Warehouses De Pauw Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = €5.08b | Revenue (TTM) = €754.15m
Market Cap = €5.08b | Estimated Revenue = €509.65m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = €8.77b | Revenue (TTM) = €754.15m
Enterprise Value = €8.77b | Forward Revenue = €509.65m
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
- A low figure may reflect labor-intensive operations or lower value-add.
- Especially helpful when comparing tech companies to industrial or service sectors.
Warehouses De Pauw Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
20 Analysts have issued a Warehouses De Pauw forecast:
Analyst Opinions
20 Analysts have issued a Warehouses De Pauw forecast:
Warehouses De Pauw Events
Past Events
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JUL
31
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about 2 months ago
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JUL
24
Argan SA, Warehouses De Pauw SA - M&A Call
about 2 months ago
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APR
24
Q1 2026 Earnings Call
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Warehouses De Pauw — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everybody. You see here in front of you, and again, a very happy man. It's not so long ago and only a week ago, we have presented a unique future project for us and for our sector. And first of all, I want to thank you all, all the stakeholders for the full support we get for this unique project. Everybody supports this deal, and this is very convincing for us. So thank you all for the support and with -- everyone with who we -- by who we discussed this unique project last week altogether.
But besides that, it is very well, and I'm also very happy that we can show today that in between, the operations continued even when, let's say, group management is working on a strategic project, our operations continued to work on the priorities we give them at the beginning of this year. This shows that we are really growing as a company and that we are ready for the future because we can really say they delivered as foreseen on occupancy, on new projects, on acquisitions, and we did what we had to do.
And if we look into detail on the countries, well, for example, in the Netherlands, we delivered 2 very, very nice products for [indiscernible] and showing scarcity of land, we started a new redevelopment on the same location in Wehl for Kuehne + Nagel, Kuehne + Nagel, who is already 50 years active in that region and just across the Mars factory, the biggest production of Mars in Europe.
Well, there, we started together to redevelop locally because indeed, there are no new land positions available. In Belgium, we did a cross-border development with Seafrigo and our French new client. In France, even without ARGAN, we were really growing and up to maturity with a vision of a EUR 1 billion portfolio. And those -- that growth was based on cross-border relationships, DHL, Kawneer growing further together with Seafrigo. Romania, there, we extended with existing clients, and we could also attract a new industry client like Siemens.
And above all those fantastic new value-adding projects and developments, acquisitions, we also did asset rotations for more than 100 million. That's clearly a new driver. Some of you ask why now? Well, because we are big enough to do it. We can do that without pressure on the short-term EPS. And besides concentrating on the operational priorities, we also started with the new building blocks for 2030.
We onboarded Spain and Italy. Country managers are in place and helped from the group, they are now making their [ hands] . In the beginning of the autumn, they will come to us and say, look, this is how the country looks like, this is the competition, and this is how WDP can make the difference there, so preparing for '27. And Germany, Germany is really ready for take off now. You will see soon. And above that, adding and onboarding the new countries, we also could realize a new land bank in core Western Europe for 500,000 square meters for EUR 100 million. And it is still growing.
So future development potential everywhere in core Western Europe. And all of this, within our EUR 500 million envelope per year. So we can manage it all within our plan and extend 2030 projects. And at the demand level, well, there, we can really say that it normalized. Situation normalized, but yes, still [ accept ] the more cyclical element, the macroeconomical stock buildup that we all waited for in the beginning of the year, but that is postponed due to the war in the Middle East.
And indeed -- but besides that, we see really different activities. For example, in North of France, Libercourt, there was a building emptied by an FMCG client. Well, but another new 3PL came to us and said, look, I only use part of the site, but I see different tenders, I see possibilities and give me the chance to fill it up by the end of the year. And in the meantime, half of the building is relet and he is looking for new tenders and new clients.
New cross docks, meaning that e-commerce is further growing. We see our clients looking for cross docks. SMEs are active. So we really can say now that our clients accepted volatility as the new normal, and they all make strategic decisions again. But yes, and we all have to wait for an economic recovery to have, let's say, our normal, most easy, simple business, but we always say the best has yet to come.
So all in all, the figures, they are what they need to be convincing [ gray ] all the news you got until the beginning of July and last week. So yes, we are happy with the fact that we could realize a unique step forward on our European platform and that the operations continued so that we can really grow further altogether in the different countries up to the EUR 20 billion platform. Then it's now time for Q&A and your questions.
Good morning, everyone. So we're open for the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] And the first question is coming from Wim from KBC Securities.
2. Question Answer
My question is really on the impact of the deal and maybe as we are building our models for, let's say, the next 2, 3 years on '27. And I also asked this question on the previous call where you answered, okay, the '27 EPS outlook of EUR 1.70, which was part of the plan '27 will have a minimal impact.
Now what I'm struggling with a little bit is how will you account for, let's say, the costs of the integration? And mainly we are wondering, according to IFRS rules, an all share deal, which is after the EUR 11 is typically expensed in IFRS. Just want to know if that's correct or whether you will capitalize those costs.
Yes, we will -- you will -- indeed, it's a business combination and then -- but it will remain the same because if you capitalize then in the -- on a simple portfolio deal, then it will also be charged in the end through the portfolio results. And indeed, those expenses on the transaction costs will be expensed via P&L, but you can filter them out based on the rules of the EPRA earnings.
Okay. Okay. So we're trying to figure out, as you said in the past, plan '27 will be a 6% CAGR. So we're starting from EUR 160 million for this year. Can you give any quantitative impact on -- if you say '28 will have 3% additional growth, can we then just very easily say then next year will be a 3% growth rather than a 6%? Does that make sense?
I think the basis is what we say is that you still have the guidance of our former plan before it was extended and that's the EUR 1.70. We say we do the deal somewhere in '27. And then after the first full year of operation in '28, it will be 3% EPS accretive. Why do we need that time? Because we do not know exactly when it will close the deal. We also need some time to capture the synergies. It takes some time.
And then when we have -- and we are confident in that we can capture that EUR 10 million synergies and that -- by the end of next year so that we can go into '28 with the deal mechanics and with the synergies of EUR 10 million and arriving at the 3% EPS accretion based on top of our stand-alone business plan.
But don't calculate already extra earnings per share for '27. It is not a big integration, but it needs time and we need to be able to integrate the teams and the financial integration. So for us, it's about '28. And in '27, we have to work on the deal.
Just a small follow-up, if I may. Just on the timing, if I get it right, the EUR 11 coupon will be paid after the approval of both Boards, but then before the completion. But then once that date is fixed, you will have -- I think there's a relationship to the EUR 250 million portfolio sale of the old ARGAN portfolio. Is there any explanation you can give how you're going to kind of bridge that? Is there additional financing needed? Because obviously, you cannot sell the EUR 250 million at the same time. Any comments that you could give on how you can sort it?
ARGAN has the resources to distribute the exceptional dividend, and it will come from their resources prior to closing. And in the end, yes, we will then take that over in the combined group. But there is no issue whatsoever in terms of resources, liquidity, et cetera. They have sufficient liquidity. We have sufficient liquidity.
So we are -- and together, we are even stronger and we are also reinforcing our own resources. And the EUR 250 million has nothing to do -- disposals have nothing to do with liquidity or needing the resources. No, it's just because we want to do a capital structure neutral deal where we say, okay, we do this transaction.
Mechanically, it increases a bit the leverage, but we want it to come down again with this around plus 1% LTV and plus 0.3% in net debt to EBITDA, which is broadly neutral. And therefore, we say we will give ourselves the time to then dispose from the group. We will not start selling ARGAN assets all of a sudden from the group, EUR 250 million disposals to be executed by the end of next year.
And to be clear, it will not be, let's say, almost forced sales out of the ARGAN portfolio before the closing. No, it will be until the end of '27 out of the total portfolio. Also, we give ourselves, let's say, as from now, 1.5 years to realize it in the total portfolio. So it's about 2% on the total portfolio by the end of '27. So even after the distribution of that exceptional dividend.
Francesca, you are next.
I have two. The first one is related to the write-off that I see a little bit in France, in Germany, and in Luxembourg. Can you elaborate a little bit on this? And it is fair to expect that, I mean, H2 will be more or less flattish? And also, can you talk about what you experienced in Romania lately because yesterday, another company posted some write-off, talking about more -- and higher competition. That's the first question. The second question is...
One by one, Francesca.
You go ahead.
Yes. On the slight negative portfolio results, which was almost flattish, but in France, it was related to the building that became partially empty, which Joost referred to, and we expect that to recover that slight valuation decrease as we further lease up the building. In Luxembourg, it was also slightly negative in Germany because of shortening -- simply the shortening of leases was quite limited overall.
And indeed, our expectation is for flattish portfolio results indeed. And then for Romania, we have on there, we have the discussion with the valuators and with our teams over there in June, July, and we actually concluded that the valuations in our Romania portfolio are quite robust on all their components as well in ERV and in yields.
And for example, on ERV, we haven't seen a massive increase in our ERVs in the Romanian portfolio. They gradually increased over time. And let's say, we are -- we don't give incentives, so the rent is what you see is the cash rent. So there is no differential between the facial rent of a contract and the economic rent. And you can also see that confirmed by our EPRA net initial yield, which is the same as the top-up net initial yields. So there, we feel comfortable. And in Romania, we haven't seen a big change in competition. It's like in any other markets.
I think we can say that Romania is a stable country with stable rents, stable valuation and, let's say, a normal, stable competition. And on the other hand, if there would be more competition to come, that would be a good message and good news, okay? We can live with it.
We can live with more competition like we have here in Western Europe and more competition means that there is more activity, that there is more liquidity and that should give them also, let's say, better valuations. But for the moment, there is no more competition, but we see some parties looking to Romania. But for the moment, there is not more competition than, let's say, 6 months ago. So for us, stable market, good projects, and nothing changed.
Yes, and supported also by a very good land position with the necessary infrastructure so that we can really have a good offering towards prospective clients for development projects on which we focus over there.
And then the second question is on the demand. I mean, I think that your message is very positive and very clear as well. But just looking at the lettings that you have done so far, how much is small tenants, mid, small unit and how much is bigger tenants, big boxes? Can you give a sense?
There are -- it's a little bit, let's say, it's also depending on the region, Francesca. For example, in Belgium, there are almost no big boxes available. There was somebody looking for a bigger -- but he could not found it. So he is now looking for, let's say, eventually 2 or 3 places. In other countries, there are some. So it's depending on, I would say, the regions. But yes, we see them, but sometimes they are also not available directly. So there are no big boxes available in Belgium, in France from there. There is, let's say, a bigger stock of big boxes. So there, you have them, but their demand is also faster, bigger. So...
But I will also add, yes, last year, we said it was predominantly coming from the smaller units up to 10,000 square meter. And now as from this year, we can really say it's more balanced again. And there are also, again, more tenders going on for bigger services.
Yes, that's right.
[indiscernible], you are next.
I got 2 quick questions, if I may. Could you indicate what was the lease renewal rate in the letting activities in the first half? And what you expect for the remaining leases expiring for the second half? And second question, the increase in property charges in the second -- in the first half, is the increase by 11% a function of the larger portfolio size or were there any specific reasons in some countries?
On the lease renewal rate there, we look at it for the full year and for the full year, we expect it to be around 90% normalized, roughly around 90%, what we expect for the full year. And in the increase in property charges, nothing very specific, a bit seasonal. And let's say, all the property charges and the G&A expenses you see are in tune with our full year budget and with also our view that we can maintain the 90% minimum operating margin, EBITDA margin.
Pierre-Emmanuel, you are up next.
Actually, I have 2 follow-up questions. The first one is on the ARGAN integration. I understand that you want to exercise one option on the land that they have close to Lyon in France. Just trying to understand, do you intend to capitalize interest on the acquired land bank, especially on this one, so the Lyon land plot? And is it part of the financial synergies of EUR 10 million that you expect?
No, because it hasn't been bought yet. It's -- that's a good thing in -- they have limited land in their balance sheet for -- mainly for extensions, and that's limited. And there, for these assets -- for this project, which you are referring to, it's an optional land. But obviously, if we purchase that land and start to work on a project, then obviously, we will capitalize the interest on that. And no, it's not in the synergies.
But only we will capitalize like we do it in our...
We keep our policy, [indiscernible] policy.
And what could be the amount of this capitalized interest?
That's simply a function of the volume of land you buy in the future. It's like our own portfolio as well. When we buy land, we do a project, we start capitalizing interest on it, the introduction of the CapEx.
And for the rest of the 750,000 square meters, are you intending to capitalize interest for the rest where there is no land option but already owned by ARGAN?
If we start to work on it, yes. But that's very limited. It's a very limited amount. It's not making the difference, it's only perhaps EUR 1 million...
The second one is on the 2027 expiries. So just to have a bit of color here. So approximately 10% of your portfolio is due to renewal in 2027. Have you already received any termination notices from the tenants so far?
No, not specific.
Not specifically, no.
And that only typically -- not -- we don't have any specific indications. And now, let's say, in the second half, that work will start for '27.
'27 always starts just -- ask from September. It's never before. Most of them are, let's say, between 6 and 9 months in advance and '27 is really starting as of September, not earlier.
Okay. That's clear. So just to understand on 2027, our best case is to have a vacancy that will remain below 3%, right?
Sorry, Pierre-Emmanuel, can you repeat the question? We have more technical...
Yes. So just to build our business plan for 2027, we are basically basing our estimates with a vacancy that will remain below 3% or...
Yes. That's what we also guided for, that from now in a normalized market, we should also be able to generate a normalized occupancy rate between 97% and 98%. So less than 3% vacancy, indeed.
[indiscernible] you are up next.
I'm sorry, I had to join a bit later, so I'm not so sure the question was already asked, but what about ERV trajectory in your portfolio so far this year? Is it still flat?
Yes, it was flat year-to-date, and we expect it to be flat during the remainder of the year. And then as from next year, start to be again inflationary and then in the mid- to long-term inflation plus as from -- because of the scarcity element. The outlook is fundamentally good because the construction starts are much lower, we just need that -- also that stockpiling again and that cyclical element to kickstart again, and then there will be a pressure -- upward pressure.
You just said that the construction costs are going down?
No, no, no. No, there are indeed some upward pressure on construction, upward pressure on the components on the building materials. But today, the overall building cost for the new build developments is stable. Why? As opposed to a few years ago when we came out of COVID, then there was really also a very strong demand. But now the order books of the construction companies are very low.
And so they want to keep their machine ongoing and they absorb the cost increase of the materials in their margins for the time being. Obviously, it's also linked to the wider situation and duration of the situation geopolitically. That -- we don't have a crystal ball, of course, but if it would increase, it would also be immediately go hand-in-hand with rising ERV because we would charge it through to the tenants.
And maybe just a general question because if I look at the evolution of the portfolio value since 2025, actually, the portfolio has been evolving below inflationary trend and could be the case again in H2, I assume, on the basis of your comment on ERV. So at which time do you protect your values actually? And the investment case, I mean, it's still struggling in real estate, normally you should be hedged against inflationary trend. But if I look over the last 2 years, portfolio has not evolved in line. So it's a bit tricky, right? How do you read that? And what's your view on that?
I think we can definitely say that our cash flows are inflation protected. We have the inflation-linked leases. We have -- we are below -- well below ERVs. Yes, ERVs are today flat, but I think that's also logical, given the wider economic situation, but there is also a scarcity element building up. So we are confident in that our cash flows will be inflationary. But obviously, we don't have a crystal ball about where interest rates are going. That's the...
And I think, yes, I can say real estate is following inflation, but not linearly, not every quarter. That's taking sometimes time. And the first thing is that your cash flows needs to follow, and that they do. And we can capture inflation. Even after, let's say, we captured already 15%, 20% in the last years, we still are below ERV, and we can -- there will be higher inflation in the short term, while we will be able to capture it.
Paul, you're up next, from Barclays.
Sorry about that, and apologies if the questions have been asked. Been busy morning. Just a quick one, a couple on actually the ARGAN situation, apologies if you can't answer. But just wondered what rental growth or rent are you assuming -- gross rent are you assuming in your modeling and forecasting for 2027 for ARGAN? Just to assist in our own modeling, that will be great.
And then the second question, obviously, you're acquiring ARGAN, which is a more levered business post their sort of special payment. And that obviously will have an increasing effect on your own leverage. I just wondered what your targets are in terms of moving that leverage down and whether working on the ARGAN situation precludes you from doing any other transactions or whether you still remain very active in the market looking at other things?
So what we took for ARGAN is a relatively flat occupancy rate for minimum -- around 99% plus the indexation of the rents. So not yet reversionary even though there is in the next couple of years, some reversionary and then in the longer term, also on the Carrefour portfolio. So that's first on the rents for '27.
And then, yes, we are cognizant that due to this exceptional dividend, the ARGAN leverage will be higher and that it will have some effect on the consolidated leverage of the group, but that's exactly why we said we will also execute EUR 250 million of disposals so that the impact is actually quite minimal with only 1% impact on LTV and 0.3x on the debt to EBITDA. And on the debt to EBITDA, then be still one of the strongest in the sector.
And we will continue to operate within our EUR 500 million envelope, of course, which we can do each year on a stand-alone basis. Do note that each year, we already have EUR 300 million of retained earnings scrip dividends and contributions in kind. And yes, we do not see ourselves as limited in any case if there would be an acceleration whatsoever.
