Volvo B Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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StocksGuide Unlimited – full access to AI analyses
👉 More detailed insights
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Invest better with AI
StocksGuide Unlimited – full access to AI analyses
👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
👉 Clear answers to your questions
Invest better with AI
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👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
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Is Volvo B a Top Scorer Stock based on the Dividend, High-Growth-Investing or Leverman Strategy?
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = kr684.20b | Revenue (TTM) = kr471.53b
Market Cap = kr684.20b | Estimated Revenue = kr504.72b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = kr897.49b | Revenue (TTM) = kr471.53b
Enterprise Value = kr897.49b | Forward Revenue = kr504.72b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
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JUL
17
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
2 months ago
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10
Analyst/Investor Day - AB Volvo (publ)
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24
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Volvo B — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the Volvo Group Second Quarter press conference. Today, we do as we always do. We listen to our President and CEO, Martin Lundstedt; and then follow up with Mats Backman, our CFO; and then finalize with the Q&A. With that, I leave over to you, Martin.
Thank you very much for that, Johan. And also welcome from my side. Even if it was a short introduction, I have to say, it's always a little bit emotion to see our fantastic products in action. So second quarter 2026. And as I would like to start by saying that the group and, in reality, of course, all colleagues and business partners delivered very strong and solid results in the quarter with adjusted operating income of SEK 14.8 billion and a margin that expanded to 11.7%, demonstrating strong earnings resilience and growth despite many moving parameters such as continuous geopolitical turmoil, tariffs as well as higher freight and material costs.
Performance was good across business areas with high customer confidence in our products and services, reflected in a strong order intake and low cancellations throughout the quarter. The group also launched several new business offerings as well as portfolio moves to further improve our competitive set, and I will get back to that during the course of this presentation. Quarterly order intake developed also positively with an increase year-over-year of 33% for group trucks as one example.
And when it comes to the market forecast for the full year, we are, for trucks continuing to revise slightly upwards Europe, while reiterating the forecast for North America, given that the first half year was relatively weak when it comes to deliveries into the market in North America and the catch-up will be needed there. But order intake has been strong, as you have seen. Another example is the rapidly growing demand for power solutions, not at least linked to data center and AI infrastructure, resulting in an impressive 25% -- sorry, 21% of Volvo Penta's order book value now is related to data center build-out.
Looking ahead, we continue to focus on what we, as a group, together with our partners, can impact by staying close to our customers, thereby driving growth and resilience. And we remain responsive to geopolitical developments, trade policy shifts and the speed of transition into zero emission transport. Operationally, here and now, our flexibility toolbox serves us well to execute on the strong order book, but also maintaining balance between demand and supply and keeping inventories at the right level.
The ramp-up for trucks in North America is currently a key priority. Our focus also remains regarding effective cost control, and we actively pursue commercial efforts to mitigate the increases in freight and material costs. The priority of the service business is giving good results and services did grow with 7% organically, showing that our customers have a good utilization in their fleet. All in all, our flexible business model creates maneuverability to leverage the current environment to grab opportunities and to continue to create value for customers, for employees and for shareholders.
And there is a continuous and growing structural demand in the world for efficient and effective transport infrastructure and not at least energy solutions, and the group is well positioned to move ahead and to grab these opportunities. Looking then at the figures. The [second] quarter net sales amounted to SEK 126 billion with an organic sales growth of 7%. We continue to focus on earnings quality and the adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 14.8 billion with an expanded margin to 11.7% in the quarter.
Operating cash flow amounted to SEK 5.8 billion, mainly driven by higher earnings and the industrial operation net financial position at the end of quarter [2] amounted to SEK 34.7 billion. Return on capital employed reached almost 27% and earnings per share amounted to SEK 5.1 per share. So we can conclude another strong quarter, and I would like to take the opportunity also to thank all colleagues and business partners for great effort during this quarter. Coming into group news then, in the quarter, Volvo Financial Services and Eicher Motors Limited intend to form a joint venture, tapping into both Volvo and Eicher-branded commercial vehicles. And the intended joint venture will provide financing, leasing and other financial services for customers of, as I said, Volvo and Eicher-branded commercial vehicles in the Indian market, and that is a great opportunity.
The closing of this deal is expected during the first half of '27, pending approvals from authorities. But it is a very important next step in a market that is expanding rapidly and where we have a strong position. On June 10, we held the Volvo Group's Capital Markets Day in Eskilstuna, Sweden, built for resilience and growth, well attended day with a lot of good interaction with our investor base, but also other key stakeholders and a lot of good interaction and feedback on that.
Also, Volvo Group and Renault Group, together with CMA-CGM, has completed the strategic change for the joint venture, Flexis and the transaction, meaning that Flexis is moving into Renault Group was closed in June. And Volvo Group also reached a settlement with the California Air Resources Board during the quarter. When it comes to volume developments, truck deliveries increased by 6% to 55,700 vehicles with higher volumes in Europe and South America, but with lower volumes still in North America from a delivery standpoint and also in Asia.
Volvo Construction Equipment's Volvo branded volume did grow 14% in the quarter, driven mainly by North America, but also to some extent by Europe. When it comes to electrification progress, orders of electrical vehicles increased 39% to 5,500 units, 12 months rolling. The increase was primarily driven by Renault light commercial vehicles, but also that Volvo Trucks took more orders for their heavy-duty electric trucks year-over-year and that is also coming with the introduction of the new long-range and versatile platforms for Volvo.
Deliveries were largely flat on minus 2% level. Sales development, Vehicle and Machine organic sales growth was 6% in the quarter. Trucks did grow also with 6% FX adjusted, driven by sales in Europe and South America. Volvo CE had a sales growth at 14% in the quarter, driven by good sales across Europe, North and South America. And bus net sales were down 2%, mainly caused by somewhat softer sales in Europe. And Penta net sales were down 4%, mainly caused by lower sales to the Middle East, where some of the deliveries of power generation equipment has been temporarily paused due to the conflict situation that is happening for the time being in the region, unfortunately.
But we are expecting that to come back. So that is temporarily paused. Service sales development. Organic service growth amounted to an impressive 7% in the quarter. And what was very positive, it was broad-based positive development across business areas. The 12-month rolling service sales increased to SEK 126 billion. And this is also showing that what we discussed during the Capital Markets Day that our work with the total offer for every customer is really paying off here. Services is a very important focus area, and our efforts are paying off when it comes to not at least our service contract portfolio.
We see that when we have service contracts, also it gives higher retention with our customer base, but also higher resilience and less volatility for the group. Moving into trucks then. In May, Volvo Trucks showcased their brand-new high-performing 13-liter combustion engine platform, which will be implemented now step-by-step globally. The platform is also alongside with diesel fuel, ready for renewables and alternative fuels such as biodiesel, HVO, biogas and green hydrogen. And sales will begin during the third quarter 2026.
In June, Renault Trucks followed also Volvo showed their next generation of battery electric heavy-duty, the Renault Trucks E-Tech T, which has an impressive range of up to 660 kilometers and with maybe in that sense, a leading payload reaching up to 27 tonnes. Sales started for Renault here end of June. And Mack Trucks, and you can see that on the image here, celebrated America's 250 anniversary with a debut of a limited edition America 250 tribute truck. a custom-designed Mack Pioneer, as you can see here, honoring the company's deep American roots and its long-standing role in helping move the country forward.
Then when we move into the market forecast for trucks in North America, we repeat our market outlook at 265,000 units in retail sales. That is sales out from dealers, then, to customers. Orders levels have been elevated in recent months, while retail sales pace or the deliveries, then, is expected to gain momentum in the second half of the year. And any EPA '27 prebuy is included in our current view, but it means that we need really now to get deliveries out during the last part of the year here. And for Europe, the forecast for '26 is increased by 5,000 units to 350,000 on the back of continued strong underlying demand in the market.
Brazilian market continues to hold up on the back of the FINAME financing support package, and we repeat our market forecast of 80,000. Demand in India has continued to grow, supported by steady freight activity, continued investments in infrastructure and supportive government policies and healthy replacement need. Repeat our Indian market forecast of 400,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks. And the total market forecast for China have been lifted with 120,000 units up to 880,000 on the back of extended trade-in program aimed to modernize the fleet. And that is really to continue to decouple the transport sector from fossil fuel dependence in China, continue to boost battery electric vehicle sales.
Book-to-bill, of course, a very positive picture here. Recent order momentum across regions supports a continued positive book-to-bill. And for globally, the book-to-bill was at [170%] in the quarter and 106% 12-month rolling. And we have gradually been ramping up and are well balanced on the industrial side to meet the customer demand. But as I said already, focus will be on a continuous ramp-up in North America during the second half of the year here. North American itself then has been strong with 150% in quarter two and 133% 12-month rolling.
Europe in balance, but should be remember that is on really good and solid levels. And South America is strong given FINAME programs. On the truck market share side, in Europe, to start with, Volvo Renault Trucks continued to deliver strong market shares through May. Volvo at 19.6% and Renault at 9.3%, giving a total share of almost 29%. And on the battery-electric side, more OEMs are now delivering battery electric solutions. Volvo and Renault Trucks delivered a 24% combined market share for the quarter. But to be remember is that our recent launches of the next-generation long-range and versatile electric trucks will regain momentum both for Volvo and Renault.
And we proceed with our 3-pronged approach with diesel, electric and hydrogen to drive both decarbonization and to meet the demands from the customers. In North America, we had a combined share of 17%. Mack Trucks is at 8.4% and Volvo 8.6%. Volvo Trucks are back on the right track and regain gradually their position and further support from over-the-road or the sleeper segments is expected for Volvo. In Brazil remains at a good level and reached a market share of 23.2%. And in Australia, the combined Volvo and Mack market share reached 21.4%.
Moving then into Construction Equipment. Volvo Construction Equipment had, first and foremost, the Volvo Days 2026, a big customer event that was held in Eskilstuna. Focus was on, of course, a lot of our new products and services, productivity, sustainability and long-term customer competitiveness. Over 8,000 guests participated over the course of 4 weeks, of course, including mainly customers from all over the world, but also retail partners and employees, but also representative from society at large, policymakers, investors and suppliers.
And in mid-June, we held also the groundbreaking ceremony for the new excavator factory in Eskilstuna, together with Sweden's Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister. And this SEK 700 million investment reinforces Volvo Construction Equipment competitiveness, industrial footprint and proximity to customers in the important European market for excavators. And the new factory is set for completion in 2028. And in the quarter, Volvo CE also delivered the world's first electric articulated hauler, the Volvo A30 Electric. And that is, of course, also fit for good operation given the more confined nature, as you can see on the picture here. And we see an increasing customer interest around this and showcased not at least during the Volvo Days here. Market forecast, no drama at all. On the other side, we are lifting -- if you start with North America, we are lifting North America with 5 percentage points. We guided flat as midpoint previously, but now we guide plus 5% in relation to previous year, supported by investments in data centers, energy infrastructure and manufacturing onshoring.
Europe, we had already plus 5% as midpoint in relation to last year, and we keep that at the same level as previous quarterly report on the back of continued infrastructure development, good machine utilization. South America also keeping unchanged, but in this case on a flat development in relation to last year. We are a little bit taking down and decreasing Asia from flat to minus 5% as midpoint on the back of the softer markets in Turkey and Middle East and somewhat in India as well.
And China, we are lifting from plus 5% midpoint to plus 10%. And here, we see growth supported by government policies to stimulate the real estate market and export industries. When it comes to the book-to-bill, reached 92% in the quarter and 102% 12-month rolling. And here, it's important to mention that orders were up 8% and deliveries up 14% for the Volvo brand. So we have a good order coverage for both Europe and North America. In Asia, the lower book-to-bill is driven by somewhat decreasing markets in Turkey, Middle East and India, as I previously mentioned. Buses. First and foremost, Vy Flygbussarna airport coaches operating between main cities in Sweden and the airports placed an order of new 25 coaches and also complete the gold service contracts to be used for, as I said, then for -- between the cities and the airports.
We also introduced the Volvo Buses new electric coach into operations and start on the route between Gothenburg and Landvetter Airport. Book-to-bill was 62%, some seasonality in this from a lower order intake in the quarter. But Volvo Buses have a balanced fill rate for the year and book-to-bill 12-month rolling at 92%. For Volvo Penta, continued to introduce new versions of the IPS Hybrid platform, expanding its hybrid-electric marine offering into the professional vessels segment with a strong customer interest given the performance of this execution.
Volvo Penta also strengthened its position in the growing data center segment and expanded its strategic collaboration with Utility Innovation Group. Data centers, as I said, now represent 21% of Volvo Penta's total order book value. And the image on the screen here is from the Switch data center in Las Vegas, produced by Volvo Penta's partner, Central Power and powered by Volvo Penta D16 in gensets. Volvo Penta's book-to-bill at good balance with 96% in quarter 2 and 97% 12-month rolling. Moving then into Financial Services, continued to profitably grow the portfolio on a currency-adjusted basis through solid new retail financing and the 12-month rolling penetration rate was sustained at 30%. Portfolio performance continued to be good with maintained earnings resilience. And of course, we are now continuing to focus on the total offer as again described during the Capital Markets Day, where VFS, together with our business areas are playing a very important role, both for customer finance, but also in the growing insurance segment. So by that, Johan, I leave the word back to you.
Thank you, Martin. Thank you for the business update. Now turning to Mats to take us through the financial numbers for the second quarter.
Thank you, Johan. Then looking into the financials [stand] and starting off with group net sales. Organic net sales increased by 7% comparing to last year. Vehicle sales increased by 6%, driven by Trucks and Construction Equipment. Service sales increased by 7% with contribution from all business areas. Looking at the organic net sales development in the different geographical regions. European volumes increased, which led to an increased sales of 13%, driven mainly by Group Trucks and Construction Equipment. In North America, sales were slightly higher by 4%, driven by Construction Equipment and buses, but this was partly offset by trucks. In South America, net sales increased by 9% versus last year, supported by all business areas.
And in Asia, net sales decreased by 3% in the quarter. Overall, FX effect was negative with about SEK 1 billion in the quarter. The adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 14.8 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 11.7%. In Q2, earnings were again supported by the positive development of our service business, a positive brand and market mix and R&D net. The U.S. tariff net cost was on the expected level of about SEK 1.2 billion with a negative year-over-year effect of SEK 1 billion.
In the second quarter, we continue to see higher freight costs and increased material costs related to inflation and the current geopolitical situation. The year-over-year increase in selling cost is mainly due to selling costs from acquired businesses. The net R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.3 billion with a year-over-year effect of SEK 600 million, and FX had a positive impact of SEK 500 million in the quarter. The second quarter cash flow amounted to SEK 5.8 billion. The positive cash flow contribution in the quarter was mainly driven by higher operating income and a lower buildup of working capital.
Return on capital employed trend improved to 26.8% on a rolling 12-month basis. Net cash in Industrial Operations amounted to SEK 35 billion, and the decrease versus first quarter is mainly related to the SEK 26 billion of paid out dividends. Group Trucks organic net sales increased by 7%, and this was driven by higher volumes and positive development of our service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 9.7 billion with an operating margin of 11.2%. Higher volumes in Europe and South America, good development of the service business and lower R&D net were partly offset by increased freight and material costs.
Currency had a positive impact of SEK 300 million in the quarter. Construction Equipment net sales increased by 13% versus last year, and this was driven by higher volumes and positive development of the service business. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 3.1 billion with an operating margin of 14.4%. Positive development of our service business and brand and market mix were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, U.S. tariff and material costs had a negative impact on the financial performance and currency had a positive impact of SEK 180 million in the quarter. Then looking into Buses. Organic net sales were stable versus last year. Buses delivered another strong quarter with adjusted operating income of SEK 498 million and 8.2% in operating margin.
The result was supported by price realization and positive brand and product mix. In the second quarter, material cost and U.S. tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact. Currency had a positive impact of SEK 18 million in the quarter. Penta organic net sales were on the same level as last year. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 908 million with an operating margin of 16.7%. Price realization and strong development for the service business were offset by lower volumes, higher R&D and U.S. tariff costs. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 37 million in the quarter.
And then looking into Financial Services. The credit portfolio increased to SEK 274 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity of 10%. Portfolio performance continues to be good with delinquencies and write-offs under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 1 billion, supported by good portfolio growth, but partly offset by an increase in credit provisions. Currency had a positive impact of SEK 26 million compared to the same quarter last year. And then finally, looking into the forward-looking guidances and starting off with the FX.
We expect a positive currency impact of approximately SEK 500 million year-over-year in the third quarter. The underlying net impact from tariffs in the third quarter is estimated to SEK 1.1 billion, but expected to be fully offset by IEEPA refunds, giving a total net tariff effect of around 0 in the third quarter. We expect an R&D net capitalization effect of SEK 3.5 billion for the full year '26 with a year-over-year negative effect of about SEK 500 million. Finally, we reiterate the guidance from last quarter for a tax rate of 24% for the full year 2026. And with that, I'm leaving for Martin to summarize.
Thank you very much for that, Mats, that really good walk-through when it comes to the financials. I will do the summary very brief. Obviously, first and foremost, again, I would like to thank all colleagues and business partners for very strong quarter and great work performed here. We see that also when it comes to the top line development, organic development of 7% up to SEK 126 billion, especially I would like to mention the service development also organically growing with 7%, of course, continue to support the business here, but also the order intake, not at least then when it comes to group trucks.
So now moving forward here, it is a full focus of executing on the order book that we have and also to make sure that we are having a good level of adaptability when it comes also to the commercial conditions moving forward in order to mitigate the freight and material costs for the company as we have been doing in this quarter. So that is the summary, I think, Johan. And -- let's get started with the Q&A.
Yes. Thank you, Martin. So we move into the Q&A session, and we have a number of banks on the line. We will start with Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley.
2. Question Answer
Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley. So Martin, there still seems to be quite a gap between North America orders and deliveries. Obviously, we started to see freight activity pick up somewhat, but it's not quite booming. The latest EPA proposal seems to indicate that the incremental cost of compliance is also relatively low. So what's your sense of customer sentiment from here? Is there any concern with those later deliveries? Or are you quite confident in the sustainability of the upturn?
Thank you, Shaqeal, for that question. I think that is one of the, of course, the key topics now moving forward for us. I think that there is an underlying support for this figure, knowing that we have been into a freight recession, not at least when it comes to the long haul for quite some time. And that is also reflected in the age of the fleet, et cetera. We should also remember between the order intake and actually deliveries of what we are calling retail sales out from our dealers, there is, so to speak, a process to get this out. And since the year started relatively weak, as you remember, we had stop days in quarter 1 and also we were not fully in balance up to mid-May.
The second half of the year now is, of course, a delivery semester for us and for the industry in order also to reach because from time to time, we get the question, why don't you change the 265,000 guidance. But we should remember that during the first 6 months, it has been considerably lower than 50% of the 265,000. So that implies an uptick here. Then, of course, there is still now discussions ongoing, how will exactly the EPA '27, so to speak, transition look like. But again, I think the underlying fundamental is important. Then it is important then to manage, so to speak, in a good way quarter 1 next year. But -- but at the end of the day, that is normal business for us, what we have in the order book and the order coverage, we feel is solid both for Mack and for Volvo.
Very good. We continue in London with UBS, and we turn to Hemal. Please go ahead, Hemal.
Hemal Bhundia from UBS. Just in terms of the higher costs from freight and raw materials, is this across the group? Or is there certain regions and divisions where you're seeing these great cost headwinds? And is pricing the only option you have? Or can you pull on other levers such as negotiating with suppliers?
I would say it's across all the business areas. It's more kind of a general inflation. And as we said in the report, I mean, what we're doing is we're kind of gradually increasing prices. So we see a gradual price realization coming there. So that's -- we are on top of it, so to speak, but it's definitely cost inflation out there. It is. And it's more general, I would say, than specific. And if you're looking at specifically, like Martin said now in the quarter, more kind of pronounced what we saw at Penta with delays on deliveries and thereby lower volumes. So that's kind of a concrete difference if you're comparing the different business areas. But otherwise, more of a kind of a general cost inflation, I would say.
And I mean -- and I think that's very important to reiterate what Mats is saying, it's not, I mean, reflected to Volvo or not even to our industry. It's more the general, so to speak, pattern given that you have had disturbances, et cetera. But having said that, I think you have seen that during a number of years now, different type of events like that. And we have also been showing that we are really good in working then with the compensation, both when it comes to operational efficiency, when it comes to working with the supply base, as you alluded to, but also when it comes to the commercial conditions, obviously. So that will continue that work.
Yes.
Good. We continue with Goldman Sachs and Daniela Costa.
I wanted to ask on your EU truck guidance upgrade, and just, that can you elaborate a little bit on what you see underlying -- because we have been seeing the European market okay for a while, while macro headwinds continue and exactly sort of where we are on that replacement cycle. Do you think this can continue into the coming year? Or is there anything a bit more structural that is driving this?
Yes. Thank you, Daniela, for that question. And I mean, we have continued to see in the different European regions, continuous good activity, both when it comes to deliveries, low levels of cancellations and a good order activity and -- but also when it comes to the utilization of the fleet. And now it's not a dramatic, so to speak, revision. It's plus 5,000. But still, it shows that it's holding up well. But I also would like to say that even though we are talking about solid levels, I mean, 310, 315 that we are now guiding for are, of course, good levels, but they are not extraordinary good levels also because -- if you look at 4, 5 years back in time also, we have been considerably higher.
So if you think about replacements, we are not concerned that we are replacing too quick in relation to the rolling fleet. So then when it comes to the structural opportunities that are ahead of us, I think they are a little bit yet to be seen. Somewhat we have seen that when it comes to e-commerce, et cetera, not only in Europe. But I think when it comes to defense, energy infrastructure and other type of more structural opportunities moving ahead, they are yet to be seen. But there is an underlying demand that we think is solid here.
Good. We continue with the Citibank and Klas Bergelind.
So I just want to ask on tariffs, Mats. So first on Section 232 and the offsets here. Obviously, EPA will impact positively in the third quarter. But what are you hearing on the Section 232 offsets? I mean on my calculation is the MSRP offsets in trucks can almost offset your annual tariff bill in trucks, which could come on top of the EPA. Do you think this can come through this side of the year or more next year?
And without kind of guessing, but taking one step back and looking at the total picture because I mean, there's a lot of different moving parts right now when it comes to tariffs. So what we said then for the second quarter was that we guided for SEK 1.2 billion, and that's what we saw as well then in the quarter then. And we talked when we reported the first quarter and gave the guidance for the second quarter, we talked a little bit about the extended scope when it comes to the Section 232 for construction equipment and including excavators and wheel loaders as well on top of the previous kind of ones included in Section 232. And that has now changed during the quarter then. So now they are back on the original scope again. So if you're looking at the guidance we are giving for the third quarter, we are slightly lower than on the total net impact of SEK 1.1 billion as an underlying.
And then on top of that, we have the IEEPA refunds then that will be a wash for the full net impact of tariffs. So saying 0 then for the third quarter, including the IEEPA refunds then. But we have an underlying run rate when it comes to the tariffs in the third quarter of SEK 1.1 billion. And you are right, when it comes to the Section 232 credits, we have nothing included from that in the quarter. And we are not kind of, guessing either, then. So if you're looking at the third quarter guidance, it's nothing included. And let's see if it will happen in fourth quarter or not. But what we need is guidance for how to file those kind of claims and so forth. And that's not there yet. So we are kind of prudent when it comes to making accruals on that side. It's not included anywhere. And it's difficult to guess if that will impact the fourth quarter or not, but that's where we are.
But I can just add to that also, I mean, that Mats and the team and our entire team and we are working very closely with the related authorities on this. So exactly when it will happen, I think, is -- let's see, but the process is ongoing in anyway.
And we will be there when it happens.
Yes, we will be there when it happens.
Thank you. We turn to Bernstein and Harry Martin.
I wanted to ask about the production ramp in North America in the second half of the year, clearly a significant ramp up to close to peak run rate. It looks like on the data we have industry deliveries or production disappointed a little bit in June. Have you seen any supplier delays or any other issues ramping capacity in the nearer term? And then is there any risk to the outlook for the second half of the year? And then a final sort of related thought or question. Will you use the new plant in Mexico to ease any of these constraints and put some volume into the U.S. market this year as well?
Thank you, Harry, for, of course, very, very important and relevant question now. I mean, -- so far, the ramp-up is going according to plan. But you are right, it has been a rather long period, not only for us as OEMs, but also for our supply base with rather low figures. And of course, now the whole value chain needs to come together in order to really do this ramp-up. So far, so good. But as we will continue to ramp up because that is what will happen now during the later part of the last semester here. Of course, this will be one of the key focus areas, as I alluded to in the presentation.
So full focus on that, obviously. Then when it comes to Mexico as such, I think where we are right now, we can cope with it with the 2 main facilities that we have in Virginia and in Pennsylvania then for Volvo and Mack, respectively. But as we go along and the market will continue not only for North America, but also for other markets here, Mexico will continue -- and we have started, so to speak, the test production there with very good results as well. And we are then planning to gradually softly ramp up during the later part of this year. But that is going according to plan.
That will not be the limiting factor when it comes to final assembly as we are set now for the remainder of this year. It's rather to your point that we are keeping the whole system together. So far, so good, but there is a lot of work to be done now to make that happen.
Thank you for that. We're turning to Bank of America next and Alexander Jones. Please go ahead, Alexander.
Just on EPA '27, the proposed final rules came out last week and included an option of not complying and paying a penalty instead. Does that change your plan at all on how you think about the engines for your U.S. trucks into 2027 and how you expect others to react to? And have you seen any impact on customer sentiment or order trends as a result?
Thank you, Alexander. And I think that is obviously, I mean, a question that is a little bit early out from a customer perspective since it's still in the making. And then as you said, I mean, the final, so to speak, proposal is out there. But I mean, if I start from a Volvo standpoint, we will make sure that we are offering what the customer wants to what the customers want to buy. That means that with this opportunity of providing both the current still really high-performing technology, both when it comes to emissions and fuel efficiency will continue to be there with this proposal as well, of course, as the continuous certification of the next level. Then it's up to the customers to judge whether you want to have that, you can say, offset, you can call it penalty, but I should almost call it as a trading parameter since that will be paid to the government as we see in the proposal.
I think the most important is that we will keep the optionality for our customers to choose the solution that they prefer with a framework that has been decided by EPA here. And there, we have, of course, a strong structure with our regional value chain in place in -- primarily in the United States and for North America.
Good. We're continuing with José Asumendi from JPMorgan.
Martin, just a question on the U.S. and U.S. truck market. Do you see any signals of prebuy effect in the U.S. in the light of maybe potentially trucks becoming more expensive in the U.S. in the second half of the year in comparison -- and the second, Mats, on order backlog on Penta. Can you give us a bit more color on the data center, that proportion of the order backlog is very interesting, is growing very quickly. Can you give us a bit more sense of how quickly data center in terms of orders is growing within Penta by region, geographically, where you see the biggest orders coming from? And I guess this business, this division within Penta will be margin accretive, right?
Absolutely. But then if we start with the first question when it comes to -- that was on the truck market. I should say that I think already when we look at the order book now and the order coverage is rather full for us, given that the rather weak start and to get to the 265,000 total market and our market share ambitions, I think we are where we are basically. So as we said, the EPA '27 possible prebuy. Now as was also discussed in the previous question, there are sort of a new framework that possibly partly can ease a little bit that type of mitigation activity, but that is yet to be seen.
But underlying, I think it's important also to remember that it has been a rather long period now of freight recession and there is a need of starting to replace. And I think it's a very important step also for the customers to be able to choose also from technologies that is well known for them, even if that will then come with a higher cost as from next year. But again, underlying, there is a strong momentum here. Then if I maybe start a little bit with Volvo Penta as well to your point, very strong growth when it comes to the order board, 21% now for Volvo Penta. And that is in light of the fact that the other segments in Penta is also strong.
But what we see is really that with the rapid build-out and also for both the data center operators, but also the final customers, understanding how they can utilize our type of solutions that we are working with key partners, mainly now in the United States, gives also for the backup power solutions, a very efficient way ramping up, both when it comes to the CapEx, but also when it comes to the lead times and capacity, but also when it comes to resilience because you're utilizing our big boards, but there are, of course, small boards in relation to some other alternatives.
But for backup, that is a perfect solution. And I think we have really understood how to work within these ecosystems with key partners. Currently, it's mainly related to North America and United States, but this will eventually play out in all regions in the world, given the importance. And there, of course, the Volvo Penta reach and network through the Volvo system will play a very important role. So we remain very bullish about our own role in this growing segment.
I think you summarized it well. And it's a good profitability on top of that.
Brilliant. We're turning to Nordea and Agnieszka.
I have a question on the kind of profitability that you've seen right now improving in the quarter by 70 bps year-on-year and even more so for trucks. So could you please talk about what you see into H2? Can you keep that kind of improvement trajectory running given stronger volumes, benefits from FX and tariffs and so forth? Or will the higher input costs kind of offset the benefit?
Maybe to kind of summarize the information we have in the report and especially coming to the kind of the sequential development looking coming from second quarter into the third quarter. And I would -- on the kind of the positive side from a sequential point of view, I would highlight 3 areas then. First of all, that we have a balanced production system now with -- and we are ramping as well because, I mean, in the second quarter, we still have parts of the quarter with an under absorption than in North America, but now we are kind of balanced into the third quarter. Secondly, as we clearly stated, the IEEPA recovery of refunds that is also having an impact on the third quarter. And then also that we have a gradual price realization now going forward.
So 3 items on the kind of the positive side when it comes to the sequential development. Turning to looking at more of the -- you can call it challenges then into the third quarter. I mean, first of all, we always have a seasonality into the third quarter. I think that is important to remember then because I mean, we have lower volumes in Europe due to the vacation or the holiday period in Europe. And it is a normal seasonality also this year, so to be -- to remember that.
Secondly, as we clearly guided, if you're looking at the R&D capitalization, we have had the bulk of that in the first half of the year. And if you add first quarter and second quarter together, we have had a year-over-year positive impact of about SEK 1.4 billion for the first half. We are guiding for a full year negative SEK 500 million when it comes to the R&D capitalization effect. So that will also turn a little bit on as a headwind then in the second half of the year.
And then finally, I mean, as you said, I mean, we have the cost inflation, but we are working actively with pricing and the price realization in order to mitigate that. But you can always see kind of timing effect in that as we have an order book as well then. So -- but we are kind of mitigating that effect. So that's in a nutshell, looking at the sequential development into the third quarter and also into the fourth quarter.
And I think on top of it, I mean, it's also that we are very, I mean, positive and focused also on the service business.
Absolutely.
And then always, I mean, sequentially, but I still think that, I mean, the plus 7% underlying that we have now is, of course, giving good support for us.
And also, if you're looking at the fundamentals, I mean, we have -- it's a good utilization, both on the truck side and the machine side. So that is continuing to drive the service business. You're right, Martin.
Good. returning to Danske Bank and Björn Enarson. Please go ahead, Björn.
Talking a little bit about the same topic here, but on the production ramp, can you give us some color on where you are in terms of production planning for the upcoming quarters for trucks and perhaps also CE?
Yes. Thank you, Björn. As we said, I mean, we have been already on -- I mean, on solid and rather high levels in the European production system, obviously, even if we have also been doing certain adjustments there with a continuous underlying strong, so to speak, demand. The other big topic for us, somewhat also in South America, given also that we have seen that with the FINAME financing program, et cetera, and good balance in these 2 systems. And they are, so to speak, also very solid in doing this type of flexibility moves.
Now the full focus or not full focus, but a very high focus is, of course, on the ramp-up in North America. And if you do the math and you have also the figures, obviously, what is the retail deliveries up to June. And if you are thinking about the 265,000 market in total, that requires a rather big effort now of ramping up in United States for us. And that is what we are working on, obviously, and doing that in a number of steps, both for Mack and for Volvo.
Then when it comes to Construction Equipment, generally speaking, in fact, we have the positive development there also on the order intake. We have, so to speak, the right balance and good capacity to cope with that. I think it was plus 8% when we look at the overall figure, so to speak. So -- and sequentially, we have that opportunity. So we are in a good balance there.
Very good. Thank you for that. With all these good questions, we'll let Hampus Engellau wrap up this second quarter Q&A with his questions. So we turn to you, Hampus.
So 2 questions from me. I guess they're linked -- but firstly, with the EPA 2027 truck and engine out from you guys, can you maybe tell us something more on pricing here versus customer feedback on performance, how they are feedbacking on this? And then I'm a bit puzzled on production here. To sell the 2026 truck in next year, it needs to have an engine produced by [December '20]. And how are you balancing it? Are you building more engine inventory in the autumn to bridge this given that you have a higher customer demand for 2026 models? Or are 2027 models from my previous questions sufficient to be competitive at current levels. So if you could maybe talk us through this a bit to understand here.
