ORLEN Stock

Good morning, everyone. My name is Anna Bockowska. I have the pleasure of welcome -- welcome to the presentation of Orlen Group's consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2026. Today's event today's conference will be delivered by Ireneusz Fafara, Management Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Vice President and CFO. We are very happy to see you all of you who are gathered in the room but also everyone who is listening to us live. Mr. Ireneusz Fafara, President of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer, will now take the floor.

Good morning, everyone. Financial... Results. Consolidated Financial results after the first quarter of 2026, which was an exceptional quarter. Everyone knows what was going on and it was quite dynamic, especially in the last month of the quarter. It gave us a lot of emotional events which we did not expect. Listens to what the most important people in the world had to say about the ORLEN shares. I'm proud to say that this dynamic situation and volatility actually did not affect our performance. We have demonstrated our strength, our resilience, our preparedness for very difficult conditions. And we are happy to say that our investors still trust us and compiled. After we presented our new strategy, we are proud to say that our value went up by 200%, and we are among the fastest-growing companies in the world in the energy sector.

Despite or irrespective of this volatile and difficult environment and despite what happened in the ORLEN shares, we managed to ensure availability of fuels to our customers. We decided that it is a priority in this very challenging period, full availability of all fuels and creating the most favorable conditions to offer the lowest prices possible to our consumers. We started by reducing our retail margin to minimum levels. We also launched practically from the very beginning, promotions, which I'll discuss later. And at the same time, the government at the end of March, published the CPN program, which allowed us to present what we see on screen right now. We have the lowest prices of fuel across the European Union. So together with the market, and following the decisions of the Polish government, we were able to offer such conditions, price conditions to our customers.

Irrespective of this volatile environment, we delivered very robust operational results in which was contributed by all the segments. We are delivering better and better financial results without the support of one-off events such as compensation or the accounting for the PGNiG results. So if we deduct or disregard those one-offs, you will still see that our EBITDA LIFO was the strongest and the record-breaking EBITDA LIFO results in quarter 1. What makes us really happy is that our performance and effectiveness across foreign markets is going up as well. The share of foreign markets and our revenue went up to 32% and the structure of the consumer segment have changed as well. And that foreign markets are contributing very strong to our results especially in Germany markets. The Energy of Tomorrow is a very important program. This program will involve the highest number of Polish suppliers.

This is why we started the Forum of the Suppliers of Tomorrow, and we are showing our investment program for this year and for subsequent years. Our expectations or requirements in relation with the way we can respond to their questions, their suggestions and their feedback. Around 500 suppliers took part in the program and the feedback is positive that this valuable and very helpful program. And this is why we believe that participation of the local content will be more and more important. We are planning to 3 conferences or events and different publish. While we speak about the investment program, we can now move on to the events of quarter 1. Let's start with the Energy segment. CCGTs in Grudziadz, both of them because we have 2. Grudziadz 1 is nearing its completion. And we believe we are sure that still in this year around summertime, the CCGT will be completed and we will have first fire. The second investment in Grudziadz is in the construction phase.

Construction work has started, and we believe that in 2029, it will be completed. We executed or signed the annex with the general contractor Ostroleka, it is expected that it will be launched in 2026, we started first construction work. As far as Siekierki is concerned, the situation is quite challenging. We have applied for the environmental permit. However, it was objected to buy a single environmental we are working on it, and we believe that we will start construction work soon. Baltic Power is our offshore projects. We have 78 foundations already in place. We have 42 out of 76 turbines that were launched, and we believe that the first supply will start in the summer of 2026. As far as Baltic East and Baltic West are concerned, the technical analysis are underway, design work and permitting procedures as well.

We are working on the launch of the Kolobrzeg Port project, and we have reserved the area at Kolobrzeg Port. So for Baltic West, we'll be able to use that 10 million which we secured under the national KPO program on the upgrade of our grid. We have already 1,000 kilometers of new and upgraded networks, and we also added 232 new supplies from renewable energy sources. As far as upstream supply is concerned, we are looking for new sources of hydrocarbons and focus on Norway and Poland in the Norwegian shelf we discovered 2 new field resources of hydrocarbon at Sissel and Frida Kahlo. This will add a lot of resources. We started new drilling work in Poland. We had first LNG supplies to Poland and the last 2 gas carriers were taken over in Korean shipyard.

As far downstream is concerned, there was a major event in Q1, we finalized work in terms of the time line as well for the new chemicals project. This means that we will avoid the penalties and we managed to reduce the budget for this investment by PLN 16 billion while not reducing any of its scope. The HVO project was launched or the operation was actually open, which will allow us to upgrade our production and increase the share of bio components by 300,000 tons per year. Grupa Azoty Polyolefins, we signed a preliminary purchase agreement, and we have a vision of how this will proceed until the completion of work and procedures by all the supervisory bodies, we cannot manage this new asset, but we are getting ready for it, and we believe that we will soon be able to strengthen our petrochemicals product range in order to compete financial of foreign markets. effectively. We opened a new hydrogen station and we also signed a contract with the local municipal transport company, and that means that will be able to decarbonize even more effectively.

Moving on to consumer products. We had record breaking both foreign market and in Poland. The share of German market in our consumer product structure went up very important. We are strengthening our electromobility offering. We increased the availability of e-mobility facilities in Germany, and we using our own facilities by 10%. We started the promotion for fuels in Poland. We launched it in March. It was supposed to be closed in April, but we prolonged it until the end of May and then until the end of the year. We are happy to see a number of customers joining or taking advantage of our both fuel and non-fuel offering. It's very difficult and challenging periods. We decided that the priority will be to ensure full availability of fuels to our customers despite this very difficult market, especially in the first month of the year and difficult supply of hydrocarbons to Poland.

We had to -- we saw that 800 distributors had to be closed, but it was still something that we have overcome. And we also offered ORLEN new products for our customers. In terms of security, we had mild winters, and we did get used to it. We had, unfortunately, a couple of accidents here in terms of the safety of our employees. However, the safety at work indicators are still pretty low. However, we are unhappy to see that downward trend and the fact that we did have a couple of accidents makes us worried. We want to make sure that all our employees are safe at work and they go back home to their families every single day unharmed. We started the recruitment under the program of assistance to the Polish services. We also supported fire services, which extinguished fire in the Lublin region.

We provided coffee and refreshment drinks free of charge as well as the fueling of the vehicles that took part in the fire extinguishing events. Moving on, the decision of the Management Board that we will recommend a record high dividend for 2025. This is not a final decision. You know that very well because we will have the General Shareholders' Meeting that will or may not approve our -- or confirm our recommendation. We want to transfer the success and the solid financial results to our shareholders. This is why we proposed such a high dividend, especially that the rating agencies analyze our performance and gave us quite solid assessments. That will be all from me. Slawomir Jedrzejczyk will take over to discuss our financial performance.

Thank you very much, Ireneusz. Ladies and gentlemen, everyone, I will now focus on the financial standing and financial position at ORLEN. Our revenue came in at nearly PLN 76 billion, which is higher than in previous quarters. It comes from the macro situation, higher prices of our products, but also higher volumes. EBITDA LIFO came in at PLN 14.1 billion, going up by PLN 2.6 billion year-on-year, and this solid result was delivered not only due to very favorable macro situation, but also due to the increasing operating parameters. The Cash flow from operations result at PLN 8.5 billion. This is pretty robust, and we had a certain effect of an increase of our working capital as well as deposits and derivatives. As far as CapEx is concerned, it came in at PLN 4.5 billion. We are gaining pace. We are accelerating our operations. I want to confirm that the investment plan that we adopted and published at the previous earnings call it is still in force.

As far as net debt to EBITDA, we gained the additional PLN 600 million, and we improved our cash position by that amount. As far as our operating parameters, I always say that this slide makes us happy, really happy because it translates into our financial position. This shows that we are able to deliver those basic operating parameters despite the challenging environment. As far as upstream and supply is concerned in terms of hydrocarbon production, it went down a little bit. This is due to both planned and unplanned downtime. The plan for the entire year is to maintain production at the level of 2025. We had a pretty harsh winter, especially in February. It increased the wholesale of net gas. We are also showing a parameter that shows that we are increasing the LNG deliveries from the United States. As you can see on this slide, we're talking about 11 terawatt hours going up by 163%. We have 2 contracts in force, one with Venture Global, the other one is with Cheniere.

And the second contract will be also added and the volume will be visible in 2027. In 2027, we'll have an additional contract with Sempra for 1.5 billion cubic meters per year. So in 2027, we will see the entire picture, the whole picture of our huge contracts with U.S. deliveries. In terms of downstream is concerned, we increased our crude oil throughput by 1%. And also we increased our fuel sales as well as petrochemical sales. As as energy is concerned, the production and sales of energy went up due to the harsh winter. So the same applies to heat production and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution. As you can see, heat production went up by 11% electricity production went by 10% and electricity distribution and nat gas distribution by 6% and 12%, respectively.