But let's say, we see good opportunities to continue to replenish our pipeline, which is well spread in time and after which we each time build new layers within that EUR 500 million envelope and our leverage targets have not changed. They say the same. We maintain our policies and also our credit ratings have just been affirmed by both rating agencies, which is also a good sign.
And just to confirm, it doesn't -- the deal doesn't preclude you from doing any other equity funded transactions or doing accelerated book builds on your own stock. So just because you're issuing shares for ARGAN, there's nothing in that deal that precludes you doing other things sooner. Is that correct?
Yes. But we will obviously now focus on executing the transaction and continuously replenishing our pipeline for which there is room enough because we have also a lot of incoming cash flow in the second half of the year. Next year, we have again the EUR 500 million envelope. And so today, we can see good opportunities of continuously replenishing that pipeline within that EUR 500 million envelope.
And we will first try to, let's say, close and integrate it as soon as possible. This is now the first priority, of course. And then, let's say, we are ready for the future.
[Operator Instructions] In the meantime, we have a written question from Marios from Bernstein, and he's asking the following. So it sounds as though Germany is next on the cards for WDP. What is driving this decision? And should we expect an acquisition of existing assets or portfolio? Or will this be development-led growth?
Well, of course, what is driving this decision? The decision is made, let's say, 2, 3 years ago. And then we said we want to expand in France and Germany. In France, markets were open, and we could do what we wanted to do. And of course, we got now with ARGAN even that unique call, what we -- which was, of course, not foreseen. But besides that, we started looking into Germany.
Therefore, in the beginning of the year, we hired a new full-time country manager. Well, today, we have a team of 4 people. And then you see indeed that activity is coming. I would say the combination of having the team in place and also the market in Germany, that Germany, let's say, starts to accept the reality because before, it was indeed they stayed on keeping that the market in Germany should be better than anywhere else and should stay below 5%.
But with the sector, with the cost of capital between 5% and 6%, it's not possible, of course. And so now step by step, they accept the new reality. And we are -- let's say, we will grow in Germany like we do everywhere. And so that can be an acquisition, a small development, a co-development. So -- but with the team, we feel comfortable that we will be ready to take the first steps soon.
And then we have a final question from [ Kat ] and the first on Germany has already been addressed. And then just as a follow-up, geographic expansion with France at center to bridge into Spain and Italy is a very logic move. What about Northern Europe?
Well, okay, [ Kat ] of course, the duty of you to look forward, but we have to concentrate now on the operations. I think France is a unique project. This will take time. And let's say, then with the Benelux French platform, and we will concentrate on Germany, Spain and Italy. That's the logic. That's now the heart of Europe. That's what we need to do for our clients. That is what our clients are asking.
And in the meantime, for our clients, we can already give solutions in Northern Europe. So for our clients, we today can offer solutions from Helsinki to Madrid and Rome. And that's it. And there we have to concentrate this on. So that is the focus now, integrating France and then as from those platforms focusing on Germany, Spain and Italy.
And then we have one question. There are a few comments on strong leasing activity of WDP year-to-date. Maybe you already addressed a lot of it. Can you just give some color on any difference in demand from sectors per country?
Yes, that's what I explained. I think we -- let's say, it was very broad. It is -- you see mostly strategic decisions in, let's say, every sector. And for example, food retail was very active. Pharmaceuticals were very active. It is indeed the cyclical stock up build -- stock buildup that you don't have. And for example, let's say, Unilever did not decide to produce more iced tea because they thought they would sell more iced tea this summer than last year.
That easy, cyclical stock buildup is not there. So -- and yes, the big square meter users are partially -- for a big part, FMCG, so they are still less active. But for the rest, it's really well spread from cross docks, SMEs and all other companies who are indeed looking through the cycle, through volatility and saying, look, we have to build out further our logistical infrastructure effort that for a lot of companies and more and more companies, the logistics, the supply chain is critical for their companies. And so that is what they are building with or without volatility.
Then we have Thomas on the line from Deutsche Bank.
Two questions from my side. The first one is on the ARGAN deal. I mean you have quantified the expected cost synergies. Maybe you could share your thoughts on revenue synergies also regarding the expected time frame maybe for realization. And what is a fair amount actually of transaction cost to assume for the deal?
On transaction costs, we estimate it to be around EUR 25 million. And then on the revenue synergies, you would like to comment? I think here, it will be relatively fast because it will -- from the moment we integrate, we also intend to integrate them into our platform. And -- but that's what we've seen with the other teams as well, the new team in Germany, France, Spain, Italy. There is really a lot of cross-selling we can do among clients, so it will be relatively fast.
Yes. And like I said this week to all the investors, yes, there is the EUR 10 million synergies, but this deal is not about synergies. It's about doing faster, more together because of, let's say, today, ARGAN has 2 limitations and the desire of the Le Lan family to stay in control, so -- which made that there was only a limited availability for acquisitions and for growth, EUR 150 million per year, and they were limited to France.
And so as from the moment -- but let's say, that will be '28 because '27 will be the year of integration. As from '28, there will be no limitation due to that desire of control, and they will also be able to do deals with their clients outside of France. So it is really a deal about doing faster, more, together.
Then one question actually on the French portfolio. You say the revaluation was negative on a single asset vacancy. Maybe you can provide some color on this.
The asset that we talked about, it's a big FMCG site. It was vacated by the tenant and then already partially relet for the short term with then this client also asking to give them some time for taking up more space because he has some several tenders. So it's, yes, a big asset, a short-term dip due to short-term occupancy impact, which we expect to recover.
But for me, the most important element in that was that, let's say, the existing client who had only a limited part of the total site that he says, this is an opportunity for me. There are a lot of tenders. And now I have, let's say, I can consolidate on one site. And based on the opportunity of high clients, I have space to help you also for smaller, not only for the big tenders, but a lot of varied tenders that he can say, look, I have space and I can, in an efficient way, consolidate on one place with different clients. So that meant for me, yes, there is, again, activity. He is doing -- there are tenders, he can win tenders, they can bring them to our site. And let's say, with a little bit of luck for both, the site is fully occupied again by year-end.
Thank you. This currently concludes our call. Joost, any final closing remarks?
So thank you all again for listening again to us. And so indeed, once again, thank you for your positive support for our deal. And indeed, I can really confirm what's on the slide now. We are delivering today our teams, and they are based on the priorities we give them. They do it and more autonomously than ever before because we are working at the future with a clear strategic vision. And so it was indeed a unique first half year. We are ready for the future, but first, we take some rest and we go on holiday. So thank you all, and we see you back in September.
Warehouses De Pauw — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Warehouses De Pauw — Argan SA, Warehouses De Pauw SA - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everybody. [Foreign Language]. Good morning, Europe. I think, and I'm sure it's a fantastic day, a fantastic day for Argan, a fantastic day for WDP, but also a fantastic day for the European growth real estate sector. And of course, also a fantastic day for both families behind me.
Yes, it is like Jean-Claude just mentioned, today, we realized something unique with the right partners at the right moment with the same fundamentals. And that is really important.
But before that, let's go back once to the beginning of this year, when we launched our new long-term project, BLEND&EXTEND 2030 based on a good long-term structural demand for logistics and a disciplined balance sheet, you can blend a lot and you can create value. And until now, we did it only internally. And as from now, we also do it externally. We don't blend buildings only, but we will also blend companies.
And it is indeed something totally different, but so important for our future, for our clients, for our shareholders, and for our teams.
First of all, for our clients, that they need and they ask for more Europe. Europe today is more than ever very important. We have seen it this morning again with [ Mr. Sun ]. So we need to build a Europe and our clients are asking for European partnerships in an environment with much more complex solutions and where we need to add to our warehouses, energy solutions, automated solutions.
So within a European environment within this deglobalizing world. And for them, it's important to have real European partners.
For our shareholders, for them also, it is really important, that we can create today the safe liquid play in the middle. Therefore, liquidity will enhance and will create value for the shareholders in order to be able to adapt and to get a right cost of capital.
And for our teams, of course, too, and especially today, we welcome [indiscernible]. And yes, we will blend, we will integrate Argan within the WDP network. And so we will also give to our people a more dynamic European environment to create value together with our clients.
And this all fits perfectly in 1 of the slides, we mentioned and we used in January, building a platform of tomorrow. And that is what we really do now. In January, we said we can build a platform of EUR 10 billion plus ourselves within our own capacities. And today, we can say that we can build really the platform of the future, but a EUR 20 billion platform, where there are much more possibilities to grow further and to create value.
And all of this is based on our DNA. Because today, like I said, we are branding companies, and that's something else. And in order to blend companies, you need the same DNA. And that is what we have and what we shared already so long. Yes, we are effective and efficient. Yes, we are both [ createtist ]. And yes, like today, we are sometimes a little bit contrarian, but also with respect of everybody and all the cultures in our group.
And that is the DNA we shared. And based on that, together with client-centricity, a clear focus on our clients supported in the long term by our founding families there, that is how we created both the last 25-year value and how we will continue to create value.
And then, of course, this project, this friendly merger by this, we really built a European leading platform. I think the industrial logic is absolutely clear, a pure logistics and industrial REIT who can help these clients everywhere in Western Europe. And yes, we build now scale and leadership.
Scale is important for our clients and leadership is important to our shareholders and that we are a big leader. We become a top 3 European logistics REIT and a top 10 EPRA company. So this gives us possibilities for further growth, further growth beyond our existing markets. Now we become market leaders in the Benelux, in France, and a leading position in Romania. And as from there, we can grow further and embark further with Germany, Italy, and Spain.
And so we can, within our existing 8 countries, we can grow together in a long-term course up to EUR 20 billion. And in order to do that in an efficient way, we need a right cost of capital, and we had already a perfect rating, which gives us a top 5 balance sheet in Europe with our A3 rating from Moody's and together with our EMTN program so we can attract depth in a very efficient way. And now, okay, we had already a EUR 5 billion market cap, but now we go to a top liquid company, like I said, the safe liquids play in the middle, and we grow, as from today, to EUR 7 billion market cap, which gives us extra liquidity, which also should enhance the cost of equity.
And when we can optimize our cost of debt and our cost of equity, we can optimize our cost of capital, which is crucial to be profitable. Because, like the last 25 years and the next 25 years, we want to grow, but not grow for growth only, profitable growth, so that we can continue to create value. And yes, with this model, we will create value. We will create value directly in the short term with a 10% total accounting return that we realized as from '28 and in the long term, we will be able to grow in our existing countries and in the countries around us. But that, Mick will explain in detail after this.
[Presentation]
Good morning also from my side. Let me walk you through this transaction. What we announced today is a recommended all-share cross-border merger of Argan and WDP. The exchange ratio is 3 WDP shares for 1 Argan share. Argan will also propose an exceptional dividend distribution of EUR 11 per share to its shareholders ahead of completion, which is factored into the exchange ratio.
On the basis of that exchange ratio and the exceptional distribution, the implied value for Argan shareholders is EUR 79 per Argan share, which implies a premium of 21% based on Argan's closing share price of yesterday and a premium of 28% based on the 1-month VWAP of Argan shares.
In other words, a very attractive consideration to become part of a unique group with strong ambitions. I want to be clear that this is a friendly transaction. It has the unanimous support of both boards Additionally, it has a support and the voting commitments of approximately 52% of Argan shareholders and around 19% of WDP shareholders including, of course, both founding families, with De Pauw family on our side and Le Lan family via Kerlan on Argan side as well as Predica Argan's second largest shareholder.
The key transaction documents such as terms of the merger, the merger agreement and supporting documentation have already been signed, and the completion is subject only to shareholder approvals on both AGMs, customary regulatory approvals and the opinion of a tax ruling in France. On timing, assuming all goes ahead as expected, completion is foreseen early '27 during the course of Q1. Important to stress also is that the group will retain its REIT and sales overall and the fixed stages in France.
And in terms of governance, a representative of Kerlan, Argan's founding family office is expected to join the WDP board, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. And together, we are very much looking forward to building out this fantastic platform.
Now, what's in it for you as a shareholder? We believe that this is really a compelling opportunity for an industrial project for both Argan and WDP shareholders. First of all, for Argan shareholders we share the same DNA, but now we can do it at the European scale, and we can build from a local champion inside the top 3 EU logistics REIT like Uwents explains. We are ready together to unlock 1 million square meters of GLA embedded land reserves in France, immediately benefiting from a significant uplift with 3 matches towards an E3 rating, a tenfold increase in liquidity. And next to the previously mentioned premium of 21%, an immediate 6% dividend step-up in annual dividends going forward. And all this also for the Argan shareholder with full exposure to our Blend 2030 growth ambitions.
On the other side, for the WDP shareholders, a genuinely integrated EUR 13 billion-plus EU platform, accelerated capital deployment in France, a clear pathway for further growth with an increased self-financing capacity of EUR 700 million per year, and we'll come back on that. Liquidity to further increase on a combined market cap of EUR 7 billion, and a transaction that delivers an immediate short-term 10% total accounting return.
And also reinforcing our Blend 2030 targets. In other words, a true win-win and in the context of the combined group, growth will always be paired with focus continues and relentless focus on EPS accretion and strong total returns coupled with strict capital discipline.
Now, on the next slide, next to merging the companies and the platforms, some works on the portfolio. As you can also largely see in the other slides, we believe we are combining 2 highly complementary and top quality portfolios with irreplaceable supply chain infrastructure that took decades to build out. Furthermore, we believe that through Argan's best-in-class operating model and plan base in combination with the funding strength of WDP and our European network, we can further unlock growth opportunities through activating the landbank, more cross-selling opportunities in a true European platform and also creating a link to the south to Italy and Spain. and this allows both sets of shareholders to benefit from strong future prospects of the combination.
And also important, of course, as many questions -- as we receive some questions on that. what's our starting point in terms of net initial yields, there we expect as from completion of the merger in early '27 and net initial yield of exactly 6% based on the deal enterprise value.
Now on the next slide and digging a bit deeper into the numbers here. First, in terms of EPRA EPS accretion. Here, we expect a 3% rise as from the full year of operations, so in '28, and that is based on the merger terms EUR 10 million of cost synergies, largely financial savings by applying our A3 rating and also EUR 250 million disposals across the group to maintain leverage in check.
And also for the record, this fully includes the debt reset of both companies based on the debt maturity profile at current swap curve.
Second item on EPRA NTA accretion, this increases by 7% based on a 30 June pro forma accounts. So the combination of short-term EPS and NPA accretion will immediately yield an accounting return of plus 10%. On leverage, the combination is expected to be broadly leveraged neutral with only plus 1% LTV and plus 0.3% in debt to EBITDA, and this is by consolidating both groups, factoring in the exceptional dividend, distribution by Argan of EUR 280 million and penciling in EUR 250 million disposals across the group of noncore assets.
Also note, right after the merger, we will also further strengthen our equity through the stock dividend of WDP, which will then be offered in May next year to both shareholder groups as the '26 dividends will be distributed for both shareholder groups through WDP. And that also creates a bridge to the last number on the slide, Argan shareholders will receive an immediate uplift in their annual dividend of plus 6%. That is after first receiving the exceptional dividend distribution and I would like to stress that this is really a win-win since Argan shareholders are not selling, but swapping their shares, hence also benefiting from this EPS and NAV accretion. Hence, we believe with these numbers reflected a true win-win and a strong foundation for future value creation.
Then on the next slide, in terms of our medium-term outlook. Well, this combination of Argan and WDP brings consistency and continuity as we already have a detailed and clear medium-term horizon through the BLEND&EXTEND 2030 plan, we can integrate this industrial projects into our group targets. And what we can say is that this deal reinforces the minimum EUR 2 per share target by 2030. And now with incremental opportunities to deliver through strong French platform, larger development opportunity set, and more capital markets relevance and obviously, a higher scale and firepower with now EUR 700 million per year of self-financing capacity, which is composed of roughly EUR 400 million of relatively automatic equity strengthening each year through retained earnings, scrip dividends, and our regular contributions in kind, supplemented with moderate debt, and we can confirm as well that we will continue to do so by applying our prudent financial policies, which stay in place.
So back to operations, back to the companies. We started and we are indeed WDP, let's say, focused Benelux company with an add-on in Romania. And above that, we have a European ambition and we want to grow further with our basics, our foundation is the Benelux and Romania. And then we have really that ambition to become a real European champion based on our EUR 9 billion portfolio. And if then now we can add Argan, well, then we can add the WDP of France with a EUR 4 billion-plus real estate portfolio and also a very nice pipeline.
And if we can combine those then become -- and we become really a European champion in the core of Western Europe, which 47% Benelux, 40% France, and 13% Romania. And this basis those fundamental, based on that, we can create a real European champion. And it is like in the 50s, Europe also started from the European coal and steel community, which was founded merely by the Benelux and France and [ could done ] enlarge further.
And so there, we have a fantastic basic to grow further, and we have a direct pipeline of EUR 1 billion, which is in execution and had reach EUR 700 million of annualized [ REITS ], and we have fantastic development landbank available of more than 3 million square meters that we can build on the landbank. The landbank of Argan and also the 1 we build it up again in Western Europe since the beginning of the year.
So a very good basic and is written pipeline and added with a landbank for future growth. And yes, why France? And some of you will ask why France. Well, France, because you can never be European without having France. And France is a big country, so you need to be everywhere on the logistics access like La Dorsale and Arc Atlantique. But there is so much more. If you see at the European transport network lines and the European transport corridors, then you see them everywhere in Europe, but most of them pass and across France. And France is really the link between North and South, between the Benelux and Spain and France, but also between the U.K. and Germany.
