Duke Energy Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Invest better with AI
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👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
👉 Clear answers to your questions
Invest better with AI
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👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
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Is Duke Energy a Top Scorer Stock based on the Dividend, High-Growth-Investing or Leverman Strategy?
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = $91.64b | Revenue (TTM) = $33.25b
Market Cap = $91.64b | Estimated Revenue = $34.01b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = $182.20b | Revenue (TTM) = $33.25b
Enterprise Value = $182.20b | Forward Revenue = $34.01b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Duke Energy Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
27 Analysts have issued a Duke Energy forecast:
Analyst Opinions
27 Analysts have issued a Duke Energy forecast:
Duke Energy Events
Past Events
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AUG
4
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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MAY
5
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
5 months ago
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FEB
10
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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NOV
7
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
11 months ago
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Duke Energy — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
[Audio Gap] projects we have secured under ESAs. Growth continues to define our service territories. CNBC recently named Ohio, the top state for business with 4 of our states ranked in the top 10 and North Carolina was recognized as the top economy for its strong economic and job growth. To meet this record demand and to continue long-term value for our customers, communities and shareholders, we're executing on the industry's largest regulated capital plan, deploying more than $1 billion per month. We are laser-focused on disciplined execution and responsible financial stewardship as our priority has been and always will be providing customers reliable power at the lowest possible cost.
Moving to Slide 5. We are advancing our strategic priorities, including regulatory execution. Last month, we were pleased to reach a comprehensive settlement with North Carolina Public staff and other interveners in our DEC rate case building on our long track record of collaborating with stakeholders to achieve constructive regulatory outcomes. This agreement demonstrates our commitment to cost effectively serve our customers while continuing to support investments needed to improve reliability and modernize our generation fleet. The settlement includes a 9.8% ROE 53% equity capital structure and the continuation of the multiyear rate plan framework. The agreement also retains the earnings sharing mechanism that allows us to earn 50 basis points above the allowed ROE up to 10.3%.
Finally, we agreed to pursue discussions with intervenors to reach a substantially similar settlement framework for the DEP rate case. Discussions are ongoing, and we'll update you on the progress in the coming weeks as we prepare for the hearing scheduled for August 11. If approved by the commission, revised customer rates are expected to remain below the national average, we expect orders on both cases by mid-November. As outlined on Slide 6, we continue to use every tool we can to manage costs for our customers while delivering the high quality of service they expect.
Building on the tax credit sale agreement and the DEC, DEP combination savings we highlighted in Q1, we pursued an innovative strategy for the accelerated flowback of tax credit for a Florida battery product that will go online next year. By recognizing the tax credits in 1 year rather than over the life of the project, we're offsetting a base rate increase for customers in Q2. We also submitted an application for Department of Energy loans in May, which could represent billions of dollars of customer savings through reduced interest costs on eligible projects.
We recently introduced the Customer Protection Plus commitment, which reinforces the way we've already been doing business with large customers and reflects the terms of large load tariffs progressing in our jurisdictions. Our contracts ensure large users of energy pay the costs of serving their facilities, and these projects are expected to deliver billions of dollars and benefits for existing customers over time. The commitment is built on 3 core priorities: preserve reliability, power responsible growth and produce shared value, and it aligns with the goal of the Ratepayer protection pledge, which we signed in late July, joining many of the hyperscale customers we serve.
We appreciate our customers' engagement and the strong alignment across industries on this timely issue. We are also proud of our long-standing track record in cost efficiency, which is driven by a culture of continuous improvement. In 2025, we ranked third amongst our electric industry peers for nongeneration O&M per customer and our efforts to manage our cost structure, strengthen our ability to deliver for both customers and shareholders. We've always put customers first. And through these long-term commitments, financial protections and careful planning, we're working to ensure growth supports reliability and creates lasting value.
Slide 7 shows our continued progress on our record generation build, now on track to add 15 gigawatts of capacity by 2031, which reflects additions from our latest 10-year site plan in Florida. Starting with regulatory updates. We recently concluded hearings in North Carolina on the 2025 Carolinas Resource Plan. With newly signed ESAs, the low forecast has increased to the high load scenario, which further confirms our view that all near-term resources in the Carolinas are needed. We expect an order from the North Carolina Commission by year-end. As we look ahead, the Carolinas resource plan underscores the role nuclear will play in our all-of-the-above strategy.
As the operator of the largest regulated fleet in the U.S., we continue to see significant value in our existing nuclear fleet as we complete uprates and work to extend the lives of our existing units. We have subsequent license renewals approved by the NRC for 2 of our plants, and we're preparing to file the SLR application for the Brunswick nuclear plant by the end of the year. We are also evaluating the potential for new nuclear to meet future demand. We want to continue to emphasize that additional financial protections are needed before we would propose a new nuclear project.
Any structure to advance new nuclear must address first-of-a-kind in supply chain risks, provide financial risk protection for our serotonin our investors and ensure a strong balance sheet during the construction cycle. And lastly, we're executing on the construction of new dispatchable capacity, including increasing the number of gas turbines available under our frame Mark agreement with GE Renova to 26 to align with the next phase of build in the IRPs. The first turbine was delivered to our person County combined cycle site in July and the second will be delivered later this year.
Our gas portfolio has approximately 5 gigawatts under construction and an additional 2.5 gigawatts advancing through development. We've contracted with EPC partners, and we're closely monitoring construction milestones enabling us to check and adjust in real time. As we continue to scale, we will work with our EPCs to ensure crews can seamlessly move from 1 project to the next, and we're prepared to leverage operating learnings and efficiencies and built throughout the construction cycle. We're moving with speed and agility to ensure we complete these projects on time and on budget, maximizing the value for those we serve. We have significant construction experience and our scope and scale give us full confidence in our ability to execute the work ahead.
With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 8, we continue to execute our strategy at an accelerated pace while delivering strong growth with reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.38 and $1.43, respectively, compared with $1.25 for both reported and adjusted earnings per share in the prior year. Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.15, driven by continued customer growth as well as infrastructure investments to reliably serve our growing jurisdictions. These drivers were partially offset by higher depreciation expense associated with our growing asset base and higher interest expense.
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure was largely flat year-over-year, consistent with expectations in the shoulder quarter. Finally, the other segment was up $0.03 compared to the prior year, primarily due to the expected benefit of lower interest expense resulting from the Tennessee and Florida transaction proceeds, which have reduced holding company financing needs as well as higher market returns. Favorable weather has also contributed to our strong results through midyear with a colder-than-normal first quarter, then quickly shifting to a hot second quarter. Our generating assets performed well during these periods of high demand contributing positively to our results.
As we look forward to the back half of the year, we may have the opportunity to reinvest some of the weather benefits back into our generating facilities to ensure these assets continue operating well for our customers. This would be consistent with our demonstrated ability to exercise O&M agility in both directions over the past several years. The robust growth in the quarter is a result of accelerating execution of our strategy, and the strength of our fully regulated utility model, which serves attractive jurisdictions with vibrant economies and constructive regulatory environments across the Southeast and Midwest. Overall, we are extremely pleased with our performance through the first half of 2026 and are firmly on track to achieve full year results within our EPS guidance range.
Turning to Slide 9. We continue to progress additional large load projects through the pipeline. We have now secured 7.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers. The Customer Protection Plus commitment we announced in July reinforces the foundation from which we engage with large load customers. The EDs we signed, protected existing customers today and deliver value for everyone over time as fixed costs are spread over a larger base.
Beyond data center activity, we continue to see strong interest from a diverse set of commercial and industrial sectors, including life sciences and advanced manufacturing. In just the first half of this year, we've secured economic development wins representing $5 billion of investment supporting over 9,000 jobs across our service territories. This broad-based economic development success provides us with increasing confidence in our long-term loan growth projections and underscores the need to bring additional generation onto the system to reliably serve our customers.
Moving to Slide 10. Our teams are working with prospective customers to advance large-load projects. And we continue to expect the remainder of the 15.4 gigawatt pipeline to be converted to ESAs by the first half of 2027. As Harry mentioned, the contracts we've signed to date in the Carolinas have increased the load forecast to the high load case. We continue to advance our late-stage pipelines in other jurisdictions as well. As additional contracts are signed, there was $5 billion to $10 billion of upside to our current 5-year capital plan to support additional generation and transmission needs, particularly in Indiana and Florida. Our first priority will always be to protect existing customers and ensure large loads provide value to the system. We look forward to sharing more as the pipeline advances over the coming quarters.
As you can see on the right side of the slide, customers are also making strong progress building their facilities with several moving to vertical construction. We continue to expect these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028 and ramp into their full contracted load through the early 2030s. And Infrastructure to support these customers is on track. As a reminder, our contracts contain minimum take provisions, which serve as the basis for revenue growth projections. This is just one of the many ways we are protecting existing customers while ensuring the growth ahead provides shared benefits for all.
Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 11. We -- we are on track to achieve our FFO to debt target of 14.5% for the year. Longer term, we expect to reach 15% FFO to debt as additional proceeds from the DEF minority interest investment are received. This FFO to debt target has substantial cushion to our downgrade thresholds, provides financial flexibility and serves as a solid foundation as growth accelerates later in the 5-year plan. We've also priced $600 million under the ATM program so far this year, which will settle at the end of 2027. We are taking a proactive approach to equity funding, locking an attractive pricing today to derisk our future equity needs.
Finally, we understand the importance of the dividend for our investors. In July, we increased our quarterly dividend payment, marking over 20 years of consecutive annual dividend increases. The 2% increase is consistent with growth in recent years and shows our ongoing commitment to growing the dividend.
Let me close with Slide 12. We are executing our strategy to seize growth opportunities, expand our generation fleet, work with stakeholders to reach constructive regulatory outlines that support critical investments while keeping costs as low as possible. We are on track to achieve our 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2030 and with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. We have an extensive runway of capital investments that continue to produce value for customers and position us to deliver on our growth targets, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.
With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourezza with Wells Fargo.
2. Question Answer
Harry, obviously, you guys are highlighting additional CapEx up to $10 billion. You've got 15 gigawatts in late stages. You're already sort of at the top end of the EPS care. I guess how are you thinking about the 3Q update? Is there a point where we could see some upward pressure in the CAGR? And how -- I guess, how are you thinking about messaging around that, especially as many of your peers are now focusing on the plus part in their growth ranges. Can you maybe provide an out-of-cycle update as we're heading into Q3, like some of your peers?
Yes, Shar. Yes, we have a high degree of confidence in the 5% to 7% in the top half of that range, starting in 2018 when some of these loads start coming on and ramping. As you know, this is a very dynamic environment that we have. We feel very good about our 15 gigawatts pipeline. They're advancing. But these negotiations are taking a little longer at times because they're very complicated transactions. So we want to continue to work through that. We feel very confident we'd be able to land more of those. We're looking at landing all of that 15 gigawatts by the first half of next year, and we're on track to do that. And we'll continue to evaluate where we need to be on our earnings per share growth rate, and we typically update that in the fourth quarter. But if anything changes materially, like we did last year, we'll update you on that as we see fit.
But our focus right now is to continue executing getting those large loads signed to ERAs, making sure they're protecting our customers and paying their way as they go forward.
Got it. That's helpful. And then just maybe sticking with Diana. There's been obviously a lot of rhetoric in the state around affordability. You've seen what's happening in the commissions. So I guess with the potential opportunities that you guys have to serve that large load would you guys consider Janco type structure just given the benefits around maybe bypassing the CPCN process and flowing the savings back to customers a lot more visibly? I guess how are conversations evolving around that structure?
Yes, Shar. Affordability is top of mind. Our customers are struggling with gasoline prices, rent prices, health care prices. So we share a commission as well as the governor's focus on affordability and making sure that customers are protected from these large loads and that we're providing reliable service and low-cost service to our customers, and we'll continue to do that. On the Genco side, we are looking at that. We have looked at that in detail in the past and didn't feel like we were needing that to accomplish what we're doing. But as these large loads are signed, that may be something that we're going to revisit in the future to be able to provide financing as well as another layer of protection for our customers. So we'll continue to monitor that. And as these pipelines advance, we'll look into that deeper.
Your next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays.
