ORLEN Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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StocksGuide Unlimited – full access to AI analyses
👉 More detailed insights
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👉 Clear answers to your questions
Invest better with AI
StocksGuide Unlimited – full access to AI analyses
👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
👉 Clear answers to your questions
Invest better with AI
StocksGuide Unlimited – full access to AI analyses
👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
👉 Clear answers to your questions
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = zł184.08b | Revenue (TTM) = zł285.87b
Market Cap = zł184.08b | Estimated Revenue = zł288.90b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = zł190.56b | Revenue (TTM) = zł285.87b
Enterprise Value = zł190.56b | Forward Revenue = zł288.90b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
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ORLEN Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
12 Analysts have issued a ORLEN forecast:
Analyst Opinions
12 Analysts have issued a ORLEN forecast:
ORLEN Events
Past Events
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MAY
28
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
4 months ago
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FEB
19
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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NOV
20
Q3 2025 Earnings Call
10 months ago
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AUG
20
Q2 2025 Earnings Call
about one year ago
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ORLEN — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. My name is Anna Bockowska. I have the pleasure of welcome -- welcome to the presentation of Orlen Group's consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Today's event today's conference will be delivered by Ireneusz Fafara, Management Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Vice President and CFO. We are very happy to see you all of you who are gathered in the room but also everyone who is listening to us live. Mr. Ireneusz Fafara, President of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, will now take the floor.
Good morning, everyone. Financial... Results. Consolidated Financial results after the first quarter of 2026, which was an exceptional quarter. Everyone knows what was going on and it was quite dynamic, especially in the last month of the quarter. It gave us a lot of emotional events which we did not expect. Listens to what the most important people in the world had to say about the ORLEN shares. I'm proud to say that this dynamic situation and volatility actually did not affect our performance. We have demonstrated our strength, our resilience, our preparedness for very difficult conditions. And we are happy to say that our investors still trust us and compiled. After we presented our new strategy, we are proud to say that our value went up by 200%, and we are among the fastest-growing companies in the world in the energy sector.
Despite or irrespective of this volatile and difficult environment and despite what happened in the ORLEN shares, we managed to ensure availability of fuels to our customers. We decided that it is a priority in this very challenging period, full availability of all fuels and creating the most favorable conditions to offer the lowest prices possible to our consumers. We started by reducing our retail margin to minimum levels. We also launched practically from the very beginning, promotions, which I'll discuss later. And at the same time, the government at the end of March, published the CPN program, which allowed us to present what we see on screen right now. We have the lowest prices of fuel across the European Union. So together with the market, and following the decisions of the Polish government, we were able to offer such conditions, price conditions to our customers.
Irrespective of this volatile environment, we delivered very robust operational results in which was contributed by all the segments. We are delivering better and better financial results without the support of one-off events such as compensation or the accounting for the PGNiG results. So if we deduct or disregard those one-offs, you will still see that our EBITDA LIFO was the strongest and the record-breaking EBITDA LIFO results in quarter 1. What makes us really happy is that our performance and effectiveness across foreign markets is going up as well. The share of foreign markets and our revenue went up to 32% and the structure of the consumer segment have changed as well. And that foreign markets are contributing very strong to our results especially in Germany markets. The Energy of Tomorrow is a very important program. This program will involve the highest number of Polish suppliers.
This is why we started the Forum of the Suppliers of Tomorrow, and we are showing our investment program for this year and for subsequent years. Our expectations or requirements in relation with the way we can respond to their questions, their suggestions and their feedback. Around 500 suppliers took part in the program and the feedback is positive that this valuable and very helpful program. And this is why we believe that participation of the local content will be more and more important. We are planning to 3 conferences or events and different publish. While we speak about the investment program, we can now move on to the events of quarter 1. Let's start with the Energy segment. CCGTs in Grudziadz, both of them because we have 2. Grudziadz 1 is nearing its completion. And we believe we are sure that still in this year around summertime, the CCGT will be completed and we will have first fire. The second investment in Grudziadz is in the construction phase.
Construction work has started, and we believe that in 2029, it will be completed. We executed or signed the annex with the general contractor Ostroleka, it is expected that it will be launched in 2026, we started first construction work. As far as Siekierki is concerned, the situation is quite challenging. We have applied for the environmental permit. However, it was objected to buy a single environmental we are working on it, and we believe that we will start construction work soon. Baltic Power is our offshore projects. We have 78 foundations already in place. We have 42 out of 76 turbines that were launched, and we believe that the first supply will start in the summer of 2026. As far as Baltic East and Baltic West are concerned, the technical analysis are underway, design work and permitting procedures as well.
We are working on the launch of the Kolobrzeg Port project, and we have reserved the area at Kolobrzeg Port. So for Baltic West, we'll be able to use that 10 million which we secured under the national KPO program on the upgrade of our grid. We have already 1,000 kilometers of new and upgraded networks, and we also added 232 new supplies from renewable energy sources. As far as upstream supply is concerned, we are looking for new sources of hydrocarbons and focus on Norway and Poland in the Norwegian shelf we discovered 2 new field resources of hydrocarbon at Sissel and Frida Kahlo. This will add a lot of resources. We started new drilling work in Poland. We had first LNG supplies to Poland and the last 2 gas carriers were taken over in Korean shipyard.
As far downstream is concerned, there was a major event in Q1, we finalized work in terms of the time line as well for the new chemicals project. This means that we will avoid the penalties and we managed to reduce the budget for this investment by PLN 16 billion while not reducing any of its scope. The HVO project was launched or the operation was actually open, which will allow us to upgrade our production and increase the share of bio components by 300,000 tons per year. Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, we signed a preliminary purchase agreement, and we have a vision of how this will proceed until the completion of work and procedures by all the supervisory bodies, we cannot manage this new asset, but we are getting ready for it, and we believe that we will soon be able to strengthen our petrochemicals product range in order to compete financial of foreign markets. effectively. We opened a new hydrogen station and we also signed a contract with the local municipal transport company, and that means that will be able to decarbonize even more effectively.
Moving on to consumer products. We had record breaking both foreign market and in Poland. The share of German market in our consumer product structure went up very important. We are strengthening our electromobility offering. We increased the availability of e-mobility facilities in Germany, and we using our own facilities by 10%. We started the promotion for fuels in Poland. We launched it in March. It was supposed to be closed in April, but we prolonged it until the end of May and then until the end of the year. We are happy to see a number of customers joining or taking advantage of our both fuel and non-fuel offering. It's very difficult and challenging periods. We decided that the priority will be to ensure full availability of fuels to our customers despite this very difficult market, especially in the first month of the year and difficult supply of hydrocarbons to Poland.
We had to -- we saw that 800 distributors had to be closed, but it was still something that we have overcome. And we also offered ORLEN new products for our customers. In terms of security, we had mild winters, and we did get used to it. We had, unfortunately, a couple of accidents here in terms of the safety of our employees. However, the safety at work indicators are still pretty low. However, we are unhappy to see that downward trend and the fact that we did have a couple of accidents makes us worried. We want to make sure that all our employees are safe at work and they go back home to their families every single day unharmed. We started the recruitment under the program of assistance to the Polish services. We also supported fire services, which extinguished fire in the Lublin region.
We provided coffee and refreshment drinks free of charge as well as the fueling of the vehicles that took part in the fire extinguishing events. Moving on, the decision of the Management Board that we will recommend a record high dividend for 2025. This is not a final decision. You know that very well because we will have the General Shareholders' Meeting that will or may not approve our -- or confirm our recommendation. We want to transfer the success and the solid financial results to our shareholders. This is why we proposed such a high dividend, especially that the rating agencies analyze our performance and gave us quite solid assessments. That will be all from me. Slawomir Jedrzejczyk will take over to discuss our financial performance.
Thank you very much, Ireneusz. Ladies and gentlemen, everyone, I will now focus on the financial standing and financial position at ORLEN. Our revenue came in at nearly PLN 76 billion, which is higher than in previous quarters. It comes from the macro situation, higher prices of our products, but also higher volumes. EBITDA LIFO came in at PLN 14.1 billion, going up by PLN 2.6 billion year-on-year, and this solid result was delivered not only due to very favorable macro situation, but also due to the increasing operating parameters. The Cash flow from operations result at PLN 8.5 billion. This is pretty robust, and we had a certain effect of an increase of our working capital as well as deposits and derivatives. As far as CapEx is concerned, it came in at PLN 4.5 billion. We are gaining pace. We are accelerating our operations. I want to confirm that the investment plan that we adopted and published at the previous earnings call it is still in force.
As far as net debt to EBITDA, we gained the additional PLN 600 million, and we improved our cash position by that amount. As far as our operating parameters, I always say that this slide makes us happy, really happy because it translates into our financial position. This shows that we are able to deliver those basic operating parameters despite the challenging environment. As far as upstream and supply is concerned in terms of hydrocarbon production, it went down a little bit. This is due to both planned and unplanned downtime. The plan for the entire year is to maintain production at the level of 2025. We had a pretty harsh winter, especially in February. It increased the wholesale of net gas. We are also showing a parameter that shows that we are increasing the LNG deliveries from the United States. As you can see on this slide, we're talking about 11 terawatt hours going up by 163%. We have 2 contracts in force, one with Venture Global, the other one is with Cheniere.
And the second contract will be also added and the volume will be visible in 2027. In 2027, we'll have an additional contract with Sempra for 1.5 billion cubic meters per year. So in 2027, we will see the entire picture, the whole picture of our huge contracts with U.S. deliveries. In terms of downstream is concerned, we increased our crude oil throughput by 1%. And also we increased our fuel sales as well as petrochemical sales. As as energy is concerned, the production and sales of energy went up due to the harsh winter. So the same applies to heat production and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution. As you can see, heat production went up by 11% electricity production went by 10% and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution by 6% and 12%, respectively.
We are also showing 0 and low emission capacity share going up by over 4 percentage points, coming in at over 64%. And something that makes us really proud, as Ireneusz said, our situation in Consumer and Products segment, we have very robust results for non-fuel sales. We have very high efficiency here. We managed to improve our breakeven and this allowed us to reduce the share -- the price of fuels by 35 gross per liter. As far as our distribution results are concerned, the situation is pretty positive as well in terms of nat gas sales going up by 11% and electricity sales going up by 14%. Moving on to EBITDA LIFO. We reported an EBITDA LIFO, which was higher than in the first quarter of 2025. For upstream, we reported result, which was lower by PLN 500 million due to lower prices. In terms of downstream, it was comparable to the fourth quarter of 2025. The downstream situation is pretty complicated or challenging.
On the one hand, we have the revaluation effect, but it is partially offset by the currency conversion or currency exchange. and we are not able to catch up with the market and our margins are lower. We did not want to increase prices of our products to drastically. And this is why we had to sell the historic stock at the lower price. In terms of petrochemicals, we reached a breakeven, thanks to higher sales volumes and better exchange rate versus U.S. dollar. In terms of energy, both our large energy components went up. On the one hand, we have conventional energy, higher volumes of sales for both gas and electricity. On the other hand, we also have better results in terms of volumes. which were partially offset by lower margins on distribution and the higher costs set by PSE and gas system. For consumers and products, we reported PLN 1.7 billion, going up year-on-year. We had nonfuel sales increases and stable margins.
The retail margins in Poland were lower than in 2025, as Ireneusz said, in the Czech Republic, Germany and Austrian markets, those margins went up. On the other hand, we had higher sales volumes in the nonfuel segment. Corporate functions, the result is lower than higher than last year, then this tells us that we need to focus on the costs as well as here in this particular segment. In terms of our CapEx, PLN 5.4 billion in the first quarter. Our target for the entire year was upheld, and we are showing our largest CapEx projects that were in progress, especially new chemicals, we want to spend about PLN 6 billion on this particular project, but we have other projects in downstream. We are continuing offshore projects in the Energy segment, the 4 CCGTs we talked about before and also in Consumer Products, we are expanding our fuel station network. We're moving on to discuss cash flow, which is very important because if we generate cash, we are able to deliver the historically largest investment project and also generate historically high dividends.
There are 2 parameters which need to be discussed, especially the working capital at minus PLN 2.9 billion, which is only natural because we need more working capital. So the PLN 3.9 billion meant that we needed to freeze more cash and working capital, while when we stabilize the situation and reduce prices, some of that amount will be reversed. And the second figure that needs to be commented on PLN 3.9 billion for the valuation of deposits and derivatives. I believe that we have the most complicated policy in terms of hedging. We are hedging the prices of crude, gas and refining products as well as CO2 certificates.
In March, we saw a high volatility on the one hand. And on the other hand, we saw a very dynamic situation in the market, and we had to have more deficits at PLN 3.9 billion. This does not mean that this amount will be reported finally in our financial statements. We'll see how the settlement will be handled. But I would like to confirm that this is our standard long-term hedging policy in order to flatten out the volatility. If there is a high volatility, which is favorable, then the hedging transactions act contrary to that trend and the other way around. So this is a very consistent policy that we have had for many, many years and will have it in the years to come. So as a result, PLN 14.1 million for EBITDA LIFO, PLN 8.5 million operating cash flow and PLN 7.5 million for investment cash flows, and this includes leasing. We also had PLN 0.4 million for interest and grants. This means that we had to have higher cash spending. But all in all, we managed to report an increase by PLN 600 million, and this is confirmed by the solid ratings from the agencies.