So it's really a crucial part within logistics in Europe, and people are not and our clients are not thinking nationally anymore. They are thinking from a European scale. And then we need to be able to help them everywhere. And indeed, Argan is active on all the important access on the logistics corridors in France. And of course, don't forget that in Europe, we have no big cities. We have only 2 of them London and Paris.
Well, Paris is, of course, in the middle of France and is also part of the logistics corridor. So France is really needed when you want to create European solutions for your clients. And France has always invested a lot in its infrastructure. These days, a lot of people use again, the French highways, okay? You have to pay for them, but they are good and the infrastructure is well-built out. France has always taken care of this infrastructure. And even now, up to 2030, there is a EUR-15 billion-plan and in build reindustrialization and supply chain plan that is built out in France.
So also in the near future, France will build out this infrastructure, this logistic infrastructure. And so logistically, for logistics real estate and logistics solutions for our clients, France is needed and you can't build Europe without France. And based on that, like I said, we can build out now Germany, Italy, and Spain. And don't forget, that a lot of our Romanian clients are French. So also, Romania will be able to grow further, thanks to France because a lot of French companies are active in Romania.
And like I said, instead of, let's say, 2 concentrated companies, we become a very well-spread and a very well-combined company started today and with EUR 13 billion of real estate. And yes, not only on the geographies, we -- let's say, we grow and we diversify but also the European growth of real estate world, we grow. And now we become really a European champion by, let's say, becoming the third big European logistics growth real estate company with a growth potential and already a EUR 1 billion pipeline in execution.
And yes, it's not only the geography we spread, but also on the different sectors where we are active, we stay very well-spread and also with our clients, the client base, of course, growth up to more than 500 clients. And yes, there are a little bit more French clients now, but we very welcome them because a lot of them were already clients of us in Romania.
And we spread further. And yes, we diversify, but were also strong and make our shareholder bases stronger with the 2 founding families, the family De Pauw, the family Le Lan, supported by Predica, Credit Agricole Assurances, and don't forget that we have a really nice, big overlap in our institutional shareholdership, almost 30% of you, the investors, is indeed already shareholder of both of us. So that is a very good basis for further growth of our shareholder basis.
We can continue, of course, to tell a lot about this fantastic deal where we worked very hard on, but we will stop telling ourselves, and we will go now to Q&A.
So again, every session, a little bit more people. So now we give the floor to Alexander who will coordinate the questions. And beside me, we have our friends of Argan, Eric Donnet and Francis, who we know already for many years. And so they will answer the questions about Argan and Mick and I, we will answer the questions about WDP and about the merger. Alexander, the floor is yours.
Thank you, and welcome Eric and Francis. [Operator Instructions] We already have a first question in coming from Pierre-Emmanuel from Jefferies.
2. Question Answer
Actually, I have quite decent amount of questions. I will limit myself to 2 to leave the floor to other analyst. Just coming back on the NAV accretion, so the plus 7%. I see that Argan's portfolio is currently valued at roughly 5% and it's basically in line with the prime market yield today, and there is no clear reduction on the portfolio except for the assets led to Carrefour today. So can you explain how you assess the valuation of Argan's portfolio in this context of current market in France and in a more subdued market, let's put it that way? And would this deal would have been relatively accretive if you were, let's say, more marking to the market Argan's advanced portfolio valuation?
Obviously, you also need to always to need to listen to what the market is telling you in terms of cost of capital. We're not talking about real estate only. We are talking about real estate companies. And there, it is not based on any judgment on future evolution about valuations. Have we just built something where the mechanics work for both shareholder groups and at current -- at these conditions within the merger, it creates substantial value for both shareholder groups and this EPS and NAV accretive and the starting yield is 6% net initial yield in '27 and in combination with having a strong, very well-experienced team in place with a lot of development activities.
We can activate through the funding strength of WDP as well and the cross-selling opportunity layer, we can add as well in a larger European group. And perhaps, Eric, you wanted to...
Yes. The explanation is really top of the transaction that just, you mentioned, Mick, clearly has the reason why there is a premium on the stock market price and fairly not a premium on the EPRA NTA value, where discount could appear that reflects the implied deflation that suspension make of 6% of the deal.
And I guess the impact on the LTV based on the 6% will not be the same. So it has to be taken into account in this deal in the end.
Well, my second question is on the Argan deal, just to understand the setup of the deal and the rationale behind this special dividend, why this structure has been preferred on our higher exchange ratio? Do you have, for the Le Lan family, do they have a look at period after the closing of this deal and what would be the duration, the conditions look? And is the merger agreement fully legal-binding today?
Are there circumstances under which Argan could engage with third-party.
I think first of all, on the lockup in general, we can say and we can speak on both families that indeed, there are -- both founding families for more than 25 years active in that company, let it grow, they supported it all the time than indeed asking for a 3- or 6-month lockup has no value. They are there, they were therefore to support over the last 25 years, they will support us, of course, taking into account their patrimonial values, but they will, let's say, continue to support us.
And then I would say, they brief logistics and it's everything they know.
And also, I would also add that the merger agreement is only subject to both EGM approvals for which we have from the reference shareholders on both sides, fully binding voting commitments, and then next to obtaining some customary regulatory approvals, and the confirmatory tax ruling.
On the distribution side, you mentioned the distribution of EUR 11, which will take place, so before the merger and received by Argan, and that should be done through capital return. We did that in order to optimize the balance sheet of the 2 companies.
So clearly, such part of the calculation and calibration of the balance sheet and as well [ stock mutual ] that optimize the interest of Argan own shareholders, and we did that as well to make sure that we expected a win-win situation that just Mick mentioned, and this win-win situation that we see is optimizing the EPRA and the earnings pressure a substantial benefit in the future for both shareholders, WDP and Argan, obviously
Now I think it's very important that, let's say, nobody is selling something. We are indeed now exchanging shares, exchanging shares based on, let's say, price earnings and so that we can create a new fundament, a new basis, and then grow further together and indeed based on the fundamental and the exchanges we can share the upgrades and we can share the upside together.
And I think we all know and we say a lot of times sharing is caring, and that is what we will do in the future, sharing the upside.
The next question is coming from Frederic from Kepler.
Congratulation, first on [ both team ]. Then I have a few questions, if I may. Maybe the first one, can you guide us through the history of discussion? So since when have you already started to formally engage?
About the execution, Frederic?
Yes. can you -- you can walk Frederic through the history of the transaction?
The history? History is more than 10 years drinking coffee together, learning to know to get each other, to understand each other, to really view and see that we have really the same DNA that we are speaking the same operational language that is, let's say, the real history of the deal.
And then, yes, at a certain moment, you feel that there is a top goal and come a little bit more concrete. And then at a certain moment, people ask the other to tango. And yes, you need 2 to tango. And if somebody asks you to tango, you need to do it. And it's never the good moment and it's always a good moment. And then we started detailed negotiations between the 2 teams and that realized yesterday evening in a fantastic, unique deal.
Understood. I understand that Argan is more opportunity. Maybe a question on other financing because you mentioned that EUR 10 million synergy would come only from a financing point of view. But in parallel, we know that Argan debt is mostly composed of well, secure funding, so mortgage-related type of funding, which accordingly is cheaper. So I'm not such sure to understand how you would be able to get lower funding on that basis? Can you explain?
Yes, I will start and perhaps Francis can also supplement. So the EUR 10 million synergies are composed of 1/3 operational synergies, the typical synergies you can gain in terms of listing corporate overheads, et cetera, and 1/3 is coming from some -- from optimization of the funding costs through -- mainly through the credit spreads and also some hedging optimization and do not underestimate that obviously, we have because of our larger balance sheet and more diversification, we have a credit rating that is higher we calculated that, and we believe that we can capture that in the short term.
And it's not only about the mortgage that Argan has also some other debt in place as well. Perhaps you can also -- Francis?
this Mickael is right. We can benefit from WDP cost of debt. In our business plan, we have some refinancing of debt to make in 1 or 2 years. And for these refinancement. we could benefit from the notation of WDP, which is 2 or 3 notch above our notations.
And to conflate as well, that you mentioned it Mick, for Argan's shareholders. Clearly, what's at stake is clearly the access to European platform and access to capital as well as a better cost
Mick mentioned it, we are having a credit rating with SAP of BBB minus as far as Argan is concerned, and the credit rating of WDP at this moment is obviously better and we will, with the combined group, benefit from this greater and better credit rating.
I understand, technically the mid- to long-term benefit, of course, but I'm just telling to see short-term how the marginal cost of debt could be even lower than the future funding. But okay, any way it is [ okay ]. The next question will be on...
If I may. Indeed, there will be substantial refinancing in '26 and '27, impacting the Argan EPRA earnings per share, and that's included in the EUR 6 per share assumption of EPRA EPS for Argan for next year, which is in line with the consensus.
And we can then compensate part of that impact by our credit rating in the short-term. That's how you should see it.
On the LTV side, the 1% impact that you mentioned, does it take into account the exceptional dividends and the pro forma disposal? And on the disposal like, which do you assume that this result to be done?
Yes, absolutely. Yes, this is factored in. So the pro forma balance sheet impact, which is limited to plus 1% LTV and 0.3% net debt to EBITDA factors in the exceptional dividend distributed by Argan prior to closing and also by the end of next year, disposals of around EUR 250 million at the group level in June with current valuations, yes.
And then very last question, more purview. I understand your present in France and being very vocal about the great part. But I'm just wanting to know what do you think about getting bigger exposure to our country where actually there could be more standstill or sluggish activity ahead of the upcoming national election?
Yes, there are always, let's say, macroeconomical and political short-term turbulence as possible, but that's everywhere. And I think we have also had the turbulences in Belgium, in the Netherlands, and so therefore -- and now we are a much more well-spread company. There is less focus in 1 region.
If tomorrow something happens in the Netherlands, and you can say the same. Now we are a well-spread company. And yes, we have, let's say, more or less temporarily -- like in Germany last year, temporarily political turbulences uncertainties, but we are there for the long-term. We are there. We buy and we buy because it is important for logistics, for the logistics infrastructure. We don't believe from, let's say -- and yes, of course, we like it, but we don't like from the short-term only because economy is going up a little bit in France or going down a little bit.
And yes, I think, in general, even in the Benelux, we can say that you see a lot of good activities that, let's say, the logistic world is open again, we can do, again, a lot of very nice acquisitions, developments, redevelopments and so on -- but, yes, on the other hand, we still miss 2 in Belgium, the -- let's say, the stock buildup when an economy goes up, the macroeconomic stock buildup that we miss. And yes, we make that, let's say, today, in our portfolio, and that can happen in France, too.
But I would say did better homework because they have a 100% occupancy rate and we, a little bit less. And so therefore, we look longer, we look to those logistics and industrial fundamentals. And I would say it's the same when we entered the Netherlands in 2010, then everybody said, "WDP, what are you doing now going to the Netherlands and nobody believes anymore in the Polder model. And we were the first to enter that country.
Well, today, it's 1 of the most nicest parts in our portfolio and everybody is happy with the Dutch exposure. And so indeed, even if in the short-term, there are some uncertainties. That's everywhere. Last year, it was Germany, now with France next year, the Netherlands, who knows. So -- and everybody and our clients, they look through those uncertainties volatility is a new normal and people have to live with it and our clients have accepted it and live with it.
If I may add, yes, clearly, it's a merger between 2 companies, which are already very robust. Clearly, Argan is not fragile at all. That's the leading company in each sector in France and, really, in the combined group, obviously, being the capacity to address an enlarged market to unlock landbank's capacity.
And you see the quality of the portfolio and the applicable assets owned by Argan at this stage, bring to the combined group strength in France. Obviously, with 68 million inhabitants, GDP of EUR 3 trillion, that's clearly a large economic capacity. So the strength of France, not just short term but long term for the combined group will obviously bring benefits to the entire shareholders.
And then the next question is coming from Charles from UBS.
Just 2 questions from my side. First, on looking at Argan's portfolio, I think there's no vacancy due to the type of assets and build-to-suit and average residual lease term is around 4.9 years. So would you expect the vacancy to increase towards the market average, which I think in France as of end of June per CBRE is roughly 7% over time? Or do you think that the portfolio is generally positioned in a way that should justify very low vacancy?
Actually our portfolio targets vacancy rate will not increase at all. And we are -- we have already been very tough around the occupancy rate, so in the last decade obviously, Argan has benefited from this 100% occupancy rate and that will continue. We do not intent at all to diminish that. And we have a strong client base, again the quality of the portfolio of 110 assets owned by Argan in France are rock solid.
We have strong retail consumer goods clients that's our client base in single-tenants capacity and good location. And again we stress the presence we have in France through the [indiscernible] they are famous Blue Banana in France coming from Lille to Paris, [ Alsace-Moselle ], on the Arc Atlantic from [indiscernible] that's clearly the value of this land banks and the location and on the combined perception of the group, we clearly estimated the occupancy rate at the rate of 98.7% globally. So to assure you that will be obviously begin to have strong cash flows from these combined groups.
And for example, the last -- or the only building, which became free the beginning of this year, which was liberated by Carrefour was rented and re-rented directly at the higher price. So they are doing perfect job within the group.
Just as a remainder the world's occupancy rate for Argan going the last 20 years was 97%. So it's not only words, but it's facts too.
Very interesting. My second question is on the land bank, which Joost you mentioned as a key driver during your presentation. And going through the disclosure, there's not as much detail on the location of the land bank. Is it mostly around the Île-de-France France region? Is it spread across the market? Is it mostly around the existing asset in terms of extension of proven sites or new green build area?
Let's say I will answer on our land bank here because let's say, we did not only worked on the merger in the first 6 months of '26. We also worked internally very hard and WDP is also on its own now, let's say, creating a new Western European land bank. And there, we will really create a new land bank from the north of Holland and from Zwolle, over Breda, Antwerp, Paris, Lyon, sorry, Paris and Toulouse.
So that will be our new land bank. And above that, there is indeed a big land bank, which is not only, let's say, the location is important, but also, for example, 2 of them are really near and besides a part of us in Bollène, we bought 2 years ago, a big park. Well, Argan has a land -- has land besides, so we can enlarge our WDP's existing park. So it's more than just a land bank, but it's also on adjacent locations to ours. The rest of...
On the land bank portfolio, so we mentioned as far Argan is concerned, 750,000 square meters of land banks half of it in fact, in possible extension on existing plots of land combined with existing assets rented by our clients. So extensions for half of it and new, obviously, developments on the other side. But I can remind you as well that Argan has got a strict discipline as well in the developments, in-house developments. And obviously, we want to reach the correct valuation on those portfolios.
And we want to secure obviously, leases before committed to those developments. So we have to combine unlocking land banks through access of capital, but obviously keeping an eye on the occupancy rates and no doubt that the combination of the 2 groups, we will keep and follow the same discipline, no change in the risk profile of the 2 companies.
The next question is coming from Vivien from Petercam.
Yes. Congratulations to both Argan and WDP. Two questions on my side. The first one is coming back on the EUR 250 million of disposals. So I understand you expect to sell at current valuation and -- but you're not mentioning the assumed yield. But maybe you can provide more detail on the timing and the geography considered for these disposals.
We have made an analysis of which type of assets we will sell. So we know that we have not started the process, of course, and it considers non-core assets a bit scattered across the entire group in line with current valuations in general as is published and it considers non-core assets.
And also do note that also on a stand-alone basis, as you have seen this year with the portfolio going towards EUR 10 billion that now also more active portfolio rotation a bit of arbitrage, let's say, 1%, 2% of the portfolio per year, we will also implement as a value driver as we have already executed upon this year. And also the EUR 250 million, you should see that against the EUR 13 billion platform upon closing.
And the idea is to realize it, let's say, by the end of next.
Correct.
Okay. And then maybe a bit of a different question with regard to allocation to Romania, considering the increasing size of the portfolio, do you still see limits to the allocation you want to do under the blend and extend plan? Or do you believe that with the dilution of Romania within the combined portfolio, there is room to do more since you have done quite a lot in Romania over the last 12, 18 months. So do you see room to allocate more capital to this country?
No, because it will now be diluted in the entire group. And there is Romania is predominantly developers and investor market dominated by WDP and our colleagues of CTP. And in Romania, we anticipate a sort of natural demand flow coming from the existing tenant base so that we can further activate the land into pre-let developments and that Romania will then take its fair share of the ongoing new investments.
But we will not do less in Romania in the sense that we will stop Romania. Now, we will continue like we did it in the last 15 years. And let's hope that we can help fast some French clients more in Romania and that we can continue to develop. So we will develop it further like every other country. We will treat all our children in the same way.
We have next question incoming from Suraj from Green Street. And can I ask Joost to hand over pointer please.
I got a couple of questions. First one is just -- so basically, the strategic rationale for acquiring Argan obviously rest heavily on France. France has been exhibiting signs of a relatively weaker European industrial market from an operating fundamentals point of view. So take-up is down around 25% in the first half of this year versus the 5-year prior average.
So how do you think about this as part of your underwriting? I know you touched on it from a political point of view, but some more details would be helpful, especially sort of where you think market rent growth will be versus your existing markets, Benelux, Romania, et cetera.
Well, I think indeed we really believe in France. Yes, in France, you have, for example, a little bit a higher empty -- and higher vacancy rate in new projects because that's specifically due to France and the long duration of projects, therefore, it takes you 2 years to get your building permit and your operational permit. And so you can always not ask and no tenant in advance because nobody wants to, let's say, to wait for 2 years. And that's for more, I would say, general players, but even with those limitations of a long duration of permits, which made some investors start projects at risk they can also stop.