We are also showing 0 and low emission capacity share going up by over 4 percentage points, coming in at over 64%. And something that makes us really proud, as Ireneusz said, our situation in Consumer and Products segment, we have very robust results for non-fuel sales. We have very high efficiency here. We managed to improve our breakeven and this allowed us to reduce the share -- the price of fuels by 35 gross per liter. As far as our distribution results are concerned, the situation is pretty positive as well in terms of nat gas sales going up by 11% and electricity sales going up by 14%. Moving on to EBITDA LIFO. We reported an EBITDA LIFO, which was higher than in the first quarter of 2025. For upstream, we reported result, which was lower by PLN 500 million due to lower prices. In terms of downstream, it was comparable to the fourth quarter of 2025. The downstream situation is pretty complicated or challenging.

On the one hand, we have the revaluation effect, but it is partially offset by the currency conversion or currency exchange. and we are not able to catch up with the market and our margins are lower. We did not want to increase prices of our products to drastically. And this is why we had to sell the historic stock at the lower price. In terms of petrochemicals, we reached a breakeven, thanks to higher sales volumes and better exchange rate versus U.S. dollar. In terms of energy, both our large energy components went up. On the one hand, we have conventional energy, higher volumes of sales for both gas and electricity. On the other hand, we also have better results in terms of volumes. which were partially offset by lower margins on distribution and the higher costs set by PSE and gas system. For consumers and products, we reported PLN 1.7 billion, going up year-on-year. We had nonfuel sales increases and stable margins.

The retail margins in Poland were lower than in 2025, as Ireneusz said, in the Czech Republic, Germany and Austrian markets, those margins went up. On the other hand, we had higher sales volumes in the nonfuel segment. Corporate functions, the result is lower than higher than last year, then this tells us that we need to focus on the costs as well as here in this particular segment. In terms of our CapEx, PLN 5.4 billion in the first quarter. Our target for the entire year was upheld, and we are showing our largest CapEx projects that were in progress, especially new chemicals, we want to spend about PLN 6 billion on this particular project, but we have other projects in downstream. We are continuing offshore projects in the Energy segment, the 4 CCGTs we talked about before and also in Consumer Products, we are expanding our fuel station network. We're moving on to discuss cash flow, which is very important because if we generate cash, we are able to deliver the historically largest investment project and also generate historically high dividends.

There are 2 parameters which need to be discussed, especially the working capital at minus PLN 2.9 billion, which is only natural because we need more working capital. So the PLN 3.9 billion meant that we needed to freeze more cash and working capital, while when we stabilize the situation and reduce prices, some of that amount will be reversed. And the second figure that needs to be commented on PLN 3.9 billion for the valuation of deposits and derivatives. I believe that we have the most complicated policy in terms of hedging. We are hedging the prices of crude, gas and refining products as well as CO2 certificates.

In March, we saw a high volatility on the one hand. And on the other hand, we saw a very dynamic situation in the market, and we had to have more deficits at PLN 3.9 billion. This does not mean that this amount will be reported finally in our financial statements. We'll see how the settlement will be handled. But I would like to confirm that this is our standard long-term hedging policy in order to flatten out the volatility. If there is a high volatility, which is favorable, then the hedging transactions act contrary to that trend and the other way around. So this is a very consistent policy that we have had for many, many years and will have it in the years to come. So as a result, PLN 14.1 million for EBITDA LIFO, PLN 8.5 million operating cash flow and PLN 7.5 million for investment cash flows, and this includes leasing. We also had PLN 0.4 million for interest and grants. This means that we had to have higher cash spending. But all in all, we managed to report an increase by PLN 600 million, and this is confirmed by the solid ratings from the agencies.

Moody's gave us A3 with stable outlook and Fitch Ratings gave us BBB+ with stable outlook. This is an external confirmation of our financial strength. As far as our liquidity is concerned, just as in the last quarter, in the quarter before, our financing sources are well diversified. We have credit loans and our currency structure and bonds and our currency structure is adequate to our exposure we have debt in both euro and PN as well as in USD. And what's really important is the average debt maturity, which is 7 years. This shows that we have a very solid liquidity position, and this is why we're able to recommend the PLN 8 per share for a dividend. We are ready to make that payout still in June according to our proposal. The dividend record date is June 25. But obviously, we're waiting for the final approval of that dividend by the General Meeting of Shareholders, which was about to take place on the 9th of June.

We are able to pay out that dividend while still delivering the historically largest investment program for the coming -- for 10 years. The last slide shows us key initiatives for 2026. This was discussed by Ireneusz before. I would like to emphasize very strongly, however, that in terms of our growth, we will deliver our investment program while maintaining cost discipline and very effective management of projects. We are convinced as the Management Board that we have streamlined, finally streamlined our processes that were launched years ago for those old projects. Those projects are now on the right track and the right trajectory, but we will still work on it. We will not rest on our laurels. We want to make sure that our investment programs are delivered as effectively as possible. And the second component I'd like to discuss is our operational excellence, the resilience and agility.

I believe that we have managed in the first quarter, we have managed to be very effective here. and we are able to react effectively to the challenging situation. Our main goal was to ensure the availability of products and fuels as well as gas. It's difficult to make such a huge organization as ORLEN so agile, but we're doing our best to make sure that we are both resilient and agile. And the third component, financing, which is very close to my heart. Our goal is to secure financing to have refinancing as well in order to generate cash to pay out record-breaking dividends on the one hand, but on the other hand, to proceed with ORLEN's largest -- historically largest investment program. So thank you very much for your attention. And rest assured that we will continue to work on it.

Thank you, and thank you for your attention, and see you next time.

Good morning, everyone. Please welcome to the presentation of Q4 of 2025 financial and operating results of Orlen Group. We are sitting here in Warsaw in Orlen headquarters together with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, company's CFO; Konrad Wlodarczyk, IR team; Marcin Piechota, IR team; Daniel Obajtek, Head of Controlling. My name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm heading Investor Relations. We're going to have a presentation that will be followed with the Q&A session.

Without further ado, I will now hand over to Slawomir, please. The floor is yours.

Thank you, Jakub. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It's my pleasure, as always, to present you fourth quarter Orlen financial results. And I will start by saying that it was absolutely a very good quarter for us and the whole year 2025 was very good. So if you look into Slide #2, where we present the main financial indicators, we delivered EBITDA LIFO in the fourth quarter of PLN 12.2 billion and altogether, almost PLN 42 billion for the full '25 year. And I would just add one remark if we assume the same macro conditions for the past years as we were operating in 2025, definitely, that was the record high year for Orlen.

We delivered very robust cash flow from operations, PLN 12.9 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 47.4 billion. We continue our CapEx program, so PLN 11.5 billion in the fourth quarter, altogether PLN 32.6 billion for the full year. And what's very important, our net debt position is very, very strong, namely is negative, meaning cash flow positive of - I mean, cash position of PLN 1.4 billion.

So now let's move to Slide #3, where we present operating parameters. As you know, we operate in Upstream & Supply Downstream, Energy, Consumer & Products. So let's start with Upstream & Supply. The market environment was unfavorable for us, meaning crude oil price and gas price was lower in the fourth quarter as compared to last year. However, we continue production of crude oil and gas at the same level roughly but we increased gas share of 1 percentage point. And what's very important, we increased our sale of gas of 44%. Basically, half of this increase is better volumes on Polish market due to the weather conditions. And the second half is seizing opportunities on German market by our trading branch in Germany. Basically, the spread were favorable. So we took this opportunity to increase the sale.

If we move to Downstream, Downstream environment was favorable. As we know, refining margin and differential altogether almost doubled as compared to last year. Petchem a little bit better. It's, of course, too early to say that the market environment in petchem is going to be better. However, this is a positive signal, I believe. Altogether, we have crude oil throughput of 96% utilization. So it's very good, 100% in our Polish refineries. And this led to increase in the wholesale fuel increase of 5% year-on-year. Slight decrease in petrochemical but this is, as we all know, due to the situation in petchem environment.

As regards Energy, from the market environment perspective, energy prices increased. And what's very important, we increased electricity generation, heat generation and electricity distribution and gas distribution. As you can see, effectively 18%, 2%, 5% and 3%. So those are very good results from energy sector.

As regards Consumer & Products, market environment from the consumption point of view was favorable for us. Basically, consumption increased in gasoline, diesel as well as electricity and gas. So as a result retail gas sales by 4% and retail electricity sales by 8%.

