Gecina Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = €4.91b | Revenue (TTM) = €734.45m
Market Cap = €4.91b | Estimated Revenue = €713.61m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = €11.65b | Revenue (TTM) = €734.45m
Enterprise Value = €11.65b | Forward Revenue = €713.61m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Gecina Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
24 Analysts have issued a Gecina forecast:
Analyst Opinions
24 Analysts have issued a Gecina forecast:
Gecina Events
Past Events
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JUL
23
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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APR
23
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
5 months ago
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FEB
11
2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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OCT
15
Gecina, Nine Months 2025 Earnings Call, Oct 15, 2025
11 months ago
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Gecina — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to the Gecina 2026 Half Year Earnings Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Today, we have Benat Ortega, CEO; and Nicolas Dutreuil, Deputy CEO in charge of Finance as our presenters. I will now hand you over to your host, Benat Ortega, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to review our performance for H1 2026. Three themes will guide today's discussion. The first half of 2026, we continue to deliver growth in both revenues and earnings. This growth comes with stronger long-term fundamentals, a higher quality portfolio and [indiscernible] leverage, and we are actively working to build tomorrow's self-funded sustainable growth for the next years. I'll come back to this point at the end.
Let's start with H1 2026 achievements. Leasing activity was sustained this semester. We signed 48,000 square meters in 6 months, sustaining a rental uplift of 13%, while keeping our occupancy high around 94%. Looking ahead, our pipeline of surfaces under term sheets now reaches 50,000 square meters, including discussions with major tech players. We expect this discussion to close before the end of the year.
On the multifamily side, we signed 650 leases with a strong increase in occupancy, up 170 basis points year-on-year. This shows the ramp-up of the strategy we've been deploying for 2 years now, furnished and serviced apartments as well as co-living solutions alongside our traditional family units. A good example of the way we capture strong rental uplift is the proactive rollout of our fully managed offices. We offer a plug-and-play product, one point of contact, one invoice and flexibility, and the market is ready to pay for that.
It now represents more than 16,000 square meters across 16 buildings. In Central Paris, where this offering is most relevant. Based on market trends for traditional leases, we achieved rents 30% to 40% above market values after deducting our costs, including CapEx. Basically, we achieved rents similar to redeveloped assets without entirely vacating the building for 18 or 24 months. This is particularly relevant for typical small-sized traditional Parisian office assets.
We have already targeted 40 assets, and we expect to double this portfolio by the end of 2028. We are also working hard on customer satisfaction to retain our tenants for longer. This enhanced our visibility on occupancy higher for longer and strengthened portfolio resilience overall. Thanks to proactive renewals and renegotiations, our tenant retention rate was 10 points higher this year than the 3-year average.
This reflects a broader market trend, one that was probably reinforced recently and that helps explain the apparent subdued take-up since tenant retention doesn't fully show up in market data in France. This translates into our capacity to grow revenues. Our rental income grew by 2% on a like-for-like basis, outperforming indexation by 100 basis points in a context where inflation has been slowing down until recently, which is no surprise.
It's even been up 7.6% on our housing portfolio, thanks to a solid catch-up in occupancy and growing rents per square meter. On a current basis, the contribution from our different growth drivers, organic growth, the immediate accretive acquisition we made last year in Paris as well as recent pipeline deliveries offset the disposal of mature residential assets as well as asset repositioning and potential conversions.
Going from the top line to the bottom line, we continue to optimize our property costs to generate a solid increase in rental margin, up 160 basis points year-on-year. Zooming out to the broader cost base, H1 confirms a significant decrease in our EPRA cost ratio from 21% in 2021 to 14% now. Same focus on financial costs, which remain well contained, thanks to our strong hedging policy and disciplined financing strategy.
All in all, earnings continue to grow, and we confirm our guidance for 2026. Recurring net income expected to be between EUR 6.70 and EUR 6.75 per share. We delivered this growth while improving our fundamentals from portfolio quality to tenant base to robustness of our financing platform. We have obviously worked on improving the quality of our portfolio.
In the context where more than 4% of office stock was converted in housing or hotels in Paris' most sought-after locations, we have been firmly anchoring our portfolio in the prime side of the market and where prime rents continue to grow in real terms after incentives and above inflation. This is a long-term effort, and it requires consistency over time. Thanks to proactive disposals even in subdued investment markets, acquisitions and redevelopments, Paris and Neuilly share of our rents has already grown by 7 points since 2021. Those 7 points will become 20 points by 2031, all else equal, representing a doubling of our Paris and Neuilly office rents in 10 years.
At the same time, we have made our portfolio more prime. 65% of our office portfolio has been restructured over the past 10 years, and we have identified 40 assets to further deploy Yourplace, a fully managed office offering to be more appealing against our competition. On this journey, we have also reinforced the quality of our tenant base, and we take pride in hosting more blue-chip names you see on this slide, French or global leaders alike in our portfolio, the last one being Mondelez Group in Boulogne last month.
Values are holding firm, broadly stable like-for-like. Central location values, in particular, are up 0.3% in an investment market where Paris now concentrates 75% of transaction volumes, in line with what we observed in 2024 and 2025. This isn't a surprise. The investment market generally tracks the leasing market and tenants favor centrality and quality.
One important news behind the figures, we have also renewed our independent appraisals and all assets have been assessed by a new appraiser this semester. One of the key fundamentals we pay great attention to, as you know, is our financing structure. Summarizing H1 in a nutshell, our credibility was confirmed again with both rating agencies reiterating our best-in-class credit profile for the eighth consecutive year.
The bond we issued in May, EUR 500 million over 5 years at a very competitive spread of 68 bps is a further proof of our competitive advantage against our peers on the bond market. In this context, we continuously maintain visibility with stable leverage, all future growth already funded for this year. I'll come back to this, strong liquidity with new credit lines and bonds and efficiency of our financing platform with strong hedging and contained cost of debt at 1.6%. [indiscernible] debt then as our model funds its own future revenue and value growth.
In 6 months, we closed EUR 250 million of disposals of mature assets at a rent loss rate of 3.1% to fund the CapEx of the redevelopment pipeline launched end of 2024. Another EUR 80 million was secured in July at a rental loss on average of 2.4%. This year's financing need for development is EUR 265 million. The return on CapEx invested in Paris and redevelopment is 10.6%.
This is how we approach capital allocation tools on an agnostic basis, always with the aim to combine improving portfolio quality to drive future long-term rental growth, keeping leverage at a safe medium, long-term level in support of our rating and selecting the most cash flow accretive investment for shareholders and adjusting at any time for the best option.
Signature in Paris CBD is a good illustration of this approach. It's a destination asset for corporate headquarters and already a leasing and value creation success just 12 months after acquisition. Our leasing progress is 15% above our initial underwriting. EUR 150 million of value has been already created in 12 months. And through this transaction, we have reinforced the portfolio quality with more prime central value. The CBD share of our portfolio grew by 4%.
We funded the acquisition and refurbishments without impacting leverage by selling a mature student housing portfolio, yielding below 4% and value creation is already there with an updated yield on cost of 7% on actual rents. Let me now turn to how we are building tomorrow's value creation. When we look at the market, it's important to stress that Paris stands out as one of the few global cities offering such a diversity of tenant base.
It's the leading financial hub in Continental Europe and a corporate and industrial's powerhouse hosting 88% of CAC 40 headquarters. Additionally, in a centralized country like France, it's also home to most national and global public institutions. And it's less known, but Paris is also becoming Continental Europe's leading hub for AI and tech.
Several reasons explain this, the depth of the talent pool in Paris, scientists, engineers, data specialists, the existing ecosystem of hundreds of start-ups and AI leaders and capital velocity with strong public and private investment now reaching EUR 109 billion after Choose France. And it already shows up in the figures, the real estate figures.
Tech companies take-up has doubled between 2023 and 2025, concentrated in prime submarkets with major transactions from Datadog, Mistral AI, and ChapsVision. Same story on Gecina's Rental, tech, fintech and healthtech rents have doubled across our office portfolio between 2021 and today, and tech now represents 17% of our total office rents.
Zooming out a bit. In the last weeks, we have interviews together with Ifop 500 French CEOs regarding AI and 2/3 say they have already an AI strategy deployed or working on one. Interestingly, 9 in 10 of those business leaders surveyed think that artificial intelligence will impact the office, not to replace it, but to make it more strategic and collaborative.
And among 72% of leaders who expect their real estate strategy to evolve in the coming years, the main move expected is flight to quality, favoring central offices, best connected to public transport, flexible and collaborative workspaces and amenitizing serviced office buildings to attract and retain the best talent. The destination assets we are designing are aligned with these trends. They are modular by design to adapt to evolving needs.
This thinking on the product is key, in my view, to meet the market with the right offering and deliver the expected annual rents of EUR 80 million to EUR 90 million once delivered and fully let. The first signs are encouraging. Signature now is 60% secured. We have advanced discussions on 3/4 of arches, a healthy pipeline of visits and discussion across all projects, including a first fully managed office in quarter project.
In May, we also launched works on Shape, the new name of the T1 Tower in La Défense. We bring the codes of hospitality, modern services and curated design to transform the experience of this tower. This 18-month refurbishment will reposition the tower on the strong side of the market, where you have seen that vacancy has been down recently, and we already have interest, though it's still early for prospects to commit.
Looking forward, and we have already confirmed guidance for 2026, the next cycle of growth is progressively taking shape. 2027 will be likely a transition year with much depending on the pace of pre-leasing of the Paris and Neuilly pipeline. From 2028 in a normalized inflation environment, rent contribution from the redeveloped assets will sustain rental and earnings growth together with the progressive re-leasing of Shape.
As you can see, we are working hard on the short term to deliver growth today while also preparing tomorrow's value creation, always with the same discipline on capital allocation to extract more value. Thank you all for listening, and we are now happy to answer your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF.
2. Question Answer
I would have 2 questions. The first one on the asset value. So I understand that you have new appraisers. And so could you maybe give us maybe more color about the comments on the valuations for your central [ areas ] and also maybe a comment on what has happened in La Défense, I think there's a one-off effect maybe on T1 and B. And maybe after that, I can ask you my second question.
Yes. Listen, the trends in Paris Central locations are the same regarding rents. We had a positive cash flow effect on our Parisian assets. And appraisals are based on the current situation, expanded a bit the yields on the prime portfolio. So that's why growth has been a bit more limited than the previous semester with no major changes regarding appraisals. On La Défense, yes, there is a small impact on La Défense on the T1 and B towers, and that explains most of it.
Okay. And so maybe my second question would be on the leasing side. So I think this is the first time that you report the square meters signed on term sheets. So I understand that when you sign on term sheets, so the rents are quite secured, let's say, at 99% or something like that. How can we compare this volume of 50,000 square meters signed on the term sheet compared to previous period? Is it above same or below that what you were able to sign in the past?
I would say that the situation in France is a bit in a wait-and-see mode. So that's why we gave a bit that indication. So conversations are longer than before. So that's why we have more volumes in term sheet before going to Signature than what we had before. And as it was a sizable amount against what we signed during H1, we thought it was interesting to guide you a bit on what were the current discussions with tenants.
The next question comes from Ebrahim Homani from CIC.
I have 2, if I may. The first one is about the rental margin, is there room for further improvement in H2? And my second question is about your dividend distribution policy. What payout ratio to expect in 2026, given the recurring rental improvement?