Moody's gave us A3 with stable outlook and Fitch Ratings gave us BBB+ with stable outlook. This is an external confirmation of our financial strength. As far as our liquidity is concerned, just as in the last quarter, in the quarter before, our financing sources are well diversified. We have credit loans and our currency structure and bonds and our currency structure is adequate to our exposure we have debt in both euro and PN as well as in USD. And what's really important is the average debt maturity, which is 7 years. This shows that we have a very solid liquidity position, and this is why we're able to recommend the PLN 8 per share for a dividend. We are ready to make that payout still in June according to our proposal. The dividend record date is June 25. But obviously, we're waiting for the final approval of that dividend by the General Meeting of Shareholders, which was about to take place on the 9th of June.
We are able to pay out that dividend while still delivering the historically largest investment program for the coming -- for 10 years. The last slide shows us key initiatives for 2026. This was discussed by Ireneusz before. I would like to emphasize very strongly, however, that in terms of our growth, we will deliver our investment program while maintaining cost discipline and very effective management of projects. We are convinced as the Management Board that we have streamlined, finally streamlined our processes that were launched years ago for those old projects. Those projects are now on the right track and the right trajectory, but we will still work on it. We will not rest on our laurels. We want to make sure that our investment programs are delivered as effectively as possible. And the second component I'd like to discuss is our operational excellence, the resilience and agility.
I believe that we have managed in the first quarter, we have managed to be very effective here. and we are able to react effectively to the challenging situation. Our main goal was to ensure the availability of products and fuels as well as gas. It's difficult to make such a huge organization as ORLEN so agile, but we're doing our best to make sure that we are both resilient and agile. And the third component, financing, which is very close to my heart. Our goal is to secure financing to have refinancing as well in order to generate cash to pay out record-breaking dividends on the one hand, but on the other hand, to proceed with ORLEN's largest -- historically largest investment program. So thank you very much for your attention. And rest assured that we will continue to work on it.
Thank you, and thank you for your attention, and see you next time.
ORLEN — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Resilient Q1: record adjusted profits and strong cash flow support a PLN 8/share dividend proposal and an accelerated investment push, but hedge MTM and permit risks persist.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Revenue: ~PLN 76.0bn in Q1 2026.
- EBITDA LIFO: PLN 14.1bn (+PLN 2.6bn YoY). EBITDA LIFO = EBITDA using last‑in, first‑out inventory valuation (adjusts margins for inventory effects).
- Operating cash: PLN 8.5bn (cash generated from operations).
- CapEx: ~PLN 4.5–5.4bn in Q1; full‑year investment plan maintained (largest multi‑year programme in company history).
- Dividend: management proposes PLN 8.00/share (record date Jun 25; final approval subject to AGM).
🎯 What Management Says
- Fuel priority: ensured nationwide fuel availability, cut retail margins and extended promotions to keep consumer prices low during market volatility.
- Accelerated investment: continued rollout of CCGTs, Baltic Power offshore (first supplies expected summer 2026), HVO bio‑upgrade (+300ktpa), hydrogen and grid upgrades; local supplier forum to boost Polish content.
- Discipline & growth: maintain published capex plan, pursue petrochemicals expansion (preliminary deal for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins), and emphasize hedging and cost control despite mark‑to‑market swings.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Timelines: Grudziądz‑1 first fire expected summer 2026; Grudziądz‑2 by 2029; Baltic Power ramping this summer; new LNG volumes materialize further in 2027 (additional Sempra supply ~1.5bn m3/yr).
- Production targets: upstream volume guidance seeks to hold 2025 levels despite Q1 downtime; petrochemicals capex for new chemicals ~PLN 6bn.
- Risks: environmental permit delays (Siekierki), hedge mark‑to‑market volatility (PLN ~3.9bn impact on deposits/derivatives), and operational safety incidents; ratings supportive (Moody’s A3, Fitch BBB+).
⚡ Bottom Line
- Verdict: Q1 shows resilient profitability and cash generation that fund an aggressive investment agenda and a generous dividend proposal; investors should weigh strong growth execution against hedge MTM noise, permit/permiting and capex delivery risks.
ORLEN — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everyone. Please welcome to the presentation of Q4 of 2025 financial and operating results of Orlen Group. We are sitting here in Warsaw in Orlen headquarters together with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, company's CFO; Konrad Wlodarczyk, IR team; Marcin Piechota, IR team; Daniel Obajtek, Head of Controlling. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm heading Investor Relations. We're going to have a presentation that will be followed with the Q&A session.
Without further ado, I will now hand over to Slawomir, please. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Jakub. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's my pleasure, as always, to present you fourth quarter Orlen financial results. And I will start by saying that it was absolutely a very good quarter for us and the whole year 2025 was very good. So if you look into Slide #2, where we present the main financial indicators, we delivered EBITDA LIFO in the fourth quarter of PLN 12.2 billion and altogether, almost PLN 42 billion for the full '25 year. And I would just add one remark if we assume the same macro conditions for the past years as we were operating in 2025, definitely, that was the record high year for Orlen.
We delivered very robust cash flow from operations, PLN 12.9 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 47.4 billion. We continue our CapEx program, so PLN 11.5 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 32.6 billion for the full year. And what's very important, our net debt position is very, very strong, namely is negative, meaning cash flow positive of - I mean, cash position of PLN 1.4 billion.
So now let's move to Slide #3, where we present operating parameters. As you know, we operate in Upstream & Supply Downstream, Energy, Consumer & Products. So let's start with Upstream & Supply. The market environment was unfavorable for us, meaning crude oil price and gas price was lower in the fourth quarter as compared to last year. However, we continue production of crude oil and gas at the same level roughly but we increased gas share of 1 percentage point. And what's very important, we increased our sale of gas of 44%. Basically, half of this increase is better volumes on Polish market due to the weather conditions. And the second half is seizing opportunities on German market by our trading branch in Germany. Basically, the spread were favorable. So we took this opportunity to increase the sale.
If we move to Downstream, Downstream environment was favorable. As we know, refining margin and differential altogether almost doubled as compared to last year. Petchem a little bit better. It's, of course, too early to say that the market environment in petchem is going to be better. However, this is a positive signal, I believe. Altogether, we have crude oil throughput of 96% utilization. So it's very good, 100% in our Polish refineries. And this led to increase in the wholesale fuel increase of 5% year-on-year. Slight decrease in petrochemical but this is, as we all know, due to the situation in petchem environment.
As regards Energy, from the market environment perspective, energy prices increased. And what's very important, we increased electricity generation, heat generation and electricity distribution and gas distribution. As you can see, effectively 18%, 2%, 5% and 3%. So those are very good results from energy sector.
As regards Consumer & Products, market environment from the consumption point of view was favorable for us. Basically, consumption increased in gasoline, diesel as well as electricity and gas. So as a result retail gas sales by 4% and retail electricity sales by 8%.
So now let's move to Slide #4, where we present EBITDA delivered by each segment. So this slide absolutely proves and our results in the fourth quarter and the full year '25 proved that we built a very diversified operating model that gives us a resilience in this challenging macro environment. So starting from the fourth quarter, upstream and supply, PLN 4.2 billion. That's lower than last year. However, last year was in much better macro environment with much higher gas prices and crude oil prices. So you may say that this year -- this quarter, fourth quarter this year is a kind of normalized EBITDA.
In Downstream increased by PLN 2.7 billion. So we achieved PLN 3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. This is a result of more volumes, as I described earlier, and better refining margins. In Energy, slight increase of PLN 100 million. That was basically due to the higher distribution EBITDA and the production -- higher production was offset by higher CO2 costs. So as a result, PLN 100 million increase.
As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 1.2 billion delivered in the fourth quarter. This is a kind of normalized level because last year, it was negative PLN 200 million but that was due to worse market environment. And at the same time, there was a one-off like purchase price allocation of -- that decreased the result last year. But what was very important, if we look into the full year, on the right-hand side, Upstream & Supply delivered PLN 16.2 billion, so PLN 2.3 billion less than last year as we described, lower crude oil and gas prices. Downstream increased to PLN 9.5 billion due to refining margins and volumes and Energy increased by PLN 1.6 billion to PLN 12.5 billion and Consumer & Products delivered PLN 6 billion. So altogether, very diversified and really resilient business model.
If we move to Slide #5, when we present cash flow from -- cash flow for 2025, that was absolutely great year for us. We delivered PLN 47.4 billion operating cash flow. You may, of course, say that a few billion Polish zlotys out of -- it was a kind of extra money we generated due to the fact that crude oil prices and gas prices dropped but nonetheless PLN 47.4 billion, and we spent this money for investment programs, PLN 32.5 billion. We paid, as we remember, PLN 6 per share dividend, which was PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we managed to decrease net debt by PLN 8.5 billion. So as I said at the beginning, our net cash position is PLN 1.4 billion at the end of '25. What's very important for us, we keep investment-grade ratings, Moody's A3 stable outlook and Fitch ratings, BBB+ stable outlook.
If you look into Slide #6, we not only generate very good cash flow but of course, we have very strong balance sheet and diversified sources of financing. So we are very positive as regards looking ahead because we know that we have quite significant investment program in place. However, our balance sheet is really strong. We present here diversified sources of financing. So basically, we have credit and loans but we have all different kind of bonds as well, euro, green, euro, U.S. and corporate bonds. And so PLN 25.1 billion gross debt at the end of '25.
If we move to CapEx, Slide #7. So here, we present our realization from '25 as compared to plan '25, and I will start with that. Maintenance was rationalized, I would say, so PLN 400 million less. In upstream and supply, we communicated earlier that we moved 2 gas ships to '26. So that was roughly PLN 1.2 billion, and we stopped some upstream projects in Norway and Poland. So as a result, PLN 2.9 billion less CapEx spent in Upstream. In Downstream, PLN 400 million less. That's basically our investment in Lithuania, hydrocracker that was, you may say, moved to '26 as well. In Energy, we reallocated CapEx from Upstream & Supply and Downstream to Energy partially. So that's why we spent more on solar projects of PLN 0.6 billion and CCGT plants in Grudziadz and Grudziadz of PLN 0.2 billion.
If we look into our plan but this is our basic plan. So of course, subject to any rationalization and reallocation. So in the base case, we plan to spend PLN 36.3 billion. Maintenance, similar level to '25 to '25. of course, safety of our production asset is our key priority. However, this is the area definitely we can focus on as regards rationalization. Upstream, very similar level like '25, so PLN 7.8 billion. So exploration and production projects in Norway, Poland and Canada, we will continue that. In Downstream, PLN 8.9 billion. So this is an increase of PLN 2.3 billion as compared to last year in '25. So in this amount, PLN 8.9 billion, the highest amount, as you can imagine, is [indiscernible]. This is roughly PLN 6.1 billion. This is our base case. And then we have a few projects in downstream business like HVO, HVO in Plock or hydrocracking in Mazeikiai or rapeseed oil pressing plant in Ketrzyn, altogether, this gives roughly PLN 2 billion, PLN 2.1 billion. So you may say that like 5 biggest -- 6 biggest projects contributes to this amount.
And then Energy, as you can see, energy is the highest CapEx in all 4 segments. And this is due to the fact that, as you know, first of all, we put a lot of emphasis on modernization and expanding our gas and electricity network in this regulatory business, PSG and Energa operator and the total CapEx is PLN 6.2 billion. Then we continue for CCGT projects, and this is roughly PLN 2.5 billion. So -- and then if you add on top of this wind and solar, you will end up with the amount of PLN 9.8 billion. As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 900 million, you may say this is evenly spread across 3 priorities we have in place, meaning expansion and modernization of fuel station network expansion of nonfuel retail network and building alternative fuel network E-mobility.
So now let's move to the last slide of my short introduction. This is outlook for '26. Here, we present a few priorities. This is not the complete list, of course, because we are a very large business. So we have a lot of projects and a lot of priorities. However, let me start by saying, and we group those priorities into 3 categories, meaning investment, operations and finance. As regards to investment, of course, our key priority is to continue our growth projects. However, we will put a lot of emphasis on budget discipline and project management excellence. Definitely, we're not in the past years, very good at that. And impairments we are posting is kind of evidence.
Maybe I will say that this quarter, we posted more than PLN 3 billion impairments, PLN 2.2 billion is for new chemicals projects, PLN 0.3 billion is for upstream and PLN 0.5 billion is for retail in Austria. So basically, another quarter with impairments. However, we are aware of that, and we need to focus on this budget discipline to deliver projects on time and within the budget.
The second priority here is, of course, our -- I mean, the biggest investment we have in place, which is new chemicals. I can just confirm that we are in the last phase of the updating integrated schedules and creating final budget and signing the agreement with general contractors. So once this is ready, we'll communicate to the market. This is -- I would not give you a precise date today because this is subject to corporate approvals. However, I can just say that this is top priority. So it should be a question of weeks rather than months. So once we are ready, we will communicate the details.
And what's very important here, we not only continue the CapEx program but step by step, we're commissioning our assets. So '26 should be the year when we complete Baltic Power, the first offshore wind plant. We will complete CCGT in Grudziadz and HVO in Plock. So step-by-step, this huge CapEx program we have will be concluded.
