Tryg Stock

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Financial Reporting at Tryg. We published our Q3 figures earlier this morning. And I have here with me, Johan Brammer, our Group CEO; Allan Thaysen, our Group CFO; and Mikael Karrsten, our Group CTO, to present the numbers. With these few words, over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Gian, and a very good morning from me as well. So earlier this morning, we published our Q3 results, and I'll begin by commenting on the financial highlights, as I always do. So revenue growth was 4.1% in DKK and 2.3% in local currencies. As we've experienced in the previous quarters, the growth was higher in the private segment, close to the 4% mark, while we did experience a slight top line fall in the commercial segment. Our outlook for approximately 3% revenue growth for the full year of 2026 remains unchanged as does our ambition to show an improved revenue growth as we move into next year 2027.

I'll get back to this later on in this presentation. The insurance service result of DKK 2.454 billion was driven by an excellent combined ratio of 76.8%. This performance stems from a strong performance across the board with also the large and weather claims experience being below normalized expectations. As for the underlying claims ratio, it improved by 60 bps in the quarter against 50 bps last quarter. The improvement was higher in the private segment and slightly lower in the commercial segment.

As for the overall investment result, it was DKK 42 million. The free portfolio delivered a slightly negative mark-to-market return as increased interest rates weighed on the fixed income portfolio, whereas the match portfolio was very positive. In general, we are satisfied with the investment performance considering the volatility in the quarter and our chosen asset mix.

Additionally, and as we already flagged in Q2, we've been selling properties further down, and we now report an exposure of DKK 1.9 billion against the DKK 3.3 billion when we announced our derisking strategy. And finally, we are reporting an operating EPS of DKK 2.96 and a return on own funds of 47%. The solvency ratio at the end of the quarter was a very robust 203%, supportive of future capital repatriations.

We're now turning to the next slide on customer satisfaction. And the customer satisfaction score was record high at 83% for the second quarter in a row and already now in line with our 2027 target. Amongst many things, we have developed an AI assistant called Nora that assists our claims handlers in the processing of complex documents. This allows them to quickly identify all relevant information and in turn provide a better and more swift customer service, and this drives customer satisfaction in the right direction.

And in addition, I'd like to mention that Tryg during the quarter also processed around 220,000 claims through STP, Straight-Through Processing, which reduces wait time for customers and improve the overall customer experience. So good news on the customer highlights. And with that, let's move to the next slide, where I'll comment on the insurance service results split between our 2 main segments, private and commercial. So the insurance service result in the private segment was just shy of DKK 1.6 billion, driven by a combined ratio of 78.3%, good top line growth and improved underlying performance as well as higher runoff, which also helped the numbers.

The insurance service result in the commercial segment was DKK 866 million, driven by a very strong combined ratio of 73.5%. A lower runoff result for the quarter weighs negatively, of course, but is offset by an improved underlying performance and also lower-than-normal weather and large claims. With that, I'm turning to the next slide, where I'll comment on the insurance service result by geography and the ISR walk as you see it on the right-hand side.

And as always, I'll repeat that the reported ISR and combined ratio can be impacted by different factors such as large and weather claims, runoff results and, of course, the overall level of interest rates. In Q3, we note a strong performance across the board. I'm particularly pleased to see the best reported combined ratio in the last 10 years in Norway and a Swedish performance that remains stellar, while the Danish combined ratio remains solid, although impacted by a lower runoff result and a flattish revenue development.

The ISR walk of Q3 versus last year, the chart you see on the right-hand side shows a lot of positives, in fact, only positives, which provides a lot of comfort going forward. The ISR is up 12% from Q3 last year to Q3 this year, 12%. I'm now turning to the next slide on the financial performance of our Norwegian business. We're reporting a combined ratio of 76.1% in Norway, the best reported figure of the last 10 years. And from the chart on the bottom left-hand side, the improvement is very visible also when you look at the 9 months figure. As a reminder, we put in place significant profitability initiatives in the last 2 years. We've discussed that at length, and these are paying off as expected.

And also, it is important to remember that price increases continue to taper off, and therefore, the pace of improvement will slow down going forward. Additionally, please note that we are now entering the most difficult part of the earnings season for the Norwegian P&C with autumn and especially the winter approaching. And hence, it's unlikely that the current performance will be similar to Q4 and even more so in Q1 with winter. In general, our Norwegian business has reached a very satisfactory profitability level, and our key focus now in management is to avoid some of the large swings seen in the past.

And now turning to the revenue growth section. And on the first slide in this section, we show that revenue grew 4.1% in DKK and 2.3% in local currencies in Q3, with the growth at a satisfactory level of 3.7% in the private segment. The commercial segment developed negatively following the losses during the 1st of January renewal of selected corporate customers as well as a general retention pressure in that particular segment. We mentioned in the Q2 call that revenue growth would likely be lower in the second half of this year and have updated the outlook to a revenue growth for 2026 of around 3% for the full year.

Today's numbers are fully in line with that statement. And at the same time, we continue to expect a good and gradual revenue pickup entering next year 2027. We have a very strong focus currently on both on retention and on commercial go-to-market initiatives and many internal more operational indicators are pointing in the right direction. That makes us very optimistic for what is ahead of us. At the same time, it is, of course, important to remember that staying disciplined is key to continue to run a profitable and stable business. This should not be rushed and this will not be rushed.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on customer retention. In general, the overall picture is actually improving. Retention is moving up in all 3 private segments, which is reassuring and positive. We also see signs of stabilization and slight improvements in the commercial segment with an uptick in 2 out of 3 business units, which is very important. As mentioned previously, past experience tell us that it does take a little while for retention to stabilize and improve again after a prolonged period of price increases to offset inflation. And with this good news, over to you, Miki.

Thanks, Johan, and good morning from me as well. We are pleased to report an improvement in the group underlying claims ratio of 60 basis points, up 10 basis points from the Q2 level. The improvement is mainly driven by the private business, which improves 80 basis points. As mentioned multiple times before, the underlying loss ratio is expected to be stable to slightly improving during this strategy period, and Q3 is a firm confirmation of that. It's also important to repeat that going into 2027, as Johan mentioned, we are likely to see a revenue improvement, and this will likely slightly dampen the level of improvement in the underlying. This is a natural consequence of the business dynamics and our way to achieve a balanced earnings growth.

Turning to Slide 14, where I, as usual, will comment on the more volatile items, large and weather losses as well as discounting and runoff. Q3 was a positive quarter, both in terms of large and weather claims. Large claims were DKK 169 million and weather claims DKK 83 million, both below the quarterly guidance. In the slide, we are showing both the quarterly and the year-to-date numbers as well as the historical development. We recognize that at times, these figures attract a lot of interest. But as you can see, the annual development has been both better and worse than our guidance in the past.

And in 2026, we are so far in line with the total guidance for weather and large, but with large losses performing worse than planned and weather better. The discount rate has increased somewhat, primarily as a function of the overall higher level of interest rates, while the runoff result at 2.4% is in line with our broad 2% runoff guidance. And with this, I hand it over to you, Gian.

Thanks, Mikael. We are now moving into the investment section. Total invested assets were DKK 58.5 billion at the end of the quarter, with the free portfolio being slightly below DKK 14 billion and the match portfolio being around DKK 44 billion. The asset mix is largely unchanged, leaving aside DKK 250 million lower properties exposure already mentioned from Johan. These money have been reinvested in covered bonds. The asset mix remains very conservative in line with the strategy launched in November 2024 (sic) [ December 2024 ] at the CMD.

In the following slide, we show the specification of the investment results in the quarter. In general, we are pleased about the numbers considering our chosen asset mix and especially the interest rate volatility seen in the quarter. The fixed income book in the free portfolio was hit by increasing interest rates, while properties experienced a positive return. The match portfolio benefit from a good interest on the premium provision and narrowing Danish and Norwegian covered bond spreads. Other financial was also better than normal, helping the overall results. And with this, over to you, Allan.

Thanks, Gian, and good morning from me as well. We are now moving into the solvency and expenses section. The first slide shows the development of the solvency position as per end of the quarter. In this slide, we are highlighting a robust solvency ratio of 203%, which is up from 196% at the end of last quarter. Furthermore, we are highlighting a very strong operating capital generation before dividend of 25% for the quarter. Own funds are, as always, primarily impacted by the movement in operating earnings and the dividend payment. The SCR in the quarter includes a very modest uptick with an increase from the revenue growth, which is offset by the reduced properties exposure.

Turning to the next slide, we show the historical development of the solvency ratio. We are pleased to report a very robust solvency ratio of 203% in a quarter characterized by very solid earnings and a modest increase in the solvency capital requirement. As mentioned multiple times, we expect our solvency ratio to gravitate towards a less conservative level long term. As promised, we will review our solvency position at year-end, and at that time consider extraordinary capital repatriation if found appropriate.

Currently, many things are pointing in the right direction, and with a robust solvency position of 203%, it is hard to stay pessimistic. As always, remember that we prefer a gradual approach benefiting our shareholders with balanced actions. We are now turning to the solvency sensitivities. Sensitivities are virtually unchanged since last quarter, which should not be a surprise, as the asset mix itself is largely unchanged when leaving aside the DKK 250 million properties reduction in the quarter.

The biggest sensitivity remains towards covered bond spreads movements, as this is our chosen asset class and represents the vast majority of our investments. The low solvency sensitivities are a key feature of Tryg's investment case. We remain focused on running a profitable and stable insurance business while we are arguably taking the lowest asset risk in the sector.

Now please turn to the next slide for details on the expense ratio development in the quarter. We are reporting an expense ratio of 13.3%, which is at the same level as last quarter and fully in line with our 2027 guidance for the expense ratio to be stable to slightly improving. Investments in additional commercial activities are funded internally by improvements in our operational efficiency. With this, I will hand it over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Allan. And we are now shifting gears as we enter the final part of this presentation focused on strategy and the financial targets. As a reminder for everyone, we aim to grow the insurance service result by DKK 1 billion during this strategy period from 2024 to 2027. And as you know, the strategy is based on these 3 pillars: scale and simplicity that should add DKK 500 million, technical excellence that should add DKK 300 million and customer and commercial excellence that should add DKK 200 million. A number of strategic initiatives are continuously being implemented, and we remain confident and pleased with the progress being made on the strategy implementation.

As for the scale pillar, we continue to strike more Nordic agreements, leveraging our procurement scale. As for technical excellence, we continue to scale more advanced risk modeling across the group. And as for customer and commercial excellence, I'd like to highlight 2 new partnerships focused primarily but not only on the motor segment. It's the Mercedes partnership in Sweden and the XPENG partnership in Norway. And allow me to elaborate on these in the next slide.

These 2 partnerships are both very important for us in our pursuit of balanced organic growth. One needs to always remember that motor is very often the key entry product for customers. And from the motor product, it is possible to cross and upsell to other product categories. In Sweden, in particular, Trygg-Hansa has a strategy to grow its fair share of the motor segment in order to diversify the very strong foothold within PA. This new partnership with Mercedes is, therefore, perfectly aligned with the strategy. And with Mercedes as one of the top brands in Sweden, this partnership demonstrates that we are truly getting commercial traction.

At the same time, we're also very pleased to have signed a new agreement with XPENG in Norway, an increasingly popular brand in Norway, the country with the highest penetration of EVs in the world. This partnership is building on a well-established market presence and will help us maintain a good revenue momentum in the face of lower price increases ahead of us, looking at more muted inflation outlooks. And I'll now be moving on to the next slide on sales and retention.

As communicated at Q2, we expect an approximate 3% revenue growth in 2026 as repricing measures are tapering off following lower claims inflation. We do expect to gradually move from a more price-driven growth to a more balanced approach. However, as you all know, organic growth in a healthy manner takes a bit more time to kick in due to the nature of the insurance business. Therefore, we have brought with us this slide a slightly updated version from the Analyst Day, which summarizes why we are optimistic on the revenue outlook entering 2027.

It illustrates the sales index year-to-date versus last year for each of our 6 business units, while also with a little arrow indicating how retention is trending. And total sales for the group year-to-date versus last year is on average up by 12% and the sales index for 5 out of 6 business units are pointing strongly in the right direction. These positive data points are supported with retention trends that are stable or improving for all business units. This is very important as we aim to achieve a higher and more balanced revenue growth in 2027 when price increases are likely to continue to taper off.

With that, let's turn to the next slide, recapping our well-known financial and strategic targets towards 2027. I'll just briefly repeat that we target an ISR between DKK 8 billion to DKK 8.4 billion, driven by a combined ratio around 81% and a ROOF between 35% and 40%. As always, our targets are assuming unchanged interest rates and currency levels as at the CMD in 2024 and assuming normalized weather and large claims. All targets are, of course, completely unchanged, and we work relentlessly to deliver on these.

And we now enter the final slide with the Rockefeller World reiterating our commitment to be a healthy dividend stock, underpinned by strong and stable earnings and a healthy solvency position. And with this, I think we're ready for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Martin Birk from SEB.

Johan, just a question to the last slide that you have about sales index in your various countries and also across business segments. You indicate 92% in Denmark, and I guess that is no surprise, but you also indicate an increasing retention ratio. When you report 92% in sales index, you have an upwards retention ratio. Could you please help me explain, is that a sign of severe price pressure in that segment? Or how should we interpret that?

Thanks a lot, Martin, and thanks for that question on the -- on that page, having both the sales index and retention trends. And I think you need to see these 2 numbers in isolation. So the retention trend is as a result of the fact that we are working diligently with the customer experience in the commercial segment in Denmark, but it's also a result of the fact that inflation is tapering off and the need for repricing is also tapering off similarly. So I think we are expecting to see retention, broadly speaking, across all business units bounce back to where they were gradually.

And as for the sales index, I think that is actually a matter of our strategic retransitioning from a period of double-digit inflation and a lot of focus on margin protection. We are now reactivating our organic growth engines and in all fairness, you could argue that our business, our commercial business in Sweden and Norway is just a little bit ahead in this transition going from margin protection to organic growth. I'm confident that the Danish Commercial Lines business will also get there. There they are slightly behind the 2 other segments. And to be honest, I think this is one of the benefits of being a hedge book. We are well exposed into 3 markets with 6 business units, and we are allowing ourselves to deliver the strongest quarter ever even with the commercial lines Denmark slightly behind the transition. So I think actually, it's a positive.

The next question is from the line of Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

I have 2 questions. One, again, just on the sales index. So when I look at those numbers versus what you had presented in the Analyst Day presentation, it appears that the numbers for Norway, private and commercial and Sweden commercial have actually worsened from Jan to April versus Jan to Feb -- September. So just could you give us a little bit more color as to what's going on? Do you see -- are you not as confident as you were, let's say, beginning of the year versus now? And what's happening to the competition there?

And second question, it's a little bit more around the comment again you had made earlier in the year that you are reasonably quite confident that you would beat the then consensus top line growth estimate of 3.7%. But now obviously, the recent comment has been like you are confident that you will accelerate. So can we still take that comment of 3.7% as the benchmark and then sort of model our numbers against that?

Thanks a lot. Two very relevant questions. As for the sales indexes across the 6 business units, you're asking me whether I'm still confident in what I'm seeing, and I am more confident than I was when we had the Analyst Day that you will see some of them going up, some of them going down. There's a lot of seasonality and a lot of stochastic things going in. I'm very confident with the commercial traction we are seeing, both in all the commercial go-to-market activities that we have launched, but also on the partnerships.

And bear in mind that in these numbers, a lot of the partnerships that we have announced are not really playing in yet. The Mercedes in Sweden is just coming into play 1 Jan next year. So there's a lot of boosters coming on top of this. So I'm very confident of our commercial momentum, especially because it's underpinned by retention improving. And as to your other point, I have by no means tried to weaken my point at Q2 saying I'll beat the consensus at that time of 3.7%. I'll stay firmly on that.

The next question is from the line of Youdish Chicooree from Autonomous Research.

I have got 2 questions, please. The first one is on interest rates. I mean there's been a very sharp increase in the past 3 months. And I think your discounting benefit doesn't fully reflect that benefit. So I was wondering if you could tell us what the benefit is going to be like in 4Q? And also what is the impact on your investment result as well on an ongoing basis? That's the first question.

The second one is, again, if I could come back on the sales index. Well, firstly, I don't quite understand how you calculate this because the numbers looks quite rosy for a lot of the segments. And I was wondering if you could explain exactly how this is calculated. And why not just show gross written premium, for example, because that should be a fairly good indicator of future revenues.

Thank you. For your first question around interest rates and the impact on discounting this quarter and going forward, please remember that discount effects are based on a combination of interest rates and claims mix, of course. But the 2.8% that we are printing this quarter, I mean, goes for the interest curves as we see them right now. So that was the first one on discounting. On investment results, yes, please remember that we are heavily into covered bonds and based on that.

And also, we have a free and the match portfolio, of course, the match portfolio that is as by nature, a hedge and making sure that increasing or decreasing interest will not impact our liabilities and so goes for the match portfolio. The free portfolio is a very short-durated covered bonds, duration of 2 years. So the impact will be very minor even though rates are increasing or decreasing.

And as for your other question regarding the sales dynamic, why we are showing this, I mean, this is based on the volumes we are selling in each of our 6 business units. And the reason why we're showing you this that this is a leading indicator of what will actually happen on the gross written premiums. So there's a little bit of a lag from you actually conduct the sales until customers migrate their policies into Tryg's books until we earn the premiums.

So we're essentially trying to give you comfort a little bit further out in the funnel that we usually report in just because we know that the top line growth is very important to all of us. And this is a way of, for us, show why we are comfortable with the growth outlook for next year.

Okay. Just 2 follow-up questions, please. First one on the interest rate point. So I thought the discounting was actually based on average rates, the change in average rates during quarters as opposed to the change period end to period end. That's the first follow-up. And secondly, Johan, if you're saying that the sales index is a leading indicator for GWP, then you're printing like mid-teens increases across a lot of -- well across most of your segments here. So those are -- and when you talk volumes, you mean in millions or you're talking like policies sold here?

Maybe I can just answer the last one. We're talking volumes in local currencies. That's how we measure the sales index. And this is -- the reason why we're showing you this is that some of the sales hasn't really converted into real policies and premiums as of yet. This is a leading indicator. And as for the discounting question?

Yes. Well, back to -- again, remember, this is a combination of interest rates and the claims mix. We use month-end interest rate curves in the way that we discount our reserves. So again, back to the fact the 2.8% right now, that is actually mirroring the interest rates that we see.

The next question is from Mr. Sunder from Danske.

It's Asbjørn from Danske. Congratulations for the semi-record in Norway. I have 2 questions, if I may. Could you provide some insights in the 2.3% local currency growth, how much would be rate and how much would be real business volumes? And the second question is on the auto deals that you've been signing up for. Do you expect that to be combined ratio dilutive?

Maybe I can take the first question. I had a little bit difficult hearing the question. But as I understood, you were asking into the 2% growth and how is was decomposed, right? So I think if you just start very strategically on that question, we are in a transition now for having that growth composition being much more organic and balanced. So normally, we strive to have 1/3 of the growth coming from price, 1/3 of it is coming from cross and upsell and 1/3 of it coming from inflow of new customers. If you look back in the last few years with high margin protection, price has been the predominant driver of the growth. The reason why we're seeing growth coming down is because price is taking up less part of the growth composition due to inflation tapering off.

And as we move forward, and I think the sales index slide should give you comfort around that, we will see a higher level of cross and upsell and a higher inflow of new customers. So this is a transition that is happening. When you decompose the 2.3%, we're seeing 3.7% in private, which is at an acceptable level. And as you see with -- for the commercial part, it's 0.7% drop. This is where we haven't quite completed the transition. So I think what we're seeing is a natural projection and a natural transition in the growth profile over the next quarters to come, you will see us changing this balance. And as to the other questions, which was regarding...

Could you repeat the other question?

Auto deals you've been making, would you expect that to be combined ratio dilutive?

Okay. So I think the question was on the partnership deals that we're making with Mercedes and XPENG. So I think, first of all, Motor is a capital-light product, which means that the combined ratios are slightly higher than if you combine it to the average of the portfolio. Second of all, for especially the Swedish motor deals, they are divided into the collateral damage waiver and the rest of the motor book. And the first part, you get a start with first of first and the second part, you sort of upsell gradually. So there is a bit of a timing effect in that. But it's both very sound business, but it has a small timing effect on the combined ratio impact.

The next question is from the line of Vinit Malhotra from Mediobanca.