Ebrahim, can you just repeat the question, please? We just got interrupted in the call, can you repeat your question.
It was about the rental margin in H2, is there room for further improvement? And my second question is about your dividend distribution policy. What level of dividend could we expect in 2026 given the...
Yes. Regarding rental margin, we worked a lot on that during the first half, like we did on the previous years. I think we should be a bit in line in H2 against what we did in H1. Really, it's a series of super small amounts, very detailed work by the teams on both resi and -- resi teams and office teams, which is paying off now. So it should be rather similar during H2.
Regarding dividend policy, I think we gave somehow a view that the dividend that we pay today based on the current distribution rate is rather fine and that we can sustain that dividend for the medium term and progressively increase it alongside with leasing. So that's what the message we conveyed in February during our annual earnings call is still in line with what we have in mind now.
The next question comes from Benjamin Legrand from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Just 2 questions from my side. The first question would be on the guidance and what you expect over the second part of the year, considering where you are at the moment? I mean, I see it as a bit shy. So I was just wondering what you expect? And then the second question would be in La Défense regarding IDEMIA, if you have any news coming from them if they could be staying or not in their tower.
Yes. We had in mind to have different semesters between H1 and H2. It's a lot of small elements, but we are still in line with what we are planning to deliver for year-end. So that's why, in fact, we have kept the guidance like it was. Leasing is progressing according to plan. So that's why we are capable to confirm the guidance even during this complex situation.
Regarding La Défense, obviously, I will not be able to comment precisely on one tenant discussion. But regarding B Tower, which is for everyone, the building which is next to T1 Tower, where ENGIE has a sublease, which is called IDEMIA. And we are progressing well on being capable to keep occupancy on that building. But sorry, we are still working on it and negotiating. So I will not be able to comment precisely on the specific IDEMIA yet.
The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator from GS.
So how do you see the investment market? Obviously, the valuations are down slightly, values you've changed. Do you have appetite? And do you have -- do you think there's liquidity for additional disposals in the market today? And at the same time, can you please also highlight opportunities of reinvestments and how you compare to the investment opportunities, do you see any in the market versus potential share buybacks?
Thank you, Jonathan. I think we all saw the stats regarding investment market in Paris region, which are really shy. So liquidity is pretty limited. Still some in Paris and our cities, but still pretty shy. So the investment market following inflation and the rise in interest rates have been declining in terms of volumes. That's probably why appraisals have thought that it was a slight decompression of our yields. And therefore, no major moves to be expected in my view on the Paris investment market...
Sorry, just follow up very quickly. Candido for instance, was highlighting that insurance companies have been collected capital, they have been trying to reinvest in some areas, I mean they were highlighting actually foreign investments. What are you seeing from that type of investors currently?
A bit, but no massive move. I agree with you, they have collected a series of amounts of money, especially in assurance-vie, so the life insurance business. But so far, we have not seen them really active on our market. It might change, but so far, I see the market pretty muted. What is left there is probably family office. You saw that there was some rumor regarding Pontegadea trying to buy Capital 8. It might be executed in the next days, but we are not in the deal. Outside of family and pension fund money, not much to say.
Okay. What are you seeing in terms of reinvestment opportunities in the market? And is that something that you would consider currently?
Obviously, our -- and I think it's in line with the question regarding share buyback. Our hurdle for capital -- cost of capital is pretty high. So we are obviously very careful and demanding on the returns regarding acquisitions. So -- and as the market has been a bit frozen in the next months, I don't see so many opportunities in the market for acquisitions. But again, it might change. The situation is pretty volatile. So...
And generally speaking, I mean, can you help us understand, I mean, obviously, I understand why liquidity currently is low in the market. But what's your appetite to continue disposals? Obviously, you've been doing some disposals in H1 that are funding your pipeline. What is your appetite in principle to test the market if you find some pockets of liquidity in there?
Our appetite is always the same one. We disposed like EUR 3 billion in the last 4 years. So we try to find as much liquidity as possible on our portfolio and then to have the means to reinvest in the best cash flow accretive opportunities. So we are very pragmatic on the situation.
And like you saw, we have secured almost EUR 300 million disposal this year, which is after what we did last year and the year before and the year before, a proof that we are very dedicated, in fact, to rotate capital as fast as possible to generate shareholder return.
The next question comes from Aaron Guy from Citi.
Can I just ask a little bit more -- for a bit more color on the Paris occupier market? So in particular, the supply-demand imbalance you've got rising tech demand that's pretty dynamic at the moment, traditional businesses fighting to retain talent and also hiring to apply sort of AI.
Is there enough supply response? Is there new opportunities in that market? When you look at tenant affordability, should we expect that prime rents continue to rise sort of going forward?
It's the million-dollar question. The last leases that we signed in Signature were the highest of Gecina's history. So obviously, when we deliver prime, flexible, large floor plate, amenitized buildings next to the best transportation hub in Europe, obviously, we can capture even higher rents than before. So that's still working pretty well. And obviously, that neighborhood concentrates a lot of different occupiers, which are looking for more square meters and more space or better space.
You saw that JLL took some stuff. We had consulting firms. We have seen also tech firms taking square meters in the neighborhood. So on the best spots and the best assets, we still see great appetite and growing rents for the most prime assets. And at the same time, because the situation is uncertain, and that you saw on our Q1 and H1 results, we see a growing clientele for flex office business. Co-working occupancies are pretty high, and we have seen great appetite for our service office business.
So that's another way to capture a growing clientele in more general terms, the market is more wait-and-see. So that's why to grow our company, we are trying to build the products and the services, in fact, to capture those growing clientele.
And just on investment markets, I mean aside from the specific sort of asset sort of differences and issues. When you look at the investment market more broadly, you mentioned that since the Middle East conflict, there's been a bit of a tempering of demand. If that was to resolve, would you expect some of that demand to come back? Are there any other issues that you think are holding the investment market back?
The Middle East situation has been quite frustrating to be fair because when we saw what was occurring in autumn, clearly, we were seeing greater investment appetite. Blackstone bought a big asset. And we saw a series of large transactions at pretty tight yields and high value per square meter. And obviously, the Middle East situation has frozen a bit of the situation.
So that shows that before that situation and rising interest rates following inflation, there was clearly an appetite for prime Parisian assets on the investment market because of, again, that balance between scarcity of qualitative products and pretty decent occupier appetite. So the situation is still a bit the same. So hopefully, the situation will bounce back if the Middle East situation and interest rate situation clarifies a bit.
Yes. And just one quick technical one, if I can. Just on the EPS guidance, are there any sort of key up or downside risks that you see within your range?
Not, really. That's why we kept -- we had a quite precise view on 2026 when we gave our guidance because most of the time in our business, the volatility of our earnings 12 months ahead is linked to pre-leasing of pipeline. So we had a good view on renewals and relettings on our existing portfolio. So that's why we gave a tight range in which we are still there.
We still have some leasing to do to achieve the higher range of the guidance. So that's why we gave that. But that's -- the rationale is because limited pipeline delivery in '26 gave us a pretty precise view on where we might land for 2026. And we are basically in line with the plan for the last months.
[Operator Instructions]
On the bottom line, as we're 100% hedged, therefore, that gives you the indication on the earnings.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Ana Escalante from Morgan Stanley.
Just one quick question on maintenance CapEx. I believe that in full year presentation, you said that you were expecting a run rate just below EUR 100 million per annum. But it looks like this half, you've already spent EUR 75 million in maintenance CapEx. That run rate was more maybe medium-term guidance for '27, '28 onwards and those -- this first half is more of a one-off? Or has this changed at all and you now expect to spend a little bit more in maintenance CapEx?
Yes. Thank you, Ana, for your question. You're right in what you say. It's rather a one-off that might last 1 or 2 years. What I gave as an indication is we are more catch-up CapEx on our housing portfolio, some facade to change, some balconies to repair that takes some time. But once that period about catch-up CapEx on the resi, we should reenter into a significantly lower maintenance CapEx average.
All right. We are having written questions, and I'm going to take the one by [ Suzanne van from Kempen ], which is the first one. Who is the buyer of the resi disposals? Could they do more? Or do you see more appetite? The second question is, it seems the committed CapEx for 2026 is now covered. So is it fair to say that any additional disposals would be recycled? Or would you prefer more headroom on leverage metrics?
Regarding resi disposals during H1 and the new one, it's a combination between core funds looking for resi assets overall, bed and shed is quite a popular investment thesis these days and public entities or state-owned entities buying in those assets. And the last is we have unit-by-unit disposal program on some assets. So we have sold probably EUR 25 million of housing assets unit by unit to individuals. So it's rather diversified.
And we have -- as I said to Jonathan earlier, we try to find the best buyers and try to find all the pockets potentially available for us for disposals. And very pragmatically, as we always do, we try one to fund the company. So that's why funding the pipeline was priority #1.
And the next one then will be -- and we will see how the situation evolves during the year, what we do with the additional proceeds, if any. And again, the investment market is not buoyant these days. So if any, we will see if we further improve our balance sheet through deleveraging or we find cash flow accretive reinvestments of any type.
So really, we will look at the situation in the next month very pragmatically, depending on how much we can sell and what is the best option for the long-term prospects of the company.
The next question comes from Kanad Mitra from Barclays.
I kind of was already wondering about touching on your last point, given that the investment market is in a little bit of -- the liquidity is lower and your business plan kind of at this point is recycling assets into development pipeline. How confident are you to carry out that plan without raising leverage?
And another question, again, can you shed some light on the kind of deals that you are seeing in the occupier market, which are like AI-led tenants? Just a little bit of deal -- just a little bit of color would be nice.
Yes. Liquidity on the investment market is limited, but it's hopefully temporary. So we will -- we have quite a seasoned and proactive investment team looking at opportunities. So we'll obviously, over the next months, be super proactive, engaging with as many investors as possible to find the best options. So we'll try really to continue as we do on the leasing side, in fact, to be as proactive as possible on any type of deal. And regarding leverage and reinvestment, again, we will observe the situation and find the best options, hopefully.
Regarding the occupier market, on the large deals, and it will not surprise you, you know that we have quite a diverse tenant base, like I mentioned during the presentation in Paris. So when you look at the large deals which are on the market these days, we have energy companies. We still have some luxury names, which are looking for square meters. We signed a lease earlier on this year with a very well-known luxury company, including service office, by the way, with them. We have also tech names, which are pure AI, but also the famous large tech U.S. names.
There was French and there is French AI companies in the market. So Mistral signed a large lease in Paris last year. But there is -- there are 2 or 3 pretty large transactions that might occur. Not sure in our buildings, but let's say, they are active on the market. We have seen also banks expanding again their footprint. So it's quite diverse in fact, the leasing market, even if it's quite slow, but there are deals in the market.
All right. We are having another question on the chat. So from Sheetal Jaimalani from Deutsche Bank. Portfolio -- so 2 questions here. Portfolio values were down 0.5% like-for-like with a yield effect partly offset by a rental effect. Do you expect further yield pressure in [ non-central ] markets in H2? That's the first question.
The second question is you completed the EUR 250 million of disposal in H1 and secured another EUR 80 million in July. Is the disposal program largely complete for 2026? Or should we expect further asset sales and any target for 2026?
