ageas Stock price
Compare with Peer Group
📊 Peer Group
📈 What is it?
The peer group consists of the companies with the most similar business model. They serve as a benchmark for putting a stock into context.
🧮 How is it selected?
Based on similarity of business model, meaning companies from the same industry with comparable products and a similar customer base. That's the only way to compare apples to apples.
🏛️ Why does it matter?
Whether a stock is cheap or expensive is best judged by comparison. A P/E of 18 or an EV/FCF of 20 can look cheap or expensive depending on the yardstick. The peer group gives you the most accurate one: companies with a similar business model that operate under the same conditions.
🎯 What does it mean for investors?
When a metric sits below the peer average, the stock is valued more cheaply relative to its competitors, and above the average more expensively. A discount to the peer group can be an opportunity, but it can also have a reason (for example lower growth). The comparison is a starting point, not a verdict.
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Invest better with AI
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👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
👉 Clear answers to your questions
Invest better with AI
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👉 More detailed insights
👉 Exclusive perspectives on opportunities & risks
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Key metrics
📘 Market Capitalization
📈 What is it?
Market capitalization shows how much a company is currently worth on the stock market.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps classify companies by size (Large, Mid, Small Cap) and indicates their market presence and relative stability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Large-cap companies tend to be more stable, often pay dividends, but may grow more slowly.
- Smaller firms may offer higher growth potential but come with more volatility.
- Market capitalization is a useful indicator of company size — but not a measure of whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued.
📘 Enterprise Value (EV)
📈 What is it?
Enterprise Value represents the total cost to acquire a company — including its debt and excluding its cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(= Market Cap + Net Debt)
🏛️ Why is it important?
EV gives a more complete picture of a company's value than market cap alone and is used in key valuation ratios like EV/FCF or EV/Sales.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Enterprise Value shows the true cost of buying a company, including all financial obligations.
- It is more accurate than just looking at market cap, especially when comparing companies with different levels of debt or cash.
- Professional investors prefer EV-based multiples because they better reflect the company’s full financial footprint.
📘 Net Debt
📈 What is it?
Net Debt shows how much debt remains after subtracting a company’s available cash reserves.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It indicates how dependent a company is on borrowed money and how easily it can service its debt in the short term.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low or negative net debt signals financial strength and flexibility.
- Companies with strong cash positions are better positioned in crises.
- High net debt increases financial risk — especially in environments with rising interest rates or economic downturns.
📘 Cash
📈 What is it?
Cash represents all liquid assets a company can access immediately — including cash, bank deposits, and short-term investments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It reflects a company’s financial flexibility and resilience — enabling investments, buybacks, or buffer in downturns.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A strong cash position means greater room for maneuver and crisis resistance.
- Cash-rich companies can invest, pay down debt, or repurchase shares.
- But excess idle cash might indicate a lack of growth opportunities.
📘 Shares Outstanding
📈 What is it?
Shares outstanding represent the total number of a company’s shares currently held by investors — excluding treasury stock.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s the basis for key metrics like Earnings Per Share (EPS), Market Capitalization, or the Price/Earnings ratio (P/E).
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Fewer shares in circulation typically increase earnings per share — making each share more valuable.
- Share buybacks reduce the number of shares and boost per-share metrics.
- Issuing new shares does the opposite — diluting shareholder value and lowering per-share figures.
📘 Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)
📈 What is it?
The P/E ratio shows how many times a company's earnings per share are reflected in its current share price — in other words, how "expensive" the stock appears relative to its profits.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The P/E ratio is one of the most widely used valuation metrics. It helps investors assess whether a stock appears cheap or expensive compared to its earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
📊 P/E (TTM) = Based on earnings from the last 12 months (Trailing Twelve Months):🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/E may indicate undervaluation — or signal underlying issues.
- A high P/E may reflect strong growth expectations — or an overvalued stock.
📘 Price-to-Sales Ratio (P/S)
📈 What is it?
The P/S ratio shows how much investors are paying for $1 of the company’s revenue – regardless of profitability.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/S is especially useful for evaluating growth companies or businesses not yet profitable. It reflects how the market values the company’s sales.
🧮 Calculation
Market Cap = €15.61b | Revenue (TTM) = €11.14b
Market Cap = €15.61b | Estimated Revenue = €11.00b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low P/S may indicate undervaluation — or low profitability.
- A high P/S can reflect strong growth expectations — or excessive optimism.
- Especially helpful when evaluating companies where profits are low, volatile, or negative.
📘 Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)
📈 What is it?
EV/Sales shows how much investors are paying for $1 of revenue — considering not just equity, but also debt and cash. It’s the capital structure–adjusted version of the P/S ratio.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It’s ideal for comparing companies with different levels of debt. It reflects a company's true cost relative to its revenue.
🧮 Calculation
Enterprise Value = €20.42b | Revenue (TTM) = €11.14b
Enterprise Value = €20.42b | Forward Revenue = €11.00b
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EV/Sales allows for capital structure–neutral company comparisons.
- A lower ratio may indicate undervaluation; a higher one may signal strong growth expectations or overvaluation.
- Especially helpful when evaluating high-growth companies with low or negative earnings.
📘 Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow (EV/FCF)
📈 What is it?
EV/FCF shows how many years it would take for a company to "pay back" its enterprise value using its free cash flow.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It focuses on real cash generation, ignoring accounting noise — ideal for assessing profitability and value based on liquidity, not earnings.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low EV/FCF may signal undervaluation and strong cash generation.
- A high EV/FCF might reflect weak recent cash flow or aggressive growth expectations.
- Best suited for stable, mature businesses with predictable free cash flows.
📘 Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B)
📈 What is it?
The P/B ratio compares a company’s market value to its book value — showing how much investors are paying for each dollar of net assets.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
P/B is commonly used for asset-heavy industries like banks or industrials. It helps assess whether a stock is trading above or below its net asset value.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A P/B below 1 may signal undervaluation — or weak profitability.
- A P/B above 1 implies the market expects future value creation (e.g., brand, IP, growth).
- Best used for companies with tangible assets and strong balance sheets.
📘 Dividend per Share (DPS)
📈 What is it?
Dividend per Share shows how much cash a company pays out to shareholders for each share they own – usually on an annual or quarterly basis.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
DPS is the absolute value of the payout per share – crucial for income-focused investors and dividend strategies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable or growing DPS often signals a strong, shareholder-friendly business.
- DPS alone doesn’t tell you how attractive the payout is – the stock price also matters (→ see Dividend Yield).
- Long-term dividend growth is often a hallmark of high-quality companies – like the dividend aristocrats.
📘 Dividend Yield
📈 What is it?
Dividend yield shows how large a company’s dividend is in relation to its current share price.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It allows investors to compare dividend payouts across stocks, regardless of price or payout size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A stable yield can reflect reliable distributions.
- Comparing 1Y and 5Y yield shows whether dividend growth keeps pace with stock price appreciation.
- A low yield isn’t always negative – it can signal strong past performance or growth focus.
📘 Dividend Growth
📈 What is it?
Dividend growth shows how much a company has increased its dividend per share over time.
🧮 How is it calculated?
5Y: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
🏛️ Why is it important?
Consistently rising dividends are often a sign of financial strength and shareholder orientation – especially relevant for long-term investors.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stable dividend growth is a sign of sustainable earning power.
- High dividend growth can significantly boost your total return:
- If a company pays $1 in dividends and increases it by 15% annually over 5 years, you’ll receive $2 per share in year 5 – twice as much as at the start!
📘 Payout Ratio
📈 What is it?
The payout ratio shows what percentage of a company’s earnings (per share) is distributed to shareholders as dividends.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess whether the dividend is sustainable – especially in relation to the company’s profitability.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low payout ratio means the company retains more earnings for reinvestment – typical for growth companies.
- A moderate payout (e.g. 25–50%) indicates a healthy balance between returns and reinvestment.
- High payout ratios may seem attractive but can carry risk if earnings decline.
📘 Consecutive Dividend Increases
📈 What is it?
This metric shows how many consecutive years a company has raised its dividend per share – without any cuts or pauses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
(Special dividends are not considered.)
🏛️ Why is it important?
A long track record of increases reflects financial strength, consistency, and shareholder commitment.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A long dividend increase streak builds confidence – especially in volatile markets.
- Such companies are seen as reliable and income-friendly investments.
- The longer the streak, the stronger the company’s dividend discipline.
📘 Revenue
📈 What is it?
Revenue shows how much a company earns in total from selling its products and services – the gross income before any costs are deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Revenue is one of the key figures to assess a company’s size, market position, and growth potential.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing revenue indicates rising demand and can be an early signal of future earnings growth.
- Comparing actual and expected revenue reveals trends in the market environment and analyst sentiment.
- Note: Strong revenue alone isn’t enough – margins and profitability matter just as much.
📘 EBITDA
📈 What is it?
EBITDA stands for “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization.” It reflects a company’s operating profit before the effects of financing, taxes, and accounting depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBITDA is widely used to evaluate a company’s operating performance – especially across capital-intensive sectors or international comparisons.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high or growing EBITDA indicates strong operational profitability – independent of taxes, interest, or accounting methods.
- It’s especially useful for comparing companies across sectors or geographies.
- Important: EBITDA is not a net income figure – it excludes key costs like depreciation and interest.
📘 EBIT
📈 What is it?
EBIT stands for “Earnings Before Interest and Taxes.” It reflects a company’s operating profit after depreciation, but before interest and tax expenses.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT is a core profitability metric that shows how well the company performs in its main business operations – independent of capital structure and tax environment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT indicates strong profitability from the company’s core business – before financial and tax effects.
- It allows better comparison between companies with different debt levels or tax structures.
- Compared to EBITDA, EBIT already accounts for depreciation and reflects capital intensity more clearly.
📘 Net Income
📈 What is it?
Net income is the company’s total profit – the amount left after all expenses, taxes, interest, and depreciation have been deducted.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the most comprehensive measure of a company’s profitability – showing how much actual profit remains after all business and financing costs.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growing net income indicates that the company is managing all of its costs efficiently.
- It directly influences valuation metrics like P/E ratio and the company’s dividend capacity.
- Over time, net income trends reveal how resilient and profitable the business model really is.
📘 Free Cash Flow (FCF)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow shows how much actual cash remains after a company covers its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF reflects a company’s real financial strength – regardless of accounting profits. It shows how much flexibility a company has for dividends, share buybacks, or debt reduction.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High free cash flow means the company generates real, usable cash – independent of reported net income.
- It’s often the most reliable base for sustainable dividends and buybacks.
- Declining FCF can be an early warning sign – even when profits appear stable.
📘 Revenue Growth
📈 What is it?
Revenue growth shows how much a company’s sales have changed compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on forward projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected revenue ÷ Revenue in prior year − 1) × 100
Forward growth is based on analyst estimates for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Rising revenue signals growing demand, business expansion, and market share gains – especially important for growth-oriented companies.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Growth is the engine of long-term value creation – especially in tech and growth sectors.
- What matters is not just current growth, but its sustainability.
- Forward projections reflect whether analysts expect continued momentum – or a slowdown.
📘 EBITDA Growth
📈 What is it?
EBITDA growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has increased or decreased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBITDA ÷ EBITDA from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Growing EBITDA indicates improving operational profitability – regardless of financing or accounting effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Strong EBITDA growth signals operational efficiency and scalability – especially during growth phases.
- EBITDA growth can be an early indicator of margin and earnings expansion – but should be assessed alongside revenue and EBIT.
📘 EBIT Growth
📈 What is it?
EBIT growth shows how much a company’s operating profit (after depreciation, but before interest and taxes) has increased compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected EBIT ÷ EBIT from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate is based on analyst projections for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EBIT growth is a direct indicator of a company’s business performance – taking into account capital intensity through depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Rising EBIT signals improving operating profitability – even after accounting for depreciation.
- It’s especially important for evaluating companies with significant capital expenditures.
- Combined with revenue and EBITDA growth, EBIT growth provides a well-rounded view of operational progress.
📘 Net Income Growth
📈 What is it?
Net income growth shows how much a company’s bottom-line profit has increased or decreased compared to the previous year – both on a trailing basis (TTM) and based on analyst projections.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Forward = (Expected net income ÷ Net income from prior year − 1) × 100
The forward estimate reflects analysts’ expectations for the current fiscal year.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net income is the ultimate measure of profitability. Growing net income signals stronger efficiency, cost control, and sustainable earnings power.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Stronger net income boosts valuation, dividend potential, and investor confidence.
- If profits stall while revenue grows, it may signal margin pressure.
📘 Free Cash Flow Growth
📈 What is it?
Free cash flow (FCF) growth shows how a company’s available cash – after covering operating expenses and capital expenditures – has changed compared to the previous year.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Free cash flow reflects real financial strength. Growing FCF indicates more flexibility for dividends, share buybacks, and reinvestment.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Declining FCF may point to rising investments, increasing costs, or weaker operating performance.
- Especially for dividend investors, FCF growth is critical – since dividends are paid from actual available cash.
- A negative trend isn't always bad, but it deserves closer attention.
📘 Gross Margin
📈 What is it?
Gross margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains after deducting the direct costs of goods sold (like materials and production). It represents the company’s “raw profit” before fixed costs, taxes, and interest.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Or simply: Gross Margin = Gross Profit ÷ Revenue × 100
🏛️ Why is it important?
Gross margin indicates how efficiently a company can produce or procure what it sells. It is a key measure of product-level profitability and pricing power.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high gross margin suggests strong pricing power and efficient production.
- Falling margins may signal rising input costs or competitive pressure.
- Compared to peers, gross margin offers insights into the quality of a business model.
📘 EBITDA Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBITDA margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.It reflects operating efficiency without being distorted by financing or accounting factors.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBITDA margin reveals how much operating income a company generates per dollar of revenue – independent of capital structure and tax effects.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBITDA margin reflects strong core profitability – before accounting distortions.
- It allows for effective comparisons across companies and sectors.
- A stable or growing margin signals efficient cost control and business scalability.
📘 EBIT Margin
📈 What is it?
The EBIT margin shows what percentage of revenue remains as operating profit after depreciation but before interest and taxes.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
The EBIT margin reflects a company’s core profitability while accounting for capital intensity (e.g. machinery, infrastructure). It’s especially useful for comparing businesses with different levels of depreciation.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high EBIT margin shows that the company remains efficient even after factoring in depreciation.
- It’s especially relevant for capital-intensive industries.
- Stable or rising EBIT margins over time are a strong indicator of pricing power and business quality.
📘 Net Margin
📈 What is it?
Net margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as bottom-line profit after deducting all costs, interest, taxes, and depreciation.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
Net margin reflects a company’s overall efficiency – across operations, financing, and taxation. It shows how much actual profit is generated from each dollar of revenue.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high net margin means the company is not only strong operationally but also manages financing and taxes efficiently.
- Peer comparisons reveal business quality and competitiveness.
- Declining margins despite revenue growth can be a red flag for rising costs or inefficiencies.
📘 Free cash flow margin
📈 What is it?
The free cash flow (FCF) margin shows how much of a company’s revenue remains as actual free cash after covering all operating expenses and capital expenditures.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This margin reflects the true liquidity generated by the business – independent of accounting rules or depreciation. It’s especially relevant for dividends, buybacks, and reinvestment decisions.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high FCF margin means a company consistently generates strong cash flow.
- It’s a positive signal for financial stability and shareholder returns.
- The long-term trend is key – a declining margin may indicate rising investments or weakening operating efficiency.
📘 Equity Ratio
📈 What is it?
The equity ratio indicates what portion of a company’s total assets is financed by shareholders’ equity – in other words, how much it relies on its own capital.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
A high equity ratio reflects financial strength and stability, especially during downturns. It’s a key indicator of a company’s solvency and long-term risk profile.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Companies with high equity ratios are generally more resilient and less dependent on external debt.
- Low equity ratios can signal higher risk or aggressive financial strategies.
- Important: Always assess the equity ratio in combination with the return on equity (ROE). This shows not just how stable the company is – but also how efficiently it uses shareholder capital.
📘 Return on Equity (ROE)
📈 What is it?