Just on the potential of $5 billion to $10 billion of additional capital for the large load in Florida and Indiana. I guess just as you guys or as we prepare for the roll forward in another 5 years? Just how much of that do you think is eligible for like a 5-year plan versus being kind of well into the mid-2030s. How much of the $5 billion to $10 billion should we be thinking about to make its way into the roll forward?
Yes, Nick, it's a great question. And when we bracketed the $5 billion to $10 billion, we contemplated this is within the current 5-year plan. So we're going to roll for the plan in February, which, obviously, capital is accelerating as we are investing more into the late part of the decade than we are right now. But this is incremental to that. So think about this as the 4 years left in the 5-year plan that we're executing today as capital upsides. And that will be triggered when the ESAs are signed and the requisite generation and transmission is modeled for those contracts.
Okay. Great. No, I appreciate that. And then I guess just maybe on the execution side, you're already kind of executing and constructing 5 gigawatts of gen projects and I guess many in the industry are going to be doing similar things in the coming years. So just any bottlenecks or issues you're seeing and how you're addressing those and kind of looking forward to the gas gen build that we're going to see what should we be prepared for?
Yes, Nick, building things has always been in Duke's DNA, and we're really good at it. We've never stopped building things throughout the last couple of decades. We've been building gas plants and other facilities. So we feel this is a strength for us and a competency for us. But we've been planning for this generation build cycle for many years. We've put in programs, programmatic ways of doing this with EPC contracts where we're using 1 EPC vendor in the Carolinas to be able to move the resources from site to site -- we're buying the same materials so the sites are identical, which gives us opportunities for synergies and how we build these things, both on the cost side but also on making sure that the schedule is met and the quality is met.
So we feel really good about our plan and our ability to execute as well as the oversight that we're putting in using AI tools to monitor construction deadlines and progress. So we feel really good that we're going to be able to deliver reliable service for our customers and also do it at a low cost way.
Your next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.
Maybe just to kick off a little bit more on Indiana. I set expectations if you can? Obviously, we're having some hearings later this week on the backdrop of affordability and implications. I'd just love your open-ended comments on that front, if you can hear just at the outset. I really love to hear a little bit more on that specifically, if you can, especially given you guys are earlier in the slate of contemplated cases.
Yes. Good question, Julian, like I said earlier, we share the commission and the governor's focus on affordability and transparency for customer communications. What came out of their their hearings that they had and their listening sessions. We have the same goals in mind. We want to make sure that we support our customers with reliable service. We want to do it at the lowest cost possible. So we're looking like we always have to collaborate with the commission and other intervening parties as we go through the affordability report, and we plan for our upcoming MRP filing. We start in a strong position. We have great reliability.
We have great storm response. We have low cost in Indiana. We're very active in economic development in the state and been successful in bringing jobs and other tax benefits to the communities that we serve, and we continue to do that. We feel the governor and the commission and other intervening parties want to continue Indiana's business environment, a productive environment and make sure that they're bringing in jobs and economic development. So we feel like we're going to be successful because we all have the same goals in mind.
Awesome. And I know you commented a little bit here about the new nuclear efforts here. But can you expand a little bit on how you all see us coming together. Obviously, you articulated the near-term progress on the application, et cetera. But how does this come together practically? Again, I know folks are really at times myopically focused on the subject, but I want to hear you guys on set expectations to road ahead a little bit especially from a commercial perspective here of late. And we've seen a few different headlines, especially out of the administration. Just saturate on how -- from your vantage point, what we should be expecting?
So Julien, we're focused on 2 things. Obviously, we're focusing on maximizing our current assets. We're doing about 300 megawatts of uprates to our current units, and we're extending the licenses to an additional 20 years to 80 years life. We have 2 of them already approved by the NRC and filing the third 1 by the end of this year. So that's our focus. On the nuclear side, we're focused on working with government officials, state officials, hyperscalers and other stakeholders to see what can be done to offset the risk, the financial risks and overrun risks that are out there from a new project. And we will not move forward until we have a good plan on how we can offset that risk to protect our customers as well as our investors from any overruns that we have.
So those discussions are continuing. The federal government has been very open to discussions and creative solutions, and we'll continue to have those discussions as we move forward. But we're not in a position yet to make a decision on new nuclear.
Excellent. And the time line and even seeing commercial outcomes there. I mean, again, there's all sorts of noise in the system around this, if you set any kind of expectation on this. And obviously, you're doing the uprate successor, but on the corn and nuclear?
Yes. We're focused on going through the process and making sure that we can offset that risk no real time line and we're not putting ourselves under pressure of a time line. We want to make sure that we offset the risk first and foremost. SP541324311 Excellent. Nice said. I appreciate the guys. See you soon, all right, all the best.
Your next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe just to start on the large load opportunity that you've highlighted in Indiana and Florida. Have you provided any geographic breakdown in that high confidence load pipeline in terms of how many gigawatts are in those 2 states versus the Carolinas?
Yes. That's our entire late-stage pipeline. I would say the majority of it is in Florida and Indiana, but we have not broken it down specifically. There's still some additional opportunities in the Carolinas as well as Ohio and Kentucky. Brian, I don't know if you want to add anything.
No, I think that nailed is too.
Great. Okay. And then just on the additional 6 gas turbines that you secured this quarter as you think about the next phase of resource needs. Are you also in progress on figuring the gas supply for any incremental gas plants as part of that next phase -- and is that something you could see as a potential constraint to the build-out?
Yes. But that's also part of our planning as we're laying out both the supply chain side, the fuel side, the labor side, so we have a team that works on advanced planning for gas supply for the new generation that we're going to need. So we have all the gas that we need through the early 2030s secured, and we continue to work with our vendors on providing additional gas beyond that. And we feel confident that we'll be able to nail that down as those generation projects get further in their build.
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with Truist Richard.
Keeping -- given the HCM progress year-to-date, are you thinking about pacing future equity? And would you consider doing something upfront to derisk outer years of your plan? .
Richard, we're being very opportunistic with the equity issuances. And like I mentioned in my remarks, locking an attractive pricing when the market is there for us. So you could see us continuing to leverage the ATM as we move through the plan the DRIP program and being smart about equity issues over time, but no large block equity planned in our 5-year plan.
Got it. That's helpful. And then a separate element on India, and I think there's been some talk around sale of the Kausik plant. Can you offer any update on that and how that might fit with the state goals?
Yes. So as part of the settlement to build the natural gas facility that we're building there, we offered up a study on what it would take to continue to operate that facility and sell it to a third party. So that study just came in last month, so it's being evaluated and then we'll determine what we need to do with that going forward. Our focus is on getting that gas plant up and running, and then we'll see what happens with the coal plant from there.
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. .
So just first a follow-up on the new nuclear. The -- any kind of update in your thoughts between AP1000 large-scale versus SMR? And just can you confirm whether you're involved in this long lead time kind of deal?
Steve, on your first part, we're keeping our options open. We filed an early site application for SMRs at our Belews Creek facility. We're involved with OPG's project up in Toronto, monitoring their progress and any learnings there. And we're also we do have a colo license at our lead facility for 2 AP1000, so we continue to look at that as well. So we're keeping options open. Again, our main focus is how do we offset the financial risks for our customers and our investors. I would say that the AP1000 just because of the size and the need of generation that we have seems to be in the lead. But again, we're working on analysis and making sure we can offtake the risk for financial risks. The DOE has not shared which utilities are participating in their latest announcement, but we're very glad that they're looking at those type of arrangements to derisk some of the supply chain for future nuclear, and we continue to have discussions with the government on offtaking that risk of financial risk.
Okay. And then separate question, I guess, for Brian on just thinking about the long-term cash flow of the company. It seems like you're capturing a lot of the tax credit cash flow from the nuclear and the batteries in the near term. What happens in later years? Does that roll down and then kind of the cash flow from recovery of all these new investments ramps up and so does cash flow stay stable, rising. Just how should we think about the kind of the shape of cash flow?
That's very good, Steve. And it's something I'm laser-focused on. So the cash flow earnings power of Duke has increased materially. And you think about a low point in 2022 when the fuel crisis was upon us. And as we look out in time, we're flowing tax credits back to customers on an accelerated pace. And it's going to catch up with earning the tax credits kind of late in the '20s. So 2028, 2029, we about hit parity on the nuclear PTCs, which is a huge contributor to the tax credit profile of Duke, and it's going to save cost for customers. And as we get into the early 30s, that will turn.
But like you said the earnings power on the investments we're making will more than offset that. So the cash generation continues to grow, and it's durable well into the late 30s. So I don't see any slowing down of the cash flow, but it does change complexion from earning some tax credits now to earnings on the returns -- earning the returns on the investments later.
This concludes the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Harry Sideris for closing remarks. Harry, please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you. And to close today's call, I'd like to underscore how proud I am of the results we just delivered in the first half of this year. We are fully focused on execution, advancing our strategy to seize the once-in-a-generation growth opportunity and create value for our customers and investors that we just talked about. We are well positioned for a strong 2020 and I am confident in our ability to earn in the top half of our 5% to 7% EPS growth range beginning in 2028 as we discussed earlier. And our plan is durable well into the future.
So thank you for joining us today. Thank you for your questions, and thank you for choosing to invest in Duke Energy. Have a great day.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
Duke Energy — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Duke Energy — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Strong quarter and reaffirmed guidance as Duke accelerates a multi‑year, regulated capital build while securing regulatory settlements to protect customers.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Adjusted EPS: $1.43 this quarter vs $1.25 a year ago (adjusted earnings per share).
- Reported EPS: $1.38 vs $1.25 prior year.
- Capital Pace: Deploying >$1 billion per month under the regulated capital program.
- Large-load wins: 7.8 GW of electric service agreements (ESAs) secured; 15.4 GW late‑stage pipeline.
- Regulatory deal: North Carolina DEC settlement: 9.8% allowed ROE, 53% equity ratio and earnings sharing up to 10.3%.
🎯 What Management Says
- Execution focus: Prioritizing disciplined delivery of a massive regulated build to meet customer demand while controlling operating and financing costs.
- Customer protections: Introduced "Customer Protection Plus" and used tax‑credit acceleration to offset near‑term rate impacts for customers.
- Generation strategy: Scaling gas projects (≈5 GW under construction + 2.5 GW in development) and extending/ uprating nuclear assets; new nuclear only if first‑of‑a‑kind risks are mitigated.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- 2026 EPS guide: On track for $6.55–$6.80; reiterated 5%–7% EPS CAGR through 2030 and aim to be in top half of that range starting 2028.
- Balance sheet targets: FFO (Funds From Operations) to debt target ~14.5% for year, long‑term ~15%; proactive equity issuance via ATM used to derisk.
- Timelines: Expect NC/DEP orders by mid‑November and conversion of late‑stage ESAs by H1 2027; $5–$10B possible incremental capex inside the current 5‑year plan.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Growth vs. guidance: Analysts pressed on upside from new ESAs; management is confident in the 5%–7% plan but will update guidance in Q4 or sooner if material.
- Affordability/regulatory risk: Regulators' focus on affordability (Indiana, Carolinas, Florida) spurred questions on alternative structures (Genco/JV); company is evaluating but emphasizes customer protections.
- Nuclear & execution: Questions on new nuclear vs SMR/AP1000 and construction bottlenecks; management keeps options open, seeks federal/state risk‑sharing before committing, and says programmatic EPC approaches mitigate execution risks.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Implication: Duke is a growth‑heavy, regulated utility with de‑risking steps (regulatory settlements, customer protections, balance‑sheet targets) that support its multi‑year build and steady dividend growth, but execution and affordability/regulatory scrutiny remain the main near‑term risks for investors.
Duke Energy — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Duke Energy First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Mike Switzer, Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Mike, please go ahead.
Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Harry Sideris, President and CEO; along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO.
Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings.
The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
With that, let me turn the call over to Harry.
2. Question Answer
Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to be with you to share our results on the continued progress we're making on our strategic priorities. Today, we announced first quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.93, which builds on our momentum from last year and marks a strong start to the year. These results are primarily driven by critical infrastructure investments to meet growing customer demand in our service territories.
We are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030. And we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs.
Our growth is strong. Economically attractive jurisdictions is underpinned by the industry's largest regulated capital plan, efficient recovery mechanisms and a long track record of constructive regulatory outcomes, and we continue to see strong fundamentals across our business. In the first quarter, we achieved key strategic milestones in support of the growing states we serve. With every investment, we're ensuring the dollars deliver long-term value for our customers and communities. We will continue to execute this strategy with discipline and look forward to updating you throughout the year.