Portfolio values, yields and rents, I think it's too early. We just got the H1 appraisals right now. So we will have to observe the market after summer and to see the way it goes. So it's really too early to answer the question, at least we know what was in H1. And like I said, we rotated all our appraisers also to give you as much confidence in the strength of the way we operate and provide the value of our portfolio in our balance sheet.
And on the second question, I think we don't have really a disposal program in place. It's really being proactive on capital allocation like we have always been with those 3 views, trying to through disposal improve the average quality of what we have, keep the leverage and find the more accretive investment opportunities. So we are still in that line. And we start the year with 0, and we try to do as much as we can.
I think we're done with the questions. If there are not any more questions in the room. And if it's not the case, then we can give the floor to Benat for concluding words.
Again, thank you all for listening and for your questions. And we are very happy to meet you very soon after the H1 earnings call. Thank you all. Bye-bye.
Gecina — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Gecina — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to Gecina Q1 2026 Activity Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
Today, we have Benat Ortega, CEO; and Nicolas Dutreuil, Deputy CEO in charge of Finance as our presenters. I will now hand you over to your host, Benat Ortega, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to share an update of the execution of our strategy today. One word to begin with on rental income. Our rental income increased in Q1 on a like-for-like basis, up 2.3% to EUR 176 million. This again shows our ability to outperform indexation, supported by rental uplift and a consistently high level of occupancy.
As expected, indexation is decelerating, reflecting the slowdown in inflation and construction costs in France last year with the usual lag effect embedded in our leases. On a current basis, rental income reflects the impact of the significant disposals executed last year as we recycled mature capital from residential assets into higher-yielding opportunities in the office segment.
Occupancy remains high and broadly stable year-on-year with more than solid activity in Paris and an acceleration of our residential occupancy. The temporary increase in vacancy in Boulogne reflects the time required to release surfaces vacated following lease maturities last year. But we have signed several leases in Boulogne during Q1 and public transport will improve significantly with the upcoming arrival of a new metro ring line next year after some delays.
Turning now to leasing activity. We started 2026 with a solid leasing momentum. It's been 23,000 square meters signed between January and March, securing EUR 18 million of annual rents on an average lease maturity of around 7 years. Around 1/3 of this performance relates to renewals, illustrating our ability to anticipate lease maturities and secure occupancy ahead of time, while the remaining 2/3 comes from new clients, reflecting continued business development.
The development of our fully managed offices is also progressing very well. These represent more than 16,000 square meters and EUR 16 million of annual rents, marking a 33% increase compared to the figures we shared at the end of 2025. We are convinced there is a strong demand for high-quality, well-designed spaces offering more services and greater visibility, and we will continue the rollout of our food service business in the next quarters.
On the residential side, leasing dynamics are also positive with 335 leases signed, up 12% on a like-for-like basis. This confirms both the strength of our operating housing platform and the relevance of our diversified offering.
Let me now spend the time on the pipeline. We continue to see a lengthy activity and interest across all our developments, and that includes also T1 Tower now named Shape. Discussions are active and well qualified, involving a diversified mix of large corporates as well as midsized or small tenants. On several assets, we are running parallel expression of interest and discussions, which is a positive sign for demand depth.
60% of Signature, the first asset to be delivered end of '26 is now secured, including a landmark deal with the global real estate expert, JLL on almost 7,000 square meters and ongoing negotiations are occurring on several other floors. As you would expect, discussions are at different stages of maturity. For assets with later delivery dates, conversations are naturally at early stage, while visibility and conversion tend to improve as construction progresses and projects become more tangible for tenants.
Lastly, portfolio rotation continued in 2026. The EUR 200 million disposals at 3.5% yield all at the full year are now fully completed. And in addition, we have secured a further EUR 50 million of disposals at a 2.2% yield, reflecting the quality and maturity of the assets sold. These proceeds will fund the EUR 265 million of development CapEx currently being invested in the four large flagship projects we are -- you are familiar with, targeting double-digit yields on CapEx. It clearly illustrates the value creation embedded in our capital recycling strategy.
The repositioning of T1 is also progressing as planned. The tenant has moved, allowing us to start works early May, around 15 months ahead of lease expiry while securing rental income until June 2027 and therefore, meaningfully reducing the expected void period during renovation. Overall, these actions are fully aligned with our core objective of improving returns for shareholders while preserving a resilient and future-proof leverage profile. We remain disciplined and pragmatic in our capital allocation, continuously assessing all options with no taboo.
One last word before turning to your questions. Based on the performance we have seen so far and our current visibility, we confirm with confidence the guidance we have already shared with recurring net income expected in the range of EUR 6.7 to EUR 6.75 per share.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF.
2. Question Answer
I would have maybe two questions. So the first one on the leasing side. We understand that you have discussion in progress and you are confident about the leasing of your development project and prime assets. But what about Boulogne? So we have seen that vacancy has increased this quarter. So do you think that now we have touched a low point? And when do you think that Boulogne can be positive in terms of leasing activity and in terms of occupancy for Gecina?
Yes. On Boulogne, I think we are close to the low point, obviously. We are releasing progressively the square meters we have available. We have 3 buildings there. We have signed, as I said, several leases already in Q1. I think leasing is under progress. So we should improve progressively the situation. And as I mentioned, the metro line, we are expecting the metro line for now three years. The train station is finalized and it should open probably late this year or early next year, and I think it will improve significantly the attractivity of that area.
Okay. So now meaning that we can expect more positive to come from Boulogne or neutral...
Yes, it will progressively ramp up. Yes.
Okay. That's good. And maybe a second question on share buyback. So we understand that maybe you are today more open for share buyback. So how do you -- would you like to include it in your allocation policy and maybe at what share price could be interesting for you to look at share buyback according to the current market condition from the recent data?
I wouldn't say we are more open or less open. Like we mentioned in the earlier calls, we have a triangle approach on capital allocation. Obviously, it starts from disposals, it needs to be in line with the objectives we have for the balance sheet. And then once we have the cash, we need to assess which is the best option.
Obviously, and the best options depend on opportunities on the market and the share price and therefore, always linked to the cost of capital and the best use of the capital. So that's why we said with no taboos, we will find the best options based on those 3 elements, which is balance sheet, disposals and then use of proceeds.
The next question comes from Valerie Jacob from Bernstein.
I just have some follow-up questions from the question that was just asked. Maybe on the vacancy, how do you see your vacancy rate evolving during the year? Do you think that it will -- in the office market, do you think you will go back up to where it was? Or do you think you will stay here or deteriorate? If you could give us some guidance on how do you see this evolving, that would be helpful.
Yes. Thank you, Valerie for your question. As I always said, vacancy can fluctuate from a quarter to another around the figures we post in average. So this quarter, it was slightly down on the office. At the same time, you might have seen that it was significantly up on the resi.
So I will not read across one quarter figure to determine what should be for the full year. That's a bit the situation. Like you saw office CBD, which was a big question on the market following ImmoStat news. We grew a lot our rents in Paris. We grew occupancy. Reversionary was significantly higher than last year.
So I think -- but again, 18% reversion or uplift in average for Q1. I will not draw a line saying that it's annual figure. So I think it was excellent in Paris, a bit tougher in Boulogne, but big picture, we grew more than 1% our like-for-like above inflation. So big picture, I think it was a positive quarter and on long-term vacancy, I think it will improve over time, fluctuating obviously, from quarter to another.
Okay. And maybe also a follow-up on the share buyback. So I mean, I understand that you said if you dispose of some assets, you have all options. But maybe do you have any sort of financial metrics to share with us on, you want to reinvest at sort of 7%. And if you don't, then below this level, you think that share buyback will be more accretive? Maybe just like if you can share some numbers on how you think about it?
Sure. I think the metric which is important is keeping our LTV where it is. So that's really our DNA. I think we don't want to buy growth with debt these days. I think the market is uncertain. Rates are pretty high this time. So I think keeping our A- rating is clearly a clear line for us in terms of strategy.
That being said, then we calculate our cost of capital based on the current share price. We look at potential acquisition and what they can deliver and assess which is the best option, like I said. So based on a stable LTV at EUR 70 or EUR 80 per share, the equilibrium is around 6.57% acquisition. So that's a bit -- basically the metrics with the same LTV. I have in mind that the equivalent to buy EUR 100 million of assets is EUR 70 million share buyback to keep the same LTV. So that makes a bit the metrics flying on both cases.
The next question comes from Benjamin Legrand from Kepler.
Can you hear me?
Yes.
I just had one more time, a question about Boulogne, more for 2027. If you do expect some big tenant to be leaving at that time or not?
No, in 2027, no major expiring in Boulogne. Have in mind that, over the last 3 or 4 years, 4 of our 5 assets have been vacated, and we have been capable, in fact, to release almost full Horizons Tower to 70% of Sources and probably we have released or renewed half of the Citylights. So obviously, it's a challenging area, but we see a decent leasing activity on the ground in Boulogne. So that's why I was commenting about the ramp-up after those departures from '22 to '25.`
Okay. And if I may ask a second question. You are mentioning 6.5% to 7% acquisition would be interesting for you instead of share buybacks. I was just wondering if you could add more colors about the investment market today, if you see that kind of potential acquisition coming on to your table at the moment or if the market is really muted or not? If you could add some colors.
Yes, sure. It's -- the investment market is pretty complex to read, especially after the rate increase, after the Iran war. It plays two roles. Obviously, more complex to sell at tight yields, and at the same time, it gives more room for maneuver to buy assets.
So I would say the -- as long as we can continue to dispose at decent prices, obviously, it gives more opportunities to buy on the right locations, the right assets to generate growth in the future. But the investment market is pretty quiet since now more than that.
But are sellers willing to be selling at 6.5% at the moment? Or do they prefer to just keep...
No. The best assets, well-restructured, trade at significant lower yields. Some deals were even occurring during Q1, below 4% yields. But this is not the type of assets we try to buy. We try to buy complex situations where our integrated platform can generate better growth than other players.
So typically where there is development risk or leasing risk or the capacity to generate better rents through our fully serviced office business. So we tend to be an operator instead of just an investor, and that's where there might be a gap between what can generate a passive investor and what we can generate. And that's typically what we did on Signature, on the Rocher-Vienne acquisition.
There was clearly a difference in the underwriting assumptions between what we did and what basically we are delivering, and we are delivering over budget, especially in terms of rents and what a passive investor can generate. So that's those fractions where we play our role.
The next question comes from Veronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen.
I wanted to focus a bit on the resi bit. Obviously, a very strong performance, plus 7.5%. Could you give some additional color on the exact drivers? Is that mainly coming from those transformations and the service product? Or do you see a strong performance in the resi segment in general?
And also, again, some disposals in that market. How are those discussions going? Do you see more potential there? And who are the buyers there at the moment?
Two questions in one. We commented on last year, on the fact that we were significantly transforming the way to operate our resi platform. Coming from really traditional resi where it was just flat by flat pre-leasing, no furniture, no service and so on, where we have transformed our business model towards different kind of offerings in the same building with services on top, so that each square meter has the best profitability.
So each time a flat is vacated, we try to find the best way to maximize shareholder value. Therefore, sometimes it can be co-living. So we split into several rooms, we provide services to students and then we lease up the rent. Sometimes it's just furnishing the flat. Sometimes it's B2B deals with, I don't know, expats or embassies. So each time for one flat, we try to find the best solution.