So now let's move to Slide #4, where we present EBITDA delivered by each segment. So this slide absolutely proves and our results in the fourth quarter and the full year '25 proved that we built a very diversified operating model that gives us a resilience in this challenging macro environment. So starting from the fourth quarter, upstream and supply, PLN 4.2 billion. That's lower than last year. However, last year was in much better macro environment with much higher gas prices and crude oil prices. So you may say that this year -- this quarter, fourth quarter this year is a kind of normalized EBITDA.

In Downstream increased by PLN 2.7 billion. So we achieved PLN 3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. This is a result of more volumes, as I described earlier, and better refining margins. In Energy, slight increase of PLN 100 million. That was basically due to the higher distribution EBITDA and the production -- higher production was offset by higher CO2 costs. So as a result, PLN 100 million increase.

As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 1.2 billion delivered in the fourth quarter. This is a kind of normalized level because last year, it was negative PLN 200 million but that was due to worse market environment. And at the same time, there was a one-off like purchase price allocation of -- that decreased the result last year. But what was very important, if we look into the full year, on the right-hand side, Upstream & Supply delivered PLN 16.2 billion, so PLN 2.3 billion less than last year as we described, lower crude oil and gas prices. Downstream increased to PLN 9.5 billion due to refining margins and volumes and Energy increased by PLN 1.6 billion to PLN 12.5 billion and Consumer & Products delivered PLN 6 billion. So altogether, very diversified and really resilient business model.

If we move to Slide #5, when we present cash flow from -- cash flow for 2025, that was absolutely great year for us. We delivered PLN 47.4 billion operating cash flow. You may, of course, say that a few billion Polish zlotys out of -- it was a kind of extra money we generated due to the fact that crude oil prices and gas prices dropped but nonetheless PLN 47.4 billion, and we spent this money for investment programs, PLN 32.5 billion. We paid, as we remember, PLN 6 per share dividend, which was PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we managed to decrease net debt by PLN 8.5 billion. So as I said at the beginning, our net cash position is PLN 1.4 billion at the end of '25. What's very important for us, we keep investment-grade ratings, Moody's A3 stable outlook and Fitch ratings, BBB+ stable outlook.

If you look into Slide #6, we not only generate very good cash flow but of course, we have very strong balance sheet and diversified sources of financing. So we are very positive as regards looking ahead because we know that we have quite significant investment program in place. However, our balance sheet is really strong. We present here diversified sources of financing. So basically, we have credit and loans but we have all different kind of bonds as well, euro, green, euro, U.S. and corporate bonds. And so PLN 25.1 billion gross debt at the end of '25.

If we move to CapEx, Slide #7. So here, we present our realization from '25 as compared to plan '25, and I will start with that. Maintenance was rationalized, I would say, so PLN 400 million less. In upstream and supply, we communicated earlier that we moved 2 gas ships to '26. So that was roughly PLN 1.2 billion, and we stopped some upstream projects in Norway and Poland. So as a result, PLN 2.9 billion less CapEx spent in Upstream. In Downstream, PLN 400 million less. That's basically our investment in Lithuania, hydrocracker that was, you may say, moved to '26 as well. In Energy, we reallocated CapEx from Upstream & Supply and Downstream to Energy partially. So that's why we spent more on solar projects of PLN 0.6 billion and CCGT plants in Grudziadz and Grudziadz of PLN 0.2 billion.

If we look into our plan but this is our basic plan. So of course, subject to any rationalization and reallocation. So in the base case, we plan to spend PLN 36.3 billion. Maintenance, similar level to '25 to '25. of course, safety of our production asset is our key priority. However, this is the area definitely we can focus on as regards rationalization. Upstream, very similar level like '25, so PLN 7.8 billion. So exploration and production projects in Norway, Poland and Canada, we will continue that. In Downstream, PLN 8.9 billion. So this is an increase of PLN 2.3 billion as compared to last year in '25. So in this amount, PLN 8.9 billion, the highest amount, as you can imagine, is [indiscernible]. This is roughly PLN 6.1 billion. This is our base case. And then we have a few projects in downstream business like HVO, HVO in Plock or hydrocracking in Mazeikiai or rapeseed oil pressing plant in Ketrzyn, altogether, this gives roughly PLN 2 billion, PLN 2.1 billion. So you may say that like 5 biggest -- 6 biggest projects contributes to this amount.

And then Energy, as you can see, energy is the highest CapEx in all 4 segments. And this is due to the fact that, as you know, first of all, we put a lot of emphasis on modernization and expanding our gas and electricity network in this regulatory business, PSG and Energa operator and the total CapEx is PLN 6.2 billion. Then we continue for CCGT projects, and this is roughly PLN 2.5 billion. So -- and then if you add on top of this wind and solar, you will end up with the amount of PLN 9.8 billion. As regards Consumer & Products, PLN 900 million, you may say this is evenly spread across 3 priorities we have in place, meaning expansion and modernization of fuel station network expansion of nonfuel retail network and building alternative fuel network E-mobility.

So now let's move to the last slide of my short introduction. This is outlook for '26. Here, we present a few priorities. This is not the complete list, of course, because we are a very large business. So we have a lot of projects and a lot of priorities. However, let me start by saying, and we group those priorities into 3 categories, meaning investment, operations and finance. As regards to investment, of course, our key priority is to continue our growth projects. However, we will put a lot of emphasis on budget discipline and project management excellence. Definitely, we're not in the past years, very good at that. And impairments we are posting is kind of evidence.

Maybe I will say that this quarter, we posted more than PLN 3 billion impairments, PLN 2.2 billion is for new chemicals projects, PLN 0.3 billion is for upstream and PLN 0.5 billion is for retail in Austria. So basically, another quarter with impairments. However, we are aware of that, and we need to focus on this budget discipline to deliver projects on time and within the budget.

The second priority here is, of course, our -- I mean, the biggest investment we have in place, which is new chemicals. I can just confirm that we are in the last phase of the updating integrated schedules and creating final budget and signing the agreement with general contractors. So once this is ready, we'll communicate to the market. This is -- I would not give you a precise date today because this is subject to corporate approvals. However, I can just say that this is top priority. So it should be a question of weeks rather than months. So once we are ready, we will communicate the details.

And what's very important here, we not only continue the CapEx program but step by step, we're commissioning our assets. So '26 should be the year when we complete Baltic Power, the first offshore wind plant. We will complete CCGT in Grudziadz and HVO in Plock. So step-by-step, this huge CapEx program we have will be concluded.

If we move to operations, this is absolutely our priority as well to strengthen our operational excellence to create a resilient and agile business. We are a very large enterprise. So it's difficult to be agile but we try to be as agile as possible. Market environment is very challenging. It's very, very dynamic. So we need to be ready as a company to have, first of all, resilience and this integrated business model proved that we are resilient. And then we need to be agile so that we can navigate in this macro environment in the best possible way.

The second point is here, secured and diversified sources of hydrocarbon supply, meaning crude oil and gas. '26 is going to be the first year without hydrocarbons from Russia. So really, this is our focus. However, I can confirm that we are prepared, secured. We proved this in the past quarters. So we have diversified sources of financing. We have term contracts, spot contracts. So we are absolutely on the safe side here. And then focus on maximum asset utilization, '25, it was a great year for us, 96% utilization in refinery and petchem assets. However, this year, we plan to have this quite big shutdowns maintenance shutdowns in Czechia and in Poland. So you may expect that utilization rate will slightly drop. However, we are doing everything so that we take out of our assets.

Now let's move to finance. Of course, our financing position is very strong. However, we are not just sitting, we are revolving our credit facilities. So one of that is PLN 2 billion. We are in the process of finalization, and we are arranging PLN 2.5 billion using export credit agency facility for new chemicals projects. And what's very important, this is the last point from my side. We are absolutely aware that our impact on macro environment is very limited. So we need to navigate in that environment. So our focus again is on market risk management, very dynamic from the commodity and from the financial standpoint, meaning crude oil, gas prices, products, FX, interest rates, CO2. So all those factors will be taken into consideration, and we react accordingly to the situation.

So that's all from my side, and we are ready to take your questions. Thank you.

Yes. Thank you very much for this quick presentation. As you probably have noticed, we went through one of the best quarters in Orlen history within minutes for the sake of saving the time for you to ask questions.

As usually, please the floor is yours for the questions. I will refer and name you according to the order you raise your hands. So first question is [indiscernible] Bosch.

I've got 2 questions. Congratulations on the very good results. I know it's kind of early but looking forward into 1Q '26 results, how would you describe reaching a similar EBITDA or even higher between PLN 12 billion or PLN 13 billion EBITDA? Do you think it's ambitious, overambitious? Is it realistic given current macro? That's the first question.

And the second question concerns the market consensus EBITDA, the one we see in Bloomberg, it's PLN 37 billion for this year. What is your comment on it?