But on the contrary, Argan proved that even within such an environment of permitting, which takes 2 years that they can pre-let it and they can do, let's say, projects tailor-made for their clients. So that's also because of the local deep knowledge. And therefore, yes, that's a general picture. But besides that, then it is the way you handle it and the way -- and they are really -- let's say, they have that French knowledge. They know how to do it, and they know how to handle it with their clients.
Maybe to add-on on Joost. Joost just mentioned the fact that obviously, there is -- and there were as well political elections in France. Remember that in last March, we enjoyed the municipalities of the city elections and the greater regions, obviously. And combined with the land scarcity and obviously, all this ecological pressure, obviously, that made the wrong path or the wrong momentum for the market efficiency and new developments.
Most probably after the presidential election taking place in April, May next year, we clearly will benefit from a growing market again, but we had this path -- this momentum, obviously, to go through. That's part of our building obviously, challenges in the coming months. We will come over it, that's part of the development program that we have clearly integrated.
But our clients are not thinking politically. They are really thinking about the business, about the growth, about the Europeanization, about, let's say, the de-globalization, the continentalization. There are they thinking of and they can live with volatility. And it's not because there is an election that nobody does something or -- and for us too, we don't go to France or another country because of an election. It's not because there was an election in Germany last year that we would not invest. We invest for 10, 20, 30 years and more. So then we have to look much further than just short-term disturbances.
And so no, then it is really about the long-term potential of a region. That's the reason why we invest in a certain region. And we believe really in the reindustrialization and let's say, the unification of Europe. Europe needs a European answer on financial markets, on the internal market. Europe will have to defend itself. And we believe that and we believe that we can help our clients in, let's say, becoming more Europe. And we prove today that we can look beyond our own borders and that we can create European solutions.
Okay. Understood. Just a quick second question, if I may. It's just on the synergies. I just want to understand a bit more detail. I know you touched on it. So the EUR 10 million synergies, you're saying around 1/3 is operational and the other 2/3 is around the funding cost, which you discussed earlier. But just to understand correctly, so that's around sort of EUR 3 million over the EUR 15 million, I think Argan has in its G&A. Is that the correct understanding? I would have expected it to be a bit higher?
But we also have to acknowledge that both the groups are already quite efficient and best-in-class, and that is really what we can realize and have a high conviction in that it can be done before the end of next year. Both on operational and financial. We detailed it -- we calculated it in great detail, and we are confident to achieve those EUR 10 million by end of next year.
And I said at the beginning, our DNA, the first thing was effectiveness. Well we are both effective. So...
Okay. Understood. And then the last one is a quick one. I just want to understand how we want to think about capital allocation. So between completing the existing pipeline, accelerating the French land bank. So I think you have -- I think you mentioned around 1 million square meters of buildable area now and entering Italy and Spain?
We will always do that in function of the opportunity set, listening to -- taking into consideration our cost of capital, the opportunities presented in those markets, focus on good quality assets, good mix between standing assets, also pre-lease developments within our respective markets, and it will be a mix within the geographies. And we have EUR 700 million firepower per annum, as explained earlier. So that's already quite an attractive number.
And we will chose the best projects within our possibilities that we have, and which is now growing from EUR 500 million to EUR 700 million a year, by which you can do already something.
Then the next question is coming from Florent from ODDO.
So actually, I would have only one question, maybe for Argan. My question will be as follows, so further to discussion with some investors. So why for Argan shareholders, so this is the best offer to be accepted given that this offer value Argan still with a discount on EPRA NTA. And so given the high quality of the portfolio and the team at Argan, so maybe we would have been able to imagine some offer maybe more closer to the NAV. So that's my question.
Clearly, Florent, the point is very clear. The Le Lan family [indiscernible] the shareholders of Argan are not selling the company. We are merging combining and teaming up together with WDP. And obviously, to combine 2 groups, you have to decide on the win-win situation.
So clearly, we have to maintain a combination of 2 successful and rock solid groups. That's part of the calibration of the transaction. And that's the way we try to achieve it through this swap of shares of 3 for 1 the GAAP distribution of EUR 11, which will be, let's say, tax neutral and part of capital return. So that's the calibration of a win-win transaction.
Indeed, it is not selling -- nobody is selling. We are joining together with a certain fundament on a certain basis and that basis is indeed driven by price earnings. But more important is and also for the Argan shareholders that also they think that together, they can grow faster in dividends and in growth on NAV further. So that the growth can be faster together and nobody is selling. We are just exchanging shares.
And the next question is coming from Marios from Bernstein.
I've got 2 questions remaining and kind of [indiscernible] in the nature. So first of all, on the debt, are there any change of control clauses we need to be factoring in when considering the combined entity?
Yes, Argan's debt is subject to change of control clauses. But do note that there is a very strong overlap in the lending partners with WDP's lenders. And so we are confident in obtaining those change of control clauses. And also do note that the group has substantial liquidity and also very solid access to the bond market as well.
And also, we have always several offers on the table in terms of additional financing and perhaps Francis, do you want to also make a comment on this change of control clauses with the Argan.
We have to discuss with other banks, but we are confident to convince them to leave their loans with new structure and of course as Mickaël said, WDP has also the liquidity to eventually reimburse some of them.
Exactly. And it's important to stress that this merger is not obviously dependent on the [indiscernible] controlled clauses, we just have the subject of the votes and the shareholders of both companies to vote in favor of the merger, but there is no condition upon the change of control banks agreements. So we'll treat that through waivers, but it's not a condition precedent to the transaction and the merger.
Okay. Very clear. And then just secondly, can I just check on the required French tax ruling details there and then if there's any risk from a free perspective as well?
No, there is no real risk behind. That's clearly a technical point to be addressed. Should I remind you that obviously, the strength of the combined group is to combine as well tax regimes within the countries in Europe. And in France, we benefit from the SIIC regime, Société d'Investissements Immobiliers Côtés. So obviously, having ultimately Argan as it's stand-alone right now as a regulated and listed company, we want to maintain this SIIC regime and to be tax neutral. That's part of the tax ruling. Obviously, we have to implement within the coming months and after the general meetings.
The next question is coming from [ Mark ] from Bank of America.
Very appealing transaction. Just wanted to ask about the governance because as you have highlighted several times, you want both companies to keep the entrepreneurial and family-led culture. So what would be the Board and management committee composition on day 1 after the transaction? And how which families and which company will be represented?
Operationally, let's say, the group structure and the group management stays the same. And like I said, we will plug in France as, let's say, as a full platform. We will Integrate the Argan platform within the WDP network. But then it will be at a local at the French level. We will, of course, combine Argan and WDP France and make one company of it and one country for us with one country manager.
But then for the rest of the group, nothing changes. And then at the Board level, there will be a representative of the Le Lan family will come into the Board like we have now 2 members of the third generation of the family De Pauw also in the Board since Tony has passed away a year ago.
And technically speaking so in France, should I remind you that we organized towards, in terms of governance Supervisory Board and Board of Directors. So obviously, at the merger and completion date [ issues ] will disappear in favor of the current governance of WDP. And we will combine the 2 teams as well in France with no overlap at all.
Should I remind you that in France currently, Argan is composed of nearly 30 people, WDP in France is composed of 6 persons full-time employees based locally in Paris. So there is clearly no overlap and that's part of the benefit of this merger, obviously, combining and joining forces and no dissynergies that's important to stress.
Absolutely, because we will need everybody because we want to grow and we have EUR 5 billion, but in a market of 80 million square meters of logistics, and we only have a 5% plus market share. So we really think and we believe that we can grow further, let's say, of course, in time that we can double to a market share of 10%. So we will need everybody to work on that growth.
And what about the representation at the Board of Director level? So you mentioned 2 representative of WDP and only one of Argan and it will be one of Predica, I guess?
No. It should be one for the Le Lan family, so there will be no representative on behalf of Crédit Agricole Assurances subsidiary, Predica, but that will be Le Lan representative.
Because also Predica becomes, let's say, within the WDP Group, a normal shareholder. And there are we have more than one shareholder, let's say, between 3% and 5%, and they become a normal big shareholders besides and that's different than the founding families. We have on one side the founding families, then we have some shareholders between, let's say, 2% and 5% Predica is one of them. And then we have the big scheme of institutional shareholders.
So we already agreed on the modification of the statutory obviously, the status of WDP to be in accordance with such obviously agreement.
The next question is now coming from Wim from KBC Securities.
Congrats from me on the growth of, I guess, over 10 years. If I may ask you 3 questions. The first one is on the EPS guidance. So if I understand it well, you say it's 3% accretive from the first year of full operation, so that is '28. Can you give an idea on the impact of '27 from a WDP point of view? On EPRA EPS?
Yes, it will be limited, and that's why because we don't know yet the timing, the speed of implementation of the synergies. So that's why we say it will be within the first year of operation, plus 3% and slightly positive in the first year.
We will work on it in '27 to realize it in '28.
Okay. And can you give just an idea of what kind of costs you would run into '27? Is that -- are we thinking about legal costs or corporate finance teams or...
Some mild one-off cost to achieve the synergies, but limited. Yes, you also have to see this in the combined group of EUR 550 million of EPRA earnings.
Okay, all right. Fine. Then moving on, we've spoken a lot about the financing opportunity, and that's also the way I see it. Argan has this nice land bank, obviously, very good network in France. Can you say that you could -- and I think I already heard that you can accelerate the land bank as Argan was kind of in an asset rotation position where you had to sell assets and then develop.
Can you give an idea of kind of the 750,000 square meters in GLA, what kind of horizon, let's say, before 2030, what kind of size you could develop or any timing on developments, if you have an idea on that?
I would say around Argan has a very great team and can do more with more financing resources and can grow double the amount, which they currently do, the current run rate can be doubled with the team.
So we currently have the in-house development team. Again, that's very important in our combined group. It's not just the team, it's clearly the answer. It will come from the market. Again, we are combining 2 very strengthful and strong groups, WDP and Argan and no issue, we will not take additional risk. We'll keep the risk profile again of the combined group.
So if you want to do development, obviously, we want to do it combining it and offering it to the market. So being pre-let and not taking additional risk. So that's part of the transaction. But to address strictly your point, we are capable of achieving EUR 200 million of investments for Argan this year, and we target EUR 150 million for next year for 2027. And we can obviously do more through access obviously and better access to capital and partial unlocking of this land banks will obviously add up on the existing acquisition and commitments we currently have in the pipeline. But let's say, we'll do it again in a very disciplined manner.
And above the possibilities in France, there will be, let's say, the European possibilities because when we spoke to the teams, I think there are possibilities to grow further with the existing land bank and with the knowledge of the clients, we can grow and that can be a basis for Spain and Italy. There was a French client of Argan, who would like to go to Spain, and he asked to Argan to go to Spain together, but Argan was not capable.
And now as from now, they will be able -- we will be able to do it. So there is more than only the growth in France. It is also the teams with their local client knowledge that can help us to do deals in other countries like last year, our Dutch team helped the Romanian team to do a fantastic development for action in Romania. That is the real value beyond local growth.
Yes. Thanks, Joost. That's actually a good bridge to my next question is because the way you also put it, there's a cross-selling opportunity into the other side of France, Italy, Spain. Can you give some examples? I can imagine Carrefour is big in Spain. Is that the way we should look at it that you can gain access to certain tenants from Argan, which you then can use to develop in Italy, Spain. Can you give some more examples of those potential clients?
Yes, your understanding is really correct. Actually, we have a strong client base at Argan. And obviously, our first tenant is Carrefour. So the combined group, the current exposure of Carrefour, that's important again to stress and mention will obviously be diluted. Currently, we are having between 25% to 26% of Carrefour exposure in terms of revenues obviously with the combined group, this exposure will be diluted downwards to 8.8%.
And obviously, with a strong client base made of Carrefour, whether it's [indiscernible] retail good or consumer goods with L'Oreal and [indiscernible], we have strong international brands and clients in France that are keen to accelerate and develop whether in Italy, Spain or even in Benelux together with us. And obviously, the in-house development teams of the 2 groups can achieve that. That's for sure, we will achieve that.
But that's too early to give concrete details on that. Wim we first have to combine to do the combination work and then we can start with the...
Okay. Sorry to be impatient. Last question is, you said France is kind of a very important piece of the puzzle in the European network. Now the other big piece in the puzzle is Germany, where you've also said this is a target area for you to grow. I think also if you want to open up roads towards Eastern Europe.
Can you give an idea is that now a bit on the back burner since you have obviously this big integration on hand or unless there's like a big distressed sale coming up that you say Germany is not the priority at the moment?
No, Germany is like we established a team. We are looking into deals. And yes, we are even very positive about Germany and about the possibilities in the second half. We did not work only on the merger. And now let's say on Spain there -- Spain and Italy, there we established the teams. They are making their plans.
And in Germany, we have the teams, and they are really working good now. And we are sure that we can come with good news about Germany, and it's not that we will do less in Germany. No, we continue what we will do and what we have planned before.
And if I can add up, clearly as far as Argan is concerned, we have strong presence in Eastern France as well Argan now seem as [indiscernible] and with brands again together like Puma, BMW and so on, there will be cross-border achievements that we can achieve between the 2 companies in a combined manner.
So Germany is obviously, again, accessible and could be strength through the presence of Argan and eastern part of France.
And then we have 2 more people in the queue. The next question is coming from [ Niraj ] from Barclays.
Just a quick one from my side. I wanted to check if this merger counters change of control for recently issued Argan bond as well. Does that mean you may need to pay that bond ahead of the 2029 maturity?
So the Argan 2026 -- so the '26 bonds will be paid prior to completion of the merger, of course, that's scheduled in '26 and the Argan '29 bonds, we do not need to ask approval, but there is due to the merger, a change of control and the bondholders have a change of control put option they could exercise. It's up to their discretion, of course, but these investors are similar to the bonds in which we invest and they will get in return exposures to a company which has a rating of 3 notches higher. And also, we have more than sufficient liquidity and access to liquidity to absorb that even at a lower spread.
And then a final question from Amal from Petercam.
Congratulations to both teams. Just a question on a topic that is dear to me on ESG. So I do think that Argan has developed a strong expertise and they have this autonome standard for new warehouses. Have you discussed perhaps the way that this, let's say, high ambition on self-sufficient warehouses could be expanded into the entire portfolio and how you -- because I do think that Argan has said in the past a very high ambition going forward when it comes to the ESG features of their warehouses. Is something you have discussed for the combined portfolio?
Of course, we will continue to use all the capacities and the capabilities of each group. And I think we both have our idea of delivering additional energy solutions to our sites and having high ESG standards, and we will learn from each other further, but that is indeed for the next step when the merger is realized, then we can start really because we were -- and don't forget, 2 quoted companies.
So we have to be careful and those things are for, let's say, post-merger and then we can really start and put all the teams together to learn from each other and to see how we can do better together.
And again, we consider Argan is a leader ahead of the market obviously ESG issues. Autonome is a brand that will be kept. Same for Argan we will operate in France through the brand Argan. So clearly, we will obviously capitalize on Autonome. You know that we are fully convinced and that was an idea of Jean-Claude Le Lan years ago, again ahead of the market. We will maintain this competitive advantage, we will stress it. And obviously, that's something we are ready to widespread within the combined group, keeping this advantage and the competitive advantage.
There is no one else currently in the queue, and we also want to be mindful of time as there are more than 400 people in the call. And there are some written questions. Most of them related to the dividend, but they were already addressed by Eric. So we'll come back to you offline by e-mail. And before handing over the word to Joost, there's just one question if we are still happy with our participation in the north, and then you can conclude the call.
Of course, we are still happy with our participation in the North because then we can still say, and I think this is important in a European view that WDP can offer solutions from Helsinki to Madrid and Rome. And that capability that is unique and that we can do and we can offer to our clients, thanks to our participation in the North.
So thank you, Alexander, and thank you, everybody, for listening and asking all your questions. But I can just ending like I ended in January, I think we are really delivering today with a vision for tomorrow. Delivering today, I think both companies worked hard in the first half year on their own operations with very good results and very good prospectives. And we see a lot of possibilities further.
And I think we have very good prospects for the second half of the year even in those volatile times. And we really work now with a vision for tomorrow. Very important today is I cannot stress it enough, we will blend companies -- we don't buy dry assets. We blend companies, companies with assets, but with clients which want to grow nationally and internationally with a combined land bank, with development knowledge, with both a good brand. So there are enormous possibilities in the short term, but also in the long term. And that is really important. And that made me, let's say, so proud as the CEO of that new group that we can really further create value together and that indeed, it's not a 1 plus 1, but 1 plus 1 is 3.
This is really, like Mick always says, a textbook example, find a beautiful project that we will realize together and by which we can continue to create value. And besides that, I just want to thank the whole team, the whole team of Argan, the whole team of WDP and all the other parties who worked day and night the last months on this unique project that we could realize indeed just in time before the French holidays.
So -- but therefore, thank you, everybody, in order to have done all that hard work. But I think we all are so proud today that we are here and we count on your vote in November. Thank you, and have a good summer and see you back in September.