If we move to operations, this is absolutely our priority as well to strengthen our operational excellence to create a resilient and agile business. We are a very large enterprise. So it's difficult to be agile but we try to be as agile as possible. Market environment is very challenging. It's very, very dynamic. So we need to be ready as a company to have, first of all, resilience and this integrated business model proved that we are resilient. And then we need to be agile so that we can navigate in this macro environment in the best possible way.
The second point is here, secured and diversified sources of hydrocarbon supply, meaning crude oil and gas. '26 is going to be the first year without hydrocarbons from Russia. So really, this is our focus. However, I can confirm that we are prepared, secured. We proved this in the past quarters. So we have diversified sources of financing. We have term contracts, spot contracts. So we are absolutely on the safe side here. And then focus on maximum asset utilization, '25, it was a great year for us, 96% utilization in refinery and petchem assets. However, this year, we plan to have this quite big shutdowns maintenance shutdowns in Czechia and in Poland. So you may expect that utilization rate will slightly drop. However, we are doing everything so that we take out of our assets.
Now let's move to finance. Of course, our financing position is very strong. However, we are not just sitting, we are revolving our credit facilities. So one of that is PLN 2 billion. We are in the process of finalization, and we are arranging PLN 2.5 billion using export credit agency facility for new chemicals projects. And what's very important, this is the last point from my side. We are absolutely aware that our impact on macro environment is very limited. So we need to navigate in that environment. So our focus again is on market risk management, very dynamic from the commodity and from the financial standpoint, meaning crude oil, gas prices, products, FX, interest rates, CO2. So all those factors will be taken into consideration, and we react accordingly to the situation.
So that's all from my side, and we are ready to take your questions. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you very much for this quick presentation. As you probably have noticed, we went through one of the best quarters in Orlen history within minutes for the sake of saving the time for you to ask questions.
As usually, please the floor is yours for the questions. I will refer and name you according to the order you raise your hands. So first question is [indiscernible] Bosch.
2. Question Answer
I've got 2 questions. Congratulations on the very good results. I know it's kind of early but looking forward into 1Q '26 results, how would you describe reaching a similar EBITDA or even higher between PLN 12 billion or PLN 13 billion EBITDA? Do you think it's ambitious, overambitious? Is it realistic given current macro? That's the first question.
And the second question concerns the market consensus EBITDA, the one we see in Bloomberg, it's PLN 37 billion for this year. What is your comment on it?
Thank you for your question. Of course, it's difficult for me to comment the precise numbers because those are confidential information. So please allow me not to deliver you precise answer. I can just give you some kind of my impressions. So we all know what's the macro till the half of February. So basically half of the quarter passed. So we may say that refining margin plus differential dropped to USD 9.7 per barrel. So this is, I would say, normalized level. So I would not expect that this is something extraordinary. Basically, we are rationalizing refining margin and differential. So this is slightly positive as compared to last year. However, very negative as compared to the fourth quarter last year.
From the petchem margin, slight increase as compared to last year and slight increase as compared to the fourth quarter. So petchem slightly better. Crude oil, crude oil higher than fourth quarter, however, lower than the first quarter. So as you know, gas price is lower, Henry Hub spread versus TTF short, as you know. So a lot of factors that impact our performance. So from the consumption point of view, as we all know, the gas consumption is higher, electricity as well. So mixed views, I would say. So I would not give you a precise answer with PLN 13 billion EBITDA is the right assumption. We'll see. We still have 6 weeks to go.
And as regards full year, I will give you a similar answer basically. In the base case, we should assume that macro environment is not going to be as great as '25 as we know. So refining margins rather down. Crude oil, subject to geopolitical tensions, generally mixed views on crude oil. So if from the geopolitical point of view, situation is stable, we may assume crude oil price going down. But if the situation, especially with Iran, current situation with Iran is going to be tense, we may expect crude oil price going up.
Gas prices in the base case, as we all know, rather down, electricity prices rather down. So macro environment in the base case, as I'm saying, we are prepared for being lower than last year. But we are doing everything which is in our hands to improve the operational indicators. And from that perspective, you can be sure that absolutely focused on operational excellence, delivering CapEx on time and within the budget. Of course, we have these shutdowns, refinery shutdowns plant every 4-year shutdown. So utilization rate in our refineries and petchem plants, you should assume slightly lower. So definitely can be more challenging '26 than '25. But we'll do everything possible so that the result is as great as we can.
Next in line, Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citi.
So I have a couple of them. So first of all, can you please explain what is -- because on the chart, I don't quite get the difference between your operating cash flow and your EBITDA because you also pay taxes. There is -- I looked into your like a cash flow statement, there's like a reversal of provisions, which do not find a reflection on the balance sheet when you move from that position. So can you really say what happened, why your cash collection is significantly stronger than EBITDA given the taxes that you pay and so on? Because if you simply deduct the taxation from your clean EBITDA, then we are more than PLN 10 billion above that level. So that's question number one.
And then second follow-up to this one. How should we think about the dividend in light of this operating cash flow? Does this -- your normal dividend policy apply or not?
And the final question from my side is, what kind of implication you see from the ongoing Slovakian, Hungary situation where there is no crude supplies to that refineries? Does it have a positive impact to you? Can you benefit from it? Or what's the effect?
Okay. Thank you so much. As regards to the first question, really, you touched a very important point because I agree with you that in the normalized situation, you may assume that we deliver EBITDA, then we pay tax and this should be operating free cash flow. However, there are always those -- some -- we may call it one-off. However, this is subject to the hydrocarbon basically quotation. So we have changes in working capital. And then we have changes in the provisions in the obligatory reserves because obligatory reserves are included in this other. We have hedge accounting. We have CO2.
So this is really complicated, and we need to deep dive as regards that probably offline because this is not so simple. You said perfectly, if you look into our financial statements, Page #9, which is cash flow from operations, you have a lot of positions here that should be explained. So I can -- at this stage, I can just say that I agree with you that I would not say this is one-off, but this is -- this cash flow in '25 is kind of inflated by decreasing the pricing by this hedge accounting, et cetera. So in the long run, you should expect our cash flow from operations closer to our EBITDA, what we generate. For example, if you look at...
Is there any -- sorry to follow up. Is there any risk of the reversal of this positive one-off? So the kind of a cash flow, let's say, you generate whatever the consensus is PLN 37 billion EBITDA but your operating cash flow for next year is significantly lower. Is there a risk like this? And then how you smooth it out in terms -- in light of your dividend policy because that is linked to operating cash flow line.
Yes. As regards to changes in the working capital and changes in the obligatory reserves, of course, this is subject to the quotations. So if this is going to be reversed, let's see. If in the base case, we assume that those prices are going down, that means that we should we should have extra positive effect of working capital, not negative. As regards to those provisions, I would say that part of this, you may expect some negative but I would not say today definitely what kind of amount we can expect. But definitely, I can repeat again that I treat this cash flow from operations in '25 as kind of inflated a little bit due to the fact of this working capital and one-off items.
But as regards to dividend policy, so as you can imagine, we look carefully into the cash flow statements long run, rather, I mean, long run in a sense, '25 and '26. So dividend policy is valid. I can just confirm as always, that we should pay dividend. And it's too early today to say what's the final recommendation of the Management Board. This is going to be delivered in April once we present the final full year financial statements. But definitely, cash flow is good. So the question of '26 forecast, and we will prepare that and then we'll propose.
And as regards to Slovakia and Hungary as well, as we all know, they try to deliver crude from Mediterranean Sea. So I assume that in the base case, they will manage to deliver this crude and they will operate as they operate. Currently, they use reserves. So at this moment, we don't see a very significant turbulence in the market. And I guess they will manage to cope with that.
[indiscernible]
I have 3 questions, if I may. The first would be about Iran conflict that may happen or may not happen. But my question would be how the like potential escalation of that conflict affect your imports of Saudi crude and Qatari LNG. I mean, in such scenario, with switching to mandatory strategic reserves create any operational challenge for you?
Thank you for the question. Of course, we are observing the situation, how this will definitely affect if something happens crude oil quotations. As I said in my presentation, we create this diversified model. So we have 10 contracts, but our 10 contracts in crude oil is basically 50%. So we have spot contracts. So we are very active on the market. So just in case, I believe we build this competence and we are ready to reallocate from different sources. From the gas point of view, we have, of course, the contract with Qatar but this contract is just 2.7 billion cubic meters. So from the total delivery from us, of course, this is a significant part but not as significant that we cannot replace from other sources. So we build our competence on LNG market.
We know that '26, the next volumes will come from the second Venture Global contract, which is Plaquemines. So I believe the last quarters, the last years prepared us for any turbulence on the market from the crude oil and gas prices, I mean, gas deliver.
Okay. But can you say -- I mean, what was the share of Saudi oil right now in your feedstock? Is it 50%? Did I understand that correctly?
It's less. It's less than I assume like 40%, 40% plus.
Okay. And the second question would be a follow-up on that Venture Global situation. Could you provide us an update on the current status on the dispute regarding the Calcasieu project because recently [indiscernible], the proceedings with Venture Global, I mean, how is it going in your proceeding? I mean, when we can expect any ruling? And what would you expect about that Plaquemines LNG train? Do you expect the same situation as in Calcasieu that you're not going to receive any deliveries for the first part of the sanctioning of that new project?
Thank you so much. I can confirm what we said last quarter because nothing new basically happens in the meantime. So the hearing is expected in the fourth quarter this year. And then you need -- I mean, there is always a time like half a year for final verdict. So we expect the final verdict like in '27, end of first half of '27. So this is a kind of base case scenario. We know that the rulings are different [indiscernible] BP1. So we will see what's going to happen with us. As regards the information from the lawyers, we are fighting for positive outcome, and there is probability that the outcome will be positive. However, let's wait for the final case.
As regards Plaquemines, Venture Global confirmed that probably fourth quarter this year, they will start the first deliveries out of this contract of 5.4 billion cubic meters. So we may assume that in '27, we should have a kind of full deliveries from those 2 Venture Global contracts, PLN 2 billion from Calcasieu pass and 5.4 billion from Plaquemines. And then in '27, we will start 1.3 billion from Sempra. So basically '27, '28 will be the full years of deliveries of LNG from U.S.
And as of now you received the full amount of deliveries from Calcasieu pass or you're waiting for?
Yes, yes. So we started last year, as you know, '25. And this year, you may assume that the whole PLN 2 billion from that contract will be delivered.
Okay. And the third question, if I may, will be on capital allocation because in recent days, your CEO indicated that the updated strategy will include substantial CapEx dedicated to the energy transition still. And in the light of the ETS reform and declining carbon allowance prices, could those plans be adjusted? I mean, how flexible are you like in this area?
Of course, we look into those regulations and they impact us significantly. So still, we don't know what the final outcome is going to be. I would just say that energy transition is something, which is our priority, and this will continue. Our CapEx program was set in the strategy announced last year in January. So we will look carefully into all those projects. We will reallocate amounts if those are necessary. However, today, it's too early to say kind of what kind of rationalization, what kind of reallocation and what kind of final target is going to be placed.
I would just maybe add that in the strategy last year and here in this presentation as regards CapEx for '26, we don't include -- I mean we don't include M&A in '26. In the strategy, there was quite significant part of M&A. And so I believe that this M&A is kind of flexible part of our spending. So this is something we look carefully from the organic CapEx, growth CapEx, I believe in the next 3 years, we are quite done. We reallocated this CapEx properly. However, of course, always rationalization and optimization is in place if feasible.
Anna Kishmariya, UBS.
There is a little bit of a delay. A couple of questions from my side. First, I want to follow up regarding the EBITDA outlook for this year, but more from the new projects that will be on stream, what contribution do you expect? Second, in terms of your CapEx and M&A comments. On the CapEx side, how much do you think could be rationalization for 2026? Like where could you see the scope there? Also, you mentioned HVO in Plock CapEx for the year, though I thought that the project should be already in the starting up mode. So what is left there in terms of the CapEx?
And probably the last one is just a quick clarification check regarding the dividend. I think last year, the recommendation took place already with fourth quarter results in February. Why there is this change in recommendation now in April?
Okay. Thank you so much. So as regards to EBITDA and new projects, please bear in mind that Baltic Power is going to be in place [indiscernible] in the base case in September. So only fourth quarter will be a kind of extra EBITDA delivered. As regards CCGT plant in Grudziadz, we are targeting end of the year. So you should expect EBITDA delivered in '27 from that projects. HVO, yes, we are finalizing is basically close to being operational. So first quarter should be operational. So we don't deliver precise numbers as regards EBITDA contribution for the full year but definitely a few hundred million Polish zlotys should be added here.
As regards CapEx rationalization, this is ongoing task. We don't provide this number yet. However, I believe in our strategic update, this is my personal view, we should have this component of OpEx and CapEx optimization program, and we should deliver a concrete amount we would like to get out of those programs. So I'm not in a position to tell you today.
And as regards dividend, it's difficult for me to comment last year, I was not there. However, I believe during my past experience, I mean, 2008 to 2017, that was for 9 years. So I believe we always delivered dividend together with full financial statement in April. So that was the practice I used to operate. So I believe this is a good practice as well. This is closer to general assembly, and this is -- we know we have more visibility as regards '26. So that's my view.
We'll now turn to Michal Kozak, Trigon.