As we invest in our system, I want to underscore that our priority has been and always will be providing customers reliable power at the lowest possible cost. As a result of this unwavering focus, our rates are below the national average and have risen below the pace of inflation. We continue to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers, including leveraging our scope and scale to achieve top-tier cost management.
As shown on Slide 5, I'm pleased to announce 2 major accomplishments that will provide more than $5 billion of customer benefits, further demonstrating our sustained commitment to providing customer value. First, last week, we reached a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits expected to be generated through 2028. The proceeds will flow back to customers to support keeping rates as low as possible. We also received all regulatory approvals, including from FERC, North Carolina and South Carolina regulators for the proposed combination of our 2 Carolina utilities. Combining these utilities will enable us to meet the Carolinas growing energy needs more efficiently with estimated customer savings of $2.3 billion through 2040. With these approvals, we're working towards an effective date of January 1, 2027.
Our customers remain our top priority, and we will continue to utilize every tool available to keep rates as low as possible.
We had several other significant accomplishments in the first few months of 2026, which are outlined on Slide 6. Starting with the 2 strategic transactions announced last year. We closed on the first tranche of Brookfield's minority investment in Duke Energy Florida in early March, receiving $2.8 billion in cash proceeds for a 9.2% interest in our Florida utility. Several weeks later, we completed the sale of our Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee business to Spire for $2.5 billion. The more than $5 billion in proceeds strengthen our credit profile and help cost effectively fund our $103 billion capital plan as we invest for the benefit of our customers.
Moving to economic development. we continue to seize the growth in our attractive regions driven by innovation in AI technologies and advanced manufacturing. Since the fourth quarter call, we've signed an additional 2.7 gigawatts of ESAs with data center customers, bringing our total executed agreements to approximately 7.6 gigawatts, nearly 2/3 of which are already under construction. We recognize that we're in a once in a generation build cycle and have been collaborating with state and local officials, policymakers and regulators to attract these investments to our communities while protecting our existing customers.
We've taken a leading role in developing contract structures that establish greater certainty for planning and ensure that new large customers pay their fair share of the overall system costs. Contracts include minimum demand provisions, credit support, refundable capital advances and termination charges. Importantly, these incremental volumes will benefit all customers over the life of the contract as system costs are spread over a larger base. For decades, our teammates have had the privilege of living and working alongside the customers we serve, and that experience has made community engagement and core competency in our planning and delivery.
When projects are built with communities and not around them, we are able to support growth in a way that both protects and benefits customers.
And finally, I want to touch on several regulatory updates, beginning with North Carolina. The rate cases for both Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress are proceeding on schedule. The next step will be intervenor testimony, which is due for DEC at the end of May. We look forward to continuing constructive engagement with stakeholders as we advocate for the critical investments needed to reliably serve our growing communities and provide value for our customers. And in mid-March, we filed our initial electric rate stabilization adjustment in South Carolina under legislation that was signed into law last May. This efficient process allows for annual true-ups that reduce rate volatility for customers.
The investments we're making in our systems support critical upgrades to improve reliability, harden the grid and support growth. Whether it's a blue sky day or responding to winter storms like we experienced earlier this year, we continue to provide value by keeping the lights on and restoring power safely and quickly.
Moving to Slide 7. We continue to advance our all-of-the-above strategy, adding 14 gigawatts of generation over the next 5 years. We're also maximizing existing generation by extending the lives of our nuclear fleet. In April, the NRC approved the subsequent license renewal for Robinson Nuclear Plant, marking our second nuclear plant to reach this important milestone. As the operator of the largest regulated fleet in the nation, nuclear is foundational to our strategy, and we intend to seek similar extensions for all our remaining reactors.
Our gas generation program, which is a critical component of our strategy is well underway with 5 gigawatts under construction and an additional 2.5 gigawatts in development. In March, the South Carolina Commission approved our application for a 1.4 gigawatt combined cycle plant in Anderson County. The plan is the first to be approved after the enactment of the Energy Security Act last May, and is our first new baseload generation asset in the Palmetto state in a decade. Construction is expected to begin in 2027.
And last month, we implemented a CWIP rider in Indiana for our Cayuga combined cycle plant. This recovery mechanism supports the state's focus on affordability by reducing overall costs to customers while maintaining balance sheet strength. We have agreements in place to secure the long lead time equipment and workforce needed for this dispatchable generation, which reduces risk and leverage our size and scale to complete these projects efficiently maximizing the value for our customers. The first turbine secured under our framework agreement with GE [indiscernible] are being built, with the turbines for the first person county combined cycle project expected to be delivered in the second half of this year.
Our gas generation build will create thousands of construction jobs and we have a solid plan to ensure we have the skilled labor needed to meet our construction milestones on time and on budget.
In the Carolinas, we have signed EPC contracts for the first 3 new gas generation facilities, a programmatic approach that gives our EPC providers [indiscernible] line of sight to an order book of projects. We have deliberately laid out the construction time lines for Person County and Marshall plants to create a road map for Zachry to stage the regional workforce. This will support developing and retaining a local craft pool for years into the future. We're building on the success we've had supporting talent pipelines to address needed skills in our service territories, like we've done with line worker training programs, and we're sharing these best practices with our EPC partners. To bring all this together, our project management and construction team has a robust construction monitoring process in place. We are working closely with our equipment suppliers and EPC providers, including conducting quality assurance checks of equipment and manufacturing and leveraging AI technologies to track milestones.
This includes monitoring construction at a granular level down to the cubic yard of dirt excavated and concrete being poured. Overall, our scope and scale as well as our extensive experience and infrastructure development uniquely position us to lead this record generation build. And we've been actively preparing for this next build cycle for more than 3 years given us full confidence in our ability to execute the work ahead.
With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 8, we delivered strong first quarter results with reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 and $1.93, respectively. This compares to reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.76 last year. Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.16, driven by infrastructure investments to reliably serve customers in our growing jurisdictions as well as favorable weather. Partially offsetting this was higher O&M and depreciation expense on a growing asset base. The colder temperatures we experienced in the quarter drove higher usage, but this was offset by higher O&M expenses incurred responding to winter storms. We budget for storms and have solid recovery mechanisms in place, so the impact in the first quarter is largely timing and we continue to target flat O&M for the full year.
Gas Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.01 compared to last year, with contributions from riders and customer growth, partially offset by higher depreciation expense. The other segment was essentially flat to the prior year.
Our results for the quarter continued to build on the momentum from the past year, reflecting the strength of our utilities and consistent execution of our strategy, positioning us well to achieve our full year EPS targets.
Turning to Slide 9. Our economic development success continues as we progress additional large load projects through the pipeline and signed contracts. We have now secured approximately 7.6 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including an incremental 2.7 gigawatts since the fourth quarter call.
As Harry touched on, these contracts include provisions that protect existing customers and deliver value to those customers over time by spreading fixed cost over a larger base.
As we continue to convert economic development prospects into firm projects, we are locking in contracted ramp schedules that provide us with increasing confidence in our long-term load growth projections.
On Slide 10, I want to highlight the work underway to sign additional contracts and bring new large loads onto the system. We continue to see robust interest from large load customers with our late-stage high-confidence pipeline now at 15.4 gigawatts inclusive of the ESAs we've signed. Our teams are working diligently to advance projects through the pipeline, and we expect to convert additional prospects to ESAs over the next 12 months.
Construction is underway on the first 5 gigawatts of new data centers, and we are putting the necessary infrastructure in place to support speed to power, preparing the grid to deliver energy as soon as they are ready, and executing our generation build to grow together over time. Consistent with our load forecast, we expect these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028 and ramp into their full contracted load through to early 2030s.
We expect the 2.7 gigawatts signed in the first quarter as well as any incremental projects signed to begin taking energy late in the 5-year planning window and ramp into the early to mid-2030s, strengthening the durability of our long-term growth potential well into the next decade.
Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 11. We remain well positioned to meet our financial commitments for the year. In March, we received over $5 billion of proceeds from the sale of Piedmont, Tennessee, and the first tranche of our -- of the Duke Energy Florida minority investment. Closing these transactions provides financial flexibility to execute our strategy and demonstrates our commitment to pursuing the lowest cost of capital to support our investment plans.
Also in March, we issued $1.5 billion of convertible senior notes at a 3% coupon, providing interest savings as we pay down higher cost debt. We took advantage of the strong market conditions and priced $300 million of equity under our ATM program, which was settled in December 2027 consistent with the timing of our future equity needs. This balanced funding approach along with improving cash flows from efficient recovery mechanisms keeps us on track to deliver 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term, providing meaningful cushion to our downgrade thresholds.
I also want to take a moment to acknowledge a major achievement we celebrated as a company this year, our 100th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend. This milestone marks a long-dated commitment to the dividend that's directly tied to the company's financial strength, regulatory execution and disciplined long-term investments. We have a diverse investor base, including many who live and work in the jurisdictions we serve, and we are proud to deliver this consistent cash flow they can count on.
Let me close with Slide 12. We are off to a strong start in 2026, and I'm proud of our team's unwavering commitment to deliver value for our customers each and every day. We are on track to achieve our 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2030 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.
Economic development success across our states generates an extensive runway of customer-focused capital investments that position us to deliver on our growth targets, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.
With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith.
So it just a -- as it pertains to the Carolinas cases here, right, I mean, obviously, they're proceeding as you say, on schedule, how do you think about any potential to settle them up here partially or otherwise here? Again, obviously, we're ticking through the milestones here, but just how would you set expectations against the wider backdrop here? A lot of noise in the system here, would love to hear how you set expectations?
Yes, Julien. So we always pride ourselves in working closely with our regulators and stakeholders to make sure everybody understands the benefits of the case, the value that we're providing to our customers. Like I mentioned, the next big milestone is the intervenor testimony later this month. I think once we get that out, we will have more extensive discussions on settlement opportunities. We always are open to that, but we also feel like we have a strong case if we have to litigate it.
We understand that affordability is front and center for everyone. It's front and center for us. And we're taking every action that we can. The announcement that we made yesterday with over $5 billion of savings over time for our customers is just one of the tools. And we have other tools in our tool bag to help as we have the stakeholder discussions. So we feel very confident that we will be able to continue our regulatory outcomes, strength and regulatory outcomes that we've had for the last several years.
Awesome. Excellent. And then just coming back to the loan growth, I mean, kudos again on that here in the quarter. Can you give us a little bit of an update in South Carolina, where do we stand on the generic large load tariff docket? How do you think about that being a catalyst in its own right? And any differences in the framework that you're expecting between the 2 different Carolinas here?
Yes. We're looking at several dockets and several tariff opportunities in all our states, but they're all grounded on the contracts that we have mentioned before, making sure that the data centers pay their fair share through minimum take provisions, deposits, refundable deposits, clawback provisions that they terminate, and also the benefits that they provide over time is a tremendous value to our customers. So making sure that people understand that. This is billions of dollars over the life of these contracts that are going to go to help offset the fixed system costs that we have with the larger loans. So we're in discussions in South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and other states to make sure that these are memorial wise and that we have the right provisions and tariffs in place to be able to do that. We feel our contracts through that now and then tariffs will just add to that.
Your next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe just on the tax credit monetization that you announced this morning, or mention in your prepared, any details you can provide in terms of counterparty or terms there? And just are there any other opportunities like that, that you could utilize to continue to provide customer benefits as the focus on affordability remains top of mind?
Carly, this is Brian. I'll take that one. As we monetize tax credits over the past couple of years, we've tested the market and we found a couple of partners that we wanted to go longer with. And that's what was the catalyst to negotiate a multiyear contract with this counterparty. We can't disclose the counterparty, but they have a healthy tax appetite, obviously, because they're acquiring these credits are going to be applying them on their tax return. And we feel like that, that's the best approach to partnering with companies as this IRA monetization market has continued to mature because going through an auction each year does take a lot of churn and effort in the system and you don't necessarily get the best prices. Like we tested the prices, we got great value for our customers with this contract, and after we've proven out that the discounts on the tax credits are as good or better than any market we've seen. So I think you can expect us to continue doing this.
