Howmet Aerospace Inc Stock

Good day, and welcome to the Q3 2026 Howmet Aerospace Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, Paul.

Thank you, Danish. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings. In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion.

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Howmet's Q3 earnings call. Let's start with the highlights on Slide 4. Howmet performance in Q3 was solid in all dimensions. Revenues at $2.7 billion were up 29% year-over-year and up 25% through organic growth. EBITDA was $879 million and was up 43% with a margin rate of 32.5%. Margins were up 40 basis points from the second quarter and year-over incrementals were 43% after the dampening effect of the CAM acquisition.

Free cash flow in the quarter was $562 million after capital expenditure of $147 million which was a quarterly record. A strong cash flow supported by share buybacks of $500 million. And in addition, gross debt was reduced by $60 million in the quarter and we ended with approximately 1.3x net debt to EBITDA.

We have repurchased $1.1 billion of shares to date, of which is $400 million more than the total repurchases in 2025. I would like to note that our diluted share count fell to just below 400 million outstanding shares, at 399.5 million at the end of Q3. Over the last 8 years, the share count has been reduced by in excess of 100 million shares. Earnings per share were $1.46, a 54% increase year-over-year, and this sets us up well to achieve the remainder of our 2026 objectives.

Good progress was made on several fronts with new business being booked in line with our outlook expectations in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Industrial Gas Turbines. Of particular note in the quarter was the 45% Gas Turbine revenue growth, which demonstrates both the extraordinary addition to output and even more importantly, the increased market share. Further commentary will be provided during the outlook section of the call.

I'll now turn the call over to Patrick, who will provide further commentary on end market growth and segment performance.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Please move to Slide 5. Howmet delivered another strong quarter with all end markets growing. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Total revenue was up 29% in the third quarter. Excluding the net impact of the 3 transactions we completed this year, revenue was up 25% year-over-year an acceleration from the 21% organic growth rate in the second quarter and 19% in the first quarter.

Commercial Aerospace growth was very healthy at 32%, and with organic growth of 27%, driven by demand for both OE and spares. Commercial Aerospace spares demand continues to increase significantly driven by both legacy and next-generation engine programs. Defense Aerospace growth was 10% with organic growth of 3% driven by spares demand, particularly on legacy [indiscernible] platforms. Commercial Transport revenue was up 28%, reflecting both volume increases as the North America market recovery continued and the pass-through of higher aluminum costs. Gas Turbine growth was very strong at 45% and as end market demand remains robust. Growth in Other markets of 48% was largely driven by the Brunner Fastener acquisition completed in February.

Spares growth remained robust across Howmet markets. Total spares revenue was up 30% to approximately $570 million and represented approximately 21% of total revenue in the quarter. In summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, Gas Turbines and Commercial Transportation.

Moving to Slide 6, starting with the P&L. Third quarter revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 29% and 25% organically, the strongest quarterly growth rate on record for Howmet. EBITDA continued to outpace revenue growth of 43%, EBITDA margin increased 310 basis points to 32.5%. The incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was solid at 43% year-over-year. Earnings per share were $1.46, up 54% compared to Q3 2025.

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet remains a source of strength for Howmet. The quarter end cash balance was $508 million, with quarterly free cash flow of $562 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA improved to 1.3x. During the quarter, we paid down $60 million of commercial paper. Liquidity remains strong with an undrawn $1 billion revolver complemented by a $1 billion commercial paper program with $390 million outstanding from the $450 million that was drawn to support the CAM acquisition.

Turning to capital deployment, CapEx was $147 million. The majority of our capital spend continues to be in the Engine Products segment as we continue to invest for growth in both Aerospace and Gas Turbines markets. Investments are backed by long-term customer contracts. In the quarter, we repurchased $500 million of common stock at an average price of $265 per share. This brings year-to-date repurchases to $1.1 billion at an average price of $251 per share. We continue to be confident in strong future free cash flow. We increased the quarterly stock dividend in Q3 by 17% from $0.12 per share to $0.14 per share.

Now let's move to Slide 7 to cover the segment results for the third quarter. The engine products team delivered exceptional performance again across revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Revenue grew 33% to $1.45 billion. Commercial Aerospace was up 39% and Gas Turbines was up 44%. Demand continues to be strong across both original equipment and spares. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 57% to $567 million. EBITDA margin increased 580 basis points to 39.1% while absorbing approximately 520 net new employees in the quarter, positioning us well for future growth.

Please move to Slide 8. Fastening Systems delivered another solid quarter. Revenue increased 41% to $630 million, including the impact from the CAM and Brunner acquisitions. Commercial Aerospace was up 42% and Defense Aerospace was up 56%. Commercial Transportation was up 6% year-over-year. Excluding the impact from acquisitions, total Fastening's growth was up 10%. EBITDA increased 34% to $185 million. EBITDA margin declined 140 basis points year-over-year and 70 points sequentially, reflecting the increased revenues from CAM, which we acquired in April.

Moving to Slide 9. The Engineered Structures team continues to drive improvement in the business. Revenue declined 4% to $295 million due to the divestiture of the Savannah disc forging facility. Excluding the impact of Savannah, revenue growth was 8%. We continue to focus on higher margin and stronger return opportunities in the business. Sequentially, revenue was up 10% from the second quarter, driven by increased Commercial Aerospace OE demand. EBITDA increased 9% year-over-year despite the revenue decline and EBITDA margin expanded 290 basis points to 23.7% as we continue to focus and optimize the Structures segment to maximize profitability.

Please turn to Slide 10. Forged Wheels delivered another solid quarter. Revenue was up 32%, driven by higher volumes in addition to increased aluminum cost pass-through. Volumes also increased sequentially from Q2 as the North American market recovery continued. EBITDA was $86 million, an 18% increase year-over-year. EBITDA margin declined year-over-year and sequentially, reflecting the significant dilutive effect of sharply higher aluminum cost pass-through. We continue to outperform the market driven by our premium products.

Now let me turn the call back to John.

Thanks, Patrick, and let's move to Slide 11 and turn the calls of the outlook. Firstly, of course, we provided guidance for Q4. Our glide path continues towards the conclusion of another good year for Howmet. The specific numbers will be commented upon in a few moments, plus our initial [indiscernible] chart of 2027. Regarding Commercial Aerospace, the flight schedules and load factors held up well during the summer months both for domestic and international travel. Naturally, the Middle East was lower given the Iran conflict and its fallout. Oil prices, notably jet fuel and diesel, are especially high and with the resultant effect on ticket prices, overall travel will potentially impact some schedules as we go through the winter into 2027.

Having said that, we do not expect there to be any impact on our spares deliveries during this period and indeed throughout 2027. In fact, we expect solid demand given the timeline ring issues experienced by the new generation of narrowbody engines and also the backlog of aircraft engines, which are scheduled for shop visits and the ongoing underbuild of aircraft compared to plans. And also, this means that spares demand will continue to be very robust.

The current extraordinary aircraft OE order backlog will ensure that new aircraft production continues and increases throughout 2027 and beyond. We expect volume increases for the 737, the A320, the 787 and the A350 to be healthy, and they help to underpin our Commercial Aerospace business outlook. Defense sales continue to be strong with further increases likely in legacy aircraft build and spares. Notably, F-35 spares continues to be healthy with an expanding fleet of aircraft. We have not yet assumed in our forward look, the replenishment of inventories, which have been depleted as a result of the Iran conflict.

The most important growth factor as a percent of sales is up to one sector of defense sales is that of missile parts. We are being asked to increase production significantly, albeit final agreements have yet to be concluded. We believe that how much technological and operational leadership position in the industry, coupled with our ability to develop the most sophisticated turbine blades at scale in both Commercial and the Defense Aerospace sectors will ensure that Howmet's market position and strong financial performance will continue well into the middle of the next decade and beyond.

Industrial Gas Turbines growth and the growth as we continue to look forward to with customers will strengthen, and we look forward to further increase these volumes into the future beyond the previous expectations. This impact is likely to be felt in the outer years beyond 2028 since the new capacity currently being installed is totally sold out. More recently, we've seen major gas turbine customers state that 2031 is now also sold out. And indeed, 2032, we're likely to sold out in the next 1 or 2 quarters. This growing level of demand continues into the 2030s and combined with the need for significant increases in future gas turbine spares provides us with even greater confidence. Further capacity is likely to be considered for addition, albeit within the framework of maintaining a high level of free cash flow conversion.

Most importantly, the whole of the IGT growth serving broad-based demand across the industrial, oil and gas as well as data centers will be completed without adding any depth to the company. Indeed, this year, we'll have completed 2 acquisitions for approximately $2 billion, spent $0.5 billion on CapEx and bought back shares in excess of $1 billion. And yes, our leverage level at the end of 2026 is expected to be similar to the exit level of 2025.

The Commercial Transportation sector continues to experience North American market recovery. Production volumes continue to climb after the Q1 low point with truck OEM build slots largely fall in the second half and now into the first part of 2027. The more gradual phase-in of the 2027 NOx emissions regulations should also be supportive of the industry volumes going into 2027.

While I will comment on specific Q4 numbers in a moment, the new guide has been raised from the prior outlook. But perhaps the most important view is the initial growth outlook for 2027 which is seen at 12% plus or minus 0.5%, resulting in revenues of approximately $11.5 billion. Further refinement and underlying aircraft volume build assumptions will be provided during our February 2027 earnings call. Finally, the share buyback authorization has also been addressed by the Board and has been increased by a further $5 billion.

Now moving to specific numbers for Q4. We envisage revenues to be approximately $2.75 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA of $900 million, plus or minus $5 million. Earnings per share at $1.50, plus or minus $0.01. For the full year, the guidance increased again across the board to revenues of $10.3 billion, plus or so minus $10 million. EBITDA $3.33 billion, plus or minus $5 billion; and earnings per share of $5.50, plus or minus $0.01. And free cash flow has been increased to $2 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

In terms of the full year commentary, we're pleased with our sales growth of 25%, including a 22% organic growth so far this year and an earnings per share growth of over 45%. We note that free cash flow of around $2 billion represents a very healthy cash flow to revenue and the margin -- a cash margin of over 19%, which is at a very high level.

We can now move to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

I guess blades and veins remain a critical bottleneck in aerospace supply chain, which seems to be driving OEMs to take greater control of their manufacturing capabilities. We saw this with Pratt when they invested in the Asheville facility, NG announced its acquisition of CPP. John, you've previously highlighted the difficulty of replicating how much technology, your manufacturing yields and scale, but how do you view these vertical integration initiatives reshaping the competitive dynamics in this aerospace blades and veins market? And what implications could they have for how its future market share? And how do you think about pricing power?

I think the first comment I would like to make is that we have excellent relationships with all of our engine customers. So namely GE, Safran, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce to name just a few. Our investments in technology, quality and ability to invest in capacity have been fundamental to the increase in volume of modern jet engines and indeed support of the airline fleets worldwide. This capability has taken years, if not decades to achieve. And right now, we're actually poised to further increase capacity for GE, which will take 2 years to install and then there will be a multiyear runway after that.

In fact, regarding this particular capacity for GE, I was reviewing yesterday for one of our sites and it is a significant investment. We are also in dialogue with what's been called the Blue First Blade and its future industrialization in the 2030s. I know that this audience though likes to have quantification and numbers rather than just words. And of course, it's difficult to give dollar values since I also recognize that competitors are listening. So I thought I tried to provide some views on scale and quantification of the central thrust of your question, which was the GE acquisition of CPP.

And I think -- I was thinking about sort of how do we move into the 2030s and beyond, especially given the investments I've talked about in commercial aerospace, but also, you've seen us make a lot of investments in this year and already talked to the planned increase in investment in 2027 and beyond in the IGT space. And so I thought maybe I can give some quantification of this by just think about the fleet of turbines that we are enabling to be built from like 2025 through 2030 and the large increase in the fleet of turbines, which will produce for us spares demand into the 2030s.

And when we have done our modeling, we think about that increase in spares demand, they just pick, let's say, one year, I just picked it around an like 2031 and what our expectations are in our planning assumptions is that we see the sales value increase in spares revenues from IGT in that one year. That would exceed the total value of the sales of the first blade of our largest narrow-body [indiscernible] blade to any of our customers.

So -- and if you think about it, we don't expect to lose any of that business anyway, but just to quite provide [indiscernible] context, should we lose a first blade to a narrow-body engine is that that would be more than compensated by just one thing, which would be the spares increases in our IGT segment in one year. And then, of course, we're expecting similar values of increases in 2032, 2033, 2034 and beyond, given the continued build-out that we envisage.

So let me just turn back from a quantification to back to some more, I'll say, stores around CPP and -- and when we consider their capabilities, we seem to be probably the higher order in structural castings and that's probably augmented recently by the acquisition of Precicast from Switzerland that they closed in the last month or so. And when I think about the industry, we've heard a lot about forgings and castings, which seems to be the word that people reach for immediately. And in fact, structural castings have probably been the main pain point of the industry that commercial aerospace has suffered in recent years. And therefore, I consider the capabilities that maybe CPP has in structural castings to be possibly of an more important relevance.

And when I think about it, even though Howmet has been increasing our market share, and we're actually currently considering a further buildout of another manufacturing plant in this area. Maybe it will affect the scale of the plant that we're considering and indeed, where we place that investment. But -- so we expect that we'll continue to grow even in this segment with [indiscernible] strength that CPP may have in the future.

And then I think just turning the call into like a broader perspective for what Howmet's going to do over the next few years. I think I'd just like to return to that IGT theme. And I think it may be worthy of updating our guide regarding growth that I provided, I think, during last year, especially in the light of our growth in 2026. And as you know, it's been above expectations. In fact, growth accelerated in the third quarter from the 30% plus revenue increases in the first and second quarter to a 45% level.

And as I commented earlier, that level of growth is clearly well in excess of the loan based gas turbine industry and a result of further market share agreements that we've achieved during the course of the negotiations that I referred to in recent calls. So what I see now is that whereas our prior commentary had been around a doubling of IGT sales from 2025 as the base year within a 3- to 5-year period, we now see this as being achieved in 3 years so 2 years at the front end of that. And maybe [indiscernible] to 2.5x inside 5 years, which would take those sales to about $2.5 billion by the end of the decade.

So hopefully, I've covered the perspective of the investments we're making in Commercial Aero, the investments that we're anticipating making right now for GE and the way that those investments will bring additional capacities on towards the end of this decade and into the 2030s.

And also, the impact should something like the first blade have a different destination, albeit we don't think it does. And we see growth in both Commercial Aero and IGT as we go into the next decade.

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

Maybe just to round that out, and this might be kind of a quick one in light of your prior comments, but it might be a good time to round out. You kind of addressed fairly directly potential impact from CPP and on your plans in Aero. When you think about the IGT plant, how do you think about the role of potentially in-sourcing at SpaceX and what that might mean for the IGT market?

First, maybe the comment I should make is that SpaceX is indeed an extraordinary company, which has almost limitless access to capital. And I guess, fundamental to their current plans as the company indeed is to build out sort of the data center business, I think referred to as Colossus 1 and 2. And if you study that part of SpaceX in detail, then it's clear that they sold capacity of those, let's say, ultra modern data centers with the latest, let's say, custom silicon in them to other frontier AI companies such as Google and Anthropic to name a couple.

I think it's important again to note that for those cutting-edge data centers, the gross margins on the tokens that you use like AI token is exceptional. And I'm sure you're aware of how high those are. And hence, the uptime and keeping those data centers going is fundamental and indeed, you can't have interruption of service to that really important revenue stream with that level of margin. And I'm sure it's in that contract with those front AI companies.

Specific to that is on their recent earnings call at SpaceX, they talked about power and specifically behind the meter power and its acquisition, which is so fundamental to achieving that compute increase and switching the compute capabilities are. So to solve those power issues and to get to today's level of compute power, which is using about approximately 1 gigawatt than [indiscernible], the APR company and its fleet of mobile gas turbines to solve the problem. And so these 69 mobile gas turbines were installed and are situated just across the state line to support Colossus. And that power is needed in addition to what power was available from the grid.

And then I guess you know that by the middle of next year, those mobile turbines have to be relocated. And therefore, replacement is required and I think currently to approximately 1.2 gigawatts of parallel to support the Colossus center. And so my understanding from scarring of the Internet and knowing a little bit about the inside of the industry. There are some 33, I'll say, fully fledged titan turbines from [indiscernible] or Caterpillar being installed and the further [indiscernible] 10 Pro Energy 6000 series turbines and you're probably not surprised when I say that Howmet supply those turbine blades to both Titan and to the LM6000 series of aeroderivative turbines.

Getting a bit deeper into it then, on the recent call, Elon Musk talked about his plans going forward for 2027 and he talked about the plans to get to 20 gigawatts of power capabilities to provide you -- to turn on further compute capabilities. And this is by various means, obviously, IGT, wind, solar, the grid, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not coming from one singular source, but part of this was that gas turbines were fundamental to it. And if it's not 20 gigawatts than maybe the thought was at least 10 gigawatts of power could be achieved on top of getting to a 3 gigawatt capability by the mid-year and to be able to turn on that additional compute capacity and then earn that -- those high profits.

And he did comment that to do this, new turbines were required but even like the problem is that the availability of those turbines was restricted in the industry by the availability of turbine blades. And it was commented on the call by SpaceX that these might take another 18 months to 2 years to achieve and therefore, maybe that SpaceX could accelerate the ability of power by providing the blades to those turbines, which turbine could be built, but the availability of the blades wasn't there.

And my understanding is that, one Asian turbine manufacturing company has agreed to supply turbines without the blades. And I assume that those are central to the capability of casting that SpaceX talks about with their special casting capabilities. So I think the SpaceX that can take that step. And maybe even if those blades are not quite at the level that would have been for the original equipment, they can operate at a power rating maybe below the full power rating of the turbine, and it's full durability. But the important thing, it gets power.

And if you think about -- this is all about our acquisition, and what we see generally both for SpaceX and across the industry, the data centers are and constructors are reaching out to get power from any source and -- whether it's by generations of turbines, I think going back to like an E-Series turbine, not today's F-Series or are the more modern 8 -- Series. Just got a Series-E and in addition to that, you've probably read about several start-ups, venture companies, they're looking to get into this segment and launch new companies to provide power using aero derivative engines, which are really at the end of life or aero engines and repurpose them of, let's say, old 737s, as an example.

And our thought is that [indiscernible] those companies will exist and they will start, but maybe they'll become less necessary when additional turbine capacity is brought on stream towards the end of the decade and into next decade. So I'm trying to give like a specific SpaceX answer to your question and then broad it out into the needs of [indiscernible] to achieve the compute levels, which are being planned.

And then I took note and you probably took note from the [indiscernible] call yesterday, their earnings call, they said that now they see that their 2032 order book is largely filled and that obviously, if you think about it, we've talked about being good through '28, good through 2030. Now it's looking at 2031. 2032 looks to be pretty booked. And so views are now turning towards the middle of the next decade for this level of capacity. And my thought is as we see each of those then today's level of investment that we're [indiscernible] is probably not enough. So I don't know whether that covers your specific question, Seth, and then broaden it out into [indiscernible] the data centers.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

John, you mentioned the Blue Blade coming in the 2030s. It's the first time you've talked about that. Obviously, your technology edge is what provides you additional content on the LEAP and GTF and I'm sure you're first in line for the next-gen LEAP blade. Maybe can you quantify for folks how much of your growth is coming from that technology edge content increases versus just volume and price?

And perhaps to that kind of question, as you think about industry players perhaps starting from a more square one, how do you think about what supply/demand looks like today versus 2030 and 2035 and 2040?

Okay. So I guess thematically, what we've been trying to do is step up to the needs for fuel efficiency in the industry and providing a level of capabilities, particularly at the front end of the hot section of the turbine, which could achieve performances at considerably higher [indiscernible] upgrade those turbines to provide that increased fuel efficiency, given the -- especially today, given the cost of jet fuel and maybe what it will cost thematically, it's just the same.

What we envisage is that OE -- further OE production will be required over the next few years with the increases envisaged by the airframe manufacturers and the engines to be supplied to them whether it is for Boeing or Airbus. And if you think about it those things are not going to stand still. There's going to be further content increases. And so I expect that we'll see during the next decade the further capacity that's began to require for OE for the capacity that's going to be required to service these new, I'll say, new fleet of engines on the improvements.

And I also think that fundamentally, when you put higher temperatures, higher pressure into engines is that the replacement cycles actually become more frequent. And so we do envisage a very healthy space demand over that same period of time. And you can see that by the build-out of further MRO shop capabilities in fact, by all of the engine manufacturers, you can look at GE, Safran in particular, and also Pratt & Whitney. Everybody is building that capacity for further [indiscernible] and just keep the same thing going continue to develop our technology and here we are again, having already recruited in the last 5 years, probably several hundred engineers. We're going to increase our engineering staffing again in 2027 by a similar number that we did in 2025 and 2026, as an example, to keep ourselves at the forefront of all the developments.

Next question comes from the line of John Godyn with Citi.

Follow-up on the outlook for the defense portfolio. John, you flagged that you don't have any replenishment of inventories kind of in your outlook, but the demand signals are very strong. It feels like not long ago, we were talking about IGT in a similar way. Maybe you can talk about the scale of the opportunity there? And just give us whatever color you're sort of willing to offer.

Yes. Right now, defense is difficult to really give absolute clarity on in terms of expectation apart from thematically what we're seeing is both the need for replenishment of inventories and parts. Of course, to some degree, we're not clear on the numbers of missions, which have been flowing over the last 3 months. But I think you can assume that they've been extensive and not going to require us to provide provision for a [indiscernible] of spares as we go through 2027, the degree to which we'll probably be also guided by the defense budget rather than the current situation where we have a continuing resolution of the existing level of expenditure.

So I expect that sometime after the midterm that might become more clear. At the same time, there's a lot of other questions that have to be answered in terms of truly definitizing all of the missile work that's there, it's there before us. We've been spending a lot of time with the existing large primes and indeed, some of the, I'll say, newer defense companies getting ready for really putting that into production, albeit again waiting for final definitization of every aspect of the contract as we do that.

So again, probably my thought is that given the situation regarding missiles is that at some point after the midterm, then Congress comes back. The bipartisan agreement is achieved to give us a clarity regarding the defense budget for 2027. And indeed, going forward, given we're now talking about not the individual lots, but multiyear contracts, which are also critical to investments in this area. So while I sort of -- I'm optimistic. I think it's going to be good for us in our planning round. We see the opportunity it's difficult to be precise about it. But we do expect our defense sales to be up in 2027 from what we already know but with an agreed budget, it may become more robust for us.

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Harned with Bernstein.

Can you hear me? Yes?

Yes, we can hear you.

Okay. Good. So John, when you talk about IGT demand, it's really -- it seems like a pretty extraordinary profile going forward. You're up 45% in the quarter, which suggests you've already built ahead of some of this demand, a substantial amount of capacity. And yet, I think the 7 contracts that you set with, the one in Japan being first, that's not even kicked in yet. So I guess, looking forward to this demand profile, can you give us a sense of sort of when these next tranches would come in? But I think more importantly, given your position and the supply-demand imbalance, how should we expect margins to trend on IGT going forward relative to the rest of the business and particularly the Aero Engine side?

I've talked about margins in the past, Douglas, seeing really that our IGT margins and Aerospace margins are roughly similar. I mean should the rate of growth continue in the IGT space, then we probably would have a little bit of leverage to that volume just against the fixed costs associated with that segment. But I see it more of a continuing -- I'll say, a continuum of development looking for revenue growth with healthy profitability because we really look to have long-term relationships with our customers, never seek to take advantage and because there's always tomorrow to think about.

And we've tried to be really good partners not only with the Aero IGT customers I listed earlier in response to the first call. But also for our IGT customers, and that's whether it is, as you've mentioned, Mitsubishi for Japan or whether it's [indiscernible] Siemens or is it Solar, Baker Hughes and [indiscernible]. We try to work with all of them in a very consistent way.

And in terms of growth rates, it's also -- it's been trying to find something on what's been a moving target. And in fact, we're already in discussions for the willingness to capacitize for additional demand and indeed also introduce new product developments for the industry as we go through the end of the decade into the early 2030s. And so in fact, this week, it was looking at a new part introduction for particularly sophisticated type of large IGP blades for a customer that doesn't start until 2031. And so we're looking at all of that. I'm trying to pathetize for it recognizing that no matter what we do, it seems like we're not going to be able to totally satisfy what the demands appear to be for 2027 as an example.

So we're going to be investing -- we've invested this year. We're going to invest again at a higher level in 2027. And the way things are shaping is that I sense that we're going to have a very continuing high level of capital expenditure into 2028. And we keep reevaluating this, but for ourselves is that given we try to take a very clear-eyed view of capacitization is that for every year, we see an elevated CapEx then give us a little bit of confidence about that future growth and its solidity going into the next decade. And so clearly, we're not going to invest at this sort of levels in '28 and '29, if we're not sure about those revenue increases that are going to happen in the 2030s.

Next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

Just a follow-up on Doug's question. How do you get comfortable? I mean, I think you've talked about this in the past with when you try to think about where the market could be in 2030 or whatever, and you have to make investments upfront here. How do you get comfortable that it's still going to be there in 2030? You know what I mean, when you actually execute a decision.

I really do. I mean, something that we've tried to think about a lot, the security of that demand and think about it in relation to both what we see the fundamental demand in terms of construction of data centers, permitting. We saw a few months ago, there's a lot of questions about data centers in space. And what would that do and try to understand that part of the demand. I'm also spending time thinking about the future generations of chips and for example, the degree to which they'll require the same amount of cooling and therefore, electricity consumption. What's the growth rate that's anticipated by the likes of an Anthropic, OpenAI or Grok or any of the other I will say, frontier models.

And it's -- obviously, it's complicated in terms of kind of put it all together. And then we fall back on -- okay. So given the need for power, what other segments could be there for us if it should start and then we go to look at, for example, liquefied natural gas and the U.S. providing energy security to Europe, all the shipping of gas across the ocean, but the [indiscernible] has to be liquefied. And so compressors use for liquidation of gas, then it's also you've got to get the liquefied gas from the source through pipelines to the ports and terminals.

And then indeed, what's going to be the demand in Europe as we see nothing like of short-term El-Nino, but also fundamental, say, changes that might be going on in climate and hotter experiences in the summer and need for air conditioning and therefore, what does that do to electricity demand and therefore, additional turbines, which are the only realistic means of addressing them in the next decade to any substantial degree and so it's a very big picture involving many different aspects to trying to bring together.

And then finally, okay, under what are the customer contracts that we'd like to see to make sure that we have a feel secure in providing that capacity with -- underpins around corridors or volumes, et cetera, while also being responsive to our customers' needs. So I'm trying to give you like all the things we think about without being like passed on about any one of them because the assumptions do move.

And the -- I will say just the picture has been emerging for all of us over the last couple of years, but it's also something that we feel absolutely justified, we should play in this sector, and we have the capabilities in fact, some quite unique capabilities to achieve the performance required of turbine blades at this scale and this size. And also, as you can imagine, what are the turbines being considered for the future even beyond the current version of the current H-class turbines. And what -- how big do they become? And are they all going to [indiscernible] blades and how sophisticated they are and the critical change of technology, which needs to be brought to bear to achieve that. So there's a lot going on, on this one, Ron.

Yes. And then maybe just one quick follow-on. When you look at the end markets that you're confronted with today, I mean, just at a very high level, how strong are they? Do you ever expect to have so much demand out of all the end markets you're in between Aero, IGT, Defense? I mean it seems like everything is just ripping right now.

Yes. No, we did not. I used to think to myself, well, we're sort of fortunate in one sense that airfreight manufacturers weren't able to build everything because we haven't -- we're able to continue to drive our company forward and say, improve our level of earnings capability when times are really tough, demand was going to be more robust in the future because of the lack of build of aircraft. So I use to turn that negative into a positive about where I thought. And so I'm always looking for like how can this be better for us in the future? And how do we maximize that technology build out combined with the volume build-out?

I never thought that IGT would look like it is. And so I think sometimes in life, you get lucky. And this is one of the things where I feel as though we've had some good luck. But on the other hand, I temper that with all of the things that go against you and you are having a pass through them. And -- so maybe I got to take a bit of a [indiscernible]a little bit of the rough. And so I quite like it. But I just thought -- at the same time, I don't want to get giddy about it. And certainly, overcapacitized. And that's why I spent a long time talking about the factors that I need to think about in terms of that capacitization.

And some of that was exactly the conversation that I led our Board through, I'd say, 10 months ago and try to say to them, these are all the potential, these are the issues, these are the risks. And this is what I think we need to do and with [indiscernible] left into this is something that we can do, should do, and it's good for us. But you're right, I never thought that we would be seeing, I'll say, defense gas -- land-based gas turbines and aerospace, all moving in a part of the [indiscernible] it's straining us. I mean you think about hundreds of engineers, thousands of production pits, we're probably now at 7 new manufacturing plants and considering 3 more. So there's so a lot going on. I mean, growth could be tough as well.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.

My name is Sheila Kahyaoglu with the Jefferies Aerospace, Defense and Airlines Equity Research team in case you're on the webcast. And we have John Plant, who's Chairman and CEO of Howmet. John, do you like what I have in my hand here for the first question?

Is that something you stole?

I did. I stole it from Whitehall, Michigan. It's a piece of a core at a very impressive facility. And I keep it in my bag actually all the time. It's like a little bit of a lucky charm. And I thought what better way to start off than say, I stole a piece of the core, and it seems like lots of people are trying to steal a piece of your core, whether it's SpaceX or GE. So...

I still think you should hand that back to us.

No, no. I actually have a spare one in case you did try to take this away from me. I have secretly locked up in my jewelry box.

So how do we think about your next move from here?

Are you talking about me personally, or the company, or what? I mean...

I don't know...

I don't know. You just want to tantalize you with the all the opportunity you have to consider. I'm inviting you to get more specific.

So how do you think about my interest in war games from here and how the scenarios play out? You said on your...

Well, I was rather shocked at one of your suggestions. So I decided that you really had lost it in your positioning. That's -- but then that's me and the way I think about you, Sheila. She who steals parts from us. So my assumption is you're referring to like some recent announcement, SpaceX, and that was a topic du jour like a week or so ago. And...

And then you had another...

Yes. And I never want to avoid anything. I think myself, yes, let's talk about it because it's far better that I do because you'll just be relentless in following up questions if I don't. And so my first thought about it is, let me try to put the whole issue of power provision into -- and the demand seen by turbine manufacturers for whether it's provision for oil and gas pipeline or whether it's into data centers. And what is all that about? And where are we in that journey?

And I think the most important and acute aspect of it is the demand evolution in the data center market because that clearly is -- a data center without power is useless. And availability of turbines has never been less against a greater need. And so where are we? And so I think I've got to start off with trying to make sure that we are all level set on the nature of today's data center demand.

So historically, if you go back let's say, the storage of your images on your iPhone or your e-mail and a data center, that was more, let's call it, plain vanilla demand, and that was using, I'll say, standard merchant available chips, very different to the data center demand, which is really emanating today from the likes of the software being written by OpenAI or by Anthropic and now I'd say, data centers that are being built out with very advanced GPU chips, let's say, use NVIDIA or custom silicon. So you've got very much yesterday's, let's say, more standard silicon and tomorrow, it's custom silicon. You've got air cooled versus air and liquid cooled. You've got stable power demands for, yes, it is data center to highly variable power demands for the more exacting and that's certainly a topic of the day of where data centers are.

And that also influences the turbine selection and also the technologies that go into that because when you got variable power requirements, it puts very different loads on the turbine compared to, let's say, the more stable plain vanilla demand. And so not only is more power required, but it's the type of power that's there.

So you get very different answers to what's the preferred turbines that service this market beyond the electricity from the grid, but what are you putting in there. So it's also driving the nature of, let's say, not just for the use of natural gas, but also the robustness of the set of turbine blades. So the evolution from Equiax through directionally solidified to single crystal, all of that is going on. And at the same time, all of the movement towards air cooled turbine blades is also going on.

And the one thing about Howmet is that we provide that pathway of technological evolution, which is rather unique in what we do, and it's a world away from the plain old, solid Equiax turbine blade of yesterday. And these things get exponentially more difficult to manufacture as you go through that technological journey towards the future.

And so what do we see? First of all, going back is that very much the offering that we have goes very much to the more advanced, let's say, custom silicon variable power requirements of these modern variable according to how many searches are going on at one particular time. So it's important to talk about that, the technology drift for the future. And it's something I haven't really talked about much in the past. And so I think that's an important thing to get out there. And I wanted to say it in a more public forum. So I'm not advantaging anybody else in that knowledge as we go through.

Second point that probably should be made is that, as you know from what I've said in the past, our market share is significant. And that market share has been growing and indeed is growing. We have, according to the last earnings call I gave that we have now concluded agreements with all of the -- I used the word 7, but 1 of the 7 being, let's say, our aggregation of various aero derivatives, but all of the big turbine manufacturers, so I think GE Vernova, think Siemens, think Mitsubishi Heavy. And then you've got the smaller and midsized turbine manufacturers. So you think about Caterpillar Solar, Baker Hughes, Doosan and so on. So we've got all of those laid out.

And these contracts, first of all, are multiyear. They go through the end of the decade and beyond and in some of the cases to the middle of the next decade. That's an important aspect as well. And also, it defines price and also supply position and share within it. And in one case, we actually have an exclusive arrangement and exclusive means 100%. So that is really a good position for us to be in.

And the biggest issue that we have today now is really not only facilitizing for the capital that we have been deploying, but what we're going to continue to deploy over the next 2 or 3 years. But also our next decision is do -- we need to have more building footprint for the capacity expansion. So this part of the market is exciting for us. And I'm going to say probably sometime in the next 2 or 3 earnings calls, maybe the one in February, I'll probably update everybody about -- my statement was that we would -- from the 2025, we would see a doubling of our revenues somewhere in the 3- to 5-year time period. I think I'm going to update that, not today, but it will be coming at some point.

Yes, I'm not 100% exclusive with you, so I wouldn't get that right...

Yes. I was going to get to the second point now because I mean you'll want to ask a second question at some point during the meeting, but let's get the two big things out there and talk about it. And of course, the topic du jour yesterday was the announcement that GE were buying and hopefully closing a year from now, the acquisition of CPP, which is a turbine -- sorry, I didn't address SpaceX for you, did I?

So you wanted me to -- let me just go back and just cover that because the question, I think, has been is the intention to become a supplier of third-party parts as a merchant supplier or just because today, whether it's -- maybe it's Colossus 1 or 2, they're requiring a lot more power. And I think a smaller turbine company was purchased people who run turbines for living, not manufacture them or even the provision of buying old engines from -- aero engines and repurposing them for that.

So there's a lot going on. And the question is how can they get replacement parts for some of those things. So I think you need to look at more of that part of the market than the more advanced part of the market that we've been talking about in the last 5 minutes. So I missed that before I went to the GE announcement. So I think I've covered that. But if anybody else, I mean, if you want to follow up on SpaceX, would be my guest.

And then the more recent one was the GE and CPP, which we knew it was coming up for a sale. We had read it. But essentially, we also knew that for us, it was an impossibility in terms of antitrust, et cetera. And it does, of course, beg the question, well, what's the intent? And you saw the intent yesterday was to look at developing it over the years. And I think we should be fine with that.

And the question is, if there is additional investment and capacitization of CPP in the future, is that at the detriment of everybody else? Or is it one of our competitors? Or is it more aimed at the turbine side or the structural casting side? But I think we're pretty confident in our own abilities. In fact, the biggest issue we have now is actually provisioning for additional capacities in the aerospace market. And without getting very specific, because I don't think I should talk specifically about any 1 or 2 customers, but it's multiple customers within the aero engine market, including the name I just talked about, are asking us, can we provision for increased capacities going through the end of the decade and beyond. And of course, we're unlikely to do that if we're not clear on that capacitization and durability of that provision.

So we're fairly confident in that. And that's borne of, in fact, been asked for a special doubling of demand for one of the engine customers because of our extraordinary quality and what's probably more important is our 100% on-time delivery. And so that's the biggest, I would say, challenge that we're facing is that what it is like -- that's like an additional 1.5 manufacturing plants worth of capacity build-out on top of what we're already doing. And as you know, we're spending an extraordinary amount of capital today and building footprint. And I'm unlikely to do that without being sure that capacity is going to be fully utilized during the 2030s and beyond. So I feel as though we have extraordinary technology, extraordinary capabilities, and we'll be showcasing that increasingly in the future.

That's great to hear. I think you've mentioned in the past, you have 50% share of the turbine and blade market across both aerospace and IGT combined. And Merrick slipped in March at the Analyst Day in Whitehall and said this year, 2026 would be the year of highest -- the record number of new product introductions. I guess, how do you protect your IP from people like myself, SpaceX and GE to dig into the moats of your business as new entrants try to come in?

We protect ourselves in many ways, not only just in, let's say, the IT environment of -- there are various vaults for information because we are attacked every day from certain jurisdictions in the world in trying to obtain information. We also pay extraordinary attention to CMMC compliance because of our defense industry, I would say, requirements and have, I think, tried to make sure we're at the forefront of that level of cybersecurity.