Congrats again. I do have 2 questions, but I'll ask one now and then come back later if there's time. My main question is the underlying loss ratio. So congratulations on the success here. I'm just curious that for your long -- medium-term outlook, I don't know if it's the exact word, but the outlook has always been a little bit more cautious, let's say, on this metric. Is there another reason? Or is it just conservatism and you want to be positioning in a steady way for this very important metric in which you're achieving very strong success already. So I'm just curious as to what your thoughts are on that. My second question on commercial, but I promise I come back, so I'll come back later.

Perfect. But I'll go into the question on the underlying loss ratio. And I think as you alluded to, I mean, we have communicated before, and I'll sort of start off in that sort of boring part with saying that we have communicated that the underlying loss ratio should be stable to slightly improving. Having said that, I think there are 2 other important data points that you should take with you as well.

I mean, first, we are improving this quarter by 60 basis points, as we said. But we do expect the growth to pick up in next year and onwards from here. And that has an impact -- slight dampening impact, but that's all to do with that we want to have a balanced earnings growth. So that's the only reason for having an impact on the underlying.

And I think then last and finally, I mean, when we look at the inflation and our pricing, we are pricing at or slightly ahead of the expected inflation going forward. So I think that also gives you a data point of sort of what to expect going forward.

The next question is from the line of Daniel Wilson-Omordia from Morgan Stanley.

I guess I have 1 or 2 remaining questions. Firstly, on the solvency front. Clearly, your solvency is basically the same level it has been for about 2, 3 years now. Your target, I think, or your guidance is that you're gradually going to move to a less conservative ratio. For that to happen, it seems like something has to move here in terms of capital returns. And so I'm just wondering, is it fair to say that compared to like the last year when you did the DKK 1 billion in buyback, we need to do a little bit more this year and ongoing in order to actually beat that guidance. Is that fair?

And then I guess my second question is probably kind of an extension of Vinit's question. The improvements in the combined ratio here have been pretty impressive. You say that there is going to be some headwinds next year. But I'm just wondering how quickly do we see these improvements kind of like fall off or earn out. I think everyone has been a bit surprised by just how long they've kept going. So I'm just wondering what's the, say, the decay of improvement here? If there's any way you can sort of contextualize that, that would be great.

Yes. Let me start with the question related to solvency. Let's just take a step back here. We are pleased to report a very strong and very robust solvency level that is clearly supportive of further future capital repatriation. Allow me to reiterate that currently, many things are pointing in the right direction and with a very robust level that we have, it is hard to stay pessimistic. We are not here today to guide on anything in terms of what will happen after Q4, and we have never ever guided anything in relation to that.

Predictability means a lot to us. And we have clearly stated that we will assess the capital position at year-end. And based on that, we will decide accordingly. So make no mistake, we will act accordingly. And as mentioned, it is hard to stay pessimistic. And on the other question, Mikael?

Yes. So I think, again, coming back to the composition of the earnings growth. And as Johan has been saying a couple of times during this call, we are expecting the growth to pick up. We are showing the leading indicators for that. So hopefully showing some confidence and some trust in those numbers. And then in combination with that, we have a very sound underlying profitability, again, stating that we expect stable to slightly improvement in that with a couple of more data points, as I alluded to before. And we've also communicated stable to slightly improving cost ratios before. So I think that's how you should see the sort of combination of operating earnings going forward.

The next question is from the line of Michele Ballatore from KBW.

I have one question about solvency again and capital in general. But from the point of view of growth, so the growth you're targeting for next year and onwards, what kind of, let's say, capital consumption we should expect based on the line of businesses where you want to grow, especially in Sweden, of course. And also having a solvency so strong, is this or could be an incentive to accelerate growth? Or in general, this strong capital position could help in increasing growth?

Thank you for some very good questions here. And on the first one related to growth and the impact on our capital requirement. I just want to remind you that we are running a very retail stable business here that is not capturing that much capital. So every year, we only expect a few percentage points of our earnings that will go to fund, so to speak, the capital requirement linked to the growth. So it will -- that will not impact the solvency level much going forward. And on the other question of should that makes us want to grow even more?

I think fundamentally, just to put it in perspective, I think our high solvency ratio is not a requirement for us to grow. Where we are growing is, as Allan is alluding to, is in the retail space. It's very much the private lines, it's the SMEs. We don't need -- and the reason for our high capital position is not due to our growth ambitions, I think that's merely a testament to the fact that we have had a strong few years, and that has made us very robust on the solvency.

I have very little arguments for why we need 203% to operate our business. We are an SME-oriented business and a retail-oriented business. We don't need that. And I think we've been clearly stating that we will come down to a less conservative level. We have a I guess you could argue a routine of looking at this at year-end at our capital position. We're getting to year-end. We'll have a look at our capital position at that time. We don't need the solvency to grow.

The next question is from the line of Vinit Malhotra from Mediobanca.

For me, the one question remaining is on commercial lines in Denmark. Could you just share some light on what exactly is the reason why retentions are low? Is it competition? Is it people don't like pricing or is there something else that is happening there? And now that I'm here, one follow-up on this famous Slide 26. Compared to May, so I just want to check my understanding. In Norway, there has been a much lower print compared to May. In Denmark, it's much higher. Is this a result of pricing mainly? Or is it something else?

So for example, private lines in Norway was 123 then 114 now, 110 in Denmark then 119 now. So both different trends, is it just pricing driven? Just a quick clarification.

So thanks for those 2 follow-up questions. So on the first one on commercial lines Denmark, I think you're spot on zooming in on commercial lines Denmark. So when we look at the growth profile for the group, we are seeing private lines in general being acceptable just under 4%. We are seeing -- when we look at commercial lines, we are seeing actually Sweden and Norway growing in commercial lines. So the key issue to focus in on is commercial lines Denmark, as you're alluding to.

And just to give you comfort, the brand stands very strong in commercial lines Denmark. The competency stands very strong. The distribution and the customer earnings stand very strong. What we need to complete in commercial lines Denmark is to transitioning from being in margin protection mode to organic growth mode. And that transitioning is happening as we speak. It's just taking a little bit longer than it has done in the other markets. We are seeing retention.

As you said, it's not where we want it to be, but it's actually improving in this quarter, and we expect it to continue to improve. This is a matter of doing the growth in a very sustainable, healthy manner. Anybody can grow very fast in commercial lines. We are not interested in growing fast. We are interested in growing in a healthy, sustainable manner. That might take a little bit longer in 1 out of 6 business units. I think it's fair to say we have the luxury of being a hedge book where we can allow that to take a little bit of time. This will come through.

We don't expect it to turn around too quickly. We don't want too quick movements here. So expect this to be sort of at the back end of this strategy period that we're going to see the growth coming back into the commercial lines Denmark segment. As for your other questions, looking into the variations in the sales index, don't read too much into this. This comes down to seasonality, marketing campaigns, partners coming in and out. Don't read too much into that.

I think the way and what we want to convey is that if you look at these numbers, you'll see a 12% pickup year-to-date across all business units on average. You'll see -- if you only look at private lines, you'll see a 15% pickup. That's how you should read it. There will be variations week in, week out. You should get comfort from the average year-to-date, which is strongly supportive of future growth.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

I have a couple of questions and potentially a bit more sort of market level generic, but one is there's -- so Danish workers' comp that has been obviously a topic of discussion for a while. But now looking into 2027, what I understand is there still continues to be at least one specific player in the Danish market who is extremely competitive. Now given the repricing that's expected, assuming that particular competitor does not reprice, I would believe that Tryg would then be willing to give up volume. Can you just help us contextualize how does that sort of tailwind on pricing versus headwind on volume in Danish workers' comp sort of play through the entire numbers and the entire book? That's one.

And the second is there has been lately a lot of discussion on agentic AI distribution. And obviously, there has been a lot of chaos around Meta Muse, et cetera. But could you help us understand what is Tryg doing specifically to sort of future-proof itself in this context?

So if I start with the first one on Danish workers' comp, I think, first of all, it's important to state that we are always true to our underwriting focus and combining sort of how we best price from a technical perspective and a commercial perspective. And that is always the case, and Danish workers' comp is no different.

And then I think the second really important point here as well is that Danish workers' comp is 2% of our total book. So that gives you a quite important data point that it's a very limited impact overall if we look at Tryg from a Scandinavian point of view.

And then I think for your second question, which is more a strategic question around the worry that AI has created globally on insurance models. Allow me to just elaborate a bit on that question because I think this is probably a pretty good crowd to discuss this, and I'd love to share our view how we see this at Tryg. And I think just to kick it off, to not sound defensive because we, of course, acknowledge that regulation can change in the future. But current regulatory environments do not support AI agents buying insurances on behalf of consumers.

Just as a few examples under the current regulatory regimes, we, as an insurance company, need to ensure, one, I guess, you would say that the consumer has been advised on products and coverages sufficiently. Two, that the consumers' needs are covered adequately. And three, we need to also ensure that the AI agents' power of attorney can be documented. So you could say with this in mind, we don't currently envisage insurance operators allowing AI agents to purchase insurances on behalf of consumers.

And I guess on this notion of this commotion that's been right, it's important to highlight a few facts that may have somehow disappeared in the news flashes around AI agents. Already today, the large U.S. insurance aggregator, Insurify, and other sites have blocked Muse as an agent on their website over concerns regarding the stripping of critical coverage details, added cost, obvious mistakes in obtaining quotes, et cetera.

And in addition, Meta has actually limited Muse's autonomy by requiring manual acceptance, human in the loop before ultimately buying new insurances simply to avoid mass consumer lawsuits over AI mistakes. And I guess if you sort of zoom out of this, consumer protection regulations have always been and will always continue to be very high on the agenda of European countries. This could very likely hinder rapid or any changes to the distribution models.

However, and I guess, should the regulatory environment become more AI agent-friendly against our expectations, we believe there are certain characteristics in the Scandinavian markets in which we operate that will prevent this from becoming an actual problem and more likely just a new market condition on which we have to adapt. So the way -- and I'll take you guys a little bit a step up here in the strategic answer here.

The way insurances are bought is materially different between Scandinavia when you compare to the rest of the world. So products are in general bundled. The average consumer can easily buy 4 products or more. And insurances in our region are very much a convenience product and peace of mind and strong coverage is much more important to customers than necessarily getting the ultimate low price.

Very strong value proposition, the customer experience. That is what drives high customer loyalty, which is why our market is characterized by insurance companies selling their products, not customers proactively seeking to swap insurances every so often. And naturally, in that dynamic, strong brands are a key differentiator in the search for peace of mind. And I guess -- and this is not you saying that this is what you can see in all the news flashes, I'd like to challenge the connotation that an AI agent purely optimizing on price actually matches the customer sentiments in insurance and I guess in almost all other products.

If that was the case, if that was the customer sentiment, you could argue that all customers would be with one carrier already today or all buy the same mobile phone, which is not the case. We strongly believe that product quality, trust in the brand, trust in the customer service, trust in the peace of mind is much more important, especially in our part of town in the Scandinavian markets where customers are not willing to sacrifice peace of mind to potentially save $1 on the price for a product if they are with a company they do not feel entirely comfortable with.

I think this is a critical factor. We are operating in a very affluent part of town in the Scandinavian markets. And then I guess, if you take it even a step further back, distribution has changed significantly over the past many decades. We've been around for 300 years. I'm not going to bore you with what has happened in 300 years. But just if you look at the last 20 or 30 years, we've gone from home visits. We've seen the introduction of brokers in the corporate segment. We've seen sales moving into call centers. We've seen sales moving into virtual meetings with customers. We've seen online sales. We've seen chatbots. We've even seen attempts from aggregators trying to penetrate and change the market.

But the industry in Scandinavia has remained resilient throughout, not least due to the strong brands that we actually carry. So we expect -- so you're asking me where do I stand, right? And we expect strong brands and associated peace of mind will continue to be a competition parameter going forward. And of course, we're not defensive here. We are welcoming any technological advances in our markets, but we are convinced we will navigate through that as the most scaled player in the region. So we are comfortable with this.

The next question is from the line of Qian Lu from UBS.

I only got one left on the growth outlook. So group year-to-date new sales up 12% year-on-year, if I heard it correctly, and pricing is still keeping pace with inflation, plus retention trends are also improving. Given all these dynamics, why shouldn't this translate into like mid-single-digit revenue growth next year or potentially something higher? Could you please help me understand the key offsetting risk factors here to this assumption? For example, to what extent January renewal next year could be a big swing factor?

First of all, thanks for that question. I like you're getting ambitious on our behalf here. I think what you need to take into consideration because you're right, we are looking at strong growth numbers, 12% up across the group. We are seeing retention rates bouncing back. But we're also seeing a headwind from pricing coming slightly down. So I think when you do that math, I think we still stand behind our commitment in Q2 to beat the consensus, which was at 3.7% at that time.

But things need to move gradual and slow. I think that's the sane way to run an insurance company. That's what we are doing. So expect us to gradually beat the consensus at Q2, which was 3.7% and then let's take it from there. We don't want to be hung up on a growth number. I think that's how you get in trouble in an insurance company. The reason why we're indicating where we are now is that we see a very strong commercial momentum, both with the organic growth engines, the retention and the partnerships who haven't kicked in yet. So I think I'm not going to go as far as you want me to go. I'm going to stand by my commitment to beat the consensus at Q2.

The next question is from the line of Carl Lofthagen from Berenberg.

I just have one on the net reinsurance ratio line, which was 1.5% this quarter compared to 3.8% last -- in Q3 last year. I understand there's some volatility here given where we are in the insurance cycle. But just on a normalized basis, where do you expect that net reinsurance ratio to land? If you can add some guidance, that would be helpful.

So thanks for that question. I think if I take a step up, I mean, overall, we don't expect sort of the reinsurance line to change dramatically. We're basically running the same reinsurance program this year as we did last year, and we expect the next year's program to be more or less the same as this year. I think it's much more important that -- I mean, we are now sort of going into the renewal season of the reinsurance program and very much sort of looking forward to that and to have competitive prices going forward.

The next question is from the line of Martin Birk from SEB.

Perhaps 2 follow-ups from my side. First of all, just touching on Norway and the recent 2 quarters performance in Norway. How much of that is actually underlying improvements? And how much of that you characterize as stochastic luck? And then last question, I guess this goes for Allan. In 2024, I know we have touched on share buybacks and solvency. But in 2024, when you stood in London after having reported your Q3 results, your solvency also stood north of 200%. And you talked about gravitating to a lower point over the course of this strategy period.

And now, of course, you talk about potential for future share buybacks. But we haven't done it so far, Allan. So that -- so sorry not to be a little bit pointy here, but why should we -- is it coming to a point where we could ask yourself a fair question, why should we believe that this is going to gravitate to a lower level and not just stay at status quo?

Thanks, Martin, for those questions. If I start on the Norwegian one, I mean, we don't quantify exactly how much comes from the different sources, but we can conclude that we have had very good momentum on the underlying in Norway, especially Personal Lines Norway, and we've also been fortunate on the weather part and sort of -- so it's a combination of different sources for the improvement.

I think nevertheless, we are super happy about where we are in Norway. We can conclude that we -- 1 year ahead of plan and what we communicated, we'll be delivering a mid-80s combined in Norway, which is a very capital-light book, by the way. So similar to what we've been mentioning here for other parts of the book, we're now turning to more profitable growth going forward.

But even despite seasonalities in your Norwegian business, I mean, even mid-80s at this run rate doesn't seem very ambitious, does it?

True. But then you should also keep in mind that we've had some luck on the weather part. And I mean, we also stay a bit sort of deliberately vague on the mid-80s. So I think the overall comment, again, coming back to -- we are extremely confident of where we are in Norway and how we are going to progress from here on.

And on your second question, Martin, alluding to our Capital Market Day 2024, introducing our ambition of gradually taking our solvency position down to a less conservative level long time -- long term. I can remind you that we introduced a DKK 2 billion extraordinary share buyback at the day of the Capital Market Day. We did the assessment of our capital position at year-end last year. We introduced a DKK 1 billion share buyback at that time.

And as promised, we will assess our capital position at year-end again. And just to underpin, we said we want to take our solvency position down to a less conservative level long term, not necessarily in this particular strategy period. But make no mistake, we will act accordingly. And as mentioned, it is hard to stay pessimistic on a robust solvency position of 203%. I don't think that I have much more to add on this one, Martin.

All right. I agree. It's a bit of a luxury problem, but I'm sure we will discuss later.

As there are no further questions, I will hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Well, yes, thank you, everybody, for a very good conversation and for all your questions. As always, the Investor Relations team here at Tryg is available for any follow-up. Otherwise, we wish you a very good day, and thanks a lot again.

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Financial Reporting at Tryg. We published our Q2 figures earlier this morning. And I've here with me, Johan Brammer, our Group CEO; Allan Thaysen, our Group CFO; and Mikael Karrsten, our Group CTO, to present the numbers.

And with these few words, over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Gian, and good morning from me as well. Today, we report our Q2 earnings. And I will, as usual, begin with the financial highlights. So revenue grew by 3.3%, with a good solid growth of 5% in the Private segment, partly offset by a small revenue drop in the Commercial segment, which I'll come back to later in this presentation.

The insurance service result totaled DKK 2.39 billion when adjusting for the well-known one-off charge of DKK 1.2 billion disclosed on April 28 linked to the workers' comp. Including this charge, the reported insurance service result is DKK 1.19 billion for the quarter. The combined ratio based on the adjusted insurance service result was an excellent 77.4% boosted by a very strong rock-solid Norwegian performance. Please note that this quarter recorded large claims significantly above quarterly guidance.

We're pleased -- very pleased to see the underlying claims ratio developing positively, improving 50 bps, thanks to the profitability actions taken in the last few years to fight off the inflationary pressures. The Private segment improved 60 bps. The overall investment result was a robust DKK 262 million with both the match and the free portfolio contributing strongly and our property exposure was reduced by approximately DKK 200 million in the quarter. And on top of that, we are also flagging today an additional DKK 250 million reduction that materialized at the beginning of Q3.

In total, that gives us a reduction of DKK 450 million, which pro forma brings our property exposure down to around DKK 1.9 billion at the beginning of Q3, in line with our intended strategy. As you all know, the property reduction is freeing up solvency capital and helps us fully refocus our investment activities on low-risk Scandinavian covered and government bonds. Finally, we are reporting an operating EPS of DKK 3.2 and a ROOF of 51%, both adjusted for the workers' compensation charge. And we are, of course, paying a DPS of DKK 2.15 in line with the first quarter and we report a very robust solvency ratio of 196%. All in all, a strong quarter we're reporting today.

With that, we are now turning to the next slide on customer satisfaction. The customer satisfaction score for Q2 was at 83%, up from 81% at the end of 2024, the beginning of our strategy period. That essentially means that we're already reaching the targeted level for 2027 and to achieve this improvement, we have indeed launched a number of new initiatives towards our customers. For instance, our new contact center platform, Puzzel, has now been deployed in large parts of our business positively impacting the customer experience as process and handling time has improved by 6%. Additionally, the Storm Dave in April allowed us the opportunity to assist more than 5,000 customers in Denmark and Sweden with immediate support. And obviously, relatively large events like this and the support that we can swiftly offer to our customers remind them about who we are and what we stand for. And that also supports our strong customer satisfaction for this quarter.

With that, let's move to the next slide where I'll comment on the insurance service results split between our 2 segments, Private and Commercial. So the insurance service result in the Private segment was just shy of DKK 1.6 billion, driven by a combined ratio of 78.2%, good top line growth and improved underlying performance as well as higher runoff, which also helped the numbers. If we take a country over flight, Norway produced a very strong performance. Sweden continues to show a positive commercial development and the Danish business posted a strong performance considering that a not insignificant part of the large claims in this quarter were, in fact, Danish.

As for the insurance service results in the Commercial segment, it was impacted fully by the DKK 1.2 billion charge linked to workers' comp. Adjusting for this one-off, the insurance service result was at DKK 795 million, which is still a tad below the corresponding quarter in 2025, primarily driven by a high large claims experience, but also a top line reduction primarily driven by a somewhat weak 1st of Jan renewal on the corporate customer side. On the positive side, we are seeing retention stabilizing, which I'll come back to later on.

In addition to that and on a more general note, I'll come back to our expectations for the revenue development for the remainder of 2026 as well as 2027 later on in this presentation.

With that, let's turn to the next slide where I'll comment on the insurance services revenue by geography and also the normalized ISR walk on the right-hand side. As always, please remember that the reported ISR and combined ratio can be impacted by different factors such as large and weather claims, runoff results and also the overall level of interest rates. In Q2, we noted strong performance across the board. I'm particularly pleased to see the best reported combined ratio in the last 10 years in Norway and a Swedish performance that remains stellar while the Danish combined ratio is impacted by less favorable large and weather claims experienced compared to last year.