Warehouses De Pauw — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everybody. For the first time, we are not all together in the same room for an investor call, the proof of our growing European platform. Too much business to do. So we have to spread our spendable time better between clients and investors. Yes, our new 2030 vision announced with the full year results landed very well internally and externally within team WDP, our clients and our investors. It boosted our enthusiasm to build out the EUR 10 billion-plus platform for tomorrow. And yes, we made a perfect start by gathering already new building blocks towards 2030. One, by enforcing our international team and also by assembling on building out in the short term, a new unique land bank from Zwolle to Marseille together with interesting add-on acquisition developments, redevelopments in all our countries.
All of this is fully supported by more and more clients asking to do business with us in more countries. Since my statement, we can now offer solutions from Helsinki to Madrid and Rome. And all of them will be realized step-by-step in the coming quarters, of course, all fitting within our EUR 500 million investment envelope per year. So I can say with confidence that we are seeing a lot of activity in the different business segments we are in, even though we are still living in volatile times. And this is really a big difference versus a year ago. Back then, almost everybody was waiting for more stable times. Today, people are increasingly accepting that volatility is there to stay and that we have to handle with it. And for the short term, Q1, of course, can never deviate really from what we announced 2 months ago with the full year results and the outlook.
So yes, we can, of course, confirm our EUR 1.6 earnings per share guidance for '26. And the most important news of this report is that we replenished the investment pipeline with EUR 140 million new investments consisting of 4 new pre-let developments and an add-on acquisition at an NOI of 6.9%. And so we keep the pipeline in execution at EUR 700 million. And we also signed 100,000 square meters of new leases across the developments and kept the occupancy within the normal foreseen levels of 97% to 98%. So a clean sheet to steer even with all the volatility around this. Time for Q&A. Alexander, the floor is yours.
Good morning, and welcome to the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] We already have the first question in line from Marios. [Operator Instructions]
2. Question Answer
Great. I've got 2 questions from my side. I'll ask them one by one as mentioned. So firstly, you mentioned this morning that you see demand broadening, you've got larger space requirements selectively coming back to the market. If I look at your leasing volumes and the proportion of leases renewed through Q1, I think this was running lower year-on-year. And of course, we've now got the renewed uncertainty around the conflict. So how are you thinking about leasing volumes through the year? Should we expect an improvement? And are we on track to get to that 90% renewal rate?
First, indeed, demand and the renewal rate is also depending on and can differ from year-to-year on the moment when the renewals will be there. There can be a lot of renewals in the beginning of the year or in the end of the year. But in general, let's say, like we said, we see a lot of activity. There is more and more demand in the smaller spaces, let's say, there, we have already since last year, a normal market, in the market up to 10,000 square meters. As from September, then we have seen new strategic partners and strategic decision-makers coming back to the market because they said, look, we can't wait for more stability. We go for it. We have a vision.
We think that we can also use the moment versus our colleagues who are still hesitating. And now since the beginning of the year, we also see new tenders for bigger spaces. And so more and more, everything is normalizing. I think if we are still missing one thing, then indeed, you can say, okay, there is no economic growth yet. So let's say, the normal daily extra square meters that we have, one, economy goes up. So the cyclical square meters there, let's say, people are still hesitating because yes, economy is not yet retaking. So -- but we are, let's say, confident about the demand and the occupancy.
Very clear. And then just secondly, on country managers now in place across Italy. What are you tracking there in terms of portfolio opportunities to ramp up exposure? And how should we think about the timing of this coming through?
Well, we always said that the new countries are part of our '27-2030 plan, but that we will engage them now in order to prepare the future. And let's say so, we -- and they are just, let's say, engaged. Spain started the 1st of March. Italy starts the 1st of May. But let's say, now we are onboarding them. They will make a plan about the market, about how the competition is handling, about where are the possibilities, the opportunities for us. And so now they have the time to prepare. And then at the right moment, they will come with a development or an acquisition. So let's say, we did it now instead of waiting and having a portfolio, we hire them upfront, but let's say, give them also a little bit time to get and to learn our DNA and to learn the markets and go forward. So it is indeed within the 2030 plan.
The next question is coming from Frederic from Kepler. [Operator Instructions]
I hope you can hear me. Just one question on the renewal on existing lease. I'm not so sure you mentioned at which level of rate these were realized. So can you comment on that? And maybe can you give a comment on the ERV growth on your respective market for Q1? That would be the first question.
Mick, will you take this?
Yes, I'll take that one, Frederic. The lease renewals were done at the ERV, so at levels in line with the spread between contractual rents and ERV and let's say, between 7% and 9%, that was, but we can confirm those ERVs. And then the second part of the question was the ERV trend across the markets was flat, which is also normal with a bit of market volatility. But the good thing is we are capturing the spread.
Yes. The fact that we are now at 7% instead of 10% means that we can capture the potential and then it can go up again.
And then can you maybe comment a bit about -- because you are referring to the fact that you are seeing more appetite for larger units. So to -- can we conclude that for the upcoming months, you should be announcing something relatively large, a bit to the same extent that what you have been announcing in Antwerp, for instance, in your development pipeline?
We have to see -- let's say, we have to stay cautious. But yes, we see people -- we see big demand like indeed, the Antwerp development is a very nice one. I think this is a good example. And yes, of course, it will be not the last one on the contrary. But say, it's too early to say when will it still be before summer the intro. We see much more activities, and there will be very nice things to come in the near future.
The next question is coming from Suraj from Green Street. [Operator Instructions]
Just one question from me. Could you please provide some color on how construction costs are trending in real time across your key developed markets given the conflict in the Middle East? It will be interesting to hear your thoughts on that.
Let's say, it's a combination of 2 factors. First of all, indeed, there is some, let's say, nervosity with our contractors about, yes, those elements of their materials who are, let's say, linked to oil prices like isolation, of course. But on the other hand, there is also not a lot of work. And that is the difference versus, I would say, the post-corona time, then you had indeed prices exploding of materials, and there was a lot of work. And then indeed, the total cost -- of the total construction cost went up. But now, let's say, there was still a downward trend since there was less activity. And yes, there is now -- they are, let's say, thinking, have I still stock?
Can I already reinvoice extra price, they try to, let's say, use those elements. So -- but on the other hand, there is not so many work. So I think today, prices are flat and at a low level. But yes, depending on how long it takes, depending on the problem in the Middle East, there could be for some elements, a little part, higher part, but it's not like -- it's not the same like after COVID. There is still demand -- less demand, so for new buildings so the margins are lower. And I think today, it's compensated and prices will, let's say, at least very well and not a problem to do profitable projects.
The next question is coming from Vivien from Degroof Petercam. [Operator Instructions]
I had a question on the investment market. Just wondering of what you've seen in terms of new assets portfolio put for sales, if there is still, I would say, a new portfolio put on the market since the conflict? Or do you expect some, I would say, lower liquidity and therefore, lower opportunities for you to acquire assets on the market?
I think no, I said the contrary in my intro. There I said that we see a lot of possibilities, a lot of activity that we are negotiating some very interesting acquisitions, let's say, in all the countries. So no, I cannot say that there is less liquidity. On the contrary, let's say, since the beginning of the year and since last year, I think there is more and more liquidity and that didn't stop, let's say, the last month, no. More than enough possibilities for us in all the countries.
Perfect. And then a second question was on the contribution of solar energy. You made some comments in the press release. I just wanted to get a bit more detail there and if you could provide any guidance on what to expect in the future quarters and the contribution to the top line.
Mick, you will take this?
No energy, you mean, Vivien?
Yes.
For the income from energy, we look at the full year number, and then we can still confirm what we have in our budget in the guidance. You can also see the details in the annual report in the order of magnitude of EUR 26 million for the full year.
The next question is coming from Paul May from Barclays. [Operator Instructions]
A couple of quick ones from me. First one on the vacancy rate movement and the disposals you've done. Are the disposals -- the disposals have an impact on that vacancy rate in terms of how they've moved that? Or is that purely just an underlying operational movement? It should be quite a quick one and then I've got a second question.
First of all, on the disposal, no, that didn't have an impact because that disposal already happened of the Belgian side happened in Q4. So in Q1, it was the normal usual movement of tenants and it's fully in tune with our budget and which we guided for at the start of the year that we see a normal occupancy rate in a normalized market of between 97% and 98%. And this small quarterly movement just reflect the usual tenant movements.
Okay. Perfect. And then second one, you mentioned obviously in the opening and the last question about acquisition opportunities definitely being there and I think if anything potentially increasing given higher rates for some of the owners of those assets. How would you look to fund those? I think at the full year, you mentioned if there was a large transaction, you'd happily equity fund it. But obviously, your leverage position has been creeping up. I just wondered how you're thinking about that with these increased opportunities on the acquisition side that you mentioned?
Well, first of all, Paul, I mentioned that we see indeed acquisition opportunities, but that they all fit. I added that clearly, that they all fit within the EUR 500 million investment envelope we have every year. So today, they are perfectly fitting in. But like we mentioned at the full year results, if there is a special extra transaction at a certain moment, then we will investigate it, and we will put it against our cost of capital at that moment. And then, let's say, we can see what we do. But the most important thing is the fact that we have EUR 500 million a year. And let's say, this is as from '27 to 2030, even EUR 2 billion we have during 4 years to invest. And everything today fits perfectly within that EUR 500 million envelope. And if there is more, like we said, then we will investigate it. And if we can create value, we are open to do it. And if not, we will not do it.
And just to check on the create value, is that more an income-led view? Or is it an asset value sort of NAV-led view? I think in the past, you've been more income led, but just to check.
Income-led.
We want to -- our main metric is earnings per share creation and having on all the assets, a solid correct risk-adjusted long-term total return -- property return. That's how we look at it.
The next question is coming from Ana from Morgan Stanley. [Operator Instructions]
My question is on your outlook for market rents, so ERVs. I believe that in the full year results, you mentioned that you were expecting market rental growth to come back in line with inflation and in the long term, maybe above inflation. However, the first quarter, we've had another quarter of flat ERVs roughly, and therefore, your reversionary potential is compressing. So yes, I just wanted to know how are you thinking about this, particularly as with inflation going up, you would probably see a little bit more of this reversionary potential in the absence of ERV growth.
Yes, but that never follows so fast. Yes, there is, again, a little bit more inflation. And so yes, that will be -- and we still believe that ERVs will grow at least for the short term with inflation. But let's say that has to take some time. It's not quarter-on-quarter, we have to see that in -- and indeed that, let's say, the inflation went up just the last month and that, let's say, ERVs are not following month-on-month on that, but that's, let's say, on a yearly basis more you have to look at on a yearly basis and in the longer term. Mick?
Yes, absolutely confirmed.
The next question is coming from John from Kempen. [Operator Instructions]
Just one on the like-for-like rental growth. I noticed it dipped a bit over Q1, but guidance for 2% is still reiterated for the full year. Is there a timing or base effect in here to bring it back to this level? Or do you expect occupancy to really materially improve here?
I think the figure we show is broadly in line with what we guided for at the start of the year. There, we said a like-for-like rental growth expected for the full year around 2%. And we, at that moment, said within indexation will be a bit less than 2% for the full year. We have around 50 basis points coming from reversion, and that would be then partially offset by the impact of temporary vacancies related to tenant movement. So what you see is actually in tune with that guidance.
We also have one question for you, Joost, in the chat coming on cold storage. Can we -- can you give some additional feedback on the exposure to cold storage and the attractiveness that we see in that submarket compared to conventional warehouses?
Well, indeed, it has always been a very interesting segment within our business since indeed, you need to, let's say, you can make better warehouses, there is more equipment in. And then indeed, let's say, in those warehouses, people stay longer and more and more -- let's say, more and more products need to be in cold warehouses and the legislation everywhere in Europe is getting up. So the requirements are indeed more severe. So let's say, more and more goods needs to be in cold storage.
And there is still, let's say, in cold storage, there is less activity and I would say, less buildings available. So there is almost always full occupancy in cold warehouses. Cold, meaning them, let's say, positive between 2 to 4 degrees or around 10 degrees. Of course, then you still have the deep freezers too, also a very interesting segment since indeed, there is less supply in those things, and we are able to develop them and more and more clients are wanting it. So it's a very interesting add-on segment in our business and growing.
[Operator Instructions] In the meantime, also to highlight there are no further questions. Some of them have already been covered, so we can cover them again off-line if need be. And that said, there are no other people in line to ask a question. So I will give the word back to you, Joost, for any concluding remarks.
Okay. Thank you, Alexander. Indeed, we are only 2 months further than the announcement of our new vision and so that cannot deviate. But I think I can just repeat 2 things, indeed that we have a clear ambition towards 2030 with a very clear goal. We want to create a fully integrated EU platform providing total supply chain infrastructure solutions. And above that, and again, based on Q1 and the long term, where we are already building forward, we can say that we are delivering today with a vision for tomorrow. And so above-average growth with a below average risk profile. Thank you all. And we stay, of course, always available for all your further questions about this and about the future towards 2030. Thank you all, and have a good Friday.
Warehouses De Pauw — Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Warehouses De Pauw — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning. Wolvertem calling. Welcome team WDP wherever you are in Europe. Welcome also to the readers of the TET and LeKo and of course, welcome to our investor community. And I think we can say it's a good morning with the happy team around me for the Presentation of the full year results, '25. If we look to, let's say, other operations and the operational results, we can say, we delivered again a clean sheet with an EPS of EUR 1.53. It's an underlying growth of 7% year-on-year, an occupancy rate of 97.7%, more than 0.5 million of square meters new leases, a portfolio growing to EUR 9 billion, all backed by a perfect balance sheet with a loan-to-value of 40% and a net debt to EBITDA of 7.5.
And as an [ exam ], we could indeed -- we can also use our balance sheet now as a real value enabler with our new rating, our A3 rating of Moody's, which gives us a top 5 balance sheet within the quoted real estate world in Europe.
And if we look then a little bit close into our operations, we can really say that we did a perfect job. About 550,000 square meters of new leases, we can say that the WDP platform can capture market demand more than our market share. We secured EUR 600 million of new investments at a net initial yield of 6.8%, which means also that we could keep our investment pipeline in execution at a very high level, up EUR 700 million with the same expected net initial yield.
And of course, for all this, the funding is in place. So we can really say that we are in full execution and fully on track to reach our EUR 1.7 EPS target for '27. So yes, indeed, we see the EUR 1.7 in '27 at the horizon, and we are fully on track. Yes, we still have to lease further and to execute our investment pipeline, but we see that most of our new initiatives are already looking beyond '27 and are value creating beyond '27. So this makes that we have to look further and that we are ready to extend our horizon.
So yes, we extend our horizon to 2030 with a clear goal and a clear focus. Our goal is to scale into an integrated EU platform, providing total supply chain infra solutions with our classical focus, delivering above-average growth with below average risk profile.
And this brings us to BLEND&EXTEND2030 as from now so much more than just a financial hedging project, it becomes a real plan, a real plan based on our proven building blocks, yes, built. Yes, there is structural demand and we are able to capture it.
Yes, we will continue to load it with selective acquisitions, new developments in existing and in new markets like Spain and Italy. Yes, we still can further extract value from our internal, from our existing portfolio with indexation, rental growth and active asset management. Yes, we will neutralize further by adding total energy solutions and keep on decarbonizing the logistics supply chain. And yes, of course, we will stay disciplined. What do you want with Mick. Besides me, I have to stay disciplined and create value with risk-adjusted capital allocation. So a proven, scalable, multi-driver model that brings us and let us grow further into the future. Mick?
Yes. Thank you, Joost. Now how does that strategic picture translate into our target setting for BLEND&EXTEND2030. We believe that we can continue the envisaged EPS growth rhythm of our '27 plan and roll forward the attractive plus 6% average growth rate towards 2030 translating into an EPRA EPS of at least EUR 2 by 2030. Also, considering that we already generate a very high recurring cash return on equity of 7%, 8% to start with, even with a minimum portfolio revaluation of just over 1% per year, we believe we are set for double-digit total returns throughout the period of at least 10% per year, measured as NAV growth plus dividends paid.
The key assumption here is that we have a fully internally funded EUR 500 million CapEx per year. Why EUR 500 million? Because that way it is designed to be independent of external equity raisings considering the higher cost of capital versus the past so we can make the 5-year plan fully internally funded, which we believe is a very strong message and attractive.
How can we do that? Well, we have a recurring yearly strengthening of our equity of EUR 250 million to EUR 300 million being a combination of retained earnings, stock dividends and the regular contributions in kind. Hence, that should enable us to achieve that growth and maintain a stable capital structure with net debt to EBITDA staying around 8x and a loan to value around 40%, fully in tune with our top-tier A3 credit rating.
On the next slide, you can see our multi-driver approach at work. As we have been seeing over the last couple of years, we have adapted ourselves to the current environment and a more complex world and the way we create value. And what we try to do is build layers. We have a first layer of internal growth coming from indexation, rent reversion and active asset management initiatives, then we add the impact of external growth, a balanced mix between acquisitions and developments, and we add another layer of our energy investments.
And yes, we can cope with the cost of debt reset, which is manageable and only gradual and for which you can find more details in the remainder of the presentation. But combined -- and that is important, it gives us an average plus 6% throughout 2030, leading to, as you said, above average growth for the below average risk.
Now turning to the outlook for '26. We have an EPRA EPS guidance of EUR 1.60. So that's 5% growth year-on-year with the key underlying assumptions being in tune with the drivers just mentioned, a combination of internal and external growth. And that's important as well, operational and financial KPIs staying strong with occupancy rates above 97% and in line with the long-term average and also with stable leverage metrics.