But we also have physical security of partitioning production into very different parts of the process. So there's only a few people in the company that can ever see across the whole range of the processes that we do. And we are always making sure that you can't just go and hire someone from Howmet and let's say, extreme, jump from Howmet and go be enticed to go to Texas, to somewhere because you only know like a fraction of the information. So we're trying to protect it in all of that way as well.

And it's true we have a lot of new product introductions. You know some of them because they're very public in terms of some of the, say, upgrades of narrow-body engines, but there's a lot of others going on as well, both in commercial, but also in the defense aerospace markets. And now, I'll say, collaborative combat aircraft and missiles and the large cruise missiles where we're doing work for and not just the institutional componentry of the structural parts, but I'm talking about smaller turbines.

And the one thing I haven't mentioned is that on every single one of our major aerospace customers, we have long-term contracts, which again define share and also go beyond to the end of the decade and beyond. And also, we will be wanting to -- we always consider duration of where we are. In fact, there's only one customer in the aerospace world, which is mainly in the business jet turbine market, where we haven't got a lockdown where that's due for renewal on 1/1/27. So they're already well past date of supply.

Got it.

So what I've been trying to do is to give you a picture of our sustained business, both technologically and by way of contract, but more importantly, of the way we protect information as well to try to keep stuff inside Howmet and knowledge. And we also choose in most areas, not to patent things. So you're not even aware of what we're doing because if we patent it, then you become aware of what we're trying to protect.

That makes sense. Maybe the third element could be perhaps CapEx and the ability to build out greenfield facilities, which you're no stranger to. I guess, is it feasible that in a few years, we wake up and there's a fifth supplier of blades and vanes out there, whether whatever spectrum that has?

Because in this life, you never say never because that's for a future event that we know nothing about. I can say it's probably very unlikely, but I'm not going to say never. Somebody with unlimited funds and maybe unlimited time could, but highly unlikely and it would not be an economic decision.

Got it. On that front, if we could talk about the industrial gas market. It's moved at roughly a high single-digit growth rate, and you're clearly seeing the business double now to $2 billion in annual sales. How do you -- or you've talked about the business doubling. How do you think about the time line for that and just milestones in achieving that along the way?

I think I said earlier, I'd probably be updating everybody.

I'm trying to get a little bit of a glimpse into what's...

I know I recognize that. But I'm going to stay strong and not -- as enticing and as nice as you are, I'm not going to weaken at this point.

And a little bit of crazy based on...

And with Sheila, you always get a bit of crazy. I think you all know that as well. But if I say to you, when I update the market, assuming that I carry through what I just said, I'm probably not thinking I'm going to take it down. How is that? I mean, is that a lot for you -- isn't that a lot just for you?

That's quite unhelpful actually. When you think about the IGT market, you started off the discussion with the evolution of how data and additional data centers have evolved, and that puts more pressure on blades. You've also talked about scaling your single crystal into IGT over the medium term. How do you think about the technology moving within IGT blades specifically?

There's clearly this move that's been going on as the aerospace market has done over the last 50 years, going from the Equiax type of blade construction to directionally solidified towards single crystal. It may surprise you that the single crystal aspect of the market is actually quite small today. And it's only in the most exacting environments where you have that. And it also can depend upon what position in the turbine you are with more likely that it will be towards the front end of the turbine and the gas path.

And yet at the most extreme, the most -- particularly in the midsized turbine, the most extreme, the modern blade is now every bit as sophisticated, if not even more so than the latest aero engine blade. I'm not talking about -- I'm talking about compared to the commercial arena. I'm not talking about into the military arena. But what we've developed for one customer and now it's not just the first blade, but also we're talking about air cooled, vary microns of control in multiple parts of that blade on the inside across at least the first stage or 2 or so. I mean again, I want to be careful. I don't want to give too much information on behalf of our customers, but they are truly at the most, I would say, sophisticated level.

And so -- and we're doing that not only in those midsized turbines, but we're also provisioning and also now supplying at both a direction solidified and single crystal level in the very large turbine blades and now you're talking things which are 3 feet plus long and getting bigger. And so hitherto, we had the singular biggest casting furnace in the world. And we're just building -- we're actually commissioning building of several more, and we're almost turning that into our industry at the moment. But going to be again at the forefront of that and building the next biggest one in the world that, again, can take the scale and size of these blades to another level, anticipating there are, say, further requirements coming towards us.

I don't blame you for not wanting to give out info. Every Grok tweet about a blade and a vane has a quote from you as a factual comment to follow-up. So...

Does it? Shoot...

I don't blame you to not focus on the -- not provide as much technology color. You're in the middle of a significant CapEx cycle and maybe most people don't realize your CapEx has actually doubled since '23 to support the revenue base that's set to exceed $10 billion in '26. As you look to major expansion plans you have in Japan, Europe and the U.S., how do you think about how you balance that with the OEM discussions you're also having through the 2030s and what conversations look like to actually deliver on that demand?

Well, I can tell you the sheer scale of the capitalization is certainly testing us. So -- and you actually do interestingly reach physical limits on certain things. So when -- for example, when we're building a new casting furnace, what you see above the ground is only half of the machine. The rest of it is sitting at an equivalent level below ground, things that you've never seen because as you visited us, you obviously didn't go below into the tunnels underneath. And why should you, especially if you got heels on. But we wouldn't have shown you anyway.

But it's interesting. So when you actually manufacture these things, you actually have to have a plant with big open holes in the floor, so you can build these things. And we've already -- we've just actually, could you believe it, built another one just so we can have lots of holes in the floor so we can build additional machinery to capacitize the future. So it is testing us in many ways because we hadn't thought we were going to be there building this amount of equipment.

And so far, we are on track, and we know that our customers want it. In fact, as recently as this weekend, an e-mail, because we just completed something with one of the large IGT customers and saying, yes, thank you very much. And please understand that we would like you to produce even more in '27 and '28. And it is almost like it doesn't really matter what, just produce something just because the demand requirement is so great. And just now the emphasis on build, just build.

And so that's -- it's quite exciting. We're just up against capacity limits. And that's why I've been emphasizing in the last couple of earnings calls, what we've been able to try to achieve on yield because while the capacity is beginning to come in, what we've done so far this year in getting out this additional 30% plus has been a function of yield and also moving to more repeatable production using takt time because we are now having in certain areas of provision being able to go to serial production rather than batch production. And that matters to us.

And to think all these investors thought last week's share price performance was the only thing testing you. It happened to be just physical capacity and being able to deliver to customers that you are worried about. So...

That was interesting because on Friday, it was all about how am I going to build another 2.5 manufacturing plants on top of what we've already talked about. And everybody else is worrying about something else come Monday morning, it's like yes, but that's the way it is.

I guess to quantify that, how do you think about your level of support to the commercial OEMs and IGT OEMs over the next several years as you've built out these facilities and done a ton of hiring?

We try to be really good partners with all of our customers. We try to take the attitude, do what you say you'll do and meet the commitments that we have agreed on. I mean it isn't to say sometimes that people don't want more because that's also -- but it's more which has come from for themselves getting surprised by just the sheer scale.

And 3 years ago, I don't think any of us were really talking about the levels of demand and build either in the aerospace market or in the -- I would say, the gas turbine market. It was not something. In aerospace, it was -- we know we're going to build more aircraft, but nobody had any concept of just the sheer amount of spares that are going to be required. And in the gas turbine market, nobody anticipated, I don't think, what was going to be required. And I mean, none of us thought we're going to have chips built by NVIDIA at this level, or is it Cerebras or any of the other custom silicon manufacturers and therefore, turbine manufacturers as well.

So on that point, I think spares is 22% of sales, doubling from 2019 levels. How do we think about how much higher aerospace, IGT and defense spares could go from here?

It's difficult to know who's going to win the race on volume increase, given that I think we all are expecting additional aircraft build over the next few years. We're also expecting because we've been provisioning and that's what the capacity is all about producing more. I mean, obviously, let's say, Mitsubishi is going to build a lot more turbines or at GE Vernova, and therefore, we're going to build a lot more OE blades as well. But every one of these things is also producing its own revenue stream for the future by way of additional spares requirements. And the fleet is working harder. I tried to describe to you the -- it's not just the volume effect on the fleet, but it's the variability of the power demand, which is also driving some of the spares requirements.

And it's difficult to handicap it exactly right now. I mean if you look at the -- I mean, if you say 2027, I mean, I'm clear that we're going to be during the changeover that's going on in -- on more likely not the LEAP-1B. And then I'm thinking about in the GTFA and therefore, there's going to be some aspect, which is going to be retrofit some of the fleet in some of those things as well. And the gas turbine fleet is working harder. The pipelines are working harder. The liquefification of natural gas for shipping to give more energy provision to Europe is providing demand. So everything is working harder.

And then everything that we're going to build or have built from '25 through 2030, that's going to produce a level of aftermarket demand in the 2030s. So should the OE demand stop going up, which I don't think it happens. I mean, at the moment, it seems like build rates are going to increase into the 2030s. And your question is how far into -- how far is your crystal ball is that the spares demand is also going to increase by a significant factor for us as well. So handicapping like which one is going to have the highest percentage growth I don't think because I'm too worried about it because one aspect to me thinks does it really matter because if they both go up, life is going to be good.

Sounds good. Defense portfolio has been growing double digits, 11% in Q2. It's anchored by the F-35. And I got to think all the usage in the Middle East is going to help some of the blade work. How do you think about your defense portfolio shorter term and also longer term as we think about missiles and drones?

It seems like things are changing there as well. I mean you have the base level of demand for F-35. I think that just continues given both the buildup for the U.S. and the Air Force and Marine and Navy, but also for the export orders. Clearly, some of the legacy fighters are seeing some renewed interest. So you have now significant increases expected for the F-15 and the F-15 Super Eagle and basically its weapons carrying load that it can provide.

And then the thing which every one of us is grappling with at the moment is missile demand and what's being asked there. And that's the existing designs for missiles. I'm not just talking any classified program. But then there's also what is the method delivery of missiles in the future for the larger cruise missiles, et cetera? Is it going to be bigger solid rocket motors? Or is it going to be smaller turbines? And I think the bet is on some of the smaller turbines.

And then the whole aspect of these collaborative combat aircraft. And I mean, there's things we just don't know and accept that there's going to be these unmanned aircraft flying alongside manned fighters or manned bombers, and we provide into that part of the defense network as well into the strategic bomber area. But is it going to be 2 collaborative combat aircraft per manned? Or is it going to be 22? Or is it more? What's a swarm? I don't know how big a swarm is. And so these things are just unknown. And the only thing we know is we want to be engaged and participative with them and do it as an act of faith that directionally, it's going to turn out to be good.

Two more questions before I go off the hook. Your balance sheet sits at 1.2x leverage post CAM. I guess, how do you feel about M&A from here? Do you have a bigger appetite from M&A just given the 2 recent deals you've done and the castings moves in the market? I'm going to try you one more time.

Yes. I think that M&A should be part of what we think about by way of capital deployment. Clearly, we still want to have investment in our own capacity for organic growth is the favored, I'll say, return that we get on that. We've been buying back shares. We've been increasing the dividend, and you've seen us do a couple of M&A moves. And I think that roughly speaking, at the end of this year, then we're going to be in a position where our leverage ratio is the same as we exited 2025 having bought back a very significant amount of stock, having done, let's say, almost a couple of billion dollars of acquisitions and increase it.

So we are generating cash to do all of these things. And so I think that we'll continue to examine is there anything else that is appropriate we could bolt on to the company. I'm still thinking in that vein. I'm not anticipating any very significant deals no matter what you write in your reports. So I just want to get that one in there just in case -- but I could have a rush of blood to the head, but most unlikely. So I don't find it enticing to do things which take us out of our lane. And I don't think I'm going to answer the second part of your question.

Okay. Last one. I think the Howmet story -- and as I look at my note, there's 60% upside to my price target. So Howmet's story is about technology differentiation process and more. What part of the Howmet story excites you most from here? And what do you think investors are underappreciating?

I think that there's so much of what we do, which is not necessarily visible. You see the outcomes, but you don't see what goes into it. And so I think I see that and I mean not surprisingly. And so I think the outcomes really will continue to be good and healthy. And we've taken ourselves a long way. We've established, I think, a technological leadership position, a supply leadership position and just want to keep being -- about trying to be the best at what we do.

Great. Well, thank you so much, John, for joining me.

Thank you.

Good day, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you Chloe. Good morning, and welcome to the. Howmet Aerospace Second Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

In today's presentation references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS, mean adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Thank you, PT, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Howmet Q2 earnings call. Let's start with the highlights on Slide 4. Howmet completed a successful second quarter. Headline revenues were up 24% year-over-year with strong incremental margins of 4% to 6%, and that was after some impact from the CAM acquisition. Excluding all the M&A activity this year, organic growth was very healthy at 21% for the quarter and 20% for the first half.

EBITDA margin in Q2 was 32.1%, an increase of 340 basis points year-over-year, including the absorption of CAM starting in April. 2027 is the focus year for our CAM optimization plan to begin to drive noticeable synergies. Operating margin was 28.8%. Second quarter free cash flow was just under $0.5 billion, and free cash flow totaled approximately $840 million for the first half. Earnings per share were $1.33, an increase of 46% year-over-year. A total of $600 million in shares were repurchased in the first half of the year, with $300 million being made in the second quarter. We continued to repurchase shares in July for a further $200 million, which resulted in repurchases in 2026, already greater than in 2025. In addition, a further $186 million of debt was retired.

I'll now pass the call to Patrick, who will set out the end market growth percentages and provide some segment commentary.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Please move to Slide 5. It was another strong quarter for Howmet with all end markets growing. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Total revenue was up 24% in the first quarter. Excluding the net impact of the 3 transactions we completed this year, revenue was up 21% year-over-year, an acceleration from the 19% organic growth rate in the first quarter.

Commercial aerospace growth was strong at 28%, with organic growth of 26%, driven by demand for both new builds and spares. We continue to see higher spares demand both legacy and next-generation engines. Defence aerospace growth continued to be solid at 11%, with organic growth of 7%, reflecting healthy spares activity as well as higher legacy fighter demand. Commercial Transportation revenue was up 12%, driven by the pass-through of higher aluminum costs. On a volume basis, wheels was down 8%. However, on a sequential basis, wheels volumes were up 7% as the North American market began to recover.

Gas turbine growth remained very strong with revenue up 38%. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. Growth in other markets of 39% was largely driven by the Brunner Fastener acquisition completed in February. Within Howmet markets, spares growth remained robust. Total spares revenue across the commercial aerospace, defense aerospace and gas turbine markets was up 37% to approximately $560 million. Spares represent a greater portion of our total revenue than historically, now at approximately 22% through the first half of 2026. In summary, continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace and gas turbines with the commercial transportation market recovery underway.

Moving to Slide 6, starting with the P&L. Second quarter revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share all exceeded the high end of guidance. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 24% and 21% organically, the strongest quarterly growth rate for the company since the first quarter of 2023. EBITDA continued to outpace revenue growth, up 39%, the strongest growth in EBITDA since the third quarter of 2021. EBITDA margin increased 340 basis points to 32.1% despite the most headwind from the CAM acquisition. Incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was healthy of 46% year-over-year. Earnings per share were $1.33, up 46% year-over-year.

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet remains strong with a quarter-end cash balance of $564 million. Free cash flow in the quarter was excellent at $479 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA finished the quarter at 1.4x following the completion of the CAM acquisition. During the quarter, we paid down our $186 million Japanese yen term loan due November 2026. In addition, during the quarter, we entered into a cross-currency swap to synthetically convert our $300 million notes due 2028 into a Japanese yen liability. The combined effect of these 2 actions saves approximately $12 million in annualized interest expense. Liquidity remains strong with an undrawn $1 billion revolver complemented by a $1 billion commercial paper program, $450 million of which was drawn to support the CAM acquisition.

Turning to capital deployment. CapEx was $104 million in the quarter. The majority of our capital spend continues to be in the Engine Products segment as we continue to invest for growth in both the aerospace and gas turbine markets. Investments are backed by customer contracts. In the quarter, we repurchased $300 million of common stock, an average price of $251 per share. We repurchased an additional $200 million in July at an average price of $277 per share. This brings year-to-date repurchases to $800 million at an average price of $248 per share. As of today, the remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $700 million. We continue to be confident in strong future free cash flow. We announced an increase in the Q3 quarterly stock dividend of 17% from $0.12 per share to $0.14 per share payable this August. Finally, turning to M&A. We completed the previously announced CAM Fastener acquisition on April 6, for approximately $1.8 billion and the integration is on track.

Now let's move to Slide 7 to cover the segment results for the second quarter. The Engine Products team delivered another excellent quarter for revenue growth, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 32% to $1.37 billion. Commercial aerospace was up 37% and defense aerospace was up 17%. The gas turbine market was up 38%. Demand continues to be strong for both original equipment and spares. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 51% to $517 million. EBITDA margin increased 470 basis points to 37.7%, while absorbing approximately 485 net new employees in the quarter, positioning us well for future growth.

Please move to Slide 8. Fastening Systems had another solid quarter. Revenue increased 37% to $589 million, including the impact of the CAM and Brunner acquisitions. Commercial Aerospace was up 39% and defense aerospace was up 45%. Commercial transport was flat year-over-year. Excluding the impact from acquisitions, total fasteners growth was double digits. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 40% to $177 million. EBITDA margin increased 90 basis points to 30.1%, reflecting continued operational execution. As expected, margins declined sequentially and driven by the addition of the CAM business in the second quarter.

Moving to Slide 9. The Engineered Structures team continues to drive improvement in the business. Revenue declined 13% to $269 million due to the divestiture of the Savannah Disc forging facility on March 31. Excluding the impact of Savannah, revenue growth was approximately flat. We continue to focus on higher margin and stronger return opportunities in the business. EBITDA margin increased 170 basis points to 23.8% as we continue to optimize the structure segment to maximize profitability.

Finally, please turn to Slide 10. Forest wheels delivered another healthy quarter. Revenue was up 14% as an 8% decrease in volume was more than offset by higher aluminum pass-through. Volumes rose 7% from the first quarter as the North American market began to recover. EBITDA was $88 million, an increase of 16% despite lower volume. EBITDA margin increased 30 basis points year-over-year but declined 270 basis points sequentially, reflecting the dilutive effect of sharply higher aluminum cost pass-through. Higher metal pass-through diluted margins by approximately 360 basis points year-over-year but had no material impact on EBITDA dollars. This dilutive impact on margin percentage is likely to continue at least for the next couple of quarters. EBITDA dollars were largely unchanged sequentially. We continue to outgrow the market, driven by our premium products.

Now let me turn the call back to John.

Thank you. Thank you, Patrick, and please move to Slide 11. Let me turn to the outlook. First, as you can see, the first half target outcomes have been achieved while also facing a turbine and economic and political backdrop. The tailwinds experienced have reflected more robust build rates for commercial aircraft and also for a positive order intake for commercial truck builds. In addition, IGT demand has been extraordinary. .

Moving specifically to commercial aerospace. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has resulted in increased volatility of jet fuel and gasoline prices and has impacted recent commercial air traffic activity. Howmet has not experienced any changes in cost of demand. Throughout the conflict to date, airfreight volumes have continued to strengthen. At the same time, interest rates have climbed reflecting higher inflationary signals and the outlook for near-term rate cut has dimmed, despite the issues in the Middle East orders for new aircraft have continued to grow and the overall backlog has increased. This bodes well for future aircraft build rates with increases being seen for the balance of 2026 into 2027 and beyond.

The business jet segment also continues to be strong with increases both in new aircraft build and spares. Defense sales also continue to be strong, especially for spares and legacy aircraft, with the F-35 OE build continuing to be solid. The near-term outlook for our missile business continues to strengthen, with demand increases being either seen or signaled for the PAC-3, FAD, Tomahawk and some classified programs. The focus on engines for large missiles, drones and collaborative combat aircraft continues with growth expected in the medium term.

Turning to gas turbines. We have completed negotiations with the last of our 7 major customers, although the overall picture continues to expand with some customers already wanting to revisit and add to their demand outlooks. This gas turbine demand growth, both for large, small- and medium-sized turbines is further supported by new gas turbine blade applications and also increased new product technology introductions. And these will help Howmet to outgrow its current market share.

Our capital expenditure requirements continue to increase. And while this year, we are now likely to exceed $500 million in capital spend, we are already seeing the need to further increase this in 2027. This increased level of capital expenditure provides support to our future organic growth expectations. The outlook for free cash flow conversion and net income is maintained at a 90% target conversion throughout the period. The resulting cash flows to date have enabled us to deploy capital for organic growth, execute share buybacks and support dividend growth while also absorbing a significant acquisition. Continued healthy cash generation should allow us to return our leverage level back to approximately 1x net debt to EBITDA by year-end. The same level that we exited 2025. Given the level and the high level of our capital expenditure, plus our acquisitions of almost $2 billion and the share buyback of the amounts already exceeding 2025, our leverage level is very comfortable and allows us to consider all paths of optionality going forward.

Moving now to the commercial truck wheels business. The results are strong, even after coping with extraordinary increases in the aluminum LME and Midwest premiums, [indiscernible] into the second quarter accelerated and the outlook for the balance of the year looks healthy with external forecasters now envisaging and even stronger 2027.

Moving to specific numbers for the guide and reflecting the typical third quarter seasonality, including European vacations, numbers are revenue in the third quarter of $2.75 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA of $830 million, plus or minus $5 million, earnings per share of $1.35, plus or minus $0.01. For the full year guide, this has increased again to revenue of $10.05 billion, plus or minus $50 million, EBITDA of $3.23 billion, plus or minus $20 million, earnings per share of $5.27 plus or minus $0.04. Free cash flow seemed to be $1.9 billion plus or minus $50 million. These guide increases are across the board given our growing confidence in the year.

In closing, the Howmet team delivered a solid first half performance, with prospects for further growth and a robust second half as outlined. In November, at our Q3 earnings call, we expect to provide our first siding at the 2027 revenue, which we expect will be an increase over 2026 million.

And with that, we'll now move to the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

John, you noted IGT customers continue to revise upward their demand outlook, and I don't blame them who wouldn't want more. you're talking about higher CapEx for the foreseeable future. What are you seeing in the competitive dynamics at play in the IGT market in terms of the technology advantage you have, the scale which you could produce? And how are you thinking about your own ability to support these ramps as a few of your peers also seeking business there?

Thanks, Sheila. Let's deal with scale first. And I think I'll start off with saying it's important to note that Howmet has a market share in excess of 50% globally for turbine blades in the IGT market. And therefore, the growth of that market is dependent upon our willingness to invest, which we're doing. We've already commented in previous calls about the new plant we built in Japan. The major expansion in Europe, always call it a new plant. And also building out the capital in our existing footprint in Virginia in the U.S. in addition to facilitization that we're very substantial investments in new capital equipment, we have created additional space in our Virginia plant by exiting some or moving some nickel alloy work such that we can either make additional IGT componentry or if not some additional titanium castings. And I guess we'll deploy that space on a first come first serve basis and see expansion. Bonding for sure, it's going to be sold out pretty quickly. .

We're also seeing, as I commented in my earlier remarks that we have several new applications for existing technology. And also, we have several new project introductions that we have to make over the next 2 or 3 years. And that leads us to believe that our market share will further increase. To date, the market is roughly split equally for turbine blading between Equiax and directionally solidified parts. The single crystal still being a fairly minor part of the overall turbine blade topology at sort of less than 5%. So when you think about technologies, first of all, for the movement through the normal sequence through turbine blade applications. We see the opportunity of further moving from Equiax to directionally solidified and then to single crystal albeit at the moment to demand is such that customers we really just want whatever we can make. And so for the next couple of years, I expect the demand increase to be roughly split between Equiax and directionally solidified.

In terms of where does this go in the future, clearly, we're going to move to an increased use of core blades to allow airflow through them. And again, that plays very much to the Howmet strength and our capabilities in very large core blade capabilities, and we'll see that increasingly we deployed as we go through towards 2030 and beyond. So I feel as though both for the applications -- we had new applications we're seeing, the technology movement and a drift that will go on. and the capacitization that we have a fairly good situation for us, plus the elevated CapEx. So we have being significantly deployed in 2026. And in my comments about the future direction, is that we will see another significant step up in 2027, which will be both for the industrial gas turbine markets but also for commercial aerospace. I certainly don't want to forget the commercial air space because as recently as last week, I signed off in fact, the building of a new plant in that area as well.

So my expectation is we will continue to meet market demand, we'll grow with the market. And I think we'll also grow with those new project introductions beyond the market and increase our overall share. Just address for a moment because I do want to cover something which has been topical of late, that is, is there a threat for data centers in space. So I'll just speak very briefly to that because it is something which has been raised. Clearly, conceptually, the opportunity of getting more direct access and using solar array is possible. It's a big solution to solve what may be a permitting problem at the moment. But there's a lot of technical things which have to be overcome. I mean, starting with if you're going to put a gigawatt of capacity into space, then maybe you've got lift 20,000 tons. And on what sort of rockets and frequency of launches that you need to get that. And so I imagine to do one data center using a current Rocket technology is going to be 1,000 launches or maybe it's 150 or 200 starship launches. And that's obviously a lot more than we have today. And I mean the benefit is you don't need to get permits, but the issues of maintenance or replacement of GPUs every couple of years, and also the sheer scale of the solar arrays and the issue of space debris and how do you fix them. Once it's been hit with debris over, let's say, 4 square kilometers of unit, those are big things to overcome. So I think we're looking at really some time in the 2040s or maybe it's a 2050 to consider this as a likely outcome. So I just like to try to give that perspective while talking about the overall current market as well.

Next question comes from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

Just John, continuing on the ICT path here, as you've talked about, the demand is extraordinary. And you've talked about a number, 6 or 7 new agreements that you've signed. And what I'm trying to understand here is how quickly can one respond to demand in terms of sort of signing a deal and then actually delivering products on that. And I say it because your reference to SpaceX. I mean this week, they talked about adding at least 15 gigawatts of terrestrial capacity over the next 18 months. I mean, is it possible to respond to this kind of growth since you're the leading player on blades.

So I'll start with 2026, Doug, and are, let's say, 30% -- 35%, 38% increase in revenue has actually exceeded what I thought we would possibly do. And that's been mainly from achieving yield improvements on the existing asset base, albeit if you go back and look at the comments I made towards the back end of '24, where we talked about making some investments in IGT, which was, I'd say, notable because we've not really talked about it before.

And then what we've talked about in 2025, especially given the consequences of the new administration and their fossil fuel focus. Then we do have the benefit of some of that capacity coming on stream. So the delivery of our first new large casting machine into Japan and another one is going to follow in the second half. And in fact, that new plant that in fact, I visited that in April, is going to be -- it's already essentially fully spoken for. We have won on casting pit left but I think that capacity is going to be done. So we have a progressive build out of what we've already committed by way of significant investments. But for the new, I will say, gigawatts of capacity coming on, then really we're looking at 2028, 2029 and even the more recent ones, '29 into 2030. So what I expect is that we will see growth throughout the next 4 or 5 years. And we've installed some of that already. Some of it's already logged to come in, in '27, but with another major step into '28 and '29.

I suspect that we may not have finished yet because, as I said earlier, we are seeing some of the demand patterns revisited. And so I think there's more play to come. which we haven't built into our future plans yet because until it's more certain, then we'll just hold off on that and I'd be clear. So -- so it's not a single item which equals capacity index. But if we started now, you can assume that it's a brand-new new commitments in, let's say, August of '26, you can say it's earliest August of '28, if you just like say, okay, what's the next piece of machine equipment that we could build or we can get from our machine to all suppliers. And we've had to book capacity at some of those on the expectation of some of this coming through just to make sure we can be responsive to our customers.

The next question comes from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

John, I was wondering if you could give us an update on what you're seeing on aerospace OEM and the wide-body market, how those reps are progressing and whether you think Howmet has enough capacity in place for the targeted rates or even beyond that?

Okay. So first of all, by way of capacity, essentially the majority of our manufacturing equipment, that equipment does not know whether it's building parts for narrow-body aircraft or a wide-body aircraft. So it will have, I'll say, similar [indiscernible] similar transfer presses and going through similar I'll say, continuously moving heat treatment furnaces or kids. And so for us, it's more a question of the overall market rather than widebody per se. We do feel as though widebody will increase over the next, I'll say, a couple of years. And there are demand increases signaled that both Boeing for the 787 up to rate 10 until the South Carolina plant is further expanded and then maybe opportunities to go significantly higher after that canton.

And then also Airbus, which probably struggled on the A350 over the last 2 or 3 years, and now seem to be entering a period where there's some confidence that their, let's say, rate 5 or 6 will move to 8 or 9 over the next year. And we get increasingly confident that with the freight plus additional A350 demand that, that will also move up significantly in the future. So we do expect, on a percentage basis, large increases in the wide-body market and build rates over the next, say, 2 or 3 years? But also we're going to see, I think, increases in the narrow-body market also for the 737 for the A320. And so we are poised with additional capacities we've already prepared. And I think I just referenced a new plant that we committed to last week, a major expansion and building out of one of the sites we have to create the opportunity for that further expansion that's going to be required.

The next question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

John, is today's commercial aerospace growth at Inter products seeing any benefit from shipping these new or higher-value multihemistry coatings? Or is that transition to multichemistry coatings still largely in front of you? And then I was wondering if you could help contextualize the scope of the growth opportunity that, that provides.

Okay. So we have, first of all, again, been increasing coating capacity the last 2 or 3 years and indeed coat both our own turbid bleeds and also those of others in the industry. So that expansion has continued with, let's say, what called new coating guns and pits. And in fact, we have just completed the last available space in our Whitehall facility, pending a decision about whether we again expand the footprint of that. And that is facilitized for multi chemistry and also the opportunity to put all of the coatings on at the same time. So today, we already put on more than one type of coating briefly talking about some of the exotic coating capability. We actually do not do separate barons through that capacity. We're able to deposit all of the different chemistries all at the same time and do to both the external surfaces and also the internal services of the turbine blade some very small rises that need to be -- have this chemical deposition that a particle level of, I would say, technology position on a very consistent basis because you cannot afford to block any of the air flow passages. .

And so a short answer is, yes, we're casting facilitizing. We're just building out the bit to do multiple depositions all in one. And we're actually facing the decision now, do we actually expand the plants and is probably a more likely than not given more [indiscernible] disposed to actually buying the advanced equipment for that, which in extremes because we tend to get ahead of these things. It's a 3-year [indiscernible] for some of that very exotic equipment.

The next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

Wanted to ask about the ramp on commercial aero sales in the engine business, it was a pretty -- I think, about 10% sequential growth in the quarter. assuming that, that's driven in large part by new capacity that you've added in terms of that new capacity that started coming online at the end of last year, how far -- I guess, how far are you towards the utilization of that new capacity? And how do we think about that continued kind of sequential trajectory from here?

So first of all, we still have some of the machines that we have installed coming up to full rate. And we've also been building out the employee base that is necessary to go on with that build out across all the shifts. And from the existing major capacity expansions, we signal there's still some equipment still still to flow in during the second half of 2026. But it's not like one and done, set, it's going to be additional equipment that we have to install for MIG we've already committed to and contracted either with external machine manufacturers or is not our own, for example, building of our own testing machines that we do. And we have a very active program of doing that over the next, I'll say, 2 or 3 years, both for commercial aerospace and the IGT market. .

And the win we're looking at right now, we do need to make further investments beyond what we have today to be able to achieve the stated rates that our customers will want as we go forward. So I mean, the only question we have is what's the total size of the narrow-body market, total size of the wide-body market and then the add them together, because for us, it's less a question of is it this aircraft platform, that aircraft platform was the aggregate of all of them put together. Plus, in addition to that, the spares demand. And as you've seen, spares growth has also been very substantial. And we expect that to continue to be positive because we've still got the transition for the LEAP-1B and then some, I'll say, retrofit on that, plus I say, while we've started the GTFA for Pratt & Whitney there's a very large increase to be achieved in the second half of this year and even larger into through 2027.

The next question comes from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

John, I wanted to just follow up on the aerospace capacity theme for a minute. Boeing and Airbus are talking about getting to production rates that are 25% to 30% higher than where they peaked pre-pandemic you've got a lot of moving pieces on the engine side, in particular. But where do you think you and the industry are in terms of supporting those rates 3 to 4 years from now? And ultimately, what's the interest to put capacity and to support those rates when you're going to be hitting those rates, right, when you're likely talking about new narrow-body clean-sheet aircraft?

It's very difficult to predict the data entry into service of a new narrow body and it's probably even more difficult to predict what form the engines are on those, let's say, aircraft platform selections, particularly because some of the options are mutually exclusive in terms of wing design, and therefore, it's going to depend upon more fundamental questions on sourcing strategy whether you go single source or dual source or your preparedness to do so and what risk will involve. So that's one big topic to be considered around a date uncertain picture. I think more pertinent is probably -- so what is the true demand pattern over the next, let's say, 3- to 5-year horizon. And its sustainability because, again, we don't want to certainly invest for a singular year peak and then face the demand destruction there afterwards. So we have to be continually monitoring the aircraft backlogs and surety around those in terms of what's the propensity for cancellation and how many are real orders versus options. And therefore, what's the true demand pattern.

And so when we look at things like a robotic previous highs, which may have got to about 100 between Boeing and Airbus 737 and A320 in 2019. Then if you look at today's those 2 aircraft platforms plus the A220 and what do they peak out at. And the question is, is that a combined 125 versus the 100 peak, product peak or 150? And what's the ability -- the whole supply base to be able to support those levels of demand and then both sustainability thereof. So I think it's reasonable to say that be clear we're going to make more the degree to which we have to make more is really yet to be determined. And I suppose it's to some degree also same as we view say, rate increases where we think they're likely, but when we see numbers maybe spike for a moment, then we'll let inventory deal with that while we recruit the workforce to be able to operate and produce those parts inside our capacity envelope. So it's a very live topic, and you also have to look at not just what can Howmet produce, but also what's the ability of the whole industry to march in lockstep and what's the weakest link in that chain of a build rate increase, and there's been a lot of commentary in recent years about those weak links and the supply base, as you know, has been held as responsible for much of the build rate issues. Again, whether that's justified or not, that's not a question for Howmet.

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

I was wondering if you could touch on fastener operations below the surface of the acquisition. And in particular, are you, John, starting to see the pull on the widebody yet? Or is this the commentary more positive at this point?

So if you were to say, are we anticipating getting to, let's say, rate 9 or even rate 10 towards the back end of 2027 for the 787. Then, yes, we are beginning to see demand fill in for those increased rates above the, let's say, level of 6 or 7 in the last year and probably no production of 8. So we are beginning to see that. Of course, it's still ways away from the prior in 2019 at 13 a month achieved in a few months. I'm still well short of the anticipated numbers which are well in excess of 13, which as I said earlier, requires the capacity expansion in South Carolina to be done to achieve that. So yes, we're seeing it -- it's just part of the overall demand increase in -- for our fasteners business.

So we are seeing increased demand across not just I'll say, today's commercial aerospace platforms, but also for defense platforms and also, obviously, some of the larger drones and also working with some of the -- I'll say, the newer, let's quote the new defense companies as well where we're seeing our first orders and those. So we have a very broad-based increase in demand. And our issue right now is being able to be able to cope with all of those increases. But again, we are putting investment into fasteners business, the legacy fasteners business. And also, we are providing additional capital to the new CAM acquisition as well.

Can you update us where you are in the cutovers of the LEAP-1A, B and GTF Advantage?

Well, the 1A, B cutover to the new technology blade has not yet occurred. Now we have polled a lot of it, not all of it, and we'll see increased builds during the second half of 2026. So I expect we'll do the same as we did on the LEAP-1A and have a few hundred engine sets ready in either our or our customers' inventory such that the cutover, which I think will probably more likely be the first half of or first quarter of 2027. But again, there not fixed will be in a good supply situation for that cutover. And then there will be demand not just for the OE build but also, I'll say, to refit some of the existing fleet with that more robust solution. .

On GTFA, similarly, we are building each plant we are lifting our output, albeit it's nowhere near the rate that needs to be achieved currently. And that applies to both the turbine blades and vanes for that aircraft engine. And what I see is that the back half of this year. I think that we'll probably be supplying the full volume of the legacy blade with still a very large aftermarket demand because that's the only one that's truly available as a complete suite of upgrade for the engine. And so it's going to be the legacy blade pretty full volumes for the balance of this year as building out increased production each quarter for the GTFA ready for some time in 2027 to be fitted to aircraft engine, which arrives at customers. plus also then the retrofit program, which I think is going to be an even bigger program for us on the 1B.

Next question comes from Scott Mikus with Melius Research.

Turning to the defense side, the F-35 fleet has seen heavy utilization in Iran. Just curious about how you're thinking about the uplift to defense areas in the second half of this year and in 2027 as well beyond what you're initially expecting? And is that also driving the need for incremental CapEx at Engine Products?

I guess the that question, Scott needs to be widened out a little bit beyond just F-35 because of the other aircraft being flown and also use of missiles as well. And so the very precise answer to, are we seeing demand increase currently from all the additional emissions flow and missile stocks utilized. The answer to that is no. We are not. But in discussions with our engine customer, as recently as the air show last month. Both of us are expecting to see a significant increase in spares demand coming from that. And I think you'll see it on aircraft from F-18s, 22s, F-35s, et cetera, plus the parts we supply to sort of the stealth farmers, et cetera, et cetera. So I think there's going to be -- I don't know, it's an anticipation of some bubble of demand coming. But I don't necessarily think it's like -- it's not going to be in Q3 of 2026. So I don't know about Q4 yet. It's more likely at 2027 items that is anticipated but not assured because we don't have specific orders in hand or anti-space requirements in hand.