I have 2 questions, if I may. The first one, could you explain the -- sorry, could you explain the changes in operating cash flow? When we look at provisions amount, you reported some reversal in probably CO2 provisions in the last quarter and huge gain on investing activities these 2 components totaled over PLN 7 billion in the last quarter. Do you think that it's worth reporting economic net debt just like domestic utility companies did 1 year ago probably?
As regards this operating cash, to some extent, I answered some -- I gave some clarifications at the beginning of our call. So I can just repeat what I said there that we have those items we need to -- I mean, we need to investigate it deeply. However, this is more offline discussion. As regards to this investment, are you referring to this line loss on investment activity, which is included in the cash flow from operations statement?
Yes, this is a gain, not loss.
Gain because this is like reversal of impairments because this is impairments we are creating. So I said in the fourth quarter, there was more than PLN 3 billion, so actually PLN 3.4 billion impairment. So that's why this is noncash, we are reversing this. So...
So reversing provisions is connected with CO2 probably, yes.
So If you start -- if you look into our graph, which is EBITDA or EBITDA LIFO, that means this EBITDA LIFO is already excluding impairments. So that's why this line is basically not shown during our waterfall.
Maybe the last question. In your previous strategy, did you assume such a large TGE versus TTF gas price spread, which has doubled year-on-year basis and is having a positive impact on your domestic upstream operations and I in wholesale gas trading, do you believe that this spread should be sustained going forward?
This spread, we know what's the market environment currently as regard Henry Hub and TTF, and in the next few years. I mean again, in the base case based on the all the agencies, we should expect this spread to drop. So this is something that may impact, of course, our EBITDA definitely.
So you expect the spread to drop going forward?
Yes. As compared to '25 to '26, I mean, it's going down and now we will stabilize. If you look into our macro slide, you can see that Henry Hub increased from 57 to 77 and TTF dropped from 196 to 142. So definitely, the spread shortened. But as regards to TGE because you asked about TGE as well and TTF, right? But as regards to TGE, TTF, of course, this is subject to -- I mean, the market is volatile in the weeks like January this year and we are paying basically more for interconnectors. So in the long run, the situation is quite stable.
So the difference between TTF and TGE is basically obligatory reserves we need to keep and the interconnectors of this network we need to pay for. And this is more kind of stable. This is like between TTF or TGE and TGE is like 10%, 11% difference. And in the months like January this year, of course, this widens but you should assume this is absolutely temporary.
We'll now be going back to Piotr Dzieciolowski, who has a follow-up question.
Yes, because there was nobody in the line or a few people I decided to ask a follow-up. Can you please provide us a bit of an update of what are certain M&A processes you've been doing? We've seen the changes in the Grupa Azoty Management Board. How does this impact your acquisition of this polypropylene installation. You haven't succeeded the disposal of the parcel unit to Poczta Polska. And historically, you were talking also a lot about the acquisition of upstream in Norway, infrastructure in LNG. And the reason I ask about all this M&A on a net basis is that it seems that you can't lever up the company quickly enough. And therefore, how would you assess the risk of a possible tax on all the state budget is a little bit in the tight situation. And then if they have a company, we've seen a situation like this in the past, they were really trying to grab a little bit of money here and there. So just wanted to understand how you see the M&A CapEx or the amount, how you -- can you really spend or buy something in a sizable amount going forward? And on these 3 particular cases, like what happened?
Okay. Thank you. So M&A in M&A, we are very cautious, as I always repeat, because this is flexible part of our spending and depending on the situation and our cash flow position. So currently, only gap is on the table. As you know, we extended our offer to purchase Polyolefins in Police of PLN 1.023 billion. So this is something we communicated. This is valid, and this is the only feasible M&A, which is currently in place. However, we are looking, of course, in Upstream segment into any possibilities, nothing concrete on the table. But if you assume that we should increase our production of hydrocarbons, it's not that easy to allocate organic growth so that significantly we can increase our production.
So if we still continue that strategic move, we may consider an M&A. But as I said, may consider, there is nothing concrete. And similarly to our renewables projects, so like wind, solar farms, this is something we are analyzing as well. And if there is a good opportunity, we may allocate some resources in Poland for Polish project as well. So this is from M&A point of view, I believe the situation.
But as regards to your second part of the question, you can imagine that I'm not in a position, it's difficult for me to comment on any possible moves in that area.
Thank you very much. You are all more than welcome to have follow-ups. But now we'll turn to [indiscernible] We can't hear you. Okay. We're having some technical difficulties. So we'll turn to.
We'll come back to [indiscernible] in a minute.
I would like to go further for Michal's question about the supply and upstream segment because I understand looking at TTF gas prices this year should be under the pressure from the prices downgrading. I would like to ask you about forces or your actions that can the segment EBITDA this year, for example, from trading and other perspective. What can we expect this year from the segment besides the lower gas prices? There are any forces that can support the results this year?
Okay. Thank you so much. So when I close my first part of the presentation, I indicated at the last point that market risk management is in spotlight. So of course, we know the forecast, we know the pricing. So we are not sitting and waiting. We are hedging. So any negative impact is not going to have a kind of full 100% in EBITDA because partially, we are hedging this. We don't provide, of course, the details of our hedging policy and our hedge position but this is one area we can work on. Of course, it is a drop in crude oil prices and gas prices from our production assets apart from hedging this very little we can do. So basically, trading, trading and the active trading. This is the answer for the drop in crude oil prices and gas prices in the Upstream segment.
And of course, the second part, as you know, we communicated that once we have LNG from U.S., we don't always deliver this LNG to Europe. We find new markets in Asia. So we delivered to Japan. We delivered LNG ship to Japan, for example, last year. So this is something we are considering as well.
Thank you for your questions. Thank you all for active participation. It seems that the questions and especially the answers were exhaustive enough because we see you that there are no further questions. So thank you very much for the call, for active participation. As you have noticed probably, a little bit turned to your side to give you [ more opportunities ] for active discussion. We'll keep on doing that.
So thank you very much for this participation for the Q4 results. We will see you on the road for the sake of information, we'll be hosting meetings with Polish buy side beginning of March. We will be on the road with international investors starting from the first conference mid-March. And for the time being, we kindly invite you to the press conference call that will be held in already 20 minutes including the CEO of the company, Ireneusz Fafara.
Thank you very much for this call and see you in the Q1 conference call in May.
ORLEN — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome again. We are sitting here in Orlen headquarters in a meeting room to discuss Q3 and 9 months of 2025 ending September 30 financial and operating results. We are here in the room with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Group CFO; Daniel Obajtek; and my name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations. Please don't -- please mind that we're doing it old school without video. So this is normal [indiscernible] function or technical problem. We would like to keep it that way for the time being and maybe further. So we will kick off. We're still having some joiners coming in. But since this is 5 past already, we'll be kicking off. And now I'll hand over to Slawomir, please.
Thank you, Jakub. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start only by saying it's good to be back. Warm welcome to everyone. It's my pleasure and privilege to present Orlen quarterly results. I would like to start with the highlights. First of all, macro environment and mixed views on that. First of all, lower oil and gas prices. So as you know, that impacted our upstream business. However, very good refining environment, very high margins. In petrochemicals, still, we see market pressure, both in terms of margins and volumes. Electricity, stable prices. And in terms of retail, fuel retail, we observed lower fuel consumption, especially in diesel. And let's look at operations, and this is very positive news, I believe. We delivered very good results in operations, higher gas production, distribution and sales, higher throughput and wholesale fuel sales.
However, lower sales in petrochemical, as I said, higher electricity production and higher nonfuel sales in retail. So as a result, if we look into the financials, we delivered very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion, very high cash flow from operations altogether for the first 9 months of 2025, PLN 34.4 billion. And we managed to continue our CapEx program. Altogether, we spent PLN 21.1 billion for the first 3 quarters, and we paid record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So as a result, we managed to decrease our debt level by PLN 6 billion in 2025. So now let's move to Slide #4, which is highlights, financial results highlights. As you can see, revenue dropped to PLN 61 billion in the third quarter. However, that was due to the fact that oil and gas prices were lower. Then very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion altogether, close to PLN 30 billion in the first 3 quarters. Very good cash flow from operations, as I said, although in the third quarter, slightly lower than in past quarters due to the fact that we increased our working capital by PLN 2 billion in the third quarter due to the fact that the prices increased and the volume increased. CapEx, we continue our CapEx program.
Our budget was PLN 35 billion. So currently, after 3 quarters, PLN 21.1 billion. I will come back to this in the slide dedicated to CapEx. And as a result, free cash flow close to PLN 1 billion and very, very safe net debt position and net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.14x. So now let's move to EBITDA delivered by segments. As you can see, we delivered good results in all the segments, Upstream and Supply, PLN 3.3 billion; downstream, PLN 2.4 billion; Energy, PLN 2.2 billion and customer and products, PLN 1.6 billion. So altogether, PLN 8.9 billion. And what's very interesting, I believe, is that the bottom is a change year-on-year. So in Upstream, it's minus PLN 3.2 billion, but I would like to pay your attention that basically the results of '24 were, let's say, inflated, PLN 1.8 billion out of this PLN 3.2 billion is basically higher gas prices we achieved in '24 due to the fact that we contracted '24 based on '23 prices, PLN 0.8 billion is basically purchase price allocation that inflated results in '24. So you may say that this drop is, of course, due to the fact that there were lower prices of oil and gas. However, please bear in mind that '24 is not comparable due to those 2 one-offs, let's say. In Downstream, PLN 1.9 billion higher results, which is, I believe, great due to fantastic macro environment in refining from the refining margin point of view. Very solid results in Energy and Consumer Products.
Corporate functions increased by more than PLN 200 million. PLN 100 million is, you may say, phasing and PLN 100 million is due to the fact that we increased our labor and general expenses by a few percentage points year-on-year. Now let's move to Slide #6, where we present our operational results. And this is evidence what I said that from operations, it was a very good quarter. So we increased production and wholesale gas sale in upstream and supply. We slightly increased crude oil throughput and wholesale fuel sale by 1 percentage point. However, you can observe here minus 16% drop in petrochemical, and this is clear evidence that petrochemicals under huge pressure, both from petrochemical margin perspective as well as volumes. In energy, steady growth in almost all areas, gas distribution plus 3%; heat generation, plus 5%; electricity generation, plus 7%. And what's very important, renewables generation increased by 43%. So what I can say is that currently in the electricity generation, renewables constitute 17%. This is 4 percentage point increase as compared to last year. As regards Consumer and Products, very good results in the retail gas and electricity sales. However, we see some pressure on the consumption of fuel in Poland, especially diesel. That's why you can see that our retail fuel sales dropped by 2 percentage points. Now let's move to each segment where we elaborate more.
So let's start with Page #7, Upstream and supply. We managed to produce up to 200,000 BOE per day. Majority of this -- more than half of this is, of course, Norway, but then we have Poland and the remaining amount is Canada and Pakistan. Majority of this is gas production. And if you can see, the result is lower by PLN 3.2 billion. But as I explained, upstream Poland and Upstream International, this negative -- huge negative impact of lower gas and oil prices was to some extent or even a big extent, offset by higher production, both in Poland and Norway. And this PLN 2.8 billion, as I explained before, basically, this is lower realized gas sale price. So you may treat it as a kind of one-off from '24 and negative impact of the settlement of PPA, this is PLN 0.8 billion again from 2024. So now let's move to Downstream. And definitely, high refining margins help us a lot. So in the third quarter, that was almost doubling USD 15.2 per barrel. However, petrochemical margin is under pressure, 16% drop to PLN 168 per ton, but was very good. I believe crude oil production improved by 1%. So utilization of our Polish operations was basically 100%, whereas Lithuania, 94%. And in Czech Republic, that was lower utilization, 75% due to plant and unplanned shutdowns.
So there was a failure in Litvinov. So that's why we produced less petrochemical products. So as you can see on this slide, petrochemical is minus PLN 92 million contribution to EBITDA LIFO. However, if it hasn't been for Litvínov failure, I believe that would be a kind of slight plus in the petrochemical business as well. However, we all know that we are looking at downstream business from the whole value chain perspective. So of course, great refining is offset by weak petrochemical business. However, altogether, I believe Downstream delivered very solid results of PLN 2.4 billion. Now let's move to Energy. The biggest improvement, higher result by PLN 500 million basically and the biggest improvement is in distribution networks of PLN 318 million, and that was basically due to increase in gas distribution volumes and higher gas and electricity distribution tariffs. In all other areas, as you can see, heating, conventional energy, new energy and electricity trading, we delivered positive results as well. Now let's move to Consumer & Products. Very stable result in retail, fuel and shops. And we see some pressure on the consumption and on the volumes. That's why it was a slight -- slight drop in this -- in that area. However, we managed to regain that drop from the nonfuel sale. We continued our promotions during summer period. So that decreased the margins.
However, we managed to regain that from the nonfuel sale. And this increase of PLN 300 million is basically retail electricity and gas. But please bear in mind that part of this increase was again a kind of one-off from '24 that was positive impact of the settlement of PPA, roughly PLN 100 million, so slightly inflated the results. Altogether, PLN 1.6 billion EBITDA, very good result in Consumer Products. Now let's move to CapEx. So you can see the split of CapEx, our budgeted CapEx for '25, PLN 35 billion, and that's almost evenly spread across upstream supply, downstream and energy. However, in the past quarters, we indicated that our CapEx program is roughly between PLN 33 billion and PLN 35 billion. So looking at utilization of CapEx -- realization of CapEx for the first 3 quarters, probably we may expect to be at the closer to the lower end of this range. However, we'll see how this develops in the fourth quarter. Of course, we continue our projects in upstream and supply to increase our production according to our strategic goals. In downstream, of course, we have 3 areas of projects. One is enlarging value chain, which is new chemical project. Then we improve our product slate, and this is the construction of, for example, hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai or hydrocracking oil block in Gdansk.