Return on equity (ROE) shows how efficiently a company uses its shareholders’ equity to generate profit. In other words: how much net income is earned per dollar of equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROE is a core profitability metric. It helps investors understand whether a company delivers attractive returns on the capital provided by its shareholders.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROE indicates that the company is using its capital efficiently and profitably.
- It’s especially meaningful for capital-intensive businesses or firms with high equity bases.
- Important: A very high ROE can also result from high debt levels – always interpret it alongside the equity ratio to assess financial health.
📘 Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
📈 What is it?
ROCE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from its total capital – including both equity and interest-bearing debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It evaluates the return on all capital employed, regardless of how it’s financed.
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROCE is ideal for comparing companies with different financing structures. It shows how well management uses capital to create value for both shareholders and creditors.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROCE means the company uses its capital efficiently – regardless of whether it's funded by debt or equity.
- The higher the ROCE compared to peers, the more value the company creates with its invested capital.
- Especially relevant for capital-intensive sectors like industrials, energy, or infrastructure.
📘 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
📈 What is it?
ROIC measures how efficiently a company generates returns from the capital invested in its core operations – regardless of whether the capital comes from equity or debt.
🧮 How is it calculated?
- NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Taxes
- Invested Capital = Operating assets minus non-interest-bearing liabilities
🏛️ Why is it important?
ROIC is one of the most accurate indicators of capital efficiency. Unlike return on equity, it is not distorted by leverage and shows how much value is created for all capital providers.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high ROIC shows how effectively a company uses the capital that is truly invested in its core operations.
- Unlike ROCE, ROIC focuses only on the capital that is actively used to run the business – and that requires a return (i.e. interest-bearing).
- Especially useful when comparing companies with large amounts of excess cash or non-interest-bearing liabilities – giving a more realistic picture of capital efficiency.
📘 Leverage Ratio (Debt-to-Equity)
📈 What is it?
The leverage ratio indicates how much a company relies on interest-bearing debt (such as loans and bonds) relative to its shareholders’ equity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
This ratio helps assess a company’s financial structure and risk profile. High leverage can enhance returns – but also increases exposure to interest rate changes and financial stress.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A low leverage ratio signals financial strength and independence.
- A higher ratio can improve returns in good times but increases risk during downturns or rising interest rate periods.
- 👉 Always interpret in the context of industry, capital intensity, and interest rate environment.
📘 Earnings per share (EPS)
📈 What is it?
Earnings per Share (EPS) shows how much profit is attributable to a single share – and is one of the most important metrics for evaluating a company's performance.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The diluted share count reflects potential new shares that could be issued through options, convertible bonds, or other rights.
🏛️ Why is it important?
EPS is the basis for many key valuation metrics like P/E ratio, PEG ratio, or payout ratio. It enables comparisons of profitability across companies, regardless of their size.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- EPS captures per-share profitability and is especially useful for comparisons over time or with analyst estimates.
- Rising EPS may signal consistent growth or share buybacks.
- Important: Always use diluted EPS for more realistic valuations – especially in companies with stock-based compensation.
📘 Free cash flow per share (FCF per share)
📈 What is it?
Free Cash Flow per Share shows how much free cash flow a company generates per outstanding share – after investments, but before dividends or debt repayments.
🧮 How is it calculated?
Free cash flow is calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx).
🏛️ Why is it important?
FCF per Share reveals how much real cash is available per share – useful for dividends, buybacks, or reducing debt. Unlike net income, free cash flow is harder to manipulate and often seen as a more reliable metric.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- High FCF per share signals strong financial flexibility.
- It shows how much capital the company can effectively reinvest or return to shareholders.
- Particularly relevant for dividend payers and capital-efficient businesses.
📘 Short interest
📈 What is it?
Short interest indicates how many shares of a company are currently sold short – that is, borrowed and sold by investors who expect the price to decline.
🧮 How is it calculated?
It reflects the percentage of a company’s shares that are being shorted relative to the total shares available.
🏛️ Why is it important?
Short interest serves as a sentiment indicator: A high value may signal skepticism or bearish expectations – but also increases the potential for a short squeeze if prices rise unexpectedly.
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- Low short interest usually indicates market confidence in the company.
- High short interest can be a warning sign – or an opportunity if sentiment shifts.
- Especially relevant in volatile markets or ahead of key earnings releases.
📘 Employees
📈 What is it?
The employee count shows how many people a company employs worldwide – offering insights into its size, structure, and business model.
🧮 How is it calculated?
🏛️ Why is it important?
It helps assess operational scale, labor intensity, and cost structure. Combined with revenue and profit, it enables key metrics like revenue per employee or productivity.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high headcount can signal operational complexity – but also significant growth capacity.
- Revenue per employee is a key indicator of efficiency.
- Especially useful for comparing tech, industrial, or service-heavy companies.
📘 Turnover per employee
📈 What is it?
Revenue per employee indicates how much revenue a company generates on average per employee – a key measure of efficiency and productivity.
🧮 How is it calculated?
The employee count is typically taken from the most recent annual report.
🏛️ Why is it important?
This metric helps compare business models – especially between labor-intensive and technology-driven companies. A high value suggests automation, operational efficiency, or strong value creation per head.
🧮 Calculation
🎯 What does this mean for investors?
- A high revenue per employee indicates a scalable and margin-strong business model.
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ageas Stock Analysis
Analyst Opinions
16 Analysts have issued a ageas forecast:
Analyst Opinions
16 Analysts have issued a ageas forecast:
ageas Events
Past Events
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AUG
27
Q2 2026 Earnings Call
about one month ago
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AUG
3
ageas SA/NV, Maybank Ageas Holdings Berhad - M&A Call
about 2 months ago
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FEB
25
Q4 2025 Earnings Call
7 months ago
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DEC
8
ageas SA/NV, AG Insurance SA/NV - M&A Call
10 months ago
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StocksGuide Free
ageas — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to this Ageas conference call. I am pleased to present Mr. Hans De Cuyper, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Wim Guilliams, Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions] Please note that the conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand over to Mr. Hans De Cuyper and Mr. Wim Guilliams. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you all for dialing into this conference call and for joining the presentation of Ageas' results over the first half year of 2026. In the first half of the year, Ageas delivered strong growth across both Life and Non-Life with inflows up 17% at constant exchange rate, supported by excellent commercial momentum in Life and the inorganic strategic initiatives we took last year.
Before diving into the commercial performance, let me clarify one point on comparability. As usual, growth rates are presented at constant foreign exchange rates. For H1 2026, where relevant, we also refer to figures at constant scope, excluding the additional 2 months of contribution from the extra 25% in AG Insurance following the closing of the transaction in late April as well as the contribution from esure and Saga, which was not included in the half year 2025 results. This provides a like-for-like view of the underlying business performance. At constant scope, the total inflows were up 8% compared to last year.
In Life, we continue to see strong commercial momentum with inflows increasing by more than 12% or more than 9% at constant scope across all segments. Belgium delivered another excellent performance with inflows up 28% or 14% at constant scope, supported by successful commercial campaigns in both unit-linked and guaranteed. Europe recorded very strong growth as well of 41% at constant exchange rate, driven by Turkiye and Portugal.
In Asia, inflows increased by 4%, supported by the successful jump-start campaign in China, where inflows grew by 3% and by a strong commercial performance in Thailand with growth of 9%. Our emerging markets also continued to deliver attractive growth, particularly in India and the Philippines, where inflows increased by 16% and 9%, respectively.
Non-Life also continued to deliver solid growth with inflows up more than 26% or an increase of 6% compared to last year at constant scope. Belgium and Europe both recorded growth of 5% at constant FX and constant scope, supported by pricing actions, portfolio growth and strong momentum across markets. In Asia, inflows remained broadly stable, while our reinsurance business once again demonstrated its strength, delivering strong growth of 28%, driven by new business and the continued diversification of the portfolio.
When looking at our results, Ageas delivered a strong net operating result of EUR 776 million in the first half of the year, translating into a return on equity of 15.8%. This performance was driven by excellent Life results across all segments and resilient Non-Life results despite the impact from adverse weather. Life delivered an excellent performance with a net operating result of EUR 629 million, significantly above last year. This was driven by a strong commercial momentum across all segments. The growth in net operating result was driven by a stronger operating insurance service result in Belgium and Europe, complemented by a solid contribution from Asia, further supported by higher investment results.
When looking at Non-Life, despite severe weather events in Belgium and Portugal, our Non-Life business delivered a resilient net operating result of EUR 240 million, supported by disciplined underwriting and healthy technical margins. Based on the strong performance delivered in the first half of the year and the continued progress of our strategic transformation, we are raising our full year 2026 net operating result guidance to above EUR 1.95 billion. This updated guidance includes the EUR 450 million of net capital gain and reflects a lower contribution of around EUR 30 million from Malaysia and the sale of our stake in Etiqa. The guidance also includes the assumption of a full year weather impact of around 3 percentage points on the combined ratio.
Our operational resilience is equally reflected in our capital generation and cash creation. Operational capital generation remained strong at EUR 1.1 billion, while we now anticipate a cash upstream above EUR 1.4 billion for the full year 2026, significantly above our original guidance of EUR 1.2 billion and 49% higher than last year. This increased guidance reflects a substantially higher upstream from Asia, driven by exceptionally higher dividends from China and Thailand. This strong cash generation provides a strong foundation for shareholders' returns and future growth investments. At the same time, we remain committed to our dividend policy and will pay an interim dividend of EUR 1.5 per share in December.
The first half of 2026 once again demonstrated the strength of Ageas. Our diversified exposure across Life and Non-Life, developed and emerging markets and a balanced mix of consolidated businesses and partnerships enables us to remain resilient and continue delivering value through different market cycles.
To conclude, let me briefly reflect on the progress we have made so far on Elevate27. Ageas accelerated its data and AI agenda, deploying solutions that enhance customer service and operational efficiency across key markets. Ageas' data and AI agenda focuses on 2 main areas: strengthening the foundations by upgrading data platforms and relying on strong governance for responsible AI to ensure a future-proof architecture that maximizes AI value and capture value from data and AI use cases. Ageas is deploying more than 300 use cases with about 40 identified as shareable and impactful across the group. Of these, 35% target claims and fraud, 20% focus on underwriting, another 20% improve customer experience and the remainder are transversal use cases, among others in IT.
Halfway through Elevate27, we have also significantly strengthened Ageas through targeted acquisitions, disciplined portfolio management and consistent operational delivery. From the 25% step-up to full ownership of AG Insurance and expanding our presence in the U.K. through our acquisitions of Saga and esure to unlocking value through the Etiqa transaction while investing in future growth opportunities in China through our stake in Taiping Pension, all these actions illustrate the disciplined way in which we are executing our strategy, creating a more diversified, more scalable and increasingly cash-generative group that is better equipped to deliver sustainable growth and shareholder value over the long term.
Before handing over to Wim, let me also briefly touch upon esure. The integration of esure is progressing well with key integration milestones achieved, including a new and integrated management team since 2025. On October 8, at our deep dive event in London, we will provide a comprehensive update on both the integration journey of esure as well as the progress we are making in delivering Elevate27.
With that, I will now hand over to Wim, who will take you through our results in more detail.
Thank you, Hans, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen, also from my side. As Hans mentioned, Ageas delivered a strong first half of 2026. The net operating result reached EUR 776 million, up 6% compared to last year despite a significantly higher level of weather-related claims in Belgium and Portugal, amounting to a total weather impact of EUR 180 million. This performance was driven by a strong Life result across all segments, resilient Non-Life earnings and excellent commercial momentum across the group. The Life net operating result was strongly up, plus 17% compared to last year, driven by an excellent insurance result, illustrating the quality of the business in all segments.
In Belgium, the Life net operating result was up plus 20% at constant scope, significantly higher than last year, driven by a higher operating insurance service result, further supported by net capital gains, resulting in a Life guaranteed margin of 106 basis points, up 14 basis points compared to last year. In Europe, the Life net operating result was up 33% compared to last year, driven by an excellent performance in both Turkiye and Portugal, thanks to a higher CSM release and a continued solid result on short-term life. In Asia, the Life net operating result increased with 6%, driven by a higher CSM release and a positive development in experience variances.
The CSM balance increased from EUR 9.4 billion at year-end '25 to EUR 11.1 billion at the end of June, driven by a strong operating CSM movement corresponding to a growth rate of 3.6% and further supported by the 25% step-up to full ownership of AG Insurance. Looking at the drivers of the Life value of new business, the present value of new business premium showed strong growth, up 15% at constant foreign exchange rate, driven by Belgium, Portugal and China. The group Life new business margin stood at 7.9%. This margin was mainly impacted by the new product mix in China and higher sales of invest products in Belgium. In Belgium, the new business margin is expected to recover towards normal levels by the end of '26.
Moving now to Non-Life. The reported group combined ratio stood at 95.2% compared to 92.1% last year. This increase was driven by a significantly higher weather impact, which added around 5 percentage points to the combined ratio compared with around 1 percentage point last year. Excluding weather, the underlying combined ratio remained strong, demonstrating the continued quality of the Non-Life portfolio. Despite a significant higher impact from adverse weather of around EUR 180 million, the Non-Life net operating result remained resilient, amounting to EUR 240 million.
The Non-Life net operating result in Belgium stood at EUR 75 million. As mentioned, the result was impacted by severe storms and hail in late May and June, which had an impact of EUR 59 million. Thanks to a well-diversified portfolio, the impact was partly offset. In Europe, the combined ratio increased compared to last year, mainly due to storms in Portugal at the beginning of the year. These weather events added 3.5 percentage points to the combined ratio compared to less than 1 percentage point last year. The weather impact was partially offset by the strong growth in the results in Accident & Health.
In Asia, the Non-Life net operating result increased mainly driven by Taiping Re, supported by an improved combined ratio and a stronger investment result. Finally, in reinsurance, the net operating result was also impacted by the severe weather in Belgium and Portugal, as shown in the results from group purchasing and from capital management. The combined ratio of the reinsurance third-party business, on the other hand, stood at a strong 82.1%, supported by strong business growth and favorable claims development. The Non-Life net operating result in reinsurance third-party business increased considerably. This growth was achieved in a softening CAT market, where we remain disciplined while selectively expanding into specialty lines where we see attractive risk return opportunities.
Let me now turn to the balance sheet and cash. Regarding the balance sheet evolution, our comprehensive equity increased by EUR 2.2 billion to EUR 19.7 billion. This was supported by the strong earnings contribution and a 25% step-up to full ownership of AG Insurance. Shareholders' equity stood at EUR 10.2 billion. Our cash position stood at a solid EUR 1.2 billion. The decrease compared with year-end '25 mainly reflects our dividend payment and the financing of the acquisition of the remaining 25% stake in AG Insurance, partly offset by higher dividend upstreams from our operating entities.
For the full year, cash remittances are expected to amount to more than EUR 1.4 billion, of which more than EUR 1.1 billion has already been received in the first half of 2026. This includes exceptionally high dividends from China and Thailand as well as increased remittances from other segments, highlighting our group's increased ability to convert earnings and capital generation into cash at group level.
To conclude, I would like to add a word on solvency and operational capital generation. The Solvency II ratio stood at 195% at the end of June, lower compared to year-end '25. The movement mainly reflects a number of previously flagged items. The closing of the Taiping Pension capital increase with an impact of around minus 3 percentage points, the end of the grandfathering of the FRESH instruments around minus 4 percentage points, the repayment of 2 debt instruments with an impact of minus 3 percentage points and the downgrade of the Belgian sovereign debt with an impact of around minus 8 percentage points. The insurance operations contributed plus 12 percentage points. And it is important to mention that the recently announced sale of our Malaysian activities will add 23 percentage points to the solvency at the moment of closing.
The solvency of the non-Solvency II scope companies stood at 230%. This mainly reflects the interest rate environment in China, the capital consumption linked with the strong new business growth and the increased equity exposure. Operational capital generation remained strong at EUR 1.1 billion, in line with last year's strong performance despite the impact from adverse weather. This demonstrates the resilience of the group capital generation capacity and the quality of the underlying operating performance.