Obviously, it's more management intensive. So we have to change our processes, our teams, our concierge and so on to be capable to address this more premium and valuable clientele. But that's starting to pay off with an improved occupancy and also uplift -- more regular uplifts because those tenants tend to rotate faster and we can capture better growth.
More generally speaking, in terms of resi, in terms of leasing, we are not really a fREIT proxy of the market. Our portfolio is 80% in Paris. Everything is next to Paris. So obviously, we have a high-end clientele, international clientele, with affluent people. And therefore, we -- the role we have is try to offer them services that they can't find elsewhere, fitnesses, co-working places, laundries, experience homes that they can't find in that super fragmented living space in Paris.
Paris is mainly owned by individuals owning one flat, and we can provide something really different. And that's a different situation against other cities where you find more institutional investors, which are delivering those projects. So we make the difference with the fact that we own large buildings, and we can offer services that they can't find in the, let's say, general market.
In terms of disposals, the disposal activity, a bit like in offices is pretty quiet, but we have found different type of investors willing to buy some residential assets last year and when we continue this year. It can be pension funds, it can be insurance companies, it can be state-owned entities which are willing to expand their living platform. So we see decent appetite on the living as a whole. So bed and shed looks attractive these days. And then we need to find the guys which are willing for the most prime location, willing to pay for the decent price.
Okay. That's helpful. And maybe one additional question on the resi. Looking at your credit rating, does S&P take into account that you have sort of like a diversified portfolio? In other words, could it have an impact on selling more resi towards your credit rating? Or is that not an issue at all?
The credit rating is obviously a series of combining objectives between liquidity on the bond market, additional undrawn credit lines that we are providing future liquidity. It's also LTV. It's also ICR, which is excellent for us. It's also the quality of the portfolio we own, both resi, that plays a role, but also the primness of our office portfolio and the liquidity of the assets that shows that we have capacity, in fact, to manage those credit objectives.
So it's really the combination of all that. Resi with its stability and growth that you can see obviously plays a role, but it's in a general equilibrium that we try to keep. So everybody has in mind the 40% LTV, but it's more than that. It's also liquidity on the debt side, liquidity on the asset side and asset quality.
Okay. So -- but you don't per se, foresee an issue if you were to sell more resi, that S&P could look at you differently?
Not specifically if we do it well on all the other criteria.
The next question comes from Ana Escalante from Morgan Stanley.
I have a question regarding your target yields for acquisitions and marginal CapEx. I just wondered whether you are thinking about the headline rents or you are thinking about cash returns? Because as we have seen incentives in Paris are quite high, particularly in the peripheral areas but in Central Paris above 15%. So my question is how you look at these returns, right? And how do they look on a cash perspective right on headline rents?
When you look at our Signature acquisition, the incentives are pretty low and rents are probably 20% higher than what we expected. So I think we have shown through that acquisition that we are careful in our underwriting, and we can generate decent returns on what we buy.
But what's your guidance...
Return on CapEx are higher than double digit. So they are significantly above 10% return on CapEx.
But in terms of cash returns, both on acquisitions and CapEx, what are your hurdle rates, more or less?
I will rephrase what I said earlier. I just said that because one of your colleagues asked me the question, at between EUR 70, EUR 80 per share, the equivalent to 6.57% return, cash flow return. So that's a bit what we try to achieve.
The next question comes from Francesca Ferragina from ING.
Still another little question on the investment. There is a pretty sizable portfolio coming to the market in Brussels, the one related from Aedifica Cofinimmo. What's your view on the merger market? And do you have a knowledge of this portfolio?
You are referring from -- about the office portfolio of Cofinimmo.
Yes.
We are mainly a capital city -- large capital city operator. So what we like is diversified leasing base, strong and profound leasing market, which is probably not the pure definition of the Brussels market. So very happy to be in Paris, like you saw, that's the way for us to generate growth is, especially the diversity of the tenant base we have and the performance of our leasing market.
There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to Benat Ortega for any closing comments.
Thank you all for listening to the call, for your questions and see you during the next quarter. Bye-bye.
Gecina — 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to Gecina 2025 Full Year Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today, we have Benat Ortega, CEO; and Nicolas Dutreuil, Deputy CEO in charge of Finance as our presenters. I will now hand you over to your host, Benat Ortega, to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be with you to share our results for 2025 with a clear outperformance in terms of operational excellence and agile and proactive investment activity. I won't dive into the details just now, but the message behind these highlights is simple. In a long-term industry like real estate, we've been demonstrating our ability to grow steadily, constantly and meaningfully over time. As we may see through our results, Gecina is not a pure proxy for the Paris region office market. Our differentiation lies in the products we deliver designed for today's needs and built to anticipate tomorrow's. This is how we keep our portfolio, firmly positioned in a segment where true quality is scarce and demand remains solid. The situation regarding office attendance was stronger in Paris than other cities following COVID and current trends shows that the return to the office is even more real now.
Over the past year, many more corporates have taken firm positions well beyond the early movers from 2023 and 2024. We are now converging towards a standard of roughly 4 days a week in the office. This has a positive consequence on corporate decisions. The number of companies taking the same surface of more are now a vast majority, 2/3, while it used to be only 1/3 3 years ago. And when the objective is to attract and retain talent, the equation is simple, reduce committing time by being located in the central areas and on major transportation hubs and offer a workplace experience that generally feels better than home. With insights from more than 500 companies using our spaces every day, we design products that mirror how corporates truly operate. Large organizations want destination assets for their head office. Yet supply is far more limited than people think. Offices above 3,000 square meters represented only 15% of deliveries over the past decade within Paris City.
That's why we put such emphasis on delivering these large-scale projects in Paris and Neuilly on their design and adaptability also. Workforces evolve and our spaces have to evolve with them. We complement this with a full suite of services, some shared other privatized. And we bring real intensity to energy performance, building highly efficient assets and working closely with clients to ensure consumption reductions last over time. Smaller businesses often lack dedicated real estate teams internally. They want to stay focused on their core business, work in a space that feels like their own, especially protect confidentiality, better than shared offices in co-working buildings and deal with a single point of contact and a single invoice. We created a fully managed office, offer precisely to meet these needs. What sets us apart is that we own our assets, ensuring them the right quality and services on the long run.
Let's now turn to our 2025 performance in figures. Hundreds of leases offers negotiation, delivering nearly 120 leases doubling 2024 pace in square meters let. It gives us real visibility on our future cash flow with EUR 86 million in annual rents secured on firm terms of over 6 years. A positive factor also is that we've been securing 75,000 square meters of leases that were due to mature in '25, '26 or '27. Yourplace, our fully managed office offering, captures exactly how the market is changing on small and mid surfaces. We are achieving rents around 40% above market levels because we deliver a truly distinctive product. The market is clearly willing to pay more for better design, better services and more flexibility. And the momentum on the residential side is also strong.
Over 1,700 leases were signed, 3x what we did last year with an acceleration throughout the year, a clear signal that our diversified service-enhanced furnished housing offer meets a real and growing need. All this is driving solid rental growth, plus 3.8% like-for-like with 2.6 points from indexation and more than 1 point from pure business performance, either rental uplifts or better occupancy, particularly in CBD offices and our residential portfolio. And let me pause on the 2.6% growth on current basis, our organic growth more than offsets the impact of portfolio rotation where we have been very active to improve medium-term cash flows. On top of our leasing velocity, we have continuously activated all drivers to grow our cash flow. Revenues have grown consistently, more than EUR 100 million added since 2021. And we've kept costs tight. Lower property costs lifted rental margins and G&A is down 4% year-on-year.
Since 2021, our cost ratio has improved by 270 bps, and I'll come to financial cost management later. The results, EBITDA and recurring net income are up again this year with earnings and earnings per share rising by more than 4%. Since 2021, those metrics are up nearly 25%. On valuation, our portfolio is up 2.3% since year-end 2024 on the like-for-like basis. Here again, we see market bifurcation at play. In central areas, values are rising, supported by a reopening of the investment market with transaction volumes up 54% and a stronger rental dynamics in Paris and Neuilly. As outside Paris, values continue to adjust in line with softer investment activity, while rent adjustments help secure occupancy.
Let's turn to CSR. We are clearly early leaders in energy efficiency and carbon reduction, setting our first trajectory back in 2008. For us, this isn't a list of targets. It's a mindset. It's a conviction about how we run the business. Our strategy is simple, effective. First, before spending a euro of CapEx, our engineering teams and carbon managers work with clients to monitor and optimize on-site consumption. Then we switch to decarbonize energy whenever possible. And finally, we invest where it creates the most impact. This approach delivers. Since 2019, we've cut energy consumption by 33% and carbon emission by 63%. Our monitoring is fully data-driven. We track temperatures in real time and continuously fine-tune cooling and heating. And it matters. Every 1-degree adjustment delivers roughly 7% energy savings.
Thanks to this unique data set on more than 100 assets, we are currently deploying new AI initiatives in dozens of buildings to sustain our targets. One example at 144 Haussmann, a classic Haussmannian building typically harder to optimize than new generation assets, this approach cuts energy consumption by 25% in just 1 year. Now let's just take a step back and look at how active we've been in capital allocation, not just in 2025, but consistently over the past 5 years. We have been disciplined and deliberate in capital allocation. Over 5 years, nearly EUR 3 billion of assets have been disposed, first to support our 2022 and 2024 deleveraging. It secured a strong loan-to-value to reopen our investment capacities. We then recycled more capital into higher-yielding acquisition and a development pipeline delivering double-digit return on invested CapEx. On disposals, our timing has been highly tactical.
We've consistently crystallized value by reading market momentum early, creating competition and selling under the best conditions. Over 5 years, it's roughly again EUR 3 billion of disposals. We first benefited from a strong appetite for figuring the assets to divest properties outside Paris a few years ago. Later in the cycle, peak year compression on core assets enabled us to lock in full value on some mature office and retail assets. And then we accelerated residential disposals, capturing strong appetite demand for operated housing and living platforms with EUR 800 million of mature residential assets sold in 2025 alone, including the student housing portfolio. And we continue in that journey as I'm pleased to inform you that we have already secured EUR 200 million of additional disposals at end 2025, expected to close early 2026.
In '25, part of these proceeds was swiftly reinvested in acquisitions that were very appealing, both in terms of location and return on equity. This year, we deployed EUR 600 million that should deliver double-digit IRRs above our cost of capital even at current share price and more than 2/3 of these assets are already let or under term sheet. The rent secured or potential represents the equivalent of 10% of the group's office rental income in Paris and Neuilly. And none of this happens by accident, execution is everything. And we've proven that we are credible committed buyers, leveraging in-house expertise, deal enabling solutions such as past asset swaps and our capacity to pay cash, limiting competition to get appealing deals.
Over the years, we've been also very active in recycling disposal proceeds into complex redevelopment operations, nearly EUR 1.3 billion since 2021. This has allowed us to reposition 25% of our office portfolio and more than half of it over the past decade. It's been a major driver for both revenue growth and value creation. We now have 4 flagship projects underway to fund with EUR 430 million still to invest at double-digit yields on CapEx. Once fully let, these projects are expected to generate between EUR 80 million to EUR 90 million of annual rent. 2025 has also been a pivotal year in preparing the future of T1 Tower in La D�fense. Building on the tower's strong fundamentals, including high-quality, efficient floor place, high ceiling heights, our goal is to reposition T1 at the upper end of that market.