And of course, we are doing projects that create biocomponents, second-generation bioethanol like [indiscernible] bioethanol in Jedlicze. In energy, of course, we all know that energy transformation is not only renewable energy, but we need to absolutely enlarge and modernize distribution network. So that's why you can see expansion and modernization of power grid and gas distribution network. And our key projects in the renewables energy is, of course, Baltic Sea. So we continue this project, and we target in the second half of 2026 to have this farm fully operational. We continue as well our CCGT project and Ostroleka and Grudziadz second half of '26 should be operational. And of course, we started the new projects like CCGT, Gron, the second plant and in Gdansk. As regards Consumer and Products, we expand and modernize and rebrand our fuel network stations, and we build alternative fuel stations network. So this is ongoing tasks, and we allocate sufficient CapEx for that project. So now let's move to our liquidity position. On Slide #12, we present the waterfall. So we generated -- or we delivered PLN 34.4 million operational cash flow. That was, of course, inflated by a working capital decrease, PLN 4.8 billion altogether for the first 3 quarters. However, the first quarter itself was a kind of minus PLN 2 billion. So we observed this effect of increasing oil and gas prices and volumes increase.
So we spent investment cash flow PLN 21.9 billion. That includes our leasing cash out and managed to pay a record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we decreased our debt by PLN 6 billion. So we are in a very good financial position for the next years to come. We all know that we have quite significant CapEx program for the next 3 years. So this safe debt position is very helpful. Maturity, this is very important as well. Average maturity. We have like 2022 and '23, so like 7 years -- 6, 7 years of average maturity. So to finalize outlook, which is probably the most interesting slide in my presentation because here, we present how we see the macro environment and our operations. So we believe that we see fourth quarter so far, at least '25 as compared to third quarter '25 positive in upstream -- positively in Upstream and Energy segments, more or less stable in downstream and lower due to seasonality in customer and products. If we deep dive a little bit in all the segments. So in Upstream and supply, higher production because we don't have any significant maintenance works. We expect higher gas prices due to seasonality and higher sales volumes as well. However, lower oil prices that can, of course, impact the upstream business as well.
But altogether, we believe it can be, at least, as I said, so far, good quarter for us. From the energy point of view, again, seasonality, so higher production sales and distribution, higher heat production, higher electricity quotations and higher gas prices may affect slightly negatively, of course, in Energy segment, however, altogether, positive as well. And mixed views in downstream, of course, refining is absolutely great, as we know. So this continues to be great. However, we may expect a little bit lower throughput, lower fuel wholesale volumes due to seasonality and of course, challenging environment in petrochemical business. So that's why, all in all, probably a kind of stable situation is the most probable outcome in downstream. And Consumer & Products, due to seasonality, we expect lower fuel sale and energy and gas negative as well. Of course, higher gas sales volumes, but we expect a negative impact of electricity tariff reduction and maintained frozen prices for household. So that concludes my presentation. So we are ready now for Q&A. So Jakub?
Yes. Thank you very much. As usual, I would like to take your questions by saying who raised their hand first. And surprisingly, but not so much to ourselves. It's Anna from UBS, who's going to be asking the first question. Please go ahead. Anna, we can't hear you.
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me now?
First will be around the wholesale margin in the refining. Can you please provide more details around what is the dynamic there? Because it looks like given how strong the refining margins currently are, it should be a very good support for the downstream segment in fourth quarter? And my second question will be around Azoty Polymers, if you can provide any color around when can we expect any updates for the deal?
Thank you for your questions. As regards to the first one, we have Slide #17, where we present the kind of the most current macro situation in the fourth quarter. As you can see, model refining margin is absolutely extraordinary. This is 18. per barrel. We all know the macro environment, I believe. So I'm not going to elaborate much on that.
This is definitely due to shortage of supply and basically the situation in Russia or the war in Ukraine. So this continue to be like that. Of course, in our base case scenario for the next quarters to come, we don't assume such a high refining margin. This is definitely extraordinary from our perspective. As regards the polymers projects, I can only confirm what is officially published. That means that we put on our offer of 1 billion cash-free debt-free and our offer is valid officially till the end of this year. So we are waiting still for the response of Grupa Azoty. So no progress official progress at least from what we are hearing in that area. Hopefully, this will develop in a positive way, but it's too early to conclude.
But regarding the wholesale refining margins, which you mentioned are a bit on the lower side. What's driving that?
You mean this model refining margin, as I explained.
No, no, no. Like in the comments for the downstream segment, for example, one of the reasons you mentioned like lower wholesale margin. So can you please clarify there, what does it mean?
Yes. This is more or less like inland premium we generate, and this is due to seasonality and lower consumption. So that's why this is our indication that in the wholesale business, the margins can be slightly lower. So this is basically the explanation.
And do you see those getting worse in fourth quarter or it will be stable?
Sorry? Please say it again?
Comparing in fourth quarter to third quarter, do you expect it to worsen further? Or will it be stable?
You mean fourth quarter?
Third quarter versus third quarter.
We expect to be slightly lower, of course, as we indicated here, lower wholesale margins in refining. But slightly lower due to seasonality, basically. So this is not going to be a significant impact, I guess, as positive impact of model refining margin, definitely.
Tomasz Krukowski. Santander.
We can't hear you.
I think you can hear me now.
Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Three questions. The first one is specifically to Mr. Andre. And actually, I would like to hear your view on the dividend policy of the company. The company has a dividend policy. We are aware of that. But I'm wondering whether do you fully support this policy or you would like to introduce some changes to it. So this is the first one. The second is on the Energa situation. If you could give us some color in direction the analysis which you are performing is going? And the third one is on the refining. You already mentioned that you do not expect the refining macro to be so strong going forward. But actually, what is your reading of the situation right now? I mean, do you see any kind of lack of the product on the market, which is driving the prices? How is the situation with the Russian imports? What's your take on this?
Thank you so much. As regards dividend policy, of course, we have official dividend policy, which was approved by the Management Board and Supervisory Board. So definitely still valid. And I'm in a position individually to change it, of course. I can give you just my comment on dividend, and I express those comments all the time.
I was CFO in Orlen a few years ago. basically, my view is that the best dividend policy is basically to prove to the market that we are a dividend-paying company and consistently each year to pay slightly higher dividend. So if there is no extraordinary situation, my personal view is that Orlen absolutely should be a dividend-paying company, and we try to pay slightly higher each year, which was included in the strategy of Orlen from '25. And the second point, Energa, my comment on Energa is as follows. We have 4 segments, as we know, and we are much bigger due to those acquisitions we did a few years ago. So now absolutely, we should focus on creating a very efficient 4 business lines. And we are working on this efficiency in all the segments, so not only Energy segment, but as well in upstream and supply and customer and product. So this is the task which is ahead of us. We should create as agile and as flexible organization as we can. Of course, we are very, very complicated business, but we should be, as I said, as agile and flexible because macro environment can be challenging, can be dynamic. So that's why we are focusing to create in energy as well a very solid business line.
However, no formal final decisions have been made so far. So it's difficult for me to comment at this stage apart from all official information we put is going to happen with Energa. As regards to refining margin, so I believe I said that this is basically perception of the market and the shortage of fuels, which is due to the fact that some installations in Russia were attacked by Ukraine. So basically, there's a shortage of fuel, and this is basically the -- we don't expect the situation continue in a sense that it would be absolutely unwise to create base case scenario based on this margin. So that's why I said that in our base case scenario for the next year and for the next years, of course, we don't assume double-digit refining margins so that we are a little bit conservative, let's say, looking into the current situation. And it's better to be conservative, I believe, in this area than to create a business plan and then CapEx and cash out based on the huge refining margin. So that's my comment on that.
And actually, do you see the lack of the product on the market? Do you have the clients calling you and saying, giving more diesel or sending more diesel?
As regards our markets, no, we don't see a shortage. So from our perspective, absolutely, we are fully full of products.
[indiscernible].
Okay. So the first question, again, about dividend policy. Will the payout still be based on operating cash flow rather than free cash flow?
So as I said the policy. And of course, unless we change it, we are going to follow it. So as regards to dividend policy, this is, as you know, up to 25% operational free cash flow minus interest, but this is up to.
So each time each time, as you can imagine, we look before we give the final recommendation as regards to dividend payout, we look into current financial situation, current financial sting. And of course, we will propose this dividend in the second quarter of next year, probably. So we have still 2 quarters to go. So we will see how the market develops, how our cash flow look like, how our CapEx programs continue, and then we'll make the final decision. But yes, this is our...
Okay. So you don't assume any changes in dividend policy?
Unless we update our strategy and we change.
Okay. The second question from my side. isn't your approach too conservative when you look at downstream segment for the fourth quarter, assuming current $25 a barrel refining margin?
Of course, this is our perception. Maybe that's my view. It's better to be slightly less conservative than more optimistic. However, this is our assumption based on 6 weeks of the fourth quarter. So still, we have 6 weeks to go, and anything can happen. So this is our impression so far. And if you look purely from the refining margin, model refining margin perspective, which is more than PLN 18 billion -- USD 18 per barrel.
So this is absolutely great. However, we have some challenges, as you know, in petrochemical business. Petrochemical margin is lower than the third quarter. Of course, our volumes should be slightly higher. We still don't know from the operations point of view, how our assets will operate. So that's why we are more cautious on that. That's why we present more or less stable situation. So stable situation means small pluses, small minuses, and we'll see. We'll see how the fourth quarter.
We don't have follow-ups, please, Ricardo [indiscernible].
Can you hear me?
Yes.
A couple of questions on my side, if I may. The first one is on the CapEx. You mentioned that you're probably going to be at the lower end of the guidance of PLN 33 billion for this year. Can we assume that those -- that the PLN 2 billion would be spent next year?
Or do you expect some CapEx savings and you might not have to disburse those PLN 2 billion? And then the second one is on the Consumer Products segment. You're talking about some of the margin pressures because of promos during the summer, just how the market is in Poland now. Do you still see some pressures there and you're still doing -- having to do some promos? And when should we expect margins to stabilize or even see some inflection on the margin side?
Thank you so much. So as regards CapEx, -- if you assume that we have the budget of PLN 35 million, and I said that the range was PLN 33 million, 35 million. So basically, there are 2 items -- 2 big items that affects lower CapEx utilization. First one is CapEx spend on gas ships. Probably we explained that, that in the base case CapEx, we assumed 4 ships to be delivered. However, this year, only 2 will be delivered and the next 2 will be delivered next year. So that's why out of PLN 2.4 billion CapEx, PLN 1.2 billion will be booked this year and PLN 1.2 billion will be booked next year. So this is a kind of movement to next year.
And second billion, we explained probably as far as my colleague told me, it was first quarter upstream, upstream projects. So we decided to just not to continue with one of the projects. That's why we decreased the CapEx plan for upstream. So it's difficult for me to say whether this is postponed or not, but because in Upstream, of course, we have our plan to deliver more production in the next years to come. So definitely, in Upstream, we'll prepare the CapEx for '26, which is appropriate to the targets we initiated in our strategy. So this is as regards CapEx. As regards Consumer & Products, I would say the margins are stable, and this is a kind of market time to time, we create promotions. If we create promotions, basically, we create promotions and to decrease the margins or to decrease the sales prices. And as a result, the margin slightly decreases. However, our goal is to regain this in nonfuel sale. We have more customers enrolling to our VITAY program as a result, so loyalty program. So definitely, we are going to continue with that.
And if I may follow up on the upstream. On the strategy update, you had mentioned that you were looking at potential M&As in North America and the North Sea as well to increase your upstream production. Is there any updates on that front?
I can give you a little bit kind of my personal view and the corporate view as well. Basically, we have quite significant CapEx for the next years, 3 years to come. Our flexibility in this CapEx is not very significant as we know. And in our strategy, we indicated that we have CapEx, basic CapEx and options for M&A. And this M&A -- in M&A, definitely, we have flexibility. So that's why I'm very cautious as regards putting any meaningful targets in M&A. We need to look into our cash flow position. We need to look into the macro environment development, and then we'll decide how much money we have -- we can allocate for M&A projects. So at this stage, I can confirm there are no meaningful projects on the table as regards upstream in U.S.
[indiscernible].
I got a question on your Upstream and Supply segment. First of all, can you tell us what kind of production dynamics do you expect next year? I think you mentioned that you plan to upgrade production in the next years. And the second question, can you tell us anything on your gas wholesale margins going forward? When I look at your gas contracts signed for next year, I see very big spreads. And can you comment on it?
So as regards to the gas production, we are in the process of budgeting for '26. So I will not give you at this stage a kind of precise number, of course. And I can confirm what's in the strategy we put as far as I remember, the number of PLN 6 billion production from Norway, like PLN 4 billion from Polish operations. So this is a kind of target for 2030. So step by step, we are going to increase this number.
As regards TO the -- can you be more specific as regards to the wholesale margin? You mean wholesale in Poland or wholesale from the kind of U.S. contracts. And...