In the Solvency II scope, operational capital generation proved resilient and increased compared with last year, reaching EUR 558 million despite the weather impact in Belgium and Portugal. In the non-Solvency II scope, operational capital generation stood at EUR 627 million. The operational free capital generation, including both the Solvency II, and non-Solvency II scope, amounted to EUR 484 million, impacted by an increased operational capital consumption in Belgium, Europe and China. I've now reached the end of my presentation, and we are ready to answer any questions you may have.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the introduction, and we now open the call for questions from the analysts. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Michael Huttner from Berenberg.
2. Question Answer
My 2 questions or if you like, a lot of questions for China, please, and well done for the extraordinary little Ageas getting bigger. So the first question, a little bit provocative is since you've obviously sold Malaysia, would you ever consider -- the reason I ask for that is I know the cash is good, but the growth is 4% or whatever in premiums. It looks lower than Belgium. I thought Asia was growth, but it really not growth. So I'm really missing something. And I wonder if you could kind of do a little mini deep dive into what's happening in China because it doesn't seem as strong as we'd like, and I don't understand it. Also, I was a little bit surprised was in guaranteed. I thought the growth would be in participating. Anyway, anything on China and well done for the results.
Okay. Thanks, Michael, for your question. On your first point, would you consider selling China? My answer is very short, no. I think we had the opportunity to have a very attractive valuation for Malaysia, where our partner also saw a future of Etiqa more integrated in the bank. And so that's why I think we went into the transaction with Maybank in Malaysia. This is a stand-alone event. So this is not changing our strategy and positioning for Asia. We are a group focus on Europe and Asia, and I absolutely continue to believe into the growth potential of the Asian region. On the growth of China, you're right that the top line growth was lower than in Life this time below Belgium. And I would more -- I would say, congratulate Belgium for that than complaining to China.
First of all, if you look, for instance, at the growth of technical liabilities in China, that is still going up with 10%. So this is a young company. So the relationship between new volumes and building up technical liabilities, which at the end of the day is your foundation for the margin and the results, is very different if you compare that between China and Belgium. So in that sense, the portfolio is growing nicely into the Chinese market. What has happened? Well, of course, we have the low interest rate environment, very well known to you, but we've also seen specifically in bancassurance that the regulator is asking for more market discipline by the insurers.
There is a very specific circular, Circular 65, that China has issued where you see that they want to better align your real economics on expansion and -- on expenses, sorry, and commissions with the pricing assumptions that you use in pricing your products, which is a move that we -- and you have heard CTIH saying that yesterday as well, it's a move that we support because at the end of the day, that will improve the quality of the business and the quality of the market. And that is something you see happening in China in general. And there is a move from volumes, both in agency and in bancassurance to quality of business activity levels of agents and so on.
With that, you know that my view on the future potential of the market has not changed. Aging population is an important topic in China, and I remain confident in the growth potential, both for the market, but definitely also for our business there. Your final comment is participation versus guaranteed, participation is part of guaranteed. So I think you have to combine the two.
The next question is coming from Andrew Baker from Goldman Sachs.
First one, just on the higher cash remittances for the year. I guess you highlight the high dividends from China and Thailand for '26. Were there any one-offs here? Or is it -- are these good levels that we can think about growth, I guess, going forward, so using as a base going forward? And then secondly, can you just help me think a little bit more about the year-on-year development of the operational free capital generation? I know you mentioned higher capital consumption driven by Belgium, Europe and China. But I guess the decline year-on-year is quite high. So are you able to give a bit more detail here? And again, how we should think about the development in the second half and just going forward more generally?
Andrew, I will take the first one, and I will give the second one to our CRO, Christophe. Indeed, we have raised the total upstreaming for the group from the guidance, EUR 1.2 billion in the beginning of the year, to EUR 1.4 billion now. And this EUR 200 million, you can almost fully link to China and Thailand. I think there is one-off effects in there. Clearly, also in China because if you look at the evolution of payout ratio, we see a slow and gradual growth. But that has delivered a lot higher number over the year also because of the tax effect. You know the change in the tax regulation that we have announced with EUR 300 million extra profit at the end of last year. And we see that now coming through also in the dividend.
So yes, indeed, there is some one-off effect in this. But we are aligned with the announcement I saw yesterday our partner making at China Taiping Insurance Holdings that they do expect a growing dividend towards the future, but please base that on, I would say, the historic evolution and not on that specific number that we have seen this year. Last for China, you know that we said that earlier. Together with our partner, we always keep the long-term view on solvency. And you know that this long-term view is impacted by the low interest rate environment. And that's also an important guidance for our dividend evolution. And similarly, we saw that increased dividend out of Thailand. I think also in there, there are some one-off effects. Can I give OFCG to Christophe?
Yes. So on the operational free capital generation, well, you can follow it on Slide 20. Of course, we have two elements there. We have the operational capital generation itself. There you see that we go from EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 1.06 billion, so a slight drop. Now, of course, you see that the general account is weighing a bit, but we have, of course, more debt compared to last year. So that weighs a bit there. And you see that the Solvency II scope is actually doing better. So that is helped by Belgium, but also growth in Turkiye, for example. And the non-Solvency II scope is also going down a bit. Even Thailand is doing relatively well in there. It's going up.
But the big driver there is China, where you do see a slight drop in the value of new business margins because of indeed the shift to more participating products, more short-term products. So overall, in the operational capital generation, a slight down. So what explains the fact that our operational free capital generation goes down from EUR 713 million to EUR 484 million, so about EUR 230 million, is indeed on the operational capital requirements. And there, you see compared to last year that indeed, on our Solvency II scope, we do lock in quite a lot more capital. Now there are also quite some -- so there are two things in there. There are one-offs in there, which are linked to asset management actions, and there is growth in there.
So for Belgium, it's mostly the first one. It's linked to long-term reinvestments in the first half of the year. On Europe, it's more growth. There are some shorter-term penalties and so on. I will not go into detail into that, but it's mainly the increase in the growth that we see over the first half year. Then on the non-Solvency II scope, it is relatively limited increase, but you also have two factors in there. You actually -- if you would do the same basis, we have an increase in our equity allocation in China in the first half year, which we did not have last year. So if you would remove that, actually, you would have a lower operational capital requirement than last year.
So all in all, when you put everything together, of course, our operational capital requirements go up more than last year, and that's indeed the main driver of the drop in the operational free capital generation. In terms of going forward, well, I explained a bit the one-offs. It's always difficult to predict that. So usually do not provide guidance going forward on OFCG.
The next question is coming from Nasib Ahmed from UBS.
First one is a broader question around capital management. I'm kind of flipping Michael's question around your free cash flow generation is higher than what you need to return capital to shareholders by dividends. So can you talk about kind of what's your preference on -- for a regular share buyback or dividend upgrade? And then also on the uses of capital, you said you don't want to sell, but in terms of buying more stakes or increasing your participation in some of the stakes, I know Thailand is the second biggest. China, maybe not possible. How much can you increase in Thailand and we talk about Ethias file as well? So that's one. Second is just on U.K. motor. What have you seen in the market over the first half in terms of pricing, where have you been? And then maybe the latest on pricing. Some data points have been pretty positive. What's the latest on the pricing trends there?
All right. Thank you, Nasib. I will take both questions. Well, first of all, in capital management, I would say there is no change in our view. We are running a sustainable growth strategy. So our first preference is if we see good opportunities to further grow our business, we will definitely consider that. If we have excess or less opportunities and growth, by the way, that can be Europe, that can be Belgium, that can also be Asia. Let me be clear on that one. That can also be Asia. And of course, we have that pool of reinsurance, which today is not in demand to significantly increase that capital within the plan Elevate27, but that's something always we can consider.
If beyond that, we have excess capital, of course, on the dividend, we know we have a dividend commitment. And that, of course, we will try to and we will honor in the first place. If beyond that, capital remains available and there is low opportunity for investing in growth, then, of course, we do not exclude the option of a share buyback in the future. You also asked about increasing your stake in participations that we have. Also there, no change. We have said that if our partner wherever in the world would like or to diversify our participation, you have seen we have done that many years ago in Turkiye, for instance, where we went from Non-Life also into Life. Then, of course, we are open to explore that opportunity and to widen our partnership.
Same if our partnership wants to step up in the market. Of course, that is also something for which we keep some funds available in case these opportunities would arise so that we can also support that because the strategy is clear in the countries where we are, we would have that ambition to become like a top 3 with maybe an exception for China, top 5 type of position. You mentioned China, by the way, let me remind you that we closed the transaction with Taiping Pension in the first half of the year. So there, we recently did an expansion of our partnership into the pension business. And U.K. motor pricing. Well, we have seen the market in motor slightly going up in the first half of the year, that was mid-single digit, 4% to 5%.
I can tell you that we did a little bit more, and we went low -- sorry, high single digit, 9% to 10%. But what is also interesting for us is that we have now a more diversified presence in the market towards different distribution channels and different customer groups. And I see that the team in the U.K. can now, I would say, fine-tune the pricing adjustments to balance, I would say, growth where it remains interesting, but also hold back where profitable growth comes under challenge. And so we have, I would say, a little bit more agility and flexibility in doing that.
By the way, we have also launched an AI engine on dynamic pricing, and there we also see some first positive effects coming in. So that's what we see. Second half latest data point I saw and that was over summer that it seems to be a slight continuation of the increase in pricing in the U.K. motor. Claims inflation remains high in the U.K. We talk about second -- 5% to 10% continued claims inflation. And honestly, I think the outlook for inflation for me is not overly positive that it would come down in the short term.
The next question is coming from Michele Ballatore from KBW.
I have 1 question about the growth in Belgium, which, of course, was quite strong. I mean, can you give me more color on this growth, both in Life in terms of what drove the demand there? I mean, if it's a byproduct of how the market performed in the first half or something else? And also in terms of the products that you're selling? And in Non-Life, also in Belgium, what kind of -- you mentioned tariff increases and portfolio growth. Maybe if you could give color on these 2 dynamics, where are you increasing tariffs? And what is the growth?
Okay. Thanks, Michele. Indeed, we saw a very strong performance on the Life side in Belgium. The Life side grew 27%, the Non-Life side, 13%. But of course, we have also to look scope on scope because in Belgium, of course, we took 2 more months at 100% in the numbers that you have in front of you. So if we bring Belgium back, we saw a growth of 13%, which is a mix of 14% in Life and 5% in Non-Life. On the Life side, strong performance by bancassurance. And of course, you know we have renewed that bancassurance agreement into a 15-year contract, and we see that there is more effort invested in further building the bancassurance relationship with BNP.
So we talk here more about the investment type of products also with a higher proportion of unit-linked than usual. If you look at the fiscal products, they are anyway more focused on the second half of the year. But there is, I think, some continued pressure also by changing in tax regulations, stricter application of the tax deductibility. So that market for the time being is growing less. But of course, we are waiting to see lot of performance there on the second half of the year. The growth in Non-Life is 5%. I would say that is a nice continued growth.
You know that almost 2/3 of the products in Non-Life in Belgium have an automatic indexation mechanism embedded taking into account the inflation. There is in the market a slight increase in premium for the CatNat risk that we have seen and also AG has applied a small increase in the property book. So -- but 5%, I would say, is a healthy continued growth for Non-Life. And there is also growth in volumes. And that's also an element. It is not only an element of tariff.
The next question is coming from Farooq Hanif from JPMorgan.
The first question is the comment you made about not sitting on capital. So obviously, you've made a decent gain on the Etiqa transaction. You have a lot of cash post that. How long would you wait? So what is the time frame for deciding whether you will return capital or use it for inorganic growth or growths? So for example, hypothetical situation, let's say you think some file is going to come, for example, in your home care, but it's taking a bit longer than you think. Are you prepared to just wait for that because you'd rather just be ready for when that happens? Or would you rather sort of fund when the time comes and really want to deploy that quickly? So I just want to understand the timing of that really. That's question 1.
Question 2 is on the combined ratio, really been supported by strong reserve releases. And this is an area where, I guess, we've not had quite a lot of guidance from you guys. So how much of that reserve release is structural? And how much is you basically being able to offset some of the nat cat that you saw in 1H? Can you give us some guidance on that? And what -- are we still on a path to 92% basically?
Farooq, I will take the first question. Second question, I give to Wim, who is very close to the reserve. We closed the first half year with a cash position between EUR 1 billion and EUR 1.1 billion. A similar amount is expected to come in at the closing of the transaction in Malaysia. So we can assume that EUR 2 billion to EUR 2.1 billion is probably a good reference for the evolution of the cash position. Your second part of the question is a lot more difficult. How quickly? Well, first of all, first things first, let's close the Malaysia transaction before we can really think about how to deploy. Of course, there is a bit of noise of M&A also in our home market, Belgium, there is an opportunity.
We have expressed our interest in that opportunity. But it's very hard to read today what the timing of this will be, so I can absolutely not comment. But I think you have enough confidence, I think, in how we manage the balance sheet and the cash position and the M&A opportunities. So if we truly believe we have excess capital for the longer run, we will consider that share buyback. But it is very, very hard today to put a timing on that one. Reserving?
Your question on reserving, as you know, we are very disciplined in how we set reserves. Our confidence interval is 75%, but you know that's a confidence interval on top of a best estimate. And our best estimate is not a point estimate. It's a bit of range. So you have a bit of reflections on where you put yourselves in the range. And there we are very disciplined in how we put ourselves in the range. What you've seen happening over the first half of the year is the normal evolutions of the claims. And you see that we had a higher reserve release in Belgium, 3% compared to 2% last year and also a higher reserve release in Europe.
Now you may have seen similar trends with some of the peers who communicated in the U.K. market. Also there, the prior year development has been strong. So that's a bit supporting, of course, the evolution of the reserve release as such. And of course, there is a bit of a link between how you look at the range of your best estimates and what you see in weather. And so that's the way you a bit look at it going forward. Now we've never given explicit guidance on that prior year development and how that will contribute. You should know H1 is always higher than H2. It's just a mechanical effect of a prior year release because you still have the claims of the end of last year running through and that becomes a prior year release.
Now if you want to have a bit of an estimate, I would give more an indication of 2% going forward, higher in the first half of the year, lower in the second half of the year. But you have also seen a bit of lower numbers in the previous years. Now on your reference point, path to 92%. Now the fact that we stay very disciplined in the reserving is that we also stay very disciplined in what we see happening across the globe and then especially what's happening in the Strait and what that could have as an impact on the inflation. And where we are mostly monitoring that is, of course, the impact on the U.K. market, where you know that inflation has the most direct impact in our market in Belgium and Portugal, that's more spread over time and can be better absorbed in the pricing. Now we've done some scenario analysis on how long we think that this is happening, and we put ourselves at the high amount of that scenario analysis. So if you would take that out, I can confirm that we are more in that 92% range. So that is on track with the path to the 92%.
The next question is coming from Jason Kalamboussis from ING.
I had a few questions. The first one is in Portugal. According to the news, you would be ready to take a stake to defend the bancassurance partnership. So could you remind us when it ends and the financial rationale for locking something like whatever EUR 0.5 billion to EUR 1 billion of capital to defend such a bancassurance deal and to what is the kind of length that you are looking, the duration?
The second part are kind of small questions. In China solvency comprehensive solvency, what's the third quarter outlook they give because difficult always to find. See to -- the sensitivities in equities haven't exactly worked. So it would be interesting to understand why -- and finally, you have 3% nat cat in the guidance. Now this is high for the second half because in the first half with pretty bad nat cat, we had 3.5%. So you assume nearly the same or a bit less for the second half. Does that give you a bit of margin to beat your own guidance?
Okay. Thank you, Jason. First one for me, the second one for Christophe. On Portugal, indeed, we have that successful bancassurance partnership with BCP. Maybe let me start by referring to the numbers that we have seen the Life business in Portugal growing just below 50%, 48%, 49% in the first half of the year. So I can tell you that the bancassurance business is functioning very well with our partner in Portugal. Indeed, there has been some noise in the media about stake that Fosun is holding into BCP. I've also said that together with you and I've also seen that the CEO of BCP has commented that they prepare for a potential scenario of divesting by Fosun. Look, that's all that I can comment on this. But of course, it is a relationship which is very close and very important for us. Bancassurance agreement we are having now is still running a few more years. Christophe, on Solvency?