That means creating a true prime asset, enhancing services, redesigning signature spaces such as the main lobby and converting it into a multi-let tower to capture today's most dynamic demand, the mid-segment. The market at La D�fense is constructive. La D�fense has shown real dynamism in recent years. Demand for prime office remains strong. And with new supply expected to tighten once the current available space are absorbed by mid-'27, the project should benefit from favorable supply-demand conditions. On the financing side, the strength of our credit profile was once again confirmed by a best-in-class A- rating. It's been the eighth consecutive year. This translates directly into better financing conditions than others. Our July 2025 bond showed it clearly, oversubscribed 7x with a tight 85 bps spread.
Preparing the future is a core commitment for us and hedging is a critical part of it. A clear indicator of how strong our position is, is the mark-to-market of our fixed rate debt, simply put the gap between what we pay actually today and what we have to pay without hedging. At the end of 2025, as an equivalent, this figure stood at EUR 485 million. As an equivalent to net debt, this is more than 2x better than the average of our Continental Europe peers. It reflects both the volume of debt we hedge and the attractive levels at which it is hedged. We believe it's a significant competitive advantage against our peers and should give us visibility on future financial expenses and ensure a smoother, more manageable normalization. Let's turn now to the future. Based on the solid performance of 2025, we will propose to the General Shareholders Meeting a dividend of EUR 5.5 per share. This is exactly why we focus on rent growth and cost efficiency.
On the second -- for the second year in a row, we will propose to the next general assembly to increase the dividend. I'll come back to this in a moment. This reflects a strong 7% yield on the current share price with a sustainable 82% payout ratio. In 2026, we expect indexation to be very low, no surprise there. We also expect the market bifurcation to continue, supporting rental uplifts in central locations and requiring further rent adjustment elsewhere to retain tenants. Paris CBD and Paris City, La D�fense, Boulogne will maintain the same focus in every submarket. Rents from our 2025 deliveries and acquisition will also contribute to growth and we will maintain a strict cost discipline.
Consequently, we plan to continue to grow recurring net income to between EUR 6.7 and EUR 6.75 per share. Looking ahead to our next cycle of growth, I see 3 key moments. 2027, we will prepare for what comes next. The key building blocks are coming together as we work today to deliver and lease our 4 major pipeline projects. This will progressively offset the rent impact from ENGIE's departure from T1 Tower. In 2028, we will unlock growth. The pipeline will reach full speed. T1 will be progressively relet. Both indexation and occupancy are expected to normalize around that horizon. And in 2029, we accelerate. Across the entire period, future rental income provides clear visibility on medium-term growth in terms of recurring net income per share. And in this context, obviously, everything being equal, we expect the company's dividend to gradually increase over the coming years from 2026 to 2030.
And finally, this growth must be sustainable, and we are raising the bar for our 2030 targets. The bar is high, but we've learned a lot in the past years, and we want to challenge ourselves while staying realistic, pragmatic and contribute to the energy transition in the city where we operate. We'll go further on carbon reduction below 5.5 kilograms of CO2 per square meter with a plan to offset residual emissions on the operating portfolio. And obviously, we'll deliver net zero assets across the development pipeline. We also aim to reduce energy consumption and meet stricter performance targets on the new developments. And we want all of this to be independently certified with continuous improvement of our certification levels over time. Thank you for your attention, and now we are happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Veronique Meertens from Van Lanschot Kempen.
2. Question Answer
Three questions from my side, and I'll ask them one by one. Maybe can you elaborate a bit what's your view towards the breaks in the non-Paris office portfolio that you're seeing in '26 and '27? Are there already discussions ongoing? And what is the negative reversion that you now take into account for these sort of leases?
To be fair, no major breaks in '27, except the ENGIE that we have talked about a lot. And therefore, no significant reversion, negative reversion in those locations. We have -- like I said, we have been renewing a lot of leases from those years in '25. So nothing specific to say there.
Okay. And maybe one question on CapEx, maintenance CapEx. So I see on your Slide 46 that the maintenance CapEx has increased every year. And I think in '25, you're even reaching almost EUR 150 million, but still you mentioned that you expect a run rate of EUR 85 million to EUR 95 million. So I was wondering, it's obviously one of the key worries for investors for offices that maintenance CapEx is going up. What's your view is towards that and why you expect it to actually come down again?
Yes. We have a specific situation on the residential side where, in fact, we have some aging buildings that we need to -- especially on energy efficiency to reshape a bit the facade. So we have like since last year, but we still have probably 2 years or 3 years of refurbishing a bit those assets. So that's why it's somehow a bit temporary to catch up with those residential assets.
So in terms of offices, do you not foresee a trend that offices -- the maintenance CapEx is going up?
No. Specifically no, it's really a catch-up on the resi side.
Okay. That's clear. And then maybe my last question is, so despite execution on, I think, some interesting capital recycling transactions, your share price, I guess, reveals that shareholders might not fully agree with either the strategy or the capital allocation decisions. And I appreciate that, obviously, it's a topic that's been discussed a lot, a share buyback. And historically, you've always said that as long as you can find more interesting opportunities in the market from a yield perspective, you should go for that. But taking also now your dividend yield of 7% into account, when I do the numbers, you can still sell even your higher-yielding assets, make it leverage neutral and still do a very accretive share buyback. So can you maybe take us along your line of thinking of that capital allocation decisions and how you're going to view that towards the future?
I think -- like I said, I think capital allocation is trying to make a triangle between portfolio quality, future cash flow and return on equity. And therefore, we -- like I showed on this slide, we've been quite active on disposals. If we think there is no growth and the return on equity is lower than our cost of capital, we dispose. So we have been, I think, among the only one to dispose EUR 3 billion of assets over a short period of time. And the second is us to use those proceeds. And that's where we look always at the cost of capital. And if we find alternatives and opportunities in the markets where we are, where investment money is scarce, then if we get more than 10% IRRs unlevered, then we go for them. And like I said earlier, share buybacks are a tool to allocate capital. It's one of the tools for the -- in 2025, we have been very happy to find opportunities where we could generate a lot of value and at the same time, improving the average quality of our portfolio. So that's what we have done in 2025.
The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF.
So I would have 3 questions, if I may, so -- and I can ask one by one. My first question would be on your dividend policy, your new dividend policy. So what could be the reasonable assumption that we can take into account in terms of gradual growth and maybe in terms of payout ratio for the dividend for the next years?
In fact, 2 questions within one. The first one is payout Obviously, medium term, and I've been quite clear on that, we want to be in the range of 80% to 85% medium term. That's a way to sustain through our recurring cash flow, the dividend and the maintenance CapEx, which are supposed to decline over time. So that's one. And second, obviously, the growth will depend upon the speed of leasing both our pipeline and T1. So that's why we have been shy on the rhythm of growing the dividend, but it was to show that we are pretty confident in the medium term to lease those properties and that should drive the future dividend policy.
Maybe my second question, so in terms of capital and investment opportunities. So how do you think you are able still in 2026? And what is your appetite to find some new investment opportunities at least above your cost of equity or with the IRR very significant?
Listen, our team's investment -- we are very focused on the Parisian market. So we track and follow all transactions. For 100 transactions we look at, we strike one. So like you saw last year. So our duty is to look for those opportunities to create value. And obviously, it has to be accretive both in terms of earnings, but also in terms of capital. So that's what we do on a daily basis. That's our duty, and that's the business of anticipating what might come, it's not easy. But obviously, we are very dedicated to try to create value for our shareholders.
Okay. And maybe my last question maybe on artificial intelligence. So have you discussed about the impact that we can have potentially on your different tenants? And have you discussed with them on how they could change the strategy for the future offices?
Sure. It's a topic we discuss with our clients. I think we have said in 2 ways to look at it. First, we saw a significant tech demand in Paris. We are lucky to train a lot of excellent engineers. France is specifically very good at math. So we have seen most of the big tech taking more square meters than hiring people inside the city of Paris. And that's obviously companies which are looking for centrality. You saw that Mistral just took a big -- it was not in our building, but just took a big building in Paris, but we have seen also Google last year and most of the big tech, Datadog has just signed a big lease next to Madeleine. So we see quite a decent appetite from tech companies growing their footprint in Paris because of the pool of talent. And the second, obviously, we might see, but it will be probably gradual an optimization of some jobs. Clearly, if you look at the newspapers and that's obvious, the view for us is that it will concentrate the demand for the best because the ones that will sustain, in fact, their growth through the AI transformation will seek for centrality.
The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator from GS.
Three questions, if I may, maybe one by one. Can you highlight how you expect the occupancy to change going forward? You said you've done a lot of leasing already in 2025 on some of these outside areas. And if you can focus actually specifically also on office versus residential with spot numbers? And the second question, but related is what's happening with T1B in terms of leasing at this stage, please? And I've got one more after that.
Okay. In terms of occupancy, obviously, it fluctuates depending on who leaves and who comes. We see, like you saw quite an increase in occupancy in CBD, the whole Paris, by the way. We have progressive leasing in Boulogne. So it should go up and down, but we see we have signed already 2 leases during the first weeks of 2026. So progressively, we should see a gradual improvement in Boulogne, but it's a long journey. And on the residential side, I think the average occupancy this year was like 94% and we -- and because of the active leasing during H2, the spot vacancy in '25 is like 96.4%. So we should see an improvement in the average occupancy in '26 against '25 on the residential segment. Regarding T1, ENGIE is leaving in April. We will start renovation. We already have some leads because, in fact, if you try to find 20,000 square meters, good quality brand new, there is not so many offers in La D�fense. But obviously, it's a -- the tower will be delivered probably mid-'28. So we still have time. But yes, we still have -- we already start to have some leads on T1.
Sorry, just to clarify, you have already some leases signed?
No, leads. Early conversations.
Okay. Early conversations. Okay. Okay. And the spot occupancy in office, are you able to give us that? I think you've given a meter in resi, but not in office.
Spot occupancy a bit more than 94%, I think it's pretty flattish.
Okay. And the next question is really on EPS growth. And ultimately, I mean, obviously, you talk about IRR, some of the projects that you're investing have a longer lead time. Do you see acquisition opportunities like one that you did last year more immediately accretive? Or are you looking at your IRR on a long-term basis, i.e., I think one of the questions around investors has been on the growth path of EPS. Ultimately, how are you expecting to drive that going forward? And do you have a target?
We try to do both, which is being accretive and short term and medium term. So like I said, we are looking at IRRs, so the cost of capital and the contribution to our cash flow. And that's what drives our investment decisions. So like you saw what we did in '25. In fact, we have bought Solstice now named Signature, which had 1 year and a bit of renovation, so pretty short in terms of delivering rents potentially. And we bought Bloom, which was immediately accretive. So yes, we try to balance both to generate long-term and value creation, but also short-term accretion.
Okay. And do you see more opportunities like that in the market? Or are there more long-term redevelopment that you're looking at this stage?
We are looking at a lot of situations. I won't comment on it. So far, nothing specific.
The next question comes from St�phanie Dossmann from Jefferies.
I will have, yes, maybe 3 questions from my side. I will ask them one by one. To follow up on the acquisition opportunities, would you contemplate opportunities abroad, for instance? The London office market looks more attractive currently. So I was wondering a bit of what is your appetite of growing the platform abroad?
So far, not really. I think buying -- we are an operating company. So buying one asset would need to be the full team to generate, in fact, what we are capable to generate in Paris. We need the local knowledge. So we are not really looking at a single acquisition of growth.