What I mean is the gas margins in Poland, the margins which you book in the upstream and supply segment. So what I mean is the contract signed on TGE, yes, compared to 1 month TTF?
Of course, we should look into development of gas prices, of course. And you are perfectly right in a sense that I explained a little bit this positive impact in '24. So '23 gas prices were very high. We booked at the high level, then prices dropped. So as a result, we managed to deliver roughly PLN 1.8 billion extra money. As regards to development of gas prices, of course, this is a big question, what kind of development we will see in the 2026. So at this stage, we don't provide a kind of full visibility on our goals. But generally, is going to be more stable than it used to be in the previous year. So I would not assume a very significant differences year-on-year on that.
Okay. So if you look at the EBITDA of the upstream segment this year and a scenario for next year that it is stable. Is it like reasonable? Is it optimistic or pessimistic at this moment?
At this moment, I would assume stable, definitely. So we had this big drop as compared -- 2025 as compared to '24. So if you look longer term, like '26, '25, so it should be more or less -- I would assume this is the most realistic scenario, maybe slightly lower, but generally, not such a significant difference as '24, '25.
Okay. Okay. Understood. And a follow-up on CapEx. You mentioned that this year's CapEx will be like in the lower range, like closer probably to PLN 33 billion. And can you say anything about next year's CapEx? Will it -- is the PLN 33 billion benchmark a good one? Or should we expect higher CapEx because where there were some -- a few delays and I don't know, investments kick in. Can you say anything about this?
Okay. At this stage, I can refer only to our strategic plan. And if you look into the strategic goals, of course, the CapEx is higher than 33%. So I would not assume at this stage that 33% is our benchmark. So please refer to our strategic plan, which is still valid. And -- of course, in the strategic plan, we indicated this M&A as well, which is flexible. So we will be very cautious on that area. But definitely, the range in the strategic plan was higher, as you know.
[indiscernible].
I got 2 questions, if I may. The first question will be a follow-up on refining because you said that you expect lower throughput. Is this because of the -- strictly because of the seasonality? Or do you have like planned turnaround on your plants in fourth quarter? And if so, which installations are you going to turn around?
Basically, this refers to the planned shutdowns. So for example, in Orlen Lietuva, we have vacuum Flesher and this braking shutdown, plant shutdown. So that's why utilization of Orlen Lietuv is going to be below 80%. As regards Czech Republic, we have planned shutdowns as well in the steam cracker. So utilization of Czech Republic, if you assume roughly 85% would be the good assumption.
As regards quartz, we are, of course, trying to achieve as much. It should be close to 100%. However, we have some shutdowns as well. So all in all, probably will be slightly lower than 100%. So if you summarize everything and compared to the third quarter, you can assume slightly lower throughput.
Okay. And second question will be about your Orlen project because I think it was like that you plan to come up with some review of that project in September, maybe lower -- maybe changing something in a budget or in assumptions for that project. Is there anything we should know about this? Or you are going to come up with...
We continue our project.
Yes, yes. Thank you for this question. We continue this project. We have only one item still on the table, which is final agreement with general contractor, CHT. And our goal is at least to conclude this up to the end of this year. However, we'll see how the situation develops. And when we have this final agreement with synchronized all the timetables and created the budget, the final kind of budget allocation and budget update. And once we are ready, we'll go to the market and communicate the full picture of that investment. So we should expect that probably first quarter next year.
It does seem that the last speech [indiscernible] because there are no further questions unless this is for the -- we have a follow-up from Tomasz, good timing.
Yes. Just one on the CapEx. There's quite a lot of investments, especially in the downstream and in energy, which will be completed next year in 2027. And could you give us an estimate what kind of contribution to EBITDA would you expect from those completed investments in 2026 and in 2027, given current macro conditions, not the one which you had when you started those projects, but those that are at this moment.
One minute ago, I was happy that I answered all the questions. However, finally, there is a question I cannot answer. So sorry for that, but those are the numbers we basically don't specify in details. And first of all, let's wait let's wait for these projects to be concluded. Once they are concluded, we look at into the macro environment, and then we may discuss in more detail. So sorry for this. But at this stage, please allow me not to give you any specific numbers.
But in general, do you expect this contribution to be positive? Or you think that there are going to be some projects which will be burning at the beginning?
We believe that all the projects will be positive. However, the question is about the returns. And that's why we book this kind of impairments. Maybe this is the topic we can elaborate. In the third quarter, we booked PLN 1.1 billion impairment of new chemical projects, PLN 0.3 billion on the bottom of the bar in Mažeikiai.
So you can -- this is a clear evidence that those projects are not delivering the return higher than weighted average cost of capital. However, this is not negative projects from the EBITDA point of view because it hasn't been negative from the EBITDA, it's a kind of wise move to just basically close this down, as we know. So you can assume definitely positive and which projects are difficult from the return perspective, you can observe our impairments, which we post.
Now it seems that we left you speeches. So we will be concluding before the market opens. Thanks very much for answering this wake-up call from Orlen today. We may consider doing that going forward to have it before the session kicks off, but we're open for your feedback. Thanks very much for joining us today. If you have a spare hour in half an hour, we're having a press conference, including the CEO, so you can access it online. But for joining us. Thanks very much for your insightful questions, and see you in a quarter unless we see on the road before.
Thank you very much. Thank you Bye-bye.
Thank you very much.
ORLEN — Q2 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good afternoon, everyone. We were holding up a few minutes to make sure that we are already in the afternoon also. Please welcome Mrs. Magdalena Bartos, CFO of the ORLEN Group for the presentation of Q2 financial results of the 2025. You guys who kindly joined us to discuss these results. Together with us in the room is Przemyslaw Wasilewski, Head of Strategic Finance; Marcin Piechota and Konrad Wlodarczyk. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations.
So without further ado, I'll pass on to Magda. Please, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Kuba. I suspect we still have some audience from London. So it still needs to be good afternoon or good morning, depending where you are. I am anyways pleased to have you all on this call for another quarterly presentation. And as previously, we will go through some general information on financials before we dive into detailed segment conversation, and we will conclude with our views on the remainder of the year and some summary on the outlook. But to begin with, I am very pleased to open this presentation on a strong note.
The second quarter of 2025 was indeed a strong one, both financially and operationally and proves our consistent operational excellence across the board in all segments, you will see some strong messages as to our operational performance. Despite the decrease in revenue, speaking about the general financial information, the group's EBITDA reached PLN 9.2 billion, a significant PLN 4.2 billion improvement year-on-year. And as a group, we still operated in a much more challenging macroeconomic environment compared to last year that particularly affected margins realized in our Upstream and Supply segment, Downstream segment, refining and petrochemical margins as well.
On the other hand, these results were supported by a better regulatory environment specifically thanks to the absence of the gas windfall tranche that we still recorded last year. So that is why we consider exceeding PLN 9 billion of EBITDA in a seasonally -- typically seasonally weaker quarter to be a very solid result. And on top of that, we significantly improved our cash flows due to higher operating results, but also lower working capital needs resulting from lower commodity prices.
And at the end of Q2, our net debt still stood at around 0, similar to the end of the first quarter. However, this level will gradually change due to an upcoming dividend payout scheduled for the 1st of September and delivery of our investment road map.
Let's move on to the next page. And here, our key messages that the results -- the satisfactory EBITDA result was driven by strong business performance across all segments, across the board, as I mentioned. And on a year-on-year basis, a significant improvement is seen in the -- was recorded in the Upstream and Supply segment. However, and that's due to the softer regulatory background. However, it is worth emphasizing that each segment, each remaining segment contributed to the result on a large -- on an equally basis to a large extent. And this really speaks out to the strength of diversified business model and resilience to seasonality.
And now let's take a deeper look into operational data, operational KPIs. Comparing that operational data year-on-year, in the upstream and supply segment, gas and crude oil production decreased by 11% and 16%, respectively, and that's primarily to maintenance works performed in Norway that's planned, especially on the Phase 3 Ormen Lange field on a side note here, that work has been completed, delivered is already contributing to results in the third quarter and was completed ahead of schedule and below the budget.
Wholesale gas sales increased due to higher demand from industrial clients and also higher volumes sold in the exchange. In the downstream segment, crude oil throughput increased while refining sales remained at a similar level. Petrochemical sales decreased. And here, we faced even growing product oversupply, specifically massive imports coming from the U.S. and Asia. We'll talk about it more later on.
In the Energy segment, electricity production increased by 27%, and that is largely due to higher renewables capacity. Our renewables capacity by the end of the year will have expanded by another -- sorry, 240 megawatts. Heat production increased by 9%, and that's primarily due to weather, specifically lower temperatures in May and therefore, prolonged heating season. And this also had a significant impact on the gas distribution volumes. Gas distribution volumes grew by 12%, 7% increase and 7% increase in retail gas sales. Retail fuel sales remained at a similar level compared to last year.
And now detailed look or a deeper look into each of our segments. We got a summary of both operational macro and financial information for each of the segments presented. We start with Upstream and supply that delivered very solid performance with PLN 3.4 billion of EBITDA, an increase of PLN 4.3 billion year-on-year. And that's -- and in the second quarter, we were already in the second quarter of this year, we were already free of gas windfall charge. And in the same quarter of last year, windfall charged the P&L was PLN 7.7 billion. That basically explains the difference between the 2 quarters for the Polish Upstream.
In the second -- so a significant factor as well boosting the results in the Upstream and supply segment is the increase in gas quotations, gas prices by over 10%. This was somewhat limited by a 20% drop in crude oil prices and the strengthening of Polish zloty against the U.S. dollar and Norwegian krone. EBITDA generated from oil and gas wholesales trading amounted to almost PLN 400 million compared to the second quarter of last year. Margins on wholesales gas sales deteriorated, the spread increased narrowing, which despite higher sales volumes was the main reason for the decrease in that business line. Now our focus in upstream and supply remains firmly on maximizing value, efficient production and growing sales volumes.
Now moving on to Downstream. Downstream segment EBITDA LIFO was PLN 2.2 billion, down by PLN 0.6 billion. Both the refining and petrochemical business lines have declined, but that is primarily due to a more challenging macroeconomic environment already mentioned. The refining margins with differential deteriorated, decreased by 13% and petrochemical margins by a strong 21%. Unlike the previous year, there were no positive one-offs, no benefit to the results from that. As a reminder, in the second quarter of last year, we received over PLN 400 million compensation for H-Oil unit shutdown. And as mentioned before, in the refining business, we maintained sales volumes -- sales volumes. However, in the petrochemicals business, we recorded a decline, and that is due to oversupply of products coming from the U.S. and China, but also disruptions at Anwil that impacted the availability of petrochemical units.
And the Energy segment coming next. To summarize, we see a story of expansion and efficiency here. Energy segment generated PLN 2.3 billion of EBITDA, up of PLN 0.4 billion year-on-year, and that improved results come from gas and electricity distribution largely. Those were driven by volumes growth, particularly in the gas distribution, we mentioned 12%. There's also a significant positive contribution of conventional energy business that grew by -- primarily due to higher demand from the operator, from the grid operator, while the growing role of the renewables is also worth noting here. In the second quarter, our renewables generated 0.3 terawatt hours more electricity than a year ago.
And Consumers and Products concludes the segment discussion. Consumers and Products segment generated PLN 2 billion of EBITDA, similar to the first quarter of 2025. And that's on a side note, that speaks to counter cyclicality of the 2 components of our consumers and products business and the contribution of fuel and utility businesses in this quarter was almost even. Sales and fuels were similar to those of last year in the second quarter of 2024. We also achieved higher nonfuel margins in all markets and increased profitability in our international operations. The results of retail gas grew significantly on the back of higher market demand that's related to the already mentioned lower temperatures and prolonged heating season, but also higher demand coming from our industrial clients.
Investments. In the first half of 2025, we spent almost PLN 14 billion for investments, which represented roughly 40% of our planned capital expenditure. And given that we expect the acceleration in the project execution, the road map execution in the second half year, we maintain our CapEx forecast of roughly PLN 35 billion, probably the PLN 35 billion being at the top range of our expectation. And the 40% of progress at the end of the second quarter is very typical to the previous year's trajectory of delivering our annual CapEx plans.
And in the next 2 pages, we will focus on financial standing. And in our strategy, you might remember in our strategic discussions, we emphasized the need for a proper approach towards financing of our investment projects and also ongoing operations. And we also identified the need for responsible and effective capital allocation as one of the key pillars of our strategy. And therefore, during the second quarter, we completed our functional financing strategy that targets ensuring financial liquidity, especially taking into account the complexity of our operations and the increasing volatility of environment, but also financing development and value growth of the group, all of which while maintaining financial ratios at the level defined in the strategy.
And let me just briefly remind you that the maximum leverage we expect or allow is probably better to say, is 2.0 of net debt to EBITDA. And as a result of our policy update in the first half of 2025, we managed to complete significant milestones. At the very beginning of the half year, we issued bonds worth of USD 1.25 billion dedicated to the U.S. market. And towards the end of the half year, we issued green Eurobonds worth EUR 600 million specifically dedicated to finance the energy transition.