Your question was why does the equity sensitivity does not work? It has to do with the size of the shock. So, there is a mechanic in your equity that is in your equity SCR that they call the symmetric adjustment. So that means if markets are very high, our capital charge for equity is actually higher than if markets were quite low. So that means if you do a big shock like 25%, this can go outside of the boundaries because it ranges from a plus to minus 10% on top of a base shock. So if you, for example, take European equities, the base shock under the standard formula will be 39%. It can basically be 10% higher or 10% lower in terms of capital requirements, depending if the markets at that moment are high or low. So that means if you do a big shock on 25%, you go beyond those boundaries. If you do a smaller shock, it behaves differently. So that's the reason that it's indeed difficult to use a big shock like 25% on, let's say, if you have a smaller movement during a quarter.
Okay. I will add a few comments on the weather. Maybe good to remind a few of the key numbers. So we had a significant weather impact. That's EUR 180 million impact on the net operating result. If you look at that weather impact, that's an impact of almost 5 percentage points on the combined ratio. So in the combined ratio that we published, we have 5 percentage points. In the guidance we did for the full year, we're referring to a guidance of 3% impact on the total combined ratio. That's for the full year impact, which means that in the second half of the year, we're expecting an impact of 1 percentage point. Now this 1 percentage point is aligned with the impact of weather that we had over the last 2 years.
Now you may remember when it was 1%, I said be a bit careful. A normal through the cycle level is more 2%. So now this year, we've taken in the guidance more that we are on the upper end of that guidance going to the 3%. So that's a bit to clarify the numbers because you mentioned the 3.5 percentage point. The 3.5 percentage point is the weather impact in Europe only in the segment Europe. The numbers I'm referring to are the one at the total level at group level. So we're taking that analysis at group level.
And finally, just the comprehensive solvency in China, what's the outlook they give for third quarter?
Solvency ratio. I think the outlook for TPL is 205%.
The next question is coming from Benoit Petrarque from Kepler Cheuvreux.
So a few questions on my side. First of all, on the U.K. remittances, it's up a bit in H1. I was wondering where you stand on Solvency II ratio and also versus your commitment to start to remit from esure in '28, whether you see that happening a bit upfront than expected also in '27 potentially. And on the remittance number above the EUR 1.4 billion for this year, if you clean for China and Thailand, could you strip out, say, EUR 175 million to get to a clean number for -- yes, for the future clean base for [indiscernible] and just finally on Ethias. I think there have been quite a number of political comments during this summer. What is your base case today? Do you think you could get a chance to get a deal by year-end? Or do you have a stronger conviction that, that will happen in '27?
Thank you, Benoit, for your questions. First of all, on U.K., we do not give solvency ratios by the specific entities. But what I can tell you is what we said at the beginning of the transaction that it will become accretive as of 2028 and that until then, the esure contribution, which we expect a normal evolution, and that's also what we see that, that would be consumed by the integration cost and also, of course, the higher cost of debt. And that is exactly what we have seen happening in the first half of the year. So we are on schedule in this respect. But we will, as I said, come to you with a more deep dive on the U.K. business and the integration specifically at the beginning of October. So I hope to welcome you there.
On the EUR 1.4 billion coming with excessive -- or excess solvency -- sorry, excess upstreaming from China and Thailand, I think you're right, EUR 175 million is probably a fair estimate for the two combined on the exceptional element in the upstreaming of solvency. Third, your question on Ethias, again, we cannot comment a lot on M&A opportunities. What I can tell you is that our view on the opportunity of Ethias has not changed. So in that sense, timing, I would say, has by no means become more clear. And if you follow a little bit the political environment about both files, the potential partial divestment by the government of Belfius and then the potential yes or no link on Ethias, you can imagine that at the moment, it is a very complex situation and complex decision. You gave two options there. Would it happen in '26 or '27? There is maybe a third option that it might even happen later or never.
Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to return the conference call back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
Okay. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your questions. To end this call, let me summarize the main conclusions. Next to our strong top line growth, our operations also delivered an improved profitability despite the impact from significant adverse weather, a clear reflection of the resilience of our insurance business. In 2026, we expect to reach a net operating result above EUR 1.95 billion, including the contribution of the sale of our stake in Malaysia and assuming around 3% full year weather impact on the combined ratio.
In 2026, we expect to receive above EUR 1.4 billion cash upstream from our insurance entities, which is an increase of 49% compared to last year. In line with our dividend commitment, an interim cash dividend of EUR 1.5 per share will be paid in December this year. With these closing remarks, I would like to bring this call to an end. If you should have outstanding questions, don't hesitate to contact our IR team. Thank you for your time, and I wish you a very nice day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your attending. You may now disconnect your lines.
ageas — Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Strong H1: robust sales and earnings, guidance raised, higher cash upstream — but weather losses and China/Thailand dividends add volatility.
📊 Quarter at a Glance
- Inflows: Total inflows +17% at constant FX; +8% at constant scope (excludes extra AG Insurance months and new UK acquisitions).
- Net operating result: €776m (+6% YoY); Life €629m (+17%), Non‑Life €240m.
- Return on equity: 15.8%.
- Cash upstream: now expected >€1.4bn (raised from €1.2bn), driven by higher dividends from China and Thailand.
- Combined ratio: 95.2% (vs 92.1% prior year); weather added ~5 percentage points (claims + expense ratio).
🎯 What Management Says
- Strategy: Continue Elevate27: data & AI acceleration (300+ use cases, ~40 shareable) to improve claims, underwriting and customer experience.
- M&A and portfolio moves: Completed step‑up to 100% of AG Insurance, UK expansions (Saga, esure) and sale of Malaysian stake (Etiqa) while investing in Taiping Pension in China.
- Capital priority: Growth investments first, maintain dividend commitment; buybacks possible only if excess capital persists.
🔭 Outlook & Guidance
- FY guidance: Net operating result raised to above €1.95bn (includes €450m net capital gain); assumes ~3pp full‑year weather impact on combined ratio.
- Cash & dividend: Cash upstream >€1.4bn for 2026; interim cash dividend €1.5 per share in December.
- Solvency: Solvency II ratio 195% at June; sale of Malaysian activities expected to add ~23 percentage points on closing.
❓ Analyst Q&A
- China growth & remittances: Management will not sell China; top‑line growth softer vs Belgium but technical liabilities growing; current China/Thailand upstreams include one‑offs (tax and exceptional payouts).
- Capital allocation: Priority remains organic/inorganic growth and dividends; share buybacks possible if surplus persists but no timing commitment.
- Non‑Life reserves & weather: Reserve releases were strong in H1 (prior‑year development); reserving remains disciplined — management says through‑the‑cycle combined ratio target around low‑90s, but weather and inflation are key risks.
⚡ Bottom Line
- Conclusion: Ageas delivered resilient H1 results with upgraded guidance and much stronger cash conversion, supporting the dividend and optional capital returns; monitor the sustainability of elevated upstreams (China/Thailand) and the continuing impact of adverse weather and reserve dynamics.
ageas — ageas SA/NV, Maybank Ageas Holdings Berhad - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, everybody, and thanks for dialing into this call. Last late moment invitation. So happy that you are so plenty to dial in. I'll give the word immediately to our CEO, Hans de Cuyper. I just want to flag you that there is a chat in this Teams call where you can either put some logistic problems that you want to flag to us and also potentially put in some of your questions. We will see if we can tackle them in this call. Otherwise, IR team will get back to you afterwards.
Leaving the word to Hans, go ahead.
Thank you, Veerle. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on this call. Today, I'm pleased to announce that we have reached an agreement with our long-standing partner, Maybank in Malaysia, to sell our 31% stake in Etiqa to them. After more than 25 years of close collaboration with Maybank, having created a national insurance champion in Malaysia, we have jointly decided that now is the right moment to conclude our journey and for Maybank to take over full ownership of Etiqa.
At the successful collaboration it has been as the terms of the transaction show, we are able to monetize the value that we have created together over the last 25 years, providing us with EUR 1.1 billion of cash proceeds. I would like to take a moment to reflect on what the 25 years partnerships has delivered. Together with Maybank, we have taken Etiqa from a start-up to a true national insurance champion, a true market leader in Takaful and non-life and a strong multiline insurer across life and non-life active in both Malaysia and Singapore.
This success stems from a powerful combination, Maybank's unmatched distribution and customer reach which paired with Ageas' deep expertise in bancassurance, insurance risk, financial management capabilities and product expertise. That's how we have consistently outperformed the market. And I would like to take this opportunity to warmly thank our partner, Maybank, for the collaboration in building this success story together. It has been an exciting journey also for me personally as I look back with very positive memories on the time I was on the ground in Malaysia. Between 2007 and 2013, I was able to actively contribute myself to the development of Etiqa first as the CFO and later as the CEO.
Financially, the partnership has also been highly attractive for Ageas. The company became profitable, and it started paying dividends as from year 7, up to a total of EUR 316 million, leading to a positive cumulative cash flow of EUR 83 million and a double-digit return on investment. A tangible demonstration of the strength, resilience and value delivered by our partnership. This divestment allows us to realize the significant value created together with Maybank over the past 25 years, and it exemplifies how our unique partnership model allows to build value-creating market-leading positions.
And as you are aware, we operate a model where we partner up with a strong local player who knows the market dynamics and has customer access, while we add our deep insurance and bancassurance expertise. It has proven to be the best way to enter the market and get commercial traction to build the activity and build out national champions, as you see in Malaysia, but also in all the other Asian markets we operate in. How the partnership potentially evolves in a later stage of maturity depends on the specific situation. As you remember, in our Indian Life entity, AFLI, for instance, we stepped up to control, now owning 70%. And as we show today, our partnership model is not only designed to build value for the long term and create in partnership national champions, but also to realize the value when the moment is right.
This transaction is another step in the development of our business portfolio. Recently, we have invested some EUR 3.5 billion in further strengthening our operations in Belgium and Europe through in-market consolidation. While we now divest one of our activities in Asia, this will have no impact on the diversification strategy of Ageas. As part of our balanced profile and business model, focusing on both European and Asian markets, we will continue to further build on and invest in our partnerships in the Asian region. We are present in Asian markets that are sizable and our strong market positions will allow us to capture the continued long-term growth potential in the region. We will further develop our existing operations according to their needs and stage of maturity.
And in reinsurance, we continue our organic growth with focus on profitability and diversification. Let me now turn to the impact on our financial metrics. Our initial guidance for the full year 2026 net operating result, including Etiqa's expected full year 2026 contribution. With this divestment, we anticipate a lower contribution of around EUR 30 million, 3-0 million, EUR 30 million in 2026 from Malaysia, which is quite limited in the total group results. Additionally, we expect to recognize a net capital gain of around EUR 450 million from this transaction. At the half year 2026 results publication, we will provide you with an updated guidance for the full year 2026 net operating result. Going forward, when all recent transactions will be closed and coming to full contribution to the group, net operating result, our profile will be made of 1/3 Asian partnerships and 2/3 Belgium, Europe and Reinsurance.
Regarding the recurring cash upstream, this transaction doesn't affect the expectations going forward. The cash received from Malaysia represented only about 2% of the total cash upstream over 2025, hence, a very limited contribution in our broader cash generative profile. This divestment will also have a positive impact of some 25 percentage points on our Solvency II ratio, the one-on-one translation of the increase in own funds to be recognized at closing of the transaction.
Before taking your questions, let me summarize the key highlights of this deal. The transaction delivers a very attractive financial return of around 2x price to book, generating EUR 1.1 billion in cash proceeds and resulting in an estimated net capital gain of around EUR 450 million, hence, crystallizing the substantial value created throughout the partnership over the past 25 years. This transaction further validates our value creation story and demonstrates that our partnership approach creates long-term value while remaining flexible to seize opportunities that reinforce shareholder interests.
We reaffirm our strong belief in the growth potential of the Asian market, a region that remains a core pillar of our long-term growth strategy.
I've now reached the end of my presentation, and I'm happy to take any questions you might have.
[Operator Instructions] And just to remind you one thing, we are currently in closed period. So it would be appreciated if you only ask questions that are related to this transaction. Farquhar, I will unmute you now.
2. Question Answer
Just 2 questions, if I may. Firstly, I wondered if you might help us understand how the consideration of EUR 1.1 billion was arrived at. In particular, was that the kind of mechanical outcome of the exit terms within the original JV agreement or perhaps some kind of agreed benchmarking exercise in terms of arriving at that number.
And then secondly, with regards to the ultimate likely use of the proceeds, my understanding is obviously you'd have to prefer to reinvest back into the business if opportunities arose. But is there still kind of a geographic preference within that. Obviously, in recent times, there has been more rebalancing towards Europe. Would that still be maybe the bias of preference at the moment? Or maybe here, would it be better to recycle back into Asia? I just wondered if there's any kind of bias in terms of what might be preferred, though ultimately, everything will depend on the opportunities that come.
Thanks, Farquhar. Well, on your first part, of course, these numbers, and I cannot go into detail about what the shareholders agreement had prescribed. But of course, these numbers are part of a negotiation between the buying and selling party. So I cannot zoom in much more in the details. But again, if you look at the multiples, price to book and price to earning, I think we managed to achieve, I think, a very attractive valuation, showing also once again that mature company that we have been able to build with our partner, Maybank in Malaysia.
On your second part, the proceeds, well, I think the response will not surprise you. Of course, we are a group that we prefer if we can to invest in growth, and that will definitely be the first opportunity. But before I start, first things first, we are announcing a deal now. Of course, we need to wait for closing. And then I think we can reconsider what we do with the proceeds. But your detailed question here on geography is a very relevant one. You have seen us making EUR 3.5 billion investments, I would say, on the European, the continent and the U.K. This is a divestment in Asia, but I've shown you also in the speech how it further optimizes the balance of the group, which is roughly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. Asia, probably just below 1/3.
But let me state again that with the aging population, I do believe in the mid- and long term that the growth of Asia will outperform the other regions. We also see the GDP in the Asian countries above the GDP growth we see, for instance, in Europe. So in that respect, I expect actually Asia to continue growing further in the mid- to long term compared to the other regions. So that being said, Asia is a key region for us, and it can also be a region where we further invest. So the proceeds can be used both for Belgium or Europe or Asia because I believe that the balance in the net operating result composition of the group is close to optimal if you take into account the different regions we are active in.
May I pass the word to Nasib, please. Go ahead with your questions.
Question on divestments. You kind of mentioned that this crystallizes value and shows us the value in the Asian JVs. Are there any others where you've kind of achieved that level of growth where you can potentially without front running where you can potentially crystallize some value. I guess second question, maybe a Wim type question on M&A firepower pro forma. Of course, you get the EUR 1.1 billion, but what's the debt capacity to add on to that.
And then finally, I don't know if you can kind of give the moving parts on the EUR 1.5 billion net operating result target for this year, kind of if you lose maybe EUR 30 million from this transaction, Portugal losses in Belgium. What was in the guidance and what's not and kind of thinking about that for this year? That's it for me.
Okay. Well, on your first question, every country in Asia is in a very different stage of development. So I always say we talk about the Asian region, but there is no such thing as an Asian region. Every country is very different, very different characteristics. As I said, with the previous question is that we strongly believe in the further growth potential in all the countries where we are. So in that sense, I remember, we are predominantly active on the life side, aging population. I don't have to repeat myself.
These are regions with material and significant growth potential, regions and countries also where we have great partners, partners who have good customer reach and where we also continue contributing expertise, and that is the strategy going forward for Ageas into the Asian region.
Second one on firepower, I cannot comment right now too much. Let's -- first things first, we need to close this transaction, and that would be at EUR 1.1 billion to the potential firepower of the group. All the other areas like cash and debt capacity are topics that we can talk about and update potentially at the results announcement end of August. And the same one goes for your third question, guidance on net operating results.
Remember that we have said that our ambition is to exceed the EUR 1.5 billion. What is changing here? Well, first of all, the capital gain we expect, of course, to close before the end of the year. So in that case, the capital gain can be added to the net operating results for the Asian region. On the other hand, we will miss approximately EUR 30 million of profit coming out of Malaysia for the second half of the year, and that will be 2 elements that influence the guidance of the group, but an updated guidance taking into account with everything what happened in the first half of the year, we will share with you by the end of August.