The ISR walk of the adjusted Q2 level versus last year, the chart on the right-hand side, shows a lot of positives and only one single negative, which is the large and weather claims experience, with an emphasis on the large claims as mentioned previously. I'd like to stress that we deemed the large claims experienced in Q2 and half 1 taken as a whole as entirely stochastic. We've had a thorough review of the commercial and corporate exposures and remain very comfortable with our exposures, very comfortable indeed.

With that, I'm turning to the next slide on the financial performance of our Norwegian business, a topic for the last few years that is coming through in a very good way now. We are reporting a combined ratio of 77.3% in Norway, the best reported figure of the last 10 years. And from the chart on the left-hand side, the improvement is very visible also when you look at the first half of the year, illustrated on the bottom left. As a reminder, we put in place significant profitability initiatives in the last 2 years, and these are now paying off as expected. And also, I guess it's important to remember that price increases are tapering off and therefore, the pace of improvement will slow down going forward. In general, our Norwegian business has reached a very satisfactory profitability level and our key focus now and onwards is to avoid some of the large swings we've seen in the past.

With that, I guess it's time to turn to the revenue growth section. On the first slide in this section, we show that revenue grew 3.3% in Q2 with the growth at a satisfactory level of 5% in the Private segment, up from 4.4% last year. The Commercial segment developed negatively following the losses during the 1st of Jan renewal of selected corporate customers as well as general retention pressure in that segment. We do expect the revenue growth to be lower in the second half of the year and have updated the outlook to a revenue growth of around 3% for the full year. At the same time -- this is important. At the same time, we do expect a pickup in 2027, and we should be able to exceed current market expectations. With all I'm seeing on commercial traction across the board, I'm confident we will.

We have a very strong focus currently on both retention and on commercial developments and many internal indicators are pointing in that direction. That makes us very positive for what's ahead of us, very positive indeed. And at the same time, it is important to remember that staying disciplined is key to continue to run a profitable and stable business.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on customer retention. In general, the overall picture is improving. Retention is moving up primarily in Private Norway and Private Sweden, while it remained stable in Private Denmark. We also see signs of stabilization and slight improvements in the Commercial segment, which is very important. As mentioned previously, past experience tells us, and we've looked through all the books that it takes a little while for retention to stabilize and improve again after a prolonged period of price increases to offset inflation. This will come back.

And with this, I'll turn it over to you, Mikael.

Thanks, Johan, and good morning from me as well. We are pleased to report an improvement in the group underlying claims ratio of 50 basis points, up 10 basis points from the Q1 level. Looking at the segments, one can notice that Private improved 60 basis points, while Commercial improved 30 basis points. The uptick in personal lines is driven by continued improvements in Norway while Commercial continued to see improvements, although slightly lower as earnings effect of previous actions decrease. As mentioned multiple times before, the underlying loss ratio is expected to be stable to slightly improving during the strategy period, and Q2 is yet another confirmation of that.

It's also important to repeat that going into 2027, as Johan mentioned, we are likely to see a revenue acceleration, and this will likely slightly dampen the improvement in the underlying. This is a natural consequence of the business dynamics and our way to achieve a balanced earnings growth.

Turning to Slide 14. In this slide, I will, as usual, comment on the large and weather claims experience, the general level of discounting and the runoff development. Weather claims were more or less in line with our Q2 guidance at DKK 91 million primarily impacted by Storm Dave. Large claims were significantly above the quarterly expectations with large commercial claims seen in Sweden and Denmark. Large and weather claims are stochastic by nature. And it's important to note that although higher than last year, the large and weather claims combined for the first half year are broadly in line with our expectations. The level of rates used to discount the claims reserves have moved upwards by 30 basis points, primarily as a function of short-term rate movements.

And finally, the runoff results. Excluding the one-off related to workers' compensation ruling, it was 3.5% in the quarter with high large claims and many moving parts. The result in Q2 is above our Capital Markets Day guidance, which remains unchanged at around 2%.

And with this, I hand it over to you, Gian.

Thanks, Mikael. We are now moving into the investment section. Invested assets stood at DKK 60 billion at the end of the quarter with a match portfolio making up DKK 46 billion and the free portfolio of DKK 14 billion. The asset mix is largely unchanged, leaving aside DKK 200 million of less properties. This money has been reinvested already in covered bonds. I think you heard previously that Johan was flagging that we sold additional property sale of DKK 250 million at the beginning of Q3. And this will impact the Q3 figures and reduce capital accordingly. Our asset mix remains very conservative in line with the strategy launched in November 2024.

In the following slides, we show the specification of the investment result in the quarter. In general, we're very pleased about the numbers, especially considering the chosen asset mix, the free portfolio benefit from falling interest rates and also a good return on properties, the match portfolio benefit from a good interest on the premium provision and slightly narrowing covered bond spreads. Other financials were also a little bit better than normal, helping the overall results.

And with this, over to you, Allan.

Thanks, Gian, and good morning from me as well. We're now moving into the solvency and expenses section. The first slide shows the development of the solvency position as per end of Q2. We report a solvency ratio of 196%, which is a higher level compared to Q1. Own funds are always primarily impacted by the movement in operating earnings and dividends. The operating earnings in Q2 include a net negative impact of DKK 202 million, which is the sum of the after-tax impact of the Danish workers' compensation case, offset by the increased future profit margin. This impact is shown separately in the slide and as mentioned previously, the net impact of those 2 is 4 percentage points on our total solvency position.

The SCR in the quarter includes a reduction of around DKK 20 million from the sale of approximately DKK 200 million of properties. We are also flagging that we have sold an additional DKK 250 million of properties in the beginning of July, which will benefit the SCR in Q3.

Turning to the next slide, where we show the historical development of the solvency ratio. We are pleased to report a robust solvency ratio of 196% in a quarter where we booked an extraordinary DKK 1.2 billion charge for the Danish workers' compensation case. The outlook for future capital repatriation is largely unchanged. We expect the solvency ratio to gravitate towards a less conservative level long term, and we will continue to assess our solvency position at year-end.

We are now turning to the solvency sensitivities. Sensitivities are virtually unchanged from the last quarter, which should not be a surprise as the asset mix is largely unchanged leaving aside the DKK 200 million properties reduction in the quarter. The biggest sensitivity remains towards covered bond spreads movements as this is our chosen asset class and represent the vast majority of our investments. The low solvency sensitivities are a key feature of Tryg's investment case. We remain focused on running a profitable and stable insurance business, while we are actively taking the lowest asset risk in the sector.

Now let's take a look at the expense development in the quarter. We are reporting an expense ratio of 13.3%, in line with the same level reported at Q1 and fully in line with our 2027 guidance for the expense ratio to be stable to slightly improving. Investments in additional commercial activities are funded internally by improvements in our operational efficiency.

And with this, I will hand it over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Allan. And we are now entering the final part of this presentation. This final part will focus on strategy and financial targets. And as a reminder, we aim to grow the insurance service result by DKK 1 billion during the strategy period from 2027 -- from 2024 to 2027. The strategy is, as you all know, based on the 3 strategic pillars: scale and simplicity that should add DKK 500 million, technical excellence that should add DKK 300 million and customer and commercial excellence that should add DKK 200 million. And a number of strategic initiatives are being implemented as we speak, and we remain confident and pleased with the progress being made.

As per customer and commercial actions, I'd like to highlight a few new partnerships one being with SAS Eurobonus and another being with the organization in Denmark called Lederne. And I'd like to on the next slide just elaborate a little bit further on these 2 partnerships. So these 2 new partnerships that we have recently signed are commercially very important for us. The first one is with SAS Eurobonus, the Scandinavian Airlines loyalty program, which has a member base of more than 6 million members in our markets, while the second one is with Lederne, Denmark's largest professional organization with around 130,000 members.

Partnerships are in general very important for us as they provide us high-quality leads and the possibility to penetrate certain attractive customer segments. And both of these 2 particular partnerships are targeting middle to high-income segments, where customers are loyal and are likely to cover all their insurance needs with one single provider. We are keen to build on these partnerships to further develop our business.

With that, let's turn to the next slide because in addition to the new partnerships I've just mentioned, I'd like to stress that we are in parallel also increasing our efforts and focus on our direct channels. We have previously mentioned how we've launched more than 20 commercial initiatives across the business to reignite the organic growth engines across Tryg. Amongst other things, we are seeing good developments in Alka, where a number of specific initiatives have already been launched and executed. In Alka to be specific, the focus has been on accelerating new sales, expanding our outbound sales teams as well as increasing the focus on retention, adding selected employees dedicated to this particular effort.

We believe these efforts in Alka will result in premiums in excess of DKK 100 million in 2028, and they are just a few of the initiatives in our commercial initiative catalog across the group. So altogether, and this is very important, we are very pleased with the commercial progress across all geographies, and this links back to my optimism earlier on this call that we should be able to exceed market expectations on revenue development in 2027.

With that, let's turn to the next slide recapping our well-known financial and strategic targets towards 2027. And I'll just briefly repeat that we target an ISR between DKK 8 billion and DKK 8.4 billion, driven by a combined ratio of around 81% and a ROOF between 35% and 40% all targets are completely unchanged, and we work relentlessly to deliver on these, of course.

That brings me to the final slide, with the Rockefeller chest on the slide and his words reiterating our commitment to being a healthy dividend stock, underpinned by strong and stable earnings and a healthy solvency position. And with this, over to you, operator.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Asbjorn Mork from Danske Bank.

Congratulations on the solid underlying Q2 result. So my question basically goes to the underlying movement we're seeing here in Q2, 60 basis points for Private, 50 basis points for the Group. I guess that's quite a sustainable improvement we should continue at least if I heard you correctly, Mikael, we should continue to see improvement also going into next year. And then your guidance on the growth of, I guess, at least it seems to me to be above 4% for next year. If I do the math -- and maybe my calculator is different than yours. But if I do the math, if you deliver on those 2, you will also exceed your guidance for next year. So which one has to give? Is it the growth that you're -- maybe it's a bit wishful thinking because we haven't seen the January renewals? Or is it the underlying that might start to deteriorate because of the growth? Or is it the guidance that needs to give at some point? That is actually my question.

I'll start on the first part of that question with your query into the underlying. And I mean, very rightly, as you mentioned, we are very happy about the improvement in the underlying. Like we said, the 50 basis points and then a little bit higher in Private, somewhat lower in the Commercial segment, but still improving. And I mean, as we said before, we see that to be -- continue to be on the stable side to slightly improving. And that's very much sort of underpinned by the rate increases and other actions that we're doing where we are pricing on inflation or slightly ahead of inflation. So we see very strong momentum on the underlying improvement.

And then I guess, Asbjorn, to your growth comment, right, I don't recall saying a number. But I do recall coming across, I hope, very confident that all the commercial momentum we are seeing is going to show up in the financials next year. So we do see an output where we will exceed the current consensus expectations on the top line. And you're rightly saying also that, that is, of course, linked somewhat to the underlying. There is no doubt that as we start growing, it will have an impact also on the underlying improvement, of course.

I don't think necessarily something has to give in that sense. I can do math where it all holds together with a continued underlying improvement with a growth that is beating and exceeding market expectations and still being exactly where we told the market we would be in 2027. I think just it's very important for me to clearly state that with all the commercial momentum we are seeing, it will show up in the top line next year.

But on the growth side, Johan, I guess you also mentioned somewhat higher growth rates going into '26 than what you're printing right now. And I guess the January renewal has been softer than you expected. I guess it's a little bit the same here. You might be confident for next year, but we haven't seen a January renewal for '27 for obvious reasons. So what makes you so confident that we won't have another January renewal that will set you back in 6 months?

I think that's a fair push, Asbjorn. But I think, first of all, if you look at the private lines in Q2, we are up from 4.4% to 5%. So something is actually moving. And I can see now that the commercial momentum is changing across all the initiatives we've launched. If you look at the retention chart I went through earlier, you can also see that retention rates are stabilizing and slightly improving. So there's a lot of components that we're now seeing. And you're rightly saying, at 1st of Jan next year, anything can happen, right? But with all we are seeing right now, we are very confident that we'll have a better journey in 2027.

And I think right now, what you're seeing in Q2 is simple math and something we're dragging along from the 1st of Jan renewal this year. That will drag with us the rest of the year. That's also why we are highlighting a growth for the year of around 3%.

Next up is Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

So I have one on the commercial segment. Just trying to understand a little bit more over there, you've printed a decline of 0.5%. And obviously, you've explained it's a little to do with the January renewals. But could you give us a sense of what the market environment is like. I mean what I'm trying to understand is, the fact that you have declined a little bit in the Commercial segment, is that driven by the usual Tryg conservatism wherein you prefer profitability over volume. Or is there sort of -- are you seeing increased competition in the market, which is sort of driving different behavior at your competitors as well? That will be my only question for now.

I think that's a very good question, and let us try to unfold that a bit and I'll take the first step at this. So I think, first of all, what you're seeing -- you're asking me, is the market conditions changed significantly? The answer is no. So the market conditions and the level of competitiveness stays fairly stable across the Nordics. I think what we are seeing is sort of the fumes of a few years of price increases coming off a double-digit inflation in the market. I think we're seeing the last fumes of that when we did the 1st of Jan renewal.

Coming into 2026, we've seen a significantly less need to do repricing in the Commercial segment. we are seeing our retention rates stabilizing and even slightly improving. So I think what we're seeing is just the fumes of a highly inflationary environment where we've been very disciplined and protective of margins. So in that sense, you are right in saying it could be linked somewhat to our conservatism, but we are also seeing a different need for repricing. We're seeing retention impacted positively. And when I say for next year, we see good commercial traction, it goes for both private lines and commercial lines. So we are looking into something better. But just from the pure math of this, we are dragging along 1st of Jan renewal throughout the rest of the year.

That's really helpful. And now if I can ask my second question? Just so is it fair to then assume in 2027, we'll go back to your original sort of guidance? And I don't know if guidance is the right word, but essentially 1/3 volume, 1/3 price and 1/3 upselling. Do you think we'll now shift to that sort of environment in '27?

Also a good point, and you're right, we've normally said that's the kind of growth profile we'd like to have. It was pretty much the growth profile we used to have before inflation kicked in. We are now seeing that our growth profile is changing and price is taking up a smaller amount of the growth. And with prices tapering off this year and most likely also next year, yes, we're going to see us coming closer to that exact balance.

Next question will be from the line of Nadia Claressa from JPMorgan.

My first question is just, I guess, looking ahead to 2027. I mean we hear you loud and clear on the expectation for growth to accelerate. But can you just help us frame this kind of growth pickup a little bit? Should this be more H2 weighted than H1? I think I'm just trying to understand how that will develop from the 2-ish percent implied exit rate for 2026?

And then secondly, just a quick kind of, I guess, follow-up on the earlier comments made on the growth into 2027 and the mix. I understand that commercial remains cautious for the remainder '26, but that should pick up into '27. So how should we expect, I guess, the relative contribution of growth within the private and commercial mix to be in 2027 as it will have an implication on the underlying claims ratio?

Okay. So let's try to answer those questions as I understand them. The first one is related to our expectations for growth next year. And other one is how the growth in Commercial Lines will contribute to that growth profile. So I think you should assume that our growth trajectory will improve coming into the new year. So don't expect this to be a buildup that will come at the back end of next year. We're looking into right now a Commercial traction that gives us confidence that coming into the new year, beginning of the year, we're going to see a different performance, also a different performance that will exceed the current market consensus or expectations.

As for the Commercial lines, I think there is some math here that the 1st of Jan renewal will, of course, be washed out as we come into next year. That being said, don't expect any of our business lines to dramatically change their growth profile overnight. So I think with the current growth profile of Private and Commercial, expect Private to be the majority driver of this. But in all fairness, there is some math going into this from the 1st of Jan renewal. We expect both segments to contribute positively to exceeding market expectations. Another thing for the latter point, Mikael, maybe you can talk to the impact on underlying.

Yes. So with the growth accelerating in 2027, a natural consequence of that is that it will have a slight impact on the underlying. And that comes not least from the fact that we are expecting growth to pick up in Sweden. And Sweden is, as you know, a heavy book on the personal accident part where now growth will come from different sources across the board. So it's a very natural consequence that short term that will have an impact -- slight impact, slight impact, I need to add, on the underlying but it's with the same discipline as we always have in how we mix growth and the profitability.

The next question will be from the line of Mathias Nielsen from Nordea.

Thanks a lot for taking my questions as well given that it's a pretty undramatic result. It's not because there's many questions to ask. But you just touched upon a bit on Sweden and also noted that growth is now above 5% in Sweden. Maybe you could add a bit of flavor of like what categories in Sweden are driving the growth at the moment and how should we think about that going forward?

Yes. So I would say the growth in Sweden is actually coming from across the board. We're seeing good commercial momentum in Personal, in Commercial and also across the different products. So I would just say that it's nothing new and it's our traditional products and our traditional go-to-market strategy. But as Johan mentioned before, we have launched a number of commercial initiatives, and that goes not least for Sweden. So it's very much sort of business as usual, but growth picking up.

And I guess just to add to that. No -- just one thing -- just to add to that, we're also seeing -- you remember last year, we talked about our 13 motor partnerships that we have signed. They are now implemented, and we are seeing that also reaping in business from motor and enhancing our exposure spot on, as we told the market back when we had the CMD in 2024, then we would like to increase our motor exposure in Sweden. We're seeing that happening right now. So that's a specific category.

Okay. So we should expect the growth in Sweden to be 5% plus in the coming quarters as well? That would be a fair assumption.

I couldn't hear you. Come again?

So it would be a fair assumption to assume that growth in Sweden would be 5% plus in the coming quarters as well, given that growth is still picking up? Or is there anything exceptionally good this quarter this quarter in Sweden?

There's nothing exceptional this quarter in Sweden. I don't want to guide on a number in specific business unit or specifically the country. If the market is not there, we are not going to grow. But there's nothing -- specifically in this quarter, actually, you are seeing the impact now of a lot of structural work that has been done commercially in Sweden in the last few years. So there's nothing -- so you're not wrong in assuming that.

Next is Youdish Chicooree from Autonomous Research.

I was wondering if you could provide an update on the Danish workers' compensation situation, please. More specifically, how claims received, if any, were tracking versus your expectations? And also the status of discussions with the AES in terms of coordinated response on how to deal claims. And I'm guessing if claims experience has been very benign, over what time frame do you think you will start to release the provisions you have booked?

Thank you, Youdish, for your questions around update on the Danish workers' comp. Different questions included in the question here and starting with the number of claims. You should expect it will take time until we see any sort of numbers on claims related to this case. And yes, so it will take time until we have any new information to add on the math that we have done on our research.

The other one is around the next steps from here. We are -- the situation in Denmark is that a new Danish government has only recently been formed. And we will -- of course, as said, we'll continue to pursue the track of an indemnity model through our industry association, and we are waiting for further steps to be taken in this case. So you should not -- again, back to the reservation estimates. We are very conservative on this one, as we have said. It is also, as said, extremely unlikely that the estimates will become higher. But realistically, as where I started, it will take years before we see actual decisions on the resumptions coming out of the AES. And as a result, any potential future development will be part of the normal run-off unless an indemnity model is implemented, of course, we will come back on that part.

The next question will be from the line of Martin Birk from SEB.

Two questions from my side. First of all, on growth and the 4% growth component into next year. Could you please specify that out on the -- in relation to the partnerships that you have flagged this quarter? And also, please elaborate what does it mean when you get potentially 6 million leads into company? And what kind of penetration rate do you expect with these -- from these partnerships?

And then second of all, maybe just a broader question. In the light of sort of the rapid improvement that we have seen over the past couple of years maybe your Norwegian business and also the stellar combined ratios that you're printing in Sweden. What do you think about your Danish franchise and the profitability levels that you are reporting in Denmark?

Thanks for those 2, 3, 4 questions. I'll start by going into the growth component and sort of also making a link back to the partnerships. Just to be very clear, so we have launched a number of commercial initiatives across the group, across Private, across Commercial, across Denmark, Sweden and Norway. So when I'm talking to my growth confidence for next year, that's what you should link it back to. The 2 partnerships are just illustrative of our ability to attract attractive partners in the markets. So don't expect them to be driving a significant part of the growth for the group, that's simply not possible.

So the 6 million SAS Eurobonus members, we will welcome all of them, but don't expect them to come in at once. This is not how it works. So we don't expect them to make a meaningful contribution in itself. So I think you need to see in general, with a lot of 13 other motor partnerships last year on Motor in Sweden.

Now there's the Scandinavian partnerships and SAS Eurobonus. There's a union in Denmark. And then you need to also put it together with all the other initiatives, I mentioned some of them in Alka, we are doing similar things in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. So it's a broad catalog of initiatives for us to move the needle on top line, and I'm confident we will. And as for your point, specifically on Denmark, Maybe, Mikael, you will talk to that.