On the missile side, which I would say is currently very active given the use of missiles. And so we are being asked to consider various rate increase proposals across, again, I'll say, 2, 3 customers with the sort of missile programs that I mentioned in my earlier remarks. And to some degree, we've got to work our way through that in terms of the durability of that demand. And also, it's actually competing for space in our Virginia facility. And at the moment, we have nothing formally agreed by way of increased orders, which are going to be absolutely necessary should those vessel programs actually get built out.

The next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

Nice results. John, if I look at Fastening margins. And if we backed out the CAM contribution or lease our estimate, it looks like you had, again, another kind of almost record margin for Fastening. What's the best way to think about the time line for synergies for the CAM acquisition?

Okay. So the -- I think the first 3 months of the acquisition have been very much getting hold of, for example, the IT systems and correcting and improving them to have the latest levels of, let's say, CMMC capabilities for cybersecurity and a more modern approach in that area, a whole IT suite or a lot of work has gone on there. The usual simulation and harmonization of benefit programs for the employees and also an assessment of what needs to be done to improve the asset base. All of the original thesis about what we think we can do by way of improving the margins, is there both for, I'll say, the more straightforward, I'll say, operating synergies of amalgamating and looking at the supply base. We've got clear a lot of line of sight to that now, and we'll begin to see some of that in the second half of the year. But I think the majority of it comes in 2027, it takes a little while to turn down some prior commitments both in the supply base and also in the customer arena.

And also all the work we said that we would do by way of building out some additional distribution programs or our own distribution arm on going through third-party distributors that will be progressively come on board during 2027. So we're doing it. It is everything we thought that CAM would be for us is still intact, and it looks good for us. But this quarter and for the merger this year, we're going to see they were a 20% company, so we were 30% give limit together. And -- and basically, any increase we've done on our legacy business has offset that dilution. So we're still doing it like a 30% fastest margin. But with the prospects hopefully, I've seen some improvements on that as we get into 2027. In earnings per share terms, these debt servicing that will offset a lot of the earnings. So you said your breakeven is for this year, and again, starting to see positive EPS effect in 2027 and beyond.

The next question comes from John Godyn with Citi Group.

John, I just wanted to follow up on free cash flow deployment and opportunity. Obviously, you guys are executing a balanced approach. We saw the dividend go up. The buyback is going up. But just given the top-tier operational execution of the company, there seems to be an argument to continue leaning into M&A and I wanted to take your temperature there and maybe just plug into your kind of vision and world view.

So as you've seen, we did lean into a couple of acquisitions this year. And I think the -- I think the really good outcome is that we've expanded the top line and bottom line of the company. And even with all of that, I'll say, use of cash flow to buy back stock and now increase the dividend we see ourselves returning very close to the same leverage level that we had at the end of last year. So in one sense, that's really good and gives us that optionality going forward. So what do I expect now looking into '27 and 2028? Well, I mean, I doubt we'll do much by way of change on the dividend in the next 12 months given we've just increased it by a further 17% on top of the increase last year and the year before. So that's -- I think that's like settled for a period of time.

And then going into '27, certainly, my expectation is that we'll probably buy back more stock than we have in 2026. But at the same time, I think we have a willingness to examine further M&A opportunities and feel quite predisposed to doing it albeit it would follow our RMO trying to buy what we think is a fundamentally quality company. and to see whether the combination with Howmet and that company can produce, say, some form of synergized benefits in one way or the other. And so you've taken my temperature is, yes, we absolutely would need to consider further steps. But again, currently in that more bolt-on, we did, let's call it, a couple of billion dollars between the CAM and Brunner, that sort of area, not envisaging at this point, anything that mega large, we could have an epiphany, which I guess we signaled, but at the moment, we don't see that. And I think it's far better. We just continue with our path of trying to build out a company with a high growth rate high margin, good cash flow and income repeat.

This concludes our question-and-answer session as well as our conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

I'm Doug Harned, Bernstein's Global Aerospace and Defense analyst. And I'm thrilled to have back with us today John Plant, Chairman and CEO of Howmet. And with that, we're going to get started here.

So John, I think to start off here, maybe you can just give us a little bit of overview of where Howmet stands right now and what some of the opportunities and challenges you're facing are?

Okay. So first of all, good morning, everybody. Look forward to chatting with Doug today and giving you some insights to Howmet. We seem to be at, I would say, a point where the opportunities do outweigh the challenges at the moment. Having said that, I mean sometimes the opportunities themselves bring challenge in being able to step up to them. We're at this moment in time where in our commercial aerospace side of the business, the backlogs for commercial aircraft are extraordinary highs, and that gives us some feeling of security of improved volumes for the future and with aircraft manufacturers predicting increasing rates.

So that's good and helpful to us in terms of the growth vector for the company. Also in aerospace, the defense budget seemed to be solid. And given the use of aircraft, especially recently, then there appears to be the opportunity for additional spares coming up in the next 2 or 3 years. And then at the same time, given also the use of missiles and the potential for investment in the Golden Dome, then that also is producing another, say, growth opportunity for us. So the aerospace part of our business seems to be well set. And it then turns to the gas turbine part of the business where it seems to be a particularly hot topic these days, given the build-out of data centers and the required improvements in electricity supply to power them.

And I think as everybody knows, is that our position in supplying the turbine blades for the gas turbines as part of electricity supply is very significant. And in fact, our market share is well over 50% globally. And therefore, again, another significant opportunity for growth for us. So those are the, I'll say, the longer-run opportunities facing the company. And we probably have the more, I would say, tactical short-run opportunity of some improvements or maybe bouncing off the bottom this year in terms of our commercial wheel business for commercial trucks both in North America and to some degree, Europe.

So in terms of challenge, the growth of the company presents its challenge in terms of our ability to deploy all of the capital required to step up to these challenges. And at the same time, making sure that we not only deploy the capital, we do it in a very efficient way, introduce the products on time and achieve the volume increases and at the same time, produce a very healthy cash flow. And there's always a little bit of strain between I'm going to say the commitment we have to deliver the cash flow conversion of the company with a long-term metric of 90% of net income while meeting these growth challenges.

Well, let's -- I'd like to continue a little bit on that hot topic of IGT and Power. Your revenues were up 39% in Q1. And if I go back 2 years ago, we weren't even talking about this topic. I mean -- and we've got GE Vernova down the hall here, and I'm trying to get a picture of how you see this growth rate going forward for Howmet because you've talked about going from $1 billion in revenues, up to, say, $2 billion in 3 to 5 years. But if I start to look at what some of the companies involved in gas turbines are talking about, the growth rate looks higher than that. And if you add on pricing, and you add on, I think, maybe more market share, the $2 billion seems like a low number. How should I think about that?

Well, I think you have to break the current revenue down between that's required for OE build and that's required for spares. And just at the moment, both are, I'll say firing on all cylinders in the fact that the existing fleet of turbines is working much harder than expected and, therefore, driving a very significant spares market for us. At the same time, you say everybody wants more in terms of gas turbine production. And so I think it's fair to assume there's a little bit of caution in the way we're thinking about things because this is much more required than just our turbine blades to produce the whole power generation setup.

And so beyond the turbine, you have to have the power gen side of the, I'd say, the equipment, the generation side of it. So I want to be cautious that, to some degree, we ultimately move at the weakest link in that whole supply chain -- and but at the same time, remaining hopeful that maybe the growth could be higher.

Well, I remember when we were here last year, at that point in time, you were talking about basically negotiations underway with 4 companies. And now you've talked about now you're up to like, I think, 6 and maybe a 7. So it seems like you're -- I'm trying to understand your sort of all of those individual companies are expecting a lot of growth, and you seem to be expanding your presence across them as well.

It's been an extraordinary time in the gas turbine business. So maybe sometimes in life, you get a little bit lucky. And to some degree, this feels a little bit of good fortune because while we had expected an increase in our gas turbine business, if you went back maybe 18 months, 2 years ago, we were thinking more like going from a fairly cyclical business to maybe something growing in the mid-single digits to high single digits area, at the best.

For the power side?

For the power side. And obviously, that's not the case today. We're thinking much more boldly about the increases that are coming. And then as we began to think through where we were in terms of the customer set that we have, our anticipation was that we'd see a significant increase in requirements from the large gas turbine manufacturers. So think of that as GE Vernova, think of Siemens, think of Mitsubishi Heavy. And that's where we see the most fundamental part of the demand. As it turns out, we now see that it's also the small and midsized gas turbine manufacturers as well that are requiring a very significant increases in capacity. Some of it driven because they can't get the large gas turbines as a supply shortage. And that's generating the opportunity for banks of the smaller midsized turbines, but also parts of the build-out of the liquid natural gas is also producing a significant demand there for, let's say, gas compression liquefaction and driving of gas towards the LNG terminals.

And so we're actually having, again, demand not just from data centers, but across the board. And because of that lack of capacity being brought to the market by the larger gas turbine manufacturers, it's given the opportunity for us to supply to the likes of the solar sub of Caterpillar or was it Baker Hughes? Or is it even Doosan in Korea and so on. So there's a lot more opportunity, which we hadn't originally thought about when we were conceiving of the demand pattern for the next 2 or 3 years. So it's a long way of saying we've -- because again, we are probably the most significant supplier to each of these customers, then it's giving us a level of further opportunity we haven't planned on.

Well, and you're talking about the signal -- demand signal for the next 2 to 3 years. But when you look at the investments that you need to make to do this, I imagine you have to think about what are we looking at in 5 years? Is this something that will plateau? Or is this something where we can -- you see headlines that almost imply infinite growth here, which I would always be skeptical of. How do you think about structuring deals so that you don't end up over investing in capacity?

That's been the, I'll say, item, which has been most forefront of mind for me in terms of determining to what degree should we capacitize for this opportunity? And first of all, what's the duration of the growth part of the cycle. And so what do we see by way of requirements for utilities, stand-alone data centers, data center clusters and also into the oil and gas sector going forward or even the derivatives for provision of turbines for ships, for example, in the defense industry, and you've seen some of those announcements recently where, again, we supply the parts for turbines for that.

So there's a lot going on. And then the question is, to what degree should we invest and we also have to, as you know, be very cognizant of protecting shareholders' returns and therefore, not overinvesting. So we've also tried to think of it in terms of how do we structure the commercial arrangements with our customers such that we are confident in making those investments. Then also what will be the demand pattern as we get to 2030 and beyond and what's the growth rate looking like both for data center clusters? Or is it now in the provision of electricity to industrial complexes and therefore, the requirements for micro grids, et cetera, et cetera. So there's a lot of thought which has gone into how much we should invest, how should we protect ourselves.

And indeed, since the part that we supply is the wearing part of the turbine so there is a replacement requirement. So I always think of turbine blade just like the brake pads of the turbine industry. So assume that in the next 5 years, the fleet of turbines that are out there in the market, let's assume it's going to be a very significant increase in quantity, maybe almost doubling the existing fleet. And therefore, all of those turbines were producing requirements for spare parts at the turn of the decade into the 2030s. And so in the scenario where maybe OE growth slows or maybe we don't have any growth at all, then my thought is that Howmet should be able to continue to see growth because all of the fleet of turbines, the existing fleet and all the build-out over the next few years are all going to require replacement parts, which will give us another vector of growth, which will either compound what we have or a substitute and therefore, we should see continued growth and therefore, giving some comfort to the level of investment that we're considering.

I want to jump over to the aero part of engine products. But just in thinking about this, when you look at the growth, can you give us a sense of how large you expect the power portion of Engine Products to be as a percentage of your engine business in 5 years? I know that's hard because the aero side is growing rapidly as well.

Yes. It's a bit like predicting how big our spares business will be relative to OE. And because in recent times, you've actually seen the percentage increase in spares revenues increase at a higher rate than the OE production. And the question is, how will that continue. And the answer is it really depends upon the OE growth as well as the -- so the build of aircraft required for engines, the natural recycler replacement parts, plus also what I call the bubble, which is the fitment of the fleet of engines which have been seeing early life failure for some of those parts. And then you compare and contrast that to the growth in gas turbines, the large gas turbines, which again is going to be dictated by the weakest link in the chain, but then the requirement for spare parts. So it's really difficult to handicap each of these individual segments to say what's the percentage increase in spares in gas turbines versus OE versus spares in commercial aero, defense aero and also the OE build.

And so it may not sound the most sophisticated responses to you. But the answer is, maybe I don't sweat it too much because the only thing I know is it's more and do I really care which -- where the growth comes from? I feel as though it's parsing out, am I going to about 20% in there or 25% of that light. I don't need to work it out just now.

Well, on the OE Aero side, I mean if I go back a couple of years and talked about this a number of times, but this -- Howmet used to be viewed primarily as an OE supplier on engines. But obviously, the aftermarket became much more important. But now Boeing is now looking at going up to 47 a month on the MAX this summer. We'll hear from Kelly later. Where do you stand relative to Boeing in terms of, say, a burn down in inventory and ultimately aligning with the rate of growth. Obviously, that funnels through GE as well, but...

Yes. So right now, there's not a lot of inventory that's lying around either in completed engines nor in parts availability. So pretty much our customers will take everything that we can make in the support of their ramp. And if not, then there's the sufficient backlog through the MRO shops for spares requirements at the moment, again, that the thing which is not forefront of mind at all, is there a demand issue. So with the assumption there's little inventory in the spares chains, little inventory in the OE chain, then there's nothing to worry about on engine parts for that on that side.

And that's true for both Boeing and Airbus for like LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B.

Yes. I mean, where we are at the moment is widebody we expect to show signs of growth coming up hopefully this year, which has been a long time coming and maybe into next year, but again, as you see, narrowbody is also requiring inputs of parts because Boeing want to produce more, and that would be great. Airbus also want to produce more, but have struggled a little bit recently. And as a well-publicized information regarding the supply of one of the engine manufacturers into Airbus. Again, part supply. And we all know that we're in this changeover period. So last year, we changed over on the LEAP range of engines to the improved, I'll say, generation improvement on the LEAP-1A. We have yet to make that change and to see that changes coming through on the LEAP-1B.

And of course, to date on the GTF Advantage, again, we are producing parts now, but none have yet made it to the outside market. And so again, a lot of change and a lot of throughput is required as we bring those changes into being in '26 and '27.

Now on these new plane designs. So how do you manage the timing of the ramp. As you said, sort of the next one that's right in play now is on the GTF advantage. And so that ramp, I mean they just got certification for the engine on the aircraft. And so like when do you ramp up and how do you manage the changeover from the prior blades to the new ones?

Yes. It's difficult for us to give precise dates about when changeovers will occur. We saw on the 1A that we were prepared -- I think you saw me quote in at the end of '24, we had put in place 500 engine sets of parts on the 1A changeover. And so if I start with 1B, we're in that build phase. We're producing tools for capacity. We're looking at the changeover dates for production, while also knowing that we're going to continue to provide and manufacture the existing technology. And just for your information, we're also still manufacturing the existing technology on the 1A as well. And as I think you know, when an engine comes in for overhaul, if all the blades are changed, and you can go to a new generation, but if only certain of them are, then you can't mix and match on the same disk and therefore, we supply both new generation and old generation and the older generation is into the service market.

We're going to go through that on the 1B this year. And then for the advantage, we're going to be increasing production every quarter during the course of this year. When it actually makes its way to the market and where will the market see first in the OE area or the aftermarket area. That's not for us to determine. There won't be enough I will say, provision of parts to do both at the same time is our view. And so I think we're actually going to see a far higher production in 2027 of the advantage level of parts. And so -- and reaching much higher volumes in the second half of '27, while still providing all of the existing current GTF advantage parts all the way through.

Because this would also involve -- I mean, they have this whole hot section plus program too, to do upgrades. So you've sort of got normal MRO, that program and OE right, all.

That is going to be a very significant increase in requirements for us as we go through this next, let's say, 18 months.

Is it fair to say that on each of these, when you go to the new generation blade that you would have higher pricing, better margins and more share.

I never really comment on...

I know you don't want to comment on that.

I just loosely refer to it as a higher content because of increased sophistication. So if we're going to produce turbine blades that can exist at fundamentally higher temperatures. So think -- these are not extra 100 or 200 Degrees Fahrenheit. We're talking about hundreds of degrees of improvement in thermal capabilities. And so to produce that level of part, it's another generation of sophistication. And the way I'd like to think of it in the advantage areas that some aspects of the technologies that we developed for the engines for the F-35 as an example. Some of those technologies are being deployed for the advantage level of turbine. So again, to make sure that there is a significant buffer between we know what the temperature of the engine may see because, again, it's obviously a lot of testing has been done, but then there's the real-world application.

I have heard some frustration from your customer universe that maybe because you guys are too good, but that you're sort of the main source here and that they would love to have more options. And we've seen Pratt, they have this whole effort in Asheville, where they're working on doing some of their own blades. How do you view the potential threat of new entrants in this market or people in-sourcing like Pratt's trying to do? What is that -- what impact, if any, does that have on your thinking?

Well, obviously, we need to always think of what the competitor? Or is it customer -- a competitor might do. We do keep a fairly close eye on what the capabilities might be in those new areas of potential source. And with that, displaying the full level of knowledge about the situation is these things are not easy to make because if they were. And I guess that we have a lot of people doing them. So I suspect that we could be sitting here a decade from now and still finding that people might be struggling to produce the economics of the turbine blade essentially go to the question of yield. And the difference between, let's say, getting a 70% yield and a 40% yield is all of the pricing and all the profit that exists in a turbine blade application.

Now you've had very strong margin growth. I mean your EBITDA margins. You've been taking them up close to 300 basis points each year for the past couple of years in engine products, what's enabling those increases, I think you were at 36% in Q1. Where can you go from here? Because it does seem like you have opportunities you've described that you're very well positioned for.

It's always difficult to talk about where you're going to go because it's -- it would be a forecast for the future. And as you know, I've always been very reluctant to comment on what the future might hold by the way of margins because to some degree, to a large degree, things are outside of your direct control. We don't know what inflation rates will be in the second half of this year yet and therefore, the degree of recovery and therefore, dampening effect that might have on margins, et cetera, or margin growth. So I never want to assume a level of knowledge or prescience that could predict the future that accurately. And so -- and you can say, well, some of it because I don't feel like I need to do it.

And secondly, I think it's a little bit foolish to do that. But I think the most important part of it is, as we continue to strive for the improvements in our manufacturing space and improve our yields and drive through these improvements in technology, which are very significant in either improving the robustness of engines or if not producing the opportunity for further fuel efficiency, then those are very valuable to the industry. And we just want to play our part in that and gain the appropriate value for that.

Well, also still within engine products. So defense has also been quite good for you. And our assumption is F-35 is the biggest single driver there. If we look at F-35, the aftermarkets, I mean the cycles on the F-35 drive a pretty strong aftermarket. Is it fair to think of growth there, in some sense, proportional to the fleet size in F-35 if we're trying to predict that.

I actually think it's more than proportional to the fleet size. I hate to use the word exponential. But to some degree, it does apply. So if you went back and looked at the size of the fleet, let's say, in 2021 and then looked at the spares level, I don't mean spares packages provided with the OE sets to, let's say to foreign governments, which that's a feature of it. But spares, driven by usage. Then our, I'll say, loose prediction had been by 2025 that we would see the production of spares for the turbine to exceed the OE production, which is actually what did occur during 2025. And then when we look forward to, let's say, 2030 so you put another 5 years of production of 150, 160 F-35s into the market.

And so, you're looking at, let's say, another 800-plus aircraft. And then all of those obviously are going to require spares and the existing fleet, which is being built from, let's say, the last 5 years are going to require spares and so my thought at the moment is the -- without going through what -- exactly what our models predict because there's also numbers are flying hours, which is something which we don't control. And there's been a lot of flying hours recently, given the conflicts that are there. Then the thought is may be the spares demand will double again by 2030. And assuming this aircraft is in production through the 2030. So I think at the moment through is it 2038 or '39 another 10 years of 150 if it's flat production or who knows exactly what it will be by 2035 because we will be hopefully doing the F-47 and whatever the Navy plane requirements are. So all of that will be feeding in as well. So my thought is the spares demand is going to continue to grow and will be very significant as we go through the 2030s. 2040s, 2050s, 2060s.

I don't -- we don't model the 2060.

Yes, I thought you might, but things that might be beyond you and I talking on this stage together.

You don't plan to be here on the 2060 conference.

I haven't thought about it recently, let's say, but it's possible that it might not be the case.

Okay. Well, me too. So we'll see. So switching over to fastening systems. So you've had some really strong revenue growth. But we've sort of been waiting for this wide-body ramp to occur. And it seems like you've had this growth before we've seen the 787 and A350 growth really move up. What's driving your fasteners growth.

There's been multiple strands to that growth. I mean, first of all, we've probably incremented our share in various areas. It's been a little bit because of the SPS fire, which occurred with a lot of competitors, there's been a little bit because when we renewed our contract with Airbus this year, we took a little bit of share. And we are also trying to develop, I would say, new products that we bring through and look to put those on additional things on the aircraft. So when we put a level of technology, which may surprise you if you took us, let's say, naming the platform exactly where we've put a new range of fasteners are, let's say, the front part, let's call it the nose area of the aircraft. And then we're marching down each part of the fuselage, then that again is content and value increase to us. So we've been trying to do that a lot in our fastener business and seeking to do more of it, and we actually got many things in development right now.

So has that expansion you're talking about, has that been primarily on narrow-bodies?

I will say more narrowbody than widebody. We have some developments for new things in the composite area where we're looking at widebodies today, but in particular, for the next-generation aircraft as well. So we're trying to position ourselves and doing this year and the next couple of years, such that to be the selections aren't anything that might occur in any form of narrow-body, I'll say, changes to come or new aircraft to come.

We should see widebody production rates because we're seeing at Boeing right now, those production rates are starting to go up. A350, it's been a little slow recently, but that should go up rapidly if you look at what Airbus is projecting. That seems like given that those are more -- those are higher-value fasteners for you. And the volumes are high. I mean, should we expect to see a kind of break upward as we see the ramps take off?

I've been thinking for like 2 or 3 years that we might see, I'll say, the widebody begin to start and therefore, there might be a mix effect. But here we are in '26, and it hasn't happened to date. And I'm not thinking particularly great things for '26 either. And we've seen recent announcement that maybe the A350 might not increase so much as we thought because of some additional production problems. So it's best not to get ahead of yourself, but come the day where Airbus is producing 12 A350s a month or maybe come the day where Boeing is making in the teens again for the 787, then that will be positive for us. Now how that growth is going to compare to narrow-body ultimately, who knows.

But should they get there. And so whenever you decide what the narrow-body production is 100, 120, 140 aircraft a month or whatever number you choose, the percentage increase theoretically on widebody should be higher, but it's a long time coming.

Yes. But Boeing, I mean, they intend to be 10 a month by the end of this year on the 787. So that one seems -- that growth path seems pretty real right now.

That's not our underlying assumption that we've given for our embedded revenues for this year. So should Boeing produce 10 a month. That will be absolutely great. Look forward to it. But I think when we gave a guide for the end of this year, we were thinking maybe we get to or they get to more like 8 a month by the end of the year, but again not something, which we have anything, we're just able to respond and support them as they need so there won't be a problem in terms of rate or production coming from Howmet for those fasteners.

It does. But should they be successful in getting there, you're able to support those higher rates?

Yes. And I would like to.

Okay. That's good. And again, on your margins in Fastening Systems, they were 31.8% in Q1. Again, these have gone steadily up. I know we don't want to predict inflation or anything like that. But what's been helping you take the margins up in Fastening Systems? And what are the things you're looking at that potentially could add to that?

Yes. I think that one of the things I was most pleased with over the last year. So if you looked at 2025 was if you look at the revenue increase and the volume increase that underpin that, then we were able to essentially do all of that without adding any people whatsoever to the business. And so the level of throughput that we've been able to achieve has been extraordinary. And some of it is down to automation. Some of it's down to introducing newer equipment that can say, collapse these numbers of stages of production into, let's say, going from maybe 8 stages down to 4 stages of production as an example, and therefore, making the whole production system more efficient.

So between again some content, some production efficiency and some price has been beneficial. Now in terms of how the margin develops in the future course, as you know, we are bringing on an acquisition which we closed on the 6th of April. And so when we blend those 2 together, then obviously, we're taking some an entity, which is more like in that, let's say, 20% margin range to add that together. So that will obviously dampen those margins. But then our plan is, obviously, to bring that up and hopefully continue the improvement. So that's what we're seeking to do over the next, let's say, 18 months, 2 years.

So on the CAM acquisition, can you talk a little bit about what attracted you to that and how you expect to integrate it and improve it?

So we've had the opportunity of looking at 2 or 3 fastener acquisitions in the last year. And one we looked at and decided not to proceed. One, we decided it was not of great interest to us. But CAM felt to us as though it was a better property altogether. It gave us the opportunity of not only further increasing and improving our fastener business, but also the adjacencies of fittings and couplings and the things which we wanted to increase our revenues significantly in. So part of it, we also thought on the -- when we looked at inside that manufacturing operations that compared to what else we've seen, it seemed to be have a better order and so a base that we could further improve from with some of the manufacturing techniques and investments that Howmet does. And so that was an opportunity.

Secondly, we wanted to also see what I believe to be the holy grail of doing an acquisition, which is to gain some revenue synergy. And so we thought that given the scale of the Howmet's sales force and contact points in the industry, which is way beyond commercial aerospace, that would give us the opportunity of pulling through some of the CAM products to the customers for more than they were able to. And so we're optimistic about doing that. We're also optimistic that some of the CAM product that we'll be able to take through our distribution network that we've built. So if you go back to something that we did in 2021, which used to create a separate distribution arm for Howmet is that we've taken that from like $50 million to $350 million over that period of time.

And the thought is that we'll be able to feed some of those CAM products through that distributing capability, whereby we have both the manufacturing and also the distribution side of it. So that's what we think of that we can gain the opportunity of selling more through our network and also through our distribution capabilities, plus obviously, again, can we make further improvements in productivity in the CAM operations.

Now switching over to Engineered Structures. This is one where I remember a couple of years ago, it was one we talked about, that wasn't really your main focus of investment. The returns look better on the other engine products, fastening systems. But the performance there has steadily improved over the last couple of years. Can you take us through the most important growth drivers for that business?

Yes. I think, first of all, I'd like to comment on the margin before I go to growth. So let's call it, from 2019 where there's been an oversupply situation for some of the structural parts into the Lockheed F-35 program plus post COVID, some of the declining widebody in international travel, and it was a tough scenario for that business. And I felt that we were doing reasonably well in that scenario demand structure to hold on to 14% margins. I was quite bold in that I normally don't talk about, as you know, future margin, but I said I think this is conceptually a high-teens business. And as you saw, we broke through and achieved 2 at the front of the margin profile of that business in 2025. And I said our mission was to try to hold that -- hold on to it. And you've seen we've been able to do that in '26 and in fact slightly so we're just holding on to it. And feel in a good situation.

So thematically, I've been more interested in driving the margin and at the expense of revenue. And so there's been thrifting of product withdrawal from certain segments, sale of a couple of entities. You've seen sale of company we did in the U.K. called [ Vallin ], one in the U.S. in March, which was Savannah, and also, we've chosen selectively to move out of certain contracts. In the growing industry, my thought was, we can still grow, and you have seen growth, but not at a pace that you would have thought, but it's been a margin focus. And so now I feel as though we've done a lot of the heavy lifting towards that. And so we have a business which has a better underlying situation in that I think the growth rate has the opportunity to increase the margin rate hold or further improve.

And so we've taken this, let's say, 2 or 3 years to reprofile where that business sits in the grand scheme of things. And so having the business now in the 20% margin profile and a better future growth pattern to it is one that I increasingly begin to like but it's been heavy lifting and taking some tough choices along the way.

We don't have a lot of time left here, but I wanted to touch on something you mentioned earlier and also on the earnings call. And that is opportunities in the missiles area, which is clearly an area of high growth. And where do those fit into your thinking?

Previously, missiles have not been the highest focus area for us. We were probably more interested in, I'll say, the structural fastener part of drones. But more recently, we've seen, I'll say, the long run opportunity where some of the larger missile systems are requiring small turbines now. And certainly, for the -- I'll say, collaborative combat aircraft, the unmanned aircraft that would fly alongside an F-35 or an F-47. I think clearly those are turbine based and so we've spent time developing the parts for many of these small turbines that you've heard some engine manufacturers refer to and trying to make sure that we have the ability to support the ones we choose to support.

And so far, the 3 base engines that we understand which have been selected by the Department of Defense or Department of War, then I think those are all future Howmet parts on them. And so it's not revenue for 2026 per se, I mean, some development prototypes, but positioning the company for to support that segment. And I think it will show significant growth in the next, let's say, 3, 5, 10 years. And so I think it's an important thing that we do. More immediately, in the missile area, of course, a lot of missiles have been used recently and so whether it be -- where it's now that we see an increased demand to replenish some of those or whether it's for Golden Dome applications. So if you think about missiles like the PAC-3 or the Patriot missile or whether it's the THAAD system, then each of those are -- we are looking at significantly increased volume requirements and working that through at the moment.

And so that's going to also produce a level of revenue improvement in -- not necessarily that much this year, but '27, '28, '29 to produce say replenish stocks and also say, for Golden Dome.

Well, kind of to wrap up here. When you put all this together and you think of your guidance as to cash -- free cash flow of $1.75 billion this year. How should we think about what could take that higher, what might be a risk on that? And how you plan to deploy it?

I think the first order and first priority for us has been to make sure that we can invest for the future growth opportunities. And you've seen us take CapEx up from the $300 million level through $400 million, $500 million we're talking about this year. And I think '27 is going to be a higher number, still. And so that really is -- has been the most important thing we've been thinking about in terms of supporting that future organic growth of the company. And then beyond that, we've looked at how much we should use by way for share buyback, how much for acquisition? And how do those interplay with each other? What's the relative returns for shareholders of them and at the moment, we feel as though we're able to take the opportunity because when an acquisition comes up, you don't get to choose when they come up.

It's what the sellers are willing to sell and we've made two, as you know, the CAM acquisition, the Brunner acquisition said we'll do those. At the same time, at this point of the year, we're still buying shares back at a higher rate than we did the previous year. So we're able to do that as well. So far, we've not had to face any buying choice as one or the other, we're able to do both and both to an increasing extent. So we're kicking up CapEx. We've been able to complete acquisitions. We are kicking up the share buyback opportunities and still supporting a dividend. And so all of those things are being done. So at the moment, we're not trading one off against the other, it could have some -- the margin, but it's all good.

Okay. Well, John, thank you very much. We'll end it here, but really great to see you.

Nice to see you, too. Thank you.

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Earnings First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session. I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS. As noted in today's materials, we have removed the term excluding special items from the titles of non-GAAP financial measures as well as simplify the definitions of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBIT.

While the titles and definitions have been simplified, current and prior period calculations have not changed. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Thanks, PT, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Howmet first quarter earnings call. Let's move to the highlights on Slide 4. Howmet had a very strong start to 2026. We delivered in many ways. Sales were $2.31 billion, EBITDA of $740 million and earnings per share of $1.22. The EBITDA margin rate was 32%, and this margin was an increase of 320 basis points over the equivalent quarter last year. Cash generation was $359 million, reflecting strong earnings and continued improvement in working capital efficiency. This enabled share buyback of $300 million during the quarter and a further $150 million in April.

Capital expenditure continued at a high rate, supporting the future organic growth rate of the company. Brunner acquisition was completed in February from cash on hand. The CAM acquisition closed on the 6th of April using $1.65 billion of new debt and part of the proceeds of the disposal of the Savannah U.S. disk operation at the end of March. The sale of Savannah tidied up another part of the Structures portfolio, which was an isolated U.S. disk operation for which there were no plans of expansion given its market position. The acquisition of CAM expands our reach and our portfolio of offerings to the nontraditional fasteners, such as fluid fittings, couplings, heat shields and additional latches. This acquisition investment in the Fasteners business reflects our strong philosophy of allocating capital to the better performing areas of our business.

Excluding the $1.8 billion used to fund the CAM acquisition, we entered the second quarter with just over $600 million of cash on hand, having completed these portfolio moves and with a resulting net leverage of 1.6x. This leverage, we expect to bring down significantly as we move through the balance of 2026.

Patrick will provide further color on markets and the individual business segments in the following -- this part of the discussion. Meanwhile, the comment I would make is that margin performance of each business unit showed progress sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2025. I'll now pass across to Patrick.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Please move to Slide 5. Another solid quarter for Howmet with most end markets continuing to be healthy. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Revenue was up 19% in the first quarter, an acceleration from the 15% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Commercial Aerospace growth was strong at 20%, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and underpinned by the record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions.

Commercial Aerospace engine spares were up 48% in the first quarter with both legacy and next-generation engine spares contributing. Defense Aerospace growth continued at 10%, including healthy spares activity. Commercial Transportation revenue was up 13%, driven by the pass-through of higher aluminum costs and tariffs. On a volume basis, wheels was down 11% as the market down cycle continued into the quarter.

We continue to outperform the market with Howmet's premium products. Gas Turbine growth remained very strong with revenue up 39%. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. Within Howmet's markets, we had a robust spares growth. The combination of Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Gas Turbine spares was up 36% to approximately $520 million in the first quarter. Spares revenue continues to grow and represents a larger portion of our overall revenue now at 23% in the first quarter of 2026 versus 21% in the full year 2025 and 11% in the full year 2019.

In summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Gas Turbines with all markets up double digits and the Commercial Transportation market beginning to improve. Moving to Slide 6, starting with the P&L. First quarter revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share were all above the high end of guidance. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 19%, the strongest quarterly growth rate for the company since the first quarter of 2023.

EBITDA continued to outpace revenue growth, up 32%. EBITDA margin increased 320 basis points to a record 32%. Incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was solid at 49% year-over-year. Earnings per share were $1.22, up a robust 42% compared to the first quarter of 2025. Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. Our strong balance sheet provided the foundation for the CAM and Brunner acquisitions that we closed during the first half of the year.

The quarter end cash balance was $2.4 billion. This included $1.65 billion added through debt issuance to fund the CAM acquisition as well as proceeds from the $230 million sale of the Savannah Disk Forging Facility. I will speak more about these transactions momentarily. Free cash flow was $359 million, a record for a first quarter. Net debt to trailing EBITDA continued to improve to 0.9x prior to the CAM acquisition that we closed on April 6.

Howmet's improved leverage and strong free cash flow profile were reflected in Fitch's Q1 upgrade from BBB+ to A-, now 4 notches into investment grade. Liquidity remains strong with an undrawn $1 billion revolver complemented by a $1 billion commercial paper program. The commercial paper program was utilized for the first time in the first quarter of 2026 to support the CAM acquisition with $450 million being drawn as of March 31.

Turning to capital deployment. CapEx was $94 million. The majority of CapEx was in the Engine Products segment as we continue to invest for growth in the aerospace and gas turbine markets. Investments are backed by customer contracts. In the quarter, we repurchased $300 million of common stock at an average price of $230 per share. We repurchased an additional $150 million in April at an average price of $246 per share. Q1 was the 20th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. As of today, the remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.05 billion.

We continue to be confident in strong future free cash flow. We paid a first quarter dividend of $0.12 per share. We expect the dollar value of dividend distributions in 2026 will be higher than 2025. Finally, turning to M&A. We completed 2 transactions in the first quarter and 1 early in the second quarter. First, we acquired Brunner, a Fastener business based in Wisconsin for approximately $120 million in cash on February 6. The integration process is on track.

Second, we sold our Disk Forging operation in Savannah, Georgia for $230 million in cash on March 31. We expect this divestiture to be margin accretive to the Structures segment. Third, we closed the previously announced CAM Fastener acquisition on April 6 for approximately $1.8 billion. To finance the CAM acquisition on March 3, we issued $1.2 billion of new notes in addition to $450 million in borrowings from our commercial paper program.

The proceeds from the Savannah divestiture also supported the CAM purchase. The weighted average cost of debt for the CAM transaction is approximately [indiscernible] now let's move to Slide 7 to cover the segment results for the first quarter. The Engine Products team delivered another excellent quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 29% to $1.25 billion. Commercial Aerospace was up 31% and Defense Aerospace was up 13%.

The gas turbines market was up 39%. Demand continues to be strong across all our engines markets with very healthy engine spares volume. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 44% to $458 million. EBITDA margin increased 400 basis points to 36.6%, while absorbing approximately 235 net new employees in the quarter, positioning us well for continued growth.

Please move to Slide 8. Fastening Systems had another strong quarter. Revenue increased 14% to $471 million. Commercial Aerospace was up 17% and Defense Aerospace up 21%. Commercial Transport which represents approximately 11% of revenue was down 4%. EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 18% to $150 million despite the modest recovery of wide-body aircraft builds, along with the weakness in Commercial Transportation. EBITDA margin increased 100 basis points to 31.8% as the teams continued to drive commercial and operational performance.