And just to be clear, this is a forward contract. So we're going to the tax credits and sell them in those given years, but we predetermined the set value for our customers, which is a great, great opportunity.
Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe just on nuclear, I guess, across the industry, there's been some discussion on perhaps a consortium of utilities, hyperscalers, government entities kind of coming together to try to address some of the cost overrun issues and move forward on new build AP1000 in particular. I guess is that sort of a structure, something that you might consider participating in? And maybe just refresh us on kind of what specifically you're looking for to feel confident to move forward on new nuclear development?
Yes, Carly, obviously, nuclear is very important to us. We have 11 reactors that provide safe, reliable, dispatchable clean energy to our customers. And like Brian just mentioned, also helps us with customer value by providing almost $600 million of tax credits a year to our customers. So obviously, nuclear is important to Duke Energy. I think nuclear is important for the future of the country and the utility industry in general. We're going to need nuclear in the future to be able to deliver reliable power and clean power to handle the growth that our country is experiencing. But like we've said before, our main focus right now is to make sure that we get the most out of our current reactors, so we have about 300 megawatts of uprates that we're executing, and also getting the life extended. So we just announced Robinson's life extension. We'll be extending the lives of our other reactors as well. And we're working with the government with hyperscalers and others to make sure that the things that we need to solve to be able to go forward with the new nuclear build are being managed. So those risks, like we've talked about before, first-of-a-kind risks on the technology, what are we going to do with supply chain and workforce and making sure that that's available out there. And last, but definitely not least is how we manage the financial risks that protects our customers from overruns as well as protect our investors from that.
So we continue to have those discussions. We continue to maintain optionality in our IRPs and our planning to be able to do that if those answers come, but we will not make any moves until we get those 3 questions answered.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.
Just wanted to maybe go into the backlog a little bit more for the ESAs. Just wondering if you could, I guess, share a bit more of the view of the larger pipeline, as you said, the 15% and change? And how you think the cadence of this could come together in the future as far as the potential to expand the plan and what that could mean over time?
Yes, Jeremy, like we talked before, we're taking a very disciplined approach to this, really focused on those counterparties that are -- that can deliver those projects. And we're very conservative in what we're putting into that. So our pipeline is much bigger than that, but what we focus on is that late developed stage, and we feel confident that the discussions that we're having are going to land a lot of these that are in our late development pipeline in the next 12 months. So we'll continue to update you on that. But we continue to have prospects further deeper in the pipeline that we're moving up into this more advanced stage as well.
Jeremy, if I could just add, I can't help myself. I'm so proud of our focus on speed to power. We've really retooled how we approach these large load customers pulling together transmission and grid teams as well as our economic development teams, ensuring that we're looking at every solution to get these customers signed. And I think it's evident. Siding 2.7% this quarter, which was more than half we signed last year, is really a testament to that speed of power focus, and we should expect more of that in the future.
Got it. That's helpful there. And just wanted to turn towards the current rate case. Are there any direct offset here from the savings that you announced with the merger of the Carolinas as well as the tax credits. Just wondering if you think about the potential to levers, I guess, to reframe the ask as a result of what was accomplished here just looking at forward prospects?
Yes, Jeremy, we have a lot of levers, tax credit is being one of them. The one utility, that's going to go into effect at the beginning of next year. So that will be more over time, but it does definitely provide a lot of value to the customers over that time, $2.3 billion. So our focus with the levers that we have now is how we can offer some of those up to mitigate some of the increase. So think about tax credits, then we have some other options as well.
Again, we'll be talking to our stakeholders and our regulators after the intervener testimony is followed at the end of this month.
Got it. One quick one, if I could, just as it relates to the legislative session. If there's anything that you're watching there? I think there might be some -- Bill is talking on tax incentive for data centers, if you cost sharing mechanisms and just wondering if any thoughts on the legislative session you could share?
Yes. We share the goals that our legislators and our regulators and our stakeholders have in the states. They want to make sure that customers are protected from the large load that's coming to our territory to make sure they pay their fair share. They want to make sure that reliability is maintained. And they also want to make sure that we continue to have economic development and the states grow. Those are all things that we're in tune with, and we're working with them. I think a lot of the things that are being discussed are already in our contracts. It's just codifying some of that. So we'll continue to work with them, but we all have the same goal in mind to make sure that our customers are protected and our states can continue to grow and we can continue to have reliability.
Your next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
I was just wondering, just 1 question from me. Have you seen any -- just in terms of the data center activity in the broader pipeline, have you seen any acceleration in that activity in terms of top of the funnel interest in your service territory? Wondering if there are any areas, any regions that are showing indications that they could be bigger hubs and develop that way over time?
Yes, Dave. We're seeing an acceleration in interest in our territories. Being a vertically integrated utility has a lot of advantages to these hyperscalers. We plan our transmission, our generation as a one-stop shop. We also have a very vast experience and skill around community engagement that can help these folks as they navigate zoning and other issues that crop up. So we're getting a lot more interest in our service territories.
We're seeing, in North Carolina, around the Charlotte area, kind of becoming another hub. We have a lot of interest in Florida as well as the southern part of Indiana. I know a lot of activity has happened in Northern Indiana originally, but we're getting a lot of incomings for the Southern Indiana region and now as well. So we'll continue to work on those.
Like Brian mentioned, we have a team in place that their goal 7 days a week, 24 hours a day is how do we get these things signed quicker, how do we service them quicker, maintaining the reliability and the value for all our customers.
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities.
So in back to the customer savings outlined on Slide 5, the tax credit agreement, can you speak a little bit to the timing of flowback, the rate payers there? I think you've discussed this a little bit in the past. Just trying to get a sense of if the latest monetization agreement is consistent with that or any changes in thinking there?
Thanks, Richard. And congrats on the new role. I know you started covering Truist recently, so it's good to get your voice. The tax credit agreement, I would think about it as we're locking in the value for customers. So we're not going to be geoshape discounts year in and year out. the flowback is different for North Carolina versus South Carolina for DP and DC currently. But you think of we've been signaling to a 4-year amortization generally, and that's what is in North Carolina. And as Harry said, as we work through the rate cases, it might be a tool to accelerate to keep the rates even lower during this time. But it's not additional tax credit, it's one we expected to earn through our nuclear, solar and battery investments. It's monetizing them at these predetermined discounts and locking in that value for customers.
No, I appreciate that commentary and and [indiscernible] for that as well. I guess on the ESA update, too, just if I caught that in the script, I think it was 2/3 are under construction. Curious what you see as the timing for those remaining projects to begin construction. And I guess anything you're focused on locally around more porting what have you in terms of the confidence of those projects advancing until they start turning dirt?
Yes. So we're very confident in all our projects that are in the ESA bucket. RS ESAs require having zoning nailed down, having permits in place. So we feel confident, and that's why a lot of them have been able to start construction as soon after we sign those ESAs. We anticipate the same thing with all the new ones that are coming into us they'll start construction very rapidly. And in fact, we're looking at ways of how we can accelerate some of the bridge power to them to get them online and have them start taking their service a little earlier as well.
Your next question comes from the line of Steve D’Ambrisi from RBC Capital Markets.
I just had a quick one to follow-up on kind of the load commentary in the 2.7 gigawatts. I was just looking at the North Carolina IRP that you guys had filed in October. And I think in that IRP, you had included the moderate development forecast, which included something like 6 gigawatts of advanced stage, but it was risk to add like a 25% or 30% rate. And so I mean it seems like signing this 2.7 gigawatts, even if it's in the tail end, looks like it would be upside to what was kind of laid out in the moderate development plan. So can you just talk about what that means and like what the avenue is to update load forecasts in North Carolina or elsewhere, just as you continue to sign these large loads?
Yes, it's a very dynamic environment that we're dealing with. That's why we put a high case in that IRP. So this 2.7 that we just recently signed, that moves that load up to that level. So it's been contemplated in our plans there. It will be discussed in our rebuttal as well. So that just solidifies that other line in there. This is very dynamic. We're also talking to our stakeholders on how we can update that a little bit more frequently than what we have in the past because it's such a dynamic environment. But we're doing everything that we can to make sure that we're planning the generation, staying ahead of it so that we can sign these ESAs as fast as possible and do not have any delays.
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Harry Sideris for closing remarks.
Thank you again, everybody, for joining us. And before I close, I just wanted to reemphasize how proud I am with the results that this team has delivered in the first quarter. And we're going to continue to build on that momentum as we move through the rest of the year. But I want you to know that we're executing our strategy effectively. We're reaching our new milestones in our generation build, and we're converting those economic development opportunities into real projects, and we're going to continue doing that in the future. So I'm very confident in our ability to earn in the top half of the range -- EPS growth range in 2028 as these loads materialize. And our plan is very durable well into the future. So again, thank you for joining us today, and thank you again for your investment in Duke Energy.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
Duke Energy — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Duke Energy — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Duke Energy starts 2026 with solid Q1 results and momentum from regulated investments and data-center load deals.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- GAAP EPS: $1.97 (+$0.21 YoY to $1.76)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.93 (+$0.17 YoY to $1.76)
- ESAs signed: ~7.6 GW total; +2.7 GW since Q4; ~2/3 under construction
- Tax credits & merger savings: monetization up to $3.1B; ~ $2.3B in customer savings through 2040; regulators approved
- Guidance status: reaffirmed 2026 EPS range $6.55–$6.80; 5–7% long-term growth through 2030; top-half from 2028
🎯 What Management Says
- Guidance reaffirmed: 2026 EPS guidance unchanged; confident in reaching top-half of the 2028–2030 growth trajectory.
- Customer value focus: tax-credit monetization and Carolina merger deliver more than $5B of benefits to customers; regulatory path clear.
- Execution backbone: all-of-the-above generation plan (14 GW in 5 years), nuclear life extensions, and rapid ESAs-to-construction to speed power delivery; AI-enabled project monitoring
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Forecast: on track to meet 2026 EPS of $6.55–$6.80 and 5–7% annual EPS growth through 2030; aim to earn in the top half starting in 2028.
- Risks & drivers: regulatory outcomes, rate cases, and execution risk on large-scale generation build and ESAs.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Tariffs & settlements: regulators, interventional testimony expected later this month; settlements possible but litigation-ready if needed; focus on keeping rates affordable through tax credits and merger savings.
- ESAs pipeline & timing: late-stage pipeline ~15.4 GW; 2.7 GW signed this quarter; construction ramp and speed-to-power emphasized to accelerate take-up.
- Nuclear strategy: optionality remains; life-extension of reactors prioritized; discussion of consortiums for new build but pending first-of-a-kind risk, supply chain, and cost questions.
⚡ Bottom Line
Duke Energy’s Q1 reinforces a durable, regulated growth story: solid earnings momentum, a robust data-center load backlog, and meaningful customer benefits from tax credits and the Carolinas merger, all supported by disciplined capital allocation and a broad generation build that positions shareholders to benefit as ESAs convert into real, long-duration revenue.
Duke Energy — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Duke Energy Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Harry, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions].
I will now hand the call over to Abi Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Harry Sideris, President and CEO; along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO.
Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.
With that, let me turn the call over to Harry Sideris.
Thank you, Abi, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin by acknowledging our teammates for their incredible response to the recent winter storms that impacted our states. We were prepared and our system performed well which is a testament to the efforts of our team and the benefits of our grid-hardening investments. Moving to financial results.
Today, we announced 2025 earnings per share of $6.31 representing 7% growth over 2024 and above the midpoint of our guidance range for the year. I'm proud to say we executed on all fronts. Our performance reflects the strength of our regulated utilities our teammates unwavering focus on operational excellence and our commitment to generating sustainable shareholder and customer value. Looking ahead, we're introducing 2026 earnings guidance of $6.55 to $6.80. We're also extending our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030 and off the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $6.30. And I am more confident than ever in our ability to deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 as load growth accelerates.
Our earnings profile is underpinned by a $16 billion increase in our 5-year capital plan to $103 billion. Our capital plan will drive 9.6% earnings-based growth and is the largest fully regulated capital plan in the industry, focused on critical energy infrastructure investments that strengthen the system and serve increasing load. As the investment needs of our utilities accelerate, I want to emphasize that the cost of energy has been and will remain a key focus for Duke Energy. I'm proud that we have kept rate changes below the rate of inflation on average over the last decade, supported by our continuous improvement culture as well as sensible federal and state energy policies.