Thank you for your question. Of course, it's difficult for me to comment the precise numbers because those are confidential information. So please allow me not to deliver you precise answer. I can just give you some kind of my impressions. So we all know what's the macro till the half of February. So basically half of the quarter passed. So we may say that refining margin plus differential dropped to USD 9.7 per barrel. So this is, I would say, normalized level. So I would not expect that this is something extraordinary. Basically, we are rationalizing refining margin and differential. So this is slightly positive as compared to last year. However, very negative as compared to the fourth quarter last year.

From the petchem margin, slight increase as compared to last year and slight increase as compared to the fourth quarter. So petchem slightly better. Crude oil, crude oil higher than fourth quarter, however, lower than the first quarter. So as you know, gas price is lower, Henry Hub spread versus TTF short, as you know. So a lot of factors that impact our performance. So from the consumption point of view, as we all know, the gas consumption is higher, electricity as well. So mixed views, I would say. So I would not give you a precise answer with PLN 13 billion EBITDA is the right assumption. We'll see. We still have 6 weeks to go.

And as regards full year, I will give you a similar answer basically. In the base case, we should assume that macro environment is not going to be as great as '25 as we know. So refining margins rather down. Crude oil, subject to geopolitical tensions, generally mixed views on crude oil. So if from the geopolitical point of view, situation is stable, we may assume crude oil price going down. But if the situation, especially with Iran, current situation with Iran is going to be tense, we may expect crude oil price going up.

Gas prices in the base case, as we all know, rather down, electricity prices rather down. So macro environment in the base case, as I'm saying, we are prepared for being lower than last year. But we are doing everything which is in our hands to improve the operational indicators. And from that perspective, you can be sure that absolutely focused on operational excellence, delivering CapEx on time and within the budget. Of course, we have these shutdowns, refinery shutdowns plant every 4-year shutdown. So utilization rate in our refineries and petchem plants, you should assume slightly lower. So definitely can be more challenging '26 than '25. But we'll do everything possible so that the result is as great as we can.

Next in line, Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citi.

So I have a couple of them. So first of all, can you please explain what is -- because on the chart, I don't quite get the difference between your operating cash flow and your EBITDA because you also pay taxes. There is -- I looked into your like a cash flow statement, there's like a reversal of provisions, which do not find a reflection on the balance sheet when you move from that position. So can you really say what happened, why your cash collection is significantly stronger than EBITDA given the taxes that you pay and so on? Because if you simply deduct the taxation from your clean EBITDA, then we are more than PLN 10 billion above that level. So that's question number one.

And then second follow-up to this one. How should we think about the dividend in light of this operating cash flow? Does this -- your normal dividend policy apply or not?

And the final question from my side is, what kind of implication you see from the ongoing Slovakian, Hungary situation where there is no crude supplies to that refineries? Does it have a positive impact to you? Can you benefit from it? Or what's the effect?

Okay. Thank you so much. As regards to the first question, really, you touched a very important point because I agree with you that in the normalized situation, you may assume that we deliver EBITDA, then we pay tax and this should be operating free cash flow. However, there are always those -- some -- we may call it one-off. However, this is subject to the hydrocarbon basically quotation. So we have changes in working capital. And then we have changes in the provisions in the obligatory reserves because obligatory reserves are included in this other. We have hedge accounting. We have CO2.

So this is really complicated, and we need to deep dive as regards that probably offline because this is not so simple. You said perfectly, if you look into our financial statements, Page #9, which is cash flow from operations, you have a lot of positions here that should be explained. So I can -- at this stage, I can just say that I agree with you that I would not say this is one-off, but this is -- this cash flow in '25 is kind of inflated by decreasing the pricing by this hedge accounting, et cetera. So in the long run, you should expect our cash flow from operations closer to our EBITDA, what we generate. For example, if you look at...

Is there any -- sorry to follow up. Is there any risk of the reversal of this positive one-off? So the kind of a cash flow, let's say, you generate whatever the consensus is PLN 37 billion EBITDA but your operating cash flow for next year is significantly lower. Is there a risk like this? And then how you smooth it out in terms -- in light of your dividend policy because that is linked to operating cash flow line.

Yes. As regards to changes in the working capital and changes in the obligatory reserves, of course, this is subject to the quotations. So if this is going to be reversed, let's see. If in the base case, we assume that those prices are going down, that means that we should we should have extra positive effect of working capital, not negative. As regards to those provisions, I would say that part of this, you may expect some negative but I would not say today definitely what kind of amount we can expect. But definitely, I can repeat again that I treat this cash flow from operations in '25 as kind of inflated a little bit due to the fact of this working capital and one-off items.

But as regards to dividend policy, so as you can imagine, we look carefully into the cash flow statements long run, rather, I mean, long run in a sense, '25 and '26. So dividend policy is valid. I can just confirm as always, that we should pay dividend. And it's too early today to say what's the final recommendation of the Management Board. This is going to be delivered in April once we present the final full year financial statements. But definitely, cash flow is good. So the question of '26 forecast, and we will prepare that and then we'll propose.

And as regards to Slovakia and Hungary as well, as we all know, they try to deliver crude from Mediterranean Sea. So I assume that in the base case, they will manage to deliver this crude and they will operate as they operate. Currently, they use reserves. So at this moment, we don't see a very significant turbulence in the market. And I guess they will manage to cope with that.

[indiscernible]

I have 3 questions, if I may. The first would be about Iran conflict that may happen or may not happen. But my question would be how the like potential escalation of that conflict affect your imports of Saudi crude and Qatari LNG. I mean, in such scenario, with switching to mandatory strategic reserves create any operational challenge for you?

Thank you for the question. Of course, we are observing the situation, how this will definitely affect if something happens crude oil quotations. As I said in my presentation, we create this diversified model. So we have 10 contracts, but our 10 contracts in crude oil is basically 50%. So we have spot contracts. So we are very active on the market. So just in case, I believe we build this competence and we are ready to reallocate from different sources. From the gas point of view, we have, of course, the contract with Qatar but this contract is just 2.7 billion cubic meters. So from the total delivery from us, of course, this is a significant part but not as significant that we cannot replace from other sources. So we build our competence on LNG market.

We know that '26, the next volumes will come from the second Venture Global contract, which is Plaquemines. So I believe the last quarters, the last years prepared us for any turbulence on the market from the crude oil and gas prices, I mean, gas deliver.

Okay. But can you say -- I mean, what was the share of Saudi oil right now in your feedstock? Is it 50%? Did I understand that correctly?

It's less. It's less than I assume like 40%, 40% plus.

Okay. And the second question would be a follow-up on that Venture Global situation. Could you provide us an update on the current status on the dispute regarding the Calcasieu project because recently [indiscernible], the proceedings with Venture Global, I mean, how is it going in your proceeding? I mean, when we can expect any ruling? And what would you expect about that Plaquemines LNG train? Do you expect the same situation as in Calcasieu that you're not going to receive any deliveries for the first part of the sanctioning of that new project?

Thank you so much. I can confirm what we said last quarter because nothing new basically happens in the meantime. So the hearing is expected in the fourth quarter this year. And then you need -- I mean, there is always a time like half a year for final verdict. So we expect the final verdict like in '27, end of first half of '27. So this is a kind of base case scenario. We know that the rulings are different [indiscernible] BP1. So we will see what's going to happen with us. As regards the information from the lawyers, we are fighting for positive outcome, and there is probability that the outcome will be positive. However, let's wait for the final case.

As regards Plaquemines, Venture Global confirmed that probably fourth quarter this year, they will start the first deliveries out of this contract of 5.4 billion cubic meters. So we may assume that in '27, we should have a kind of full deliveries from those 2 Venture Global contracts, PLN 2 billion from Calcasieu pass and 5.4 billion from Plaquemines. And then in '27, we will start 1.3 billion from Sempra. So basically '27, '28 will be the full years of deliveries of LNG from U.S.

And as of now you received the full amount of deliveries from Calcasieu pass or you're waiting for?

Yes, yes. So we started last year, as you know, '25. And this year, you may assume that the whole PLN 2 billion from that contract will be delivered.

Okay. And the third question, if I may, will be on capital allocation because in recent days, your CEO indicated that the updated strategy will include substantial CapEx dedicated to the energy transition still. And in the light of the ETS reform and declining carbon allowance prices, could those plans be adjusted? I mean, how flexible are you like in this area?

Of course, we look into those regulations and they impact us significantly. So still, we don't know what the final outcome is going to be. I would just say that energy transition is something, which is our priority, and this will continue. Our CapEx program was set in the strategy announced last year in January. So we will look carefully into all those projects. We will reallocate amounts if those are necessary. However, today, it's too early to say kind of what kind of rationalization, what kind of reallocation and what kind of final target is going to be placed.