Yes. Maybe I'll start with giving some comments on the Norwegian part, as you asked about, Martin, and let Johan broaden out sort of from a Scandinavian basis. But if we start with Norway, we are very pleased around the development, very pleased. And I think we talked about this, I don't know how many quarters or years, but quite a number. And we have continuously said that we should get Norway to mid-80s combined. And we can actually now also see that if we look at things from a rolling 12 basis, the last 12 months, Norway is actually very much mid-80s combined with just over 85%. So it's a 10 to 2 in between. That, of course, is with a little bit of luck on large and weather claims.

But on the other side, we are seeing continued earnings impact of all the actions that we have put through historically. And are continuously for Norway pricing ahead of inflation. So very satisfied around the Norwegian development.

And then as for your last more strategic question as to the growth profile across our Scandinavian markets, I think what we are seeing now this particular quarter and maybe the first half of this year, we're seeing Denmark trailing slightly to Sweden and Norway. Expect us to find a different level. But I think going forward, you should expect a higher growth profile in Sweden and Norway, than you will in Denmark being where we have the market -- the highest market share, but we do expect also a pickup in the Danish growth numbers, but expect them also still to be trailing the Swedish and Norwegian numbers going forward.

Our next question comes from the line of Alessia Magni from Barclays.

A quick question on Commercial. To what extent is the pressure that you see in revenues related to the global reinsurance environment that we see elsewhere? And also, if you can go back to the moving parts of what are the drivers for the Commercial expectation -- Commercial momentum improving into 2027? I didn't get that.

All right. So if I start with the more sort of international outlook of the Commercial business, I mean, you're right that the market softening a little bit on the very high end. But then remember that our exposure at the very high end is very, very limited. We run an SME-focused business, which has a little bit of corporate exposure as well, 7% to 8% of our total book. So it's very limited impact that we see. But we do see that on the very high part, there is a bit of softening on the rate. That also comes when you look at things from a more reinsurance perspective.

So we see when we look at the reinsurance market, a bit of softening when we look at the geographical markets that have the renewal this year. And of course, we expect to be having some benefits of that when we move into the 01/01 renewals from our side as well.

I think then for your latter question, which was more around what are the drivers behind the drop, the slight drop we're seeing in Commercial lines revenue. And I think just to reiterate some of them and maybe I can also add a few. So first of all, we are seeing the 1st of Jan renewal of 2026 being slightly to the weak side. We also communicated that last quarter. I think we are seeing sort of the fumes of significant repricing due to inflation that's coming down. We are seeing that translating into renewal rates that have been under pressure, but are now stabilizing and slightly improving. That's a positive that gives us confidence for next year.

We are also now seeing as part of the 20 initiatives, more than 20 initiatives of commercial traction we have launched. A few of them are also -- quite a few of them is actually linked also to the Commercial segment. We are now seeing growth initiatives around agriculture in Denmark, for instance. Cyber insurance across the board is taking up quite a lot. We are seeing cyber insurance sales being up more than 20% compared to last year. So there are a number of initiatives that we are waiting to see the impact of. But now we need to see the 1st of Jan 2026 renewal sort of being evaporated and give us a clean slate for next year, and we are confident the growth will come up next year.

[Operator Instructions] Next up is a follow-up from the line of Vash Gosalia.

This is more of a follow-up on something you replied to Nadia's question. So your exit rate -- so okay, you are seeing 3% growth for 2026. And you have presumably, let's say, about 3.4% in 1H. So I would assume that your exit rate for 2H would be lower than 3%, maybe somewhere around 2.8%, just to get to the 3% number. And then you're telling us that obviously you are quite confident that you will beat the 2027 consensus, which would, in my mind, imply a much higher growth rate than 4% -- or not much higher, but a higher growth rate than 4%. And then it just feels like it's a big uplift from going from slightly less than 3% to then slightly up more than 4%. So can you just help me understand the trajectory of that growth that you expect to deliver between 2H and then 2027?

Thanks for that question. Let me try to be more clear because I understand the confusion. So you're absolutely right. In your assumptions for H1 versus H2, you're absolutely right. We are expecting H2 to be worse than H1 to get us to an average for the year around 3%. That being said, and maybe that's where I need to be more clear. For next year, we're expecting, I'm confident that we will exceed market consensus. But bear in mind, there's a little bit of math going on that we are washing out the 1st of Jan renewal that we saw this year that will not carry us into next year. So when you do the Q-on-Q, it will be slightly different.

Do expect us, and I want to be very clear, we do expect a stronger Commercial momentum. We are seeing that picking up right now. But as you know, in insurance, it's a slow-moving financial ledger in the sense that before we do the sales, before people are migrated into our books and before we earn the premiums, there is a delayed factor. That's why I have commercial indicators from the machine room that gives us strong confidence for next year.

And our next question will be from the line of Vinit Malhotra from Mediobanca.

I mean, quick 2 follow-ups, please. Just sorry, again on the revenue growth. The -- I mean, I understand you're probably guiding to the growth rate being much stronger next year or better than market expectations even while the actual nominal Danish amount of revenues may or may not be exceeding expectations of the market. Is that something you would completely disagree with? Or I just wanted to follow up or clarify that?

And if I can also clarify the comment on underlying, just my understanding. The -- as these initiatives pick up, say, for example, Sweden, the -- some of the underlying loss ratio improvement should tail off from the current, say, 40, 50 bps. Is that what you're trying to suggest for the next year?

So maybe I'll start with your first fishing expedition. So on the growth profile, right? We don't normally comment on our top line outlook. So we're doing it now. We want to be a little bit precise on our 2026 assumption. Also, we want to be clear that we are confident with what we are seeing on 2027. I don't want to share more details on that. I'm very confident with what I'm seeing. We will exceed the market consensus. That's all I have to say on that topic. I understand your question. And maybe, Mikael, on the underlying.

Yes. On the underlying, I think your assumption is correct. I mean the new business growth that we will see will likely be at a slightly higher combined ratio than the average core to start with, and then it improves from there as we move along. So it has a short-term impact on the underlying. But again, I repeat a slight short-term impact on that, and it's a very natural consequence of the business dynamics.

As no one else is lined up for questions in this call, I will now hand it back to Johan for closing remarks.

And I'll hand it on to Gianandrea to do that.

Thank you, everybody, for all the questions. As always, just to remind you that the Investor Relations team here at Tryg is available for any follow-up. Otherwise, we would all like to wish you to have a good summer, and thanks a lot again.

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Financial Reporting at Tryg. We published our Q1 figures earlier this morning. And I have here with me, Johan Brammer, our Group CEO; Allan Thaysen, our Group CFO; and Mikael Karrsten, our Group CTO, to present the numbers.

With these few words, over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Gian. And a very good morning from me as well. This is a good day, and I will go straight to the first section of the presentation, where I'll start by commenting on the financial highlights as usual, as well as comment a bit on the revenue development.

So Tryg reported a premiums growth of 3.5%, primarily driven by the Private segment and in particular, by our Norwegian business, whereas the Commercial segment reported lower growth also following a challenging 1st of Jan renewal.

The insurance service result was a strong DKK 1.655 billion, driven by a strong combined ratio of 84%. The group underlying claims ratio improved by 40 bps, showing an improvement compared to recent trends. This is primarily driven by profitability initiatives in Norway.

The investment result was DKK 2 million positive in a quarter that experienced the return of sharp volatility in capital markets following high geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Equities dropped, corporate spreads widened and interest rates moved upwards following changes to inflation expectations.

But as a reminder, we have a very conservative asset mix made up primarily by Danish and Scandinavian covered bonds. We have no equities. I repeat, we have no equities in the mix. And hence, we did well in the midst of the storm.

The pretax result was DKK 1.276 billion. Operating EPS was DKK 1.85 and the return on own funds were 28.6%. Finally, Tryg pays a Q1 dividend per share of DKK 2.15 and reported a solvency ratio of 192% supportive of future capital repatriation.

And before I end my initial comments, I would like to add that we monitor closely, of course, the development in the Middle East tensions and the potential spillover on the global economies and specifically inflation. The situation remains very volatile. And upon looking at our book, it is primarily the motor property liabilities that are exposed to inflation in Wave 1.

With that, I'm mainly referring to inflation on goods and spare parts and not so much on salary inflation. We remain very alert, but also remain confident in our ability to price risks correctly and steer through any scenario we'll face.

With that, we are now turning to the next slide on customer highlights. The customer satisfaction score for Q1 was 82, coming from 81 at the end of 2024 and against the target of 83 for next year. The higher satisfaction has been driven by improved online features that resulted in a better customer experience. Additionally, the new contact center platform called Puzzel is gradually being implemented successfully across the group and we know that improved customer satisfaction linked to this, in particular at Alka and Trygg-Hansa.

Now let's move to the next slide where we take a look at the ISR by segments. Please remember that a lot of moving items such as large and weather claims, interest rate movements and run-off do, of course, impact the ISR on a reported basis.

The Private business reported a higher ISR driven by good growth and improved underlying performance together with a higher run-off, which was then partly offset by large and weather claims together being higher than in Q1 2025 despite remaining lower than normal.

The Commercial segment reported lower ISR driven by a muted top line growth, higher large and weather claims together and lower run-off result, while an improved underlying performance was noticeable.

In the next slide, we illustrate the bridge of the performance from Q1 last year to Q1 this year and take a quick look at the performance by geography. If we just start with the bridge on the right-hand side of the slide, the result this quarter was improved by the premium growth, particularly in the Private lines and improved underlying performance, our higher runoff and positive currency developments, whereas on the negative side, higher large and weather claims taken together were recorded although -- and I repeat that, although these were still below normal levels.

On the left-hand side, the ISR by geographies saw a positive development across all countries. As mentioned before, a lot of moving parts can impact the reported figures. However, we do notice a continuous positive development and an improved combined ratio across the board. That's important.

On the next slide, we zoom in on our Norwegian performance that continues to show improvements. It's important to remember that Q1 is by far the more complicated quarter of the year in Norway due to often challenging winter weather. Nevertheless, Q1 2026 was the best Q1 in the last 8 years, continuing the improvements seen in the last 18 months or so. The combined ratio for the quarter was 93.7%.

As mentioned previously, price increases are expected to be lower starting from the Spring, but we remain very vigilant to protect profitability, should inflation become visible again, as discussed before with reference to the Middle East tensions.

As for the composition of our book, motor represents a bigger share of our revenues in Norway, around 40% compared to the group just above 30%. And therefore, our attention here is, of course, at the highest level.

With that, we turn to the next section and the first slide of the insurance revenue section. In this slide, we illustrate that the group premium growth was 3.5% in local currencies, a levels similar to recent quarters. As for the Private segment, it grew nicely above 5%, while the Commercial segment growth was more muted. The growth in the Private segment is still primarily driven by price increases, mainly in our Norwegian segment, although we are also seeing Commercial activities starting to pay off, especially in Sweden.

As for the Commercial segment, we continue to focus on SME, while some customers exited in the corporate part of the 1st of January renewal. We do expect the group top line development to improve slightly and gradually in the second half of 2026 and onwards, both in absolute terms, but also with a more sustainable composition. Obviously, the precise timing of this is also linked to the current Middle East tensions and potential inflation spillover.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on customer retention. When looking at the retention levels, we noticed a general improvement in the Private segment, while pressure remains in the Commercial segment. Our experiences from the past show us that it takes a little while before following periods of price increases, the retention stabilizes and bounces back. We've now achieved that balance in the Private lines, and we expect to do so in the Commercial lines during 2026.

It is noteworthy in this context to mention that our main shareholder, TryghedsGruppen, has just announced its customer bonus of 7%. It was 6% last year to Danish customers. I mentioned this year as we believe this is helpful in terms of retention going forward.

And I guess with that, I'll turn it over to you, Mikael.

Thanks, Johan, and good morning from me as well. The underlying claims ratio improved 40 basis points, both for the group and the Private segment in Q1. And this is an improvement compared to the most recent quarters, showing that profitability measures, especially in Norway, are paying off. Stability remains paramount for us. And as we have been mentioning at the Capital Markets Day, we do expect that the underlying claims ratio to remain broadly stable to slightly improving towards 2027. And this remains unchanged today.

Turning to Slide 14. We are here showing the development of the most volatile items, large and weather claims, the run-off result and the overall level of interest rates that we used to discount the claims reserves. Large claims were above normal in Q1, while weather claims were well below normal level during this quarter.

Q1 held a couple of large Commercial claims, in particular, in Sweden, while weather claims were low despite snow and colder weather than normal, that affected Denmark and Southern Sweden in the quarter. The run-off result was fairly stable at 2.5% and in line with recent experience and our guidance of a run-off around 2% towards 2027.

Finally, the discount rate was 2.4%, unchanged from Q4. And please remember that this is an average of the 3 months, and it's also a function of both interest rates level and the claims mix.

And with this, I hand it over to you, Gian.

Thanks, Mikael. We are now moving into the investment section of the presentation. At the end of Q1, total invested assets were DKK 62 billion with the match portfolio being approximately DKK 48 billion and the free portfolio DKK 14 billion. The asset mix is completely unchanged, also in light of the fact that properties exposure has remained stable in Q1 versus the end of 2025.

If you look at the actual investment result in the quarter, it was DKK 2 million. As Johan mentioned, it was a quarter characterized by high volatility following renewed Middle East tensions. Equities drop, corporate bond spreads widened and interest rates move upwards.

Against this backdrop, we were quite happy about our very conservative asset mix and pleased to report a modestly positive investment result. The free portfolio posted a return of close to 0. The match portfolio returned DKK 76 million, while other financial was slightly negative, DKK 69 million, a little bit better than normal. All in all, the current asset mix is confirming downside protection at the time of high volatility and this is what we were looking for when we did the change to the asset mix.

With this, over to you, Allan.

Thanks, Gian, and good morning from me as well. Let's move into the solvency and expenses section. This first slide shows details on the development on our solvency position as per end of Q1. Tryg reports a solvency ratio of 192% against 196% at the end of last quarter. It is important to remember that Q1 is historically the quarter with the lowest normalized level of earnings and therefore, also the quarter where dividend costs are proportionately higher from a solvency perspective. As a reminder, today's announced dividend is already deducted from the current solvency position of 192%.

Own funds have been primarily impacted by the operating earnings, the dividend payment and by the strengthening of the Norwegian kroner. On top of that, the temporary 3 percentage points uplift from the refinancing back in November has now been deducted from our own funds. The solvency capital requirement has primarily been impacted by the higher level of interest rates resulting in lower claims reserves on the balance sheet and, therefore, a lower capital charge.

SCR is also positively impacted by a lower nominal amount of fixed income instruments. And finally, the strengthening of Norwegian kroner has impacted the capital requirements negative.

Now please turn to the next slide. In this slide, you can see the historical development of our solvency ratio. We are very pleased to report a robust solvency ratio of 192% after a quarter with significant macro shocks, while the level remains supportive of future capital repatriation. As mentioned, we expect solvency ratio to gravitate towards a less conservative level long term, and we expect to continue our year-end assessment of our solvency position also going forward.

And now please turn to the next slide for updated solvency ratio sensitivities. Sensitivities are virtually unchanged from the last quarter, which should come as no surprise as the asset mix is broadly unchanged. The biggest sensitivity remains the one towards covered bond spread movements as this is our chosen asset class and represents the vast majority of our investments. The low sensitivities about our investment case fits our thinking well, as stability is one of the most important elements also in times with high volatility in capital markets.

And now let's move to the expense ratio development on the next slide. We are reporting an expense ratio of 13.3%, which is fully in line with the levels shown in Q1 last year, and the overall number of employees remained stable in the quarter.

Investments in additional commercial activities are funded internally by improvements in our operational efficiency. And finally, we continue to expect the expense ratio to be stable to slightly improving towards 2027.

And with this, I will hand it over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Allan. And I guess, with this, we are now entering the final part of the presentation, which is on strategy and financial targets. As a reminder to all of you, we are aiming to grow the insurance service result by DKK 1 billion over the 3-year strategy period. Most of you know the strategy is based on 3 pillars: scale and simplicity, that should add DKK 500 million; technical excellence, that should add DKK 300 million; and customer and commercial excellence, that should add DKK 200 million. A number of strategic initiatives are being implemented as we speak, and we remain very confident and very pleased with the progress across all 3 strategic pillars.

As for scale and simplicity, I'd like to highlight just a new partnership with Carbucks in the next slide. So if we move to that next slide, I want to just highlight that we've entered into a new Nordic partnership with Carbucks, and for some of you, you might ask yourself, what is Carbucks. Well, Carbucks is a claims handling company focused solely on car repairs across all brands in a fast and very efficient manner, limiting the use of replacement parts.

Carbucks has a very sophisticated setup, and they can prepare a wide range of dents, scratches and cracks in just a few hours, actually in just 2 hours. And we believe this partnership will increase our customer satisfaction. We believe it will allow for a very effective and ultimately cheaper claims handling, while also offering a more sustainable solution to our customers. We see already in our figures a sharp increase in the number of claims steered to Carbucks and do we expect this to grow substantially towards 2027.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on our well-known financial and strategic targets towards 2027. I'll just briefly repeat that we target an ISR between DKK 8 billion to DKK 8.4 billion. You should see it on the midpoint of DKK 8.2 billion, driven by a combined around 81% and a roof between 35% and 40%. All targets are completely unchanged, and we work relentlessly to deliver on these.

With that, we go to, I guess, our favorite slide, our usual slide and our final slide with the Rockefeller words, reiterating our commitment to be a healthy dividend stock, underpinned by strong earnings and a very healthy solvency position.

And with that, I think I'll turn it over to you, Operator.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Asbjørn Mørk from Danske Bank.

I would like to ask around the contingent liabilities note. And I guess you already now know what kind of topic that would be around, but of course, the case on the appeal board against the Codan Denmark. I do read your note stating that you expect that it will not affect the group's solvency position. I guess you are expecting the appeal board to win the case. But could you unwrap this note a little bit for us in terms of what would be the different potential outcomes as you see it in terms of impact for you? Should the appeal board lose the case? Would that still be the case, the conclusion that it will not affect the solvency position? Or is that just a probability weighted statement? And how would we -- sort of, how should we think of this in terms of impact financially for you?

Okay. Thanks a lot for that question, Asbjørn, and good morning to you. I understand, of course, that this contingent liability is a hot topic these days. I read the reports, I read the news. I follow this very closely. And I think just to be very helpful to everybody who's listening into the call today, I'll only comment on this once during this conference call. So we don't waste 40 minutes saying the same things 10 times. So let me be very clear with 3 things on that question because it is an important question, Asbjørn.

First of all, we clearly believe -- we clearly believe that the ruling will be favorable to the industry and Tryg, right? So that's point number one. We believe the ruling will be favorable to the industry and Tryg.

Second, should the case still end up being adverse for the sector? We are confident that a pragmatic solution will be found with the Danish state.

Thirdly, in the very, very unlikely event that this case affects Tryg's reserves. We do not see it significantly affecting our solvency position. Let me just underpin that word. We do not see it significantly affecting our solvency position. And for those of you who don't know the case in details, I can clearly state we have more insights into this topic than you do, and I can only reiterate this will not be significant for our solvency position. I hope that's sufficiently clear because I think that's the only time we're going to answer this question on this call. So those of you who are in line with questions on this topic, find another one. Thank you so much.

That was very clear. So I guess that means the worst case, you don't see any significant impact on your solvency position. But if I may just ask because, obviously, right now, we are forming a government in Denmark these days. So the whole second scenario you mentioned where you expect the primary outcome, is that going to be impacted by the recent election and the forming of the government? Or how do you see that?

I think, maybe I was unclear as to how many times I would discuss this. But as well, I see your point. I think what you're discussing is timing. It doesn't change my confidence in the fact that a pragmatic solution will be found with the Danish state. You're discussing timing. My confidence remains intact.

The next question is from the line of Mathias Nielsen from Nordea.

Congratulations on the strong start to the year. So my question is coming back to a topic we have discussed over the past quarters a few times. So the 2027 targets, I know the world is a bit volatile at the moment. But when you look out the window, even consensus is now above the top of the guidance range. So my question is more related to like do you see anything that could -- could maybe end in the low end of the range? And related to that, have you identified or seen any signs so far from the Middle East conflict that has hit any supply chain disruption or something like that? Have you already experienced something? I know it might be only in a small part of your business, but have you seen some signs already of things that has changed so far?