Before I turn our focus areas for the year ahead, I want to reflect on the significant financial accomplishments in 2025 as outlined on Slide 5. It was a tremendous year of execution, we delivered strong reported and adjusted earnings above our guidance midpoint. We also announced 2 strategic transactions at premium valuations that position the company for growth. And our credit profile continued to strengthen. Over the last 12 months, we worked with regulators and other stakeholders to recover and securitize nearly $3 billion of storm costs. which was key to achieving 14.8% FFO to debt in 2025.
We also advanced our all-of-the-above generation strategy, adding capacity to our system across a diverse mix of resources. This includes a 100-megawatt battery storage system we installed in North Carolina, the largest on our system to date. We also broke ground on 5 gigawatts of new natural gas generation in the Carolinas and Indiana. Importantly, we put contracts in place to secure the long lead time equipment and workforce needed to support this new dispatchable generation. While we build for the growth of tomorrow, we remain focused on adding value for our stakeholders today by providing safe, reliable power at the lowest possible cost.
Moving to Slide 6. This year will be defined by continued execution in 4 core areas: delivering value for our customers, advancing construction on new generation converting our economic development pipeline into firm projects and building on our demonstrated track record of constructive regulatory outcomes. Our customers remain our top priority, and we will never waver on our commitment to value and affordability. We'll continue to utilize every tool available to keep rates as low as possible, including managing costs, leveraging tax credits and minimizing financing costs through regulatory mechanisms like securitization and CWIP and rate base.
In 2026, we'll also move forward through the process to combine our Carolinas utilities, which, if approved, will save customers more than $1 billion through 2038. These are some of the many solutions we'll employ as we continue to challenge ourselves to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers. We're also protecting existing customers from costs associated with new large load projects through tariff structures and contract provisions. This is important as we continue to convert economic development prospects into firm projects.
Since the third quarter call, we signed electric service agreements for another 1.5 gigawatts of new data centers. These projects form industry clusters that create value for communities for years to come and benefit our existing customers as fixed costs to the system are spread across a larger base. Finally, we will build on our established track record of delivering constructive regulatory outcomes, which includes our recent South Carolina rate case orders. As a reminder, we reached comprehensive settlements in both cases last year. which were fully approved by the commission in December.
In North Carolina, we're progressing our request for new multiyear rate plans, which would take effect January 1, 2027. These requests cover investments to strengthen the grid and upgrade our fleet. And importantly, reflect cost control initiatives that have allowed us to maintain flat O&M cost structure despite inflationary pressures and a growing asset base. We know there's never a good time for energy bills to go up. families and businesses feel every increase in affordability matters. That's why our focus is straightforward, keep costs as low as possible while maintaining reliability.
Moving to Slide 7. In providing the reliable power our customers expect requires us to add every available megawatt to the grid and increase speed to power as we build for economic growth. We are adding approximately 14 gigawatts of incremental generation over the next 5 years, which demonstrates our commitment to meet the accelerated growth in front of us by maximizing our current fleet as we add new generation. As I mentioned earlier, we already have agreements in place for the supply chain and workforce to support this incredible build, including provisions with EPC contractors to create efficiencies over time and the framework agreement with GE Vernova on turbine procurement. With over $1 billion of capital deployed every single month, Duke Energy's scope and scale uniquely positions us to lead this record generation build. We have extensive experience from building nearly 4 gigawatts of gas generation across our fleet over the last decade. And we've been actively preparing for this next build cycle for more than 3 years giving us full confidence in our ability to execute the work ahead.
Consistent with our all of the above strategy, we will also continue to add battery and solar projects at a steady pace. Our battery deployment in particular, will ramp significantly through the 5-year plan with approximately 4.5 gigawatts of additions through 2031. Finally, we continue to evaluate the potential for new nuclear, maintaining optionality for future development.
In December, we submitted an early site permit for a potential SMR at our Belews Creek site in North Carolina. We're taking a disciplined approach to do nuclear, sharing our operational expertise and advancing limiting licensing activities while reducing supply chain risks and allowing technologies to mature. We also continue to seek solutions that mitigate financial risk for customers and investors before we make a decision to move forward with any new nuclear development. Investing in our existing fleet, advancing new generation and evaluating emerging technology are critical to ensure we can support our growing communities. We entered 2026 with incredible momentum and are poised to deliver. We're executing our strategy and creating meaningful value for our shareholders and customers.
With that, I will now turn over the call to Brian.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 8, we delivered 2025 reported and adjusted earnings per share of $6.31, a 7% increase year-over-year. Results reflect strong execution of our financial plan including top line growth from efficient regulatory constructs in place across our growing states. These drivers will continue in 2026, and we set our adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.55 million to $6.80.
The Electric segment will continue to drive most of the growth in 2026 as we move into year 3 of our multiyear rate plans in North Carolina, year 2 in Florida and implement Phase 2 rates in Indiana. New rates from constructive rate case orders in South Carolina will be effective in the first quarter, and we also expect to see steady growth from grid riders in the Midwest and Florida. In addition, our plan assumes normal weather and retail sales growth of 1.5% to 2% in 2026.
In the gas segment, we will see growth from Piedmont integrity management riders and new rates at Duke Energy, Kentucky. Finally, higher cost -- power financing costs will drive results in the Other segment. Consistent with prior guidance, we expect the Tennessee and Florida transactions to be earnings neutral. With interest savings at the holding company, fully offsetting lower earnings at Piedmont and Duke Energy, Florida. I'm proud of the results we delivered in 2025, and I'm bullish about the future. We are well positioned to execute our investment plan to serve our growing jurisdictions.
Turning to Slide 9. Our economic development pipeline continues to progress, increasing confidence in our growth profile. Since the third quarter earnings call, we signed an additional 1.5 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including Microsoft and Compass and now have approximately 4.5 gigawatts of data center load secured under ESAs. Our success underscores the attractiveness of our service territories to prospective large load customers.
Duke Energy is a one-stop shop, providing significant speed to power advantages. We work with customers and our communities to optimize siding, which ensures we can connect new load quickly while minimizing system upgrade costs. And as we execute our ambitious generation build cycle, we will grow together as customers ramp into their full energy demand. We are partnering with our states to attract hyperscale customers to our service territories, and remain laser-focused on meeting their energy needs in a way that protects our existing customer base. These incremental volumes will support affordability over the life of the contract as system costs are spread over a larger base. And the ESA contract provisions, including minimum billing requirements, termination charges and refundable capital advances ensure new large load customers pay their fair share of overall system costs.
As a reminder, we've consistently taken a risk-adjusted approach to evaluate which projects to include in our load forecast. I'm proud of the work we've done to streamline processes across the organization to accelerate projects through the pipeline, which is yielding results. This allows us to focus our resources and efforts on high-confidence projects, supporting speed to power. With signed ESAs that lock in ramp schedules and minimum demand, we have high confidence in the load forecast underpinning our broader financial plan.
On Slide 10, our $103 billion capital plan is the largest among regulated utilities and represents an increase of 18% versus our prior plan. Our capital plan is increasing as we progress further into the generation build cycle and invest in fuel security infrastructure to support future combined cycle plants in the Carolinas as outlined in the IRP. Beyond generation, we continue to strengthen the grid to improve reliability and resiliency, delivering value for customers. Our industry-leading capital plan drives 9.6% earnings base growth through 2030, up over 150 basis points versus the prior plan. This accelerated earnings base growth, combined with efficient recovery mechanisms across our utilities, underpin our confidence in delivering sustainable long-term growth.
Beyond the 5-year plan, we see a long runway of capital investment opportunities as our generation modernization strategy advances well into the next decade. As the investment plans of our utilities accelerate, we remain committed to customer value and affordability. We are focused on making the right investments at the right time in a way that enhances reliability and affordability.
Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 11. We reported 14.8% FFO to debt in 2025. The significant improvement over 2024 reflects timely storm recovery and improving operating cash flows from continued regulatory execution. We are forecasting 2026 FFO to debt of approximately 14.5% and remain well positioned to achieve our long-term target of 15% as proceeds from the Tennessee and Florida transactions are received. Our financing plan includes $10 billion of equity in the 2027 to 2030 time frame to fund accretive growth. This represents approximately 35% equity funding of the capital plan increase and demonstrates our ongoing commitment to balance sheet strength.
While our base plan assumes common equity issuances through our DRIP and ATM programs, we'll also evaluate hybrids and other equity content securities to fund a portion of our equity needs over the planning horizon. Brookfield's minority interest investment in Duke Energy, Florida and the sale of our Piedmont Tennessee business to Spire will further strengthen our credit profile and satisfy our 2026 equity needs. We remain on track to close the Tennessee sale by the end of the first quarter and the first tranche of the DEF investment in early 2026. With efficient recovery mechanisms in place, a disciplined focus on capital deployment and a balanced funding approach we are positioned for sustainable, long-term growth.
Let me close with Slide 12. I'm proud of the work of our employees in 2025 to deliver on our commitments. It takes all of us executing at a high level to succeed in this dynamic environment, and we will continue to build on this momentum. As load growth and capital investment accelerate, we are more confident than ever in our ability to earn the top half of the 5% to 7% EPS range beginning in 2028. Combined with our attractive dividend yield, our growth targets provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.
Before we move to questions, I'd like to recognize Abi's exceptional work leading our Investor Relations function for more than 3 years. She has set the model of excellence for the industry, and we wish her continued success in her next chapter as she becomes our Chief Accounting Officer and Controller on March 1.
I also want to congratulate Mike Switzer who will succeed Abi as our Head of Investor Relations, in addition to continuing to oversee corporate development. I know many of you are familiar with Mike's leadership from our strategic transactions this year. and we look forward to the opportunity for you to work more closely with him in the coming weeks and months ahead.
With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question will be from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays.
2. Question Answer
Thanks for all the updates. I appreciate it. I just wanted to ask -- you brought up the storms in your prepared remarks and the response just any costs or impacts from that, that you could disclose? And is that already kind of embedded in the midpoint view of the $6.68, if you could just confirm that? From this quarter in 1Q.
We're still compiling those costs, but I'm really proud of the response the company had there. We had 200,000 outages. We restored over 95% of those within 24 hours and really a testament to the team and their preparation as well as our grid strengthening that we've done over the years. We do have mechanisms in the Carolinas for recovery of those costs. So we'll be finalizing that, but we don't anticipate any impacts to our guidance for this year.
Nick, this is Brian. I would just add, we budget for storms. This might affect the shaping and some of the expenses throughout the year because sometimes the storms come more in Q3 when hurricanes have impacted our regions. But we budget for storms and we have really good recovery mechanism in place that allow us to the deferred cost for future recovery that are above a certain deductible level. So no impact to the guidance for 2026.
Great. Appreciate that. And then on the North Carolina rate case, the Carolinas rate case specifically, you brought up affordability in your comments. Obviously, a lot of stakeholders are kind of watching the case and since it is a larger case with the merger being a big item, just curious on how you're viewing the strategy of, do you need to kind of go the full distance here? Or do you think that you can constructively get to an agreement to settle it like you have in prior cases? And I recognize it's early in the process, but just kind of understanding how you're viewing that potential.
Yes, Nick. We don't take rate cases lightly, especially in this environment of affordability. I know our customers are struggling with housing costs, insurance, cost, health care costs as well as food prices -- but we're really focused on delivering reliable and affordable energy, which is what our commission and our legislators want as well. So we're aligned there. We have a lot of tools in our bag with tax credits or 1 utility merger that you mentioned. These are all things that are going to help mitigate some of those increases. We have a good case that shows a lot of value for our investments going forward. So we feel we have a good case if we get to litigation. But in the past, we've always tried to settle or settle portions and have a constructive track record of doing that. And we'll look to do that again. But again, we're just focused on making sure that our customers in the Carolinas get reliable and affordable energy from us.
The next question will be from the line of Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.
It's actually Alex on for Shar. So just on the CapEx outlook and the drivers behind it, obviously, a healthy number you put out there. Can you help us think about the incremental data center opportunities you're seeing on the slides? And can you just talk about your level of confidence in rolling that into plan? We've seen data centers pull out of other states despite signing ESAs. So at what point does this move the needle for you? And how do you think about customer protections in lieu of having a blanket large load tariff?