Let's move on to Michael.
Fantastic. Well done for the deal. I have 4 questions. One is how long did it take? I think there was the first mention of figure of $4 billion, which isn't very different from the current price back in November '24. The second is on solvency. Can you give us the moving parts? I have updated my Solvency, but to get there, I had to make some heroic assumptions on the reduction in SCRs. I just wanted maybe a bit of a help here. The third one is on the Asia growth. You kind of answered, but -- what's your own personal view of what the growth profile of the region means for Ageas? Remind us maybe of the top line or whatever is in the plan. Just as a reminder, I've completely forgotten, I must be honest on this one. And then the last one is on -- can you outline what was the business profile of the business you're selling? How much was life, non-life, et cetera?
Okay, Michael, thank you for your questions. So first, how long it take, I don't think is so relevant for the topic of today. You're right, since November 2024, there was a little bit of rumors in the market. There were valuations in the market, but I cannot zoom in, I think, on how both partners -- and as you know, I know our Malaysian partner very well. I had the luck and the opportunity to work together with them for more than 7 years.
So of course, we have a continuous dialogue on the partnership and what the best future for the partnership would be. So I don't think I would be able to give you even a starting date when the discussions would come in. Second, on solvency, you talk about SCR and so on. Be aware that Malaysia was nonconsolidated, so that was out of the Solvency II scope. So in that sense, on our Solvency II -- on solvency ratio of the group, you just add the EUR 1.1 billion on the assets because it is just cash coming in, which was fully deducted from the equity of the company. So in that sense, on the Solvency II scope, there is no SCR -- direct SCR impact.
Asian growth, well, I must say my rule of thumb is always a little bit if you grow 1%, 2%, 3% above GDP growth of the countries in life insurance, that's probably a good ambition. And that varies also within the Asian region, by the way, that varies from country to country. If you look at India, where you see GDP numbers, 7%, 8%. Other countries are a little bit more struggling in the current geopolitical situation. But life insurance penetration does remain low in the region. Social security systems in many countries are not developed in a way as we know them in Europe and aging, as you know, in some countries more than others. So it's a very extreme issue in China, for instance, but it is an issue across the board.
So that's what I can give you on growth. As you know, we do not give any guidance any guidance on growth. And then you asked a little bit more detail on the composition of the business. I do not want to go too much in detail now, but if you want to have a more detailed profile, I think Veerle and the team can provide you. But first of all, there was Malaysia and Singapore. So that's the first element you have to take. And then within Malaysia, you had actually 4 activities. You had life and non-life, both on the conventional side and on the Takaful side.
We have market-leading positions in non-life, we were #5, where we had 7% market share. In family, which is the Life Takaful, we were second with 15% market share. In general, we were also second with 10% market share when we were a market leader in General Takaful, where we even had 40% of the market share. In Singapore, we did not have leading positions that we were #8 in live and #27 in Non-Life with a market share of, respectively, 3% and 1%. So that's, I think, what I want to share with you now. But if you would like to have more details on the composition of the business size in those countries, I think Veerle can give you a little bit more details.
And then move on to Farooq. You also have a question.
So first question is why now? So what is it that's kind of driving you to do this? I mean, obviously, the multiples are good, but it's also a growth business and a business that you very familiar with and you found to be very attractive as you commented on. And my second question is, clearly, you want to reinvest in the business. But when does plan B and plan C come in when you think, right, okay, this is a lot of surplus capital on our balance sheet. We do need to distribute this at some point to create accretion. So what are the kind of existing capital management framework, your thoughts around that?
Thanks, Farooq. Well, first of all, yes, why now? Well, I think indeed, if you look at valuation, it is an attractive moment to do so. Luckily, I think the business also still has growth potential because that growth potential, of course, is reflected in the way we valued that company. But of course, it also has to do with the view of your partner who is keen and has announced that they would love to have that 100% of the insurance entity in the group. And again, after 25 years, when the partnership has, I would say, fully matured and valuations are right, then I think at that moment, the moment is also, right.
Let me reiterate, this has -- this was not related to the EUR 3.5 billion we invested in Europe. And this was not about cash needs or divesting. That was not the driver of the transaction. You should look at this transaction on a stand-alone basis where both partners found each other and an attractive future for Etiqa on the one hand and an attractive valuation for us on the other hand. So that's I think -- and that's what drives eventually timing and making agreements between partners.
On the capital base, indeed, it's a significant strengthening of our capital. Again, that only happens at closing. So not yet at signing. So let's wait for the closing. You also know that M&A cannot be timed in the future. Those things come and happen at a certain moment in time, but I think we have been able to build over the years, a very strong track record to be active in the M&A opportunities, both, of course, in line with group strategy, which is known very well to you and also with respecting the financial discipline that we always apply as a group. And that's, as always, also our first intention to look at opportunities that match our strategy, that match our financial industry and to continue that growth story that Ageas has been writing for so many years now.
We also have the reinsurance segment. Remember, we have committed to invest a little bit more than EUR 200 million in the reinsurance segment by the end of this strategic cycle at EUR 200 million to the third-party reinsurance segment. To be clear, we are perfectly on track to do so. But we have also, of course, designed together with the new strategy also the new future for the reinsurance. So that's the second element. And then thirdly, and that's I think also you know from us that if we truly believe that we have excess capital that we cannot immediately deploy within our criteria, then a share buyback can also be an option. All this, of course, we first need to close the transaction.
And just actually, I just want to confirm that historically, you said that in reinsurance, it's an organic strategy.
Indeed, our strategy in reinsurance is organic.
Okay. Thank you very much all for your interest and the good questions. If you have any further questions, please contact the IR team. We'll be happy to further guide you if there would be need for it. Wishing you a very nice day. Goodbye.
ageas — ageas SA/NV, Maybank Ageas Holdings Berhad - M&A Call
Ageas will sell its 31% stake in Etiqa to Maybank for €1.1bn, recognising an estimated €450m net capital gain and modest ongoing profit impact.
🎯 Key Message
- Deal summary: Ageas agreed to sell its 31% stake in Etiqa to long‑time partner Maybank, receiving €1.1bn cash and crystallising an estimated €450m net capital gain; management frames this as validation of its partnership model with limited operational disruption (≈€30m lower net operating result in 2026).
⚡ Strategic Highlights
- Portfolio effect: Transaction shifts group profile toward ~2/3 Belgium/Europe+Reinsurance and ~1/3 Asia once recent deals are fully contributing, while maintaining strategic exposure to Asian growth through other partnerships.
- Capital & solvency: Cash proceeds increase own funds and are expected to raise the Solvency II ratio by roughly 25 percentage points on closing; the Malaysia cash upstream was a small part (~2%) of 2025 upstream cash.
- Capital allocation: Priority is reinvestment in growth aligned with strategy (organic and M&A), continued €200m+ reinsurance commitment, with share buybacks possible if excess capital remains after closing.
🆕 New Information
- Transaction specifics: Price €1.1bn, estimated net capital gain ~€450m, and an expected reduction of ~€30m in Malaysia contribution to 2026 net operating result; management will publish updated full‑year guidance at the half‑year results (end of August).
❓ Analyst Q&A
- Valuation: Management declined to disclose the contractual mechanics, saying price resulted from negotiation; highlighted an attractive valuation (~2x price‑to‑book).
- Use of proceeds: Preference to deploy for growth (Europe/Asia opportunistically); final allocation depends on closing and available opportunities; buybacks remain an option if excess capital persists.
- Solvency & consolidation: Malaysia was non‑consolidated under Solvency II; impact is primarily an increase in own funds (cash) rather than an immediate change in solvency capital requirement (SCR).
📌 Bottom Line
- Conclusion: The Etiqa sale crystallises material value, materially strengthens regulatory capital and provides meaningful optionality for M&A, reinvestment or shareholder returns; it slightly reduces near‑term operating profit but is a net positive for shareholder value if proceeds are deployed disciplinedly.
ageas — Q4 2025 Earnings Call
1. Management Discussion
Welcome to this Ageas conference call. I am pleased to present Mr. Hans de Cuyper, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Wim Guilliams, Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that the conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand over to Mr. Hans de Cuyper and Mr. Wim Guilliams. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you all for dialing into this conference call and for joining the presentation of Ageas full year 2025 results.
I'm extremely proud to report that we successfully completed the first year of our Elevate27 strategy, a remarkable year where we delivered a continued strong performance and raised our financial targets twice. 2025 was, to say the least, a transformational year for Ageas, giving us many achievements to be proud of. Thanks to the Saga partnership and esure acquisition, Ageas steadily strengthened its position in the U.K. market becoming one of the top 3 U.K. personal lines insurers.
By acquiring the remaining stake in AG, we have full ownership of -- we will have full ownership of our core home market, further strengthening our leading position in Belgium. Both transactions fully aligned with our Elevate27 strategy of focusing on cash generative entities.
In 2025, Ageas delivered outstanding growth across the group, with inflows up more than 9% at constant FX, driven by both Life and Non-Life with Ageas Re adding momentum. This remarkable performance was boosted by a strong growth in Non-Life with inflows up 16%, up in all segments and product lines. The uplift in Belgium resulted from both portfolio expansion and tariff adjustments while Asia benefited from an upward trend in all countries. Europe inflows increased with continued focus on profitability over volume and the U.K. positively contributed despite a softer market supported by esure and Saga business.
The Reinsurance segment delivered an exceptional performance, mainly driven by third-party business, thanks to strong profitable growth in all business lines and aided by the inflows from partnerships. In Life, Europe inflows experienced a significant increase of plus 21%, driven by continued excellent performance in Türkiye and a remarkable growth in savings products in Portugal. Also, Belgium showed a strong performance of plus 6%, driven by excellent unit-linked sales to the bank channel, while Asia growth was realized with strong persistency rates, building on the new business that was sold in previous year in China.
Our continued strong growth in Life translated in the growth of our Life liabilities of more than 6%. Regarding the net operating result, we achieved an outstanding result of more than EUR 1.655 billion above the latest guidance announced last month. This strong result was driven by a remarkable Non-Life performance reflected in the excellent combined ratio of 92.5%, partially supported by benign weather in Belgium. Life performance improved across the group with high margins in Belgium and Europe further supported by a one-off tax benefit in China.
Regarding the recurring cash upstream, we received over 2025 EUR 949 million, and this is notably above guided range of EUR 850 million to EUR 900 million and up 18% compared to last year. And for 2026, we expect a significantly higher cash upstream of EUR 1.2 billion. Following the excellent results, a solid Pillar 2 solvency ratio of 211% and a robust cash position, the Board of Directors has decided to propose a total gross cash dividend of EUR 3.75 per share, a growth above 7% over 2025 and this is fully in line with our commitment.
The interim dividend of EUR 1.5 per share was already paid out in December last year, and the payment of the remaining EUR 2.25 per share will be done in the course of June. Year 2025 demonstrated how quickly economic conditions such as inflation and interest rates can change and how macroeconomic events can influence the business environment. In this dynamic landscape, having diversified operations across regions and products are particularly important.
During this transformational first year of Elevate27, Ageas achieved a more balanced geographical and segment distribution increasing the weight on European cash generative entities. The balance between Life and Non-Life businesses across the world is a defining feature of Ageas as a well diversified group, which keeps a steady growth in performance and a strong solvency even in volatile times.
Before handing over things to Wim, let me share a quick update of our 2025 M&A journey. We closed Saga in July and esure in September, adding the missing pieces to our U.K puzzle. For esure, the integration started already at the end of 2025 ahead of plan, and we are well on track to achieve the announced annual synergies of more than GBP 100 million as of 2028. With the AG acquisition on track to close in the second quarter of 2026, another milestone approaches, further reshaping our group and accelerating our journey towards delivering on our Elevate27 ambitions.
This allowed us to elevate our financial targets twice in the first year of our strategic cycle, upgrading our holding free cash flow to more than EUR 2.6 billion and the shareholder remuneration to more than EUR 2.2 billion while reiterating our average earnings per share growth between 6% to 8%.
With this positive update, I now give the floor to Wim, who will walk you through the segment performance in more detail.
Thank you, Hans. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us.
As mentioned by Hans, the strong net operating result was mainly driven by an excellent insurance result in Non-Life and a solid performance in Life, further supported by a low tax rate in China. This translated into a strong combined ratio at 92.5% and a high Life net operating result of EUR 1.259 billion. Life net operating result rose sharply by 39% compared to last year. As communicated end of January '26, following a tax regime change in China, a Chinese joint venture, Taiping Life, recognized a positive one-off benefit of EUR 300 million in deferred taxes.
We also delivered an excellent Life operating insurance service result, up 4% compared to last year, illustrating the quality of the business in all segments. In Belgium, the Life net operating result was up plus 5% compared to last year, supported by a solid insurance result, as shown by the strong guaranteed margin, of 102 basis points. In Europe, the Life net operating result was up plus 20% compared to last year, driven by an excellent performance in Türkiye.
Asia recorded a solid increase in the Life operating insurance service results, up more than 7%, driven by a higher CSM release and a positive development in expense variance. CSM roll forward showed a positive operating CSM movement of EUR 170 million. This positive evolution corresponding to a 1.8% growth was supported by a significant contribution of new business.
Looking at the drivers of the Life value new business, the present value of new business premiums in '25 was driven by the strategic shift in product mix in China. Belgium showed a significant improvement in the Life business new margin compared to last year, up 110 basis points, reaching a new business margin of 6.8%.
In Europe, the present value of new business premiums showed a strong growth compared to last year of plus 17%, driven by Türkiye. Group Life new business margin stood at 7.9%, a performance influenced by the liability transformation in China to participating products. Participating products are more capital efficient and less sensitive to interest rate movements, but they typically carry lower margins than traditional products. The resulting shift in the business mix impacts the overall margin.
Moving now to Non-Life. The combined ratio reached an excellent 92.5%, leading to a 21% increase in the net operating result to EUR 548 million. The strong performance was driven by all segments. In Belgium, the Non-Life net operating result rose by plus 9%, reflecting both business growth and an improved combined ratio supported by benign weather conditions.
In Europe, the combined ratio improved versus last year, driven by the continued positive trajectory in health profitability in Portugal and better household performance across all countries. In Asia, the Non-Life net operating result increased across all markets, supported by an improved combined ratio. Lastly, the reinsurance combined ratio for the third-party business stood at a strong 76.5% benefiting from favorable claims development and a stable expense ratio.
Regarding the balance sheet evolution. Our comprehensive equity grew strongly compared to full year '24, reaching EUR 17.5 billion. This growth was driven by strong net operating result and the capital increase for the esure acquisitions, which more than offset the impact of foreign exchange volatility and dividend payments. Our current cash position stands at a very solid EUR 1.45 billion, firmly supported by the EUR 949 million of dividend upstreams during full year '25, a strong 18% rise compared to last year. Our cash position was further reinforced by the RT1 issue completed in mid-December.
To conclude, I would like to add a word on solvency and operational capital generation. As mentioned by Hans, the solvency ratio of the Solvency II scope stood at a comfortable 211%, while the solvency of the non-Solvency II scope stood at 244%. The operational capital generation over the period amounted to EUR 1.9 billion. This included EUR 1.2 billion generated by the Solvency II entities, representing a 7% year-on-year increase, while the general account consumed EUR 187 million.
Non-Solvency II entities contributed EUR 892 million, a decrease compared to last year, reflecting the interest rate environment and the lower new business contribution from China, following the strategic shift toward participating [indiscernible] products. Operational free capital generation amounted to EUR 793 million. Within the Solvency II scope, operational free capital generation increased, supported by higher operational capital generation, the operational free capital generation in the non-Solvency II scope was impacted by higher consumption, capital consumption, mainly driven by the increased equity allocation in China.
I've now reached the end of my presentation, and we are ready to answer any questions you may have.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from David Barma with Bank of America.
2. Question Answer
Firstly, on Asia, can you update us on where the mix of business is towards your target in terms of participating products and whether the margins in the second half of the year should be fully reflecting this change of mix or whether we should see a bit more pressure in '26? That's my first question.