Thank you, Hampus. And I think also that is, of course, related down to the recent developments that has been announced by EPA that it looks like now that they will allow, so to speak, this bridge solution for the coming 2 to 3 years by utilizing, so to speak, the existing technology, but that will come with an add-on then fee. And ultimately, that will be a customer choice, obviously, because both the technologies and we sit on both the technologies are high performing. Then it comes with pros and cons depending on what type of applications you have.
And as we see it as an early judgment now, it's very important that we will continue to have so to speak, the offerings of the current platform that is really performing for us also with the latest introductions that we have done, both on the 13-liter, but also on the 11-liter platform. But you are right, at one point in time, you need, so to speak, to absorb the new system regardless if you're talking about the new technology, that was the EPA '27 type of execution or continue with the existing technology then with the offset the cost that has been announced -- and we are, of course, looking into what exactly that means.
But regardless of that, at one point in time, you need to mitigate into the new, and that will go for the whole industry and for all customers. So it will, of course, be planning around how to do this now between quarter 4 and quarter 1. But I think with our regional value chain that we are having in the United States for North America, we can be very close in working with this fine-tuning. But let's see exactly how it will play out now because it has been a very recent development, as you are aware of, but we are on to the subject. And more importantly, that we have the portfolio, both for the current and also for what is about to come, and that is what we will work on moving forward here.
Thank you for that. And thank you for all the good questions. All the materials is posting on our website. So with that, we thank you for today, and we see you next time. Have a nice summer.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Good to see you guys.
Volvo B — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Strong Q2: organic sales +7%, adjusted operating margin 11.7%, North America ramp-up and services growth.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Revenue: SEK 126bn, organic sales +7% YoY (organic = excluding currency and acquisitions)
- Adj. Op. Income: SEK 14.8bn (adjusted operating income excludes restructuring and one-offs)
- Margin: 11.7% adjusted operating margin, expanded year-over-year reflecting better mix and services
- Cash & EPS: Operating cash flow SEK 5.8bn; EPS SEK 5.1; Industrial net cash ~SEK 35bn
🎯 What Management Says
- North America: Priority is a controlled ramp-up of truck production and deliveries to close the gap between strong orders and current retail sales.
- Services: Service sales grew 7% organically; management views service contracts as higher‑margin, recurring revenue that reduces volatility.
- Portfolio & Growth: Three‑pronged powertrain strategy (diesel, battery electric, hydrogen), Penta expanding into data‑center backup power, and a planned VFS–Eicher JV in India.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- Truck markets: North America reiterated at 265,000 retail units; Europe raised by 5,000 to ~350,000.
- Financials: Full‑year R&D capitalization effect expected SEK 3.5bn; tax rate reiterated at 24%; Q3 FX tailwind ~SEK 500m.
- Tariffs: Q3 underlying tariff run‑rate ~SEK 1.1bn, but net effect expected ~0 after IEEPA refunds; Section 232 credits not assumed.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- NA ramp-up scrutiny: Analysts pressed on supplier readiness and timing; management says ramp is on track but execution risk remains and Mexico plant will be phased in later.
- EPA '27 uncertainty: Company will keep customer optionality (comply or pay offsets); pricing and product mix decisions depend on final rule and customer choice.
- Costs & tariffs: Freight and material inflation is broad; management is pursuing price realisation, supplier actions and operational efficiency; no accruals made for potential Section 232 credits yet.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Conclusion: Strong earnings quality and cash position with accelerating services and Penta data‑center exposure support resilience, but shareholders should watch North American delivery execution, tariff outcomes and input‑cost pass‑through.
Volvo B — Analyst/Investor Day - AB Volvo (publ)
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to the Volvo Group Capital Markets Day 2026. It is 18 months since last time. And yet again, we are in a special location. This time, the headquarters of Volvo Construction Equipment in Eskilstuna, Sweden. And this month, something extraordinary is taking place here. We have 4,000 customers experiencing our products and services. But that's for later. Now, let's go inside where the live audience is waiting.
[Presentation]
Again, most welcome and especially to you in the live audience. It is great to see so many familiar faces in the crowd. We have an intense couple of hours together where we are going to share our view on how we are thinking strategically and what we are doing proactively to capitalize on our strengths in a very dynamic market.
So let's get into gear and welcome to the stage, the Volvo Group President and CEO, Martin.
It feels really great, Kina. And also from my side, of course, welcome to this Capital Markets Day 2026, Eskilstuna. The sun is shining. And we have a fantastic program this afternoon also because we have the setup, as you alluded to, with the Volvo Days with all the lineup of products, and you will be able to test and feel and get the emotions of the Volvo products and solutions. So welcome, everyone here in the room and, of course, also everyone online. It will be great.
And Martin, we met 18 months ago in this setting. We were in New River Valley. And the theme at that time was gearing up for growth, which is reflecting in organization building capacity and momentum. This year, the theme is built for resilience and growth. Slight shift in language. Why is that?
But first -- I mean, obviously, we have been on a journey for quite some time now and with the objective of continuously building resilience that is important in a business that is cyclical and in a world with many moving parameters. And at the same time, of course, taking the growth opportunities that lies ahead of us. And 18 months is a long period now, a long period. So a lot of things have happened since. And it has been really about continuing to building that position of resilience and accelerated growth. And that is what we will both see the achievements, but also what is about to come. So very exciting.
Very exciting. So resilience and growth, you will recognize will be a major part of our agenda today. We're going to start with geopolitics and how the current situation impacts our markets and our position in it. And then instead of giving you presentations business area by business area, we are going to look at growth opportunities from a segment point of view. And then, towards the back end, how we are investing for our future. Should we get going?
We get going.
We get going. And Martin, I know that many in the audience would like to hear your view on the world around us. So why don't you join me over here?
Absolutely.
So we are going to look at many different aspects of our business today. But I know, Martin, that you wanted to start with something which is really close to our hearts every day, our customers.
Yes. And that is always a tough start because I get emotional thinking about customers. But I think it is like this that, I mean, of course, the Capital Markets Day is tempting to start with the strategies and the big picture and the big bets what we want to do. But at the end of the day, and often, 95% of our time we spent, of course, on focusing on how to making -- how to make our customers competitive, successful. And we often say that, that the revenues and cash flow and earnings and building a stronger balance sheet, they are outcomes. They are not falling down from heaven. They are coming from customers that want to and they don't have to work with the Volvo Group. And that's the reason why we are taking that very seriously and spending a lot of time in all parts of the organization, in our business areas, in our different parts of the value chain to really make that successful. That is very important.
And we say that we live with our customers. And I mean, it's very common that companies talk about customer focus, but you talk about customer obsession rather.
We are B2B, and that means that for every customer, the solution, not a solution. And the solution that is really tailor-made for him or her, meaning that you need to understand the job to be done, and we will come back to that because that is one of the key factors of success in our industry, never compromise the optimized solution for the customer. Then, it's our job to make scale and scope and technology to happen. Customers couldn't care less about that. They want to have an optimized solution for their mission.
And here comes the first tricky question today. Since we met in New River Valley 18 months ago, how many customers have you met?
You asked me this question 1.5 weeks ago. So it's not that tricky anymore. But [indiscernible] to backtrack that also. And we came up to -- I mean, of course, I met thousands of customers since, but with meaningful conversations, more than like 20 minutes, where we have had feedback, 915. So yes, 2, 3 per day the year around. And that is super important for us because at the end of the day, we have millions of -- millions and millions and tens of millions of data points and important feedback, obviously. But that conversation about what is happening, what is the feeling and the different type of stories here. One example, a couple of weeks ago, was about this -- a big customer, by the way, in Europe talking about that, and we had a good conversation on both what we need to improve. It's always about that, obviously. But also he ended that conversation by saying, "Thank you, Martin and the team for bringing my driver safely home". And I mean that is a fleet owner that has more than 2,000 trucks, and that really matters, of course, the driver attractiveness, just as one example.
And just to back up a little bit, 2 every day, 365 days a year, including weekends, that's quite a schedule, I must say.
But I mean, I'm just representing the rest of us. If you ask Stephen or Roger or Anna or everyone here, I mean, that is how we live together with our customers because if we don't understand the job to be done together and build that trust, it will never fly.
Martin, let's change topic a little bit and talk about geopolitics. I mean, I don't think anyone could have guessed where we are as a world today 18 months ago.
No. And I think that is always the case. I mean, some wise guy did say that it is difficult to make forecast, especially about the future. And I think that is more valid than ever, obviously. We have a lot of moving parameters, we know that, and we need to live with that. But it has been so during a long period of time. Now, it's intensifying. Obviously, we have a number of cycles coming together. We have -- I mean, the normal economic cycle, what will happen. We have the geopolitical cycle that is intensifying, we have demographics, we have technology, we have climate and energy transition, et cetera. So there are quite a number of parameters to take into account. But that's the reason why it's so important with the team that we have today because you can look upon that from a challenging point of view, but I think we have a good opportunity to look from an opportunity perspective.
And more in detail, how is this uncertainty impacting the Volvo Group?
No, it's a lot about obviously continuing to build -- that's the reason why resilience matters because, obviously, if you have the ability in the group to react if that is necessary, but more important to act and be ahead of the curve and to do that with flexibility and speed, because that is important, that you continue also to have the right mix in your portfolio, both when it comes to the customer base, but also when it comes to the mix between, so to speak, equipment revenues and recurring revenues such as service. So a lot of these topics we have been working with, and that is a platform for continuous growth, obviously.
And just a couple of weeks ago, you were hosting a visit from Narendra Modi, the Head of State of India. In times of regionalization, how important is such a relationship?
Of course, it was an honor to have the PM Modi, I mean, one of the fastest-growing big economies in the world coming to Gothenburg. I mean, think about that...
Center of the Universe.
Yes. True. I think -- yes, if we should have been humble, we should have been perfect, right? No, seriously, PM Modi together with von der Leyen and our Prime Minister, talking about the bilateral opportunities between Europe and India, but also for us, obviously, an opportunity to talk about a very important region, India for India. Obviously, we have a very strong footprint there when it comes to sales and when it comes to customer base, but also when it comes to India for the world, carry back a lot of great opportunities that we have there.
We are now stepping up apart from technology, digital, also the fourth global industrial hub. We have Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles that is a hidden diamond, I think, for everyone, here included. Last year that ended last of March for VECV. They surpassed 100,000 vehicles for the first time. And with a growth rate that is double digit and with margins that actually are quickly approaching the group's margins. So this is an asset that we are very proud of, both when it comes to that development, but again, how they are taking care about the customers and the whole Indian ecosystem.
There is obviously a lot happening in our industries. And I think a talking point during the spring has been increased competition. You mentioned India, but there is obviously also China. What is your take on that?
Yes, there's India, there is China. There are new entrants. There are technology shifts, et cetera. And I think the first -- I mean, where there is growth opportunities, competition will continuously, of course, intensify. That's natural because there are opportunities for everyone. Having said that, we also see that the competition is not only there, but they are good, they are speedy and they are innovative.
And in a world like that, you need to continue to both maintain your strength, but also accelerate a number of areas, so you are ahead of the curve. But as I said, I think we have, I mean, capabilities, assets, we have people, we have customer base. We have the financial position, but we have the innovation power to get the job done together with our customers. But as in all competitions, and I like that, you need to always get better. And that is why market economy really works, right?
So being the best, that it -- that is what it will take to win.
Yes. I mean being not the best is not an option if you want to compete in a global market, but still being very local.
Talking about innovation and technology, Martin, the last couple of years has been a technology race. We have been investing heavily in traditional technologies, in more sustainable solutions. Going forward, how do you foresee that this will develop?
We see that it is plateauing now. But I think it's more the important reason behind that rather than the figures as such because I think we have been very consistent in our capital allocation. Strong financial position bring really the innovation to the table, and also, of course, good returns to our shareholders.
But if you take that innovations, one thing is that we always will provide what the customers want, meaning that now with the prolongation, and we see a clear prolongation of -- and actually a further acceleration of our combustion technologies, both with the traditional, but also renewables, we continue to invest in that. And we have created a number of platforms for the future that has brought us to a rather high level. Now, we see that, that is plateauing and decreasing.
You can take the BEV, the battery electric long range now, 700 kilometers, best payload, and so to speak, the maintenance schemes, charging times, what have you. And now that platform is there through our modular system, and we can really start to optimize. Then you don't have the same level of investments, but you have the platform to really build from. Same when it comes to certain capacity build-outs in North America, we will come back to for example. So plateauing and a slight decrease, that is not the same that we are stopping our innovation, not at all.
And that brings us to the transition to a fossil fuel-free future. That's the tongue twister.
Well done.
Thank you very much. I've been practicing. So how will the journey towards zero emission play out?
What we see clearly is, of course, that the overarching theme, including, I think, quite a lot in this audience 4, 5 years ago, has slightly shifted, if I put like that. So decarbonization as a theme for regions and governments is still there. But alongside decarbonization as such for the energy transition, it is also about resilience, it is national security and its competitiveness. And you need to act with these 4 factors in focus.
But if you do that, and that's the reason why we're still committed to Paris, for example, because, I mean, if you want to drive the energy transitions from these 4 angles, regional or national security, meaning regional value chains, competitiveness, resilience and decarbonization, that will be a winning formula. So we need to be there, and we want to be there and customers want to be there. But we will come back and talk about that later.
There is an expression that you use quite frequently in our internal events, and that is excelling on the basics will still make you unique. With that as a platform, what differentiates us as a company that will enable us to win?
No. But I think, especially, and we have talked about it, Kina, this morning. When you have a lot of moving parameters that you need to, of course, incorporate and integrate in your -- not only your strategy, but in your execution plans. You need to do that from an angle where it matters for real, regardless if that is new propulsion technology or AI or digital capabilities. And that is really get the job done, build trust with our customers.
And we have an extremely strong platform when it comes to the customer trust. That is an asset and a pride that we can never underestimate. But that is coming, of course, over time to deliver that TCO, to deliver that uptime, to deliver that fuel efficiency, to deliver that safety, to deliver that comfort, not from time to time, but every day. I mean -- and you do that, thanks to great people. And we believe in decentralized organization with the ownership mentality to make it happen. And if you do that really well, it will still make you unique, I promise you.
Martin, you wanted to start this conversation emphasizing our customers. How would you like to close?
No. I mean, closing that is, of course, about the first part here, you see, yes, how do we build customer trust. And when -- I mean, I can take these 915 great customers that we have really talked about, but also the feedback we are getting in other channels and all the colleagues here. Of course, it's about product and solutions, but it's so much about our people and how they are supporting our customers in all parts of the value chain and how our customers feel that, the drivers feel that, their fleet managers feel that, that we are really working closely together. And that feedback is super important.
And often, actually, we have Roger and myself, we talked about that a couple of days ago when we had an issue with -- I think it was '16, '17, we were in Eastern Europe and talked to a specific customer. And Martin is his name as well, by the way. And he said, "Martin and Roger, we need to fix this now". He didn't say you have to fix it now, but we need to fix this now, and that is the spirit. Thanks to our people.
And there truly is power in our people, and bearing in mind that we have 100,000 colleagues all over the world, that is a lot of energy devoted to winning the game. Take a look at this.
[Presentation]
I love this movie.
Yes, I love this movie, but I love our people even more.
Okay. I love the people, and I love the movie. So Martin, we're going to build on what you were saying about being a resilient organization and the fact that we over the last decade has built a platform that enables us to lead from a position of strength.
And to talk more about how we have created performance resilience, let's welcome to the stage our CFO, Mats.
You got a much more cheerful tone than he did.
Yes, I did.
I don't know how.
It's much better music.
Mats, resilience and growth. Why is that important?
The short answer is value creation. I mean, it's essential for value creation, looking at resilience and growth. And I think resilience that really shows the kind of core capabilities that we have in our operations, but also our ability to execute. And I think that is, to some extent, prerequisite when it comes to growth then. So resilience and growth goes a little bit hand in hand, I would say.
Why don't we take a look at our performance journey? And why don't you share your comments?
Yes, it's a good journey. So looking at margin expansion over time. But even more importantly, coming back to resilience, that we have less volatility, and it shows that we have been better in order to manage the business cycle as well. And I think it clearly shows that in terms of the margin development.
Martin?
No, just to add to what Mats is saying, of course, very proud of the journey together with the team here. And I think there are a number of key factors. We talked about flexibility and agility that we have a very clear toolkit, the decentralized decision-making, but also a clear toolkit of doing that. We have been bringing a lot of innovation and technology to the table, where we have been successful also actually to driving commercial conditions and value creation, both for our customers and ourselves.
Service development has been very important. And again then, the recipe for success that we talked about. And I'm very proud to see that this is a journey where all business areas and also truck brands have really make a contribution. So we don't have any clear pockets of drag anymore, I should say, and that is super important, obviously, both resilience and growth opportunities.
And you mentioned services, which is, of course, a core pillar. Why don't we look at our services journey? And maybe, Martin, you can share a few words.
Yes. I mean, also here, a very good journey, as you can see here, over then many years, still opportunities ahead. The most important is actually maybe not the figures. It is really what we see when we have a higher penetration of service content together with our customers. We have a higher retention. We have a higher satisfaction and loyalty. So from a customer perspective, super important. And then obviously, as a very positive byproduct, it is also the recurring revenues for us. So very proud of this that is happening across business areas and geographies.
You can see the smile, Kina. As a CFO, I love service. Then coming back to resilience and growth, I mean, the service business being less cyclical than the new vehicle sales, meaning that, that brings the kind of the stability and resilience. And on top of that growth, I mean, what you can see over this time period, close to 5% CAGR then. And if we're looking at the recent data points where we are today, in fourth quarter and first quarter, between 5% and 6%, so providing growth as well. And on top of that high profitability, so contributing to margin expansion. So service is great.
That explains your happy face. So finally, Mats, let's compare with our peers.
Yes, a little bit the same story over time. But if you're looking at that in relative terms, you can see also a relative kind of improvements when it comes to resilience over time and less cyclicality. And if you're looking at the latest data points here, representing them for truck, buses and engines, we are actually best-in-class when it comes to the adjusted operating margin. So a good development relatively as well.
Martin?
Of course, again, proud of that journey, but I mean, this is a relative, but more importantly, it's an absolute game also to continue to build our story with the potential we have. I would also like to comment Volvo Construction Equipment, I mean, starting on the lowest point then, a little bit more than 10 years ago, and have really built also a very strong foundation. amongst the best now when it comes to margin, the margin expansion. But I think it's time now, Melker, for some growth also, right? So maybe you can come back to us on those.
He will come back to that, I can assure you. So I think it's fair to say we are very proud of this journey. We are happy, but not satisfied. There is lots to do still.
Mats, take the stage.
Yes. And I will elaborate more when it comes to the resilience and growth. But before that, just spending a couple of minutes when it comes to the current situation now in the second quarter in terms of the trading update. And it's very much the same message as we gave when we reported the first quarter earnings then in -- I think it was April 24. Looking at the different regions, we continue to see a solid customer demand in Europe for April and May. So no big impacts when it comes to the Middle East crisis on the demand side in Europe.
Looking at North America, we continue to see a strong customer demand, and we are now taking orders for the third quarter and fourth quarter in U.S. And we are gradually also increasing the capacity in U.S. then. We have a general cost inflation that is gradually increasing, and this is the area where you can start to seeing impacts from the Middle East crisis then, most pronounced when it comes to increases on the freight cost, but also on raw material side. So that will have an impact on the cost side in the second quarter. And then last but not least, we continue to see high utilizations when it comes to the trucks and machines, meaning that, that is driving service revenue as well. So all in all, a very similar message to what we gave when we reported the first quarter earnings.
Turning back then to the more kind of long-term development and to the resilience and growth theme then. You already saw this slide, good margin expansion, high -- being resilient as well and less volatile. But there are also still room for improvements when we're looking at the financial development. Many of you probably recognize this slide from the previous Capital Markets Day. So this shows the adjusted operating income for Group Trucks for 2025.
And in 2 dimensions, basically then, looking at the different truck brands and looking at the different geographical regions. And as you can see, there are big differences between the different geographical regions in 2025. But overall, a pretty good adjusted operating margin given the environment, close to 10%. But the difference then, looking at the positives then in terms of performance, starting with Europe, very good financial performance in Europe in 2025 and especially looking at Volvo Trucks then that has been combining the market share leadership with a good performance. But also, we can see Renault continue to develop in a good way, being close to the group target of 10%.
I would also like to highlight South America, or as you know then, being mainly Brazil then with the footprint for trucks, where we have had a good financial performance despite very, very challenging external environment in Brazil. But this is also reflecting our end-to-end way of working when we have an integrated model in Brazil, meaning that we are swift when it comes to adjusting capacity to demand.
Looking then on areas with room for improvements. North America sticks out in that respect, as you can see here, though, mainly due to the external environment looking at North America with low demand, mainly driven by a very tough financial situation for our customers with yet another year of freight recession in U.S., but also in combination with tariffs and general cost inflation. So room for improvements, but also in our own operational system in North America.
The other one that sticks out being significantly below the target, that's the transformational ventures. And you probably remember that I was quite granular last time talking about the transformation ventures and also guided that we will likely see an impact on the trucks' margin of about 150 to 200 basis points. And that is what you see on this performance there. But going forward, we have done quite a lot on the joint ventures. So what we can see now is between 100 and 150 basis points going forward in impact.
So to summarize, a fairly good development looking at overall profitability, but with rooms for improvement.
Moving into the drivers or how we are driving performance overall in the Volvo Group with a couple of priorities. Martin already talked about the decentralized decision-making that we have. We are working in a decentralized setup, meaning that we have P&L responsibility, accountability far out in the organization. But that is also combined with decentralized decision. So we're utilizing the flexibility tools to adjust to the external environment using the flexibility tools we have in the system.
We have price discipline. You have heard this before. We are adjusting capacity when not using pricing in order to drive volumes. We are increasing the service business. We have already talked about that, and my colleagues will talk much more about the service business, but also how we are driving the total offer being very, very important. And last but not least, cost control. We have a culture of being cost conscious in everything we do, and that is something we are proud of.
Moving in then to the portfolio, and this is also a slide that probably many of you recognize from previous Capital Markets Day as well. We have actually done quite a lot when it comes to the portfolio since the last Capital Markets Day. We have addressed some of the low performers. We have divested SDLG for CE. We have made a decision to exit the ROKBAK business, but we are also adjusting a little bit when it comes to the ventures with a new business model for Flexis. And we are also welcoming Toyota into the cellcentric joint venture, which is important. But we are also making more forward-leaning, growth-oriented changes in the portfolio.
We have the Mexico footprint to facilitate growth. And this is something that Roger, Steve, and I believe, Jens will talk a lot about later on. We have also made acquisitions, and especially looking at the retail and service side, acquiring Swecon for construction equipment and the deal of Western Australia for Volvo Trucks. So very growth-oriented investments. And Nils will talk a little bit more about autonomous later on today, which is also a really exciting growth area that we see.
So to summarize from a financial point of view, we have built resilience, and we are ready to accelerate the growth. And I think this chart really shows that our strategy has been serving us, customers and the owners really well.
Thank you very much, Mats. We will see much more of you later. So please take a seat.
And Martin, looking at this slide, it happens to coincide with the same time period that you have been the CEO of this company. What would you say has been paramount to the creation of resilience under your leadership?
No, it is a teamwork. We are in 150, 160 countries around the globe, and it needs to happen every minute, every second out there. And to give the opportunities for our teams to succeed has been super important for me, for the executive team, and I think we have been successful in that. And also in a good way then combining this customer obsession with the scale needed and a number of other factors that we have been alluding to, but it's teamwork really that is driving that. And that we are long term and consistent in our way of thinking here. Customers must win. That is good for the company. And if that is good for the company, it's good for the owners of the company. So it's -- that's the logic.
But this is not the end of the journey.
It's not the end of the journey. The day you think that's the end of the journey, you should do something else probably.
So still lots to do. Great to hear, Martin.
We're going to drive into the next part of the program and look at the key value levers driving resilience and growth. And now the stage is yours.
Thank you, Kina. And what we would like to do in a couple of minutes is to pull together a little bit the introduction here with a number of main conclusions about what has happened, but more importantly, what is the journey that is about to come for us and what are the key levers, as Kina said here.
The starting point, obviously, is this one that the global demand for transport and infrastructure solutions, logistics and also compounded by a number of factors that we come back to will continue to grow across markets and the underlying trends of that, it's very strong, obviously. So the commercial opportunities there. But each job to be done for different reasons, and I will come back to that. It needs to be more efficient, more safe and eventually more sustainable to stay competitive. So that is the starting point, and we take it from that.
Then obviously, there are a number of very important transformative elements happening now, little bit busy slide. Bear with me, I've done it myself. That's the reason why it's not that professional. But it's an important one because we are super excited, and that's the reason why we love our business is that we are participating in a wealth creation for nations, societies. It's such a clear relation between advanced logistic transport infrastructure systems and the GDP per capita development on absolute level. The more advanced, the higher drive for GDP. So that's a great starting point, right?
But we also know that both logistics and transportation and infrastructure development also comes with a number of side effects. We are constantly improving these side effects, but they are there to some extent. It is about climate, but also pollution in cities. That I should argue for some of the big regions, especially the pollution topic in big cities is one of the key drivers of doing things, right? Noise congestion, talent acquisition is super important, the driver attractiveness. So there are 2 sides of that coin, either autonomous solutions for certain applications, but also constantly evolving when it comes to the driver attractiveness. And then obviously, energy resilience, energy transition.
To move that into green will be the winning formula. But of course, there are parameters that we need to take into account in order to make that happen. The regulatory push is obvious in many different markets and regions, and that is important. Without some of these regulations, things will not happen if they don't have natural links to the market mechanics.
Market mechanics also, of course, very important and customer pool combined with the market mechanics to create the right type of TCO, but also other incentives, market incentives. Enablers, I will come back to, in order to make transformative elements happening. And then, of course, the technology development that is also further than accelerating now. There are, of course, different priorities for different stakeholders here.
But at the end of the day, we need to relate to it together with our customers to be successful. That is how we drive business forward here. And in order to do so, it starts with a job to be done. It's easy to aggregate this to high levels. It's easy to talk about the bigger picture, which we eventually need to do in order to pull together scale, technology bets, industrial footprint investments, et cetera. But at starting point, it starts with this. It starts with the solution for the customer.
And here, I've just taken one example, and I've taken an example that is pretty well known in order to make the point here. And that is typical long-haulage application in Europe, probably 120,000, 125,000 kilometers, quite many more -- many customers doing a lot more there, but we took that for the point. A 4x2 tractor, in this case, diesel ICE operation. And what you don't see in this P&L, because every equipment is a profit and loss statement with the heart, but I will come back to the heart a little bit later, is the revenue generation.
The revenue generation for the customer is, of course, the starting point if you make a P&L. And there, payload, uptime and availability and durability is, of course, super important. And here, we are talking about the cost elements of the P&L. And where you see in this specific application, the vehicle, including trailer, so the equipment as such stands probably for depending a little bit on country, 12% to 14%, 15%.
I would make it clear for you that we are not the cheapest here by far on this diesel execution, if you take a Volvo truck or a Renault truck. But we are pretty competitive when it comes to the vehicle here since we have such a great residual value. So price minus residual value is, so to speak, the component what we look at here, the 12% to 15%. The more important piece of this is how this -- how does that affect the rest here.
Energy efficiency, uptime, driver attractiveness, safety, comfort, availability, both for top line and cost, that logic prevails regardless of region, application, segment. And it will always be the competitive set, the solution for the customer. How do we produce that? We produce that through the total offer. And the total offer is a combination of products and solutions that are eventually opted to be tailored for every application, customer, segment and geography. I will not go into detail here because my colleagues will touch on how we really execute on this in today's landscape. But it is important to continuously build a modular platform around this to be successful.
If we then take another example now, one of the transformative elements because in my -- when I described the transformation, that could be seen as, for example, propulsion technology, moving from a diesel or an internal combustion engine, even from diesel to a renewable or from an ICE, or internal combustion engine, to a battery electric or what have you. Then, if you take the battery electric here, what has happened since we last met 18 months ago, some good news and some a little bit more challenging news.
I will start with the good news, guys. The good news is that the logic here is exactly the same as for whatever. The cost elements might be a little bit different, but the logic starts with the same that you need to specify this to the exact need of the customer for long-haul or for construction or for an excavator or for a bus, right? What we have seen then is obviously, number one, that uptime, availability, safety, but also the infrastructure around will be even more important, right? And we have been early out. We have learned a lot around that, even if it's not scaling yet in Europe and North America, at least, Global South as well.
We have also seen that some of the critical cost components are coming down quicker than we anticipated, but also that the global access of that for companies like us, both when it comes to internal innovation, and of course, also when it comes to our global supply partner ecosystem is there to a higher extent. And that makes us possible also to continue to develop that. And in particular, of course, battery technology, from cell all the way up to pack. But the ability to still tailor-made the solution is there to drive the same type of outcome.
What is a little bit more discouraging about this is that the equation in order to make this happen is going to slow in some of our key markets. Because when we look to this now here, we see that in quite many -- yes, segment by segment and application by application, we are actually getting to a TCO parity or even better in certain cases if you are factoring in the different parameters, city distribution, city buses again there. Where is Antoine? I mean, we see it very clearly there. We see it in some of the segments also for you, Melker, et cetera. So that part of the equation is there.
But what we see is going too slow for certain other enabling conditions. That's the reason why I talked about enablers before in order to make this happen, and in particular, in Europe and North America, but also in Global South, as I said. And I would like to pinpoint infrastructure built out, in particular for the public, and that's the reason why the depot type of solutions are going quicker, the energy and the grid network, but also uncertainties about the TCO parameters when it comes to -- and I will give you an example of that here.
Here, you see how it looks like now when it comes to the adoption of heavy duty. Zero in North America, 2% so far in Europe and 28% in China. And as you can see, it is pretty closely related to some other factors here. Here, you have the number of charging stations in the relevant areas. And there you have the biggest on the public side, and then also, how you have decided to drive so to speak the pricing on public stations.
And when you see these differences, you will not be surprised that you don't have the same adoption level. The trick for us is obviously that we continue to drive that through our modular car system and that we are continuing to refine the products, as I alluded to, with our new BEV and the access to the key technologies here.
The other angle of this, if you leave for one second the transformative elements that will be incorporated, is, of course, that every -- and this is illustrative, of course. But at the end of the day, it's hundreds of thousands of different applications. And every spot here represent just, I mean, Mack refuse or an excavator customer in Hungary or whatever it can be.
And there are no shortcuts. We see some short -- not shortcuts, but we actually see -- that is one of our most interesting, not trials and pilots, but use cases of how we apply digital intelligence and artificial intelligence is we have so much of data so we actually can drive the specification and support our sales force to even better refine that for every customer here. Because at the end of the day, obviously, it will turn out to be all these different type of pie charts.
And one pie chart here with different constitutions when it comes to the vehicle or the machine, when it comes to the fuel, when it comes to a lot of different things, needs to be really understood in order to make the high performance. And the assets we have to make that happen are, of course, quite a lot. But it starts with that we have a very clear view on how we are operating our brands around the globe: Volvo, the Volvo brand, Volvo Buses, Volvo Construction Equipment, Volvo Penta, Volvo Trucks, Volvo Financial Service operating globally.
But of course, also that we have our strong regional brands also to further unleash the full potential. Of course, this is not exactly true. We have Renault Trucks in other parts of the world, et cetera, but where we really have the inertia.
And that we have very strong retail presence, global reach, yes, but extremely local, being there every day. Segment and application excellence enabled by our common architecture and shared technology. That is the essence how we can incorporate and combine the tailor-making with the scale and the technology leadership, innovation leadership and speed to market. And then, of course, in a world with all these moving parameters, regional value chains.
And this is produced based on our recipe for success that we talked about. That customer trust that has been built up for years, a customer base, a growing customer base that is truly trusting that we will do this together, that are living together with us, driving that TCO uptime productivity, safety, comfort, all the different aspects of the winning formula for our customers through a decentralized organization with speed and execution.
Kina?
Thank you so much, Martin, for giving us a strategic look at how we are going to grow. Maybe we can end by showing the different dimensions of growth.
Yes. I mean, you can combine the different dimensions of growth in many different ways, obviously. But we have decided now to talk about it in these dimensions, the growing global demand we have been into also and that you will see more about today, how we are targeting specific regions and growth segments with even higher growth opportunities, still combining our capabilities and assets, and how we through that also can outgrow both in market, the specific strategically selected segments through our total offer and how that finally also will drive content per unit, thanks to the optimization of the solution basically.