Yes, I'll start off and then Brian can add some color, but we're very confident in our 5% to 7% growth rate as well as our capital plan that supports that. The ESAs that we've signed, all of those are under construction. They're turning dirt. They have zoning in hand. So we don't anticipate any of those backing out and then we have a robust pipeline that we continue to work. So we feel very confident with our projections of 5% to 7% through the period as well as in the top half, starting in '28 as some of those loads come online. So very durable plan, consistent with what we've been talking about the last several times.
Brian, I don't know if you want to add anything.
Yes. I would just say that signing these ESAs, Alex, give us high confidence in the growth outlook of Duke Energy because we're risk adjusting our load forecast basically to the minimum billing demands of these contracts, which clearly gives high confidence in the revenue profile as these projects come online. And we've got 4.5 gigawatts of ESA signed think about those will start coming online in late '27 and really ramp in '28. That's why we're pointing to 2028 as an inflection point in earnings.
And our pipeline in the late stage, the ones that are moving through the funnel at pace. it's about double that. So you think about 9 gigawatts is what we're working through, and you should expect new announcements over the course of '26 as we progress the pipeline in a very expedient manner.
Great. That's very helpful. And just on the long-term outlook. So you raised the rate base to about 9.6% CAGR. You reiterated the top half of that 5% to 7% by '28. Can you just walk us through what's driving the delta between the two. You're obviously seeing a lot of growth in investment opportunities, especially in the Carolinas. Do you see an opportunity for that delta to narrow between rate base and EPS prior to '28? Or is that just based on timing of load ramp?
Yes, Alex. The delta between the earnings-based CAGR and EPS , there's always a difference, right? And we have our holding company. We're funding these investments with partially with equity, partially with debt. there is a drag there we would see. But I would point to the revenues are accelerating into that 2028 time frame because that's when these customers will start taking energy. And we are locking in these ramp schedules. So we have high confidence in this revenue acceleration. Our earnings outlook is robust. We're pointing to the top half, which is the 6% to 7% of the 5% to 7% CAGR and we see a very robust plan in front of us.
Your next question today will be from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.
We've got James Ward here on for Julie -- awesome. I'm going to ask just a little bit differently. So November, you reaffirm the 5% to 7% through '29, you've extended to 2030, you got the 9.6% of earnings base growth assuming about 2.5% dilution from financing, what has to go right to deliver the top half performance beginning in 2028 in terms of earned ROEs and so on?
Yes. James, we feel very confident in our plan that we laid out. 2028, like Brian mentioned, is an inflection point for our load late '27 and '28 as those data centers start ramping up. So that's what's driving our confidence in that upper end of the 5% to 7%. And we see that extending out as those ramp rates continue in '29 and '30 and beyond. So we feel like our plan is very durable. We're very confident in our regulatory outcomes that we have a very strong track record of, again, providing value and showing that value to our customers and our regulators is important.
And then the tools I mentioned earlier, how are we going to use 1 utility to offset some of these costs, how the data centers are paying for their fair share and then over time, reducing the cost to the customers as we spread out the cost -- our fixed cost over a broader base. So we feel very confident that we'll continue to have constructive outcomes regulatorily and that are shaping of the load that we've laid out in our contracts we'll deliver that upper half of the range starting in '28.
Got it. And then second question was on FFO to debt. You obviously achieved 14.8% '25, you're targeting 14.5% in '26, 15% longer term. With the larger capital plan, what are the key assumptions that keep you within those guardrails timing of tenancy and sort of proceeds you spoke to already, but thinking on regulatory cash flow mechanisms, dividend payout and what would cause you to adjust the funding mix?
Yes, James, one, I'm incredibly proud of the improvement in our cash flow profile that we made in 2025 and will continue into the future. So it's underpinned by improving operating cash flows. So the great work we've done with our regulators and policymakers over the last several years is paying dividends because we're covering our investments for customers in a timely way is a way to support the balance sheet and keep rates low for customers. So we're seeing that.
So what has to happen to get to the 15%, basically, the fundamentals are in place. We don't need a change in regulatory policy. We don't need a low pass. We need to continue to execute the plan we have and support our capital investments with some equity funding. You'll see that the increase in capital, we funded with 35% equity. That's a good gauge of where we might be to maintain that 15% FFO to debt once we are in 2028 and beyond.
I would add a lot of the regulatory work we've already accomplished with some of the multiyear rate plans that we have in place, and we'll be looking at multiyear rate plan in Ohio. Those help as well as CWIP recovery that helps with our customer costs but also helps with our cash position. So that was work that we've accomplished over the last several years that will continue to help us support our FFO to debt number.
The next question will be from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe just on the generation build cycle you've referenced. Outside of the CPCN approvals, are there any outstanding items or constraints to signing firm EPC contracts for the execution of the gas generation build in your plans?
Yes, we've been planning for this for the last 3 years. making sure that we have the supply chain built out to make sure we have all the long lead items, whether it's transformer, circuit breakers as well as gas turbines and also the EPC contracts. We've taken a different approach going forward with how we do this, where we're looking at more of a programmatic approach with 1 EPC vendor that will get us efficiencies that will help us deliver the projects on time and on budget and move them from one project through the next project through the next project. So as we stage those out and layer them out, we feel like that will keep us with a solid workforce as well as the experience to be able to develop these projects in a timely and qualitative manner.
Great. And then maybe just on some of the opportunities that you've given us hitting some more details just on the type of generation that you're looking at those opportunities. Could you talk a little bit about the timing of sort of the cadence of the gas, nuclear and hydro upgrade opportunity? And also any indication on the capital investment required to execute on those projects?
Yes. So there's about 1,000 megawatts of uprates across the system. A lot of that is on the gas fleet with advanced materials as well as packages into those. We've done a lot of that work already in Florida. We also have about 300 megawatts of new clear up rates and then the rest are some hydro up rates. These are very competitive to new generation. They're actually cheaper than anything that we can do on the system. That's why we're going forward. They also add an efficiency component that allows you to get more megawatts for the same fuel, which helps with fuel costs and drives that affordability number that we've been talking about earlier. So we feel very comfortable with our plan and our costs that we have in our plan, and those are very good investments for our customers.
The next question will be from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.
Abi, congrats last quarter -- last quarterly call. So I'm sure you're going to really miss it.
Thanks, Anthony.
Also, Harry, kudos to you and already with the same first name, it's probably not happened in a while.
We've planned it that way, just for you.
All right. Just quickly, it's not so much Duke specific. I'm curious because I know you guys have 2 pending rate cases, a follow-up on Nick's question earlier. But in the current environment where affordability has really reached a new level of concern for policymakers, do you think it's easier for parties now to come to a settlement? What do you think with that affordability backdrop? And it seems like every politician is using us as a sum speech, it's getting more challenging to reach a settlement?
Well, affordability is definitely on everybody's mind. And like I mentioned earlier, it's not just electricity prices that they have on their mind. It's really housing, health care, food prices. So it is definitely a topic of discussion. What we focused on talking to stakeholders and legislators is making sure that we show the value that Duke Energy provides to our customers through storm response, reliability, economic development, bringing more jobs and businesses into the communities, but also showing that we have always, for over 120 years focused on cost. That's what's made us successful in the past. That's why we have auto manufacturers and other businesses in our territory because we've always had low rates. We continue to have rates well below the national average. Our rate increases on average have been below the rate of inflation. Those are very important points as we talk to the stakeholders about what we're trying to accomplish.
And then we have a lot of tools, like I mentioned, the tax credits $500-plus million a year of nuclear credits because of our well-run nuclear plants allow us to turn that back into the customers, helping absorb some of those increases as we build out the system for the future. So we feel like we're positioned very well. We have a history of having constructive settlements. And again, we feel like we have a strong case based on value, reliability and affordability for our customers if we have to litigate it.
Great. And then just again, maybe this one maybe more specific to Duke on the data centers that are signing up, and I guess maybe regulatory approval of them you guys highlighted earlier and you've been pretty steadfast on making sure that data centers or the big hookups large loads don't really impact residential customers or residential customers are made whole from these large loads.
I'm just wondering, do you think the regulation shifts where not only you have to show that no impact to the residential or the small customer, but actually that this new load is beneficial or some net benefit and that maybe the regulators want to quantify that sooner? Or do you think that the current backdrop of just showing that there's no impact to the smaller customer really will stay hold for the next several years?
I think this is another hot topic amongst regulators and politicians as well. And we continue to show that our data centers are paying their fair share. And then over time, they're actually reducing the cost to the broader base of customers through spreading out the fixed cost over a larger base. So we continue to show those results to them. We have a tariff filed in Florida, but in the other jurisdictions, we're using currently approved tariffs that protect the customer and these minimum take requirements, these termination fees, these upfront capital investments from them all tools that we're using to show that these folks are not only carrying their weight, but they're actually over time going to help our customers. So we've been very constructive discussions with our regulators on that.
Next question today will be from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
Let me see. I was curious with the data center pipeline are you evaluating interruptibility or flexibility as kind of one of the characteristics as a way to speed up interconnection. Is that something that you think data centers would be willing to consider or something that you're exploring as you firm up the ESAs?
Yes. Great question, David. Yes, we absolutely have done that with the contracts that we have signed. That's been one of the provisions. It helps us get them online faster -- they've been open to doing it because it does give them that speed to the power that they need. And it also helps us as we discuss benefits to the customers and the fact that it's going to maintain reliability, having that ability to curtail their load or have them go on their backup generation for 50 hours or so a year. So very constructive discussions, and that's in our contracts that we have signed.
The next question will be from the line of Steve D�Ambrisi.
Brian, thanks very much for the time this morning. SP-4 Just had a quick one on sales growth and the incremental 1.5 gigawatts of data center ESAs that you've signed. Can you just level set us on what amount of data center load growth is embedded in the 3% to 4% enterprise load growth in the 4% to 5% Carolinas load growth. And just how -- if there's any sensitivities that we can think about to the extent you have incremental data center ESA signings?
Yes. So as you intimate, it's becoming a more increasingly larger component of the load growth profile as we get later in the decade. And just for a number, the economic development profile that we have in the Carolinas and across the system, data centers comprise about 75% of that by the end of -- by 2030, right? So it's a growing component. That was only 50% just a couple of quarters ago. But as we sign new customers, it becomes a larger component. And so if you break down the 3% to 4% long-term load growth enterprise-wide, I think residential is -- and the existing customers are maybe 1/3 of that, and then the other 2/3 relate to economic development of which a big portion is data centers.
Okay. And then -- that's really helpful. And then just to the extent that we have incremental -- you referenced 9 gigawatts of pipeline. To the extent we roll forward a couple of quarters and the 4.5 gigawatts of BSA goes to 6. Obviously, there's timing considerations, but like how should we think about that layering into load growth and rolling forward your load growth projections?
It definitely is a tailwind, Steve. And I would -- but your point about timing is important because contracts that we signed are going to be a year behind those we signed in '25 and then the ramp will start. So I would think about it as 2 ways. One, it's a tailwind to the low growth around the 2030 time frame, and then it extends that ramp well into the '30s.
A lot of those that are in the pipeline now will be a little further out as they start their development. So that ramp rate will be towards the back end of the plan.
That's helpful. And then the only other question I had was just on the rate base CAGR. It says you raised it obviously to 9.6%. I noted that the footnote said that it's gross of minority interest investments or minority investments. So just with the impact of the DEF transaction, can you talk about what that number is maybe on that basis?
Yes. Happy to, Steve. And I would say, first, we put the footnote for clarity, but we've always shown the rate base growth gross because we've had the GIC investment in Indiana since 2021. So this isn't new, and it's how we would -- we're investing the CapEx growth, and then the minority interest is taken out at the bottom of the income statement. So we're not doing any trickery here with the rate base growth. But the 9.6%, if we took out the minority investment in Florida that's going to happen during this 5-year window would knock the CAGR to 8.8%. But I want to underscore those -- the proceeds coming in from Brookfield are going to offset a holdco. So if you're doing the detailed model, whatever you're modeling for holdco interest expense should be less than it would be otherwise if you were going to have it on a gross level.
Yes. I wasn't implying that there was any trickery. I just wanted to get the clarity.
No, I want to be clear. I want to be clear. We added a footnote -- that was a new add.
Your next question will be from the line of David Paz with Wolfe Research.