This figure is also looking robust already now at the start of the year as most of the work has been done, and our teams are now working in full force to get to that finalization of the EUR 1.70 in '27 and are very eager to start the work for the 2030 plan. Joost, over back to you.
Thank you, Mick. So we can say that we are ready to build the platform of tomorrow from a regional leader in the past to a core EUR 10 billion plus European platform, where we can use our scale in order to help our clients with cross-border solutions. We can do it efficient and profitable. And so enabling total returns and indeed, very important for us as a real estate company, this gives us a superior access to capital. And for this growth, we will be supported further by the next-generation of the family, De Pauw, who showed again their long-term commitment as a reference shareholder by appointing 2 new directors in our board.
And besides this, we're also strengthening our Board with more international knowledge. And this is also important in order to become a real European player. So yes, indeed, we are ready for delivering today with a vision for tomorrow. And this all will generate an above-average growth with a below average risk profile. And now I will give the floor to Alexander in order to answer all your questions. But before we do that, we give you just a little overview of some recent real estate projects. See you in a minute.
[Presentation]
[Operator Instructions]
Before we address the questions, maybe the first important one, Joost, what's your take currently on the market?
Indeed, I think the first question of you all is still demand. And there, we can be -- give you -- we can give you a clear answer. But more than 0.5 million of square meters new leases in '25, a normalizing occupancy range between 97% and 98% and a normalizing retention rate around 90%, we can say that demand for logistics real estate in Europe is normalizing from the exceptionally high during the pandemic years towards the multiyear pre-pandemic average with the market balance gradually improving as tenants optimized their inventory and operations and new developments remain disciplined.
Why is the pickup of market demand still depends on consumer spending and business confidence? The last quarter, we really witnessed an improving leasing momentum by our commercial teams. Of course, demand is still more dynamic for smaller and high-end units up to 10,000 square meters, but it is now also selectively extending into larger-sized units, mainly for those clients that are able to take strategic decisions in the still volatile world. And this is an important sign.
And more recently, we even see some cautious, bigger tenders in the market again. Demand is mostly originating from specific sectors, such as food, pharma, e-commerce as well as strong performing companies expanding their market positions. Our commercial platforms remains well positioned to capture that demand. Considering our high-quality portfolio, it's about having the right building at the right location besides, of course, our deep-rooted international network and our flexibility to adopt buildings to meet the client needs.
Looking ahead, the medium- to long-term fundamentals for logistics and industrial real estate remains positive, underpinned by limited land availability, constrained supply and the continued need for more resilient and regionally diversified supply chains. As I said in my intro, a resilient supply chain is not a nice to have, it's essential infrastructure.
Thank you. The first question is coming from Marios Pastou from Bernstein.
2. Question Answer
Perfect. I do have two from my side, I'll ask one by one. So just firstly, on the capital allocation across our country mix, can you maybe give us an idea of the order of priorities as part of your plan 2030. Will France and Germany be a priority, for example, as that's been your target for the last couple of years. The Germany hasn't really ramped up yet? Or will his be purely opportunity-driven?
We never give that split of our intended capital allocation because the moment we say X, the next day, it will be Y., but so it will be a balanced mix across the geographies and yes, if we can do something more in the new markets, then it's always a plus of course.
So this is not purely opportunistically driven. There's no kind of priority in terms of which market to enter.
Where we can generate the value measured as EPS growth with a good long-term solid total return.
Okay. Very clear. And then just secondly, in terms of the establishing the presence in Spain and Italy, are you looking land bank. Are you looking for existing portfolios with upside potential? And maybe give us idea of how many opportunities you're currently tracking there?
Well, I think there, we will look as to those countries as we did in the past and as we do in every other country. So we will go -- first, let's say, there will be 1 difference. Before we always said, we need first the portfolio and then we go for a team, and I think we learned from Germany, which is, of course, a very difficult country that it is better to have first a country manager than letting them make a plan and then indeed starting it.
So we will first go for country managers, letting them make a plan, and then we will go into the countries with a plan and that will depend on -- and it will always be a combination like in blend. Yes, we will look for existing portfolios. Yes, we will do the developments. And it's all based on with what can we create value that can be with an existing site, with a development, it will always be the combination. That's the reason why our plans are called blend, a combination of internal and external growth.
The next question in line is from Suraj from Green Street.
There's a couple of questions from me, I'll also do it one by one. First one is, I guess you touched on it a little bit, but just on the desire for a presence in Spain and Italy. I appreciate you can't necessarily give any sizing by 2030, and you did touch on your approach. But just taking a step back and thinking higher level, what's kind of drawing you into these markets, what do you really like from a supply and demand perspective?
Well, I think, first of all, we add them to the portfolio because it's logic. We come from the Benelux added France and Germany and then we go down so that we can offer better more international solutions to our clients. That's the first idea. And then for the rest, yes, it will indeed depend on opportunities and possibilities. And yes, it is part of the 2030 plan, but within the capital allocation of the EUR 500 million per year.
Perfect. Very clear. And just a second one, again, it's quite broad just on the Benelux as a whole. I know you mentioned the demand drivers earlier and occupancy has been increasing within your own portfolio. Do you think the vacancy has peaked for a wider market within the Benelux? And what are your thoughts for future rent growth?
Yes. Suraj, maybe just a small add-on on the overall market. So what we basically have seen over 2025 is a bottoming in take-up levels over the first half of 2025. Q3, Q4, that data that is still out, you currently see a quarterly take up in most markets, and that's in our core markets as well as in Romania. When it comes to vacancy, stabilizing between 4.5%, 5%. What you, every now and then, see is when you look at the key figures of country level, you might see an increase in outlier in France, for example, 6% or in Netherlands.
It's around 5%. But when you look through to micro levels, you typically see that, for example, in the Randstad, it's closer to 3.5%. So there, we actually see that the underlying vacancy is also very low.
And as Joost already mentioned, it's also supported by land scarcity, permitting grid connection, which is also creating challenging times to add new space. So that's in terms of the spot vacancy that we see in the existing markets. When you then look at new construction starts, it's also broad-based down with 50%.
Typically, you have closer to 5% of total stock being delivered every year, that's already down to 2.5% as well. And it's also 80% plus pre-let. So that's in terms of vacancy and in terms of rental growth.
Yes, on the market rental growth, we think the most logical picture would be that -- and the logic that in last year was a bit more difficult markets that it stayed flat after years of a very strong increase. The good thing is that we can really achieve those ERVs. And in some cases, we can also improve them by improving further the buildings. And the most logic thing would be when the markets as we expect starts to further recover that ERVs would first grow back in line with inflation. And then afterwards, in the mid- to long term, they would grow with inflation plus given the scarcity element and the importance of having lands and also now more and more power available.
The next in line is Wim from KBC Securities.
Yes. Congrats on your BLEND30 programs, especially in these uncertain times come out with such a long-term view. I also got one question and a small follow-up. My question is really on the internal financing. And I fully understand that you now give an outlook of EUR 500 million CapEx, mainly internally financed. Now although the market I believe is expecting because of your premium [indiscernible] to NPA that you might consider also rating equity.
Now Joost answer to this, and I've heard many times is that, and I think also Mick mentioned that in the presentation, your cost of equity is too high. Recently, you had participated in the Catena issue. So my question really is how much do you see or do you need your cost of equity to decline or your share price to increase before you start thinking of, let's say, becoming a bit more aggressive on raising equity and maybe then growing also faster in certain regions that you've been eyeing or where prices have been too high.
Well, that's something we will not comment on, Wim, because then we start the speculation. We think the most important thing is, Wim, that we can have the internally funded CapEx of EUR 500 million per year and that we can achieve 6% growth to at least EUR 2 per share. And yes, if we see attractive opportunities generating a return above our cost of capital at that moment because cost of capital moves every day, interest rates moves, share price move. And then we will, obviously, when we see an accretive opportunity, we will not hesitate to use our share like we have done in the past when needed. But the most important thing is we can get to the EUR 2 fully internally funded.
And also do not forget that we manage -- do not forget that we manage the capital structure on a forward-looking basis. And so with the EUR 250 million to EUR 300 million of equity coming in each year, already reduces without investments 3% the loan-to-value and 0.5x the net debt to EBITDA. So that's a very strong machine we have going on.
Let me try it another way because I fully appreciate that you want to avoid speculation, but there is now exact speculation on something that might come where you think differently. So as I reiterate it, so you recently participated at Catena. Can you confirm that your cost of equity would be around the same of Catena data that...
But I don't think the link to Catena is really of importance. We supported Catena as a reference shareholder and maintain our 10% strategic stake, and we support the company, which is doing very well. And with respect to WDP and equity raising, I will quote what the famous Belgian politician once said, "we will deal with it when the opportunity arrives and then we will look at what our return on that acquisition is versus our cost of capital at that moment."
And that's what Catena also did. They had a big opportunity, and then they looked at it and then they use -- let's say, based on the opportunity they had, they raised equity in order to make a creative deal. That's it.
Okay. Let's -- just for a short follow-up. You also mentioned contributions in kind. Can you give an indication of what size that could be? Is -- are you thinking EUR 20 million, EUR 30 million, EUR 50 million max or could that be also a bigger size?
No. For the EUR 250 million to EUR 300 million per year, we have around EUR 100 million of retained earnings, EUR 125 million coming from the stock dividend and EUR 70 million, EUR 75 million of contributions in clients like we do each year, around EUR 50 million per year.
The next question is coming from Jamie from [indiscernible].
Congratulations on the results and thanks for the update. I have just one question. What occupancy assumptions are embedded in the 2030 EPS target and how sensitive are these to occupancy falling given you're already operating at high levels today?
Well, what we foresee in the BLEND2030 plan is that the occupancy stays around these levels and above 97%, which is normal and fully in sync with the long-term average.
The next one is coming from Pierre-Emmanuel from Jefferies.
Actually, the first question is a follow-up of the previous one. So on the 2% like-for-like rental growth that you're targeting for 2026, so first one, how much is coming from indexation and reversion on top. And if I'm looking at your 2030 target, what is the average like-for-like rental growth that you took at the main assumption?
Yes. So on the like-for-like breakdown for '26. So you know we have a guidance of like-for-like rental growth this year of around 2%. And the composition is that the inflation component indexation is a bit less than 2%, and then we had 50 basis points through the rent reversion and then minus 50 -- around minus 50 basis points due to the occupancy rate, and that is solely linked to tenants moving in and also a bit of frictional vacancy because yes, we were used to fantastic pandemic years where when a tenant moved out, then the next -- there was the next tenant coming in, and the rent just continued.
Now you have just the normal typically -- typical short void periods like you have in a normal market like in the past and actually going towards that 2030 target, the organic growth we foresaw is pretty much the same as in '26, apart from the occupancy part, of course, and that we can then have inflation plus -- capture inflation plus with 2% average indexation, and we can capture per year around 50 basis points of reversion above indexation. That's the assumption in the 2030 plan.
Okay. That's clear. And my second question is on the vacancy for 2025. What would have been the impact on vacancy if you would have kept the empty assets that you sold at the beginning -- at the end of the year -- of last year. And on top, can we expect more disposals of empty buildings in order to keep the vacancy below 3% in 2026.
The first one, I'll take that one. Joost, the second part, the impact was around 30 basis points.
And concerning, let's say, we are always looking for the best value creation and doing good asset management indeed, normally, we don't sell assets. But sometimes, when it is -- let's say, when you can do an interesting deal, we are always open when, let's say, it creates value for WDP. Like, for example, at the end of last year, there, we could sell -- okay, it was a big unit, but it was a small unit in the bigger port of Liege, where we have, let's say, a very small position where -- we're only the third player on that side.
So there was not -- we had not a lot of power to create value and then we could sell it to the neighbor. An example of a strategic buyer who said, "look, this is probably a once in a lifetime moment. So I'm ready. And I, of course, will have to pay the right price." But when he pays the right price, we said, okay, you can have it and you can buy it instead of renting it and then we could directly reinvest it from local Port, the Port of Liege towards the Port of Paris with a new strategic investment and a new strategic client Seafrigo.
And yes, if we can do similar deals in the futures, we are always open for that, but always with the idea that it has to create value for WDP and not just selling a building because we want to sell something. We don't need to sell anything, but active creative asset management, we are always open. Like I said, sometimes you need to be creative and sometimes also a little bit contrarian.
Understand. And just a quick follow-up. In your 2026 guidance of vacancy below 2%, does it take into account potential disposal of empty buildings? And on top, maybe it would be interesting to guide us through the lease schedule in 2026, how many leases are at risk, how many tenants are -- may leave in 2026?
Yes, we are back at a retention rate at a normal retention rate of 90% and today, from the 10% tenants with a break in '26. There is already, let's say, almost 2/3 are already prolonged. So -- which is more than the -- the long-term average of 50%. And now there are no further, let's say, sellings of buildings foreseen in the plan in order to keep the occupancy high or higher.
The next in line is Francesca from ING.
I have just a couple. The first one is about the assumption that you took about the cost of debt over the 2030 plan? The second one is about the...
One by one.
One by one, please. Yes, for the cost of debt assumption, we took into first for the base rate, the forward interest rate curve. So with Euribor rising from 2% today to a bit less than 3% by 2030 and the swap rate rising from 2.5% to 3%. And then with the margin added, we are below 100 basis points, which is what we currently pay for 5 to 7 years debt. That's the assumption.
That's fine. So I move to the second question. How much of the [ EUR 1 billion ] in investment spending that you have for 2030 is going to be devoted to the Energy division? And what type of hypothesis you took behind this type of investment?
Yes. So the -- for the Energy division, it's a bit less than 10% of the EUR 500 million per year, so around, let's say, EUR 40 million per year and it's composed of the further rollout of our solar panel program and will go to 350-megawatt peak by '27. And there afterwards, we -- it will further grow in line with new development projects. Then secondly, we have the on-site batteries we are installing. And then we also have by commissions, by '29 a big stand-alone battery projects for which we just obtained the grid connection, which you can see on this slide in the green area.
And that's the bulk of those investments. And then we will also add some first pilot projects in EV truck charging in mobility hubs as it is foreseen that our clients will and transport will change towards electrification.
But there, it's too early -- already too early to make bigger assumptions on that because of what is happening now in the world around geopolitics, energy, self-sufficiency. So we believe that, that could come for a later plan. But that is the assumption we took, and you should take into consideration as there's profitability of solar panels then, let's say, 8% IRR, 10%, 15% yield on cost for the battery, it's around 15% IRR and 20% yield on cost. And those elements should bring us to a doubling of the revenue towards EUR 50 million in 2030. So I hope that's sufficient color.
Yes. And then maybe my last question in the development costs, an important part is the [indiscernible] development project, development pipeline. Can you share your feeling about development cost for [indiscernible]? Do you -- do you experience any [indiscernible] about the overall operating...?
Well, we would say that over the last years after COVID, they have declined towards a level which is now broadly stable depending a bit on where you have -- how much work the construction companies have or per project or how big it is, but in general, they are okay and stable.
And we can generate -- we can with those with the current construction cost, we can generate the targeted returns and let's say, the most distinguishing factor to achieve return -- the desired return on a development project is the availability of land, the cost thereof and the availability of power. These are the most important determinants of a development project today, right, Joost?
Yes. But the good thing is that, let's say, we can create value with a combination. It's not only that we need developments to create value or that we only can buy. No, it is the combination. And you can do an acquisition. And based on that acquisition, there can be an extra development. So it's really -- the value is in the combination. It's not about developing or doing acquisitions or entering a new country. No, it is that combination, that blend element, that is really we blend everything and then we can create value. That is the most important future looking.
The next in line is Paul from Barclays.
Thanks for presentation. Just a couple of questions from me. Just first one on the depreciation of the solar and other energy. I think currently running about 45% of the revenue is depreciation, which given there's arguably 0 value on solar panels are used up and batteries are used up. Surely, that is a cost that should be included in your analysis and probably shouldn't be added back when looking at your net debt to EBITDA just rather you're only taking 100% of the positive and 0 of the negative in your debt metrics. So I just wonder your thoughts on that and how that is included and you talked about in your plans?
Yes, it will be reflected in the end in our balance sheet as these investments come in the balance sheet at their fair value as they are for the property. And we believe the income -- the recurring cash income should be included in the EPRA -- in the EPRA earnings and also to take into consideration that the solar panels last a long time in the last 20, 30 years; batteries, 15, 20 years, depending on the intensity of the usage.
But if you use them faster, then the income will have been higher as well. So yes, there is no land component like in the buildings. But yes, buildings are, in essence, also depreciating and we take the view that, that is more a revaluation component, and that will be reflected in the balance sheet rather than in our EPRA earnings.
Okay. I mean it's quite different given the 0 value, but that's fair enough. Just coming back on the leverage question, leverage continues to increase, which is sort of counter to what we're hearing most investors want companies to do. They tend to want leverage to move in the right direction rather than the wrong direction there, which is the way you've been going.
I appreciate your comments around the cost of equity, but have you or the Board considers it -- looking at your company more in the U.S. way, so looking at implied cap rates rather than necessarily a made-up cost of equity, which nobody really knows what the answer is.
And if you compare you to Catena, for example, you're trading pretty much exactly the same implied cap rate and yet you are happy for them to issue equity but not happy to do ourselves other than a payment in kind, which is an issue of equity or a scrip dividend, which is effectively an issue of equity. So just wondering why you have a different view on sort of your equity to Catena or others? And why not looking at it from an implied cap rate basis?