Moving to Slide 9. Engineered Structures operational performance continues to improve. Revenue decreased 3% to $294 million as we continue to rationalize products and focus on higher margin and stronger return opportunities. Segment EBITDA was flat at $66 million. EBITDA margin increased 40 basis points to 22.4% as we continue to optimize the structures manufacturing footprint and product mix to maximize profitability.

Finally, Slide 10. Forged Wheels delivered another solid quarter. Revenue was up 17% as an 11% decrease in volume was more than offset by higher aluminum cost and tariff pass-through and favorable foreign currency impacts. EBITDA was strong at $90 million, an increase of 32% despite a challenging market. EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 30.5%. The unfavorable margin impact of lower volumes and dilutive higher pass-through was more than offset by flexing costs, a strong product mix driven by premium products and favorable foreign currency.

Lastly, before turning it back to John, I want to highlight a couple of items. One, in the first quarter, we moved the titanium alloy production operation from the Engine Products segment to the Engineered Structures segment for better operational alignment. The comparable periods for Engine Products and Engineered Structures have been recast to reflect the new alignment. You can find these figures on Slides 20 and 21. Two, in April, we issued our annual environmental, social and governance report, highlighting the meaningful progress we made in 2025 sustainability. The full report is available in the Investors section on our website. Now let me turn the call back to John.

Thanks, Patrick, and let's move to Slide 11. Let me turn to the outlook for the company and firstly note that we have ongoing uncertainty in relation to the situation in Iran. The outcome and consequences have yet to be fully determined. Having said that, the oil price shock is rippling around the world, along with other fossil fuel impacts.

The case for higher inflation is set, although its rise and forward trajectory is yet to be determined, along with the effects on global interest rates and currency exchange rates. While acknowledging all of this, we do see a clear path to an improved economic outcome in 2026 for Howmet and future growth of revenues into 2027. The details of our updated 2026 guide will be set out momentarily. First, let's discuss Commercial Aerospace. Both narrow-body and wide-body aircraft build rates are planned to increase. And this is expected to be the case throughout the year, although the trajectory going into 2027 is yet to be determined.

Airline traffic has held up well through April, although some airlines have drawn up lower volume contingency plans. The large aircraft backlog should help to underpin current build rates. The outlook for spares continues to be strong as MRO slots are also backlogged, though again, there may be an effect to be felt from the Iranian conflict. Aircraft retirements, unused serviceable material and the longer-term effects are being considered, but the outlook remains for continued strong growth and that persists into the future.

Defense sales continue to be healthy for both new aircraft and spares, especially given the recent escalation of aerial operations in the Middle East as well as the part supplies to missiles. At the same time, we're expanding efforts on new programs, most notably in the drone and collaborative combat aircraft programs. Naturally, this does not really affect much by way of revenue in 2026, but it's very important for the future years. The gas turbines market is also very active. Sales are expected to grow both in 2026 and into the future.

We provided a sales demand outlook during the last earnings call for a doubling of demand in the 3- to 5-year period. We are not updating this currently, although the picture continues to look very bright. The update today relates to customer contract provisions where the negotiations regarding demand and capital investment have now been finalized for 6 out of 7 customers, which is an increase from the 4 I commented on in the last earnings call.

At the same time, further new orders and increased projected volumes are possible, dependent upon all of the other componentry that's required for a full IGT installation, and this is for both small, medium and indeed large IGT builds. Starting in the second quarter, the commercial truck market has begun to strengthen despite the diesel price increases, albeit our outlook remains cautious until we see an improved and more stable macroeconomic outlook.

Moving to specific numbers. Commercial aircraft build rates are seen to be increasing, but we remain slightly behind projected rates. We have the rate for the 737 at an average of 42 per month for the year, on the 787 currently 7 per month, rising to 8 per month by the fourth quarter. On the Airbus A320, 62 per month and the Airbus A350 at 6 per month. The past few months were very active regarding the Howmet portfolio and the guide we provided reflects these changes.

We closed 2 transactions in the Fastener segment, namely CAM and Brunner, and we also divested the U.S. Disk business in Savannah, which is part of the Structures segment. These transactions followed our stated strategy of allocating capital to the businesses that demonstrate higher growth potential and higher margin potential. The net effect of these transactions will add approximately $275 million of revenue to the remainder of 2026 and about $60 million of EBITDA.

The EPS effect in 2026 is insignificant due to the increased interest expense. There is expected to be a positive earnings per share impact starting in 2027. Our Q2 guide numbers are revenue of $2.4 billion, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA of $765 million, plus or minus $5 million; earnings per share of $1.23, plus or minus $0.01, and these are incrementals of just about 51%. Our full year guide numbers are revenue of $9.65 billion, plus or minus $75 million; EBITDA of $3.06 billion, plus or minus $35 million; earnings per share of $4.94, plus or minus $0.06 and free cash flow of $1.75 billion, plus or minus $50 million, and that's after increasing our capital expenditure once again.

It's noteworthy that our full year economic -- sorry, our full year revenue growth guide, excluding the impact of M&A, rises from 10% to 14%. So again, an increase over and above that, which we said in February. In summary, we started 2026 in a very healthy fashion, and the guidance numbers reflect that increase in confidence for the year. And at the same time, we do recognize the increased uncertainties around the macroeconomic outlook. I'll stop now and turn the meeting over to questions.

[Operator Instructions] And today's first question comes from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

John, can you walk through in a bit more detail as to what factors drove the step function change in the Commercial Aerospace growth at Engine Products in the quarter? And then related to that, is Engine Products currently seeing much growth benefit from GTF Advantage/Hot Section Plus or LEAP-1B Maverick shipments? Or is that all still largely in front of you?

Okay. So first of all, the Engine revenue increase is above aircraft build in the first quarter for sure. Some of it clearly reflects that we need to be ahead of future volume increases. And as you know, that the aircraft manufacturers want to raise rates during the course of the year. So there's some anticipation of that.

I think the second point would be there's been very little [ by way of available ] inventory in engine build. I think everything was thrown out increasing both LEAP and GTF production in 2025 and so there was very little. And so for us, then again, seeing strong demand to some degree, catch up. In addition to that, I'd point to there is some share increase. I'd point to the fact that there is some price increase. And then finally, it shouldn't be underestimated that the Spares business was very strong.

So whereas the overall spares increase for the company was 35% plus, it was actually 45%, more like 48%, in fact, in the first quarter. So if you put strong spares along with the aircraft build, the anticipated build, the share, the price, there's a lot of very positive things happening for us in the Engine business. In terms of the question or the part of the question you asked regarding GTF and then the changeover for the LEAP from Turkey to Maverick, let me deal with, say, the GTF first. In the first quarter, there was a fairly small amount of GTF production.

I think during last year, I commented that we're running at about 6 engine sets a month in the second half. That's increased during the first quarter, but it's going to increase again significantly as we go through the balance of this year. So my expectation is that we'll be providing a full production of the legacy GTF product and then increasing GTF Advantage products as we go through this year.

And I think as you know, Scott, those will have a higher content and then therefore, higher value. That production rate increase will actually continue into 2027. So 2027 is going to be a much bigger year, I think, for the GTF Advantage than 2026. But you are going to see a steady climb throughout this year as we bring further [ rate tooling ] to bear. And as you know, the GTF Advantage has now had both certifications at the customer and from the regulatory agencies.

In terms of the Maverick, that production is just starting for the LEAP-1B. So it's underway. Again, volumes will be increasing during the second quarter and then more in Q3 and Q4, but it won't be changed over until the second half of the year with, again, a date to be determined for the exact month of changeover. But we do see, say, the LEAP-1B changing in the back end of the year and certainly, I think before the turn of the year into 2027. So for the first part, we'll be doing the existing turbine blades and then increasingly make that changeover such that by, let's say, Q3 and certainly by Q4, we'll be fully changed over is my expectation.

And the next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

So John, a big picture question for you. How should we think about -- how IGT is going to go for you all over time, kind of given the contracts that you're signing, the CapEx that is being invested, the hyperscaler spend? And then ultimately, how does that compete with your Aerospace business? Because it seems like the hyperscalers are competing against the engine guys for similar assets and supply chains. How are you thinking about that?

Okay. IGT is a big subject at the moment, a big subject for us for sure and trying to, I'm going to say, feel our way through to the right outcome for the company. It's clearly an opportunity to deploy capital for increased organic growth. At the same time, we just want to make sure that we're not getting ahead of ourselves. And we do see a continuing bright future for it such that we don't end up with a period of overinvestment and over-capacitization because that would not be a good outcome for us.

So what we've been doing is to truly understand as best we can the market dynamics of what the hyperscalers are really needing and paying close attention to build-out of data centers and just the underlying growth anyway, excluding AI, which is just a function of just fundamentally a huge increase in data and data storage required around the world. And then on top of that, the increased use and use cases for the application of artificial intelligence, which is you know there's a huge amount of money, maybe $700 billion being invested this year.

I am trying to assess when all of that is required and what capacities will need to be brought online. And indeed, what are the alternatives for electricity production as we go through the next few years. Our assessment is that natural gas is fundamental to that build-up because of the, I'll say, ability to have fast acting and to underpin any form of renewable energy and also as a baseload provision as well. So we're confident that for the next 3 years, 5 years that, that growth is clearly there.

The tick up of investments by the hyperscalers. I mean you see numbers, let's say, going from maybe Microsoft saying they're going to go from $125 billion to $185 billion or then Google matches it, then Amazon talks about $200 billion. And so clearly, the amount of investment is enormous and probably still not yet reflected in the current demand pattern that we're seeing through our IGT customers. At the same time, for us, we have to consider what happens to 2030 through the balance of this decade into the following decade and having really detailed meetings with those large IGT customers of what turbines that they expect to make and that -- which they want to invest in new products compared to making more of the same, which is a very live topic at the moment.

And indeed, what their own capacities are and what the demand pattern looks like through, let's say, 2032, 2034, et cetera. And so -- and while we're evaluating all that, we're also looking at the smaller and midsized turbines, which are also required because sometimes data center installations cannot get electricity sufficiently from utilities or indeed from their own large-scale gas turbine availability. So banks of smaller and midsized turbines are required. And so evaluating all of that and then also the fact that it's probably likely that insufficient electricity production will be provided in the, let's say, the decade as we see it beyond 2030.

So for major industrial complexes, we see stand-alone microgrids being required for, say, small- and medium-sized turbines. So again, a very healthy demand pattern. And everybody, basically the word of the -- I was going to say, month, quarter, you could call it year, the answer is more.

And so we are trying to meet that demand, not necessarily trying to add everybody's demand together and say because everybody expecting all of it to result in those market shares but also to invest at a rate that makes sense to us and also underpin that with commercial agreements, again, which makes sense and trying to provide, I'll say, corridors of security for the Howmet investors.

So there's a lot going on. You've seen the kickup in capital expenditures. I mean, if we were, I don't know, $450 million, plus or minus last year. We've talked about, I think, the last earnings call, a midpoint of $470 million, but trending towards the top end. We're seeing more like now this year, $500 million of CapEx, and those increases really do reflect the increased investments that we're making in the gas turbine market.

And my current expectation is that 2027 is going to go higher. But at the same time, we're not spending this money and trashing our cash flow at all is that we have already guided to a higher CapEx and a higher cash flow number and still maintaining our long-term commitment to that 90% conversion of net income. So we're trying to do everything. And I think I maybe said something quite bold on the last call, which is we're trying to do it all. And at the moment, I say we do have the cash flows to largely do it all between maintaining really a great leverage position, increasing our CapEx and also meeting the -- some of the exciting parts of the market demand picture of which gas turbines is particularly active at the moment.

And you heard me say on the call earlier in my remarks that we've now reached agreements with 6 of 7 major customers and -- with one more to go, which is a very significant customer to -- so hopefully complete during the balance of the second quarter. So it's interesting, exciting, but at the same time, we're not trying to get carried away and do something which would not put us in a good position. And we've been very clear on that in the discussions with our customers.

The next question is from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

John, you've given a pretty interesting growth outlook here for several of your end markets. But I'm wondering how you feel about the ability of your supply chain to deliver sufficient material, especially on, say, things like rare earths and also the outlook for staffing, whether you're getting enough quality people.

Okay. Let me deal with input materials broadly and then rare earth specifically before moving on to human capital. For the most part, we -- the metals that we use in our Turbine-blade business and Structural-casting business and the Structure segments, we get the base metal. So we're buying from smelters and traders so that we will buy the base nickel or cobalt or whatever. And so we feel fairly secure of that and have a pretty good view of country of origin and security stocks around all base metals. So I feel quite comfortable there.

During last year, I gave a picture about -- I think I called out 3 rare earths and tried to describe the fact we had a year supply of 2 of them plus inventory held outside of -- producing territories outside of China. So we had inventory both in the U.S. and Europe to provide us with security. And I think they called out the third rare earth, which is about a 10-year secure supply.

It's something that I've returned to again in the first quarter of 2026 and being really focused and have our procurement operations focused on gaining increased security. So right now, we have in hand and despite an improved inventory efficiency, we actually have increased the inventory of rare earths such that we're fully covered through '26 and I think we're like 90% of 2027 and some products now well through the end of the decade.

So it's been a major push to increase security around rare earths such that with, again, some uncertainties around the geopolitical situation, even though we recognize there's a major political summit coming up between America and China, we want to make sure that we're able to be secure and supply our customers for a very extended period of time with the product we've got, which is essential, particularly for some of our defense applications to provide that supply security.

If you take the Savannah disposition, then that was 1 of the 2 operations where we buy alloy metal from somebody else, which is, let's say, was about 5% input of metals into the company. So let's assume now we have -- that 5% is down to 3.5% [indiscernible] 40% is supplied from our in-house operations in Europe. And so we're down to like a very tiny percentage of, I'll say, of metals that we rely on the alloy third-party suppliers and have very solid security stocks around rare earth. So I think we try to protect the company in a very significant way.

I think the second part of your question was around human capital. We've continued to recruit, I think, about 230, 250 people net in the first quarter of this year. We're still anticipating well over 1,000 people of adds during the course of this year. So similar, maybe slightly higher number than we had in 2025. And I've also spent a lot of time trying to improve all the, I'll say, methods that we have by way of recruitment and training and trying to reduce our employee turnover.

So we did make major strides during 2025 and the trajectory during the course of the year. So far in 2026, employee turnover has been pretty stable with the fourth quarter of 2025, but with, again, plans to, again, provide additional efforts to provide, I'll say, the training that we provide employees showing the people the workplace, looking at spans of control within our plants, looking at the basic recruitment practices itself and obviously, pay rate benefit programs and all the rest of it as well. So trying to provide a good work environment and at the same time, also automate.

And in fact, when I was in Japan last week looking at our new manufacturing plant there, which was mainly focused on the Gas Turbine business, again, spent a lot of time talking about the recruitment of people in Japan, which is actually more difficult than, say, the U.S. or Europe and also the importance of trying to find additional areas of automation such that we can put it more in our control than it is in something which is difficult to control, which is can you get sufficiently qualified and good people into your production operations. So a lot of efforts going in, Rob. And at the moment, I'm pretty convinced that we'll execute 2026 in a satisfactory way and still show further improvements in our employee retention.

And our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

So John, you've done a few deals lately with buying the Fastener businesses and then also divesting the Disk Forging business. When you look at the portfolio today, where are there additional areas that you want to expand? Or are there areas that you want to prune, especially as we start seeing more industrial gas turbine demand come through?

We pretty much have the same stance today on the portfolio as we've had for the last few years. So we examine acquisition opportunities as they arise. Obviously, it takes a willing seller as well as a willing buyer to transact. And we've also been very selective on those that we wanted to proceed with or potentially proceed with. So if you go back to the, let's say, the CAM acquisition, it wasn't the only one that had come up, but it was the only one that we ever got beyond expressing an interest in to actually showing the willingness to move quickly through to execution and signed the share purchase agreement.

So we want to be very selective in deploying that capital and be convinced that it adds something to us that passes all of the gates that we want to have with revenue synergy, which is always possibly most difficult to get, but we're convinced we will have revenue synergy as well as cost synergies and a good solid business where we can improve margins. And so it passed all of those. And I could say, likewise, obviously, a much smaller acquisition in Brunner but solid operations, which we've got very clear plans again through those types of synergy, including the opportunity of improving its top line.

So I can say we'd be discerning. At the same time, we always do look at our leverage to make sure that we're in a good zone and excluding CAM, we got ourselves to below 1 in terms of net leverage. Now it's 1.6, but it's going to decay rapidly to -- back towards the 1 level during the course of this year. So we are still very open to considering further acquisitive steps. And we're positive about it, but again, be very discerning. So if something comes up that doesn't stretch ourselves too far and maintains our ratings and our debt ratings is that we'll certainly give it a good look, but without getting what I call deal fever.

And at the same time, we think that we'll be able to maintain our share buyback program and also relook at the dividend. So we're in a good zone where we are deploying a lot of cash for capital expenditure for organic growth, which is always the best source of returns for us, both for margin and for return on capital. Then obviously, we have the opportunity of buying back our shares, and you've seen another, I'll say, great execution buying in the first quarter at $230 per share. I think today, we're well ahead of that. So again, a very accretive position for shareholders. And I think that beyond that, acquisitions are also something that we should give very active consideration to where we can see both revenue improvement and margin improvement as we go through and still able to continue with both buyback and improve our dividend payout. So I think it's all good at the moment, Kristine.

And the next question is from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

John, could you comment on where you are relative to capacity on the gas side? I think the first half of this year, I think you're pretty capacity constrained. And so is the growth we're seeing purely price related? And then at the whole portfolio level, I know you won't give us the specifics on price anymore, but how would you compare it to last year? And do you see a year when price -- year-on-year price increases don't grow?

Okay. So the increase in revenue in the first quarter was, I'm going to say, very good. I mean maybe it's more for you to say than me, but I thought 39% was outstanding. And as you know, we invested at a higher rate in gas turbines in 2024, but it's very modest, like maybe $30 million more than normal. We kicked that up in 2025 and so saw some modest increase in capacity. But essentially, for the first half of this year, it was going to be more -- that which we could obtain from yield improvement. Bear in mind, we've also improved our yields and so we're able to increase our total revenue from the Gas Turbine segment in the second half of last year. So the outcome for this year, which was a lot of volume, but some price in that 39% was great.

And in fact, again, if I just refer to what we saw in Japan was to see our new manufacturing plant and the first piece of equipment arriving there. And those are now being assembled into like working casting furnaces, which will be, I'd say, ready by the, I'd say, July-August time frame and starting to have their first production by the fourth quarter. So capacity is coming on, and that will help as we go towards the back end of the year.

But between now and then, it's -- again, it's going to come mainly from that yield focus that we have. The other thing which is happening and it will happen progressively and it is already happening as the volumes have been increasing, it's also given us the opportunity to consider moving -- increasingly move from batch production to flow production and with takt time. And so with that increase of repeatability and flow production, then that in itself is an opportunity where with the application of a lot of engineering effort, again, our yields are increasing. And in our guide, we've just been a little bit cautious about when exactly the capacity will come on, what yields we can really drive further in the next few months because the comps get harder given the production increases we achieved in the second half of last year.

So we're a bit cautious about it. But at the same time, positive that our total gas turbine production will increase progressively during each quarter during 2026. And then again, we'll see increases in '27. And we and -- in fact, both we and our customers are highly focused on '27 and '28 for further production increases because that capacity is really -- I mean we were almost desperately needed.

And then with another wave of investment that we're doing now, which will really only begin to affect the back end of '28 and going into 2029. So that's the shape of the, I'll say, what we're doing by way of yield, flow production, takt time, capacities that we committed to an investment last year flowing into this year and then what we've been investing in this year and continue to invest in 2027 which will come in to benefit our production in the back end of '28 to 2029.

So there's a lot going on, and that's what has given me confidence when I think about all those bricks in the wall that we're placing to bring those capacities and therefore, future revenue on. That's why I talked about us doubling or even more than doubling our revenue from this particular segment.

And the next question is from David Strauss with Wells Fargo.

John, within the 14% organic growth for this year, could you kind of break that out what's baked into that for aero, defense and IGT and I guess, transportation wheels, kind of what builds up to that? And as we think about '27 with the incremental additional capacity coming online, GTF Advantage, LEAP -- full year of LEAP-1B, IGT, is it possible that organic growth accelerates in '27 relative to the 14% you're now calling for in '26?

That's a big one. I think I'm happier talking about 2026 than 2027 at the moment and essentially down to, I'd say, the conviction over the aircraft manufacturers now truly poised to increase their production to the rates they want and also the macroeconomic outlook and probably the effects of inflation on the consumer. So there's a lot to be determined before you can be precise about a 2027 growth rate. I'm pretty clear that it's going to be positive for us.

The exact angle of growth yet, I don't think I want to go there until we know more, and I guess we'll know more as we go through the balance of this year and as you -- I'm sure, you probably more than most appreciate, we're all subject to that daily news cycle of global agreements or not or maybe it's 2 or 3 times a day versus new cycle currently rather than a daily news cycle, and that seems to weigh heavily on our lives. But dealing with this year, if I look at the guide we've given, I think we're going to see commercial aero in that 20% range, maybe defense in the 10% range, gas turbines somewhere 25%-ish, 30% not that it's a fundamental deceleration, but more just the year-on-year comps.

And I want to be cautious on how much we can get by way of yield in the next, let's say, 5 to 6 months before that capacity comes on stream. And then with a very cautious assumption around Commercial Transportation at the moment regarding that business because, I mean, freight rates have increased and that's good. On the other hand, diesel fuel has gone up a lot, and we're all subject to what will happen to GDP and growth rates for the economy and therefore, the amount of transportation required, both in North America and Europe in the back end of the year.

So while I could believe that commercial truck customers are scheduling more and they are without doubt. And there is evidence of some prebuy from the 2027 regs change in North America. At this point, we've taken a very modest below 5% assumption on the commercial transportation market, even though our customer schedules are significantly ahead of that. And we just want to see that play out, David.

And the next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

I wanted to ask, in terms of the legacy aftermarket and the potential exposure there to the macro environment, I think -- and correct me if I'm wrong, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but I think, John, you've kind of talked before about the expected endurance of the legacy fleet. And I assume that it's early to be making any judgment about that, but wondering if you can comment a bit further and talk about some of the things that you're looking for there. And also what proportion of the spares is that kind of legacy fleet?

Yes. The essential picture is pretty similar to what I've talked about in the past, where we see -- if you take the CFM range of engines starting off with the CFM56, we expect that production will increase during 2026 and 2027. So I have no concerns about that. And should it peak in 2028 or is it 2029, it's all going to depend upon a new aircraft build. It seems as though any decay will be very modest. So it's going to be a really good program going forward for many years.

So we're clear that that's going to be a growth program for us. The -- if you can now go to the LEAP range of engines that we also see that the Spares business for that is going to grow continuously every year for the next probably 8, 10 years, and I don't want to call it beyond that. And initially, it's probably higher level due to durability issues. And then on the GTF, I think that is exactly the same is that we will be supplying full production level of the existing GTF throughout '26 and a lot into '27, while also preparing for the GTF Advantage.

And so we're going to be raising rate and a lot of that is going to be destined for the MRO market well beyond the total engine sets that I expect that we will be producing, for example, in 2027 at full rate. My expectation is that the majority of those are actually going to go into the MRO network on a refit compared to OE build, even though there will be increased OE build as well. So it's a pretty healthy picture overall for spares.

And my expectation for commercial aero is that we're going to see growth every year for the balance of this decade and then beyond. The only thing we're going to be debating is what's the angle of growth. I think we're going to see more in the first 2 or 3 years or the first couple of years now than we will see in the latter 2 years of the decade. but still growing every year. So it's a really positive part of the portfolio. And I think -- I mean, Patrick already gave you the numbers for the total company, it's risen again from 21% of revenues, which was again higher than we said to you last year. We said getting it to about 20%. We were at 21% and first quarter was at 23%.

And we don't know yet, but I mean, it wouldn't surprise me that we sustained 23% through this year. And then depending on OE build, I suspect it could even go higher next year while also seeing a higher OE build. So -- but again, you've got to bake in -- is there, I'll say, any macroeconomic upsets. But at this point, it looks okay for us. And certainly, the guide we've given you is -- I don't believe it's going to be blown off course by any agreement or lack of agreement in -- with the Iran situation that we have in terms of what spares are going to be required for this year because of the enormous backlogs that we have.

And this concludes our question-and-answer session as well as today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

Thank you all for coming. It's a real honor today to have John Plant here with us. For those of you who don't know John, John is the Executive Chairman and CEO of Howmet Aerospace. So John, thank you for taking the time out. I know it's a crazy busy time in the industry and the world and everything, so thanks for making time to come over.

Thank you.

Maybe we start with just timely, last week, you all hosted an investor event in Whitehall. Is there any like high-level highlights that you'd like to mention? I know you guys talked about digital thread and some of the automation you do and some of the various things in the process.

We don't make a regular sort of thing of showcasing our manufacturing. But we thought given the recent, I'll say, significant investments we've made and seeing, let's say, the generational improvements from what we had done for, let's say, 2015 and that level of, I'll say, build-out and the amount of automation that we showcased of, let's say, improving those facilities and expanding in the investments that we had made in building a new plant out on the same campus in 2020, then that was a worthwhile event and thing to do.

And then more recently, for the build-out that we did in 2025 and still building out in terms of placement of new equipment, it was worthy of showing how we had produced and introduced the very latest technologies into that site that we have done elsewhere in Howmet and also how we're trying to bring together the thread of machine learning and use of artificial intelligence to improve the quality and yield of our parts and how we're providing an extraordinary level of traceability and capabilities in that plant.

So we thought it was something that was worthwhile doing, especially given the change of an improvement in manufacturing process while at the same time producing extraordinary increases in the technical performance of the parts all at the same time. So that's what we're really trying to get across and convey last week of how we're moving the goalpost once again in terms of increasing the moat around the Howmet business.

And when you think about the business, maybe that's a good transition to pretty much every end market you're exposed to now is on fire. Commercial aerospace is very, very strong. Defense is very, very strong. Industrial gas turbine is very, very strong. How do you think about deploying capital to those various markets when they're all very robust?

Well, of course, building capacity out is always -- I'll say, first of all, it's a pleasure compared to the opposite of shrinking one's business, so I guess that's very positive. But at the same time, when you're building out an enterprise, then you have a lot of considerations to take into consideration there, which is how much capital expenditure you should deploy, what's the going to be ability to get people, what's the counter to that in terms of automation?

And so the principle is exciting, but you have to be cautious and careful because there, you're building costs into your business, which you have to have a return on today and also in particular, over the coming years. So that's an interesting part of the equation. And then also, you have to consider the end markets that you're serving, not just your direct customer, but indeed what's happening to those end markets.

And there are different, I will say, risk indicators for us when we look at all of those different end markets and the considerations we take into account when we want to capacitize for, so we'll have slightly different flavors, for example, between our commercial aerospace customers to our defense aerospace customers and to, let's say, land-based gas turbine customers. So they have different characteristics, different levels of, I will say, historical cyclicality and say, security around them and also the volume and a variety of considerations.

So you're trying to take all of those factors into account when making those investment decisions. And you have different levels of knowledge also. For example, you have backlog numbers that you'll have for your commercial aerospace clients, which you don't have that -- quite that same level of clarity that you have in the industrial gas turbine markets.

And so I mean, maybe I'll change gears a little bit because usually, we jump right in commercial. Why don't I start with industrial gas turbine? How are you thinking about that? I mean it does seem like maybe 4 or 5 years ago, at least in the investment community, we weren't really thinking that, wow, we'd see this boom in industrial gas turbine. How are you thinking about that for your business?

I guess I've also evolved my own thinking around those markets because previously, it wasn't the biggest end market for us to spend a lot of time thinking about. And maybe historically, I'd been maybe too dismissive of the preparedness to invest. I consider it to be a much more volatile, short cycle part of the business and one plagued by many new product introductions, which led to, I would say, increasingly small batch sizes and continual product development, which was the antithesis of getting good yields for your parts.

And so it didn't seem to be the most profitable, the most secure and therefore, relatively uninvestable by comparison. And it was more on a maintenance basis of that capacity. But things began to change in 2024, I felt. First of all, some of our customers were more interested in repeatability of their own turbine builds and therefore, far less volatility around NPIs. So you had that aspect. Then you began to appreciate that the move to renewables probably wasn't the best solution for all of the customer set and having that base level of demand uncertainty and the ability to respond to, let's say, underlying energy requirements meant the gas turbines really were a good place to be, and it was probably going to give us at least a consistent demand level of maybe single-digit growth for the balance of the decade and beyond, and so it was one where it was worthwhile to replace and repair capacity and maybe increase slightly.

So we began to tick up the investment a little bit in '24, then it seemed to change again in 2025. And I do remember just after the last presidential election in the U.S., also, it seemed to change again due to the emphasis on fossil fuels versus renewables and that caused us to again rethink the amount of capacity that would be required in terms of the natural gas turbine. And it could be whether it was from natural gas or indeed hydrogen and dual use, it was more investable.

And then bit by bit, you began to get convinced that the electricity demand was going to increase with the data center buildout, which has been going on for some time. And so every aspect of what we were looking at, whether it was the base load looking at European, I'll say, energy requirements, particularly for the next decade, those things which have been uninvestable, for example, in the defense industry in Europe became so and the same for, I'll say, natural gas in terms of an energy provision and the ability of the U.S. to provide LNG tankers across to Europe, again, commensurate with energy security, it became far more interesting for us.

And then, of course, you had not just the underlying data center buildout, but then you had the increasing emphasis on data centers and what's been an extraordinary level of capital investment, which seems to change almost every 6 months now. So even that which we had looked at in the second half of last year by way of an investment program for the next few years through '26, '27 and '28 by February of this year, it changed again. And you saw certain of, I'll say, the hyperscalers announcing, I'll say, investment increase like from $135 million (sic) [ $135 billion ] to $185 million (sic) [ $185 billion ], I think that was maybe Microsoft, and then you had Amazon coming out, so they're going to spend $200 billion.

And so none of those levels of increases of investment are currently in our capacity numbers. We just have not yet even considered them. So those very immediate customer being the gas turbine manufacturers, those that we had, let's say, executed agreements with to build additional capacities for them over the next few years, those are already changing once again. So it's quite fascinating.

And you also have to consider not just the next 3 years, but you're looking through to the end of the decade and increasingly now, like what's going to happen by 2032, 2035 and the -- not just for large utilities, but also for mini and micro grids, which are providing electricity sources for other industrial complexes where maybe the fundamental electricity supply won't be sufficient. So it's -- there's a lot of things to think about, both in the U.S., but for other markets in the world and also what the choices of energy source is going to be.

So I mean maybe when you look out to 2030, 2035, how do you think that end market compares to commercial aero?

I don't think I know enough yet to be able to have absolute clarity over what the requirements will be. I can see the aircraft backlogs. I can see what's been ordered or options on aircraft. And therefore, that level of, let's say, security, obviously, you could always have cancellations, but without that build rate increases in commercial aero, then if you were to order a, let's say, a Boeing 787 today, you probably wouldn't get it before 2040, absent rate increases.

And so you have that increased visibility. You don't yet have that for the large and small to midsized gas turbines. You have a level of demand and then you have to take into account lots of other energy policy and macroeconomic factors to give you the conviction to be willing to invest to a certain degree. And then you have to consider where do we fit in with that market, which for us, of course, it's not just building out the OE level of capacity because those turbines, which we supply over the next 5 years, which will be a lot higher quantity than the last 5 years, then that's going to give us the replacement market in the 2030s.

So we're also trying to evaluate if turbine build were to, let's say, stop growing, then does that mean we would stop growing? Well, the answer to that is no. We would continue with the OE build, but then we'd have all the spares for all the turbines that we produce over the next 5 years. So it gives us a level of repeatability, which is quite different for Howmet compared to just the basic consideration of the OE level of demand. And so you've got all of those considerations to build into it as well.

And then also how does the mini and, I'll say -- let's say, average smaller land-based gas turbine, how does that play into the demand pattern over the decade to 2040. So a lot of things to think about, but the conviction that it's a good space to be, it's going to be a significant increase in business for us. It's going to give us significant replacement demand. But then how do we protect ourselves on those investments with the contracts that we were willing to enter into with our direct customer and how does that occur as well. So again, lots of things to think about, which is the propensity to invest with what risk profile and security do we want.

Got you. And maybe transitioning to commercial aero, you mentioned the big backlogs. And for example, on 787, you mentioned if rates didn't go up, it would take a very long time to get your airplanes. How are you thinking about the OE delivery rates? We see the big backlog, but how are you thinking about where deliveries could go and how that impacts your business? And I would say, let me frame it this way, historically, you guys have taken a little bit more conservative view on that and been rewarded for it, you've been right. How are you thinking about that going forward?

Well, I'm convinced that the airframe manufacturers and the engine manufacturers are going to make more. And so that's a good starting point. More is better. And so we are prepared and capacitized to -- and will invest to be able to produce more. But at the same time, we've always maintained a fairly cautious stance over where should we guide in terms of the Howmet, let's say -- let's call it, more of a promise of what we're going to deliver by way of profitability for our shareholders. And so where we guide to and where we can produce to may be different.

So should an aircraft manufacturer to be able to produce more, I'm convinced that we will be able to match rate. At the same time, we want to make sure that we don't get caught out. And an example of that might be if you took the aspirations that airframe manufacturers had for 2025, I think every one of them was convinced that, as an example, they would make more wide-body aircraft. You can think of whether it's an Airbus A350 or 787, the thought was production will be higher.

Now in the final reckoning, it wasn't as high as people had imagined. And therefore, there's always going to be the drawdown of inventories for parts they'd ordered last year. And so you can see that as an example, you can just take the titanium purchases by Airbus in 2026. They will actually be reduced compared to previous thoughts because of what had already been previously purchased. The same where other manufacturers promised, let's say, a rate 38-or-something and struggled and eventually gets there, but -- so you have to take account of all of those inventory cycles of overordering, reductions of inventories or not increasing because they allow those inventories to be used up when rates do begin to increase.

So you have a lot of those things rippling through the industry as well. So in the last few years, it's been beneficial to be cautious over what will actually get done while thinking positively and wanting to say if customers achieve those rates, then of course, we'll be able to support them. So I know that we have, in one sense, wasted money. We've recruited people and trained them. And sometimes they have not been made productive at the same rate as expected. But at the same time, where, I'll say, other shortages have come or our peers have not been able to keep up, we've been able to supply in those things. It's been a good equation for us because of the quality and delivery that Howmet has been able to produce has stood us in really good stead in our arrangements with the customer. We've been -- the company has been able to achieve output.

And do you have the capacity in place to meet where OEM demand potentially could go?

Again, it's never the simple binary yes or no. It's always that, well, maybe. And so if you were to say, can we meet if Boeing gets to rate 47 or is it 52 or is it 60-something? Well, the answer is yes. But now if you then ask me the same question, do Airbus -- can we support them getting to rates 65, 75 or higher? Well, the answer is yes. But then if you were to stack everybody on top of each other, if you add all of the demand for narrow-body of, let's say, an A220, an A320, a Boeing 737 and by the way, let's now stack on top of the build-out of wide-bodies on top and on top and on top and every one of them, then today, I don't think we could support all of that at the moment.

Therefore, you have to make a judgment, will every one of those rates come to, I'll say, to be or into fruition? At the moment, we would have -- as we gain conviction over the next few years that, that becomes the likelihood, then my suspicion is that we would actually have to put more capacity down to achieve that level of production because if you take the previous peak on narrow-body, it was probably around about 100 aircraft a month in 2019. We're not there yet. But if you stack today's aspirational numbers on top of each other, then you have to be producing 150, 160 aircraft a month. And that's a lot of increase over the previous peak.

Now are we in a fundamentally better position, let's say, in terms of the life cycle of new technology on an engine program? Probably yes. But if I suspect if you scan the whole supply base and said, can you produce 50% more than your previous peak? I suspect the answer probably would be no. And I think we would probably fit into that as well, which would say, no, we would need to build out more. Now have we -- if you looked at what we showcased last week in as vital of one of our manufacturing plants, and we've got 60 of them, we provided for additional space such that we could drop machines in should they be required.

So providing we're inside our own ability to produce machines because we produce a lot of our own equipment ourselves because we want to keep it hidden from view. But even where we buy on the external markets from third-party machine tool manufacturers, as long as we're inside lead time for those, then we're good. But because you're positive that every one of our end markets is growing, then, I'll say, places and capacities of machine tool manufacturers are becoming very tight. And so we've been trying to make sure that we can reserve capacity in as we can. But again, we've got to accept and believe the demand signals for our customers, and can you stack all of these things on top of each other? Because today, we probably would not have that capacity in place.

How -- I mean just to maybe unpack that a little bit. How tight is machine tool capacity? If you were to order something today, ballpark, how long would it take to -- I've heard things like autoclaves can take 2 years?

Yes. It really depends upon type of equipment. But you're getting at that 2 years and more than 2 years now in terms of -- unless you have reserve capacity, then it's becoming a problem. And so in our dialogue with some of our land-based gas turbine customers, the situation is if you believe that demand and you want to contract for it, then every week that goes by, it's not necessarily lose a week here and therefore lose a week at the end of the timing of introduction. Maybe you lose a week now and you're going to lose 3 months when you need it because of the capacity in the industry and it applies both for plant and equipment, but also tooling.