Just I appreciate the confidence in your growth inflection in 2028. But not sure I heard you correctly. Did you say that you could still reach the top half of 6% to 7% in 2028. Reflecting just the minimum takes. So in other words, you'll hit at least 6%, even if for some reason with the...
That is absolutely correct. We are fully confident in being able in '28 as the load comes online with these minimum take contract provisions that we have of reaching that top half at 6% to 7% growth rate.
Okay. Great. And then just on the 4.5 gigawatts of ESA, would any of those -- or I guess, any sign from now until there's potentially some kind of order ruling on the large loan tariff in North Carolina. If we were to see a large little tariff, is it -- do you anticipate they would impact 4.5 gigawatts?
No, not at all. These are -- we have existing tariffs as these things are signed under and they will continue to function under that. Any new changes to tariffs will only apply to the new ones. We've had conferences and technical conferences with the commission in North Carolina, and they are supportive of the way that we're approaching this, and we don't see any impacts there.
Great. Thank you so much.
Thank you. This will conclude Q&A. So I'll now hand back to Harry Sideris for some closing remarks.
Yes. Thank you for the questions today. I just want to wrap up real quick and reemphasize that our business has never been stronger. We delivered on 2025 commitments and we're going to build on that momentum into 2026. We are fully executing on all gears on our strategy, reaching new milestones in our generation build and converting our economic development pipeline into real projects. I'm more confident than ever of our ability to earn the top half like we talked about of our 5% to 7% EPS growth range starting in '28 and also the fact that this will be durable into the future. So again, thanks for joining us today, and thank you for your investment in Duke Energy. Take care.
This concludes the Duke Energy Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2025 Earnings Call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Duke Energy — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
Duke Energy — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the Duke Energy Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. My name is Sam, and I'll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand over to our host, Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin. Please go ahead, Abby.
Thank you, Sammy, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Harry Sideris, President and CEO, along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information, along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn the call over to Harry.
Thank you, Abby, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced strong results for the third quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 compared to $1.62 last year. driven by continued growth in our electric utilities. We are well positioned for a solid finish to the year and are narrowing our full year guidance range to $6.25 to $6.35 I'm proud of how our teammates are executing our strategy, delivering value for our customers, communities and shareholders every day while preparing our system to serve the growing energy needs of tomorrow. We approached 2026 with momentum as our company converts large load economic development prospects into tangible projects was signed electric service agreements. and we are already turning dirt on projects to meet this leading growth. We're carrying out an ambitious generation build that will add more than 13 gigawatts of capacity to our system in the next 5 years.
With the maturing pipeline and concrete investment plans in place, we're reaffirming our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2029 and and have confidence we will earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. Moving to Slide 5. As load growth materializes and we invest in modernizing our system, we expect our new 5-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion, increasing the largest investment plan in the industry. The step-up is primarily related to investments in new generation that will drive earnings base growth of more than 8.5% through 2030. We will provide additional details on the updated capital and financing plan on our fourth quarter call in February. As the investment needs of our utilities accelerate, I want to underscore that customer value and affordability remain front and center. Our job is to address the needs of all customers. from large industrial customers that are competing against a global market to residential customers that are managing their household budgets.
This focus starts with cost management, which is a core competency for Duke Energy. We continue to leverage AI and pursue a technology-enabled industry-leading cost structure as we invest in our system. Other tools we are utilizing to keep rates as low as possible, include the combination of Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress utilities, which, if approved, would save retail customers more than $1 billion through 2038. Store cost securitization which is expected to save customers in the car lines up to 18% on their bills compared to traditional recovery mechanisms energy tax credits, which collectively result in hundreds of millions of dollars in annual savings and we're protecting existing customers through tariff structures and contract provisions for new large load projects. These are just a few of the many solutions we employ to ensure our 10 million customers receive the service they count on at a fair price.
We recognize that our work to provide affordable energy for customers is never done, but we are proud that average rate changes have paced below the rate of inflation over the last decade and that our rates are well below the national average. Turning to Slide 6. The majority of our capital plan increase relates to our record generation build, which is hitting a new gear. Last month, we filed our updated Carolinas resource plan in North Carolina, which expands upon the previous filing approved by regulators in 2024 and and presents an updated path to continue to meet the needs of our customers reliably and affordably. The plan maintains an all-of-the-above strategy and supports the work already underway to meet near-term growth. Importantly, the updated IRP results in annual customer bill impacts of approximately 2% over the coming decade below the rate of inflation and significantly lower than the previously approved plan. The road map we laid out isn't just a long-term view. We're actively executing on generation build today.
We're on track to add more than 8.5 gigawatts of new dispatchable generation across our service territories over the next 5 years. This includes over 1 gigawatt of uprates to maximize the value of our existing fleet and 7.5 gigawatts of new natural gas. In the Carolinas, we have secured all major permit approvals, gas supply, long lead equipment and workforce contracts for our Person County combined cycle units and construction has commenced at the site. We also recently filed CPCNs for the Anderson County combined cycle in Smith combustion turbine projects. We expect approvals on both these sites in mid-2026. In Indiana, we appreciate the commission's recent approval of our CPCN for the turbine combined cycle gas units, a critical project to meet the state's growing power needs. The order approved 2 settlements reached in the case as well as semiannual CWIP recovery through a rider.
This recovery mechanism will support the balance sheet through the construction cycle and reduce overall cost to the customers. All of the work underway today will enable us to continue to serve our customers reliably and affordably into the future. Beyond supply and power, these grid and generation investments deliver significant value to our communities. In September, we partnered with E&Y to estimate the economic impact of our investment plan. The 10-year capital plan we laid out in February will equate to over $370 billion in economic health, including approximately $130 billion in labor income and will contribute more than $200 billion to the GDP for the communities we serve.
The investment will also support nearly 170,000 jobs annually. We are privileged to be a critical economic driver of the communities we serve, and we look forward to growing together in the decades to come. In closing, the fundamentals of our business are the strongest they've ever been, we're powering tremendous growth across the Southeast and Midwest with solid plans based on concrete projects that provide durable runway of investment well into the future. We're meeting our financial and strategic objectives while continuing our focus on operational excellence, and I am confident the tailwinds we see will continue to strengthen. With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.
Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 7, we continue to build on the momentum from the first half of the year with reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.81 in the third quarter. This represents over 11% growth versus adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 last year, putting us firmly on track to deliver the targeted growth in 2025. Within the segments, Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.24, driven by higher retail sales volumes and the implementation of new rates across many of our jurisdictions. Weather was above normal in the quarter. but not as favorable as the prior year. And interest expense increased as we execute our growing investment plans. Gas Utilities and Infrastructure results were largely flat to last year, consistent with the seasonality of the LDC business. And finally, the other segment was down $0.04, primarily due to higher interest expense. As we think about the remainder of the year, recall that we have a demonstrated track record of managing agility in both directions.
In the fourth quarter of last year, we implemented an extensive onetime cost savings and agility measures in response to the historic 2024 storm season. In contrast, our strong year-to-date results in 2025, including favorable weather, provide an opportunity to reinvest in the system. With these fourth quarter considerations and year-to-date performance in mind, we are highly confident in achieving our narrowed EPS guidance range of $6.25 to $6.35. Looking ahead to 2026 growth drivers on Slide 8. We expect the constructive regulatory outcomes that are driving 2025 results to continue next year. We are progressing through our multiyear rate plans in North Carolina and Florida, and we'll implement Phase 2 of the Indiana rate case in March. Midwest and Florida grid riders will continue to provide steady growth. We also expect new rates in South Carolina to be effective in the first quarter of 2026. We were pleased to reach constructive settlements last week with the ORS and other interveners in our DEP rate case.
The settlements, which are subject to commission approval are based on a 9.99% ROE and 53% equity ratio and resolve all open items in the case. Our DEC South Carolina rate case continues to progress as well, and we expect final orders in both cases by year-end. I'd also like to highlight that in North Carolina, we provided 30-day notice of our plans to file rate cases for both DEC and DEP later this month. We expect new rates to be effective in early 2027, and we'll provide additional details once the filings are made. As we move through the remainder of the decade, our long-term earnings growth is underpinned by our attractive jurisdictions, which are benefiting from population migration and growing economies. These tailwinds provide an extensive runway of capital development deployment opportunities, which drive steady and increasing rate base growth. With solid business environments and efficient recovery mechanisms in place, we are well positioned to deliver 5% to 7% earnings growth through 2029 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028.
Turning to Slide 9. One of our strategic priorities is to solidify our late-stage economic development pipeline and convert prospects into firm projects. We've been working closely with state and local partners to deliver on that commitment. Internally, we've developed new teams dedicated to speed and execution and implemented creative solutions that accelerate the time to power. These efforts are yielding tangible results. with approximately 3 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements with data centers this year alone. This includes ESAs signed this quarter with Digital Realty and Edged who are making multibillion-dollar investments in North Carolina to support AI infrastructure. And we're not just signing data centers. Our economic development activities have yielded over $11 billion of capital commitments from other commercial and industrial customers in 2025 these projects are expected to bring an additional 25,000 jobs to our service territories and support our load growth projections.
In a rapidly changing external environment where affordability is paramount, I want to emphasize that our electric service agreements contain terms that protect our existing customer base and ensure new large load projects pay their fair share. terms include minimum take provisions, termination charges and refundable capital advances. As a testament to our work delivering on this wave of economic development, in September, we were recognized with the EEI outstanding Customer Engagement award. This award is given directly by corporate customers and highlights our ability to collaborate among broad stakeholder groups on complex projects, and we are just getting started. Active site evaluations are progressing across all of our service territories and many more projects are moving to advanced stage. As our economic development pipeline has matured over the past year, we are more confident than ever in our ability to capture the once-in-a-generation load growth opportunity in front of us.
Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 10. I first want to recognize the work of our regulators and other stakeholders to address cost recovery from last year's historic storm season in record time. With their support, we were able to successfully issue North Carolina storm securitization bonds approximately 1 year after Hurricane Helene, and we expect to issue South Carolina bonds before year-end. Securitization is 1 of the many tools available to help mitigate rate increases for customers, with the North Carolina bonds projected to save customers up to 18% compared to traditional recovery methods. And in Florida, $1.1 billion of storm costs will be fully recovered by February 2026. As a result, bills are expected to decrease by approximately $40 a month beginning in March. Across all 3 jurisdictions, the timely recovery process helps maintain credit quality and reinforces our expectation of achieving 14% or higher FFO to debt by year-end.
As discussed on the second quarter call, we are targeting 15% FFO to debt over the long term, which provides 200 basis points of cushion above our Moody's downgrade threshold and 300 basis points above our S&P downgrade threshold. Our balance sheet will continue to improve as we receive proceeds from the Tennessee and Florida transactions, which we expect to close in early 2026. As Harry discussed earlier, we expect our new 5-year capital plan to be between $95 billion and $105 billion. Consistent with previous guidance, we'll target 30% to 50% equity funding for this incremental growth capital. Transaction proceeds will satisfy equity needs in 2026 and remaining common equity issuances to support growth represent a very modest percentage of our market cap and will help maintain credit quality during this period of unprecedented capital deployment.
We will provide more detail on our capital and financing plan on our fourth quarter call in February. Moving to Slide 11. We are well positioned to deliver earnings within our narrowed guidance range in 2025. And as well as 5% to 7% growth through 2029. As load growth and capital accelerate, we have confidence we will earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. Our extensive runway of capital investments, coupled with efficient recovery mechanisms, position us to achieve our growth targets, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
I appreciate it. Nicely done today. Appreciate the extra details versus your traditional cadence.
Julien, thank you.
Absolutely. So maybe just to kick off here, considering those details that you guys gave us here, can you speak a little bit to the incremental capital that you guys are looking at? I know it's still a range, but how -- when you think about layering that in, is that sort of ratable across the period? Or when you think about layering in that last year does that finally represent a further acceleration even relative to '28 and '29. You know what I mean? Like in theory, the move up from [ 87 by $10 billion ], could be ratable across the forecast period? Or it could be heavily weighted to that final year in 2030? You haven't quite given us the full details here. But I'm curious as to as you think about the cadence of this data center ramp playing itself out, is it really truly weighted towards that last year? Can you speak to that a little bit?