I would just maybe add that in the strategy last year and here in this presentation as regards CapEx for '26, we don't include -- I mean we don't include M&A in '26. In the strategy, there was quite significant part of M&A. And so I believe that this M&A is kind of flexible part of our spending. So this is something we look carefully from the organic CapEx, growth CapEx, I believe in the next 3 years, we are quite done. We reallocated this CapEx properly. However, of course, always rationalization and optimization is in place if feasible.

Anna Kishmariya, UBS.

There is a little bit of a delay. A couple of questions from my side. First, I want to follow up regarding the EBITDA outlook for this year, but more from the new projects that will be on stream, what contribution do you expect? Second, in terms of your CapEx and M&A comments. On the CapEx side, how much do you think could be rationalization for 2026? Like where could you see the scope there? Also, you mentioned HVO in Plock CapEx for the year, though I thought that the project should be already in the starting up mode. So what is left there in terms of the CapEx?

And probably the last one is just a quick clarification check regarding the dividend. I think last year, the recommendation took place already with fourth quarter results in February. Why there is this change in recommendation now in April?

Okay. Thank you so much. So as regards to EBITDA and new projects, please bear in mind that Baltic Power is going to be in place [indiscernible] in the base case in September. So only fourth quarter will be a kind of extra EBITDA delivered. As regards CCGT plant in Grudziadz, we are targeting end of the year. So you should expect EBITDA delivered in '27 from that projects. HVO, yes, we are finalizing is basically close to being operational. So first quarter should be operational. So we don't deliver precise numbers as regards EBITDA contribution for the full year but definitely a few hundred million Polish zlotys should be added here.

As regards CapEx rationalization, this is ongoing task. We don't provide this number yet. However, I believe in our strategic update, this is my personal view, we should have this component of OpEx and CapEx optimization program, and we should deliver a concrete amount we would like to get out of those programs. So I'm not in a position to tell you today.

And as regards dividend, it's difficult for me to comment last year, I was not there. However, I believe during my past experience, I mean, 2008 to 2017, that was for 9 years. So I believe we always delivered dividend together with full financial statement in April. So that was the practice I used to operate. So I believe this is a good practice as well. This is closer to general assembly, and this is -- we know we have more visibility as regards '26. So that's my view.

We'll now turn to Michal Kozak, Trigon.

I have 2 questions, if I may. The first one, could you explain the -- sorry, could you explain the changes in operating cash flow? When we look at provisions amount, you reported some reversal in probably CO2 provisions in the last quarter and huge gain on investing activities these 2 components totaled over PLN 7 billion in the last quarter. Do you think that it's worth reporting economic net debt just like domestic utility companies did 1 year ago probably?

As regards this operating cash, to some extent, I answered some -- I gave some clarifications at the beginning of our call. So I can just repeat what I said there that we have those items we need to -- I mean, we need to investigate it deeply. However, this is more offline discussion. As regards to this investment, are you referring to this line loss on investment activity, which is included in the cash flow from operations statement?

Yes, this is a gain, not loss.

Gain because this is like reversal of impairments because this is impairments we are creating. So I said in the fourth quarter, there was more than PLN 3 billion, so actually PLN 3.4 billion impairment. So that's why this is noncash, we are reversing this. So...

So reversing provisions is connected with CO2 probably, yes.

So If you start -- if you look into our graph, which is EBITDA or EBITDA LIFO, that means this EBITDA LIFO is already excluding impairments. So that's why this line is basically not shown during our waterfall.

Maybe the last question. In your previous strategy, did you assume such a large TGE versus TTF gas price spread, which has doubled year-on-year basis and is having a positive impact on your domestic upstream operations and I in wholesale gas trading, do you believe that this spread should be sustained going forward?

This spread, we know what's the market environment currently as regard Henry Hub and TTF, and in the next few years. I mean again, in the base case based on the all the agencies, we should expect this spread to drop. So this is something that may impact, of course, our EBITDA definitely.

So you expect the spread to drop going forward?

Yes. As compared to '25 to '26, I mean, it's going down and now we will stabilize. If you look into our macro slide, you can see that Henry Hub increased from 57 to 77 and TTF dropped from 196 to 142. So definitely, the spread shortened. But as regards to TGE because you asked about TGE as well and TTF, right? But as regards to TGE, TTF, of course, this is subject to -- I mean, the market is volatile in the weeks like January this year and we are paying basically more for interconnectors. So in the long run, the situation is quite stable.

So the difference between TTF and TGE is basically obligatory reserves we need to keep and the interconnectors of this network we need to pay for. And this is more kind of stable. This is like between TTF or TGE and TGE is like 10%, 11% difference. And in the months like January this year, of course, this widens but you should assume this is absolutely temporary.

We'll now be going back to Piotr Dzieciolowski, who has a follow-up question.

Yes, because there was nobody in the line or a few people I decided to ask a follow-up. Can you please provide us a bit of an update of what are certain M&A processes you've been doing? We've seen the changes in the Grupa Azoty Management Board. How does this impact your acquisition of this polypropylene installation. You haven't succeeded the disposal of the parcel unit to Poczta Polska. And historically, you were talking also a lot about the acquisition of upstream in Norway, infrastructure in LNG. And the reason I ask about all this M&A on a net basis is that it seems that you can't lever up the company quickly enough. And therefore, how would you assess the risk of a possible tax on all the state budget is a little bit in the tight situation. And then if they have a company, we've seen a situation like this in the past, they were really trying to grab a little bit of money here and there. So just wanted to understand how you see the M&A CapEx or the amount, how you -- can you really spend or buy something in a sizable amount going forward? And on these 3 particular cases, like what happened?

Okay. Thank you. So M&A in M&A, we are very cautious, as I always repeat, because this is flexible part of our spending and depending on the situation and our cash flow position. So currently, only gap is on the table. As you know, we extended our offer to purchase Polyolefins in Police of PLN 1.023 billion. So this is something we communicated. This is valid, and this is the only feasible M&A, which is currently in place. However, we are looking, of course, in Upstream segment into any possibilities, nothing concrete on the table. But if you assume that we should increase our production of hydrocarbons, it's not that easy to allocate organic growth so that significantly we can increase our production.

So if we still continue that strategic move, we may consider an M&A. But as I said, may consider, there is nothing concrete. And similarly to our renewables projects, so like wind, solar farms, this is something we are analyzing as well. And if there is a good opportunity, we may allocate some resources in Poland for Polish project as well. So this is from M&A point of view, I believe the situation.

But as regards to your second part of the question, you can imagine that I'm not in a position, it's difficult for me to comment on any possible moves in that area.

Thank you very much. You are all more than welcome to have follow-ups. But now we'll turn to [indiscernible] We can't hear you. Okay. We're having some technical difficulties. So we'll turn to.

We'll come back to [indiscernible] in a minute.

I would like to go further for Michal's question about the supply and upstream segment because I understand looking at TTF gas prices this year should be under the pressure from the prices downgrading. I would like to ask you about forces or your actions that can the segment EBITDA this year, for example, from trading and other perspective. What can we expect this year from the segment besides the lower gas prices? There are any forces that can support the results this year?

Okay. Thank you so much. So when I close my first part of the presentation, I indicated at the last point that market risk management is in spotlight. So of course, we know the forecast, we know the pricing. So we are not sitting and waiting. We are hedging. So any negative impact is not going to have a kind of full 100% in EBITDA because partially, we are hedging this. We don't provide, of course, the details of our hedging policy and our hedge position but this is one area we can work on. Of course, it is a drop in crude oil prices and gas prices from our production assets apart from hedging this very little we can do. So basically, trading, trading and the active trading. This is the answer for the drop in crude oil prices and gas prices in the Upstream segment.

And of course, the second part, as you know, we communicated that once we have LNG from U.S., we don't always deliver this LNG to Europe. We find new markets in Asia. So we delivered to Japan. We delivered LNG ship to Japan, for example, last year. So this is something we are considering as well.

Thank you for your questions. Thank you all for active participation. It seems that the questions and especially the answers were exhaustive enough because we see you that there are no further questions. So thank you very much for the call, for active participation. As you have noticed probably, a little bit turned to your side to give you [ more opportunities ] for active discussion. We'll keep on doing that.

So thank you very much for this participation for the Q4 results. We will see you on the road for the sake of information, we'll be hosting meetings with Polish buy side beginning of March. We will be on the road with international investors starting from the first conference mid-March. And for the time being, we kindly invite you to the press conference call that will be held in already 20 minutes including the CEO of the company, Ireneusz Fafara.

Thank you very much for this call and see you in the Q1 conference call in May.