And coming to your point, Martin, that part of the resilience that we have created comes from the fact that we are present in so many different segments. And these are segments that we have chosen carefully and strategically and that simply put gives us many legs to stand on. And as I said in my introduction, we are going to focus on the segments today rather than business area by business area, Martin.
Absolutely. And the reason for that is, of course, also that we see a number of these segments coming together where we can combine on one side, our global capabilities, assets, global network with what they need, but also because some of these segments contain enormous opportunity when we are pulling together the capabilities from different business areas. And that is important.
And if you look at it, how it looks now, here, as you see then, the growth segments fitting our core capabilities and common assets. The risk is otherwise that we -- and we love that as well, obviously, that we will talk about our on-road freight, we will talk about the construction, maybe we'll touch on some of these others. But when we look at opportunities now, of course, they will continue here, and you will hear more about that, our core segments, on-road, both long and regional haul as well as construction, enormous opportunities.
But the compounded opportunity that we see in urban logistics, public transportation, and obviously, mining and quarry, where we have -- we are punching under our weight today when we look at our core capabilities and what we can achieve for sure, and we are now focusing on that as well as defense, same here, logistics, autonomous, last mile will play a super important role. Scale will matter with service capabilities. And of course, power generation, it looks 5% here. But -- now, we'll talk about something that I know that you will like how we are growing quickly now when it comes to the AI and data center infrastructure.
So exciting times, Kina.
We have a very exciting hour in front of us. I think you have deserved a break now, Martin. So please have a seat, and we will obviously see a lot of you during the day.
Thank you, Kina. Thank you.
So we are going to accelerate straight into our first segment, which is On-Road. So welcome to the stage, Roger.
So Roger, let me introduce you like with being the man with probably the highest truck margin in the world. How does that feel?
Certain pressure, but of course, we are very humble for the situation, but also then extremely proud of what we are achieving together with our people and our customers, of course.
And you are present in a number of different segments and [indiscernible] is the largest. I would like to leave the stage to you to present how you're going from best to even better.
Thank you, Kina, and good morning to all of you. So at Volvo Trucks, we have a very solid track record of profitable growth regardless of business climate. We have gone through very turbulent times, as you know, but we have continued to drive high profitability. And here you can see on the graph, our strong improvements of net sales and operating margin since 2017.
And if you are going back to 2023, we have the strongest record year in 2023 with a margin close to 20%. We are operating from a position of strength. We have taken significant steps as well of improving our market share, but it's not only to improve the market share. We are improving profitable market share. In Europe, we are the market leader for 2 years in a row with a market share of 19.3%. In Brazil, we have grown our market share with more than 8%, and we are the market leader for the fourth year in a row. In Australia, we are keeping up a very strong and solid position. We have a proven track record to grow our market share. Therefore, are we extremely confident that we can do the same journey in North America?
Our vehicle population, our truck populations is building resilience into our business. We have a vehicle population of 10 years that is 1.1 million trucks running on the roads every day. The majority of the trucks are between 3 to 6 years old. That is the sweet spot of the highest service potential.
If you look at the operating income from Volvo Trucks, we have a high profitability of new trucks driven by strong price realization. But we also then have a very good profitability of the service business, creating a strong resilience into our business, but also that we are extremely profitable in high markets. We will manage high profitability throughout business cycles. Martin was into this, our customers, our fantastic customers. And our business is such an emotional part of our business, and we are emotional as well. But we are working very tight with our customers. We have strong relations with our customers, and we know our customers and their business. We are constantly working on improving customer satisfaction. Today, we have a leading position, and we are winning together with our customers.
I will move over to our growth opportunities for Volvo Trucks. And I will go into 4 areas. I will talk about segments. I will talk about the total offer. I will talk about the services and then also then growth in key markets.
So let's start with segments in electromobility. We started electromobility in 2019. We have today models in all segments, and we have 8 modules in production. We have delivered close to 7,000 electrical trucks to 50 countries around the world. These trucks have been driven in commercial operations more than 400 million kilometers. We have built a lot of competence regarding electrical trucks. We recently launched our next generation of electrical products, improved payload, reduced charging time and then a range up to 700 kilometers. This is a new benchmark regarding the electrical trucks in the industry.
Moving over to our fantastic long-haul trucks. This is a new era of trucks into the industry, setting a completely new standard regarding design. They look completely beautiful. Fuel consumption severely improved; safety, a lot higher safety system; and also, then driver comfort. The all new VNL, 10% fuel reduction. The FH Aero, 7% fuel reduction. You can imagine that impact on the bottom line from our customers. We have strong deliveries of both models in production start. And we have an amazing growth opportunities with these fantastic products to gain further profitable market shares.
Another growth area is mining, construction and quarries. And here, we are working together with Volvo Construction Equipment. We have a broad range of trucks available into these segments. One is the FMX. That product is proven to handle under toughest jobs in the industry. Here, you can see on the stage, the electrical version. It's a powerful truck that runs up to 470 kilometers.
Now, I will move over to our second growth opportunities, total offer. I will explain how we are working and the potential with the total offer. We have a customer that operate in a segment. We will provide a truck model and specify that truck and add all the needed features, then we will get a very profitable truck price, but also a product with a high service potential. Then, we will add parts, workshops, digital services and uptime and connect that with a service contract, preferable a gold service contract during a long duration period.
Next step, we will add financing and insurance from Volvo Financial Services. Now, we have maximized the revenue potential of the product, but we have also given our customer a very profitable product with high residual value and uptime. But we have also then a lot of further potential to drive the total offer and gain further revenues into our business. Total offer is a win-win for us and for our customers.
The third growth opportunity is services in a growing truck population. We have a truck population of 1.1 million trucks, 10 years old. Every time we sell a truck, we are increasing then the truck population and then the service potential. Total offer, it's enabled us to grow than the service potential and secure them the revenues. And we have grown our service contract portfolio with 180% since 2017 to a value of SEK 70 billion. This is secured revenues for the future. But to manage our service growth, we need a very strong distribution network. And now, we are going to build an even stronger distribution network.
Today, we have a distribution network of 2,500 service locations around the world. We own 330 ourselves. Our distribution network is a competitive advantage. We have built this distribution network for over 100 years. You don't do this very fast. And now, we will build an even stronger distribution network. And we will do that by focusing on strengthening the private dealers. We will then grow organically in selected white spots, and we will do that as well with selected M&As.
Moving over to growth in key markets. We have a very solid track record of profitable growth in Europe, South America and in Australia. Now, we will take this proven success and scale that to other regions around the world. And let's look into Europe as a benchmark. Europe is an excellent example of very strong profitable growth. We have increased revenues, we have increased margins.
We have increased resilience and market shares. We have done that by focusing on profitable market shares, total offer and then growing our service business. We have grown our market share to 19.3%, and we are the market leader for the second year in a row. Our European business is very, very profitable. Now, we will do similar journeys in other regions around the world, like in North America. But we can still grow even further in Europe, like in Germany and other countries and also then with services.
Another key region for growth is, of course, North America. We will grow in North America now with our new product range, with new capacity in Mexico with services and then investments by our dealers. We are focusing on segment, very focused, and we are conquesting a lot of new customers. And now, we are increasing capacity in North America due to a very, very strong order intake.
India is also another potential for growth. With the industrial hub in India, we will create opportunities to grow in India and the rest of Asia.
To sum up, at Volvo Trucks, we have a solid track record of driving profitable growth. We are acting from a position of strength. We have a proven record to grow our business. We have the strategy in place. We have the products, we have the network and we have our fantastic people. Now, we will take the opportunities in the areas to grow our business even further to be even stronger.
Over to you, Kina.
Thank you so much, Roger. Crystal clear, as always. Why don't you join me over here because we are going to dig a little deeper into some of the key areas that Roger presented, and I would also like to ask Stephen to join us.
So we are going to focus specifically on North America. And it was pretty clear during our last Capital Markets Day, the market share ambition that we have in North America, 25% combined Mack Trucks and Volvo Trucks. And as Martin said, it has been a fairly challenging market out there. So with a finger on the pulse, where are we, Stephen?
Well, again, if I go back 18 months ago, when we looked at our heavy-duty market share for Mack Trucks, we were running about 6%, 6.5%, 6.7% share for about 3 years in a row, really driven by constraints in the supply channel and also some capacity issues. I'm glad to say we've worked extremely hard as an organization to solve those issues.
And if I look at 2025 results, we ended up at 8.7% heavy-duty market share. And more importantly, if you look at the last half of the year, we ended up at 9.3% market share. So 6.7% last half of the year in '25, now 9.3%, and we continue to see good momentum for market share. And this is driven primarily from just recapturing our business on the vocational side.
That's a good start. Roger?
We see where we are, where we are after May 2026, and we are taking the steps in the right direction. And it's important that we take steps and then growing shares and then profitability at the same time. And as Stephen, more into then, that we are doing it together in a good way. We are building ourselves stronger. We are rolling out now the products. We are building the network, and then, the capabilities of people as well to handle the higher volume that we are planning for.
And if we go a tiny bit deeper, can you share what we're doing specifically to gain more market share?
No, as I said in my speech here as well, it's important that we are conquesting new customers. We need more customers to gain market share. We need -- we cannot build this with the customers that we have today because we need to swim in a bigger lake, so to say.
Conquesting customers, it's super important and that we have the whole network with us to do that. To do that, we need to have more feet on the streets, more salespeople to do it. And then, when a weaker population is growing, we need to have more technicians. We need to build out the network to cope with the higher weaker population and to grow our volumes and the market share.
Stephen?
Yes. I think I said we've got the core business going in the right direction, but there's this long-haul segment that represents 43% of the heavy-duty industry in the U.S.-Canadian market, and we've not tapped that yet.
The good news is with the launch of our Pioneer and our all-new Anthem last year, we now have the truck to do this. This is a leading technology, 11% fuel economy, ride and drive and comfort are incredible. And the feedback we have from our customers shows that this is a truck that's going to help us recapture our fair share of that long-haul business. So super excited about where we're going with the long-haul truck.
So when we were in River Valley, we showed a photograph of a piece of land in Monterrey, Mexico, where we planned to build a new plant for both Mack and Volvo Trucks. Stephen, 18 months later, what does it look like today?
Well, I was there 18 months ago with Jens and the team, and wow, what a change. I mean, the fact that we've been able to greenfield a brand-new plant, building trucks as we speak and do this on time, on budget, just remarkable. And it just shows the dedication and the passion for our team of delivering this project, which will lead to higher truck sales for both brands in North America.
So as Stephen said, and complement to that one, but it's not only the building. You see the building looks just amazing. And here, we will build a lot of trucks then for Mack and Volvo. But it's also then to connect the whole supply chain with suppliers building up that strength and then growing the business and growing then the volume. Jens will come back to that later. But we need to then work end-to-end from our suppliers out all the way to the customers and our dealers. And that is what we are covering now to really make it happen to take the next step.
And Stephen, Roger, you said it's in your speech, another key area is obviously distribution.
Yes, super important in North America. We've seen a reduction of the ownership, which is important because we have big, strong dealers. We're now about 85 dealers, about 485 locations. These dealers have invested. They continue to invest, not only in facilities, but in people, in technology, in inventory, and they are passionate about growing the business.
No. What we are doing is well, we are having a detailed way of working with the dealers, how we are following up the dealers, how we are tracking them the performance, how we are tracking them that they are doing the investments and then taking the capabilities because it's not enough that we are building a factory. We need to get it out into the distribution, and we need to then get the support of the customers.
So the building blocks are in place. It's all about execution. Thank you for now, Roger. You will be joining us for the Q&A later.
And for you, Stephen, it is time to go a little deeper, looking at how Mack Trucks is driving forward to reach our targets, please.
Super. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Super happy to be here in Eskilstuna. Just 6 years, I had the opportunity to be part of Volvo Construction Equipment. So it's good to come back to the headquarters here. But today, I want to talk about Mack Trucks. And I'm really excited to kind of give a direction on where we're going, what's happening and what outcomes are we starting to expect.
So in North America, we really have 4 areas -- for Mack Trucks, we have 4 areas we're focused on. U.S. and Canada, that is our biggest opportunity. We also have our export market, which I'll deep dive a little bit here in a few moments. We have an Australian business, which is our commercial sales organization, leveraging the Canadian -- or leveraging the Australian dealers that we have access to. And we also have our production in Brisbane. So a really good opportunity for Mack to continue to grow in Australia.
And then, our last opportunity is Mack Defense. Today, it's a fairly small operation, but we've been building up because the Department of Defense now has 3 major projects that they'll be bidding on, and we'll have a high potential to win some of these business. Our prototypes have gone extremely well. The feedback from the Department of Defense is that we're doing what we need to, to have the right product, and we're looking to bid these out in the next couple of years. These could be 2,000 trucks a year over a 5-year period up to a 10-year period. So lots of opportunity for Mack to take advantage of our commercial Granite and build out a military product.
I would also say that we see -- starting to see an improvement, and I think Roger talked about this in our order intake. The first quarter was very soft on an annualized basis. It's about 170,000 truck heavy-duty market. That's extremely soft. But we are seeing improvement in order intake. We are seeing a small prebuy. And what I'm happy to see is that a large percentage of our orders are sold orders, meaning that we actually have names tied to those accounts. Our dealers are also stocking up for those customers who have not made their mind up to purchase in anticipation of, again, stronger sales.
Great feedback from our Pioneer, as I said earlier. One bit of note, 45% of our sales are coming from Conquest customers. So for me, that's a really good indication that we're going to hit it out of the park with our Pioneer and our Anthem. As I said, the feedback has been super good, 11% better fuel economy, much better ride and drive and a much more comfortable cab leading to what we think is the standard in the industry.
Also, we launched in Motor Speedway in Las Vegas a couple of months back our vocational lineup, a renewal of our Granite, which is a key core product for us and also the launch of our Keystone product, which is both an on- and off-highway tractor added to our existing portfolio. So again, more to come, but we're very excited about where we are in the U.S. and Canada for that market.
And now, I'd like to kind of move over to another slide and talk about where we are from a total market. So if we look here, you can see 28% of our market is the vocational side, 29% is the regional haul side and the largest being the long-haul segment at 43%. You'll see some good growth already in our vocational segment as we've recovered lost sales. And you can see '25 moving from 11.5% to 13.7%. We continue to see good progress here. And again, quite a good order board going into next year.
On the regional haul side, again, also improvement as we started to improve our supply base going from 7% to 8% to 11% last year. And again, good momentum going into this year and into next year. And then extremely important for us is the long-haul segment. You can see even in the best of times a 2.5% market share. This is our opportunity to expand, again, 43% of the market, 2 new products that we feel will help us reach this in the matter of a couple of years.
And then lastly, we'll move to the export market. This is an area that we're really excited to return to. We used to have a very strong presence when it came to the export market. We've selected about 18 countries that we're really focused on. But if we were to pinpoint, there's 3 markets for Mack that are super critical. The first is Mexico. This is about a 25,000 truck market. We now have Mexican trucks built for Mexican customers, and this will be a game-changer for Mack. Instead of exporting from the U.S., we'll now have local trucks for local customers. And then, of course, we'll also be able to export those products from Mexico into Latin America.
And when I look at the other 2 countries that we're really focused on, it's Colombia and Chile. These are really good mature markets where you have strong fleets that are investing heavily in new technologies, sustainable technologies. And so again, we feel like we're now at the right point in time to launch our product going into EU -- sorry, into Mexico that will have both EU5 and EU7 technology to meet the emissions level. So again, super, super excited.
And with that, Kina, I'll turn it back over to you. And again, thanks for your time.
Thank you so much, Stephen. A lot is done, but still much to achieve. Listen, we communicated some time ago that you will actually be joining the next CMD either from your port or maybe the beach.
I'm picking the beach.
You're picking the beach. I was going to say the golf course, but you're picking the beach.
Yes. No, again, after 30 years with the group, super successful to -- and be a part of this amazing organization. I think Martin and the team have just done incredible jobs, and I couldn't be more proud. We have an excellent leader coming on board, Wilson Lirmann. I've known Wilson for a number of years. He's led the Brazilian market for a number of years, run one of the largest distributors. I'm super excited to work with him in the transition, and I know he will continue to drive the Mack portfolio even further down the road. So thank you very much.
Thank you, Stephen. So I have a question for you in the audience. Has anyone been in San Francisco lately, hands up? Melker, you're not -- there we go. Did you try a driverless taxi? You did. In San Francisco or in the other 15 cities in the world where you can find autonomous taxi drives. Autonomous solutions are really happening. And we are now going to spend some time looking at how autonomous is exploding in our business and to help us with that is, of course, Nils.
My friend, so since we last met, a lot has happened in the autonomous space. And I was listening to the Uber CEO some time ago, and he was saying that in 15, 20 years, the vast majority of Uber rides will be driverless.
Yes, absolutely. And I think the robotaxis are actually paving the way. They're paving the way for autonomous trucking. But I believe actually that deployment curve for autonomous trucking will be steeper, and it will go faster. BCG recently said that by 2035, 30% of all truck sales will be autonomous trucks. So we have something ahead of us.
And we -- that's a great opportunity, and I'll leave the stage to you to explain how we are going to lead the market.
Thanks a lot. Martin has said it already. The global economy really relies on transportation. Transportation, in essence, is the backbone of our economy, but it's also the backbone of our modern society. And putting physical AI on the road through autonomous transport solutions, we are creating new growth potentials for our economies.
By that, physical AI turns into an AI, which has a pulse and a purpose. It is the bridge between digital innovation and the physical movement of goods in our society. It is about sensing, thinking, acting with a level of precision that never gets tired, that never loses focus. It's about making split-second decisions, safety critical decisions in a world which can be messy, in a world which can be unpredictable.
We are putting physical AI to work right now, and we are at the brink of making it happen. We will start introducing autonomous transport solutions to the U.S. market. It is a large addressable market. 70% of all goods are already today transported by trucks in the U.S. Last year alone, the market accounted for USD 900 billion in revenues, and it is a growing market. Mass customization, urbanization, online purchase pattern, that are driving the growth, and it is structural growth. But it is a growth, which is meeting a market which already today suffers from legacy problems, from bottlenecks. It's a market which is set for disruption.
We all know about driver shortage. Already 80,000 driver positions are not filled today. It's forecast to double by the end of the decade. The shortage of drivers, of course, that leads to high driver costs. But the human truck driver can only operate 10 to 11 hours a day. Our autonomous truck is always available. We will add significant transport capacity.
Delivery reliability is an other well-known industry problem. Our autonomous truck doesn't need a coffee break, doesn't need a lunch break. Our autonomous truck is always available. Our autonomous truck is not limited by legal maximum driving hours. We're enabling predictability of delivery time, and we are enabling constant life tracking of the goods.
Road safety, today, very much impacted by driver fatigue, by the reaction time of the driver and the overall human error. Our autonomous truck is never tired. It's always awake. It sees with modern sensors much further than the human eye can see, and it has a constant 360-degree awareness of its environment at any second of the day. That contributes to road safety, and it also supports fuel efficiency, and it will help driving insurance costs down.
But we do more than just addressing the pain points. It's about creating new value. That's what Mats Backman said. With our autonomous trucks, we will double the asset utilization. I said it already. A truck today can operate 10 to 11 hours. We can double that with our autonomous truck, 100% more productive. That step changes the economics of trucking. It's a paradigm shift, and you cannot afford not to be part.
We're also enabling fleets to grow. If you're in the U.S. today and you run a large fleet, you basically have 2 core competencies, the transportation business and hiring of truck drivers, because the turnover ratio of truck drivers in the U.S. is 90% annually. We're fixing that problem with autonomous trucking.
Now, we have faster deliveries. Our trucks can go further. They can drive longer. And by that, we're taking down delivery time. We do longer distances in less time. The result then is a scalable, capital-efficient, higher-margin transport model with a structural long-term demand from shippers, from carriers, from 3PLs and from transport platforms.
The industry forecasts that by the end of this decade, by end of 2030, the installed base of autonomous trucks will be 25,000. But only 5 years later, that number goes up to 220,000. In other words, in less than 10 years, 1 out of 10 trucks you will see on a U.S. highway will be driverless. And that is a consequence of the step change in trucking economics. You cannot afford not to be part.
But autonomous trucking is more than just replacing the human driver with a virtual driver. Autonomous trucking is a new transport system, and each transport system has its own ecosystem. And we've built exactly that, and we call it Autona/freight, because the business model, the business model matters. It is a key question. Transport as a Service, our way to go to market, will unlock the large-scale adoption of autonomous trucking because we remove the main barriers for market entry.
By offering autonomy as a fully managed service, we lower the upfront capital requirement, and we will shift the operational, the safety, the regulatory responsibility away from the customer. We simplify the adoption through a single partner model, a single partner model. If you are a customer, you don't deal with an OEM, you don't deal with a virtual driver company, you don't deal with a dealer. You don't try to find a terminal operator. You don't need to hire operators. You don't try to chase insurance for an autonomous truck. You have one solution. This will drive adoption.
And with our approach, we are unique, and what we've built, our solution, we call it Autona/Freight. It is difficult to replicate, and it gives us a competitive advantage. We have invested in this for a couple of years. We know what we're doing. We know this industry. Important is, we're good to go. Next year, Q1 2027, we will start operating. This is our driverless launch.
In Q1 next year, we will have trucks on open roads without a human in the cab. And then, we will introduce during the year autonomous trucking to more and more customers. And by the end of Q4 next year, we'll have more than 300 trucks out on the road on the U.S. highway operating autonomously. 2028 and the years above, we will then utilize our strong position, and we will scale, and we will scale at industrial level.
Let me summarize. We have a very large addressable market. We have a very strong value proposition. With our solution, we will be 100% more productive. We will double the asset utilization. We have built a Autona/freight, our unique ecosystem, which is difficult to replicate, which gives us a competitive advantage. We are in this business almost 100 years. We know how to manufacture. We know how to industrialize. That enables me to say now that we are approaching our ambition to generate USD 3 billion revenues within 5 years, USD 3 billion revenues, which are having margins, which are accretive to the group.
Our agenda, our time line, our value creation is clear. As a brand, we have very solid customer relations, which we can nurture. As an OEM, we know how to industrialize, we know how to scale. Volvo, we are a first-mover, and we are here to scale this business. And this is what we've planned for from the very beginning.
Thank you so much, Nils. That's very exciting. I have been standing behind my desk there listening, and I'm kind of wondering what's in it for me as a consumer.
What's in it for you? Yes. We were -- not long ago, we were together in New York, right? You remember? And if we would be today in New York, and as it's season for strawberries, we actually come back to your [indiscernible], San Francisco, California, that's where the majority of the strawberries in the U.S. are actually grown. But there's a problem with the strawberries in the U.S. in the sense of that it takes 4 days to move them from California by truck to New York. But if you pick a strawberry, the average lifetime is then 5 to 7 days. So whatever you have on your plate then is not really, really fresh. Now, the autonomous truck does it in 2 days. So Kina, if I would offer you an autonomous strawberry, would you prefer that over a normal strawberry?
I would prefer going to New York and eat an autonomous strawberry in Hills if I could choose.
Thank you.
Like...
No, very good.
No, no, no. Thank you so much, Nils. Thank you. I thought he could leave with the strawberries. I think actually I share them with the audience to get some energy. I give them to you. You can pass them around. Thank you.
So it is clear that the On-Road segment is looking extremely strong with great potential for resilience and growth. And now, we're going to continue with another segment, adding a lot of value to society that is urban logistics and people transportation.
And I'm sure that all of you have heard the term urbanization. And it is estimated by the year 2050 that 70% of the world's population will be living in cities. And that basically means that all population growth going forward will be urban, adding approximately 2.5 billion people to cities over the 3 coming decades. So with this comes a lot of challenges, of course, but also for a company like us, a lot of opportunities. So to discuss this segment, let me welcome Antoine and Anna.
So Anna, let me start with you. What are the drivers that makes this segment so special?
I mean as more people live and work in cities, there is this increasing demand for efficient and reliable and safe public transport to make this environment function. So here, our solution really matters. And it's also very exciting in this segment because the transition to electromobility is really happening now.
Today, 40% of the buses that we sell to the city segment is electric. And by 2030, this will be 80% if we are successful. So a lot of transformation happening here as we speak. And as Martin also shared earlier, in addition to the positive climate impact and reduction of bad air pollution, these vehicles are quiet. So it opens up for new ways of city planning and also make cities more pleasant and attractive to live in.
Do you see the same, Antoine?
Kina, no. I see the same. I would say that this megatrend of urbanization is calling for an improved logistics system, primarily on the efficiency side, but as well on the electrification side, we see more and more electric vehicles running around the cities. And that's a faster-growing market. And you said it, given the density of those urban agglomerations. And if I take one example, as the light commercial vehicle business, which is where Renault Trucks is operating for medium and heavy vans, we see the market size today at around 1.5 million units, sizable in 2025 with an expected growth of about 10% by 2030. And that's a fantastic opportunity we expect to grab as Renault Trucks.
And I know that Urban Logistics is very exciting for you at Renault. Why is that?
Because at Renault Trucks, really, Urban Logistics has been in the DNA of the company for more than 130 years. When you look at our product range, Renault Trucks has the widest product range in the company and one of the widest in the industry in Europe. We are going from 2.8 tonnes with a small traffic van to more than 50 tonnes with a heavy-duty truck. And we are offering heavy-duty kind of service to our B2B customers. And I would say our customers love it. Our dealers love it as well because that's a good complement to our offer. And that's why we believe that Renault Trucks is very well prepared to address this growth market.
Anna, turning to you. I mean, you have been on a fantastic journey during the last years here, improving and creating resilience in your margins, moving from minus and now almost 10%. Very briefly, how did you achieve this?
Yes. I mean we've been on this journey. As you said, we call it our performance journey where we have focused on developing our business and setting a structure where we can deliver sustainable profit over time. And I believe the past years now, we have really proven that our strategy is serving us well and that we have built resilient, we have built flexibility to maneuver various external headwinds while protecting and also improving our profitability.
And today, Volvo Buses, we have a very solid coach business, representing 70% of our total sales. We have a selective approach in the city bus segment. And in both segments, we are truly driving solution sales, so sale of products and services combined to support our customers with productivity, uptime and safety. And 2 years ago, we completed a structural change to our setup in Europe, where we moved from producing complete buses to focusing on chassis production and working with partners for the bus body production. And this change of the model have resulted in lower breakeven points and also increased volume flexibility.
And now you have created this position of strength for yourself. How will you leverage it going forward? And where do you see growth opportunities?
We will continue to focus on profitable growth. We will continue to leverage on our existing structure that is very much set for just profit and growth, and we are now operating from a position of strength. We have ambitions to grow both in the city and in the coach segment. In Europe, we are preparing for substantial growth coming into our focus markets from low levels, but now with new product introductions step-by-step growing back. In North America, we have leading positions in the coach segment with more than 40% market share, both in Canada, in U.S. and in Mexico. So here, the primary focus is to keep those positions and continue to drive our service business.
Then, in addition to that, we also have ambitions to grow our business together with our joint venture partner, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles, and we will start this year with selected markets in Africa coming in with new product offerings. So a lot of things happening in our company. Coming back to the city bus segment that we were into here in the beginning. The shift to electric buses is happening as we speak. And here, we meet fierce competition. So our focus is to continuously improve our product offers, so we can provide the best total solution to customers so that they, in turn, can enable sustainable and resilient public transport to citizens.
That was a very long list of growth opportunities that you presented, Anna. Antoine, you have also made an impressive journey when it comes to improving margins.
No, indeed, the Renault Trucks of today is very different from the Renault Trucks 10 years ago. And Mats mentioned it earlier this morning, then we are -- we have been in strong black figures for a number of years now, close to the company target. And how did we do it? And primarily along 3 main dimensions. The first one was to leverage our medium and heavy-duty range, which is a strength of the Volvo Group, of being part of the Volvo Group, where we recovered the trust of our customers, not only our customers, but we managed as well to expand our market share to 9.5% today in Europe, quite a significant move. And we as well applied a very strong pricing discipline, pricing, pricing, pricing every day. And as a fact, today, when we discuss residual value, which is really, I would say, the pulse of where the brand stays in Europe, now Renault Trucks in many markets is #3 and in some markets, #4, right? Then that's an outstanding result.
The second dimension we've been focusing on is, similarly to what Roger explained, to have a far better service delivery, more consistent delivery to our customers across the network, in Europe primarily, but as well in some international markets. We have 1,500 service points, and we want them to offer the same service, a total of concept across the globe.
And last but not least, this is what we've been talking about, this LCV business, which is a bit peculiar in the Volvo Group. We are the only one with this range, and we made it a profitable business with our partnership and co-investment with Renault Cars. And now we are cruising at a decent pace and only creaming the market, right? We are not competing with the commodity players. We are more creaming the market with B2B customers, which are happy with B2B service, right, uptime and I would say, on-time delivery.
So you have also created a position of strength for yourselves. Going forward, how will you gain market share and grab those growth opportunities?
Today, we have established a dedicated organization on LCV, right? We are as well developing new solutions, and you see it on that slide, again, applying a similar formula as the heavy-duty trucks, we are now moving to what we call customer adaptation or tailored solutions for our customers, uptime, guaranteeing uptime. And you need to know that this LCV segment is adopting electrification much faster than the heavy-duty side. We are at 12% to 15% in Europe. And with the recent developments in the fuel price, it's moving up. And we are launching with Renault Cars in H1 2027, the first software-defined vehicle platform, which was part of Flexis, and now it's going to be called Renault, I would say, Renault Trafic E-Tech. And that's coming up soon, very successful expectations since the product is outstanding.
And very briefly, what will this lead to?
This will lead to doubling the business. That's our expectation, doubling the business for Renault Trucks at the horizon of 2030. Profitable today, even more profitable tomorrow.
And you know that we will come back on that when you give a number like that.
I'm sure, I'm sure.
And now you talked about competition and competition changing. And the 2 of you are probably the 2 in the group that meets this competition in your -- in the market every day to the most. Still, customers work with you. Why is that?
I mean, first and foremost, I think our customers trust us. When we go into a market, they know we are there for the long run. We invest in local resources. We build competence. We build local partnerships, facilities. We are there to support our customers. And this way of working over many years has built very long-standing relationships and also knowledge of our customers' business. So to meet this competition, of course, we need to continuously improve our competitiveness, but also to build on this strength with the local regional presence and the strong Volvo Group global backbone.
Antoine?
I agree with Anna's arguments. I believe as well that the strong network we have, dealer network, is definitely a strong asset. Roger said it, 2,500 for Volvo Trucks, 1,500 for Renault Trucks. I mean, when you look at France, we have more than 330 service points. That's a clear barrier to entry, I would say, and a clear strength of our footprint.
Thank you so much for now. Please take a seat. We're going to move into our third segment, which is Construction and Mining.
And we are going to welcome to the stage the Head of Volvo Construction Equipment, Melker. Where's Melker?
[Presentation]
Sorry, Kina.
It is so typically you.
I promise this will never ever happen again.
I'm sure it will. What was that obvious question? Is it a stunt driver or AI-generated?
Actually, it was me.
I don't believe you.
It was me. And actually, I can tell you that yesterday, we had an opportunity with the team here to be out on the playground. And I must say that I was quite impressed by the skills of the team also. So we stay close to our customers and by that, close to our products.
And we know how to operate the big machines. So Melker, we have been speaking about the Volvo Days. What are the highlights?
Obviously, a big number of customers being here 4 weeks, you were a part of -- a little bit of part of that evening, and you will be a bigger part of that today. Of course, we are demonstrating our products, machines, services. But even more actually, we are demonstrating our hospitality, how we treat our customers, how we take care of our customers and how we care about the customers' business. And one thing that makes me really proud and happy is the feedback from the customers when they meet our people, because we have more than 600 employees engaged in these days during June. And when they meet the product experts, the business experts, they just love it. That is Volvo Days.
And we just saw some happy faces on the screen. Melker, you have also built a resilient organization during turbulent times.
Yes, I agree.
Agree. And by that, I'll leave it to you to dig even deeper.
Thank you, Kina. I think Martin was quite clear earlier here about expectations on growth, right? But I would like to start with this slide. We have proven ourselves now when it comes to margins, when it comes to resilience, when it comes to profitability. And as we know, that has been done during a period with a lot of external challenges, external headwinds. On the other hand, that's a lot of things that you cannot influence. So instead, do what you can, influence what you can. So we're taking a lot of actions, exiting paving business. We are discontinuing the Rokbak brand and the Rokbak business. And during the autumn last year, we divested our ownership in the JV in China, SDLG. And the combination of this with the actions and the earnings and profitability gives us the possibility to invest, to invest in the future, to invest in growth and even more important, to invest in the Volvo brand.