So first of all, thanks, Mathias, for those 2 questions, I believe it was, to be honest. But let me try and answer them both. So on the first, whether that's around our 2027 targets. And I appreciate the question, and I appreciate your ambition on our behalf. I think it comes from the fact that we've had a very strong 2025. We've had a very strong start to 2026. I will say we are only 5 quarters into the new strategy period going for a 3-year period. It is still too early to conclude on 2027 at this stage.

And you're alluding to also a topic that is high on our radar. Geopolitical tensions are rising. There are disturbances in the Middle East, and there are early signs of some rising inflation, for instance, within oil, which lowers our visibility, of course, not just us, but the whole industry and all industries. We are happy that we have reported strong developments in 2025. When you adjust that for our, let's call it, tailwind on large and weather, we're actually bang on where we said we would be for 2025. So we will stick to our 2027 targets, and I don't see any reason why we should change them either going up or going down at this point.

To your second part of your question, which is around the Middle East, I think I just want to state a few things on that, that is relevant to pinpoint. So if you look at it from an asset mix point of view, I think maybe I'll pass it on to you in a second, Allan, you can talk to that in a second.

But so far, our conservative asset mix has been helpful. That's one way the Middle East can affect us. Very immediate term, the Middle East has an impact on travel claims. So we have helped a lot of customers already in Q1 on traveling to the Middle East being in the Middle East or traveling through the Middle East. We've helped more than 11,000 customers. So we've been busy on the phones, but it's very manageable from a financial point of view. So that's not something for you to worry about. That's more an operational issue than a financial issues so far and even going into Q1 -- Q2.

The second part where the Middle East can have an impact on our business is, of course, around inflation, should this materialize in inflation. And just a couple of thoughts on that. The areas where the Middle East could affect us or the tensions in the Middle East is inflation driven by transportation, oil and energy. The areas in our book where we see the most impact would be on motor spare parts and building materials. For motors, 60% of our claims costs are related to goods. For building materials, it's around -- for property, it's 35% that is related to goods. So that's where we would see sort of a midterm inflation impact. The good thing is we will see a delayed impact on our business due to fixed price procurement agreements that will sort of prolong any impact, first of all.

Second of all, and this -- I need to be very clear also, if inflation outlook changes for us, we will price accordingly. And of course, we are following the situation very closely, and we will, as always, take the pricing actions needed should this become necessary. And I can clarify one thing in no scenario we see -- in no scenario we see, we see our 2027 targets becoming under jeopardy.

That was very clear. The only counterargument I have, like, I think both interest rates and currency levels have moved a bit in a favorable direction since December '24. So I guess that could be the changing thing why you should upgrade your target at some point. But I will leave that for you to think about until the next quarter.

The next question is from the line of Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

I have a question around your sort of underlying claims ratio. And just basically trying to understand how that would evolve over the next year. So, a couple of things there. So one is obviously you have said claims inflation. We're hearing claims inflation within the Scandinavian region is coming down. As a result, let's say pricing would come down a little bit.

So now when I look forward to the next 12 months, I'm just trying to think whether the earn-through or the improvement in the claims ratio could be at the same level as we've seen in this quarter? Or do you think a more fair level could be something like what we've seen in 2025, simply because the pricing is sort of behind us? That's my first question, and I can come back with the second question a bit later.

Thank you very much for that question. So I think if I tried to sort of unwrap this in a couple of different ways. I mean, first of all, we are very pleased around the underlying development and the improvement that we see in the quarter of 40 basis points. And just reiterating that, that's coming from Personal lines and in particular, from Norway. And obviously, there is an earnings impact on this from the initiatives that we put through in 2025, again, most notably in Norway. And I mean, right now, we are pricing lower than we did in 2025, but still ahead of inflation. So you're right in the fact that there will be an earnings impact on this going forward.

With the disclaimer that Johan just mentioned relative to Middle East, that we will price for, et cetera, if that happens. But overall, this is also a balancing act of igniting more commercial initiatives, most notably in Sweden, where we will see -- we'll see a marginally higher call, which is very much in line with our plans, where we balance growth and the underlying improvement.

Got it. And then I had a second question in line of just following from something you said about pricing in line with inflation. So I remember in the past, you have alluded to sort of your top line is going to be 1/3 pricing, 1/3 volume and 1/3 upselling, cross-selling. Now there, I just wanted to understand if currently, you're growing at 3.5% on a constant currency basis, which is potentially in line with the claims inflation. So then I'm just trying to understand where do the cross-selling, upselling and the volume piece sort of fit in? Or do you expect that to sort of come in maybe later half of this year or even in '27? Because it just feels like you have -- currently, your top line is growing just in line with inflation.

And if I start and then I'll give it over to you, Johan as well. I mean, first of all, I'd just like to emphasize that we are pricing ahead of inflation, just to make that clear. Sorry, if that wasn't perfectly clear before. So we are pricing ahead of inflation. And again, it's in particular in Norway, where we are slightly ahead. And then like you said, we are expecting a more balanced growth going forward from price increases coming down and then having a more balanced approach with these 3 elements that you just mentioned.

I agree, Mikael. If I could just add to that, if we sort of zoom out a bit, profitable growth has always been and will remain our primary focus. I think that's very important, and we are pleased to see, and that's something we see that you don't necessarily see. We are starting to see a better balance with growth being less driven by price than in the past. That's not obvious to everybody externally, but internally, we are seeing that movement. But to be fair, organic growth does take a bit longer to materialize than price-driven growth and we are not in a hurry to grow. We'd rather grow in a very sustainable, healthy manner, and that's what we feel we are doing. We don't see anything in our growth numbers now that is off our expectations. We don't see anything that gives us cause for concern.

Got it. I have a couple of more questions, but I'll just rejoin the queue.

The next question is from the line of Martin Birk from SEB.

Johan, just out of curiosity, since your annual report, you have now classified this as a contingent liability. And by the way, you are the only insurance company in the Nordics that are classifying this workers' comp case as a contingent liability at least directly in the notes. What has changed over these past 2 months?

So thanks for that question. I think, I was trying to be very clear upfront that we don't have anything more to add to this. I can just reiterate. We believe the ruling will be favorable to the industry and Tryg. If it ends up adverse for the sector, we are confident that our pragmatic solution will be found. And in the very, very unlikely event that this case affects Tryg reserves, we do not see it significantly affecting our solvency position. I cannot speak for my competitors. That's all I have to say.

I'm not asking about that. I'm asking about why this is now all of a sudden a contingent liability when it wasn't 2 months ago?

Nothing has changed.

And I can just add that the note was general before. So there was that note before. We just added the word of workers' comp now because there's so much discussion. But the note was there in the previous quarter -- from last year as well. It was referred in a general basis. Just to be clear.

So nothing has changed from our view.

And the next question is from the line of Michele Ballatore from KBW.

Yes. So my question is more related to the growth, let's say, initiatives. I mean now that, let's say, pricing is less of a tailwind if we look at the growth in top line earnings and everything. Can you remind us the key growth initiatives you're putting in place, especially in Sweden, where, of course, the underwriting profitability is significantly better than the other geographies?

Thanks for that question. And I think it's a very important topic, the growth component. And I can -- and you're rightly saying that pricing is as it looks right now tapering off, and we need the commercial engines up and running. We are confident that we have sufficient commercial activities launched in the market. If we assume -- we have actually launched more than 20 different activities that will drive growth and loyalty in the markets over the coming quarters.

Specifically to your question around Sweden, I think it's important to mention the fact that we have entered in, just to give you an example, we've launched more than 10 different motor partnerships in Sweden last year. That will increase our sales into motor with more than SEK 130 million this year. That is part of the initiatives that will drive growth, both on the top line and pricing, but also from an inflow of new customers. So there's plenty of organic initiatives that will drive organic growth. But as I said, and I think you, of course, know this, right, organic growth takes a bit longer that time to materialize than the price-driven growth. So our plan is -- and we are currently following plan is for these organic initiatives to take over as pricing tapers off.

So we can assume that, let's say, the bulk of these growth initiatives will probably be something related to the next strategic phase rather than this strategic phase?

No. I must say I believe that we will see the impact of these Commercial activities gradually coming into the numbers as we go through the year. Don't expect things to change dramatically overnight. That's not how we operate. But you should see the -- we are expecting the Commercial initiatives to kick in gradually as we go.

The next question is from the line of Nadia Claressa from JPMorgan.

I just had a quick one for me, more to clarify perhaps on the comment earlier that you are pricing ahead of inflation. Could you maybe elaborate more on the pricing versus inflation trends across each of the 3 markets? I mean, I understand that in Norway, it's still ahead. But from memory, for example, in Denmark, I believe the messaging was, for example, that 9 out of the 10 customers are not getting price increases above inflation. So any further elaboration on that would be helpful.

Absolutely. So if we go through the pricing a bit more on the individual country perspective, I mean you're right to say, first, we state that we are pricing somewhat ahead of inflation still, although that it's at a lower level than in 2025. And if I sort of unpick that into the different regions, you're quite right that Norway is where we are pricing the highest in this. It's also the country where we see the highest inflation in -- sorry, if we compare across the Scandi region. But nevertheless, still sort of a bit higher than the Norwegian inflation. Sweden and Denmark is a bit more balanced and right, like you referred to in the -- in your note of the indexation part, but we are pricing also in these countries pretty much on inflation or just a tad above.

Okay. And Norway, if I could, I mean, is mid- to high single digits still the right indicator of roughly where pricing is at the moment?

I think you should read into it that, that we are pricing a couple of percentage points ahead of inflation in Norway as we speak. And the inflation in Norway is a couple of percentage points or 1 or 2 percentage points higher than in the rest of Scandinavia.

[Operator Instructions] And with that, we'll pick up again Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

So the other 2 questions I had. One was just trying to unpack your market shares. So just looking at the slides that you provide at the end of the deck, this quarter versus last quarter, it appears that you have lost a little bit of share in Denmark and Sweden. But I was hoping you could sort of unpack that potentially, where is it coming from? And I appreciate there's some rounding in there. So to what extent is that sort of ignorable? That's the first question.

And second question was just on the reserve release. So obviously, we have your guidance of 2%. But it feels like for a few quarters now, you have been ahead of that. So just trying to understand the driver of reserve release at least in this quarter, which is somewhat higher than what we've seen in the recent past and how we should probably think of it going forward?

Vash, this is Gianandrea. I can take easily the first question. There is an around sign in our background slide in the investor presentation. I think it said around 17% at Q4, and it's around 16% now. So one should be a little bit careful to draw conclusion precisely because there is an around sign. I think the market share fall in Denmark, if I remember correctly, it's around 40, 50 bps that is statistical variation in data coming from the Danish Insurance Association. This is not an issue for us and a similar thinking valid for Sweden.

And I'll give the word to Allan.

And on the second question, I mean, we have continued our very conservative reserving practice for many years now. And our reserving strength remains very strong. And you should expect some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter in terms of run-offs and not as such any trend over from this quarter. And we stick to the guidance that we have given to the market that we will print around 2 percentage points for this strategy period.

But are you able to share with us what was the driver in this quarter?

I mean, there's no such special things this quarter. I mean, it is -- then you should expect some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter. I mean, 2.5%, 2.3%, we print around 2%, and you should expect that to be continued towards '27.

The next question is from the line of Qian Lu from UBS.

It's Qian Lu from UBS. Just a quick one on the SCR bridge. So business evolution appears to be a capital release rather than a drag, which feels a bit counterintuitive given growth. Could you please talk through the main drivers behind this, please?

Yes. And yes, thank you so much. And you're right, we have a positive development in the SCR bridge. It is relatively small movements, just to make that clear. And it's pretty much driven by the higher interest rates resulting in lower claims reserves. So that is the read over from this one. You should expect also going forward that growing the business also means that we need to grow the capital requirement linked to it going forward. But in this particular quarter, we have relatively small movements linked to the interest rate movements.

The next question is from the line of Vinit Malhotra from Mediobanca.

Yes. So my one question will be on Slide 24, please. And the growth topic. Just looking a little bit. I mean, maybe it's minor coincidence that both second and third pillar have a Commercial product initiative. And just, obviously, I don't want to read too much into it, but I know Private lines growing 5% is great. But is it some thinking that maybe you might lean a bit more on the Commercial lines to produce some offsetting some growth more? Or is that too much to read, but just a little bit more thoughts on that business mix as we keep talking about quality of growth. So just a little thought on that would be very helpful.

Thanks a lot, Vinit, for that question. And I don't think you're reading too much into it. As we said initially, the growth in the Private segment was around 5%, a little bit up from the full year growth last year, which was 4.7%. Within Commercial, growth was in positive territory within the SMEs, but negative around the corporate space. That is also why we are over-indexing right now on growth initiatives, not just in Private lines but also in Commercial lines. So a few specific initiatives, we mentioned one here for Commercial Denmark around being the preferred insurer in agriculture. That will be a growth engine in Denmark. We are also launching initiatives.

As I mentioned before, we have more than 20 Commercial initiatives. One of them is on the online distribution in Commercial lines in Sweden. And the third one, just to mention here would be a focus on housing associations in Norway. So there is a broad range of different growth initiatives. And you're right, also, as you are highlighting, we are targeting some of them into the Commercial space also.

The next question is from the line of Mathias Nielsen from Nordea.

It's more of a technical one maybe, but could you please put a few words on like the discounting impact going forward? Like now it was 2.4% this quarter, and at Fortune, at least, I heard it something like it was an average over the quarter. So given where interest rate expectations are at the moment, like how should we think about the discounting impact in the rest of the year? Could you maybe say a few words on the mechanism there? So it will be easier for us to understand.

Yes. Mathias, I mean, as a starting point, as Mikael was mentioning, it is a combination of interest rate curves and the claims mix that is underneath. And you're right that we are printing 2.4% in this quarter. We also did that in the last quarter. I mean, it's -- some volatility out there in the interest rate curves at the moment. I think that we have been very precisely describing this in our reports that I mean, higher discounting of insurance liabilities. I mean, the normal rule of thumb of this is that if you take a 100 bps parallel shift to the yield curve, that will correspond to a 100 bps impact on the group combined ratio.

So that is the overall guidance so to speak. And what we have seen lately is a movement in the short part of the curve. And I mean, the biggest impact, you will see that from the more longer tail of the business, so to speak, coming back to the claims mix. So it is hard to predict the coming quarters.

Sure. So when I think about it, like I think it's about it being slightly up the discounting impact in the coming quarters, but not much. Is that a fair assumption given what you're also seeing like that short rate, yes, have moved up, but not the really short rates like it being the 1- to 5-year yield has basically moved, but not the 3 months. Is that a fair assumption that it's going to be -- it is going to be minor, but small tailwind unless the long end of the curve also moves up. Is that a fair way to think of it?

Exactly, I mean, all else being equal, and as of today, I mean, I fully agree.

And the next question is from Asbjørn Mørk from Danske Bank.

One follow-up question from me as well. Looking at the underlying improvement in the 40 basis points that you print for this quarter, so the second order derivative obviously improving. If I look at the mix, it seems to be quite a solid improvement both for Private and for the Commercial business and considering the sort of stability and predictability you like as a company. I was just wondering when I look at consensus, consensus expects 30 basis points improvement for the full year '26 and only 10 basis points for '27 and '28. Are you seeing anything out there leaving aside the short-term impacts from the Middle East and how that could spur into inflation. But is there any reason to expect the 40 basis points to deteriorate from here for the rest of the year and into next year? Would you be satisfied with 10 basis points improvement in '27 given where we are today?

Thanks for that question, Asbjørn. And I think I'll start with the very sort of boring part of my answer, and that is to say that we expect the underlying claims ratio to be stable to slightly improving. I think if I sort of elaborate a little bit on that, I mean, as we said before, we are pricing somewhat ahead of inflation soon. We have priced in 2025 significantly ahead of inflation in Norway. So we do expect an earnings impact of that.

And then obviously, you can come into different parts of sort of saying Middle East inflation, sort of, increases. But very much as Johan was mentioning before, that is something that affects part of the portfolio, not the entire portfolio. And it's also something that we have procurement initiatives towards and we'll price for accordingly if something happens. So I hope that sort of gives a little bit sort of more meat on the bone on sort of what we expect and how we see underlying going forward.

Well, I guess that means if I look at the -- if you go back a few years, your improvement was driven basically by the Commercial business and you had the issues in Private. Now both your businesses are improving and it seems to be quite structural, you're repricing above claims inflation. So why should we end up at around 10 basis points improvement in '27? Wouldn't you expect something more than that given the -- unless you get some very unfavorable inflation hit from the Middle East situation?

So Asbjørn, just on that point, with the risk of sounding depressive or crashing the party, right, 10 bps up and down, of course, we are happy to see an improvement with 40 bps, but the difference between 30 and 40 or between 40 and 50 is very minor if you look at in absolute terms. So I don't think you should read too much into a 10 bps up or down in that sense. Although we are, of course, happy to see that all our repricing, all our streamlining of the book and all the efficiencies we are taking out is actually paying off on the underlying. But I wouldn't read too much into whether it's 10 bps up or down.

No, no, I fully agree. I'm just thinking if you should improve your underlying by 30, 40 basis points next year and not the 10 basis points that consensus is expecting, then it becomes quite meaningful. And I just can't see why it would only be 10 basis points next year, considering what you're repricing right now and how confident you seem to be that you're repricing above claims inflation.

But I don't think we want to comment and guide specifically on the underlying. What we can say is that coming out of Q1, we have a very, very strong position on our ability to earn. So we are in a very strong position right now, but we're not guiding on underlying in the next few quarters. We've never done. I think, Mikael started off exactly where I want to finish off. We have a slightly -- stable to slightly improving, and that's sort of what we stick to.

The next question is from the line of Martin Birk from SEB.

Just maybe following up on your Commercial premium growth. As you also previously said that you're seeing growth within SME and then sort of the whole corporate book is still a drag on total growth. Where do you actually want to be in this sort of on a reported basis for the Commercial division in terms of Premium growth.

I don't think we have a specific target on growth because the second, we, as a group, set a specific target on growth on corporate, we will get into trouble. So we will do the renewals as we go through it. We will price accordingly. And when we -- at this particular 1st of January renewal, when we exit certain corporate clients. That's because the underwriting and the willingness to pay doesn't match. So that's how we want to guide on this.

I think fundamentally, it is true that in our -- we have a 60% -- more than 60% Private book. Our Commercial lines is around 30%. Our corporate is a small component of that. And that means that we will see a big impact when large corporate clients do exit or enter. So I don't think -- we don't get hung up on the quarterly growth numbers. We just, of course, communicate them to you, but we don't want to run our business on quarterly growth.

How much is left of sort of the old corporate book pruning?

We have alluded to previously around 6%, and that's still the case.

Yes, there are no further questions. I'll hand it back to speakers for any closing remarks.

Thank you, everybody, for all the questions. It's always the Investor Relations team here at Tryg, is available for any follow-up. Otherwise, I'm sure we will see you around the next few days. Thanks a lot again.

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Financial Reporting at Tryg. We published our full year figures earlier this morning, and I have here with me Johan Brammer, our Group CEO; Allan Thaysen, our Group CFO; and Mikael Karrsten, our Group CTO, to present the report. And with these words, over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Gian, and good morning from me as well. This is a good day, and I'll ask you to go to the financial highlights, the first slide of the deck. Tryg is today reporting an insurance service result of DKK 1.918 billion in Q4, driven by an excellent combined ratio of 81.4%. The result is delivered through a top line growth of 4.1%, driven by increased commercial activities as well as profitability measures, especially in Norway. In addition, and this is important, the result is also helped by a favorable large and weather claims experience despite the storm Amy in Norway. This is an example of the benefit we get from being a well-diversified company with 3 strong market positions across Scandinavia.

The underlying performance continues to develop positively, much in line with recent quarters. And more specifically, the underlying claims ratio improved with 30 basis points for both the group and for the Private segment in Q4.

The investment result is DKK 171 million, helped by good returns on the free, but also especially the match portfolio. And more importantly, as flagged in the Q3 report, we divested more than DKK 500 million extra properties in Q4, and we can today report that our property exposure is down to DKK 2.3 billion, down by DKK 1 billion from the end of 2024.

To sum it up, the pretax result is just above DKK 1.7 billion. The return on own funds for the quarter is just below 37%, and we are paying a quarterly dividend of DKK 2.05 per share, in line, of course, with the previous quarters in 2024. In addition, and this is also important, we are today launching a buyback of DKK 1 billion on the back of a set of very robust full year numbers and a very comfortable solvency position. The solvency ratio at year-end is 196% already deducting the dividends and the announced buyback. However, please remember that the solvency ratio of 196% is elevated by 3 points due to the temporary debt financing impact that will disappear in Q1.