We have also successfully applied for non-refundable support to finance our hydrogen project development worth close to PLN 1.7 billion and over PLN 1 billion of support for gas smart metering and expansion and modernization of our gas network in Poland. And moreover, we also signed significant loan agreement with European Investment Bank of PLN 3.5 billion and a loan of up to PLN 7.6 billion with the Polish Development Bank as part of the national recovery and resilience plan for our Polish audience.
There is still more to come. We're working on a few very efficient also very exciting projects related to asset-backed loans for development projects, among others, stay tuned. There's more on that coming up in the next quarters. And by doing this, we are building a portfolio of diversified sources of financing. We're strengthening while strengthening also our presence in the financial markets.
And now a bit more on the financials and our current financial standing. In terms of net debt to EBITDA, we mentioned at the beginning, we stand at a very similar level as to the one recorded for the first quarter. To be very precise, our net debt-to-EBITDA covenant was minus 0.08x, so negligible. And this confirms, obviously, a very good position, gives us a very comfortable position ahead of the dividend payout and ahead of the second half year intensification of our strategic road map delivery. At the end of the second quarter, we had PLN 5.5 billion of net cash, and we recorded in the first half PLN 6.8 billion decrease in working capital requirements related to lower commodity prices. In the first half year, we reduced the group's net debt by PLN 12.5 billion and as a result of operational cash flow generation of around PLN 26 billion less the investments realized in the first half year of PLN 13 billion.
And to conclude, our outlook for the year for 2025 as compared to 2024. What is specifically worth mentioning and underlining at this stage is definitely a favorable environment in the refining market. We are seeing the macro environment supporting this part of our business, and we can expect that the refining margins for the year should be at a very similar level to the last year, which is significantly better than what we expected at the beginning of the year.
Regarding the remaining factors, there are no significant changes here. And we -- and as such, we remain comfortable with the current consensus -- analyst consensus for the EBITDA of 2025. And this concludes the presentation. I will now open the floor to your questions, and we will be happy to take your questions in the Q&A session.
Kuba, over to you.
Thank you, Magda. Well, I saw you already jumping in with questions. So as usually, we'll start with first come, first served. So the first one to be served is from Lukasz.
[Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Two questions on update on Venture Global. The first one on the arbitrage case. against Venture Global? And can you give us any update when do you expect any ruling? And can you comment on the recent losing of Shell against Venture Global in its arbitrage? That's the first question.
And the second, how much LNG from Henry quoted on Henry Hub do you expect this year? And how much do you expect next year? Those are the first 2 questions.
Let me first start with Venture Global in the arbitrage case. We indeed saw news coming about the results of Shell arbitrage case. Very difficult for us to comment on that particular case and that particular verdict. Ours is expected or some news from the arbitrage court is expected at the beginning of next year when the first seating should take place. Therefore, I think we will need to simply patiently wait until the beginning of next year to reveal some more information and news about the expected outcomes.
When it comes to the LNG delivery, we started receiving cargoes from Calcasieu Pass. In the first half year, we received 4, if I'm not mistaken. 3? All right. Thank you, Marcin. Well I see that Marcin has got details in front of him. So Marcin, let me pass over to you.
Yes. Thank you very much for this question. In fact, the Venture Global started its shipping at the end of April. And we are expecting the volumes to grow in forthcoming quarters. We are not disclosing our plan for exact volume that we are willing to receive right now. But you have our estimations about -- you have our details about the contract that it is up to 2 billion cubic meters of LNG that may be delivered from Calcasieu Pass per annum. So we expect this to be fulfilled by the venture model.
Okay. But can you perhaps -- if you cannot give us any numbers, imports numbers, but could you please tell us how much percent growth do you expect next year of imports compared to this year?
You mean only coming from Calcasieu Pass, right?
LNG based on Henry Hub, the Cheniere contract too.
Well, in total, we assume that both of the contracts that we have for Henry Hub starting from 2026 will be fully utilized. So therefore, it means almost 2 billion cubic meters coming from Cheniere and 2 additional billion cubic meters coming from Venture Global Calcasieu Pass.
Okay. But you have another 5 billion contract with Venture Global, which was supposed to be coming next year, but that's the reason I'm asking the question. Do you expect anything from this contract?
It depends, of course -- because the second part of the contract Venture Global is from different terminal, it's Plaquemines. And we are cautious about when this contract will start based similarly like in the case of Calcasieu Pass. We need to have the confirmation that it is -- that the terminal will be exporting.
To sum up, we have the contract valid. However, we're cautious on volume confirmation as we have some experience that proved us to be correct in being cautious. That's -- I guess I should be summarizing this. Maybe we can move on to the second person, Tomasz.
This is Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Two questions. The first one is on CapEx. And I'm just wondering what are the odds of you underspending this year versus your budget? And also, when I look at your strategy and see this CapEx figure between PLN 43 billion to PLN 47 billion is the average for '25, '27. I'm just wondering are the right now you have the projects in your pipeline that could next year lift your CapEx figure to this higher level. So this is the first one.
And the second is on working capital. Second quarter was another quarter where you released quite a lot of money from your working capital. So I'm wondering what do you expect for the second half of the year? And if you could tell us more about the drivers of working capital? What was behind the release? I remember you saying last time that you were talking about some actions aiming -- some structural actions aiming at release of cash from working capital. If you could give us an update on that one.
Thank you, Tomasz. Let me start with CapEx and what are the of us under spending on the budget. I mentioned in our CapEx page here that the PLN 35 billion is rather towards the upper range of our expectations, and there are still risks around the delivery, but more around phasing. So it might be that some part of the CapEx -- well, there are simply a lot of moving parts, and it might happen that some parts of our CapEx spend will shift into 2026, but we are pushing forward and our teams are absolutely committed to deliver. We introduced also a more flexible internally tool to reallocate CapEx from the areas that are either being delayed or unsuccessful to areas that can deploy teams to deliver new CapEx initiatives or projects like, for example, in electricity distribution.
So that work is ongoing, and we strive to deliver on the '35. But whether there is a risk of some bits moving into the first quarter of 2026, there still are, and we are actively managing those risks. You also asked about projects going forward in the pipeline for '26, '28 and how it compares to the strategy. Just a quick reminder, the numbers, the figures we see in the strategy include inorganic growth as well. So we include M&A projects, not only investment in assets, i.e., organic growth.
For the investments, I think the typical investments, let's say, I think we've got very good visibility where the priorities are and what new projects will be added into our strategy road map. Those are CCGTs in Gdansk and [ Grudziadz ] and also preparations for the offshore wind farms going forward as additional. We also continue on the projects that you're seeing in our road map today as well.
When it comes to inorganic growth, there is a rich pipeline of projects. You've probably noticed and we're also a little bit looking forward to the next quarters because we haven't completed any significant transaction this year, but the pipeline is rich, and we hope to be able to communicate some good news in the coming quarters. So yes, that target is still in place or is still valid for us.
And then in terms of working capital, the decrease in working capital in the second quarter or in the first half year as we compare here end of quarter 2 versus end of 2024 was driven primarily by lower commodity prices. We do have a pipeline of initiatives that are supposed to support our working capital structurally going forward. But still, the largest impact on our working capital will always be from gas and crude oil specifically prices. And we expect these to -- we don't see any great volatility coming. I think there is a general expectation for the gas prices to remain at the current levels or even more pressure coming on those gas prices.
Crude oil prices recorded a midterm minimum, let's say. And there is no driver that would potentially or no discussed driver that would potentially reverse that trend. However, the volatility has been quite significant this year as well during the second quarter itself, there was great volatility with tariff announcements with OPEC movements related to crude oil production. So a lot going on. We will observe going forward, but we don't expect any significant changes to the commodity prices that would drive some dramatic changes in the working capital needs.
[indiscernible].
So I have 2 questions. There are some headlines discussing that you are considering your options for Energa. Can you please tell us a little bit even briefly what is at stake here? Like there's press articles talking that this subsidiary wants to raise capital and put more projects into operations. There's a number of politicians talking press also what else they want to achieve and you originally, I remember ORLEN announced tender offer for 100%. So can you please tell us what options you could briefly -- you will be briefly discussing with the adviser as the headline suggested you hired one.
And second one, could you please also help us understand where you stand on this Azoty PDH project, whether -- I mean, you -- I think what's the latest if you extended the term sheet or where we are?
Yes. With regards to Energa I think I will need to separate my answer from the public noise and focus on the facts. So the fact is that we've got a significant energy group that -- a significant energy group in Poland that is traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and there are minority shareholders that have expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact that ORLEN has got a majority stake with Energa. We tried tendering for Energa shares in the past that was unsuccessful and we are still ORLEN on its corporate balance sheet finances the development plan of Energa and all the major investment projects. And we obviously need to find the best way going forward to deliver on our strategy objectives in terms of energy segment and to support producing returns to our shareholders.
So we ask a reputable advisory firms to propose solutions that we would potentially implement going forward. The reason for hiring an adviser here is that we simply want to have an independent view. We want to analyze any possible option. So even the, if there is an option that is potentially feasible, we want that to be analyzed, put on the table and then together with Energa and Energa stakeholders decide on the future of us and where the synergies are simply to be delivered.
And when it comes to Azoty PDH, you probably have noticed an announcement from Grupa Azoty that we decided not to put a binding offer and not to proceed with the shell transaction. That is indeed true. However, we are still committed to the project, and we see the asset as a high-quality asset. Our interest now that we are exploring is in the logistical assets. There is a significant energy that we can deliver to ORLEN in the port, specifically propane reloading operations. We've got a propane port, smaller port, shallow water port in Swinoujscie that is very close to Polita. We could deliver propane on larger vessels to Polita and then deliver on synergies related to logistical costs.
That is clearly an interesting option that we are discussing with Grupa Azoty that can be combined with the needs of the PDH projects, and that's something we are exploring going forward.
And what's going to happen with the PDH installation? Is it going to start or...
There's enough capacity at the port to serve both furnaces.
Anna Kishmariya, UBS.
I hope you can hear me. Several questions. First will be around the Litvinov outage. If you can provide some color on what is expected there, how fast it can be restarted, et cetera?
And one around your estimates for the gas trading segment results in third quarter. Like if you can provide some color of how are the trading margins looking currently?
Anna, there was an outage in Czech Republic that impacted our Litvinov plant in July. We managed to restart operations in Litvinov, but when restarted to full capacity, we noticed certain disruptions in our steam cracker units. As such, we decided to -- or as a result, we decided to shut down the steam cracker that puts the refinery at minimum capacity. We are currently analyzing the reasons for those disruptions and putting a plan together in order to eliminate and repair the unit. It is definitely a matter of weeks, not days, but there is still no final solution or final plan on the table.
An estimate on gas trading, just a quick reminder, we don't have a gas trading segment. We've got an upstream and supply segment that deals with supplying volumes to the market and other segments. But I mentioned already that we have experienced narrowing spreads for the gas trading that should probably stabilize going forward as the volatility in gas prices is also lower than in the previous years. Therefore, that's probably to be expected. So narrower spreads but stabilized situation.
Ricardo.
Sure. So first question that I have is on the olefin project, how things are going on your side? And should we continue to expect any sort of more visibility and more details by year-end?
And then the second question, it's on -- we've seen those -- some announcements from China and South Korea on petchem, something on refining as well, potential capacity closure. Given how we've been seeing a challenging environment for petchems in Europe, do you think that if we go ahead and see some of those closures that could help your margins? Or do you think it's more of a headline and nothing really changing on the fundamentals?
I think I will start with the comment that for us, petrochemicals production is not really a stand-alone business, it's part of an integrated value chain. So we still benefit from petrochemicals production by increasing throughput at our refineries. And that's a critical comment as compared to other players in the market that are announcing closures and because they don't benefit from the integrated value chain. Whether those closures will support our margins, we surely hope so, and we expect some improvement, but we're also very cautious with those expectations. So none of our plans is internal plans include any optimistic expectation on the cycle trend reverse.
We see structural changes in the market when it comes to feedstock. We see structural changes in the market when it comes to capacities. Demand is also soft in Europe. Therefore, we keep our expectations rather lower and focus on operational efficiency and utilizing the integrated value chain margins.
When it comes to the new olefins projects, we've seen a lot of work done over the past 2 quarters in order to prepare an integrated plan, combining the work to be delivered on the ISBL and OSBL and discussing with our partners about the contractors, but also trading partners. We've delivered on some significant milestones. The next one that we would like to communicate and discuss publicly is an updated budget, which we promised to come back to you with end of September. We might have some struggles as discussions with the contractors are ongoing, but there is a plan to deliver on that promise and present the budget end of September.
Oleg Galbur, please.
I have 2 questions. The first one is regarding the recently announced asset impairments. As those impairments were triggered by the deterioration of macro assumptions for the ongoing project, could you please tell us how would the new macro expectations impact your EBITDA guidance for the downstream segment, specifically for 2027 and more importantly, for 2030, where you guide for PLN 6 billion to PLN 7 billion and PLN 10 billion to PLN 11 billion, respectively.
And the second question is a follow-up on your earlier comments about the petrochemical business. I noticed that the model petchem margin has improved quite significantly in the second quarter versus the first quarter. At the same time, the segment results have improved or the loss has decreased significantly less. So I was wondering, first of all, which level or how do you see evolving the petchem margins in the short term? And second of all, what level of margins would you require in order to bring the petchem business to breakeven, for example, if you have some ideas?