So for example, we just built a whole new plant out for tooling because we need to more than double our own production of dyes, which is extraordinary if you think about it, just to double that and more. And not everybody -- not every company has the -- even the financial capacity to do that, whereas at least with Howmet, our customers, I think, believe that the answer is we can. And I think that's really important to them that they know that should we commit to doing it, then we have the management depth to be able to do it, we have the financial depth to be able to do it. And that's really important at this stage of the economic cycle with the supplier that can.

And one thing you didn't mention was labor. Is labor become a challenge, as you start stacking all this on top of each other?

It's quite strange in that labor has become a little bit easier than it was in the immediate years after COVID, gaining, I'll say, labor in gestation, [Audio Gap] the quantity of additional new employees that have been required. But at the same time, we have experienced elevated turnover and gaining the right quality of employee has been a challenge for us. We've put a lot of effort into that and trying to reduce our employee turnover. And that's been additional routines through our recruitment processes.

We've actually built out additional training centers so that we can train people for a long period of time before we put them into -- this is for real in terms of those are production requirements. And obviously, because of the interlinking, let's say, 40 or 50 processes that some of our parts go through, if you make a failure of a part at the early stage, then it cascades through your whole manufacturing process. So training is really important.

And we've been emphasizing the recruitment and the training and even the degree to what's the average span of control of, I'll say, maybe manufacturing supervision in our plants such that there's a more intimate personal relationship with our employees to try to gain that because it's very important to us. At the same time, as improving, I'll say, that whole employee turnover, we've also been spending a lot of money on automation. I think you heard a quote last week from our Wheels business, so not in aerospace, where it was 1 robot now for every 2 people, which is a very significant level of automation.

And if you looked at what we built out in that new engine plant, again, a very high level of, I'll say, machine input versus the labor input. But that's not just done for, I'll say, labor input costs and to do with variability because of labor turnover. It's also vital for the quality. In fact, some of the tolerances of our parts have now reached a level where it's almost impossible for a human being to replicate that on a consistent basis, let's say, hour by hour, nevermind shift by shift. And so automation and machine input is there for quality purposes more than it is for labor cost purposes.

Got you. And we didn't talk about aftermarket demand. So if you've got all these OE programs, where the aftermarket fit in all of that? Because that's even -- that's growing too as a fleet grows?

Yes. I mean, we're seeing demand for the aftermarket growth for fleet growth, for sure, the build-out of both commercial aircraft given the very low scrappage rates that we have been experiencing in the last few years. You see it also in some of the major military programs where if we take the F-35 as an example, there's always a lag between producing that new aircraft and then what's the spares demand going to with what the duty cycle is and how many hours between the shop visits for that aircraft.

But then as the fleet grows, then we saw -- and we have these predictive models of what aftermarket demand will increase by. And so the prediction that by 2035, we'd be producing more aftermarket turbine blade parts for the F-35s and OE parts came to be. Now if you blow that forward and say the fleet will increase over the next 5 years by another 150-plus aircraft per year for the 5 years, so there's another 800 aircraft, then as you plan that through into the 2030s and that demand and then by 2040, and then those aircraft will probably be in service till 2070-or-something, then you can see what the aftermarket stream will be through those decades. And so that's an important part.

Then also with every new generation of aircraft engine, with the increase in, I'll say, emissions requirements or fuel efficiency, then the temperatures rating within the turbine has been tending to increase. The pressures increase because you want to optimize the fuel and gain more fuel efficiency and that in itself produces more exacting environment in the gas path of the turbine, which means that those turbine blades have to be operated and operated tends to be both the barrier coatings that we put on of various types, but also the basic construct of allowing airflow and increasing airflow through those turbine blades where we've reached a level now where we can consciously and deliberately accelerate the airflow or we can decrease it according to where you want those cooling parts to be on the turbine blade.

The way we exhaust the air from it and the holes and which -- what type of hole, what shape of hole and then now how we are trying to control the flow of air so that the air molecules will follow the curvature of the turbine blade and all of that is leading to, again, value for us. And so the complexity is increasing. And therefore, the aftermarket opportunity because as each engine has been introduced, then it's -- so far is that the theoretical time to replacement has yet to be achieved, and therefore, it's given us a higher replacement rate.

So we're now going through the part where we know that we haven't reached peak yet for the -- for example, on the CFM56 for the CFM area. That has not yet peaked. That's still got some years of growth left in it. And yet we stopped producing it essentially for OE demand 5 years ago. Now we have, let's say, in that particular customer, the LEAP range of engines, which is the shop visits are going to be increasing every year through the next 10 years. So we see that.

But also beyond that service demand, which will increase every year for the next 5 years, we're also seeing this temporary, I call it, a bit of a bubble we're going through because of the early life failures of some of those parts in some of the countries in the world where air pollution is greater or you're seeing silica in particular, let's call it sand from the Middle East or whatever, that's causing, again, thermal problems in the -- after the combustor, and therefore, parts are having to be replaced. And therefore, we've got underlying secular demand. We've got, what I call, a bit of a bubble demand. But the thing you know is that the demand is increasing and the sophistication of the part is increasing and therefore, tending to be good for that part of our business.

And will that require more investment in capacity to support all that aftermarket across both those end markets?

Compared to history, probably. And so we're having to make assessments of what those demand requirements are. Also, it's stacking it, as I said, according to what we think the OE level of it will be building out through both narrow-body and wide-body in the coming years. So a fascinating -- it's not a problem, but a fascinating thing to work through. But also, it's like everything, the risk and reward go together or maybe it's reward with risk.

And then with defense budgets have been growing around the world in the U.S., pretty robustly, potentially for fiscal '27, very robustly. I think we -- a lot of us know about the F-35 opportunity. Are there other new potential opportunities for Howmet in defense markets, given the growth there?

Well, we try to work on most things which are going on. So you could look at, first of all, what's the next-generation uplift to performance of the engine on an F-35 or you could say what is going to be the engine of choice for the F-47 or is the Navy going to get a plane and what will be that engine of choice. So we try to position ourselves well for those.

I mean the next thing which is quite exciting, which is, again, the degree of demand is probably not able to be really determined at the moment is the future use of collaborative combat aircraft. So these unmanned aircraft that will fly alongside a manned fighter, I mean is it 2, is it 5, is it 25? We don't yet understand what that end demand will be and maybe it will be also a function of defense budgets and the blend between manned and unmanned aircraft.

And so -- and we -- neither do we know who will be the airframe manufacturer of choice. Will it be like one of the existing defense primes with one of these newer companies that have been entering the market and who will gain the contracts and who will be successful is like we don't know yet. But we're trying to position ourselves for the engines, as an example. So it's not just the structural parts or the fasting systems, which those CCAs will require, but also what engine.

And of course, each airframe manufacturer, there won't be a different engine for every one of them. There will be a common engine, which -- so the eventual choice of who's going to produce them, but they will make those engine selection. So the last 3 selections, we've been part of that. And so we've been positioning for it, believing that it's a good market to deploy our engineering resources, but we don't understand yet its size. But thinking overall, let's say, a 5,000-pound thrust or 8,000 or 15,000-pound thrust engine for a collaborative combat aircraft, it might be bigger than the manned aircraft, depending how many, but we don't know how many.

But it's another chip we'll place down on the roulette table and say this is a good thing for us. At the same time, it's not just rocket motors, but some of the larger missile systems are now requiring a turbine as well. So we're sort of trying to cover that part of the market. And also with the -- we've all seen large orders for missiles in the last, I'll say, 2 or 3 years, and it seems like almost a day doesn't go by without another order place for them. And so whether they are defensive missiles like Patriot systems or whatever, we also tend to make sure that we're well placed for parts on those as well, albeit it's not the biggest part of the Howmet business, but it will be an interesting increase in demand for us over the next few years.

And just going down that a little bit. In commercial space, there's been a real push towards reusable rockets that require turbines. Is that an end market that you guys play in or...

Well, I wasn't quite sure what you're referring to there because most of the things -- I mean maybe for a missile, they never come back. So that's something different. I mean they are meant to be destroyed upon impact. So I've never seen one come back yet. On the collaborative combat aircraft, we have no clue. I mean, are they meant to be disposable or are they meant to return? I guess it will be a combination according to what the mission is required at the time. So some will come back and some won't. And we don't know. We're just humble parts manufacturers for...

I was referring to reusable rockets where some of those...

Oh, you mean for like space rockets like for Blue Origin or something?

Yes.

Yes, we do some of that stuff as well. It's been interesting. So we thought -- and our space business has increased a lot as, I'll say, the amount of parts which have been used in -- whether it's been SpaceX, Blue Origin or any of the others, USC or something, I don't know. It's been increasing. But what's been interesting is that a lot of other markets have seemed to have like come up more rapidly and gone beyond them in terms of opportunity. So right now, the area which seems particularly hot once you got through the, I'll say, new fighter aircraft or new stealth bombers and that build-out, which we're involved with as well, it's been the CCAs and the missiles, which has suddenly become a lot more interesting because you've got now beyond just like there's another lot and it's difficult for us to capacitize just for another lot because once you've done a lot, well, you can do the equipment.

So there's a reluctance to capacitize for it. But when you're seeing now demand for, say, you can see for certain missile systems demand for 7 years, it becomes more investable, and therefore, the considerations around capital deployment become different.

And then maybe, just as a last question, your own supply chain, do you worry about them? I mean how tough has that been to manage given you're ramping, they have to ramp too?

For the most part, we buy base metal. And so the difficulties obtaining alloy or alloyed metals has been fairly small for us. We do buy, for example, for our Rings business, where we do buy alloyed metal from other suppliers. And we also produce it for ourselves. So maybe we are 40% self-sufficient in where we do buy alloyed metal, whereas 60% comes from the outside. It's only like 5% to 8% of our business. The rest is base metal.

So we're buying from, I'll say, traders or smelters directly. So it's -- metal input has not been an issue for us at all. Right now, given the build-out, I'd be more worried about machine tool capacity than base metal capacity. Now we'll have to think about what the overall picture is. So is there enough alloy being prepared for all [Audio Gap] well, under the right circumstances or the right commercial arrangements, yes, we could. But that's not really our normal business. We only supply, to a degree, to our internal requirements. So we will alloy ourselves on base metal for, for example, our turbine blade business. But for our Rings business, we'll access just part of the market, say, up to a maximum of 8% of our material input from the alloy manufacturers.

Got you. Well, I think we're out of time, John. Thank you very much. That was a lot of fun.

Thank you. Nice to talk to you, Ron. Thank you.

Thanks.

Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace 2026 Technology and Markets Day. I'm PT Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. After today's presentation by our executive leadership team, we'll take some questions.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and in our most recent SEC filings.

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income excluding special items, adjusted EPS excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our most recent SEC filings.

And with that, I'd like to turn the presentation over to John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

So good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Howmet Technology and Markets Day. We hope to make it interesting for you. The objectives are, let's say, multifold. I had originally expected that the members of the management team will be sitting up here with me, but they said could they stay in the audience for just a little while longer because they're not used to being the movie stars that they truly are. And hopefully, you'll get some clear impression of their knowledge of the business and the confidence with which they lead each of their relative business unit segments. And hopefully, you got the opportunity to talk with them last night.

The next part of it is really to try to give you an outline of the business and a little bit more detail than you saw in our previous Technology Day, and also to talk to the things which have, I'll say, transpired and developed and how we've moved on since then. And then Patrick will do sort of wind up with the financial data that he wants to show. I know many of you are thinking that we're going to sort of give you the 3-year guidance numbers, but that's really sort of paper that we're going to hand to you as we walk out of the room. That was a joke for those people who are now recording and videoing the session.

And for those people who are -- I think we're trying to get it webcast live, but there's a technical glitch, but they'll be keyed in hopefully,shortly as we go through.

And finally, before I leave the stage and I hand across to, first of all, Merrick, for the Engine business, I'll talk to you a little bit about sort of what are you going to see today and what it is that I think should be exciting and to key in the things that really major and focus on as you do the plant to Whitehall. And you're going to hopefully see that our latest and greatest plant is yet another generation of technology beyond that, which we displayed, say maybe 2.5 years ago.

And then at the end of it will be Q&A, and I'll do my best not to answer every question because I know you really would like to hear from the other people.

So let's get started and put the first slide up and just make sure that it's there. So there's nothing particularly revealing in my slide. And you say, well, have you seen this one before, and the answer is absolutely yes. But I think that strategy for any business is one of a continuum, maybe a little bit refined here and there. But essentially, so what do we do? We really focus on differentiating ourselves and growing the business above the rates that we see in the marketplace. So growing above market is critical to us.

We also differentiate clearly and allocate resources of engineering and capital to where we see the best potential returns. So it is not smearing of resources and smearing of money. It really is allocated to the areas of highest return and the highest areas of potential growth. And then we also underpin that with financial and operational discipline. So we're very clear. We talk about it both on a monthly basis and, in particular, on a quarterly basis, how we're going to, say, do that allocation and focus and keep that operational discipline and financial discipline in place. And then finally also, in terms of allocation, we have a clear eye view of the way we allocate our capital allocation strategy and which essentially comes down to how we're going to return, say, all the money to our shareholders.

Moving to the next slide. You are familiar with how we look at the business in terms of providing ourselves with these differentiated products tending towards lightweighting, fuel efficiency and the things which you would expect for any business operating in the aerospace and land-based turbine business and, say, defense aerospace. It's all about trying to achieve higher performance using less and less input, say, requirements to them.

And then also, as you saw in our fasteners business last night, also the ability to offer reduced and improved assembly costs to the airframe manufacturers as well and giving them also the ability to have throughput and labor efficiency also combined with robotics which, again, Vagner will talk to. And then finally, with that also providing the opportunity for increased safety at every point as well.

Next up is the usual, I'd say, end markets and our manufacturing footprint and where do we operate. Well, essentially everywhere in the world that's appropriate for us, again, centered in the U.S. and Europe. We're also having operations, for example, in Japan and China and so that we're able to cover all of our customers on a global basis.

Turning now to the end markets. And so what are we looking for and how do we see them going forward? Well, first of all, commercial aerospace, the backlog numbers that we have for both wide-body and narrow-body aircraft are quite extraordinary, the highest they've ever been. And it should lead us to have, hopefully, uninterrupted growth absent some form of geopolitical events for the next few years.

And in fact, the backlog is so great that without an increase in build that is necessary then to order and to receive a new aircraft now, where it's a new narrow-body, you're looking into the early 2030s, or for widebody, it's more like in a decade from now. And so clearly, that is unsustainable and everybody is trying to increase the build rates. And therefore, the underlying volume is supportive of our revenue independent of us trying to obviously, again, grow above those markets by increased share and adding content.

Moving now to talk about our data center business and land-based gas turbines. And I just thought I'd put this slide in, in terms of trying to demonstrate that while we talk gas turbines for many different end markets, essentially it's down to the generation of electricity. And one of the fundamental drivers of quite an extraordinary growth is the build-out of these data centers.

And I put a map of the U.S., which seemed to be current, about 3 or 4 months ago. But every 3 or 4 months, if we look at it, that map changes with additional permitting and planned build-out over the next few years and the requirement for increased power to drive the, I'll say, drive those data center racks, the chips, not only for making them work but also cooling them and driving, you can see on the top right, the requirement for that increase in power.

And I just expressed it as an increase in percentages from, I'd say, 2025 baseline to show the growth coming from that segment of the market. And that segment of the market is producing strains, which you've also read about, for total electricity demand and driving, say, energy rates for us. And so it's become a particularly exciting part of the market for us to address. And the way we address it is through both the large gas turbines, which previously we only sold really to utilities or to our customers that serve the utilities.

But increasingly, the requirements for a stable power source for the build-out of these data center is putting even the larger gas turbines in certain data center clusters to provide that generation capability. And then also, you can see on the slide the midrange turbines, which have also showed, for example, the one produced by solar or aero derivatives by GE for GE Vernova. And you can see the customer set that we operate with in each of those areas. And then for this market, which you'll probably be less familiar for Howmet is that, again, we're the largest manufacturer and the highest market share for gas turbine blades in the world.

In terms of our defense markets, Again, we saw, again, very good growth last year, some 20% plus. And you can see their demand not just for the latest fighter generation, which is the F-35, but also for the previous generations of F-15 and F-16, which now have extended lives, in fact, significant new orders both from the U.S. Department of War and also, for example, for Saudi Arabia for the F-15 Super Eagle, where they placed an order for 200 new aircraft. And each of those has 2 engines on them, as you're probably aware.

Beyond the fighter jet that everybody is familiar with, we also serve other areas of the defense market. On the right-hand side, some of the parts that go to Howitzers that we provide and also for tank turbines. But one part which is increasingly notable for us is the build-out of missiles and the replenishment of the missile stocks for the U.S. and, in particular, demand emanating from Europe where it's quite extraordinary, both for the structural parts, but increasingly now for the new opportunity we see for the production of parts for the smaller turbines which are required for the collaborative combat aircraft and also the low cruise missiles.

And so these are turbines, which, say -- I mean, in the case of a missile, of course, they don't come back. But in the case of a collaborator aircraft, they may come back, they may not depending upon the particular mission specifics that they have. But it's going to be smaller turbines, much smaller thrust in that 5,000 pounds to 8,000 pounds to 10,000 pounds of thrust, very different to the other end of the turbines that we do, for example, for like a GE9x, which is over 100,000 pounds of thrust for that new 777X that we expect to be launched in 2027.

But all of those markets are exciting. We position ourselves for anything that's coming, so whether it is the next generation engines, which may be required for the F-47 or maybe the Navy Fighter, which is being considered at the moment, we try to ensure that whichever is the engine selection for any of the markets is that we are well positioned for it.

Finally, our Wheels business, which for some of you who took quite interest in the aluminum wheels. And you can see that as a fundamentally strong business that Randall talked to many of you about last night and why we see it as maintaining and driving, again, both market share growth of the revenue line and also a very healthy profitability and cash flow and the characteristics of that and why it is that, and Randall is going to describe to you.

And with that, I'll stop for my slides. But I just wanted to now key in on what are you going to see for the rest of the morning. So first of all, besides the fact that it's a new plant with a next generation of technology that anybody has seen previously, it's also the very first time that anybody of the invited guests in this room will have had the chance to see how we start or the early stages of our manufacturing process. So previously, you've seen how we, I'd say, assemble and nest parts through wax into casting.

But you've never seen us show you anything to do with how we provide the course for a turbine blade. And the reason why this is so important is that this is providing the passage ways for air inside the turbine blades. And these are made, first of all, with proprietary technology in terms of compounding. So the chemical compositions of the is highly protected. They go through multiple sort of manufacturing steps from being pressed and laid to rest and then fired to produce, let's say, in this case, a ceramic part. But also we saw some of the ones last night which are very, very small and providing very fine webs of passageways for air in terms the movement of them.

And when we produce one of these, the most important thing that you'll hear about during the course of the morning is what we're calling digital thread, which is our desire to try to measure these parts at every stage with the manufacturing process. So we may pick out, I don't know, 300 data points for measurement of these. We will know exactly the chemical compounding. We'll know the temperature at which they are produced, the humidity in the environment. We'll note the pressure that was in the press. We'll know exactly how are they were laid on the set of which they go into a heat treatment, the controls for the heat treatment.

And so we were producing, let's say, 50 data points of information about that as we produce it. And all of that knowledge for this part is then moved to our wax department. In the same way, we're going to see data points collected for all of that before it's then encapsulated in a shell, which is, again, proprietary technology in terms of the chemical compositions and the slurries and how we measure viscosity and, again, I would say the composition at each stage of that part of the manufacturing.

Before we move it into then where we may decide to insulate it in certain parts where we're providing insulation wraps, which are precisely measured and places where we don't measure such that we can then prepare it for casting. And along the way, we'll be measuring, for example, the frequency of the ram, which is then moving the part into the casting so we can detect the fractional vibrations. So by the time you finished, let's say, through 40 or 50 manufacturing processes, depending upon the part, we'll have picked up millions of data points. And with the volumes you're producing, it's trying to understand those data points.

So as the parts become increasingly complex, as the airways become smaller and smaller and the ability to hold air on the surface of the turbine blades so that we're able to provide cooling where it's needed and we let inside the turbine blades because the air goes through the holes in the routes that you see here and a very large one, we'll provide in places where we'll accelerate the air and decelerate it. And so everything that we're doing in terms of complexity in next generation sort of goes against improving our yields.

And it's with this digital thread that we have through the business in this new manufacturing plant, it's where we're able to gather that data and provide in the first instance, well, with computers to analyze it, but then pointing us to where we need to go to make adjustment to the process to hold or to improve our yields. And then at some stage in the future, our concept is that we'll use those, I'll say, learnings that we have from the data and obviously use then AI-based, I would say, knowledge to actually automatically adjust the conditions of manufacturing.

And so when we pass the air through then on a large one, you can see here, if I can just draw it to your attention the very fine air holes that we have here to allow those air to come out. And you'll see increasing levels of complexity from big ones, which you've seen for, I would say, a land-based large gas turbine, 3 to 4 feet in length, to the very smallest of blades, which are now producing, I will say, air holes and shaped air holes, which Merrick will talk to to hold the air on the surface. And they are smaller than the human hair.

So there's a lot going on in the business. It's driving technology, trying to differentiate ourselves by also the ability to solve the problems that our customers may have and while maintaining a very protected level of IP inside the company so that we're able to do things that truly nobody else in the world is able to do.

And with that, I'll hand across to Merrick because he's going to describe to you in a little bit more detail, but I wanted to sort of base those concepts in your minds before you hear Merrick. And then you'll hear it again as we go out around Whitehall.

[Presentation]

All right. Well, good morning, everybody. I'm not sure we're going to need the tour now, John, after that explanation, I mean. Yes. Well, listen, I think we've got a very exciting day planned for you today. For those that are going to be visiting us for the first time, we're going to be showing you elements of our business that, frankly, we don't show very often. And if you have had the chance to visit us, then I promise you is not going to be the same old tour. Because as John mentioned, we're going to get to take you to the beginning where it all starts for us, and that's with our core manufacturing that we just completed an expansion up in Whitehall.

So we're very excited to get you up there. I know the team is very excited to get you up there. They don't get to show off very often. So it should be fun.

So look, anytime I get to talk about my business, I always have to start by saying I think we have something very, very special with the Engines business and for a lot of reasons, and we're going to talk about many of them today. But it starts with us helping our customers win in the marketplace. And I think that battlefront continues to be helping them increase fuel efficiency, reduce emissions and ultimately improve time on wing.

And the turbine section of the engine is where those elements are either enabled or constrained. And so if you're going to increase fuel efficiency, you need hotter temperatures. If you need hotter temperatures, then you need better materials and more complex cooling schemes. And in order for that to happen, you need more advanced manufacturing systems and processes. That's the cascade that we operate in today and it's helping our customers solve those elements that I think help them win in the marketplace.

And that typically culminates in us supplying strong, lightweight investment castings with complex serpentine passages and coatings. And those parts have to withstand the harshest environments known to man. And so let's talk about that for a second because I think it's important.

So I'm guessing that most of you probably flew here yesterday. And while you may not know the technical aspects of flight, I'm pretty sure you probably memorized every movement, sound, feeling that happens during that process, right? So let's talk about it because I think it's important as it relates to the engine. And so if you look at that diagram for a second, and if you can think about [ taxing out to the right ], those engines are in a low thrust mode at that point. Temperatures are probably 800 to 1,000 degrees, so pretty stable environment. Pilot pulls out on the runway, he begins to rev up those engines. You begin to feel those vibrations. He releases the brake, and you start rolling down the runway, right?

So there's a lot of things happening inside that engine at that point. Air is being sucked in through the fan blades. The majority of that area will bypass the core and be pushed out for propulsion. And then the remaining air will be sucked into the core. And as it is, it will be compressed and squeezed. Temperatures will rise, pressures will rise. And then it will go through the combustion chamber. Fuel get mixed in. There'll be a controlled explosion, and that air stream will get pushed through the turbine section, which turns the shaft, which turns the fan blade, right? The remaining air is pushed through the remaining stages of the turbine out the back for additional thrust.

All that's happening while you're picking up speed going down the runway in a very simplistic model, right? Now there's a point on the runway that pilots referred to as the V1 point or the point of no return. Once that plane crosses that point, those pilots in that plane are going to take off no matter what. So that plane crosses that point. You feel the nose of the plane lift off the runway, eventually the wheels. You can feel those G-force kind of push you back in your seat, right? At that point, those engines are operating their hardest. They're at maximum thrust or take off power.

And it's also at that point that our blades and veins in that red section have to survive an environment that would instantly destroy just about any other man-made object. So I'd like to say you have 3 impossibilities happening at that point. The first impossibility are the temperatures because those temperatures are now reaching or exceeding 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit, nearly 800 degrees beyond the melting point of the alloys that we use. That's what we call the inferno. The second impossibility is that now those blades are rotating at probably 12,000 to 15,000 RPMs, putting significant force on the integrity of those blades. That's what we call the stretch because a blade that at rest would only weigh a few ounces now is the equivalence of a fully loaded semi-tractor trailer. And the third impossibility is that while that air stream is moving through that engine at significant temperatures, it's also moving through an incredible force and pressure. That's what we call the hurricane because those pressure ratios are probably now 40:1 or the equivalence of being 1,500 feet below the surface of the ocean.

So you have the perfect storm of physics happening. And so here's the point. our parts have to withstand incredibly harsh conditions. And what we do is hard and complex and requires multiple layers of technology to make it all happen. But it's also those parts that ultimately determine the capability, the efficiency, the durability and, I would argue, the economics of that engine. So to be successful, we have to not only provide parts. We have to provide a system that allows our OEM customers to open up their operating envelope and, ultimately, get everyone home safely. And I can promise you that's something that we never take for granted. And I can also promise you that it's something that very, very few can replicate.

So how do we make the impossible possible or what I call routine on a daily basis? And for me, it always comes down to 3 things: how we manage airflow, what it takes to manage airflow in terms of the materials we use, our core technology, our material sciences, all that, scale and producibility, which means we often talk about the theory of one, which is that it's easier to make one or a handful of our parts. But to do it at the scale yields and volumes that we do it in, I don't think there's anybody that can compete with us. And the third thing is the power of vertical integration, controlling every element of that value chain, from developing our own core compounds to building and designing all of our own tooling, building and designing all of our own equipment, automation, furnaces, providing all of our own alloys, doing all of our own in-house testing all the way through the process to even machining and coating our own products, and in many cases, all of our competitors' products, too.

And so I think that's what anchors our market-leading position in just about every segment that we participate in. And I don't think that's just marketing language. That's backed by decades of qualification barriers we've had to overcome, deep collaboration with our customers and earning their trust and confidence that we can deliver the volume and quality of products that they need. And look, delivery is absolutely what our customers need right now.

I don't think I have to explain to this audience the perfect storm of demand that we're experiencing right now. whether it's commercial aerospace, defense, gas turbines or new and developing markets like space, missiles and drones. Everybody wants more. And that's not just theoretical or cyclical demand. That's backed by aerospace backlogs that go out 12 to 15 years, defense spending that's increasing around the world and electrification demand that, frankly, we've never seen before driven by an aging grid that needs to modernize and expand and significant demand that we're seeing from data center and AI build-outs around the world.

So the question I often get is, can we scale to meet that demand? And my answer is always, yes, and we're already doing it. It starts with our global manufacturing footprint, 30 locations located around the world, all aligned by product lines. That allows us to maximize our capacity utilization across life sites, best practice share across those sites. So we can quickly implement yield improvement programs, reduce scrap and increase our capacity.

Now we're also making investments strategically across our business in areas that typically become bottlenecks like tooling and core manufacturing and castings and coatings. And it's that execution, those investments, that are already paying off and what I would consider to be some pretty impressive financial results. And that's not just cyclical recovery either. That's operating leverage from higher volumes, better yields, more automation, a mix shift to more technologically advanced parts, workforce maturation, a laser focus on commercial discipline and a disciplined capital allocation strategy.

And so look, I like to tell my team that when you can combine technological differentiation with disciplined scaling, I think margin expansion can be meaningful.

And so let's step back for a second and take a look at the journey that's brought us here because I think it's a good perspective to have. And if you go back to the 1950s, to those first turbojets, and if you were to look at those blades, you would find a simple metal blade. Really no technology to speak of. They would often stretch and crack and fail due to the overheating of engines. But it was at that point in time that Howmet really invested to learn how to shape, cast and control metal. And those learnings would pay off for decades to come.

Now what's remained true, it seems, over the years is that every decade, the industry asked for better fuel efficiency, reduced emissions and better time on wing, right. And so as you get into the 1960s, cooling becomes a strategy. Engineers are not yet asking, can we make the metal stronger. They're asking, how do we keep it cooler. And so Howmet launches their first simple, single plane core technology. Now it's also at that point Howmet realizes that core technology is going to be the future. So we start investing significant R&D dollars to understand core materials and core process technology.

Now jump to the '70s, '80s and '90s. And I think that's really where the industry goes through the transformation and Howmet goes through transformation. Think about what's happening in the '70s, right? You have a fuel crisis, regulations are tightening across the OEMs and the airlines. Engines have to run hotter and burn more efficiently just so the airlines can survive. So engineers start tuning alloys at an atomic level. It starts with the progression from [ Equiax ] to directionally solidified where engineers realize, if they can align grains in perfect linear columns, they can create a path where thermal stress will pass through that blade, no transverse boundaries, increasing the life and allowing operating temperatures to increase a couple of hundred degrees.

Now the inflection point comes when engineers realize they can grow a blade from a single grain, a single crystal. No internal boundaries, no weak points. Again, life of the blade increases, operating temperatures increase a few hundred degrees. Now it's at this point that Howmet not only learns how to grow single crystal blades but to do it with an orientation that the OEMs need to match the centrifugal force of the blades, and not only that, but to do it at scale, yields and volumes that make it economically feasible. This is where Howmet's moat really starts to get deep and wide.

On top of that, our core technology is advancing rapidly. We're now launching multi-wall complex serpentine core technology. And if you think about it, engine OEMs, to certify an engine, it now spans years to get done. So they have to lock in on suppliers they can trust to meet their requirements. Switching costs become operationally dangerous at this point.

So as you get into the 2000s, it's not just new metals that are going to allow OEMs to climb the heat ladder. They need a system, a system of single crystal structures, complex cooling schemes and thermal barrier coatings. Howmet is the only supplier that can provide all 3. And so I really think at this point, we're not so much competing on price as we are who the OEM trusts not to fail.

And for Howmet, we don't simply win by selling more parts. We win by being harder to replace. And so we invest significant engineering resources into just about every development program. In fact, we're going to launch more NPI programs this year than we probably ever have in our existence. And we always have an eye towards the future. So whether that's the rise, a ducted version or the new sixth generation fighters, our engineers are working on the platforms and solutions of the future today.

And so look, if you're going to be harder to replace, you have to constantly be pushing the limits, redefining the boundaries on what was once thought to be impossible. And that's what today is all about and what we're going to try to show you this afternoon, the next frontier in core casting and coating technology and how we leverage those to not only resist heat but control it.

And look, it starts with our 3D multiwall fine feature core technology, enabled through additive manufacturing techniques, we're going to show you that this afternoon, in addition to our cast in film cooling technology where we can cast in film cooling holes on locations of the blade previously unreachable by OEMs laser drilling and EDM techniques. And not only can we cast in those film cooling holes in strategic locations. As John mentioned, we can shape the exit holes, maximizing film cooling across the surface of that blade, more importantly, directing that film cooling exactly where the OEMs need it. We can apply complex multilayer coatings with deep IP on how we coat the internal and external surfaces of those blades. We'll show you our latest advancements and investments this afternoon.

Now none of this would be possible without disciplined process control that requires near precision in maintaining core dimensional stability. And so what that means is how well we can balance that core through multiple operations, wax, shell cast, post cast, where just microns of movement result in failure and significant scrap rates that we can't afford and our customers can't afford. And we're on our third generation of core distortion technology, limiting core distortion, which we feel gives a significant competitive advantage over our competition. We'll talk more about that this afternoon.

And so look, john talked about the 2D digital thread. That disciplined process control, that precision is driven by 70-plus years of failing fast and decades of capturing data across every major operation. And now with that digital thread technology, as John mentioned, not only we can capture literally hundreds more key input variables, and with that deep data warehouse, we can now apply data analytics machine learning and AI to improve yields, improve velocity through our operations and ultimately provide better supply to our customers.

So look, I truly believe you cannot control or improve yield through inspection. It has to be through data. Because if you're waiting until CT to determine if that part is good or bad, not only do you lose the value of the part, you lose the capacity with it. So we follow a simple process. You measure early, you measure continuously and you correlate everything. That simply would not be effective if it wasn't for our 2D digital thread technology. We're going to show you real-world use cases of how we use that daily this afternoon.

And so look, I can't emphasize enough that the fabric of our success is our vertical integration, controlling every element of that value chain because our process knowledge compounds itself across each operation. And having that vertical control allows us to address variation in the process with clock speed. And that speed of iteration, equal speed to market. And look, when part of your differentiated technology is your process, are your factories, having that vertical integration helps protect the moat.

And so that's why we develop all of our own core compounds, we build all of our own equipment, all of our own tooling, much different than our competition. And while they may have levels of vertical integration, nobody has the end-to-end control of their process like Howmet does, which is why we're probably coating a lot of their products, too.

And so look, what we're going to show you this afternoon is really focused on our airfoil segment and products. But know that we've transferred all of our process control, our technology, even our most advanced 3D core technology to our IGT customers and products. Now those products bring new challenges and complexities because you're now measuring parts in terms of feet instead of inches. And you still have to maintain that same disciplined core dimensional stability, that precision across very large parts. And that is not easy to do.

The good news is that we're able to leverage our global manufacturing footprint. So we've got dedicated locations and assets focused on this product line not to compete with our airfoils capacity outside of some of our mid-level turbine and aero derivative products. And that's a necessity today given the increased demand that we're seeing from that segment, coupled with the fact that our market-leading share position continues to grow. So you've heard John talk about how we're positioning ourselves to grow and expand in that market in what we believe to be a long market cycle driven by electrification.

And so look, we're clearly in the middle of a super cycle of growth. And that growth has a ferocious appetite for capital. And you've heard John talk about the fact that Howmet is going to have to increase our capital spend over the next couple of years. A lot of those funds are directed at my business. The good news is that with my returns, it's more than enough to get John's attention on the capital. But you've also heard John talk about the fact that all these investments are backed by strong commercial agreements that protect the ROI on each project.

So we have a lot of work to do, but the good news is that we have a long track record of delivering large capital projects on time and on budget and being able to scale those quickly. And you'll see that firsthand this afternoon. And so look, we're going to throw a lot of information at you this afternoon, and I'm going to apologize for that upfront. It's going to be a little overwhelming. But if nothing else, I hope you take away these 3 things.

We're in the middle of a super cycle of growth. No matter what market segment you're talking about, everybody wants more. And Howmet is leading with their technology, speed and scale to market to not only capture that demand but to grow faster than the market, expand our margins and deliver the cash flows needed to support that growth and deliver the returns that our shareholders expect. And it's those investments that we're making today and we will make in the future that will further solidify our market-leading positions.

So thank you very much. I look forward to answering any questions that you have and seeing everybody this afternoon in the Whitehall.

[Presentation]

Good morning, everybody. Tough act to follow, so your attention for the next 20 minutes or so to get focused on our fastener business. I'd like to start by saying that you follow Howmet, and you know that in the last 2 to 3 years, we've made some remarkable progress in the fastener business. We've been posting sequential improvements of revenue, EBITDA, free cash flow. We also enjoy a position of leaderships in the markets we operate, both aerospace and industrial.

I didn't come here to talk about the past. I'd like your attention for the next 20 minutes or so to talk about the future and how we intend to continue to build upon the foundation we built in the last 2 or 3 years, continue to expand our margins, penetrate markets, grow above market conditions so perhaps at the end of my presentation, you share the same confidence that I have that our best days are ahead of us. So please give me our full attention for the next 15 minutes or so.

Okay. An overview of the business. So we are nose to tail in every commercial airframe in the market as well as engines in the aerospace side. We also have solutions for industrial markets that benefit from the types of products we make, particularly commercial transportation and renewable energy. Our products deliver superior performance to our customers by delivering solutions that are needed these days such as lightweight materials, single-sided applications as well as composite airframes, dissipation of lightning strikes, just to name a few.

On the industrial side, our products have remarkable solutions to manufacturing problems, such as welded assembly being replaced by fasteners as well as products that are friendly to be installed in situations like solar farms and wind farms.

This chart is very important because it's a unique advantage of Howmet fasteners. There's no other manufacturer of fasteners in the world that has a truly global footprint. We are present in every region of the world, which allows us to offer solutions of onshore, offshore manufacturing as well as best cross-country. In addition to that, it enables the growth of our distribution business, which I'm sure you've seen has been growing rapidly.

Peeling the onion a little bit more. Our aerospace business is about 80% of our revenue, and we have the broadest portfolio of products and customers. And we offer all types of fastening solutions that are needed by this industry starting from traditional threaded fasteners, both internally threaded and externally threaded, and nonthreaded products such as blind products, pin and collars, all the way to sophisticated latch systems. On the non-aerospace business, we benefit from similar technologies developed for the aerospace customers, delivering value to commercial transportation, particularly replacing welds.