With that, let's move to the next slide on customer highlights. As you know, we have a target of 83 set for next year 2027, and we are pleased that by Q4 last year, we were already at 82 as customer satisfaction is and remains paramount for an insurance company, especially in volatile times like the current ones. The recent improvement in our numbers come primarily from our online customer touch points. And in addition, the rollout of a new payment solution in Commercial Sweden has been supportive of the higher customer satisfaction in that particular segment.

With that, let's turn to the next slide where we show the group ISR split by segment. And as always, the reported figures may be impacted by volatile items such as large and weather claims and the general runoff pattern, of course. The Private segment shows a higher ISR driven by growth in premiums and improved underlying performance and lower weather claims. And within Private, we note a particularly strong performance in Norway, which we'll return to later in this presentation. As for the Commercial segment, it shows an ISR that is slightly higher, driven by moderate premiums growth and improved underlying performance, however, partly offset by a modestly lower runoff.

With that, let's turn to the next slide, where we illustrate the ISR performance by geography. The Danish combined ratio is worsened by approximately 400 basis points, driving a lower ISR naturally. The underlying performance is actually very stable as the Q4 numbers are impacted by 2 discrete issues. Firstly, half of the deterioration in the combined ratio comes from a spike in the quarterly expenses due to periodization of higher IT development costs. Secondly, a number of large claims also impacts the Danish combined ratio. When adjusting for these factors, the performance is broadly stable and gives absolutely no cause for concern, 0. And to reinforce this point, the full year combined ratio for the Danish business in 2025 is 82.4% against 81.8% in 2024 on more than DKK 18 billion of revenues. That is stable indeed.

As for Norway, we are presenting for Q4 a sharp improvement, even including the storm Amy. And we are obviously very satisfied to see that our profitability efforts in our Norwegian business are paying off. And when it comes to Sweden, we continue to report very robust figures despite slight impact from the storm Johannes. In general, the business due to its premiums mix and due to its large PA book is less sensitive to potential winter and summer profitability swings.

As usual, on the right-hand side, we are showing the group ISR walk, and I am very pleased to see that the walk is characterized predominantly by a number of positive and green categories, while the only negative drags are the slightly lower runoff in a quarter where reported insurance earnings are very strong and the modestly higher cost due to primarily the periodization I mentioned before.

With that, we are now moving into the first slide in the revenue growth section. Tryg is reporting a growth of 4.1%, primarily driven by the Private segment that grows more than 5%, while the growth in the Commercial segment is more muted. It is worth noting that the growth year-on-year on a group level is up from 3.6% in Q4 2024. It's also important to remember that our key focus since mid-'22 has been to protect margins in order to mitigate the sudden and large inflation hike. And for 2025, price increases were predominantly focused towards our Norwegian business, where we had to improve profitability significantly. We're now entering 2026 in a very robust position, and therefore, we are shifting our efforts towards more commercial activities that will improve our top line in a profitable manner in the longer term. As mentioned before, we strive towards a sustainable and balanced development driven by both pricing, upselling and cross-selling.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on customer retention. In general, we observed flattish to slightly improving retention levels in the Private segment, while these are slightly deteriorating in the Commercial segment still. We are, in particular, pleased to see retention levels stabilizing in Private Denmark as this segment represents around 30% of group revenues. In general, after a period of price increases as we've been through, it's natural to experience a small drop in retention. And as we are now seeing the trend stabilizing or even slightly improving in the Private segment, we do expect a similar bounce back in the Commercial segment going forward. We are very focused on our customer offering and value proposition, and this focus will increase further during 2026 to ensure customer loyalty going forward.

With that, let's turn to the next slide where we comment specifically on Norway as we have done for the last few quarters. We are reporting a combined ratio for Q4 Norway of 87.1%, while the full year number is 86.8%. It is obvious that 2025 has seen more benign weather in Norway compared to 2024, which is, of course, supportive of the result. But in general, our underlying performance has improved significantly and clearly. In general, due to the mix of our Norwegian business with 40% being motor and due to selected important partner agreements, we believe a sustainable combined ratio in the mid-80s will serve us well in Norway. This is broadly speaking, where we expect to be in 2027 and longer term. I'll wrap up this slide on Norway by reminding you that the combined ratio by quarter in Norway will always be more volatile due to the weather patterns in the country and the often harsh winter weather.

And with that, I'll turn it over to you, Mikael.

Thanks, Johan, and good morning from me as well. As per the past quarters, we report an improved underlying claims ratio for the group and the Private segment of 30 basis points. The improvement mainly stems from the development in our Norwegian operations, where restoring profitability is one of our key priorities. As Johan stated, we have taken significant steps in that journey, and we are very comfortable around future profitability levels. The development remains very anchored to what we communicated at the Capital Markets Day at the end of 2024, where we stated that the underlying claims ratio is expected to be broadly stable to slightly improving towards 2027.

Turning to Page 14, where we, as normal, show you the quarterly development of large and weather claims, discounting levels and runoffs. From a large claim perspective, Q4 saw large claims coming in at DKK 150 million, below our quarterly guided level of DKK 200 million. It's, of course, good to see that large claims for a second year in a row in total is below our expected annual levels, but large claims is a volatile item. And over time, we expect it to fluctuate around the DKK 800 million.

Weather claims summed up to be DKK 174 million, below our guided Q4 level of DKK 240 million. This is despite the weather events Amy hitting Norway in October and Johannes hitting Sweden and Norway in the end of December. Apart from these events, the quarter was favorable and the DKK 174 million weather claims also included a small positive adjustment to weather events earlier in the year. I remind everyone that we expect seasonal weather event patterns where, in particular, Q4 and Q1 are the quarters with the highest weather exposure. We are naturally also happy to see the full year weather claims coming in below our annual guided level after 2 years of being above. But similar to large claims, this is a stochastic element where some volatility is to be expected.

Regarding the discount rate, this was stable at 2.4%, in line with the Q3 level. Please remember that the discount rate is a function of the interest rate environment, but also the claims mix of our business. Both of these factors impact the discount rate. Finally, the runoff result was 2.1% in a benign quarter in terms of large and weather claims experience. We have stated at our Capital Markets Day that we expect a runoff result around 2% towards 2027, and this remains very firm.

And with this, I hand it over to you, Gian.

Thanks, Mikael. We will now be commenting on the investment activities. Total invested assets were DKK 59 billion at the end of the year, of which DKK 45 billion were the match portfolio, nearly entirely invested in Scandinavian covered bonds, while the free portfolio, it's around DKK 14 billion, of which DKK 2.3 billion were properties. The match portfolio is virtually unchanged from Q3, while properties were down DKK 500 million, as mentioned by Johan at the beginning of the call. And we're very pleased to see properties overall, the exposure reduced by DKK 1 billion during the year from DKK 3.3 billion to DKK 2.3 billion.

In the second slide of the investment activities, we comment on the actual investment result in the quarter, which was a nice DKK 171 million above normalized expectations. The good result was driven by the match portfolio, where in addition to the interest earning premium provisions, narrowing covered bond spreads helped the performance. Also, other financial income and expenses were better than normal and minus DKK 47 million. It's important to remember that Q4 last year was a little bit of a mixed quarter, primarily driven by the sale of risky assets, chiefly equities and corporate bonds. We are very pleased to show progress on the sale of real estate, will ensure earnings stability and release of capital.

And with this, over to you, Allan.

Thanks, Gian. Now let's move into the solvency and expenses section. This first slide shows details on our solvency position as per end of the quarter. Tryg reports a solvency ratio of 196%. As this number includes a temporary uplift of 3 percentage points from the refinancing of the Tier 1 loan in the autumn, the solvency ratio will be 193% at the end of Q1 2026, all else being equal. As a reminder, the current solvency ratio of 196% already includes the dividend payment for the quarter and today's announcement of a DKK 1 billion share buyback. As per past quarters, the capital generation remains very strong. Own funds movements are primarily reflecting operating earnings and capital distribution, while the fall in the solvency capital requirement is primarily explained by the lower properties exposure and by a few minor changes in our partial internal model.

As mentioned multiple times before, the solvency ratio is expected to gravitate towards a less conservative level long term, but we will do so in a controlled manner as opposed to larger movements. And finally, I also want to reiterate that we expect to continue our year-end assessment of our solvency position also going forward.

Now please turn to the next slide. Here you can see the historical development of our solvency ratio. It is evident that the solvency position has been more robust recently compared to the beginning of the period. A turbulent macroeconomic environment with a sudden return of inflation and a volatile environment called for an additional layer of conservatism that we believe has served us well. As mentioned in the previous slide, we will continue to work on our capital position to ensure efficiency and to meet our ambitious return on own funds target.

Now please turn to the next slide for updated solvency sensitivities. Solvency sensitivities are broadly unchanged since last quarter. Our biggest sensitivity is and will always be the one towards covered bonds as this is our chosen asset class and represents the vast majority of our investments. It's also important to remember that we primarily invest in AAA-rated covered bonds, and therefore, a 100 basis point sensitivity is a very conservative assumption. Please note that the sensitivity towards Swedish crown has been slightly reduced following our recent refinancing of subordinated capital. The sensitivity to interest rate movement remains very low, taking into consideration our matching strategy and generally low sensitivities across the board due to our strong and hedged balance sheet. In a time of high volatility in capital markets, we are pleased about our very low risk asset allocation, which results in modest solvency sensitivities.

And now let's move to the expense ratio development. The expense ratio was 13.6% for Q4 and 13.4% for the full year. There are some minor periodization effects in Q4, but in general, we believe the full year figure is completely aligned with our guidance towards 2027 of a stable to slightly improving expense ratio. It is important to remember that while we continue to improve our efficiency, we are also keen to reinvest in commercial activities to keep a good balance and continue to grow long term. These are the overall drivers behind the development of the expense ratio. We continue to have a strong belief that the low expense ratio is a key competitive advantage for us, and we will remain very focused on this.

Finally, I will comment on the reduced number of employees, which is primarily a function of our expanded agreement with TCS announced during the autumn. And with this, I will hand it over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Allan, and thanks for that rundown. And with that, I will take you to the final part of our presentation on strategy and financial targets. And on the first slide in this section, I am showing you a recap of our 3 strategic pillars and the impact that each of them will have on our financial targets in 2027. And we are pleased to report, as you can see on the dials on top that we assess the implementation of most of the strategic initiatives to be either on plan or ahead of plan. This gives us a lot of comfort for what lies ahead of us. And I will now unfold each of the 3 pillars in the next few slides. As for the first on the next slide on scale and simplicity, it is clearly the most important strategic pillar in terms of financial impact.

Within this pillar, we announced at Q3 an expansion of our partnership with TCS to simplify and modernize our IT landscape. We are very pleased with the progress so far and the handover is progressing according to plan. This has allowed us to streamline our IT operation and focus on the more customer-oriented IT systems. In Q4, as an example, we've started to implement and we are already now actively using a new contact center solution called Puzzel, which when fully implemented across the group will handle the 12 million calls we have with our customers every year. With Puzzel, we'll be replacing 3 contact center systems and 5 supporting systems, a total of 18 with shared contact center system across the group, thus realizing cost synergies. Also, on top of efficiencies, we're also now starting to see the positive effects of the unified systems, including improved customer experience, lower average handling time and a more simple and more intuitive platform for our employees.

As for technical excellence on the next slide, profitability in Norway has improved significantly, driven by better tools, driven by smarter pricing and driven by a more data-driven approach. As for the new underwriting platform we've discussed before, it enables more precise and consistent risk selection and pricing. As for the scored loss model, it ensures smarter pricing by adjusting rates based on customer profitability, retaining good risks and pricing others more fairly. And as for the general rate increases, these have supported profitability gains, though we expect the pace of increases to moderate going forward. This is important because in addition to boosting profitability, these efforts have also laid the foundation for more prudent future growth in our Norwegian business. And lastly, I'd like to remind you all that with a combined ratio in the mid-80s, our Norwegian business contributes significantly to our group roof targets.

On the next slide, when we dive into customer and commercial excellence, we are on the next slide detailing additional levers that will serve to improve the commercial momentum in our Swedish operation. In Q4, I want to highlight the following 3 initiatives. On the left-hand side, we've launched a new and improved house insurance product, which has been very well received by customers with the largest package, which also includes a voluntary on-site risk inspection and prevention advice being ranked #1 by an independent consumer advisory bureau.

In the middle, we show how we've continued to increase the number of partnerships in the motor space. And as a result, we now expect the annual sales contribution from new motor partnerships to reach SEK 130 million. Lastly, on the right-hand side, we saw good progress in sales in Q4 through our Aktsam brand, increasing by some 20% in the quarter. This is helping us to gain market shares outside the bigger cities in Sweden.

That brings me to the next slide on the financial scorecard, where we show how the 2027 targets and illustrate how we are tracking towards them. It is very pleasing to see that we are tracking well towards all of our targets, both the financial and the strategic ones. We're demonstrating a market-leading profitability with very low earnings volatility, benefiting from our hedge position across 3 markets. In addition, we delivered a very attractive return on own funds in excess of 40% for the full year. Also important, we are on track to deliver, of course, on our target of returning DKK 17 billion to DKK 18 billion to our shareholders during the strategy period, made up by the ordinary dividend and the buyback of DKK 2 billion announced at the CMD back in December 2024. The DKK 1 billion of extraordinary buyback announced today is on top of that target and reinforces our constant focus on remunerating our shareholders.

And with that, let's turn to the next slide where we are essentially just summarizing the achievements in 2025, a year that has proven remarkable for us. To boil it down, we've had the strongest start of a new strategy period ever in Tryg. Norway is producing very robust earnings, while in Q4 2024, the combined ratio was above 100. That is long forgotten by now. And thirdly, we are now launching a new buyback of DKK 1 billion on the back of a strong set of results and a robust solvency position supportive of future capital returns.

And that brings me to our final slide in our presentation. You've seen it before. It's our traditional quote from Rockefeller. This should serve as a clear reminder to all of you on this call that we know our investment case, and we will not forget it. And with that, I think we are ready to move into Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Asbjørn Mørk from Danske Bank.

I'll limit myself to one question, and congratulations on the strong results. So basically, my question goes around sort of the fundamental improvements, not only the -- you can say Johan, you mentioned the strongest start to a strategy period to date. I think you mentioned quite a lot of things that are moving in the right direction. I think you said even that you are on plan or ahead of plan on all your items. Looking at the -- especially the Norwegian market, the very strong improvements we see there, how sustainable do you see those trends looking at the price initiatives that both you and your peers have done in Norway? I guess we should expect those to continue also during '26 and potentially into '27.

And if I adjust sort of for the for the lucky hands you've had during '25 on weather and large claims, but I do think that you are improving your underlying underwriting trends and also considering the retention elements, it seems like you are close to delivering on your '27 targets already in '26. And if we then expect further improvement going forward, I guess there is a likelihood that you could exceed your '27 targets. So I guess my question is really, do you sort of share that view? And is there any likelihood that sometime during the strategy period that you would revise your financial targets?

I'll start by addressing the question on Norway. So you're quite right. I mean, we're very pleased around our development in Norway. And if I just do sort of a quick sort of run-through of the numbers. So we're printing a combined ratio of 87% this year. Again, that is helped a little bit by luck, especially by volatile items like weather. Naturally, on top of that, we have been driving significant price increases throughout 2025. We will continue to see the earnings impact of those increases. For 2026, we are pricing significantly lower, but at the same time, significantly above the inflation. So obviously, we do expect that there will be continuous improvements throughout the rest of the strategy period, and we're very comfortable around reaching our mid-80s combined that we have communicated.

And then on that, Mig, if I could just go to your point, Asbjørn, around our targets for 2027. You're right saying that we are -- with the delivery today for 2025, we are at 7.9%. That is close to the range we guided for 2027, which is 8% to 8.4%. But when you adjust for some of the tailwind we're getting from large and weather, which is DKK 442 million, you actually bring it down on a normalized level around 7.5%, which is spot on where we expected to be and guided to be. So I think in that sense, there's still room for us to move. We still need to continue to improve the business. That being said, right, we are a confident management team here today. As you mentioned, we are ahead of the implementation of many of our initiatives in the strategy. So I couldn't ask for a better spot to be in right now in terms of the strategy execution. But we are 4 quarters into a 3-year plan. It's way too soon for us to revisit our targets.

But if I may then ask, Johan, so if we leave aside sort of the lucky hands you've had on weather and large claims, is there anywhere where your progression so far has been slower or less than you had expected/hoped for? Because it seems like, I guess you wouldn't have imagined that kind of repricing in Norway when you stood in December '24 and gave us the '27 targets. And I guess client retention is better than expected, now also the different, you can say, measures that you had in the end of the presentation on the different things that are more within your own control. So is there anything we should be aware of in terms of where we could see underlying deterioration?

I don't foresee any -- I don't have any concerns in terms of deterioration in the underlying at all. If you ask me what are the obstacles going forward, I mean, as you're rightly saying, we've seen a swing now in our customer retention in the private lines part of the business. So retention rates are improving. We're still waiting for that to happen also in the Commercial segment in the quarters to come. That's probably one thing I would like to see. And then in terms of any other obstacles, we have seen inflation across the board being a little bit more stubborn than expected. That's also why, as Mikael is saying, we are pricing ahead of inflation in Norway. But in all markets, we need to cater for inflation. I don't see any concerns in terms of me delivering on the underlying, no.

Next up is Mathias Nielsen from Nordea.

Congratulations on the strong start into the year last year. So my question is coming a bit back to the top line and like I'll try to limit myself to one question with more aspects of it. But the first one is like when we look at the pricing component like in Q1 '26 and compare it to Q4 '25, is there anything in particular that we should pay additional or extra awareness to in terms of the magnitude of price hikes and so on? And then related to that on the top line, maybe also a bit on the retention rates. As you mentioned, they look like they're improving a bit. But how is it actually when you look at the whole market, I guess the retention rates for all insurance companies must be a bit under pressure with price hikes. So like what is your perceived market share game out there? Like do you see yourself as now starting to be flat on market shares or taking a bit market shares again after having had a few quarters with market share loss? How do you see it yourself?

All right. So you're touching upon a few topics. Maybe I can start on the whole growth component. So we are reporting for Q4 a growth for the group of 4.1%. It's 5.3% for the Private segment. You're also sort of alluding to the composition of the growth because we are honestly coming out of a highly inflationary environment. We are quite content with the growth level we are seeing around 4%. If you ask me, and I think that's what you were trying to do in your question, sort of compare the composition of the growth if you go back some quarters, we are seeing as inflation tapers off, we're also seeing that pricing makes up a smaller and smaller part of our growth component. I think when you fast forward to the end of the strategy period, I think price will take up even less space of the growth than it does today, but we are seeing the trend moving. And as for retention, you're right, there are some specifics for all insurance companies that, of course, when there's a repricing that increases mobility in the market, I think that's a market dynamic. So I think you're spot on. I think you were also talking into sort of the repricing in terms of inflation. Mikael, I don't know if you want to touch that.

Yes. So just to be clear on pricing, and I think it's important to understand that we have 3 slightly different stories depending on country. So again, if I start with Norway, we are pricing clearly lower than what we did last year, but still we are significantly above the inflation level in the way we price going forward in Norway. When it comes to Denmark, we are pricing slightly ahead of inflation, and Sweden, we're pricing on inflation. So it's all dependent on the sort of market starting point and our commercial activities, et cetera, et cetera, in the markets.

Okay. So like just to my main question was basically just when you look at Q1, like the growth in Q4 was obviously helped by price hikes that was quite high in Norway over the past years. Like in Q1, should we expect the growth to take like a small hit in downward direction from the pricing element coming down? Or do you see yourself offsetting that by market share momentum coming up?

Are you asking about Q1 2026?

Yes.

I think I'll refrain from going into specifics around the quarter we're in today, but I understand your question also as to how much should we get hung up on a quarterly spike. I think honestly, I don't think we should get too hung up on the quarterly developments in our growth numbers. There will be stochastic swings in that. I think you should see in a more longer term, our growth components. It is -- it doesn't take a lot to swing the numbers. We are very pleased with how we're coming out of the first 2025 year, the first year of the strategy period. We are comfortable also coming into next year. So we are optimistic in terms of our growth. We are not hung up on any specific numbers. We are more interested in the quality and the composition of our growth, and we are very optimistic on that.

Our next question comes from the line of Martin Gregers Birk from SEB.

Perhaps coming -- or perhaps talking a little bit about capital. You reduced your underlying solvency capital ratio by 3 percentage points or so. Why -- and just trying to bridge that to your earlier comments about a gradual adaptation of your solvency ratio. I would assume that, that's -- I would -- I guess my question is, why isn't DKK 1.5 billion in share buybacks a better number in order to support you in walking the talk of a gradual adaptation of your solvency capital ratio?