There are, of course, a lot of different things, people behind the improved performance, but there are also 2 structural reasons. One is our global geographical spread, which is, of course, helpful during many times. Secondly, we are present in all industry segments. Being in all segments is, of course, helpful for us to maintain stability over the cycles. But when it comes to growth, we have decided to have an extra focus on 3 segments: Construction, Mining and Quarry. And we take them one by one and look at Construction. That is today 50% of the Volvo CE revenue. It's big, it's growing. Demand, of course, coming from big infrastructure investments, urbanization, population growth. This is actually a very good fit to our investments we are doing in the excavator range and the excavator footprint.
Moving into Mining. Everyone loves Mining, right? We also love Mining, big, growing, of course, energy transition, supply chain security questions, et cetera. In Mining, uptime and productivity is key. And when I think about it, our products, our portfolio, our capabilities fits very well into Mining. And here, I see a big opportunity for expansion and growth, not at least within services.
And then we have Quarry and Mining, very diversified business, very local business, fits Volvo CE and the Volvo Group very well with the way of working and our broad network, so to say. And here, I must say, Roger was into it, but the lineup we have in the Volvo Group now, if we take all the BAs, everything we can provide, then we cover a big, big part of the customer needs in these segments. And on top of all of this, all these 3 segments also see or have an increased need of sustainable solutions.
I'm quite sure that you all have your projections of these different segments. We have, of course, with the CE, Construction Equipment, lens and some external research, we have our view. And we believe that these segments will have a yearly growth of some 5% to 6%. And of course, our clear ambition is that we should grow quicker than the market here.
Then I guess the obvious question is, how, how are we going to do this? And thanks to our heavy investments we have been doing, start with the products. We have renewed more than -- or around, I should say, 50% of our portfolio. Today, it's BEV, it's ICE, it's grid connected. And we see now that we have up to 10% productivity gains. Productivity is then tonnes per hour. We have up to 13% on the efficiency, fuel consumption or energy consumption per hour, which gives significant better TCO for our customers, 20%. That's a lot.
We have also invested a lot in new services, services that help our customer to improve the bottom line, uptime productivity services, site solutions, parts, pay per, we call it Equipment as a Service, growing, rental. And I think we can say that we're a little bit proud because we have had good and profitable growth here the last years. And the combination of this now -- the combination of this is that we have the capabilities now to provide the solution for the customer. The solution for the customer, that is what is the perfect complete customer offer.
Another very important parameter for us in the growth journey is our decision to move more into retail. And with the acquisition of Swecon in the beginning of this year, we now have the direct customer interface in key markets like Sweden and Germany, very important. Of course, this will help us to drive the long-term transformation of our construction business. But even more important now maybe this will help us to drive penetration of service contracts, penetration of parts, penetration of workshop hours. And if you take Europe now, revenue from own retail moving from 30% up to 65%, of course, give a very, very good position for us to continue to drive the growth here together with our customers.
We have also taken some decision to invest globally to make sure that our Industrial footprint is matching our commercial footprint. Most important now is excavator expansion, excavator capacity. And we are investing SEK 2.5 billion into our main site in South Korea, Changwon. We are investing in Shippensburg in U.S. Actually, the first excavators was coming out from that plant just a couple of weeks ago, very good for the situation in the U.S. And last but not least, as we speak, we are building our plant here in Eskilstuna in Sweden. And being a Swedish company, being in Sweden today, to have the opportunity to prove that we can be competitive building a vehicle plant in Sweden 2026 is just great. And the regional value chains with shorter lead times will be very important for us in the growth journey.
So to summarize, we have created profitability and resilience. We are investing in products, services, retail footprint. We are close to our customers. We are focusing on segments that we know will grow. And we have better possibilities than ever to grow quicker than the market. That's my answer.
Thank you, Melker.
Thank you.
Have a seat. Stay in your chair.
I will.
Because I'm going to ask you to come up in a little while as well. So Melker.
So when working in a diverse company like the Volvo Group, you get lots of different questions from you in the analyst and investor community, from media and from others. And lately, our last 2 segments have gained a lot of attention. It's Power Generation and it is Defense. And we're going to start with Power Generation. So let me welcome Anna. So Anna, I think it's fair to say that everything about Volvo Penta is Power Generation. I mean you're, of course, well-known for your marine business, but you have been part of the Industrial branch since the very start.
Absolutely. I mean we live and breathe Power Generation in Volvo Penta. And of course, we are at sea, you all know that. But we are also on land, and we have been that since we, as Pentaverken, delivered the first engine to the first Volvo car, and that was 99 years ago. So it's not a new thing for us.
And you are an incredibly innovative company.
Yes, we are. Innovation is a very integral and important part of the Volvo Penta culture. And we have launched many groundbreaking innovations over the years. And I would say that we have redefined marine propulsion and boating again and again. And now we are also pushing the boundaries with our Industrial products with the latest addition, our G17 that is specifically targeted then to power generation and data centers in the U.S.
We are curious to hear your growth story, please.
Thank you. Thank you, Kina. And thank you, and welcome all of you here. So Volvo Penta then. We have grown our revenue -- we have doubled our revenue over the last 10 years. So that's a CAGR of 8%. And that is done with both Marine and Industrial. Today, Marine and Industrial represents 50-50 of our revenue. And as you can see here, we have done that by increasing significantly the revenue per unit sold. When it comes to the Marine business, that growth is very much coming from that we have increased our scope of supply. So we have from the propeller to the helm station on the vessels. We have also grown into larger vessels. And I would say that this is based on our innovation. The IPS system and the features that we have built on the IPS are fundamental drivers for that growth that you see here.
When it comes to our Industrial business, we have grown volumes. And we have, in particular, grown volumes when it comes to our off-road business. We have been successful in growing into heavier application, heavier usage applications, being very positive for our parts sales. And today, the service business represents 30% of the Volvo Penta revenue. And I would say it's still a further growth potential for us as we move forward. And as you can see here to my right, we have accomplished this profitable growth with a very asset-light operating model.
So what is then the secret sauce of Volvo Penta, you can wonder. First of all, the synergies in production and in technology with the Volvo Group are absolutely fundamental for the business model of Volvo Penta. That gives us access to high-volume automotive parts that we can bring to new segments that you can see here to the right. And this represents some of our most important segments that we are addressing.
Here in the middle, you see Volvo Penta, and we are not only adding innovation. We are adding deep application engineering excellence, and we are adding a very close cooperation with our OEM customers. We are investing heavily in R&D on a yearly basis, 7% to 8% over the last couple of years. And we are doing that to develop our solutions to fit all of these segments and the various applications in those segments, all having different drive cycles, different requirements and different emission regulations. So if you pair this with a global commercial presence, a strong dealer network and 2,624 very passionated and very skilled colleagues, you actually get the recipe and the ingredients for a successful profitable growth journey.
If you look behind me now, you see a couple of applications that are powered by Volvo Penta. We have widened our scope of supply, including everything from the propeller to the stabilization, to the operation of the vessel, to the services. And this is meaning that we are becoming an integral part of the design of the boat. So we are a true system supplier for our Marine OEMs and a true partner. We are bringing those learnings from Marine into our Industrial business. And here, we are now launching and we have launched connectivity services, productivity services on top of our traditional services. So this is -- from this base that we are now taking the next step.
And the next step, ladies and gentlemen, will also be based on the Volvo Group common technologies, on innovation and deep application knowledge and, of course, a great team. On the on- and off-road side, we are now adding more Volvo Group components to our engine offer to include, for instance, axles and gearboxes and again, bringing the Volvo Group components into new adjacent segments. On the genset side, we call our next step, the power of plenty. What does that mean? In particular, for data centers, we make now modular solutions to compete with big block power generators, multiple engines, matching large engines by competitive TCO, by a competitive footprint, by a competitive deployment cost and, maybe even more important, availability.
On the Marine side, we have been working with multiple installations for many, many years, triple, quadruple. But last -- 2 years ago, we launched the power of plenty concept with our IPS Professional system, attaching 2 engines to 1 drive. That is also then making us compete with larger engines, bringing us up into larger vessels. It is again Volvo Penta redefining marine propulsion because this is providing our customers with more power, less fuel consumption, more space, better maneuverability and flexibility because in the same engine room, in the same package, you can select 2 diesel engines, in this case, D13s, or 1 electric engine and 1 ICE engine or in the very near future, 2 electric engines, so a fully electric solution without rebuilding or redesigning the engine room.
So what does this mean in practice? That means that the power of plenty has already opened up high potential profit pools for Volvo Penta and for the Volvo Group like the data center business. And if you look here, you see a perfect example of a power of plenty concept. This is a Switch data center in -- outside Las Vegas. I would say it's a midsized colocation. And here, you see 300 D16s packaged in a power of plenty concept, providing the backup power for this data center. And the whole integration and the packaging is done by our customer, the Central Power. We believe that the power and the cooling business of data centers will grow with a CAGR of 14% in the next coming 10 years. Today, the data center business represents 15% of the Volvo Penta order book, and I can tell you today that it is growing rapidly.
If you look at the Marine side, the power of plenty is making us move into larger vessels like super yachts and heavy-duty marine commercial applications. So our ambition is to double our revenue, but not only in the Industrial business, also in our Marine business, where we see also more potential. And we will double the revenue. The ambition is to do that within the next 5 to 10 years, sustaining a strong profitability and a strong return on capital.
So with that, and if you look very, very carefully on the picture here, you see down to the right-hand side, you see a Defense vessel. And I believe that is a perfect segue to what we are going to talk about now, Kina.
It is. Thank you so much, Anna. You did my job. I love it.
Thank you.
We are going to segue into the last segment, which is Defense.
Yes.
So why don't you join me over here? And I will also ask Antoine and Melker.
Thank you.
So we opened this Capital Markets Day talking about geopolitics, and I don't think that anyone has missed the need for Europe to build a deterrent defense. And we know a few things. We know that logistics and infrastructure capabilities, they will be key. So we also know by that, that many of the significant investments will be put in our sector. And here, the Volvo Group has a unique position because we can offer a wide range of applications, products, services that the defense industry needs.
Starting with you, Antoine, can you describe the buzz around Defense?
Yes. As you said, Kina, we have a number of conflicts, open conflicts in the world. Then all the armed forces are observing those conflicts and coming to the conclusion that everyone will have to invest. We'll have to invest in different equipment, but primarily in the logistic equipment, which are key for those conflicts, right, to bring all the different goods to the front or a few kilometers far from the front. Then that's a clear trend we are seeing. Then every country starts to have a plan. And I can tell you that I've been visiting many more generals, 4-stars, 5-stars general in the last few weeks than never in the past. Then they're all talking about investing. And you need to know as well that they have not invested in logistics trucks for many decades.
What we see as well, that we see a paradigm shift in Europe, mostly, where they are moving away from tenders of big equipment, I would say, or very specified equipment only for military applications, to more trucks coming from the civilian world, lifted up to their needs and ongoing purchases. That's what we see across the world, ensuring forward and backward integration as well technologically, that's a paramount for them.
Would you like to fill in, Melker?
Yes, I just can give a hint or a data point so you understand what's going on here. And today, we have ongoing business with some countries in the Volvo Group. And the number of countries that we are discussing future business with is double the size of the countries we are doing business with today. So just a flavor of what is going on here.
I guess you recognize this as well, Anna, what are you doing to grasp this opportunity?
No. But I mean, we see warfare changing, and I think everybody recognizes that it's more units and autonomous units is what the military is looking for right now. And we see that very clearly, that the navies around the world, the marine is looking for volume and autonomous. And our -- the fact that we are controlling from the propeller to the helm station makes it very easy to integrate an autonomous solution on top of our electronic system. So we are already delivering, and we are gearing up to deliver more and a lot of dialogues ongoing.
I'm looking at you, Antoine. What are you doing within Renault to grasp this opportunity?
Yes. And for Renault and Group Trucks at large, I would say that we are -- as I said, we are adding some capabilities on our platforms to really develop military-ready platform for their needs. And we are thinking of autonomous, of course, vehicles, but as well unmanned vehicles, which can be cheaper and faster to deploy.
Melker, we said that one of the strengths we have is diversity. I mean we can offer trucks, haulers, boats, engines, power generators. How do we synergize this and go to market as a group?
I think you're partly into it here. But I mean, we have learned all of us that defense is a lot of logistics. It's on sea, it's on road, it's off-road. And if you think about that versus our portfolio, it's a good fit. Then we come to the scale, and defense will not only be expensive, specialized equipment. And then we have our system, our production facilities, our volumes. And that will put this in a total different perspective because we also know -- I mean, the drones, you can also think about what does that mean on land. And that in combination with, you said, unmanned, I mean, remote-operated and autonomous, all the skills and the capabilities we have, will make a lot of defense organizations much more happy in the future when they realize what they can buy.
Anna, finally, we also know that the ability to provide services that will actually decide who will be the supplier of the vehicles. What is your take on services?
No, but it's clear, and I think that goes for the group. I mean we have a global, very dense professional service network, and that is required by military, navy around the world to have that. We can also, of course, train them to do certain service themselves, which we do today.
Melker?
I think the definition of uptime is really in this segment. And I mean, everyone has been talking about that, but the dense network and our service capabilities will, of course, be a super good fit for uptime for a while at least. You don't know how long. But when they're up and running, you need to have uptime.
I believe uptime and TCO because as well, the armies need to maximize the use of their budget.
All right. Thank you so much for now, to giving your view on the growth opportunities within Defense. Please take a seat. We will probably see more of you during the Q&A later.
So this brings us to the end of our look of our strategically selected segments. Martin, you have been sitting listening to your colleagues. Would you like to come up and share your reflections?
Absolutely, Kina. And first, I just would like to say, wow, what a team. I think it all boils down to people. We say that, and it's 100,000 colleagues around the world, but the team here representing all of them is just amazing. The second part I would like to say, and I put note of that today actually, with Anna saying that scaling Volvo technology by innovation and application excellence through people, that is what it's all about, when we take this segment lens onto it, because growing underlying markets, obviously, but strategically selected segments, important, where can we really drive growth.
And here, core segments, we know that we have the capabilities, we have demonstrated history. And we see now also with the increased focus on certain growth segments such as Defense, Mining, Power Generation, Power Solutions, et cetera, that will also require apart from the capabilities that we have already in terms of our total offer compounded by our technology, the network, the people, also partly concentrated commercial organizations that we are combining the strength in order to drive that opportunity. So underlying growth even further in selected segments and then outperforming in these segments. That is the recipe. And I think the team here has truly demonstrated the opportunities.
Thank you for that, Martin. We will see you soon again. And I hope that there is no doubt now that there are a number of growth segments in our markets and in how we also select our segments strategically. This, to build resilience and growth.
But if we are to capitalize on this, we need one more thing, and that is application excellence to drive technological advancements, and to ensure that all our value chains are effective. And to share how we are achieving this, I will present a well-known face, but with a slightly enhanced scope, Jens.
So my friend, you have stepped into bigger shoes since the last CMD, leading purchasing -- they look the same. Purchasing operations and technology. How are you finding things?
It feels exciting. And then of course, great responsibility. And we're living in unprecedented times with moving faster than ever before, but that's also the time to show what this organization is capable of. So feel good.
And what is your comment on those capabilities?
It's all about people, and it starts and end there. And whether that is to set up a new plant in Mexico within time, budget, now producing trucks or launching a completely new D13 platform that we're doing right now or the 700-kilometer range battery electric vehicles. I mean it's done by people every day doing the extra mile.
That's really true. So we are super curious about application excellence. So I'll leave the floor to you to describe how we are ensuring that we have the right product at the right time, at the right place and at the right cost.
Thank you. Starting with application excellence. Again, we said it before, it starts with the customer. And applications excellence and tailor-made equipment at scale is what makes us a little bit unique. I would like to take the opportunity to actually distance ourselves a bit from automotive. We are not automotive. We are producing highly specialized industrial machines every day at stack. And application excellence, we mentioned many times today, what does that really mean?
I'll give you some small examples. For instance, we have a customer here in Europe transporting glass, glass sheets from a glass mill. And the glass sheets, they have a certain size and you cannot change that. That means your trailer needs to be bigger. That means also when the trailer is bigger and higher, you need to lower the chassis to have profitability and competition creating a very competitive product. And that's what we deliver.
Or, for instance, our 38-tonne axle in a quarry or in a construction site, where you add on load in the rear and we measure every axle exactly what the weight is, not to load too much to be illegal and not load too little to not be competitive. That is what we are talking about being application excellence. And these are only 2 points.
I can tell you another 10,000 points where we do this in every segment, in every product, everywhere, and we do it at scale. So ultimately, for us, it's about creating TCO for our customer, uptime, but also productivity. And I would like to highlight also trust, trust we build by consistent performance, but also standing with our customers in good times and in bad times. We do that by servicing our customers. And we are at the point right now where we are delivering 99% of our order lines or spare parts within 24 hours in 180 countries, serving 1.9 million trucks.
If you add on the complete group, then we are talking about 3.2 million pieces of equipment that we can service, we are at the level still at 99% within 24 hours in 180 countries. How do we make this happen? It's by balancing -- balancing, having scale where scale matters, having speed where speed matters. Starting with where scale matters. That is in our tech stack, how do we create the best possible technology solutions.
Common architecture shared technology, starting with powertrain solution, software-defined vehicle, vehicle applications or platforms, connectivity and as Nils alluded to earlier, also autonomous coming into our complete global tech stack. So of course, having that global tech stack is enormously important to have the critical mass to have the speed, the capacity to invest enough in the right areas. But of course, having a big global organization also can make you slow. That needs to be balanced with a regional setup.
We are super clear in our regional strategy. We are having application R&D close to our customer, understanding what the customer need, whether that is in a mine in Peru or in train -- a road train in Australia, we need to understand what the customer needs. That means you need to have application R&D on local level. Adding on then local sourcing, but also local production, truly creating an end-to-end system supporting our customer every day.
The regional setup is also a way of dealing with resilience. I look at resilience from 3 aspects: financially, technology, geopolitically. Starting with financially, I think we have shown in the last few years, we have created a truly flexible industrial system that can adapt to volumes wherever they are in the world in the 3, 4 distinct regions: North America, Latin America, Europe and internationally.
Geopolitically, by having this setup where we source locally, produce locally, we are mitigating a big risk that we have with either tariffs or sudden impacts like transport issues or disturbances that we have seen over the last couple of years, shocks to the system, setting up a resilient system.
Finally, from a technology perspective, we have set up the system so we can balance up the system, both from an R&D, but also from an industrial perspective, ramping up whatever technology will be needed in different parts of the world, whether that is the combustion engine on different fuels, the battery electric vehicle or in the future, hydrogen. We can ramp up wherever it's needed, dependent most likely on this infrastructure, depending where we are in the world.
We are a growing company and starting with our service network. This is -- the points you see here are actually our distribution centers that are supporting the map that Volvo showed earlier with our different service centers. This is how we distribute our parts globally. We have invested over a number of years. We are in a good position right now, and that's why we achieved the 99%.
Going into our industrial system. Starting with North America. You know we have invested in capacity here. I think we are finalizing. We are in place. Going into Latin America, we are in place. Europe, very strong. We have a very strong backbone in Europe in place. And we are ramping up now our fourth industrial hump, India. We have some investments left, but we see that will be handled with more of a normalized capital expenditure. So I would say, very soon in place as well.
Looking at R&D. We have invested also here and we have had elevated levels of R&D spend over the last few years. We see now that, that has been peaked, but we have also invested in platforms in the combustion engine, in our long-range BEV, in our software-defined vehicle, but also in the autonomous area. We see now that our R&D expenditures are flattening out. So Kina, we have resilience, we have the discipline to balance between technologies, and we definitely have the capabilities to grow.
Thank you so much, Jens. So I have been standing on many stages with you, and there is one word that keeps coming back, execution, execution, execution. What do you see now in your big organization that gives you a lot of confidence?
Execution gives trust. But it starts and ends with people, and I need to acknowledge that. I'm a true believer in people and what can happen when you have the right people on board. And I would like to take a story about, Ed is here. You see on the slide here. She works in our [ koping ] factory where we produce our gearboxes for Europe. A while back, I met her on the shop floor. We were about to ramp up from a big rebuild that we did. I mean, on the AMT gearbox, that's a sensitive thing. That's where you support the complete European market with gearboxes.
And we were rebuilding that to have both our electrical drivelines with our AMT gearboxes on that line. And it's a bit tense, ramping up vertically after a shutdown. It is tense, and she was standing there looking me in the eye, simply saying, failure is not an option. And off she went. And it was a success, by the way.
But that is the type of attitude I see everywhere in the organization. I see it everywhere, wherever I go, whether that is to set up a new plant in Mexico, delivering our D13 engine or a service center or our long-range battery electric vehicle. I see that everywhere. And it's hard to beat a winning team.
And I see it in you, my friend. Thank you so much for now. Please take a seat. We will see more of you later. So Jens is speaking about our R&D budget normalizing and us having done major investments in our future. So with such a strong balance sheet, how do we leverage our position? Mats, may I look at you? Maybe you can put some figures to it. You're back.
Yes, you're right. And as you all have heard, I mean, we have been forward leaning when it comes to investments over the recent year, and we are well invested. If we are putting numbers on that and looking at the development we have had since 2019 on this short-term. So as you can see, we have increased the R&D gross spending, and we peaked in 2024. And as Jens said, I mean, from the peak 2024, what we're looking on is rather a slightly kind of decline from there or more of a plateau.
And R&D is also a big driver when it comes to capital expenditures. We can see a similar development when it comes to capital expenditures, but with somewhat of a delay. So we have been ramping up on the CapEx side as well, and we had SEK 18 billion in 2025. which is similar to the R&D side and at a peak level and where we see a slight decline in the same way as we have seen for the R&D growth side.
And how does this impact our way of thinking around capital allocation?
We are very consistent when it comes to the thinking around our capital allocation. And the most important part is that we are investing and we are investing being forward leaning in our operations as well. And this has been yielding over time, and we are on a return on capital employed of around 25%. So good returns on the investments we are doing. But in the same time, and this is also you have heard from all my colleagues today, we are forward leaning when it comes to investing in new technologies. But we are, in the same time, sharing this success with the shareholders, and we have been consistent when it comes to dividends as well.
Looking at the ordinary dividend where we have been increasing the ordinary dividend with SEK 0.5 over the recent years. And consequent, we will continue to be. And then on the extraordinary side, depending on where we are in the business cycle and depending on the cash flow, we have also been generous when it comes to the extraordinary dividend.
And with that, I love to return to this slide. I really love it when we're talking the total shareholder return. And we talked about the positive impact coming from the resilience and the growth, but capital allocation also being extremely important when it comes to the total shareholder return and the dividends we are paying, which is also driving the total returns.
Thank you so much, Mats. I'm sure that we have many happy shareholders. Why don't you join me behind the desk? We are soon going to open up for our Q&A session.
We are done with presentations. But first, I would like to ask Martin to wrap things up.
Thank you, Kina. What a great opportunity to present the story. And I mean, maybe 2 messages also if we start with what we have discussed today. Number one, demonstrated -- demonstration of my colleagues throughout the group about built for resilience and growth. As you have seen here, both when it comes to the reinforced resilience over different type of cycles, but also how we are continuously also tapping into the growth opportunities. And now with the 4 dimensions that we have been presenting through the segment lens, it's time to take the next step for the group.
So friends, a day like this, exciting times, right? We are living in uncertain conditions. We know that. But the demand in our strategically selected segments will continue to accelerate. This growth is driven, as we have been talking about today, by the underlying economic activities, obviously, driven by macro trends, but also a number of dynamic factors such as e-commerce, defense, mining, digital infrastructure and beyond. And also, we are coming to the point where we will see the enablement by autonomous solutions and energy transition that provide further growth opportunities.
And when growth prospects are good, competition is intensifying, and we like that. In these exciting times, the Volvo Group's capabilities and assets to move ahead have never been stronger because it all boils down to where we started this morning, that every customer will get what they need to stay competitive and successful in their specific segment, application and geography.
In other words, in their business, the solution for the customer, a truly competitive TCU, including uptime, payload, energy efficiency, safety, driver attractiveness, productivity and more. This is customer obsession in real life. But it's one thing to have an obsession for customers. It's another to have what is required to deliver what they need. With our global system of own innovation, technology and industrial capabilities, combined with the best and greatest, most reliable supply and commercial partners, we are either developing or getting access to the latest and greatest competitive key components and systems.
Competitive both, yes, in terms of cost. But when it comes to the solution, in many cases, even more important when it comes to durability, reliability and performance. Our modular product and solution system, cost, common architecture and shared technology is both fast and flexible and combine scale where it matters with the diversity needed for the customer. And our application excellence leverages our strong regional value chains in both core and evolving markets. And they are, what you say, Jens, these regional value chains, they are ready for more growth, right? So Melk, you don't worry, we are ready.
Growth driven by a world-class sales and service network that is global when it comes to reach. But on the other hand, and at the end of the day for the customer, it is very local or to put it even more precise, exactly where and when the customer needs us and wants us every day, 365 days per year, always. This approach has led us to a growing customer base that has a huge trust in our solutions and in our people, reflected in our high customer retention and new customer acquisitions.
And it's not just trust in the products. By leveraging the total offer, that has led to an increased share of service and solution content, another important signal of trust from our customers. We are working in an industry where the market is growing. We are focusing on segments that will outperform the growing market, and we are confident that with everything we talked about today and much, much more, obviously, we will outperform in these segments. Growth, on growth, on growth.
And based on these growth levers, our capital allocation strategy has been consistent in providing performance for our customers in reducing volatility and increasing earnings for the group and solid investor returns. This is what we at Volvo call resilient and profitable growth. And it will be done by the most precious asset that we have at Volvo, our people and our partners. You have seen the team, I would like to call it my team on stage today, and I'm very proud of all of you. Thank you, guys, for what you're doing.
And I know that -- but we are representing 100,000 colleagues around the world. And I know that many of them are watching online. So I hope that you excuse me if I turn and talk to them for one moment here. Dear colleagues, it doesn't matter where in the world I am, I meet dedicated dynamic business savvy men, women, colleagues, you. You are living our brands and values. And I know that you're always ready for the extra mile every day in every situation globally, but still extremely locally and all for the customer. I couldn't be more proud of you and what you are doing. Thank you for your great commitment.
At the end of the day, it is exactly that. It's all about people, our teams, our customers' teams, our suppliers' teams working together to drive society forward. So -- everyone online, everyone in the room, thanks for your attention. Thanks for your trust and interest in us. And we are -- we -- that have been on stage today, we are extremely proud of representing all the colleagues around the world. And we are the Volvo Group. Thank you.
He make me cried. I think we need to catch a breath a little bit, Martin.
I definitely need to do it.
It's time for the Q&A. Here it comes.
We are in an emotional business.
We are. Lets take...
Hold on. I see that there are many -- this is good. We have a lot of questions in the room already.
Very good.
So we're going to finish off with a Q&A, and we have a well-known face in the audience, Anders from Investor Relations. He will help us with the questions online. And we have Mats and Martin by the table. But of course, feel free to ask any questions to anyone in the management team. And we're going to start in the room, and you know the drill, you present yourself and then what? One question each. And I mean it this time because it is respect to the rest of the people in the room. So the question is who would like to begin?
Can I just get my glasses...
Yes, get your glasses. We have a microphone already here on the first row. Please introduce yourself and that is our first question.
2. Question Answer
You made it challenging to just select one. Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs. But given it is just one, maybe I'll follow up in the conversation at the very end regarding capital allocation. So R&D is not going up. CapEx is not going up. You're growing more given all these initiatives, hopefully. And I guess there's still some room on the margins, at least in Construction Equipment when we looked at the first chart with the top of the industry and where you are.
Is there any room for large size inorganic moves to accelerate all of that? Or what are you going to do further with the cash beyond all that you already do?
Should I start? Thank you for the question. And I think we have been pretty clear in our different type of, if I may say so, inorganic moves over the last couple of years. And when Mats, for example, talked a little bit about the transformative ventures. On one side, you can say, okay, it's profitability, and we want to be transparent. On the other side, you can also say that quite a lot of those are, of course, add-on technology investments that are still about to come on board.
We talked about autonomous, obviously. You heard about Nils, we are getting closer to this. We see that in a number of others. The other big part that we see is that it has been good for us to take further steps when it comes to the sales and service network distribution coming even closer to the customer. It is building further growth opportunities for us. Both when it comes to the penetration of market shares in these segments, we can do even more.
Truck Center in Western Australia was a great performing dealer. But with now the integration into the group Australia -- the Volvo Group Australia, we see an accelerated penetration of core segments up in Port Hedland and Pilbara, et cetera, for example, because we need to combine different things and also the service opportunities. So we are working structurally -- very structured around the funnel of opportunities, but with the right balance, that is how I look upon it.
No, totally agree. And I think that if you're looking at the last 12 months and what we have done and especially when we're talking about the dealership and the service focus with Swecon and Western Australia, I mean, that's the path we are on. So I think that's reflecting the priorities going forward in a good way as well.
And when you look at, I mean, other inorganic opportunities, you need really to see where it can add to your competitive -- I mean, just add units, we don't need because there we have the organic capability of driving that. So the 1 plus 1 adding just to gain size, it must create value for real and not being dilutive in any sense, so to speak, because then we are just losing focus.
All right. Thank you very much. Hampus, you have been waiting, so I'll leave the microphone to you.
Hampus Engellau, Handelsbanken. One question. Maybe coming back to the market shares. It seems like Mack having good momentum on the market share while Volvo has a tougher task, if I look historically, it's been very segmented in the long haulage with Freightliner absorbing international market share when they went into trouble. How do you aim to like break into this and capture like clients that never have considered the Volvo brand?
Maybe, Roger, if you would like to take that.
Thank you for the question. And I was into it before. And we need to also then be aware about that the long-haul segment in North America has been down more than the construction segment, so to say. But as I said, we are now building our capabilities. We're widening then the product range which make us more possibilities to grow then the shares in segments that we have not been out in before.
But the #1 thing is, of course, conquesting new customers. We are then working with a lot with more sales force, with more conquest from a customer point of view. And the number of customers that we are taking on now that is new one is massive. So we see now a good increase in terms of order intake. So we are pretty confident that this will come in the market share as well.
And I think also, I mean, what Roger said, I mean, you showed it so well, and you have been into it. But when we look at North America, Hampus, as you know, I mean, it's a continent. And we really demonstrate also that we are able to do that. We have, I mean, dealers and markets, as you say, with this. So it's all about granularity and driving that. But I think the platform is there. So we feel confident about that.
Thank you. We will take one more from first row, Mattias.
Mattias from DNB Carnegie. As you probably are aware, there's been a lot of discussions and speculations regarding the structure and if there's potential to make construction equipment into a separate entity. I think you've shown a pretty strong proposition with the cost and service network, et cetera, why it makes sense to have that as a group. But I still think it would be interesting for us to hear your perspective on the structure, if you want to put the discussion to rest, so to speak, or if there might be merit to this discussion, but perhaps a few years too early.
I mean I think -- and Mattias, I think this is, of course, always a very important discussion when it comes to a group like ours to have, I mean, a reflection on how does the portfolio look like? Do you have enough, so to speak, common capabilities, assets to defend the structure that looks like Volvo. I think both when it comes to how we have been developing the group, the different business areas, development, both in resilience and growth opportunities, but also finding the right combination of, on one side, common capabilities of scale or technology or industrial and service network opportunities that really is shared and good opportunity.
While at the same time, have enough decentralization, you are not losing speed, focus and accountability and ownership. And we have done a number of moves where we have said that these parts of the business are not fitting good enough into the group. And then it's better for them to develop on a stand-alone or in another context.
What we see now, and I think that has been demonstrated, there are -- in addition to the journey that we have done, I think also market and segments reasons to really drive this even further, defense, mining, power generation, quarries, construction as well. I mean, the core construction. So that's the reason also why we, in certain parts of the business now are combining the business area setup also with a segment setup, so we even further can drive opportunities across the group. So we are happy with the structure that we have. And I think also the outcome has shown that this model is working.
Very good. We will take one more from the room. Agnieszka?
Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea. So you gave us a very good glimpse into the growth ambitions and kind of revenue pools for your different businesses. Would you consider disclosing more formalized growth and EBIT margin targets for your business areas in order to improve transparency and accountability from analysts and investors?
No. I mean we have the segment reporting, we have and also when it comes to the financial targets. And I mean, that might develop over time depending on how the -- depending on the development of the different segments and so forth. But for now, I mean, we are happy with the way we are presenting the group and the kind of the key ratios and the KPIs we have.
Very good. And I think it's time for the first question online. Anders, would you mind?
Sure. [indiscernible] talking about vehicle expansion. In which regions do you aim to expand in this space?