And then secondly, on cash, with Ageas being full owner of AG, you've talked about the potential for cash pooling that could reduce some of the conservatism in local buffers. Can you give some color on what that means in practice and whether you'd be looking to run with less excess capital in Belgium going forward?
Thank you, David. I think I'll give both questions to Wim, who can give you the technical details.
On the business mix, we've done a substantial change to the participating products. If you look at from a annual premium equivalent perspective, we're at 70% to 80%. But you should know that in that remaining, there's also a sizable part, which is nonparticipating, but they are very short term. They're more than protection business. You can say that we've done a major shift towards these participating products. I can understand your questions on the margins and how we have to look at them going forward? Now there has been a bit of volatility of these margins over the years. So don't take the second half as a reference. I would more look at the full year, what you see there as margins going forward as a good reference because there's a bit of a mix in the duration of the products they will be looking at. Why do I say look at the full year? You've seen that over the last couple of months, the rates in China are a bit more stable. So that has, of course, an impact on the margins you will see going forward.
If they would go up or if they would go down, you know that we have now that automatic interest rate mechanism in China, but that always works with a bit of delay, so that you have to take into account going forward.
Now your second question on cash fungibility, cash pooling has less to do with the excess capital from a solvency perspective. This is more a liquidity management tool, where we can say we can look at the free liquidity from a group perspective and start pulling that together. So that was also the reason why we said you can have a different view on our local -- on our GA liquid asset, total liquid assets. So we don't need to be as stringent as we are as before.
Now your follow-up question will be then, what is the new level you would take into account? As in the past, allow me not to give a clear number on that because it depends a lot on the market circumstances and that is driving what we have. But we will continue having a cash guardrail. But thanks to this cash pooling, we have additional tools at group level now to take them into account to manage that cash liquidity going forward.
Our next question is coming from Farooq Hanif from JPMorgan.
I've actually got 2 questions and one clarification following the answer to David's question. So just to be -- just a clarification first. What you just said, Wim, was that we should continue to forecast cash remittances as normal, but the amount of cash that you need at the holding is no longer as big a constraint. Is that the right way to think about it? So that's a clarification number one.
And then on the questions, on Asia tax, I believe there are still some ongoing effects, if you could just talk about the difference between deferred tax asset, deferred tax liability, what's been recognized and what could be recognized going forward and how we should think about the tax rate for China and Asia generally going forward in the Life business?
And then my last question is on the reinsurance profits. Obviously, throughout the group, you've had very good result because of weather. But in Reinsurance, the third-party profit has grown a lot as you stated in your presentation is ahead of target. So can you just explain how much of that is sustainable? How much of that might disappear with the Prima quota share? Just want to get a sense of what you think of the Re profit going forward?
Farooq, on the first one, I can be very clear, yes, your understanding is correct. So it's about cash fungibility. And in the past, we looked at the total liquid assets. This has nothing to do with the cash remittance as such. That will follow the normal evolution that you had in the past.
Your second question on Asia tax. I can understand this is, of course, the major update that you've seen with that one-off deferred tax benefit. As you could read end of January, this has, of course, to do with the fact that you know we have been more conservative in the past on these DTAs, which we didn't recognize as the average of the market is. And now it has been clarified with the transition to IFRS 17/9 that that's the tax base and also the transition effect you can take into account in how you calculate the taxes.
So basically, this one-off tax benefit is a bit adjusting the more conservative tax rate that we had in '23 and '24, but it has all to do with deferred tax. From now onwards, we are for tax accounting in an IFRS 17/9 world in Mainland China, that means we take the IFRS 17/9 results and that's the tax base going forward. There's always a bit of an adjustment for fair value to P&L movements on instruments, but that's less relevant for us because we exclude them from our net operating results, so you can put that a bit aside.
Now on that tax base, what is creating the big deductibility is that if you invest in long-term government bonds and in some of the provisional bonds, the coupon you get on these bonds, you can deduct from the tax base. So that means that if you now look at the situation, we will be looking to a tax rate between 0% to 10%. If you ask us to give a number in that range, it will be more than 5% because that's the midrange we have. And that depends on the deductibility that we have on that IFRS 79 tax base.
How will that evolve going forward? That will depend on the evolution of the portfolio, the growth of the portfolio, and of course, to what extent we will have that part of deductibility of long-term government bonds.
On the Reinsurance profits and the weather, and then I will give it back also to Hans. Please remember, of course, that the Reinsurance team has done a tremendous job also to work on the diversification of the portfolio. We're no longer fully dependent on weather. Weather will stay an element in Reinsurance, but we have diversified to other types of business lines and that means that the profit signature going forward will not be only dependent on cuts and that part of the business.
I can add, Farooq, 2 things. First is your question on Prima. You're right, we had EUR 7 million impact result in '25. As you know, we expect that to go on in '26, probably around another EUR 8 million. In the long run, AXA has communicated that it is their intention to take over that business. How that phasing out will happen is not fully clear yet. But I think by the end of the strategic cycle '27, you can assume that, that business will not be there anymore.
On the other hand, we have now an organization that is capable to insure and reinsure these type of partnerships. And we have already, I think, signed a new similar type of partnership for not the same volume, but EUR 130 million. So that is a business that we will continue developing going forward.
Last comment I want to add on Wim is, indeed the diversification. As you know, we started with predominantly property risk. We have diversified, first of all, in casualty. And now the team has done a great job in underwriting expertise for specialty lines. Eventually, the intention is to bring it to roughly to 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 in the 3 segments. So that will, first of all, stabilize results; and secondly, reduce the dependency on weather as such for Reinsurance.
Just one follow-up, if I may. I believe, and I might be wrong, that there's also a deferred tax liability benefit that you could get in Asia, am I correct? So when you give the 5% guidance, that's taking that into account?
Let's take into the -- yes, Farooq, that's taken into account. It will, of course, depend -- that's all based on the projections of results going forward. If that would be a difference, then you could have still a difference in the tax rate also at this point. That's taken into account in the assumption of the 5%.
The next question is coming from Andrew Baker from Goldman Sachs.
First, there's been some headlines around China government potentially planning capital injection into some of the larger insurers, including Taiping Life. If this was to happen, would you anticipate any impact on the dividend capacity from this business? And then secondly, are you able to just give an overview of the rate and claim inflation dynamics that you're seeing in the U.K. right now?
Okay. On your first question, indeed, there has been some rumors about this China government capital injections. Of course, we cannot comment and we cannot act on rumors. What you will see is that actually, our solvency in China remains quite strong despite the fact that we had, I would say, a double impact from the VIR over '25 because, of course, you have the further absorption of the VIR impact, but you also had the impact on the asset valuation because of interest rates that stabilized slightly up.
So that being said, I can say that a big chunk of the VIR impact has been absorbed. We have seen that the gap between the spot rate and the VIR rate as approximately halved over 2025. There is more effect to come, but the solvency is still comfortably about -- above 200%. So for us at this moment, a capital injection is -- in Taiping Life is not on the radar. U.K. claims inflation, it remains high. So in my view, there is, I would say, no room for further softening of the market.
We have seen the market softening in '25. We have not fully followed that. We have put bottom line profitability above top line growth, although, of course, we do see a nice performance in top line, but that's also from absorbing the Saga and the esure business in the portfolio. Our price adjustments have been limited to approximately 2%, both in motor and property, while you have seen the market softening between 10% and 12%.
Towards the end of the year, December, and that's also what we see in the pattern beginning of this year, we've seen it could be that the motor market is bottoming out a little bit, and that [indiscernible] become reasonable. But all this, of course, is subject to further monitoring and how it will go. What we do see now in the strategy of the U.K. team is we have, I would say, more dynamics to play in this pricing market because we have now access to the full, I would say, potential customer base via different brands and different distribution channels from partnership over brokerage, where our pricing used to be a lot more stable because this was about the good relationship with the brokers versus PCW and direct where the pricing often is a lot more dynamic where you immediately act on your positioning in the rankings. But I can assure you that the team is very diligent on focusing protection of the portfolio on the one hand, but definitely also on achieving bottom line performance.
The next question is coming from Michael Huttner from Berenberg.
Fantastic. I have so many questions, but I'll ask 2 and come back. The first one is just a bit more on China. I was really interested by your comment that the gap between the spot interest rates and the VIR is halved and solvency is above. But can you give us a little bit more granularity? It's just -- I'm sure -- just in terms of the gap on the VIR and if it were to fully close, what would it mean in terms of solvency? I mean any help -- and within that, if I may include that as a question, I saw the China cash went up from EUR 80 million to EUR 110 million. And I'm just wondering what you kind of feel for what it might be in your plan for the EUR 1.2 billion in 2026?
And the second question is on Reinsurance. Excluding -- so you have this 300% rise in Prima, I'm assuming that's Prima and Triglav. Can you give us a feel for what the kind of the more normal business, what the growth is there? And in light to that, just a feel for whether at some stage, you'll be considering putting more capital in there?
Okay. Thank you, Michael. There are 2 detailed business questions, so I will give them to the responsible heads of those business, Filip and Manu in a minute.
But maybe first, your question on VIR and solvency, which I give to Christophe, the CRO.
Yes, perhaps to explain the solvency, you can see it a bit in the evolution on the slides that we have shared. If you see our solvency evolution on Page 22, you see that you have a big market movement in there. And obviously, the biggest impact of that market movement is exactly linked to what Hans was mentioning also the VIR impact.
Now in terms of amounts, there is an FX impact in that. So you first need to deduct that. That's about EUR 900 million on the own funds and the whole capital movement that you see there, there's about EUR 300 million is basically a fix related, if you simplify it. So the fix doesn't move that much. The solvency ratio is quite neutral. But it does, of course, impact the own funds and the capital requirements.
I would say most of the rest is actually linked to interest rate movements. We have different things. Hans already mentioned the rates went up during the year. So you have 1/3 of a double hit there. But of course, the equity markets also increased, so that offsets a bit. So we can expect that, given the figures that Hans already mentioned, I think the delta between, let's say, the spot rate of the Valuation Interest Rate and that average Valuation Interest Rate was about 90 basis points at the end of last year and is about 40 basis points today. So we did absorb a large part of that delta during the year. And of course, that means that we expect still a material impact to come in 2026, but by then, it will start to go down a lot.
Upstreaming China...
Yes. Thank you, Michael. On the dividend development that you saw over the last year, of course, it's just not entirely come from China, but China indeed increased the dividend, very much in line with the statements that they themselves made on their dividend policy. So to demystify a little bit the effect of dividend on the solvency is only around 3%, 4%, let's keep that in mind.
That is not a determining factor. CTIH made a commitment and also in their public statement that they are looking at a steadily increasing EPS over time and that is the line they stick to. They also mentioned that they may relook at that as increasing the payout looking forward. But so we expect stable increasing dividend per share coming out of CTIH and Taiping Life being the main feeder of that, you can draw your own conclusion.
So before I go to Manu for reinsurers on upstreaming, you mentioned the EUR 1.2 billion, Michael. Important there is that in the agreement we have with BNP on the stake in AG, we will receive the full '25 -- over '25 dividend of AG already at the level of Ageas. So that should give a lot more comfort on that EUR 1.2 billion that we have stated as upstreaming for 2026.
Now Reinsurance, Manu?
Thank you, Hans, and good morning, Michael. So on Slide 37, you have an overview of the inflow of reinsurance and you see that by the end of 2025, the inflow for the third party is at a level of EUR 905 million, which is including the Triglav Prima deal, and that amount for EUR 630 million. So excluding that EUR 630 million, the inflow end of '25 would have been EUR 275 million compared to EUR 213 million end of '24, which is an increase of 29%.
So I can give you already a quick update on the renewal of 1/1/26 and there, we -- on the business that had to be renewed on January '26, we have an increase of more than 20% of business.
And your question on your capital, you know that over the strategic cycle, we decided to allocate EUR 280 million solvency capital requirement to the Reinsurance third-party business. The EUR 280 million solvency capital requirement was excluding a deal like Prima. Where are we today? Today, we are at a level of capital allocation, Solvency capital requirement allocation to reinsurance of a bit more than EUR 200 million, and it is including the Triglav deal.
And other EUR 200 million, that includes your renewals, right, the 20% rise in January?
Yes, yes.
The next question is coming from Farquhar Murray from Autonomous.
Two questions, if I may. Firstly, on the guidance for net operating profit of over EUR 1.5 billion full year '26 million, can we just walk through the bridge of the kind of full year '25, so I want that EUR 655 million? I'd have the Asia Life's tax steps, it's probably minus EUR 300 million to get to the 25% tax rate and then probably a positive of EUR 137 million to get the 0 to 10% and then a material step up from the AG minority. But I just wondered if you could give a sense of those right steps and what else are you assuming in there?
And then secondly, you commented on the competitive environment in U.K. Non-Life. I just wondered if you could extend your thinking on to the Belgium business and in particular where you might expect any softness to emerge in that business or relatively stable this year?
Thanks, Farquhar. Indeed, we gave a guidance of 1.5 -- well above, I would say, EUR 1.5 billion for this year. First of all, in that guidance, we do assume a tax rate for Asia between 0 and 10% somewhere, let's take approximately 5%. You are right that the starting base, of course, is the EUR 1,350 million, which is the right reference to look at.
For AG and the deal with BNP, we assume here closing towards the end of the first half of the year. So we do include half a year of the impact of AG in this guidance. As usual, we also assume a normal cat nat event. So that means the promise to give guidance on combined ratio which is below 93% considering a normal cat nat here. So that means worse it could go above, better like we had last year. Last year cat nat was plus 1% impact on combined ratio, it might be even a little bit lower, but also be aware, of course, that there is already some weather events in January, mainly in Portugal.
But at this moment, we are comfortable to go above the NOK 1.5 billion for the year. And as you know, in these volatile times, it is hard to give this full 12 months in advance. So we will definitely bring an update by midyear.
Then the Non-Life business from Belgium. Well, I think Belgium is, I would say, today in a very attractive situation for profitability, the market as a whole, but definitely Ageas is outperforming that market on the positive side. You have seen that the results were very good, but the impact of weather in Belgium was very low, 0.4, I think, in the combined ratio, that was a very positive cat nat here. So please assume a more normalized cat nat that we always assume for the year. At this moment, no events, I think, in Belgium or no material events yet in Belgium, but the market is profitable, is very competitive, but it is also excellently positioned to compete in that market.
So the sensitivity for the softening in the Belgian market, you cannot compare, for instance, with the U.K. market where your business is immediately impacted in Belgium. The persistency of your businesses are a lot stronger compared to the U.K. market.
What kind of tariffs you bring through at present, just as a follow-on?
Sorry, I didn't -- I missed that question.
Just as a follow-on, what kind of tariffs expectations have you for the year? Are you going to be [indiscernible] still increasing in line with inflation probably or maybe a bit softer than that?
Well, you know that in Belgium, approximately 60% of our business is immediately inflation linked. So there, I think the normal index 2% to 2.3% was inflation? .
Yes, depending on the...
yes, depending on the product that is already absorbed in the tariffication. The rest remains to be seen. For cat nat, I do not expect an increase because it was a very good year last year and the rest remains to be same.
The next question is coming from Michele Ballatore from KBW.
Yes. So 2 questions from me. So the first one is on the Asian business about your comment on the higher exposure to equity. I'm sorry, I thought in the past, you reduced this exposure, probably I missed that, but if you can clarify this point. And the second question is about the overall pricing environment in your European business, I'm talking about Non-life, so what are you observing in, let's say, since the start of the year?
Yes, the first point on the exposure in equity, maybe a few points of clarification. First and foremost, in 2024, indeed, we reduced that exposure gradually and in the course of 2025 that has been rebuilt up to the levels that we had, let's say, beginning '24, plus obviously, you had a sharp market increase. So the equity exposure certainly has gone up.
Also to note that this, in combination with the shift to participating products mostly happened, obviously, in the par portfolio, where the loss absorption capacity for that type of instrument is better. That's the only clarification I can give on that. But that indeed led to a slightly higher risk charge, obviously, on these equities in the solvency ratio.