On the renewable energy, these products are typically installed in harsh environments such as wind farms and solar farms. So these products need to be easy to install and not require maintenance throughout their lives, and that's exactly what our products do. For that reason, we enjoy a position of leadership on both markets, both industrial and aerospace. Also like to highlight, there is a significant portion of our revenue that is protected or under intellectual property. So on the aerospace side, about 30%, and on the industrial side, about 40% what we make has intellectual property of Howmet.

So this is the most important chart I have. So at this point, I'd like your full attention because this business, it's a mature business but has several themes of growth that we believe are going to continue to drive our growth above market rates. And I'll expand on each of them.

Starting with innovation, delivering value to our customers based upon their current needs. I'll have a couple of additional slides on this, but it's basically lightweight materials, composite applications, single-sided applications and automation. Capacity and capability, mostly driven by supply chain constraints, where Howmet, partially driven by the global footprint and our ability to invest, we are constantly looking for additional capabilities and looking for additional qualifications.

Market penetration is twofold there. Some portions of the market, we still have the opportunity to penetrate and increase our share. I'll name a few, business jets, MRO, industrial gas turbines, which is a focus of our business at the moment. And I'd like to pause just to talk about distribution for a minute, which is within the markets we're penetrating. In the last 5 years, our business has grown from approximately $50 million to $300 million in distribution services. We intend to continue to grow that distribution business driven by our portfolio, driven by our global footprint and driven by our technology.

And finally, inorganic. The fastener industry, there is a level of fragmentation in this industry that allows for additional inorganic activity. I'll expand more in the coming slides. I'm sure you know we recently announced 2 acquisitions. These acquisitions are aimed to expand our portfolio, add certain capabilities and penetrate the markets I described earlier.

Let's talk a little bit about innovation. A long history of purposeful innovation, very successful history. We have 20 centers with focused product development that's very driven by what the customer needs. So these days, composites are growing. Key platforms such as 787, 777 and even A350 are using composites, and these require better solutions for productivity, for rate increase, ease of installation, single-sided applications, which I will expand in a minute. But as you would imagine, coordinating 2 different employees, one on the inside of the aircraft, one on the outside of the aircraft to install a fastener is a significant issue when you need to increase rate. Lightning strike applications as well. Well, what that does, as you can see, compared to our main competitors, our number of patents is significantly superior as well as our number of trademarks.

I do want to talk a little bit about this particular product. I did spend some time yesterday with some of you talking about the Ergo-Tech family of products. This is a disruptive technology. So this product basically brings it all together to what customers need to automate their assembly lines, to get the rate that they need and reduce installation time. So this product is, again, single sided. So you only need one person or a robot on the outside of the aircraft, and that replaces the coordination of two individuals.

If you think about, for example, an A350, one circle around the fuselage takes about 3,000 of these guys. There are several circles of that in the aircraft. So imagine cutting the labor needs in half. So this product is absolutely phenomenal. We see between 30% and 40% reduced assembly times and the total cost of installation, as a consequence, is significantly lower. But more importantly, it enables rate increases which are needed. Now we have a whole host of Ergo-Tech solutions for metallic applications and nonmetallic applications, such as composites.

A little bit on our inorganic theme. So I'm sure you've heard or seen the announcements. Obviously, CAM, still under regulatory approvals. But what that does to us, it expands our portfolio to nontraditional fasteners. So there's a business of fluid fittings, couplings, heat shields, additional latches, which would expand our reach and expand our portfolio of offerings. In addition to that, there is a smaller fastener business that will bring efficiencies and supply chain opportunities to improve competitiveness.

The Brunner acquisition while smaller in size is actually quite interesting. This acquisition brings capabilities of bigger fasteners both from diameter and length, which traditionally is not a focus of our typical airframe products. And that opens up some potential markets for us, particularly industrial gas turbines where these size fasteners are needed. In addition to that, Brunner has a remarkable asset base, quite impressive, and that brings additional capacity almost immediately for our current business.

So in summary, yes, we have made a lot of progress in the last 3 years. We are confident that these 5 themes of growth that I've expanded a while back, again, innovation, capabilities, market share penetration, distribution business and inorganic will continue to drive Howmet to achieve growth above markets. So I am very confident that our best days are ahead of us.

Thank you for your attention. With that, Johan Wall.

Please take your seat at the front here.

Thank you.

[Presentation]

Good morning, and welcome to the Engineered Structures segment of this morning's presentations. It was great meeting many of you last night and going through some of our products and going through some of these details. Today, we'll take a bit of time to add a bit more color and more depth to not only what it is we do in the Structures group, but how we do it.

The first technical difficulty, what do I do here. Resilient business. Here we go. Yes. Got it. All right.

Well, with that, we'll begin with our journey because I think it's important to talk about how we've achieved what we've achieved in the last couple of years. And it really started with business rationalization. Here, we look to shed some of our businesses that weren't well aligned with our core capabilities. We also looked in cases to optimize our footprint where we had redundancy. But what this also brought was more focus to our management, allowing us to direct our resources to those areas where we can create greater value, focusing on those truly exceptional assets and capabilities that we house.

So as we step from the business rationalization, we move into product mix. And where business rationalization is done with a cleaver, product mix, we start to look at with a scalpel. And here, we start to look for those parts we've accumulated over time that were either highly commoditized, differentiated only with price or those products that just never proved to be a good fit for our processes and capabilities. And as we exit those, we begin to focus on what it is that we do well. And with that, we can then really start to leverage and work into operational excellence, driving in our business, of course, yield, level loading the production through our factories. This, in turn, brings labor productivity, lower indirect spends.

And last on the page but certainly not least is our margin management. You heard commercial discipline spoken earlier. And this is where we really start to focus ourselves to those differentiated products, but also we have that discipline where we're looking at each business unit and each product family inside that business unit to determine where it is that we may not be meeting our expectations or the expectations of our shareholders.

From there, we start to look at the asset base and capabilities we have. A truly unique and differentiated set of assets, exceptional in cases. Here, we really look at the 4 segments of our business units, starting with the titanium products. And what I would say is special in this case is the breadth of our capabilities. We're able to offer all levels of conversion and services that only a small handful in North America would be able to. In our forgings business, this is where we have the famous monuments, the 50,000-ton press, to name one, but supported by many others. These are truly assets the industry depends on, assets that are of national interest based on the programs they support.

And as you step across and you look at extrusions, machinings and assembly, these are often sectors of the market that are considered more commoditized, highly competitive. Even here, we found ways to differentiate ourselves in 3 things: the size in which we operate, larger cross sections in extrusions, greater machining envelopes. We also favor hard metal. And last, we really look to do products that are geometrically challenging, technically difficult, like some of the products that you saw last night in our display. This create barriers to entry that other sectors of this market may not have.

Then as we start to move forward, we see this cohesive strategy form that aligns closely to the market needs. And this has been mentioned, the need for lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft, fighter jets with ever-increasing performance needs, in turn, requiring product geometries and complexity that have not been met in past generations. And our heavy capabilities in titanium lend themselves in favor of this market, a market where wide-body has a composite fuselage and wing, where we see that in future aircraft.

We take those key drivers, those exceptional and extraordinary assets, and we begin to convert it into products that enter the market at several different tiers, all the way from highly controlled titanium. We have our form products, new net shapes that allow us to take weight out of traditional manufacturing processes in closed eye forgings and extrusions and then those final machine products and assemblies.

As we move into the products that those assets and capabilities provide with this optimal footprint, with a better fitted portfolio of parts, we see a well-balanced set of products for the aerospace and defense industry. As I'm sure you all know, our products lend themselves towards widebody, the 787, A350, 777X, Naturally, the content of titanium on these aircraft are greater than single aisle. But we balance that with other products that we would have actually seen over here on the left, our aluminum lithium blades for Pratt & Whitney that engine the A320, our aircraft wheel and brakes that service the entire industry. But obviously, when you look at single aisle and the demand on that product, it's tremendous. It creates this balance.

When we move over to defense, it's well known. We have a very strong content on the F-35 starting with our bulk heads, but also all of our titanium products. This serves as, I would say, the table stakes of our defense business. But it is backstopped by hundreds and hundreds of other applications on legacy fighter jet programs, helicopters, munitions and missiles and also radar systems.

And for those of you that I didn't have a chance to walk through some of our displays yesterday, Vagner had his favorite slide, I also have my favorite slide, and this is it. And that's really when we start putting it all together, where we're able to add greater value for our shareholders through synergy. And here, we have our 787 seat tracks, which were displayed over here on the left. And then to the right, we have the bulk head, which is at the back. Now this is an aluminum bulk head. We brought that just because it weighs a little less and that's what we had available. But we also make the titanium variants, which are even more extraordinary.

In the case of the 787 seat tracks, what appears to be a relatively straightforward machine component, that's only one segment of a 35-foot part that we have all of the value add, all the way from melt, to billet, to extrusion, to weld, to machine, to assembly. And we kept that and deliver it to our customers on time, every time around the world. On the bulk heads, I'd like to say that it's one of the enablers of that aircraft, one of many, but a key enabler to the geometry and performance of that aircraft. It changed the way a fighter jet was put together from a stick frame construction to these large monolithic core forgings.

It actually enabled Lockheed to reduce a similar structure complexity from greater than 150 components that would be fastened and adhered to. Sorry, Wagner, that work to gain you there, a few less fasteners on the monolithic component. But it allowed them to take a product that would require thousands of man hours to assemble in the substructure level would produce lesser strength and meet lesser dimensional tolerances. It's this capability that we work together hand in hand with our customers to really be a part of that program, and it's something we're all very proud of.

So as we look at what we've been trying to achieve in the last couple of years, really, it's a disciplined approach to a dynamic market, a market where widebody has lots of stops and starts. We've had geopolitical events that have blocked out Russian-made titanium. Through all of this, we've been cautious about investment. While some of our competitors have rushed out to add titanium capacity, we've been more inwardly focused staying commercially disciplined.

But as you look at the backdrop, we're ready and well positioned for that wide-body ramp that is going to be upon us -- we have this strong content on the F-35. We see the green shoots of a lot of the new programs, next-generation fighter jet, the F-47, our satellite and our radar systems. The Golden Dome is putting a lot of pressure on our radar capabilities to mention a few.

But to close, I think what's important is I've shared with you our journey. I've showcased our exceptional and extraordinary assets that are critical to the industry, how they align with market needs and how we've been able to bring those together to bring returns to the Howmet shareholders that they've grown accustomed to.

With that, thank you.

[Presentation]

All right. Good morning, everybody. That's a fantastic video. I'm Randall Scheps. I'm going to give you an introduction to the Forged Wheels business a business that I've had the privilege to run for the last 6 years. So what we do in Forged Wheels, as the name would suggest, we supply forged aluminum wheels into the global heavy truck, bus and trailer market under the Alcoa Wheels brand name.

So you've seen the financials of this business. Their financials are quite strong. And this is a business that you'll notice as we go through has got some common threads with the other parts of Howmet that you've heard about today, sort of alloy expertise, metal processing coatings and surface treatments. So you'll see as we go through this presentation that this business is really quite unlike some traditional truck parts business that you might be familiar with or that you might have run across.

So the Howmet advantage really falls into -- there are 4 main pillars to the Helmet advantage, and these all work together to create quite a powerful moat around this business. So the first advantage is we are the #1 global truck wheel brand in the world. We're instantly recognizable within the trucking industry. Everyone knows what an Alcoa wheel is. In fact, you'll run across fleet operators who will refer to the wheels on their trucks as Alcoas, not as aluminum wheels, but as Alcoas. So we compete with steel wheels around the world, and these are typically commoditized steel wheels. And we also have a handful of regional forged aluminum wheel competitors that we compete with, also unbranded.

A little fun fact about the power of this brand within the trucking industry. We have 150,000 Facebook followers to the Alcoa Wheels brand around the world. At sort of various sites around the world, if you sum it all up, 150,000. So this brand really resonates in the industry.

So the second point here is we have full design control over our product. So we control our destiny from the alloy, through the forging, through the machining, through the surface treatment. We control how that technology rolls out. We control where it goes in the world. And what that does for us is it allows us to limit complexity. So we can rationalize SKUs and make the same part in 3 different flow paths around the world, which unlocks economies of scale in this business.

So the third is precision assets. So I've got an asset and, really, an enviable asset base of production equipment around the world. And what these assets allow is I produce at single-digit part per million quality levels, so single-digit PPM. And just for reference, in the industry that we're in, 50 ppm is generally deemed acceptable and good enough. So I operate at single-digit PPMs, which is below a 0.001% defect rate. And that's part of our brand promise. If you go back to element one here, part of our brand promise is quality and durability. So we deliver on that through single-digit PPM.

And then finally, scale. I'm 4x the size of the next largest competitor in the forged wheel business, and that unlocks all kinds of opportunities for automation, allow me to invest in automation, which I'm just noticing watching this video, there were no humans in that video. So that's a little bit of a preview of what I'll tell you a couple of minutes about automation. So heavy investment in automation and vertical integration.

So an example of how vertical integration helps me, when we take a forging and machine it into a wheel, generate a lot of machine chips, aluminum machine chips come off in that forging process. So because I have the scale to afford to build my own cast house, I can take those chips as they come off the machining centers. They go right back into my cast house. I can cast those into new forging billet really almost immediately. So think about the cost and the working capital advantages that, that brings to this business, that level of integration. None of my smaller competitors can touch that. You can't afford that level of investment when you're small.

So what is it that makes this market so attractive in a nutshell, and we'll go into a little more detail on this, but in a nutshell, truck fleets are converting from steel wheels to aluminum more every year. And there are two main forcing functions for that. You've got regulations are improving. The sort of regulations are increasing. Sort of drumbeat of every year, there's more regulation that adds complexity and adds weight to trucks. So the truck fleets are looking to offset that. The other forcing function megatrend is economic. Fleets are under enormous pressure to improve efficiency, and I'll take you through the details of how we can improve efficiency for the fleets. So you have those two big forcing functions that are moving fleets from steel to aluminum.

It's a safety critical part. We love that because a fleet is not going to take a risk on an unbranded, unproven, untested product with no reputation. They're just not going to do that to save money. So that helps us. It's a very large addressable market, about 75% -- depending on the region that you're in, around 75% of all the freight moves on trucks. Obviously, wheels are an important part how those trucks operate. So 18 million truck wheels are sold every year in the markets that we target. About 30% of those are forged aluminum today and we make most of those.

The other 70% are these commoditized unbranded steel wheels. So that is our mission in Forged Wheels, is to take that 70% remaining steel wheels and convert those to aluminum. And that's what we work on every day. So 70% of that market is open and untapped. And the really exciting thing about this is that, that 70% moves down every year. So we're making progress around the world region by region and moving that steel percentage down because of these megatrends. So we really are well positioned to win. We've got this #1 brand. We've got strong financials as you've seen, and we have the asset base to win.

So a little bit about the regions. It's just at a very high level. The market dynamics in these different regions are a little bit different. But you'll see there's a common theme on here, which is that we are #1 in all these regions. So North America is our most mature market. The aluminum adoption is quite high, but our product is also well understood by fleets. So growth in North America will come from us enriching mix with some of our proprietary surface treatments and also the growth of new energy vehicles, which will allow us to drive additional volume in North America.

Europe is very exciting for us now. You see that we have strong share. We have 90% share of the aluminum market in Europe. But that's not even the best part about the European market. The best part is that adoption is only 30% in Europe. So if you think about we have a 70% runway in the European market to convert to steel, it moves forward every year. That 70% gets lower and lower every year thanks to our efforts. Europe is also a huge taker of some of our premium surface products. So Europe is a very exciting market for us.

And then other regions, and this is Brazil and Australia and Japan, a lot of runway for growth and premium surface treatments there as well. So there's a very large untapped market in those other regions.

I want to add one point here, maybe somewhat unique to this business. Aluminum prices have been very volatile. I had a lot of questions last night about aluminum prices, a lot of questions about tariffs. What we do and a testament to the commercial power that we have in this business, we've got agreements in place with all of our customers and we pass all that through. So aluminum goes up, aluminum goes down, we pass that through. Tariffs, same story. We pass that through. So that takes that aluminum and the tariff noise out of our results.

So a little bit more about the megatrends, the regulatory megatrends. You got this constant drumbeat of every -- not every year, but this constant drumbeat of new regulations that are adding complexity, more importantly, adding weight to trucks. So you have fleets' strong desire to offset that weight and make the trucks lighter so they can haul more We, in fact, have a new regulation that's coming on January 1 of 2027, a new emissions regulation. So another example. That's going to add complexity. It will add weight to the trucks. So it just increases that desire by the fleets to pull weight out of the trucks.

And then the second is economic. Running a fleet is a challenging business. They are getting pushed all the time by inflation. They give insurance rates, labor rates, fuel costs. They're constantly battling inflation. And what we can do when we come with a lightweight solution for their wheels, we can save them money. So we always get an audience when we come in and say, hey, we can save you money because they're fighting these elements of inflation.

So the really exciting part about this segment is the chart on the far right here, and that's the adoption of aluminum around the world. So this year, we're going to be right around 30% adoption globally in the markets that we target. But look at where we've come from. So 16 years ago, it was single digit. So it just continues to march upward. That's driven by these two forcing functions that we talked about, regulations and economics. And you can see a little bit different profile. The white in these round charts, that's the untapped opportunity. That's the steel wheels that we're going after to convert.

So what is it that the fleets really need? We talked about running a fleet being a challenging business. They have a lot of market dynamics. Their margins are low sometimes. So what they really want from us is they need lower operating costs. They need lower maintenance costs. They need to be able to haul more freight. And they need ease of maintenance because maintenance is a big expense, and they don't want to have trucks that are down by the side of the road not running. So that's what they need from us.

The last element here is appearance. That one may surprise you a little bit if you have kind of a notion about the trucking industry. Appearance actually is important. In many cases, these trucks are an extension of a consumer brand. So if you think about Amazon, think about Walmart, think about Pepsi, think about Target, the truck is a rolling billboard. It's an extension of a consumer brand. They actually want and they will pay for good-looking wheels.

So here's what we deliver. We deliver all 5 of those elements for fleets with our product. So we can deliver up to 5% of fuel economy improvement. And you think a typical fleet could be paying up to $50,000 a year per truck just in fuel. So if you come in with a fuel savings, absolutely, you get their attention. We can add payload, up to 1,400 pounds more payload. And what that means for the fleets, if they can add 1,000 or 1,500 pounds of payload, that's more revenue with 100% drop through to margin. They absolutely love that. And the best part about the revenue and the payload is that the business case that we offer typically has less than a 2-year payback. So absolutely motivational for the fleets.

World-class quality. We talked about PPMs, That's part of our brand promise, Million-mile durability. I had a lot of questions last night. Typically, the wheel will outlast the truck. So we don't have a big spares business unfortunately, or fortunately, as you may look at it. But these wheels got million-mile durability. We're so confident in these wheels that every wheel we sell has got a 5-year unlimited mileage warranty. And then the icing on the cake for our value proposition is that oftentimes, because our brand is so strong and so well recognized, that when the fleet -- when it comes time for them to trade the truck in after 3, 4 or 5 years, in many cases, they will get most of the upfront expense of spec-ing our wheels.

Most of that upfront expense will come back to them when they trade the truck in after 2, 3 or 4 -- 3, 4 or 5 years. So that's really the icing on the cake. So scale and asset positioning is really where -- how that shines in this market. So scale brings us a couple of advantages that brings us advantages on the commercial side brings us advantages on the operations side.

On the commercial side, I've got connections with every major truck trailer and bus OEM around the world. And I've got -- and we talked about fleets sort of being fleets being very important to us. I've got 50,000 fleet relationships. And the way those relationships work is I've got a sales team in that as fleets are specking new trucks, I'm educating them about my product and asking them to check that box on the new truck order form and spec our wheels. So some of my competitors actually don't even talk to fleets at all. So this network that I have of OEM relationships, the network that I have of distributors, the network that I have of fleet relationships has taken decades for us to create and would be nearly impossible for competitors to match in any kind of reasonable amount of time. And it's very, very powerful. It pays benefits every day. New trucks are being ordered every day. We've got those fleet relationships to get so that we get spec-ed on those new trucks.

A couple of other elements that scale unlocks. Obviously, I've got full value chain control, all the way from alloy to ingot to forging, to machining to proprietary surface treatment, all kinds of proprietary know-how and patented technology in that chain allows me to invest where like competitors can't because I have that scale. And then finally, automation. The scale that I have allows me to invest in automation. We decided about 5 years ago, we were going to really lean into automation in this business and have reached a point now where I've got close to 500 robots in this business, which to put that in perspective, we've got 1 robot for every 2 employees -- every 2 human is working on the production floor, 1 robot for every 2 humans.

So we are well set up to generate that next level of advantage from machine learning and AI because this is just so highly automated. A little bit about our technology. You see from the hardware in the back here, we've got some interesting surface finishes that fleets really value. We've got 150 patents and trade secrets that are protecting our technologies. I'm going to just highlight 2 of the technologies here. There are many more. These are the 2 that really are drivers for us. Number one is Dura-Bright, and this is a proprietary surface treatment. And what it does is it locks in that shiny image of a new wheel and then maintain it for the life of the wheel. So the wheel look shining coming out of the factory. 5 years later, still look shiny. The fleet doesn't have to maintain it other than run it through a truck wash and it maintains that great look and it's also corrosion-resistant. This is a very high-value product for us. Fleets love it, especially in Europe and this is a nice upsell for us.

The second element here is it's really a suite of technologies, the foundation of it being our MagnaForce alloy, which is a patented alloy that we developed specifically for truck wheels, our competitors don't have access to this. And when we combine it with our design know-how and our process know-how, we can create a wheel that's 17% lighter than anyone else can. We're the only ones that have this alloy, competitors don't have it. So just to sum up, we've got a fantastic business. You've seen the margins. You've seen the working capital profile, well positioned with a nice moat around it in an attractive and growing segment. The #1 brand in the world, nobody can even touch it instantly recognizable within the trucking industry. We've got full design control, which allows us to manage complexity, keep the SKU count down so we can get those economies of scale.

Fantastic assets, vertically integrated. So we control every step with those proprietary processes. And then finally, the scale of being 4x our competitors, which unlocks all kinds of opportunities around automation. So there's a tremendous amount of pride in this product. I hope you can feel it, and I really enjoy taking everybody's questions last night. I love to talk about truck wheels, tremendous amount of pride in this product. So what I would invite you to do is the next time you're stopped in traffic next to a big rig, take a glance over at the wheels on that truck and take a look for that logo. And then think about how cold wheels when you see it. So thank you.

I almost had to pull Randall off the stage otherwise, you'd been talking about wheels for the next 2 hours. You're probably gathered by that, Patrick.

Yes. Okay. So I'm Patrick Winterlich and I'm now honored to be the CFO of Howmet. I joined about 3 months ago. And I have the pleasure this morning of kind of wrapping up before the Q&A, it with some numbers to let you know how the company has progressed over the last several years, and that's been a fantastic progression. So I'm honored to do that. So as you can see on this chart, a 9% revenue CAGR at a very solid growth, and that has led to a 17% adjusted EBITDA CAGR at an 870 basis point climb in the percentage margin, and that's top decile performance, which wouldn't surprise you. That has then in turn, led to a 37% adjusted EPS CAGR, even more impressive. We've seen a 50% reduction in our interest expense, and I'll come back to our sort of capital asset deployment and improvement in the balance sheet later and a 640 basis point in our operational tax rate.

So all of that, you can see 9%, leveraging 17%, leveraging 37%. That is a great progression, and that's what we need to maintain. And all of that has then led to $4.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow over that period. And over that period, we have averaged over 100% free cash flow conversion against net income. So a fantastic platform from what you've seen the presidents present. So what have we done with that?

We have deployed all that cash in various ways. In the first way is we have strengthened our balance sheet dramatically over that period 2020 to 2025. We've reduced gross debt from $5.1 billion to $3.1 billion, so down by $2 billion. That has improved and helps to improve our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage. So our debt comes down, our EBITDA has grown. That leverage has improved significantly from 3x to 1x where we finished 2025. Our pension and OPay liabilities, the gross liability, you can see the small chart there on the bottom corner. We've gone from $2.9 billion to $1.4 billion and as you all know, pension liabilities are not what you want on the balance sheet. And so turning that growth -- reducing that gross liability by 50% is a tremendous step forward, and we continue to look and work on them.

$2.4 billion on share repurchases. That's about 33 million shares. So I think we finished the year at about 404 million. That's 33 million shares fewer than we had in 2020 and $430 million on dividends and you will have seen us move from $0.02 to now where we are $0.12, and that equated to about $180 million in 2025. So this is a busy chart, and I'm not going to walk through all these numbers, but it's really the shape.

And if you look at the 4 businesses, you can see '23, '24, '25, all those margins are climbing. Tremendous performance across engines, fasteners, structures and wheels. And you can even see compared to 2019, 3 of the businesses are now at a much higher level than we were in that peak year. The only reason wheels isn't is because of the dilution of the aluminum costs running through that business. The underlying performance, the conversion margin, if you exclude the metal cost is much better. So all 4 businesses have done tremendously well. There's no outlie. Everything is strong is my message here. And that's led to the bottom line, where you can see how that finished at 29.3% or 720 basis points higher than we were in 2020.

So a consistent, solid performance moving upwards. And what is all that built on? Well, it's all built on what the 4 presidents talked about. And so on the left side here, you've got technology and solutions. Howmet is a leader in the technology it has. The material science, the process technology and the capability to do that at scale and to deliver the quality of that scale. That is an incredible asset. And we do that to meet the solutions and provide the technology and solve the problems for our customers. As you've heard about this morning addressing the higher temperature, higher pressure requirements in modern ad engines. That's crucial. Very few people in the world can do it and Howmet does it fantastically. Howmet is well positioned with the titanium and the fasteners to meet the growing composite adoption in the world on modern aircraft, lowering maintenance costs through the structures and the materials we provide and the equipment we provide with them. And then that's very relevant today, fuel economy with oil touching $100 a barrel, you just heard the narrative from Randall about the fantastic Alcoa brand of Wheels, that Howmet brings to the space.

And then with -- so what do we bring? We bring products and commercial strategy, an exceptional product offering, operational excellence through innovation, automation, and the footprint, which I think almost all the Presidents alluded to that you can see across the globe, Howmet has a fantastic presence to meet the markets and to satisfy the customer demand we have. And then you have the commercial strategy, the commercial excellence. Some of you will have spoken to Mike on actually last night, who leads a lot of that along with other people. But Mike is front and center of that Howmet. We have long-term deep commercial relationships with many partners around the world. We capture price. And believe me, Mr. Plant knows how to capture price and share through LTAs. And again, as you've heard some of the presidents talk about, our contracts allow us to pass through materials, inflation and tariff impacts, which really help protect and boost Howmet's margins.

And the cost competitiveness through the scale, through that global footprint through the technology is hopefully there for everyone to see. So now looking forward beyond 2025 a little bit, and I'm really just referencing the midpoint of the 2026 guidance that we provided in February. So you can see on this chart, we're growing to $9.1 billion of revenue at the guidance midpoint in 2026 or 70% increase in revenue over 2020. We're moving to 30.3%. EBITDA margin, up 970 points, and that translates into an EPS increase of 475% if we hit the $4.45. But again, our midpoint guidance calls out in 2026. So that platform is there and it's going to deliver more growth in 2026. And that revenue, those margins translate into more cash, and you can see between 2020 and 2025, we grew over $1 billion of free cash flow from under $400 million to over $1.4 billion, a 30% CAGR and we're now guiding to $1.6 billion at the midpoint in 2026.

All the while, free cash flow conversion has averaged more than 90%, which is the target we've talked to, well over 90% between 2020 and 2025. And we've done that while we've invested in the capital requirements over $1.5 billion in that period 2020 to 2025.

Another way to look at cash generation, sometimes known as free cash flow margin or free cash flow as a percentage of revenue. You can see the -- really, really -- and if any of you look at these statistics, these are very strong numbers, especially for a heavy manufacturing company. 10.3% in 2023. And now we're guiding to a very healthy 17.6% at the midpoint in 2026. And we're going to push beyond that as we go forward.

We see the opportunity to grow that even further. So what is all that built on? Again, you've heard the presidents talk to it, but just to go over it, a strong operating playbook. Growth above market, the differentiated products, the technology we have just provides a really fantastic foundation to keep that going. We've got this very strong potential to increase margins across our entire platform, productivity, automation, the adoption of AI. You're going to see some of that this morning when we go to White Hall, the foundation is fantastic for continued growth. We focus very -- and John and the team and the presidents are very focused on allocating capital to where we're going to get the best growth and the best returns.

Now 70% of our capital, about $450 million, 70% of that $450 million in 2025 went towards engines. That business is growing very strongly. The other businesses also get invested in, but we're going to be very selective and very targeted on where we get the best returns.

Cash flow. We continue to aim at the same target, 90% cash flow conversion against net income. And we're developing that fortress balance sheet that you've heard us talk about before. And that fortress balance sheet gives us optionality when it comes to capital deployment. And just to talk about that capital deployment, as I wrap up here, you can see 2020 to 2025. We deployed over $2 billion, $2.1 billion to reducing debt, gross debt, share repurchases of $2.4 billion. We paid $400 million of dividends. And whilst doing all that, we paid -- we've invested $1.5 billion in capital expenditure. So a fantastic history of deployment.

But now we look forward, where do we now go. And so as we look at the 2026 priorities, we continue to be very disciplined and look for growth and returns, and we've guided to $470 million of CapEx at the midpoint. We're now working to complete our investment, our M&A, our acquisition of CAM for $1.8 billion, which is going to further strengthen and enhance our fasteners business. We're also going to remain in a disciplined way, in a focused way, vigilant for further M&A opportunities.

We're going to be generating the cash, generating the capital to have that opportunity, but we're going to be very selective. We do not want to dilute what we want today. We want to continue to strengthen. We expect our share buyback in 2026 will be above 2025. And while doing all that, we remain very, very focused and disciplined in terms of our overall strategy. And so our leverage ratio, we expect to be around 1 at the end of 2026, and we can only do that because of performances that you've heard about this morning. And so to wrap up, we're working hard to build the financial muscle to do it all. And thank you for all listening this morning. And with that, I'm going to hand it back to John.

Thanks, Patrick. So I think my 2 colleagues are going to rejoin. I was getting a bit concerned at 1 point. I assume it's a bathroom break, but they might have feared your questions. So I think we have about half an hour. So we can -- if you have any questions, that is.

Yes. Give me a favor. We have mic runners in the room. So wait until you get a mic and then please give your name and affiliation. Why don't we start with Peter here in the front.

Peter Arment with Baird. Thanks, John and the rest of the team, giving us great details. Maybe a big picture question, but we've heard comments from SpaceX talking about the way they cast components they're wrapped their engines. They've done it in a rapid scale, and we've seen 3D printing for solid rock promoters for other companies. And we're just wondering when I'm thinking about Merrick's sort of fastest [indiscernible], like any impact when we think about 3D printing, why we aren't seeing more in the businesses that you're involved in?

Let me have the first go and then if Merrick wants to supplement. So we use 3D printing. But we're also very selective where we use it. So in some of the inserts that you're going to see as you go through the plant today. Some of those things that go into making these parts because of the complexity of them and they don't -- the stake of manufacturing is that they don't have some of the sheer forces that we have to make from the metal parts. So we do use it to produce extremely complex shapes. So we are familiar with it. We have experimented with 3D metal printing as well. So obviously, that's composite plastic and composite types, metal printing, essentially everything that we looked at was never able to withstand the sort of forces that Mark was talking about. So imagine the sheer force and the centrifugal force with the stretch of compression then when you've gone to a single crystal structure that provides a limit integrity, which is not possible with the current generations of, I'd say, additive printing.

I'm also being quite leary about when we have experience that we printed like latches for Airbus, as an example, and we both came to conclusion that it wasn't worthwhile. I say -- won't be one said in the future, but it didn't achieve anything. The costs were actually higher. And so like what was the point of doing is when you're going to produce higher cost parts. Now -- is it possible in certain aftermarket applications where the volume variety is very different to what we're trying to do, it has applicability that may be -- and then the question is where do you capture value? Where is the profit pool in, say, metal additive printing.

And I think -- you can see the benefits of the people who design the different alloys and detonation of these metallic particles that go into it to where it's in a power or a wire form. So that's a profit pool and the person who, let's say, adds together 15 components can produce them in 1. I think that's a big benefit for the recipients of that, let's call it maybe more the end customer.

I think the middle ground is the person who has to invest in all of the machinery to do additive printing gets squeezed between those two and so I don't judge the profit pool is of sufficient interest for us to spend a lot of time at it, nor is it be applicable to any of the parts that we do. So having said we made it on both. Anybody else would like to add any points seen from fasteners engine or anything.

Yes. I would just maybe just add that again, you'll see where we're using additive and 3D printing this afternoon and where we think it makes sense in our business. It comes down to that -- I talk about the 3 things: scale and producibility, right? We're not there yet on the metal side of it. You can see it in space because of the low volume of parts. But it wouldn't fit in right now with our hungry.

And solid rocket [indiscernible] have a different, I would say, stress back from the nozzles, the force's in one direction, not in multiple directions.

I had a comment for fasteners. Well, we always need to be vigilant with the new technologies and their adoption. Fasteners is probably 1 of the last in the order of priorities that technologies like this will eventually get to. You don't really get a lot of metal benefits of savings because of the shapes of fasteners are typically cylindrical. So you don't get a lot of benefits of the 3D and also the risks associated with a joint that may not pass with compared to technologies that have been established for a long, long time. I will not discard, but I would say to you, unlikely at the moment.

John?

John Godyn here at Citi. John, I wanted to follow up on IGT and the outlook. You had a great slide that had a number of charts where you showed demand through 2030 and then 2035. A lot of those charts seem to suggest that the growth rate between '25 and 2030 was a lot more than the kind of $1 billion to $2 billion doubling in revenue that you're forecasting. So I'm just kind of curious, upside risk to that $2 billion. Maybe you could just elaborate on the outlook for IGT.

I did point out that I don't only covered that segment of the market. So it may look better. So I did want to make sure that I say it again because you're looking at this slice of the market, therefore, the percentage growth is higher if you look at the, let's say, total electricity demand, then obviously, it's a much lower percentage because of the baseload for, let's say, other industries homes, et cetera, et cetera. But the pure data center elements driving our growth is higher than -- it would lend you to that conclusion except for you need to take account of what's the electricity demand is what we're trying to serve for the whole of the load throughout the say, whether it's the U.S. or the globe.

So I only showed U.S. graphs there, not for the world again. And we are truly serving every market. So whether it's, let's say, any often, when it's Mitsubishi Heavy, Siemens, Power, over in terms of the [ Ansaldo ] for the large gas turbines, then you have to look to all of their end markets and all the aggregation of that demand. And so they also see that -- so in my discussions with them and trying to get comfortable with us deploying the amount of capital we are is what is the data center underpin what does it look like through 2030. What does it look like beyond 2030? And also, the themes of what's going to be the electricity demand and use of power sources in Europe beyond some of the energy markets, I think we're already disrupted by what we've seen recently.

And then also, for example, in the U.S., we also have to consider if the demand for -- from data center is so big, how much comes from the grid, how much comes from individual, I'll say, independent, I would say, power generation. And then what's left for -- we talk about the consumer. We talk about data centers. We don't talk about other industrial requirements. And I think we're going to see a lot of mini and micro grids established whereby we'll see the continued rise of the midsized gas turbines throughout the 2030s as well being installed to support manufacturing plants around the world, including in the U.S. to achieve that. So I'm interested in what does the demand look like 3 years, 5 years, in 2032, 2035 and throughout.

It forms a view of how much capital that we are willing to deploy to those markets and how we pass between them, between existing technologies. The newer ones because all the things that I'm holding here going into the new generations of some of these type of turbine blades, and at very different rates between different customers. And so there's a tremendous amount going on in that market. So I just want to say that was a segment there's always a danger in showing a segment rather than the whole electricity demand.

It does seem like the upside -- or the bias is to the upside on that $2 billion, though, based on everything you just said.

Well, it also requires turbine manufacturers to be able to manufacture the turbines and all the things we've experienced in commercial aerospace over the last few years of their supply chains and ability to put them together. So I think we're going to be doing our part of it, but ultimately, it always comes to what's the weakest link in the chain, and therefore, we have to like apply a cautious lens to it, let's say, how we feel.

Thank you. I got to mic here.

I'm glad I'm not doing it, PT is directing.

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist Securities. Maybe at the risk of not making friends. It sounds like Randall, you take tremendous pride in the business. Wheels only 10%. It's got a tremendous market opportunity globally. Does wheels make sense in the portfolio over the longer term, kind of fighting for resource allocation with some of these mega trends in aerospace defense, I think.

If you've got something, it's a bit like my children, I love each of my children equally. And -- so I love each of the businesses equally because I'm going to say I give them the amount of resource allocation equally, that's a different matter. So if Merrick's like tall and growing like a weed, then maybe he deserves a bit more if he's going to build some muscle as well. But no Randall deserves and if we have wheels in the portfolio, then we must make it a good part of the portfolio and be willing to invest. Again, relative priorities and you have to be -- we look at it on a hammer basis, not a wheels basis or a fasteners basis, it's what -- now does each business have to justify its place in the portfolio? Of course.