Well, we look at it from an implied earnings yield, so in first price earnings perspective, because that's the metric we need to look at to generate earnings per share growth and then it will simply depend on the opportunities. We will not -- we have not said we won't do it, we said if we don't need it for executing the growth plan, which we believe is a fantastic statement and reassuring also for you, the investors, that it is self-funded to achieve already 6% growth throughout 2030.
And we have said that we have -- when we see attractive opportunities, generating an accretive return above our cost of capital, then we will not hesitate to use the share. That's how we are in it.
And the cost of equity between WDP and Catena, there is a big difference still today. We are at a 7% earnings yield and Catena was at or is at a 5.5%, let's say, cost of equity. So there is still a big difference. And so then indeed, they have a better cost of equity and it was in combination with an opportunity where they could create value. So there, let's say, we followed, and we also say indeed that, that was a good deal and the right moment to do that. But it's really still the difference in cost of equity is still very big, and we are still below the sector average, while price earnings are today at 17 around for our sector, and we are still around 14. So our cost of equity is still higher.
Yes, and we are aware about the comparison you mentioned that we are a bit higher in leverage than our U.S. counterparts, but then on the other hand, we are much lower in a debt-to-EBITDA, which is the metric that matters in a European perspective. And also, we believe that having the A3 rating also gives us somebody to -- as in a story an act of confidence in our balance sheet strength towards the generalist investors and also do note that our balance sheet is still based on values per square meter less than EUR 1,000 on average.
I hear that. I mean, I think, surely, that looking at it from an earnings yield basis, you should adjust for your current cost of debt, which is lower than it than marginal whereas Catena is more in line with marginal costs given the variable exposure. So that's a large reason why they have a lower earnings yield than you do is that their debt is already repriced, whereas your debt will reprice at some point in the future.
Hence the reason looking at on an ungeared or implied cap rate basis where you're basically trading at the same level. Let's say, a U.S. company would be looking at your equity and saying, issue equity every single day because it's cheaper to use your equity to buy assets. The market is overvaluing you on an implied cap rate basis. I think your equity is cheap, by the way. So as a separate point, hence the reason I wanted you to...
We agree to disagree. That's no problem, and we appreciate having exchanging the opinions.
The next in line is Fred from Kepler.
Just a question on my end. Maybe the first one, can you describe a bit the evolution of the ERV in your respective market, please? And how do you see it evolving in 2026 and just to link on that, you described an uptick in leasing momentum, also potentially for larger unit. Do you see more incentive to be given? That's the first question.
I think on the ERV, you answered it. So short term, it was flat. And now as the market starts to pick up again, we believe it will move back in line with indexation and in the mid- to long term inflation plus because of the scarcity element and then on the leasing momentum.
Indeed on incentives, we can say that it is not a matter of pricing, so not a matter of incentives, it's about, am I ready to jump, do I meet that building? Do I can create value? Our clients also have to create value in by renting a building? Can they use it in a positive way and let's say, when they say, if I can use it, then let's say if they pay the price, there are not so many possibilities most of the time in the building they want on the location. So it's not a price discussion on the contrary.
And I would say it would be only a matter of incentives I give for every empty building, 3 months' rent free and if everything would be rented, then I'm a happy man, but it's not the case. It is, am I ready to jump and then people pay the price. And indeed, most of the time, those prices are higher than the tenant who was in before. So everybody accepts the new price levels.
All right. And then the second question on Catena. What has the company brought to WDP excluding dividend since you have this 10% stake? Because it seems that -- I mean, to refer to the question of Paul, but the company trades at a higher multiple than yourself, which means isn't there a better use of your capital allocation today, just wondering?
We believe it's a strategic stake and are very happy with that. The company is performing very well as said, and we are happy with that long-term strategic stake because we could never cover that -- those markets by ourselves, and now we can also offer solutions in other countries through Catena, we can help and reinforce each other. And we recently also did a deal with ...
Indeed. And I think now, I'd say we did that not as a short-term opportunity, but as a long-term partner in order to be able and to become, let's say, a company that can offer solutions, let's say, from Stockholm and soon from Helsinki up to Madrid and Rome. So then we can offer to our clients total solutions on a whole Western Europe.
This is important, and it is over the short-term cycles. And indeed, for example, the deal in Le Havre with Seafrigo, well, that was also, let's say, Seafrigo is a client of Catena before. And so Catena could introduce us and there, we could use the combination of clients, for example. And for us, it's really about long-term helping clients and giving -- being able to give a total solution to our clients and core Western Europe.
All right. And therefore, does it mean that if you find, for instance, like company in the private market, which is active in Spain and in Italy, would you be happy to take a minority stake in order to invest indirectly into the market?
No. That will not be the case.
No, there we really set...
We said we do it by ourselves.
The next question is coming from Steven from ABN.
On a specific question on Le Havre where you added investments. Any comments on the region and more specifically on where we are with permitting for your land there. And we have this project contributing in '27 or in 2030 and adjacent to it, do you see risk on permitting as a result of the coming regional elections.
Dunkerque, yes, there, let's say, we are still waiting for permits. We have had a problem with the permitting time due to a bird like it sometimes happens when their strikes down a bird during the right period, you can do nothing. They have to investigate. So we got a longer option. And normally, but yes, in France, it can take a long time. We will -- we should get the permit, let's say, by the end of the year. So it will take still a long time.
But in the meantime, of course, it is only an option, and we are not owner of the land, so it doesn't cost us anything. But that's just -- there is no specific reason that just the normal procedure in France, it takes 2 year to get your permitting and here due to the bird, then it will be 3 year, but that can also happen, let's say, in the Netherlands or other regions, yes. Permitting is taking time everywhere.
Any potential risk of the local elections, could that be risk in your view?
I think no, not really. I'd say there are always everywhere elections in Europe, there has been elections that are also elections, if I'm right, in the Netherlands and in France. And -- but let's say, logistics is not politically sensitive, it is a strategic sector, the strategic infrastructure.
So let's say, we don't depend on, let's say, the local or more political waves.
And we also invest in industrial zoned land.
And then we have one more question from Alex [indiscernible]. You're currently unmuted. Just for the other questions that are in the activity feat in the chat. As we try to respect the time, it's getting close to 11:00, we'll address them, but we'll reach out to you directly. The floor is yours.
One question on the scrip dividend. What's your assumption in your EPS growth target there?
Yes, that we do it in line with the historical of minimum 50% take-up rate.
All right. Thank you very much. So this currently concludes the Q&A asset. We'll address the other questions in the chat directly. Any concluding remarks, Joost?
Yes, of course. Thank you, Alexander. And to conclude, I can say that indeed, and thanks to our platforms, our strong fundamentals and our DNA of being effective, creative, entrepreneurial. And now and then a little bit contrarian, that DNA that Tony and I created together the last 25 years, well, that DNA makes that we can deliver today with a vision for tomorrow. So we are ready and looking ahead to 2030. Thank you all, and see you soon.
Warehouses De Pauw — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everybody. Welcome to our Q3 update. First of all, this quarter will always be marked as the summer of the sudden passing away of our beloved Tony De Pauw, my company compagnon de route. Together as a perfect complementary couple, we built WDP together since the IPO of '99, based on the fundamentals of his father, our founder. I can assure you that together with the family, we will continue to build our European dream, a EUR 10 billion plus core Western European logistics and industrial real estate company with an add-on in Romania, based on our ever-lasting principles: being effective, creative and sometimes a little bit contrarian.
And in order to create our dream, we added the last missing element onto our financing strategy: a full operational EMTN program based on our new updated A3 rating of Moody's and our inaugural green benchmark bond of EUR 500 million with a unique margin of only 80 basis points. Once again, we show that we do not only create value with our assets, but also with our liabilities, and it is not included in our NTA. We are sure that this rating and our EMTN program has not only a value for our debt investors, but also for equity investors, especially the generalists.
Since our new credit rating brings us in the top 5 balance sheets of EU REITs. Special congrats to the long-term discipline of Team Finance. And besides that, of course, we also delivered once again on our promises: a clean sheet across the board. An EPS of EUR 1.15, 5%year-on-year, fully in line with expectations. Full year guidance of EUR 1.53 EPS confirmed. And as mentioned, of course, supported by the unique balance sheet with liquidity and auto financing in place.
And we also continue to demonstrate the strength of our commercial platform in a stable but owned market within a volatile world, probably for longer, and we will have to cope with it. Volatility will be the new normal. We realized 400,000 square meters of new leases signed this year across the existing portfolio, ongoing pipeline and new developments, with an occupancy of 97.4%, slightly higher. With all maturities in '25 resolved, 90% renewed, 10% re-leased or in current vacancy. An investment activity of EUR 475 million, bringing the total investment pipeline in execution to EUR 700 million at a 6.9% NOI yield, 80% -- 83% pre-leased after, of course, the deliveries of the running developments and acquisitions.
So as mentioned this summer, we have now all the building blocks in place to realize #BLEND2027 and confirm our '27 guidance of EUR 1.7 EPS. Almost halfway the 4-year period, we now have to build the house, which means executing and letting. And for those who doubt, let us be clear, #BLEND2027 is not the end. Our ambition is to create profitable growth with strong total return to go far beyond '27, based on the following foundations: the solid long-term fundamentals of the logistics and industrial real estate sector, and by internal value creation, especially through the E in BLEND, extracting value out of the portfolio by the land bank, rent reversion, indexation, occupancy, upgrades and so on.
But now first, time for Q&A with Alexander.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question is coming in from Steven from ABN.
2. Question Answer
I have several questions on occupier demand. First, a general question, so what do you see happening in occupier demand? And maybe second, to more...
Steven, can you ask them just one by one? Apologies.
Yes, sure. Maybe start with the specific ones. So the news that Amazon will invest EUR 1 billion in the coming 2 years in Belgium. Do you expect that to be in existing assets or expand only in their existing -- or sorry, for the existing assets or in new space? So that's one on Amazon.
Well, on Amazon, I think Belgium is the Benelux, first of all, and indeed, it is across the board in different things. They have some small buildings, which, of course, they will use first. And above that, they will also stay working with partners like bpost and PostNL. So it will be very broadly. And let's say, it will be a little bit everywhere within their total supply in their website, in their infrastructure. But let's say, that is not EUR 1 billion in extra space. I think in the end, if everything is successful, they will need more space, but it will be very broad and it will take some time.
Okay, clear. Then another news item...
In the end, it's always a good sign that a new player because Amazon is almost not active in our region, that let's say, a new player is entering the market.
Yes, very clear. That's good news. Then maybe another news item is that different countries, including the Netherlands, but also France and others want to add additional costs for small e-commerce packages to target the Chinese e-commerce players. Maybe already as of the 1st of January. Do you think that would materially impact demand for logistics warehouses?
No, it will have no impact on the warehouses. Let's say, that can make that some players, but let's say, who are just importing, it can only make the existing European e-commerce business bigger, let's say. So we don't see any negative impact on that.
Clear. And then maybe zooming a bit out just in general, occupier demand. Is it better today than 3 months ago, 6 months ago?
Well, like we said, I think let's look last year after summer. Then everybody came back from holiday and everybody was looking internally, okay, we go towards the end of the cycle. And we go into a little storm or a more heavy period, how can we protect what we have, protect our supply chain. Let's say, everybody looked inside and now since June, let's say, since the summer, now people are indeed, they reorganized, they optimized and now they are ready to look forward again. They look forward again. They are looking how can I optimize further? How can I invest in my supply chain? But of course, they wait for consumer spending to really do and make the decisions, but everybody is looking forward again. And I think this is a big difference versus, let's say, a year ago.
But indeed, we have to wait until consumer spending is really getting up here. And on the contrary, for example, in Romania, you see that consumer spending is growing, and then we can do developments like, for example, action who is there entering that market.
The next question is coming from John from Kempen.
On your credit rating, your latest bond issue demand was quite strong. Like you said, I think it was 80 basis points credit spread. What's the difference in the spread between being A rated and BBB?
The difference between the previous rating, BBB+ is around 5 to 15 basis points and it will be around 50 basis points versus a BBB.
Okay, 5 to 15. And how does it compare to your underwritten cost of debt in your #BLEND2027? I suppose this upgrade to A rating is not necessarily part of the #BLEND2027 plan.
No. But indeed, it will not change the '27 outlook, but indeed, there is a financial cost synergy to be captured because our existing debt. Has a credit spread of around 120 basis points and for an average historical of duration of 7, 8 years. And now we signed based on the A- rating. We did on the A3 rating of Moody's, we did a benchmark bond of 5 years at 80 basis points. So there is some synergy to be captured, but over the horizon of the maturity of the debt, obviously.
It's like a rent reversion. It will come, but it will take time.
Okay. Clear. And just on your commentary, I think in the press release, you're talking about that momentum is healthy for smaller units of up to 10,000 square meters. Would you consider adjusting your pipeline with the product that you're building to capture this demand?
Yes, but it's broadly. It's also in the existing portfolio. It's in the new demand, like, for example, the development in Prinsenhil, which was all more urban high-end logistics spaces, but less than 10,000 square meters. And there, indeed, we feel that, I would say, almost a normal market, but it is in the bigger demand that there is still very selective.
But yes, a lot of our sites are indeed constructed to be able to rent them. Let's say, if we have a 30,000 or 40,000 building -- square meter building, sometimes it's really already foreseen in the building that we can split it up. For example, for sales of 10,000 square meters. So we have always been flexible to, let's say, to capture the demand. I think this is very important that we are, as a company, as a commercial team and with the buildings, very flexible, able to capture the demand of the moment.
A good example is the building of Ericsson, where we had the break of Ericsson just prior to the delivery and for which we were fully indemnified, of course. That was the news of end of last year. But look at that building. It's a top-notch building, 30,000 square meter, and we can split it up in units of 10,000. We can use it for standard logistics operations or for semi-industrial. So that's a good example of how we build multifunctional warehouses.
Okay. Clear. And just as you alluded to the demand for the existing portfolio, you signed 100,000 square meters in Q3. I suppose part of it is also on the existing portfolio. What reversion did you capture on that?
On the -- so that everything is signed at ERV. So it's not a question about price. It's a matter of does that client need to take a decision already? And everything is signed at the ERV. And for the units signed in the existing portfolio, that is consistent with the reversionary, so plus 10%.
The next question is coming from Marios from Bernstein.
I've got 2 questions. I'll ask them one by one. So firstly, as we approach 2026, can you make any comment on the progress with lease renewals for the first part of next year? Or is it are we still a little bit too early?
Well, it's still very early. We just ended '25, let's say, at the end of July, and that's the -- when you close '25 and then you start up '26 in the beginning of September. So let's say, we just started up on that, and we start talking with our clients. But let's say, based on those first client -- on those first talks and conversations with our clients, we expect today that we can keep the normal retention rate around 90%.
And above that, for next year, specifically, there are no large concentrations in our tenants. The largest contracts are around EUR 2 million, so only 0.5% of the rental. And based on that, we have the confidence to keep the minimum 97% occupancy, as mentioned earlier. But of course, it is very early. And indeed, we will be able to give a first real detail and a first real forward-looking in our full year results at the end of January.
That's very clear. And then just secondly, I see there are a couple of projects in the Netherlands that have been delayed to the end of 2027. Is this isolated? Or is there a risk that, that could extend to others as well?
No, that is just linked to the connection with the grid. In the Netherlands, there are -- it's very difficult to get grid connections. And we are, let's say, now in good talks to get the grid connection, but it will take longer. And that's specifically for Schiphol case. So yes, it is a little bit lower, a little bit further, but only due to grid connection.
The next question is coming from Francesca from ING.
I'd like to have your thoughts on Germany because you are halfway to your 2027 plan, and you clearly reiterated your German ambition. We see other companies, other competitors pointing to Italy and Spain as interesting market at the moment for acquisition. Also, you had some time to get familiar with the Nordic markets via Catena that you entered in 2022, 2023. Can you share your thoughts on these markets besides Germany?
The BLEND project that we would, let's say, enlarge the Benelux with France and Germany. So we are fully focusing on those markets. And for the rest, of course, there are a lot of good markets besides that. And within every market, there are good places and less good places, but we focus on our strategy. And indeed, so we cannot comment on, let's say, all the other European companies or European countries, sorry.
But do you see interesting opportunities passing by coming from Italy and Spain, for example, or is something that is totally...
We are concentrating -- Francesca, we are looking to deep. We are making a team in France and now building up a team in Germany. Let's say, we have no people in other countries. So we don't look at those countries. We are fully concentrated on our own operations. And let's say, we don't look at all the other 20 countries in the European Union, where there could be -- there are good things to do everywhere in every market, but we concentrate on ours.
That's fine. I'm asking just because it seems Germany is difficult, not just for you, but also for other players. That's it.
Yes, of course, Germany is difficult, but it's not because it's difficult that we don't have to continue. Romania was also difficult 15 years ago. And the first 10 years, we did 100,000 square meters, but the next 8 years, we went up to 2 million square meters. So you have to continue and to persist in your long-term strategy and even when it's difficult.
And do you think that -- I saw that you opened the office and you had hired a country manager. Do you think you have enough resources to cover such a big investment market?
One by one, we do it. We start at the beginning of the year with one person, the Country Manager in France. In the meantime, we have there a fully equipped team of 7 persons. So there, we are, let's say, in full force. And now, yes, indeed, in Germany, we have only 2 persons, but we started now as from the 1st of September with our Country Manager. And for the moment, he is fully assisted by the Dutch team. So he can do -- he can start up. But yes, we will also, let's say, go for a full team in Germany. And let's say, now we can start. And if I say 2, it is already 3 because we have also already a third person now for Germany. So yes, our country manager will build up his team full by now.