Yes. I mean, first and foremost, it's important for us to come back to what Roger said. We still see that it's a good combination of having a mix of -- I mean, when we have high-performing, if I may say, so private dealer partners, that is also, of course, a very good model. But we see due to different aspects that there are reasons for us. It could be succession. It could be that we really want to focus even more on a specific segment, specific geography where further add-on investments are being made.
But what has really changed over the last, I should say, 5, 10 years is our own operating performance in our retail network, both the private and our captive network when it comes to, of course, the financial performance, but also when it comes to driving growth, driving services, driving entrepreneurial spirit, the decentralization.
And that combination with the fact that we now have business that are accretive to our margins when it comes to the retail since it's in the same flow and even more recurring business, we see that as a good opportunity. But we will take that step by step. Coming back to what Mats said, strong financial position, drive innovation and growth opportunities and also make sure that we are attractive for -- and that is very attractive, by the way, with the return on capital that we have demonstrated for the investors. And on top of that, dividend opportunities.
But this is a strategic area. We are coming closer to the customers. We can drive core segments even further. And I should argue the last 4, 5, 6 acquisitions that we have done have demonstrated that we are -- that it's possible -- not only possible, it's very positive having this bolt-on add-on strategy when it comes to the distribution.
Very good. Let's see if we have any questions on this side of the room. Any hands up? No. Then I'm moving over to this side of the room. Here, we have a few. We can start with.
Lots of hands. Good.
Bjorn, Danske Bank. I keep on asking about the bolt-on acquisition. And if you -- I mean, would it be possible to add 1% or so to growth? Or if you can give some color on the potential for acquiring companies like Swecon with -- I mean, that drives growth and also resilience, of course.
No, as you say, Bjorn, I think there are a number of things. Number one, it is also from a group perspective, further driving the resilience when it comes to recurring revenues. That's obvious because it's both traditional, if I may say, the core businesses of workshop hours and parts. But more and more solution requires also investment for the retail network when it comes to electromobility, when it comes to autonomous, when it comes to different other type of digital capabilities, et cetera.
It is important for our competitive position over time. And it is -- and as I said, when we have done acquisitions and we have a good pipeline and funnel, we see that we are adding growth both when it comes to the products and the services and increasing that. So -- I mean, I will not give a percent, but it's both growth, it's the competitive set because you're even closer to the customer and it's resilience for sure. And I think it's very good for the investors, if I put like that.
Very good. We're going to continue on this side of the room. Right here.
It's Nicolai from Deutsche Bank. Also one question on the corporate structure and this time is on Penta. Great journey over the last years. Now you're trying to double revenues. But still from a capital market perspective, Penta is just dwarfed by trucks and construction in terms of earnings. Any ideas here to separate this business, just put it more in the spotlight that we see so much momentum in data centers and power generation?
No. I mean I think, again, we are crystallizing that business very well. And I'm very happy that you brought it up, Nicolai, also because, I mean, it's another jewel in the crown and the growth potential is obvious. I think we have -- and the team at Penta together with many colleagues in the Volvo Group have demonstrated that driving this now segment by segment, of course, the Marine that we thought was rather full leash, but we are unleashing, so to speak, further potential now with the bigger vessels, et cetera.
And when it comes to industrial, it's a huge potential. And since we are still in a very high level of growth mode there now, also when it comes to the service business. But when you start to think about, as Anna described also, the core elements in the backbone and then adding on the core capabilities of Volvo Penta and then providing the solution to start to do a separation with a lot of complications will just make the focus put in the wrong place. I mean we are disclosing, everyone can -- you are good in calculating. You can see how much that will add to the group's potential moving forward.
Yes. And we are quite granular when it comes to Penta, and I shared a lot today when it comes to the targets going forward as well then. So I think you have quite a lot of information in order to visualize the value we have in Penta.
But great opportunities. And if you think about -- and I've been involved myself together with Anna and the teams because I'm really interested in this field with the whole energy transition. And when we look at now the innovation, not only when it comes to the technology innovation, but also when it comes to the business model innovation, availability, scale, when it comes to digital capabilities or electronic capabilities to synchronize all these different type of engine that's not only for backed up, but I'm convinced that we will come in also to the prime side of thinking.
I mean, if you have 100 engines and you have a smart round robin system also of, so to speak, the maintenance schemes, this is an outstanding solution because with the 16- and 17-liter engines, then if you even drive it on natural or biogas, et cetera, the sweet spot of such a generation when it comes to fuel efficiency and energy efficiency is unbeatable. But it's about the synchronization. And with the capabilities we're sitting on today when it comes to control systems, et cetera, that will, of course, come as well. So here is great opportunities.
Thank you, Martin. I think we can conclude that divestment rumors is a no.
I mean, again, it's all about delivery. The day -- and that what I can assure you, the day we feel that being part of this group is hampering someone from driving resilience, growth, customer satisfaction and outcomes, then, of course, we should consider a different structure. But we feel really good, and we have a lot of discussions in the team. We feel that we have a good structure that gives good outcome.
So, clear now. Thank you very much. Let's continue in the middle of the room over there.
Harry Martin from Bernstein. I wanted to ask about the autonomous trucking business and the SEK 3 billion revenue target, that would already be quite a sizable number compared to the size of the U.S. business today, likely implies a higher market share of that business than that 25% target as well. So I'd love to understand some of the assumptions behind that target when it comes to the number of trucks in operation, the market shares, the revenue model and why Volvo as a company should outperform in what is a very competitive end market.
Would you like to start, Nils?
Just step forward and it will work.
Okay. It's magic. First of all, as I said, it's a very large addressable market. And if you look at the competition, you need to distinguish a little bit what is the role of the OEM, what is the role of the technology partners. And we have an approach where we work with multiple technology partners, bringing the virtual driver technology, which we then integrate and then we go to market with the Volvo brand, with Volvo Autonomous Solutions. So we are the ones which are generating the revenues.
And then, of course, in the back, we are having a certain split of the revenues, which go to us, respectively, what will go to our technology partner. But it's -- what is very important to understand is that in order to bring that technology to the market, you need to understand what the market -- how the market is operating today and how you bring that technology to it. That's why the business model is so crucial and so important. So this go-to-market strategy, which we have where we start with Transport as a Service, here, we're really making it easy for the customers to benefit from autonomy without having the hassle of operating it.
Over time, we will add more and different business models where our role will be smaller. But nevertheless, we will still have -- it will still be service business, which will contribute over proportional to the growth we have in the service business and particularly in the margins. And of course, I'd be very happy if with Autonomous Solutions, we overproportionately help the growth of the market share of Volvo Trucks in the U.S., and Roger will support me there.
Absolutely. And I mean, if you look upon it also, one thing, an important thing, by the way, is, of course, the decision engine, the virtual driver. But then it's also, so to speak, the redundant and autonomous capabilities of the whole system and that we have been working really. We have actually had discussions how much should we disclose on this, et cetera, in order to -- from a capital allocation standpoint, et cetera.
But we said it's so important that we are actually taking that in our transformational ventures, taking a little bit of heat that we are not disclosing it because we wanted to stay ahead of the curve and do these investments, both in the product, but also in the ecosystem that Nils have been explaining. So now we are really excited for '27 that coincides with our 100-year celebration also. So we're excited about that because that will be a milestone.
Very good. Thank you very much. We have a gentleman over here.
Klas at Citi. So I had one short-term and one long-term, but it's only one question. So it's been a lot.
You will incorporate the 2 of them in 1.
Yes, exactly follow-up. So I'm going to go with the one on short-term. And Mats, you said that the cost inflation is going to start to bite from the second quarter. And we have some hopefully positive offsets. We have the North America volume ramp. You are going to see from mid-May that the under-absorption is gradually going to sort of start to fade. You're raising prices. I'm just curious -- first of all, on the cost side, has that got worse than what you planned for?
And then on the other things then, North America volumes very strong. So are you going to have a bigger boost from utilization than you originally planned for?
I will not give a margin guidance. But talking about the different components then. So for sure, looking at the kind of the effects from the Middle East crisis and especially on the freight side, I mean, we will have higher cost than anticipated in the second quarter driven by that and in combination to some extent with raw materials as well. So that is kind of a net negative on that side.
Then you're right. I mean, we have a good trend and a good momentum in North America with a higher order intake. We are in balance when it comes to our industrial system then starting May. And now we are increasing capacity, as Stephen talked about as well. So that will help us going forward, so to speak. But please remember in the second quarter, we are talking May, so it's only kind of 1 month left. So that will be a gradual kind of improvement.
But utilization is good, as Mats alluded to also in the trading update. So we see that in the service business also. So I think that is holding up well. And that is, of course, very encouraging to see because eventually, I mean, when customers are active, that is good for everyone. So that is still holding on.
And as previously communicated when it comes to the service business, and I think Roger will give us underlying that as well then. I mean with the population we have out there and getting into the sweet spot in terms of aging of the fleet as well, I mean, that's also driving the service business in terms of parts consumption and so forth, also being positive. But that's nothing new then. I mean we talked about that when we released the first quarter as well.
The second question. Without a microphone, that has to be super quick because we have one more online before we wrap up.
I mean no changes from what we have said previously when it comes to the pricing environment.
Thank you, Klas. Anders?
Yes, sure. I have a question from Mats Liss at Kepler Cheuvreux. Following the SDLG investment, Volvo has reduced its exposure to China. Do you see a risk of being underexposed to growth opportunities in one of the world's largest truck and construction equipment markets?
Obviously, I mean, that specific exposure has gone away. But when it comes -- there are 2 elements of this question, I think that is important to bear in mind. Then is the market opportunity in itself. And there, of course, we are continuing to drive the performance development of Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, where we have the joint venture. We are also putting a lot of focus now in our core segments also with both Volvo Construction Equipment and Volvo Trucks when it comes to China.
But other dimension that is very important, that's the reason why we are also very active in China is also to continuously tap into that ecosystem when it comes to speed and innovation alongside other opportunities that we have, both China for China, as I talked about India for India, but also China for the world where that matters, so to speak. So we are active. We have a strong footprint in these different dimensions, and it will continue to be so.
Gentlemen, time is flying when having fun. That was the final question. Any final words from you, Martin, before we wrap up?
No, not more than we will be available the whole afternoon, obviously, from management. So I mean, take the opportunity to just grab us, discuss, put questions or provoke us. You do whatever you like as long as we can do it together. And we will, of course, also have more in store now for the afternoon, but that we'll talk about, but we are around for further conversations for everyone.
Absolutely. So this wraps up part of the Capital Markets Day. And as Martin said, for those of you who are here in Eskilstuna, there will be plenty of opportunities to ask more questions. Now all materials will, of course, be available online. And there you find the contact information to our Investor Relations department if you have further questions. So thank you so much, everyone, for joining us today here in...
Teams also...
I'm coming to that. He is hopeless. You can take it.
Thanks to the team that have [indiscernible].
So thanks to the team. It's a big effort putting a day like this together, as you can imagine. Thank you, Martin. And again, thanks for everyone in the room. Please stay seated because Melker has some important information.
And for all of you who have been watching online, thank you so much for joining us today. I hope that we have been able to keep you glued to the screen. Bye-bye.
Volvo B — Analyst/Investor Day - AB Volvo (publ)
Volvo's Capital Markets Day: "built for resilience and growth" — customer-first strategy, modular BEV, retail expansion and autonomous launch in 2027.
📊 Key Message
- Core thesis: Volvo stresses customer obsession and segment-focused growth (on‑road, urban logistics, construction/mining, power generation, defense) to drive higher recurring service content and less cyclical, more predictable earnings.
🎯 Strategic Highlights
- Autonomy: Launching Autona/freight as Transport‑as‑a‑Service; driverless on‑road operations start Q1 2027 with a goal of 300 trucks by end‑2027 and a USD 3bn revenue ambition within five years.
- Battery EVs: Next‑gen battery‑electric vehicles (BEV) with up to 700 km range delivered on a modular platform to improve payload, charging time and lower incremental capex.
- Retail & capacity: Selective bolt‑on dealer/retail deals (Swecon, Western Australia), a new Mexico plant and regional industrial investments to raise North America scale and service penetration.
🆕 New Information
- Timelines: Q1 2027 start for driverless on‑road operations and 300 trucks by Q4 2027 — a clear commercial ramp versus prior pilots.
- Product specifics: Public disclosure of a 700‑km long‑range BEV platform and ongoing excavator capacity investments including SEK 2.5bn to Changwon.
- M&A focus: Recent retail/service deals (Swecon, Western Australia) and Mexico greenfield show preference for distribution/service add‑ons over large unrelated takeovers.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Capital allocation: Management favors disciplined, value‑accretive bolt‑ons (distribution, service) and targeted tech investments; R&D/CapEx have peaked (2024) and will plateau rather than re‑escalate.
- China exposure: SDLG exit reduces direct exposure, but Volvo keeps market access via JVs and targeted business area activity rather than full divestment from China opportunity.
- Near‑term risks: Q2 cost headwinds from freight and raw materials tied to Middle East tensions; North America capacity and pricing discipline expected to gradually offset these effects.
⚡ Bottom Line
For shareholders: Volvo presents a credible plan to convert customer trust into higher, stickier service revenues while scaling BEV and autonomous offerings. Short‑term cost pressures persist, but disciplined capital allocation, targeted retail M&A and concrete autonomy/BEV timelines create multiple upside catalysts to drive resilient, profitable growth.
Volvo B — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, and welcome to the Volvo Group First Quarter Press Conference. Today, we'll listen to the presentation from Martin and Mats about the first quarter results, and then we will follow up with a Q&A session later on in this session. So with that short introduction, I hand over to Martin.
Thank you for that, Johan. And also from my side, good morning to this quarter 1, 2026 press conference. Great to have you here.
First and foremost, the group and all colleagues and business partners delivered a solid result in the quarter with an adjusted operating income of SEK 12.2 billion and a margin of 11% and continue to demonstrate strong earnings resilience despite that market volumes moderated compared to last year. And despite many moving parameters, as you're all aware of, such as geopolitical turmoil and tariffs.
Performance was good across all business areas with a high customer confidence in our products and services, reflected in good order intake and low cancellations throughout the quarter. We also launched several new business offerings as well as portfolio moves to further improve our competitive set and enable continued profitable growth.
To mention a few examples in the intro here from the first quarter, we have further reinforced the regional haul and conventional business offerings in North America for Volvo Mack. Super excited about that. We are continuing to roll out these new offerings. And as you did see also here in the -- in [ true movie ], Volvo has launched our next generation of battery electric offerings, including also the new FH Aero Electric long range with up to 700-kilometer range, which is, of course, a significant and benchmark step.
As regards our company portfolio, we continue to optimize our structure and capital allocation with a number of important moves in the quarter. First, the intention of Toyota to step into cellcentric, being an equal shareholder together with us and Daimler Truck, paving the way then for the hydrogen journey.
The intention and execution, I should say, we are waiting for a merger clearance there on the Flexis divestment, our 45% share to Renault Group, still then having a considerable, so to speak, lineup of [ LCV ], including the Flexis vehicles. So that will further clarify that part of the business for the Renault Trucks.
The [ Vicon ] integration, strengthening the retail sales presence for VCE started during the quarter and also the announcement of discontinuing the Rokbak brand when it comes to our whole business within Volvo Construction Equipment that has been subscale and low profitability not at least with our decision in '22 to leave Russia, amongst others.
Here and now, and despite uncertainties order intake also developed positively, as you have seen with, for example, an increase year-over-year of 14% for group trucks. As one example, and when it comes to the market forecast for the full year, we are [ for ] trucks down then slightly revising upward for Europe and Latin America while reiterating the forecast for North America on the back of stronger order momentum.
I guess it would be certain questions about, I mean how that is playing out, obviously, but we will come back to that more in detail why we are reiterating that as gradual now coming back in the North American market. And operationally, I think that is also important. We are utilizing our flexibility toolbox, both for upwards and down [ one correction ] to maintain balance between demand and supply and to keep inventory levels on the right level, so to speak and that has been well done during these more stormy waters, and we will continue to do so.
Focus is also on effective cost control, generally speaking, but also further optimizations of our structures across the group that we have done during the quarter, primarily in the truck segments. Commercial discipline continues, of course, to be very important. We have a very strong total offer, and we should utilize that. And what is very, very positive is, of course, also the service business growing with 6% organically, showing that our customers around the world continue to utilize their equipment. But also that we have an increased share of wallet, and that is, of course, driving loyalty and customer centricity, but for the group, of course, also resilience.
So while the recent geopolitical tensions and the Middle East conflict have so far not caused any major disruptions in our operations, we are, of course, keeping a watchful eyes whether and when they might affect primarily if they will, the general economy more broadly and thereby our demand. But with our flexible business model with an increased service business together with strong market positions, and disciplined cost control, we are well positioned to navigate potential short-term swings in demand.
And you have heard me saying that before, in times like this, we focus on what we can affect and what we can impact and staying close to our customers and business partners to continue to drive resilience and growth. Moving forward, there will be an increased structural need in the world of efficient and effective transport solutions, Infrastructure and Energy Solutions, and the group is well positioned moving forward.
If we go into the figures then. The first quarter, net sales amounted to SEK 111 billion with an organic sales growth of 2%. And we have, and you will hear that from Mats and myself, we have introduced a term organic sales growth to illustrate the underlying sales development pace and thereby neutralizing also the M&A effects, for example, if you take VCE then [indiscernible] the [ second ] the effects in the quarter and, of course, also FX. More granular information about this is disclosed as part of the key ratios section in the quarterly report.
And we continue to focus on earnings resilience, as I've said, adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 12.2 billion, with the margin expanding to 11%. For trucks, our European business performance compensated the underabsorption cost for the -- from the U.S. truck manufacturing operations that was standing still approximately 25% to 30% of the time available time in the quarter. That was a conscious, tough, but a conscious decision. And eventually, as we see it, the right decision, to have these stop weeks as we now have available production capacity to meet the increased demand we have seen recently.
As for May, we are in balance in North America. Operating cash flow had a normal seasonal effect and amounted to SEK 400 million. Net financial position end of quarter 1, SEK 56.8 billion. Return on capital employed, 24.5% and earnings per share, SEK 4.09 per share. So we can then conclude another strong and resilient quarter here.
Group news, as I said, quite a lot of things have happened or a very busy quarter, I have to say. First and foremost, and as you can see here, the Toyota Motor Corporation aiming to join the Volvo Group and Daimler Truck as equal shareholder in the fuel cell joint venture cellcentric. The combination of the parties' complementary experience and know-how will support and accelerate the joint objective to develop, produce and most importantly, then commercialize fuel cell systems for heavy-duty vehicles but also for other heavy-duty applications, such as energy solutions, for example.
And this is a very, very good industrial move and industrial fit as these 3 significant OEMs on forces to drive decarbonization. Super happy, obviously, to have Toyota on board with a long-lasting story when it comes to this journey of hydrogen and the hydrogen economy. This will further strengthen an already well-functioning joint venture actually.
Also, as I alluded to, Volvo Group, Renault Group and CMA-CGM has been an agreement now on a strategic change for the current joint venture Flexis that contains the next-generation electric light commercial vehicles. And the [ movies ] that Renault will buy, Volvo's 45% ownership and CMA-CGM is 10% in Flexis. But Volvo Group through then Renault Trucks, that is the counterpart will remain a partner and investor in the vehicle project and will commercialize and distribute Flexis developed products from 2027 adding to the lineup that we already have together with Renault Group, also a very successful setup by the way.
AGM of AB Volvo Annual General Meeting of [indiscernible] was held at World of Volvo in Guthenberg, very proud of that. I can say, I mean, that is a manifest also of both the history and the future for Volvo. And as always, of course, it is a special moment to meet with our shareholders. The AGM decided also along with the Board's different proposals and amongst those, of course, also to -- not of course, but to shift SEK 26.4 billion to the shareholders or SEK 13 per share.
On volume side, the truck deliveries decreased by 3% to 47,500 vehicles with lower volumes than in North America and somewhat also in South America, but partly then compensated in Europe. And Volvo [indiscernible] equipment, Volvo-branded volume, that is the relevant these days now, I mean, since we have completed the divestment of SDLG. It did grow with 12% in the quarter driven primarily by the European market.
Electrification, first and foremost, with different uncertainties related to the electrification still in our key markets. Demand continues to be slow. Orders of electric vehicles decreased 22% adjusted for SDLG, mainly on the back of a broadening offering from competition. That is natural. I mean, we have been rather along with some players, but we see more and more players coming in. And I think that is a good sign.
But also the general uncertainties in the market. The reality is that the base of calculating market share is very, very low. So you will see rather big swings here moving forward as well. But deliveries of electric vehicles and machines did grow with 15% adjusted for SDLG. And this growth was mainly supported in this quarter by a strong growth of light commercial vehicles, electric business.
When it comes to the total vehicle and equipment sales that was flat in quarter 1. Trucks organic sales decreased 3% on the minus 3 truck volumes showing generally then continuous price discipline in the market. Construction Equipment grew 16%, driven by Volvo-branded Machines in Europe. Organic sales growth for buses, 14% driven by [indiscernible] mainly in North America. And since we are doing complete buses for [ Pivo], of course, the sales value per vehicle is rather high here and Volvo Penta grew sales by 14% with solid growth both in Europe and North America.
One example, as I alluded to last time is also the growth in data center segments continues showing a continuous high activity levels. I think it's portfolio and growing for Penta. So that's very interesting. Underlying service sales growth also amounted to impressive, I should say, 6% in the quarter with positive service developments across business areas, while it was flat for VFS, and that was, of course, related to volumes in the other business areas. They were keeping penetration, as you will see.
VCE and trucks did grow with 7% and 10% organically. And the 12-month rolling service sales amounted to SEK 123 billion and represented over 26% of the group's revenues, and it was actually 28% for the quarter. And again, coming back to the importance of that, that we have diligently worked with, I mean, the service penetration and the rolling fleet and getting higher penetration per unit here, loyalty and closeness of course, but also resilience.
On the truck side, a busy quarter as well, came with a lot of product news and launches. Here, you see the Mack Granite, it's the iconic Mack Granite. That is now fully updated still with this typical Mack look. And we reveal that the ConExpo together with a brand-new Mack Keystone that is also for the demanding heavy haulage application amongst others.
And of course, a very, very important launch for Mack since these 2 models are also part of the 2 core segments of Mack moving forward and also as we speak. Also in North America, Volvo Trucks and Mack Trucks started production of their new regional haul trucks, the Volvo VNR and Mack Anthem. So as I said, we are more and more now completing the rollout and are getting ready for having a well-greased system in North America and up to a level that we have seen in Europe before.
Volvo has begun also on-road testing. Maybe some of you did see that in the introduction movie here also heavy trucks powered by hydrogen combustion engines, and we are continuing this approach, obviously, with battery electric, combustion engines driven on renewables and also fuel cells and the commercial launch is planned before or around 2030.
On the electric side, as I said, will reveal a number of new executions now in April. For the versatile and vocation, and you can say also HFM and FMX selected models are now available with up to 470-kilometer range on 1 charge, which means that the absolute, I should say, I mean, the absolute majority of missions in those segments will be handled with overnight charging. And that is, of course, a change in the game for our customers.
You remember it was a time when you could live a completely with [indiscernible] 1 short also on the phone, that change the way you're thinking about that. Volvo has also, as you did see, showcased a new long-range FH Aero Electric with a range up to 700 kilometers, and that is a true benchmark, obviously. Same there, then you can do missions even really the most advanced long haulage operations and also coming with mega charging as you did see.
Market forecast. For North America, we repeat our market outlook for 2026 at 265,000 in retail sales. Order levels have been elevated, as you have seen in recent months, while retail sales, that is how we measure the market or retail deliveries, pace is lower because that is related to the order intake at the end of '25, but is expected now to regain momentum in the second half of the year. And the [ EPA 27 ] prebuy is included in that view. So we don't expect any material prebuy, which I think is a good thing for the market dynamic generally speaking.
European registration pace continues to gradually increase. We have lifted our market forecast with 5,000 units to 310. [indiscernible] units for '26 and similar, even if we have a falling trend still in Brazil, market contracted through '25, as you know, and we see that continuing, but still we are lifting the forecast from 75,000 to 80,000 heavy duty trucks in '26, so plus 5,000.
Indian market is driven also by a healthy replacement demand, infrastructure investments and a general increased freight demand. And here, we live with 20,000 units for medium- and heavy-duty trucks up to 400,000 vehicles. And on a side note, I have to say that I'm very proud of also our joint venture in India, Volvo IC commercial vehicles that actually sold for the first time because they have their fiscal year ending at the end of March, as companies normally have been in Asia and sold over 100,000 vehicles for the full year, which ended now done in March 31.
And what is interesting is, obviously, this is a 15% growth -- and historically, we have been thinking about Volvo commercial vehicles, a slightly medium duty, but the reality is that it's more than 25,000 heavy-duty trucks, but we are also calling heavy-duty trucks. So that is starting to give real leverage and also carry back opportunities for us when it comes to technology. You know that we are already doing the 5- and 8-liter engines in India with very, very good results and the industrial system is gearing up here. We announced -- so I think that is a great achievement by the team and a great asset moving forward.
And for China, we reiterate also our 2026 total market forecast for of 760,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks for the China market. Book-to-bill, positive, obviously, as you have seen, 135% for medium and heavy duty in the quarter and 99% rolling 12-month rolling. North America, we had a book-to-bill of 12% on the back -- on one side, on the back of strong order intake, mainly from fleets, but also retailers coming in, but also that we still had planned stop weeks.
So you have that, so to speak, effects on the 2 sides between 25% and 30% of the total availability. So that was quite extensive. But we said, keep the balance but keep ready. We had still also some stop days during April. But from May, we will use the installed capacity. So we feel that the right decision to utilize that flexibility tool for quarter 1 here, even if that came with under-absorption cost, and you will hear Mats talking a little bit about that later on here.
Europe, 150%; South America, 134%, and the Industrial Systems may need to be tuned upwards given the gradual increased customer demand. We have been in balance here already as we speak. And now when we see, so to speak, support from order intake, we will have the flexibility tools necessary here. And you can see primarily Asia, Africa were seeing a good balance.
Market share side in Europe then continued to deliver strong market share for the quarter with the Volvo at 19.3%, the Renault Trucks at 9.4%, giving a total share of almost 29%. On the battery electric side, as we said, as more OEMs are now delivering Volvo Renault Trucks delivered 23% combined market share for the quarter. And we will still see these swings now moving forward as the market still is rather low.
Now we are coming in with new executions and that will come back, et cetera. I think it will be this type of stepwise approach. But more importantly, we proceed with our efforts, we proceed with our 3-pronged approach, as I said, branched approach with combustion technology, electric and hydrogen to drive decarbonization.
And in North America, we had a combined share of 17.2%. So starting to go in that right direction. Super important that Mack Trucks self-help is giving results. We are now at 8.7%, and we see a good momentum here that we are not hampered by our own industrial system and other deficits. And one example is the cab over engines. I mean, the waste collection units where Mack has always had a leading position when we had, so to speak, the problems here, 1, 1.5 years ago, we're down to 30% market share in that specific segment. Now we're back to plus 50% and so that shows also how important it is that we have the capacity in the different type of segments here.
And also, Volvo Trucks are back on the right track, absolutely not on the level where they should be, but back on the right track and regains their position. And of course, it will be further support when over the road is expected to become better here.
Brazil is strong, 23.7% and also a good start, I should say, 22.5% combined for Volvo and Mack in Australia. Construction Equipment. Closing of the acquisition of [indiscernible] then in this quarter. So Monday has passed. We always talk about Friday on Monday. But Monday has passed a very good sentiment when it comes to the integration. We are super happy to welcome all new retail and service colleagues into the group in these core markets. It's Germany. Sweden, it's Baltics. And all our great colleagues here will further strengthen the Volvo CE service and market position in core markets.
And that is, of course, one of the key factors also of continued success and such an important part of the TCO for our customers. So a great opportunity to further strengthen customer centricity, competitive set through total offer in resilience. By the way, one of the areas that we will further discuss at the CMD.
It is also with regret that the decision has been made, as I alluded to in the introduction to later in the year, discontinued the subscale and loss-making Rokbak articulated hauler business. We have tried all together to be frank. But given also the fragmented footprint here, we have decided that the Scottish [ mother ] well site will be focused into a center of excellence for large rigid mining business carrying the Volvo brand. And the onetime costs related is under the adjusted section and you have seen that.
When it comes to the market forecast, it can be rather swift, we are not changing anything in relation to the last report, the full year report of '25. So plus 5%, Europe and China flat for the other regions. Book-to-bill, I should say, also a positive sign that sends 110% in the quarter driven primarily by North America, but also somewhat by Europe. North American demand is broad-based, as stated last report, similar pattern, data center energy sector onshoring of manufacturing as well as the possibility of -- for customers to write off quicker.
And the European demand is still encouraging but with also here increased uncertainty among customers due to the conflicts in the Middle East. Buses, important launch actually. You know that Mexico is super important for us when it comes to buses. The new 9,800 was launched for the coach market in Mexico, marking another milestone in the Mexican passenger transport industry. The Volvo 9800 has the new aerodynamics and the comprehensive design, fuel consumption improvement of 4% and [ Coach ] is a very important tool for passenger transport in it. So 4% with the miles produced is very, very important.
Book-to-bill 130%. It was mainly driven by somewhat lower delivery volumes. However, with higher sales value per bus, as I said, because it was a lot of prewar into those figures. But we have a solid field rate for the full year here Volvo Buses. And Volvo Penta, great to see on the marine side to start with recognized for its leadership in marine innovation, sustainable marine innovation with its hybrid electric IPS propulsion that was named the Technical Development of the Year at the [ Motor boat awards ] in Düsseldorf or maybe you have visited the Düsseldorf boat show. I always find it interesting, by the way, that it is in Düsseldorf. It's not a lot of lakes or seas out there, but it's a great show anyhow and a very important one. and also strong market interest.
What you can see on the slide here, that is the Volvo Penta the 1-liter gasified power generation offering for mission-critical applications such as data centers. And that I said also that is growing, obviously, not at least for standby and [indiscernible] power and good order board are. Book-to-bill reached 95% and 92%, 12-month rolling. But generally speaking, a good activity level, what we have seen basically during quarter 1 is if you take the 4 main segments, marine commercial, marine leisure and industrial speed, all stable levels when it comes to order activities and deliveries.
It is really in the power generation, Europe, Middle East slowing down temporarily, and that is related to the conflict because you have an instant effect of that. But obviously, that depends on the length of the conflict here. Yes, I can also mention, sorry for that. No, I think we're ready with that.
And VFS finally continue to grow the portfolio on a currency-adjusted basis through solid new retail financing penetration, as I said, sustained and portfolio performance continued to be good, although delinquencies and write-offs remained at the high levels that we have seen during previous quarters, but it's still well within the bandwidth, depending on where we are in the cycle.
So no signs of worries in that regard. And we also continue to focus on enhancing the portfolio when it comes to utilizing, so to speak, the VFS capabilities insurance offering is now on the rise, for example. So that was the business update. So I will leave the word to you, Mats, for the financials. So the one in only Mats Backman.
Thank you for that introduction. So looking into the first quarter financials, then and starting off with the group net sales.
So organic net sales increased by 2% comparing to last year. Vehicle sales were flat year-over-year, while service sales increased by 6% with contribution from all business areas. Looking down at the organic net sales development in the different regions. European volumes increased, which led to increased sales of 15%, driven mainly by trucks and construction equipment. In North America, sales decreased by 16%, driven mainly by trucks, while sales were higher for both buses and Penta. In South America, net sales were flat comparing to last year and net sales decreased by 2% in Asia.
Overall, FX effect was negative with about SEK 9 billion due to a general appreciation of the Swedish krona. And the main driver was the U.S. dollar depreciating about 15% versus the sake. The adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 12.2 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 11%. In Q1, earnings were again supported by the positive development of our service business, R&D net expenses and a positive product and market mix.
The U.S. tariff net cost was on the expected level of about SEK 1 billion. Severe weather conditions in the beginning of the quarter led to higher freight costs. In the first quarter, we continued to see higher manufacturing costs on the back of under absorption from the stop weeks in North America.
The R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.4 billion with a year-over-year effect of SEK 800 million. The year-over-year increase in selling cost is mainly due to selling costs from acquired business. And FX had a negative impact of SEK 1.1 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the SEK compared to our main currencies.
In the first quarter, cash flow amounted to SEK 400 million. The limited cash flow contribution in the quarter was mainly driven by the seasonal buildup of working capital. Return on capital employed trend declined 24.5% on a rolling 12-month basis. Net cash in industrial operations amounted to EUR 57 million, but this is, however, before the dividend distribution of SEK 26 billion in April.