I hope I got your questions correctly because there was some deadline, but I'll start with asset impairments. Let me clarify. We've got -- in our first half year asset impairment, we've got, let's say, 2 groups of impairments. One related to upstream, specifically in the second quarter, Upstream got impaired -- parts of upstream got impaired due to lower realized crude oil prices. It's not really about our expectations. The standard requires us to recalculate when there is a potential impairment indicator and the drop in crude oil price is such an indicator. Therefore, hence, we recalculated our reserves to the current prices and recorded some impairment in upstream.
On the other hand, we also reversed impairment in upstream as due to our ongoing investments in the exploration assets, we are increasing efficiency and that allowed us to reverse some of the previously recorded impairments. The impairments we've got in downstream are not really driven by deteriorating macro environment. We've got 2 large investments, the olefins project and bottom of the barrels of the hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai in Lithuania that simply are in the red. And as we continue delivering on those projects, we are reevaluating the value in use if that's lower than the spend CapEx we simply need to write off the CapEx that we spent during the quarter. So it's not that there is some change in our expectations related to macroeconomic environment. It's more the sense of the past, so to say, that we need to simply deal with on an ongoing basis.
And you also asked about the model petchem margins. Those improved quarter-on-quarter, but still dropped by more than 20% year-on-year. So we are simply in a persisting very difficult macroeconomic environment. Those changes in the petrochemicals model margins are not really due to any movement in the market related to prices or profitability of those, mostly related to feedstock. So with the lower crude oil price, we've got lower naphtha prices and that is part of our petchem margin computation, hence, the increase in the petchem model margin. But the results were indeed in the Q2 weaker than in Q1 because I also mentioned disruptions in the operations. We had blackout in May at our Anwil units, our Anwil plant, and that disrupted operations and volumes produced, hence, a difficult quarter for that business line to manage to navigate through.
May I just ask one confirmation for the first question. So does it mean that you see no need to revise your EBITDA guidance for the Downstream segment for '27 and 2030 as a result of the impairments that we discussed about.
We see no significant change to our strategic assumptions. Hence, of course, we will reevaluate our strategic plans towards the end of the year also financially, but no significant structural change to our expectations for each of the segments.
Michal Koza, Trigon. Please.
Do you hear me well?
Yes.
Okay. So 2 questions from my side. The first one, what is the total size of Gazprom's claims against ORLEN? And how much is it booked in your provisions?
And the second question, how much do you pay for chartering LNG ships in wholesale trading? What was the CapEx amount in this subsegment in upstream and supply in the first half of this year? And could this cost rise and hit EBITDA if imports grow in the coming years? It seems to me that there is no free cash flow in this line in the first half of the year due to high CapEx due to high charters.
I will start with Gazprom, but Marcin, in the meantime, if you could find some more detailed information on the chartering and ships. All right. So Gazprom and the recent arbitrage decision and how it's reflected in our financial statements. The arbitrage decision was to revise gas sales prices to an updated formula. So in essence, we simply acquired gas at lower prices that was the decision of the court in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
We recalculated all of the purchases and came up with a maximum amount of $290 million. And that is recorded as transitional liability and included in our financial statements. We, however, assessed in detail what is the probability of the future economic benefit outflow. We are currently unable due to sanctions and regulations to settle off that liability, and we don't expect that situation to change rapidly. Therefore, we precut several scenarios evaluating the probability of us having the obligation to -- the obligation or actually the possibility to pay because the obligation we have already and we came up with an accrual provision of PLN 217 million.
We will reevaluate that provision each quarter, exactly evaluating what is the possibility of the future economic benefit outflow. There is a bit more to notice here the situation with the settlement to Gazprom is quite complex. There is another at least 2 cases that we expect in the next years relates to a revision of gas sales prices for '21 and '22 as well and one relates to interest payments. Therefore, in order to have the full picture, we will need to conclude on those remaining cases, but the first one is already reflected in the financial statements in our books.
And Marcin, over to you for the ships and shipping.
Yes. Indeed, the CapEx that we have in our plans for the charter of LNG carriers is over 2 billion for 2025. However, we will look into more details in reference to the forthcoming years, how this will look like, and we'll get back to you on the follow-up.
[indiscernible].
I only have one question because you referred to the analyst consensus with respect to EBITDA line. However, I was wondering if you could refer to also the DGTS, right, which is right now, as I'm looking at the Bloomberg terminal is 5.7 for next year. And I was wondering after this first half, we saw the operating cash flow numbers, which is a base for calculations for the calculation of dividend in your case. And you see that there is a risk that the CapEx spend is also going to be lower than you guided. Is that -- does it mean that we could expect even a higher dividend, like a total dividend next year in 2026?
The way to respond to this question or the way I am going to respond to the question is evaluating -- we need to -- when making the dividend decision next year, we will take into consideration operating cash flows and the quality of the operating cash flows. So far, we have been happy with the quality of operating results our segments delivered. Volumes are solid. Macroeconomic environment is difficult or more difficult than it used to be, but the macroeconomic environment in the downstream segment is supporting our business. All in all, good performance in a more stable, however, weaker environment.
Then the next is the financing availability. We've done a lot of work on the financing, secured around PLN 10 billion of preferential or nonrefundable financing. We issued 2 rounds of bonds, one successfully entered the U.S. dollar market and reopened the green financing in euros. We are also working on other asset-backed financing arrangements, as I mentioned. Therefore, as we stand today, it is probably going to be a tick in the box when it comes to availability of financing and the quality of our funding structure.
And then lastly, of course, the CapEx plans and the needs going forward. So far, we've delivered on the plan. There might be some delay here and there. Again, as I said, a lot of moving parts but we see the situation under control. So as we stand today, we are on a journey towards a recommendation -- dividend recommendation that is going to be exactly in line with our dividend policy. So up to 25% of operating cash flows less financing costs. Does that make sense?
Yes. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Now we move on to Gustavo [indiscernible].
Congrats on the strong results. I had just a couple of questions from my side. First of all, I'm trying to think here what are the main drivers that are keeping petrochemical prices at these trough conditions that you mentioned into the second half of the year, if you could elaborate a bit on the macro backdrop and if you have any visibility on the timing of any potential recovery in the industry that could support margins? Yes, that would be my first question.
Margins in our prices in petrochemicals business is a play of supply and demand. And what we're seeing in Europe is softer demand and what we're seeing in Europe is an oversupply, specifically coming from imports. And of course, the situation we discussed with the previous question, so the closures of units in Europe and limiting local supply will, to some extent, soften or not really soften, ease the situation and support the prices. But whether that will be the scale that everyone expects is actually relatively hard to comment.
Again, for us, as I mentioned, while we would love to benefit from an easier softer market -- sorry, not a softer market, but an easier market, we are still benefiting from an integrated value chain and margins realized on both refining and increased throughput. That's how petrochemicals contributes to our results at this stage.
So what would need to happen for the recovery to happen? Either demand significantly improved. Will that happen with the recovery efforts for Ukraine? Will that happen with some decisions of the European Commission and changes in the European industrial landscape? Probably. But none of those, I think, is a quick fits. or limiting supply to the European market. That can happen with some regulatory decisions and legislation, but there is nothing on the kind of quick short-term horizon.
Understood. That is very helpful. My second question would be around -- if you could please give an estimate on the percentage of your EBITDA contribution that is linked to gas prices and oil prices separately. That would be very helpful.
The way we are exposed to those 2 commodities is highest, obviously, in the upstream and supply segment where we produce gas and crude oil. But on the other hand, our business model includes counter cyclicality, as I mentioned, and also some natural hedging because the same gas and crude oil is an input feedstock to production in our downstream segment. So when the prices move either way, we benefit in one segment. And while we record narrower spreads in the other segment. Gas is also input into electricity production and drives electricity prices to some extent. So I think it's a more complex picture than just applying a percentage on EBITDA contribution because there is a contribution on both ways. There is a contribution on realized prices on exploration. And here, Upstream Poland and Upstream Norway are the key pieces of the puzzle, but there is also input towards -- a significant input towards the downstream segment.
Understood. Yes. No, that is very clear. And your gas production, as far as you know, for example, 2026, do you have any estimate of how much your gas production is hedged in -- by prices?
I probably would refrain from detailed discussions on our hedging policy. That's a very sensitive information. So let me leave it this way. If you could connect with the IR team or the IR team will connect following the presentation and see how we can address that question without, again, putting us in a too uncomfortable situation revealing too much about our hedges.
Lastly, I just wanted to ask about that funding needs. You said you had some asset-backed loans that you were still working on. But other than that, should we expect any additional like bilateral loan agreements or more issuances for the rest of this year? Or do you think that your debt funding needs are already addressed as far as 2025?
Gustavo, we think or we work with our funding schedule or funding plan with a much longer horizon than just funding a year. We rather try to match our funding to the milestones and needs of our strategic road map. So it's not really about 2025 here. It's about establishing a portfolio or building a portfolio of tools and instruments that will allow us to fund our strategy in the midterm at least.
Hence, that's exactly why we reentered the -- or that's exactly why we issued bonds this year.
The markets were good and allowed us to deliver on successful transactions. We are working on some asset-backed financing. Some transactions might be ready already this year. But here, we're rather working on proper relationship and making sure that we match the funding needs to the projects because that's done a very specific financing that's not really on -- that's aimed or that's supporting a particular investment project.
So again, there's a lot going on here. What we've delivered, we've already shared with you. We've got some more news coming up, whether the projects will have finalized this year is not really that critical, but it's critical that we've got the right quality of our funding pools, the right liquidity and the right cost.
Maybe a little bit of a comment here. Financing is an ongoing project. I mean we're going to be delivering on those projects constantly and instantly on the various needs because we both require long-term capital for investments, but we also require working capital for ongoing operations. So this is a summary here that we presented and Magda discussed that actually summarizes our approach and therefore, results of this approach that have been delivered over the last 6 months.
And big money likes to be silent unless signed. And most probably, we will align to that going forward. So we are not giving heads up on that too soon. However, we're just listing here what we see as a sensible and substantial strategic delivery, so aligning required cash flows and its maturity to respective business lines or business needs that we have. This is something that is putting a lot of working hours on us and giving us the delivery or us helping delivery of the strategy, let's put it that way.
However, I would like to with that summary, leave the floor to Tamas with the last question and wrap up if you don't have anything against. So Tamas, please?
So 2 quick questions on my side. First, on the upstream. I saw that the second quarter production volume was significantly lower than the first quarter. Was it only due to the maintenance activity? Or were you losing any production? And what is your guidance actually for 2025, '26? That would be my first question.
And second question is a little bit about your distribution network, which basically brought 2/3 of the profit in the energy business. These WACC rates, what you mentioned, are they in line with the low? Or do you see any risk that the regulator may cut them in the future?
In terms of upstream and our volumes, there are 2 factors that can be seen in the second quarter results. One is lower gas production volumes, and that's due to maintenance and to some extent, investment operations as well, specifically the mentioned Ormen gas Phase 3 project. It's an add-on project to an already existing exploration asset. Therefore, we needed to adjust production in order to complete on that investment activity.
When it comes to crude oil, which is a much less impactful part of our upstream production, we obviously see some natural depletion of resources, but that is less of a focus for us. For us, the key focus in upstream is gas supply. And with all of our activities and the quality of the assets that we currently have in our portfolio, we've got positive outlook for the remainder of the year and the next years.
Distribution and return on assets, the WACC we're seeing are the return are the WACC decided by the regulator or approved by the regulator that are being used to remunerate our distribution assets on the regulated asset base. Will that change in the future? Certainly, as part of the tariff review, WACCs are being reviewed as well. But it is in the common interest of both us and other distribution operators distribution grid operators and the regulator to find the right remuneration on the asset base in order to expand and modernize the grid, which is one of the key priorities in terms of the Polish energy transition.
Thank you very much. It's a very active and lively discussion. So thank you for participating. Thank you, Magda. We'll be wrapping up. As mentioned, should you like to have any follow-ups, we will hear for you and see you in a quarter, if not before on the road.
Thank you so much. It was good to have you with us. Take Care.
Financial data from ORLEN
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 285,873 285,873 |
3%
3%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 223,690 223,690 |
3%
3%
78%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 62,183 62,183 |
31%
31%
22%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 23,321 23,321 |
12%
12%
8%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 52,108 52,108 |
27%
27%
18%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 13,951 13,951 |
0%
0%
5%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 38,157 38,157 |
42%
42%
13%
|
|
| Net Profit | 12,444 12,444 |
175%
175%
4%
|
|
In millions PLN.
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Company Profile
ORLEN SA engages in the production and distribution of refining products, electricity, petrochemicals and natural gas. The company specializes in the manufacture, distribution, wholesale and retail sale of refined petrochemical products. The Company’s business is divided into three segments: Refining, including refinery products processing and wholesale, oil productions and sale as well as supporting production; Retail segment, including sales at petrol stations; and Petrochemical segment, including production and wholesale of petrochemicals and production and sale of chemicals. Its product portfolio includes fuel and petrochemical products, as well as oil derivatives, such as petrol, heating oil, aviation fuel and plastics. The company also produces and distributes electricity and thermal energy. The company operates several refineries located in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic and a number of gasoline stations. The company operates Kicking Horse Energy Inc and FX Energy Inc.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | Poland |
| CEO | Ireneusz Fafara |
| Employees | 66,226 |
| Founded | 1999 |
| Website | www.orlen.pl |