And what about not single, I mean platform?
Well, I never like to comment on M&A. I think the best way to never do M&A is to comment M&A. Same on acquisition. Our duty is to monitor situation and to see if we can find an accretive deal for our shareholders. Nothing more to comment on it.
Fair enough. Second question is related to your guidance, and I was wondering what is included on top of your annualized rent roll of EUR 78 million in terms of either relettings, acquisitions and especially net financial expenses and including capitalized interest, how do you see those going forward?
We have not -- we never budget any acquisitions because it's the best way to burn the cash and not being financially savvy. So we don't budget any acquisitions in our budget nor this year, but neither the year before. And in terms of financial costs, as you might have seen, we are pretty well hedged for 2026 and capitalized interest go with the CapEx. So when we spend EUR 1 of CapEx, we capitalize the cost of debt attached to that CapEx. So it's pretty homogeneous against we did last year and the year before. There's no change there. It's really along the CapEx spending program.
All right. And what -- in other words, what is the difference between the low end and the high end of the range?
It's really a series of small assumptions, but mainly, in fact, if we can deliver, like I said, a better occupancy on the resi, some leases on the office side and ideally, an even better performance and a better speed of execution on the operated offices. You know that the operated offices are delivering significant uplifts in rents, but it depends upon tenants leaving our space before we can re-lease them. So most of them is small surface. So we get the notices 3 or 6 months in advance. So if we receive a bit more, then we will have better uplifts and therefore, a better cash flow next year. So -- but it's a lot of small moving pieces.
All right. And the last one, as you touched upon reversion. I was wondering why it's not declining, while the market rents are decreasing on average, let's say, something like minus 5% in the effective rents in the CBD currently. So why your reversion is still so sound, I would say?
I will do a self-promotion. I referred to it at the early stage of our presentation. Our duty as a company is to deliver distinctive products, which differentiates from the overall market. So that's why we have taken the view that we had basically in Paris 2 kind of clients that had different needs. One, which is for the large head office, they need efficient buildings with large floor plates. So that was typically the rationale for Mondo. That's typically the rationale for Signature, the former Solstice we bought in July, which is offering them efficient way to work together. Obviously, if you are large tenants, you don't want to be split in 10 floors if you can be in only floor. So delivering those large-scale programs is a way for us to address what the head office needs. And on the other side, we see a more need for flexibility, but keeping the premiumness.
So we have lawyers. We have some executive teams from large corporates, which are on the outskirts. We see new tech companies, but those guys don't have any real estate teams. So we deliver them, in fact, a product where they just come with their desk, with their laptop, and they can use the space while keeping confidentiality. So they are in their own space, but they don't have the hassle to manage all the real estate expertise, taking a maintenance contract and managing coffee and taking the cleaning contract and having to buy the logo at the entrance of the office and hiring the reception needs and so on. So we take care of all that so that they can dedicate the energy on their own business and not on real estate. And by addressing those 2, we create difference against the general market. And that's a bit the way we have been capable, in fact, to generate this. But it's a lot of work, but that's our DNA.
The next question comes from Neil Green from JPMorgan.
Just one question, please, and a follow-up, I think, to Florent's earlier on. On the dividend growth guidance from 2026 to 2030, are you underwriting a higher payout ratio as a driver of that, please? If so, to what? And is it back to 85%, please? Just interested on any assumption around the dividend payout ratio over that period, please?
It could be 1 year or 2 if we can't sustain an increase of cash flow. But that's why we gave a medium-term guidance, which is over the long run, in fact, those assets pipeline, T1 will be let, and we will be capable, in fact, to stay in our preferred range. Also once the CapEx on the residential side are behind us. So that's a bit why, in fact, we have been providing that vision.
The next question comes from Callum Marley from Kolytics.
Just 2 quick ones. First one, there seems to be quite a bit of office space coming online in Paris this year. And obviously, CBD vacancy continues to trend higher. Is it fair to assume your record high occupancy could come under pressure in 2026 and '27? And then secondly, how do you weigh up future development opportunities versus acquisitions when your current office development yields are 5.8%, but you're acquiring assets at 6.1%?
Those are 2 questions. I think on the first one, I will come back to what I said earlier, which is what we try to deliver to our clients products which are different. I referred to one thing, which was on the other stuff. Only 15% of the new deliveries in Paris have been above 3,000 square meters. So our major projects are significantly bigger with significantly more bigger floor plates and significantly more services, fitness, gym, food offer, meeting rooms, auditoriums. That's what we deliver to those people that they can't find on a small building, which is one like the other. And on the other segment, because we are an integrated company we have our own asset management team, our own design team, our own property management team, in fact, we can generate without a big pain, those operated offices that they can't really find on the market.
It's only 5% of the offer in Paris, while it's more than 20% of the take-up. So -- and that's because, in fact, we are an interesting company. And like you saw, we have been capable, in fact, to generate that offer that needs a lot of work for our teams while keeping the G&A down by 4%. And that's because we were already taking care about the maintenance of the building. So why shouldn't we take care about the aircon of the tenants. If we -- anyway, we have a cleaning contract for the whole building, for the lobby, for the lift, why shouldn't we be capable, in fact, to extend that contract into the private areas. So that's -- we've been doing both, in fact, try to optimize our cost structure, but at the same time, increase the quantity of services we deliver to our clients.
And that's the way we make difference. Regarding your question around acquisition development, I think we have a pretty visible development pipeline, which is underway. Those 4 projects plus T1 that will come next. So that's already a significant development pipeline. And that's why we looked at opportunities with Solstice or with Bloom that were a bit different with a different risk profile. And you're right, it was done in quite appealing conditions to generate a good IRR.
I will now just take one written question. What is the difference between the announced plus 2.3% increase in asset value on a like-for-like basis and the EUR 23 million negative fair value change recorded in the income statement?
Yes. Thank you for this technical question. I think it's technical items that can explain the difference between the 2. Some are one-off. For example, in '25, we had an increase in the stamp duties in most of the cities in France and specifically in Paris. So it has an impact on our valuation of more than EUR 60 million. So it explains partly the difference. Other items are a little bit more technical, that's IFRS 16. You know that we are accounting leases, which are IFRS 1, meaning that we are spreading the tenant incentives over the duration of the lease. And so the difference between the cash we are getting from the tenant and the amount we are accounting is going through this IFRS 16 adjustment. Depending when we are on the lease, it could be positive or negative. But for this year, it's a negative impact.
The next question comes from Michael Finn from Green Street.
Yes. I just wanted to ask, please, if you could confirm that you do not plan to add any more buildings to the pipeline. I believe it was on Page 11 of the press release yesterday that you plan to refuel the pipeline in 2029, but I just want to double check that, please.
Against the quantum we have currently, no, there is not pipeline projects which are similar to those which we are doing currently.
Okay. And one more, if I may. Just on capital more generally, I'm just curious, in general, should 2026 be viewed as quite similar to '25 and that you will sell some assets and you will redeploy it into offices? And maybe linked to a question earlier, I'm just curious, in your view, at what share price or implied yield does it make more sense to just buy back the shares? I assume you probably have some kind of view on that since you said that you're going to -- that you'll be looking at every option that you have.
Yes. If you do simple math, based on our dividend, it's a 7% return. Based on our cash flow, it's 8-point-something percent return. So pure cash to cash. Our weighted cost of capital is around 7-point something because our cost of debt is low, but even at a marginal cost of debt, you are between 6.5% and 7%. So if we can find decent and with the same quality or even better than what we own, obviously, all those deals are accretive in terms of return on capital and accretion. So that was the rationale for us, in fact, to go on those 2 deals that seems appealing for us, both in terms of accretion, one immediate and the other one a year later and in terms of return on capital. So we -- obviously, the share price increased our cost of capital, the way we look at it because it's pretty low.
But as long as we can find those deals that improve our portfolio, improve our cash flow medium term, improve our future, obviously, we will look at them. And if it flies, we go, and we will monitor it over the next year. I think we are somehow -- I'm quite happy with what we have done this year. Somehow in this quiet investment market, and the teams will not be happy that I say it, but it's somehow easier to buy at 6.5% net initial yield than to sell at 3%. And probably, we are not insisting enough about the quality of our investment team to have been capable to source like more than 10 buyers to buy almost EUR 1 billion around 3% cap rates. And I think it's a tribute to the teams and our dedication and our footprint where we are to have been capable, in fact, to secure EUR 1 billion below 3% or around 3%.
So that's why I said before talking about acquisition, you talked about acquisition. I talked about, first, the pleasure to have been capable to secure those disposals because that's the first step before being capable to make capital moves. And I think we have shown and probably way better than most of the industry that we are an agile divestor. We sold one luxury retail building at the peak of valuation of luxury companies. We sold secondary assets at the peak of SCPI fundraising. We've been disposing office assets in '23 below 3% cap rates. So we are pragmatic, but I think we have been probably and I'm looking around the best seller of assets. And I hope that we will be happy with the returns we generate on acquisition and development pipeline. You are, welcome. But again 3% is not easy.
The next question comes from Celine Soo-Huynh from Barclays.
Benat, I've got 3 questions, please. The first one is about capitalized interest. Can you confirm the policy that you have for them? What cost of debt you're using? Is it average? Is it marginal? And also by how much is meant to increase this year? What's inside the guidance? And then my second question will be about your firepower. What's your firepower without a credit downgrade? And last question on share buyback again, sorry. Do you actually have the approval to potentially do a share buyback? Or is that something that could be included in the next AGM? Because like you said, it's a tool to allocate capital.
Welcome. On capitalized interest, we have the same way to do it. The existing value of the asset is capitalized at LTV at the current average cost of debt and the CapEx are capitalized 100% at marginal cost of debt. So that's the way we capitalize interest. So that's why...
And can you confirm it hasn't changed or it's not supposed to change this year?
No, no. No, it hasn't changed. And that's why the more we spend CapEx, the more capitalized interest we have because if we have spent EUR 1 million in a building, then we capitalize 3%. But when we start construction, we only capitalize based on EUR 10 million or EUR 20 million in our books. On SBB, you asked a technical question, which is do we have the approval? Yes, I think we have since the several years, an approval from the general assembly to make a share buyback. So it's really a Board decision to execute one.
Okay. And your firepower?
And firepower, a polite way to do it is to say that if we want to keep our A- rating, we need to be medium term below 40%. So that in terms of LTV metric. But obviously, if we sell, we have more firepower. So it's not a fixed barrier.
Okay. I have roughly like EUR 500 million in mind without new selling. I just don't know if you can confirm that.
The LTV, excluding stamp duties, is slightly above 38%. So it's probably less than that. But again, it's more medium-term objectives that we have with the rating agency. So we can marginally go above and through either our cash flow or asset valuation, be back to that threshold. So it's not a strict rule year-by-year.
Okay. And sorry, last question, a bit open this one, I'm sorry. The market is not reacting super well to your last set of results. We know the market is not great at the moment. What can you tell the market to reassure it that things are going okay?
I think the -- it's 2 things. The first one is when you invest in a REIT, because of our distribution obligations, we are there first to generate the dividend. And that's why we conveyed confidence in the future to be capable and in fact, to sustainably pay and grow our dividend over time. It's second, I think we still have a lot to do, in fact, to have great future years, especially in leasing our pipeline in T1. Just have in mind that we have been having those questions in the last 5 or 10 years, each time we had large-scale redevelopments happening. It happened when we leased to BCG Live. It happened when we leased Publicis in Mondo. It happened when we had to release the full building in La D�fense Carr� Michelet in 2020 and '21, and all those operations have been fully let pretty quickly.