Okay. If I look at the European continent, well, Belgium, we just spoke about on tariffs in Non-Life. So I don't think I should go a lot deeper there. U.K., we already spoke about as well. I see market analysts being relatively negative on motor in the U.K. I see predictions of combined ratios to 100% to 110% for the market, but be aware that the last few years, we have been outperforming that market and doing way better.
But as I just said in the first question, we have seen maybe that motor business bottoming out a little bit, but that is definitely on watch for the rest of the year. As for the team, it is very clear that it is all about sustaining the bottom line. We have said that esure, we should not expect contributing to that bottom line because the esure brings over '27 will go into integration costs to put the businesses together.
But we assume that we can sustain profitability in the U.K. despite the cycles we will see in tariff. Portugal, very strong recovery last year. There were 2 attention points the year before, the years before, that was healthcare on the one hand and motor on the other hand. Health care, I think we can comfortably say that profitability has been fully restored while keeping a very good persistency in the portfolio. And I think that has all to do with a very strong customer proposition that we have with Medis in the Portuguese market. Motor situation is improving.
I would say we are not yet at the end. We have seen in motor, some negative impact on top line from our pricing discipline. But there, I think the market is still on the path to full profitability. The work is not fully done yet. But again, in summary, Portugal over '25, significant improvement compared to the years before, and we expect that to continue in '26.
And then the last one is Türkiye. Well, you know the situation in Türkiye in Non-Life. It is very difficult with inflation. I think the solvency of that company is stable. We hang in there with that business. But overall, I would say, the profit from AKSigorta is not material in the overall European Non-Life business. And as you know, that is more than compensated by the excellent performance that we have on Ageas Life in the Turkish market.
Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to return the conference call back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
Thank you. Before moving to the conclusions, I want to take a moment to express my sincere appreciation to Filip Coremans for his 20 years of exceptional service at Ageas. Filip has been instrumental in shaping the group's journey and closing the Fortis settlements, which marked a historic milestone for the group.
This leadership has been central to our growth story in Asia and to building the strong and valued partnerships that underpin our presence in the region. I would also like to extend my warm congratulations to Karolien Gielen on her expanded responsibilities, bringing together the Managing Director Asia activities with the business development and her leadership will create new opportunities for Ageas.
To end this call, let me summarize the main conclusions. Next to our continued top line growth, our operations delivered an improved underwriting profitability, a clear reflection of the strength of our underlying business. The net operating result for 2025 was driven by an excellent performance in Non-Life and a solid Life result, further supported by a one-off tax benefit in China.
The strong 2025 results lead to a total dividend per share of EUR 3.75, representing more than 7% growth over 2025 and we anticipate receiving significantly higher cash upstream of EUR 1.2 billion in 2026. The successful first year of the Elevate27 strategic cycle, upgrading our financial targets twice, increasing holding free cash flow targets to over EUR 2.6 billion and our shareholder renovation target to more than EUR 2.2 billion.
And to conclude, 2025 was a transformational year for Ageas, and we are well on track with the integration of esure and the closing of the AG acquisition.
With these closing remarks, I would like to bring this call to an end. If you should have outstanding questions, don't hesitate to contact our IR team. Thank you for your time, and I wish you a very nice day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.
ageas — ageas SA/NV, AG Insurance SA/NV - M&A Call
1. Management Discussion
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm here in the room with Wim Guilliams, our CFO; and Heidi Delobelle, Managing Director, Belgium and CEO of AG Insurance.
Thank you all for joining us on this investor call. Today, I'm very proud that after the acquisition of esure earlier this year, I can announce a second milestone transaction that will reshape our growth. Ageas will acquire full ownership of AG Insurance, the company that lies at the origin of the group that Ageas is today.
I'm equally pleased by the recognition we get from our largest shareholder, BNP Paribas, in support of our strategic focus, both at the corporate level and at the level of AG Insurance. This is illustrated by the step-up of BNP Paribas in our shareholdership, their respect for our autonomy and their commitment to reconfirm the long-term distribution agreement of AG's products in Belgium to BNP Paribas Fortis.
The agreement that I can announce today is setting us on a promising course for future growth for both AG and Ageas, and it accelerates our journey towards delivering on our Elevate27 ambitions.
Let's first take a look at the most impactful part, our agreement to acquire full ownership of AG Insurance as well as the rights to underwrite the existing 25% quota share from 2027 onwards. You may remember that currently, the quota share is split between Ageas and BNP Paribas Cardif in line with the shareholding in AG.
Let me take a moment to reflect on the achievements of AG Insurance. AG is the market leader in the Belgian insurance market, being #1 in life, and since 2022, the leader in non-life as well. We are proud to serve half of Belgium's families and 1/3 of its companies backed by a dedicated team of talented employees.
One of AG's greatest strengths is the unique multichannel distribution approach. As one of the first companies to introduce bancassurance in the Belgian market, the partnership between AG and BNP Paribas Fortis goes back many years. The reconfirmation of the long-term distribution agreement between both companies does, however, not change the multi-distribution model that AG is known for. Consistency is key, and that's why AG leads and outperforms in both the bank and broker distribution channels.
AG's financial performance speaks for itself. Year after year, AG has delivered consistent and profitable growth, outpacing the sector even in challenging times with best-in-class cost and combined ratios, robust solvency and stable margins. In the life book, these are very much defined by the diversified and solid EUR 72 billion assets AG manages.
Taking full ownership of our core home market entity provides us strategic flexibility and strengthens our foundation as a group. This acquisition enhances further our ability to leverage the exceptional distribution, technical and operational expertise of AG Insurance across the entire Ageas Group and will allow to unlock further group synergies.
AG is to Ageas the solid foundation with a stable performance and high cash conversion. Obtaining full ownership strengthens our core with an asset we fully know without any execution risk. This makes the financials even more attractive, and they are also quite straightforward.
Our group net operating result will increase with 1/3 of the current contribution of Belgium, some EUR 160 million to EUR 175 million and 1/3 of their contribution to the reinsurance segment, some EUR 15 million. Thanks to the full ownership of AG, together with the esure acquisition, we will further increase the share of the more mature entities in the group's profile.
We are now in the comfortable position to continue our successful growth story in the Asian segment in the right balance with a solid European-based businesses. Also, in the longer run, we see a contribution to the net operating result of 1/3 from Asia and 2/3 from Belgium, Europe and reinsurance combined. And whereas the benefits of the esure acquisition to our net operating result and holding free cash flow will only emerge after the integration process, meaning as from 2028, the benefits from this transaction will be visible immediately after closing.
This gives also a clear run through to the recurring cash upstream as the net operating result of AG translates one-on-one into cash, and this will be uplifting our recurring cash upstream substantially as from next year. Our Belgian operations will continue to be a reliable foundation for the group's shareholder remuneration and increasing our cash for investments in future growth.
The contribution of the Asia segment would further reduce to 13% until the moment that these companies mature further and they can sustainably increase their payout ratios as well. The transaction enables us to boost our holding free cash flow by 13% over the Elevate27 cycle and our holding free cash flow per share by approximately 7% to 8%.
The acquisition is also capital efficient. The equity placement to BNP Paribas Cardif at EUR 60 per share and the recognition of the minority part in the own funds of AG under Solvency II more than compensate the impact of the EUR 1.9 billion to be paid to BNP Paribas Fortis. This allows in a solvency neutral way to finance a significant part of the transaction with cash and available financing capacity, delivering a very attractive levered return on investment capital of 15% to 16%. So the transaction is solvency neutral and carries no integration risk, ensures stable, diversified and cash-generative results, exactly what we envisioned within our Elevate27 strategy.
While BNP Paribas has agreed to sell us their stake in AG Insurance, they will not abandon the ship. On the contrary, we are forging the long-term bancassurance collaboration between the leading Belgian insurer and the leading Belgian bank with a 15-year distribution agreement. Both parties are fully committed to further strengthen the leading position of AG within the local market, and this duration provides us with a solid time horizon for joint investments. And we will also collaborate more closely on the asset management side.
Next to the existing collaboration in the unit-linked portfolio, AG and BNP Paribas Asset Management are also entering into a long-term partnership, leveraging BNP Paribas Asset Management's new offering for insurance and pension funds following its recent integration with AXA Investment Management. Through the equity placement, BNP Paribas will hold 22.5% stake in Ageas, and they also hold a 1.6% stake to the shares that serve as collateral for cash, thus consolidating their position as our largest shareholder.
With this step-up in our shareholdership, BNP clearly expresses their commitment to our continued development and support our future growth. In line with good Belgian corporate governance principles, we formalized a relationship agreement that will govern the relationship with BNP as important shareholder and business partner.
To be fully transparent towards all our stakeholders, we will publish it when it has received the necessary regulatory approvals, but the key elements of the 5-year automatic renewable agreement are that we will support BNP's candidate for Board representation and that BNP Paribas Group will limit their shareholder in Ageas to 25%, minus 1 share, respecting the autonomy and the growth strategy of the group.
As mentioned before, the benefits of this transaction will emerge already as from closing with no need for any integration efforts or costs to be made. And so this strategically important step allows us to upgrade our Elevate27 financial targets for the second time this year. The additional contribution to our net operating results will lead to an earnings per share of EUR 8 to EUR 8.5 by the end of 2027 compared to EUR 6.8 in 2024, respecting our commitment of a 6% to 8% growth over the cycle.
We increased our shareholder remuneration from over EUR 2 billion to over EUR 2.2 billion, up 10% from earlier guidance, all while keeping our promise of annual 6% dividend per share growth and underpinned by an increase in the holding free cash flow target from over EUR 2.3 billion to over EUR 2.6 billion, up 13% from earlier guidance.
The additional cash flows coming from AG will play a key role in delivering against these targets and further build comfortable free cash position to invest in our future growth. This message clearly demonstrates our confidence and ambition for the next years.
This is the message I wanted to share with you, and we now go over to your Q&A. I propose you raise your hands, and we do it in the right order to be able to give every time participant time to pose their questions.
I see we have a question from Michael Huttner. Michael, could you unmute yourself and put your camera on? Michael? No. He is gone.
Okay, let's move to Farooq then. Farooq, go ahead, put your camera on, your sound, and we can take your questions.
2. Question Answer
Firstly, I just want to understand the 7% to 8% holdco free cash flow accretion. So you have a 13% increase in the overall cumulative, and obviously, your share count is going up by 10%. So can you talk about the shape of that and whether there's any one-off element? Does that 7% to 8% holdco cash flow sustainable with that accretion in the per share amount?
Secondly, could you talk a little bit about group synergies, what you mean by that? Obviously, I can see that there will be structurally quite a lot of potential synergies. Can you talk about what that is?
And then, in terms of the additional cash that you have, obviously, you're getting a more balanced cash generation in the group. You'll get less questions about the contribution from Asia. What are you going to do with the surplus that you're going to build up? You mentioned that this is better for M&A. So if you could talk about that directly.
Okay. I'll give the first 2 questions to Wim. I'll come back with you on the surplus capital.
Farooq, thanks for your questions. Indeed, we are disclosing 2 metrics. On the one hand, the holding free cash flow, which is a euro amount over the Elevate27 period, so over the 3 years, and we show what this transaction has as a positive impact on that amount. That's a plus 13%. The holding free cash flow per share is an estimated impact for '27. We also wanted to disclose that.
Now, what's going to happen in '27? In '27, we will get the full cash upstream of the Belgium segment. Now, you also will have seen that the quota share is transferring for the first time in the net operating result in '27. So it's contributing in '28. So the effect that we have in the holding free cash flow in '27 is only the cash upstream from the Belgium segment because we wanted to give you a bit of information what's happening in '27.
Of course, we will have some impact of synergies, where Hans will come back to or I can come back to. And of course, we are also financing this part with cash reserves, finance facilities and the flexibility that we have in the debt capital market. So it's also logical that we take that impact of that foregone revenues on cash or that debt cost into account. So if you do that calculation, then on the total number of shares that we will have in '27, that explains the 7% to 8%. The 13% is a cumulative amount over '25, '26, '27 on the holding free cash flow. So that's a cumulative amount on that total that we have.
On the synergies, of course, in the strategic rationale, you see that we were able to create much more strategic flexibility, which Hans has alluded to, what we would -- could do in the future. But today, it's still early days to put a number to quantify that impact. So that we have not taken into account in any calculations. Of course, we have included some synergies, which we could identify at this stage. One of them is what we call this cash fungibility. So that means we are able to have our cash guardrail, managed at the total group level, so not company per company with some cash pooling, and that will contribute an amount.
And the other one is a small amount that we have on cost synergies. At the corporate centers, we have, of course, cost levels, which are linked to the stewardship of the group, which are linked to developing cross-entity initiatives. Those will stay. It's very logical that you don't have synergy benefits, but we have, of course, a bit of operational synergies and some support activities.
What we have taken in the numbers is an amount of EUR 10 million, where 2/3 is coming from that cash fungibility and 1/3 is coming from the cost. But as mentioned, the whole strategic rationale, strategic flexibility, there, it's too early days to see what that will contribute in the numbers.
Okay. Thank you, Wim. And on the surplus capital, Farooq, indeed, we will go to, I think, a more comfortable position between holding free cash flow and shareholder remuneration. And we have some excess there of approximately 15% going forward. The purpose of this capital, I would say, has not really changed. You know that we always remain available for in-market consolidation if there are opportunities that arise in the countries where we operate and where we can move to a top 3, top 5 position.
We also, of course, look at the development of reinsurance. I said in the half year results that for 2027, almost there is no request to further increase the capital commitment for building reinsurance. We have ample capacity available to underwrite what we want to underwrite.
And then last but not least, of course, as you know, if we have excess capital and no immediate opportunity to put the capital at work, then the share buyback remains an option. Here, I can already confirm before we make the relationship agreement public, but in the relationship agreement, we have also subscribed to the commitment by BNP if the company would like to bring a share buyback to the market that they will be supportive. So in that sense, there is no change for the other shareholders of Ageas.
Thank you, Farooq. Michael will try again, and I'll put your camera and your mic on.
Well done for -- it's a lovely deal. Just on the cash, can you remind me the -- up to EUR 2.2 billion and the EUR 2.3 billion up to EUR 2.6 billion, that effectively is only '27, right, if I understand it correctly. Because if the deal closes Q2 2026, you get virtually no cash benefit from Ageas or from AG, and you don't have time to raise your dividend. Am I wrong? In other words, the benefit is -- of your higher numbers is all 2027. That would be my first question.
The second is, I heard you say, yes, we'll have room for more deals. But I'm assuming that Ageas is off the table, that KBC is better placed.
And then the last one is just a kind of a sub-question on reinsurance. I noted that Taiping had reinsured itself. I thought it was a little bit odd, but it may be -- but maybe you can provide us with the kind of number for awful disaster in Hong Kong.
Okay. Maybe Wim.
Yes. On the first question, on the impact on our financial targets, Michael, you have to see it's '25, '26, '27. We talk here about cash. What you will get next year, '26, and so also '27 is a dividend upstream of AG in full. And you will have, of course, a dividend payment on the new shares that are being issued in the market. That's the assumption underlying. So you have 2 years contributing to that difference, that uplift that you see there. So that's explaining the difference between the 2 updated financial targets. So it's 2 years...
Two years, not...
Yes.
Okay. Two years, 2 years. So effectively, in 2026, although the deal closes in Q2, the full benefit flows through in cash both for shareholders -- both for yourself and for your shareholders.
Yes. In cash, yes. Net operating result, it's indeed to take the pro rata of the year into account. So what will happen on net operating result, the closing date -- only from the closing date onwards, we will have the uplift in our net operating results. So that is still a bit unknown because we don't know where it will close over Q2, but that will be the impact on the net operating result. So there's a difference between net operating result and cash impact.
Okay. Michael, on your question regarding Ageas, I would say no change. I would say, on the file itself, the government has not decided formally what the next steps and when the next steps could happen. You mentioned KBC, also Belfius, we know is one of the potential participants in such a process. We, as Ageas, have already expressed our interest to potentially in -- participate in that process. We will now become a top 15 European insurance group.