Net sales for group trucks decreased by 1%, and this was driven by lower volumes, but offset by positive development of the service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 7.6 billion with an operating margin of 10.1%. The adjusted operating income and margin was flat currency-adjusted comparing to last year. Lower volumes in North and South America, higher manufacturing, freight and tariff costs were offset by continued good development of the service business and a positive market mix and currency had a negative impact of SEK 800 million in the quarter.
Construction Equipment organic net sales increased by 14% versus last year. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 2.5 billion with an operating margin of 13.6%. Product mix with more Volvo-branded products and more heavy machines together with positive development of our service business were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, tariff cost and accounting effects from the Swecon acquisition had a negative impact on the result. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 150 million in the quarter.
And then moving over to buses. Organic net sales increased by 11%, driven by both higher service sales and a positive vehicle mix. Bus delivered another strong quarter with adjusted operating income of SEK 492 million with 8.8% in margin. The result was supported by good price realization in combination with high efficiency in the production. In the first quarter, U.S. tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact on the financial performance. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 47 million in the quarter.
Penta organic net sales increased by 13% which was driven by more industrial engines and the service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 1 billion with an operating margin of 19.8%. This was again on the back of strong volume development for both engines and services. But despite unfavorable market product mix and the U.S. tariff costs. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 145 million in the quarter.
And then looking at Financial Services. The credit portfolio adjusted for currency increased slightly to SEK 264 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 9.8%. Portfolio performance continue to be good with delinquencies and writers under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 938 million, impacted by increased credit provisions, but supported by the portfolio growth. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 80 million comparing to the same quarter last year.
And then finally, looking at the forward-looking guidance and starting with the FX. Based on the currency rate end of March, we expect the neutral currency impact year-over-year in the second quarter. The net impact from tariffs in the second quarter is estimated to be around SEK 1.2 billion. We reiterate our expectations on R&D net capitalization at approximately SEK 3 billion for the full year 2026. With a year-over-year negative effect of about SEK 1 billion. And finally, we also reiterate the guidance from last quarter for a tax rate of 24% for the full year 2026. So with that, I leave it for Martin to summarize.
Thank you, Mats. I will be short on my summary, so we have time for questions. But I think what you should have with you a strong resilient quarter given external any moving parameters. Strong order intake coming back, obviously, that we are reiterating the main aspects of the market conditions and a growing service business. So with that, Johan, I think we are ready to start the Q&A.
Thank you, Martin. Thank you. So in our Q&A, we please pick your most important question, so we respect your peers as always. We have people on the line, and we have people in the room. We start with Agnieszka.
2. Question Answer
Agnieszka from Nordea. Maybe starting with your outlook for North America truck market. We're a bit surprised that you didn't actually raise the outlook given the fact that order intake was rather strong in Q1. So maybe just can you comment on what's your expectation or explain what was driving the order intake in Q1? Were you surprised by the strength? What's the quality in the order book? Is there any risk for cancellations? And how is also above the production planning and kind of delivery planning from that orders?
Thank you, Agnieszka. I mean -- and that is, of course, an important one I alluded to. I suspected that there should be a number of questions around that. But if you look at, I mean, the build rate and the delivery rate, basically retail sales, because, I mean, even if it goes a little bit quicker since it's retail sales that is constituting the total market than in Europe, where you have the registrations, it is still a lagging effect, obviously.
And since we had still a soft order intake in quarter 3, 4, 20 -- and we were idling [ 25% ], 30% in first quarter still keeping up our market share still even improving them. And also some but fewer stop days in April, and we are in balance in May. And then when you -- I mean do the backward calculation and take out the medium duty of our registration is approximately a run rate in quarter 1 of 50,000, 50,000 plus. Then you have a total market or 2 those -- so to come up to the [ 265 ] means that now from now on, you will have a gradual recover.
And what we have seen is also obviously, that the order coverage is, first and foremost, on the right level now in quarter 2, but it's also a number of fleets that would like to secure their slots. And that is, of course, the balance to your point, so you keep the quality and the pricing discipline given the uncertainty. And here, we have also as we see it found the right balance.
But for us, it holds when it comes to the figures of -- and if we should come to this, I think it's another positive effect is that you don't -- will have a negative overhang into '27 because it will be the underlying demand balance that is actually driving it rather than some prebuys. And I think that is a very positive thing for the market and the market dynamics. So we feel it's throughout the logic actually all right. Take a follow-on. I think it's in the interest of everyone here. So please.
Maybe just a follow-up actually to Mats. Can you quantify the under-absorption costs you had in Q1? And how should we think about it in Q2 and going forward?
I mean, as we said, without giving any kind of exact numbers then, but you can see -- if you're looking at the kind of the bridge effect and the numbering on trucks, then it's a top 3 then on that. So it is a rather big effect and it was bigger than in the fourth quarter. And then going sequentially into the second quarter, like Martin said, I mean we are basically balanced with the current capacity then in May, meaning that this underabsorption is that kind of declining, then we're getting into a normal situation, so to speak, in North America starting May.
And I mean, when you look at the bridges, if you take the truck bridge, I mean, we try to have them in a reasonable hierarchy also when it comes to the positives and negatives as we are well aware of. So it's also some guidance.
Good. We'll take one more in the room. Hampus from Handelsbanken.
Thank you. Sorry for staying in U.S., but on your [ 265 ] outlook, you're increasing run rate in May. Is that another step then after the summer? Or is it initiative in 3 steps? That's my first question.
And second question is also in the U.S. relating to the orders, you were up 78%. Market is up 90%. We hear [ Freightliner ] international are kind of more guess on pricing. What's -- are you getting your share? Or are you holding back by being more conservative on pricing? Or how should we think about that?
Yes. I mean -- and I think when it comes to the order share, I think that is, of course, an important information, but still to take a little bit with the grain of salt also given the fact that it depends on different companies, and I cannot -- I don't know the other companies strategy on that.
But how ready do you ought to make order placements quite far out in time. And when we look at, so to speak, the reasonable step-up that we're doing now, now we -- we did it to Mats' point, 25%, 30%. So that capacity is what we have ready now and then obviously, as we go along and feel that the, so to speak, the underlying demand is supporting this level and beyond, we will, of course, have the opportunity to further go up.
What we can say at this point in time is that with the [ 265 ], it will be a gradual recovery and thereby a gradual ramp-up because -- we don't want to come too long -- too far out in the order guidance, so to speak. And that is related to your second part in order to also have the right balance when it comes to the commercial discipline also because -- or the commercial opportunity, I should say, also in a stronger market.
Gord. We move to the telephone line and to Jefferies, Michael Aspinall.
Yes. Michael here. I'll switch over to Europe, and I was a little bit surprised on that kind of upgrade to the Europe market guidance. So maybe you can just give us some context as to kind of what regions or end markets you see driving that? And what you kind of incorporate from a macro perspective, I see some of the European countries downgraded the GDP forecast recently?
Yes. Thank you, Michael, for that question. And first and foremost, I mean, there's no, I think, draw mine in the uptick. I mean we are talking about [ 5000 ] units, but [ 310,000], to your point, is still a strong market. But we're also coming into a replacement cycle when we had also very strong shipments for I mean, with the exception of [indiscernible], obviously about for a number of years. So it's also part of that dynamic.
Rather broad-based, I have to say, then you can say that it's a little bit lower the order intake in relation to lost years, quarter 1, but that was also not a very strong quarter. So comp figures are very tough to have here. So generally speaking, it's broad-based rather solid and it's supported by what we have seen now. But I mean, [ 310 ], good market but not extraordinary strong, so to speak, in relation to what we have in replacement, et cetera.
Good. We'll take one more question on the telephone line, and we're leaving the word to Klas Bergelind from Citi.
The first on the tariff guide of SEK 1.2 billion into the second quarter mark. I'm trying to understand how the new section to [indiscernible] from April 6 will now impact your construction equipment and buses. I guess construction and buses could see a sequential increase in the tariff cost while trucks to go down or provide an [ MSRP ] input credit. Is that the way to think about it? More color here, the split between the segments on the [indiscernible]. That's very useful.
It was a little bit difficult to hear them. But how much time do we have with -- starting with tariffs. But maybe to give kind of an overall view on where we are and the outcome for the first quarter, but also the guidance. So we had the SEK 1 billion for the first quarter, and then we're guiding for 1.2 billion in the second quarter. And if I heard it correctly, then the question is the kind of the distribution between the different business areas.
And the reason behind the increase of the net impact in the second quarter is mostly related to construction equipment actually cost. With the changes in Section 232 then from, I think it was April 6, that will also include excavators and wheel loaders, meaning that we would basically have the full product range when it comes to CE included landing Section 232 and that will increase the cost up. So it's on CE.
So we say that we had about 50% in the first quarter was related to CE of the tariff in the second quarter is probably somewhat more than 50%, and so that is increasing. Then we have trucks and I'm coming back to trucks a little bit in relation to the 2 other kind of moving parts with [ AIP ] and the Section 232 credits on the truck side.
But we also have buses with an impact of about SEK 100 million on a quarterly basis, that is related to the [indiscernible] bus system from Canada going into U.S., also a Section 232 question. But what you can ask yourself, and that's probably the question then. So will we see any kind of positive effect then going forward when it comes especially to the truck side than driven by the Section 232?
We have nothing included in the first quarter and not in the second quarter when it comes to credits on the Section 232, the [ 3.75 ]. We don't have anything included on any claims when it comes to the changes on the -- that will probably be positive then, but we will have -- we will play [indiscernible], but we will also have customers claiming money from us then, but net, probably positive. So it is probably an upside, but we need -- we need to kind of clear guidance in order to not the exact number. And secondly, also a kind of a clear guidance on when we can get the credits done, but nothing of those kind of positive items are included in the first quarter.
Good. We'll take one more on the telephone. We'll leave the word to Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley.
Shaqeal from Morgan Stanley. I'd like to ask about North America. It seems like we're in an unusual situation. PMIs are up, spot rates of risen orders have increased freight volumes and not meaning to be improving. So what are the customers saying? Is the reduced capacity enough to warrant replacing the fleet? Or are they placing these orders who view that trade demand improves in the second half of the year? And perhaps also wanting to secure build slots ahead of [ EPA 27 ]. And then we've heard some reports that customers are increasingly pushing for delivery later in the year. Have you noticed this also? And can I confirm that there are no penalties in case of cancellation?
No. But I think generally speaking, you did a good analysis yourself there about the different dynamics that are coming into play. We have had more or less over-the-road freight recession for quite many quarters, obviously. So there is a replacement need coming in. And then also, to your point about, I mean, also number of underlying effects on that, but both spot rates and contracted rates getting better.
And then there is probably also a certain element, not necessarily only on [ EPA 27 ] that is not significant as we see it, but more of also getting availability of the slots, both from a dealer perspective as well as a customer perspective because deal is also what we see in the inventory levels are on the right level. We don't have any excess inventories. We didn't need to have that, obviously, since we are building in North America as well.
And that's the reason again why from the order figures, it can look like that we are a little bit on the lower side of share in relation to the total. But I think at the end of the day I remember [indiscernible] said that we own the midfield, but we lose with [indiscernible]. So I mean, at the end of the day, I think order share is one thing. But at the end of the day is registrations that count.
And then Shaqeal, to your point, it's important to have the right balance in the order board because if you are taking it too far out in time, that is our view, then you need to introduce a number of rather complicated mechanism of the cancellation fees or what have you in order to not having a hedging into the board.
Good. We take a question from Mattias from DNB.
Mattias Holmberg, DNB Carnegie. I would like to go back to Europe, and I think that your raised market guidance is pretty clear. But I would be interested to hear about the ramping. I understand that you might have increased capacity gradually through the year. Or are you sort of at the level where you need to be? I know that this is a quite small revision to the guidance, but still, and then also on that topic, we heard from one of your peers that they had sort of canceled the plan, the capacity increase in Europe due to customer demand hesitancy on the back of what was going on in Iran. I take it that this is not something you're seeing given the raise guidance, but it would be interesting to hear any comments on this at all.
Thank you, Matthias. If anything, as we said, I mean, not a material change in that sense. But I think more importantly, that is supporting a rather good level and that is what we see.
As I said also in the introduction here or in the presentation, if anything, we are planning for some adjustment upwards. But that is well within our flexibility tools because with the current levels that we have both in [indiscernible] for Volvo, but also [ Borg ], we can also contain this type of flexibility moving forward. We did see also Mats you said that, well, also -- I mean, Europe did a very strong quarter 1. Good capacity utilization, good leverage -- and that was an important thing of offsetting, so to speak, the rather big other absorption that we did have in North America. So I feel that in Europe, we are in -- we start from a good balance, and we can support, so to speak, this upside absolutely during the course of the year. I don't know if you would like to add something?
No, nothing dramatic. And we have a really good flexibility both upwards and downwards in Europe.
That is a really strong machine that is going on for us in Europe, actually.
We move to Bernstein and Harry Martin.
The first question I had, I'm interested in your conversations that you've had with customers about the Iranian crisis and the rising fuel cost because the fact that you haven't seen any cancellations mean that the customers are just confident the crisis wouldn't be a long-term one or however long at last that they will be able to pass on higher diesel costs into their customers in the freight market.
Thank you, Harry. I think it is I mean I was in U.K. at the end of last week and talked with quite many of our bigger holders that are, of course, mainly the British base, but also doing quite a lot of hauling into Europe as well and in the U.K. I think it's a mix actually of the 2.
First and foremost, I mean, how it will play out when it comes to the duration, to your point, eventually, I mean, I think the bigger topic will be how that will affect, so to speak, the general economy and the general demand. And that was a conversation that we had there, and I have quite many customers.
And to your other points, even if that is coming with a certain time lag, especially when it comes to the more fuel consumption-based applications like long and regional haul, you have fuel clauses, obviously. But of course, there is a time lag of that as well, but that is not abnormal that it's fluctuated. Now it has been very dramatic in a short period of time, obviously. But I should argue that it's more the general economy and the sentiment there that will eventually affect the needle [ transporter ] there by demand.
Good. Karl Bokvist from ABG.
The first one, if I remember correctly, when you look at Europe, the Volvo Aero of orders or something was a material part of the order intake full year last year. And if we then think about North America, however, if you're willing to comment the first quarter or how you think about this year, the new products as a share of your order intake and what that effect could be even?
Yes. I mean, of course, we are -- as we have said, we have had the staggered approach, and we are not doing clean cuts, obviously. But for the sleeper segment, we will, more or less, as from now have the, so to speak, the full effect that it will be the all new [ VNL ].
It's -- we are phasing out, so to speak, the legacy on the sleeper -- as we said also, we are starting now with the [ B&R ] that is the second big segment for Volvo Trucks in particular, the regional hole now, and that will be mix during the course -- during the year on that side. For Mac, it is still a big proportion of that is legacy because what we presented now with the Mack Granite and Mack Keyston, the vocational segment that is very much on the core pieces of max volume that will come later this year.
So the absolute majority will be legacy. But more importantly, for Mack is really that we have got the machine to be more smooth. We have not had the same type of industrial capability, as I have alluded to in North America, and in particular, for Mack that we've had in other regions. And there we have seen considerable improvement. So we feel more confident now when demand is coming back also on the Mack side. And then again, I have to say that even if we don't talk so much about it, but the CE part of the [ cabover ] engine for waste collection and other type of construction activity, et cetera, is on very high volumes in relation to what it has been. So it's a mix.
Good. Thank you for that. We turn to UBS and Hemal.
Hemal Bhundia from UBS. I appreciate the color regarding the transport operator. Would it be accurate to say that when transport operators start to pass on these high fuel cost to end customers is when you possibly saw an upward inflection in order momentum? Or has it been relatively stable throughout?
Yes it's probably the same question. No, but I think, again, as we said, I mean this is, I mean, the more important to fix. So if I understood the question correctly, Hemal, this is the more important question. I mean, what will happen with, so to speak, price pressure if that continues for -- I mean the transport being one, it could be chemistry or chemicals and different things and thereby bringing inflation and thereby us, in turn, affecting the general economy.
I think that is much the bigger question then, so to speak, the immediate effect of fuel increases for the customers because they can pass it on in the fuel clauses. That is our review. Then, of course, I mean, it depends on what segment you are operating, how the contracts are looking, but more material volumes of our -- of our type of customers base have few clauses for sure. So [indiscernible], it's coming back to the general economy more.
Good. We move to Goldman Sachs and Daniela Costa.
So I wanted to ask regarding the 900 head count reduction you did in the U.S. and in Europe. This is despite, I guess, the better outlook in the increasing production. So I imagine it's more on the fixed cost side. Should we think about that as it was kind of a one-off in 1Q? Or is it part of like a more broader revisit of your fixed cost base? How should we think about savings and impact sort of fee margin from here? Maybe if you could address that.
No. I mean this is a kind of continuous ongoing process when it comes to kind of efficiency and savings. I mean, more of a kind of a continuous improvement. But -- this time, we saw that we have had a couple of changes when it comes to our way of working and also the organizational changes that made it kind of possible to do a little bit of a bigger exercise this quarter.
And like you said, it's affecting about 900 employees, and we had -- if you're looking at the one-off than about [ SEK 800 million ] on that one. But this will kind of continue going forward, but not to the extent that you saw here with restructuring costs and then it's something we're doing every day in terms of continuous improvement, though.
And if I may add there, I mean, just to give a little bit of flavor to it. I think also we announced a couple of I mean it was around Christmas that we are a little bit changing our way of working in our industrial and technology backbone with what we now call trucks technology and industrials and that is more regional based. And that has a structural impact of this.
But also the technology development, we are working in different ways. And we see that also in our commercial business areas, both in North America and Europe. So this is a structural, so to speak, improvement in order to further make sure that we have the competitive set to be clear and also to increase speed.
I mean the structure that we have had has really served us well, but we have also been [ rather stubborn ] and having that for 10 years. We are not super reorganizations all the time because that is causing a lot of confusion. Now it was the right time. More flow-oriented when it comes to our industrial backbone, regionalized agility and speed in order to make sure that we are fit for the future.
Yes. And you can summarize it as white collar kind of productivity efficiency, what's behind it.
Right. Maybe we take one more final question. And we turn to JPMorgan and Akshat.
Akshat from JPMorgan. A couple of questions, please. The first one, coming back to the conflict. Can you just remind us on your main sensitivities to energy costs or material costs on the P&L and what's the time lag with which this should impact the different business segments, please? That's the first question.
And the second question is on the truck margin. As we think about 2026 outside of fixed cost under absorption and U.S. loan [ call ] sales, what are the other key drivers we should look at in terms of improvement in that truck margins for the year, please?
I can start maybe on the margin or on the truck margin then. So if you're looking at -- if we take the kind of the first quarter as a starting point than sequentially. So what's kind of changed in that -- and in terms of the positive ones and what we can see is a kind of -- and this is a year-over-year effect as well. And so we see a declining kind of currency effect given that the development we have seen on currencies to the later part of the quarter. So that's one item.
Important, I mean, the North American production system that we talked about that we're starting to get in balance in May is kind of also positive from a sequential point of view than -- on the negative side, I mean, we don't know where it will end up if we're looking at kind of the Middle East and what's going on. But what's already now clear is that we will see increases when it comes to freight cost for an instance. And I mean that's something that we see fairly early then.
We're not seeing it so far, but it will probably come down -- and then it's kind of unknown the kind of general impact on the overall business cycle than from Middle East, but also a couple of the highlights then. And as we are taking up the guidance when it comes to the total market for Europe, we feel pretty kind of confident on Europe and our capabilities in Europe. So those are the kind of big ticket items.
And as you know, I mean, I fully agree. But I would also like to reiterate the strong development in services. And I mean it was 7% underlying in the quarter here. And when we look at, so to speak, the contract penetration, I mean, we can continue to focus on that and I mean, the portfolio growth that we have had. And then you should not only think about under absorption in North America, I think also, again, coming back to the better capabilities for Mack trucks in particular, should not forget that Mack has been hovering around 6%, 6.5% market share.
Mack is not a 6.5% market share company. It's an iconic brand with fantastic products, but we have not have the end-to-end capability. This is a year where I think we can take further steps in the journey as well. So it's as always, segment by segment. Latin America has been depressed. And we have guided for further deterioration. We have been holding up volumes well there anyhow in market share. Now we're guiding a little bit upward.
So again, average is the mother of nothing. So we need to continue to be very granular in our strategy execution in order to be successful. But I think it's a strength with a rather hefty underabsorption that we had in quarter 1 to deliver 10.1% on the trucks.
And go that [ you ] stressed service. I mean one data for 28% of the total in terms of the top line service for the quarter, it's a very, very strong number.
Good. On that note, we thank you all for coming and for tuning into the webcast. And with that, we thank you, and see you next time.
Thank you, everyone.
Volvo B — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Net sales: SEK 111B (+2% organic)
- Adj. op income: SEK 12.2B, margin 11%
- Service sales: +6% organic; 12‑month service sales SEK 123B (~28% of quarter revenue)
- Book-to-bill: 110% in the quarter
- EPS/ROCE: SEK 4.09; ROCE 24.5% (rolling 12 months)
🎯 What Management Says
- Resilient, solid quarter: earnings held up amid volatile markets with strong order momentum and customer loyalty.
- Portfolio & product cadence: new offerings and regional moves; BEV expansion led by FH Aero Electric long range (700 km).
- Strategic moves: Toyota joins Cellcentric; Flexis arrangements with Renault/CMA‑CGM; Rokbak exit; continued cost discipline and service growth.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- 2026 outlook: NA trucks ~265k retail, Europe ~310k; India ~20k, China ~760k.
- Tariffs & credits: SEK 1.2B second‑quarter tariff, potential upside from credits; FX neutral in Q2.
- Costs & taxes: R&D capitalization around SEK 3B for 2026; tax rate 24%.
- Flexibility: balance via flexibility toolbox; no material prebuys; service growth remains a key driver.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- NA demand vs. orders: recovery underway; quality and timing of bookings discussed; mix and capacity utilization monitored.
- Tariffs distribution: detailed split across CE/trucks/buses; potential credits but not assumed in guidance.
- Europe capacity & margins: upside capacity deployment supported by strong Q1 leverage; ongoing efficiency gains.
⚡ Bottom Line
Volvo Group delivered a resilient Q1 with solid profit, robust services growth, and a clear path to profitability as markets normalize. The mix of new BEV and traditional products, strategic portfolio moves, and strong capital discipline support earnings momentum, while macro uncertainties keep management vigilant on tariffs, energy costs, and regional demand shifts. For shareholders, the results reinforce the value of Volvo’s diversified truck, construction, and services portfolio and disciplined capital allocation.
Volvo B — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
So welcome this morning to the Volvo Group Fourth Quarter Press Conference. Today, we'll do, as we always do, we will listen to the presentation by -- from our CEO, Martin, and then listen to Mats. And then we'll follow up with a Q&A session.
So with that short introduction, let me hand over to you, Martin.
Thank you. Thank you, Johan, for that. Also from my side, welcome. It was always special with the full year also report and of course, also in more detail quarter 4. So maybe then to get started.
As you know, we are still in a period with uncertainty in our key regions and in particular, for North and South America, where we have seen a continuation of cautious stance among our truck customers. Having said that, lately in the later part of the quarter and also in the beginning of the year, there are signs of stabilization and somewhat a recovery. And while Europe had a positive volume development in the quarter, volumes in both North and South America were lower in the quarter and are expected to be weak also in the first quarter of 2026. And that is, of course, related to the order intake that we had earlier in '25. But however, when it comes to the market forecast for the full year of 2026, we are revising our market forecast upward for North America as we do also for Europe, even if that is more marginal.
Despite many moving parameters, the group had a solid performance in the fourth quarter with a flat level of sales if you adjust for currency and the divestment of SDLG, an adjusted operating margin of 10.3% and good cash generation. Operationally, we continue to drive what we can impact ourselves, not at least by utilizing our flexibility toolbox to maintain balance between demand and supply, and very important where we are in the cycle to keep inventories at the right levels. Focus is also on effective cost control, commercial discipline and the service business. And services did have a positive development during the quarter with a strong underlying growth of 5% adjusted for FX and SDLG, showing that our customers around the world continue to utilize their vehicles and machines. And that is, of course, a very important feedback. And it also means that the fleet replacement rate eventually will have to increase. That is a given.
While having strict cost control, selling, admin, industrial, our priority in innovation and technology continues. At the same time, also in these areas, we are continuing to gradually adjust and to have a correct time phasing for our project and product portfolios. Having said that, there are segments that are moving quicker than anticipated with good growth prospects, both here and now and moving forward. The huge demand, a little bit surprising also for smart and not at least speedy alternatives for energy and power is driving the demand for Volvo Penta's power and energy solutions, not at least for data centers and AI factories. And with the recent launch in the beginning of this quarter of the gas-powered G17 engine that is building on our existing technology and industrial stack, meaning that we can benefit from scale immediately, that position will strengthen further. The same goes also for mining and defense areas where we will continue to increase focus.
So moving forward in these turbulent times for global trade, we focus, and I've already said that, on activities that we can influence ourselves. Apart from what I've said in terms of cost and commercial discipline and services, we continue to build on our strong regional value chains, combined with global capabilities. The world is moving from a more global synchronized system more in steps into a regional platform. And there, Volvo is well positioned.
So as we conclude the turbulent '25 with solid sales and group margin supported by underlying resilience, I would like to take the opportunity when we have the full year report to thank customers, business partners and colleagues for great cooperation. With uncertain business conditions, strong and close relations are -- they are always important, but more important than ever. And finally, the world will still need efficient and effective transport and infrastructure and energy solutions, and the group is well positioned to leverage these opportunities moving forward.
So if we look then into the fourth quarter, net sales declined to SEK 124 billion on the back of lower truck volumes, but it was flat development when adjusted for currency and divestment of SDLG. We delivered a solid result in these turbulent times, resulting in an operating income of SEK 12.8 billion and a growing operating margin of 10.3%. Cash flow amounted to SEK 19.3 billion, which resulted in a net cash position in Industrial Operations of SEK 63 billion. Return on capital employed in Industrial Operation at 25.3% and EPS SEK 4.73.
Moving over to volumes. Truck deliveries declined by 3% in the quarter to 56,700 vehicles with drag in North and South America that I've already said, offset by then growth in Europe. For Construction Equipment, deliveries decreased by 46%. But when adjusting for SDLG, the machine deliveries increased by 9%. And if you want to be even more granular, they increased by 10% for the Volvo brand since Rokbak back then previous Terex didn't increase as much. So 9%, excluding SDLG.
Electrification, still with different uncertainties related to the electrification, not at least when it comes to a number of the enabling conditions, underlying demand continues to be rather slow. But orders for fully electric vehicles adjusted for SDLG increased still by 3% and deliveries increased with 20% when adjusting for SDLG. This growth was mainly supported by a 15% growth of electric light commercial vehicles in the Trucks segment. That is not surprising. We are now more and more into the new Master also Renault Master for Renault Truck in that segment. And obviously, that is also a segment that will continue to grow with last mile deliveries, et cetera.
Coming over to top line and sales. If we start then with vehicle, machines. Overall sales of vehicle, machines declined 1% adjusted for currency and SDLG. Truck vehicle sales were down 4% on the minus 3% truck volumes, which is showing that price discipline also in this quarter in the softer market environment is working well. Construction Equipment adjusted for SDLG was growing with 13%, which was supported by sales of Volvo-branded machines in mainly Europe. Penta, 18% sales growth, FX adjusted, supported by North American data centers as well as the mining segment, also good demand in Asia. And Buses had a growth of 28% in the quarter, primarily driven by the Prevost brand in North America and by the Volvo brand in South America.
Top line for service. Our service business, as I said, continued to develop well, and we grew 5% in quarter 4 adjusted then for currency and SDLG. You will hear that a couple of times with positive development in all business areas. And these developments, as I said, and I think this is very important, are proof points of one part, our push for more extensive service offerings that have been alluded to many times before, not at least when it comes to service, repair and maintenance contracts, et cetera, but also then that our customers continue to utilize their vehicles and machines and that the installed fleet needs to be renewed sooner or later.
Buses were particularly strong with growth of 17%, driven by strong sales in Europe, Asia and Mexico. And Penta also continued to be strong with 8% and the same goes for VCE, excluded then SDLG, also had 8% growth. So the group's service business pacing at SEK 124 billion, 12 months rolling represent almost 26% of the group revenues, which is, of course, good in this part of the cycle.
On the Trucks side, very proud, of course, and maybe you did see also the press release yesterday, super proud for our Volvo Trucks colleagues here. Second year in a row, Volvo Trucks was the heavy-duty champion in the European heavy-duty market with over 90% market share. And we really see that also on the back of strong customer satisfaction and a very competitive offering. You did see the FH Aero here that has really been doing great strides into the market. So tremendous offer by the Volvo Trucks team and led by Roger and all the colleagues there, but of course, the complete value chain.
Volvo Trucks in North America, also important, delivered the first -- or the 125 all-new Volvo VNL to Highlight Motor Corporation, marking the largest order of the next generation of the all-new VNL in Canada to date. So now we are getting in also with this step-by-step with these volumes. And the first all-new Mack Pioneer was delivered to a customer in October, in the beginning of the quarter. And this marks, of course, a significant milestone for Mack Trucks, bringing the rejuvenation of the product range into the market.
Also in October, the Volvo Autonomous Solutions team and Waabi, the leader in physical AI, have successfully integrated the Waabi Driver with the Volvo VNL Autonomous redundant truck. With this integration complete, both companies together now are focusing on really deploying this and support broad commercial deployment.
Market environment, always very interesting. If I start with North America here, North American freight market, as I said, remains if you look at the figures and also the order intake during the bigger part of the year in recession. And so far into quarter 1, we believe that the North American will continue to be primarily replacement driven on the back of an aging fleet. The EPA '27 emission change will, in our view, only drive, if anything, a modest prebuy effect. So our current assessment of full year '26 is 265,000 heavy-duty trucks in '26.
And we have increased then the forecast with 15,000 units versus the guidance provided in quarter 3. And what we can say is that later part of quarter 4 and also in the beginning of this year, we are starting to see somewhat better activity level. If that is a sign that will prevail, maybe too early to say, but of course, there are a number of parameters supporting that.
The European registration pace continues to increase, and we have lifted the '26 total market forecast up to 305,000, which is then 10,000 units versus the guidance we had in quarter 3. Brazilian market contracted through '25, and we believe that the total market will continue to decline. We repeat and reiterate our total market of 75,000 for '26, even though that there are some movements in Brazil, not at least related to FINAME and the financing. And all of us that have been part of this for a while, we know that, that has normally a rather big effect. So let's see if that can support on the upside. But we -- for the time being, we reiterate that. And both for India and China, we are reiterating the market forecast as we had it also for quarter 3 or in conjunction with quarter 3, I should say.
Book-to-bill, the overall book-to-bill for medium and heavy-duty amounted to 94%, both for the last quarter and for 12 months rolling. We managed our industrial system well in quarter 4 and had a book-to-bill balance both in Europe and North America. And also, as I alluded to with the right levels of inventory, that is super important where we are in the cycle right now. And for North America, we kept the balance by also working with a number of stop days, causing an under-absorption that Mats will talk about. But that is the right thing to do now rather than to take a further structural adjustment downwards.
So on the back of the weak U.S. demand during the fall, we will also have some stop weeks for Volvo and Mack in the U.S. in the first quarter. And we take stop weeks, as I said, in quarter 1 rather than to structurally adjust for further -- adjust further downwards. And the reason is that we anticipate also partly supported now by recent order activity, a gradual recovery during the course of the year and in line with our full year guidance that we are increasing then, as I said, to 265,000.
In South America, we have been more restrictive with the order slotting in quarter 4, and that is also explaining then the book-to-bill of 80%. We wanted to ensure that we did sell out more retail inventories, and we now have a situation that is in good balance when it comes to the inventories. Africa, Oceania and balance. And in Asia, book-to-bill mainly impacted by, number one, strong deliveries in quarter 4 in combination with lower demand in Middle East and Indonesia in the quarter.
On the market share then, Volvo, Renault Trucks continued to deliver strong market shares for the full year. Volvo at 19% and Renault Trucks at 9.4%, giving a total of 28.4%. And Volvo Trucks then ended as a market leader. And on the battery electric side and despite that more OEMs are now delivering BEV solution, by the way, which is good because we need to accelerate that for Europe. Volvo Renault still holds a 39.1% market share combined for the year.
North America, Mack Trucks self-help activities, not at least to stabilize the supply chain paid off during the course of the year, and they have step-by-step now regained momentum and their share is now 8% for the full year and later part higher. And Volvo Trucks are back on the right track also after the introduction of the all-new VNL here. So we also did see better market shares during the later part of the year, but 8.5%, I think it was for the full year.
Brazil, Volvo remains market leader, market share of 23.2%. And Australia has been transitioning during the year from Euro 5 to Euro 6. We were ready with that rather early, lost market share when market were selling out Euro 5s, but we have seen also a good momentum during the later part of the year. So we expect that to stabilize.