Welcome again. We are sitting here in Orlen headquarters in a meeting room to discuss Q3 and 9 months of 2025 ending September 30 financial and operating results. We are here in the room with Slawomir Jedrzejczyk, Group CFO; Daniel Obajtek; and my name is Jakub Frejlich, I'm Head of Investor Relations. Please don't -- please mind that we're doing it old school without video. So this is normal [indiscernible] function or technical problem. We would like to keep it that way for the time being and maybe further. So we will kick off. We're still having some joiners coming in. But since this is 5 past already, we'll be kicking off. And now I'll hand over to Slawomir, please.

Thank you, Jakub. So good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me start only by saying it's good to be back. Warm welcome to everyone. It's my pleasure and privilege to present Orlen quarterly results. I would like to start with the highlights. First of all, macro environment and mixed views on that. First of all, lower oil and gas prices. So as you know, that impacted our upstream business. However, very good refining environment, very high margins. In petrochemicals, still, we see market pressure, both in terms of margins and volumes. Electricity, stable prices. And in terms of retail, fuel retail, we observed lower fuel consumption, especially in diesel. And let's look at operations, and this is very positive news, I believe. We delivered very good results in operations, higher gas production, distribution and sales, higher throughput and wholesale fuel sales.

However, lower sales in petrochemical, as I said, higher electricity production and higher nonfuel sales in retail. So as a result, if we look into the financials, we delivered very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion, very high cash flow from operations altogether for the first 9 months of 2025, PLN 34.4 billion. And we managed to continue our CapEx program. Altogether, we spent PLN 21.1 billion for the first 3 quarters, and we paid record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So as a result, we managed to decrease our debt level by PLN 6 billion in 2025. So now let's move to Slide #4, which is highlights, financial results highlights. As you can see, revenue dropped to PLN 61 billion in the third quarter. However, that was due to the fact that oil and gas prices were lower. Then very solid EBITDA, close to PLN 9 billion altogether, close to PLN 30 billion in the first 3 quarters. Very good cash flow from operations, as I said, although in the third quarter, slightly lower than in past quarters due to the fact that we increased our working capital by PLN 2 billion in the third quarter due to the fact that the prices increased and the volume increased. CapEx, we continue our CapEx program.

Our budget was PLN 35 billion. So currently, after 3 quarters, PLN 21.1 billion. I will come back to this in the slide dedicated to CapEx. And as a result, free cash flow close to PLN 1 billion and very, very safe net debt position and net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.14x. So now let's move to EBITDA delivered by segments. As you can see, we delivered good results in all the segments, Upstream and Supply, PLN 3.3 billion; downstream, PLN 2.4 billion; Energy, PLN 2.2 billion and customer and products, PLN 1.6 billion. So altogether, PLN 8.9 billion. And what's very interesting, I believe, is that the bottom is a change year-on-year. So in Upstream, it's minus PLN 3.2 billion, but I would like to pay your attention that basically the results of '24 were, let's say, inflated, PLN 1.8 billion out of this PLN 3.2 billion is basically higher gas prices we achieved in '24 due to the fact that we contracted '24 based on '23 prices, PLN 0.8 billion is basically purchase price allocation that inflated results in '24. So you may say that this drop is, of course, due to the fact that there were lower prices of oil and gas. However, please bear in mind that '24 is not comparable due to those 2 one-offs, let's say. In Downstream, PLN 1.9 billion higher results, which is, I believe, great due to fantastic macro environment in refining from the refining margin point of view. Very solid results in Energy and Consumer Products.

Corporate functions increased by more than PLN 200 million. PLN 100 million is, you may say, phasing and PLN 100 million is due to the fact that we increased our labor and general expenses by a few percentage points year-on-year. Now let's move to Slide #6, where we present our operational results. And this is evidence what I said that from operations, it was a very good quarter. So we increased production and wholesale gas sale in upstream and supply. We slightly increased crude oil throughput and wholesale fuel sale by 1 percentage point. However, you can observe here minus 16% drop in petrochemical, and this is clear evidence that petrochemicals under huge pressure, both from petrochemical margin perspective as well as volumes. In energy, steady growth in almost all areas, gas distribution plus 3%; heat generation, plus 5%; electricity generation, plus 7%. And what's very important, renewables generation increased by 43%. So what I can say is that currently in the electricity generation, renewables constitute 17%. This is 4 percentage point increase as compared to last year. As regards Consumer and Products, very good results in the retail gas and electricity sales. However, we see some pressure on the consumption of fuel in Poland, especially diesel. That's why you can see that our retail fuel sales dropped by 2 percentage points. Now let's move to each segment where we elaborate more.

So let's start with Page #7, Upstream and supply. We managed to produce up to 200,000 BOE per day. Majority of this -- more than half of this is, of course, Norway, but then we have Poland and the remaining amount is Canada and Pakistan. Majority of this is gas production. And if you can see, the result is lower by PLN 3.2 billion. But as I explained, upstream Poland and Upstream International, this negative -- huge negative impact of lower gas and oil prices was to some extent or even a big extent, offset by higher production, both in Poland and Norway. And this PLN 2.8 billion, as I explained before, basically, this is lower realized gas sale price. So you may treat it as a kind of one-off from '24 and negative impact of the settlement of PPA, this is PLN 0.8 billion again from 2024. So now let's move to Downstream. And definitely, high refining margins help us a lot. So in the third quarter, that was almost doubling USD 15.2 per barrel. However, petrochemical margin is under pressure, 16% drop to PLN 168 per ton, but was very good. I believe crude oil production improved by 1%. So utilization of our Polish operations was basically 100%, whereas Lithuania, 94%. And in Czech Republic, that was lower utilization, 75% due to plant and unplanned shutdowns.

So there was a failure in Litvinov. So that's why we produced less petrochemical products. So as you can see on this slide, petrochemical is minus PLN 92 million contribution to EBITDA LIFO. However, if it hasn't been for Litvínov failure, I believe that would be a kind of slight plus in the petrochemical business as well. However, we all know that we are looking at downstream business from the whole value chain perspective. So of course, great refining is offset by weak petrochemical business. However, altogether, I believe Downstream delivered very solid results of PLN 2.4 billion. Now let's move to Energy. The biggest improvement, higher result by PLN 500 million basically and the biggest improvement is in distribution networks of PLN 318 million, and that was basically due to increase in gas distribution volumes and higher gas and electricity distribution tariffs. In all other areas, as you can see, heating, conventional energy, new energy and electricity trading, we delivered positive results as well. Now let's move to Consumer & Products. Very stable result in retail, fuel and shops. And we see some pressure on the consumption and on the volumes. That's why it was a slight -- slight drop in this -- in that area. However, we managed to regain that drop from the nonfuel sale. We continued our promotions during summer period. So that decreased the margins.

However, we managed to regain that from the nonfuel sale. And this increase of PLN 300 million is basically retail electricity and gas. But please bear in mind that part of this increase was again a kind of one-off from '24 that was positive impact of the settlement of PPA, roughly PLN 100 million, so slightly inflated the results. Altogether, PLN 1.6 billion EBITDA, very good result in Consumer Products. Now let's move to CapEx. So you can see the split of CapEx, our budgeted CapEx for '25, PLN 35 billion, and that's almost evenly spread across upstream supply, downstream and energy. However, in the past quarters, we indicated that our CapEx program is roughly between PLN 33 billion and PLN 35 billion. So looking at utilization of CapEx -- realization of CapEx for the first 3 quarters, probably we may expect to be at the closer to the lower end of this range. However, we'll see how this develops in the fourth quarter. Of course, we continue our projects in upstream and supply to increase our production according to our strategic goals. In downstream, of course, we have 3 areas of projects. One is enlarging value chain, which is new chemical project. Then we improve our product slate, and this is the construction of, for example, hydrocracking unit in Mažeikiai or hydrocracking oil block in Gdansk.

And of course, we are doing projects that create biocomponents, second-generation bioethanol like [indiscernible] bioethanol in Jedlicze. In energy, of course, we all know that energy transformation is not only renewable energy, but we need to absolutely enlarge and modernize distribution network. So that's why you can see expansion and modernization of power grid and gas distribution network. And our key projects in the renewables energy is, of course, Baltic Sea. So we continue this project, and we target in the second half of 2026 to have this farm fully operational. We continue as well our CCGT project and Ostroleka and Grudziadz second half of '26 should be operational. And of course, we started the new projects like CCGT, Gron, the second plant and in Gdansk. As regards Consumer and Products, we expand and modernize and rebrand our fuel network stations, and we build alternative fuel stations network. So this is ongoing tasks, and we allocate sufficient CapEx for that project. So now let's move to our liquidity position. On Slide #12, we present the waterfall. So we generated -- or we delivered PLN 34.4 million operational cash flow. That was, of course, inflated by a working capital decrease, PLN 4.8 billion altogether for the first 3 quarters. However, the first quarter itself was a kind of minus PLN 2 billion. So we observed this effect of increasing oil and gas prices and volumes increase.