Martin, thank you for your question here. Let's just start with the fact that we are very pleased to launch a DKK 1 billion share buyback today. With this, the solvency position is slightly less conservative than it was a year ago, which obviously means that this is a step in the right direction and fully in line with what we have been communicating that we expect the solvency position to gravitate towards a less conservative level in the longer term. And as stated several times before, we will do so in a controlled manner as opposed to larger movements. So it is in that light, you should see the DKK 1 billion that we have announced today.

But in all respects, I mean, at the current pace, it's going to take you 5 years to reach the 180 target, right?

Well, I'm not aware of which target you're alluding to here. I mean we don't have.

I'm alluding to the 180.

Okay. Well, but that's -- 180 million is your number. It's not a number that you have been hearing me communicating.

Martin, just if you take a step back, in the last 13 months, we've done a total of buybacks of DKK 3 billion, the DKK 2 billion we announced December 2024 and DKK 1 billion we announced today. I think that's a pretty significant shareholder remuneration. And of course, you're right. 1.5 is better than 1. But I think we are not here to win the race short term. We're here to win the race long term. I think we're in a good gradual journey in a controlled manner. That's who we are as a company.

But I guess, Johan, in all fairness, you also make a lot of money, right? And you do have peers that are pointing to a solvency ratio that is significantly below yours. And you also do have a -- in my thought a rather -- or you are rather straight on communicating that you want to pay out as much as you can. And when we then get the numbers, I guess it's also fair to say that you perhaps do not necessarily want to talk in this respect.

Martin, I totally get what you're saying, right? But I must say I fundamentally disagree. I remember in December 2024, we said that we had been living in a very unstable environment and that being a little bit conservative on our solvency has served us well. And we also said that when we saw the world stabilize, we would also gravitate more towards a less conservative level. Those were the words that came out of our mouth on December 2024. I think it's fair to say, if you look at the world in the last week or so, I think it's still serving us well to be prudent. You will see us come down to a less conservative level, and we are taking a step today. So I see your point right, and we can always discuss the speed, but we are moving in the right direction, exactly as we said 13 months ago.

Next up is Vash Gosalia from Goldman Sachs.

I just had one, and it's again a little bit on your top line growth. So just trying to understand, so in the past, you have basically said that you expect growth to be in the 4% to 7% historical range. But I was hoping that as we get closer to the end of the strategic period, your growth will accelerate. But based on what you've said today, essentially feels like your pricing is going to come off a little bit in Norway. In Sweden, you're in line with inflation and in Denmark, just a little bit ahead. So I'm struggling to see what might potentially be the levers as to -- I mean, what you could pull to actually grow faster. And it just sounds like your growth could taper off a little bit more from this point simply because pricing will now start to moderate. So if you could just help me understand how to really think of top line growth and the 4% to 7% historical range, that would be very helpful.

Thanks for that question. And maybe I'll just start here. So first of all, I think when you are operating in mature markets as we are at Tryg, most customers are already well insured. And when you are growing in a mature market, you need to have a very disciplined approach, especially in highly inflationary markets. So I must say, coming out of a very highly inflationary environment with a growth in the quarter of 4.1% gives me a lot of comfort. When you're alluding to sort of what is the growth going forward, I think I remember saying that historically, we had been between 4% to 7%, and we would aim to be in that range. For me, the importance is not where we are in that range, it's the quality of the growth we see. Growing in insurance is easy, growing in a profitable manner requires skill, and we want to do this very gradually.

As to your question, where is the growth going to come from? Just to give you a few examples, I think I alluded to some of them today. Yes, you're right that the pricing is coming slightly off in Norway, but still higher than inflation. What we are seeing is our retention levels in the private business is coming back. That is going to be fueling growth. What we are seeing, as I mentioned, we have made a number, I think, 12 motor agreements in Sweden in private lines. That's going to fuel the growth on motor in Sweden, which was part of our CMD targets. We are seeing cyber insurance growing between 15% and 25% across Scandinavia. We are seeing pregnancy insurance taken from Sweden growing in Denmark and Norway. So there's a number of growth pockets, and I'm very comfortable that we can deliver a strong profitable growth in the business. But for me, it's the quality of the growth that you guys should be observing on, not hung up on a decimal.

If I could kindly just follow up on that. So on the quality of growth, can you just maybe help us quantify a little bit as to if you had to accelerate your growth by 1 percentage point, how much would you potentially have to give away in margin? So just that we understand the trade-off a little bit better?

That's essentially trying to ask me to tell you the length of a rubber band. I mean if you go into the very exotic risk on a global property market, you can take whatever growth component you want and you can throw away as much profitability as you want to. We are a very disciplined player. We have shied away from a lot of the international corporate business. We are a retail-oriented player. It's very much an SME and private lines business where we are today. And in that market, it comes down to actually making prudent decisions on your risk, making prudent decision on your pricing. So I mean, I'm not in the market of trading top line with bottom line. That's not how I see it. I think the trick here, and that's what we are doing is to grow in a profitable manner. We don't want to have a very strong variance and now we are growing, now we're shrinking. I think we want to be stable. That's what you're seeing. That's because we have a prudent underwriting philosophy and a very prudent pricing methodology. It's not how we see it.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Qian Lu from UBS.

It's Qian Lu from UBS. Just a quick one on commercial. So retention rates and top line growth were still a bit soft in Q4. And you mentioned about churn of larger accounts. Could you please maybe give some color on the January renewals for Commercial and comment on the competitive dynamics across the countries and in different segments, i.e., SMEs and large accounts? And should we expect Commercial growth to recover to a more normalized level at mid-single digits?

Thanks for that question. And maybe I can start on your question on renewals. I would argue it's probably more a question that we should discuss when we report Q1. That being said, we are in an environment now where we see inflation tapering off compared to where it was just a year ago. And that also makes me quite optimistic as for the renewals, but I think we'll get back to the actual reporting on that as we report Q1. And as for the market dynamics, maybe, Mikael, you will say a few words.

Yes. So I think overall, we're very pleased around sort of our starting point when it comes to sort of all the different markets, Sweden, Norway, Denmark. As Johan was saying before, we are mainly an SME player, but obviously sort of also looking for specific pockets in the somewhat larger segment. And overall, we see that we have a very strong position and are comfortable that we can have profitable growth also in these segments going forward.

Our next question comes from the line of Vinit Malhotra from Mediobanca.

I hope you can hear me. So I'll try to put in 2 into one, sorry for that, but it is one. In Denmark, it's now the second quarter that there is some explanations that are being needed on the large losses or IT costs or -- and just curious whether is some of this coming from -- I mean, when you dig deeper, you're saying it's all -- everything is in line. Is some of this coming from some of your acquisitions? Or what do you think is driving that?

And the sort of half linked question to that is whatever you're seeing in Denmark or Sweden or Norway, is that giving you a bit more confidence from -- you talked about 7.5% underlying technical going towards 8.2%, let's say. Is that giving you a bit more confidence from these 4 quarters of this plan? Or is that giving you just the right confidence to achieve that step between 7.5% to 8.2%?

Thanks, Vinit, for that. And maybe I'll just start here. So you're right that we are coming out today with the Q4 with a few explanations as to why the combined for Denmark is up. I am full of confidence that there is nothing that you need to worry about in our Danish operation. In this particular quarter, it comes down to IT periodization and the fact that last year in that particular quarter, we had very little lost claims. So there is a good explanation. And I think you need to come back to the full year combined for Denmark, which comes to 82.4%. That's why I have very strong confidence in not just the 2025, but also into the 2027 numbers. There's nothing in our strategy execution or in our financial plan execution that gives me any concerns for our '27 targets. I'm full of confidence. I couldn't honestly have wished for a better position. We are very strong. We are solid, and we're now in a position where we can start to invest even more into the market to grow partnerships, to grow product categories, to cross and upsell. So I think being where we are after the last few years, I couldn't wish for a better position.

And could it mean that there is a bit more upside towards that? Or is it just -- because people are trying to understand because the buyback has just been in line and then the pressure from us -- from the market to us is can do you a little more on that target. So I'm just curious about that.

I think -- I mean, we are 4 quarters into a 3-year plan. I think it's way too soon to consider whether we are -- to consider our targets. As we mentioned initially, and I understand where you're coming from, but as I mentioned initially, we are -- we have a tailwind in 2025 of DKK 442 million on better large and weather. That is, of course, supporting our 2025 numbers. When you strip that out, we are exactly where we want to be in our plan and our execution. So we are very confident where we are, but it's way too soon to consider targets. We are 4 quarters in.

As no one else has lined up for questions, I'll now hand it back to the speakers for any closing remarks.

Thank you all for your very good questions and for listening to our call. As always, the IR team at Tryg is at your disposal today and the next few days. Otherwise, I'll thank you again and see you soon.

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Financial Reporting at Tryg. We published our Q3 figures earlier this morning, and I have here with me, Johan Brammer, our Group CEO; Allan Thaysen, our Group CFO; and Mikael Karrsten, our Group CTO, to present the figures.

And with this words, over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Gian, and good morning from me also this morning. I will, on the first slide, as always, start by commenting on the financial highlights for the quarter. And as you can see from the slide, we are reporting a premiums growth of 3.4%, which is, in fact, 4% when adjusting for a one-off booked in the corresponding quarter last year. The insurance service result landed at DKK 2.181 billion, which corresponds to a growth of 7% when normalizing large and weather events. The combined ratio was 78.6%, a very strong performance in a seasonally favorable quarter, and I am very pleased to see that all business segments and geographies reported a strong profitability development.

The group underlying claims ratio improved by 30 bps, which is in line with recent experience, but it is worth highlighting that the Private segment accelerated the positive development, improving also 30 bps against 20 basis points in the previous quarter. The investment result was solid, helped by both the free and the match portfolio. We'll get back to that. And even more importantly, we are showing a good traction on the sell-down of properties. To be more specific, we had DKK 3.3 billion of properties at Q2. We have DKK 2.9 billion now here at Q3. And in addition, we are flagging today that 2 new sales right after the reporting date are bringing us to DKK 2.4 billion in Q4. We continue to work, of course, hard on reducing our asset risk further into next year, in line with our promise at the Capital Market Day. And to wrap up this slide, we are paying a quarterly dividend of DKK 2.05 and report a robust solvency ratio of 204%, which is supportive, of course, of future capital repatriation.

With that, I'll move to the next slide on the customer highlights. And I'm pleased to report that after 3 quarters of our new strategy period towards 2027, we are reaching a customer satisfaction level of 82, which is midway between our baseline in 2024 and our targeted level of 83 at the completion of the strategy period in 2027. Customer satisfaction, as you know, remains absolutely paramount in our industry. And during 2025, we've actually launched several exciting STP, straight through processing, initiatives as an efficient and speedy claims handling process is a key driver of customer satisfaction. As an example, Claims Sweden has now enabled that certain claims are swiftly reimbursed with SWISH, a mobile banking app, so that customers receive their money in a fast and secure manner. And I'd also like to highlight that TryghedsGruppen has paid its member bonus in September amounting to 6% of premiums paid in 2024.

In the next slide, we show you the development of the insurance service result by our 2 segments, Private and Commercial. And as always, there are many moving parts impacting the reported number. And in addition, it's also important to remember the changed accounting practice due to the inflation hedge, which explains the difference between reported and restated in this chart. I would love to highlight that in the Private segment, especially in Norway, we see a continuous progress driven by profitability initiatives, which I'll comment on later on during this call. And as for the Commercial segment, it reported an excellent combined ratio of 73.7%, also driven by our strategic focus on SMEs and of course, also the reduction of the corporate book carried out during the previous strategy period.

With that, let's turn to the next slide on the group insurance service result, where we show the ISR development by geographies here. On a group level, the ISR of DKK 2.181 billion benefited primarily from premiums growth, improved underlying performance and a higher runoff results. These were partly offset by higher large and weather claims compared to last year. Normalizing the large and weather claims development, the ISR grew 7%, a strong uplift as illustrated at the bottom right. From a geographical perspective, we once again see a very strong Swedish performance, also helped by a higher runoff result. We see a Danish performance, which is slightly lower, weighed down by the July cloud burst across Denmark. And finally, we see a Norwegian performance that continues to show progress following the profitability actions that were initiated a couple of years ago. All in all, and this is important, very solid and robust ISR developments across the board.

We're now moving into the revenue development section, and our premiums growth was 3.4% in Q3 or more importantly, 4% when adjusting for a one-off included in Q3 last year. As always, most of the growth comes from the Private segment, which grew 4.7% adjusting for the previously mentioned one-off. During the last 2.5 years, we have worked in a disciplined manner to protect our margins in the most complicated period for our industry, following the return, as you all know, of sudden and high inflation. We believe this effort has proven successful as we are posting industry-leading margins. That being said, we have, of course, in parallel gradually reignited and accelerated commercial initiatives, aiming at improving our top line development starting next year and onwards. On that, we are starting to see positive signs in Private Sweden already.

It's always important to remember that growth can easily be achieved in our industry, but profitable growth is a different story, and we only seek the latter. Long term, our goal remains -- we've discussed this before, our goal remains to achieve a growth, which is carefully balanced between price increases, new customers and upselling to current customers.

And with that, let's turn to the next slide, where we are zooming in on our Norwegian performance. The combined ratio in Norway has improved more than 500 basis points accumulated for the first 9 months of 2025. Looking at Q3 in isolation, it's worthwhile to note that large and weather claims experience impacts the combined ratio comparisons, while on an underlying basis, the performance continues to improve significantly. Profitability initiatives are evidently working, improving, in particular, our motor and property performance. And it is perhaps worthwhile to remember that we are significantly overweighed on motor in Norway with more than 40% of our book coming from motor. While we are satisfied with the performance improvements, we are also mindful that Q4 is a more challenging quarter from a seasonal perspective. And in general, I want to stress, and this is also important that we acknowledge that we still have work to do to achieve a sustainable earnings level towards 2027.

I'll move to the next slide and comment on the retention levels, which remain broadly stable. As it is evident from this slide, retention is slightly down in Denmark, slightly up in Sweden, whereas Norway appears fairly stable. We've mentioned many times before that the current development, especially in Denmark is not surprising following a period characterized by significant price adjustments to fight off inflationary pressures. I can also add that the development in Private Denmark in this specific quarter is primarily driven by the technical adjustment impacting Q3 last year. Without this, the development is actually stabilizing and closer to flat. We have experienced similar developments before in situations similar to this. And as we move into 2026 and onwards, we are confident that the situation will stabilize.

And I guess with that, I will hand it over to you, Miki.

Thanks, Johan. And I will now comment on the development of the underlying claims ratio. On a group basis, the underlying claims ratio improved by 30 basis points, in line with previous quarters and primarily driven by the improvement in Norway. The private underlying claims ratio improved as well by 30 basis points, while it was 20 basis points in Q2. And as a reminder, the private segments represent almost 70% of group revenues. Initiatives in Norway and in particular, in Private Norway has been the primary driver of the improvement. At the Capital Markets Day in December 2024, we mentioned that we expect an underlying claims ratio to be stable to slightly improving towards 2027, and we'll reiterate that today.

And with that, we turn to the next slide. As always, in this slide, we comment on the development of the volatile items, large and weather claims, level of interest rates impacting the discounting as well and, of course, the runoff result. The quarter was favorable looking at the large and weather claims experience taken together. Large claims were well below the quarterly expectations of DKK 200 million, while weather claims were somewhat above the Q3 expectation of DKK 160 million. In general, the large and weather claims experience in 2025 has been fairly positive compared with the normalized expectations. The discount rate was unchanged compared to Q2, while the runoff result at 2.4% was broadly in line with the guidance of a runoff around 2% towards 2027.

And with that, I hand it over to you, Gian.

Thanks, Miki. I'm now in the first of the 2 slides of the investment activities. Total invested assets were DKK 59 billion, of which 3/4 is our match portfolio and 1/4 is the free portfolio. The asset mix is broadly unchanged with one noticeable difference. Our real estate exposure, as Johan mentioned at the start, was DKK 3.3 billion in Q2, was DKK 2.9 billion at Q3. And actually, we're flagging a level around DKK 2.4 billion at year-end following an additional sale right at the beginning of Q4. The lower properties exposure is completely in line with our promise from the CMD, where we announced we were exiting all risky assets to minimize earnings volatility, lower capital consumption and ultimately increasing the return on own funds.

Moving to the second slide. You can see that the overall investment return was DKK 177 million, helped by good free and match portfolio returns. Other financials was broadly in line with expectation. The match portfolio result was helped by the income on premiums provision and a general narrowing of covered bond spreads in all geographies. The free portfolio benefit from a good return from covered bonds, while the positive properties return included the sale of the properties in the quarter. In general, it was a satisfactory quarter for our investment activities, and we are particularly pleased about the property reduction shown in Q3 and flagged for the year-end as well.

And with this, over to you, Allan.

Thanks, Gian, and good morning from me as well. Please turn to the first page in the solvency and expenses section, where we are showing details on our solvency position as per end of the quarter. In this slide, we are highlighting a robust solvency ratio of 204%, which is up from 199% at the end of last quarter. Furthermore, we are highlighting a strong operating capital generation before dividend payment of 22% in Q3. As always, the difference between operating earnings and the dividend payment is the primary driver of the change in own funds. The recent and very successful Tier 2 issue in the beginning of October will be included in Q4, although this will not impact the overall solvency level as we have called back the old equivalent subordinated loan. The overall solvency capital requirement is up DKK 26 million in Q3, primarily driven by business growth and some small movements in currencies.

These movements are partially offset by the lower real estate exposure, ensuring a fall in the solvency capital requirement of DKK 45 million. Note that the further sale of real estate exposure in Q4 will provide additional relief in the solvency capital requirement of approximately DKK 50 million.

Now please turn to the next slide. In this slide, we are showing the historical development of the solvency ratio. We have mentioned multiple times that post the RSA Scandinavia acquisition, we have been operating at a higher level of solvency ratio compared to 4 years ago, where we were running our business at a level of around 175% to 180%. The return of sudden and high inflation and the following macroeconomic turbulence has been problematic for the industry, and therefore, we believe a higher level of solvency has served us well. As we mentioned at the Capital Market Day, our solvency ratio will gravitate towards a less conservative level long term. As promised, we will review our solvency position at year-end and at that time, consider extraordinary capital repatriation if found appropriate. Currently, many things are pointing in the right direction, and it's hard to stay pessimistic. As always, remember that we prefer a gradual approach, benefiting our shareholders with balanced actions.

And now please turn to the next slide, Slide 21. Solvency sensitivities are virtually unchanged since last quarter, and we generally have very low sensitivities following the asset derisking carried through during last autumn. In this quarter, we have further reduced the property sensitivity by selling approximately DKK 400 million of real estate and more will come in Q4 with the October sale of another approximately DKK 500 million. As always, the biggest sensitivity remains to covered bonds as this is by far our biggest single asset class. The sensitivity to interest rates movement is very low, taking our matching strategy into consideration and general low sensitivities across the board due to a strong and hedged balance sheet.

And now please turn to the next and last slide in this section for details on the expense ratio development. The expense ratio was 13.3% in the quarter, supported by a continued tight cost control in general. We continue to believe that the low expense ratio is a key competitive advantage for truck Tryg, and we remain very focused on this. The slight increase in the number of employees this quarter is driven by an increase in the customers' fronting activities, especially in private lines Denmark. And finally, please note that redundancies related to TCS agreement will only be included from the end of Q4.

And with this, I will hand it over to you, Johan.

Thanks a lot, Allan. And I will now take you to the next section on the strategic and financial targets. In the first slide, we are recapping our 2027 strategy and the 3 strategic pillars that underpin our financial targets and the ambition to grow the normalized ISR by DKK 1 billion from 2024 to 2027. When it comes to the first building block, scale and simplicity totaling DKK 500 million, I would highlight the recent expansion of our TCS agreement to greatly simplify our IT setup. As for the second and middle strategic pillar on technical excellence, we continue to work on improving our portfolio management and improve the profitability in selected lines of businesses in selected geographies.

And finally, as for the last strategic pillar, customer and commercial excellence, I would like to highlight that Trygg-Hansa has entered into 2 new partnership agreements and expanded a third, strengthening its position in the very important Motor segment in Sweden. In the next few slides, I'd like to unfold some of the activities behind Pillar 1 and Pillar 3.