Okay. And do you see the investment market changing over the latest months? Or is the situation seen there to the beginning of the year?
I think the situation in Germany is still the same. It's still very difficult, very difficult because prices stay very high. And we want to grow, but only in a profitable way. We don't go for growth or growth. And yes, with the team, we will come to -- we have a basis, we are building up the team. We have time, and we want to do it in a good way. And in the meantime, we have France.
Yes. And another little question about the pre-letting ratio because I see it seems to be stable compared to Q2. Is that impacted from the summer season? And how do you see this evolving by year-end for, let's say, for the coming months?
Pre-letting in the existing portfolio, in the pipeline.
The pre-letting, I think there is -- the pre-letting stayed the same. And of course, the third quarter is always, let's say, the quarter with the less activities then you finalize, let's say, Q2, the end of July, then August is holiday and then September, you just restart. But okay, because indeed, we are with the same pre-lettings, but we could add a new nice development in Romania. So that's also then it was not a higher pre-lease, but a higher -- with a new pre-let development.
And also, it's difficult to forecast on a quarterly basis. What is important is that we believe in the project. We have confidence in leasing of the projects, and so you should rather see towards the end of the project and everything that we have delivered so far has been fully occupied, fully leased up at delivery. And it's also a very limited portion of that pipeline versus the overall portfolio.
The next question is coming from Vivien from Petercam.
I hope you can hear me. I wanted to have a follow-up question on John regarding the smaller units. I just wanted to understand from your vacancy, how is the share of small units? And to that extent on occupancy, where do you see occupancy going by year-end? I think that you improved it from the low point of Q2 that you referred in the Q2 result. But could we expect further improvement by year-end? I know that your target is 97%, but I would assume that a quarter of letting should improve the overall occupancy by year-end. That's my first question.
Well, let's say, we -- it depends on let's say, it doesn't matter where a client rents. If it is in the occupancy or, let's say, as a new pre-let in the developments. So it will depend on where we can sign things. Yes, we are negotiating different files with different clients, but it's, let's say, difficult to say now if this will be in the existing portfolio in, let's say, in developments ongoing, not let, or in new developments. That's too early and too difficult to foresee.
And on your other question, which is the portion for smaller units and bigger units, that's also, let's say, like we mentioned before, it's very flexible and it can be a whole of 50,000 square meter, can be rented as a DC of 15,000 square meter or can sometimes be leased 3x 5,000 square meters or 10,000 and 5,000. So -- and we can adapt those buildings. That's the flexibility and the power of our commercial platform, we can put an extra wall in it. So there too, it's not -- we cannot say and we can change that depending on the place on how the building is. So it's not that [ 6% ] is smaller units, y% is bigger units. It really can depend.
Okay. Then I have another question on the investment market and the opportunity in value-add or core plus assets. Do you see any increasing competition that could put pressure on price? Is there any sizable portfolio you see on the market? Just feeling about how much opportunity you see currently on the market?
Well, there, let's say, the good thing, we -- of course, we look at the market. We see things happening in the market. And the big advantage for us is that we don't need to do anything. And we can look at it if there is something interesting, complementary value adding to the portfolio, we can do it, but we don't need to do it. We can concentrate on the existing portfolio, the pipeline. So -- but indeed, there are -- but yes, value add that it also has to have a complementary value within your portfolio. But it is a normal competition and not -- that did not change, let's say, versus a year ago. It's the same market.
Okay. Then I have a final one. I'll kind of address everything in the room here as we approach end of the year and that #BLEND2027 is fully secured. You put forward the auto financing capacity to seize additional opportunity beyond this plan. What will happen if you see very large attractive opportunities? Do you think you could raise capital at this stage at these price levels -- share price level, sorry?
I will quote a famous Belgian politician who said, "It's a hypothetical question, and we will deal with it when it comes." But then we will do like we have always done, can we create value? What is the return we can achieve? What is the earnings per share accretion we can achieve? What is the total return we can get on this deal? Is it complementary to the portfolio? What is the marginal cost of capital to fund it based on constant capital structure? That's how we look at it, and then that's how we have always done it with a strict discipline to allocate capital and with a strict discipline on the financial side.
The next question is coming from Suraj from Green Street.
Just a quick couple of questions from me. So the first one is just digging into the 2026 lease expiries a little bit more. I know you gave some color. Is it possible to share what kind of splits are across your markets or maybe asset types if possible? Just any color there? That's the first question.
It's really broad-based and very general, a perfect representation of the portfolio, I would say. And it's also, as you said, in the 40% of leases maturing, it's really scattered across the portfolio of types of buildings and maximum rent in one building of one client is 0.5% of the rental. So it's really very much distributed.
A normal year.
Okay. Perfect. And then the second one, more of a general question. Is it possible you provide some color perhaps on how construction costs are trending real time across your key development markets. If you've got any sort of anecdotal sort of information you share there, that would be very useful.
Let's say, as there is, in general, less new developments, let's say, there is less construction work for the construction companies. So they are all very well willing to build. So if there, I could say that there is a little pressure on the prices, but not that, let's say, will really change the yields of our development yields. But let's say, it's not negative. It's more positive than negative for the moment. But it won't change the NOI yields on developments, or not really.
The next one is coming from Wim from KBC.
I have some additional questions on the project that's now being auctioned or that's being negotiated, which is called the Audi site in Vorst. Maybe first to start off with, can you give kind of a status? Are you in it? Do you expect this to be finalized this year, middle next year? So yes, let's start with that one.
Well, let's say, as you know, when there is a fire, we have to sign NDAs. And of course, we can never comment on running tenders like this one and others since we are, let's say, forbidden to do that due to the signing of NDAs.
Okay. So I know that you signed an NDA, that's already interesting. Now maybe just generally, because you have a big site in the Renault side, the old site. Is there anything general you can say this is either different, whether you are maybe better placed for this one than the other one? So how do the two of them compare? Is that anything you can...
They totally not compare. They are not comparable, Wim. Let's say, Renault Vilvoorde is 20 hectares in the north, and that's fully let. That let's say, there, the factory is closed 25 years ago, and that's fully let. And there, we bought a yielding land bank with, let's say, now after 25 years for the next 25 years, we have to redevelop it and it's an enormous redevelopment potential in time. But in the meantime, we have a 7% income on, let's say, that land bank. So it's a very interesting yielding land bank.
And Audi, that's just -- they are still closing, let's say, the factory. And then you have to restart from 0. And Audi is 3x bigger, and that's 60 hectares. Vilvoorde is north of Brussels and north in Brussels City, the big Brussels region, it's north of that. And Audi is fully within that. So it's fully within Brussels, which is, let's say, also a different dynamic -- dynamism there. And it is, let's say, you buy empty spaces without any rental income. Those are the two big difference between those 2 sites.
Yes. Can I just...
So not comparable.
Yes, yes. And what I was trying to understand about this site, the Audi site is and you explained it well, so there's no rental income. So obviously, prices will be a lot lower because it's not yielding. But then I wonder because it was an operational factory not so long ago, whether if you compare it to other, let's say, real old brownfields, like we visited recently from CTP and also VGP, which have to be completely deconstructed. Can you say about what percentage would have to be deconstructed? Is it a total deconstruction? Or would you be able to use buildings as they are?
Therefore -- let's say, like I said, we signed NDAs, and I don't know the details of the site. But if you look at the location of the site, question is, what will you be able to do there? It's in the middle of Brussels, don't forget it. It's not in the middle of nowhere, let's say, like you have some brownfields. And I think you referred to Germany, where you have some brownfields, let's say, on the country side, this is a brownfield in the middle of Brussels, just the other side for people who sometimes take the Eurostar to Brussels, it's just the other side of Brussels South. So it's in city, it's an inner city location. It's not a brownfield, a big industrial brownfield somewhere in the middle.
Then we have one more person in the queue, which is coming from Frederic from Kepler.
Just a few questions on my side. Maybe the first one, can you comment a bit on the acceleration of the revaluation from appraiser in Q3 versus ETRA?
I don't think Frederic, that is a real acceleration. The underlying it's in absolute terms, it was a bit higher the revaluation, and in total, it was let's say, 0.5% for the first -- plus 0.5% for the first 9 months. But what you see is in terms of trends is that the underlying portfolio has been year-to-date flat in terms of ERV, in terms of yields applied and that what you see is either we had a small minus in Belgium because we had a bit more vacancy in Belgium, but we could do more pluses through active portfolio management by leasing up vacant space, by capturing rent reversion, by doing small upgrades and it's really the plus you see is really through active portfolio management.
Can you comment maybe on the ERV evolution year-on-year in your respective market?
ERV has been year-to-date flat.
And what's your view going forward regarding ERV? Because if you have a flat portfolio valuation, I mean, in terms of yield and flat ERV going forward, is your portfolio in organic terms going to underperform the inflation, I would say?
No, that's something we don't think because if you look at the supply-demand dynamic, that's looking favorable over the long term. Yes, there is a bit lower demand today, but also construction start has slowed down massively. There is still a lot of land scarcity. And we believe that after the strong rise in ERVs over the last couple of years, we have now -- we are going out because of the short-term market backdrop a bit through a stabilization phase in the short term. And then in the midterm in the, let's say, 1 to 2 years, we should -- for the next 1 to 2 years, we think it should grow again in line with inflation. And beyond that, we definitely believe it will grow with inflation plus because of the supply demand dynamics and because of the scarcity element that is at play.
Maybe just 3 small question just on the corporate governance. I'm sorry to ask, but is there any news regarding new member for De Pauw family in the Board?
Well, let's say, there is not news yet, but we can say like we mentioned before that, let's say, Tony will be replaced by somebody of the family by the Annual Shareholders' Meeting in April. And so at that moment, he has to be replaced and he will be replaced and the family is now preparing and is looking internally who will take this role. And let's say, as from the moment that is finalized, we will come with the results. But indeed, they are well preparing it, and he will be replaced by a new family member in April.
Okay. Then a question, you saw probably there was a big deal in the Netherlands, DSV being the seller of a large portfolio for, I think, was close to EUR 300 million plus. Have you looked at the portfolio? And why haven't you made a move if this is the case?
Like I had to say to Wim, when we are looking at the file, we have to sign NDAs. And as having signed an NDA, we cannot comment on running tenders.
Okay. So it's not over just in the race.
I have not, I think me, like you, we have not seen a result in the market. So I think it is not done. It is not finalized yet if I look into the press. But indeed, we have to follow the rules.
No, absolutely. I wonder -- I know too much on that, but just...
It should be not logic for such a building, we should not look at it. Of course, in our -- and that's in our existing markets, we look at every deal and sometimes we go deeper, sometimes we go not deeper. That's the difference between our existing markets and the other 20 markets in Europe.
Okay. Clear. And then maybe a very last one, but that could be a recurring question in the coming quarter as well. But you are obviously becoming bigger and bigger today with the portfolio of EUR 8.5 billion, you want to reach obviously EUR 10 billion at some point in time. I'm just willing to know because in the past, of course, adding EUR 500 million out of a portfolio of EUR 6 billion, EUR 7 billion, EUR 8 billion is relatively consequent. But as you grow, adding only EUR 500 million will not move too much the needle, still a big advancement, but not moving too much the needle.
Just wanted to pick your brain on what you think going forward? And is your current geographical footprint enough to maybe as a plan to grow much more aggressively in the years to come? Long question, sorry.
In any way, the existing markets by adding France and Germany, the market is -- our market is big enough to go above, let's say, the EUR 10 billion. That's what the idea was we go from the Netherlands, from the Benelux and Romania to -- we add France and Germany. So -- and with these 2 new markets, we can easily go above EUR 10 billion, and we don't need any new markets to do that. And indeed, we have an auto financing capacity of EUR 500 million.
This EUR 500 million is what we can already do each year, standard, without impacting our net debt to EBITDA because we have, let's say, round numbers, EUR 100 million of retained earnings, EUR 100 million of scrip dividend and EUR 50 million, give or take, contribution in kind each year, that's EUR 250 million with including leverage, you can already invest around EUR 500 million at the current returns. We invest without impacting your net debt to EBITDA. So that's a very good model.
And also do not forget that, yes, in the past, let's say, for the last 20, 25 years until the start of this growth plan, we were more dependent on volume growth, but with a connotation profitable volume growth, of course. But now as from this plan, and that's what we try to explain over the last 2 years already is that to create further value and value being defined as earnings per share, consistent earnings per share growth and realizing strong total returns on a risk-adjusted basis then you need to blend. That's the slogan of our growth plan is just not because of it, it's because it's actually necessary to create further value in this market with higher cost of capital and with higher cost of capital and with the market going through a normalization phase.
But the good thing is we will then be dependent on not on one driver, but on multiple drivers. We should not only look at what's outside WDP, and yes, that external growth we will continue to do and will be a very important element, preferably pre-lease developments supplemented by value-add acquisitions, but we also need to look at what's in front of us and what's in front of us is a portfolio of more than 8 million square meters, which is under-rented and all of which you can repeating your words extracts more through indexation, rent reversion, sustainability linked upgrades, upgrading of buildings, energy investments. And so it will be a combination of internal and external growth, and that's how we see also the way forward. And this in a bigger geographical market by adding -- having added France and Germany.
But for us, it's not going about going from as fast as possible to EUR 10 billion, EUR 11 billion, EUR 12 billion. No, it's about -- it's not about growth, it's about profitable growth, profitable growth, earnings per share growth.
Absolutely.
And if we finalize this with EUR 9 million, we do it with EUR 9 billion.
Thank you, Frederic. We have 3 more written questions that we will go over to. The first one is coming from [ Shita ] from Deutsche Bank. So as we mentioned, there were 2 projects with a delay due to the congestion of the electricity grid. Is there any further risk that we currently see in the existing pipeline and execution that could have an impact on the timely execution of the overall pipeline?
No, those are the 2. Just those 2 grid connection.
Next question is coming from Nadir from UBS. How confident are we that the occupancy indeed have bottomed out in the second quarter following the 10 bps improvement we saw in Q3. We saw a similar plus 10 bps rise in Q1, which was followed by minus 80 bps in the second quarter.
But I want to add that minus 80 bps in Q2 was largely guided well in advance because last year -- 1 year ago at the Q3 results, we already warned for that because we said that we had some notices in the existing portfolio end of last year in Q3, which are some units falling vacant in Q2 and that would mark the bottom in the occupancy rate. Well, that has happened. And based on, as Joost explained, based on our conversations, which have only now started after summer with clients for '26, we see already the normal retention rate of 90%, and we are confident in our message. We can confirm that message that we see the occupancy rate of 97% having bottomed out at Q2.
And plus 10 basis points are just mathematically. They are just because we added new rented space, we bought something during Q3, and we delivered some projects. So based on those extra buildings fully let, automatically, let's say, your occupancy goes up. So as a matter of fact, it was stable, but the 10 basis points are thanks to acquisitions and finalized developments.
And then we have a final question from Michelle Plick, who is asking whether we see any opportunities as a result of the increasing congestion on European highways from multimodal locations, so along railroads because of tax measures that could be taken by public authorities.
Yes, Michelle. I think everybody still hopes already for more than 20 years that railroad will be the future or at least part of the future, but it stays very difficult. It's not flexible. It's not -- it still stays difficult in Europe. It's not one Europe. And I think today, it still works like so many years on fixed lines on long distances, for example, from Belgium to Italy, through the Alps or from Belgium to Romania. Long-term fixed distances with fixed full trains, and you always need a full train on a fixed distances.
So it will not help congestion, let's say, between Antwerp and Limburg because there, for example, you cannot work with railroads. So yes, it can have a puzzle, but it stays very limited and see the results of Lineas that also it's one of the biggest cargo airlines in Europe, and it stays very, very difficult. I think then there is more to say and there is more flexibility in -- along the water with container terminals along waterways.
And with that said, there are no further questions at this time. So Joost, unless you have any concluding remarks.
Thank you all for listening. And I think we can say that we finalized '25 as promised, and we just started up '26. And let's focus on that, and we will come with the first outlook at our full year results at the end of January. And in the meantime, we will focus on our clients and our operations. But anyhow, our balance sheet is ready for the future.
Thank you, and see you all soon.
Warehouses De Pauw — Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Financial data from Warehouses De Pauw
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Mar '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue | 754 754 |
11%
11%
100%
|
|
| - Direct Costs | 94 94 |
2%
2%
12%
|
|
| Gross Profit | 660 660 |
13%
13%
88%
|
|
| - Selling and Administrative Expenses | 59 59 |
13%
13%
8%
|
|
| - Research and Development Expense | - - |
-
-
|
|
| EBITDA | 643 643 |
12%
12%
85%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 17 17 |
8%
8%
2%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 625 625 |
13%
13%
83%
|
|
| Net Profit | 557 557 |
6%
6%
74%
|
|
In millions EUR.
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Warehouses De Pauw Stock News
Company Profile
Warehouses De Pauw SCA is real estate investment trust. It engages in the development, and lease of logistic and semi-industrial real estate properties. The firm offers storage and distribution facilities for logistics, industrial, and production purposes. It operates through the following geographical segments: Belgium, Netherlands, France, and Romania. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Wolvertem, Belgium.
StocksGuide Premium
| Head office | Belgium |
| CEO | Mr. Uwents |
| Employees | 145 |
| Founded | 1971 |
| Website | www.wdp.eu |