I mean it's all a question of try to look at it in a very dispassionate way as well, like what's the value that we can create from owning the business compared to what's the size of the bag of gold you're willing to offer me for the business. So I'm also discussing have to say I think I will do the right thing for the shareholders. So Mike, if Truist and your affiliates point a bigger bag of gold in front of me, I might get tempted to sell wheels, but not today, and it's unlikely you can afford it where it makes sense, but that's how we look at it. So no Randalls are valued part of the portfolio. And if you don't think that way, you shouldn't have it.

Why don't we pass to Sheila?

Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Maybe for Merrick and John. In engines, can you talk about the conversations you're having today, Merrick? I think you said this is the most -- this year, you'll have the most new product introductions. How that's helping you gain content in your revenue algorithm and how you think about where we are both on the aerospace side and the next uniter side in terms of the new engine build, how you're balancing investment in the build and how you think about folks like crack building up their own castings capacity.

Yes. I thought that statement that Merrick made might get us into trouble. But I mean when we talked about it to now, it's -- first of all, it's true that we do have a large amount of new product introductions, which I suppose, in 1 sense, it's pretty exciting. i don't think I'm going to pick out like a list of the top 5 for you. But it is good. The flip side of NPIs in any manufacturing business is a bit to screw it up. And it is always 1 where -- as you know, we go through learner curves on these because of the complexity of some of the products. So there's an appropriate, I'll say, amount of caution on like where are we should do, what yields will get, how we'll improve them as we go through the year into 2027. So the way I look at it is that those NPIs are going to be progressive through the year. And they're going to be carefully controlled. So we keep ourselves in, I'd say, in good shape. And some of them, you actually are going to see bigger benefit as we going to '27 than you'll see in this year, both as the volume scales and also the -- I'll say, the improvement as we get in yield as 3 months in, 6 months in a year and then you see very different outcomes in terms of those as we have to learn. Merrick, anything you'd like to add?

No, I just said yes, each program has its own story, but they do -- they continue to build ramp throughout the year and into 2027. And we're -- it's really across our business, whether it's air foils or IGT or structures. We've got new product interductions across the across the segment.

And I think the final part of the question was, did we -- were we worried about who was it you were saying?

[indiscernible].

It's not easy to do, and is each time anybody thinks that they may, let's say, consider doing some things in the investment casting market. Then if you listen carefully to it, we moved the goalposts by a considerable amount. And so the best example I can give you like in terms of like so what has happened, if you look at the -- take the F-35 and its engine. The original plan was that, that would be dual-sourced. That was the Department of Defense back in the -- those times in the 2016 or something period. And it was meant to be, I think, 70% for Howmet and 30% for our competitive as it was. I mean that was 20 years in the development of that level of technology.

So it takes it takes -- if you looked at -- this is an example holding in my hand, which as you know, 1 thing I forgot to mention while I degress, is that you see it now, then you don't see it. So win some money in the room crumbled one of these things up last night, whoever it may have been, is that we -- I think we did try to retrieve the parts [indiscernible] did because we were worried about you chemically analyzing them to see what would have been done because you see what you'll see today is you'll see it of course, in the final deliver product to customer, which is metal, it's all disappeared. So all of the control that went into the core towards the wax, everybody it is then sucked out and dissolved and disposed of that you'll never find and never see it. And so you don't know what it's got.

So I'm going to put this 1 and back in my pocket as I would drop it and whatever. And when you think about it with the -- we talked about third-generation tolerance control. So you look at where we've moved to since 2021. And so that level of [indiscernible] control that we had back in the, let's say, 2018, '19 period, when it's 70-30, but our competitor was never able to get qualified after 20 years of development. 20 years is a long time, and they weren't able to get there, is that then when we did the LTA renewal, we contracted it 100% across the turbine. Now what does that do -- you have the simplest level, will you get a bit extra guaranteed profit and cash flow. Well, that's like, yes, but that's not the reason why we would be willing to do it. It's because it actually stops somebody else learning how to do it.

And if you think about the things we've been talking about, when we've talked about what's the balance between price and share, it's always been a conversation. I'm not interested in necessarily taking our shares down to want to grow above market, but gaining that share has been really important to it because every time we gain a scale advantage, it's really important to us because it gives us a level of ability to invest in automation, which you saw in the previous generation of what we showed you so.

But now if you imagine that we've moved the goalpost both on the technical front, and on the ability to automate and on the digital thread, then it's made it even more difficult for somebody to compete with us on an equal footing. And so when we think about the things we're doing for, let's say, the next-generation military engines. So think those engines, which will go into the -- either the F-35 upgrade or the F-47 maybe it's going to be -- I mean, every 1 of those is going to be at another level. And we're able to take the technology to another level. So we're working on solutions, which enable additional temperature ratings, additional thrust, does it carry weapons payload and all of these things.

And then in recent ones where we've done in the rotorcraft programs is that we've again sought to be it high share possible. So what we've done is where the policy has been, we want dual source. And we said, yes, we'll do it for you, but you can dual source it to Howmet.

Now what do I mean by that? Well, we'll put part of the production in this state and part of a production in that state. So you have supply security and which is what is necessary supply security, so that those military assets are able to keep flying through any form of confrontation and have, let's say, immune to, let's say, fire or explosion or anything else that might go on. And so because the technology such that we've moved the goalposts to enable the performance that's required. It's like giving us a unique technological advantage, which you want to do. So we keep pushing it. So it's driven by the technology mode, driven by the volume mode, driven by the risk scale, scale giving us what me and Randall talked about the amount of, I'll say, machine assist in automation.

And again, these parts now, a lot of them, you actually don't want a human -- this was proven last night. Anybody that picked it up and they said, I'll shoot up damaged it. Well, you don't want the human to touch it. You really don't because when we do it, we actually also place them in a certain way. So the things that we don't talk about, is it flat? Is it a side? Is it [ move to ] things? So then we will covered in, let's say, wax, they will put it into -- we'll insert the seeds that go in to grow the crystals. And at what angle do we do it when we nest them and it's like -- so we -- like multiple paths of -- multiple metal moving through nesting systems where these things are going.

We also handle them at different angles. So we're controlling the rate of flow of metal, the viscosity of the metal and also the orifice is how fast does it flow? And then it's there's a lot of stuff that goes into this. So I'm getting quite carried away now. I mean as long we're saying we're trying to move it. So it makes it difficult for anybody that wants it. And as Merrick said, it really is -- it's relatively easy to make one in a lab, but making 10, 100, 1,000, making several thousand a week, that's really difficult. Merrick, anything you want to add?

No.

Okay. We are going to go to Matt, back.

Matt Akers from BNP Paribas. Could you talk about structural castings. I think it was one of the only areas you mentioned in the presentation where you're not #1. So as you kind of look at the opportunities ahead of you, does it make sense to kind of invest and become #1 in that market? How do you think about kind of gaining share over time?

Our strategy has been, first of all, a saving principle that, do we want to improve our relative market position? Yes. Have we been doing so? Yes. Have we been going about it? Well, we thought probably 5, 6 years ago, and it's the same strategy now because we tend not to change them very much. Is that -- where our competitor is number one in that Precision Cast parts. So they were the big guy on the block. And it didn't seem to make sense to us to just try to go head-to-head with somebody who's got the capital assets in place already.

They've got the tooling in place already. They've got the experience of making those parts in a way. So to go in mid-cycle and try to rest parts away from them, in my view, is stupid. It's too strong maybe, but not of the greatest sense because what have I got to do? I've got to put in new capital assets. So I'm not on yesterday's depreciated assets. I've got to build new tooling. I've got to spend 2 years, 3 years in qualification. I'm going to spend 2 years in going through a learner curve process to be able to produce at rate that compete with the yields.

So every part of the economics that I would have on yield, cash deployment and therefore, expected returns, in my view, it was not a very sensible mission to take on. Now does it make sense that where we have some special capabilities. So like for us, we're really, really good at small and round stuff, putting in the very basic terms. And so we made it there. We looked at other areas that were coming up or where there were supply difficulties, and there was a justification for us to enter.

We also have engineered ourselves onto a lot of new programs. So rather than try to compete on yesterday's LTA, which is on a renewal program because the engines are still running, we looked at what's coming up new. And then we deployed all our engineering resources to make sure that we engineered onto -- so we put a plan out there is the whole engine. There's the 20 structural castings of that engine. So we will cluster ourselves all over that next one that's coming through. So that what it would do is as and when those -- so those products came to market in the engine space that we were there and we would naturally first of all, grow, and we would naturally, I will say, take share and do it from a sensible set of capital deployment because the other thing about structural casting business, why -- it also has different hallmarks to it -- because of the capital intensity, so it's even you'll see extraordinary capital intensity in the turbine blade business, structural casting is a level above that because the size of the [indiscernible] size of the furnaces as an example.

But you don't have the aftermarket, you get very few that require, I would say, change in an MRO business, where it is very different in the things that we make, and I really like being on the wearing part of the engine because of that volume. So if you look at some of the high running programs that we have, we ended up where the -- after the volumes going into the service sector into the -- through the customers or the MRO shops is as high as what's going to OE.

And that gives you a level of repeatability and also a life going to the future. So you take the 1 we are all working like [indiscernible] the CFMT6, that stop production essentially. I mean 1 or 2 engines a year, but stop production 5 years ago. Today, we're making more of those parts today in 2026 that we did in the last -- any year in the last decade. And that's the wonderful thing about positioning yourself, right, thinking your way through what gives you that sustained advantage into the future. And what's more, the volume is going to go up again this year. So what could be better than that. And now it's gone past model, and therefore, the pricing structure is different as well. So you have to really think where do you want to be the big guy on the block and an [indiscernible] where you're not, how are you going to improve where you are.

But at the same time, don't take on what just to be a suicide mission of just throwing the forces at the castle or the fort or whatever you want to call it. I'm just getting my [indiscernible]. That's not what I call being a good businessman. Well, you can call me a whim, whichever you want to do. I don't mind. I'm very relaxed about it.

We go to Ken.

John, I wanted to follow up on some of your comments you made on the digital investments you're making. Do we see this reflected maybe across the segments? I think you were specifically talking about the engine business. In margins, how do we maybe better sort of gauge the return on these investments you're making, maybe a better top line growth through yield? Maybe just a bit more detail on how we see that flowing through in the scope of these investments. And and how they can really impact the business.

You're an area now, let's call it, machine learning and artificial intelligence, how do we apply it and where do we apply it in the company, which is a really big topic. And I would like to believe that -- I try to educate myself as much as possible, like where are other companies who is at the forefront of this and where do we stand? Because there's a lot of talk, maybe a lot of hype. And how does -- I am not talking about me as an individual using Claude, the Anthropic search engine or something like that or ChatGPT. I'm talking about now using some of these, let's say, large language models to model our data. And I think the biggest payoff for how that is in our manufacturing operations more so than in our offices. Now I'm not saying that there are things to be done there as well. But in terms of gaining control of manufacturing and weight offers as by way of, let's say, yield and smoothing everything out.

I think those opportunities are vast. And so where I choose to spend my time thinking about it and we've had reviews collectively and individually with each of the businesses and I think the last one was even 2 weeks ago, and it was -- that was more centered on the engine business and how we're applying camera systems and a series of images that we gain, how we're using CT scans, how are we using X-ray images and all this sort of thing, also in terms of things we heard about digital thread because there's lots of threads even within that subject.

I think we're still at the infancy quite honestly, because we try to put into place those things that we have the bandwidth to do -- and what I mean by that is that we've been under such stress for deploying our capital in new facilities. I think you know we're -- we have built 3, I think, new manufacturing plants extended to. And we've just bought another site in a brownfield and we're sort of reorganizing another one. We've got a lot going on. But the best place for us to deploy these I'll say, potential control techniques of using artificial intelligence is where we can gather the data and put the sensors on the machine. So putting sensors on, let say, measuring the vibration in machines, measuring the temperature or measuring the pressures in molding machines and so on in a very detailed way in how they affect the part.

And so we're -- I don't want to say experimenting, we're certainly not more than showcasing it. We're actually doing it in the plant you're going to see today. But that is not representative of the whole company. It's not representative of even what we do on the white haul side because we looked at plant 1, we upgraded a few years ago, maybe 2021? And then was it Plant 10? I don't know, I always get confused by the numbers, in 2015 or something.

So you see the generations, but those machines don't have all the sensor capabilities that we have. And so you can not achieve anything in my view on artificial intelligence in manufacturing if you don't have the data. And to get the data, you have to fit all your machines with optical systems, with sensors on measuring all of the facets of that machine.

And we have a capital base developed over tens of years, which doesn't have that -- so in the case of John's business in our structural -- structures business, while we've upgraded many of those like large forging presses to the latest and greatest in hydraulics and control systems, they don't have all the center capabilities that we require to have data capture to go the next part of the journey. But what you shouldn't take for that, therefore, we're, let's say, [indiscernible] certain parts of that. What we're doing is thinking our way through where do we want to put those sensor data gathering systems? How can we apply it? What control points do we want? And so we're working our way through methodically like like oil dispensation in a forging press at 1,500 degrees, how much even to we want to spread that oil before the forging press get that, all those things? And how do we meter it rather than just spray it in there. It's good enough, spray a bit of oil.

You've got to gather that data. So it's a journey which is going to take us, I don't know, 5 years more. But the important thing is that we're thinking about it playing resources, we're spending money at it and I think have a clear-eyed, well-thought-out program of what we want to do and also spending time. So when I go to Japan in April, it's not just a bit of a customer, not just because our new client, but I'm trying to look at what's the least and greatest I see in robotic manufacturing where AI is being applied? And can we keep up with the people who are at the forefront of this in the world, and that's what we're seeking to do.

So I'm just trying to describe to you, this is a journey we're on. And I think we because if we can apply it where all of that, all those new things are coming through for us in our new plants, that's maintaining control at the forefront of the manufacturing and product and materials technologies where we're using it then to also change our chemical compositions on shrink rates as an example. We're actually applying AI for that today already. And it's fascinating, but we're applying it where it matters, the stuff that's new coming through, not trying to think we're going to spread our energies of everything because we don't have it.

We pretty much maxed out on a lot of despite recruiting hundreds of engineers and we have. Its because we are maxed out just because of all the opportunities at the moment, my -- for me, it's clustering the waterfront and to make sure that I've got that contract, that contract, that customer to gain that revenue. And I can fill in afterwards a bit of automation and a bit of AI, my view of the world.

I think that's a good place to stop. We run out of queue.

You sure? Because there's one guy that has been putting his hand up. I've got 1 more question. Rob has been trying for so long. And I mean he's got the right accent.

It's the British matter. Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Actually a question for Merrick. My question on have you mentioned patents. I think it trademarks and how you had way more than your competitor. I was wondering how this works. Is that a patent over the actual part? Or is that a patient over the process? And how difficult does that make it for your customer to subsequently give that work away to someone else?

I'm sorry, I didn't catch that.

The patent side, I'll cover it for you. So I'm going to rescue you.

Okay.

So we don't have patents over the design. That's not what we do. We work together to co-design. So we explain what is the [indiscernible] possible. So we can take -- they can take -- or jointly, we can take those design limits to its extreme and to achieve that. But all the things like how do we -- all the things I talked about, what goes into making one of these, what goes into the temperature we cast at, the angles we cast that, how we position crystals, how we have, I would say, models to look at how we gate, how we run what angles would do, what cooling that we do with different parts of the -- I think that's all Howmet's technology. But the final IP, so let's say the part that goes into a GNX engine on a 787, then those turbine blades will have -- the design control will reside with our customer, GE. And so then they also them because part of the, I'll say, the dealers, they control effectively the route to the aftermarket to the MRO shop. So we don't go directly to the MRO shops around. We have to have a different, I'll say, strategy altogether if we did that and we choose not to for, I think, good reason.

Thank you. Can I close up? I think we'll close up here.

Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Patrick, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings. In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS, mean adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income, excluding special items and adjusted EPS, excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Thank you, PT. Good morning, and welcome to Howmet's Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. Let's start with the highlights on Slide #4. Q4 was an extremely solid quarter. Revenue of $2.17 billion was up 15%. Full year revenue was up 11%, and hence, the final quarter saw an acceleration of growth. EBITDA was $653 million, up 29%. Our operating income was $580 million, an increase of 34%. Full year EBITDA of $2.42 billion was an increase of 26%. Free cash flow after record capital spend of $453 million was $1.43 billion, which is more than $100 million above the guidance and a 93% conversion of net income. .

Over the last 6 years, aggregate net income conversion to free cash flow has been 95%. Earnings per share were $1.05, an increase of 42% in the quarter over 2024, resulting in a 40% increase for the year. Capital deployment in the quarter included $200 million of share buybacks, $50 million of dividends, $55 million for preferred share redemption and a further $125 million for debt reduction. The closing cash balance was $743 million, allowing for further share buybacks in January and February with $150 million completed quarter-to-date.

I'll stop at this point and let Patrick provide commentary by end markets and by segment.

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Please move to Slide 5. Another solid quarter for Howmet's with end markets continuing to be healthy. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Revenue was up 15% in the fourth quarter and up 11% for the full year. Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year. Commercial aerospace growth is driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Commercial aerospace engine spares were up 44% for the full year, driven by both legacy and next-generation engines.

Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Defense aerospace was up 21%, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds. Commercial transportation revenue was up 4% in the fourth quarter. However, it was down 5% for the full year, including the pass-through of higher aluminum costs and tariffs. On a volume basis, wheels was down 10% in the fourth quarter and down 13% for the full year.

We continue to outperform the market with Howmet's premium products. As mentioned on the Q3 earnings call, we have combined the oil and gas and IGT markets into a single market we are calling gas turbines. The definition of oil and gas versus mid- to small IGT has become blurred since many turbines now have an increasing end use for data centers. We have provided historical gas turbine revenue in the appendix on Page 19.

Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. Within Howmet's markets, we had robust spares growth. The combination of commercial aerospace, defense aerospace and gas turbine spares was up 33% for the full year to $1.7 billion.

Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019. In summary, 2025 continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace and gas turbines.

Moving to Slide 6 and starting with the P&L. I will focus my comments on full year performance. Full year 2025 revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share were all records. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 11% and EBITDA outpaced revenue growth being up 26%, while absorbing approximately 1,500 net new employees predominantly in the Engine segment. EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%. Incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was excellent at approximately 60% year-over-year. Earnings per share was $3.77, which was up a healthy 40% year-over-year.

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Free cash flow for the year was a record at $1.43 billion. Free cash flow conversion of net income was 93% as we continue to deliver on our long-term target of 90%. The year-end cash balance was a healthy $743 million. Debt was reduced by $265 million in 2025. We paid off the remaining $140 million of our U.S. dollar long-term due in November 2026 at par. We also paid off our $625 million 2027 notes with newly issued $500 million notes due 2032 and $125 million of cash on hand.

The interest rate for the 2032 notes is 4.55%. The combined debt actions for the year will reduce the annualized interest expense by approximately $22 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we redeemed all of the outstanding shares of our preferred stock for $55 million, simplifying Howmet's capital structure. Net debt to trailing EBITDA continued to improve, ending the year at a record low of 1x. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates.

Howmet is rated 3 notches into investment grade by all of our rating agencies, reflecting our strong balance sheet, improved financial leverage and robust cash generation. Liquidity remains strong with a healthy cash balance, plus a $1 billion revolver complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program, neither of which were utilized in 2025. Turning to capital deployment.

CapEx was a record $453 million, up approximately $130 million year-over-year as we continue to invest for growth. About70% of CapEx was in our Engines business as we continue to invest for market expansions in commercial aerospace and gas turbines. Investments are backed by customer contracts.

In 2025, we deployed approximately $1.2 billion of cash to common stock repurchases, redemption of preferred stock, debt paydown and quarterly dividends. For the year, we repurchased $700 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $161 per share, retiring approximately 4.4 million shares. Q4 was the 19th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a fourth quarter exit rate of 404 million shares. Moreover, so far in 2026, we have repurchased an additional $150 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $215 per share. As of today, the remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.35 billion. Finally, we continue to be confident in the strong future free cash flow. For the year, we paid $181 million in dividends, which was an increase of 69% year-over-year from $0.26 per share in 2024 to $0.44 per share in 2025.

Now let's move to Slide 7 to cover the segment results from the fourth quarter. The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion, commercial aerospace was up 17%, and defense aerospace was up 18%. The gas turbine market was up 32%. Demand continues to be strong across all our engine markets with strong engine spares volume. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 31% to $396 million EBITDA margin increased 290 basis points to 34%, while absorbing approximately 320 net new employees in the quarter. For the full year, revenue was up 16% to $4.3 billion. EBITDA was up 25% to $1.44 billion, and EBITDA margin was 33.3% which was up approximately 250 basis points. All of these were records for the Engine Products segment. Moreover, the Engine Products segment added approximately 1,440 net new employees which has a near-term margin drag, but it positions us well for the future.

Please move to Slide 8. Fastening Systems had another strong quarter. Quarterly revenue increased 13% to $454 million. Commercial aerospace was up 20%. Other markets were up 14% on renewables demand Defense Aerospace was up 7% and commercial transportation, which represents approximately 10% of fasteners revenue was down 16%. EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 25% to $139 million despite the sluggish recovery of wide-body aircraft builds along with weakness in commercial transportation. EBITDA margin increased a healthy 290 basis points to 30.6% as the team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance. For the full year, revenue was up 11% to $1.75 billion. EBITDA was up 31% to $530 million and EBITDA margin was 30.4%, which was up approximately 460 basis points. The fasteners team delivered solid year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth, while maintaining a relatively flat headcount.

Moving to Slide 9. Engineered Structures performance continues to improve. Quarterly revenue increased 4% to $287 million. Commercial aerospace was down 6% due to product rationalization and was essentially flat with the previous 3 quarters of 2025. Defense aerospace was up 37%, primarily driven by the end of destocking on the F-35 program. Segment EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 24% to $63 million. EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 22% and as we continue to optimize the structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability. For the full year, revenue was up 8% to $1.15 billion. EBITDA was up 46% to $243 million, and EBITDA margin was 21.2%. EBITDA margin was up approximately 560 basis points as the team continues to make significant progress.

Finally, Slide 10. Forged Wheels quarterly revenue was up 9% as a 10% decrease in volumes was largely offset by higher aluminum costs, tariff pass-through and favorable foreign currency impacts. EBITDA was strong at $79 million, an increase of 20% despite the challenging market. EBITDA margin increased 270 basis points to 29.9%. The unfavorable margin impact of lower volumes and higher pass-through was more than offset by flexing costs, a strong product mix driven by premium products and favorable foreign currency. For the full year, revenue was down 1% to $1.04 billion. EBITDA was up 3% to $296 million. EBITDA margin was a strong 28.5% and in a challenging market and was up 130 basis points year-over-year. The wheels team has continued to expand margins despite market metal cost and tariff uncertainty.

Lastly, before turning it back to John, I want to highlight a couple of items. Firstly, in mid-2024, we established a 2025 dividend policy to pay cash dividends on the company's common stock at a rate of 15% plus or minus 5% of adjusted net income. Cash dividends were approximately $181 million or 12% of adjusted net income in 2025. Looking forward, we envisage that the dollar value of dividend distributions in 2026 will be higher than in 2025. Secondly, in the fourth quarter of 2025, we completed the annuitization of the U.K. pension plan, resulting in a $128 million reduction to Howmet's gross pension obligations. No new pension contributions were required in 2025 to complete the transaction. A third-party carrier will now pay and administer future annuity payments for this plan.

Now let me turn the call back to John.

Thank you, Patrick, and let's move to Slide 11. Let me turn to the outlook for the company and I'll provide summary comments before providing more detail for each market segment. The vast majority of the markets we serve, including commercial aerospace, defense, and land-based gas turbines are in a growth phase. The commercial truck wheel segment is stable at a low level and should begin to show signs of growth towards the latter half of 2026. Firstly, commercial aerospace is buoyed by increased air travel, both domestic and international. The highest growth is seen in Asia Pacific, notably China, but also in North America and in Europe. Freight traffic also continues to grow. Passenger demand combined with the recent multiyear underbuild of commercial aircraft have together led to a record OEM backlog stretching into the next decade. New aircraft builds, including narrow-body, wide-body and freighters are planned to grow at all aircraft manufacturers. I'll provide expected build rates later in the call. .

In addition to these robust newbuilds, spares continue to be elevated by the expanding size and growing age of the current fleet of aircraft. This is further enhanced by durability issues found in some modern engines essentially due to higher operating pressures and temperatures, which are required to achieve increased fuel efficiency. Air pollution in certain parts of the world further contribute to the problem. Defense markets, especially fixed wing aircraft are also buoyant. The largest platform, the F-35 continues to be steady for OE builds, again, with a very large new build backlog while spares also continued to grow due to the size of the fleet. In fact, for our Engine Products segment in 2025, the F-35 spares demand exceeded the OE demand for the aggregate value of spare parts provided. The F-15 and F-16 programs are also seeing new builds with reasonable quantities.

Howmet see a strong further demand from other parts of the defense and space industry also, namely tank turbines, missiles, rocket motors, [indiscernible] and also spare rocket parts. The gas turbine business is entering its largest growth phase in years, while oil and gas demand seem to be steady. The demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers is extremely high. If we aggregate both large gas turbines and small- to medium-sized gas turbines, we expect that our base business of approximately $1 billion should double in revenue to $2 billion over the next 3 to 5 years and even more growth is envisaged beyond that, especially for mini grids.

Howmet is well positioned in this segment by the supply of turbine blades, where we are the largest manufacturer of gas turbine blades in the world, covering our key customers of GE Vernova, Siemens Power, Mitsubishi Heavy and [ Saldo, Solar and Baker Hughes ], plus parts for aero derivative engines produced by GE Aviation. We have recently completed new contracts with 4 of these 7 customers while negotiations continue with the other 3. Additionally, the build-out of the turbine fleet over the next 5 years, and she has a healthy and growing spares market for years to come.

Turning now to commercial truck wheels. We weathered the volume downturn in 2025, especially in the second half, share growth and penetration versus steel wheels helped. For the year, commercial transportation revenue is down 5% despite material and tariff recovery covering part of the volume downdraft. The market appears to be stabilizing, and we now believe that Q1 will be the quarterly low point. Given the new 2027 emissions regulations remain in place, we anticipate that this will begin to help demand in the second half of 2026 and then we should see the inventory multiplier effect still take effect as the truck builds increase.

I'd like to mention the commercial aircraft build rate assumptions upon which our guidance is based. Albeit we will match aircraft build rates, whatever they eventually turn out to be. For Boeing, the 737 assumption, is 40 aircraft per month based on a rate of 42 as a daily average coming to the month without vacations. And the 787 is 7 a month rising to 8 a month by the fourth quarter. For Airbus, the A320 assumed to be 60 a month, while the A350 is at 6 per month. Q1 2026 guide numbers are revenue of $2.235 billion, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA of $685 million, plus or minus $5 million and EPS of $1.10, plus or minus $0.01. You'll note that our Q1 revenue is an increase of 15% year-on-year above the average for 2025. We remain positive on the growth for 2026 while noting the dependency on aircraft builds.

For 2026, the numbers provided exclude the acquisition of CAM. Revenue of $9.1 billion, plus or minus $100 million, EBITDA of $2.76 billion, plus or minus $50 million, earnings per share of $4.45, plus or minus $0.01 and finally, free cash flow of $1.6 billion, plus or minus $50 million. The EBITDA incremental for the year, is it guided to be approximately in the early [ 40% ].

I would now like to turn to portfolio commentary. In the first -- sorry, in the last few months, we've been very busy. We've signed and closed on the purchase of our fastener business in Wisconsin, [ Puna Inc ]. We believe that this acquisition enhances our product offering and opens up new markets for Howmet to explore, especially in the longer length and wider diameter parts in the fasteners market. The impact of this acquisition on Howmet's earnings is not material. However, it provides a very good platform for future growth. The more significant acquisition has come in the Aerospace fastener and fittings business, for which we have agreed to pay $1.8 billion. Upon deal closure, the earnings per share effect in the balance of 2025 will not be of a material effect. And hence, the guide is kept clean until the date of closing is known post the regulatory processes.

These actions strengthen Howmet's portfolio of businesses going into 2027. The theme has been and will continue to be to play to our strengths and allocate capital decisively to businesses that are growing and showed the strongest returns on capital and cash generation. We're excited about the future given these portfolio improvements as well as the growing commercial aerospace and gas turbine businesses. Further growth updates concerning the gas turbine business will be provided as we've progressed throughout the year. I'll now start and turn the meeting over to questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

John, I'd like to understand sort of how your thinking has evolved when you look ahead over the next 5 years with engine products. Clearly, things have changed. And can you contrast your expectations for the relative growth across commercial, aero, defense, gas turbines as you think about planning, investments and so forth. And then related to this, you just reached a record EBITDA margin of 34%. In [ branding ] products. Are you near a ceiling with this? And what's enabling you to get to these higher margins?

Okay. So as you say by thinking has evolved. I guess, thinking always evolves with the passage of time and the circumstances change. I mean, I think the constant throughout this start off with commercial aerospace, where I've been convinced that growth will be robust and continuing. As you know, sometimes over the last 2 or 3 years or maybe 4 years, it hasn't been quite as good as we had envisaged, and that's principally due to the difficulties in final assembly of aircraft and also engines. But the trajectory has been positive and the future continues to look really good.

And so when I consider the backlog the commercial aircraft that are there. I think it is quite extraordinary. And I think the word extraordinary is appropriate. And that applies to both narrow-body aircraft and wide-body aircraft. Since if you were to order a new aircraft today, you're really looking at delivery beyond 2030. If build rates were not to increase that it would be possibly almost towards the end of the 2030 decade. And so there's a very strong requirement for builds to increase. And so I think that backlog number gives great comfort in the investments that we've made. And you've seen our capital expenditure developed very notably over the last few years. And we've talked previously about building out another complete manufacturing plant and extending say, 1.5 manufacturing plants in it for our commercial aerospace business. So that's been very significant, and that's on top of the new engine plant that we built in 2020 coming on stream at that time, we started COVID there's been a tremendous investment for the commercial aerospace market.

At the same time, we've seen very solid demand for defense and I think the surprise there has not been the solidity of the F-35 more so the fact that the other legacy aircraft have also seen significant new orders. But the F-35 is the flagship program that we have. But now when we look out, there's a significant emerging segments of missiles for us, where we are seeing very significant demand increases and just at the moment, we're also spending a lot of engineering efforts to try and ensure that we have position on engines for drones and for the larger cruise missiles. And so again, we see defense as a continuing good sector for us and which we're backing with investment dollars in a significant way.

I think the biggest change to my thinking has been for the gas turbine market. And historically, if you've gone back by 7 years, I said this was a more cyclical business. It has shown periods of rapid growth and rapid decline and it was one where I was quite leary about making investments in that segment. And then I think things began to change with, I'll say, more consistency of product management by our customers so far less new product introductions and therefore, more buildable repeatable product. And then the emergence of demand, which seem to be a long ongoing need to support the renewable industries where the base level of capability and fast response. But you didn't really stop there and now I'll say, the emphasis is probably a little bit less on renewables and more on fossil fuels.

And certainly, when you look at it, if coal-fired power stations are not being retired then the tremendous demand that's there can only really -- realistically be filled by the natural gas market. And so when you look at it with the demand projections for data centers and that was without the advent of AI, it caused me to think about willingness to invest. And so we did tick up capital deployments in new equipment in 2024 and then more again in 2025. And you saw the capital expenditure for the year very, very significantly above that, which we envisaged at the beginning of the year, you could go back to our guide a year before. And now we're looking at 2026, where it's going to be a higher number again. And we've picked the midpoint of about $470 million but I could envisage it rising above that. But at the same time, we're really trying and ensuring that we have that consistency of free cash flow conversion of the 90%.

And so 2025 was a year where there was not a lot of new output from the capital expenditures that we had put into the ground I think it's more a question of yield improvement to allow for the average of a 25% growth in that area. And we had been, I'll say, quite successful and probably exceeded our expectations of the improvements we could make. And as you know, in previous calls, I've talked about building a new plant in Japan, which has been done. Building a new plant in Europe, which has been done and then placing new capital into those 2 new manufacturing plants plus the existing one in the U.S. And so a lot of that capital will come on stream towards the back end of 2026 and into 2027. But it hasn't really stopped there. And in dialogue with our customers more recently, we are seeing again, further demand patterns evolve where additional investments are required.

And so right now, if I were to call it, I envisage that 2027, we'll see an even higher capital number if all of the -- all of our discussions come home. And I quoted in my prepared remarks about 4 out of 7 customers that was the -- both a very large gas to [ via ] customers and the, I'll say, small and midsized. But if I just confine it to the large gas turbines for the utilities, but now some of them being sold directly to data centers where it's a gigawatt of energy output is required. Then we've now completed 3 out of 4 I will say, outcomes or discussions with those customers and have reached agreements whereby we would seek to invest more for the future while ensuring, again, that we have healthy returns for Howmet shareholders.

So I think that really covers how -- I think that is involved in our thinking, both through commercial aerospace, defense, supplementary areas and further market opportunity in defense maybe be collaborative combat aircraft as well and their engine requirements and now in the gas turbine market. So it's a particularly exciting time. And as you know, we always back the areas investment in the company, which earn higher returns. I hope that covers it, Doug.

Well, and just on margins, the 34%, which was unusually high.

Well, I think it's a good margin. As you know, I never I'm willing to consider what margins are for the future because I find it always a very difficult topic to cover. As you know, we don't seek to take them down at the same time, predicting increases is not something that I've ever been willing to do and because so many factors come into play regarding that. I mean, at the moment, I see, for example, I have to take on additional cost, not only of the new manufacturing plants, but also I think that we're going to sort of recruit another net 1,500 people plus in 2026 into our Engine segment. And so on all of those people would require training and et cetera, et cetera.

So there's a lot going on and I'm also very clear that if we were to hit all that marks then again, the output that we need to achieve won't come from just the new capital load, we've got to try to attain further yield improvements, which then requires us to have effective labor and also bringing together all of the -- I'll say, the flow that we have and trying to get more repeatable product through our manufacturing facilities. And I think the opportunity, which I see in the midterm is that we will be able to move for more batch production in the gas turbine area, it's more of a flow style production which, again, towards the end of the decade, should begin to, say, further give us impetus on yields and therefore, margin. But it's way too early to predict that, Doug.

the next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

This is Alex on for Seth today. Maybe one kind of more specific to the guide for this year. Based on the guide for Q1, the midpoint of the rest of the guide for 2026 kind of implies minimal improvement in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. Now wondering if you could kind of walk us through the puts and takes there and why that is? And also on the margin, the full year guide kind of implies that the margin is going to decline 30 bps for the full year from the 30.6% in Q1. Wondering how much of that might be related to maybe some start-up friction related to the engine capacity additions you're expecting to come online this year? Or if there's maybe some other things we should account for there?

Let's say, the most important thing to note is that we do have an extraordinary amount going on in the company. We are deploying capital for new equipment at an extraordinary rate. We're building -- we're extending 5 new manufacturing plants. And one thing I haven't commented on is that we actually purchased another manufacturing plant. So let's call it a brownfield in February of this year essentially aimed at the gas turbine market because we've literally run out of square footage. And so I mean, all the capacitization that we've been considering.

And then as you have heard, we're taking on 2 acquisitions, 1 of which we've closed, 1 of which we expect to close during the year. So between building out of capital equipment, building out of new sites, recruitment of labor and also the acquisitions we've talked about. That's an enormous amount going on and it's always a struggle to believe you'll be successful on every single one of them and et cetera, et cetera. So I mean, for me, 30 basis points of margin is not really significant. I'd look at the incrementals, and I'll say it's like, I think, 43% in Q1 and maybe, I think, 41% for the year. So again, pretty close.

And we've got to make sure that all of those new manufacturing facilities come on stream, build products while taking on labor. And there's always the possibility of us not hitting everything in quite the way we do it, and therefore, I think the caution is always the best way. And we take, as you've heard we say in the past I guide seriously. So I think predicting 30.3% EBITDA margins for the year is pretty good at this point. And if we manage everything really well, and maybe it will be better. But at this point, I think we've given you the best shot of what we think is a balanced view of everything that's going on.

The next question is from Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

John, I just wanted to follow up on your comments on the ITT investment. Do you think the ROIC on all this spending is going to be similar to what you've achieved in commercial and aerospace in the past?

I think, first of all, if you go back and review what I've said publicly is that there essentially is no difference between the margin that we have on gas turbines and put in our commercial aerospace or defense space. And so it's all the order of magnitude. If you look at the embedded return on capital, again, at a very similar nature. Of course, the more, I'll say, brand-new virgin capital, you deploy [ Catacas ] a bit of a drag on those returns. And at the moment, it's difficult to plan out all of the blends that might be going on since we haven't bottomed yet what the final capital deployment will be in the gas turbine sector.

As I said, we've completed 3 out of 4 of the major large gas turbine customers or across the whole of the gas turbine segment 4 out of 7. So there's still a lot to consider. And each one of our customers are also looking themselves whether they can achieve an output increase across all of the, I'll say, their own builds plus other, I'll say, component suppliers. So all of those discussions are continuing and therefore, the final capital build and exactly the timing of it will, it's going to be deployed, it's difficult to know. But the direction of what I've tried to indicate, we know it's like we spent maybe 300 -- I can't remember the number there, $350 million plus or minus or $340 million in '24, $450 million in '25, we're saying 470 midpoints with a plus or minus 20%.