Yes, I'll take that, Julien. The way I would think about it as we're signing up these large load customers, we have more visibility into the infrastructure build we need to make to serve them. And this update in the capital plan has that plus as we get deeper into the energy modernization strategy, we're investing more. So we knew 2030 was going to be higher than 2025 rolling off. But I would think of it as we're adding capital in every year of the plan. And it's to build to that ramp of these large customers as we get more firm contracts signed and more visibility into the infrastructure needs of those customers.
And I would add dynamic it's a very dynamic environment out there. And you saw us raise from 83 to 87 earlier this year with the Brookfield deal in Florida. And then you're seeing our capital expand here because of what we're seeing in data center growth and economic development as well as our modernization that Brian mentioned. So we'll continue to evaluate and update as we move.
I know it is truly unusual for you guys to update twice in a given year. outside of your typical cadence of 4Q. So I hear you on that one. Can you speak a little bit more to what that incremental potential is by this roughly $10 billion? Like what's comprised within that? Is that principally just transmission and generation for new data centers? Or are there other pieces in there?
No, Julien, it's more than that, but it does encompass that. So as we sign more energy service agreements, that's a trigger to invest more transmission and potentially generation in this plan. But we're also evaluating LDC investments that could support the new generation at our Piedmont natural gas company. And those -- all those investments, along with the bull pen of T&D investments that we've got, that we haven't pulled onto the field quite yet we're evaluating all those factors as well as customer affordability as we finalize our final capital plan. That's why we didn't come out with a single point estimate this time because we're still running our models and evaluating rate cases over time and how that might show up.
Julien, we'll have more details in February like we normally do on financing that plan as well as what the details are of that.
Right. But needless to say, you've been pretty committed to the balance sheet, you think the FFO to debt, regardless of where this lands you're going to stick with this updated level pro forma for what you did with Darius here.
Absolutely. We are committed to 15% FFO over time, and we're on target to be over 4 team this year as committed.
Yes. Excellent.
Appreciate it, Julien.
Our next question comes from Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs.
I guess maybe just on the Carolinas IRP, you have included an option for nuclear there, including an AP1000 starting and potentially 2037. I guess, just with some of the announcements that we've seen across the broader nuclear space recently. Just curious how you might envision Duke playing a role in this build-out, particularly as an operator?
Yes. Great question, Carly. As you know, we operate 11 low cost, safe, reliable nuclear reactors today. So nuclear is a big part of our business. We make sure that our customers get reliable and affordable power every day. We earn over $500 million of tax credits a year to go back to our customers from these nuclear plants. So we feel nuclear is a very important part of the future. With that said, there's a lot of things that we have to determine and figure out before we move forward. We're encouraged to see the government and some of the partnerships with Westinghouse that were recently announced leaning into this. addressing supply chain concerns, which is 1 of the items that we have on our list. We still need to figure out what we're going to do with cost overrun protection and how we're going to protect our investors and our customers from overruns on those projects as well as how we're going to protect the balance sheet if we move forward with nuclear.
So we're working to resolve those, working with government officials as well as some of the tech customers. So we'll continue to work that. If you remember last year, our IRP had only SMRs in it. We were asked about the North Carolina Commission to explore light water reactors as well. So we filed a report this past March to show what it would take or what would be an AP1000 type project. So we've added that into our plans in our model, and we'll continue to evaluate both of those SMRs as well as large water reactors. But again, nothing going forward until we have those other items are resolved.
Very clear. Okay. Great. And then maybe just another on Carolinas resource planning. As you laid out the updated plan, the share of gas stayed pretty consistent with the prior plan. I guess, would you expect that to move higher to the extent that there's expanded natural gas pipeline capacity into the Southeast? And would something like the MVP Boost project potentially be a needle mover there?
Yes. There's a lot of gas in that plan as well as a lot of batteries in solar. So we continue all of the above strategy and how we serve our load going forward. We've done a lot of work to secure gas through the early part of 2030, and we continue to work on beyond that. We do expect, as economic development growth continues, we will need more gas and more pipelines and are working with the companies to provide that. So we'll continue to update the process and the progress on that. We feel like dispatchable power is critical to serve these new loads and gas is the source that we're focused on right now.
Our next question comes from Shar Pourreza from Wells Fargo.
It's actually Alex on for Shar. I just wanted to touch on the earnings outlook. So you've indicated you expect to be at the high end of the 5% to 7% starting in -- just sort of want to get a sense, is there any potential for that growth to begin ramping sooner? And if you can just remind us what drives the delta between the 5% to 7% EPS growth and that 8%, 8.5% rate base growth you have out there.
That's great, Alex. And it's the right question as we have these incremental investments, capital plans expanding and customers are getting signed up I would first say that every year, the plan is within the 5% to 7%. But 28% is an inflection point where we're investing more capital in Florida. We were completing the multiyear rate plan. The transaction with Brookfield will be completed, and we talked about expanding capital in Florida in that period. And we're also seeing many of the large load customers we're signing up today are coming online, their projects will be -- we have more visibility in their construction projects. They're be completed in the second half of 2017. So the ramp will begin, but it really hits an inflection point in 2028 and it continues to grow into the early 30s. So that gives us high confidence that we're going to be in the top half of the growth range in 2028. And I want to underscore the growth is strong, and I would think of it as a CAGR in the top half in 2028 off of 2025 base of 6/30, not just an annual growth.
Got it. Okay. help there...
Well, I would add it's -- we feel it's durable to beyond that. We'll continue -- we see the prospects continuing. So we feel like this is a long-term play for us.
Great. Got it. So -- and just on the funding. So you still have a good amount of equity out there. You've done good deals in Tennessee and Florida, which have been accretive. So just other opportunities around asset recycling? Or should we assume equity and equity-like instruments going forward?
Yes, Alex. Our focus is on digesting those 2 big deals that we announced earlier this year, and then we'll continue to fund like we've mentioned before, 30% to 50% of our plan with equity depending on the projects. We'll update the details of that in February, as we always do. But we're committed to protecting the balance sheet, meeting that 15% FFO that we committed to and being above 14% this year.
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
This is Diana Niles on for Jeremy. If I may expand on Alex's first question, I was wondering, to what extent does that high end of 5% to 7% reflects incremental capital? And does any of that incremental capital factor into like the confidence you expressed today to hit the high end of the range starting in 2028.
Diana, I would -- this is Brian. I'll take that. As I think about the top half of the growth range in beginning I would say it fits within any of the $95 billion to $105 billion capital range that we provided. It's not depending upon us being at the high end or it would be lower on the low end. It's contemplated in all those scenarios.
Our next question comes from David Paz from Wolfe Research.
Just on your large load commentary, could you remind me what is the advanced pipeline -- sorry, the pipeline look like for large load -- and how much of that would you say is in advanced discussions that could be added to the 3 gigawatts of ESAs you signed this year?
Yes. Good to hear from you. We have a very large and diverse pipeline of projects. I would say ours is just as big, if not bigger than anybody else is out there. But really, our focus has been on the projects that are from the credible hyperscalers as well as third-party developers that we feel like have the ability to get these projects through fruition. So we're working with them to get through the queue to get through the funnel as we call it, to be able to have these signed ESAs. So we signed in the last 6 months, 3 gigawatts of ESAs, as we mentioned in our presentation, and we continue to work with many others on that. So really focused on nailing down those energy service agreements because that's what we feel is the right focus for us. So we're working through a large pipeline, but really focused on developing those prospects into those final projects.
Okay. Okay. So you wouldn't -- you don't want to characterize how much are like near-term advanced discussions that could be signed over the next year or so?
It's a very dynamic environment, David, and we continue to work on it every day, and we have a dedicated team, like Brian mentioned earlier, that is focused on this 24/7 of how we get this into our system and into these signed agreements as fast as possible.
Got it. Okay. I appreciate that. And sorry to kind of go back to the EPS growth commentary. I just want to make sure I understood what you added, I think, at the end of the durability of this growth starting in 2018, so the upper half of your 5% to 7% beginning in 2028, and that's durable into the 30s at that same level. off of the 20%, I guess, 7%. Is that the way to think about it?
Yes, that's a good assumption. As these economic development projects come into play and we continue to invest in our system, we see that being a durable approach.
Our next question is coming from Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
I got on late, so sorry if I'm repeating a question. I really just had 1 was just the 30% to 50% of equity funding to fund the capital upside, what would kind of put you in the lower end of that range? And what should we be watching there from the balance sheet side that could enable you to do less equity.
Yes, Nick. It's a great question. And we provided this range in previous quarters, and it informed how we funded the capital plan in the current 5-year plan. What would determine the lower end would be investments with a higher velocity of recovery. So there's less equity need as you tack into those investments over time versus more investments that have a bit of slower recovery. Maybe it takes a while to get it into the rider mechanism or the like. We might need some balance sheet support. But the last capital update, we were at 40% of the incremental growth capital funded with common equity or equity support. And I would think of it as at the faster recovery capital would be in the low end and the slower recovery capital being in the more like 50%.
We currently have no further questions. So I'd like to hand back to Harry for some closing remarks.
Yes. Just to wrap up, I want to leave you all with 3 items. Number one, we see a lot of momentum into the end of this year and into '26 and beyond. Two, our business is in the strongest position it has ever been. And finally, I am confident we are going to earn in the top half of our 5% to 7% range beginning in 2028. But more importantly, our plan is durable well into the future. So again, thanks for joining us today, and thank you for your investment in Duke Energy. I hope everybody has a great day.
That concludes today's call. We thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Duke Energy — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Duke Energy — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- EPS: Adjusted $1.81 for Q3 2025 vs $1.62 YoY (~+12%)
- Guidance: Narrowed 2025 full-year EPS to $6.25–$6.35
- Capex & Growth: 5-year plan $95–$105B; >13 GW of generation added
- Long‑term trajectory: 5–7% EPS growth through 2029; top‑half starting 2028
🎯 What Management Says
- Execution focus: Aggressive generation build (>13 GW in 5 years) with a durable earnings runway and a larger capital plan.
- Affordability: Cost-management via AI, securitization and rate mechanisms to keep bills below inflation; customer value front and center.
- Economic development: 3 GW ESAs signed this year; >$11B cap commitments; ~25,000 jobs supported; awards for customer engagement.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- FY2025: EPS guidance narrowed to $6.25–$6.35.
- Long-run: 5–7% EPS growth through 2029; top-half capable from 2028; >8.5% rate-base growth through 2030.
- Capital mix: $95–$105B capex; 30–50% equity funding; 15% FFO to debt; regulatory updates in 2026.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Cadence of capex: Incremental ~$10B may layer in across years as data-center loads firm up; investments span transmission, generation, and LDC needs; more detail in February.
- Nuclear in Carolinas: Nuclear remains important; evaluating AP1000/SMR options, with cost overruns protection and balance-sheet safeguards; no moves until issues resolved.
- Large-load pipeline: Robust prospect pipeline; 3 GW ESAs signed this year; near-term opportunities depend on advanced discussions and signed contracts.
⚡ Bottom Line
Duke Energy signals a durable, high‑growth path underpinned by a multiyear capex program and strong data-center load expansion. Expect 5–7% EPS growth through 2029 with a top‑half performance from 2028, supported by rate actions and securitization to shield customers. Execution and regulatory timing remain key risks.
Financial data from Duke Energy
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 33,250 33,250 |
6%
6%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 9,521 9,521 |
1%
1%
29%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 23,729 23,729 |
9%
9%
71%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 15,468 15,468 |
7%
7%
47%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 6,618 6,618 |
9%
9%
20%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 8,850 8,850 |
5%
5%
27%
|
|
| Net Profit | 5,189 5,189 |
9%
9%
16%
|
|
In millions USD.
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Duke Energy Stock News
Company Profile
Duke Energy Corp. engages in distribution of natural gas and energy related services. It operates through the following segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment conducts operations primarily through the regulated public utilities of Duke Energy Carolinas, Duke Energy Progress, Duke Energy Florida, Duke Energy Indiana and Duke Energy Ohio. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment focuses on natural gas operations primarily through the regulated public utilities of Piedmont and Duke Energy Ohio. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, develops, builds, operates, and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, NC.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | United States |
| CEO | Mr. Sideris |
| Employees | 26,441 |
| Founded | 1904 |
| Website | www.duke-energy.com |