VCE selected Eskilstuna. You're all aware of that in Sweden as a location for the crawler excavator factory for the European market. Capacity of 3,500 machines in the 14 to 50 ton classes. And these excavators will be built on a mixed model assembly line for all these models, but also for both electric and internal combustion engine. And the closing of Swecon acquisition, our retail partner and wholesale and retail partner, I should say, in Sweden, bigger part of Germany and Baltics is expected to close this week on January 31. And this acquisition will strengthen Volvo CE's market position further, not at least then in the very important service business.
Market forecast, similar picture, you can say, as truck. For North America, we are now guiding a flat market in relation to previous year. That is a 5 percentage point upgrade since the forecast in quarter 3. Same goes for Europe. Now we say 5% as midpoint of the market saw somewhat growth, and that is also an upgrade of 5 percentage points. China, as a matter of fact, same plus 5% as midpoint, 5% percentage growth. And for South America and Asia, flat, and that is no change in relation to what we said in conjunction with quarter 3.
Book-to-bill Construction Equipment reached 118% in the quarter, driven by both North America and Europe. North American demand is broad-based from the digital development, data centers, energy sector, onshoring of manufacturing as well as the possibility for customers to write off 100% of the machine value of the first year of operation. In addition, refilling of inventory at dealers given the better outlook now and where also dealers would like to have the right type of capacity to deliver to the market. And the European demand is encouraging with the larger markets such as Germany, U.K., Sweden now gradually coming back as well as the fact that dealer inventories are clearly moved into customers' operations. And also the other markets are supportive with largely then positive book-to-bill.
For Buses, the transition towards electric vehicles in city traffic continues in quarter 4. Just to mention one very important example. Volvo Buses secured an order from Vy Buss for 73 electric buses that will operate in the city of Boras, from April '27. The order comprises city and intercity buses, including articulated buses. And just as a small anecdote, they will also be produced in Boras. So even if you are talking about regional value chains, maybe that is a little bit of an expiration of having that full circularity in the same city, but it happens to be there, we are very proud. And book-to-bill, 91% in the quarter, 98% that is more relevant for the bus business, as you know, with rather long lead times. So that is a healthy and good book-to-bill. In the quarter, somewhat lower was on the back of somewhat lower demand in markets such as Brazil and Mexico.
Penta, as I said, it's interesting to see the rather high -- or I should say not rather, but high activity level when it comes to the power generation and industrial segment. Launched its first gas engine, both natural and biogas for sure, to strengthen the lower emission power generation offer. This will further strengthen Penta's position to meet the global energy demand across many segments and not at least data centers and AI factories. And again, that I think is interesting now with more and more of the customers in this space wanted to have alternatives for lead time and volumes. And with the control system capabilities that you have today to really bring in more engines with the right type of capabilities is a very efficient way of doing it for lead times, for cost and for efficiency.
And the Volvo Penta IPS Professional Platform, the biggest now pod for propulsion systems, the biggest IPS, which was launched in '25 and opted for commercial use, but also for big yachts has made strong inroads in the yacht segment and very, very well received with several OEM now placing orders. And Volvo Penta has a positive demand momentum. Book-to-bill reached 109% in the quarter and 102% 12-month rolling.
Financial Services, finally, the portfolio continued to grow with a stable new retail financing. It doesn't look like it's growing here, but that is -- I mean it's growing, adjusted for currency. And the sound portfolio performance was maintained, although increased delinquencies and higher write-offs. But if you see where we are in the cycle, I should argue that we have a stable and good situation well under control here. And the penetration rate full year '25 came in on a solid level of 30%. And also what is positive to see is the focus that we have had also on insurance offer from VFS working together with other business areas and the group brands to enhance the total offer for our customers.
So by that, I will leave the word to Mats Backman, our CFO, to present the financial figures. So please, Mats.
Thanks, Martin. So looking into the fourth quarter financials then, and we are starting off with the group net sales. So net sales decreased by 2% on a currency-adjusted basis compared to last year. Vehicle sales dropped by 4%, mainly due to lower volumes on trucks, while service sales increased by 4% currency adjusted with contribution from all business areas. European volumes increased, which led to an increased sales by 10% currency adjusted, driven mainly by Trucks and Construction Equipment. In North America, FX adjusted sales decreased by 8%, driven mainly by Trucks, while sales were higher for both Buses and Penta.
In South America, net sales decreased by 18% currency adjusted compared to last year, and this was driven by lower truck volumes. In Asia, net sales decreased by 10% adjusted for currency, driven by Construction Equipment and the divestment of SDLG. Excluding SDLG sales increased with 21% in Asia. Other regions experienced slightly increased sales, mainly driven by Trucks and Buses. Overall, FX effect was negative with SEK 11 billion due to a general appreciation of the Swedish krona. The main driver was the U.S. dollar depreciating 13% versus the SEK.
The adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 12.8 billion with an adjusted operating margin of 10.3%. In Q4, earnings were again supported by the positive development of service business, continued lower operational expenses and improvements from our joint venture business. The tariff cost increased during the fourth quarter with a net impact for the group of SEK 800 million, and we expect net impact from tariffs of about SEK 1 billion in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, we continue to see higher underlying material costs in North and South America, and we had under-absorption costs in the U.S. manufacturing system on the back of lower demand levels. The net R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.5 billion with a year-over-year effect of SEK 800 million. FX had a negative impact of SEK 2.1 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the SEK.
In fourth quarter, cash flow amounted to SEK 19.3 billion. The cash flow contribution in the quarter was driven mainly by strong inventory management, partly hampered by continued high level of investments. Return on capital employed trend declined to 25.3% on a rolling 12-month basis. And the net financial position amounted to SEK 63 billion with support from the cash flow in the fourth quarter.
Net sales for Group Trucks decreased by 3% currency adjusted, driven by lower volumes, partly offset by positive development of our service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 8.1 billion with an operating margin of 9.5%. The lower adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin were mainly driven by lower volumes in North and South America, higher material and tariff costs, partly offset by lower operational expenses together with good development of the service business and joint venture performance. And currency had a negative impact of SEK 1 billion in the quarter.
For Construction Equipment, net sales decreased 8% FX adjusted. Adjusted for FX and the SDLG divestment, net sales increased by 12% in the quarter. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 2.6 billion with an operating margin of 13.9% Product mix with less SDLG from the divestment in the third quarter and more heavy machines together with positive development of our service business were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, the tariff continues to building up and had a significant impact on the financial performance. The volumes were lower versus same quarter last year, driven by the SDLG divestment and currency had a negative impact of SEK 700 million in the quarter.
For Buses, FX-adjusted net sales increased significantly by 26%, driven by higher deliveries on both buses and services. Buses delivered another strong quarter with adjusted operating income of SEK 683 million and 9% in margin. The result was supported by higher volumes with continued good price realization together with service business performance. In the fourth quarter, the tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact on the financial performance and currency had a negative impact of SEK 113 million in the quarter.
Penta net sales increased significantly by 16% adjusted for currency, which was driven by more industrial engines and the service business. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 608 million with an operating margin of 11.9%. This was again on the back of strong volume development for both engines and services despite unfavorable market product mix and higher freight costs. Currency had a significant negative impact of SEK 337 million in the quarter.
And then looking into Financial Services. The credit portfolio adjusted for currency increased to SEK 256 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity of 10.4%. Portfolio performance continued to be good with delinquencies and write-offs under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 889 million, impacted by increased credit provisions, but supported by the portfolio growth. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 84 million compared to same quarter last year.
And then finally, looking into a summary of our forward-looking guidances in the quarter and starting with FX. Based on the currency rates and 2025, we expect a negative first quarter effect from transaction and translation of about SEK 2 billion. We expect R&D net capitalization at approximately SEK 3 billion for the full year 2026 with a year-over-year negative effect of about SEK 1 billion. And finally, the tax rate that we estimate to 24% for the full year 2026.
So with that, I'm leaving for Martin to summarize 2025.
Thank you, Mats, for that. So let's go to that. We are closing also the full year 2025. Just a few comments on that. We can summarize the year with close to SEK 480 billion sales with vehicle sales declining 5% FX adjusted on -- or vehicles and machine sales declining 5% FX adjusted on 8% less truck and 8% less CE volumes with -- and on top of that, which I think is important with also several production adjustments throughout the year back and forward and across regions. Another important piece of resilience is services that did grow 2% FX adjusted. And as I said, our own activities, but also that customers are continuing to utilize the equipment.
Gross income margin was at 25.3% despite volume decline, certain price pressure, even if commercial discipline was good and tariff headwind. And adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 51 billion with a margin of 10.7%. Cash flow at SEK 22 billion for the year and the return then on capital employed came in, as I said, on 25.3%. And the Board of Directors then proposes an ordinary dividend of SEK 8.5 and an extraordinary dividend of SEK 4.5 for approval at the Annual General Meeting in April later this year.
So by that, we end the presentation, Johan, and I think you will lead us through the Q&A session.
Right. Thank you, Martin. Very well. We will do, as always, please concentrate on your most important question. And we have a number of guys on the telephone line, but we'll start in the room, and we'll start with Bjorn from Danske Bank.
2. Question Answer
I don't normally say this, but congratulations, solid execution in the quarter. It's about time to say. Yes. On North America, again, you're talking about a replacement-driven market and also a minor EPA-driven prebuy. But I mean, isn't this really about, I mean, increased visibility? I mean, tariff situation is better visibility, EPA, much more better visibility than previously, and we have record high truck age in North America. I mean gut feeling isn't it, this could be a really good year in North America. And with that backdrop, maybe a comment on what to see about the under-absorption of fixed cost in North America throughout the year.
Yes. If we start with your comment and analysis regarding North America, I think it's absolutely correct. If we can continue to see that what has been put on the table now in terms of tariffs from different regions, flows, et cetera. And on top of that, the EPA '27 clarification uncertainty, I think that is very, very important for our customers. The cautious stance among customer has rightly so been what will happen, how does it look like, et cetera.
And we see that also a little bit in the volatility in the order intake because, of course, some of the bigger fleets, depending on where they are sourcing, et cetera and said, okay, we place orders, but we will also have a discussion later on, so we give -- so I fully agree. I think this is very, very important if that will continue with a certain level of stability on top of it with average fleet age, not at least that we haven't had an on-road, almost freight recession for a couple of years now. There is fundamentals underlying that is supporting that.
Then it's more the time phasing to your point. And as we said, if we look at the order intake during '25, we had more of a hammock situation in quarter 2, quarter 3 that was reflected in quarter 4. We said we will be brutally disciplined on our balance in inventory because we know also in North America, if you don't have that, there is an endless discussion about the inventory. I think we managed well. So we had an under-absorption already in quarter 4. And as we guided for, quarter 1 is still there because that is more reflected later part of quarter 3, beginning of quarter 4. But then we see already now a more positive situation for later part of -- really late part of quarter 1 and beginning into quarter 2. So there we start to see that it's more coming the effects that you're alluding to, Bjorn.
And if anything about the under-absorption, I can -- I think it's okay, Mats, give you a guidance that if anything, a little bit higher as we expect right now under-absorption in quarter 1, even if -- I think we managed it well anyhow in North America for quarter 4. But if anything, to be a little bit more granular. But again, right thing to do, muddle through now, keep the eyes on the ball, do what is right because the market will come back in North America. And then you should be on the right level when it comes to capacity and inventory.
No, I think -- and it's like you're saying, when it comes to under-absorption, the effect -- we had an effect in the fourth quarter, and that was visible on the slide I had on the operating income. And given what Martin talked about with the kind of stop weeks in the first quarter. And then, I mean still being dependent on the order intake earlier in the fourth quarter, and then we see a gradual pickup from the other, but still under-absorption in the first quarter, yes.
We'll take one more question in the room from Agnieszka from Nordea.
I have a question to Mats. Could you please update us on your CapEx plans for 2026 and also going forward? And maybe if you could provide also the status update for your Mexican factory? And do you still plan to have an in-house battery production or how you feel about these plans?
I can start with kind of the capital expenditures. And if you take a couple of years view on the CapEx, we are on a higher level, and you saw that for 2025 and especially driven then by the investments we are doing in Mexico. And in terms of timing, we will still have some of the investments in Mexico also in 2026, meaning that we will still be on an elevated level when it comes to CapEx, but I would say slightly lower comparing to what we have seen in 2025, and it's starting to normalize then, but still somewhat higher than driven by the bigger projects that is ongoing there.
But I think also, I mean on that note, we have also been leaning into a number of bets now when it comes to the retail business, which I think is super good and interesting. Volvo Trucks did it in Australia. We have done a number of smaller things and then now Swecon, for example, of course, that is also -- but what I like about that is also really continue to drive strong resilience for us, service business. But also competitiveness because at the end of the day, our business to have the total offer close to your hands in a more and more world of hypercompetition, I think, will be crucial and critical.
And then battery production, I think both when it comes to technology, time phasing and maybe what are the right levels of scale, a lot of learnings have been done. So if I may a little bit take -- maybe you don't start to build a 72 whole golf course directly, maybe start with 9, even a pay and play, et cetera, et cetera, and then you move along. And a little bit same here with technology development, what is the reasonable scale, et cetera.
So 2 things. We will need that for different reasons. I mean it will be -- I mean the battery [ act ] and other things and electrification will come and will be there as a very important part for sure, for many different reasons, not at least for competitiveness, by the way. But it will be a time phasing, both when it comes to when will we start and how will we ramp it up because how you are thinking about cell and module and pack manufacturing today is rather different than only, let's say, 5, 7 years ago, I should argue. So we have learned a lot being close to our partners here.
Good. I think with that, we move on to the telephone line, and we have Klas Bergelind from Citibank. Can you hear us, Klas? No one on the line there.
Then we continue in the room. Hampus from Handelsbanken.
Two questions for me. When do you think you will present the EPA 2027 truck given that that's a big decision-making on fleets? And is it the reason for you guys to maybe present it earlier this year with price increases to see how tough we look for the fleets?
Second question is related to tariffs. If you could maybe model a bit for the full year given the discount system we're seeing in 232?
I can maybe start with the tariffs then. I mean like we said, about SEK 800 million in the net effect in the fourth quarter. And we are -- what we foresee is about SEK 1 billion in net effect in the first quarter. And then we have the different business areas are kind of going in different directions now then because for -- if you're looking at Buses, for instance, then you have a tariff kicking in with Section 232 then with the business we have going from Canada into U.S. So there, we have an increase then that will kind of gradually -- it will gradually increase.
And the same goes to some extent for Construction Equipment as well then with -- I mean the Section 232 is kind of helping the Trucks, but it's not helping the Construction Equipment. When it comes to Trucks, I mean, we are still building up, but what we foresee is kind of a decrease then going in maybe to the second quarter sequentially. But to make any guesses beyond the first quarter in this environment, I find pretty tough then. But with what we know right now, it's the SEK 1 billion in net effect in the first quarter.
But I mean how the play is really there. I mean of course, now -- and coming back to Bjorn's question also about stabilization, I mean, if that is continuing to be stable, as quarters go along, I mean it's an absolute situation with tariffs and it's a relative situation with tariffs, obviously. And eventually, it needs to be compensated, obviously. And there, as we see it on the Trucks side, it is an opportunity basically.
Then you can say also that we had already before this in pipeline plans for CE, both when it comes to wheel loaders and excavators for production in the United States. So that is ongoing so we saw basically.
And then when it comes to the presentation of -- yes, we will do that, obviously, because it's coming in 1st of January. And it will be -- yes, we will present it during the year here. So we will have a good visibility. I should argue that it's not -- I mean, given now the clarity of this and not at least when it comes to the life length or the life cycle demands, and you can say not relaxation, but clarity on that. I should argue that it's a more reasonable step for the customers also. So that's the reason why we don't judge, so to speak, the prebuys to be significant in relation to previous events when you have had a much bigger step basically.
Good. Now it seems that we -- still no connection with Citi, all right, then we continue with the DNB Carnegie, Mattias?
I'm interested to hear more about the U.S., which we've already talked a lot about. But given your sort of relative advantage versus some peers in the U.S. market, I would have expected to -- and also adding that you have a very strong lineup now with models, both for Mack and Volvo. I would have expected to see a stronger market share on the order intake in Q4, in particular in light of the big order number we saw for December. So perhaps could you elaborate on, is there anything in particular going on in that quarter competitive perspective that sort of explains the lower relative market share here?
Yes. I think -- I mean if you look at the order intake, I fully agree. I mean December, in particular, was very strong for the industry. I think it was north of 40,000, 42,000 or something like that. And I mean I think it's exactly related without knowing, but it is also a way of securing deals, et cetera, because as we go along, the market will be what the market will be, where are you producing, what do you need to do when it comes to your price realization, et cetera.
So -- and so I think it's a little bit distorted by almost like preordering, to be frank. We feel rather good with what we have in order intake in quarter 4 because I think we had 11,500, give and take now, Mattias. And if you think about it, that is the incoming then for later part of quarter 1 and quarter 2. And that is basically supporting a level of like 200,000. If we are talking about stable or somewhat uptick in market share, that is supporting a level of 260,000 to 265,000. And then we are also saying that we are thinking about a gradual recovery.
So if we are not completely out of bounds when it comes to how the market will come or develop during the year, I think the order intake that we have had is in balance with what we see. And again, it has been super important for us to have demand, supply inventories in control because if you are starting to get too much of disconnection there, it's also dangerous. But I agree to what you say. I think it's a little bit of, yes, possible preordering.
Good. We continue in the room, and we have Karl from ABG.
On Europe, which seems to be improving a bit. Is it -- you talked about it a little bit during the presentation, but is it due to any kind of asymmetrical country mix or because you actually see the European truck market genuinely improving here?
Very good question. No, I think it's rather broad-based, to be frank. And so I mean we have, of course, a lot of contracts with our European organization that's rather broad-based. It is, so to speak -- and we did see it already. I mean we have alluded to it a little bit already in quarter 3 reporting. We did see it, volumes came in higher in deliveries and in orders for quarter 4. I should argue that it continues now in the beginning of the year.
We don't see -- I got that question from -- I get that question from time to time, I mean how much is defense and energy and infrastructure and playing in. And I mean the investment programs, not too much yet, which I think is also another support for Europe for the years to come here. But this is more based on, to your point, Karl, I mean the underlying market as we know it, that a little bit the same dynamic that we are somewhere expecting also for North America, but a little bit earlier here. And I mean we are guiding for 305,000. And I mean it's a rather good market, I mean to be frank, so...
Yes. Right. Good. There seems to be some disconnection with the telephone lines. So we are free to continue in the room if anyone want to continue. Karl?
Otherwise, they can text it to you.
Yes, they can.
They can do that. Can send an SMS to you. Sorry, Karl.
Yes. No worries. Meanwhile, I'll switch to Buses. I'm not sure about the competitive landscape in the textile city of Boras. But when we think about the electrical transition on Buses, which seems to have gotten going a bit faster than Trucks, how do you think about the competitiveness there? How you position yourself in terms of performance, price points compared to, let's say, non-European competitors, for example?
No. I mean we see that in quite many of the deals around the globe, not only in Europe, not even only in Boras, by the way, but around the globe that in many deals, we are meeting more or less 100% Asian competition, Chinese primarily competition in the tenders and the bigger deals. And as Volvo participating, there are, of course, I mean differences here. But not at least when it comes to fully electric offerings, we have been early out.
I think what is promising to see, obviously, we are working, of course, a lot with our competitiveness when it comes to, I mean cost and the right type of execution and everything like that. But even more important is that I feel that -- and that is encouraging for other electrification patterns that we see is that, I mean the city side of buses have been doing this for quite some time now and are more and more mature to really take the full equation into account. The famous TCO, the famous life cycle equation, both when it comes to revenues and cost and uptime, et cetera. And I think that is playing in our direction, not saying that the others are not doing a good job. We have the biggest respect for that.
But I have to say that if I look back on '25 on Buses, and maybe when I stood here 1 year ago, I should say that I'm more optimistic today than I was 1 year ago. So I think we have found our place. We know how to -- where we can, so to speak, be successful and where we cannot be. In some of the deals where it's a pure CapEx upfront play, we are not normally successful in that because we have another business model when it comes to uptime, fuel efficiency, safety, not at least and cybersecurity.
There is a question from [ Jefferies ], texting in here. So the question is on -- first, on the group functions and other, what are moving the lower cost base there?
I would say generally 2 things, I mean given the big picture and the improvements we have seen. So first of all, as you have seen overall on the operating expenses, we have lower costs, and that is going for the group functions, especially. And secondly, as you also probably know, we have some businesses, it's group functions and other. And we have a bus business called Nova Buses that you probably recall, and that has been a turnaround if you're looking at this year where they have done really, really good, meaning that we have been going from loss-making into profit throughout the year. That is also contributing to the group functions and other. So those are the 2 kind of main items looking at the delta on that one.
Right. And also from [ Jefferies ], they wonder whether the Mexican plant will have any drag on EBIT margin in 2026, given that we are sort of ramping during the year.
No, I mean we have material.
So it's kind of a slow, gradual ramping, so not material.
And we think that will come in handy, by the way, also talking about the recovery because we are anticipating then a gradual ramp-up, rather small volumes to trim in Mexico during the later or you can say, second half. And so...
Then we will move on with -- from our -- let's see here, one question -- we need to be quicker. Bernstein -- wonders. And we have Harry Martin from Bernstein. He wonders, given the EPA '27, et cetera, and the guidance for North America, how do you think about pricing? Will price on trucks still be tight in 2026? Or will that sort of be possible to push price to some extent in '26?
I mean -- and you can add to this. I think first and foremost, and that you can see also, I mean in top line in relation to volume, et cetera, I think the commercial discipline in the group, but also part in the market as we can judge it has been better than, if I may say, so normal in our industry, which I think is a good thing. I mean better flexibility, generally speaking, in the industrial systems, higher share of service, et cetera.
So pricing better. Then there's no secret, obviously, that, I mean supply/demand and normally, when we see a recovery, when it really takes off and you're gaining momentum, there can be a squeeze. And then, of course, in that part of the cycle, there are always opportunities. When will that happen during this recovery, given that we say that we are rather -- we are really anticipating a recovery, but still a gradual one during '26. So let's see. But the dynamic will be there when that starts to happen, obviously. I don't know, will you say something more?
No, well said.
Thank you, Mats.
Next question is coming from London from Daniela at Goldman Sachs. He wonders some of your peers are talking about autonomous commercial start in 2027. And where are you guys on that?
Yes. I mean as I think it's familiar, we are working -- I mean when it comes to autonomous commercial start, I think in that case, Daniela is meaning, I mean, the hub-to-hub public sort of on-road segment in U.S., right? We are already in commercial operations for confined areas, et cetera. And as we speak now, we are running fully autonomous lanes in U.S. together with our key partners there. We have built up also terminals in order to host this and make it possible. Still, it is with safety drivers, but now we are getting really close to this, maturing the whole system. So this is without being too exact, but this is not too far away.
And even to say to Daniela, that I think you are in the right neighborhood, which I think is a significant opportunity for the industry on that happening. Because if you think about it with automation and robotization, as an old production engineer or it was a long time ago, not old, but I remember that during the '80s, in particular, in the '90s, it was an over automization of the factories, and an over-believe in things.
And then you really found, so to speak, the right type of balance on where should you have robots, where should you have CNC machines, where should you have different type of place and pick and smart, so to speak, control towers, et cetera. And where should you have a human interaction. I think for the hub-to-hub concept, it's a very good way of looking at the same journey that if you can really do it for hub to hub with terminals along the road, you will take out a rather big part of the equation that are bottlenecking, so to speak, logistics today. And that's the reason why I'm very -- I mean very optimistic about that development.
There was also a follow-up from Daniela regarding the fleet mix. We spoke about having more fleets into the mix in 2025. Do we see that, that continues also into 2026?
Do you want to say something?
No. You can start.
No. I mean if you look at where we are in the cycle, I should always argue that when you're getting -- start with Europe, when you're getting a little bit more of a broad-based recovery, then all actors are coming into the market. Because obviously, if you are -- I should say, in that respect, I mean a smaller midsized fleet, you are even more cautious about, okay, how should I think about my replacement, et cetera. So I should argue if we continue to see that more broad-based recovery that we talked about in [indiscernible], the mix will be more evenly distributed and not leaning because it's more in the down cycle where we normally have an overrepresentation of fleets.
And maybe to add, and I know that Daniela is normally on top of the kind of the revenues per truck as well and looking at the kind of the development over time. And I think if you're looking at specifically at the fourth quarter, it's also a question of mix if you are looking at the revenue per truck now with a higher share of LCVs, light commercial vehicles as well as a geographical mix with less North America. So I think that is also important to say.
Then Klas Bergelind from Citi, who was first on the line here, but he has a question here. He asks, in Q1 2026, will you get any benefits from the Section 232 MSRP credit?
No. We see it probably gradually into the second quarter rather than the first quarter.
Right. And also in Europe, you talked about better demand in U.K., Sweden and Germany in Construction Equipment. But how about improving demand for Trucks, at a country level, what countries are you seeing any improvements?
No, Mats -- I mean -- and partly, we got that question here. I mean rather broad-based and also certain signs that more of Central Europe is moving that has been a little bit slow, not at least Germany, et cetera. So rather broad-based, which I think is good. And it's also related to where we are in the replacement cycle, et cetera.
Right. I think we are ready to close unless there are any further -- Mattias?
Maybe a bit premature, but you alluded to already have thought about adding capacity for construction equipment in the U.S. before the tariffs. Could you give us an indication of if this could sort of fit within the current CapEx program for construction equipment or sort of the potential timing? Are we talking a year, 5 years and potential magnitude of investment?
Great question. I mean you can say that it's in the current because, I mean one of the advantages we have is that we have rather big from [ SA ] or real estate facilities in Shippensburg that came along with Ingersoll Rand acquisition back in the days. And then we have reshuffled and the industrial footprint, but we see clearly that we need that for wheel loaders and excavators to start with. And thereby, we have a good starting point because they are made for that type of equipment, and we can utilize, so to speak, the real estate.
And we were there actually during the fall, looking at that. So I think it's well incorporated, and we will start at the -- during the later part of this year for wheel loaders and then gradually move in, so to speak. So I think that is an advantage that we have, that we have, so to speak, rather good facilities, both for powertrain and on the Trucks side and also then on the Construction Equipment side that, if anything, has been underutilized from a square feet in that case standpoint.
I'll take one final one from UBS. So we made sure that we covered all the lines here. We guided for SEK 1 billion headwind from tariffs at the time of Q3 for Q4. We came at SEK 800 million. What was the difference versus what we saw in Q3?
We said about SEK 1 billion. So I don't think it's not a huge difference on that one. But I mean to a certain extent, timing. I mean it's difficult to see if you see the accounting effects when you are building up inventories and having a positive impact from that. So I would say more kind of a timing.
Timing through the balance.
Yes. And you can always say exactly, I mean exactly where do you have all the inventories when you start and now we are getting more and more a steady-state situation. On the other hand, we will work on the other side of the net effect also with commercial conditions as well.
Absolutely. Right.
We covered all the banks. We're on time. So thank you for coming. We'll see you in a quarter.
Thanks a lot, everyone.
Thank you.
Volvo B — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
So welcome to the third quarter press conference from the Volvo Group. Today, we will listen to our President, Martin Lundstedt; and to our CFO, Mats Backman. And then we will follow up with a Q&A session. So with that short introduction, I hand over to you, Martin.
Thank you, Johan, for that. And also from my side, welcome everyone. It is encouraging to see, by the way, the new VNL here. You did see that -- maybe you did see Johan, most here in the studio, by the way but for everyone listening into the web, I think you did see the VNL. Now when it's a little bit turmoil situation in North America, it's encouraging to know that we have a great product range coming out when the market is turning back basically.
Yes. But coming to this quarter then, we are in a period, as you know, with weaker demand in our key regions anticipated to some extent but also, of course, some other factors. And especially then for North America, with a high level of uncertainty and wait-and-see mood among our customers. But I have to say, despite the many moving parameters that we see right now, the group had a solid performance with an adjusted operating margin of 10.6%, showing a good earnings resilience also with these moving parameters. Here and now, we focus on what we really can impact in the group. We have adjusted and will continue to adjust our operation, utilizing the toolbox that we have for volume flexibility. We have applied strict and effective cost control, have remained firm on commercial conditions and continue to drive our service business that showed a positive development during the quarter with underlying growth of 5% adjusted for currency and the divestment of SDLG.
That is showing that our customers around the world continue to utilize their vehicles and machines, which means also that the fleet will also need to be replaced eventually also in North America. We have generally good traction also to adapt cost across the board, selling admin, industrial while we, at the same time, are maintaining a high priority on innovation and technology. But also in these areas, we are continuing to gradually adjust given the situation, for example, for the transformation with slower demand in for example, electrification and thereby, we are time facing some of our activities.
Specifically also for volume flexibility, we are in good balance for almost all markets and business areas. The only exception is group trucks. North America and partly, I have to say during the quarter also South America, where we continue to have more costs in relation to the current demand. Firstly, then, if you go to North America, there is a wait-and-see mode, as I said, amongst customers to place orders given the current uncertainties. We are, therefore, continuing to adjust production levels in addition to what has already been done during spring and summer here, but also other cost to minimize the under-absorption going forward.
And secondly, of course, even if that is a good timing from another perspective, we still have some effects from the continuous ramp-up of the all new on-road ranges for both Volvo and Mack where extra resources still are needed. But I think it's important also in a period that we are into now to reiterate that even if the situation in group trucks North America affected and rather heavily than the global group trucks margin negatively yet another quarter, we have high ambitions for North America. We have a strong platform to maneuver from now, and the continuous ramp-up of the new range is important, so we are even stronger, both from a capacity and a product range standpoint when the market comes back, and it will come back. So don't worry about that. Leverage from volume in that particular market will then be crucial, obviously.
Moving forward, in these turbulent times for global trade, we focused, as I already said, on activities that we can influence our ourselves. We continue to build on our strong regional value chains that in today's landscape is, of course, a strength, combined with global capabilities and also then that combination to mitigate the effects from tariffs and other type of uncertainties. So as we conclude the third quarter with a solid group margin and resilience, I also would like to say a big thanks to customers and business partners and colleagues.
So if we summarize the quarter in figures, net sales declined to SEK 1,100 billion on the back of the lower truck volumes. It was a year-over-year drop of 5%, but actually an increase of 1% when adjusting for currency. We delivered a solid result in these turbulent times. Adjusted operating income of SEK 11.7 billion and operating margin of 10.6%. Cash flow was negative at SEK 1.7 billion, which resulted in a net cash position in industrial operations of SEK 45.4 billion. Return on capital employed at 25.2% and EPS was at SEK 3.71 per share then.
Moving over then to the volume development. Truck deliveries declined by 4% in the quarter with lower volumes in North and South America, while deliveries in Europe improved. As you know, we've had a very strong order intake, and we needed also to push that through now. So good work in Europe here. And for Construction Equipment, deliveries decreased by 4%. But when adjusting for the divestment of SDLG, machine deliveries increased by 14%.
In Electrification, with the different uncertainties, both as regards to cycle, but also the enabling conditions and the rollout of them, underlying demand continues to be slow in the field of electrification. Orders for fully electric vehicles decreased with 4% and adjusting for SDLG again, order intake declined by 13%. Deliveries increased with 27% when you have adjusted for SDLG, and the new Renault Master had a significant positive impact in the truck segment.
So in summary, despite the slowdown, we continue to push here, obviously, which is, for example, reflected still in our high market shares for medium and heavy-duty trucks with more than 50% in Europe, even that we see now peers are coming in also with different type of products. But however, as we and the industry have the products and solutions ready, as you have seen for quite some quarters now, it is more than overdue for policymakers and other key stakeholders to push for the enabling conditions such as charging infrastructure and actions to stimulate demand in these sectors.
When it comes to the top line for vehicles or vehicle sales development, the overall figure then for vehicles and machines declined 1% adjusted for currency. Truck vehicle sales were down 3% on the minus 4% truck volumes, which is, even if it's an average proof point, but still a proof point of our price discipline also in this softer market environment. Construction Equipment did grow with 9%. And when adjusting for SDLG again, the growth was 17%, which was supported by sales of Volvo-branded machines in mainly Europe.
Volvo Penta's 11% sales growth was supported by North America and Europe in both the Industrial and the Marine Commercial segments. Service sales, as I alluded to in the beginning, a positive development, and continues to develop well, as I said, with a growth of 4% adjusted for FX in quarter 3 with a positive development in all business areas. But if we also adjust then for SDLG, growth was underlying 5%. And these are proof points of our push for more services per unit, of course, installed unit, but also that our customers continue to utilize their vehicles and machines and as I said also before the installed fleet needs to be renewed sooner or later. Penta was particularly strong with 17% growth on the back of increased service penetration in the industrial segment. As you know, that we have been growing the Industrial segment over the last quite some years now. And of course, now the installed population starts to be rather material, but also strong sales to OEMs for Volvo Penta.