So I think the history of the company, the knowledge of the market, the product we build should give confidence in our capacity, in fact, to generate that growth that we all expect. And probably the last one is discipline. So we keep our balance sheet, you refer about LTV. We try to keep our balance sheet ready for the future, both in terms of LTV, also in terms of hedging long-term liquidity. I mean have in mind that we have EUR 4 billion of available credit line. So we have visibility on both liquidity and cost and same discipline on acquisitions and disposals. So we are there to, in fact, to sustainably grow our company, and we are very dedicated to it.
The next question comes from Paul Reuge from R&Co.
I mean, sorry, just a last question on your capital allocation. If I understood correctly, you say that until you have opportunities to invest or deploy capital in developing assets at a 10% IRR, you won't necessarily look at buying back shares, which basically, if you lever that, you go something between 10% and 15%. And regarding your cash flow yield today around 8%. I mean, I would suggest that you don't buy -- that you won't buy shares before another drop of something like 30% on your share price. I mean, is it something you -- can you give some color on that? Because you didn't really answer on the previous question on at which price you will buy back shares?
I think it's not the right question, if I may. Our duty is to offer the best return on capital. So it depends on how cash do we have and how can we deploy it with the best return on capital for our shareholders. So it's a combination between the cash generated and the way to allocate them. So it's a triangle. It's one, securing disposals. Like I said, we have been very active on it. Second, the share price and at the same time, the opportunities at the same time. So...
I mean, yes, you've been very active on disposal, and that's clearly, I mean, quite nice and effectively, you have a great track record on that. Frankly, at one point this money could be used to buy back shares. And I think the market is seeing that too. So that's why I'm trying to understand a bit.
So as long as it's the best capital allocation in terms of return on equity.
Okay. But so my hypothesis are correct regarding at which level you would be ready to buy back shares regarding the IRR?
Right. It has to be better than our acquisition potential and better than the disposal we make. Again, I can't opine on future acquisition. I don't have them in mind because they are not yet there. If there are none, we will look at the best way to allocate capital. I have not said no on share buybacks. I've just said it's a disciplined analysis each time quarter-by-quarter, deal-by-deal.
The next question comes from Marc Mozzi from BofA.
I just have a follow-up question on your capitalized interest. Can you give us a guidance of what we should expect for 2026 because it's a pretty hard number for an analyst to forecast. And actually, the question behind is, if we were to remove that growth in capitalized interest, what would have been the growth in EPS?
I don't have the figures now. We will provide you a bit more color on it outside the call if you want to allow it.
Yes. That would be great.
There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Thank you all for attending this meeting. Thank you for all your questions that were very insightful and see you soon. Bye-bye.
Gecina — Gecina, Nine Months 2025 Earnings Call, Oct 15, 2025
1. Management Discussion
Hello, and welcome to Gecina's business at September 30, 2025. [Operator Instructions] Today, we have Benat Ortega, CEO; and Nicolas Dutreuil, Deputy CEO in charge of Finance as our presenters.
I will now hand you over to your host, Benat Ortega to begin today's conference. Thank you.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call this morning to review our activity for the first 3 quarters of 2025. Some key highlights we'd like to emphasize. Regarding office leasing, even during this complex French political context, we secured 114,000 square meters year-to-date, already more than 1/3 of last year's total. Leasing activity spans on all our geographies generating EUR 60 million in annual rents.
Regarding residential leasing, nearly 1,300 leases have been signed year-to-date, confirming the relevance of our portfolio transformation towards service apartments to deliver efficient, collaborative and modern track. This clearly meets the growing demand from students, young professionals, families and corporates. We are proud to continue to capture strong rental uplift and outperform indexation, plus 9% across the office portfolio, including plus 28% in the extended CBD and an impressive 14% on Parisian residential portfolio.
Over the first 9 months, we recorded a plus 4% increase in rental income on recurrent basis. This growth was driven by a solid 3.7% like-for-like performance and supported by the positive contribution from our 2024 and 2025 deliveries like Mondo, 35 Capucines, Icône. We are already seeing the effect of indexation moderation as reflected in the third quarter figures. The performance is still very strong in the Paris/Neuilly portfolio, 78% of our portfolio across all drivers, rental uplift, occupancy gains and that's where we are very proactive and innovative to retain tenants, we find the right products, implement specific leasing initiatives.
A few other key highlights for the quarter. First, we tactically strengthened our financial structure with the successful issuance of a EUR 500 million 10-year green bond at very attractive conditions in late July. We achieved a record low 85 bps spread for a 10-year bond, thanks to our A- rating and excellent timing of execution, along with the early redemption of nearly EUR 530 million of 2027 and 2028 maturities, we now benefit from longer debt maturity, greater visibility and lower costs secured over the long term.
Second, we finalized the payment agreement with ENGIE, that was presented in July. Fundamentally, we will support our tenant's transition while actively monitoring the period to secure today's rental income until June 2027, the nominal end of the lease and minimize vacancy during the repositioning. So that, T1 Tower should be available for leasing after renovation during H1 2028, only 7 months after ENGIE lease expiry.
Lastly, we are proud to have maintained our 5-star rating and now rank first in our peer group in the GRESB Index, confirming our position as a European leader in future of real estate. And as you can see, we continue to execute our strategy with productivity, discipline and consistency. We can confirm our guidance with a net recurring income expected between EUR 6.65 to EUR 6.70 per share.
And thank you for your attention, and we are very happy to answer your question now.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Valerie Jacob from Bernstein.
2. Question Answer
I just had a question on your occupancy in -- outside of Paris. I just wanted to understand what you expect going forward? Do you think it's going to continue to improve? Or shall we expect more departure? That's my question.
Thank you, Valerie, for your question. Listen, like we were quite open on that front, we have seen a series of departures, especially in Boulogne, basically 20 years after delivery of those assets. We have already re-leased probably 2/3 of what was vacated in the last 2 years, and we are still on leasing on that. So obviously, we can't comment this before signing them, but we are clearly on it. And elsewhere, like I said, big chunk will be a T1 Tower, but that will be more for '27/'28. So, it should fluctuate. But medium term, we are quite confident to cope with the situation.
Okay. Sorry. But so you're relating the currently vacant space, but you're not expecting any more meaningful departure within the next 2 years, in Boulogne?
No, those are the biggest ones. Obviously, we have a wide portfolio, so we're going to have departures, but I think those two are the most critical ones.
Okay. And I've just got a second question on the ENGIE Tower in La Defense. In terms of the rent, that you will be targeting, how is it compared to the current trends that ENGIE is paying, because I think it is quite high?
Yes. We -- obviously, we are still defining in fact, both the product and the targets. We will have a negative downlift compared to the existing lease. Space rent for prime towers in La Defense are pretty sticky. So, obviously, ENGIE is paying a high rent after a year of indexation, but we don't see a huge drop, but obviously, a double-digit decrease, yes.
The next question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert of ODDO BHF.
Hi Benat. Hi, Nicolas. I would have two questions. The first question. So, we've seen on your leasing activities that has been quite -- you have been quite active in leasing for the first 9 months of the year. At the same time, so today, in France, we have some political instability, if we can say like that. So, could you maybe tell us, say, a word on how it could impact today your interactions with your tenants? And maybe I will ask after that my second question.
Yes, listen, obviously, like I said, the context is complex to read. It might delay a bit decision-making processes on the corporate side. But as you saw, in fact, we have been capable to sign a lot of leases during those 9 months. I think, if you think on the client side, real estate decision or long-term decision, they commit for 6, 9, 10 years, most of the time and at the same time, they have corporate strategies regarding return to the office, optimization sometimes of their footprint, changing their organization, AI, digital and so on and so.
So, I think they are still delivering their strategy and their related strategy in line with their global strategy. So, at some point, it might delay some time but in the end, they commit on those new services. So, yes, it's more complex. It will be easier to have a more stable situation. But so far, having prime, efficient, centrally located buildings has played a role to sustain our activity.
Okay. I guess, maybe my second question, so would be on the investment side. So, in that context, what -- how do you see this activity on the investment side? And what is your appetite? And maybe other consequence of that, how do you anticipate the evolution of the valuation of assets in Paris for offices?
On the valuation, it's too early to say. I think, we'll have the first right by valuers in some weeks from now. So, I will not opine on future valuation. What we see on the market is clearly a strong appetite for prime Paris/Neuilly assets. You saw Blackstone confirming the acquisition on prime Paris Trocadero, and we have seen a series of buildings well located and quite well priced. So, the market is progressively regaining liquidity, but it's not as fluid as 5 years ago. And in that context, obviously, we as an operator in that market, we try to be agile to taking profits out of that situation.
The next question comes from Amal Aboulkhouatem from Degroof Petercam.
Perhaps just to follow-up on Florent's question on the letting market. So, I understand the activity remained, let's say, decent given the current context in France. But do you see more discussion on the level of rent or the level of incentives that you have to give to sustain the level of activity?
Thank you for your question. No, we don't see a major shift in negotiation, both on what you saw on our uplift numbers for the first 3 quarters, but also what we see on the market. So, obviously, there is a premium for prime and efficient and centrally-located buildings. So those, even on the competition, we have seen record high transactions in Paris CBD and in the rest of Paris, large head office like EssilorLuxottica, moving its head office from the Eastern Paris region into downtown Paris. We have seen JPMorgan. So, a series of these pretty high and low incentives. And obviously, on the rest of the portfolio, when vacancy is pretty high, economic rents are still facing challenges. So, I would say the trend is a bit the same, while a lower activity.
Okay. So, I can understand that the situation is even more difficult out of CBD and centrally located areas.
I would say it's quite variable from a location to another. Typically, what we saw in La Defense was pretty active leasing in La Defense and Boulogne. So, the market is pretty free there, even if rents are not increasing, but we -- there is a take-up and strong demand, maybe a bit better than like 2 or 3 years ago. AXA just took -- AXA, BNP just took a big portion of the lease in La Defense. So, the market is quite fragmented, I think. Some locations are still facing high difficulties. And some others when they are well located on top of transportation are still performing okay. I think, this is where looking at the averages might not be the most efficient way to understand the situation. I think, it's quite variable from a location to another. So overall, the market is clearly decelerating, but in some locations, it's accelerating.
Okay. Okay. Okay. If I may just have...
[indiscernible] Yes.
Okay. On the ENGIE deal that we -- you have, just to make sure I understand correctly. So now contractually, they are committed to pay the rent until June 2027, but they could vacate the building a bit earlier to allow you to start the renovation and modernization work a bit earlier. How would that impact the level of, let's say, rent and cash you are expecting? Would that be half a year you could sacrifice to get the, let's say, an early delivery of the project? How do you see it happening?
Obviously, it's a confidential agreement. So, I will just give the principles of them. We have, through that deal, secure the rent until the end of the current lease. So, there is no rental income change on our side through that transaction. On -- they will vacate the building earlier, so we'll be able to start the renovation work earlier. It depends on when their employees are leaving definitively the building. So, that's why, we have been saying that it will depend when the last employees are leaving the Tower.