So we spent investment cash flow PLN 21.9 billion. That includes our leasing cash out and managed to pay a record high dividend of PLN 7 billion. So altogether, we decreased our debt by PLN 6 billion. So we are in a very good financial position for the next years to come. We all know that we have quite significant CapEx program for the next 3 years. So this safe debt position is very helpful. Maturity, this is very important as well. Average maturity. We have like 2022 and '23, so like 7 years -- 6, 7 years of average maturity. So to finalize outlook, which is probably the most interesting slide in my presentation because here, we present how we see the macro environment and our operations. So we believe that we see fourth quarter so far, at least '25 as compared to third quarter '25 positive in upstream -- positively in Upstream and Energy segments, more or less stable in downstream and lower due to seasonality in customer and products. If we deep dive a little bit in all the segments. So in Upstream and supply, higher production because we don't have any significant maintenance works. We expect higher gas prices due to seasonality and higher sales volumes as well. However, lower oil prices that can, of course, impact the upstream business as well.

But altogether, we believe it can be, at least, as I said, so far, good quarter for us. From the energy point of view, again, seasonality, so higher production sales and distribution, higher heat production, higher electricity quotations and higher gas prices may affect slightly negatively, of course, in Energy segment, however, altogether, positive as well. And mixed views in downstream, of course, refining is absolutely great, as we know. So this continues to be great. However, we may expect a little bit lower throughput, lower fuel wholesale volumes due to seasonality and of course, challenging environment in petrochemical business. So that's why, all in all, probably a kind of stable situation is the most probable outcome in downstream. And Consumer & Products, due to seasonality, we expect lower fuel sale and energy and gas negative as well. Of course, higher gas sales volumes, but we expect a negative impact of electricity tariff reduction and maintained frozen prices for household. So that concludes my presentation. So we are ready now for Q&A. So Jakub?

Yes. Thank you very much. As usual, I would like to take your questions by saying who raised their hand first. And surprisingly, but not so much to ourselves. It's Anna from UBS, who's going to be asking the first question. Please go ahead. Anna, we can't hear you.

Can you hear me now?

First will be around the wholesale margin in the refining. Can you please provide more details around what is the dynamic there? Because it looks like given how strong the refining margins currently are, it should be a very good support for the downstream segment in fourth quarter? And my second question will be around Azoty Polymers, if you can provide any color around when can we expect any updates for the deal?

Thank you for your questions. As regards to the first one, we have Slide #17, where we present the kind of the most current macro situation in the fourth quarter. As you can see, model refining margin is absolutely extraordinary. This is 18. per barrel. We all know the macro environment, I believe. So I'm not going to elaborate much on that.

This is definitely due to shortage of supply and basically the situation in Russia or the war in Ukraine. So this continue to be like that. Of course, in our base case scenario for the next quarters to come, we don't assume such a high refining margin. This is definitely extraordinary from our perspective. As regards the polymers projects, I can only confirm what is officially published. That means that we put on our offer of 1 billion cash-free debt-free and our offer is valid officially till the end of this year. So we are waiting still for the response of Grupa Azoty. So no progress official progress at least from what we are hearing in that area. Hopefully, this will develop in a positive way, but it's too early to conclude.

But regarding the wholesale refining margins, which you mentioned are a bit on the lower side. What's driving that?

You mean this model refining margin, as I explained.

No, no, no. Like in the comments for the downstream segment, for example, one of the reasons you mentioned like lower wholesale margin. So can you please clarify there, what does it mean?

Yes. This is more or less like inland premium we generate, and this is due to seasonality and lower consumption. So that's why this is our indication that in the wholesale business, the margins can be slightly lower. So this is basically the explanation.

And do you see those getting worse in fourth quarter or it will be stable?

Sorry? Please say it again?

Comparing in fourth quarter to third quarter, do you expect it to worsen further? Or will it be stable?

You mean fourth quarter?

Third quarter versus third quarter.

We expect to be slightly lower, of course, as we indicated here, lower wholesale margins in refining. But slightly lower due to seasonality, basically. So this is not going to be a significant impact, I guess, as positive impact of model refining margin, definitely.

Tomasz Krukowski. Santander.

We can't hear you.

I think you can hear me now.

Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Three questions. The first one is specifically to Mr. Andre. And actually, I would like to hear your view on the dividend policy of the company. The company has a dividend policy. We are aware of that. But I'm wondering whether do you fully support this policy or you would like to introduce some changes to it. So this is the first one. The second is on the Energa situation. If you could give us some color in direction the analysis which you are performing is going? And the third one is on the refining. You already mentioned that you do not expect the refining macro to be so strong going forward. But actually, what is your reading of the situation right now? I mean, do you see any kind of lack of the product on the market, which is driving the prices? How is the situation with the Russian imports? What's your take on this?

Thank you so much. As regards dividend policy, of course, we have official dividend policy, which was approved by the Management Board and Supervisory Board. So definitely still valid. And I'm in a position individually to change it, of course. I can give you just my comment on dividend, and I express those comments all the time.

I was CFO in Orlen a few years ago. basically, my view is that the best dividend policy is basically to prove to the market that we are a dividend-paying company and consistently each year to pay slightly higher dividend. So if there is no extraordinary situation, my personal view is that Orlen absolutely should be a dividend-paying company, and we try to pay slightly higher each year, which was included in the strategy of Orlen from '25. And the second point, Energa, my comment on Energa is as follows. We have 4 segments, as we know, and we are much bigger due to those acquisitions we did a few years ago. So now absolutely, we should focus on creating a very efficient 4 business lines. And we are working on this efficiency in all the segments, so not only Energy segment, but as well in upstream and supply and customer and product. So this is the task which is ahead of us. We should create as agile and as flexible organization as we can. Of course, we are very, very complicated business, but we should be, as I said, as agile and flexible because macro environment can be challenging, can be dynamic. So that's why we are focusing to create in energy as well a very solid business line.

However, no formal final decisions have been made so far. So it's difficult for me to comment at this stage apart from all official information we put is going to happen with Energa. As regards to refining margin, so I believe I said that this is basically perception of the market and the shortage of fuels, which is due to the fact that some installations in Russia were attacked by Ukraine. So basically, there's a shortage of fuel, and this is basically the -- we don't expect the situation continue in a sense that it would be absolutely unwise to create base case scenario based on this margin. So that's why I said that in our base case scenario for the next year and for the next years, of course, we don't assume double-digit refining margins so that we are a little bit conservative, let's say, looking into the current situation. And it's better to be conservative, I believe, in this area than to create a business plan and then CapEx and cash out based on the huge refining margin. So that's my comment on that.

And actually, do you see the lack of the product on the market? Do you have the clients calling you and saying, giving more diesel or sending more diesel?

As regards our markets, no, we don't see a shortage. So from our perspective, absolutely, we are fully full of products.

[indiscernible].

Okay. So the first question, again, about dividend policy. Will the payout still be based on operating cash flow rather than free cash flow?

So as I said the policy. And of course, unless we change it, we are going to follow it. So as regards to dividend policy, this is, as you know, up to 25% operational free cash flow minus interest, but this is up to.

So each time each time, as you can imagine, we look before we give the final recommendation as regards to dividend payout, we look into current financial situation, current financial sting. And of course, we will propose this dividend in the second quarter of next year, probably. So we have still 2 quarters to go. So we will see how the market develops, how our cash flow look like, how our CapEx programs continue, and then we'll make the final decision. But yes, this is our...

Okay. So you don't assume any changes in dividend policy?

Unless we update our strategy and we change.

Okay. The second question from my side. isn't your approach too conservative when you look at downstream segment for the fourth quarter, assuming current $25 a barrel refining margin?

Of course, this is our perception. Maybe that's my view. It's better to be slightly less conservative than more optimistic. However, this is our assumption based on 6 weeks of the fourth quarter. So still, we have 6 weeks to go, and anything can happen. So this is our impression so far. And if you look purely from the refining margin, model refining margin perspective, which is more than PLN 18 billion -- USD 18 per barrel.

So this is absolutely great. However, we have some challenges, as you know, in petrochemical business. Petrochemical margin is lower than the third quarter. Of course, our volumes should be slightly higher. We still don't know from the operations point of view, how our assets will operate. So that's why we are more cautious on that. That's why we present more or less stable situation. So stable situation means small pluses, small minuses, and we'll see. We'll see how the fourth quarter.

We don't have follow-ups, please, Ricardo [indiscernible].

Can you hear me?

Yes.