And I think a country like Belgium in a consolidated European market deserves to have a player in that position. And I believe that potentially in addition of Ageas to the issuance, the main insurance group in Belgium definitely also has important strategic benefits both for Ageas as well as for Belgium as a country. But as such, I would say, no change. Of course, I'm very pleased with having AG as related party, a 100% Belgian company, and Ageas Group, that can with autonomy develop its future growth story.
And then your last question was on the Hong Kong fires. To be clear, as you know, Taiping Insurance is a lead insurer on this fire. We are not -- as you remember, in the partnership with Taiping Insurance, we have partnership with Taiping Life, with Taiping Re, with Taiping Asset Management. Of course, there is some relationship between Taiping Insurance and Taiping Re and consequentially Ageas Re. What I can tell you now on the available information, which is not yet full, but at this moment, we do not expect an impact on the guidance we have given you for the group towards the end of the year.
Okay. Let's move to Nasib. Nasib, I will open your camera and your mic.
Maybe -- I don't think you guys have given a firepower number, and maybe you can give us a range given you haven't said how you're going to fund the remaining EUR 800 million. Just looking for how much M&A firepower you have in terms of debt capacity and equity raise.
Second question on the 15-year partnership. It says on Slide 9, it's 5-year renewables. So I don't think the 15-year partnership is part of that. But just to confirm, what the 5-year renewable relationship agreement is? And what is the 15-year bancassurance partnership?
And then finally, on the holding company cash, you don't have a target at the moment, but given you've got AG 100% ownership coming through, U.K. is 100% owned, so that's kind of the majority of the business you have control over. Would you look to give a holding company cash range going forward, given you've got control potentially coming through for AG as well?
You can take the first and the last one.
Yes. I will take the first and the last one. So on the firepower, we came into the year, and then, we -- at the full-year result '24, we indicated that we had a possibility for a debt capacity of EUR 4.5 billion. Half year, of course, after the issuer, and that's more outlook '26, we guided to EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million. As this transaction is solvency neutral, you can take that amount still into account, EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million. That's before the whole financing of the transaction.
The financing of transaction, we will look at the existing cash reserves. We will look at financing facilities, and we will look at the flexibility that we have in the debt capital market. So the debt capacity is at EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million going for '26.
On the cash reserves as such, we have not given a cash guardrail number. We will not do that neither going forward. But of course, internally, we manage that like any financially disciplined company that we also know that in stress scenarios, we must be able to pay the dividend, we must be able to fund the holding cost.
What is the nice add-on from this transaction is, of course, and that is what we call cash fungibility in the slides. We can, of course, start putting cash pooling in place, which means where in the past, we needed a cash guardrail for AG, we needed a cash guardrail for Ageas, we can start looking at that at a group level at a consolidated level. So that will offer more flexibility on the cash side going forward. But we will not -- if you allow me, not disclose the fixed number as a cash guardrail because I know that I will get a lot of questions going forward, always if it deviates a bit.
Now, for the cash reserves, I think it's important to look at H1 slide, the last slide that we disclosed because the H1 results were, of course, influenced by the whole esure transaction. The fact that we had already some funding in place, we didn't do the closing of the acquisition. But the last slide of the deck gives you a pro forma cash situation, which was after esure and Saga at EUR 1.1 billion. So you have the EUR 1.1 billion, you have the debt guidance that I give you. But be aware that cash fungibility allows us to be much more flexible with the cash reserves going forward.
Okay. I will ask Heidi to give you first some information on the dimension of the bancassurance agreement.
Yes. So as BNP Paribas Fortis will no longer be a direct shareholder of AG, we thought it was very important to reconfirm our long-term nature of the bancassurance collaboration because today, it was -- there was no end to the contract within 3-year pre-notice. So now, we are formalizing the collaboration in a 15 years' renewable bancassurance agreement. And so yes, having that kind of long-term relationship between both market leaders in Belgium at the banking side and the insurance side, it's really a full commitment to further strengthen the leading bancassurance that we have in Belgium. So we are now -- we have drafted a term sheet with the core principles, and then, we will renew the whole bank agreement to be more future-proof for the future.
And the relationship agreement is a 5-year agreement that will also automatically be extended into perpetuity with a 12 months' notice period after the 5 years. So if BNP would like to revisit the relationship agreement, we will know that 12 months in advance. Of course, the relationship agreement can always be reviewed also in the first 5 years, but then that will be subject to the approval of the Board of Directors of Ageas. So I think that is also good in the mindset of the partnership.
Last, I want to repeat that we will make the full relationship agreement public at the moment of closing.
Okay. And then, I see there's still a question from Marcus Rivaldi.
Marcus, I will open your camera and mic. Didn't work.
Maybe he can try himself.
Marcus, it doesn't seem to -- well, according to the system, you are -- your mic and camera are on, but I see it's not the case. Maybe you could try yourself.
Okay. I'm sorry, early Monday morning. But anyway, thank you very much for allowing me to ask a quick question today. So look, congratulations on this transaction. It's really obvious what it does. You're strengthening and deepening the relationships between the 2 organizations. It also clarifies, I think, the relationship quite nicely. So one question I had was in relation to maybe the BNP Fortis -- Paribas Fortis cash transaction, which is still outstanding, which remains a source of, should we say, complexity in the relationship between BNP and yourself. And I was wondering whether as part of this transaction, you thought of addressing that -- those securities as well.
Marcus, at this moment, we have not addressed this as part of this transaction. So -- I mean, of course, we are in constant dialogue, but it's something that needs to be initiated by BNP Paribas because it's on the balance sheet of BNP Paribas Fortis, as you know. We are a linked party because we have the RPN(i), which is linked, which is absorbing the market volatility. But it has not been addressed as part of this transaction.
You're muted again.
We don't hear you anymore, Marcus. No. Maybe you can come back later if you -- yes.
Yes. I'll see that. In the meantime...
Sorry. I beg your pardon. I'm sorry, apologies. So is there any reason why you didn't decide to address this part of a wider relationship? I appreciate you haven't, but any reason why you didn't?
There were already many things to be discussed to arrive at this transaction that we announced. So it's just -- it's focused on the most important things to have cleared out with BNP Paribas.
And I see Farooq has a follow-up.
I hope you can hear me.
Yes, we do.
Perfect. Yes. I just wanted to follow up on a few things quickly. So going back to the 7% to 8% per share holdco free cash flow accretion by 2027, I just want to make sure -- I'm sorry, this is a really stupid question. But if you get -- if you got, for example, 8% accretion, hypothetically, that means your cash has gone up by 18% because your share count is going up by 10%, so the net-net. So is that the right way to think about it? So roughly 17% to 18% increase in the amount of holdco free cash flow as a result of better upstream but also quota share. That's question one.
And then question 2 is maybe related, can you explain what you mean by cash pooling? Does this basically mean you don't really care about the holdco anymore because you have this lack of restriction for your mature businesses? Just want to understand that because obviously, you still have cash flow traps and guardrails around the Asian business and where you have partnerships. I just want to understand exactly what you mean by cash pooling.
Okay. On the first one, maybe it's easier if I also make the link with a few numbers that have been disclosed in the deck. So you have what we see as a net operating result uplift between EUR 160 million to EUR 175 million, which is something that will flow into the cash upstream in '27.
Next, you have a bit, that amount of EUR 10 million of the group synergies, which will have an impact on the cost at the group level. And then, of course, we need to fund this transaction because there is EUR 1.1 billion of shares. That means that there is still EUR 800 million of other funding sources. And on this, as we're indicating, it will be mostly out of cash reserves, finance facilities. And even the flexibility in the debt market, you will have a kind of a funding cost, where I will take EUR 20 million.
If you take that and you divide that due to the -- on the total numbers of shares, then you will come to the 7% to 8% uplift. What you don't have is, of course, the fact that we will have also the quota share from the year '27 onwards, but that will flow in the net operating result. Cash upstream is only from '28 onwards.
So the quota share will create higher holdco free cash flow per share.
Yes, also, but that's not in '27 because that will only run through in '28 because for the running year '27, we will still have Cardif having 25% of that quota share. From '27 onwards, we will take the 25% part. But that's not in that up of 7% to 8% holding free cash flows per share.
And of course, we can't take fully 25% of your non-life earnings because some of -- it didn't include the reserves when you did the deal, but it will be roughly 25% of the earnings, up to.
Yes, it will be -- it's a 40% quota share, so it will be 25% of the 40%. So you could say it's a 10% of the earnings, the insurance service result, that will be run through. But indeed, as you say, there will be a prior year release, which will not be transferred immediately, that will be built up over time.
The idea I think with the numbers, and then, if you take the numbers of shares, of course, we do holding free cash flow on the dividend entitled shares. But there you will also get EUR 18.5 million on top, and that's the '27 numbers -- expected '27. But as I said, both free cash flow plus 13% is, of course, 2 years, '26, '27, created from the cash upstream and the underflows that I mentioned. So that's a euro number.
On your second question, what does cash pooling mean? It means indeed that if you think about cash guardrails, we can now do them also from a consolidated basis because the cash pooling will allow that you can do a stress test combined. And the guardrail is influenced normally by those stress tests. So that means you have flexibility because you can look at from a diversified perspective. So this means that going forward, our internal cash guardrail, which I will not disclose, can be relaxed.
So that means you can -- what we see as your holdco cash balance, what you're saying is that can go really low. It doesn't matter because there's more cash that you pulled.
From a group perspective, that's what that means, cash fungibility, yes.
Okay. And then I see there's another question from Michael. And I hope I...
Yes, yes. It's worked. I had 3, but they're really kind of an opportunity because -- yes, so the first one, can you remind us of the terms of the cashless deal? I wasn't involved originally. I think this dates back to 2009 or something. So maybe just -- because I know there's always this noncash item coming through the accounts at the group level, but I've never looked at the underlying how it works.
And the second, AXA did a kind of deep dive on its various businesses a while back. And of course, Belgium is part of that. And they signaled their interest in growing the life guaranteed business in -- or life traditional business with limited guarantees in Belgium. Can you remind us a little bit of the state of the market and whether that's affected the margins you see or the competitive pressures or anything?
So I'll do first. I will give you the highlights, Michael. If you want to have more details, I think the IR team can give you all the details. It's indeed an instrument of 2009, which was issued at that moment by Fortis. Now, it's an instrument issued on the balance sheet of BNP Paribas Fortis. So balance sheet-wise, you see it as a liability on the balance sheet of BNP Paribas Fortis. But it was as co-obligor. It was also Fortis Holding, which is now Ageas SA/NV. So that's why we are co-obligor of that cash that are outstanding.
Now, this is a bit collateralized. So that is also on the asset side of the bank shares detained of Ageas. But of course, you can understand that they were at that moment at a much higher price than they are today. Yes. And so on the asset side, you will find these collateralized equities shares of Ageas, you will have a bit of a cash part and you will have the RPN(i) because what was agreed at issuing was that the market volatility, which is an accounting volatility was taken on the balance sheet of Fortis Holding, being now Ageas SA/NV, and that's the famous RPN(i), which is taken out of the net operating result. But it starts with being an instrument on the balance sheet of BNP Paribas Fortis. But if you want more details, I think the IR colleagues can explain it in detail and guide you through that. Yes.
Heidi, the life market in Belgium.
Yes. Maybe about our life expectations for the Belgium market and for AG, especially, so first of all, a very important part of our business in life is group life. And there, you see already a natural growth because it's driven by the salary inflation. And it's also promoted by the government more and more, the second pillar. So there we see nice perspectives for the group life business.
For the life contracts in the market of the self-employed clients, there, I think, the growth will be more modest because there were some fiscal uncertainties linked to the Belgium budgetary difficulties. But then, on the life investment market, we are now back in a normalized yield curve, where we can give, again, attractive returns to the clients. So there, we are growing now fast, both in unit-linked and guaranteed. Before, it was more in unit-linked. Now, we see that the guaranteed business is again very attractive. So we think that it can be a bit volatile, but that there are nice perspectives in the growth for life.
And maybe one extra is that we see that aging is going very fast also in Belgium. And it's one of the strategic drivers of our Elevate27 strategy, where we have projects in place to come with new initiatives and product design, customer journey and initiatives to keep the capitals that come into maturity more in-house than that they leave the company. So there as well, we see nice future growth opportunities.
Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, let me give you some closing words. Taking full ownership of AG Insurance is fully aligned with Ageas strategic priorities on Elevate27. We can today announce to you a capital-efficient transaction with a strong strategic rationale combined with attractive financials. And let me sum them up once more for you.
We can conclude this transaction at a price that will generate a 15% to 16% levered return on invested capital with an immediate impact on earnings that are one-on-one converted in recurring cash upstream and creating more flexibility in cash deployment. It tilts our company profile again a bit more towards consolidated, profitable and cash-generating entities in more mature markets, stabilizing the group's results and making them more predictable. And the benefits are emerging in a really short term, which means that already in the first year of Elevate27, we can upgrade our financial targets for this strategic cycle for the second time.
These financials already put us in a stronger position to deliver on our Elevate27 ambitions. And furthermore, we get support for future growth and autonomy as a group. At AG level, we will further develop the successful bancassurance franchise. This agreement marks an important step for Ageas, highlighting our partnership and shared growth objectives supported by strong financials. With solid fundamentals, a drive for innovation and an unwavering commitment to our clients and partners, we are ready for the future.
Thank you for dialing in. Should you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations teams, and I wish you a pleasant day.
ageas — ageas SA/NV, AG Insurance SA/NV - M&A Call
Financial data from ageas
Revenue
Revenue is the sum of all sales generated by a company, e.g. for its products or services.
Revenue (TTM) metric explainedDirect Costs
Direct costs are the costs incurred directly in connection with the manufacture of the product or service.
Gross Profit
Gross Profit indicates how much of the revenue remains in the company after deducting direct production costs. If the percentage share of sales is calculated, this is referred to as the gross margin.
Gross Profit metric explainedSelling and Administrative Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) include all expenses for marketing and sales as well as the general administration of the company.
Research and Development Expense
Research and development costs (R&D) provide information on how much the company invests in the research and development of its products. The costs are particularly interesting as a percentage of revenue and in comparison to direct competitors.
EBITDA
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The EBITDA margin is calculated as a percentage of sales.
Depreciation and Amortization
Depreciation represents reductions in the value of the company's assets (e.g. due to wear and tear on machinery).
EBIT (Operating Income)
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) is the company's profit before interest and taxes, also known as the operating income. The EBIT Margin is calculated as a percentage of sales at
.
Net Profit
Net Profit represents the profit or loss after deduction of all costs.
Net Profit metric explainedStocksGuide Premium
| Jun '26 |
+/-
%
|
||
| Revenue & Premiums | 11,138 11,138 |
23%
23%
100%
|
|
| - Policy Benefits | 7,705 7,705 |
28%
28%
69%
|
|
| Underwriting Margin | 3,433 3,433 |
13%
13%
31%
|
|
| - SG&A | - - |
-
-
|
|
| - Other operating expenses | 2,125 2,125 |
23%
23%
19%
|
|
| EBITDA | 1,716 1,716 |
5%
5%
15%
|
|
| - Depreciation and Amortization | 408 408 |
25%
25%
4%
|
|
| EBIT (Operating Income) EBIT | 1,308 1,308 |
1%
1%
12%
|
|
| - Interest Expense | 284 284 |
23%
23%
3%
|
|
| - Tax Expense | 262 262 |
5%
5%
2%
|
|
| Net Profit | 1,881 1,881 |
63%
63%
17%
|
|
In millions EUR.
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Company Profile
ageas SA/NV engages in the provision of life and non-life insurance, investments, and real estate. It operates through the following segments: Belgium, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Asia, Reinsurance, and General Account. The Belgium segment offers life and non-life products to private individuals and small to medium enterprises under the name of AG insurance. The United Kingdom segment provides non-life insurance solutions and related life protection businesses, with personal and commercial line markets. The Continental Europe segment consists of European insurance activities excluding Belgium and the United Kingdom. The Asia segment is organized in the form of joint ventures with local partners and financial institutions in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Thailand, and India. The General Account segment comprises activities not related to the core Insurance business, such as group finance and other holding activities. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
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| Head office | Belgium |
| CEO | Mr. Cuyper |
| Employees | 19,958 |
| Founded | 1990 |
| Website | www.ageas.com |