And on the ENGIE side, obviously, having the tower under works, we will save a significant amount of service charges because the assets will not be under operations. And that's what has been the driver on their side to make that deal. So, on our side, we secured the rents, and we anticipate works. And on their side, they do savings on the operations from the day their employees are leaving and the end of lease. That's basically the principles of the deal.
The next question comes from Stephanie Dossmann from Jefferies.
Just to clarify on the T1 Tower. If I'm correct, there are sub-letters of 20% of the space. So, I was wondering about the reposition work you will do on the Tower? Are you able to split the works? How does it work, I mean, in fact? And what is currently your discussions with the company subletting the 20% of the space? Will they stay? Will they leave? How does it work, please?
So, I will not comment on the conversation we have currently on the subletting. But the principle, in fact, ENGIE is leasing two buildings, T1 that we have talked a lot and B buildings, but they don't occupy the B buildings. It's a sublet. So, the deal we've made was on T1, which is where ENGIE employees are, and then they leave and we will restructure. On the B building, which is an independent building next to T1, we are obviously discussing with the existing subletting to see if they want to stay or not and on the whole building or on a portion of it. So, that's what we are positively engaging with the subletting.
Okay. My second question will be relating -- yes, can you hear me?
Yes, sure.
Okay. My second question will be related to the rent level, I would say, oin the market. So currently, how do you see the market evolving in the CBD. We have seen market data showing increasing vacancy in the CBD? So, how do you see the market level, I would say, for the rent evolving going forward? Do you see toppish or not? And maybe on Boulogne, what would be the reversion on your portfolio currently?
On rent levels in the CBD, I've been -- since I came at Gecina, I'm quite positively surprised quarter-after-quarter on the rent. And obviously, typically, the acquisition we made on Solstys, in our name signature, we have not bet on future increase of ERVs on that zone. But what we see on the ground is that for the prime, most efficient, better-located buildings, rents have been increased during these first 3 quarters of 2025. So, the last deal by JPMorgan and Datadog on two prime assets have been north of EUR 1,200, so probably EUR 1,250, EUR 1,300. So, that's for the best assets. There is still scarcity and there is still increase in ERVs.
And on the rest, I think we have seen and we have been looking at the averages. We have more than 50% of the leases that have been signed during 2025, which are north of EUR 1,000 per square meter. So, the whole market on top of super prime, the average of CBD has increased also in terms of market trends during 2025. There is an increase in vacancy, obviously, but still decent takeup. So, we will monitor the situation during the next month. But it doesn't look to be -- somehow as negative as what I have shown when reading our some reports.
And on Boulogne, please?
And in Boulogne, like I said, a good portion of the buildings have been vacated in the last 2 years, and we have re-leased, let's say, 2/3 of our current market conditions. So, I would say one, there is no specific reversionary potential or downlift because most of the leases are pretty recent. And on the rest, but then we need to lease them and they will be let at market conditions. So, no specific disclosure on reversion in Boulogne basically, because most of the current leases are at current market conditions.
The next question comes from Thierry Cherel from Natixis CIB.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes.
I wonder if you think about diversifying your portfolio exposure out of the office and maybe out also of the residential.
Not specifically. I think, if you think about the REIT, I think we need to be fully expert of what we do. I think the -- all the conversation we had shows that you need to have a high professionalism, understanding perfectly the markets where we are, and that's what we try to do on our two businesses. And second, I think we -- like we saw on the Solstys acquisition on our development pipeline, we still have room -- strategic room to grow and improve our company in the two asset classes where we are and the locations where we are. So, for the time being, no specific willingness to do something that will less master than what we do today.
And my second question is, do you intend to increase your development pipeline going forward?
Not specifically. We -- as you saw, we already launched like four big projects on top of T1 Tower that will come. So, I think, we are pretty loaded there. On the existing portfolio, we don't see a major refer to come in the next 2 or 3 years on top of what we have launched. And then, it will depend on our investment activity. So, if -- we are always monitoring the market to buy assets on which we can create value and create alpha, but specifically on the current portfolio, not much.
Have you bid on Trocadero assets?
No. Like you saw, it was the Blackstone buying it.
Yes. Okay. And maybe last point. Looking at the negative net absorption on the Paris office, even inner Paris office market. I wonder when the bottom will be reached? What's your perspective about that?
I think, we are pretty close to the lowest level of take-up historically on the whole Paris region, by the way. I think, probably we are at the bottom of that leasing market. We are interacting a lot with leasing agents. So, yes, I think we are close to the bottom. But as I said, it very depends on location. The market is free in a series of location and more quiet on some others. So, if you escalate a bit on the understanding of the market, what has decreased a lot in the global take-up of the Paris region is last transaction on the outskirts. And probably we'll have maybe 50 transactions above 5,000 square meters on the whole market, very concentrated on Paris and La Defense.
And probably, that's a low point. So, it should increase again following the return to the office announcement by the large corporates. And the fact that we will have lease expiries from '15, '17, '18 that has been quite active leasing years in the past, and will probably lead to some more moves from those large corporates on the outcomes. But -- so, yes, I think we are pretty close to the low point.
Okay. So, and I could conclude that it's also your point of view about the optimization of office footprint from large corporates.
Yes. We are following one data, which is when you divide the take-up, how many companies are increasing footprint or flatting footprint or declining footprint. Two or three years ago, the majority of tenants were decreasing footprint when signing a new lease. Now we have companies declining footprint, it's probably 15% to 20% still. And that's sometimes because they have less employees. Most of them are flat and 30% are increasing footprint. So, if there is one inflection point in the market, is the fact that we are -- the decreasing face more behind us than in front of us, based on the recent data from Walker.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Jonathan Kownator of Goldman Sachs.
Just one more question on new supply, please. Can you help us understand if there's still some new supply coming through and whether there is a new supply that is competing with your product in the CBD or you don't think that supply is actually competing? And how do you think that that's going to be absorbed? And when do you see new supply tailing off?
Thank you, Jonathan. On new supply, I think we -- like I commented previously, we have, let's say, two main leasing strategies on the CBD, one which is for small services being at the highest point of the quality by giving operated offices. So, fully furnished, fully equipped, fully serviced offices. And on that, performances are excellent because you don't see so much qualitative offer facing our offer. So, the average small surface quality in the CBD is pretty poor. So, that's why we are reaching pretty high level of services and quick relocations and re-leasings.
On the large services, most of the portfolio have been secured over the last 2 or 3 years, like the Mondo, the Icône, that we have done also renewals recently. So, our next challenge is signature of Solstys acquisition. And on that, we don't see much competition with large corporate service and efficient building. So, not so much competition either on that front. So, most of the competition in small buildings, let's say, average quality, that will be less, obviously, but not perfectly competing with what we have. At least, that's a bit our intention and our play on that one.
So, okay. So, if I understand correctly, the new supply in Paris is mostly in small building. That's what you're saying is mostly refurb of small buildings. Is that, what I understand?
Yes, not 25,000, 30,000 square meter building that we have with Signature, yes. You're going to find some, but take-up is pretty wide in Paris and Paris CBD. But yes, we don't see so many buildings in capacity with competing with Signature. Signature being the new name of Solstys after reform.
The next question comes from Mary Pollock from CreditSights.
Good morning. I have, I guess, a somewhat technical question on valuations. How will the move in French government bond yields impact valuations? How should we think about that filtering through for year-end?
Well, it's both technical and psychological. I think, the French bond is now ranging between 3.3% to 3.5%, which is pretty in line with our current bond level. So here, clearly, through Gecina, you can see a decorrelation between prime real estate and the French sovereign bond. So, that's why I was talking about general psychology.
On the -- and the question is around risk premium on top of French sovereign bond or 10-year swaps. So, that will be a technical discussion with the operators. How do we factor is the fact that we have a gap between sovereign bonds and 10-year swaps. So, that will be a question for the next quarters on regarding the risk premium on which rates.
Okay. So that's a decision that will be taken by the valuers?
Obviously.
Valuers, of course, are considering what they are seeing on the market. And what Benat said earlier on the fact that clearly, we can contemplate a couple of transactions. So, there are data points, at least inside Paris, in CBD market, where you have a couple of investors, could be a local or international investors, which are giving a good hint of where should valuer see cap rates at year-end.
The next question comes from Sheetal Jaimalani from Deutsche Bank.
Just one question from my end. Just wondering about the pre-lets' status of the new developments? And when can we hear any news on that?
Thank you for your questions. So far, nothing to announce. Otherwise, we would have included that into the press release. But we are actively working on it. We have active discussions on those buildings. But so far, nothing signed yet.
The next question comes from Céline Soo from Barclays.
I just want a clarification on the EUR 140 million CapEx that you're planning on Q1. Are you going to treat this as maintenance or investment yielding CapEx? And a sub-question to that. If that's maintenance CapEx, of course, that's going to decrease your cash. And we understand your EPS will be quite flattish next year. So, I was wondering if that makes you want to change your dividend policy going forward to base it more on an AFFO basis rather like some of your peers rather than FFO?
Thank you for your questions. So, decision is not made there. But anyway, it's CapEx, so it's capitalized. So, the accounting treatment will be the same. I think, on what we are intending to do on T1 is to have, let's say, a Tower ready for multi-tenant. So, it will be a transformation of the Tower. So that, in fact, we don't have in the future, ideally to face those huge vacancy from a day to another. So clearly, we want to improve the Tower services, but also creating different lobbies, having a fully prepared Tower for multi-tenant, so that it can last longer and have a stickier cash flow than what we have today. So clearly, the Tower will be improved significantly.
Regarding dividend policy, we have a complete business model where I think our dividend coverage is pretty good now. And we will be capable, in fact, to follow on that track. We have been conservative, not raising our dividend in the last years, while cash flow was increasing almost by EUR 100 million. That was in the view also to be capable to sustain it. So, no specific change in our policy.
Sorry, can I rephrase my first question to make it simple, key one. Are you planning to make any returns on the EUR 140 million CapEx?
Yes, it depends the way you look at returns. The Tower is empty by mid-'27. Can we re-lease as is? Yes, probably. And we look at two options. One, re-leasing as is probably with a lower ERV and trying to be more prime, more in line with the market and re-lease it faster and with a higher rent per square meter compared to if we don't do anything. So, if you look at those two options, obviously, there is a return. Otherwise, we will never do it.
[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So, I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Thank you all for listening today. Thank you for your questions, very insightful and see you soon. Bye-bye.
Financial data from Gecina
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 734 734 |
3%
3%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 41 41 |
25%
25%
6%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 693 693 |
6%
6%
94%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 74 74 |
3%
3%
10%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 616 616 |
6%
6%
84%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 9.71 9.71 |
16%
16%
1%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 606 606 |
6%
6%
83%
|
|
| Net Profit | 162 162 |
68%
68%
22%
|
|
In millions EUR.
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Company Profile
Gecina SA is a real estate investment trust, which owns, manages, and develops property holdings. It focuses on the acquisition of land, construction of buildings, financing of the acquisition and construction operations, and sale of real estate rights or properties. The firm operates through the following segments: Commercial, Residential, Student Residences, and Other Sectors. The Other Sectors segment includes financial leasing, real estate trading and the operation of hotel companies. The company was founded on January 14, 1959 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | France |
| CEO | Mr. Ortega |
| Employees | 442 |
| Founded | 1959 |
| Website | www.gecina.fr |