A couple of questions on my side, if I may. The first one is on the CapEx. You mentioned that you're probably going to be at the lower end of the guidance of PLN 33 billion for this year. Can we assume that those -- that the PLN 2 billion would be spent next year?

Or do you expect some CapEx savings and you might not have to disburse those PLN 2 billion? And then the second one is on the Consumer Products segment. You're talking about some of the margin pressures because of promos during the summer, just how the market is in Poland now. Do you still see some pressures there and you're still doing -- having to do some promos? And when should we expect margins to stabilize or even see some inflection on the margin side?

Thank you so much. So as regards CapEx, -- if you assume that we have the budget of PLN 35 million, and I said that the range was PLN 33 million, 35 million. So basically, there are 2 items -- 2 big items that affects lower CapEx utilization. First one is CapEx spend on gas ships. Probably we explained that, that in the base case CapEx, we assumed 4 ships to be delivered. However, this year, only 2 will be delivered and the next 2 will be delivered next year. So that's why out of PLN 2.4 billion CapEx, PLN 1.2 billion will be booked this year and PLN 1.2 billion will be booked next year. So this is a kind of movement to next year.

And second billion, we explained probably as far as my colleague told me, it was first quarter upstream, upstream projects. So we decided to just not to continue with one of the projects. That's why we decreased the CapEx plan for upstream. So it's difficult for me to say whether this is postponed or not, but because in Upstream, of course, we have our plan to deliver more production in the next years to come. So definitely, in Upstream, we'll prepare the CapEx for '26, which is appropriate to the targets we initiated in our strategy. So this is as regards CapEx. As regards Consumer & Products, I would say the margins are stable, and this is a kind of market time to time, we create promotions. If we create promotions, basically, we create promotions and to decrease the margins or to decrease the sales prices. And as a result, the margin slightly decreases. However, our goal is to regain this in nonfuel sale. We have more customers enrolling to our VITAY program as a result, so loyalty program. So definitely, we are going to continue with that.

And if I may follow up on the upstream. On the strategy update, you had mentioned that you were looking at potential M&As in North America and the North Sea as well to increase your upstream production. Is there any updates on that front?

I can give you a little bit kind of my personal view and the corporate view as well. Basically, we have quite significant CapEx for the next years, 3 years to come. Our flexibility in this CapEx is not very significant as we know. And in our strategy, we indicated that we have CapEx, basic CapEx and options for M&A. And this M&A -- in M&A, definitely, we have flexibility. So that's why I'm very cautious as regards putting any meaningful targets in M&A. We need to look into our cash flow position. We need to look into the macro environment development, and then we'll decide how much money we have -- we can allocate for M&A projects. So at this stage, I can confirm there are no meaningful projects on the table as regards upstream in U.S.

[indiscernible].

I got a question on your Upstream and Supply segment. First of all, can you tell us what kind of production dynamics do you expect next year? I think you mentioned that you plan to upgrade production in the next years. And the second question, can you tell us anything on your gas wholesale margins going forward? When I look at your gas contracts signed for next year, I see very big spreads. And can you comment on it?

So as regards to the gas production, we are in the process of budgeting for '26. So I will not give you at this stage a kind of precise number, of course. And I can confirm what's in the strategy we put as far as I remember, the number of PLN 6 billion production from Norway, like PLN 4 billion from Polish operations. So this is a kind of target for 2030. So step by step, we are going to increase this number.

As regards TO the -- can you be more specific as regards to the wholesale margin? You mean wholesale in Poland or wholesale from the kind of U.S. contracts. And...

What I mean is the gas margins in Poland, the margins which you book in the upstream and supply segment. So what I mean is the contract signed on TGE, yes, compared to 1 month TTF?

Of course, we should look into development of gas prices, of course. And you are perfectly right in a sense that I explained a little bit this positive impact in '24. So '23 gas prices were very high. We booked at the high level, then prices dropped. So as a result, we managed to deliver roughly PLN 1.8 billion extra money. As regards to development of gas prices, of course, this is a big question, what kind of development we will see in the 2026. So at this stage, we don't provide a kind of full visibility on our goals. But generally, is going to be more stable than it used to be in the previous year. So I would not assume a very significant differences year-on-year on that.

Okay. So if you look at the EBITDA of the upstream segment this year and a scenario for next year that it is stable. Is it like reasonable? Is it optimistic or pessimistic at this moment?

At this moment, I would assume stable, definitely. So we had this big drop as compared -- 2025 as compared to '24. So if you look longer term, like '26, '25, so it should be more or less -- I would assume this is the most realistic scenario, maybe slightly lower, but generally, not such a significant difference as '24, '25.

Okay. Okay. Understood. And a follow-up on CapEx. You mentioned that this year's CapEx will be like in the lower range, like closer probably to PLN 33 billion. And can you say anything about next year's CapEx? Will it -- is the PLN 33 billion benchmark a good one? Or should we expect higher CapEx because where there were some -- a few delays and I don't know, investments kick in. Can you say anything about this?

Okay. At this stage, I can refer only to our strategic plan. And if you look into the strategic goals, of course, the CapEx is higher than 33%. So I would not assume at this stage that 33% is our benchmark. So please refer to our strategic plan, which is still valid. And -- of course, in the strategic plan, we indicated this M&A as well, which is flexible. So we will be very cautious on that area. But definitely, the range in the strategic plan was higher, as you know.

[indiscernible].

I got 2 questions, if I may. The first question will be a follow-up on refining because you said that you expect lower throughput. Is this because of the -- strictly because of the seasonality? Or do you have like planned turnaround on your plants in fourth quarter? And if so, which installations are you going to turn around?

Basically, this refers to the planned shutdowns. So for example, in Orlen Lietuva, we have vacuum Flesher and this braking shutdown, plant shutdown. So that's why utilization of Orlen Lietuv is going to be below 80%. As regards Czech Republic, we have planned shutdowns as well in the steam cracker. So utilization of Czech Republic, if you assume roughly 85% would be the good assumption.

As regards quartz, we are, of course, trying to achieve as much. It should be close to 100%. However, we have some shutdowns as well. So all in all, probably will be slightly lower than 100%. So if you summarize everything and compared to the third quarter, you can assume slightly lower throughput.

Okay. And second question will be about your Orlen project because I think it was like that you plan to come up with some review of that project in September, maybe lower -- maybe changing something in a budget or in assumptions for that project. Is there anything we should know about this? Or you are going to come up with...

We continue our project.

Yes, yes. Thank you for this question. We continue this project. We have only one item still on the table, which is final agreement with general contractor, CHT. And our goal is at least to conclude this up to the end of this year. However, we'll see how the situation develops. And when we have this final agreement with synchronized all the timetables and created the budget, the final kind of budget allocation and budget update. And once we are ready, we'll go to the market and communicate the full picture of that investment. So we should expect that probably first quarter next year.

It does seem that the last speech [indiscernible] because there are no further questions unless this is for the -- we have a follow-up from Tomasz, good timing.

Yes. Just one on the CapEx. There's quite a lot of investments, especially in the downstream and in energy, which will be completed next year in 2027. And could you give us an estimate what kind of contribution to EBITDA would you expect from those completed investments in 2026 and in 2027, given current macro conditions, not the one which you had when you started those projects, but those that are at this moment.

One minute ago, I was happy that I answered all the questions. However, finally, there is a question I cannot answer. So sorry for that, but those are the numbers we basically don't specify in details. And first of all, let's wait let's wait for these projects to be concluded. Once they are concluded, we look at into the macro environment, and then we may discuss in more detail. So sorry for this. But at this stage, please allow me not to give you any specific numbers.

But in general, do you expect this contribution to be positive? Or you think that there are going to be some projects which will be burning at the beginning?

We believe that all the projects will be positive. However, the question is about the returns. And that's why we book this kind of impairments. Maybe this is the topic we can elaborate. In the third quarter, we booked PLN 1.1 billion impairment of new chemical projects, PLN 0.3 billion on the bottom of the bar in Mažeikiai.

So you can -- this is a clear evidence that those projects are not delivering the return higher than weighted average cost of capital. However, this is not negative projects from the EBITDA point of view because it hasn't been negative from the EBITDA, it's a kind of wise move to just basically close this down, as we know. So you can assume definitely positive and which projects are difficult from the return perspective, you can observe our impairments, which we post.

Now it seems that we left you speeches. So we will be concluding before the market opens. Thanks very much for answering this wake-up call from Orlen today. We may consider doing that going forward to have it before the session kicks off, but we're open for your feedback. Thanks very much for joining us today. If you have a spare hour in half an hour, we're having a press conference, including the CEO, so you can access it online. But for joining us. Thanks very much for your insightful questions, and see you in a quarter unless we see on the road before.

Thank you very much. Thank you Bye-bye.

Thank you very much.