The group's service business pacing at SEK 126 billion, 12-month ruling, and represented over 25.5% revenues, 12-month rolling, actually 28% in the quarter, which adds stability and earnings resilience. As per September 1, and also the SDLG divestment was concluded and finalized. And I would also like to take the opportunity to say it was done in good faith between the two partners. It has been a successful journey. And now we wish the Lingong Group and SDLG continues good success with their business also in the future.
When it comes to truck news, Euro NCAP's first-ever safety test for heavy-duty commercial trucks took place late 2024. We reported that here, where Volvo scored 5 stars and Renault scored 4 stars and took the podium. In September '25, we did it again, I can say, and both Volvo and Renault kept their scores, and Renault also earned the City safety label. And this is important to us. Safety is a key priority for our customers, and we stay committed to our core values here, quality, safety and environmental care. And that's why it feels very encouraging where an external panel such as Euro NCAP recognize our focus in these areas and rate the group's brand at the top.
In September, also Volvo Trucks passed the landmark of having 1 million connected trucks on roads with further opportunities then in our service journey to serve our customers with advanced digital solutions. Mack Trucks started production for the all-new Mack Pioneer at its Lehigh Valley operation facility in Macungie, Pennsylvania, United States. And that is, of course, also a very important milestone for Mack Trucks since we have not had for quite many decades now a real, so to speak, proposition for the long haul segment. So a very promising start of that as well.
Market environment. Of course, early days, we are now guiding for '26 for the first time in a market that has a lot of uncertainties. But if we start in North America, as I've already been in, customers are currently in sort of wait-and-see mode. We have trimmed our '25 forecast to 265,000 units, and that is minus 10,000 in relation to previous forecast. And for now, we forecast the 2026 retail sales levels around 250,000 heavy-duty trucks. That is, of course, subject to a high level of uncertainty, given that there are quite a number of parameters in flux as we speak. In Europe, registrations continue to pace towards 290,000 heavy-duty market in 2025. That is a forecast that is unchanged in relation to last time. And we expect the European market to move slightly up to 295,000 level for '26.
In Brazil, the market is continuing to correct. We have kept our '25 forecast unchanged at 85,000 units on the back of sales from dealer inventories, while production levels are gradually taken down. But we see the current cooling off will continue into new year. And for now, at least, we estimate the Brazilian market to be at 75,000 heavy-duty trucks in 2026, but also here with the recent development, of course, contains quite a high level of uncertainty.
In India, we keep our forecast of 360,000 for this year, and we believe that the recent momentum also in the Indian market will continue through '26 and thereby forecast a slight increase to 380,000 for next year.
And in China, the market has increased mainly on the back of the trading incentive program in the market for all propulsion technologies, diesel, natural gas and battery electric vehicles. Forecast for '25 has been lifted to 760,000 medium and heavy-duty trucks for this year, and we now expect the market to remain flat in relation to '25 or '26.
Book-to-bill amounted to 80% in the quarter globally and a good balance of 98% 12 months rolling. For the quarter, we had two regions that significantly impacted overall order intake and thereby the book-to-bill, and that was Asia at a book-to-bill level of 48% and South America at a book-to-bill level of 33%. And for certain countries in these two regions, we have been very restrictive with order slotting into us, given that we want to keep a healthy balance between order book, inventory levels and production output since we are working with also dealers and market or distributors in many of these markets with block orders. And it is important in this time now to keep the pipeline in trim. So have that in mind also for these two regions when you look at the overall order intake.
For Europe, the book-to-bill reached 91% with a strong production push in quarter 3 to cope with the good order levels in previous quarters. European demand is currently stable with 2025 largely sold out, and for 12-month rolling, the European book-to-bill is at 105%.
And in North America, the book-to-bill was in balance on the back of capacity adjustments made during spring and summer. Further adjustments might be needed given the high uncertainty. However, with our strong U.S. manufacturing footprint for the North American markets, adjustment can also be on the positive side, but it's too early to say right now. So flexibility is the key word now as we move forward, not at least in North America.
On market shares, Volvo and Renault continued to deliver strong market shares in Europe year-to-date September with Volvo at 19.3% and Renault at 10.5%, giving a total share of almost 30%. On the battery electric side, despite that more OEMs are now delivering battery electric vehicles, Volvo and Renault combined delivered a 53% market share. In North America, Mack Trucks continued to deliver market share gains on their improved supply chain, and they are now at 7.5% year-to-date. Volvo Trucks have stabilized their changeover process that affected, of course, the market share during the beginning of the year here and reached 7.9% year-to-date August. However, Volvo is also affected by the segment mix where the on-highway segment are under pressure, as you are aware of. Nevertheless, we see that Q3 was better, and we are now around 9% in the quarter here.
And in Brazil, Volvo remains solid and market leader in Brazil, with 23.1% heavy-duty market share. Australia is transitioning from Euro 5 to Euro 6 this year. And for now, Volvo and Mack are at 21.5% combined. We have seen that other actors have been selling Euro 5 from inventory, but expect an improvement of market share when the whole market has transitioned now during the later part of the year into Euro 6.
So by that, I'll leave trucks, moving to Construction Equipment. CE also continues their global product renewal. We started last year. And in Q3, the latest hauler models were launched into the important markets in Asia, not at least then for mining. Market forecast here, of course, also here, uncertainty is elevated. But for Europe, South America and Asia, excluding China, we continue then to forecast a flat development, '25 to '24, unchanged forecast and also flat development as midpoint for '26 in relation to '25 for these three regions. For North America, we guide now for minus 5% as a midpoint for '25 versus '24. That is an improvement of 5 percentage points in relation to last forecast. And then '26 to '25, also a minus 5%. So somewhat further correction of the market also anticipated for next year.
China, plus 10% as midpoint versus '24. That is an unchanged forecast and '26, in relation to '25, flat development.
Book-to-bill. Overall, book-to-bill is in good balance or rather good balance when it comes to Volvo CE, 94% in quarter 3 and 102% 12-month rolling. And North American book-to-bill reached 80% in the quarter and 95% 12-month rolling. The North American sentiment is stabilizing somewhat on the back of healthy new equipment inventory levels as well as rental equipment rates and improvement of utilization levels. The European book-to-bill reached 90% in the quarter as the dealers are gradually stocking up their inventories based on somewhat better sentiment and especially excavators. And that gives, of course, a push in deliveries. But orders also in Europe was plus 34% in quarter 3, and the rolling 12 book-to-bill at 113% for Europe. South America, Africa, Oceania and Asia maintained a healthy balance.
Buses, positive momentum when it comes to product launches then, continues to build on the success of the electric BZR chassis platform, which they now have launched with industry-leading battery capacity over 720-kilowatt hours designed for the Coach segment. And also when it comes to the European bus strategy with partnerships, has also -- during the quarter, formed a strategic partnership with Marcopolo, one of the world's leading body builders to broaden its product portfolio and strengthen the position in the European coach market. So as I said, an important step in the execution of the European turnaround strategy with partnerships together with strong body building partners.
Book-to-bill 94% in the quarter as well as 12-month rolling. Customers are somewhat more hesitant in Mexico and in Brazil, while demand is stable in other regions.
Volvo Penta, great momentum here. Penta's -- also some product news here. Volvo Penta's autopilot takes seamless boating to a new level. And the autopilot is now also available for all Penta propulsion packages with electric steering as well. Also, when it comes to energy storage, energy segment, energy transition, Taiwan-based SEETEL New Energy has selected Volvo Penta for their energy storage solutions in Asia Pacific, and then for use cases in industrial, mining, remote medical support, roadside electromobility assistance, et cetera. For Penta, book-to-bill 88% in the quarter and 108% for 12-month rolling.
Then as a last point here, and we had a discussion where to put it because it is in segment group trucks normally, but that is Volvo Energy, that is one of our latest additions. But I wanted to connect it also here because it's also in the energy sector. Volvo Energy launched their Volvo Power Unit 2000 based then on our vehicle technology when it comes to batteries. And the PU2000 is a high-performance energy storage solutions with a battery capacity of 2,000 kilowatt hours with versatile use cases, including peak shaving, load shifting, energy cost optimization, et cetera. But what is important to remember, there are many players in this area, but we have world-class cybersecurity. And remember me saying that because you will see a lot of use cases where that will be a key driver if you are getting the deal or not because everything is getting connected, as you know. But very promising start also in this with high customer interest.
Finally, VFS, Volvo Financial Services maintained solid earnings in quarter 3 and delivered over SEK 1 billion in adjusted operating income for the third quarter. Portfolio continued to grow and was up 4%, currency adjusted, but also, of course, very important now in -- where we are in the cycle, demonstrated a solid portfolio performance, although somewhat increased delinquencies and write-offs have been visible in some markets, and business segments, but are on a normal level at this point of the cycle. And there, I have to say it's great that VFS is working so closely with the other business areas, but also, of course, with other customers. So by that, that concludes the business update. I will leave the floor to our CFO, Mats Backman, for the financial update.
Thank you, Martin. So looking into the financials then for the third quarter and starting off with the group net sales. So net sales increased by 1% on a currency-adjusted basis compared to last year. Vehicle sales dropped by 1%, mainly due to lower volumes on trucks, while service sales increased by 4% currency adjusted with contribution from all business areas. European volumes increased, which led to an increased sales by 7% currency adjusted driven mainly by trucks and construction equipment. In North America, sales decreased by 6% currency adjusted, driven entirely by trucks, while sales were higher for buses, Penta and construction equipment.
In South America, net sales decreased by 9% FX adjusted compared to last year, and this was mainly driven by trucks. In Asia, performance was positive, and the net sales increased by 5% adjusted for currency, mainly driven by trucks and construction equipment. Other regions experienced slightly increased sales, mainly driven by trucks. Overall, FX effect was negative with about SEK 7 billion due to a general appreciation of the Swedish krona against other currencies. And the main driver was the U.S. dollar depreciating 9% versus SEK, with a negative FX impact on sales of about SEK 3 billion. The Brazilian real and the euro depreciation also had a negative impact on the net sales.
If we're looking at the adjusted operating income then. Adjusted operating income for the group was SEK 11.7 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 10.6%. In the third quarter, earnings were supported by the positive development of our service business and lower R&D expenses. The financial performance in the quarter was impacted by higher material costs and some additional manufacturing cost for trucks, mainly related to lower volumes and overcapacity in North and South America. The tariff cost increased in the third quarter, and that was as expected with a net impact for the group of SEK 500 million.
In the fourth quarter, we expect the tariff net cost to reach close to SEK 1 billion. The net R&D capitalization effect in the quarter was positive at SEK 1.2 billion with a year-over-year effect of SEK 1.3 billion. Guidance on net R&D capitalization for the full year '25 is positive at approximately SEK 4 billion, with a year-over-year effect of about SEK 3 billion. FX had a negative impact of SEK 1.6 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the SEK. And given the current trend of strengthening SEK, we expect the FX for transaction exposure to be negative with about SEK 4 billion for the full year, and we don't provide any guidance on the full FX effect.
In the third quarter, cash flow amounted to negative SEK 1.7 billion. Cash flow continued to be affected by the increased level of investments and the seasonal buildup of working capital that we always see in the third quarter. Return on capital employed trend declined to 25.2% on a rolling 12-month basis. The net financial position amounted to SEK 45.4 billion, which is slightly higher than the last quarter with a positive net contribution from divested operations.
The net sales for Group Trucks decreased by 2% currency adjusted, driven by lower volumes, partly offset by positive development of our service business. The lower adjusted operating income and adjusted operating margin were mainly driven by generally lower volumes, higher material costs and some additional costs related to overcapacity in North and South America. Tariff costs continue to build in the quarter, and the currency had a negative impact of SEK 1.1 billion in the quarter.
And then over to Construction Equipment. Net sales increased by 14% adjusted for currencies and the divestment of SDLG. Adjusted operating income reached SEK 2.2 billion with an operating margin of 14.4%, which was an increase in both income and margin comparing to last year. Product mix with less SDLG and positive development of the service business were the main drivers behind the improved performance. In the quarter, tariff costs were building up and had a negative impact on the financial performance. The volume were lower versus some quarter -- versus the same quarter last year, however, completely driven by the SDLG divestment. Currency had a negative impact of about SEK 300 million in the quarter.
And then over to Buses. FX adjusted net sales increased by 4%, driven by price realization on vehicles and positive development of our service business. Buses delivered a strong adjusted operating income of SEK 755 million and 12.6% in margin, and this was despite lower volumes. The result was supported by a divestment of property, continued price realization of both vehicles and parts as well as a good cost control on operating expenses. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 159 million in the quarter. And Penta delivered another record quarter with the best third quarter ever result actually. FX adjusted net sales increased by 13% to SEK 5 billion. Adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 934 million with an operating margin of 18.6%. And this was on the back of a strong volume development for both engines and services and despite unfavorable product mix. Currency had a negative impact of about SEK 185 million in the quarter.
And then last but not least, Financial Services. Adjusted for currency, the credit portfolio increased to SEK 259 billion with a rolling 12-month return on equity at 11.3%. Portfolio performance continues to be good with delinquencies and write-offs under control. The adjusted operating income amounted to SEK 1 billion, impacted by increased credit provisions, but supported by the portfolio growth. Currency had a negative impact of SEK 79 million compared to the same quarter last year. So with that, I'm leaving for Martin to summarize.
Thank you, Mats, for that walk through. Here we have the summary slide. I will be short, so we can open up for Q&A. But of course, I would like to summarize where we started. It has been a quarter with solid earnings despite the high uncertainty that we currently are facing in many markets. If we look through -- across our business areas, good results, Penta, as Mats was into VFS, very important, of course, that we have the situation under good control together with our customers and dealers. Construction Equipment, despite also, of course, the situation that we have in North America there as well, buses, et cetera. And also trucks. It's important to remember that if you look to the effect that we see on the truck side, it is, of course, very much affected by the fact that we have a North American situation that is, of course, in flux to a big extent.
Obviously, we're talking about the tariffs, we're talking about, I mean, the push also from our suppliers, rightly so since they are also affected by different type of effects. And at the same time, we have a wait-and-see mood amongst our customers, and thereby a lower demand level. But having said that, I think in quarters like that, continue to focus on what you can affect and really work hard on that. And the pillars that we are building in North America will serve us well. And when we look across the other regions, the quality in our truck business is still on a very good and solid level.
Services is worthwhile mentioning in times like that. We have been reiterating that this will continue. And 28% now in the quarter is showing that it's getting to a material proportion, obviously, for all different business areas. And we still have headroom for more, but it's also a sign that the vehicles and equipment are utilized in the marketplace. And that is, of course, a sign for the situation moving forward.
So -- and finally, maybe a comment on the order intake. I understand it will be questions on that, rightly so. But I think it is important also in this time to say, okay, what are we guiding for when it comes to the total market and not taking when you have this type of situation, a quarter and look and try to triangulate the trend based on that. When you look at our key regions, rather expected levels, Asia, Latin America also impacted by a further correction when it comes to the order slotting, which is absolutely the right decision to take in a situation like that, so you are not ending up with balances in your working capital or more importantly, in your inventory levels.
So looking forward to the Q&A. But before that, I have also an announcement to make, and that is the following: that we have the Capital Markets Day also planned now, and that will be on June 10 next year in Sunny Eskilstuna, Sweden. It is -- it will be in conjunction with the Volvo Days. It might be so that some of you have visited the Volvo Days that is a very popular activity amongst our customers when we are showcasing the latest and the greatest, of course, for VCE. But also for some of the other business areas, not at least trucks, as we found that to be a good timing opportunity. And formal invitation, et cetera, will follow, obviously, but make a note in the calendars, you are not missing this fantastic event. So by that, Johan, I think I'll leave you to guide us through the Q&A. Thank you.
Thank you, Martin. Yes. So make a note about June 10. We look forward to that.
So we have many people on the line waiting. So we do, as always, we stick to one question. We start in the room with a couple of questions first, and we'll start with Erik.
2. Question Answer
Erik Golrang, SEB. One question is always tricky. But I'll -- the balance sheet -- just a couple of questions there. We're approaching year-end and people are trying to figure out where you will propose your dividend for this year. Is it -- for the fourth quarter here, is there any reason to assume anything different than normal seasonality in working capital, the Swecon acquisition, is that expected still to close in the fourth quarter? And any other guide as to how we should think about dividends for the year?
No. We have the normal seasonality. And -- I mean, it's difficult to say exactly when a transaction will close, but it will likely be after the fourth quarter. So looking at more of a kind of a normal seasonality and a normal fourth quarter. And as you all know, we have the bulk of the kind of the cash flow throughout the year is actually coming in the fourth quarter. So I think the kind of the dividend discussion might be a little bit kind of premature from that perspective. But maybe a couple of things to add when it comes to the balance sheet and connected with the cash as well. And just to remind you of a couple of things that we have done structurally throughout this year then.
I mean, first of all, looking at the SDLG transaction. And you saw that in the kind of the increase sequentially on the net cash. So we have some kind of proceeds coming in. But also as important is actually a reduction of trapped cash. Because if you're looking at the annual report, I think we have the -- it's about -- if you're looking at end of '24, about SEK 10 billion in trapped cash, and that's reduced with SEK 5 billion now when it comes to -- as a kind of a consequence or a good outcome of the SDLG transactions. So we have reduced trapped cash.
Secondly, also the equity increase we have at VFS, I mean, that's really a bit kind of moving around money internally, so to speak. So we have increased equity on VFS from 8% to 10%. And -- and I mean from a risk perspective, kind of taking down the risk then with higher equity. And that is also SEK 5 billion that we have kind of reallocated internally.
And then lastly, if we're looking structurally on the -- on the -- maybe more on the working capital side, and then we have had a conscious discussion or a conscious decision where we have decreased the payment days also on the payable side. And I think that is probably an effect of SEK 1 billion to SEK 2 billion or something like that. So a couple of things that has from a kind of a structural point of view, changed a little bit on the balance sheet and more importantly, on the cash situation.
As we look on closing Q4?
Difficult to say, but I would probably forecast that one to be after the end of this year.
Agnieszka from Nordea.
So just looking at your margin trajectory from here, it seems like there will be some headwinds that you will meet in the coming quarters. One is tariffs, obviously, and you indicate that the net impact will constitute almost 1 percentage point of headwind to the margin when I calculate it. So -- and then also, you expect rather flattish or even contracting markets in '26. So in that environment, would you still expect your margin to improve? Or what kind of actions are you taking to protect margins? .
Thank you, Agnieszka. I mean, obviously -- I mean, we are not guiding for that. But I think more importantly, just as we have said, if you look at, so to speak, the margin quality and try to be as clear as I could. I mean -- but when you look, for example, and I start with on the Truck segment, it is, of course, most pressured right now in North America for the reasons that I alluded to. And as we move forward, obviously, depending on how stable, so to speak, the different type of announcements will be because it's a question of stability also. And as I also said, it can move in either direction to be frank.
In one way, for example, the uncertainty regarding the emission legislations have brought less prebuy than expected. In the long run, I should -- or even in the midterm run, I should argue that, that is something good about that because we know always when we have prebuys, we will have a hangover, et cetera. But it's more the uncertainty factor that is important. So the more clarity, the more in line with, so to speak, the demand in every single point we can be because that has been a little bit of a tricky parameter during this year that it has been coming in different phases, different type of -- and we feel that I've been over quite a lot now in the United States talking to customers and other partners.
And it is clearly that people are waiting and see a little bit. And that is also the reason why we are very clear and say, okay, we are guiding now for the first time for '26 for 250, but we are also clearly saying it's an elevated risk in that guidance in relation to a normal situation. So I think when I look at the quality of our commercial excellence or how we are commercially doing, how we are doing when it comes to our operations. And when I look at the key regions, take Latin America, for example, even if we have a drop in volume, we are following through in a good way, et cetera. So we have the ability internally. But when the external factors are a little bit too many moving, you are lagging a bit. But otherwise, I should not -- I don't feel, so to speak, any type of uncertainty about our own capability to manage it once we know what parameters that will be in place for maybe a little bit more than 1 or 2 weeks.
We turn to the telephone line and Akshat from JPMorgan.
One question on North America. A couple of parts to that, please. The first is Section 232, if you could just share some insights into your ongoing discussions with the U.S. administration as we wait for an update in the next 2 weeks. I think that would be very helpful. And the second 1 is if you could just touch upon your overall investments in Mexico and what could that mean for the business going forward?
Thank you for that. 232, I think it's fair to say that -- let's see. So we are, of course, preparing for the two scenarios there. I mean, depending on if it will be implemented, I mean it has been now announced in some channels that it would be from 1st November, we have a government lockdown, et cetera. So let's see what will happen here. We are well prepared for either/or scenario basically. Then if that is coming into play, it's well known that we have a 100% U.S. footprint for our North American trucks. But having said that, we are also prepared for other scenarios.
Then when it comes to Mexico, we have a structural undercapacity in North America for normal markets and also for upmarkets. We cannot live with that. So to add that capacity for our North and South American markets for Volvo, Mack is necessary. And obviously, we can balance that capacity for markets depending on how different type of trade deals will look like. So we continue to invest and anticipate to have a starting point of around 10,000 units and then with the ability to move north when that is needed.
Hampus, Handelsbanken.
One question from me. Could you maybe talk about your thinking on EPA 2027. Some of your competitors are looking to roll out equipment, maybe not tuned for EPA 2027 and not including the guarantee. And if that's the case, have you had clients already testing this equipment? And are you expecting to roll out the 2027?
But again, I think, obviously, the further it gets without exact clarity around this, I mean, the more you need to prepare, obviously, for -- that it will be put in place because if you are not prepared, we are prepared for that. So we have our engine range in good order for the current, of course, emissions, but also for the coming. Of course, we have been testing it with the customers. We have had a field test, and that will continue to roll because I'm reading it will happen sooner or later, basically or moving in that direction when it comes to this type of close by emission legislations. So then it's more a time phasing.
Then let's see. And I will not exactly disclose how we are thinking about, I mean, if that will be postponed. Obviously, there is an interest both from less -- there's always less complexity, the lower you get technology-wise and also coming with certain costs, et cetera. So we will fine-tune depending on how it will look like, but we are in good shape for that. But we are trying to have a conversation to say, tell us something. So we get clarity.
We turn to Klas Bergelind, Citigroup.
Klas at Citi. So first, I just want to come back to the trucks margin. Yes, the tariff impact will increase from here, but earnings are also benefiting from capitalized R&D, which is a tough comp into '26 as you now have passed the launch phase of the new trucks, and the way you're guiding for volumes don't suggest much growth. So will you start to take out more cost? Will you announce restructuring to get the margin higher? Because if volumes don't come back, the outlook for the truck margin, as I see it in the next couple of quarters, look quite weak.
And then very quickly on the European outlook, quite a big slowdown here looking at orders. Just trying to understand what happened here through the quarter, particularly in September, if there was any incremental weakness beyond normal seasonality?
Yes. So number one there on the truck margin, as I said, I mean, the name of the game here, Klas, is obviously, to get the stability in North America, regardless of the volumes. That is impacting now, and it's weighing heavily on the truck margin. That is clear for us, and exactly as Mats said also, when you look at the different parameters here. And of course, when we are getting, I mean, better line of sight there, and we have gradually got that also, and we have had our changeover, et cetera. That is the key area because if we look for the truck margins in other regions, it looks as expected, and it looks good. So -- but having said that, depending on the volume development.
Now we are guiding for Europe, coming to your 1.5 then or the follow-up comment there. We are guiding for 295,000 on the back of what we see in our order board and what we see in activity level also including quarter 3. So if we say 290,000 and 295,000, then that is what we are guiding for. And we have no ambitions to lose out on market share, if I put like that. So I think by that you can triangulate what our belief is.
Maybe one comment on the tariff. First of all, when it comes to cost, we're always addressing the cost. And I mean looking at the kind of the volumes and the adjusting, I would say quite...
That is visible.
Yes, it is. So that's -- I mean that is addressed continuously. But maybe a clarification when it comes to tariffs and the kind of being a little bit more kind of granular, but we have also -- it's also in the report. If you're looking at the SEK 500 million, I mean, we are clear that more than 50% of the majority of the tariffs are actually related to construction equipment and not trucks then. And we have the net impact we see now in the third quarter, the SEK 500 million. There, we also have a kind of one component coming from. If we're looking at mitigations of gross impact from tariffs, we have two mitigating items, so to speak. I mean, first of all, price mitigation, but secondly, also the kind of the accounting when the tariffs are flowing through the inventories and inventory valuations, we are helped by that in the third quarter.
Looking into the fourth quarter, the only kind of mitigation when it comes to tariff will be on price then. So meaning that the SEK 1 billion then the net impact, that's with price mitigation. And again, the majority of the tariffs related to construction equipment. And then, I mean, this is then based on the information we have right now, and it is changing, as you know, kind of constantly then. But if we would have a kind of a Section 232 in place, that might be kind of giving further opportunities when it comes to price mitigation also on the truck side, on the tariff side. And so I think that is also worthwhile to remember when you're looking at the sequential development going forward.
Bjorn from Danske Bank.
Yes. One question, '25 quite messy, and it's not always about the volumes, et cetera. But -- can we get some color on -- if you can quantify how much of a headwind this volatility has been, especially then in North America?
Yes. I mean I don't know if we can -- will or can quantify. But as I said, I think if you look to, so to speak, where we are in the cycle and our expectations on our improved resilience to be frank, I mean I think we have been working very clearly and diligently with that. I mean, service, better volume flexibility, better ability to actually mitigate different parts of the cycle. I should argue that at this very point in time, of course, what is weighing very heavily for us is the North America turmoil and the ability to be at the curve. So even if I think we started quite early with our adjustments in spring and summer, mainly then for Volvo Trucks and also in the midst of the changeover, we have been a little bit behind the curve because we didn't see it come with that magnitude and maybe also the wait-and-see mood depending on some of the unclarity.
So I have to say that when I look at the year, because we have had corrections in Europe. We have had -- and that is coming now also gradually corrections in Latin America. But that is, so to speak, the more the normal pattern of correction of the cycle that we are following with margin quality as expected. It is more the North American case that is weighing heavily for us. I don't know if you would like to add something.
No, I think most important is that we are taking down the underabsorption sequentially now. I mean with activities we initiated in the second quarter, we saw impact in the third quarter, but still some kind of underabsorption impacts in South America and North America, but it's -- I mean, gradually getting better with the activities we have now. So we are addressing that kind of overcapacity.
And then you all know, of course, with the North American market, it is like that since we do not have any captive distribution in North America, you are even more, so to speak, dependent on being time phased correctly when market is going both up and down because, so to speak, the volume leverage on the new equipment, both up and down, if I put like that is relatively higher than in other markets. So when you have turmoil from uncertainty in North America, it's a little bit more burdensome temporarily. But I think it's also important in a situation that we are in now, as I said also in the introduction to take a step back and say, okay, will logistics be needed? Will transport be needed? Will infrastructure be needed in North America? Are we rather bullish about what is happening there when it comes to digital energy build-out, et cetera?
Stability will come back, have we built the pillars? So we are not coming too much into here. And now I think when we look at the period, we know what it is. We know how to work with it short term, and more importantly, we have built a very strong, so to speak, platform for the future in North America. I think it is also important to have in mind when it is quite a lot of moving parameters short term.
We turn to the telephone line. Daniela Costa from Goldman Sachs.
I have a question actually about Penta. You mentioned data centers in the report as part of sort of your strong result. Can you help us size the business and the growth of data centers within Penta right now? And what is the opportunity set going forward from you from this?
No, I mean, we don't kind of guide and give that kind of granularity into Penta. I mean it is a very, very important growth driver within Penta. But we are not that kind of granular when it comes to the different business lines though.
What I think is -- what I think about Penta that is very exciting is that we have talked about that for quite many years now that we have been building up, I mean, the second vertical, main vertical, I should say, of industrials. But industrials, you need more and more now to separate into several industrials in Penta with growth trajectory. One, of course, being industrial all-speed, that is our deliveries into many of the industrial equipment manufacturers, obviously, in mining and in forestry and then in ports and material handling, what have you, has been growing really well. Also part of the long-term growth that we see now also in services for Penta because there in relation to some of the marine segments the machinery is used heavily and thereby, it's a good service business.
The other sector that we have been into for a long time, but it has been more on the standby side is power generation, obviously. But power generation is growing broadly for us. And that's the reason why we also include Volvo Energy because it is the traditional power generation standby opportunities, not at least now for data center build-outs, et cetera, where we are good in North America, but it's also the general situation about I mean, grid capacity, resilience, et cetera. And thereby, it's a more broad landscape of the traditional hardcore power generation that we provide through gensets, but also in a broader architecture of solutions, including battery storage, et cetera, steering, cyber capabilities, et cetera, as I alluded to, so exciting. Put it like that.
Now, Mattias. Returning to Mattias from DNB Carnegie.
So I would like to ask a question about North America with your market share ambition and also looking at the two launches of the VNL and the Mack Pioneer, which I understand are quite sort of central to reaching that ambition. How is the strategy for those two models impacted by the currently very weak market environment? Is that creating opportunities for you? Or are you still seeing the intended market share trajectory that you're looking for? I know it's still early days, but could you talk a bit about sort of how the timing with the launches coinciding with a very weak market is impacting that strategy, if at all?
No, it's a great question. And I mean, of course, it is like that on one side, you can say that it is not bad to do maybe -- or not maybe, for sure, the biggest product overhaul that we have done for 3, 4 decades in North America, in a market that is slower, that is good because when you do that, and you are not doing a full clear cut also, I was -- we were over actually last week and I was in LVO with Mack. And we are running mixed production, mixed model production, et cetera. And then when you're introducing new models, then I have to say that when you are in the cycle you are now, and knowing also that historically, we have always been losing out when the market has been coming back and being at peak, et cetera.
Now we are building out capacity as well. That is good. It's also good that we can trim, and we can -- then obviously, you don't need to be overly nervous about your volumes right now because the market is what the market is. And since these products are creating substantial customer value in terms, not at least a fuel economy that we see clearly from customers, it's about 10%. And I mean 10% is USD 5,000, USD 6,000 yearly fuel bill. It's very important that you are not pricing away the value that you have been creating with building this up. And for Mack, in particular, this is more or less like reentering into almost like a greenfield situation when it comes to the long haul is the heavy long haulage and excitement is big, but we will take it step by step with the right type of commercial quality as well because the product is great.
So I think the name of the game, don't be overly nervous because the cycle -- the cycle is what the cycle is. And it goes up and it goes down. Now it's a little bit down. It's a number of other complexities added that we have alluded to, but these two products and what is about to come around the corner is just great.
Maybe one comment on the kind of the note that we are working what we can affect or impact really. And if you're looking at the Mack and the kind of the market share, development and just looking at the quarter, the...
It is not affected by the Pioneer.
It isn't. I mean the thing is that we are working with the supplier, and we see the improvements then that we talked quite a lot about last year that is kind of giving the Mack the ability to kind of deliver on the demand then. So that's one kind of self-help in that respect that is also very important to recognize.
So on that note, and we're coming up to the hour. So please make a note about June 10. And with that, I say thank you for coming today, and we see you at Q4.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Financial data from Volvo B
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 471,534 471,534 |
6%
6%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 352,046 352,046 |
6%
6%
75%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 119,488 119,488 |
5%
5%
25%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 40,372 40,372 |
2%
2%
9%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | 20,771 20,771 |
20%
20%
4%
|
|
| EBITDA | 54,104 54,104 |
5%
5%
11%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 3,477 3,477 |
3%
3%
1%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 50,627 50,627 |
5%
5%
11%
|
|
| Net Profit | 35,841 35,841 |
6%
6%
8%
|
|
In millions SEK.
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Company Profile
Volvo AB engages in the design, manufacture, and market of commercial vehicles. It operates through the following segments: Trucks, Construction Equipment, Buses, Volvo Penta, Group Functions and Other, Industrial Operations, and Financial Services. The Trucks segment includes the production, development, and logistics for powertrain and parts. The Volvo Penta segment markets marine and industrial engines. The Group Functions and Other segment encompasses Volvo Group IT and Volvo Group Real Estate. The company was founded by Assar-Thorvald Nathanael-Gabrielsson and Erik Gustaf Larson in 1915 and is headquartered in Göteborg, Sweden.
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| Head office | Sweden |
| CEO | Mr. Lundstedt |
| Employees | 89,299 |
| Founded | 1927 |
| Website | www.volvogroup.com |