But if you ask me to give a gut feel, obviously, more like a plus at the side at this point? And '27, again, it's not fully baked by any means, but I envisage at the moment to be at least the amount that we have in 2026 or possibly higher as we complete all of these things. And then just trying to say, bring it all to earth as we plan all these things out. And again, make sure that we can afford as you envelope of cash generation we've talked about. So just specifically being on ROIC, it's also of a similar order of magnitude today but the blends of what's new capital versus the existing base, that can change as we move through the next 2 or 3 years.

The next question is from John Godyn with Citi.

Cash generation has been strong, financial leverage at record lows, like you mentioned. I just wanted to talk about capital deployment a bit. How you're thinking about M&A versus buybacks. And with M&A, we saw the consolidated aerospace manufacturing deal, which was a bit larger. I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking about the landscape for larger M&A and growth opportunities that could unlock.

First of all, we've been -- could you bold on providing returns to our shareholders essentially passing back all of the cash flow that we have achieved whether it's been share repurchase, dividend, I see debt reduction in the same category, while ensuring that we have always invested enough to be able to basically drive the organic growth of the company forward. And you've seen consistently growth in the double-digit area for several years and also indicating another double-digit growth for this year. And if we're successful on all of the capital expenditure this year than I envisioned '27 were also going to be healthy.

So I mean, so first priority, John is always the deployment of capital to enable the growth opportunities that we have, say, come to fruition. Then clearly, measure the, I'll say, share buyback and also while taking into account the opportunity for M&A and where the leverage of the balance sheet is. And so if you think about CAM, $1.8 billion is significant. But at the same time, where we think about the leverage is we're below our long-run target average, let's call it, 1.5% or less than that. And so CAM doesn't really stretch us, and we envisage being able to continue to buy back shares as well. So it's not a -- currently, it's not a choice 1 or the other. We're able to -- I'll say, at this point, do it all. We're investing in the business at record levels, so $450 million, trending to $500 million. We're deploying share buyback in a significant way and probably going to end up with a larger buyback in 2026 that we had in 2025.

We are deploying capital into CAM of about $1.8 billion. And if I give you dimensions for the [ Butner ] acquisition, it's in that $120 million to $150 million range of capital let's say, about $60 million of revenue. So at the moment, if you think about it and also be kicking up dividend as well, even though the dividend yield is not the highest because we're growing so rapidly. I mean we are managing at this point to do it all. So I don't see why we have to fundamentally say we're going to do one or the other. And so we shall keep doing whether other M&A opportunities come up, but again, be very disciplined. And you've seen in the 2 we've done very much down in the middle of the fairway. It's in segments that we know well, segments that have earned the right to grow, segments that are producing very healthy absolute margins. And so an increased CapEx for fasteners, absolutely. Willingness to deploy for an acquisition, absolutely. And it's not stopping us also buying back shares as an elevated rate above the previous years.

The next question is from Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

John, given the demand for gas turbines and the unique value that Howmet creates in that market, do you see a future scenario where your gas turbine revenue at interim products could ultimately be larger than the commercial jet engine revenue?

That takes me too far out there. I don't think so because I think our commercial aerospace and our defense aerospace business is also growing rapidly, has grown. And I don't see that at this point in time. So I guess the short answer would be no. I think the most notable thing though, that it's going on, it's not just for us, the growth in absolute volume and I think I've talked about it in the past, but maybe not sufficiently. There's also a product mix change going on at the same time, whereby some of the technologists that was previously deployed in aerospace are also now being deployed in the gas turbine business probably even more so in the small to mid-range gas turbines, but also now in the large gas turbine area, when that is providing air flow passages through the turbine blades and therefore, requiring us to call the core tools to be able to provide those air passage ways.

And that, again, produces for us a content increase. So we're looking at the -- both the absolute requirement to build more tunnels plus also the evolving landscape over the next few years, I'll say, more complex type of turbine blades, which again plays to our strength and capabilities. So it's all good, but I'm not yet ready for the premise that it could exceed. I mean, I don't know where we're going to be, say in 2030 or beyond its -- there's a lot of things going to happen yet to get this current obviously, requirements built out. But you do see the need for electricity increasing at a rapid pace, really for not just the next 3 years but well beyond maybe for the next decade and beyond.

The next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

And John, it does seem like you are doing it all. You are in the process of closing CAM and you just did the [ Bruner ] acquisition, marks more M&A than you've done in the past. Maybe if you could just give us greater depth in terms of the market that opens up, the product offering and how you're thinking about maybe the returns as you think about either building or buying in terms of these investments?

Yes. I think the -- so I start with the CAM acquisition. For us, it takes us into the fittings and couplings area of, I'd say, the wider fastener market and that helps us to build out those segments in a more significant way and bring another very powerful force to market with the, I'll say, the backing and the ability to deploy capital behind it. And so that's particularly exciting for us and also, I think it's also exciting for our customers because I think they need and they see the opportunity for Howmet to provide further support in those segments of the market. .

I mean at fasteners, of course, it's good, it's interesting, and we appreciate all of it. But I think the main thrust would be in those other adjacent segments that we can build out. So that would give you a bit of a theme on CAM. In terms of Bruno, what we saw so far, if I take just bolts as an example, we've been in the market producing I'll say, the smaller range of bolts, which a threaded bolts in particular, plus obviously nuts, but I'm really concentrated in this discussion on bolts. But we've never really had the ability or the size of capital to manage long lengths of bolts nor diameters in excess of an inch diameter. And so [ Bruner ] offers us a ready-made solution for that.

And when we think about the markets that we don't serve, both in aerospace and in parts of industrial, where if we had got that product offering, then we would be more significant in the market and therefore, again, help our growth rate. And that's what [ Bruner] brings to us. And so if we were to try to build out that capability ourselves, particularly in the commercial aerospace segment, by the time you've engineered it or how you've deployed the capital you've got the certifications whereas now we have already made profitable in the base business which we can now seek certification of into certain aerospace applications and also to the wider market.

So again, it's where I think the application of the heft of how [ met ] and our commercial position and the ability to deploy capital and make further investments is really going to see a benefit for us and for our customers where we're bringing a powerful new product capability to the market. And so that's the essence of the [ Brewer ] acquisition.

The next question is Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

You have [ Louis Fed ] on for Myles.

Good morning.

John, I was hoping you could provide some additional color on how spares performed in the fourth quarter and the full year 2025 between commercial and then defense, I guess IGT. And what are your thoughts for 2026?

Yes. So in aggregate, our spares business grew over 30%, probably getting close to 33% for the year. And so again, a very healthy growth rate for us. Against the mark, where I think I said that we saw spares moving towards 20% over '25 and '26 in terms of the total revenue of Howmet. In actual fact, we exceeded that. We were at 21% for the 2025 year. So again, the overall growth rate helped us get to that level and hopefully, that we don't stop at 21%. Inside that 21% is that it's about 40% of our engines business. And to give you one other bit of color inside our overall, let's say, 32%, 33% growth last year. Commercial aero was early 40%. And so healthy growth. And we see that growth continuing into 2026. I haven't called out a specific number yet. But having achieved the 21%, then hopefully, we don't regress from that. And hopefully, it continues to be a larger portion of the Howmet overall revenue picture.

The next question is from Peter Arment with Baird.

Patrick. John, regarding like engine margins in general, like automation has been a big part of kind of a beneficiary for you. Can you maybe give us a little more color on like kind of where you are in the automation journey and for engines and are there other opportunities in the business that you seek for automation?

We spent quite a bit of money over, I'd say, '23, '24 in automation. And that's obviously been very beneficial for us and has help us or need for additional employees, there you can see we've been hiring at a significant rate. We've made sure that all of the new capital we deployed as a high level of automation. So when we showcase our new manufacturing plant in Whitehall next month, you'll see something that I talked about in one of the previous calls about digital thread and to track manufacturing to an extraordinary degree and also allow us to bring I'll say, machine learning and AI to a degree across that plant. And so I'm very hopeful.

But I also know that first, for capital has been so high, and it's not just can we deploy the cash, but it's also where we can. It's also the engineering bandwidth, which has been totally absorbed by I'll say, the new markets that we've been developing for and customer requirements. And so it's taken a bit of a back seat in '25 and '26 and so the moment our choice has been will match the market and achieve that. And that's far more important for us to just to say, maintain and grow our market share and meet customer demand, and we have the opportunity in maybe it's '27 or probably more like '28, '29 to go back and also make some of the processes that we did not do while we're doing all of this, even though all the new stuff we're doing is highly automated.

This concludes the question-and-answer session, and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Good day, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

In today's presentation references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS fees, adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income, excluding special items and adjusted EPS, excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

Thank you, PT, and welcome to the Howmet Q3 call. Let's start with the company highlights on Slide 4. Q3 was a very strong quarter for Howmet. Revenue growth continues to accelerate and was up 14% compared to 8% in the first half. Within this revenue growth, Commercial Aerospace increased 15% and within this number, commercial aero part sales increased by 38% for a total spares increase of 31%. EBITDA was up 26% and operating income up 29%. Cash flow was also healthy at $423 million after capital expenditure of $108 million.

Year-to-date capital expenditure is approximately $330 million. Regarding share buyback, $200 million of cash was deployed to buybacks in Q3 with an additional $100 million buyback in October. October year-to-date buyback is now $600 million, which is $100 million higher than the 2024 full year. We also paid off the -- up of $63 million of the U.S. term loan early, which was due in November 2026 and with the resulting net leverage now stands at 1.1x net debt-to-EBITDA.

Dividend payments were also increased in August by a further 20% versus the prior quarter and earnings per share increased by just over 34%. Other commentary, which may be helpful is that working capital days improved year-over-year, allowing for the increased capital expenditure for future growth and all within the free cash flow number previously referenced. Head count did increase by a further 265 people, mainly within the engines business as we staff our new manufacturing plants. As planned, the increase in head count has slowed as we go into the second half, although we visit hiring again as we pick up in early 2026.

Now let me turn the call over to Ken to cover the markets and segment performance.

Okay. Thank you, John. Let's move to Slide 5. So end markets continue to be strong, with total revenue up 14%. Commercial Aerospace was up 15%, exceeding $1.1 billion in the quarter. Commercial Aerospace growth is driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Defense Aerospace growth continued to be robust at 24%. Growth was driven by engine spares, which increased 33% and new F-35 aircraft builds. .

As expected, commercial transportation was challenging, with revenue down 3% in the third quarter, including the pass-through of higher aluminum costs and tariffs. On a volume basis, wheels volume was down 16%. Finally, the industrial and other markets were up a healthy 18% driven by oil and gas, up 33% and IGT up 23%. In the future, it's likely that we will combine oil and gas and IGT when reporting revenue by market. The definition of oil and gas versus mid- to small IGT has become somewhat blurred since many turbines now have increasing end use for data centers.

So in summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation. Within Howmet markets, the combination of spares for Commercial Aero, Defense Aero, IGT and oil and gas was up 31% in the third quarter.

Now let's move to Slide 6. So starting with the P&L. Q3 revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. Revenue was up 14%, EBITDA exceeded $600 million as it outpaced revenue growth and was up 26%. EBITDA margin increased 290 basis points to 29.4% and while absorbing the cost of approximately 265 net head count additions. Earnings per share was $0.95, which was up a solid 34%.

Moving to the balance sheet and free cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Free cash flow was excellent at $423 million. Free cash flow included the acceleration of capital expenditures with $108 million invested in the quarter and approximately $330 million year-to-date, which is higher than the full year 2024 capital expenditures. About 70% of the capital expenditures year-to-date is for our engines business as we continue to invest for growth in commercial aerospace and IGT. Investments are backed by customer contracts. Quarter-end cash was a healthy $660 million. Year-to-date, debt has been reduced by $140 million as we paid off at par the U.S. term loan, which was due in November of 2026.

The early prepayments will reduce annualized interest expense drag by approximately $8 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve to a record low of 1.1x. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates. Howmet's improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in S&P's Q3 rating upgrade from BBB to BBB+, which is 3 notches into investment grade. Liquidity remains strong with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver, complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program, both of which have not been utilized.

Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $770 million of cash, common stock repurchases, debt paydown and quarterly dividends year-to-date through September. In the quarter, we repurchased $200 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $182 per share. Q3 was the 18th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a Q3 exit rate of 405 million shares. Additionally, in October, we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $192 per share. October year-to-date common stock repurchases are $600 million at an average price of approximately $156 per share. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.6 billion as of the end of October.

Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. We increased the quarterly dividend by 20% in the third quarter to $0.12 per share, which is up 50% higher than Q3 of last year.

Now let's move to Slide 7 to cover the segment results for the third quarter. The Engines products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 17% to $1.1 billion. Commercial Aerospace was up 13%. Defense Aerospace was up 23%. Oil and gas was up 33% and IGT was up 23%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our engines markets with strong engine spares volume. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 20% to $368 million. EBITDA margin increased 80 basis points year-over-year to 33.3% while absorbing approximately 265 net new employees in the quarter.

Year-to-date, engines have invested in approximately 1,125 incremental head count, which has a near-term margin drag, but positions us well for future growth.

Now let's move to Slide 8. The Fastening Systems team also delivered a record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 14% to $448 million. Commercial Aerospace was up 27%, defense aerospace was up 2%, general industrial was up 3% and commercial transportation, which represents approximately 12% of Faster's revenue was down 17%. EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 35% to $138 million, despite the sluggish recovery of wide-body aircraft builds along with weakness in commercial transportation. EBITDA margin increased a robust 480 basis points year-over-year to 30.8% as the team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance.

Now let's move to Slide 9. Engineered Structures had a solid quarter. Revenue increased 14% to $289 million. Commercial Aero was up 7%, and defense aerospace was up 42%, primarily driven by the end of the destocking of the F-35 program. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 53% to $58 million. EBITDA margin increased 510 basis points to 20.1% as we continue to optimize the structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability.

Finally, let's move to Slide 10. Forged Wheels revenue was essentially flat as a 16% decrease in volume was largely offset by higher aluminum costs, tariff pass-through and favorable [ warranty ] currency. EBITDA was strong at $73 million, an increase of 14% despite a challenging market. EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.6%. The unfavorable margin impact of lower volumes and higher pass-throughs were more than offset by flexing of costs, favorable product mix driven by our premium products and favorable foreign currency. The Wheels team has continued to expand margins despite market metal cost and tariff uncertainty.

Now let me turn it back over to John.

Thank you, Ken. Let's move to Slide 11 to discuss the outlook. In summary, before I go into details, the outlook is solid. Air travel continues to grow year-over-year after a solid summer period. The backlog of commercial aircraft extends for many years, even after assuming increases in build rates throughout the next 5 years. The current aircraft fleet has aged. These factors combined to provide both healthy OE demand and the growing demand for aircraft aftermarket parts, especially in the engine for wearing parts, namely the turbine blades in the hot gas pass section of the engine.

Defense sales continued to be strong with steady F-35 OE sales, plus some increase in legacy fighter jets, namely the F-15 and the F-16. This is also combined with growth in defense spare sales. In oil and gas, the demand is steady, while growth in IGT is extremely strong, again in both OE and aftermarket sectors. The part of the market, which I have not previously made much commentary on is the midsized turbines of up to 45 megawatts where growth of both aero-derivative engines and dedicated midsized turbines is expected to grow for many years. This is mainly the result of data center build-outs and the need to supply these data centers with either independent fundamental electricity supply or with very fast-acting turbine response to ensure uninterrupted supply from the grid and from utilities.

It is increasingly difficult for us to separate the end market for these turbines between oil and gas compared to IGT. Commercial truck volumes continue to struggle with smaller fleets, in particular, not buying trucks due to the low freight rates and also combine this with a large price increases for Class 8 trucks, principally due to tariffs. The tariff changes continue to produce uncertainty for Howmet. However, the net tariff drag continues to be small at around $5 million plus or minus as discussed in the last earnings call.

The revenue outlook for the balance of 2025 has increased compared to the prior guide, benefiting from the stronger Boeing 737 builds and also engine spares. The build-out of our footprint with the 5 new manufacturing plants or extensions continues. The most vital immediate part of our expansion going into 2026 is the new Michigan Aero Engine core and casting plant, which is on track with the machines now building some parts. There remains a lot more equipment to be installed during the next 6 months, but everything is currently as it should be. The new plant we've installed for tooling is now equipped and staffing well underway.

Being a little bit more specific regarding the 2026 outlook, we see revenues of $9 billion plus or minus is an increase of about 10% year-on-year. This number will be further refined in our February 2026 earnings call, where we will also provide more detailed guidance.

Moving to the fourth quarter of 2025. We see revenue to be $2.1 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA of $610 million, plus or minus $5 million. earnings per share, $0.95 plus or minus $0.01. And for the year, the numbers are -- revenue at $8.15 billion plus or minus EUR 10 million, EBITDA at $2.375 billion, plus or minus $5 million; earnings per share of $3.67 plus or minus $0.01 and free cash flow of $1.3 billion, plus or minus $25 million.

In summary, 2025 is another good year for Howmet with free cash flow guided substantially higher than the last earnings call, even after the higher capital expenditure, which is there for future growth in the company.

Before moving to Q&A, I did want to thank Ken Giacobbe before his years of dedicated service. It's been quite the journey for Ken and him being my partner in all of this from his days at Alcoa to Howmet, which interestingly, as 1 of the 3 parts of former Alcoa is now worth more than the single Alcoa company ever was. All the very best to Ken in his well-earned retirement.

Thank you, John.

I just want to offer you the opportunity of adding any comments.

Yes John, appreciate the kind words and appreciate the partnership. It's been a privilege and a pleasure to work with you, the Board of Directors and the Howmet team. Results have been remarkable. I think a lot of that is driven by the positive culture that you had built over the years. That culture is 1 that we talk about quite a bit, 1 of focus innovation in terms of everything we do, empowerment, accountability, shared purpose and winning, which is quite refreshing.

As I look forward, I believe Howmet well positioned for the future with a clear, clear path forward and an exceptional leadership team at the helm. So as I conclude my 20-year, 21-year tenure with immense gratitude and also confidence in Howmet's future, I want to thank you for the opportunity to be part of such a remarkable organization. So wishing you and the team continued success.

So I guess, Drew, we could move to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions]

The first question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

And Ken, congratulations on your retirement. Thank you for all the thoughtful insights over the years and hope you've got something very fun planned. So maybe, John, the investments in technology you've made in Aerospace has yielded in Howmet being a clear leader in this area, especially for the hot section of the jet engine. Now pivoting to this data center build, we're starting to see this industry really gain a lot of traction. You've called out CapEx increases last quarter and also this quarter.

Can you just take a step back and provide us more color on what the competitive landscape is like for turbines and IGT? How differentiated is your technology, the pricing environment? And what's your expected returns in this sector and how that compares with aerospace?

Okay. So that's a very broad question gives me the opportunity to talk now for at least an hour...

I'll keep it to that question though, John.

Yes. This is only 1 question. So first of all, clearly, this build-out of data centers and the requirement for electricity to not only also drive the processing and the microchips that for these advanced microchips that are being installed, but also the electricity required to call them is producing an extraordinary level of demand, which I think we know that the utility companies themselves and the grid is struggling to cope with and how can that be satisfied.

It did change again, the new incoming administration in the early part of this year when there's a greater emphasis on foster fuels and really the natural gas being the technology of choice compared to renewables. And so that has caused us to think again regarding the investment profile for this business. So the back class of the fundamentals appear to be well set. Certainly, you look for the next few years, the build-out and the requirements are extraordinary and the question remains, of course, what would it look like at the turn of the decade in terms of each future growth. But having said that, I do think these data centers, which are there not just for the introduction and use of AI, but also just fundamental requirement from storage means that, that electricity demand will be there. And so solid and gives us a lot of confidence to invest albeit we don't have the same clarity regarding backlog numbers that we have in the Commercial Aerospace market.

So you don't quite have that same I'll say, clarity and visibility into the back orders. So it's caused us to keep rethinking our investments, and we've picked it up again this year. And you've seen with our guided capital expenditure increases in investments that we are making. And we expect that CapEx in 2026 and indeed going into 2027 will be also at high levels while not disturbing what our fundamental aim is, which is to convert 90% of our net income into free cash flow. And so it's a tall order at the same time, we're excited to be part of this growth opportunity.

When I think about sort of what's happening there is growth in both the large industrial gas turbines that you see bought by utilities, which provide the electricity, which is transmitted over the grid. But now given the large demand is that there are gas turbines being installed at the data center sites or plus the data center sites in a centralized facility to provide that underlying electricity. And then beyond that, is that back up [indiscernible] in the case of where you just can't guess a large gas turbine at the moment because they're quite scarce and orders are now going out. If you place a new order, you're not going to get that big land-based gas turbine to probably into the 2030 or beyond.

Is that as a case where a lot of midsized volumes are now being installed, not just for the fundamental production of electricity, but also because they are very fast reacting is that it ensures that the supply of electricity to the data center is uninterrupted. And therefore, it's providing a lot of stimulated demand for the aero derivatives. And in fact, if you look at the I think results this week of Caterpillar. They you're seeing that, and they're 1 of our major customers in those midsized turbines. So it's quite exciting.

And then in terms of technology, it's going very much along the same lines that we have in -- had done in aerospace where we have moved or are moving from turbine blades, which are solid to turbine blades, which are increasingly core, what I mean my core is that you have air paths through those turbine blades to provide them with cooling air such that those turbines can be run at higher temperatures. So it's very much going along the evolution path that we've had in the aerospace world. And so as we move forward over the next, let's say, 2, 3, 4, 5 years is happening right now is that we're installing additional capabilities to be able to produce the sophisticated -- tolerance calls that enable that next level of technology to be achieved and that's both for the midsized turbines and indeed for the very large turbines that utilities tend to buy.

If you look at the most recent development, without giving you specific market numbers or customers. Some of those now initial turbine blades are as sophisticated as they possibly most sophisticated commercial, not necessarily military but commercial aerospace use in terms of the numbers of, I will say certain time pathways to those turbine blades. So -- and of course, with that goes content and value because it again is producing the level of capability electricity generation well above what you could have achieved turbines in, let's say, 5 years ago or 10 years ago? So it's a pretty exciting landscape in terms of playing to our spreads of the more sophisticated technology. It's causing us to expand.

And you've heard me talk about the new manufacturing plant that we have or are building, in fact, at the end of this year, the structure will be complete to enable us to put new capabilities and, for example, new casting machines into that plant in the early part of 2026 to bring capacity on, not just for our customers in Japan, like Mitsubishi Heavy but also other customers like Siemens and GE and [indiscernible] , et cetera. So -- and we're doing that, plus we're also expanding our plant in Europe significantly and also placing new capital in the existing footprint of our U.S. facility.

So we're expanding in each of our 3 major sites where we produce gas turbine parts and really excited to be part of this journey which really is evolving very much in the same way as an aerospace business, not only for those midsized turbines but also now with the very large gas turbine. And so it's a pretty exciting time for us. to be able to build out this business to be a very significant contributor for the company.

So I'll stop there just in case I'm now getting too carried away with it. But I want to make sure you hit the point of your question, Kristine.

The next question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

John, I'll try to ask a question that won't let you go on too long. But the market implied growth in your $9 billion, could you share that as well as perhaps you've been running, obviously, well ahead of long-term incrementals the 30% to 40% that you had previously spoken of long been blown past, is '26 another year of very high incrementals as we've seen in the last couple of years?

Let me deal with your latter point first, regarding margins and incrementals. I think as you know, I don't really give color on that at this time of the year, that's more for the February call. So I'll certainly deserve any profit guidance for February. I note that in Q3, our incrementals were, again, quite healthy at 50%. Obviously, we've given you a guide already for Q4. So I think it's a similar number for Q4, but Ken could always correct me on that. So it's pretty strong for this year. Next year, I guess, when we come up with a number, I mean it will probably [indiscernible] because it always does. We don't seem to be able to satisfy your expectations.

At the same time, I think that whatever we come up with will be a very satisfactory in 2026. So it's a long way of talking about the subject for a minute or 2 without actually seeing much at all. In terms of the first part of your question, which was where did we see end market growth. So my sense is that getting too deep into the guide at this point it's an approximation. I think Commercial Aerospace will be stronger in 2026. So I think the build-out of narrow bodies, both for Airbus and for Boeing will be stronger in 2026 as it has been in 2025. And also the likelihood of the widebodies, particularly the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787. I think both of those are going to be at a higher build rate this year. So I'm pretty optimistic about Commercial Aero.

So I see that being a few percentage points as an absolute higher than in 2025. In defense, coming off this year, which is pretty strong at plus 20, I can see us having a mid-single digits increase again on top of that into 2026. I'm pretty confident about our positioning on the defense side. And on the -- I was going to call it the industrial segment, which will wrap up 3 segments, which is the gas turbine one, which I think you can sense is going to be at the high end, the oil and gas which would be in the middle and then general industrial, we should be at the lower end or combining all of that and say, basically, that just getting into double digits as an increase. So that will be the sense I have for the underlying big segment commentary for next year.

But while I'm on a role, I'll just talk about inside Commercial Aero because I know you've got a follow-up with the question like what's the underlying assumptions. So I think Boeing 737 will be higher. So I'll say I use 40 or getting into the 40s as an approximation, the A320 into the early 60s or maybe, I don't know, 62,387 million you 7.5 and the A350, maybe 6.5 could be 7. So it's in those sort of areas. So it's is giving you directionally what I think you want without getting too specific because, again, I'd like to see how people close out our customers close out this year, what stated inventory is, as you know, certain of our airframe customers have been taking [indiscernible]. And I have to think about the robustness of their build while they've been taking [indiscernible] and the consistency. And hopefully, we're going to see improved consistency into 2026 in the same way we've seen it for the last 2 or 3 quarters, where it's become somewhat a little bit more predictable.

The next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America.

This is Mariana Perez [indiscernible] on for Ron today. First of all, congratulations, Ken, on the retirement, and congratulations on your contribution to the company and the industry in general.

I'd like to follow up on -- try to dive deeper as we think about next year into 2 things. Number one, how we think about, I'll say, on the commercial aero part, destocking trends and aftermarket trends or spare engine trends despite like these runs that we are all expecting on OE. And the second 1 is when you think about IGT how dependent the guidance is on the capacity that will be coming online end of this year and mid next year? How sensitive is guidance to the timing of that like incremental capacity?

Okay. Let's deal with the IGT part first and then go back to commercial aero. This year, we've seen the benefits of both small increases in gas turbine build at the large land-based turbines, probably a slightly higher build in terms of those midsized turbines in percentage of increase. But this year has also featured an increase in spares as the existing fleet both types of turbines and maybe the midsized turbines being very strong in terms of their space requirements because those fleets are working harder. So that gives you a picture there. For this year, when we move into 2026 and into '26 and '27, again, we're going to be -- we're going to see fundamental demand and this demand in turbine builds are expected to increase again into '27 beyond '26.

Is -- on the OE side, it's going to be obviously a factor are all the turbines going to be actually be built that are planned and how we are able to step up to those builds. And so I see that as -- whereas this year, I'd say, been slightly stronger on the spares and -- but still solid on the OE side next year. I think we're probably going to see a higher vector compared to this year on the OE demand but still strong spares demand. So again, I'm feeling pretty positive about those segments. I think difficult to judge exactly yet which 1 will win in terms of those 2, if there was at least between them.

Moving back to the Commercial Aero question. I've already given you a commentary regarding what I think build rates are, I think destocking essentially is finished this quarter, and I don't really see much evidence of that remaining if anything, it could only be a little bit left in the titanium area where people build up stocks because of either lack of build or trying to provide security stocks in the case of what happened after the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the supply issues out of [indiscernible].

In terms of spares and engine space, I think the 2026 is going to be another very strong year for that. If you do with CFM first, then I envisage that it's going to be strong on the CFM56 because the existing fleets continue to work hard still a backlog of parts and the end units are going to be put back on wing and into the air. And similarly -- and maybe even a higher area for those V2500 and the GTF engine. So spares demand is going to be very strong. And as these jet engines transition to the new, I'd say, versions of them, so the new parts, which you've got into the LEAP-1A and the ones which should go into the 1B next year and then into the GTFA then there'll be not only the OE demand but also the retrofit requirements for improving the robustness of those engines and to get a lot of engines back on wind. So I think I covered it.

Yes. And if I may squeeze another one, it looks like Asian history now because of how hectic the year is, but it wasn't long ago that you guys have to call for force majeure on the tariffs and raw materials, could you mind like giving us some color around like how you set today? And how you think about risks on raw materials and pricing and pass-throughs going into next year?

Well, I think we're pretty solid in terms of pass-through capabilities either under existing contracts or with new agreements that we've made with our customers for each of our end markets. And so what was the gross effect that we could see, I think, originally, it was up to $100 million. That the delay of implementation and certain exemptions that have been provided maybe that number came down. And then recently, we've seen some of the tariff increase again, thinking now on the Class 8 area. So it's been moving around and still continues to move around even as recently as yesterday.

But the net effect is still sub $5 million for the year, and that essentially is the drag that's just in terms of timing of recovery. So as an issue for Howmet, it really is a nonissue, sub-$5 million, and therefore, hopefully, it disappears into the woodwork in 2026.

The next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Congrats, John, on great results and Ken, on your retirement, although I'd argue with Kristine that working with John has plenty of fun. So I don't know what you'll do in retirement, that's even better. Can I...

I can agree with that, [indiscernible] you thinking.

Ken, I'm going to actually put this 1 on you just given, I got the comments on Howmet being more valuable, then the 3 pieces was very interesting. So over the next few years, where do you see Howmet state just given where the balance sheet is, leverage is at record lows, margins in each segment are terrific. So lots of areas of expansion. How do you think about Howmet over the next few years?

Yes, Sheila, I think I'm going to have to let John answer that one. I don't want to get fired this late, right?

I think the -- if you look at the journey that we've made over the recent years, from a trying to install a performance culture through, I'll say, more difficult times of COVID. It came upon us fairly quickly and then trying to really invest in our technology and then really address growing the company. And I think the growth trajectory is very encouraging. And so while we've been like -- walking on chewing gum or doing the [indiscernible], we've been growing and improving our margin. And my thought is that we'll continue to do that. But if the value equation, then I think maybe the growth will be a more significant factor over the next 5 years than the margin factor, and that's not to say that the margin won't improve, that's what we come to work for every day to try to achieve that.

I think there's lots of things yet to further expand in terms of whether it's increased automation capacities that we have or capabilities that we have in the company. There's the thing which we've been talking a lot about recently about how we can use the artificial intelligence and machine learning and our manufacturing plants. So it isn't just basic automation. It is data collection at extremes that we've never seen before. And when we have the opportunity next March, where we're planning on an Investor Day or Investor Technology Day facing it at [ Wisol ] plant again and we'll showcase the new manufacturing plants that we have there, beyond just the fundamental increase in robotics, which I think people have seen it also at a high level. It's another stage beyond that.

But for me, probably even more important that is that the what we've served the digital thread that we've been building throughout the manufacturing process from the chemical compounding right the way through core prep and then into [indiscernible] casting and being able to provide data and individual traceability right back to which fundamental elements for each of our parts that we're manufacturing. And then with that huge amount of data that we are positioning ourselves to collect, is that using various techniques to be able to use our [indiscernible] because the sheer scale of data we have or we've got to have available to us takes us something beyond any human being could possibly advise data crunch. And so I think that's going to lend towards a further improvement in our ability to improve yields and an improved yield, of course, goes with economics.

And then with the improvement in the yields, we can take the design tolerances to the further level, which you'll provide again for the next generation of content improvement and fuel efficiency for both not only our aerospace segment but also the gas turbine segment. So I think all of that coming together and using a combination of automation and AI and all the things we're trying to position for is going to be good for Sheila.

The next question comes from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

Congrats, Ken, on the retirement and the evolution of this financial model. Wanted to come back to incremental margins. Guys, you had this historical framework a few years ago of 30% to 35% on the incremental and you've now created this kind of wall of tough compares, but you've now had 2 quarters in a row where you've had a well above the 30% to 35% despite comparing to well above that. And so I was hoping to better understand is price or productivity, the bigger driver at the moment. And then as you move into 2026, can you stay above that historical targeted range despite the tougher compares?

Yes. I mean, again, I'm going to try to get away from 2026, Noah, at this time. And any number is always going to be a combination of things. In our incrementals, we've got obviously some leverage for volume. We've got the benefits of automation. We've got the benefits of yield. We've got the benefits of content and also, we have the benefits of price as well. So we have many individual threads going into that. And the only, I would say, parts which are currently negative would be the fairly high in gestation of labor, which takes, I think, as you know, a fairly significant trading time, never mind just the cost of recruitment.

And there's a slight degradation initially from those employees in terms of yield. And so what do I expect going forward is that hopefully, the drag of that labor becomes a little bit less because the denominator gets higher. But my guess is that we're probably going to have to hire a net higher number of people ultimately as we move through 2026 both for priming the pump again at the start of the year as some of the equipment I talked about comes in, plus the fact that we also envisage having to step up again into 2027. And so if you would ask me to call it today, I'd say we probably end with a higher net number. And so you've got that which will weigh upon us while still hopefully achieving all of the productivity improvements from the threads of automation and the new equipment coming in with a much higher level of, I will say, again, automation that we had in the past.

So there's such a lot of moving parts. It's difficult to pass all of that out. And then the only thing I haven't mentioned is the content on average will improve again as we move into next year because we'll be moving from 1 generation of technology to the new generation technology at some point during 2026 for the LEAP 1B program as an example. And then, of course, we have the GTF advantage, which is also being made today in fairly small lots. But with that significantly increasing as we go into 2026, really to get to a much follow run rate in 2027. So there's so much going on and with the buildout [indiscernible], it's really difficult to give you. I just feel at this point, we've managed us way through fairly well with really healthy incrementals. And I mean anything above -- I mean, if our EBITDA is at 29% anything above that is incremental beneficial to the company.

So I'm feeling as though we're going to be above that for next year. But without -- I'm not willing to comment yet about whether we're going to be on par with our incrementals this year or not or whether inevitably, there has to be some flattening of that. That it's just -- I don't -- the wait till February to comment about that.

The next question comes from Scott Deutsche with Deutsche Bank.

John, I think you said CapEx will remain at high levels into 2026 as well as into 2027. So just to put a finer point on that, should we be thinking about flattish CapEx in those years relative to 2025 work at that increase? And then does the mix of that CapEx shift more toward IGT and midsized turbines or is the majority of it still focused on aerospace?

In terms of absolute numbers, the majority is absolute dollars will still be higher for aerospace. But I think there'll be a percentage as a mix of a total. I think that the investments we're making in both the large and midsized turbines possibly be a higher relative percentage than it is this year. I think the 1 question I forgot to add on the way through the Q&A section as what do the economics look like for these turbines? And essentially, it's the same as for Aero. So if you were to pick up both our absolute and our incrementals for either the IGT part of our business, both large and midsize or aero and they're pretty much the same.

So it doesn't really matter what the say, the color of CapEx, which segment goes into because the most very good. And for me, it's more the fact that we have the opportunities. And it is just as I look forward, we, I'll say, more or less framed out, well, I think we're going to do 2026. But every time we sort of examine or have new conversations with [indiscernible] in fact, I was in Europe for the first part of this week. And I think if I got back last night to be able to do our earnings call is that, again, is only a conversation about improvement in opportunities which are there before us.

And so what causes me to believe that 2027 is also going to be significant number for CapEx. And so I see this year as we've moved up from what we thought was going to be I don't know, 350 to 370 or something like that, maybe a bit lower on that side we now probably going to burst 400. But as you see in 400 but with actually improving cash flow is that I think the greatest pleasure that I'm going to have next year is being able to deploy that amount of capital or more. And we don't deploy capital just because it's fun to do. It's hard work, but it's going to be backed by clear-eye thinking about customer utilization, customer commitment and economic return.

And I think you know we have pretty high hurdle rates for that to deploy that fresh capital. So my view is it's a good thing if we can spend 2025 level in 2026 and more in 2027 are more than that's going to be a good thing. And we just see increasing opportunities to build out the business.

[indiscernible] there's no further questions or Drew [indiscernible]. PT I think we should close given the fact less than a minute to get [indiscernible] ask a question.

Mike, did you have a question, Mr. Ciarmoli ?

Yes. John, not to belabor the point, and I'll try and be quick here with the call closing out. But back to these incrementals I mean you're clearly benefiting from spares demand, a combination of legacy utilization, combination of durability issues I mean, are you overearning on the Aerospace spares now? And is that driving the strong incrementals, does that normalize at some point? -- as maybe some of these light work scopes or different kind of work scopes trend back to normal?

Well, first of all, in the year, in the short term, pricing into the spares part and an OE part are exactly the same over a long-term basis that are differentiated because of, let's say, parts going to pass model. So no, there's no case of the over-earning in the immediacy. If you go back to previous calls, I have said that what we see is our spares business in total increasing every year for the next 5 years, didn't really want to go beyond 5. We may discuss whether it's is going to be the same angle increase, but there's no case that I can see where spares don't increase every year through the end of the decade. So that's pretty positive.

Thanks, Mike. So it's 11:01. So Drew close the call.

Yes, sir. This concludes our question-and-answer session and the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.