate on the proteinuria alone? Or how should we think about when we see the data and your confidence level in terms of positioning of this drug?
Yes. I think that we -- as I mentioned, we have this very rigorous sandbox disease approach and understanding the causal biology. I think as the science developed around B-cell mediated diseases, that we did a very thorough survey of the landscape and understanding the data and the candidates and I think, felt strongly that Alpine Immune Sciences and Pove offered the best opportunity for differentiated B-cell control and hence, the acquisition in April of last year. And with respect to IgAN, I think also in understanding that in this type of market where patients can switch, right, that it isn't always a first entrant that ends up with dominant share.
And our hope is to be best-in-class, if you will, on two significant buckets. One is the clinical data and the differentiation. And secondly are the patient-centric factors. And so in terms of the clinical data, we think the dual inhibition of BAFF and APRIL and the targeted design of Pove, the data preclinically and clinically, yes, we're still early in terms of showing only Phase II data, but we have seen differentiation in terms of depth of response with greater reductions in UPCR, and we would hope to be able to sustain that in our Phase III study.
We've been pleased with the pace of enrollment. We said that we had completed the interim analysis cohort enrollment on our May call. And then with 36 weeks of follow-up from that, that would position us to release data on the interim analysis in the first half of '26. And on the Q2 call, we said that we expect to complete enrollment of the full study by the end of this year. So I think seeing good receptivity from physicians and that can always, I think, be an encouraging biomarker of underlying optimism or demand for the product. So we'd hope to continue to sustain that depth of response and best-in-class profile of optimal B-cell control.
And on the patient-centric factors, feel we're also differentiated with lower dose, lower dose subcu auto injector at home only every 4 weeks. And so having the combination of those factors plus the best B-cell control, we hope would lead us to a differentiated profile. We also hope to have multiple indications. So nephrologists wouldn't have to learn different meds for different indications and go from there. I think a strong understanding internally of this type of market as well as the kidney space is what led us to the Alpine acquisition, and we continue to only be more and more encouraged by that deal as time goes on.
Got it. That's very helpful. Maybe like can you please set the tone for the other Phase II readout, and I don't know if it is next year, but again, you plan to finish enrollment this year, so it's like 1-year for the inaxaplin data. So can you help us understand like what to expect when we see the data next year or maybe early 2027.
For inaxaplin?
Yes.
Sure. So inaxaplin is our ongoing Phase III study in APOL1-mediated kidney disease. And this, I should have mentioned, IgAN made a significant patient population. I think it's north of 300,000 in U.S. and Europe, north of 1 million globally, and we've partnered with Zai Lab in China and area regions and then in Japan and associated regions there, so -- and are seeing good uptake there. With the IgAN with APOL1-mediated kidney disease, excuse me, about 250,000 patients, both in sort of primary AMKD, if you will, and then those with comorbidities.
And that study is on track to complete its interim analysis cohort enrollment by the end of this year. And once that is completed, then it is 48 weeks of follow-up before we can have the interim analysis. So depending on timing, we'd be hopeful you could see data next year, but still need to determine when that final patient in the interim analysis cohort is enrolled. And really no competition here, nothing that's going after the causal biology of this disease. We saw a very compelling Phase II data and would hope to continue to see that.
I think to -- we've been encouraged by the uptick in the pace of enrollment, which led us to giving this milestone to complete the IA cohort enrollment because of all of our great work in terms of developing this market and awareness and trust with this community, given that it's the disease of those of African descent, so working with Alonzo Mourning, the NBA All-Star who had the disease and needed a kidney transplant, but working with community groups, church groups, et cetera, and that -- as well as physician awareness and opening additional trial sites has led to the accelerated enrollment.
Got it. Very, very helpful. And then you have some of the proof-of-concept trials as well for some of the assets like 407, 670 in DM1. So can you talk a little bit about the timing of those if you have disclosed that?
Yes, sure. So VX-670, we're studying it, as you said, in myotonic dystrophy type 1, or DM1, that's in a Phase I/II single ascending dose, multiple ascending dose study in patients. We are in the MAD portion now, and we expect to complete enrollment and dosing in the first half of 2026. And then for VX-407 in a subset of ADPKD patients, we are in the process of initiating the Phase II proof-of-concept study. If I could also go back to Pove for a second, Mohit, that we've talked about primary membranous nephropathy, where we began a Phase III study by -- in the second half of this year.
And then on the Q2 call, we said that we have identified additional indications, one in wAIHA and then also in generalized myasthenia gravis. And so different phases there. We'll let the full set of RUBY-4 data mature through the end of the year before next steps in wAIHA but are excited about that in warm autoimmune. Let's just leave it at wAIHA, sorry. And that's probably about 35,000 patients here in the U.S. and Europe. So an interesting opportunity. And then in generalized myasthenia gravis, next up will be go to FDA and talk to them about what the next steps need to be there.
I feel like a Pove Analyst Day is coming with like a big slide deck of 50 slides probably at this point.
I think that we're excited for the American Society of Nephrology in November and stay tuned.
Got it. Very helpful. Okay. So last question. I ask this question to everyone. So fast forward 1 year, I hope you are sitting here, I hope I'm sitting here, and asking this question, what would make you look back at the year and say it was a great year for us?
I think that it will be continued growth and expansion in new patient groups in CF, that you will see continued patient uptake in CASGEVY, where we've been pleased there and expansion into the Middle East, as you have seen. JOURNAVX with full reimbursed coverage in the U.S., right? We mentioned 150 million lives on the Q2 call in the U.S., 85 million of those with no prior authorization and no step edit. So continuing to grow that number and getting closer to full coverage or being there and having been able to pull back the patient support programs that we're currently offering.
So recognizing significant revenue from that, from all three of those disease areas. And then having great data in hand, potentially from the -- from Pove and IgAN initially or getting close to the data release, if you will, in AMKD, and having regulatory filings in T1D. And I think that's enough to get us started, but yes. But a lot of really exciting milestones between -- over the next 12 to 18 months at Vertex and looking for continued excellent commercialization execution.
On that high note, thank you very much for coming here.
Thank you. Thank you again.
Financial data from Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
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.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Free
| Jun '26 |
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%
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| Revenue | 12,587 12,587 |
10%
10%
100%
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| - Direct Costs | 1,763 1,763 |
11%
11%
14%
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| Gross Profit | 10,824 10,824 |
10%
10%
86%
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| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 2,008 2,008 |
28%
28%
16%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | 3,907 3,907 |
2%
2%
31%
|
|
| EBITDA | 5,132 5,132 |
11%
11%
41%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 222 222 |
11%
11%
2%
|
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| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 4,910 4,910 |
11%
11%
39%
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| Net Profit | 4,405 4,405 |
21%
21%
35%
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In millions USD.
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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Stock News
Company Profile
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. engages in the business of discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing small molecule drugs for patients with serious diseases. It focuses on development and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis, infectious diseases including viral infections such as influenza and bacterial infections, autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, cancer, inflammatory bowel disease and neurological disorders including pain and multiple sclerosis. The company was founded by Joshua S. Boger in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, MA.
StocksGuide Free
| Head office | United States |
| CEO | Dr. Kewalramani |
| Employees | 6,400 |
| Founded | 1989 |
| Website | www.vrtx.com |