So on the next slide, let's start by unfolding the first strategic pillar. As mentioned at our Capital Market Day, the Tryg that you know today is, in all essence, the product of several mergers and acquisitions through the years, more recently, Alka, Codan Norway and Trygg-Hansa. This has naturally had an impact on our IT setup with a vast number of applications, suppliers and consultants as illustrated on the left-hand side, which is essentially a recap from CMD. As we communicated in Q3, we have, amongst other activities, expanded our agreement with TCS with a firm objective to simplify our IT setup across the group. As illustrated on the right-hand side of this slide, one of the levers in the agreement with TCS is the sharp reduction in the number of ways we develop IT in Tryg, which will drop from 10 to 1. In combination with other levers, this strategic move means that the IT organization at Tryg will see an approximate reduction of 33% in the number of employees in our IT organization as we come into 2026.

On the next slide, I'll open up some of the recent activities behind the 3 strategic pillars. As mentioned previously, Trygg-Hansa has recently entered into 2 new partnerships within motor and expanded a third. As a reminder from the CMD presentation on the left-hand side, there is a significant potential in our Swedish private lines business to bring the exposure in motor up to par with the total market share similar to what we see in our other markets. And one of the levers to achieve that is through partnerships. And so far this year, Trygg-Hansa has signed agreements with Subaru and Carla, an Internet portal and expanded the partnership with Hedin Automotive, which is a retailer, highlighting an increased commercial focus in an area where our market share in Sweden is below our aggregated market share.

The plan is to continue down this path completely in line with our strategy as presented and laid out at the recent CMD. These initiatives are, together with other initiatives, expected to increase premiums by approximately DKK 300 million towards 2027. So we are well on track. And that brings me to the next slide on the financial targets and the strategic targets, essentially a recap of our well-known targets towards 2027. We target a combined of around 81%, which drives an ISR of DKK 8.2 billion or between DKK 8 billion to DKK 8.4 billion, leaving us some room at both ends of the guidance. We target a return on own funds between 35% and 40%, while we have promised to return DKK 17 billion to DKK 18 billion to our shareholders, including DKK 15 billion to DKK 16 billion of ordinary dividends and the already completed DKK 2 billion share buyback. We're also showing in this slide all our strategic KPIs, which support the financial KPIs.

And last but not least, we always end our presentations with the words of John D. Rockefeller that remind us of the importance of being a healthy dividend payer.

And with that, I will pass it on to the operator for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Martin Gregers Birk from SEB.

Johan, just coming back to your ambitions of growing your business. And of course, now you have a good example in Sweden. But given your industry low combined ratio, how much space is there actually for growth? And when you talk about those sort of strategic initiatives, what kind of growth rates are you thinking about?

Thanks a lot for that question, Martin. I think it's an excellent place to start, basically. So I think coming back to our industry-leading margins, that's something we are quite proud of after elevated inflation for the last 2 years. So I would argue we are in exactly the position we want to be in to reignite some of the growth initiatives. And you're right that there are parts of our business, you're alluding also to the combined ratio in Sweden, where, of course, as we start growing that business, it will be with a combined ratio pressure upwards.

Whatever we sell in Sweden will have an upwards pressure on combined ratio. That being said, on a group level, there's ample room to maneuver through that. We have set a target of a combined of 81% in 2027. That leaves us plenty of room to also grow the business along the way. And I want to come back to after the last 2 years, being in a position with strong margins and a growth in the private lines business, which is actually 4.7% is actually a very strong starting point.

Okay. But how much -- I mean sort of -- I guess this is coming back to the everlasting question about the relationship between growth and profitability, right? I mean how much profitability can you sacrifice short term for growth? And given that -- I mean, we have just been through a -- I mean, you pushed through very large price increases over recent years. And I guess from a starting point, you are by no means the cheapest out there in the market. I'm just struggling a little bit to see how you sort of can get the best of both words going forward.

I think there's ample room for us to move on the growth ambitions that we have. Just to be very clear, we don't have a growth target as such. We are a disciplined player. Growing is very easy in our industry. Anybody can grow. The trick here is to grow in a profitable and disciplined manner. You were alluding to, in your first question, what kind of growth expectations do we have? I will never have a growth target on me. If you look back before inflation, we were growing somewhere between 4% to 7% on our top line. That's probably a pretty adequate number to aim for. But if the market is not there, we are not there. So we will not take the growth for the sake of growth. But there's plenty of room to move.

And I think to your point about whether our pricing is attractive or not, I tend to disagree. I think we have a very attractive value proposition in the market, and we are priced accordingly. And when we look at our customer satisfaction numbers, customers seem to echo that.

The next question will be from the line of Qian Lu from UBS.

So you talk about inflation easing and commercial activities picking up. How do you think this would shape the competitive landscape in Nordics given the peers would see similar growth opportunities as you have?

I think I'll start on that question. So I mean, I think, first of all, as you say, inflation is easing off. That's not to say that there is no inflation anywhere. In particular, motor, we've spoken about that before. There are still some areas of inflation, especially for new cars. Having said that, I mean, now inflation is coming down. By that, it's also the necessary price increases that we drive are coming down. So obviously, that gives a much better starting point from a technical perspective to grow from. And obviously, as Johan alluded to, we are also putting through more focus on commercial initiatives from that. That's not to say that the market is not competitive. Obviously, it is, but that's as it should be.

And our next question will be from the line of Nadia Claressa from JPMorgan.

I have two questions, please. My first one is just on Sweden. So obviously, a very strong combined ratio there. Could you just provide some more context on the drivers behind that, please? And secondly, on Norway, I mean, the development there has been pleasing to see. And I think earlier in your commentary, you mentioned that there's still work to do there. So I was just wondering with the rate increases start to slow down, could you just remind us what specific initiatives you're referring to here?

I'll start addressing those questions. If we start with Sweden, I would say, first of all, it's a very strong result overall. I mean, basically from the Private segment to the Commercial segment. So very strong sort of across the board and all product areas. And obviously, as we've said many times before, a big part of the Swedish book is personal accident, which is capital heavy and therefore, also should have a good combined ratio. So I think it's basically sort of all different parts sort of drawing in the same direction and therefore, giving a really, really strong -- super strong -- I mean, we need to say super, super strong combined ratio in Sweden.

If I move over to Norway, yes, we are improving this quarter as well. We've said a number of times that we are putting through initiatives. Those are mainly rate initiatives, but it's also other profitability initiatives, including, for instance, deductibles. And this is mainly targeting private Norway. We are continuing to putting through the same measures as we have done before. This will ease off going into 2026. But we're also very confident that the actions we have taken and the actions that we are still taking and the earnings effect of that will have the impact that we want to and that we will come into that mid-80s core that we talked about before.

I think if I could just add one thought on that, Miki is, I think what we are seeing now is a benefit of having a group hedge in the sense that we are very well exposed now with strong businesses in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. So whereas we've seen Norway being slightly challenged for all operators in the Norwegian market, we have benefited from having a very strong and stable business in Sweden and the same in Denmark. So I think this is the group hedge that we bring to the table.

The next question will be from the line of Derald Goh from Jefferies.

Just going back on the Danish retention rate. So I've noticed this dropped by about 80 basis points in both Private and Commercial. Could you elaborate about the technical factor that you spoke about? Because you mentioned pricing, but then if I look at the revenue growth, it was something like 1% or 2%. So maybe could you explain what's happening behind that retention ratio, please?

Maybe I should start on this one. Yes, we are mentioning a one-off that is printed in the growth rates in the private growth rates. And it's just around DKK 50 million that is related to a partner agreement last year, and we have decided to adjust the numbers to align the market expectations on the top line growth.

And just on the top of that, Allan, you're correct that we are seeing some drops on the retention rates in the Danish market. Before I get to that, we are seeing an uplift in Sweden. We are pleased to see that. We are seeing a stabilization in Norway. And yes, we are seeing slight drops in Denmark. As for the private lines, as Allan alluded to, this technical adjustment actually means we are flat in Denmark Q-on-Q when you do the technical adjustment, whereas we still see some sort of a drop in the commercial lines. Just to bring that into the context of where we are, we are coming out of a period of high price increases, offsetting inflationary pressures. We've seen this before. You don't have to go more than 8 or 10 years back where we see drops in retention of similar nature. And when these situations taper off, we've seen a bounce back, and we expect a similar bounce back in our Danish market going forward. So to be very honest, we couldn't have wished for a better position to be in right now than where we are, strong margins, strong customer satisfaction and the ability to invest into the market.

The next question will be from the line of Asbjørn Mørk from Danske Bank.

As well on the underwriting, just trying to understand, first, the combined ratio trend in Denmark, the deterioration we're seeing here, you say that retention has been softer. I guess you've been repricing mainly at low profitability clients. So I guess your core or combined ratio should improve, all else equal. But also more on the underlying claims ratio trend for the coming years, the 30 basis points improvement you print again here for Q3 and the composition that private continues to improve also in the second order derivative with the repricing measures, it seems like at least on official data, you're repricing more than most of your peers in Norway. But [indiscernible], trends on the claims side is moving in the right direction.

So is it fair to assume that the private underlying will improve also in the second order derivatives for the coming quarters and that the group will continue to deliver 30 basis points also in '26 and '27? Or because when I look at consensus, it seems as if consensus at least expects some sort of deterioration to the underlying improvement trends. So sort of getting a little bit more flavor on that would be good.

So if we start with the combined ratio in Denmark, the specifics for this quarter is obviously that we had some weather events. Those were, like we said before, on a Scandinavian basis, slightly above our expectations, but the main part of those came from Denmark. So weather is impacting Denmark a bit more in the quarter. If we then move to our underlying expectations before, and I know I'm a bit boring when I'm going back to and stating that we will be stable to slightly improving going forward as well. So that statement still holds also from these levels. But in order to sort of double-click on that and give a little bit more flavor on that, of course, as we have said before, the composition of that slight improvement will come more from the Private segment. We've said that before. We are seeing that in the numbers today, and that is something that we also expect going forward. And that's not least coming from the repricing initiatives in Norway and the profitability initiatives in Norway.

And then just a final point, I mean, one of the good things about being a big, well-diversified Scandinavian player is obviously that we can utilize that in order to drive the right measures in the right markets. And in Sweden, as Johan has alluded to, we see that we have commercial initiatives to be done and are doing. In Norway, we are protecting our margins and improving our margins. So it's also depending on market on what type of initiatives we drive.

So if I just may follow up, Miki. So if we look at Denmark and we adjust for weather, or then last case, look at the underlying, is there then an improvement in Denmark year-over-year? And secondly, just trying to understand, do you expect a deterioration to the underlying claims ratio on a group basis for commercial going forward? Or I mean, are you seeing any changes in competition, anything like that, that would impact that? Or should we expect sort of flattish development there?

Yes. So if we start with sort of Denmark specifically, and now we don't guide for the underlying in specific markets. But I think I'll just like to reiterate once again that the improvement is very much coming from the Norwegian book, which is natural and that we want and we need that improvement. Denmark and Sweden Personal Lines, we are more targeting to grow from very healthy levels that we start with. And then if we look at the composition in underlying, again, saying sort of stable to slightly improving. We don't guide on the specifics between Commercial and Private. But as I've said before, we expect the composition to be more driven from the Private segment. That's also natural given the extremely good combined ratios that we're seeing for the Commercial segment.

And Asbjørn, just to add one comment on this. So I do understand where you're coming from when you see the combined for Denmark moving up slightly. But one thing is weather. But in general, don't get too hung up on one quarterly combined. I mean we are running a quite sizable book. Don't get hung up on that. We are printing for the 3 markets combined of 81.9%, 83.1% and 70.7%. So I think you need to have the broader perspective and allow the quarters to come in the order they are coming. On a group level, this is very satisfactory.

Our next question comes from the line of Mathias Nielsen from Nordea.

So I'd like to ask two questions. The first one is some sort of just a small technical one, just to be clear, the one-off you had last year of DKK 50 million on revenues. As far as I have understood it, there's not been any claims related to that. So that means you've got some headwind on the combined ratio on the group level this year on the underlying. I know you prefer to have stable earnings. So would it be fair to expect an uptick in the improvement in the underlying claims ratio in Q4 given that it also seems to be in the Private segment where you're already ticking up by another 10 basis points in Q3 despite this headwind? That's the first question.

And then the second one, coming a bit back to the Danish retention rates, if I hear you right, it seems like we are now at the peak negative on the retention rates in Denmark, as you say, when adjusting for the technical stuff you have done, has actually been flat. Would you expect the retention rates to increase from Q4 already? Or should we go further into the future before we see that improvement? How should we think about that?

Yes. I think I'll start with the first question here, and that is just to reiterate that we are a very large book and immaterial runoffs will occur from time to time. And we have chosen to adjust the DKK 50 million related to the specific one-off related to a partner agreement last year. And in terms of underlying, what we are discussing here is 10 basis points, it's around DKK 10 million that you're alluding to here. So not much to add on this part, Mathias.

Sorry, but it's like -- it's DKK 50 million profits. It's like you have no cost associated to that. It's actually going to be like DKK 50 million going directly to profits where you normally would have around 80% of that going to claims and costs. So that's what I'm asking about is that was there any claims related to those DKK 50 million last year?

Yes. So if I just -- let's just be clear on that. So the -- I mean, those DKK 50 million are normal DKK 50 million earnings from those, also obviously some claims. So that doesn't have any impact whatsoever on the underlying loss ratio. So no impact whatsoever, sort of up or down from the 30 basis points. You should ignore those totally from the underlying claims ratio improvement.

Okay. That was very clear. And then on the retention rates, please...

Yes. And on the retention rates, I don't want to guide on retention rates for a certain segment in a certain market. But you're right in sort of summarizing my statement earlier saying that if we adjust for this technical adjustments, we are seeing it plateau our retention rates. And I think we are playing a marginal sport here. So whether it goes down slightly or up slightly is difficult to judge. But I think we are coming to an end of some of the impacts of repricing in our retention rates. So in that sense, I agree with you.

Okay. And then if you look historically, how fast did it come back last time? Was there any -- do you have any empirical evidence on how quickly retention rates get back to historical levels after such things?

It takes a few years, I would argue. But let's see -- it depends on how things develop from here in terms of inflation and et cetera. So it's hard to guide. But in the previous situation, it's been a few years for the bounce back.

The next question will be from the line of Vinit from Mediobanca.

So my one question and one clarification, if possible, please. One question would be the very interesting news to me about your car dealership agreements in Sweden, where one of your other peers is quite prominent already in that space. And I'm just curious if -- did you face much competition or resistance in the market when you were trying to do this? Because obviously, it's a different signal. I think you've been bigger in the used car space versus new. So it obviously has some implications medium term for your motor book? And are you planning to do more of these in other markets? I'm just curious about this new agreement in motor insurance. Any comments helpful.

And on the clarification, the DKK 1 billion or so less roughly of real estate sold, have you indicated any gains on that in the P&L either in Q3 or in Q4 in whichever way?

Thanks a lot for those questions. I will start by looking into the Trygg-Hansa, and then I think Allan will comment on the sale of real estate afterwards. So as for the motor agreements in Sweden, this is actually not a completely new strategy. Already in the last strategy period, we attracted quite a lot of car agreements also with BMW in the recent strategy period. And what we're doing now is going down the same path now of actually using and leveraging our very strong Trygg-Hansa brand in Sweden to attract partners and customers. As for the competition, of course, it is a competitive space. Winning motor customers is an attractive business. We're very pleased with the agreements we have signed now with Subaru and Carla. We are also very pleased with expanding with Hedin Automotive.

And you're asking me, do I think there will be more to come? I sincerely hope so. I think this is a very good way of attracting new customers. And this is down the path of not just the strategy we launched at the Capital Markets Day in December, but it fits very well with the rationale behind the RSA transaction, where we said that we believe the Trygg-Hansa brand was punching underweight in Sweden. We're investing into the Swedish market. The brand is vibrant as ever, and we see this also allowing us to attract new partnerships like the ones just closed this year. So we expect more from this and it's benefiting the growth profile in the Swedish market. And I think, Allan, could you just share a few words on the sale of real estate?

Yes. Well, happy to do that. And just to go back in time, as mentioned at our Capital Market Day back in December, long term, we do not expect properties to be part of our asset mix. And now we have started the derisking of the book. Very pleased to announce today the sale of that made in Q3 and also commenting that we have done a further derisking in Q4. We are very, obviously, hard at work to bring down our real estate exposure further down the line. And as also said earlier, for real estate, timely liquidity is very important considerations, and we will still take an opportunistic approach to this asset class. And just as planned, we plan to exit, and we will revert when we have news on the further derisking.

Our next question comes from the line of Youdish Chicooree from Autonomous Research.

I've got -- I would like to come back on the topic of the trade-off between margins and top line growth. If I take your combined ratio you reported for the first 9 months and normalize for large claims and weather and take the latest discounting and assume runoff of just 2%, I get a normalized combined ratio of 81.5%. And you still have over a year of your strategic plan and efficiency measures to realize, which in my view leaves you in a very strong position to actually beat your combined ratio target. Would it be fair to say that you are deliberately choosing to operate at that 81% level while prioritizing maybe more top line growth that we've seen in the recent quarters?

First of all, thanks for the question. I think fundamentally, if you take a step back, I think the key question here is whether there is any boundaries for us to take organic profitable growth in the market with the financial targets that we have set out, and we don't see any. I think it's true, of course, that as you start growing your business, it's an investment that will put some upward pressure. But if you do this in a disciplined manner, we have ample opportunities to navigate through this financially.

We have in the strategy, many cost levers also that we are pulling that will allow us to navigate our combined ratio to hit around the 81% that is in our financial targets. Expect us to continue to deliver an improving underlying -- stable to improving underlying. Expect us to navigate to the 81%, and expect us to start rebalancing the growth profile also. We are in a very strong position to do so. And we don't see any boundaries. That being said, you'll never see us coming out in an uncontrolled manner chasing for growth. We'll leave that to other people. We want to have a very disciplined approach to our growth profile, and we have ample room to do that in the financial targets.

[Operator Instructions] the next question will be from the line of Daniel Wilson-Omordia from Morgan Stanley.

I just had a quick question on the investment portfolio. I've noticed over the past few quarters or so, it's come down -- the size of the portfolio has come down quite a bit. I mean we were at DKK 17.5 billion just in Q2 '24, DKK 16.5 billion in the end of '24, DKK 15 billion last quarter, and now we're at DKK 14 billion. So I'm just wondering, I know some of this will be to do with the buyback, but I'm wondering if there's anything else going on there that's causing the portfolio to shrink. I also noticed that you sold down the real estate portfolio this quarter, but it doesn't seem like you've reinvested the proceeds from that back into the bonds. So I'm just wondering what's happening there. If there's any sort of timing issues or things happening there that you could elaborate on?

Maybe I can help you out with this. The absolutely primary explanation is the buybacks. That's what explains the reduction in total of the free portfolio. You should also expect any proceeds from the sale of real estate to be reinvested in Danish covered bonds. There can be delays in time the DKK 500 million were flagged at the beginning of Q4. It's obviously to be booked in Q4. So there can be slight delays, but there shouldn't be any doubt of what we'll be doing with this. I hope that's clear.

Our next question comes from the line of [indiscernible] from ABG.

Just on a follow-up on the comments on Denmark. It looks to be relatively muted revenue growth in Denmark, even adjusting for the one-off, well below indexation levels. So I guess the volume part of the equation is just the dampening effect here. Is this simply sort of like the effect from retention levels dropping? Or is there still some pruning of the portfolio left? And if so, when should this paid off? Just any color on that would be very helpful.

Yes. So thanks for that question. And just to share a few numbers before I try to answer the question. You're right, when you do the adjustments for the -- technical adjustments, your growth rate for Denmark will be somewhere between 2% and 3%. If you look into the private lines business, I can share so much -- the private lines is actually quite above that. So you are right, there is a lack of growth in our Commercial segment. And that comes down to a combination of the metrics you are alluding to here. One is pruning of the portfolio and another part is what we discussed earlier in this call, the retention part. So there is sort of the topic to discuss for the Danish growth levels, and that's something that we will be tackling in the quarters to come.

And as our final question, we have a follow-up from the line of Derald from Jefferies. .

Just a quick one, please. Could you share what sort of price increases you're putting in Norway and Denmark, please? And how did that compare to your assumed level of claims inflation?

Yes. So if we start with Norway, and I'm assuming that the question is mainly for the Private segment in Norway. Currently, we are still putting through the same price increases as we have talked about previously, which is in sort of the mid- to high teens. We obviously expect that, and I said that before as well, to be much lower in 2026, obviously, still well covered for inflation. And in Denmark, the situation is very different. Again, we've said that before. So we are much more sort of indexed linked and much more in line with compensating for inflation when it comes to the private segment in Denmark.

Well, back to me now. I just would like to thank you all for the good dialogue and always a good question. As a reminder, Robin and the Investor Relations team will be able to help you today in the next few days. Otherwise, thanks again, and we'll speak to you soon.